text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
What is the chance that there will be 45.1 billion biological humans alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election with a probability of 0.432? Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.
Imagine you are *magically* transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election with a probability of 0.432? Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.
Imagine you are *magically* transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election with a probability of 0.432? Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.
Imagine you are *magically* transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated value of the US market for plant-based meat in the year ending in April 2028? Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a restaurant will first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper by Feb 2027? The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a restaurant will first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper by Feb 2027? The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated value of the US market for plant-based meat in the year ending in April 2028? Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated value of the US market for plant-based meat in the year ending in April 2028? Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool will attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours before Sep 15, 2025? [51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.
[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool will attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours before Sep 15, 2025? [51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.
[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat will be 12.3 in the calendar year 2029? In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burge... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest retail price, in 2019USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat in 2026 will be 7.52? In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest retail price, in 2019USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat in 2026 will be 7.52? In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a restaurant will first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper by Feb 2027? The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 17.8 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 20... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 17.8 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 20... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool will attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours before Sep 15, 2025? [51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.
[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat will be 12.3 in the calendar year 2029? In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burge... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Bering Strait crossing will not be completed by Sep 2040? A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Pe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Bering Strait crossing will not be completed by Sep 2040? A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Pe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Bering Strait crossing will not be completed by Sep 2040? A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Pe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 43.3 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouilla... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat will be 12.3 in the calendar year 2029? In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burge... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest retail price, in 2019USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat in 2026 will be 7.52? In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 17.8 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 20... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 43.3 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouilla... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 43.3 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouilla... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 100 people or more will be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously by not ≤ Jan 1, 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 14.5 people will have ever landed on the Moon by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 100 people or more will be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously by not ≤ Jan 1, 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the US will be 61.9% in October 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 14.5 people will have ever landed on the Moon by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.10 intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025? Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the US will be 59.7% in October 2030? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-f... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 28.9 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, will be available in the United States by April 2032? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 14.5 people will have ever landed on the Moon by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) will be 34.99 in October 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a clean meat flavoring product will be approved for human consumption by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the US will be 61.9% in October 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.10 intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025? Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 100 people or more will be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously by not ≤ Jan 1, 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.10 intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025? Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the US will be 59.7% in October 2030? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-f... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a clean meat flavoring product will be approved for human consumption by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 28.9 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a clean meat flavoring product will be approved for human consumption by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.17 billion broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) will be 34.99 in October 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, will be available in the United States by April 2032? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.17 billion broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030 will be 56.6? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) will be 34.99 in October 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the US will be 61.9% in October 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030 will be 56.6? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 93.5 gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030 will be 56.6? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.17 billion broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 93.5 gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.28% of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Rep... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 93.5 gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.28% of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Rep... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the US will be 59.7% in October 2030? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-f... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 92.6 billion poultry will be slaughtered worldwide in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.1 billion broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period? The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.1 billion broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period? The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that most eggs produced in the USA will be sexed before hatching by 2039? Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 92.6 billion poultry will be slaughtered worldwide in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 92.6 billion poultry will be slaughtered worldwide in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that most eggs produced in the USA will be sexed before hatching by 2039? Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.1 billion broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period? The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year will be resuscitated or uploaded by year 2200, assuming it occurs in 2088? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a major U.S. supermarket will sell "no-kill eggs" in at least 25 states by Not ≤ 2033? Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically wor... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 28.9 million commercial cattle will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg? As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that most eggs produced in the USA will be sexed before hatching by 2039? Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 will fall to less than 50% of the current value by 2070? As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:
+ 165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html))
+ 173 at the Cryonics Institute ([li... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year will be resuscitated or uploaded by year 2200, assuming it occurs in 2088? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, will be available in the United States by April 2032? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.28% of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Rep... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 will fall to less than 50% of the current value by 2070? As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:
+ 165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html))
+ 173 at the Cryonics Institute ([li... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by 2046? As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau))... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a major U.S. supermarket will sell "no-kill eggs" in at least 25 states by Not ≤ 2033? Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically wor... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.65% of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028? Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might ... | 0.06 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 will fall to less than 50% of the current value by 2070? As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:
+ 165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html))
+ 173 at the Cryonics Institute ([li... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.65% of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028? Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might ... | 0.06 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a major U.S. supermarket will sell "no-kill eggs" in at least 25 states by Not ≤ 2033? Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically wor... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by 2046? As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau))... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.65% of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028? Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might ... | 0.06 | Metaculus |
If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what is the chance that UK broadband download speeds will be 65.4% higher 5 years later? The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-b... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year will be resuscitated or uploaded by year 2200, assuming it occurs in 2088? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm will be 2.366 in 2029? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm will be 2.366 in 2029? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what is the chance that UK broadband download speeds will be 65.4% higher 5 years later? The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-b... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what is the chance that UK broadband download speeds will be 65.4% higher 5 years later? The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-b... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the WHO will certify the worldwide eradication of Polio by 2039? In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm will be 2.366 in 2029? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.5% of egg-laying hens in the U.S. will be cage-free in June 2025? [Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/29155... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the WHO will certify the worldwide eradication of Polio by 2039? In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.5% of egg-laying hens in the U.S. will be cage-free in June 2025? [Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/29155... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
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