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meta-26819
|
Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?
|
[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes.
In recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:
>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.
>...
>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.
As of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)
In his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.
As of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve **Yes** if Kamala Harris has more than 15 million followers on Sept 30, 2024 on their primary TikTok account which will be considered to be [@kamalaharris](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris), unless this account ceases to exist before election day, in which case an official account operated by Kamala Harris or their campaign, as identified by Metaculus administrators, may be designated their "primary account" for the purposes of this question. In no event shall a combined total across multiple accounts be used.
In the event that Kamala Harris has no official TikTok account as of Sept 30, this question will resolve as **No**, regardless of the reason for no longer having an official account on the platform (including withdrawal from the presidential contest).
If Kamala Harris withdraws from the race but continues to have an official TikTok account on Sept 30, this question will resolve based on the number of followers the account has on Sept 30; it should not be annulled on account of the end of their campaign.
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T17:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26818
|
Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?
|
[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes.
In recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:
>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.
>...
>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.
As of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)
In his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.
As of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve **Yes** if Donald Trump has more than 15 million followers on Sept 30, 2024 on their primary TikTok account which will be considered to be [@realdonaldtrump](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), unless this account ceases to exist before election day, in which case an official account operated by Donald Trump or their campaign, as identified by Metaculus administrators, may be designated their "primary account" for the purposes of this question. In no event shall a combined total across multiple accounts be used.
In the event that Donald Trump has no official TikTok account as of Sept 30, this question will resolve as **No**, regardless of the reason for no longer having an official account on the platform (including withdrawal from the presidential contest).
If Donald Trump withdraws from the race but continues to have an official TikTok account on Sept 30, this question will resolve based on the number of followers the account has on Sept 30; it should not be annulled on account of the end of their campaign.
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T17:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26817
|
Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?
|
The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).
[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.
Nonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.
The removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets).
Resolution Criteria: The UK government must officially abolish the two-child benefit cap before October 1, 2024 for the question to resolve as **Yes**. The cap must be removed in its entirety by this date, not merely announced as a future policy to be implemented. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.
The abolition must be confirmed through an official government announcement, for example from the official [UK Parliament](https://bills.parliament.uk/) which keeps a record of parliamentary bills.
Fine Print: Anything below an official, complete abolishment of the two-child benefit cap, such as a suspension of it (even if it's an indefinite suspension), an increase in exemptions to it, or an increase in the cap to above 2 children, will not count.
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26816
|
Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?
|
Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.
[Glaringly absent](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/27/biden-trump-no-hand-shake-presidential-debate/74238160007/) in the 90-minute showdown between Biden and Trump was the [traditional](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109452062.html) debate handshake; the two candidates did nothing to acknowledge each other until the debate began. However, with a new candidate, the reluctance to shake hands may disappear. Trump shook hands with Hillary Clinton in 2 of their 3 debates in 2016, while neither Trump nor Harris shook hands with their opponents in 2020 due to COVID.
There is little personal relationship between the candidates. Trump [donated to Harris’s campaign](https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/elections-verify/trump-harris-donation-6000-california-attorney-general-campaign/536-3dd86c7f-48df-40c9-aae4-aa89e7ce454a) in 2011 and 2013 when she was Attorney General of California, but has more recently [labeled her privately](https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-caught-on-video-claiming-broken-down-joe-biden-has-quit-its-kamala) as “pathetic” and “so f**king bad”. Likewise, Harris has [likened Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/harris-hold-1st-rally-presidential-campaign-milwaukee/story?id=112196550) to “predators”, “fraudsters” and “cheaters” in her opening attacks as a candidate.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, before October 1, 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as No.
If no formal, live debates are held between Trump and Harris, this question will be annulled.
Fine Print: - "Shake hands" is defined using the Merriam-Webster [definition](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handshake): *a clasping usually of right hands by two people (as in greeting or farewell)*. Therefore other forms of greeting such as a fist bump, elbow bump, or hug will not count.
- A handshake between the candidates at a non-debate event is not sufficient for a Yes resolution.
- The handshake must be clearly verifiable through photographic or video evidence.
- The handshake must occur during the actual live debate period. Any handshakes that occur outside the debate period, such as a pre-recorded promo video at the top of the broadcast, would not count.
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-11T01:03:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26781
|
Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?
|
After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was "listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed.
The protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. Later Ruto reinstated some of the dismissed cabinet members, and [appointed some members of the opposition](https://apnews.com/article/kenya-william-ruto-cabinet-anti-government-protests-8b56ed967f0280c2af594c54971e3e0b) on July 24.
See Also
- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />
- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />
- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before October 1, 2024, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**. This 30 day period must complete before October 1, 2024, otherwise the question will resolve as **No** if the other criteria have not been met.
If Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.
In cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26780
|
Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.
Despite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting cryptocurrencies in donations for US presidential campaigns), Bitcoin's price dropped over the months, reaching its local minimum of $53,905.56 on July 5.
It has recovered in July, reaching above $69,000 on July 29.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than $73,750.07 and the date of ATH is between July 30 and October 1, 2024.
In case the resolution source is no longer available or in the event of ambiguous data, another resolution source, such as [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/all-time-high-crypto) may be also used to determine the result.
Fine Print: Since the price of Bitcoin varies on different exchanges, it is possible that different statistics sites mention slightly different values for ATH.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26779
|
Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?
|
In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/).
Typically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups:
- 2023: 3 days
- 2022: 11 days
- 2021: 2 days
- 2020: 9 days
- 2019: 0 days
- 2018: 7 days
- 2017: 11 days
- 2016: 1 day
- 2015: 3 days
- 2014: 0 days
According to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the
> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.
> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.
Historical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).
As of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of days that the [EPA's outdoor air quality data](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-tile-plot) tool reports an air quality index (AQI) value above 150 for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA area in the third quarter of 2024 (July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, inclusive). The question will resolve when the data for the complete period is available and accessed by Metaculus on or after October 2, 2024.
To access the data use the following selections:
Select Pollutant: All AQI Pollutants
Year: 2024
Geographic Area: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA
Monitor Site: All Sites (Highest Daily AQI)
Each day with an AQI above 150 will be counted, which includes the categories Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous. The tool provides a plot as well as a CSV.
Fine Print: * If data for the full period is not available before October 8, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
* After the question has resolved, later updates or changes to the resolution source that effect the displayed results will be immaterial.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26778
|
Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?
|
In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/).
Typically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups:
- 2023: 3 days
- 2022: 11 days
- 2021: 2 days
- 2020: 9 days
- 2019: 0 days
- 2018: 7 days
- 2017: 11 days
- 2016: 1 day
- 2015: 3 days
- 2014: 0 days
According to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the
> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.
> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.
Historical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).
As of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of days that the [EPA's outdoor air quality data](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-tile-plot) tool reports an air quality index (AQI) value above 150 for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA area in the third quarter of 2024 (July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, inclusive). The question will resolve when the data for the complete period is available and accessed by Metaculus on or after October 2, 2024.
To access the data use the following selections:
Select Pollutant: All AQI Pollutants
Year: 2024
Geographic Area: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA
Monitor Site: All Sites (Highest Daily AQI)
Each day with an AQI above 150 will be counted, which includes the categories Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous. The tool provides a plot as well as a CSV.
Fine Print: * If data for the full period is not available before October 8, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
* After the question has resolved, later updates or changes to the resolution source that effect the displayed results will be immaterial.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26777
|
Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?
|
In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/).
Typically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups:
- 2023: 3 days
- 2022: 11 days
- 2021: 2 days
- 2020: 9 days
- 2019: 0 days
- 2018: 7 days
- 2017: 11 days
- 2016: 1 day
- 2015: 3 days
- 2014: 0 days
According to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the
> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.
> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.
Historical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).
As of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of days that the [EPA's outdoor air quality data](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-tile-plot) tool reports an air quality index (AQI) value above 150 for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA area in the third quarter of 2024 (July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, inclusive). The question will resolve when the data for the complete period is available and accessed by Metaculus on or after October 2, 2024.
To access the data use the following selections:
Select Pollutant: All AQI Pollutants
Year: 2024
Geographic Area: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA
Monitor Site: All Sites (Highest Daily AQI)
Each day with an AQI above 150 will be counted, which includes the categories Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous. The tool provides a plot as well as a CSV.
Fine Print: * If data for the full period is not available before October 8, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
* After the question has resolved, later updates or changes to the resolution source that effect the displayed results will be immaterial.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26776
|
Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?
|
In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/).
Typically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups:
- 2023: 3 days
- 2022: 11 days
- 2021: 2 days
- 2020: 9 days
- 2019: 0 days
- 2018: 7 days
- 2017: 11 days
- 2016: 1 day
- 2015: 3 days
- 2014: 0 days
According to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the
> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.
> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.
Historical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).
As of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of days that the [EPA's outdoor air quality data](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-tile-plot) tool reports an air quality index (AQI) value above 150 for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA area in the third quarter of 2024 (July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, inclusive). The question will resolve when the data for the complete period is available and accessed by Metaculus on or after October 2, 2024.
