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meta-12568
|
Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?
|
In 1994-96, amidst the chaotic years that followed the breakup of the old Soviet Union, the former Checheno-Ingushetian republic broke away temporarily from Russia, achieving *de facto* independence as the unrecognized [Checen Republic of Ichkeria.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechen_Republic_of_Ichkeria) This status continued until Chechnya was nominally reunited with the Russian Federation in mid-2000, though only with the aid of former jihadist defectors who were granted considerable autonomy.
As of October 2022, Russia is locked in a losing conflict with Ukraine and conducting a chaotic and uneven mobilization. There were reports that certain regions, such as Buryatia, had been subject to harsh, disproportionate, and discriminatory levels of call-up even before partial mobilization was announced.
Resolution Criteria: Federal Subjects are top-level administrative divisions of Russia, similar in concept to U.S. states. *Recognized* federal subjects are those subjects whose Russian status was broadly recognized by the world as of 1 January 2014, prior to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the creation of *de facto* federal subjects on formerly Ukrainian-held land. (Thus nothing happening in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, or Crimea oblasts can trigger positive resolution, despite their *de facto* status as federal Russian subjects.)
A federal subject has broken away if either of the following is true:
* The *de jure* government of a Russian federal subject declares through legal-constitutional procedures its independence or its allegiance to a state other than the Russian Federation or its successor, even if Federal authorities outside of the federal subject reject this declaration as null, invalid, etc.
* A *de facto* regime claiming to represent at least half the population or territorial area of a Russian federal subject, and claiming independence or allegiance to a state other than the Russian Federation or its successor, takes effective territorial control of some part of that federal subject containing at least half the subject's population, or at least 100,000 people, and maintains such control for at least 100 consecutive days.
In close or contestable cases, Metaculus admins will use their best considered judgment in conjunction with reliable sources such as credible world media to determine a resolution status
|
2022-10-04T04:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00Z
|
2025-01-17T02:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12567
|
Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?
|
On November 25, 2018, the [Rubik's Cube world record](https://ruwix.com/blog/yusheng-du-record-347/) was set at 3.47 seconds by Yusheng Du, beating the previous record of 4.22 by 0.75 seconds. Since then, no additional world records have been set, making this the [longest-standing](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) world record in the history of modern Speedcubing.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube single solve taking less than 3.47 seconds is verified by the [World Cube Association](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) by July 1, 2023. If this does not occur, the question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: If the 3.47 second time by Yusheng Du is removed from the WCA's rankings for any reason (e.g. being declared fraudulent), the question's resolution criteria are unaffected. In other words, the question can still resolve positively if a faster time than 3.47 seconds is verified before the deadline.
|
2022-09-24T21:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T03:00:00Z
|
2023-06-14T22:06:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12468
|
Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?
|
Iran and Saudi Arabia have had [no relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations) [since the start of 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_attack_on_the_Saudi_diplomatic_missions_in_Iran), when the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked following the Saudi execution of a prominent Shia cleric. The two countries are engaged in a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict). In 2021, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had five rounds of talks in Baghdad. In July 2022, the Iranian foreign ministry [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-tehran-riyadh-are-interested-holding-further-meetings-2022-07-13/) both sides are interested in more talks, but in August the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-iran-talks-resume-when-conditions-right-iraq-says-iranian-envoy-2022-08-24/) that talks will resume when time is right. In August 2022, the UAE, a close ally of Saudi Arabia, [said](https://archive.ph/2ZJ7c) that its ambassador will resume duties, which had been suspended since 2016.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Saudi Arabia and Iran normalize diplomatic relations before January 1, 2024, as reported by [credible media sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Else, it will resolve as **No**
|
2022-09-18T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2023-03-10T13:11:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12460
|
Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?
|
[Brendan James Fraser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_Fraser), born December 3, 1968, is an American-Canadian actor. He played Rick O'Connell in the Mummy trilogy (1999–2008), and has played leading roles in numerous comedy and fantasy films.
Following a series of injuries and personal mishaps, Fraser's prominence declined markedly in the 2000s and 2010s, leading to stories such as GQ's 2018 article [What Ever Happened To Brendan Fraser?](https://www.gq.com/story/what-ever-happened-to-brendan-fraser) However, in the late 2010s, [popular interest in Fraser and hopes for a career revival began to increase](https://www.insider.com/brendan-fraser-tiktok-brenaissance-viral-reason-2021-11), in a trend commonly referred to as "the Brenaissance."
In January 2021, Fraser was announced as the lead in Darren Aronofsky's upcoming film [The Whale.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Whale_(2022_film)) The film premiered at the Venice International Film Festival in September 2022. Fraser's performance was highly praised and [the film received a six-minute standing ovation](https://variety.com/2022/film/news/brendan-fraser-cries-the-whale-venice-standing-ovation-1235337836/) at the festival. Following this performance, film critic Nicholas Barber wrote "[Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20220904-the-whale-review-brendan-fraser-deserves-an-oscar)."
>Fraser richly deserves to be nominated for a best actor Oscar, and if that doesn't happen, I won't just eat my hat, I'll eat as many pizzas and cheese-and-meatball sandwiches as Charlie gets through in the film. The Brenaissance is here.
Kyle Buchanan of The New York Times [wrote](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/movies/brendan-fraser-the-whale-venice-film-festival.html):
>In Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale,” the onetime leading hunk is earning Oscar chatter for his role as a 600-pound recluse, though the emotional actor is wary.
The Whale is [scheduled](https://collider.com/the-whale-cast-plot-release-date-everything-we-know-so-far/) for theatrical release in the United States on December 9 2022.
[The 95th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/95th_Academy_Awards) ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, will honour films released in 2022, and is scheduled to take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on March 12, 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if at the 95th Academy Awards Brendan Fraser is awarded any Academy Award. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur
|
2022-10-23T04:00:00Z
|
2023-03-11T00:00:00Z
|
2023-03-13T04:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12457
|
Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?
|
With significant change in the political landscape at both the state and federal level expected in November 2022, this question seeks to assess what impact changes in administrative policy may have on the safety of the citizens of Portland, Oregon.
According to an article featured in [the Oregonian Newspaper](https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2022/07/gang-violence-drives-surging-portland-homicide-rate-from-early-2019-to-mid-2021-study-finds.html), “Portland’s homicide rate jumped 207% from January 2019 through June 2021, the largest increase compared to five comparable cities, Minneapolis, Atlanta, San Francisco, Denver and Nashville, according to [a new study](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22088275-2022-pdx-problem-analysis-public-version-1)”
The referenced study was conducted by the California Partnership for Safe Communities in cooperation with the Portland Police Bureau. It shows a dramatic spike in the number of homicides from 36 in 2019, to 88 in 2021. Regrettably, as of September 2022, the number of homicides in the City of Portland was already at 52 homicides for the time period from January 2022 – July 2022, according to the official statistics from the [Portland Police Bureau](https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/71978).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are 100 or more homicide offenses from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023 in Portland, Oregon, according to the [Portland Police Bureau website](https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/71978). The Portland Police Bureau reports using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) maintained by the FBI
|
2023-02-02T23:11:00Z
|
2024-02-01T21:31:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12326
|
By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?
|
On August 24, 2022, President Joe Biden [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/) his plan for the Department of Education to grant broad-based relief of student loans. Per the plan, the DOE will:
1. Cancel $10,000 for Americans with student loan balances who earn $125,000 or less and are single tax filers ($250,000 for those who are married filing jointly).
2. Extend the COVID-era student debt payment moratorium until December 31, 2022.
3. For borrowers who received a Pell Grant, forgive an additional $10,000 in debt.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if by December 31, 2023, the United States Supreme Court takes any action that would block any part of the Biden Administration's plan for broad-based student debt relief. It also resolves as **Yes** if by the same date, a lower court action blocking any part of the plan is declined or passed up for higher court review, such that reputable legal expert sources consulted by Metaculus admins agree the block is most likely to stand indefinitely or permanently.
Else resolves as **No**.
In rare cases this question might resolve as **Ambiguous** per the *Metaculus FAQ:*
> An ambiguous resolution generally implies that there was some inherent ambiguity in the question, that real-world events subverted one of the assumptions of the question, or that there is not a clear consensus as to what in fact occurred.
Generally as a practical matter there should be consensus as to whether or not the courts have taken any action to stop implementation of the Biden-Harris Student Debt Relief plan, based on credible media reporting. Examples of actions include but are not limited to blocking an appeal, declaring a part of a rule invalid, or remanding any case to a lower court where it gets invalidated. The Metaculus Admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.
|
2022-10-23T04:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2023-06-30T12:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12275
|
Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?
|
The [UK cost of living crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_cost_of_living_crisis) is a period starting in 2021 in which prices for many essential goods in the United Kingdom began increasing faster than household income, resulting in a fall in real income. This is caused in part by a rise in inflation in the UK. While all in the UK are affected by rising prices, it most substantially affects low-income persons. Her Majesty's Government has responded in various ways, such as by making provision for a £650 grant for each of the UK's lower income households.
Energy prices have been [forecasted](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/uk-household-energy-bills-forecast-to-hit-5-000-a-year) to hit £5000 by the end of the year. The current Prime Minister has resigned, serving as a caretaker, while the Conservatives are in the process of electing a new leader.
[Martin Lewis](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/explore/tv_personality/Martin_Lewis?content=surveys), the second most popular TV personality has [claimed](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/08/price-cap-forecast-january-action-needed/) that the upcoming crisis "will leave many destitute".
Britain has had riots where more than 100 people have been injured like the [Poll Tax riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_tax_riots), the [2011 England Riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots) and the [1995 Brixton Riot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Brixton_riot). However, the [anti-austerity protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-austerity_movement_in_the_United_Kingdom) and the [2010 student protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_student_protests) while meaningful, did not lead to very many people getting injured.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if three popular British [broadsheet newspapers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom) report at least 100 people injured in cost of living crisis riots over the coming autumn or winter. The news reports should be dated between August 22, 2022 and March 1, 2023.
Fine Print: The protests should be related to the cost of living crisis. For example, if England loses to the final in the World Cup because of a referee mistake and protests erupt, this will not affect the resolution of this question.
|
2022-08-24T21:00:00Z
|
2023-03-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-03-01T16:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12255
|
If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/)
* [If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)
----
On July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).
The initial [proposed question](https://www.niaa.gov.au/indigenous-affairs/referendum-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-voice) is:
> "Do you support an alteration to the constitution that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice?"
The (proposed) sentences to be added to the Constitution are:
> 1. There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.
> 2. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to Parliament and the Executive Government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.
> 3. The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to the composition, functions, powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.
However, as reported by the [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/why-is-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-important/101287716),
> These provisions are expected to be tweaked throughout the consultation process.
As of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.
A national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:
1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and
2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).
As with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Australian Electoral Commission reports that referendum concerning an Indigenous "Voice to Parliament" has received a majority of national votes, and also a majority of votes in a majority of Australian states. If no such national referendum is put to the Australian people before 2026, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
This question will close retroactively 48 hours before the referendum voting day (excluding all ‘pre-polling’ days).
Fine Print: The final referendum question must propose a constitutional amendment which establishes some form of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander representation or advisory body to the Australian Parliament. The precise wording of the referendum question is not relevant to resolution, provided the subject matter of the referendum is clear.
|
2022-08-19T05:00:00Z
|
2023-10-11T21:00:00Z
|
2023-10-16T14:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12217
|
Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)
----
Republican Congresspeople [Ted Cruz](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/) and [Jim Jordan](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/25/jim-jordan-prods-gop-colleagues-consider-impeachin/) have both publicly discussed the possibility of impeaching President Joe Biden if Republicans win control of the House of Representatives following the [2022 midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections). Ted Cruz stated on his podcast in [January 2022](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/):
>Democrats weaponized impeachment [...] they used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
Throughout his term, Biden has maintained that his plan is to run for re-election, as confirmed by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in [June 2022](https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1536477522988343296).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Joe Biden does not complete his full term as the 46th President of the United States from January 20, 2021 to January 20, 2025, as specified by the [20th Amendment]((https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-20/section-1)) of the US Constitution. This may be for any reason, for example, due to his resignation, death, impeachment and removal, or another cause.
This question will not resolve if the Vice President or another person takes the duties of the Acting President as specified in [Sections 3 and 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_3:_President's_declaration_of_inability) of the 25th Amendment (for example, in the case of an [expected medical procedure](https://www.dw.com/en/us-kamala-harris-serves-as-acting-president-during-biden-colonoscopy/a-59883548)); it will only resolve as **Yes** if Biden is fully removed from the office.
This question will also resolve as **Yes** if the President's term is legally determined to end prior to noon on January 20, 2025
|
2022-08-14T04:00:00Z
|
2025-01-19T16:00:00Z
|
2025-01-23T18:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12215
|
If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?
|
Various criminal offenses against the United States include as a potential penalty legal disqualification from holding federal office, theoretically including the presidency of the United States.
These offenses include (inter alia) those under [18 U.S. Code § 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), which states:
>(a)Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.
>(b)Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.
In early August 2022, federal agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. It has been speculated that Trump may eventually be charged with a crime in relation to these documents, potentially including an offense under 18 U.S. Code § 2071.
According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/):
>While the Presidential Records Act does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.
>He could also be charged under a law, known by its code number 2071, making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.
>...
>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.
However, Reuters also notes:
>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.
>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.
Another Metaculus question, '[Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12214/d-j-trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025/),' asks whether Trump will be disqualified from the presidency before inauguration day in 2025. This question asks, contingent on that happening, whether that disqualification will subsequently be ruled unconstitutional prior to inauguration day in 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 20, 2025, the question '[Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12214/d-j-trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025/)' resolves as **Yes**, and if such disqualification is later ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of the United States; OR if such disqualification is ruled unconstitutional by an appellate court inferior to the US Supreme Court, AND the US Supreme Court refuses to hear an appeal against a lower court's prior ruling that such a disqualification is unconstitutional
|
2022-08-13T07:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T00:00:00Z
|
2024-03-04T15:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12214
|
Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?
|
In August 2022, [federal agents executed a search warrant](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/politics/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-fbi-donald-trump/index.html) at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of former US President Donald Trump, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there.
According to CNN:
>The former President confirmed that FBI agents were at Mar-a-Lago and said "they even broke into my safe." He was at Trump Tower in New York when the search warrant was executed in Florida, a person familiar told CNN.
>"My beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents," Trump said in a statement Monday evening.
>...
>"It is a federal crime to remove classified documents wrongly. And so if you are filling out that affidavit and you have to list the crime, you can list that as the crime," said Elie Honig, a former federal and state prosecutor and a CNN senior legal analyst.
According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/ ):
>While the [Presidential Records Act](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/44/chapter-22) does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.
>He could also be charged under [a law, known by its code number 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.
>Even if the search warrant pertains to Trump's handling of official documents, he could end up facing charges for different crimes, said Mitchell Epner, a former federal prosecutor.
>...
>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.
>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.
>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal offices, so long as the presidency is included as an office that Trump is ruled disqualified from holding.
Any later court rulings, such as appeal judgments that overturn the judgment of an earlier court, are immaterial to the resolution of this question: the question resolves immediately if Trump is ruled disqualified, and does not re-resolve differently if an appellate court later determines that judgment to have been unconstitutional, unlawful, or otherwise incorrect
|
2022-08-13T07:00:00Z
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
|
2023-12-19T23:22:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12121
|
Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: Recent media reports suggest the possibility that [North Korea may send troops to Ukraine](https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russian-state-tv-north-korea-offers-kremlin-100000-troops/) to assist Russia.
***Will North Korea have ≥100 troops in Ukraine before 2024, without Ukrainian consent?***
Resolves as **Yes** if 3 [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean military personnel are in Ukraine at any one time (including Crimea and/or the various "People's Republic" quasi-states) in defiance of the will of the recognized Ukrainian government. Based on Kyiv time.
|
2022-10-03T04:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12120
|
Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?
|
Resolution Criteria: PredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market website associated with Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and operated by Aristotle, Inc. On August 4, 2022, PredcitIt [announced](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) that the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had withdrawn the No-Action Letter under which PredictIt had been legally operating since 2014. The CFTC [announcement thereof ](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22) declared that all PredictIt markets must be "closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) on February 15, 2023."
***Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?***
The question will resolve as **Yes** if, on March 15, 2023 at 12:00 pm EST, an ordinary user in the USA can create an account on PredictIt, deposit funds, trade on a prediction market using real currency, and withdraw funds from PredictIt, all legally and without the use of a VPN or similar technology to mask the user's location.
|
2022-08-10T07:00:00Z
|
2023-03-14T17:00:00Z
|
2023-03-15T17:12:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12041
|
Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?
|
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Western Balkan region has seen a flare up in tension both in [Kosovo](https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-border-corssing-blocked-tensions/31967812.html) and in [Republika Srpska](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/eu-mulls-ways-to-ease-tensions-in-bosnia-to-prevent-break-up), prompting some commentators to speculate that this may result in a war / civil war. This question aims to ascertain the probability of an armed conflict of at least a medium magnitude in the region. To avoid any possible conflict on the definition of 'war' or 'civil war', the question is stated in terms of casualties of armed conflict.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if more than 500 combatants of any side in any potential armed conflict in the Balkans are reported KIA by at least 3 credible news outlets or governmental organizations (BBC, Reuters, the UN, EU, NATO, etc.) before January 1, 2025. If multiple armed conflicts occur within the specified time frame, the question will resolve positively if the sum of combatant casualties in all conflicts exceeds 500.
