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meta-27346
|
Will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) send a delegation to the current round of Geneva peace talks by August 24, 2024?
|
On August 14, 2024, a new round of peace talks aimed at addressing Sudan's ongoing conflict began in Geneva, Switzerland. These talks are led by the United States with support from Switzerland and Saudi Arabia, and are scheduled to last up to ten days, potentially concluding on August 24, 2024.
The talks aim to achieve a ceasefire agreement between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. This follows previous rounds of negotiations held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which did not result in a lasting agreement.
As of the start of the talks on August 14, the SAF had not sent a delegation to Geneva. The SAF previously announced it would not attend, citing the RSF's failure to implement agreements made in Saudi Arabia. The RSF has sent a delegation to Geneva but has not actively participated in the negotiations as of the talks' commencement.
The participation of both the SAF and RSF is considered necessary for substantive progress towards a ceasefire and improved humanitarian access in Sudan. This question focuses specifically on whether the SAF will change its stance and send a delegation to participate in the current round of talks.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if, by 23:59:59 UTC on August 24, 2024:
1. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) sends an official delegation to the Geneva peace talks, AND
2. This delegation's participation is publicly acknowledged by Tom Perriello, the U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, via an announcement on the official Twitter/X account @USSESudan.
The question will resolve as "No" if the above conditions are not met by the specified deadline.
Fine Print: 1. If the talks conclude earlier than August 24, 2024, the resolution date will be adjusted to the final day of the talks.
2. If the talks are extended beyond August 24, 2024, the resolution criteria will still apply to the original end date of August 24, 2024.
3. Only official announcements from the @USSESudan account will be considered for resolution. Retweets or unofficial statements will not be sufficient.
4. If the @USSESudan account becomes unavailable or is renamed, an equivalent official U.S. government source acknowledging SAF participation will be accepted.
5. The physical presence of SAF representatives in Geneva is required for a "Yes" resolution. Virtual participation will not be considered sufficient.
6. In case of any ambiguity, I will make a final determination based on the best available information from reliable sources.
7. The possibility of a second round of talks at a later date does not affect the resolution of this question, which pertains only to the current round ending August 24, 2024.
8. The SAF's participation status will be evaluated independently of the RSF's current status (delegation present but not actively participating).
|
2024-08-16T17:00:00Z
|
2024-08-24T21:59:00Z
|
2024-08-25T11:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27341
|
Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, "Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles." As Newsweek [pointed out](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fire-campaign-managers-chris-lacivita-susie-wiles-1939578), however, Daily Mail had modified the story to be more guarded in its claims of Trump considering that option, and a Trump campaign spokesman said, "As President Trump said, he thinks Ms. Wiles and Mr. LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality."
In his past campaigns Trump fired [Corey Lewandowski](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump.html) in June 2016 (who by the way has [recently joined](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-campaign-brings-corey-lewandowski-back-on-board-00174155) Trump's 2024 campaign as an advisor). Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election.
In the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.
So far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, "As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, there is a [credible report](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that one or both of the following individuals is no longer campaign manager of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign:
- Chris LaCivita
- Susie Wiles
If there is no such report before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The addition of a new co-campaign manager will not affect resolution.
In addition to resigning or otherwise being terminated as campaign manager, credible reports that LaCivita or Wiles have been demoted to other positions within the Trump Campaign, such as senior advisor, will also resolve this question as Yes, since this question is asking whether they remain as campaign manager.
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T03:59:00Z
|
2024-10-01T15:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27313
|
Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?
|
Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in [2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas), while in [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) the equivalent number was close to 52% in both elections.
[Linear trend](https://i.imgur.com/0OybLvV.png), taking into account all the presidential elections since 2000, suggests that the Republican candidate would be close to the 50% mark in 2024 elections.
Additional consideration is the strength of third party candidates this cycle. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [has polled](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/texas/) in mid to high single digits in Texas, potentially stripping the Republican candidate of a majority of votes in the state. Ross Perot managed the feat in both [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) elections, though his vote share especially in 1992 was markedly higher.
Receiving under 50% of the vote in Texas – especially if it happens without a sizeable third party candidate – would mark another milestone in the journey of the Lone Star State towards being a battleground for future presidential cycles, even if the Republican candidate ends up winning the state in 2024, as is all but sure.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve "yes" if the nominated Republican presidential candidate receives over 50% of the vote as per [the official election results published by the Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/presidential.shtml) or [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on those results. If the number is under 50%, the question will resolve as "no."
|
2024-08-19T11:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T04:59:00Z
|
2024-11-07T13:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27312
|
Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?
|
The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics.
The 1962 Mets have the most losses in the "Modern Era" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.
The 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.
See [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.
Resolution Criteria: The Chicago White Sox's loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular, accounts of the 2024 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). If it is greater than or equal to 120 losses for 2024, this question resolves as **Yes**. Under 120 resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The White Sox are expected to play 162 regular season games in the 2024 season, just like all other Major League Baseball teams. If there is a cancelled game from the 162 game total (like one game in the 114 loss 2019 Detroit Tigers' season), then the cancelled game(s) for the Chicago White Sox will be counted as 0.65 of a loss per cancelled game, rounded to the nearest integer, for the purposes of this question's resolution.
The White Sox will also be awarded a loss in that manner if they were to play made-up games (outside of a league-wide stoppage outlined below) after Sunday, September 29, 2024, the scheduled 162nd game of the season against the Detroit Tigers.
If the 2024 MLB season is truncated, due to some extraordinary event, with 10 teams not playing 10 or more games in their schedule, then this question is **annulled**. One of teams has to be the White Sox or the cancelled or postponed games will be addressed through the 0.65 of a loss per cancelled game.
If the league (as opposed to the White Sox specifically) were to continue the 2024 regular season after the "extraordinary event" before November 1, 2024, the this question will have its resolution date extended to the date of the new scheduled conclusion of the regular season.
|
2024-08-18T11:00:00Z
|
2024-09-29T19:00:00Z
|
2024-09-22T21:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27311
|
Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?
|
Artificial intelligence has been a recurring theme in the 2024 election, with for example Republican nominee Donald Trump [accusing](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/11/trump-harris-rally-crowd-ai-conspiracy.html) Kamala Harris's campaign of using AI to create fake crowd pictures at her August 7, 2024 rally.
In March 2024, Vice President Harris [officially announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/28/fact-sheet-vice-president-harris-announces-omb-policy-to-advance-governance-innovation-and-risk-management-in-federal-agencies-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was creating a government-wide policy "to mitigate risks of artificial intelligence (AI) and harness its benefits." In November 2023, Harris gave [this speech](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/11/01/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence-london-united-kingdom/) on artificial intelligence. In [Trump's acceptance speech](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-accepting-the-presidential-nomination-the-republican-national-convention-milwaukee), he mentioned artificial intelligence once: "But A.I. needs tremendous — literally, twice the electricity that's available now in our country, can you imagine?"
The 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be held from Monday, August 19 through Thursday, August 22, with Harris [anticipated to speak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention#Fourth_night_(Thursday,_August_22)) on the final night.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamala Harris utters "artificial intelligence" or "A.I." during her nomination acceptance speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention. If she does not say either term, this question resolves as **No**.
Determination of whether she has said "artificial intelligence" or "A.I." will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus Admins. In cases of ambiguity they may consult a transcript from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the [American Presidency Project](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/app-categories/elections-and-transitions/convention-speeches). It is important to note, however, that in the absence of a clear utterance of either term, especially if it does not appear in a transcript per the credible sources policy linked above, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Other forms such as plural or possessive (including as a [verb](https://x.com/grady_booch/status/1822719224424632743)) will count, as long as the root is used.
Discussion of the subject matter, without actually using either term, will not count. Neither will synonyms such as "machine intelligence."
If Kamala Harris does not deliver a nomination acceptance speech at the 2024 DNC, this question will be annulled.