To access the data use the following selections:
Select Pollutant: All AQI Pollutants
Year: 2024
Geographic Area: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA
Monitor Site: All Sites (Highest Daily AQI)
Each day with an AQI above 150 will be counted, which includes the categories Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous. The tool provides a plot as well as a CSV.
Fine Print: * If data for the full period is not available before October 8, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
* After the question has resolved, later updates or changes to the resolution source that effect the displayed results will be immaterial.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26775
|
Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?
|
The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and the "2024 SINQUEFIELD CUP" still to go. Leaving one tournament with the quicker time controls of "Blitz" and "Rapid" as well as one tournament in a longer, "Classical" time control still to be played.
The [current standings](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/standings/) show Caruana leading the Tour with 22.25 points in front of Firouzja with 17.58 points and Praggnanandhaa with 16.25 points.
See also Wikipedia: [Grand Chess Tour 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Chess_Tour_2024)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju wins the 2024 Grand Chess Tour, according to the Grand Chess Tour site or credible sources.
Fine Print: If either of the remaining tournaments are not held or the Grand Tour is cancelled, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-29T13:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26774
|
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?
|
The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and the "2024 SINQUEFIELD CUP" still to go. Leaving one tournament with the quicker time controls of "Blitz" and "Rapid" as well as one tournament in a longer, "Classical" time control still to be played.
The [current standings](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/standings/) show Caruana leading the Tour with 22.25 points in front of Firouzja with 17.58 points and Praggnanandhaa with 16.25 points.
See also Wikipedia: [Grand Chess Tour 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Chess_Tour_2024)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if Gukesh Dommaraju wins the 2024 Grand Chess Tour, according to the Grand Chess Tour site or credible sources.
Fine Print: If either of the remaining tournaments are not held or the Grand Tour is cancelled, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-29T13:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26773
|
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?
|
The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and the "2024 SINQUEFIELD CUP" still to go. Leaving one tournament with the quicker time controls of "Blitz" and "Rapid" as well as one tournament in a longer, "Classical" time control still to be played.
The [current standings](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/standings/) show Caruana leading the Tour with 22.25 points in front of Firouzja with 17.58 points and Praggnanandhaa with 16.25 points.
See also Wikipedia: [Grand Chess Tour 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Chess_Tour_2024)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu wins the 2024 Grand Chess Tour, according to the Grand Chess Tour site or credible sources.
Fine Print: If either of the remaining tournaments are not held or the Grand Tour is cancelled, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-29T13:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26772
|
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?
|
The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and the "2024 SINQUEFIELD CUP" still to go. Leaving one tournament with the quicker time controls of "Blitz" and "Rapid" as well as one tournament in a longer, "Classical" time control still to be played.
The [current standings](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/standings/) show Caruana leading the Tour with 22.25 points in front of Firouzja with 17.58 points and Praggnanandhaa with 16.25 points.
See also Wikipedia: [Grand Chess Tour 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Chess_Tour_2024)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if Alireza Firouzja wins the 2024 Grand Chess Tour, according to the Grand Chess Tour site or credible sources.
Fine Print: If either of the remaining tournaments are not held or the Grand Tour is cancelled, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-29T13:04:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26771
|
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?
|
The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and the "2024 SINQUEFIELD CUP" still to go. Leaving one tournament with the quicker time controls of "Blitz" and "Rapid" as well as one tournament in a longer, "Classical" time control still to be played.
The [current standings](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/standings/) show Caruana leading the Tour with 22.25 points in front of Firouzja with 17.58 points and Praggnanandhaa with 16.25 points.
See also Wikipedia: [Grand Chess Tour 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Chess_Tour_2024)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if Fabiano Caruana wins the 2024 Grand Chess Tour, according to the Grand Chess Tour site or credible sources.
Fine Print: If either of the remaining tournaments are not held or the Grand Tour is cancelled, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-29T13:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26753
|
Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025?
|
In Venezuela's [disputed](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner with 51.2% of the vote, despite allegations of irregularities and fraud by the opposition and international observers. If the election results stand, Maduro would be set to begin a new six-year term in January 2025. However, the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, has not conceded the election and continues to challenge the results.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is officially inaugurated for a new presidential term in Venezuela in January 2025, as scheduled following the 2024 election. The inauguration must occur according to credible sources. If Maduro is not inaugurated in January 2025, or if he leaves office or is removed from power before the scheduled inauguration date, the question will resolve as "No".
Fine Print: - Specifically, the inauguration is [scheduled for](https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/venezuelan-opposition-declares-maduro-s-rival-gonzalez-presi) January 10, 2025. If the inauguration is postponed but still takes place before the end of January 2025, the question will resolve as "Yes".
- In the event that Maduro is declared the winner of the 2024 election but is unable to be inaugurated due to death, incapacitation, or other unforeseen circumstances, the question will resolve as "No".
- If a new election is held before January 2025 and Maduro wins that election and is subsequently inaugurated in January 2025, the question will resolve as "Yes".
|
2024-07-31T13:00:00Z
|
2025-02-01T04:59:00Z
|
2025-01-10T05:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26752
|
Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?
|
In the aftermath of Venezuela's [disputed presidential election](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) on July 28, 2024, where incumbent Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner, the government has begun investigating opposition leaders. The justice minister, Tarek William Saab, [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-arrests-two-people-close-opposition-candidate-machado-2024-03-20/) that three opposition figures, including popular leader María Corina Machado, were under investigation for allegedly hacking Venezuela's electoral system. Edmundo González, the opposition's presidential candidate, has not conceded the election and continues to dispute the results.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before December 31, 2024, Venezuelan authorities officially charge Edmundo González with any crime, regardless of the nature of the alleged offense or the validity of the charges. If González is not charged with a crime before the end of 2024, the question will resolve as "No".
Resolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: - The charges against González do not need to be directly related to the 2024 presidential election or its aftermath.
- If González is arrested or detained without formal charges being announced, the question will not resolve until charges are officially filed (at which point it resolves Yes) or the end of 2024 (at which point it resolves No), whichever comes first.
- In the event of González's death or disappearance, the question will resolve as "No" unless charges were filed against him prior to his death or disappearance.
|
2024-07-31T12:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-09-03T04:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26751
|
Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?
|
In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44.2%. The election was marred by [irregularities](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html), with the opposition and international observers questioning the results. González, a stand-in for popular opposition leader María Corina Machado who was barred from running, has not yet conceded the election to Maduro.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before September 1, 2024, Edmundo González publicly concedes the election to Nicolás Maduro, acknowledging Maduro's victory. The concession must be reported by credible sources. If González does not concede before September 2024, the question will resolve as "No".
Fine Print: - A concession by González must be explicit and unambiguous. Statements that only imply a concession or acknowledge Maduro's de facto control without formally conceding will not count.
- If González is arrested, disappears, or is otherwise prevented from making a public statement, the question will resolve as "No" unless he manages to concede the election through other means (e.g., a statement released by his representatives or family).
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-01T03:59:00Z
|
2024-09-01T15:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26706
|
Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?
|
Stripe, which reported processing a full 1% of global GPD in its most recent [annual letter](https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2023), has long been speculated to be planning an IPO. In February 2024, it announced that its employees could cash out their privately-held shares.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Stripe, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://stripe.com/newsroom/news If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Stripe's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://stripe.com/newsroom/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on October 1, 2024, this question resolves as No.
Stripe's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26705
|
Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/), "The iPhone 16 models are expected to include a new thermal design that will combat overheating. Apple is said to be working on a graphene thermal system for the iPhone 16 models, and the iPhone 16 Pro models may also include a metal battery casing that will improve heat dissipation.
Graphene has higher thermal conductivity than the copper that's used in iPhone heat sinks."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces an iPhone model that has a graphene thermal system. If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The iPhone with a graphene thermal system must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16.
This iPhone can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. It does not have to be available for purchase.
Leaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T17:06:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26704
|
Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?
|
As of July 10, 2024, the 248th through 251st rankings came from the Energy sector. The 252nd came from Finance, the 253rd came from Energy, and the 254th through 256th rankings also came from Finance.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is listed under the "Energy" industry when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the 250th-ranked person is from any other industry.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question, the "median" from the question's title is defined as the 250th ranked person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
If the list contains fewer than 250 people on the resolution date, this question will be resolved as the last person on the list.
If Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
The industry classification of the 250th-ranked person must be exactly "Energy" and nothing else. In order to simplify this question's resolution, if the "Energy" category is renamed or split into subcategories, even if they are direct successors to Energy (e.g., "Fossil Fuels" and "Clean Energy"), the question will resolve as No. Part of the probability assigned by forecasters might therefore be the probability of Bloomberg changing this category. Similarly, if Bloomberg no longer lists a person's industry at all, this question resolves as No.
The billionaire's industry classification on September 16, 2024, will be used for resolution, regardless of any previous classifications. For example, if someone was previously Industrial and is now Energy on September 16th, the person will be considered in the Energy category.
