text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
What is the chance that there will be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers by 2031? Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers by 2031? Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first manned spacecraft will touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's Moon, or Mars by 2075? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050 will be 215k? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that life expectancy at birth for both sexes will reach 60 years in all countries by 2049? Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](http... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India will not become a World Bank high-income country by 2050? India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.
GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [re... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India will not become a World Bank high-income country by 2050? India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.
GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [re... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that life expectancy at birth for both sexes will reach 60 years in all countries by 2049? Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](http... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that life expectancy at birth for both sexes will reach 60 years in all countries by 2049? Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](http... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will have micropayments by 2026? One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wire... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea will have a McDonald's by 2046? There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will have micropayments by 2026? One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wire... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a DUI will be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car by 2026? There's much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a DUI will be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car by 2026? There's much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea will have a McDonald's by 2046? There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a DUI will be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car by 2026? There's much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea will have a McDonald's by 2046? There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India will not become a World Bank high-income country by 2050? India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.
GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [re... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be 440.7 ppm in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Earth's carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration reach 500 PPM before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/)
----
O... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will have micropayments by 2026? One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wire... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will achieve an annual GDP growth rate of 6.07% before 2030? [The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984.
The Gros... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Haiti will not become an upper middle-income country by January 1, 2050? The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Ba... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a robot poker player will win a significant live (not online) competition by 2039? Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.
Poker is also a ch... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Haiti will not become an upper middle-income country by January 1, 2050? The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Ba... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Haiti will not become an upper middle-income country by January 1, 2050? The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Ba... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will achieve an annual GDP growth rate of 6.07% before 2030? [The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984.
The Gros... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a robot poker player will win a significant live (not online) competition by 2039? Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.
Poker is also a ch... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that image recognition will be made robust against unrestricted adversaries by 2026? Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will achieve an annual GDP growth rate of 6.07% before 2030? [The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984.
The Gros... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability will turn out to be 3.26×1016? A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that image recognition will be made robust against unrestricted adversaries by 2026? Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability will turn out to be 3.26×1016? A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that image recognition will be made robust against unrestricted adversaries by 2026? Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy will conclude by 2057? [Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Collatz Conjecture will be resolved by 2196? Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
```
collatz(n) =
if (n is 1) return 1
else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2)
else return collatz(3n + 1)
```
where input n is a positive integer.
The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wiki... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Collatz Conjecture will be resolved by 2196? Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
```
collatz(n) =
if (n is 1) return 1
else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2)
else return collatz(3n + 1)
```
where input n is a positive integer.
The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wiki... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a robot poker player will win a significant live (not online) competition by 2039? Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.
Poker is also a ch... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an artificial intelligence catastrophe will happen by 2035? The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catas... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the halting problem for the Collatz Program will be resolved by 2093? In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.
For completeness and sy... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the closest known Black Hole will be 1.03k light years away in 2031? [Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not eve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability will turn out to be 3.26×1016? A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy will conclude by 2057? [Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy will conclude by 2057? [Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the closest known Black Hole will be 1.03k light years away in 2031? [Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not eve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the closest known Black Hole will be 1.03k light years away in 2031? [Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not eve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 70.3M humans will be uploaded in any 5-year period if a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100? Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an artificial intelligence catastrophe will happen by 2035? The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catas... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an artificial intelligence catastrophe will happen by 2035? The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catas... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the halting problem for the Collatz Program will be resolved by 2093? In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.
For completeness and sy... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Collatz Conjecture will be resolved by 2196? Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
```
collatz(n) =
if (n is 1) return 1
else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2)
else return collatz(3n + 1)
```
where input n is a positive integer.
The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wiki... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the halting problem for the Collatz Program will be resolved by 2093? In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.
For completeness and sy... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the human brain will be successfully emulated in full by 2040? Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the human brain will be successfully emulated in full by 2040? Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 70.3M humans will be uploaded in any 5-year period if a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100? Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the human brain will be successfully emulated in full by 2040? Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NASA's SLS will first launch a person to the Moon by Mar 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NASA's SLS will first launch a person to the Moon by Mar 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 70.3M humans will be uploaded in any 5-year period if a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100? Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will have 4.16k nuclear warheads in 2029 if it does not pursue nuclear disarmament? The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold W... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NASA's SLS will first launch a person to the Moon by Mar 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will have 4.16k nuclear warheads in 2029 if it does not pursue nuclear disarmament? The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold W... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, what is the chance that 1 hour of subjective run time will cost 1.60M? Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will have 4.16k nuclear warheads in 2029 if it does not pursue nuclear disarmament? The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold W... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, what is the chance that 1 hour of subjective run time will cost 1.60M? Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, what is the chance that 1 hour of subjective run time will cost 1.60M? Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 114k deaths in the US will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in 2035? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?
](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiot... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 114k deaths in the US will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in 2035? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?
](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiot... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global adult literacy rate will reach 95% by 2048? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 114k deaths in the US will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in 2035? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?
](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiot... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.18 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029? The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/file... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 45.1 billion biological humans alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will pass the laugh test by 2029? In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:
> ...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.18 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029? The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/file... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global adult literacy rate will reach 95% by 2048? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Elon Musk will have a brain-machine interface surgically implanted into his brain by 2036? **When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?**
This question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Mu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Elon Musk will have a brain-machine interface surgically implanted into his brain by 2036? **When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?**
This question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Mu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will pass the laugh test by 2029? In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:
> ...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes will be born by 2033? At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying h... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 45.1 billion biological humans alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.18 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029? The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/file... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will pass the laugh test by 2029? In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:
> ...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes will be born by 2033? At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying h... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century by 2055? The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragn... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global adult literacy rate will reach 95% by 2048? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century by 2055? The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragn... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that any country will have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years by 2046? As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https:/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that any country will have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years by 2046? As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https:/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average American employee will work 33.6 hours per week in 2030? According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated revenue generated by the U.S. market for clean meat in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD? [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $2... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Elon Musk will have a brain-machine interface surgically implanted into his brain by 2036? **When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?**
This question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Mu... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated revenue generated by the U.S. market for clean meat in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD? [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $2... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated revenue generated by the U.S. market for clean meat in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD? [As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $2... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century by 2055? The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragn... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes will be born by 2033? At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying h... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on January 1, 2028, out of a total of 10.9k? According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):
> Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-perform... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average American employee will work 33.6 hours per week in 2030? According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that any country will have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years by 2046? As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https:/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on January 1, 2028, out of a total of 10.9k? According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):
> Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-perform... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average American employee will work 33.6 hours per week in 2030? According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on January 1, 2028, out of a total of 10.9k? According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):
> Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-perform... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.