Mentions of "artificial intelligence" or "A.I." by anyone other than Harris will not count.
Mentions of the phrase before the speech has begun or after it has ended will not count.
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-22T22:00:00Z
|
2024-08-23T03:10:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27310
|
Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)?
|
Hurricane Ernesto (05L) is being monitored as it approaches Bermuda, with potential for significant financial damage. This question seeks to determine whether total damages, including infrastructure, property, and utility costs, will exceed $200 million.
Please see also:
- [Hurricane Ernesto churns toward Bermuda as Category 1 storm](https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-ernesto-churns-bermuda-category-1-storm/story?id=112854289)
- Accuweather: [Bermuda's resiliency to hurricanes dates back 300 years](https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bermudas-resiliency-to-hurricanes-dates-back-300-years/1680270)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the catastrophe modeling company [Core Logic](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/blogs/hazard-hq/), total estimated insurable losses to Bermuda from Hurricane Ernesto exceed $200 million, in US dollars. If damages are reported as less than $200 million, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Typically Core Logic has offered estimates of insured losses from hurricanes within a few days. For example, it recently published its [estimate](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/blogs/hazard-hq/hurricane-beryl-windward-islands/) for damage to Texas two days after Hurricane Beryl's landfall in the state. If Core Logic does not offer a hurricane damage estimate for Bermuda from Hurricane Ernesto before September 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.
This question's definition of "losses" will rely on Core Logic's methodology. According to Core Logic, regarding Hurricane Beryl:
>The estimated losses include wind-only damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, including damage to contents and business interruption. Insurable losses account for damage to all modeled exposure types prior to the application of any insurance terms (e.g., deductibles or limits). It does not include losses to any regional insurance pools
Currency Adjustment: If damage estimates are provided in a currency other than USD, they will be converted using the exchange rate on the date of the report.
In case of range estimates, the midpoint of the range will be used. For example, Core Logic recently estimated damage to Texas from Hurricane Beryl of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, which would have resolved to $3.0 billion.
This question resolves based on Core Logic's first published estimate; any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
|
2024-08-16T00:15:00Z
|
2024-08-19T16:00:00Z
|
2024-09-01T17:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27289
|
Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?
|
After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/middleeast/hamas-sinwar-ceasefire-netanyahu-intl/index.html), Sinwar favors a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. For its part, Israel [considers](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/) Sinwar to be an architect of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that took place on October 7, 2023. According to General Dan Goldfus of the Israeli Defense Forces, during one raid on the tunnels beneath Gaza, the IDF was "[minutes away](https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-coffee-was-still-hot-idf-general-says-troops-were-minutes-from-catching-sinwar/)" from capturing Sinwar.
Previous Chairmen of the Hamas Political Bureau have been:
- Khaled Mashal, April 17, 2004 to May 6, 2017.
- Ismail Haniyeh, May 6, 2017 to July 31, 2024.
- Yahya Sinwar, August 6, 2024 to present.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following events happen according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):
- Yahya Sinwar has stepped down or been replaced as Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.
- Sinwar is captured (even if he is still officially in the Chairman role).
- Sinwar has died.
The question will resolve as **No** if there is no such reporting of any of these events.
Fine Print: Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.
|
2024-08-17T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:00:00Z
|
2024-10-17T21:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27283
|
Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?
|
Rivian had lay off events in February and April 2024, cutting its workforce by 10% and 1%, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Rivian has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Rivian appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Rivian is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
According to Tech Crunch, "Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly." Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**.
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Rivian. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T23:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27282
|
Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?
|
Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested.
A more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the January 6 United States Capitol attack which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:
>1. At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
>2. At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
>3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.
Such events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the [1992 LA riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots) would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.
Resolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27281
|
Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?
|
In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):
>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.
>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.
>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.
Astute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before September 17, 2024 the Warren Buffett Indicator exceeds 200%, as reported at the [Longtermtrends website](https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/), specifically the *Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio* on that page. If before that date the Warren Buffett Indicator has not exceeded 200%, this question resolves as No.
The figures can be viewed either on the chart itself or by viewing the CSV, XLX, or data table. As of July 10, 2024, the most recent figure displayed in the data table was 196.20375072862052 for July 8, 2024.
Fine Print: The Warren Buffett indicator will be considered to have exceeded 200% only if it reaches a value of 200.00000000000001 or higher. Any value below 200 in the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio column of the data table, even 199.99999999999999, will not be considered as exceeding 200%.
In cases in which the chart might show 200.00% and the data table shows a value higher than that (for example 200.0000000000001) the data table will take precedence when it comes to resolution.
If the numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted in a timely manner, the question will wait for resolution until September 30, 2024. If on that date the Warren Buffet Indicator numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted, this question will resolve based on the most recent numbers.
If the Longtermtrends website stops tracking the Warren Buffett Indicator, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-18T12:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27279
|
On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?
|
The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 300 and less than or equal to 400, according to the CDC's cases and outbreaks page here: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T22:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27278
|
On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?
|
The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 300, according to the CDC's cases and outbreaks page here: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T22:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27277
|
On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?
|
The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. The page currently states that it it is updated biweekly.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if the number of measles cases reported to the CDC on Sept 30, 2024 is more than 400, according to the CDC's cases and outbreaks page here: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T22:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27263
|
Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?
|
In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes.
As AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather.
[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.
The [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index ("Kp") between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their [running 30-day history](https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_nowcast.txt) data product.
Fine Print: * Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. In the resolution source, Kp values are rounded to the nearest thousandth.
|
2024-08-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-11T23:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27262
|
Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?
|
In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes.
As AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather.
[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.
The [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index ("Kp") between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their [running 30-day history](https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_nowcast.txt) data product.
Fine Print: * Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. In the resolution source, Kp values are rounded to the nearest thousandth.
|
2024-08-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-11T23:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27261
|
Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?
|
In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes.
As AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather.
[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.
The [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index ("Kp") between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their [running 30-day history](https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_nowcast.txt) data product.
Fine Print: * Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. In the resolution source, Kp values are rounded to the nearest thousandth.
|
2024-08-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-12T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27260
|
Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?
|
Big Lots, Inc. runs a chain of discount stores selling items for the home. Founded in 1967, it has run with operating losses for two years in a row and is currently on a trajectory to have negative equity on its balance sheet.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Big Lots, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before October 1, 2024. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
Only petitions filed by Big Lots, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of its business (as judged by moderators) as of July 22, 2024, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.
|
2024-08-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-10T01:06:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27259
|
Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?
|
At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Netflix has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Netflix appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Netflix is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
According to Tech Crunch, ""Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly."" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. "
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Netflix. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
|
2024-08-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T23:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27258
|
Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?
|
As of July 16, 2024, Jeff Bezos is ranked second on the list, with $209.7 B. Elon Musk is first, with $252.3B. Bernard Arnault & family is ranked third, with $177.4 B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Jeff Bezos is in first or second place on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If there is a tie for second, this resolves as **No**. If Bezos is in a tie for first, this will resolve as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-08-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T22:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27248
|
Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx):
>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.
The first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).
In July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for mpox (also known as monkeypox), in a declaration made after August 12, 2024 and before October 1, 2024.
Either a new determination that a public health emergency exists as a consequence of mpox or a renewal of a previous one would count.
The resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page.
If there is no such HHS declaration of a PHE for mpox within the timeframe listed above, then this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27241
|
Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?
|
Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a "national renewal" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.
Starmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if the numerical value of Keir Starmer's approval rating (percentage of respondents who approve of his performance as Prime Minister) is less than 60 on September 18, 2024, as reported by the [Politico Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval) when first accessed by Metaculus.
Fine Print: - If Keir Starmer is not the Prime Minister of the UK at any point between August 13, 2024, and September 18, 2024, inclusive, this question is **Annulled**.
- The "Smooth" version of the polling data should be used, not the "Kalman" version, unless it is no longer available.