In the event of a tie for 250th place, resolution will be based on the first person listed among those tied.
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T21:11:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26703
|
Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?
|
Venezuela and Guyana have long had a rocky relationship. Their border defined by mutual agreement in 1897 began being questioned by Venezuela [in 1962](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela_relations). In 2023, [Venezuela drafted a public referendum](https://youtu.be/Btqc9Kch980) on whether to further assert its claims. [American officials are visiting the region](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231124-us-defense-officials-to-visit-guyana-amid-venezuela-row-guyanese-vp) and [some are sounding the alarm](https://en.mercopress.com/2023/11/25/ngo-warns-essequibo-question-might-end-up-in-war-between-venezuela-and-guyana) that the dispute might escalate to war.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before September 30, 2024, either the Government of Venezuela or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that Venezuelan ground troops have entered Guyanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Venezuela and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Guyana or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and January 1 of the year indicated in the sub-question.
For the purpose of this question, Guyanese territory is determined by the border as of October 10, 2023.
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T16:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26702
|
Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?
|
Coinmarketcap.com is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at the total market cap, i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth.
Resolution Criteria: On July 25, 2024, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies according to CoinMarketCap was $2.35 trillion. The specific resolution source is [here](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). This question will resolves as **Yes** if CoinMarketCap shows a market cap in the Spot market of greater than $1.5T and less than or equal to $2T.
Fine Print: If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-29T21:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26701
|
Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?
|
Coinmarketcap.com is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at the total market cap, i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth.
Resolution Criteria: On July 25, 2024, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies according to CoinMarketCap was $2.35 trillion. The specific resolution source is [here](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). This question will resolves as **Yes** if CoinMarketCap shows a market cap in the Spot market of greater than $2T. If it shows a value of less than or equal to $2T, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-29T21:22:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26700
|
Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?
|
Coinmarketcap.com is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at the total market cap, i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth.
Resolution Criteria: On July 25, 2024, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies according to CoinMarketCap was $2.35 trillion. The specific resolution source is [here](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). This question will resolves as **Yes** if CoinMarketCap shows a market cap in the Spot market of greater than $1.5T. If it shows a value of less than or equal to $1.5T, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-29T21:18:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26683
|
At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?
|
[Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.
Conversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:
* London 2012: 3
* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9
* Tokyo 2020: 3
Will this number be 5 or more this year?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic gold medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: Liechtenstein has won gold at Winter Games, but not the Summer ones; it won't count as a "first" if it wins any in Paris.
The Refugee Olympic Team, which won no medals at either Games it has participated in, will count if it wins; "Individual Neutral Athletes" or [Independent Olympians at the Olympic Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Olympians_at_the_Olympic_Games) will not.
|
2024-07-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-11T18:20:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26671
|
Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?
|
After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), centrist Together and far-right National Rally.
Will the Prime Minister on August 31 come from President Emmanuel Macron's Together alliance?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Prime Minister of France as of August 31, 2024, 12:00 CEST, was elected to Parliament as a member of the Together alliance.
Fine Print: The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry elections page will be the source about which party they belong to.
|
2024-07-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-31T13:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26670
|
Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?
|
After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), centrist Together and far-right National Rally.
Will the Prime Minister on August 31 come from the NFP but not its furthest-left member LFI?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Prime Minister of France as of August 31, 2024, 12:00 CEST, is a member of the New Popular Front but not the LFI party.
Fine Print: The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry elections page will be the source about which party they belong to.
|
2024-07-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-31T13:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26669
|
Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?
|
After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front, centrist Together and far-right National Rally.
Will the Prime Minister on August 31 come from France Unbowed (LFI), the furthest-left party in the NFP coalition?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Prime Minister of France as of August 31, 2024, 12:00 CEST, is a member of France Unbowed (LFI).
Fine Print: The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry elections page will be the source about which party they belong to.
|
2024-07-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-31T13:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26668
|
On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?
|
JD Vance was officially nominated as the 2024 Republican vice presidential candidate on July 17, 2024. Shortly after that, President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and his vice president, Kamala Harris, became the presumptive nominee. Since then, footage has resurfaced of Vance referring to "childless cat ladies," mentioning Harris. According to Harry Enten of CNN, Vance has a net favoribility rating of -16% in his home region of the Midwest and is historically unpopular for a freshly-picked vice president. Enten notes Vance's national net favorability of -5% is far lower than Dan Quayle at +15 and Sarah Palin at +26 following their respective conventions. There is historical precedent in an official vice presidential nominee dropping out: Thomas Eagleton in 1972.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if James David Vance is the Republican vice presidential nominee on September 30, 2024. If he is not the vice presidential nominee on that day, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-07-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T16:52:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26667
|
Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?
|
*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*
---
In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.
[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.
[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.
The planet, however, remains to be found.
If it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a new planet in the [Solar System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_System) is detected by direct optical observation, according to credible sources. The planet must have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.
If this does not happen before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-07-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26666
|
Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?
|
[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to present audits showing sufficient asset reserves.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if any of these conditions are true before September 30, 2024:
- Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days on at least two out of the following three exchanges: [Binance](https://www.binance.com/en/price/tether), [Coinbase](https://www.coinbase.com/price/tether), and [Uniswap](https://app.uniswap.org/explore/tokens/ethereum/0xdAC17F958D2ee523a2206206994597C13D831ec7).
- Trading of all USDT pairs is suspended for more than 7 days on at least two out of the following three exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, and Uniswap.
- Tether's price as shown on Coingecko falls below 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days.
Fine Print: - The period of 7 days can start any time before September 30, 2024. Thus, it is possible that the period could end after September 30, 2024.
|
2024-07-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26665
|
Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/), "With the iPhone 16, Apple could introduce a high-end iPhone 16 "Ultra" that would be sold alongside the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max. The device would be positioned as the top-of-the-line iPhone offering, and it could feature additional camera improvements, a bigger display, and perhaps even a portless design."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces an iPhone model that is portless, which means it has no ports for charging and can only be charged wirelessly. If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The portless iPhone must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16.
The portless iPhone can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. It does not have to be available for purchase.
Leaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.
|
2024-07-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26651
|
Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?
|
The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:
- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can attract foreign investment, boosting the USD's value relative to the EUR.
- Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation impact currency values. Strong economic performance in the U.S. can lead to a stronger USD.
- Political Stability: Political events, such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and currency values.
- Market Sentiment: Traders' perceptions and speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can cause short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.
- Trade Balances: A country's trade balance (exports vs. imports) influences currency demand. A trade surplus in the U.S. can strengthen the USD.
- As of recent years, global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery efforts, and geopolitical tensions have caused significant volatility in currency markets.
As of August 13, 2024, 1 USD ≈ [0.9128 EUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Dollar (USD) to Euro EUR rate reaches 0.935 or higher at the close of any trading day after August 13, 2024 and before October 1, 2024, according to closing prices posted at [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: Specifically, we will be using the "Close" price for each day, posted under Yahoo Finance's history for *USD/EUR (USDEUR=X)*.
If Yahoo Finance shuts down or stops tracking this indicator, Metaculus admins will resolve the question based on other reliable sources that measure this key rate, at their discretion.
This question will only resolve based on closing prices, not intraday prices.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T10:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T15:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26646
|
At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?
|
The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as "the world's fastest man".
The [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete runs the Men's 100M race at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics in less than 9.63s, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The world record is 9.58s, but a time higher than that and lower than the Olympic record is still sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**. Live transmission reporting a time as a record will be enough; the record need not be ratified by World Athletics, as that ratification can be later rescinded.
Wind speed in the direction of the race needs to be less than 2.0m/s, the normal condition for record validity; if the race is run with stronger winds, any records set there are not valid for this question.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-04T20:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26645
|
Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?
|
[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords):
> The Abraham Accords are a series of joint normalization statements initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, effective since September 15, 2020.
The Accords were later joined by Morocco (2020) and Sudan (2021). As part of the dual agreements, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco recognized Israel's sovereignty, enabling the establishment of full diplomatic relations.
The Biden Administration has made it a priority to include Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords, including appointing former U.S. Ambassador Daniel Shapiro as Senior Advisor for Regional Integration, tasked to "[deepen and broaden the Abraham Accords](https://twitter.com/secblinken/status/1674415194175406080?s=43&t=vY0_bWTIV7xGoG_yX6ppxQ)".
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 30, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Saudi Arabia and Israel have established diplomatic relations. Otherwise resolves as **No**. For the purposes of this question, diplomatic relations will be considered to be established when a mutual agreement to establish diplomatic relations is announced.
Fine Print: * Saudi Arabia need not sign the Abraham Accords for this question to resolve as **Yes** so long as an agreement to establish diplomatic relations is announced.
* This question does not require any steps to be taken to fulfill normalization, only the announcement of a mutual agreement to establish diplomatic relations.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T19:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26644
|
Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?
|
The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.
See also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of Wikipedia articles first exceeds 2 million between September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024, according to [official internal statistics from Wikipedia](https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas).
The "Número de artículos" statistic on that page will be used as the resolution source.
