id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-28022 | Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024? | As of September 8, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped August 12, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at SpaceX's Updates page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.spacex.com/updates/), timestamped after the close of this question and before Oc... | 2024-09-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:28:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28021 | Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024? | As of September 9, 2024, the Yankees and Orioles both had 82 wins.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees have more wins than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 regular season, as shown by the Major League Baseball [standings tracker](https://www.mlb.com/standings/) when checked ... | 2024-09-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28020 | Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024? | Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS.
Unfortunately, since inception, this Boein... | 2024-09-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28008 | Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac? | The 30-year fixed rate mortgage according to the resolution sounce as of September 8, 2024 was 6.35%.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage exceeds 6.35% at the Freddie Mac tracker page at [this location](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms), when accessed by Metaculus A... | 2024-09-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28007 | Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024? | The national price of a gallon of gasoline is listed by AAA as $3.273 as of September 8, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the national price of gasoline ("Today’s AAA National Average") exceeds $3.250 at the AAA tracker page at [this location](https://gasprices.aaa.com/), when accessed b... | 2024-09-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T19:47:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28006 | Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump? | Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are currently scheduled for a presidential debate on September 10, 2024. Harris is well-known for saying "I'm speaking" in response to her debate opponents trying to interrupt her, such as in her 2020 vice presidential debate against Mike Pence. Notably, however, the microphones are curre... | 2024-09-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T12:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28002 | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out ... | 2024-09-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-10-07T22:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28000 | Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024? | The Boar's Head listeria outbreak began in July 2024, causing [9 deaths](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/listeria-outbreak-left-57-sick-9-dead/story?id=113276874) linked to the outbreak. According to the USDA's [latest announcement](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024) recalling and additional 7 million additional... | 2024-09-17T11:00:00Z | 2024-11-30T17:00:00Z | 2024-11-06T05:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27995 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was "likely" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company h... | 2024-09-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-10-01T14:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27969 | Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series? | Fargo is on FX. Other contenders are: Baby Reindeer (Netflix), Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+), Ripley (Netflix), True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series Fargo wins the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. The resolu... | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T12:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27968 | Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards? | Taylor Swift has, at the time of this question, been nominated for the following 10 awards: Video of the Year, Song of the Year, Artist of the Year, Best Collaboration, Best Pop, Best Visual Effects, Best Editing, Best Direction, Best Art Direction, and Best Cinematography.
Resolution Criteria: "This question resolves... | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T11:23:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27967 | Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla? | Tesla had two layoff events listed in April 2024, one for its charging team and one for an announced layoff round of 10% of its global workforce. Tesla has come under stress recently as its sales growth in its automotive segment have lagged.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech ... | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27966 | Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024? | On August 30, 2024, Greystone Logistics, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1088413/000143774924028106/glgi20240829_nt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended May 3... | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-14T02:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27961 | Will a UWF student create a bot for the AI Forecasting Benchmark Series by 2025? | Learn more about the [AI Forecasting Benchmark Series here](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves 'yes' if at least one UWF student creates a bot account and it makes at least one forecast before 2025. | 2024-09-04T21:42:00Z | 2024-12-31T18:00:00Z | 2025-01-28T03:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27935 | Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024? | China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17perc... | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-20T11:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27934 | Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024? | China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17perc... | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-20T11:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27933 | Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024? | China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17perc... | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-20T11:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27932 | Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024? | China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17perc... | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-20T11:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27920 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | A third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia [is scheduled](https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41513/) to begin in Ankara, Turkey on September 17, 2024. The second round [ended](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/second-round-somalia-ethiopia-talks-turkey-ends-with-no-deal-progress-made-2024-08-13/) on August... | 2024-09-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27919 | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | [The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that
> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on d... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27918 | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, [according to The Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):
> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-07T16:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27914 | Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series? | The Bear is on FX. Other nominees are: Abbott Elementary (ABC), Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Hacks (Max), Only Murders in the Building (Hulu), Palm Royale (Apple TV+), Reservation Dogs (FX), and What We Do in the Shadows (FX).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series The Bear wins the 202... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T12:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27913 | Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs? | Notable other nominees are "Seven" by Jungkook featuring Latto and "Lalalala" by Stray Kids.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if "Rockstar" by Lisa wins the Best K-Pop award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards
](https:/... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T11:21:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27912 | Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon? | Amazon had lay off events listed by Tech Crunch in January and February 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Amazon has l... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27911 | Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024? | On August 29, 2024, Catalent, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596783/000119312524211099/d887351dnt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, for Ca... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-14T02:21:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27898 | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | [The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that
> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on d... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T10:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T15:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27897 | Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | According to the ISW:
> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent
[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai... | 2024-09-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27895 | Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024? | After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observer... | 2024-09-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27887 | Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series? | Baby Reindeer is on Netflix. Other contenders are: Fargo (FX), Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+), Ripley (Netflix), and True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series Baby Reindeer wins the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series... | 2024-09-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T12:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27886 | Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards? | Taylor Swift has, at the time of this question, been nominated for the following 10 awards: Video of the Year, Song of the Year, Artist of the Year, Best Collaboration, Best Pop, Best Visual Effects, Best Editing, Best Direction, Best Art Direction, and Best Cinematography.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves ... | 2024-09-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T11:24:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27885 | Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024? | On August 30, 2024, Super Micro Computer, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536524000031/smci-form12bx25nt10xkx2024.htm) of failure to file its annual report.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year en... | 2024-09-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T12:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27877 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024? | *This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*
This question aims to shed light on whether the gap between leading AI labs' models and open-source models is likely to grow, shrink, or stay roughly the same.
Throughout the last couple of... | 2024-09-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27876 | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024? | In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the [eastern frontline](https://archive.ph/ABnN0), though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties controlling Russian advances in DONETSK Obl... | 2024-09-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27804 | Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024? | Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.
He left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram m... | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27797 | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, [according to The Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):
> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-09T10:00:00Z | 2024-09-06T22:06:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27791 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024? | According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/):
>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) ... | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27790 | Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?
| On May 13, 2024, OpenAI announced its latest flagship model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) family, GPT-4o. Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a document (e.g., a blog post,... | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T17:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27789 | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?
| US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [h... | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-28T12:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27788 | Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? | In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than... | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27783 | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Dr. Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to to the Whitehouse” model has predicted most if not all of the presidential election winners in the last 40 years. Despite this track record of success, his model is not the only robust election prediction model and in 2024, the circumstances in America can only be described as “unique”. Wi... | 2024-09-03T13:28:00Z | 2024-09-20T23:29:04.250000Z | 2024-11-07T01:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27749 | Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.
The four finalists are:
- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://w... | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-08T22:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27748 | Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.
The four finalists are:
- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://w... | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-08T22:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27747 | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.
The four finalists are:
- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://w... | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-08T22:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27746 | Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.
The four finalists are:
- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://w... | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-08T22:58:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27745 | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 202... | 2024-08-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T12:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27733 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. "World News Tonight" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linse... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T01:07:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27732 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked t... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27723 | Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs? | Notable other nominees are "Dilemma" by Green Day, "Mustang" by Kings of Leon, and "Atomic City" by U2.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay wins the Best Rock award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MT... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T00:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27722 | Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia? | Nvidia has not had a layoff event in 2024 according to the resolution source. Although Nvidia has had layoff events in the past, over the years its CEO, Jensen Huang, has publicly stated a strong aversion to layoffs many times. Nvidia is notable for having a reputation of engaging in fewer layoffs compared to its large... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27721 | Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024? | Hydrogen fuel cell company Plug Power has faced financial challenges recently. From its recent SEC filings: "At the time of the issuance of the Company’s 2023 third quarter Form 10-Q, conditions existed that raised substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern."
Resolution Criteria: This... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27720 | Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024? | As of Aug 27, 2024, Jensen Huang had a net worth of $112 B according to Forbes. The 10th place ranked Amancio Ortega was listed as having a net worth of $123 B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27713 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked t... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-10-01T15:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27711 | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 202... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-09-11T03:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27642 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | A third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia [is scheduled](https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41513/) to begin in Ankara, Turkey on September 17, 2024. The second round [ended](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/second-round-somalia-ethiopia-talks-turkey-ends-with-no-deal-progress-made-2024-08-13/) on August... | 2024-09-04T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-10-01T15:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27641 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. "World News Tonight" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linse... | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T00:00:00Z | 2024-09-11T01:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27640 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia.