- The Politico Poll of Polls is an aggregate of recent polls from major, reputable polling organizations in the UK. If the Politico Poll of Polls data for September 18 is not available before October 4, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-08-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-27T18:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27240
|
Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?
|
Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a "national renewal" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.
Starmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if the numerical value of Keir Starmer's approval rating (percentage of respondents who approve of his performance as Prime Minister) is less than 50 on September 18, 2024, as reported by the [Politico Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval) when first accessed by Metaculus.
Fine Print: - If Keir Starmer is not the Prime Minister of the UK at any point between August 13, 2024, and September 18, 2024, inclusive, this question is **Annulled**.
- The "Smooth" version of the polling data should be used, not the "Kalman" version, unless it is no longer available.
- The Politico Poll of Polls is an aggregate of recent polls from major, reputable polling organizations in the UK. If the Politico Poll of Polls data for September 18 is not available before October 4, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-08-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-27T18:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27239
|
Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?
|
Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a "national renewal" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.
Starmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if the numerical value of Keir Starmer's approval rating (percentage of respondents who approve of his performance as Prime Minister) is less than 40 on September 18, 2024, as reported by the [Politico Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval) when first accessed by Metaculus.
Fine Print: - If Keir Starmer is not the Prime Minister of the UK at any point between August 13, 2024, and September 18, 2024, inclusive, this question is **Annulled**.
- The "Smooth" version of the polling data should be used, not the "Kalman" version, unless it is no longer available.
- The Politico Poll of Polls is an aggregate of recent polls from major, reputable polling organizations in the UK. If the Politico Poll of Polls data for September 18 is not available before October 4, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-08-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-27T18:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27238
|
Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?
|
The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:
- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can attract foreign investment, boosting the USD's value relative to the EUR.
- Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation impact currency values. Strong economic performance in the U.S. can lead to a stronger USD.
- Political Stability: Political events, such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and currency values.
- Market Sentiment: Traders' perceptions and speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can cause short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.
- Trade Balances: A country's trade balance (exports vs. imports) influences currency demand. A trade surplus in the U.S. can strengthen the USD.
- As of recent years, global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery efforts, and geopolitical tensions have caused significant volatility in currency markets.
As of August 13, 2024, 1 USD ≈ [0.9128 EUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Dollar (USD) to Euro EUR rate reaches 0.935 or higher at the close of any trading day after August 13, 2024 and before October 1, 2024, according to closing prices posted at [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).
Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: Specifically, we will be using the "Close" price for each day, posted under Yahoo Finance's history for *USD/EUR (USDEUR=X)*.
If Yahoo Finance shuts down or stops tracking this indicator, Metaculus admins will resolve the question based on other reliable sources that measure this key rate, at their discretion.
This question will only resolve based on closing prices, not intraday prices.
|
2024-08-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27223
|
Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?
|
On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png" />
[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk:
<img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no" />
Capturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.
See also:
- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates
- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War [reports in its interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.
To determine whether a Ukrainian capture of Rylsk has happened:
1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).
2. Scroll down to the interactive map.
3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.
4. Paste this address into the search box: Ulitsa Karla Libknekhta, 21, Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, Russia, 307370
This question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to "Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance." Please note two things:
1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW.
2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply.
If the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27222
|
On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?
|
On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced "[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024.
In the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question:
* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.
* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.
* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27221
|
On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?
|
On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced "[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024.
In the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question:
* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.
* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.
* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27220
|
On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?
|
On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced "[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024.
In the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question:
* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.
* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.
* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27219
|
On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?
|
On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced "[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024.
In the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question:
* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.
* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.
* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:04:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27209
|
Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?
|
On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week:
<img src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png" />
[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk:
<img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no" />
Capturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.
See also:
- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates
- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War [reports in its interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.
To determine whether a Ukrainian capture of Rylsk has happened:
1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).
2. Scroll down to the interactive map.
3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.
4. Paste this address into the search box: Ulitsa Karla Libknekhta, 21, Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, Russia, 307370
This question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to "Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance." Please note two things:
1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW.
2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply.
If the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T03:59:00Z
|
2024-10-01T15:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27203
|
Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx):
>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.
The first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).
In July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for mpox (also known as monkeypox), in a declaration made after August 12, 2024 and before October 1, 2024.
Either a new determination that a public health emergency exists as a consequence of mpox or a renewal of a previous one would count.
The resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page.
If there is no such HHS declaration of a PHE for mpox within the timeframe listed above, then this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T16:00:00Z
|
2024-09-30T20:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27200
|
Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?
|
According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):
>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.
>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.
>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.
The [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Clade I mpox (also referred to by CDC as monkeypox virus or MPXV) in a resident of the United States on or before August 23, 2024. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website.
The question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Clade I mpox in U.S. residents before 11:59 PM EDT on August 23, 2024.
Fine Print: - Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count.
- Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered.
- Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation.
- For this question, a U.S. resident is defined as any member of the U.S. resident population per the [CDC's definition](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/sources-definitions/population.htm).
- Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: "Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II)."
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-26T20:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27198
|
Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?
|
In what would be the first time since 1990, China faces the prospect of a net annual outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (otherwise known as inbound foreign direct investment) this year; this comes as FDI for the second quarter of 2024 [dropped by $15 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) exceeding the only other negative quarter in recent times of $12 billion set in Q3 2023.
[Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) summarises the causes of the China's foreign investment woes:
>Foreign investment into China has slumped in recent years after hitting a record $344 billion in 2021. The slowdown in the economy and rising geopolitical tensions has led some companies to reduce their exposure, and the rapid shift to electric vehicles in China also caught foreign car firms off guard, prompting some to withdraw or scale back their investments.
FDI in China is in stark contrast to China's outbound investment, as per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas):
>Chinese outbound investment also hit a record, with firms sending $71 billion overseas in the second quarter, up more than 80% from the $39 billion in the same period last year.
*Will China experience a second quarter of negative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024?*
__________
Historical FDI data can be found on [TradingEconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve "Yes" if China experiences a second quarter of negative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024 as reported by the [Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China](https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/wap/index.html). If this does not happen, then this question will resolve "No".
Fine Print: - Data from the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China quoted by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) will be sufficient for resolution.
- If China ceases to release data on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-08-14T11:00:00Z
|
2024-12-01T00:00:00Z
|
2024-11-09T05:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27191
|
Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?
|
On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days.
After 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if Ukraine no longer holds any territory in the Kursk Oblast according to either [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en) or the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/publications) at any point before December 1, 2024. This question will resolve negatively otherwise.
Fine Print: If Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast at any point but captures more territory afterwards, this question will still resolve positively.
If either DeepStateMap or the Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast, the question will resolve positively, even if they do not agree.
|
2024-08-18T11:00:00Z
|
2024-12-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-12-01T05:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27161
|
Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?
|
After their 8-win 2023 season, the Denver Broncos cut Russell Wilson and drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th draft pick. They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if Bo Nix enters the field as the Denver Broncos are about to start their first offensive drive of their game against the New York Jets.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-29T17:47:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27160
|
Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?
|
Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas.
China and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts.
For further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if before September 30, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or credible reports:
The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).
The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.
The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.
The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.
If there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as No.
Fine Print: “Diplomat" is defined using the LSData definition of [diplomatic agent](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent): "...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. Their job is to communicate with the government of the country they are in and promote their own country's interests."
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T18:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27159
|
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?
|
On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.
[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:
>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.
CDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as "None" and a low current public health risk.
In its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:
>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, after April 11, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.
Fine Print: * Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.
* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.
* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T20:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27158
|
Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?
|
In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions:
| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |
|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|
| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |
| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |
| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |
| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |
| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |
On paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline.
However, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as "[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html)," there was a widespread "freak out" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that "One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/).
Initial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.
See Also
Pew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />
US News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />
Wikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />
The Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-23T11:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27157
|
Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?
|
On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).
With respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions
by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as "punishment" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.
Since the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called "Taiwan independence separatists."