Fine Print: If the location of the statistics page changes, Admins will locate another resolution source from Wikipedia or credible sources. If none exist, the question will be **annulled**.
If Wikipedia implements a change in its methodology of counting articles (for example, counting Talk pages as a separate article) that Admins deem to be significant, and there is no replacement resolution source that can be used, this question may be annulled.
This question resolves as annulled if Wikipedia permanently ceases publishing in Spanish or if Wikipedia shuts down permanently.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26643
|
Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?
|
The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.
See also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of Wikipedia articles first exceeds 2 million before September 15, 2024, according to [official internal statistics from Wikipedia](https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas).
The "Número de artículos" statistic on that page will be used as the resolution source.
Fine Print: If the location of the statistics page changes, Admins will locate another resolution source from Wikipedia or credible sources. If none exist, the question will be **annulled**.
If Wikipedia implements a change in its methodology of counting articles (for example, counting Talk pages as a separate article) that Admins deem to be significant, and there is no replacement resolution source that can be used, this question may be annulled.
This question resolves as annulled if Wikipedia permanently ceases publishing in Spanish or if Wikipedia shuts down permanently.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-15T11:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26642
|
Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?
|
The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.
See also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of Wikipedia articles first exceeds 2 million before October 1, 2024, according to [official internal statistics from Wikipedia](https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas).
The "Número de artículos" statistic on that page will be used as the resolution source.
Fine Print: If the location of the statistics page changes, Admins will locate another resolution source from Wikipedia or credible sources. If none exist, the question will be **annulled**.
If Wikipedia implements a change in its methodology of counting articles (for example, counting Talk pages as a separate article) that Admins deem to be significant, and there is no replacement resolution source that can be used, this question may be annulled.
This question resolves as annulled if Wikipedia permanently ceases publishing in Spanish or if Wikipedia shuts down permanently.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26641
|
Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?
|
While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates.
Biden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) "I had a bad night." On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.
The second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, "I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of formal, live debates held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024 is zero or 1. If the number is two or more, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: - The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.
- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.
- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.
- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.
- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.
- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:21:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26640
|
Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?
|
While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates.
Biden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) "I had a bad night." On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.
The second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, "I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a formal, live debate is held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024.
Fine Print: - The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.
- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.
- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.
- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.
- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.
- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-11T01:09:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26639
|
Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?
|
While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates.
Biden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) "I had a bad night." On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.
The second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, "I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of formal, live debates held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024 is greater than one. If the number is zero or 1, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: - The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.
- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.
- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.
- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.
- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.
- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26638
|
Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?
|
In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is expected to make it easier for courts to strike down agency regulations.
The Clean Air Act, originally passed in 1970, is the primary federal law regulating air pollution in the United States. The EPA has used its authority under the Act to regulate a wide range of air pollutants, including setting national air quality standards, requiring pollution controls on industrial facilities and vehicles, and more recently, regulating greenhouse gas emissions.
Numerous [lawsuits](https://apnews.com/article/epa-rules-lawsuit-soot-pollution-gop-55aef43c4942e99a48db65d034a88377) are currently pending that challenge various EPA regulations promulgated under the Clean Air Act. With Chevron overturned, courts may be more willing to second-guess the EPA's interpretation of the statute and strike down Clean Air Act regulations. Major court decisions limiting the Act's scope could significantly impact US air pollution and climate policy.
This question aims to assess whether the overturning of Chevron will lead to major court decisions gutting key Clean Air Act provisions before the end of 2026.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, a U.S. federal court (including the Supreme Court, Courts of Appeals, or District Courts) issues a ruling that:
Strikes down, invalidates, or significantly limits the scope of a major provision of the Clean Air Act, and
Explicitly cites the Supreme Court's June 2024 decision overturning the Chevron doctrine as a substantial factor in its reasoning.
The court's decision must be a final ruling, not a preliminary injunction or procedural order. If no such ruling is issued before October 1, 2024, the question resolves as **No**
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question, a "major provision" of the Clean Air Act is one that has broad applicability and significant impact on US air pollution regulation. Examples could include, but are not limited to, provisions related to:
- National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
- New Source Performance Standards (NSPS)
- New Source Review (NSR)
- Greenhouse gas regulation under the Act
Any later court rulings, such as appeal judgments that overturn the judgment of an earlier court, are immaterial to the resolution of this question: the question resolves immediately if a U.S. federal court rules in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor. The question does not re-resolve differently if an appellate court later determines that judgment to have been unconstitutional, unlawful, or otherwise incorrect.
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-27T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-27T20:54:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26611
|
Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?
|
Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.
[Glaringly absent](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/27/biden-trump-no-hand-shake-presidential-debate/74238160007/) in the 90-minute showdown between Biden and Trump was the [traditional](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109452062.html) debate handshake; the two candidates did nothing to acknowledge each other until the debate began. However, with a new candidate, the reluctance to shake hands may disappear. Trump shook hands with Hillary Clinton in 2 of their 3 debates in 2016, while neither Trump nor Harris shook hands with their opponents in 2020 due to COVID.
There is little personal relationship between the candidates. Trump [donated to Harris’s campaign](https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/elections-verify/trump-harris-donation-6000-california-attorney-general-campaign/536-3dd86c7f-48df-40c9-aae4-aa89e7ce454a) in 2011 and 2013 when she was Attorney General of California, but has more recently [labeled her privately](https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-caught-on-video-claiming-broken-down-joe-biden-has-quit-its-kamala) as “pathetic” and “so f**king bad”. Likewise, Harris has [likened Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/harris-hold-1st-rally-presidential-campaign-milwaukee/story?id=112196550) to “predators”, “fraudsters” and “cheaters” in her opening attacks as a candidate.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **No**.
If no formal, live debates are held between Trump and Harris, this question will be **annulled**.
Fine Print: - "Shake hands" is defined using the Merriam-Webster [definition](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handshake): *a clasping usually of right hands by two people (as in greeting or farewell)*. Therefore other forms of greeting such as a fist bump, elbow bump, or hug will not count.
- A handshake between the candidates at a non-debate event is not sufficient for a Yes resolution.
- The handshake must be clearly verifiable through photographic or video evidence.
- The handshake must occur during the actual live debate period. Any handshakes that occur outside the debate period, such as a pre-recorded promo video at the top of the broadcast, would not count.
|
2024-07-29T11:30:00Z
|
2024-11-04T17:00:00Z
|
2024-09-11T01:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26577
|
Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?
|
[H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. Recently, four human cases have been reported among U.S. dairy workers and seven among poultry workers (including one case from 2022). Despite the low public health risk at present, the CDC is closely monitoring the situation in collaboration with state health departments to track individuals with animal exposure. The CDC's influenza surveillance systems are in place to detect H5N1 activity in humans. As of now, 11 human cases have been reported in the United States since 2022, with ten of those occurring between April 1, 2024, and July 22, 2024, following exposure to dairy cows and poultry, with one case from poultry exposure in 2022.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the cumulative number of human cases of H5 reported by the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States, since the first case in 2022 and as of October 1, 2024.
Fine Print: Cases do not need to be confirmed as H5N1 to count, the question will resolve as the "Total Reported Human Cases in the United States" or closest equivalent available on October 1, 2024.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26576
|
Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?
|
[H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. Recently, four human cases have been reported among U.S. dairy workers and seven among poultry workers (including one case from 2022). Despite the low public health risk at present, the CDC is closely monitoring the situation in collaboration with state health departments to track individuals with animal exposure. The CDC's influenza surveillance systems are in place to detect H5N1 activity in humans. As of now, 11 human cases have been reported in the United States since 2022, with ten of those occurring between April 1, 2024, and July 22, 2024, following exposure to dairy cows and poultry, with one case from poultry exposure in 2022.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the cumulative number of human cases of H5 reported by the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States, since the first case in 2022 and as of October 1, 2024.
Fine Print: Cases do not need to be confirmed as H5N1 to count, the question will resolve as the "Total Reported Human Cases in the United States" or closest equivalent available on October 1, 2024.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T13:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26575
|
Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?
|
[H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. Recently, four human cases have been reported among U.S. dairy workers and seven among poultry workers (including one case from 2022). Despite the low public health risk at present, the CDC is closely monitoring the situation in collaboration with state health departments to track individuals with animal exposure. The CDC's influenza surveillance systems are in place to detect H5N1 activity in humans. As of now, 11 human cases have been reported in the United States since 2022, with ten of those occurring between April 1, 2024, and July 22, 2024, following exposure to dairy cows and poultry, with one case from poultry exposure in 2022.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the cumulative number of human cases of H5 reported by the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States, since the first case in 2022 and as of October 1, 2024.
Fine Print: Cases do not need to be confirmed as H5N1 to count, the question will resolve as the "Total Reported Human Cases in the United States" or closest equivalent available on October 1, 2024.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T13:37:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26573
|
Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?
|
Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.
Each year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.
This year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.
