id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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meta-27346 | Will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) send a delegation to the current round of Geneva peace talks by August 24, 2024? | On August 14, 2024, a new round of peace talks aimed at addressing Sudan's ongoing conflict began in Geneva, Switzerland. These talks are led by the United States with support from Switzerland and Saudi Arabia, and are scheduled to last up to ten days, potentially concluding on August 24, 2024.
The talks aim to achieve... | 2024-08-16T17:00:00Z | 2024-08-24T21:59:00Z | 2024-08-25T11:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27341 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, "Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his cam... | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-10-01T15:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27313 | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in [2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election_in_... | 2024-08-19T11:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T04:59:00Z | 2024-11-07T13:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27312 | Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season? | The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics.
... | 2024-08-18T11:00:00Z | 2024-09-29T19:00:00Z | 2024-09-22T21:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27311 | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Artificial intelligence has been a recurring theme in the 2024 election, with for example Republican nominee Donald Trump [accusing](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/11/trump-harris-rally-crowd-ai-conspiracy.html) Kamala Harris's campaign of using AI to create fake crowd pictures at her August 7, 2024 rally.
In March 202... | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-22T22:00:00Z | 2024-08-23T03:10:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27310 | Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)? | Hurricane Ernesto (05L) is being monitored as it approaches Bermuda, with potential for significant financial damage. This question seeks to determine whether total damages, including infrastructure, property, and utility costs, will exceed $200 million.
Please see also:
- [Hurricane Ernesto churns toward Bermuda as... | 2024-08-16T00:15:00Z | 2024-08-19T16:00:00Z | 2024-09-01T17:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27289 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.... | 2024-08-17T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:00:00Z | 2024-10-17T21:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27283 | Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian? | Rivian had lay off events in February and April 2024, cutting its workforce by 10% and 1%, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoff... | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27282 | Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024? | Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested... | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27281 | Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?
| In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):
>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the coun... | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T12:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27279 | On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024? | The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 300 and less th... | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27278 | On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024? | The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 300, according ... | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27277 | On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024? | The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 400, according ... | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27263 | Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7? | In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may... | 2024-08-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T23:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27262 | Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8? | In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may... | 2024-08-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T23:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27261 | Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8? | In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may... | 2024-08-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27260 | Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024? | Big Lots, Inc. runs a chain of discount stores selling items for the home. Founded in 1967, it has run with operating losses for two years in a row and is currently on a trajectory to have negative equity on its balance sheet.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Big Lots, Inc. files any peti... | 2024-08-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-10T01:06:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27259 | Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix? | At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech ... | 2024-08-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27258 | Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes? | As of July 16, 2024, Jeff Bezos is ranked second on the list, with $209.7 B. Elon Musk is first, with $252.3B. Bernard Arnault & family is ranked third, with $177.4 B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billi... | 2024-08-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27248 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx):
>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b)... | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27241 | Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024? | Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than... | 2024-08-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-27T18:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27240 | Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024? | Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than... | 2024-08-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-27T18:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27239 | Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024? | Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than... | 2024-08-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-27T18:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27238 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:
- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflat... | 2024-08-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27223 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png" />
[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27222 | On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced "[up to 18 m... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27221 | On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast? | On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced "[up to 18 m... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27220 | On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast? | On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced "[up to 18 m... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27219 | On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts? | On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced "[up to 18 m... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:04:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27209 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png" />
[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-10-01T15:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27203 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx):
>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b)... | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T16:00:00Z | 2024-09-30T20:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27200 | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):
>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of m... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-26T20:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27198 | Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024? | In what would be the first time since 1990, China faces the prospect of a net annual outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (otherwise known as inbound foreign direct investment) this year; this comes as FDI for the second quarter of 2024 [dropped by $15 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/f... | 2024-08-14T11:00:00Z | 2024-12-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-11-09T05:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27191 | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days.
After 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain.
... | 2024-08-18T11:00:00Z | 2024-12-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-12-01T05:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27161 | Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets? | After their 8-win 2023 season, the Denver Broncos cut Russell Wilson and drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th draft pick. They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-29T17:47:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27160 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024? | Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in ... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T18:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27159 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024? | On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T20:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27158 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions we... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T11:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27157 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b... | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27141 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024? | The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-an... | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T16:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27140 | Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)
be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024? | According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.... | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-23T20:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27138 | On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought... | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T19:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27137 | Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024? | Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from nei... | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27136 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024? | [The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
As of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](... | 2024-08-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T19:56:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27135 | Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet? | Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, "Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering." Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.
Resolution Criteria: This question ... | 2024-08-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27134 | Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024? | The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock mark... | 2024-08-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27133 | Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024? | While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe B... | 2024-08-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27132 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024? | On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [publ... | 2024-08-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:47:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27112 | Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24? | Anthropic announced a safety bug bounty program here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-safety-bug-bounty
Sam Bowman said he would bet at 25% odds that no universal jailbreak would be found, see: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369
"And the intent is for universal jailbreaks: To resolve the bet... | 2024-08-10T17:29:00Z | 2024-11-10T17:00:00Z | 2025-02-03T00:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27105 | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):
>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of m... | 2024-08-10T12:00:00Z | 2024-08-24T03:59:00Z | 2024-08-25T00:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27089 | Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?
| According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):
>Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes the iPhone 16 Pro models could adopt the net-generation WiFi 7 technology, which is expected to provide speeds of "at least 30" gigabits per second, and could hit up to 40Gb/s.
