text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
What is the chance that the WHO will certify the worldwide eradication of Polio by 2039? In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be worth 123.4 billion nominal USD in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/spacex-valuation-in-2030/) *[125B - 100T range]*
----
[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](htt... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by 2046? As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau))... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be worth 123.4 billion nominal USD in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/spacex-valuation-in-2030/) *[125B - 100T range]*
----
[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](htt... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a company in any country will generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone in a single year by 2035? Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.
It is estimate... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a company in any country will generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone in a single year by 2035? Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.
It is estimate... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be worth 123.4 billion nominal USD in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will SpaceX be worth in 2030, in billions of nominal USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/spacex-valuation-in-2030/) *[125B - 100T range]*
----
[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](htt... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a company in any country will generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone in a single year by 2035? Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.
It is estimate... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5,000 companies worldwide will not pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains by 2037? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.5% of egg-laying hens in the U.S. will be cage-free in June 2025? [Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/29155... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 750 companies will pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by the end of 2027? The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfar... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient will be in 2058? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 750 companies will pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by the end of 2027? The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfar... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient will be in 2058? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 750 companies will pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by the end of 2027? The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfar... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025 will be 2.21×1015? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.4 percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027? Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025 will be 2.21×1015? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5,000 companies worldwide will not pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains by 2037? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last Metaculus question resolution will occur by 2050? Important notice: **You will *probably* not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.**
From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):
> Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online predic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last Metaculus question resolution will occur by 2050? Important notice: **You will *probably* not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.**
From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):
> Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online predic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last Metaculus question resolution will occur by 2050? Important notice: **You will *probably* not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.**
From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):
> Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online predic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.73k million pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030? According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017.
**How many millions ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.73k million pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030? According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017.
**How many millions ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.73k million pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030? According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017.
**How many millions ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
In the year 2028, what is the chance that more than 100,000 tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from bei... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In the year 2028, what is the chance that more than 100,000 tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from bei... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that two or more supermarkets will sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states by 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
In the year 2028, what is the chance that more than 100,000 tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from bei... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 195 metric tons of iron will be used to fertilize an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort by the end of 2026? Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 195 metric tons of iron will be used to fertilize an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort by the end of 2026? Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient will be in 2058? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that two or more supermarkets will sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states by 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 195 metric tons of iron will be used to fertilize an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort by the end of 2026? Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5,000 companies worldwide will not pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains by 2037? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that two or more supermarkets will sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states by 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" will be released to the public by 2046? The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which
> aims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025 will be 2.21×1015? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.4 percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027? Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" will be released to the public by 2046? The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which
> aims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.4 percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027? Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?
Keyword: 397
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 50% of patients in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first weakly general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-first-agi-strong/)
----
Since the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?
Keyword: 397
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 50% of patients in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first humans will successfully land on Mars by 2051? A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.
In the early 21st century, numerous US, Europe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first weakly general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-first-agi-strong/)
----
Since the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" will be released to the public by 2046? The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which
> aims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first humans will successfully land on Mars by 2051? A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.
In the early 21st century, numerous US, Europe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will be able to predict at least 50% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone by 2034? Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ).
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Doomsday Clock will not reach midnight before 2100? The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first humans will successfully land on Mars by 2051? A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.
In the early 21st century, numerous US, Europe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will be able to predict at least 50% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone by 2034? Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ).
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first weakly general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-first-agi-strong/)
----
Since the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will be able to predict at least 50% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone by 2034? Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ).
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will admit a new state by 2038? [According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage will reach $75 per kilowatt hour by 2026? Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-al... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will admit a new state by 2038? [According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?
Keyword: 397
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 50% of patients in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will admit a new state by 2038? [According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage will reach $75 per kilowatt hour by 2026? Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-al... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage will reach $100 per kilowatt hour by Sep 2024? Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage will reach $75 per kilowatt hour by 2026? Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-al... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage will reach $100 per kilowatt hour by Sep 2024? Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage will reach $100 per kilowatt hour by Sep 2024? Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Harvard admit rate for the undergraduate class of 2029 will be 3.79? The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Harvard admit rate for the undergraduate class of 2029 will be 3.79? The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Doomsday Clock will not reach midnight before 2100? The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Doomsday Clock will not reach midnight before 2100? The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the English Wikipedia will have 10 million articles by 2032? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth rate will be 3.46% in 2030? The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth rate will be 3.46% in 2030? The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 35.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 35.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 35.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2030? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) will be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time by 2040? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that electric cars will constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet by Apr 2026? In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many gover... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test by 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that electric cars will constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet by Apr 2026? In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many gover... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a private fusion company will first report a yearly profit by 2070? *Related question on Metaculus:*
- [When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/)
----
Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/site... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the English Wikipedia will have 10 million articles by 2032? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that space mining will be profitable by 2105? There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their com... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that space mining will be profitable by 2105? There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their com... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test by 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test by 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the English Wikipedia will have 10 million articles by 2032? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Harvard admit rate for the undergraduate class of 2029 will be 3.79? The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth rate will be 3.46% in 2030? The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that electric cars will constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet by Apr 2026? In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many gover... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) will be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time by 2040? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a private fusion company will first report a yearly profit by 2070? *Related question on Metaculus:*
- [When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/)
----
Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/site... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that L5 degrees of self-driving car autonomy will be developed and commercially available by 2030? Chris Chin of [The Drive](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen) gives a quick summary of the [Society of Automotive Engineers'](https:/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that L5 degrees of self-driving car autonomy will be developed and commercially available by 2030? Chris Chin of [The Drive](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen) gives a quick summary of the [Society of Automotive Engineers'](https:/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.65 communist states in 2050? As of March 2020, **five** states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, *and* are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Ko... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that space mining will be profitable by 2105? There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their com... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.65 communist states in 2050? As of March 2020, **five** states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, *and* are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Ko... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a private fusion company will first report a yearly profit by 2070? *Related question on Metaculus:*
- [When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/)
----
Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/site... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.65 communist states in 2050? As of March 2020, **five** states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, *and* are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Ko... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2046? [Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2046? [Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2046? [Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.