Fine Print: Seeding group 2 includes:
* Canada
* Belgium
* New Zealand
* Scotland
* Denmark
* Switzerland
* Greece
* Italy
* Ireland
* Finland
Seeding group 3 includes:
* South Africa
* Romania
* Norway
* Iceland
* Wales
* Northern Ireland
* Israel
* Czechia
* Latvia
* Bulgaria
Seeding group 4 includes:
* Portugal
* Luxembourg
* Cyprus
* Mexico
* China
* Andorra
* Singapore/Thailand
* South Korea
* Slovakia
* Malta
For the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-12T00:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26572
|
Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?
|
Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.
Each year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.
This year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if USA, Sweden, England, or France is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.
Fine Print: Seeding group 2 includes:
* Canada
* Belgium
* New Zealand
* Scotland
* Denmark
* Switzerland
* Greece
* Italy
* Ireland
* Finland
Seeding group 3 includes:
* South Africa
* Romania
* Norway
* Iceland
* Wales
* Northern Ireland
* Israel
* Czechia
* Latvia
* Bulgaria
Seeding group 4 includes:
* Portugal
* Luxembourg
* Cyprus
* Mexico
* China
* Andorra
* Singapore/Thailand
* South Korea
* Slovakia
* Malta
For the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-12T00:12:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26571
|
Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?
|
Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.
Each year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.
This year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if Germany is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.
Fine Print: Seeding group 2 includes:
* Canada
* Belgium
* New Zealand
* Scotland
* Denmark
* Switzerland
* Greece
* Italy
* Ireland
* Finland
Seeding group 3 includes:
* South Africa
* Romania
* Norway
* Iceland
* Wales
* Northern Ireland
* Israel
* Czechia
* Latvia
* Bulgaria
Seeding group 4 includes:
* Portugal
* Luxembourg
* Cyprus
* Mexico
* China
* Andorra
* Singapore/Thailand
* South Korea
* Slovakia
* Malta
For the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-12T00:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26570
|
Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?
|
Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.
Each year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.
This year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if Poland is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.
Fine Print: Seeding group 2 includes:
* Canada
* Belgium
* New Zealand
* Scotland
* Denmark
* Switzerland
* Greece
* Italy
* Ireland
* Finland
Seeding group 3 includes:
* South Africa
* Romania
* Norway
* Iceland
* Wales
* Northern Ireland
* Israel
* Czechia
* Latvia
* Bulgaria
Seeding group 4 includes:
* Portugal
* Luxembourg
* Cyprus
* Mexico
* China
* Andorra
* Singapore/Thailand
* South Korea
* Slovakia
* Malta
For the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-12T00:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26569
|
Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?
|
From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends)
This record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)
As of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2σ level of the 1982-2011 mean.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the ["Daily Sea Surface Temperature, North Atlantic" chart](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)—accessible when choosing "North Atlantic" from the "Area Selection" dropdown menu at the link—shows the 2024 line graph surpassing 2023's peak temperature record of 25.4 C set on August 31, 2023, for any day before October 1, 2024. The question will resolve when the data for September 30 is first available on the chart and accessed by Metaculus.
Fine Print: ClimateReanalyzer's chart runs on a 1-to-2 day lag. Secondly, all data is preliminary for two weeks. For the sake of this question, we are using the preliminary data for the resolution.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-06T19:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26568
|
Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?
|
On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast).
Ukraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:
>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.
>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.
Please see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024:
48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
If this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)
2. Scroll down to the interactive map.
3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.
4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
This question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:
- Assessed Russian Control
- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine
- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine
This question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:
- Areas with no coloration
- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.
Fine Print: * The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.
* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for "48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E".
- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26555
|
Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
|
The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics.
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-11T16:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26554
|
Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?
|
The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019. A possible third one, CNEOS 2014-01-08, is [disputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08).
Although only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera C. Rubin Observatory](https://rubinobservatory.org/) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a newly discovered interstellar object receives an ["I" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available "[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)" data, this question resolves when the formal "interstellar" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26553
|
Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?
|
Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).
The August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started." The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)
In an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from "various experts" including restructuring advisors, its "goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need."
In recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if there is an 8-K filing stating that the entity filing with the SEC under the Central Index Key (CIK) number 46207 ([here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=46207&owner=exclude)) has filed or intends to file a petition in bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation before September 30, 2024.
Fine Print: This question concerns Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., not its parent company Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. Therefore, if Hawaiian Electric Company files for bankruptcy but not its parent, this would resolve as Yes.
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T22:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26552
|
Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?
|
In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.
A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose.
These senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.
Senescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).
One major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial.
You can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Food and Drug Administration (or its successor body if current FDA ceases to exist) approves a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the US before September 30, 2024. The approval must be given before September 30, 2024, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date.
For the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a "'senolytic therapy" if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.
This question will resolve as No if no such therapy is approved before September 30, 2024. If the FDA is dissolved before approval is granted, and no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it before September 30, 2024, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26551
|
Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?
|
Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded. Neobrokers like Robinhood or Freetrade have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like Nubank, which is currently valued over $100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in Latin America. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.
Revolut has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut [has a banking licence](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/) for the EEA (European Economic Area), which was granted by the Bank of Lithuania. However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK, limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as an "[e-money institution](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/)" in the UK.
Two of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/) into one. However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6).
Additional resources:
- From the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)
[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if before September 30, 2024, Revolut secures a [banking license](https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/financial-services-register) from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), either directly or through indirect means such as authorisation to acquire another bank or company already holding a UK banking license.
The question resolves based on any formal announcement from the FCA (or other UK regulatory entity able to grant a banking license) or from other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Revolut will be obtaining a banking license. This must be a full license (i.e. not a provisional one).
If no such announcement is made before September 30, 2024, thes question will resolve negatively.
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T18:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26530
|
Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.
Despite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting cryptocurrencies in donations for US presidential campaigns), Bitcoin's price dropped over the months, reaching its local minimum of $53,905.56 on July 5.
It has recovered in July, reaching above $69,000 on July 29.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than $73,750.07 and the date of ATH is between July 30 and October 1, 2024.
In case the resolution source is no longer available or in the event of ambiguous data, another resolution source, such as [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/all-time-high-crypto) may be also used to determine the result.
Fine Print: Since the price of Bitcoin varies on different exchanges, it is possible that different statistics sites mention slightly different values for ATH.
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T10:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T14:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26526
|
Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?
|
Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia.
Some of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Despite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.
In July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.
The state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form.
If the message returned is: "доступ ограничивается к странице" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.
If the message returned is: "По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is *not* included in the blocklist and this question resolves as **No**.
This question also resolves as **Yes** if YouTube is blocked in Russia according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: Note that the shortened version, `youtu.be` is already included in the blocklist, and this site does NOT trigger the resolution.
Metaculus admins may also use another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if they have reasons to believe that the Roskomnadzor site's data are inaccurate.
Changes in the phrasing used by Roskomnadzor's blocklist site will not affect resolution of this question, since the question resolves based on whether access to YouTube is limited or restricted according to Roskomnadzor, regardless of the exact wording.
|
2024-08-05T11:19:00Z
|
2024-09-30T10:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T04:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26408
|
Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?
|
In recent years, Turkey experienced high inflation, climbing [up to 85%](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi) at peak, and 68% year-on-year as of April, 2024. Due to high inflation, Turkish government diverged from its policy of yearly increases in minimum wage, and increased minimum wage twice in [2022 and 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_Turkey). The last minimum wage increase was [on January, 1, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-raises-monthly-minimum-wage-by-49-2024-2023-12-27/), when wages rose by 50%. However, it was already [partially eaten by inflation](https://stockholmcf.org/turkeys-hunger-threshold-exceeds-minimum-wage/). The share of workers receiving minimum wage is estimated to be between [33% and 50%](https://www.intellinews.com/turkey-s-minimum-wage-becoming-average-wage-protest-unions-304930/#:~:text=Around%2050%25%20of%20workers%20in,to%20DISK%20chair%20Arzu%20Cerkezoglu.).
Recently the ruling party of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lost in local elections, in what has been described as a "[historic victory](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/01/turkey-elections-chp-imamoglu-erdogan-akp-israel-iran-consulate-syria/)" for the opposition. There has been speculation that this might spark populist policies such as an increased minimum wage, but in April 2024 the Turkish Labor and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan [said](https://www.duvarenglish.com/turkish-labor-minister-rules-out-second-minimum-wage-hike-in-2024-news-64217) about a possible second minimum wage hike, "We have no such agenda. We will continue as we decided at the beginning."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report before September 30, 2024, that another minimum wage increase was going to take effect in Turkey in 2024. Wage increases that are approved before September 30, 2024, but taking effect in 2025 (e.g., starting January, 1, 2025) do not count towards resolution. If no such report is made before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Increases of any size, no matter how small, count towards the resolution of this question.
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26407
|
Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
|
According to the ISW:
> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent
[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.
[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)
> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a "huge mobilization reserve" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.
> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.
As of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).