>Wi-Fi 7 is also able to use 320... | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-14T02:32:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27088 | Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024? | On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change... | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27087 | Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft? | Despite its financial health, as a large organizations with its hands in many pies, Microsoft frequently engages in layoffs, most recently in June 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [her... | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T11:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27086 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes? | As of July 16, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $252.3B. Jeff Bezos is ranked second, with $209.7 B. Bernard Arnault & family is ranked third, with $177.4 B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time... | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:24:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27085 | Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu? | In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials ... | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27039 | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):
>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghazia... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27029 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Previous vice presidential debates have been:
- October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence
- October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine
- October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan
- October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin
- October 5, 2004 between Dick Cheney and John Edwards
- Oct... | 2024-08-07T11:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T02:00:00Z | 2024-10-02T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-27024 | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):
>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghazia... | 2024-08-06T22:15:00Z | 2024-09-15T06:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27022 | Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024? | On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an u... | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T00:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27021 | Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat spor... | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-11T16:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27020 | Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO? | In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1,... | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T17:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27019 | Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024? | On August 2, 2024, Donald Trump posted on social media that he was terminating his agreement to appear at a September 10, 2024 debate hosted by ABC News, which had previously been agreed to between his campaign and Joe Biden. He claimed instead that he was going to debate Kamala Harris on September 4, 2024, in a debate... | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-05T11:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27018 | Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024? | Closed-source, domain-specific AI in 2024 came one point off gold on the 2024 [IMO](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/). However, this used a bespoke, proof-only neural network. Whereas, in this question, we consider ChatGPT-like systems: publicly-available, domain-gener... | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-27017 | Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024? | As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.
Joining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generall... | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26986 | Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft ac... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T11:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26985 | Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft ac... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T11:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26984 | Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft ac... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T11:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26983 | Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft ac... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T11:40:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26982 | Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft ac... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T11:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26981 | Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft ac... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-16T15:54:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26980 | Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024? | > [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-06T13:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26979 | Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024? | > [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-05T22:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26978 | Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024? | > [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26977 | Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024? | > [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-28T01:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26976 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | California's SB 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T13:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26975 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | The upper limit of the target range for the Fed Funds Rate currently sits at 5.50%, a 23-year high.
At its July 2024 meeting, the Fed [declined to cut rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm), stating:
> In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target... | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T12:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26962 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | California's SB 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/... | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T18:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T14:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26960 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | The upper limit of the target range for the Fed Funds Rate currently sits at 5.50%, a 23-year high.
At its July 2024 meeting, the Fed [declined to cut rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm), stating:
> In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target... | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T18:00:00Z | 2024-09-20T17:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26959 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates... | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26958 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia.
Some of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked s... | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26957 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [publ... | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-01T11:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26942 | Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025? | As of August 2024, bond markets are signaling increasing concerns about a potential US recession, driven by [weaker-than-expected economic data](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), particularly a disappointing July jobs report. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up in... | 2024-08-06T13:23:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2025-01-16T23:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26938 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates... | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T01:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T14:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26918 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024? | Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbolla... | 2024-08-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-23T20:08:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26916 | Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024? | As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presid... | 2024-08-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:47:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26915 | Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024? | As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presid... | 2024-08-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-01T18:03:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26914 | Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024? | As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presid... | 2024-08-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26913 | Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024? | As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presid... | 2024-08-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-06T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-01T18:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26898 | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | On July 28, Venezuela held Presidential elections, but full results have not yet been published by the [National Electoral Council (CNE)](https://www.cne.gob.ve/) as of August 2. Hours after polling stations closed, the head of the CNE proclaimed the incumbent, Nicolás Maduro, the winner for a third term.
The oppositi... | 2024-08-04T11:00:00Z | 2024-08-12T04:00:00Z | 2024-08-12T07:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26896 | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Israel Lose International Support for Its Campaign in Gaza?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-Lose-International-Support-for-its-Campaign-Against-Hamas)*
---
Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has seen [growing internation... | 2024-08-19T16:45:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T16:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26859 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [publ... | 2024-08-05T08:42:00Z | 2024-09-01T03:59:42.272000Z | 2024-09-04T19:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26844 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44... | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-01T11:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26842 | Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO? | In its most recent funding round, OpenAI was valued at $80 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024,... | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T17:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26841 | Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024? | Spirit Airlines, a deep discount airline which has been unprofitable from an operating standpoint since the start of the 2020 pandemic, recently had a buyout from JetBlue rejected by antitrust regulators. As of Q2 2024 results it continues to face declining revenues and negative earnings and cash flows.
Resolution Cri... | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T22:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26840 | Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? | Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's production numbers have been as follows: 440,808 in Q1 2023, 479,700 in Q2 2023, 430,488 in Q3 2023, 494,989 in Q4 2023, 433,371 in Q1 2024, and 410,831 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 410,831 vehicles delivere... | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T17:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26839 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?
| According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):
>Rumors suggest the iPhone 16 Pro models will use stacked battery technology, which can result in higher capacity and a longer lifespan. Stacked batteries are common in electric vehicles and medical devices, but are an emerging technology for smar... | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T17:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26838 | Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024? | As of April 30, 2024, the median net worth on Bloomberg's BIllionaires Index [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20240430225424/https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) was $9.535B. On July 10, 2024, it was $10.0B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the median net worth on the Bloomberg Billionai... | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-16T21:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26837 | Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024? | According to the [Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/nation/kamala-harris-walkout-songs-katy-perry-womans-world-20240722.html):
>Katy Perry’s latest single, “Woman’s World,” flopped hard among listeners and critics when it premiered this month. Could Kamala Harris’ presidential run be ... | 2024-08-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-03T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26821 | Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024? | In the wake of President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 election, the presidential debates are uncertain, and so are the VP debates. At the time of this question, JD Vance is the Republican nominee for VP, and the Democratic nominee is still yet to be announced.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Ye... | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26820 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024? | [TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes.
In recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/... | 2024-07-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T17:23:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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