In late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included "[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.
Fine Print: * Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).
* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.
* "Armed conflict" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27141
|
Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?
|
The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.
In April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):
>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.
On April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):
>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.
>
>"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high," Rybar said.
>
>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, after May 2, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.
Fine Print: * The bridge must be physically struck by the weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles, attacks that are intercepted or otherwise do not strike the bridge will not count.
* There is no requirement on how much damage the bridge must receive, the only requirement is that the strike must pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge. For example, a car bomb detonated on the bridge would count, while the bridge being struck with bullets of a caliber that would cause only superficial harm, or the collision of a small vessel that does not pose a threat to the integrity of the bridge do not count.
* There is no requirement on who the attack is attributed to. Attacks attributed to or blamed on any country or group would count, including terrorism.
* A strike on either the rail bridge or the road bridge counts.
* A strike on the immediate bridge approaches will also count.
* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether potentially qualifying events satisfy these criteria, and may **annul** the question if it is unclear from available reporting whether the criteria have been satisfied.
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T16:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27140
|
Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)
be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?
|
According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for September 20, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on September 20, 2023.
Fine Print: The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question, later updates or revisions will be immaterial.
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-23T20:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27138
|
On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?
|
Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.
On May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, on September 17, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).
Fine Print: * If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T19:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27137
|
Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?
|
Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.
After the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.
The Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.
[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),
> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.
> ...
> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves as Yes if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before October 1, 2024.
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27136
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?
|
[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
As of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.
Republican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.
Attorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate.
Given Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if before September 24, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.
Fine Print: An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.
However, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.
Any revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.
|
2024-08-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-23T19:56:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27135
|
Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?
|
Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, "Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering." Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Google (or Alphabet) has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Google or Alphabet appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Google or Alphabet are not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: As the parent company of Google, Alphabet is an acceptable synonym for Google. Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Google or Alphabet. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
According to Tech Crunch, "Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly." Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-08-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T23:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27134
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?
|
The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on September 30, 2024 is higher than that on August 30, 2024.
Fine Print: The "close" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.
|
2024-08-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27133
|
Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?
|
While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates.
Biden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) "I had a bad night." On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.
The second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, "I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of formal, live debates held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024 is greater than one. If the number is zero or 1, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: - The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.
- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.
- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.
- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.
- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.
- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.
|
2024-08-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27132
|
Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?
|
On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.”
Subsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293):
>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.
In April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.
In addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before October 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine Print: The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:
1. Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.
3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.
|
2024-08-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:47:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27112
|
Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?
|
Anthropic announced a safety bug bounty program here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-safety-bug-bounty
Sam Bowman said he would bet at 25% odds that no universal jailbreak would be found, see: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369
"And the intent is for universal jailbreaks: To resolve the bet to 'no', someone would have to write a simple recipe (or, ideally, a fully-automated UI) that gets an answer to any harmful query, where that answer reflects roughly the level of capability that you'd expect from a near-frontier LLM.
The resolution process is probably too messy for something like Metaculus, but I'll also offer this bet to other Anthropic safety people, for whom it'll be crisper!"
Resolution Criteria: *This page belongs to a Community curated by Zvi Mowshowitz. Read the Note below to learn more about how Community pages differ from standard Metaculus pages.*
This question will resolve to Anthropic / Sam Bowman's verdict on the result, if available by 11/30. If not available by 11/30 and there are no prospects of getting a straight answer, and the answer isn't otherwise known, this will resolve N/A (note this is different from Manifold, where I will use best judgment then, since N/A is discouraged there).
To qualify, a jailbreak must fit Bowman's criteria: A simple recipe (or fully automated UI) that can get the AI in question to answer any harmful query to the best of its underlying ability.
*Note: This page belongs to a Metaculus experiment in hosting Communities managed by volunteer curators. Think "subreddits, but for forecasting." They can have more flexible questions and resolution criteria and can focus on a broader range of topics than questions in the main feed. Community questions do not appear in the main Metaculus feed by default, but may be added. Forecasts on Community pages do not contribute to standings on the main leaderboards.*
*Because Community pages are managed by volunteer curators, questions about resolution criteria or definitions may not be answered in a timely manner—or may not be answered at all. Further, while the Metaculus Community Guidelines apply on these pages, Communities are meant to operate largely autonomously, and so comments should not be directed to @admins.*
*Have feedback or ideas on the Community experiment more generally? Let us know at support@metaculus.com.*
|
2024-08-10T17:29:00Z
|
2024-11-10T17:00:00Z
|
2025-02-03T00:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27105
|
Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?
|
According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):
>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.
>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.
>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.
The [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Clade I mpox (also referred to by CDC as monkeypox virus or MPXV) in a resident of the United States on or before August 23, 2024. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website.
The question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Clade I mpox in U.S. residents before 11:59 PM EDT on August 23, 2024.
Fine Print: - Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count.
- Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered.
- Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation.
- For this question, a U.S. resident is defined as any member of the U.S. resident population per the [CDC's definition](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/sources-definitions/population.htm).
- Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: "Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II)."
|
2024-08-10T12:00:00Z
|
2024-08-24T03:59:00Z
|
2024-08-25T00:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27089
|
Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):
>Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes the iPhone 16 Pro models could adopt the net-generation WiFi 7 technology, which is expected to provide speeds of "at least 30" gigabits per second, and could hit up to 40Gb/s.
>Wi-Fi 7 is also able to use 320MHz channels and supports 4K quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) technology, ultimately providing up to 2.4x faster speeds than Wi-Fi 6 with the same number of antennas. Wi-Fi 7 will ultimately provide faster maximum transfer speeds, lower latency, and more reliably connectivity.
>While Wi-Fi 7 could be limited to the iPhone 16 Pro models, the standard iPhone 16 models could get an upgrade to Wi-Fi 6E, which supports the 6GHz Wi-Fi band. Right now, Wi-Fi 6E is limited to the iPhone 15 Pro models.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces any new iPhone model that supports Wi-Fi 7 (]IEEE 802.11be) technology, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_802.11be)) as "a wireless networking standard in the IEEE 802.11 set of protocols, which is designated Wi-Fi 7 by Wi-Fi Alliance." If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If Apple uses a different name than "Wi-Fi 7" or "WiFi 7" but it has specifications of the IEEE 802.11be standard, it will count.
The iPhone must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16. Previous models such as the iPhone 15 do not count.
The new iPhones with Wi-Fi 7 can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. They do not have to be available for purchase.
Leaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-14T02:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27088
|
Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?
|
On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tim Walz ceases to be the Democratic Party's official candidate for Vice President in the 2024 cycle, for any reason, before October 1, 2024. If this does not happen, this question closes as No.
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27087
|
Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?
|
Despite its financial health, as a large organizations with its hands in many pies, Microsoft frequently engages in layoffs, most recently in June 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Microsoft has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Microsoft appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Microsoft is not listed, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
According to Tech Crunch, ""Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly."" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. "
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Microsoft. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T11:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27086
|
Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?
|
As of July 16, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $252.3B. Jeff Bezos is ranked second, with $209.7 B. Bernard Arnault & family is ranked third, with $177.4 B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Elon Musk is in first place on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If there is a tie, this resolves as **No**. If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T22:24:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27085
|
Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?
|
In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.
The ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
See Also
Base rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu.
Fine Print: A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.
Secret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27039
|
Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?
|
According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):
>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.
>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.
Hasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest.
According to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament:
>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).
>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Sheikh Hasina has been granted asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024. Sources for verification can include:
- Official statements from the UK Home Office or government.
- Direct statements from Sheikh Hasina or her legal representatives.
- Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
If this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
We are defining "asylum" as Hasina entering the UK under the auspices of [Section 31](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1999/33/section/31) of the UK's Immigration and Asylum Act of 1999, seeking asylum as a refugee. It does not include any [other form of entry](https://www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration) into the UK such as temporary diplomatic protections, entering the country under a Standard Visa, family visa, etc. If she enters and remains in the UK through October 1, 2024 using some other method rather than formal asylum, this question resolves as No.