Related Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before September 30, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) (ISW) reports that a second wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. If this event does not happen, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: - For this resolution, "mobilization" is defined as the formal conscription or summoning of reservists by the Russian government, as explicitly recognized and reported by ISW. This includes actions officially declared by the government such as a "partial mobilization." However, this does not include unofficial recruitments often referred to as "[crypto-mobilization](https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/75547/what-is-crypto-mobilization)" or "self-mobilization," or any form of volunteer enlistment. The resolution will rely solely on ISW’s characterization of the mobilization as formally acknowledged by the Russian government.
- If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.
- ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question. If ISW ceases to operate or ceases to publish the relevant updates following the launch of this question, it may resolve as Annulled. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications. However, unless ISW’s coverage on the topic is discontinued in this manner, if no official mobilization is reported by ISW before September 30, 202, then this question will resolve as No.
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T21:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26406
|
Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?
|
A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new variants [nicknamed](https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1767884323938869586?t=NM6QgCzjQYBje9-ZtyxSvg) as the FLiRT variants after the F456L + R346T spike protein where this variant shows changes. The new variants have raised concerns of a potential [summer COVID surge](https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240430/new-variant-sparks-summer-covid-surge-warning).
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:
>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.
The underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospital admissions per 100,000 people for COVID-19 between the weeks ending June 1, 2024, and August 31, 2024, (inclusive) exceeds 3.5 according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The CDC uses "epidemiological weeks" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters.
To allow for data revisions and reporting delays, the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the figure for August 31, 2024, is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.
Fine Print: * The following filters will be selected:
* **Chart Selection:** "Season"
* **View:** "Weekly Rates"
* **Season:** "2023-24" (or whichever selections will encompass the dates in question)
* **Pathogen:** "All" (Note that you can also filter to only show the pathogen of interest. Regardless, only the value corresponding to the listed pathogen will be used.)
* This question is asking about the global maximum weekly rate, the highest value reached during the specified period.
* In the event the data reporting is missing for more than two of the weeks included in the period when the question is expected to resolve, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-20T23:27:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26405
|
Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?
|
Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 hurricane, was the first major hurricane of the 2024 season. On July 2, 2024, it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record to form. Colorado State university [is forecasting](https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) 6 major storms for 2024 as of July 19, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of major hurricanes in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season stands at greater than or equal to five before September 30, 2024, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) [website](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc). If the number is less than five when the NHC website is accessed by Metaculus on September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
The National Weather Service [considers](https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson) a major hurricane to be anything Category Three or above, defined as having a 1-minute average of wind speeds greater than 110 mph (>95 knots or >177 km/hr).
Fine Print: If the official NHC page is inaccessible or there is reason to believe its data is incorrect, another resolution source may be used.
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26404
|
Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?
|
According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/):
>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if, before September 30, 2024, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26392
|
Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?
|
On May 13, 2024, OpenAI announced its latest flagship model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) family, GPT-4o. Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) announcing the existence of GPT-5. Otherwise it resolves as **No**. Metaculus admins will be consulted should there be any ambiguity.
Fine Print: * For the purposes of this question GPT-5 will be considered to exist if the document published by OpenAI describes some performance results from GPT-5 or states that GPT-5 has been created. A reference to progress in training or developing GPT-5 would not qualify on its own. If OpenAI publishes some performance results from GPT-5 and states that GPT-5 is still undergoing some form of training or testing this question will resolve as **Yes**.
* The model must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces a model called "GPT-5" or claimed to be a successor to GPT-4 but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will **not** be sufficient.
* If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was [previously described as GPT-5](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-building-next-generation-ai-173047260.html).
|
2024-07-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26391
|
Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?
|
The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023.
Current reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:
### 7/11/2024
Times of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)
Axios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)
### 7/10/2024
Axios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel)
Washington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)
CBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to "square one"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)
### 7/8/2024
Reuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)
CNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)
### 7/7/2024
The Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)
### 11/5/2008
The Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)
Resolution Criteria: For this question to resolve as "Yes", Israel and Hamas must, before August 31st, 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement.
If there is a violation of an agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, this is not enough alone to resolve "No". The question will only resolve "No" if:
- There was no agreement that was signed (or otherwise took effect) at least by August 30th at 11:59PM PDT, or
- Said agreement did not start effect at least by September 29, 2024 at 11:59PM PDT, or
- Said agreement did not end up lasting >=30 days by October 4th at 11:59PM PDT.
Fine Print: If both Israel and Hamas announce unilateral ceasefires (or any other such pauses) that are in effect at the same time, this will be considered "an agreed-upon pause" for the purposes of this question, and the 30-day count will begin from the day the latter of the two goes into effect.
Attacks by or on other parties (e.g., non-Hamas Palestinian groups in Gaza) will not be considered violations of the agreement for the purposes of this question.
A one-sided victory without concession or surrender by the other party will not be considered "an agreed-upon pause" and will not count toward resolution. Any other cessation of fighting without an agreement will also not count toward resolution.
Credit to [Infer-Pub](https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1353-will-there-be-an-agreed-upon-pause-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-hamas-that-starts-before-1-december-2024-and-lasts-at-least-30-days) for inspiring the resolution criteria.
|
2024-07-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-31T13:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26390
|
Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?
|
US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html).
The Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.
On the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if at any point between now and before September 30, 2024, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.
The question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/) under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.
Whatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does not resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).
Fine Print: In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example: If Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.
Positive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.
So if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positively.
|
2024-07-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-28T12:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26389
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?
|
According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019.
The September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 30, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.
The primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable.
Fine Print: This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before September 30, 2024, as long as the announcement is made before then.
|
2024-07-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-18T18:26:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26388
|
Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
Tennis at the Olympics has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Fine Print: The type of medal does not matter, nor does it whether the doubles medal is in the athlete's own gender only or mixed.
|
2024-07-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-06T00:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26387
|
Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?
|
In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 443,956 vehicles delivered for the third quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 443,956 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected October 2, 2024. If Tesla does not report these numbers before October 16, 2024, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-07-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:54:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26307
|
Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?
|
The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.
Below is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**
<iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;" allowTransparency="true" loading="lazy"></iframe>
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for August 2024 is greater than 4.1%. Otherwise it resolves as **No**. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2024 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).
Fine Print: This number is [scheduled](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to be released on September 6, 2024, at 8:30 AM Eastern.
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-06T12:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26306
|
Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?
|
According to Bloomberg:
>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 500th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) has a net worth of $6.00B or greater when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading).
Fine Print: For purposes of this question, the 500th-ranked or 500th-richest person on the list is considered to be the poorest person on the list. Therefore if the list contains fewer than 500 people on September 16, 2024, it will resolve based on the poorest person on the list. If the list contains more than 500 people, it will resolve based on the 500th-ranked person.
If Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
Admins resolving this question will not round up. Specifically, if the 500th ranked is under $10B then the ones digit in the billions place must be 6 or greater (for example., $6.0000B would count, but $5.9999B would not).
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T21:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26305
|
Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?
|
Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. These are:
Association football
Basketball 5×5
Basketball 3×3
Field hockey
Handball
Rugby sevens
Volleyball
Water polo
(Beach volleyball is listed on the source but excluded from the question because two teams from each team can qualify, unlike the other sports.)
Will the women's teams of the same nation win at least two of these sports?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as No if women's teams representing eight different National Olympic Committees (NOC) win gold in the eight team sports - association football, 3×3 basketball, 5×5 basketball, field hockey, handball, rugby sevens, voleyball and water polo.
Otherwise, the same NOC must have won at least two of these events, so the question resolves as **Yes**.
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-11T15:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26304
|
Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?
|
After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was "listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed.
The protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors.
See Also
- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />
- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />
- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before October 1, 2024, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**.
If Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.
In cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26303
|
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?
|
As large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are concerned that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.
This question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses LLMs will arise before Sept 30, 2024.
For the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:
At least one person is killed
There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage
a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if credible sources report that a major cyberattack, virus, or worm that uses LLMs results in any of the following:
At least one person is killed
There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage
a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.
If none of these scenarios occur before Sept 30, 2024, this question will resolve negatively.
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26302
|
Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?
|
Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested.
A more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the January 6 United States Capitol attack which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:
>1. At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
>2. At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
>3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.
Such events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the [1992 LA riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots) would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.
Resolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26236
|
Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
In the last three Summer Olympics, the number of world records broken was:
London 2012: 32
Rio de Janeiro 2016: 23
Tokyo 2020: 27
In '24, will 24 or more records be broken?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of world records broken during the Paris Olympics is 24 or greater.
Fine Print: If the record for the same event is broken more than once - for example, in the qualifying and final - both records count.
Some sports like rowing have conditions that are inherently not fully reproducible between different Games; these are not listed as having "world records" but "world bests", and do not count.
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-11T16:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26235
|
Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?
|
In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):
>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.
>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.
>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.
Astute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before September 17, 2024 the Warren Buffett Indicator exceeds 200%, as reported at the [Longtermtrends website](https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/), specifically the *Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio* on that page. If before that date the Warren Buffett Indicator has not exceeded 200%, this question resolves as No.
The figures can be viewed either on the chart itself or by viewing the CSV, XLX, or data table. As of July 10, 2024, the most recent figure displayed in the data table was 196.20375072862052 for July 8, 2024.
