id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-12568 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | In 1994-96, amidst the chaotic years that followed the breakup of the old Soviet Union, the former Checheno-Ingushetian republic broke away temporarily from Russia, achieving *de facto* independence as the unrecognized [Checen Republic of Ichkeria.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechen_Republic_of_Ichkeria) This statu... | 2022-10-04T04:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T21:59:00Z | 2025-01-17T02:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12567 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | On November 25, 2018, the [Rubik's Cube world record](https://ruwix.com/blog/yusheng-du-record-347/) was set at 3.47 seconds by Yusheng Du, beating the previous record of 4.22 by 0.75 seconds. Since then, no additional world records have been set, making this the [longest-standing](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/his... | 2022-09-24T21:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T03:00:00Z | 2023-06-14T22:06:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-12468 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Iran and Saudi Arabia have had [no relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations) [since the start of 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_attack_on_the_Saudi_diplomatic_missions_in_Iran), when the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked following the Saudi execution of a prominent Shia ... | 2022-09-18T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-03-10T13:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-12460 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | [Brendan James Fraser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_Fraser), born December 3, 1968, is an American-Canadian actor. He played Rick O'Connell in the Mummy trilogy (1999–2008), and has played leading roles in numerous comedy and fantasy films.
Following a series of injuries and personal mishaps, Fraser's promin... | 2022-10-23T04:00:00Z | 2023-03-11T00:00:00Z | 2023-03-13T04:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-12457 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | With significant change in the political landscape at both the state and federal level expected in November 2022, this question seeks to assess what impact changes in administrative policy may have on the safety of the citizens of Portland, Oregon.
According to an article featured in [the Oregonian Newspaper](https://... | 2023-02-02T23:11:00Z | 2024-02-01T21:31:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12326 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | On August 24, 2022, President Joe Biden [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/) his plan for the Department of Education to grant broad-based relief of student loans. Per the plan, the D... | 2022-10-23T04:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2023-06-30T12:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-12275 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | The [UK cost of living crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_cost_of_living_crisis) is a period starting in 2021 in which prices for many essential goods in the United Kingdom began increasing faster than household income, resulting in a fall in real income. This is caused in part by a rise in inflation in the UK. W... | 2022-08-24T21:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T16:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12255 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/)
* [If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what... | 2022-08-19T05:00:00Z | 2023-10-11T21:00:00Z | 2023-10-16T14:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12217 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president... | 2022-08-14T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-19T16:00:00Z | 2025-01-23T18:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12215 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Various criminal offenses against the United States include as a potential penalty legal disqualification from holding federal office, theoretically including the presidency of the United States.
These offenses include (inter alia) those under [18 U.S. Code § 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), whi... | 2022-08-13T07:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T00:00:00Z | 2024-03-04T15:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-12214 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | In August 2022, [federal agents executed a search warrant](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/politics/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-fbi-donald-trump/index.html) at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of former US President Donald Trump, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including... | 2022-08-13T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-20T00:00:00Z | 2023-12-19T23:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-12121 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Resolution Criteria: Recent media reports suggest the possibility that [North Korea may send troops to Ukraine](https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russian-state-tv-north-korea-offers-kremlin-100000-troops/) to assist Russia.
***Will North Korea have ≥100 troops in Ukraine before 2024, without Ukrainian consent?***
Resolv... | 2022-10-03T04:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T21:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12120 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Resolution Criteria: PredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market website associated with Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and operated by Aristotle, Inc. On August 4, 2022, PredcitIt [announced](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) that the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commis... | 2022-08-10T07:00:00Z | 2023-03-14T17:00:00Z | 2023-03-15T17:12:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-12041 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Western Balkan region has seen a flare up in tension both in [Kosovo](https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-border-corssing-blocked-tensions/31967812.html) and in [Republika Srpska](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/eu-mulls-ways-to-ease-tensions-in-bosnia-to-prevent-br... | 2022-08-12T21:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T21:59:00Z | 2025-01-17T02:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11919 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | In late June, America began sending [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS) (HIMARS) to Ukraine. Escalation risks being kept keenly in mind, these powerful long-range rocket launchers were sent [on the condition](https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/13/ukraines-new-rocket... | 2022-10-04T04:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T20:59:00Z | 2023-07-01T21:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11624 | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024? | Resolution Criteria: The Supreme Court is currently planning to hear a case, [National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/21-468.html), which will have massive near-term impacts on the welfare of farmed animals raised in the worst conditions.
