id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-26819 | Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024? | [TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes.
In recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/... | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T17:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26818 | Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024? | [TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes.
In recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/... | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T17:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26817 | Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024? | The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing... | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26816 | Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.
[Gla... | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T01:03:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26781 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was "listening keenly t... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26780 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.
Despite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26779 | Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/).
Typically,... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26778 | Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/).
Typically,... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26777 | Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/).
Typically,... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26776 | Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/).
Typically,... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26775 | Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T13:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26774 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T13:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26773 | Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T13:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26772 | Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T13:04:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26771 | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the "2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ" and... | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T13:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26753 | Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025? | In Venezuela's [disputed](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner with 51.2% of the vote, despite allegations of irregularities and fraud by the opposition... | 2024-07-31T13:00:00Z | 2025-02-01T04:59:00Z | 2025-01-10T05:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26752 | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | In the aftermath of Venezuela's [disputed presidential election](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) on July 28, 2024, where incumbent Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner, the government has begun investigating opposition leaders. The ju... | 2024-07-31T12:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-09-03T04:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26751 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44... | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-09-01T15:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26706 | Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO? | Stripe, which reported processing a full 1% of global GPD in its most recent [annual letter](https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2023), has long been speculated to be planning an IPO. In February 2024, it announced that its employees could cash out their privately-held shares.
Resolution Criteria: This question will re... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26705 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?
| According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/), "The iPhone 16 models are expected to include a new thermal design that will combat overheating. Apple is said to be working on a graphene thermal system for the iPhone 16 models, and the iPhone 16 Pro models may also include a metal battery casing... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T17:06:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26704 | Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024? | As of July 10, 2024, the 248th through 251st rankings came from the Energy sector. The 252nd came from Finance, the 253rd came from Energy, and the 254th through 256th rankings also came from Finance.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index ... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T21:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26703 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024? | Venezuela and Guyana have long had a rocky relationship. Their border defined by mutual agreement in 1897 began being questioned by Venezuela [in 1962](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela_relations). In 2023, [Venezuela drafted a public referendum](https://youtu.be/Btqc9Kch980) on whether to further ... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T16:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26702 | Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024? | Coinmarketcap.com is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at the total market cap, i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth.
Resolution Criteria: On July 25, 2024, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurr... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-29T21:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26701 | Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024? | Coinmarketcap.com is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at the total market cap, i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth.
Resolution Criteria: On July 25, 2024, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurr... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-29T21:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26700 | Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024? | Coinmarketcap.com is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at the total market cap, i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth.
Resolution Criteria: On July 25, 2024, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurr... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-29T21:18:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26683 | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | [Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.
Conversely, prio... | 2024-07-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-11T18:20:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26671 | Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition? | After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), centrist Together and far-right National Rally.
Will the Prime Minister on August 31 come from President Emmanuel Macron's Together alliance?
Resolution Criteria: Thi... | 2024-07-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T13:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26670 | Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI? | After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), centrist Together and far-right National Rally.
Will the Prime Minister on August 31 come from the NFP but not its furthest-left member LFI?
Resolution Criteria: This... | 2024-07-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T13:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26669 | Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party? | After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front, centrist Together and far-right National Rally.
Will the Prime Minister on August 31 come from France Unbowed (LFI), the furthest-left party in the NFP coalition?
Resolutio... | 2024-07-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T13:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26668 | On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election? | JD Vance was officially nominated as the 2024 Republican vice presidential candidate on July 17, 2024. Shortly after that, President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and his vice president, Kamala Harris, became the presumptive nominee. Since then, footage has resurfaced of Vance referring to "childless c... | 2024-07-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T16:52:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26667 | Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024? | *Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*
---
In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the exi... | 2024-07-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26666 | Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024? | [Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to present audits show... | 2024-07-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26665 | Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?
| According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/), "With the iPhone 16, Apple could introduce a high-end iPhone 16 "Ultra" that would be sold alongside the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max. The device would be positioned as the top-of-the-line iPhone offering, and it ... | 2024-07-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26651 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:
- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflat... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T10:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T15:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26646 | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as "the world's fastest man".
The [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usai... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-04T20:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26645 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?
| [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords):
> The Abraham Accords are a series of joint normalization statements initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, effective since September 15, 2020.
The Accords were later joined by Morocco (2020) and Sudan (2021). As part o... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T19:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26644 | Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024? | The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](http... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26643 | Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024? | The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](http... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-15T11:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26642 | Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024? | The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](http... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26641 | Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024? | While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe B... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:21:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26640 | Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024? | While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe B... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T01:09:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26639 | Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024? | While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe B... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26638 | Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor? | In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is e... | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-27T20:54:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26611 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.