Fine Print: The Warren Buffett indicator will be considered to have exceeded 200% only if it reaches a value of 200.00000000000001 or higher. Any value below 200 in the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio column of the data table, even 199.99999999999999, will not be considered as exceeding 200%.
In cases in which the chart might show 200.00% and the data table shows a value higher than that (for example 200.0000000000001) the data table will take precedence when it comes to resolution.
If the numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted in a timely manner, the question will wait for resolution until September 30, 2024. If on that date the Warren Buffet Indicator numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted, this question will resolve based on the most recent numbers.
If the Longtermtrends website stops tracking the Warren Buffett Indicator, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-18T12:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26234
|
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?
|
An outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Type A, subtype H5N1 was [reported in dairy cattle](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) for the first time on March 25, 2024 in the United States by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and soon thereafter a human tested positive for H5N1 which was [announced by the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) April 1, 2024.
With this recent jump to an abundant mammal like cattle, [there is concern](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148696) that further evolution in the virus could result in it becoming easily transmittable between humans, a scenario that could result in a pandemic of the virus. This sort of zoonotic origin pandemic is not unprecedented, of course [COVID-19 is believed to have made the jump from pangolins to humans](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9874793/) and in a much more similar scenario, the [2009 H1N1 pandemic](https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm) was caused by a virus similar to what was detected circulating in pigs, earning it the nickname “Swine Flu”. Both of these were declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization, with the H1N1 outbreak being declared a [PHEIC on April 25, 2009](https://web.archive.org/web/20090502155343/http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090425/en/) and COVID-19 declared a [PHEIC on January 30, 2020](https://web.archive.org/web/20210815071616/https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-%282019-ncov%29). If an HPAI virus were to evolve to spread in sustained human-to-human transmission and become an outbreak, then there would be reason for the WHO to declare it a PHEIC.
Such a declaration would be a milestone prior to the the outbreak being considered a pandemic, as we saw with H1N1 and COVID-19.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, prior to Sept 30, 2024, an outbreak of a virus classified as a “Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza” presenting in humans is declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization. If this PHEIC declaration does not happen prior to Sept 30, 2024, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: - A PHEIC must be declared and is verifiable through common communication channels of the WHO such as its website or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)
- Any type or subtype of Avian influenza is acceptable to meet this criteria, such as H5N1 or H7N9.
- The PHEIC must be declared as a result of a human outbreak, not in response to an animal outbreak of the virus or the effects of the virus spreading in non-human species (i.e. shortages of food).
- Sustained human-to-human transmission is not necessarily a requirement to resolve this question as a Yes.
- Declarations by the CDC or other health organizations are not acceptable to resolve as a Yes.
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26233
|
Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?
|
**Deadpool & Wolverine** is an upcoming blockbuster by Marvel Studios scheduled to be released on July 26, 2024 featuring the two iconic heroes from the X-Men Universe.
The recent projection from Deadline puts the domestic opening to [$160-$165 million](https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-opening-projection-1236000799/), which would not only be the best opening year-to-date (beating **Inside Out 2** with $154 million) but also a record start for an R-rated movie.
Another projection from June was even higher, [at $200+ million](https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545/).
The ticket seller Fandango [reported on May 21](https://www.gamespot.com/articles/deadpool-and-wolverine-has-strongest-day-one-ticket-pre-sales-in-franchise-history-at-fandango/1100-6523599/) that their ticket pre-sales for the movie were the site's biggest ones in 2024 up to date.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office opening for the **Deadpool & Wolverine** reported by Boxofficemojo on the [movie's page](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) is higher than $185,548,391 which is the sum of the box openings for **Deadpool** (2016) and **The Wolverine** (2013): $132,434,639 + $53,113,752.
Fine Print: Metaculus admins may wait additional time or use another resolution source if there are reasons to doubt the data on the Boxofficemojo page.
If the movie is not released in the US until 26 August 2024 the question will become **annulled**.
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-29T20:06:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26232
|
Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?
|
[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a "government-designated monopoly over domain registration." According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):
>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It’s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.
>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.
The Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.
According to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden’s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the *.com* generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: "Sunsets" is defined as the DOC choosing to let the agreement expire without renewal.
"Terminates" is defined as the DOC providing written notice of non-renewal
of the agreement with Verisign.
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-05T16:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26216
|
Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?
|
[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.
Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900.
***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before Sept 15, 2024, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation.
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-15T11:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26215
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?
|
In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war.
Currently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if there is any nuclear detonation as an act of war between January 1, 2020 and Sept 30, 2024. Resolution will be by credible media reports. The detonation must be deliberate; accidental, inadvertent, or testing/peaceful detonations will not qualify (see fine print). Attacks using strategic and tactical nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.
Fine Print: [Barrett et al. 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) defined terms to distinguish between causes of nuclear detonations:
>In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.
>In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.
>In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T00:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26214
|
Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?
|
On March 25, 2024, the USDA [reported](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15, 2024.
On April 25, 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [announced](https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/updates-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-hpai) that it had conducted tests of retail milk and found one in five of the samples contained highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viral fragments. In an April 26 update the FDA described testing 297 retail dairy samples from 38 states, and in a subsequent update on May 10 confirmed the results of final egg inoculation tests showing that none of the HPAI H5N1 virus samples were viable.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows according to CDC's [Current H5N1 Bird Flu Situation in Dairy Cows](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) when accessed by Metaculus on Oct 1, 2024, exceeds 200 and is less than 300 dairy herds affected.
Fine Print: * If Metaculus assesses that the CDC page or a similar CDC page in a different location has not received necessary updates (as opposed to not being updated to a lack of additional H5N1 cases) within the past seven days the resolution may instead be based on [information provided by the USDA](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) or other credible sources, if available. If Metaculus assesses that up-to-date information (of a similar methodology to that presented by CDC as of May 15, 2024) is not available the questions will be **annulled**.
* Metaculus will defer to the methodology presented on the CDC page when resolving, though if multiple methodologies are available (such as distinguishing suspected outbreaks from confirmed outbreaks) the question will resolve based on the methodology Metaculus assesses to be most similar to that used on May 15, 2024. According to the [USDA page](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) the information shown as of May 15 is based on confirmed cases.
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:18:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26213
|
Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?
|
On March 25, 2024, the USDA [reported](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15, 2024.
On April 25, 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [announced](https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/updates-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-hpai) that it had conducted tests of retail milk and found one in five of the samples contained highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viral fragments. In an April 26 update the FDA described testing 297 retail dairy samples from 38 states, and in a subsequent update on May 10 confirmed the results of final egg inoculation tests showing that none of the HPAI H5N1 virus samples were viable.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows according to CDC's [Current H5N1 Bird Flu Situation in Dairy Cows](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) when accessed by Metaculus on Oct 1, 2024, is less than 300 dairy herds affected. If the number is 300 or greater, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: * If Metaculus assesses that the CDC page or a similar CDC page in a different location has not received necessary updates (as opposed to not being updated to a lack of additional H5N1 cases) within the past seven days the resolution may instead be based on [information provided by the USDA](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) or other credible sources, if available. If Metaculus assesses that up-to-date information (of a similar methodology to that presented by CDC as of May 15, 2024) is not available the questions will be **annulled**.
* Metaculus will defer to the methodology presented on the CDC page when resolving, though if multiple methodologies are available (such as distinguishing suspected outbreaks from confirmed outbreaks) the question will resolve based on the methodology Metaculus assesses to be most similar to that used on May 15, 2024. According to the [USDA page](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) the information shown as of May 15 is based on confirmed cases.
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:17:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26212
|
Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?
|
On March 25, 2024, the USDA [reported](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15, 2024.
On April 25, 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [announced](https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/updates-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-hpai) that it had conducted tests of retail milk and found one in five of the samples contained highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viral fragments. In an April 26 update the FDA described testing 297 retail dairy samples from 38 states, and in a subsequent update on May 10 confirmed the results of final egg inoculation tests showing that none of the HPAI H5N1 virus samples were viable.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows according to CDC's [Current H5N1 Bird Flu Situation in Dairy Cows](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) when accessed by Metaculus on Oct 1, 2024, exceeds 200 dairy herds affected. If the number is 200 or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: * If Metaculus assesses that the CDC page or a similar CDC page in a different location has not received necessary updates (as opposed to not being updated to a lack of additional H5N1 cases) within the past seven days the resolution may instead be based on [information provided by the USDA](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) or other credible sources, if available. If Metaculus assesses that up-to-date information (of a similar methodology to that presented by CDC as of May 15, 2024) is not available the questions will be **annulled**.
* Metaculus will defer to the methodology presented on the CDC page when resolving, though if multiple methodologies are available (such as distinguishing suspected outbreaks from confirmed outbreaks) the question will resolve based on the methodology Metaculus assesses to be most similar to that used on May 15, 2024. According to the [USDA page](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) the information shown as of May 15 is based on confirmed cases.
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-28T16:02:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26211
|
Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record has risen to 6.24m, set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024.