Some of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked s... | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T12:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27639 | Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024? | On July 10, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 7 were from the United States. On the entire list, 189 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this... | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T21:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27638 | Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram? | As of the launch of the question, neither Meta, Facebook nor Instagram had any listings at the resolution source. Previously Meta/Facebook has done significant rounds of layoffs in 2023 and 2022.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024... | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:16:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27637 | Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs? | Notable other nominees are "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay, "Mustang" by Kings of Leon, and "Atomic City" by U2.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if "Dilemma" by Green Day wins the Best Rock award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MT... | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T00:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27629 | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the [eastern frontline](https://archive.ph/ABnN0), though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties controlling Russian advances in DONETSK Obl... | 2024-08-29T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2025-01-09T18:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27625 | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.
He left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram m... | 2024-08-27T18:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T09:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T15:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27610 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024? | As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png" />
The Institute for the Study of War has made the fol... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27609 | Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024? | As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png" />
The Institute for the Study of War has made the fol... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27608 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024? | As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png" />
The Institute for the Study of War has made the fol... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27607 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024? | As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png" />
The Institute for the Study of War has made the fol... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27606 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024? | As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png" />
The Institute for the Study of War has made the fol... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27605 | Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024? | [The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter) is a long time upcoming book by bestseller author [George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin). It is the sixth and planned penultimate volume of the ["A Song of Ice and Fire"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ic... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27604 | Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024? | On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).
> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, "The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its r... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27603 | Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024? | On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).
> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, "The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its r... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27602 | Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024? | On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).
> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, "The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its r... | 2024-08-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-27T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27584 | Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024? | On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).
> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, "The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its r... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27583 | Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024? | On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).
> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, "The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its r... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27582 | Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024? | On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).
> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, "The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its r... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27581 | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024? | > **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**
>
> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.
>
> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defec... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27576 | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Israel Lose International Support for Its Campaign in Gaza?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-Lose-International-Support-for-its-Campaign-Against-Hamas)*
---
Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has seen [growing internation... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27548 | Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024? | In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assess... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27547 | Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024? | In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assess... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27546 | Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024? | In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assess... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27545 | Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024? | In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assess... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T17:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27539 | Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024? | Resolution Criteria: Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict ... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T00:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27538 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024? | On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T00:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27524 | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024? | On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days.
After 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain.
... | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27523 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024? | After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.... | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27522 | Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024? | During the women's floor exercise final at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Jordan Chiles of the United States initially finished in fifth place. However, her coach filed an inquiry regarding her difficulty score, which resulted in Chiles being awarded an additional tenth of a point, moving her into third place and earning her... | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27521 | Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024? | Claude 3.5 Sonnet surprised many in the field of AI by unseating OpenAI's GPT-4o as the world's leading large language model, by [numerous metrics](https://ai.plainenglish.io/anthropic-dominates-openai-a-side-by-side-comparison-of-claude-3-5-sonnet-and-gpt-4o-8cca145a466f), upon its release on June 20, 2024.
Regarding... | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27515 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | According to [Mac Rumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/07/10/iphone-16-pro-40w-fast-charging-20w-magsafe/):
>Apple's forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will support 40W wired fast charging and 20W MagSafe charging, claims a rumor currently swirling around China.
>Right now, iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro... | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-10T14:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27493 | Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more? | In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T12:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27492 | Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%? | In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T12:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27491 | Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%? | In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T13:15:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27490 | Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%? | In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T13:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27489 | Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%? | In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T12:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27488 | Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less? | In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T12:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27487 | Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting? | In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T18:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27486 | Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting? | In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T18:26:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27485 | Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting? | In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T18:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27484 | Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting? | In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T18:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27453 | Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster? | In Bangladesh, within a context of [democratic backsliding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_by_country#Bangladesh) and claimed Indian influence, a popular uprising of millions of people in the streets of Dhaka ejected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5.
[Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus](https:... | 2024-08-23T12:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T18:00:00Z | 2025-02-05T02:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27447 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, "Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his cam... | 2024-08-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T13:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27441 | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence? | > **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**
>
> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.
>
> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defec... | 2024-08-22T17:41:00Z | 2025-02-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-11-12T20:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27440 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | According to [Mac Rumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/07/10/iphone-16-pro-40w-fast-charging-20w-magsafe/):
>Apple's forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will support 40W wired fast charging and 20W MagSafe charging, claims a rumor currently swirling around China.
>Right now, iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro... | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-10T13:00:00Z | 2024-09-09T18:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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