Please note that this question will not resolve as No until October 1, 2024. If an asylum request is denied, a successful appeal can still cause this question to resolve as Yes.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27029
|
Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?
|
Previous vice presidential debates have been:
- October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence
- October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine
- October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan
- October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin
- October 5, 2004 between Dick Cheney and John Edwards
- October 5, 2000 between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman.
Vice presidential debates were not held before 1984, when the first ever VP debate, between George H.W. Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, was held on October 11.
The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.
When she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.
As of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before November 5, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.
If no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**.
Fine Print: - A qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a vice presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for vice president in the 2024 US election.
- Both the Democratic and Republican vice presidential nominees must participate in the debate, responding to each other and moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both major party nominees are present.
- The debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously.
Pre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.
- The debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both major party vice presidential nominees participating live.
- Alternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.
- If either the Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominee is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason or the presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as "No".
- The debate must begin before November 5, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.
|
2024-08-07T11:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T02:00:00Z
|
2024-10-02T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27024
|
Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?
|
According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):
>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.
>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.
Hasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest.
According to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament:
>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).
>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Sheikh Hasina has been granted asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024. Sources for verification can include:
- Official statements from the UK Home Office or government.
- Direct statements from Sheikh Hasina or her legal representatives.
- Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
If this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
We are defining "asylum" as Hasina entering the UK under the auspices of [Section 31](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1999/33/section/31) of the UK's Immigration and Asylum Act of 1999, seeking asylum as a refugee. It does not include any [other form of entry](https://www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration) into the UK such as temporary diplomatic protections, entering the country under a Standard Visa, family visa, etc. If she enters and remains in the UK through October 1, 2024 using some other method rather than formal asylum, this question resolves as No.
Please note that this question will not resolve as No until October 1, 2024. If an asylum request is denied, a successful appeal can still cause this question to resolve as Yes.
|
2024-08-06T22:15:00Z
|
2024-09-15T06:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27022
|
Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?
|
On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed "indefinitely" until at least July 2nd.
On June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.
Will they be Earthside on September 15?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are on Earth's surface as of 12 noon on September 15, 2024 Eastern time, based on credible sources such as reporting from NASA, SpaceX, Boeing, or Roscosmos.
Fine Print: This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.
The question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. Both astronauts do not need to return to Earth at the same time.
"Earth's surface" is to be understood in opposition to space (above the Kármán line), orbit (aboard the ISS), or in transit aboard a surface-bound ship.
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T00:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27021
|
Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
|
The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics.
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-11T16:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27020
|
Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?
|
In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://www.anthropic.com/news If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Anthropic's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://www.anthropic.com/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on October 1, 2024, this question resolves as No.
Anthropic's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T17:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27019
|
Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?
|
On August 2, 2024, Donald Trump posted on social media that he was terminating his agreement to appear at a September 10, 2024 debate hosted by ABC News, which had previously been agreed to between his campaign and Joe Biden. He claimed instead that he was going to debate Kamala Harris on September 4, 2024, in a debate hosted by Fox News. In response, Harris campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said that there had been no such agreement to move the debate and that Harris would attend the September 10th debate whether Trump was in attendance or not.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if on September 4, 2024, there is a one formal, live debate held between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Fine Print: A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.
A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.
A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.
Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.
A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-05T11:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27018
|
Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?
|
Closed-source, domain-specific AI in 2024 came one point off gold on the 2024 [IMO](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/). However, this used a bespoke, proof-only neural network. Whereas, in this question, we consider ChatGPT-like systems: publicly-available, domain-general language models. **This question is intended to reflect the widespread availability of mathematical expertise in a form usable by a lay-person.**
"The International Math Olympiad is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extraordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions... In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42." Background information from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if it is publicly announced that a general large language model (LLM) system available to the public scores gold in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) before October 1, 2024.
**Criteria distinguishing this question from the [IMO grand challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/)**:
*Model Generality*: The model must be domain-general i.e. capable of answering standard queries one might have posed to ChatGPT in 2023 (e.g. as listed [here](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmsys/chatbot_arena_conversations)). Multi-modal systems are considered valid LLMs for this challenge.
*Model Availability*: A large language model (LLM) is publicly available, meaning it is either:
- Queryable by the general public via web browser, or
- Accessible via an Application Programming Interface ([API](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API)).
The model need not be [open-weights](https://www.ftc.gov/policy/advocacy-research/tech-at-ftc/2024/07/open-weights-foundation-models).
**Additional criteria**:
*Test Set*: The model achieves the gold medal threshold in an IMO. The gold medal threshold is a point cutoff determined for that year's olympiad usually including around the top 50 competitors, and is shown on the official IMO [page](https://www.imo-official.org/year_individual_r.aspx?year=2024). Model success must be announced by credible sources, which may include AI lab blog posts, arXiv preprints, or published papers.
*Input/Output Format*: Problems must be presented to the model as they would be to IMO participants, using:
1. Natural language
2. Images (if applicable to the problem)
3. The model may submit proofs in either a formal language or as human competitors would.
*Model Constraints for IMO*:
1. The model must not use internet search during problem-solving
2. The model may use arbitrary scaffolding, search within a fixed knowledge base, and program use.
Fine Print: *Time Limit*: The model must finalize its answers to all 6 IMO problems within a total of 9 hours, submitting one answer for each question. This can be either:
- 9 hours of wall-clock time if only serial queries to the model are made, or
- 9 hours of effective serial run-time if parallel processing is used
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-27017
|
Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?
|
As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.
Joining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.
Potential candidates for UN membership include:
1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.
2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.
3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.
4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.
5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.
Additionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.
Factors to consider when forecasting:
- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)
- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts
- Ongoing independence movements
- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states
- The veto power of permanent Security Council members
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states exceeds 193 at any point between the question's opening date and 23:59:59 UTC on September 30, 2024 (inclusive). It will resolve negatively if the number of member states remains at or below 193 throughout this period.
Resolution will be based on the official membership count as reported on the United Nations website ([Member States](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states)), in official UN press releases, or from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the UN's official numbers.
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question, "member states" refers to full member states of the United Nations, not observer states or any other category of affiliation.
If a new member state is admitted that would bring the number above 193 but its membership does not take effect until after the resolution date, the question will still resolve negatively.
If the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26986
|
Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?
|
The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).
Following Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of "[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft.
According to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):
>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration.
[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:
>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term "ADIZ violation" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the "median line extension" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.
To control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 60 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).
Fine Print: * Specifically, the column "Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ" will be used on the "Daily Totals" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.
* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T11:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26985
|
Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?
|
The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).
Following Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of "[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft.
According to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):
>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration.
[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:
>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term "ADIZ violation" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the "median line extension" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.
To control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 50 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).
Fine Print: * Specifically, the column "Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ" will be used on the "Daily Totals" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.
* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T11:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26984
|
Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?
|
The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).
Following Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of "[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft.
According to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):
>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration.
[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:
>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term "ADIZ violation" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the "median line extension" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.
To control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 40 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).
Fine Print: * Specifically, the column "Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ" will be used on the "Daily Totals" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.
* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T11:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26983
|
Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?
|
The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).
Following Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of "[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft.
According to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):
>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration.
[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:
>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term "ADIZ violation" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the "median line extension" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.
To control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 30 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).
Fine Print: * Specifically, the column "Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ" will be used on the "Daily Totals" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.
* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T11:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26982
|
Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?
|
The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).
Following Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of "[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft.
According to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):
>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration.
[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:
>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term "ADIZ violation" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the "median line extension" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.
To control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 20 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).
Fine Print: * Specifically, the column "Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ" will be used on the "Daily Totals" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.
* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T11:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26981
|
Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?
|
The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).
Following Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of "[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft.
According to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):
>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration.
[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:
>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term "ADIZ violation" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the "median line extension" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.