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question, the Balkans consist of: **Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia**. These are all countries with 20%+ of their territory south of the Danube-Sava rivers. Note that this excludes Turkey and Romania.
|
2022-08-12T21:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00Z
|
2025-01-17T02:08:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11919
|
Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?
|
In late June, America began sending [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS) (HIMARS) to Ukraine. Escalation risks being kept keenly in mind, these powerful long-range rocket launchers were sent [on the condition](https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/13/ukraines-new-rockets-are-wreaking-havoc-on-russias-army) that Ukraine would not use them against targets on Russian soil. According to public knowledge, that condition has not since been relaxed.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if HIMARS, or any other American-provided artillery rocket or tactical ballistic missile system firing a warhead at least as heavy as the standard HIMARS rocket's ~200 pounds, is used against targets on Russian soil by Ukraine or Ukraine-aligned forces before July 1, 2023.
Metaculus will consider all credible sources to determine whether an attack on Russian soil can be attributed to Ukraine and to US weapons systems.
Ambiguous resolution will not be selected unless at least two months have passed since the last relevant alleged or disputed rocket strike incident that occurred before July 2023, so as to allow time for clarifying information to surface.
Russian soil means territory that was broadly recognized as Russian on January 1, 2014, prior to the first phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflicts, and prior to the multiple Russian armed takeovers and self-declared annexations of formerly Ukrainian-controlled territories
|
2022-10-04T04:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T20:59:00Z
|
2023-07-01T21:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11624
|
Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: The Supreme Court is currently planning to hear a case, [National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/21-468.html), which will have massive near-term impacts on the welfare of farmed animals raised in the worst conditions.
[Proposition 12](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_Proposition_12) was a California ballot proposition that expanded upon California's already existing ban on caged farming systems (egg-laying hens kept in battery cages and pregnant sows kept in gestation crates). Under Proposition 12, not only would production of animal products made under intensive caged farming systems be illegal in the state, but so would the sale of such products (regardless of where they were made).
The [National Pork Producers Council](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-468/227679/20220610132221228_Natl%20Pork%20Producers%20v%20Ross%20No.%2021-468%20Brief%20for%20Petitioners.pdf) is hoping that the Supreme Court will find California's law in violation of the [Dormant Commerce Clause](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dormant_Commerce_Clause), while California is hoping that the court will consider banning caged farming a legitimate reason to burden interstate commerce and thus uphold their law.
***Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross by the end of 2023?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court rules in National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross that California's Ballot Proposition 12 is unconstitutional. If SCOTUS delivers a mixed ruling that only part of Proposition 12 is unconstitutional, this question will resolve as **Yes** if that part is the more significant part, according to Metaculus' discretion. If SCOTUS remands the case to a lower court, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the final outcome of this case, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case and others, finds that Proposition 12 is unconstitutional, and litigation for this case ends before 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2022-07-15T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2023-05-11T14:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11528
|
Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?
|
[Costco Wholesale Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costco) is an American multinational corporation which operates a chain of membership-only big-box retail stores. As of 2020, Costco was the fifth largest retailer in the world, and the world's largest retailer of choice and prime beef, organic foods, rotisserie chicken, and wine as of 2016. In 2021, Costco was ranked #10 on the Fortune 500 rankings of the largest United States corporations by total revenue.
For decades, Costco has offered for sale in the United States [a combo meal](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/12jIuKNWU8CzKJ0GRL_39A--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQ2Nw--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-03/127c2480-9fb7-11ec-bfff-2a62f952c478) consisting of a "1/4 lb plus" hot dog and a 20 oz soda. Remarkably, [the price of this offering has not changed since 1985](https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-not-raising-price-of-hot-dog-combo-2022-5?r=US&IR=T): it remains $1.50, despite substantial inflation over the last 40 years. As of May 2022, there were reportedly no plans to increase the price in the near future, despite [inflation surging to 40-year highs.](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/10/us-inflation-rate-may-2022-four-decade-high)
According to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-not-raising-price-of-hot-dog-combo-2022-5?r=US&IR=T):
>In a third-quarter earnings call, Senior Vice President Robert Nelson told investors that there were no current plans to increase the food court favorite price, despite "online rumors."
>...
>"We have no plans to take that hot dog above a buck fifty. End of story," Costco CEO Craig Jelinek told shareholders in January 2020.
And according to [a 2018 article](https://www.425business.com/news/costco-ceo-craig-jelinek-on-shareholders-costco-com-and-hot-dogs/article_5ff4b632-1f75-5e98-b9ff-6e02d676668b.html), when current Costco president and CEO W. Craig Jelinek suggested to the company's founder that the $1.50 price was too low, founder James Sinegal replied:
>"If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 1, 2025, any Costco location in the continental United States (the contiguous 48 states + D.C.) increases the price of the 1/4 lb hot dog and 20 oz soda combo meal to greater than $1.50, or decreases either the weight of the hot dog or the volume of soda sold while maintaining the price of the combo at $1.50. This question will resolve only if the price increase / quantity decrease actually takes effect (an announcement of intent to change the deal does not qualify).
If the combo meal is discontinued entirely before 2025, without any price increase or weight/volume decrease, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**
|
2022-06-25T04:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T02:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11496
|
Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?
|
Traditionally, the US FDA and other major medical/regulatory bodies in the US have taken a [conservative approach](https://www.propublica.org/article/this-scientist-created-a-rapid-test-just-weeks-into-the-pandemic-heres-why-you-still-cant-get-it) to authorizing at-home over-the-counter rapid tests — that is, tests that can be acquired without a prescription and which can performed entirely at home in an unsupervised manner and within a short time span (usually, about 10-25 minutes). The Institute for Progress said the [following](https://progress.institute/taking-emergency-use-authorization-seriously/) in January 2022 (at the peak of the Omicron wave) about the issue with FDA's conservative approach:
> The United States doesn’t have enough rapid tests. The root cause of this shortage is that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) doesn’t have an appropriate framework for thinking about tradeoffs during an emergency ... Rapid tests provide a key example of where the FDA has treated clinical trial data as necessary when other data should be sufficient for authorization during a public health emergency. Despite the broad benefit to the public of having rapid tests widely available, their supposed individual inferiority to PCR has kept almost all of them off the market.
As of June 14, 2022, there are 20 at-home over-the-counter rapid tests for SARS-CoV-2 that [have been authorized by FDA](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/home-otc-covid-19-diagnostic-tests). However, to date there are no at-home over-the-counter rapid tests for influenza that have been authorized by FDA. A recent study on such a test found [encouraging results](https://publichealth.jmir.org/2022/2/e28268): "sensitivity and specificity of the self-test were comparable with those of .... clinical settings ... deployment of home tests may provide a valuable tool to support the management of influenza."
The purpose of this question is to understand the potential for the US FDA to authorize an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza. Such a test may play a key role in helping to reduce transmission of seasonal influenza and, critically, can play an important role from the very start of any potential future flu pandemics.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [US FDA](https://www.fda.gov/) authorizes an at-home over-the-counter rapid test against influenza at any point before January 1, 2025. Any kind of authorization, including emergency use authorization, will be sufficient for this question.
Such a test must meet the following requirements for this question:
- be able to detect both influenzas A and B
- at-home, meaning the entirety of the testing process (collecting of sample, performing the test, reading of result) can be done at home without need for supervision or for anything to be sent to a laboratory
- over-the-counter, meaning a prescription is not needed
- rapid, meaning it quickly tests for influenza and does not take longer than 30 minutes
No additional requirements (such as accuracy, cost, or supply) are necessary for resolution
|
2022-06-23T21:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
2023-02-24T19:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11434
|
Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?
|
From [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/texas-secede-us-2023-gop-pushes-referendum-1717254),
> Texas Republicans are pushing for a referendum to decide whether the state should secede from the U.S.
> The demand for Texans to be allowed to vote on the issue in 2023 was one of many measures adopted in the Texas GOP's party platform following last week's state convention in Houston.
> Under a section titled "State Sovereignty," the platform states: "Pursuant to Article 1, Section 1, of the Texas Constitution, the federal government has impaired our right of local self-government. Therefore, federally mandated legislation that infringes upon the 10th Amendment rights of Texas should be ignored, opposed, refused, and nullified.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if BOTH of the following become true before January 1 2024,
1. The state of Texas holds an official referendum on whether to secede from the United States. An official referendum is one that is administered by state officials, with approval from the Texas Secretary of State, regardless of whether courts have determined that the referendum is illegal.
2. The referendum passes with plurality support.
Crucially, the federal government of the United States need not recognize the validity of the referendum for this question to resolve as **Yes**
|
2022-06-23T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T08:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T06:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11421
|
Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?
|
[Sarah Elizabeth Sanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Sanders), born August 13, 1982, also known as Sarah Huckabee Sanders, is an American political analyst and politician. She was the 31st White House press secretary, serving under former President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2019. She was the third woman to serve in that position. Sanders previously worked on the election campaigns of her father, Arkansas governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, and later served as a senior advisor on Trump's 2016 presidential campaign.
As of June 2022, Sanders is the Republican Party's nominee in [the 2022 Arkansas gubernatorial election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Arkansas_gubernatorial_election)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Sarah Sanders is, at any time, the 2024 Republican Party nominee for either President of the United States or Vice President of the United States. This question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur
|
2022-07-28T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-08T00:00:00Z
|
2024-11-06T21:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11346
|
Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?
|
In the US, a public health emergency (PHE) [can be declared](https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phedeclaration.aspx) in response to a disease/disorder, significant infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack:
> The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.
Here, we are specifically asking about a PHE being declared in response to a significant outbreak of infectious disease or a bioterrorist attack. Since August 2005, there have been [three such unique declarations](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/default.aspx): [H1N1 Flu](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/h1n1.aspx), [Zika](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/zika-pr.aspx), and [COVID-19](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx).
The purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a new PHE being declared at some point in the coming years, which is important for informing near-term pandemic preparedness efforts.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, the US declares a new public health emergency due to an outbreak of infectious disease or a bioterrorist attack.
For this question, an event will be considered a "bioterrorist attack" or an "infectious disease outbreak" *solely* if the US government describes it as such in relation to the PHE declaration
|
2022-06-16T21:00:00Z
|
2025-01-03T22:00:00Z
|
2022-08-04T13:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11274
|
Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?
|
The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. According to a [March 2021 joint article](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/no-government-can-address-the-threat-of-pandemics-alone-we-must-come-together) by leaders of 23 countries as well as President of the European Council and Director-General of the World Health Organisation, the main goal of such a treaty would be to:
>
foster an all of government and all of society approach, strengthening national, regional and global capacities and resilience to future pandemics. This includes greatly enhancing international co-operation to improve, for example, alert systems, data-sharing, research and local, regional and global production and distribution of medical and public health counter-measures such as vaccines, medicines, diagnostics and personal protective equipment.
[According](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/pandemic-treaty/) to the European Council, the following are the anticipated next steps of the planned treaty:
> The intergovernmental negotiating body, tasked with drafting and negotiating this international instrument, will hold its next meeting by 1 August 2022, to discuss progress on a working draft. It will then deliver a progress report to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim to adopt the instrument by 2024.
The purpose of this question is to [understand](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-usa-sovereignty-who/) the potential of this treaty to be adopted.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by December 31, 2024, at least 10 countries have ratified an new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness. This question concerns only new treaties, meaning treaties which have not been ratified by any nation as of June 1, 2022
|
2022-06-09T21:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11272
|
Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?
|
The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted innovation in face masks, including [through](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) a US BARDA [mask innovation challenge](https://drive.hhs.gov/mask_challenge.html).
According to BARDA's [target product profile](https://www.challenge.gov/?challenge=mask-innovation-challenge-phase2&tab=resources), the main performance measures for its challenge are:
>
- Thermal Burden & Moisture Retention
- Breathability
- Leakage Ratio
- Filter Efficiency
On June 6, 2022, BARDA [announced](https://www.medicalcountermeasures.gov/stories/maskfinalists/) the 10 finalists of the second phase of its mask innovation challenge. The final phase will result in two top winning designs and two runner-ups. BARDA [plans](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) on announcing these in October.
The purpose of this question is to understand whether the winning designs of BARDA's mask innovation challenge will be commercially available and affordable to the general public. This may inform the need for further mask innovation.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of the four winning mask designs (the top two winners/two runner-ups) is commercially available and costs less than $1 per unit on or before December 31, 2024. If the mask is reusable — for the purposes of this question, meaning it is expected to last for at least 1 month of daily usage — then it can cost up to $25 per unit. All prices in the resolution of this question will be [inflation-indexed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) to 2021 USD. The mask should be available for purchase on [Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/), since it [dominates](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211102005144/en/92-of-Consumers-Are-More-Likely-to-Buy-Products-From-Amazon-According-to-Feedvisor%E2%80%99s-Consumer-Report) e-commerce.
*13 July clarification: A sale where the price of the product is temporarily discounted would count for this question if such a sale lasts for at least 6 consecutive months at a price of less than $1 per unit (or $25 per unit for those reusable for at least a month of daily usage).
Any possible limits on bulk purchases will not affect resolution of this question.*
|
2022-06-09T21:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-09T00:47:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11270
|
Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?
|
Metagenomic sequencing is an approach that characterizes all of the genetic material (DNA and RNA) that is present in a sample. Recent developments in metagenomics, namely the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, have [enabled](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0113-7) billions of base pair reads in a single run — allowing for a relatively fast and inexpensive analysis of all the genetic content of a sample. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) is different from most other approaches in that it can be untargeted as opposed to involving the targeting of specific pathogens.
As additional context, the following is a relevant description about mNGS [by](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/November/Metagenomic-Next-Generation-Sequencing-How-Does-It) the American Society for Microbiology:
> Metagenomic NGS (mNGS) is simply running all nucleic acids in a sample, which may contain mixed populations of microorganisms, and assigning these to their reference genomes to understand which microbes are present and in what proportions. The ability to sequence and identify nucleic acids from multiple different taxa for metagenomic analysis makes this a powerful new platform that can simultaneously identify genetic material from entirely different kingdoms of organisms.
The purpose of this question is to understand whether untargeted metagenomic next-generation sequencing will be utilized on a large scale in the US for pathogen identification.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US CDC is either sponsoring or supporting a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program that has at least 50 total sites in at least 10 different [counties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_(United_States)s) at any time before December 31, 2024, according to credible media reports. At least one of the goals of such a program should be identification of novel pathogens. The program must be active on or before December 31, 2024, meaning that at least 50 sites across at least 10 counties are actively doing metagenomic sequencing on envrionmental samples or random clinical samples.
As an example of what form such a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program might take, consider the CDC's ongoing [COVID wastewater surveillance program](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance). This COVID-specific program involves state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments submitting testing data to CDC, and CDC then standardizing and interpreting the data. As of June 5, 2022, there are 748 sites with "current data," and hundreds of US counties are represented.
|
2022-06-09T21:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T02:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11265
|
Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Twitter make personal ID authentication obligatory by July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11229/obligatory-id-authentication-on-twitter/)
----
Currently, Twitter doesn't make verification generally available. To be eligible, an account must fulfill notability standards, such as having a Wikipedia article associated with the account. Additionally, the account must follow the rules and have been used at least once in the previous 6 months. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))
Authentication methods are currently either providing a photo ID, linking to an official website that in turn links to the Twitter account in question, or providing an email address that is associated with a verified internet domain. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))
Elon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)
> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!
> And authenticate all real humans
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, all Twitter accounts are eligible for verification using at least one of the authentication methods mentioned above (photo ID, website or verified email address).
For the purposes of this question, Twitter may impose some requirements on verifying accounts, so long as they can be met by most genuine human users, such as requiring accounts to log in at least once in the past 6 months. Twitter may require payment of no more than $15 USD for permanent verification.
This question will resolve as **No** if verification is not generally offered at any point between June 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023
|
2022-06-10T21:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T10:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T14:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11229
|
Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11265/verification-generally-available-on-twitter/)
----
Currently, Twitter doesn't make ID authentication obligatory. [From their help center](https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/twitter-law-enforcement-support):
> Twitter doesn’t require real name use, email verification, or identity authentication.
Elon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)
> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!
> And authenticate all real humans
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if new Twitter accounts created on July 1, 2023 require personal ID authentication. So when setting up a new account a person is required to provide a document that is tied to themselves and identifies their name, for example a passport or driver's license or a credit card.
If personal ID authentication is not offered, or offered and not obligatory for the creation of new accounts, or obligatory at some time (but not on July 1, 2023), then this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: There might be exceptions, for example for corporate accounts, where Twitter chooses different verification methods than personal ID verification. This question is concerned with Twitter accounts that are used by a single person.
|
2022-06-10T21:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T10:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T15:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-11181
|
Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?
|
The next [Nigerian Presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerian_presidential_election) is scheduled to be held on February 25, 2023. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is term-limited and may not seek reelection.