With Braz suspended from the current Games, will his record be broken Duplantis or another competitor?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the winning height of the men's pole vault at the 2024 Paris Olympics is 6.04m or higher.
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-06T00:39:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26196
|
On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?
|
The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 200 and less than or equal to 300, according to the CDC's cases and outbreaks page here: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-04T17:39:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26195
|
On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?
|
The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 300, according to the CDC's cases and outbreaks page here: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-04T17:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26194
|
On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?
|
The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 200, according to the CDC's cases and outbreaks page here: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-28T14:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26193
|
Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024?
|
ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate, presumably between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, although the final nominees have not yet been determined at the time of this question's creation. "World News Tonight" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis are slated to moderate the debate, with rules and location still to be determined. The first presidential debate was widely considered a [debacle](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html) for Biden, leading some to speculate on whether there will be a second debate
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a debate which includes the Republican and Democratic nominees for President of the United States as participants takes place on September 10, 2024, as is [currently scheduled](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-is-second-presidential-debate-2024/) for 9 PM Eastern Time on that date, hosted by ABC News.
If there is no such debate on that date, whether because it has been rescheduled, canceled or one or both of the Republican or Democratic nominees has declined to participate, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If a different entity other than ABC News hosts the debate, it will still count, as long as a debate takes place.
It will still count if third party or other candidates participate, as long as the Republican and Democratic nominees participate.
If the debate is rescheduled for a different time on September 10, 2024, it will still count as long as any part of the debate happens on September 10, 2024 local time. If it gets rescheduled for any other date, however, this question will resolve as No.
Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-11T01:10:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26192
|
Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?
|
On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US president Donald Trump was [shot during an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump). Several shots were fired, and Trump was struck in the ear by one bullet, receiving treatment at a local hospital and being [released later that day](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/possible-shots-fired-at-trump-rally-in-butler-pennsylvania/). [One bystander died in the shooting](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce586kxjvnyo) and two were seriously injured. The [shooter was killed by the Secret Service](https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooter-881581c46c07025898027143fc9132e5) immediately after the assassination attempt.
In the wake of the assassination attempt observers have [raised questions](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1jz027nrzo) about the quality of protection provided by the [US Secret Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service), the agency charged with the protection of political leaders. Some observers [have asserted](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/14/secret-service-trump-shooting-rally-00168158) that the lack of security around the nearby rooftop where the gunman opened fire, including the perception of a [slow response](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/15/trump-gunman-forced-policeman-to-back-off-in-rooftop-confro/) when bystanders tried to get the attention of nearby police due to seeing the gunman climbing on the roof prior to the assassination attempt.
[Kimberly Cheatle](https://www.secretservice.gov/about/leadership/director) has been Director of the US Secret Service since September 2022.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kimberly Cheatle remains Director of the United States Secret Service continuously through the end of September 30, 2024, Eastern Time. The question will resolve as **No** if before October 1, 2024, there has been an official announcement from the government that Cheatle is no longer the director, including temporarily.
Fine Print: * In the event of a temporary suspension of duties, for example if Cheatle were put on administrative leave, or if an acting Director of the US Secret Service who is not Cheatle is appointed for any reason, the question will also resolve as **No**.
* An official public confirmation is required, rumors or reporting from anonymous sources that Cheatle has been placed on administrative leave are not sufficient.
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T20:16:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26191
|
Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?
|
Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness-as-7th-lawmaker-calls-on-him-to-quit-race) as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate or even to [serve out his second term](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4765107-adam-smith-doubts-biden-second-term/) if re-elected. Two weeks later, on July 11, 2024, NBC News reported a dire situation for Biden's campaign, with his campaign staffers doubting he had a tangible path toward winning the general election and his campaign's fundraising efforts taking a hit. Additionally, on July 11th Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden-house-democrats-call-drop-out) 11 Democratic House members and 1 Senator having publicly urged Biden to drop out, with more lawmakers planning to join them.
The [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention) will be held August 19 to 22, 2024. Typically the convention is where the nomination of a presidential candidate occurs, though Democrats could [potentially hold a virtual vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-nominate-joe-biden-virtual-vote-before-convention-despite-turmoil-2024-07-15/) in late July to select the nominee.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 22, 2024, any of these four events takes place with respect to the 2024 US presidential election, resolved in accordance with the Metaculus [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) policy:
1. President Joe Biden or his campaign announces that Biden will not seek or accept the Democratic Party's nomination or (if he is officially nominated before August 22, 2024), Biden resigns as the nominee.
2. Biden officially releases his delegates from their [pledge](https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024) to vote for him in the Democratic Party's presidential roll call ballot.
3. Biden endorses another person to be the Democratic nominee.
4. Biden ceases to be President of the United States.
If none of these events occur before August 22, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: This question will not resolve as No before August 22, 2024, which is the final day of the Democratic National Convention and is the traditional day in which the party's presidential nominee makes their acceptance speech. So for example, if Biden becomes the official nominee through a virtual roll call vote held before the Convention, this question will remain open and can still resolve as Yes if Biden subsequently announces that he is stepping down as the nominee.
Actions such as canceling campaign events that are merely suggestive of Biden withdrawing his candidacy are insufficient for a Yes resolution.
A temporary suspension of Biden's campaign will not count.
With respect to point #2 in the main Resolution Criteria, spontaneous remarks by Biden about his delegates, such as his recently saying at a press conference that delegates are "free to do whatever they want" but "it's not gonna happen" do not count as officially releasing delegates from their pledge. A Yes resolution would require a formal statement or action from the Biden-Harris Campaign officially releasing the pledged delegates in the presidential roll call.
As stated in Metaculus's credible source policy, there must be "no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness." Therefore, false announcements, hacks, or misleading information will not count.
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T20:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26189
|
Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have athletes competing in multiple events. Will the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024 Olympic gold medals competes in the swimming events.
Fine Print: If more than one athlete is tied for the most gold medals, this question resolves as **Yes** as long as at least one of them is a swimmer. All references to "being a swimmer" in this question mean "competing in a swimming event"; a gymnast e.g. who can swim does not count.
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-11T16:36:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26175
|
Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?
|
On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US president Donald Trump was [shot during an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump). Several shots were fired, and Trump was struck in the ear by one bullet, receiving treatment at a local hospital and being [released later that day](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/possible-shots-fired-at-trump-rally-in-butler-pennsylvania/). [One bystander died in the shooting](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce586kxjvnyo) and two were seriously injured. The [shooter was killed by the Secret Service](https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooter-881581c46c07025898027143fc9132e5) immediately after the assassination attempt.
In the wake of the assassination attempt observers have [raised questions](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1jz027nrzo) about the quality of protection provided by the [US Secret Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service), the agency charged with the protection of political leaders. Some observers [have asserted](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/14/secret-service-trump-shooting-rally-00168158) that the lack of security around the nearby rooftop where the gunman opened fire, including the perception of a [slow response](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/15/trump-gunman-forced-policeman-to-back-off-in-rooftop-confro/) when bystanders tried to get the attention of nearby police due to seeing the gunman climbing on the roof prior to the assassination attempt.
[Kimberly Cheatle](https://www.secretservice.gov/about/leadership/director) has been Director of the US Secret Service since September 2022.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kimberly Cheatle remains Director of the United States Secret Service continuously through the end of September 30, 2024, Eastern Time. The question will resolve as **No** if before October 1, 2024, there has been an official announcement from the government that Cheatle is no longer the director, including temporarily.
Fine Print: * In the event of a temporary suspension of duties, for example if Cheatle were put on administrative leave, or if an acting Director of the US Secret Service who is not Cheatle is appointed for any reason, the question will also resolve as **No**.
* An official public confirmation is required, rumors or reporting from anonymous sources that Cheatle has been placed on administrative leave are not sufficient.
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T13:00:00Z
|
2024-07-23T14:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26173
|
Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?
|
After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was "listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed.
The protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. Later Ruto reinstated some of the dismissed cabinet members, and [appointed some members of the opposition](https://apnews.com/article/kenya-william-ruto-cabinet-anti-government-protests-8b56ed967f0280c2af594c54971e3e0b) on July 24.
See Also
- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />
- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />
- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before October 1, 2024, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**. This 30 day period must complete before October 1, 2024, otherwise the question will resolve as **No** if the other criteria have not been met.
If Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.
In cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.
|
2024-07-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T16:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T15:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26159
|
Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?
|
In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes.
As AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather.
[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.
The [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index ("Kp") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.
Fine Print: * Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. In the resolution source, Kp values are rounded to the nearest thousandth.
|
2024-07-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-29T12:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26158
|
Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?
|
In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes.
As AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather.
[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.
The [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index ("Kp") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.
Fine Print: * Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. In the resolution source, Kp values are rounded to the nearest thousandth.
|
2024-07-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-29T12:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26157
|
Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?
|
In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes.
As AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather.
[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.
The [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index ("Kp") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.
Fine Print: * Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. In the resolution source, Kp values are rounded to the nearest thousandth.
|
2024-07-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-29T12:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
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