To control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 10 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).
Fine Print: * Specifically, the column "Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ" will be used on the "Daily Totals" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.
* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-16T15:54:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26980
|
Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?
|
> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours.
For North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.
| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |
|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|
| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |
| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |
| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |
| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |
Our World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Forecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed "North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 120 through the date of October 7, 2024.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-06T13:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26979
|
Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?
|
> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours.
For North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.
| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |
|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|
| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |
| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |
| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |
| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |
Our World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Forecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed "North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 100 through the date of October 7, 2024.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-05T22:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26978
|
Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?
|
> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours.
For North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.
| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |
|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|
| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |
| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |
| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |
| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |
Our World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Forecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed "North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 80 through the date of October 7, 2024.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26977
|
Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?
|
> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours.
For North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.
| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |
|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|
| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |
| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |
| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |
| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |
Our World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.
<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Forecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed "North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 60 through the date of October 7, 2024.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-28T01:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26976
|
Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
|
California's SB 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/exclusive-anthropic-weighs-in-on-california-ai-bill) to the bill, saying in a [letter](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25003075-sia-sb-1047-anthropic) to the California Assembly that in its view, regulatory compliance could be too burdensome to the point of impeding innovation, and presenting a list of proposed changes.
SB 1047 must pass the [state general assembly](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) and be signed by the Governor to be enacted.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if [SB 1047](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) is passed by the California state legislature and signed by the Governor into law before October 1, 2024.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T13:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26975
|
Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?
|
The upper limit of the target range for the Fed Funds Rate currently sits at 5.50%, a 23-year high.
At its July 2024 meeting, the Fed [declined to cut rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm), stating:
> In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
Since then, data indicating a [slowing jobs market](https://www.ft.com/content/d48e4925-d2fc-4ba1-a0ae-df2c7d0b7b45) and [fears of a recession](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/the-fed-is-trying-to-fight-a-ghost-as-recession-fears-mount.html) have led to sell-offs in global equities markets, with some observers calling for the Fed to make an [emergency rate cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html) before its scheduled September 2024 meeting.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the US Federal Reserve reduces the upper limit of the [federal funds rate target range](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU) before September 17, 2024. The reduction must occur after August 5, 2024 and must take effect before September 17, 2024.
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T12:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26962
|
Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
|
California's SB 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/exclusive-anthropic-weighs-in-on-california-ai-bill) to the bill, saying in a [letter](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25003075-sia-sb-1047-anthropic) to the California Assembly that in its view the regulatory compliance could be too burdensome to the point of impeding innovation, and presenting a list of proposed changes.
SB 1047 must pass the [state general assembly](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) and be signed by the Governor to be enacted.
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safe_and_Secure_Innovation_for_Frontier_Artificial_Intelligence_Models_Act):
>The Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act, or SB 1047, is a 2024 California bill intended to "mitigate the risk of catastrophic harms from AI models so advanced that they are not yet known to exist". Specifically, the bill would apply to models which cost more than $100 million to train and were trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations. The bill creates protections for whistleblowers, requires developers to perform risk assessment on their models prior to release, and establishes a Division of Frontier Models in the Government Operations Agency. If passed, the bill will also establish CalCompute, a public cloud computing cluster in the Department of Technology for startups, researchers and community groups.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if [SB 1047](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) is enacted before October 1, 2024. If this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T18:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T14:19:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26960
|
Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?
|
The upper limit of the target range for the Fed Funds Rate currently sits at 5.50%, a 23-year high.
At its July 2024 meeting, the Fed [declined to cut rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm), stating:
> In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
Since then, data indicating a [slowing jobs market](https://www.ft.com/content/d48e4925-d2fc-4ba1-a0ae-df2c7d0b7b45) and [fears of a recession](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/the-fed-is-trying-to-fight-a-ghost-as-recession-fears-mount.html) have led to sell-offs in global equities markets, with some observers calling for the Fed to make an [emergency rate cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html) before its scheduled September 2024 meeting.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the US Federal Reserve reduces the upper limit of the [federal funds rate target range](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU) before September 17, 2024. The reduction must occur after August 5, 2024 and must take effect before September 17, 2024.
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T18:00:00Z
|
2024-09-20T17:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26959
|
Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?
|
The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.
When she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.
As of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate. Additionally, the Harris campaign was still [working on finalizing](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/us/trump-harris-election-news) its VP pick.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.
If no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**.
Fine Print: - A qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a vice presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for vice president in the 2024 US election.
- Both the Democratic and Republican vice presidential nominees must participate in the debate, responding to each other and moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both major party nominees are present.
- The debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously.
Pre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.
- The debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both major party vice presidential nominees participating live.
- Alternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.
- If either the Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominee is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason or the presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as "No".
- The debate must begin before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26958
|
Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?
|
Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia.
Some of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Despite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.
In July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.
The state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form.
If the message returned is: "доступ ограничивается к странице" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.
If the message returned is: "По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is *not* included in the blocklist and this question resolves as **No**.
This question also resolves as **Yes** if YouTube is blocked in Russia according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: Note that the shortened version, `youtu.be` is already included in the blocklist, and this site does NOT trigger the resolution.
Metaculus admins may also use another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if they have reasons to believe that the Roskomnadzor site's data are inaccurate.
Changes in the phrasing used by Roskomnadzor's blocklist site will not affect resolution of this question, since the question resolves based on whether access to YouTube is limited or restricted according to Roskomnadzor, regardless of the exact wording.
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26957
|
Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?
|
On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.”
Subsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293):
>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.
In April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.
In addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before September 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine Print: The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:
1. Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.
3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-01T11:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26942
|
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?
|
As of August 2024, bond markets are signaling increasing concerns about a potential US recession, driven by [weaker-than-expected economic data](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), particularly a disappointing July jobs report. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up in July, raising fears that the labor market, which had been a pillar of economic strength, may be starting to crack under the pressure of high interest rates.
Historically, the unemployment rate has been a key indicator of the health of the US economy and labor market. During recessions, the unemployment rate typically rises significantly as businesses lay off workers and hiring slows. For example, during the brief but severe recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the unemployment rate spiked to 14.8% in April 2020 before gradually declining as the economy recovered.
As of July 2024, the US unemployment rate stands at [4.3%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).
This question asks whether the unemployment rate will exceed 5% before 2025, a threshold that would signal a significant deterioration in labor market conditions and likely coincide with a broader economic downturn.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as "Yes" if the US unemployment rate, as reported by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), is greater than 5% for any month from August 2024 to December 2024 inclusive.
The question will resolve as "No" if the unemployment rate remains at or below 5% for every month during this period.
Fine Print: The relevant unemployment rate is the U-3 rate, which is the official unemployment rate reported by the BLS and measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
The BLS releases unemployment data for each month on the first Friday of the following month. The question will resolve based on the first reported numbers and will not be affected by any subsequent revisions.
If the BLS changes its methodology for calculating the unemployment rate during the period in question, the question will resolve based on the new methodology, as long as the BLS provides sufficient data to determine whether the 5% threshold has been breached.
|
2024-08-06T13:23:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2025-01-16T23:43:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26938
|
Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?
|
The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.
When she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.
As of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate. Additionally, the Harris campaign was still [working on finalizing](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/us/trump-harris-election-news) its VP pick.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.
If no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**.
Fine Print: - A qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a vice presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for vice president in the 2024 US election.
- Both the Democratic and Republican vice presidential nominees must participate in the debate, responding to each other and moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both major party nominees are present.
- The debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously.
Pre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.
- The debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both major party vice presidential nominees participating live.
- Alternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.
- If either the Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominee is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason or the presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as "No".
- The debate must begin before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T01:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T14:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26918
|
Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?
|
Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).
Hezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
We previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2023 and before Oct 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.
Fine Print: * Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.
* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.
* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.
* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.