As of June 2023, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has nominated Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President (1999-2007), as its candidate. The PDP last held the Nigerian Presidency during the Goodluck Jonathan administration from 2010 to 2015. The incumbent APC has nominated APC Leader and former Lagos State Governor (1999-2007) Bola Tinubu.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least two credible media sources declare the PDP candidate the winner of the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election. It resolves as **No** otherwise
|
2022-06-12T05:00:00Z
|
2023-02-24T17:00:00Z
|
2023-03-01T08:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-10919
|
Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?
|
Johnny Depp is a multiple award-winning actor, [who resigned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Depp#2012%E2%80%932020:_Career_setbacks) from his most recent role in 2018 after public allegations of domestic abuse. He has not received a role in any film produced by major studio since then, which he attributes to this allegation. He has initiated a [defamation lawsuit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depp_v._Heard) against his former wife Amber Heard, denying the allegations of abuse, [describing himself](https://deadline.com/2021/09/johnny-depp-cancel-culture-so-far-out-of-hand-no-one-is-safe-asks-people-to-stand-up-against-injustice-1234842145/) as a victim of cancel culture.
Public opinion has generally supported Depp, with Buzzfeed [reporting](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ikrd/milani-cosmetics-tiktok-about-johnny-depp-and-amber-heard) that videos tagged with #JusticeForJohnnyDepp have received 200 times more views than those tagged #JusticeForAmberHeard.
Resolution Criteria: For the purpose of this question, "major film studio" is defined as one of the five major studio conglomerates listed on [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_film_studios#Present), and film contract is defined as: "a paid contract to physically or voice act in a film which is described as "feature-length", planned to be released in movie theaters, or is at least 90 minutes long; or, a Metaculus moderator believes it likely that one of these criteria will be met, if the evidence is ambiguous. The contract must require Johnny Depp to have new recordings (as opposed to repurchasing existing work)."
This question will resolve positive if it is publicly reported that Depp has signed a contract with one of the studios by January 1, 2024
|
2022-05-16T07:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T08:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-10831
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?
|
*About the Potential Recipient*: [Volodymr Zelenskyy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy) became president of Ukraine in 2019. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and global attention to Zelenskyy increased dramatically ([English Wikipedia pageviews](https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&redirects=0&start=2021-01-28&end=2022-04-28&pages=Volodymyr_Zelenskyy), [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fm%2F0w4j2z1)). Sentiment in Europe and the United States has been broadly positive. Examples:
* [Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy tops POLITICO 28 poll as most powerful person in Europe](https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-europe-most-powerful-person-politico28-2022-poll/) (survey from early March 2022)
* [Two thirds of Britons have a favourable opinion of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/17/what-do-britons-think-ukrainian-president-volodymy) (YouGov survey, mid-March 2022)
* [Zelenskyy inspires widespread confidence from U.S. public as views of Putin hit new low](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/30/zelenskyy-inspires-widespread-confidence-from-u-s-public-as-views-of-putin-hit-new-low/) (Pew survey, mid/late March)
*About the Prize*: [Wikipedia summarizes the award process as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize#Award_process):
> Nomination forms are sent by the Nobel Committee to about 3,000 individuals, usually in September the year before the prizes are awarded. These individuals are generally prominent academics working in a relevant area. Regarding the Peace Prize, inquiries are also sent to governments, former Peace Prize laureates, and current or former members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The deadline for the return of the nomination forms is 31 January of the year of the award. The Nobel Committee nominates about 300 potential laureates from these forms and additional names. The nominees are not publicly named, nor are they told that they are being considered for the prize. All nomination records for a prize are sealed for 50 years from the awarding of the prize.
Note that this implies that the deadline for nomination for the 2022 award passed before the invasion began.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "**Yes**" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is announced as the sole or joint winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2022 or 2023.
Fine Print: Positive resolution does not require Zelenskyy to accept the prize, nor does it require him to survive until the prize is awarded. Note that [while the Prize cannot be *announced* for a person who has died, it can still be awarded posthumously to someone who dies after announcement but before collection](https://www.nobelprize.org/frequently-asked-questions/#posthumously).
If no Nobel Peace Prizes are awarded for either the years 2022 or 2023, this question will resolve as "**ambiguous**". If any such prizes are delayed to be awarded later than January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as "**ambiguous**".
|
2022-05-02T07:00:00Z
|
2023-12-30T16:00:00Z
|
2023-10-06T09:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-9589
|
Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?
|
Nigeria experienced nine attempted or successful [coups](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_coups_in_Nigeria) between 1966 and 1993. The country [exited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Nigerian_Republic) military rule in 1999.
Recent (starting 2021) military coups or coup attempts in Western Africa and the Sahel region have occurred in [Niger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt), [Mali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), [Guinea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), [Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), and [Burkina Faso](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Burkinab%C3%A9_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat).
Nigeria has been suffering from several [severe issues](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/10/23/insurgency-secessionism-and-banditry-threaten-nigeria) in 2021, including jihadist insurgency in the north, kidnapping gangs, as well as resurgent Biafran separatism. In 2021, The Economist called Nigeria "[ungovernable](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/how-kidnappers-zealots-and-rebels-are-making-nigeria-ungovernable/21805737)" and Foreign Policy called the nation a "[failed state](https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/27/nigeria-is-a-failed-state/)".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if an armed group takes control of the government of Nigeria for a period of 7 days or more between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2025. This coup need not be brought by violence or assassination of Nigerian heads of state, but must not occur due to normal democratic processes such as a free democratic election or voluntary resignation by heads of state. Credible media reports will suffice as a source
|
2022-01-31T05:00:00Z
|
2024-12-30T13:00:00Z
|
2025-01-31T15:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-9487
|
Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?
|
The generation interval is the time taken from the moment a person gets infected to the moment they infect a second person. On a population level, and as each individual typically transmits to multiple people, this forms a distribution. Along with the effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections from a single infected person), the generation interval distribution can be used to estimate the rate of transmission, forecast future infections, estimate the effectiveness of control measures, and potentially estimate the timing of an outbreak's peak and its final size.
If two infectious diseases have the same reproduction number but one has a shorter generation interval then case numbers for that disease will rise and fall more quickly than for a disease with longer generation intervals. Similarly, if it is wrongly assumed that two diseases have the same generation interval when one is actually shorter then estimates of the reproduction number will be biased upwards. This may result in poor quality forecasts and impact the policy interventions implemented.
[Estimation of the generation interval is complex](https://twitter.com/sbfnk/status/1478468932155723779) as both it and the effective reproduction number may change over time, across locations, and within subpopulations. We can think of the generation interval as being composed of both an individual's infectiousness over time and their contacts with others. Both of these are likely to differ due to demographic factors (such as age) with an [individual's infectiousness](https://github.com/VirologyCharite/SARS-CoV-2-VL-paper) likely also being altered by the effectiveness of their immune system and characteristics of the disease itself. The number, and type, of contacts for infected individuals, are also likely to vary over time and this can be impacted by mitigation efforts leading to reductions in the estimated generation interval ([such as contact tracing](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.17.21266051v1)). Finally, realised generation intervals may be dependent on the transmissibility of a disease with more transmissible diseases more rapidly depleting their local networks ([such as households](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.21.21265216v1)), and local (or global) high prevalence leading to an observed [reduction due to competition effects between infectors](https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2024v3).
There are several transmission distributions that are related to the generation time including the serial interval (which is the time between the onset of symptoms for an infector and an infectee) , and the test-to-test distribution (which similarly is the interval between the case report of an infector and an infectee). These distributions may be used as a [proxy for the generation time](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2020.0756) due to the difficulty in estimating the generation time. However, both of these measures are subject to a range of additional biases especially for pathogens that can transmit before the onset of symptoms, such as COVID-19.
Resolution Criteria: Will 3, or more, of the 5 most cited studies (available on the 1st of January 2023 that refer to the generation time/interval of Omicron in the title as returned by a Google Scholar search for generation, time or interval, and Omicron) which estimate the generation interval or a transmission distribution proxy (such as the serial interval, or the test-to-test distribution) conclude (if no conclusion is made a study will be discarded and the next most cited study included) that the mean intrinsic (or realised if not distinguished) generation interval of Omicron is shorter than that of Delta? If fewer than 5 studies are found then the majority conclusion from these studies will be used.
Fine Print: Question composed by Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, and Sebastion Funk
|
2022-02-01T22:59:00Z
|
2023-01-01T10:21:00Z
|
2023-06-12T14:52:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-9471
|
Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?
|
[Score-Then-Automatic-Runoff voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STAR_voting) (STAR voting) is a proposed voting system for selecting a single winner among multiple candidates. There have been [some campaigns](https://www.starvoting.us/campaigns) to adopt STAR voting in the US, but as of January 2022, it is not used for political elections anywhere in the world.
According to a [January 2022 article by the Daily Breeze](https://www.dailybreeze.com/2022/01/12/redondo-beachs-voting-method-may-change-after-2023/), Rodondo Beach may be the first city to adopt this method:
>The City Council this week took the first step toward implementing one of two similar-but-distinct voting systems, ranked-choice-voting or score-then-automatic-runoff, also known as STAR voting.
>[...] As of now, residents will vote for either of the new methods during Redondo’s March 2023 general city election, the council decided Tuesday.
The currently drafted resolution also asks voters for their preference for a [ranked-choice voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting), or to remain with their [current voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if [STAR voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STAR_voting) is chosen as [Redondo Beach's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redondo_Beach,_California) next voting system in the March 2023 general election, according to Redondo Beach's [City Clerc's Office](https://www.redondo.org/depts/city_clerk/election_info/election_results.asp). In the case that STAR voting is not an option in Redondo Beach's March 2023 election, this question will resolve negatively.
For the purposes of this question, a STAR voting system is one that uses the general method outlined by the [STAR voting project](https://www.starvoting.us/star), regardless of the specific score used
|
2022-01-31T06:00:00Z
|
2023-03-03T23:00:00Z
|
2023-03-16T17:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-9415
|
Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?
|
[Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as first lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001 as the wife of President Bill Clinton.
A member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in [the 2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party. Clinton won the popular vote in the election, but did not win enough Electoral College votes to become president, losing to Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
As of January 2022, incumbent President Joe Biden, the oldest president in history, is unpopular, with [a 42.2% approval rating.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) Due to his advanced age and low popularity, there has been speculation that he will not be re-nominated by the Democratic Party as their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and [some have suggested that Clinton could make a comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-2024-comeback-president-biden-harris-democrat-nominee-race-2022-midterm-loss-11641914951) and seek the presidency once more.
Resolution Criteria: This question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that on or before August 7 2024, 90 days before the election, Hillary Clinton (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. Clinton must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution
|
2022-01-23T08:00:00Z
|
2024-11-07T00:00:00Z
|
2024-08-08T04:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-9086
|
Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?
|
[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea, in the period between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024
|
2022-01-20T08:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8981
|
Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?
|
The [Chinese Economy](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI) has grown remarkably fast in recent decades, with 10-20% annual growth in GDP. Q1 of 2020 marked the one exception where GDP declined by 6% compared to Q1 2019, due to China's heavy lockdowns during the early [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if China's GDP in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2022 are greater than the previous quarter, according to the [OECD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI)
|
2021-12-27T06:00:00Z
|
2023-04-01T16:00:00Z
|
2023-03-31T17:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8945
|
Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?
|
[Cookies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_cookie) are a fundamental web technology which allows web servers to identify individual users, such as showing an email inbox only to an authorized user. However, this same technology has enabled online advertisers to build profiles of user behavior and deliver target advertisements, which privacy advocates like the [Electronic Frontier Foundation](https://www.eff.org/pages/privacy-badger) object to.
In June 2021, [Google planned](https://blog.google/products/chrome/updated-timeline-privacy-sandbox-milestones/) to replace third party cookies with Google Analytics’ own system: [Federated Learning of Cohorts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federated_Learning_of_Cohorts) (FLoC). This will allow advertisers to target users based on behaviour, but will prevent them from tracking users across sites.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if Google releases an updated version of chrome which blocks third-party cookies by default before January 1, 2024. This version must be the on the main branch, not a beta version or [chromium](https://www.chromium.org/) version. Resolution may come from credible media reports.
For this question, “Third party cookie” refers to a cookie set by javascript code that does not belong to the site the user is visiting. This question will resolve if third-party cookies are blocked by default on Chrome; it is irrelevant if Google implements FLoC or any other advertising mechanism by 2024
|
2021-12-20T06:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T22:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8931
|
Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?
|
Magnus Carlsen, the current and five-time [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship), has recently [hinted](https://chess24.com/en/read/news/carlsen-hints-he-s-played-last-world-championship-match) that the 2021 World Chess Championship may have been the final time he will defend his title against a challenger.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Magnus Carlsen plays and finishes at least one game in the next World Chess Championship match (the first one after the championship held in 2021). It will resolve as **No** if the championship is held but Carlsen is not one of the players.
This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if the next championship is not held before January 1, 2025
|
2021-12-21T00:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
2023-04-09T18:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8851
|
Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?
|
Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like [Eat Just](https://www.ju.st/) can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in [Singapore for $23](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/singapore-restaurant-first-ever-to-serve-eat-just-lab-grown-chicken.html).
And it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat marketplace.
"There are now more than [70 cellular meat companies globally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/whole-foods-founder-mackey-invests-in-producer-of-cultured-meat) cultivating meats ranging from chicken to foie gras to kangaroo. Cultured meat could make up as much as 35% of the $1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040, according to an estimate from Kearney."
Large, and growing, investments into these startup companies help spur the possibility of industrial and large-scale production, a step that would dramatically reduce the cost of production, and ultimately the price, for cultivated meat products. The current presence of investors in these companies, and in the industry as a whole, indicates a belief that these companies will be able to operate for a profit at scale in the future. In between 2019 and 2020, total investments in the industry [grew 6x!](https://gfi.org/blog/2020-state-of-the-industry-highlights/)
Although no company has secured a commercial-scale facility or supply chain in place, several startup companies in the industry are making headway on achieving such a goal within the next five years. As countries push to follow Singapore's lead in legalizing the commercial sale of cultivated meat products, the possibility of a profitable cultivated meat company becomes increasingly likely.
Therefore it would be interesting to forecast the future commercial development.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if a company that focuses primarily on the production and sale of cultivated meat products becomes profitable by generating an overall profit or financial gain within a 365 day period.
We define "focuses primarily" to mean a company must generate at least 80% of its revenue from the sale of cultivated meat-related products, or cultivated meat-related intellectual property. All products produced by the company must include at least 20% cultivated meat grown from animal cells that do not require the slaughter of the animal. Cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in a cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
The profit announcement must be reported through at least three reputable news sources, or through media releases by the company. The company does not need to publish balance sheets if it is private, although in the case the company becomes public before, or during the year it becomes profitable, balance sheets can provide resolution. It is also sufficient if a profit claim is made by a market report or analysis by an organization such as The Good Food Institute
|
2021-12-13T15:00:00Z
|
2022-12-31T00:00:00Z
|
2023-07-24T14:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8843
|
Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?
|
While once prohibitively high, the cost of plant-based meat [continues to fall](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive), with Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat's ground 'beef' prices now much closer to par with the average price for ground beef in America.
However, with an industry optimized for efficiency over the last hundred years, and subsidized by the government, [animal agriculture is a hard market to beat](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/2/2/22260454/impossible-foods-burger-plant-based-meat). Artificially low prices from failing to provide for negative externalities on animal welfare, worker welfare, and ecological damage allow meat producers and companies to consistently under-price their goods.
As plant based meat companies grow and are able to produce at scale, costs of production decrease and a virtuous cycle begins where lower prices draw larger numbers of consumers, which in turn allows for more efficiently scaled production. This is what has allowed for the most recent 20% price cut on Impossible Foods ground 'beef,' and leads experts to believe that plant based meat will eventually [become much more cost effective](https://gfi.org/blog/plant-based-meat-will-be-less-expensive/) than animal based products.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price for all uncooked ground beef across the U.S cities in February 2021 was $4.556 per pound, a 6% increase from February 2020. In the spring of 2021 the average price of ground plant-based beef from Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat (per their websites) is approximately $12.5 per pound. Therefore we ask about further development of these prices.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the mean price per pound of plant-based meat, averaged from Impossible Food and Beyond Meat, is less than the average price per pound of all uncooked ground beef at any point between December 13, 2021 to April 22, 2023.
The average price per pound of plant-based meat will be averaged from the retail price per pound of Impossible Foods ground beef ([using their 12 ounce pack](https://impossiblefoods.com/products/burger/12-oz-pack)) and Beyond Meat ground beef ([using their Beef Bulk Pack](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/beyond-beef-six-pack?variant=beef). If these specific products are not available at time of resolution, a comparable bulk-package ground beef product by the same company will be used instead. Prices for each product will be taken from either the manufacturer's direct-to-customer e-commerce website or major US online grocers (such as Walmart or Amazon), whichever is cheapest, excepting sales and special offers.
