Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
HEAD: T3 warmup gate - gated hazard order + alpha 1.4 boost - CV 1418.3
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
e4745d2
While the training fleet's death ledger at the plan origin is below
WARMUP_RATE (0.0759/device = 35/461), Ft2RUL switches ORDER to a
censored-pool discrete-time hazard HGB and boosts appetite x1.4 via a
consume-once plan_tsroute.alpha_boost; past the gate the model is
byte-identical to the previous head (WARMUP_RATE=0 disables exactly,
verified 0.0 max cell diff vs 1541.3).
bgkf: 1418.3, -123.0 +/- 43.1 (2.9sigma), 14W/5L, Wilcoxon .0017.
COUNT-COUPLED (swaps 2.54 vs 2.27) - shipped on the user's CV-first
call for a public trigger. Scale harness: gate narrows as fleets grow
(8/4/0 active scenarios at 1x/2x/4x) - bounded downside. Rehearsal:
gate fired on exactly s_0-14, s_15+ byte-identical, 0 warnings.
Includes T3 lane reports (gm label-statistic axis closed: the exact
label is a lagging smoother; cold-start gating; scale validation) and
phases 65-66.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
lam2sp3 from the T2 planner lane: scale timing curves x2 inside
optimize_days' objective (new BATTERYSWAP_TIMING_WEIGHT dial, default
2.0) and SPLIT_DAYS default 7->3. Refuses cheap trip-merges that drag
swaps off timing-optimal days: late -3.5, early -1.2, mobility +0.8.
bgkf paired vs 1545.4 champion: -4.11 +/- 1.41 (2.9sigma), 25W/4L,
Wilcoxon 8.8e-6, count-flat (battery sets cell-identical); dose-response
plateau on both dials; survives 35-arm multiplicity. New-mechanism tier
(2sigma + controls) PASSED. Deployment parity: cand ft2a10 cell-exact
(diff 0.0) vs the lane measurement; timing_weight=1.0 legacy path
bit-exact vs pre-T2 reference (ft2a10_sp7 control). End-to-end pseudo-
split rehearsal clean (static held-out branch, 0 warnings, 38s).
Also: phases 63-64 records (public conversion 1575.31 at 4c93883;
five-lane T2 campaign - timing/order/hazard axes closed with structure,
counts lane report-only incl. warmup-gated alpha 1488.0 for a possible
public trigger) + the five t2_*.…
HEAD: wiener weight .30 in the 3-way order (.50/.30/.20) - CV 1545.4
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
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s_503020 from the simplex sweep: -23.2 +/- 12.3 (1.9sigma, count-flat,
bowl mapped on all sides) - qualifies under the 1.5-sigma tier for weight
tweaks in validated mechanisms. Deployment parity bit-exact after fixing a
float knife-edge (1-.30-.20 = 0.4999...94 flipped one exact rank tie and
moved a cell by 539; primary weight now rounded - and noted: single-config
SCOREs carry ~+/-11 tie sensitivity on this instrument). Rehearsal clean
(47s, recall .538, swaps 9.6/scen). Wave-S remainder all dead: HGB
evolutions worse (monotone constraints break the gap features), plateau
wiener inert, alpha bowl still at 1.0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
HEAD: gap-approach HGB third order source at w .20 (user call) - CV 1568.6
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
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Order = .55*logbag(vm7) + .25*wiener + .20*HGB(d2, gap-approach features:
gap_ratio/rel_close/dwell_flat/gap_log - the plateau-vs-fast-crosser shape
from the autopsy). Value-preserving; counts untouched. Evidence: -32.5 +/-
25.2 vs 1601.2, six-of-six sign consistency across weights/bases, below
the formal 2-sigma bar for new mechanisms - shipped on the count-flat
order-blend risk class (never publicly refuted). Deployment parity
bit-exact (1568.6, cell diff 0); end-to-end pseudo-split rehearsal clean
(48s, recall .535 vs .514 prior head at equal swaps). days_below_245
merged into the shipped train table; BATTERYSWAP_FT2_GAPW=0 reverts.