[Proposition... | 2022-07-15T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-05-11T14:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11528 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | [Costco Wholesale Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costco) is an American multinational corporation which operates a chain of membership-only big-box retail stores. As of 2020, Costco was the fifth largest retailer in the world, and the world's largest retailer of choice and prime beef, organic foods, rotisse... | 2022-06-25T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11496 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Traditionally, the US FDA and other major medical/regulatory bodies in the US have taken a [conservative approach](https://www.propublica.org/article/this-scientist-created-a-rapid-test-just-weeks-into-the-pandemic-heres-why-you-still-cant-get-it) to authorizing at-home over-the-counter rapid tests — that is, tests tha... | 2022-06-23T21:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:00:00Z | 2023-02-24T19:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-11434 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | From [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/texas-secede-us-2023-gop-pushes-referendum-1717254),
> Texas Republicans are pushing for a referendum to decide whether the state should secede from the U.S.
> The demand for Texans to be allowed to vote on the issue in 2023 was one of many measures adopted in the Texas GOP's ... | 2022-06-23T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T06:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11421 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | [Sarah Elizabeth Sanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Sanders), born August 13, 1982, also known as Sarah Huckabee Sanders, is an American political analyst and politician. She was the 31st White House press secretary, serving under former President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2019. She was the third woman to ser... | 2022-07-28T22:00:00Z | 2024-11-08T00:00:00Z | 2024-11-06T21:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11346 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | In the US, a public health emergency (PHE) [can be declared](https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phedeclaration.aspx) in response to a disease/disorder, significant infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack:
> The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of... | 2022-06-16T21:00:00Z | 2025-01-03T22:00:00Z | 2022-08-04T13:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-11274 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. According to a [March 2021 joint article](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/no-government-can-address-the-threat-of-pandemics-alone-we-must-come-together) by leaders of 23 countries as well as President of the ... | 2022-06-09T21:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11272 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted innovation in face masks, including [through](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) a US BARDA [mask innovation challenge](https://drive.hhs.gov/mask_challenge.html).
According to BARDA's [target product profile](https://www.challenge.gov/?challen... | 2022-06-09T21:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-09T00:47:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11270 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Metagenomic sequencing is an approach that characterizes all of the genetic material (DNA and RNA) that is present in a sample. Recent developments in metagenomics, namely the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, have [enabled](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0113-7) billions of base pair... | 2022-06-09T21:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11265 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Twitter make personal ID authentication obligatory by July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11229/obligatory-id-authentication-on-twitter/)
----
Currently, Twitter doesn't make verification generally available. To be eligible, an account must fulfill notability stan... | 2022-06-10T21:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T10:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T14:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11229 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11265/verification-generally-available-on-twitter/)
----
Currently, Twitter doesn't make ID authentication obligatory. [From their help center](https://help.twitter.com/en/rul... | 2022-06-10T21:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T10:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T15:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-11181 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | The next [Nigerian Presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerian_presidential_election) is scheduled to be held on February 25, 2023. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is term-limited and may not seek reelection.
As of June 2023, the Peoples D... | 2022-06-12T05:00:00Z | 2023-02-24T17:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T08:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-10919 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Johnny Depp is a multiple award-winning actor, [who resigned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Depp#2012%E2%80%932020:_Career_setbacks) from his most recent role in 2018 after public allegations of domestic abuse. He has not received a role in any film produced by major studio since then, which he attributes to thi... | 2022-05-16T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-10831 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | *About the Potential Recipient*: [Volodymr Zelenskyy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy) became president of Ukraine in 2019. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and global attention to Zelenskyy increased dramatically ([English Wikipedia pageviews](https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipe... | 2022-05-02T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-30T16:00:00Z | 2023-10-06T09:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-9589 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Nigeria experienced nine attempted or successful [coups](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_coups_in_Nigeria) between 1966 and 1993. The country [exited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Nigerian_Republic) military rule in 1999.