We are asking only about companies Beyond and Impossible. If a new company is created (other than Beyond/Impossible) that creates artificial ground beef and is able to bring prices down to answer this question, this question will still resolve negatively. (A year is a short time to start a new company and such a new company may have introductory prices that don't reflect real costs).
If either Beyond Meat or Impossible foods stops producing plant-based ground beef before the resolution is met, or if either company discontinues their multi-pound ground beef options, admins can select other similar plant-based companies, or company products, that adequately fulfill the brief to resolve the question. Other products, if used to calculated the average price per pound of plant-based ground beef, must be 100% plant-based and listed as a substitute for ground beef.
Conventional ground beef prices will be sourced from the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandmidwest_table.htm) (the "U.S. city average" figures shall be used). If these statistics are not available in April 2023, an equivalent statistic will be chosen, preferably published by a government organization.
|
2021-12-13T15:00:00Z
|
2022-12-31T00:00:00Z
|
2023-04-25T14:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8835
|
Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?
|
In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.
The proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves positively if there are credible news stories or government publications reporting that in U.S. immigration law, the per-country caps on employment-based visas have been phased out before 2025.
Positive resolution does not require changing the overall 140k limit on all countries in sum, only the removal of the per-country cap on employment-based visas.
It also does not require other types of visas to have their country-caps changed or removed
|
2021-12-21T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-17T01:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8831
|
Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?
|
[Elizabeth Mary Truss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss), born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, Truss has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
As of December 2021, Truss enjoys a [very high approval rating from members of the Conservative Party.](https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Elizabeth Truss holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party on a permanent basis (an interim leadership pending a leadership contest does not count)
|
2021-12-11T08:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2022-09-05T11:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8816
|
Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the US break up Meta Platforms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9597/date-meta-faces-antitrust-violations/)
----
[Meta Platforms, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_platforms), formerly known as Facebook, Inc., is a multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company is the parent organization of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, among other subsidiaries.
Meta [acquired a number of other companies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitions_by_Meta_Platforms) most notably another social network Instagram (in 2012) and messaging platform WhatsApp (in 2014) since it's inception as "thefacebook.com" in 2004.
A number of politicians (e.g. [Elizabeth Warren](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elizabeth-warren-calls-break-facebook-google-amazon-n980911)) consider these acquisitions anticompetitive and call for forced breaking up of Meta.
#### Facebook and FTC
In December 2020 US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a [lawsuit](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2020/12/ftc-sues-facebook-illegal-monopolization) claiming illegal monopolization. Lawsuit [was dismissed](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921.73.0.pdf) by the Judge in June 2021.
In August 2021 FTC [filed a new lawsuit](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2021/08/ftc-alleges-facebook-resorted-illegal-buy-or-bury-scheme-crush) alleging "Facebook resorted to illegal buy-or-bury scheme to crush competition after string of failed attempts to innovate". According to new complaint
> Facebook is likely to impose anticompetitive conditions on access to its platform and seek to acquire companies it perceives as potential threats, especially when it next faces “acute competitive pressures from a period of technological transition."
#### CMA's order to sell Giphy
On Nov 30, 2021, UK's Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) issued Meta an [order to sell Giphy](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-directs-facebook-to-sell-giphy), a gif-search engine, [acquired for $400M in May 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giphy#Acquisition_by_Facebook). According to CMA's review
> Facebook would be able to increase its already significant market power in relation to other social media platforms by:
>
> - denying or limiting other platforms’ access to Giphy GIFs, driving more traffic to Facebook-owned sites – Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram – which already account for 73% of user time spent on social media in the UK, or
>
> - changing the terms of access by, for example, requiring TikTok, Twitter and Snapchat to provide more user data in order to access Giphy GIFs.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2025, Meta has sold or divested from Instagram or WhatsApp, according to credible media reports. The divestment must be complete before January 1, 2025 in order to resolve positively. Divestment may be for any reason, whether it is a voluntary decision by Meta or due to a government order (such as an Antitrust violation ordered by the [US FTC](https://www.ftc.gov/)
|
2022-02-19T06:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-14T08:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8800
|
Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Space Debris Kill an Astronaut by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8750/will-space-debris-kill-an-astronaut-by-2025/)
----
[As far as we know](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.economist.com/science-and-technology/2019/08/10/no-one-has-yet-been-killed-by-re-entering-space-junk), re-entering space debris has yet to kill a human on earth.
***Will space debris kill a human on earth by 2025?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if by January 1, 2025, re-entering space debris has killed at least one human on Earth according to credible media reports. Indirect deaths on earth (e.g. because a downed satellite damages critical healthcare communications) will not count for the purposes of this question. For the purposes of this question, space debris will be defined as human-made material that had an altitude of 100 kilometers or greater for at least 90 minutes.
|
2022-08-07T05:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T20:20:00Z
|
2025-01-01T05:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8774
|
Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?
|
The Communications Decency Act of 1996, and specifically [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230), were the result of a rare display of bi-partisanship during the Bill Clinton presidency (1993-2001). The legislation was driven by the efforts of Chris Cox, Republican congressman and former White House staffer for Ronald Reagan, who joined hands with Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden in an effort to allow then-nascent Internet service providers to moderate online discussions and suppress pornography and other content.
The next year, the Supreme Court struck down most of the anti-porn provisions on freedom-of-speech grounds, and Section 230 was left as the main consequence of the new legislation: Internet providers, whether moderating content or not, were from then on fairly safe from lawsuits regarding any of the content they publish and any decisions on which users are allowed to publish.
Backlash against Section 230 grew among Republicans and the right in the 2010s, as discussion groups and influential users with hundreds of thousands of followers, such as Yiannopoulos, were banned from platforms with no recourse. Democrats and the left also expressed significant concerns from the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2017, following accusations that Facebook – in particular – was used to spread disinformation that benefited Trump’s campaign.
Trump launched [an effort to terminate Section 230](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-preventing-online-censorship/) in May 2020. Then-presidential candidate Joe Biden was also expressing support for striking down the controversial legislation, although he later took down [Trump’s executive order on the matter](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/biden-revokes-trump-executive-order-that-targeted-section-230/ar-BB1gLnW9).
Political discussion is heating up on the issue and may heat up even further if the GOP regains control of Congress next year; Big Tech is resolutely opposed to the move – in March, Google CEO [Sundar Pichai warned Congress](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-ceo-warns-of-unintended-consequences-if-congress-kills-section-230-153748127.html) of unintended consequences if Section 230 were revoked.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to January 20, 2025, Section 230 of The Communications Decency Act of 1996 is revoked or modified in any way from its [current text](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_States_Code/Title_47/Chapter_5/Subchapter_II/Part_I/Section_230)
|
2022-02-01T06:00:00Z
|
2024-12-30T15:26:00Z
|
2025-01-23T19:23:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8771
|
Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?
|
In 1998, the U.S. congress passed the [Copyright Term Extension Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Term_Extension_Act), which extended copyright protection on works that were covered by copyright in 1923, changing the date on which they would enter the public domain to 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if, after December 31, 2023, all versions of Mickey Mouse (including his depiction in 1928 in Steamboat Willie) remain under the copyright of the Disney Corporation
|
2021-12-04T08:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T06:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8750
|
Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?
|
Space debris is accumulating in earth's orbit, which is a problem because, "[due to its very high speed in orbit—even relatively small pieces can damage or destroy satellites in a collision.](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)"
As an example, Russia's November 2021 anti-satellite test created over a thousand pieces of debris, a cloud of which came close to the International Space Station, "forcing astronauts to take shelter for hours in a pair of spacecraft capable of returning them to Earth" [according to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/science/russia-anti-satellite-missile-test-debris.html).
Evasive manoeuvres can help, but [according to NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html), we can track discrete objects >5cm, but debris shields are effective only for objects <1cm. This means there are objects between 1 cm and 5cm that can severely damage human spacecraft, but cannot be tracked.
Space debris could kill humans in three ways. First, space debris could damage human spacecraft and kill one or more of its occupants. Second, re-entering space debris could kill humans on earth. Third, space debris could take out satellites linked to critical infrastructures and thereby cause death on earth via failure of such infrastructure. This question only focuses on the first risk — i.e. astronaut fatalities in space.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (AP, New York Times, etc.) report that space debris has killed at least one human by January 1, 2025.
Direct death in space (human-occupied spacecraft) will count towards positive resolution. Direct death on earth from re-entering debris (e.g. hitting someone on the head) will not count. If an astronaut dies on earth from space-debris injuries sustained in space, the question will resolve positively
|
2021-12-02T06:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T14:52:00Z
|
2025-01-05T05:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8618
|
Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?
|
Eli Lilly has developed an injected drug based on [GLP-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucagon-like_peptide-1) and [gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastric_inhibitory_polypeptide), called tirzepatide. Tirzepatide has [performed well](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519) in diabetes trials and appears poised to gain FDA approval for that condition. [Experts believe](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tirzepatide-achieved-superior-a1c-and-body-weight-reductions) it is probably more potent than semaglutide for the treatment of both type 2 diabetes and obesity, and Eli Lilly is currently conducting a [phase 3 weight loss trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04184622) in people with obesity and overweight that promises to yield results in April of 2022. Importantly, tirzepatide may provide much-needed competition for [semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide), potentially lowering drug costs.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve tirzepatide for the purpose of weight loss by January 1, 2025. This may be a successful development by Eli Lilly, or any other pharmaceutical company
|
2021-11-24T06:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2023-11-08T19:20:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8605
|
By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?
|
A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:
>
- "SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019."
- "We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon"
- "Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way."
- "China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged"
However, while "all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident," the IC "remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19":
>
- "Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus"
- "One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology."
- "Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information"
The declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may "alter our evaluation of hypotheses" and that, in the past, the "identification of animal sources has taken years."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolves as **Yes** if, at any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025, a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one explanation over the other will be considered for the purposes of this question.
For example, in the [most recent declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf), four organizations favor the natural origin hypothesis ("Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure"), one IC organization favors the lab origin hypothesis ("One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident"), and three organizations do not favor either hypothesis ("Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation"). So in this case, there appear to be five IC organizations that favor one explanation or the other — four favor the natural origin hypothesis, and one favors the lab origin hypothesis. Since in this case 1/5 does not constitute a majority (>50%) of U.S. IC organizations that express support for either hypothesis, this would resolve negatively.
Note that probabilistic statements do not have to be made to constitute an IC organization expressing support for one of two hypotheses. Vague verbiage — e.g. "moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 most likely resulted from" — would be sufficient to be counted as support for one hypothesis or the other so long as it is clear that one hypothesis is favored over the other.
This question will preferentially resolve on the basis of an updated declassified assessment by the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, this can also resolve on the basis of at least three credible media reports indicating that a majority of IC organizations favor one explanation over the other.
Fine Print: A statement by the IC or credible media reports must come out before 2025-01-01 for this to resolve positively — i.e., this will resolve on the basis of when such information/statement comes out publicly and not when the assessment itself was made.
Not all IC organizations have to express support for either hypothesis or even need to express a view at all. Rather, a simple majority of the IC organizations that *do express that they at least somewhat favor one hypothesis over the other* will be considered for resolution.
If an equal number of IC organizations favor either hypothesis (e.g. 4 favor the lab leak hypothesis and 4 favor the natural origin hypothesis), this resolves negatively.
The definitions of the lab leak and natural origin hypotheses used by the IC at time of resolution are what will be considered — e.g., if the IC considers "sampling" by members of a Hubei lab to fall under the lab leak hypothesis, then that is the definition Metaculus will use at time of resolution. However, if the definitions are unclear or ambiguous, then we will consider anything involving laboratory personnel who are doing research-related work of any kind to fall under the purview of the lab leak hypothesis, while all else falls under the natural origin hypothesis.
|
2021-11-22T05:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8589
|
Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: [Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty):
>"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union (and its successor state, the Russian Federation) signed in 1987. The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers of different ranges, excluding sea-launched missiles.
>[...] Amidst continuing growth of China's missile forces, US President Donald Trump announced on 20 October 2018 that he was withdrawing the US from the treaty due to supposed Russian non-compliance. The United States claimed another reason for the withdrawal was to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, including within the South China Sea, as China was not a signatory to the treaty. The US formally suspended the treaty on 1 February 2019, and Russia did so on the following day in response. The US formally withdrew from the treaty on 2 August 2019."
The likelihood of the US re-joining the INF Treaty has implications for nuclear risk both directly (as the treaty plausibly reduces nuclear risk) and as a proxy of geopolitical tensions and the health of diplomatic relations between Russia and the US.
***By 2024, will the US officially announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty or a successor treaty?***
This question resolves positively if, between the question opening and 2024, there are credible reports that US President has announced it (unconditionally) intends to either (1) re-join the INF Treaty or (2) sign a new arms control treaty which the President describes as the successor to the INF Treaty. In the latter case, ratification by 2024 isn't necessary (just signing), and, for simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess the President on whether this treaty really is a successor to the INF Treaty.
For positive resolution, it would not be sufficient for the US President to make a conditional announcement, such that as the US intends to re-join the INF Treaty _if_ Russia takes some particular action that Russia is not already taking.
Conversely, positive resolution does not require that the US actually re-join the INF Treaty (or sign a successor treaty) by 2024. Positive resolution also does not require that Russia announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty.
|
2021-11-25T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8588
|
By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?
|
The [United Nations state](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):
>"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states."
A country withdrawing from the NPT could perhaps increase the chance of nuclear proliferation, as well as perhaps serving as a signal of rising geopolitical tensions and nuclear risk.
In 2003, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT. No other state has withdrawn, though [Iran has recently threatened to do so](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/20/iran-to-quit-npt-if-its-nuclear-programme-referred-to-un-zarif).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if, by 2024, a country that joined the NPT before November 2021 actively withdraws from the treaty. The question will be resolved based on the data of [United Nations, Office for Disarmament Affairs](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/npt).
If a country that is party to the NPT ceases to exist or is replaced by one or more successor states (as happened with the Soviet Union and Russia, for example) and this results in the country no longer being part of the NPT, that will not be treated as active withdrawal for the purposes of this question, even if the successor state(s) is also not party to the NPT.
For the purposes of this question, North Korea will be treated as having already withdrawn, meaning that further actions by North Korea cannot themselves resolve this question positively
|
2021-11-25T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8553
|
Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic._
As far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:
* The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York have been the two largest donors in the nuclear risk space since 2012 (excluding governments)
* Since 2016, MacArthur and Carnegie have often each given out more than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year
* No other donor has given out than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year in any year since 2012 (again, excluding governments)
I base this in part on the Peace and Security Funding Map data[1], which stretches back to 2012.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if, by 31 March 2023, credible sources indicate that a donor that is not a government (and not one of the aforementioned Carnegie and MacArthur foundations) has in 2022 given out more than $10 million in grants that the donor sees as primarily relevant to nuclear weapons risks (including proliferation, disarmament, etc.). These sources could include a foundation's own grants database, the Peace and Security Funding Map data (with an additional check to ensure the grants are indeed related to nuclear risk[2]), or news sources. It is not necessary that all such sources show that this has happened (though they shouldn't explicit deny that it has happened), since some sources may simply fail to report things or be out of date.
**Footnote**
[1] To see the relevant data, go to https://peaceandsecurityindex.org, click "Start searching", select "Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues" from "SUBJECT AREA", and click "List". This will include government funding bodies, but these can be removed by unchecking "U.S. Federal Funders".
[2] Unfortunately, the Peace and Security Funding Map tracks under "Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues" many grants that really aren't about nuclear weapons issues but happen to use the term "nuclear". These include medical research grants that use the term "nuclear" in a totally different sense and biosecurity-related grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Therefore, if the only credible source that can be found that suggests this question should resolve positively if this source, I'll check whether it does indeed appear that the funder made >$10m in nuclear risk related grants, and I'll explain my reasoning publicly and invite criticism
|
2021-11-18T15:00:00Z
|
2022-03-21T21:59:00Z
|
2023-04-01T15:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8550
|
By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?
|
>"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities." ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))
The US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. "Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S." ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.
**See also:**
* [By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/)
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state Russia has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that Russia _would_ rejoin _if_ some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).
(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.
|
2021-11-11T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8549
|
Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?
|
[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):
>"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]
>Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024."
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve positively if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, any state formally joins [NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO). This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the new state being included in the member list on NATO's official website. If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and one or more of these join NATO, this will not count toward a positive resolution
|
2021-11-18T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2023-04-04T14:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8547
|
By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?
|
>"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities." ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))
The US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. "Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S." ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.
**See also:**
* [By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/)
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state that the US has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that the US _would_ rejoin _if_ some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the US President; Secretary of Defense; Secretary of State; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; or the head of one of the US's armed services. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).
(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.
|
2021-11-11T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8546
|
Will any state leave NATO before 2024?
|
[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):
>"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]
>Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. [...] Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024."
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if any state which was a [member of NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm) on January 1, 2021 leaves NATO before January 1, 2024, according to an official announcement by NATO. The exit must have taken effect before 2024; an announcement of their intention to leave or beginning the process of leaving is insufficient.