* The median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the estimates differ substantially.
|
2024-08-05T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-23T20:08:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26916
|
Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?
|
As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presidency after incumbent President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the race, and former President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump?useskin=vector), who has been adopted as the Republican Party's nominee for the third consecutive presidential election.
As of July 30 2024, according to polling averages maintained by 538, Trump and Harris have strikingly similar net favorability ratings: [-8.7 in the case of Donald Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/), and [-8.5 in the case of Kamala Harris.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/)
Biden, who dropped out of the race amid [widespread concern that he was not cognitively fit](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/72-of-voters-say-biden-not-mentally-fit-to-serve-as-president-poll/3262503) to serve as president, has [a net favourability rating of -17.6](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if Kamala Harris's net favorability is higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024. For example, this question would resolve Yes if her net favorability is 0 on October 1, 2024.
|
2024-08-05T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:47:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26915
|
Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?
|
As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presidency after incumbent President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the race, and former President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump?useskin=vector), who has been adopted as the Republican Party's nominee for the third consecutive presidential election.
As of July 30 2024, according to polling averages maintained by 538, Trump and Harris have strikingly similar net favorability ratings: [-8.7 in the case of Donald Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/), and [-8.5 in the case of Kamala Harris.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/)
Biden, who dropped out of the race amid [widespread concern that he was not cognitively fit](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/72-of-voters-say-biden-not-mentally-fit-to-serve-as-president-poll/3262503) to serve as president, has [a net favourability rating of -17.6](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if Kamala Harris's net favorability is higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024. For example, this question would resolve Yes if her net favorability is 0 on September 1, 2024.
|
2024-08-05T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-01T18:03:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26914
|
Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?
|
As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presidency after incumbent President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the race, and former President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump?useskin=vector), who has been adopted as the Republican Party's nominee for the third consecutive presidential election.
As of July 30 2024, according to polling averages maintained by 538, Trump and Harris have strikingly similar net favorability ratings: [-8.7 in the case of Donald Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/), and [-8.5 in the case of Kamala Harris.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/)
Biden, who dropped out of the race amid [widespread concern that he was not cognitively fit](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/72-of-voters-say-biden-not-mentally-fit-to-serve-as-president-poll/3262503) to serve as president, has [a net favourability rating of -17.6](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if Donald Trump's net favorability is higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024. For example, this question would resolve Yes if his net favorability is 0 on October 1, 2024.
|
2024-08-05T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26913
|
Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?
|
As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presidency after incumbent President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the race, and former President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump?useskin=vector), who has been adopted as the Republican Party's nominee for the third consecutive presidential election.
As of July 30 2024, according to polling averages maintained by 538, Trump and Harris have strikingly similar net favorability ratings: [-8.7 in the case of Donald Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/), and [-8.5 in the case of Kamala Harris.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/)
Biden, who dropped out of the race amid [widespread concern that he was not cognitively fit](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/72-of-voters-say-biden-not-mentally-fit-to-serve-as-president-poll/3262503) to serve as president, has [a net favourability rating of -17.6](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if Donald Trump's net favorability is higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024. For example, this question would resolve Yes if his net favorability is 0 on September 1, 2024.
|
2024-08-05T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-06T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-01T18:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26898
|
Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?
|
On July 28, Venezuela held Presidential elections, but full results have not yet been published by the [National Electoral Council (CNE)](https://www.cne.gob.ve/) as of August 2. Hours after polling stations closed, the head of the CNE proclaimed the incumbent, Nicolás Maduro, the winner for a third term.
The opposition and the international community have pointed out irregularities. The CNE [asserted](https://mincyt.gob.ve/nicolas-maduro-gana-las-elecciones-presidenciales/), with 20% of ballots left to count, that Maduro's 7-point lead over the united opposition candidate Edmundo González was "irreversible", which is contradictory – by the CNE's own assertion, there were enough votes left to be counted that González could still take the lead.
Furthermore, the data published by the CNE reports no more than three numbers: the votes for Maduro (51.2% of the total), the ones for González (44.2%), and an aggregated figure for "others" (4.6%). [Analyses of the data](https://elpais.com/america/2024-08-02/quien-gano-en-venezuela-los-datos-de-la-oposicion-son-mas-verificables-que-los-oficiales.html) show that the numbers correspond *exactly* to those percentages, a result consistent with the percentages being made up and the corresponding vote counts being calculated back from them.
Meanwhile, civil society in the country has been performing an [independent, bottom-up verification of the results](https://resultadosconvzla.com/); reports generated immediately after the election by the voting machines in precincts around the country are digitized and posted online. Aggregation of these vote counts show a 37-point victory for González over Maduro.
How will the Chavista president respond? Will he publish a full, disaggregated count of the results?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that, before Monday, August 12, 2024 at 12:01 AM Venezuelan Standard Time (VET), any entity of the Venezuelan government has published results of the July 28, 2024 election purporting to represent 100% of the votes cast, disaggregated to the level of parish (*parroquia*, a subdivision of municipalities).
Fine Print: Any set of numbers published is enough to resolve as Yes, regardless of consistency with previously-reported figures, the civil society's audit or even internal consistency (the numbers don't need to add up).
The numbers need to claim to be complete; partial counts will not be enough to resolve as Yes.
|
2024-08-04T11:00:00Z
|
2024-08-12T04:00:00Z
|
2024-08-12T07:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26896
|
Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?
|
*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Israel Lose International Support for Its Campaign in Gaza?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-Lose-International-Support-for-its-Campaign-Against-Hamas)*
---
Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has seen [growing international recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign\_relations\_of\_Israel), though is still not universally recognized due to the longstanding [conflict between Israel and a number of the Arab countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Israeli\_conflict). In particular, the [United States has been a close ally of Israel](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23916266/us-israel-support-ally-gaza-war-aid), with the US having provided [at least $158 billion](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf) in bilateral assistance and missile defense funding since Israel was established.
In the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israel — which saw [nearly 1,200 people killed](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas\#chapter-title-0-8) and [over 250 taken hostage](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011) — many friendly countries [expressed support for Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\_reactions\_to\_the\_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas\_war). However, Israel’s responding military campaign against Hamas in Gaza led a [number of countries to sever relations](https://www.axios.com/2023/11/16/israel-gaza-war-countries-against-cease-fire-diplomats) due to the humanitarian situation, which has seen nearly [40,000 Palestinians killed](https://www.ochaopt.org/) as of August 2024 according to the Gaza Ministry of Health (though this number is disputed by Israel), and close to two million Gazans displaced. The US, Germany, Italy, the UK, and Canada have supplied Israel with weapons since the beginning of the war, though Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands [halted arms sales to Israel in early 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/who-are-israels-main-weapons-suppliers-who-has-halted-exports-2024-05-09/).
But as the war approaches one year of duration and Israel has [expanded into other regions in Gaza](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4660135-israel-moves-deeper-into-rafah/), the international mood may be shifting against Israel. In March of 2024, the US abstained on a [UN Security Council Resolution demanding a ceasefire](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/israel-gaza-us-abstention-on-un-cease-fire-vote-triggers-netanyahu-rage.html), allowing it to pass against the wishes of Israel. And in May 2024 the International Criminal Court (ICC) [sought arrest warrants](https://www.newsweek.com/israel-losing-diplomatic-war-palestine-united-nations-europe-1904064) for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Additionally, a number of countries have now granted diplomatic recognition to Palestine in response to the conflict. These actions have [caused some to argue](https://time.com/6963032/israel-netanyahu-allies-global-standing/) that the world is turning against Israel over its operation in Gaza.
