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What is the chance that the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average will first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period by 2030? Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If Joe Biden becomes president, what is the chance that the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024 will be 14.93 tonnes? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea's merchandise trade will be 102% of its GDP in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data? Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false).
> Merchandise... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) will be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time by 2040? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea's merchandise trade will be 102% of its GDP in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data? Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false).
> Merchandise... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea's merchandise trade will be 102% of its GDP in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data? Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false).
> Merchandise... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Joe Biden becomes president, what is the chance that the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024 will be 14.93 tonnes? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Nintendo will release a console capable of 4K output by January 2025? For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average will first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period by 2030? Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average will first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period by 2030? Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If Joe Biden becomes president, what is the chance that the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024 will be 14.93 tonnes? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Nintendo will release a console capable of 4K output by January 2025? For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a currently unknown social media app will reach one billion downloads worldwide by Aug 2026? [Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a currently unknown social media app will reach one billion downloads worldwide by Aug 2026? [Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a currently unknown social media app will reach one billion downloads worldwide by Aug 2026? [Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that L5 degrees of self-driving car autonomy will be developed and commercially available by 2030? Chris Chin of [The Drive](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen) gives a quick summary of the [Society of Automotive Engineers'](https:/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that WW3 will start at 42.1 longitude? The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/new... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a WW3 will start at 36.0 latitude? The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/ne... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that WW3 will start at 42.1 longitude? The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/new... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a WW3 will start at 36.0 latitude? The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/ne... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Nintendo will release a console capable of 4K output by January 2025? For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that humanity will use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output by 2.41k? The sun [produces \(3.86\times 10^{26}\) watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured \(3.03\times 10^{11}\) watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a WW3 will start at 36.0 latitude? The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/ne... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will legalize same-sex marriage by 2042? At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980,... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that humanity will use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output by 2.41k? The sun [produces \(3.86\times 10^{26}\) watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured \(3.03\times 10^{11}\) watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that humanity will use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output by 2.41k? The sun [produces \(3.86\times 10^{26}\) watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured \(3.03\times 10^{11}\) watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that WW3 will start at 42.1 longitude? The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/new... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will legalize same-sex marriage by 2042? At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980,... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a vaccine for HIV will be administered to 10 million people by 2028? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),
> The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine agains... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will legalize same-sex marriage by 2042? At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980,... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a vaccine for HIV will be administered to 10 million people by 2028? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),
> The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine agains... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a vaccine for HIV will be administered to 10 million people by 2028? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),
> The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine agains... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak population of Antarctica will be 26.7k by 2075? [Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points for a single year in the 21st century will be 11.7? World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak population of Antarctica will be 26.7k by 2075? [Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points for a single year in the 21st century will be 11.7? World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If cryonics is offered for free, what is the chance that 0.322 percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years? Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan by 2.99? Caloric restriction is,
> a dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. "Reduce" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage con... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next US depression will have a relative severity of 0.426, compared to the Great Depression? This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is no economic depression in the US between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2032. For this question, an "Economic Depression" is defined as meetin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next US depression will have a relative severity of 0.426, compared to the Great Depression? This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is no economic depression in the US between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2032. For this question, an "Economic Depression" is defined as meetin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points for a single year in the 21st century will be 11.7? World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next US depression will have a relative severity of 0.426, compared to the Great Depression? This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is no economic depression in the US between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2032. For this question, an "Economic Depression" is defined as meetin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak population of Antarctica will be 26.7k by 2075? [Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Assuming some humans are alive, what is the chance that the oldest living human on January 1, 2200 will have a birthdate of 2071? This question will resolve as the date of birth of the [confirmed oldest living person](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) alive on January 1, 2200.
If there... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If cryonics is offered for free, what is the chance that 0.322 percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years? Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan by 2.99? Caloric restriction is,
> a dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. "Reduce" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage con... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If cryonics is offered for free, what is the chance that 0.322 percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years? Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Assuming some humans are alive, what is the chance that the oldest living human on January 1, 2200 will have a birthdate of 2071? This question will resolve as the date of birth of the [confirmed oldest living person](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) alive on January 1, 2200.
If there... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will take 13.7 months for a weak AGI to create the first superintelligent oracle? Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will take 13.7 months for a weak AGI to create the first superintelligent oracle? Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan by 2.99? Caloric restriction is,
> a dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. "Reduce" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage con... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Assuming some humans are alive, what is the chance that the oldest living human on January 1, 2200 will have a birthdate of 2071? This question will resolve as the date of birth of the [confirmed oldest living person](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) alive on January 1, 2200.
If there... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that climate change will cause a 27.2% impact on GDP in the 21st century? From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,
> The impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrim... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will take 13.7 months for a weak AGI to create the first superintelligent oracle? Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die will occur in 2171? Disease:
> is a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate ex... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a human chess player will not reach a FIDE rating of 2900 by 2040? The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a human chess player will not reach a FIDE rating of 2900 by 2040? The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that climate change will cause a 27.2% impact on GDP in the 21st century? From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,
> The impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrim... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed will be 183 trillions of dollars? An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's *[The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf)* (2005),
> One could argue that to get an inde... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die will occur in 2171? Disease:
> is a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate ex... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed will be 183 trillions of dollars? An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's *[The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf)* (2005),
> One could argue that to get an inde... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a human chess player will not reach a FIDE rating of 2900 by 2040? The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of CO2 will be lower than the same time in the previous year by 2079? In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die will occur in 2171? Disease:
> is a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate ex... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that climate change will cause a 27.2% impact on GDP in the 21st century? From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,
> The impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrim... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks by Nov 2025? Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However question... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of CO2 will be lower than the same time in the previous year by 2079? In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of CO2 will be lower than the same time in the previous year by 2079? In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed will be 183 trillions of dollars? An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's *[The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf)* (2005),
> One could argue that to get an inde... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 62.2 countries will decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070? #Context
As of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes d... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 62.2 countries will decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070? #Context
As of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes d... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 62.2 countries will decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070? #Context
As of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes d... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks by Nov 2025? Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However question... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers by 2029? Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks by Nov 2025? Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However question... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed? What is the chance that it will take 3.46 years? Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed? What is the chance that it will take 3.46 years? Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed? What is the chance that it will take 3.46 years? Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers by 2029? Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will defeat top human players in Poohsticks by 2028? In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https:/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon with a 2.952 chance? At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:
> NA... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers by 2029? Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will defeat top human players in Poohsticks by 2028? In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https:/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon with a 2.952 chance? At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:
> NA... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will defeat top human players in Poohsticks by 2028? In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https:/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031, given that the cost of saving a life is 882? [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal do... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon with a 2.952 chance? At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:
> NA... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that electric cars will constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet by Dec 2028? Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as bei... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Democracy Index of the United States will be 7.88 in 2040? The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is
> an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that electric cars will constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet by Dec 2028? Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as bei... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Democracy Index of the United States will be 7.88 in 2040? The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is
> an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Democracy Index of the United States will be 7.88 in 2040? The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is
> an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031, given that the cost of saving a life is 882? [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal do... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031, given that the cost of saving a life is 882? [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal do... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US national debt will reach $50 trillion by Jul 2032? The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been iss... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US national debt will reach $50 trillion by Jul 2032? The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been iss... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025 will be 1.42k? Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more comm... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.35B people will use a newly discovered drug for non-medical purposes between 2021 and 2070? [World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US national debt will reach $50 trillion by Jul 2032? The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been iss... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025 will be 1.42k? Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more comm... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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