Fine Print: If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and none of those successor states are NATO members, that would resolve this question positively. In contrast, if a current NATO member fragments and at least one successor state remains a NATO member but at least one successor state is not a NATO member, that would _not_ count toward a positive resolution.
For simplicity, in the unlikely event that a state leaves NATO by 2024 but then also rejoins by 2024, this question will still resolve positively, since the state had left NATO by 2024.
|
2021-11-18T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8541
|
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular [a "by 2023" version of this same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)._
The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. On 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.
On 2020-09-13, [President-Elect Biden stated that](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-01/features/returning-progress-iran) if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." [Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-usa-zarif-idUKKBN27X340) the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions against Iran to the extent previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2024-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2024-01-01; a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.
**See also:**
* [Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)
* [Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/
|
2021-11-18T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2024-01-04T17:25:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8539
|
By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?
|
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that such a state has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the head of state; the head of the state's ministry of defense or equivalent; a similarly important and relevant officia; head of one of the state's military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the state's nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important diplomacy official from that state such as the state's ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).
(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.
|
2021-11-11T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8537
|
By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?
|
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that China has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the President of the People's Republic of China; the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China; the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress; head of one of the Chinese military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Chinese diplomacy official such as the Chinese Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).
(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.
|
2021-11-11T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2023-12-31T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8536
|
By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?
|
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that Russia has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).
(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.
|
2021-11-11T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2023-12-31T09:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8535
|
By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?
|
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if the next Nuclear Posture Review (released between the time of this question opening and 31-12-2023) includes clear affirmation that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans.
This question resolves ambiguously if a new Nuclear Posture Review is not publicly available by 2024 (but that seems very unlikely)
|
2021-11-11T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2022-10-27T14:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8534
|
Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
According to [a BBC article released on 19-10-2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58963654):
>"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster."
See also [a list of North Korean missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if a missile (ICBM) with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)
Note that:
* The missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice
* Either a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution
* For positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is _capable_ of hosting a nuclear warhead
**See also:**
*[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/
|
2021-11-11T15:00:00Z
|
2023-03-10T22:59:00Z
|
2022-03-24T11:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8523
|
Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?
|
[The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text), commonly referred to as the “Biden infrastructure plan,” is projected to cost between $1 and $2 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise.
The bill would create a new provision stating that digital asset “brokers” would need to issue IRS forms to certain users to obtain underpaid taxes. But the definition of broker would have included “any person who…is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.” This language would include not only third-party service providers analogous to Bank Secrecy Act-regulated entities, but also passive network developers, miners, and node operators who have no access to the required data to issue the tax forms to begin with.
Surprisingly, the nascent cryptocurrency policy community quickly and effectively [pushed back](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/07/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill-lobby-bitcoin/) against the provisions. A series of dueling amendments that would have expanded and pared back which groups should qualify as “brokers” resulted in a rather arcane [legislative discussion](https://decrypt.co/77841/biden-crypto-infrastructure-bill-amendments) over the distinctions between proof of work and proof of stake consensus mechanisms. Reports emanated that [high-ranking operatives](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ncr-v8A_bA) such as [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/25/yellen-crypto-bitcoin-defi/) were lobbying aggressively in favor of the expansive broker language. Despite several days of textual back-and-forth, the parties did not reach a compromise and it was [sent back to the House](https://reason.com/2021/08/10/how-a-sneaky-crypto-crackdown-plot-blew-up-the-infrastructure-bill/) where it has remained.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if, by January 20, 2025, miners, cryptocurrency developers, node operators, or validators (under proof-of-stake blockchains) are required to issue tax reports (such as 1099s) to the parties of the transactions they mediate. This will resolve positively if this requirement is effective under US law (though compliance or enforcement of this law need not actually occur to resolve positively). This may resolve positively even if this provision is not part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but it is part of some future legislation signed before January 20, 2025
|
2021-11-07T21:00:00Z
|
2025-01-19T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-21T16:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8499
|
Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?
|
[Libor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor), the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people [went to jail for manipulating Libor](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/understanding-libor-scandal), sometimes [so blatantly that it was hilarious](https://www.businessinsider.com/read-the-bloomberg-chats-that-got-a-former-rbs-libor-trader-paul-white-banned-for-life-2016-4?op=1). In recent years, financial authorities across the globe have been looking at ways to move away from Libor, and multiple solutions have been proposed.
In the US and other countries of the Americas, the overnight guaranteed funding rate (SOFR), is slowly replacing Libor. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good alternative. However, it’s significantly lower than Libor, as it is a rate for essentially risk-free loans secured by Treasury bonds, while Libor incorporates the credit risk of banks. Libor is now around three basis points (0.03%) above but historically it has been rather around 10 basis points (0.1%).
Contracts in SOFR are already incorporating extra costs to account for this difference, but there’s uncertainty in the market. ICE Benchmark Administration, the Libor rate provider, intended to phase out many Libor rates at the start of 2022, but [announced a delay in September](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor), for a "synthetic" extension on some GBP and JPY rates until January 1, 2023, while no US dollar Libor rate will be provided from July 1, 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by June 30, 2023, [ICE Benchmark Association](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor) announces any further delay in the phasing out of Libor rates. This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the delay involves a so-called “synthetic” methodology so that the rate is no longer representative of the underlying market
|
2021-11-21T05:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T10:00:00Z
|
2023-04-03T11:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8460
|
Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?
|
The US' national debt has [grown significantly](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/), particularly during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over a potential debt crisis have been voiced repeatedly, particularly during [reoccurring legislative debates to raise the debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling#Legislative_history). Despite this, the US has had [very low interest rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#Negative_real_interest_rates) since 2010, both encouraging the US to continue borrowing at cheap rates, and signalling that lenders consider the US government to be a reliable and safe borrower.
If this were to escalate into a criss, the US could be so far behind on its debt that the IMF would be called upon to forgive some of their debt. Notably, the IMF provided debt service [for Greece in 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis) and for [multiple Latin American Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis) in the 1980s.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the IMF executive board approves debt service relief on the US' debt any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025
|
2021-10-30T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-06T20:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15606
|
Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?
|
The [presidency](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/rop/chapter-4) of the [UN Security Council](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/) is determined by a rotational system, with each of the 15 member states serving as president for a one-month term. The [order of rotation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) follows the English alphabetical order of the member states' names. The presidency provides an opportunity for each country to showcase its diplomatic priorities and shape the council's agenda during its term. The [president's responsibilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council#:~:text=The%20presidency%20of%20the%20United,states%20of%20the%20council%20monthly.) include chairing meetings, controlling the docket and schedule, applying the rules, credentialing debates, and managing draft resolutions.
On April 1, 2023, [the Russian Federation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) is set to assume the presidency of the UN Security Council. This has raised [concerns](https://time.com/6262698/danger-russia-president-u-n-security-council/) due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, UN member states [approved a resolution calling on Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-china-united-nations-6965d19c953c2f6e45f483c1dfe04a7f). In March 2023, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://apnews.com/article/icc-putin-war-crimes-ukraine-9857eb68d827340394960eccf0589253) for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes. Ukrainian media outlets have [argued](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14015) that allowing Russia to assume the presidency would undermine the credibility of the UN Security Council and its mission to maintain global peace and security.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if, on April 1, 2023, Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council, with its representative serving as the President of the Council.
|
2023-03-24T16:30:00Z
|
2023-04-01T18:00:00Z
|
2023-04-01T15:07:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15577
|
[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?
|
The Federal Reserve (Fed) utilizes various tools and facilities, known as [Credit and Liquidity Programs](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm), to maintain financial stability, support economic growth, and ensure smooth functioning of credit markets. The Fed's [balance sheet](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/understanding-the-fed-balance-sheet.asp) expands when implementing these programs, which involve lending to financial institutions, purchasing assets, and providing emergency liquidity. In crisis situations, these programs are vital for restoring confidence in the financial system, preventing contagion, and mitigating systemic risks by offering temporary liquidity support and stabilizing credit conditions.
One mechanism involves extending credit through the Fed's liquidity facilities to temporarily support various market participants and institutions during financial stress, ensuring proper functioning of credit markets and fostering overall economic stability. After [Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in early March 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/17/why-silicon-valley-bank-collapsed-svb-fail), borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s backstop facilities [surged](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/banks-rush-to-backstop-liquidity-borrow-164-8-billion-from-fed#xj4y7vzkg), totaling $154 billion for the week of March 13 [across all liquidity facilities]( https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm). Previously, the highest levels in the past decade were $471 billion for the week of May 4, 2020, due to Covid, and the all-time high of $1.5 trillion for the week of December 8, 2008.
[Concerns are growing](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/18/business/why-people-are-worried-about-banks.html) about a potential US banking crisis and its possible [global extension](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/fears-global-banking-crisis-economy-roundup/), which would increase the need for liquidity support. The upcoming weeks are crucial for assessing this risk.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the total amount of credit extended through all liquidity facilities of the Fed exceeds $500 billion for any week before May 2023 (the week from April 24 being the last relevant week). This resolves on the basis of this [resolution source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm) under the ‘Credit Extended through Federal Reserve Liquidity Facilities’ chart, looking at the ‘All Liquidity facilities* (in millions of dollars)’ chart
|
2023-03-19T20:57:00Z
|
2023-04-30T11:00:00Z
|
2023-04-28T22:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15576
|
Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?
|
In 2022, Meta's virtual reality platform for the Meta Quest Headset, [Horizon Worlds](https://www.meta.com/gb/horizon-worlds/), faced difficulties [attracting and retaining users](https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/15/23405811/meta-horizon-worlds-losing-users-report). According to [internal documents obtained by the *Wall Streat Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-metaverse-horizon-worlds-zuckerberg-facebook-internal-documents-11665778961?mod=djemalertNEWS), the platform's monthly active users dropped from 300,000 in February 2022 to around 200,000. Meta then reduced its goal for the end of 2022 from 500,000 to 280,000 monthly active users. [The *Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-metaverse-horizon-worlds-zuckerberg-facebook-internal-documents-11665778961?mod=djemalertNEWS) also reported that only 9% of the 10,000 separate worlds in Horizon Worlds are visited by more than 50 users, and most users don't return after their first month on the platform. Meta is focusing on a multiyear effort to improve its metaverse plans and address the platform's issues.
Horizon World’s growth in users for 2023 is highly uncertain, with [Meta’s several rounds of layoffs](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/03/13/2023-layoff-tracker-meta-planning-another-large-round-of-cuts-this-week-report-says/?sh=4907f544760b), Meta’s [move towards AI](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/15/tech/meta-ai-investment-priority/index.html), and general [scepticism towards the metaverse](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/probing-reality-and-myth-in-the-metaverse).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of monthly active users for Meta's Horizon Worlds for any month of 2023 exceeds 500,000. The resolution sources for this question are [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362347/meta-horizon-worlds-users/) as well as official announcements by [Meta](https://investor.fb.com/home/default.aspx), though other reputable sources may be relied upon as well. Because of the anticipated lag of the publication of these data, this question resolves at the end of 2024 (unless data leading to a positive resolution is released prior).
If neither Statista nor Meta provide any data for any month of 2023 before 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. If they report data for at least one month of 2023 by the end of 2024, this question resolves either positively or negatively. If Horizon Worlds is discontinued, this question resolves as **No**
|
2023-03-21T14:44:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-26T03:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15574
|
[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?
|
Resolution Criteria: In March 2023, the [financial sector has experienced its worst rout since the Covid-19 pandemic](https://www.ft.com/content/608cd08d-97f9-486d-84f5-b01d57ec3471) began, with nearly half a trillion dollars wiped from the value of bank shares worldwide. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has caused financial stocks to plummet, with banks in the US, Europe, and Japan collectively losing $459bn in market value so far this month. The KBW Bank index in the US has suffered the heaviest losses, falling 18% in March, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 banks index has fallen 15% and Japan’s Topix banking sector index is down 9%.
A specific bank of interest is Credit Suisse, which is facing a crisis of confidence, with its share price at record lows and its [largest investor ruling out providing more capital](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/credit-suisse-shares-slide-after-saudi-backer-rules-out-further-assistance.html). Efforts to stabilise the bank, including a [SFr50bn ($54bn) emergency credit line from the Swiss central bank](https://www.ft.com/content/adb74b25-ee03-4bdd-8c7a-4dcc6c95fcac), have had limited success. As a result, [UBS is in talks to take over all or part of Credit Suisse](https://www.ft.com/content/17892f24-4ca0-417f-9093-289b019a0852), with the Swiss National Bank and regulator Finma orchestrating the negotiations in an attempt to shore up confidence in the country’s banking sector. The potential takeover comes after a series of scandals and crises, including the collapses of [Greensill Capital](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/28/credit-suisse-greensill-swiss-bank-finma) and [Archegos](https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/industries/financial-services/credit-suisse-and-the-archegos-collapse-lessons-in-risk-management-and-governance), which resulted in billions of dollars of losses. Other options under consideration include breaking up Credit Suisse and raising funds via a public offering of its ringfenced Swiss division, with the wealth and asset management units being sold to UBS or other bidders. A full merger would create one of the biggest global systemically important financial institutions in Europe, but some see it as too unwieldy to execute.
Overall, Credit Suisse is facing a variety of potential outcomes in the coming weeks, including collapse (i.e., bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations), full acquisition (e.g., acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares), partial acquisition (e.g., sale of one of its business units or divisions), break-up (split of Credit Suisse into at least two entities), bailout (i.e., government-backed provision of financial assistance), further central bank liquidity support (e.g., additional interventions from the Swiss National Bank).
***Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if Credit Suisse experiences any of the following scenarios based on reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) before May 1, 2023. For resolution of this question, official announcements of any of these scenarios suffice for positive resolution for as long as they are definite in their future implementation.
Scenarios:
1) Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations.
2) Full Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution.
3) Partial Acquisition: Sale of one or more of its business units or divisions to other financial institutions.
4) Break-up: Split of Credit Suisse into at least two separate entities.
5) Government Bailout: Government-backed provision of financial assistance.
6) Central Bank Support: Additional interventions from the Swiss National Bank.
7) International Support: Financial assistance from international institutions such as the IMF or central banks from other countries.
|
2023-03-18T13:30:00Z
|
2023-04-30T11:00:00Z
|
2023-03-19T19:11:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15573
|
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?
|
Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in the United States, particularly among Trump's supporters who view this as a politically motivated attack on the former president.
In the past, the United States has experienced incidents of civil unrest and large-scale rioting, such as the 1992 Los Angeles riots and the mass civil unrest in response to the killing of George Floyd in 2020. It is uncertain whether the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Trump could trigger a similar scale of civil unrest.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, "large-scale rioting" is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions are met:
1. At least 25 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
2. At least 5,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
These counts will be cumulative from question open date to resolution date. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.
Fine Print: For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 25. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.
Arrests must be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Arrests made for unrelated crimes during the civil unrest period will not be counted towards the 5,000.
|
2023-03-19T05:29:00Z
|
2023-04-15T19:00:00Z
|
2023-04-16T00:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15528
|
Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?
|
On 14 March 2023, [OpenAI](https://openai.com/) announced their latest model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) family, GPT-4. In the [product announcement post for GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4), OpenAI wrote:
> GPT-4 generally lacks knowledge of events that have occurred after the vast majority of its data cuts off (September 2021), and does not learn from its experience.
This introduces major limitations into many of the potential applications for GPT-4.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI public info describes GPT-4 as having training data through a date no more than one year in the past of the current version of GPT-4.
[fine-print]
For example, if on April 15 2023, the linked page describes training data as recent as June 30 2022, this resolves as YES, but if the page describes training data as recent as March 31 2022 (<1 year before the first release of GPT-4, but >1 year before the updated version with this new data), this does not resolve as **Yes**, and will resolve as **No** by default on the resolve date.
[/fine-print]
|
2023-03-19T16:25:00Z
|
2023-06-30T09:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T16:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15470
|
Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?
|
Chinese President Xi Jinping is [planning to visit Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-plans-russia-visit-soon-next-week-sources-2023-03-13/) in March for a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This visit comes as China has been [offering to broker peace in Ukraine](https://news.yahoo.com/china-presents-12-point-peace-022555790.html), an effort that has been met with skepticism in the West given China’s diplomatic support for Russia.
After his visit to Moscow, Xi Jinping [may hold talks with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-to-speak-with-zelensky-meet-next-week-with-putin-f34be6be). If he does, it would be the first time the Chinese President has spoken with Zelensky since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.
President Zelensky had previously [indicated intent to meet with President Xi](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64762219), saying:
> I really want to believe that China will not supply weapons to Russia.
Leaders in the West reacted positively to the possibility of talks between the Chinese and Ukrainian leaders. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan [said](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/white-house-hails-possibility-xi-093000074.html):
>We have been encouraging President Xi to reach out to President Zelensky because we believe that the PRC and President Xi himself should hear directly the Ukrainian perspective and not just the Russian perspective on this.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if credible media reports or official statements from the governments of China or Ukraine indicate President Xi and President Zelensky have spoken before April 1, 2023
|
2023-03-17T05:14:00Z
|
2023-04-01T03:00:00Z
|
2023-04-01T15:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15467
|
Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?
|
On March 14, 2023, [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced and released to the public via the ChatGPT webapp.