[Gla... | 2024-07-29T11:30:00Z | 2024-11-04T17:00:00Z | 2024-09-11T01:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26577 | Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024? | [H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. Recently, four human cases have been reported among U.S. dairy workers and seven among poultry workers (including one case from 2022). Despit... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26576 | Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024? | [H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. Recently, four human cases have been reported among U.S. dairy workers and seven among poultry workers (including one case from 2022). Despit... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T13:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26575 | Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024? | [H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. Recently, four human cases have been reported among U.S. dairy workers and seven among poultry workers (including one case from 2022). Despit... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T13:37:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26573 | Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currentl... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-12T00:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26572 | Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currentl... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-12T00:12:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26571 | Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currentl... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-12T00:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26570 | Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currentl... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-12T00:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26569 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends)
This record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-06T19:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26568 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.polit... | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26555 | Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat spor... | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-11T16:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26554 | Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?
| The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO obse... | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26553 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024? | Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).
The August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii kil... | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26552 | Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024? | In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.
A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells... | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26551 | Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?
| Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded. Neobrokers like Robinhood or Freetrade have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock ma... | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T18:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26530 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.
Despite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T10:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T14:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26526 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia.
Some of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked s... | 2024-08-05T11:19:00Z | 2024-09-30T10:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26408 | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?
| In recent years, Turkey experienced high inflation, climbing [up to 85%](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi) at peak, and 68% year-on-year as of April, 2024. Due to high inflation, Turkish government diverged from its policy of yearly increases in minimum wage, and increased minimum wage twice in [2022 a... | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26407 | Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | According to the ISW:
> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent
[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai... | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T21:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26406 | Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people? | A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#varia... | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-20T23:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26405 | Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024? | Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 hurricane, was the first major hurricane of the 2024 season. On July 2, 2024, it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record to form. Colorado State university [is forecasting](https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) 6 major storms for 2024 as of July 19, 2024.
Resolution... | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26404 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024? | According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/):
>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) ... | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26392 | Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?
| On May 13, 2024, OpenAI announced its latest flagship model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) family, GPT-4o. Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a document (e.g., a blog post,... | 2024-07-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26391 | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024? | The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023.
Current reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, althou... | 2024-07-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T13:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26390 | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?
| US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [h... | 2024-07-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-28T12:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26389 | Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024? | According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019.
The September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.... | 2024-07-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T18:26:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26388 | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Tennis at the Olympics has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Ol... | 2024-07-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-06T00:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26387 | Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? | In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than... | 2024-07-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:54:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26307 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024? | The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 u... | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-06T12:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26306 | Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024? | According to Bloomberg:
>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.
Resolution Criteria: This questi... | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T21:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26305 | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. These are:
Association football
Basketball 5×5
Basketball 3×3
Field hockey
Handball
Rugby sevens
Volleyball
Water polo
(Beach volleyball is list... | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-11T15:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26304 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was "listening keenly t... | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26303 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024? | As large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are concerned that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.
This question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses... | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26302 | Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024? | Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested... | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26236 | Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | In the last three Summer Olympics, the number of world records broken was:
London 2012: 32
Rio de Janeiro 2016: 23
Tokyo 2020: 27
In '24, will 24 or more records be broken?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of world records broken during the Paris Olympics is 24 or greater.
Fine P... | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-11T16:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26235 | Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?
| In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):
>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the coun... | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T12:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26234 | Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024? | An outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Type A, subtype H5N1 was [reported in dairy cattle](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) for the first time on March 25, 2024 in the United States by the Center for Disease Control... | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26233 | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | **Deadpool & Wolverine** is an upcoming blockbuster by Marvel Studios scheduled to be released on July 26, 2024 featuring the two iconic heroes from the X-Men Universe.
The recent projection from Deadline puts the domestic opening to [$160-$165 million](https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-openin... | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-29T20:06:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26232 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | [Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with ... | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-05T16:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26216 | Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024? | [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The pri... | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-15T11:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26215 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024? | In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close c... | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T00:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26214 | Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds? | On March 25, 2024, the USDA [reported](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.... | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:18:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26213 | Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds? | On March 25, 2024, the USDA [reported](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.... | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:17:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26212 | Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds? | On March 25, 2024, the USDA [reported](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.... | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-28T16:02:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26211 | Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record has risen to 6.24m, set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024.
With Braz suspended from the current Games, will his record be broken Duplantis or another competitor?
Resol... | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-06T00:39:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26196 | On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024? | The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 200 and less th... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-04T17:39:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26195 | On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024? | The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 300, according ... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-04T17:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26194 | On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024? | The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 200, according ... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-28T14:32:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26193 | Will there be a US presidential debate held on September 10, 2024? | ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate, presumably between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, although the final nominees have not yet been determined at the time of ... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T01:10:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26192 | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US president Donald Trump was [shot during an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump). Several shots were fired, and Trump was struck in the ear by one bullet, receiving treatment at a local hospi... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T20:16:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26191 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T20:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26189 | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have athletes competing in multiple events. Will the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-11T16:36:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26175 | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US president Donald Trump was [shot during an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump). Several shots were fired, and Trump was struck in the ear by one bullet, receiving treatment at a local hospi... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T13:00:00Z | 2024-07-23T14:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26173 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was "listening keenly t... | 2024-07-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T16:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T15:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26159 | Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6? | In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may... | 2024-07-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-29T12:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26158 | Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5? | In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may... | 2024-07-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-29T12:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26157 | Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6? | In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may... | 2024-07-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-29T12:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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