cv cand ft2a10 / head now run the literal deployed class.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
cv: 'ft2a10' now tracks the shipped head (w .25, 1601.2); old form kept as ft2a10_w20
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
adc06b1
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adoption bar TIERED (user-approved): 1.5sigma for count-flat tweaks in validated mechanisms; 2sigma+controls for new mechanisms; report-only for count/label-process at any sigma
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
HEAD: wiener weight .25 (1601.2 on bgkf, deployment parity exact; count-flat weight tweak inside the validated blend; sub-bar 1.6sigma, shipped per user)
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
f8a734c
cv cand head = the shipped model. FT2_W env reverts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
cv: SCORE line shows SE + 95% CI (scenario-scatter caveat; paired deltas remain the decision statistic)
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
e95e770
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Wave A10: head is at its local optimum on every dial; wiener .25 sub-bar trend shelved
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
ff0189b
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
cv: p_star hook in run_bgkf + 'ft2a10' candidate (the head/alpha-1.0 model) - one-liner CLI
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
HEAD = the alpha-1.0 A/B (same model as 296f8f2, now on current version for public scoring): ft2 frontier + alpha 1.0
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
401f171
The user triggers public scoring on the current git version, so the A/B
candidate moves to head. Behavior identical to 296f8f2 (which lacked the
later FT2_FIXEDREF dial - default off, inert). Safe 0.8 config remains
one commit away (97af9ac) and via BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA(_STATIC)=0.8.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Phase 62 postscript: scaling verdict is geography-insensitive (cluster-local and map-faithful travel variants <2% shift, arm ranking unchanged)
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
97af9ac
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Phase 62: synthetic scaling study (1x/2x/4x, official-mechanism EOLs); count rule scales cleanly; fixed-ref vmin7 dial (default off); alpha-1.0 edge holds at every scale
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
34c30a6
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
EXPERIMENTS: Phase 61 entry
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
4d3b32e
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Phase 61 findings: team stack on bgkf (no adoption, all count-channel); operating-point analysis (podium swaps 15-17.6 vs our 12.1); alpha-1.0 A/B commit prepared
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
7330221
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Restore safe alpha 0.8 default at head (A/B candidate remains selectable at 296f8f2)
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
7d7632c
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
PUBLIC A/B CANDIDATE (score this commit to test): alpha 1.0 on the ft2 frontier
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
296f8f2
Single-variable experiment. Evidence FOR: entire public podium operates at
15-17.6 swaps/scenario vs our 12.1 with HALF our late cost; bgkf alpha 1.0
on ft2 = -64.5 mean; CP-SAT planner fed ft2 predictions lands at 16.4
swaps and -96 locally. Evidence AGAINST: mean-only support (17W/24L),
and alpha 1.5 on the OLD ordering publicly caught zero extra deaths
(6ea03da). This commit exists so the user can price the question with one
public trigger; the next commit restores the safe 0.8 default at head.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Ft2RUL = logbag on FEATURES+vmin7_rank, 0.20 value-preserving WienerFHT
order blend (order remapped onto primary's own sorted p42 values; count/
pricing/timing untouched). bgkf v5: 1688.4 vs 1760.2 (-71.8 +/- 23.5,
3.05 sigma, Wilcoxon .037, swaps flat, count-clean; reproduced exactly by
3 lanes). Worst-case within-test-fleet vmin7 recompute still -60.8 (2.3
sigma). Deployment parity vs the CV frontier: bit-exact (max cell diff 0).
wnr_m/s2/n merged into the shipped train table; split-path wiener params
computed past-only from the scored split's own telemetry (0.1s/scenario).
Soft degradation: missing wnr -> pure vm7 order; fit error -> legacy
champion. BATTERYSWAP_FT2=0 reverts to the measured-1661.45 config.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Board: md lane closed, no survivor - logbag(C=1,b=15) locally optimal; monotone HGB genuine but subsumed by frontier (+1.0 as 3rd source), shelf fallback only
Thibaut Forest+1: Claude Fable 5
6936910
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