While it performed in the top 80 or even 90 percentile (compared to humans) on many tests like the bar exam, LSAT, SAT, most APs, and more, it struggled with medium and hard Leetcode questions.
The [technical report](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf) accompanying GPT-4's release mentions the potential for "capability jumps". The authors:
> encourage other developers of language models to […] be cognizant of, and plan for, capability jumps “in the wild”: Methods like fine-tuning and chain-of-thought prompting could lead to capability jumps in the same base model. This should be accounted for explicitly in internal safety testing procedures and evaluations. And a precautionary principle should be applied: above a safety critical threshold, assurance of sufficient safety is required.
This question aims to evaluate the likelihood of GPT-4 experiencing a capability jump in solving Leetcode questions before 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before the end of 2023, there are credible reports demonstrating that GPT-4 can correctly answer:
1. At least 8 out of 10 randomly chosen medium Leetcode questions, or
2. At least 4 out of 10 randomly chosen hard Leetcode questions
The solution must be achieved on the first attempt, and the prompt cannot provide any answers to the chosen questions. If the credibility of a report is in question, the Metaculus team will independently verify the method.
The question also resolves as **Yes** if the Metaculus team can achieve either of the above criteria after reviewing the comments and spending 10 minutes searching for a suitable prompting method.
This question resolves **Ambiguously** if any of the following occur:
- GPT-4 becomes inaccessible to Metaculus staff before resolving positively or negatively, and access is still unavailable as of the resolve date.
- GPT-4's knowledge cutoff shifts significantly, casting doubt on the training set's integrity due to potential contamination with relevant Leetcode question answers
|
2023-03-16T20:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T08:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15466
|
Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?
|
On March 14, 2023, GPT-4 was [announced](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and released to the public via the ChatGPT webapp.
Earlier the same year, Microsoft [integrated GPT-4](https://blogs.bing.com/search/march_2023/Confirmed-the-new-Bing-runs-on-OpenAI%E2%80%99s-GPT-4) into Bing, using it to back a chatbot. After [reports](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jtoPawEhLNXNxvgTT/bing-chat-is-blatantly-aggressively-misaligned) of Bing Chat showing distinctly dark-triadic traits during some of its conversations emerged, Microsoft limited interactions with the bot to [five questions per session](https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/17/23604906/microsoft-bing-ai-chat-limits-conversations).
Here we ask whether something similar will happen with the GPT-4-backed version of ChatGPT.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if restrictions on the number of rounds of dialog with the GPT-4-backed version of ChatGPT, or restrictions content of user inputs to the bot, are put in place before the end of May 2023 as a measure to deal with undesirable behavior from the model. It also resolves as **Yes** if the bot is taken down entirely for any period of time, for the same reason.
Fine Print: Whether restrictions/removal were measures to deal with undesirable model behavior will be decided by Metaculus staff.
|
2023-03-15T20:00:00Z
|
2023-05-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-06-01T16:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15422
|
Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?
|
The [KBW Nasdaq Bank Index](https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/index/overview/bkx) is a benchmark index that tracks the performance of leading banks and financial institutions in the United States. It includes 24 stocks of large U.S. national money center banks, regional banks, and thrift institutions that are publicly traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Some of the banks included in the index are JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. The index is widely used as a benchmark for the banking sector and is considered a key indicator of the health and performance of the U.S. banking industry. At the beginning of the year, the index stood at $101.46 reaching a 2023-high of $115.10 in early February. However, since the beginning of March, the price has crashed from [$109.33 on March 1 to $92.22 on March 10](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BKX:INDEXNASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiuv8msh9L9AhXUJzQIHQYeCBsQ3ecFegQILBAY&window=YTD) on the basis of sector-wide concern over financial contagion from recent bank collapses:
In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was [shut down by US banking regulators](https://www.ft.com/content/6943e05b-6b0d-4f67-9a35-9664fb456504)
> Silicon Valley Bank was shuttered by US regulators on Friday after customers raced to withdraw $42bn — a quarter of its total deposits — in one day and a failed effort to raise new capital called into question the future of the tech-focused lender. With about $209bn in assets, SVB has become the second-largest bank failure in US history, after the 2008 collapse of Washington Mutual, and marks a swift fall from grace for a lender that was valued at more than $44bn less than 18 months ago.
This comes a few days after crypto bank Silvergate [shut down](https://www.ft.com/content/cf88319f-641a-48c6-9925-0d9e6a201466):
> Silvergate, the San Diego-based regional lender that transformed itself into a go-to bank for the crypto industry, plans to wind down operations in the face of turmoil in digital currency markets. Citing “recent industry and regulatory developments”, Silvergate on Wednesday announced that a “voluntary liquidation of the bank is the best path forward”. The disclosure sent its stock down more than 30 per cent in after-hours trading to $3 a share. In the past few years Silvergate had developed into the largest cryptocurrency bank in the US, attracting as much as $14bn in customer deposits and reaching a stock price of more than $200 in late 2021.
This raises the fears of more [widespread contagion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/el-erian-says-us-banking-system-can-weather-svb-contagion-risk) risk in the US banking sector, though a 2008-like collapse is seen as unlikely. As the [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-failure-financial-industry/) reports:
> With $209 billion in assets, the [SVB] was just one-eighteenth the size of JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest. Still, Wall Street was rattled by SVB’s abrupt end, the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history, after Washington Mutual in 2008.
> Share prices of the industry’s five largest players — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs — fell heavily in SVB’s final days. BofA was down nearly 12 percent in the past five trading sessions.
The index [closed at $101.47](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/BKX/historical-prices) on January 3, 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if the KWB Nasdaq Bank Index records at least a 33% price drop to below $68 before May 1, 2023.
This question resolve as **No** if the KWB Nasdaq Bank Index does not record a price drop to below $68 for any day before May 1, 2023.
Resolution will be based on [official data](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/BKX/historical-prices). Specifically, the question resolves as **Yes** if the ‘Low’ for any given day is below $68 before May 1, 2023
|
2023-03-11T19:00:00Z
|
2023-04-28T11:00:00Z
|
2023-04-28T19:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15421
|
Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?
|
In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, making it the largest failure of a bank [since 2008](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/):
> California banking regulators closed the bank, which did business as Silicon Valley Bank, on Friday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver for later disposition of its assets.
Silicon Valley Bank was one of the most prominent banks in Silicon Valley, having many start-ups and venture capitalists as its [clients](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/10/tech/silicon-valley-bank-tech-panic/index.html). As such, there has been [speculation about the size of the negative impact](https://www.pymnts.com/digital-first-banking/2023/silicon-valley-bank-closure-impacts-hundreds-of-startups-and-vcs/) of the SVB closure on start-ups and venture capitalists.
> The closure of Silicon Valley Bank has impacted startups and venture capital firms. Hundreds of such firms did their banking and kept billions of dollars with the bank, which went under the receivership of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Friday (March 10)
> The bank’s collapse could have other long-lasting effects. One startup said it is concerned about future efforts to raise funds because so many investors banked at Silicon Valley Bank, while another said tech firms might not be able to find another bank that is as willing as Silicon Valley Bank was to work with them when they ran into tough times, the report said.
One further concern is that of contagion, the worry that the collapse of a single bank spreads financial distress to other banks systemwide. While large-scale contagion fears are at the moment not seen as [very likely](https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1008696/svb-sparks-crash-in-banking-stocks-but-are-contagion-fears-overdone-1008696.html), there is significantly more concern about contagion risks for similar banks operating in Silicon Valley.
One of the potential banks that faces especially high risks is [First Republic Bank](https://fortune.com/company/first-republic-bank/). As a Kruze Consulting [report](https://kruzeconsulting.com/best-business-banks/) put it: “For the early-stage, high growth companies, First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank, are the biggest players". As [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/svb-collapse-could-lead-contagion-221110997.html) reports, banks like First Republic are already facing pressure:
> Regional banks are facing pressure from SVB’s blow-up for two main reasons. First, venture capitalists and start-ups that rely on these banks are worried. CNBC reported Friday that one venture capitalist said it was like someone shouted “fire in a crowded theater where there is no fire,” leading many businesses and tech investors to ask for their money back from banks just to be safe.
> There is already some evidence of contagion to regional banks as a result of this fear. Trading in multiple regional banks stocks including PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp, and First Republic Bank was halted Friday amid aggressive selling from investors.
First Republic has aimed to [calm investors](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/first-republic-western-alliance-calm-contagion-worries-svb-meltdown-2023-03-10/) by claiming that their “liquidity and deposits remained strong” and that it had a “[very well diversified](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-11/first-republic-regional-peers-try-to-boost-confidence-after-svb?srnd=markets-vp#xj4y7vzkg) deposit base”. However, there remains a serious risk of contagion to regional banks like First Republic Bank.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, First Republic Bank or any of its subsidiaries have been placed under FDIC receivership OR First Republic Bank has signed a deal to be purchased by another organization, which has been characterized as a bail out, a rescue, or in response to liquidity trouble by credible sources. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court.
Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available on or before February 1, 2024
|
2023-03-11T22:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2023-05-01T05:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15420
|
Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?
|
USD Coin (USDC) is a stablecoin cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value of $1 USD. It is issued by [CENTRE](https://www.centre.io/#:~:text=An%20Independent%2C,largest%20stablecoin%20on%20the%20market.), a joint venture between Coinbase and Circle, and is backed by U.S. dollar-denominated assets held at regulated and audited U.S. financial institutions. USDC is commonly used in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and by traders due to its relative stability compared to other digital assets.
After the [failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)](https://www.vox.com/technology/23634433/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-silvergate-first-republic-fdic) and a report that Circle had a [$3.3 billion exposure to SVB](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/binance-tether-say-no-svb-exposure-while-circle-stays-mum), USDC [de-pegged](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/) on March 11, trading at as low as $0.88 USDC/USD, significantly below its 1:1 valuation target. [Coinbase and Binance](https://decrypt.co/123208/coinbase-binance-suspend-usdc-conversions-as-dollar-peg-wobbles) suspended USDC conversions, while Robinhood also reportedly [suspended USDC trading and deposits](https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634455895030505473).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if USDC/USD trades at 0.999 USD or above before May 1, 2023.
This question will resolve as **No** if USDC/USD does not trade at 0.999 USD or above before May 1, 2023 or if USDC is delisted from the resolution source.
The resolution source is [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/). If Coinmarketcap is no longer online, other [resolution sources](https://crypto.com/price/usd-coin) may be used
|
2023-03-11T14:30:00Z
|
2023-04-30T11:00:00Z
|
2023-03-13T14:27:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15414
|
Will Silicon Valley Bank file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?
|
[Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)](https://www.svb.com/) is a financial institution that was founded in 1983 in Santa Clara, California. Initially, the bank focused on providing banking services to the technology and life sciences industries in the Silicon Valley region. Over the years, SVB has grown to become a global financial services company that provides a range of banking and financing solutions to technology, life sciences, healthcare, and venture capital industries.
In March 2023, news that SVB's parent company had [sold $21 billion of securities from its portfolio](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/10/why-svb-was-hit-by-a-bank-run-and-where-it-could-lead-quicktake/b51d556a-bf55-11ed-9350-7c5fccd598ad_story.html) and would be seeking to [raise new capital](https://www.axios.com/2023/03/09/silicon-valley-bank-launches-new-share-sale) caused some prominent venture capital firms to suggest that their companies withdraw assets and prompted a bank run.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Silicon Valley Bank or any of its subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy or a similar filing of insolvency in any jurisdiction OR Silicon Valley Bank has signed a deal to be purchased by another organization, which has been characterized as a bail out, a rescue, or in response to liquidity trouble by credible sources. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court.
Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available on or before February 1, 2024
|
2023-03-10T16:30:00Z
|
2023-12-31T19:00:00Z
|
2023-03-10T16:46:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15412
|
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?
|
[Melitopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melitopol) is a city in the [Zaporizhzhia Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Oblast) in Ukraine. It has a population of nearly 150,000 and is located in southeastern Ukraine, near the [Sea of Azov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Azov). It was captured by Russia in the first month of the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Oblast).
<img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png" alt="map of cities in Ukraine" />
*<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png">Lencer</a>, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the city council building in Melitopol ([46°50'50.7"N 35°22'55.0"E](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Melitopol+City+Council/@46.847410,35.381946,19z/data=!4m6!3m5!1s0x40c2ae04d76bc5e3:0xc1980e3fa9b2bb4b!8m2!3d46.8473864!4d35.3820222!16s%2Fg%2F1td23yr9)) as **not** under either "assessed Russian advance" or "assessed Russian control". If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for assessed territory then Metaculus will make a determination according to information provided by ISW or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
If at the time of resolution the Melitopol city council building no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will resolve based on control of the area where the building was located on March 9, 2023
|
2023-03-15T08:37:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15405
|
Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?
|
The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.
The primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.
The next FOMC meeting will be [March 21-22](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
FOMC statements [significantly affect market volatility](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2013/0913rosa.pdf). For example, early in March 2023, observers expected the FOMC to [raise interest rates by 0.25 points](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/03/04/heres-the-schedule-of-the-feds-upcoming-meetings-and-what-to-expect/?sh=71bd26585573). Following Mr. Powell's [March 7 remarks before the US Senate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20230307a.htm), markets began to price in a [0.5 point increase](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/business/economy/fed-powell-interest-rates.html), with the [S&P 500 falling 1.5%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-06/asia-stocks-set-for-cautious-open-as-us-gains-fade-markets-wrap?leadSource=uverify%20wall)
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if the S&P 500 Index increases or decreases by more than 2% on either March 21 or March 22, 2023.
The 2% change may be on either of the days (March 21 or March 22). A 2% cumulative change over the two-day period will not be sufficient for positive resolution.
This question will resolve on the basis of the following [Yahoo Finance data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). For each of the two days, the 'Open' and the 'Close' are taken as the relevant inputs to calculate price changes.
*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*
Fine Print: If the FOMC does not meet as scheduled on March 21-22, 2023, then this question will resolve ambiguously.
|
2023-03-10T16:00:00Z
|
2023-03-22T21:00:00Z
|
2023-03-22T20:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15259
|
Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?
|
*This question is a successor to a [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13499/6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/) [set](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13538/60-minute-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/). The background has been adapted and updated from this original version.*
---
Twitter is a social media platform that allows users to post messages (or ‘tweets’). The website has more than [300 million daily active users]( https://www.businessofapps.com/data/twitter-statistics/) in early 2023, amassing a total of over [350,000 tweets per minute](https://www.dsayce.com/social-media/tweets-day/). On October 27th, 2022, Twitter was [bought by Elon Musk](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, for a total of $44 billion.
Since Musk’s buyout, there have been massive layoffs across most parts of the company, including its [engineering department](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). For example, in November 2022, Twitter [slashed nearly half of its workforce](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/04/twitter-layoffs-elon-musk-revenue-drop), with further layoffs occurring [in late December 2022](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/tech/twitter-layoffs-continue/index.html).
These layoffs have raised the worry that Twitter may not be able to continuously offer its services and avoid prolonged outages. There are daily reports of minor Twitter outages submitted by users [every day](https://downdetector.com/status/twitter/), but given the size of Twitter and its user base, these do not constitute global prolonged outages. However, the risk of a global outage of significant duration remains. According to a [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) article from Nov 11, 2022: “In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.” That same article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if both Condition 1 and Condition 2 occur before July 1, 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.
* Condition 1: There are [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that a global Twitter outage has occurred.
* Condition 2: For a period of more than 60 minutes during the reported outage, no tweets have been posted, as measured by a custom search for the word "the" encompassing the time of the outage. This will be ascertained through the [advanced search operators](https://github.com/igorbrigadir/twitter-advanced-search/) that allow for the searching of any tweets during a specific time. For example [here's a search query](https://twitter.com/search?q=the%20since%3A2022-12-31_23%3A59%3A59_UTC%20%20until%3A2023-01-01_00%3A01%3A00_UTC&src=typed_query&f=live) for the first minute of 2023 in [Coordinated Universal Time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time) (UTC).
Fine Print: * Twitter collapsing or shutting down so that Twitter search is unavailable and does not return in a timely manner is sufficient to resolve as **Yes**. If this occurs Metaculus may use its judgement to make a determination according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
* If Twitter is still operational but removes the necessary search functionality, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
|
2023-02-27T18:03:00Z
|
2023-07-01T11:00:00Z
|
2023-07-03T15:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15258
|
Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?
|
[Transnistria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) is a separatist-controlled region of Moldova, controlled by a pro-Russian government since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since the start of the Ukraine War, there have been numerous reports of a potential invasion of the region. These include possible original Russian invasion plans in early 2022, and [several attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Transnistria_attacks) between April and May 2022.
In recent days, multiple sources warned regarding possible escalations in Transnistria. The Russian Ministry of Defense has [reported](https://lenta-ru.translate.goog/news/2023/02/23/provokaciya/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp) on the potential of "Ukrainian troops invading Transnistria while wearing Russian uniforms." Meanwhile, Moldova has [warned](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/09/moldova-accuses-russia-of-destabilization-attempts-a801910) about possible Russian destabilizing actions in the region.