The countries of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, and Australia make up a subset of the [G20](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20), and are among the ten member states of the G20 that [do not recognize Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\_recognition\_of\_the\_State\_of\_Palestine\#:\~:text=while%20ten%20countries%20(Australia%2C%20Canada%2C%20France%2C%20Germany%2C%20Italy%2C%20Japan%2C%20Mexico%2C%20South%20Korea%2C%20the%20United%20Kingdom%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States)%20have%20not).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, at least two of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia takes any of the following actions relating to their relations with Israel, citing Israel's military actions in Gaza as a contributing factor:
* Recalls its ambassador from Israel, publicly announcing that the recall is in protest of Israel's actions in Gaza
* Downgrades its diplomatic relations with Israel, which is defined as reducing its chief of mission in the country to below the level of ambassador, referred to as a chargé d'affaires.
* Severs diplomatic relations with Israel, which is defined as withdrawing its diplomatic staff from the country.
* Formally announces that it recognizes the state of Palestine.
Additionally if the United States takes any one of the following actions before January 1, 2025, citing Israel's military actions in Gaza as a contributing factor, that will count for the United States as well (so if the United States takes one action listed below, and a different country takes one of the actions above, the question will resolve as **Yes**):
* Votes in favor (not simply abstaining) of a UN Security Council or UN General Assembly resolution that makes a demand or request of Israel relating to the Israeli campaign in Gaza (and any related humanitarian situations).
* Moves the US embassy in Israel from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv (or another location in Israel).
* Explicitly and unambiguously states that it has implemented an arms embargo on Israel.
* The statement must clearly say that an arms embargo is the official policy of the United States toward Israel, and not merely threaten a future arms embargo or cut off only some portion of weaponry. The embargo must cut off both weapons sales and bilateral military aid.
If the criteria above have not been met before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-08-19T16:45:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T16:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26859
|
Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?
|
On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.”
Subsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293):
>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.
In April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.
In addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before September 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine Print: The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:
1. Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.
3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.
|
2024-08-05T08:42:00Z
|
2024-09-01T03:59:42.272000Z
|
2024-09-04T19:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26844
|
Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?
|
In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44.2%. The election was marred by [irregularities](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html), with the opposition and international observers questioning the results. González, a stand-in for popular opposition leader María Corina Machado who was barred from running, has not yet conceded the election to Maduro.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before September 1, 2024, Edmundo González publicly concedes the election to Nicolás Maduro, acknowledging Maduro's victory. The concession must be reported by credible sources. If González does not concede before September 2024, the question will resolve as "No".
Fine Print: - A concession by González must be explicit and unambiguous. Statements that only imply a concession or acknowledge Maduro's de facto control without formally conceding will not count.
- If González is arrested, disappears, or is otherwise prevented from making a public statement, the question will resolve as "No" unless he manages to concede the election through other means (e.g., a statement released by his representatives or family).
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-01T11:08:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26842
|
Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?
|
In its most recent funding round, OpenAI was valued at $80 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://openai.com/news/ If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of OpenAI's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://openai.com/news/) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on October 1, 2024, this question resolves as No.
OpenAI's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-03T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T17:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26841
|
Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?
|
Spirit Airlines, a deep discount airline which has been unprofitable from an operating standpoint since the start of the 2020 pandemic, recently had a buyout from JetBlue rejected by antitrust regulators. As of Q2 2024 results it continues to face declining revenues and negative earnings and cash flows.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Spirit Airlines, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before October 1, 2024. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
Only petitions filed by Spirit Airlines, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of its business (as judged by moderators) as of July 23, 2024, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-03T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T22:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26840
|
Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?
|
Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's production numbers have been as follows: 440,808 in Q1 2023, 479,700 in Q2 2023, 430,488 in Q3 2023, 494,989 in Q4 2023, 433,371 in Q1 2024, and 410,831 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 410,831 vehicles delivered for the third quarter of 2024. If it reports production of 410,831 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports production and deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected October 2, 2024. If Tesla does not report these numbers before October 16, 2024, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-03T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T17:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26839
|
Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):
>Rumors suggest the iPhone 16 Pro models will use stacked battery technology, which can result in higher capacity and a longer lifespan. Stacked batteries are common in electric vehicles and medical devices, but are an emerging technology for smartphones.
>The stacked battery could come alongside faster 40W wired charging and 20W MagSafe charging.
>The iPhone 16 battery is expected to have an updated stainless steel casing that allows for higher energy density, ultimately bringing a density increase of up to 10 percent. That could lead to longer battery life, but this isn't a feature that is likely to come to all iPhone 16 models.
>EU law requires smartphone manufacturers create batteries that can be replaced by owners using easily accessible tools, and Apple will need to implement support by 2025. Apple is planning to adopt a new battery replacement method for at least one iPhone 16 model, encasing the battery in metal rather than foil. With a low volt of electricity, the battery will be able to removed from the chassis, which would eliminate the need for adhesive and ease repairs.
>Rumors suggest that most of the iPhone 16 models will see a small increase in battery life.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces an iPhone model that has stacked battery technology, defined in the fine print. If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: "Stacked battery technology" is [defined](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/iphone-15-battery-stacked-charge-time-b2376711.html) as a design in which battery cells fold the electrodes up into multiple layers. This offers several potential advantages including reduced heat and higher charge capacity.
The iPhone must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16. Previous models such as the iPhone 15 do not count.
The new iPhones with stacked battery technology can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. They does not have to be available for purchase.
Leaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-03T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T17:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26838
|
Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?
|
As of April 30, 2024, the median net worth on Bloomberg's BIllionaires Index [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20240430225424/https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) was $9.535B. On July 10, 2024, it was $10.0B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the median net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is above $10.2 billion when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the median net worth is $10.2 billion or less.
Fine Print: If there is an even number of people listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the median net worth is calculated by taking the simple average of the net worths of the two individuals ranked in the middle of the list. For example if there are 500 people (the number as of July 10, 2024), the median net worth is calculated by taking the simple average of the net worths of the 250th and 251st ranked individuals.
If there is an odd number of people listed on the Index, the median will simply be the net worth of the person ranked in the middle. For example, if the list contains 501 individuals, then it will be the net worth of the person ranked 251st.
If Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). .
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-03T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-16T21:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26837
|
Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?
|
According to the [Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/nation/kamala-harris-walkout-songs-katy-perry-womans-world-20240722.html):
>Katy Perry’s latest single, “Woman’s World,” flopped hard among listeners and critics when it premiered this month. Could Kamala Harris’ presidential run be the song’s saving grace?
>When it debuted, critics quickly compared the pop track to something straight from the 2016 Hillary Clinton “girl boss” era. It’s a glossy number with simplistic lyrics about how women are strong, cool, and great.
At the time of this question (July 26, 2024), the song was ranked 63rd on the Billboard Hot 100.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, the song Woman's World by
Katy Perry achieves a ranking higher than 15th place on the Billboard Hot 100, which can be accessed [here](https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/). If the song fails to achieve that ranking, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The highest position on the Billboard Hot 100 is 1 and the lowest is 100. Therefore, 14th place is higher than 15th place, as is 13th place, 12th place, and so on.
|
2024-08-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-03T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26821
|
Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?
|
In the wake of President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 election, the presidential debates are uncertain, and so are the VP debates. At the time of this question, JD Vance is the Republican nominee for VP, and the Democratic nominee is still yet to be announced.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.
Fine Print: A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.
A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.
A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.
Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.
A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26820
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?
|
[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes.
In recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:
>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.
>...
>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.
As of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)
In his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.
As of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve **Yes** if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has more than 15 million followers on Sept 30, 2024 on their primary TikTok account which will be considered to be [@teamkennedy2024](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024), unless this account ceases to exist before election day, in which case an official account operated by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or their campaign, as identified by Metaculus administrators, may be designated their "primary account" for the purposes of this question. In no event shall a combined total across multiple accounts be used.
In the event that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has no official TikTok account as of Sept 30, this question will resolve as **No**, regardless of the reason for no longer having an official account on the platform (including withdrawal from the presidential contest).
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdraws from the race but continues to have an official TikTok account on Sept 30, this question will resolve based on the number of followers the account has on Sept 30; it should not be annulled on account of the end of their campaign.
|
2024-07-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T17:23:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
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