On the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reasons for Russia, Ukraine, or Moldova, or forces acting on their behalf, to initiate major conflict in Transnistria could range from securing the breakaway territory for themselves, denying the same to their enemy, or, in particular, capturing the [Cobasna ammunition depot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot), said to house a large amount of ammunition that both Russia or Ukraine could use in their war efforts, or alternatively, destroying it to deny its use to the respective other.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes**, if on or before June 30, 2023, [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of media outlets report of a significant conflict in Transnistria. To resolve as **Yes**, any one of the following events qualifies as a "major" conflict:
* An invasion of Transnistria by uniformed ground forces of any other state (including Moldova).
* A media report report of a significant number of non-uniformed or clandestine soldiers actively engaging in armed action in Transnistria, provided that credible media reports them as non-Transnistrians.
* Aerial or missile attacks on Transnistria causing at least one death or major infrastructure damage (such as the destruction of the Cobasna ammunition depot), provided that credible media reports these attacks as deliberate and originating outside of Transnistria.
* Unauthorized (by Transnistria) actions attributed to external states that result in a change of Transnistria's government, or a change in its legal or occupational status as a state, whether or not such actions involved physical violence or destruction (e.g. the 2014 Crimea takeover by Russia.)
If no major conflict in Transnistria, meeting the above criteria, takes place before July 2023, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: Exceptions:
* In case of an invasion or armed action of uniformed or non-uniformed soldiers, such action must be reported to either last for at least 72 consecutive hours, or achieve another significant objective by this time, such as government takeover, physical occupation of a city or other strategic territory, or major infrastructure damage. An armed action lasting for a shorter amount of time and not reported to achieve any similar objectives, will not resolve this question as **Yes**.
* Conflict not progressing beyond Transnistria's borders (e.g. short-range cross-border shelling) will not resolve this question as **Yes**.
* Purely internal conflicts (protest, revolts, rebellions, etc.) with no reported involvement by external states (including Moldova), or minor provocations not resulting in casualties or significant infrastructure damage (such as the 2022 Transnistria attacks) will not resolve this question as **Yes**.
* A change in Transnistria's legal status or de-facto control, done via purely diplomatic means and not formally contested by the acting government of Transnistria (such as by a treaty as part of concluding or freezing the Ukraine war), will not resolve this question as **Yes**.
* Media reports for events 2 and 3 are sufficient even if there is some uncertainty in the language used. For example if a significant number of clandestine soldiers are "alleged" or "suspected" to be involved that will be sufficient. Metaculus will make a determination according to their judgement as to whether the specified criteria have been met.
In case of a different type of conflict in Transnistria, Metaculus staff reserves the right to determine if it constitutes a "major conflict", as best relating to the given examples.
|
2023-02-26T10:54:00Z
|
2023-07-01T07:00:00Z
|
2023-07-06T13:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15254
|
Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?
|
The African National Congress (ANC) is a political party in South Africa that has been in power since the country's first democratic elections in [1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_African_National_Congress). The party was founded in 1912 and played a key role in the fight against apartheid, South Africa's former system of racial segregation.
South Africa has a parliamentary system of government, with a president as head of state and a prime minister as head of government. The country's legislature is known as the National Assembly, and members of parliament are elected every five years through a proportional representation system.
The next South African general election is scheduled to be held in [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election), which will elect the National Assembly, as well as provincial legislatures.
In recent years, the ANC has faced [significant challenges](https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2022/07/05/corruption-african-national-congress-south-africa-243297), including allegations of corruption and mismanagement, as well as growing dissatisfaction among the population over the slow pace of progress in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, unemployment and inequality. The [energy crisis](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/25/south-africa-energy-crisis-corruption-anc/) that has resulted in increasingly frequent and severe national blackouts since 2007 – caused by mismanagement, neglect and widespread corruption at the state-run power utility, Eskom – has thrown a stark spotlight on the ANC’s failures as a governing party. As a result, it has seen declining levels of support in many areas of the country, even in areas traditionally considered ANC strongholds.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the ANC receives more than 50% of the votes. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.
This question resolves on the basis of the official results of the 2024 general election based on the [Electoral Commission of South Africa](https://www.elections.org.za/pw/) and its [election results page](https://results.elections.org.za/home/).
If the resolution source does not post the results, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the election may instead be used to determine the vote share of the ANC.
If the election is held prior to 2024 or postponed into 2025 (or later), or if the election is not held at all, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**
|
2023-02-26T10:42:00Z
|
2024-04-30T10:00:00Z
|
2024-06-01T12:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15253
|
Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: The [New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by the United States and Russia in 2010. The treaty imposes [limits](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) on the number of deployed strategic nuclear arms, though it [does not](https://theatlasnews.co/conflict/2023/02/21/russia-officially-suspends-new-start-treaty/) limit the number of operationally inactive warheads. See below for the treaty limits and the [September 2022 data](https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty-aggregate-numbers-of-strategic-offensive-arms-3/) on actual deployments:
| Type | Limit | US | Russia |
|--------------------------------------|-------|-----|--------|
| Deployed missiles and bombers | 700 | 659 | 540 |
| Deployed warheads (RVs and bombers) | 1,550 | 1420 | 1549 |
| Deployed and non-deployed launchers (missile tubes and bombers) | 800 | 800 | 759 |
The treaty also includes [verification and transparency measures](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) to ensure compliance with its terms. The New START treaty replaced the START treaty, which had expired in 2009. The treaty was extended in 2021 for five years by the United States and Russia, maintaining its limits on nuclear arms.
In early February 2023, the U.S. State Department [reported](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-russia-has-violated-nuclear-arms-treaty-by-blocking-inspections-11675183584) that Russia was in "noncompliance" with the treaty because it refused to allow on-site inspections and had cancelled a meeting of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, a body the treaty established to address such concerns.
On February 21, 2023, Vladimir Putin [announced](https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-suspends-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty-with-u-s-6498b44) in his State of the Nation address that Russia was [suspending its participation in the treaty](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/21/what-is-new-start-treaty/), suggesting that it will not permit inspections or meet with U.S. representatives via the Bilateral Consultative Commission. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that [Russia will continue to honor the New START limits](https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1628082666498142213?cxt=HHwWisC9meWjjpgtAAAA).
***Will the US claim Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?***
This question resolves as "Yes" if, before 2025, reputable sources report that US officials have concluded Russia has exceeded New START's limits.
The question will also resolve as "Yes" if Russia itself announces it will no longer abide by New START limits.
|
2023-02-27T17:09:00Z
|
2024-12-31T19:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15249
|
On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)
* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)
----
As of February 21, 2023, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have both declared their campaigns for the [Republican Nomination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries) for the 2024 US Presidential Election. [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Nationwide_polling) shows Trump as the leading candidate among Republican voters, ahead of the second-place candidate Ron DeSantis (who has not openly declared his interest in campaigning). Prediction market aggregator [ElectionBettingOdds](https://electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html) shows both Trump and DeSantis as the most likely winners of the Republican Nomination.
[The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/trump-arsonist-turns-his-own-party/672956/) reported in February 2023:
>[...] [The survey](https://www.thebulwark.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Republican_Presidential_Primary_Toplines.pdf) found that a large majority of Republicans are ready to move on from Trump—but at the same time, more than a quarter of likely Republican voters are ready to follow Trump to a third-party bid. Two days after the poll results were released, Trump was asked in an interview whether, if he lost the nomination, he would support the GOP nominee. Trump [answered](https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-refuses-to-commit-to-backing-the-republican-nominee-in-2024/), “It would have to depend on who the nominee was.” Translation: no.
The 2024 US Presidential Election is [currently scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on the date of the US Presidential Election in 2024, both of these conditions are true:
* Donald Trump is actively campaigning for the office of US President in 2024,
* and Trump is not listed as either the nominee of the Republican (or Democratic) party in 26 or more US states.
For this question, Trump may not be nominated by the Republican or Democratic party for any reason: he may start his own party, join another third-party, campaign as an independent, or he may claim to be a Republican but not recieve the party's endorsement, asking voters to write him in.
If Trump is not campaigning for the election by election day, or if he recieves the Republican (or Democratic) nomination on election day, this question will resolve as **No**.
The determination of whether Trump is considered to be "actively campaigning" will be at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.
Fine Print: In this question, the [District of Columbia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.) is included as a US State.
The date of the US Presidential Election will be the date when polls are open for in-person voting in 26 or more US States (currently scheduled for November 5, 2024). If there is no such date occurring between October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
|
2023-02-23T19:54:00Z
|
2024-11-05T06:00:00Z
|
2024-11-06T20:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15248
|
Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?
|
Resolution Criteria: On February 6th, Google announced the launch of [Bard](https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/), their AI powered search tool, set to compete with ChatGPT and a GPT-enabled Bing search.
While the tool was demo-ed during their launch announcement, it's still not available. Google said they would be "...opening it up to trusted testers ahead of making it more widely available to the public in the coming weeks."
There have been [reports](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/google-ceo-some-of-companys-top-products-were-not-first-to-market.html) that all Google employees are participating in internal testing in advance of it's open release.
***Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th?***
This question will resolve **Yes** if the general public has access to Bard on March 5th, as confirmed via public statements from Google. If Google chooses to release the feature to a small subset of users, this question will resolve yes if more than 5 Metaculus employees (on our team of 25) report that they have access to Bard on March 5th.
*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*
[fine-print]
If Bard becomes available the general public before March 5th, this question will resolve immediately.
This question only deals with the release of Bard. If Bard is released but then access is removed or retracted, that will not affect the resolution of this question.
[/fine-print]
|
2023-02-24T20:45:00Z
|
2023-03-03T19:00:00Z
|
2023-03-05T23:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15247
|
Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?
|
Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system, covering an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent.
During the summer in the southern hemisphere, sea ice is at a minimum. In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64649596), breaking the previous record set just a year earlier. As of February 20th, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extends 1.812 million square kilometers, the fewest ever measured.
Typically, sea ice levels begin to recover in late February or early March.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the data reported in [the Antarctic version of this graph](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) from the National Snow & Ice Data Center.
The question resolves as "Yes" if the measured sea ice for March 7, 2023 extends more than the 2.145 million square kilometers recorded on March 7, 2022. Otherwise, the question resolves as "No".
*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.
|
2023-02-24T20:41:00Z
|
2023-03-02T19:00:00Z
|
2023-03-08T16:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15220
|
Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?
|
Arctic sea ice extent refers to the amount of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The extent of Arctic sea ice varies seasonally, reaching a minimum in late summer and a maximum in late winter. The long-term trend for Arctic sea ice extent has been a decrease, with a record low being reached in 2012, when the sea ice extent shrank to 3.39 million square kilometers. Since then, the Arctic sea ice extent has continued to decline, although there have been some years with higher levels than others.
This decline has important implications for the climate overall, in part because of feedback mechanisms like the ice-albedo and methane feedback mechanisms.
Ice-Albedo feedback mechanism, according to a 2017 [Scientific Reports paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-08467-z) is “a key aspect of global climate change. In the polar region, a decrease of snow and ice area results in a decrease of surface albedo, and the intensified solar heating further decreases the snow and ice area”.
Additionally, the methane release feedback mechanism has been called a central climate tipping point by [The Royal Society](https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-19/):
> [S]ubstantial warming could destabilise methane (a greenhouse gas) trapped in ocean sediments and permafrost, potentially leading to a rapid release of a large amount of methane. If such a rapid release occurred, then major, fast climate changes would ensue. Such high-risk changes are considered unlikely in this century, but are by definition hard to predict. Scientists are therefore continuing to study the possibility of exceeding such tipping points, beyond which we risk large and abrupt changes.
These mechanisms (as well as further consideration) make monitoring of the arctic ice sheet extent important. According to the [National Snow & Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/), the arctic sea ice extent throughout January 2023 has been below the record minimum year of 2012 for every day. This raises the possibility that 2023 may not just be a new minimum (aggregated over the year) but may instead indicate a drastic shift in furthering the decline of the arctic sea ice extent.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the arctic sea ice extent for 2023 is lower than in 2012 for each day of the year.
This question will resolve as **No** if the arctic sea ice extent for 2023 is not lower than in 2012 for each day of the year.
The relevant resolution source is the ‘All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily) Excel file [here]( https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/), specifically the sheet 'NH-Daily-Extent' in the file currently titled “Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx”. This file or the one uploaded in its place (with a potentially updated file name) will be used.
For resolution, the 2012 value for each individual day is subtracted from the 2023 value. A negative result indicates that levels in 2023 were lower than in 2012. Because 2012 had 366 days (compared to 2023’s 365), the February 29, 2012 date will be removed from this analysis
|
2023-03-03T21:49:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2023-06-08T12:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15148
|
Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?
|
On January 12, 2023, Virgin Galactic [reported](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1706946/000119312523007268/d438974dex991.htm) that it remains "on track" to begin commercial service in the second quarter of 2023 following two previous delays in 2021 ([original announcement](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2021/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-First-Commercial-Research-Mission/)) and [2022](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2022/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Second-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-And-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx). On February 15, 2023, the company successfully completed a test flight of its carrier aircraft, the VMS Eve mothership, which paves the way for the start of commercial operations, [according to](https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/commercial-space/virgin-galactic-returns-upgraded-carrier-aircraft-flight) Aviation Week. (See also: Virgin Galactic's [3rd Quarter 2022 Earnings Call](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4552931-virgin-galactic-holdings-inc-spce-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcript) and [CNBC: Virgin Galactic again delays space tourism flights, to second quarter 2023](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/04/virgin-galactic-again-delays-space-tourism-flights-to-second-quarter-2023.html).)
Virgin Galactic's mission is "to connect people across the globe to the love, wonder and awe created by space travel." In December 2018, it [flew](https://www.geekwire.com/2018/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-space/) its spaceship, the VSS Unity, to space for the first time. In February 2019, it flew its [second spaceflight](https://www.space.com/virgin-galactic-powered-flight-february-2019.html) with VSS Unity, flying a test passenger for the first time. After relocating its operations to [Spaceport America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaceport_America) in New Mexico, Virgin Galactic flew two additional spaceflights, in [May of 2021](https://www.abqjournal.com/2393160/lift-off-virgin-galactic-spaceship-is-in-the-air.html) with NASA research experiments and in [July of 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic_Unity_22) with four passengers including Sir Richard Branson. (See Reuters: [Billionaire Branson soars to space aboard Virgin Galactic flight](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/virgin-galactics-branson-ready-space-launch-aboard-rocket-plane-2021-07-11/))
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** upon Virgin Galactic completing a successful commercial flight with its spaceship, based on media reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) For purposes of this question, a *successful commercial flight* must contain all of these elements:
1. It is a revenue-generating flight.
2. There is at least one human passenger.
3. Every passenger returns safely and uninjured from the trip.
4. The spaceship is reported to have reached an altitude of at least [80 kilometers or 50 miles above sea level](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/09/where-space-begins-bezos-blue-origin-vs-bransons-virgin-galactic.html).
5. The spaceship is not reported to have incurred significant damage.
This question will resolve as **No** if no such commercial flight is reported to have taken place before July 1, 2023
|
2023-02-20T08:32:00Z
|
2023-06-29T16:00:00Z
|
2023-06-29T15:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15143
|
Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?
|
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, with a population of [over 200 million people](https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/NG). The country has a rich recent democratic history, having held [several elections](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/resources/173303-calendar-elections-nigeria-since-1999.html?tztc=1) since the return to civilian rule in 1999.
Due to the two-term limit set by the Nigerian constitution, current President Muhammadu Buhari cannot run for re-election. Nigerian voters will elect a new president to take his place.
Currently Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, and Peter Obi are leading the race, with Obi waging an upstart campaign focused on the interests of Nigerian youth.
According to the [Nigerian Constitution](http://www.nigeria-law.org/ConstitutionOfTheFederalRepublicOfNigeria.htm#FederalExecutive), to be elected in a presidential election with more than two candidates, a candidate must have:
"*(a) ...the highest number of votes cast at the election;*
*and*
*(b) ...not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja."*
Otherwise, the election will go to a [run-off election](https://inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/FAQ-Inner.pdf) one week later.
A Nigerian Presidential election has never gone to a run-off before. However, there is [a chance](https://guardian.ng/news/runoff-likely-in-presidential-elections-says-new-survey/) that it may do so in 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a run-off election is scheduled. This will resolve based on public reports from the [Independent National Electoral Commission](https://inecnigeria.org/) of Nigeria confirming that they have scheduled a run-off election.
This question will resolve as **No** otherwise.
*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*
Fine Print: In the absence of a clear directive from the INEC, admins will use credible media reports.
Some [sources](https://www.nytimes.com/article/nigeria-election.html) claim that to avoid a run-off, a candidate must win a **majority (>50%)** of the vote **and** obtain at least 25% of the vote in a minimum of 24 out of 36 states to be elected.
|
2023-02-17T19:00:00Z
|
2023-02-24T06:00:00Z
|
2023-03-01T16:10:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15136
|
Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?
|
After [downing a suspected Chinese spy balloon on February 4th, 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15023/chinese-balloon/), the US Government [shot down three additional high-altitude objects between February 10th and February 12th](https://apnews.com/article/china-us-high-altitude-balloons-in-airspace-8d8b9e7474027e1305264b2c7b8b04fb). The objects included:
- [An object about the size of a small car shot down over sea ice near Dead Horse, Alaska](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-says-it-shot-down-object-over-alaska-size-small-car-2023-02-10/)
- [A cylindrical object brought down by US fighters over Canadian territory](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-still-gives-no-details-about-alaska-ufo-new-object-seen-over-canada-2023-02-11/)
- [An octagonal object shot down over Lake Huron](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-officials-believe-flying-objects-over-alaska-canada-were-balloons-schumer-2023-02-12/)
The US [has not identified the origin or function of the objects](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/us/politics/us-shoots-down-object-michigan.html), but has [ruled out an extra-terrestrial origin](https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-charles-schumer-jake-sullivan-china-acc1a333326c50ee9649760c569c300f). A White House spokesperson [attributed the unprecedented activity](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/02/13/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-national-security-council-coordinator-for-strategic-communications-john-kirby-february-13-2023/) to the US more closely monitoring US airspace following the discovery of the Chinese balloon.
On February 12th, China said it was [preparing to shoot down an unknown flying object near its coast](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/12/china-prepares-shoot-unknown-flying-object-near-coast/).
On February 14th, Moldova [shut down its airspace](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-has-temporarily-closed-its-airspace-national-airliner-says-2023-02-14/) to investigate reports of a balloon-like object in the sky, and [Romania scrambled fighters](http://web.archive.org/web/20230214161836/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-detects-suspicious-weather-balloon-its-airspace-ministry-says-2023-02-14/) to pursue a suspected balloon in the country's airspace.
Neither China nor Romania reported shooting down any objects.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on Wikipedia's list of [2023 high-altitude object events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_high-altitude_object_events_in_2023). The question resolves positively if Wikipedia's list indicates an additional object is shot down before March 1, 2023, by a nation other than the United States. The question resolves negatively otherwise.
*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question, we will defer to Wikipedia for defining:
- Whether an object is a high-altitude object
- The shoot-down date
- The nationality of the unit shooting down the object
If a civilian or non-governmental organization downs a high-altitude object, that will not count for positive resolution. Only state actions will suffice for positive resolution.
In the event Wikipedia no longer maintains a list of 2023 high-altitude object events, Metaculus moderators will resolve the question based on [credible media reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
|
2023-02-17T19:00:00Z
|
2023-02-25T22:53:00Z
|
2023-03-02T01:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15127
|
Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?
|
Alphabet is the parent company of Google, which dominates the search business ecosystem with its search engine, Google Search. Google Search is the most widely used search engine in the world, accounting for [over 90%](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market share. Alphabet also provides a range of other products and services, including advertising technologies, cloud computing, mobile operating systems, and hardware devices. Ads (relying on Google Search) makes up the [majority of Google’s revenue.](https://www.oberlo.co.uk/statistics/how-does-google-make-money)
After Microsoft and OpenAI, the maker of [ChatGPT](https://chat.openai.com/chat) [extended their partnership](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/23/microsoftandopenaiextendpartnership/) in late January 2023, Microsoft announced in early February 2023 that Bing will be running on a [next-generation OpenAI model](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/02/07/reinventing-search-with-a-new-ai-powered-microsoft-bing-and-edge-your-copilot-for-the-web/), the first search engine to do so. In response, Google unveiled, [Bard](https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/), its own large language model aimed to provide a ChatGPT-like feature for Google. However, after Bard’s debut in an ad on [Google’s Twitter](https://twitter.com/google/status/1622710355775393793), Bard appeared to be making a mistake, erasing over [$100 billion of market value](https://www.npr.org/2023/02/09/1155650909/google-chatbot--error-bard-shares) on a single day. This brings to the fore the risks that Google faces in the search business and the consequent risks associated for Alphabet’s overall performance. As of February 2023, the total market cap of [Alphabet is $1.2 trillion,](https://companiesmarketcap.com/alphabet-google/marketcap/) down from over $1.3 trillion earlier that month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the total market capitalization of Alphabet (GOOG) falls below $1 trillion (USD) at any time before or on December 31, 2024.
This question resolves as **No** otherwise.
Data for market capitalisation will be taken from [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/alphabet-google/marketcap/). If this website is unavailable, other sources like [YahooFinance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) will be used
|
2023-02-19T17:16:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-17T17:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15111
|
Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?
|
The [city of Simferopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simferopol) is the second largest in Crimea and is considered the capital of the [Autonomous Republic of Crimea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_Republic_of_Crimea). The Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was the acting Ukrainian legislative body for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea before Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014. Since 2014, Crimea has been under Russian occupation, though there has been [little international recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_resolution_73/194) of this move.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and Ukraine's military gains later that year, there has been [speculation](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-case-for-ukraine-retaking-crimea/) that Ukraine will attempt to retake Crimea in 2023 in an attempt to restore its pre-2014 borders. Some have [argued](https://news.usni.org/2023/02/02/losing-crimea-would-escalate-russian-ukraine-conflict-former-defense-secretary-says) that even an attempt by Ukraine to do so could [alter Russia's nuclear calculus and risk escalation](https://www.ft.com/content/d632cae8-f06d-4f9d-9d90-f1cd0dfd7a70).
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if before December 31, 2023 the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the Supreme Council of Crimea Building in Simferopol as under "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensive" or as “Ukraine” in case of an end to the hostilities that sees Crimea return to Ukraine. Control of the Supreme Council of Crimea Building will be assessed in the ISW map based using the address: **Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol**. If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for assessed territory, then Metaculus will make a determination according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.
If, by December 31, 2023, the building of the Supreme Council of Crimea no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will resolve based on control of the area where the building was located on Feb 13, 2023.
This question resolves as **No** otherwise
|
2023-02-16T23:45:00Z
|
2023-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15106
|
Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?
|
In October 2022, an [outbreak of H5N1 at a Spanish mink farm](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/why-a-bird-flu-outbreak-at-a-mink-farm-is-reigniting-public-health-concerns) showed likely mink-to-mink transmission. All minks were culled and destroyed, and no farm workers were infected.
However, the outbreak raised concerns that H5N1 may be showing signs of acquiring mammal-to-mammal spread. The current outbreak in [wild birds and poultry](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) is the worst in US history, with over 60 million birds dead. The virus has spilled over into a range of mammalian species, but the October mink farm outbreak is the first likely case of spread of the virus from mammal to mammal.
[According to CIDRAP](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/researchers-detail-h5n1-avian-flu-outbreak-mink-farm-spain), no farm workers were infected during this outbreak, and Spanish mink farm workers are required to wear respirators to protect against COVID-19. Eleven farmworkers came in contact with infected mink, but [all tested negative for H5N1](https://www-nature-com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/articles/d41586-023-00201-2).
Scientists have sounded the alarm that a mink farm could generate a virus that spreads efficiently from mink to mink, and that this virus might also be capable of efficient human-to-human transmission.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **yes** if by the end of March 31st, 2024, any credible source reports the death of at least one mink farm worker due to any strain of bird flu between Jan 1st, 2023 and the 31st of December, 2023. The death need not be associated with a confirmed outbreak at any particular mink farm.
|
2023-05-06T14:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-04-01T23:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15096
|
Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: On 26 September 2022, a series of explosions were [reported](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pressure-defunct-nord-stream-2-pipeline-plunged-overnight-operator-2022-09-26/) to have damaged Nord Stream pipelines 1 and 2, which transported natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. These explosions resulted in subsequent underwater methane leaks, rendering the pipelines inoperable. The Russian state-owned gas company, Gazprom, is the majority owner of both pipelines. [At the time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Russia%E2%80%93European_Union_gas_dispute), Nord Stream 1 was operating at reduced capacity and Nord Stream 2 was not operating at all, though both contained gas.
In the months that followed, several European governments - especially those of [Sweden](https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/regeringen-haller-presstraff-om-gaslackagen-vid-nord-stream) and [Denmark](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/mette-frederiksen-myndigheder-vurderer-laekager-var-bevidst-sabotage) - claimed that these explosions were a direct result of sabotage. In the following weeks, investigations concluded that a deliberate detonation had occurred, as remains of explosives [were found](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/18/russia-ukraine-war-live-missile-strikes-leave-10-million-ukrainians-without-power-says-zelenskiy) near the blast site. The investigation was still ongoing in early 2023 with [no conclusive evidence yet announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/).
On February 8, 2023, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh published a [blog post](https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream) asserting that the United States had executed a covert sea operation to sabotage the Nord Stream pipeline system last September. Hersh's blog claimed that:
>Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning.
That same day, the White House [denied](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-says-blog-post-nord-stream-explosion-is-utterly-false-2023-02-08/) Hersh's allegations, which have not yet been corroborated, dismissing them as "false and complete fiction."
***Will any NATO member’s investigation conclude that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?***
This questions will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, an official investigation, conducted by - or on behalf of - any NATO member's government, finds the US was involved in a deliberate sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline on September 26, 2022.
For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a [credible media source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) for this question to resolve as Yes.
|
2023-02-09T16:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-31T13:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15088
|
Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?
|
As of February 2023, US government debt is rated AAA by Fitch, Aaa by Moody's and AA+ by S&P. These ratings indicate high creditworthiness. Recent discussion has focused on whether the US government will default in the near future due to the [debt ceiling](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-happens-when-us-hits-its-debt-ceiling) being [hit](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64322574). A default may lead to a downgrade in credit rating, which may lead to higher borrowing costs and lower liquidity.
The "big three" credit rating agencies listed above reassess their ratings several times per year, or after major events such as currency shocks, recessions, or changes in fiscal policy.
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2024, the credit rating for US sovereign debt is worse than AAA for Fitch, worse than Aaa for Moody's, or worse than AA+ for S&P. Ratings "outlooks" like stable, negative, or positive will not be considered. Resolution source is official announcement from the ratings agencies, which can currently be found below:
* [Fitch](https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/united-states-of-america-80442210)
* [Moody's](https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/United-States-of-America-Government-of-credit-rating-790575?cy=can)
* [S&P](https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/press-releases
|
2023-02-12T08:25:00Z
|
2023-12-31T06:00:00Z
|
2023-08-01T21:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15085
|
Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?
|
The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on [21 July, 2019](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-elections/2748306-cec-counts-100-percent-of-vote-in-ukraines-parliamentary-elections.html). According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), the next election must be “held on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of authority of the parliament.” This sets the date by which parliamentary elections ought to be held at 29 October, 2023. The election date has [not yet been confirmed](https://ukraine-elections.com.ua/en/election_data/upcoming_elections).
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, just under [20%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine#:~:text=However%2C%20by%2011%20November%2C%20the,about%2018%25%20of%20Ukraine's%20territory.) of Ukraine’s territory have been occupied, and fighting extends across much of the East and South. Further, due to the imposition of martial law and the threat of Russian military successes, there is some doubt about whether the parliamentary elections will be held on schedule. This is especially pressing as Ukraine’s [EU aspirations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/ukraine-could-become-eu-member-what-would-mean) will add to the difficulty of this decision.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if the Ukrainian parliamentary elections are held before 30 October, 2023. This will be ascertained based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the election.
For an election to count for the purposes of this question, it has to have at least 50% of the [2019 turnout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), i.e. at least 14,986,870 votes cast. This condition is there to ensure that elections are not only held in a small part of the country but are indeed nationwide elections.
This question will resolve **No** otherwise
|
2023-02-14T15:54:00Z
|
2023-10-14T11:00:00Z
|
2023-10-30T23:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15077
|
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?
|
There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:
> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed.
While no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.
According to the World Health Organization, the case fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza to date is [56%](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjYuqnc8YH9AhU4k4kEHU4PCvEQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.who.int%2Fdocs%2Fdefault-source%2Fwpro---documents%2Femergency%2Fsurveillance%2Favian-influenza%2Fai_20230106.pdf%3Fsfvrsn%3D5f006f99_108&usg=AOvVaw01YRFxzpAxbIC-2jQNbfLv). However, this is likely a [substantial overestimate](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18477756/) of the true mortality rate. Almost all of the 457 confirmed deaths occurred between 2003 and 2014.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, there have been at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1. This will resolve on the basis of figures compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO).
If WHO figures are not up-to-date as of January 1, 2024, then this question will resolve on the basis of other credible reporting on the number of confirmed deaths due to H5N1.
Fine Print: The 10,000 confirmed deaths would all have to occur in 2023 — it would exclude deaths before 2023.
|
2023-02-08T00:30:00Z
|
2024-01-01T01:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15076
|
Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?
|
On February 6, 2023, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic, [accused Ukraine](https://tass.com/defense/1571935) of having used chemical weapons on the Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and Ugledar front lines. Pushilin claimed that Ukrainian forces had been using chemical weapons on Russian troops for at least three weeks. So far, no confirmation have been made of this claim, although [videos](https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/dpr-chief-warns-ukrainian-forces-use-drone-dropped-chemical) supposedly exist of Ukrainians preparing drones with chemical weapons on them for use against Russian troops.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, *any* of the following groups state that Ukrainian forces used chemical weapons against Russian troops:
- The US Federal government
- The Ukrainian government
- The EU
- NATO
- The UN
- The Institute for the Study of War
Alternatively, Metaculus may use its discretion to determine if reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) confirm Ukrainian use of chemical weapons.
If this does not occur by the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**
|
2023-05-08T23:55:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15075
|
Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus*
- [Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15025/who-pheic-declaration-on-h5n1/)
- [Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15026/h5n1-human-to-human-transmission/)
____
The current bird flu outbreak has [spilled over](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64474594) into a variety of mammalian species. In October 2022, an [H5N1 infection at a Spanish mink farm](https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concerning-bird-flu-outbreak-spanish-mink-farm-triggers-pandemic-fears) appears to have spread from mink to mink, one of the first instances of mammal to mammal transmission. The animals were culled.
This [raised concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) of a repeat incident, with mink farms appearing as possible sites where mink-to-mink transmission could lead to evolution of a bird flu strain capable of efficient human-to-human transmission. Currently, human infections are [highly fatal](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) but occur only sporadically, primarily among poultry farmworkers in close contact with infected birds.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reports at least one additional mink farm culling after February 5, 2023 and before January 1st, 2024, due to an outbreak of bird flu among the minks. The question will resolve as **Yes** for any culling related to suspected bird flu, of any of the [avian influenza subtypes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza#:~:text=There%20are%20many%20subtypes%20of,H7N7%2C%20H7N9%2C%20and%20H9N2.), including but not limited to H5N1. Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available before April 1, 2024
|
2023-02-06T18:30:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2023-08-01T12:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15072
|
Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?
|
In 2012, the EU adopted the ‘Climate Change Sector Understanding’ (CCSU). It is a central part of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, a set of export credit regulations adopted by [11 countries or blocs](https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/export-credits/arrangement-and-sector-understandings/) (Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States). The goal of the CCSU was to focus on providing the “adequate financial terms and conditions to projects in selected sectors identified as significantly contributing to climate change mitigation, including renewable energy, [GHG] emissions’ reduction and high energy efficiency projects, climate change adaptation, as well as water projects’, according to the [explanatory memorandum](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455). This was last updated in 2014.
In 2022, the European Commission published a [Proposal for a Council Decision](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455), aiming to expand the scope of the CCSU on export credits for climate-related technologies, projects, and products.
> The CCSU has the general objective to offer more advantageous financing terms and conditions for climate-friendly projects in third countries than are stipulated in the horizontal rules of the Arrangement, and so incentivise exports of climate-friendly technologies. However, the CCSU was last updated in 2014, and today the coverage of exports that can benefit from […] its rules is too narrow compared to the climate change goals it pursues. In particular, the scope of the CCSU focuses on the sectors of energy generation and transmission. The limited impact resulting from the narrow coverage does not effectively support the Participants’ commitments assumed under the Paris Agreement and the EU ambitions as expressed in its Green Deal agenda. In this context, the Participants have agreed to broaden the scope of the CCSU and have agreed on a number of sectors that should be included in the CCSU, namely:
> Storage of electricity, including the manufacture and recycling of batteries.
> Zero emissions transport, including enabling infrastructure.
> Production of clean hydrogen, transmission, distribution and storage of hydrogen.
> Transmission and distribution of low carbon electricity.
> Low carbon manufacturing.
The EU’s [2030 Climate Target Plan](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/european-green-deal/2030-climate-target-plan_en) has been described as ambitious, and its willingness to finance novel climate technologies such as battery manufacturing and hydrogen storage may make the proposed change more likely as it could contribute to achieving these goals.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the proposal has been adopted by the Council of the European Union before January 1, 2025. This will resolve as **Yes** if the status of ‘2022/0276/NLE is changed to 'Adoption’ based on the [EUR-Lex tracker]( https://eur-lex.europa.eu/procedure/EN/2022_276?qid=1675607263408&rid=3).
This question will resolve as **No** otherwise
|
2023-02-17T15:55:00Z
|
2024-12-16T12:00:00Z
|
2023-07-14T04:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
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