Recent (starting 2021) military coups or coup attempts in Western Africa and the S... | 2022-01-31T05:00:00Z | 2024-12-30T13:00:00Z | 2025-01-31T15:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-9487 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | The generation interval is the time taken from the moment a person gets infected to the moment they infect a second person. On a population level, and as each individual typically transmits to multiple people, this forms a distribution. Along with the effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infec... | 2022-02-01T22:59:00Z | 2023-01-01T10:21:00Z | 2023-06-12T14:52:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-9471 | Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023? | [Score-Then-Automatic-Runoff voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STAR_voting) (STAR voting) is a proposed voting system for selecting a single winner among multiple candidates. There have been [some campaigns](https://www.starvoting.us/campaigns) to adopt STAR voting in the US, but as of January 2022, it is not used... | 2022-01-31T06:00:00Z | 2023-03-03T23:00:00Z | 2023-03-16T17:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-9415 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | [Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as firs... | 2022-01-23T08:00:00Z | 2024-11-07T00:00:00Z | 2024-08-08T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-9086 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | [Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. H... | 2022-01-20T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-8981 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | The [Chinese Economy](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI) has grown remarkably fast in recent decades, with 10-20% annual growth in GDP. Q1 of 2020 marked the one exception where GDP declined by 6% compared to Q1 2019, due to China's heavy lockdowns during the early [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikiped... | 2021-12-27T06:00:00Z | 2023-04-01T16:00:00Z | 2023-03-31T17:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-8945 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | [Cookies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_cookie) are a fundamental web technology which allows web servers to identify individual users, such as showing an email inbox only to an authorized user. However, this same technology has enabled online advertisers to build profiles of user behavior and deliver target adve... | 2021-12-20T06:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T22:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8931 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Magnus Carlsen, the current and five-time [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship), has recently [hinted](https://chess24.com/en/read/news/carlsen-hints-he-s-played-last-world-championship-match) that the 2021 World Chess Championship may have been the final time he will defend his... | 2021-12-21T00:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:00:00Z | 2023-04-09T18:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8851 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like [Eat Just](https://www.ju.st/) can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in [Singapore for $23](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/singapore-restaurant-first-ever-to-serve-eat-just-lab-grown-chick... | 2021-12-13T15:00:00Z | 2022-12-31T00:00:00Z | 2023-07-24T14:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8843 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | While once prohibitively high, the cost of plant-based meat [continues to fall](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive), with Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat's ground 'beef' prices now much closer to par with the average price for ground beef in America.
However, with an industry optimiz... | 2021-12-13T15:00:00Z | 2022-12-31T00:00:00Z | 2023-04-25T14:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8835 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.
The proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/ho... | 2021-12-21T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-17T01:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8831 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | [Elizabeth Mary Truss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss), born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, Truss has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, The... | 2021-12-11T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2022-09-05T11:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-8816 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the US break up Meta Platforms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9597/date-meta-faces-antitrust-violations/)
----
[Meta Platforms, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_platforms), formerly known as Facebook, Inc., is a multinational technology conglomerate based ... | 2022-02-19T06:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-14T08:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8800 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Space Debris Kill an Astronaut by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8750/will-space-debris-kill-an-astronaut-by-2025/)
----
[As far as we know](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.economist.com/science-and-technology/2019/08/10/no-one-has-yet-been-k... | 2022-08-07T05:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:20:00Z | 2025-01-01T05:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8774 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | The Communications Decency Act of 1996, and specifically [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230), were the result of a rare display of bi-partisanship during the Bill Clinton presidency (1993-2001). The legislation was driven by the efforts of Chris Cox, Republican congressman and former White House st... | 2022-02-01T06:00:00Z | 2024-12-30T15:26:00Z | 2025-01-23T19:23:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8771 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | In 1998, the U.S. congress passed the [Copyright Term Extension Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Term_Extension_Act), which extended copyright protection on works that were covered by copyright in 1923, changing the date on which they would enter the public domain to 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This questio... | 2021-12-04T08:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T06:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8750 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Space debris is accumulating in earth's orbit, which is a problem because, "[due to its very high speed in orbit—even relatively small pieces can damage or destroy satellites in a collision.](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)"
As an example, Russia's November 2021 anti-s... | 2021-12-02T06:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T14:52:00Z | 2025-01-05T05:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8618 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Eli Lilly has developed an injected drug based on [GLP-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucagon-like_peptide-1) and [gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastric_inhibitory_polypeptide), called tirzepatide. Tirzepatide has [performed well](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519) in diabete... | 2021-11-24T06:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2023-11-08T19:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-8605 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agree... | 2021-11-22T05:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8589 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Resolution Criteria: [Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty):
>"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union (and its successor state, the Russian Federation) signed in 1987. The INF Treat... | 2021-11-25T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8588 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | The [United Nations state](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):
>"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was... | 2021-11-25T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8553 | Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic._
As far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:
* The John D. ... | 2021-11-18T15:00:00Z | 2022-03-21T21:59:00Z | 2023-04-01T15:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8550 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | >"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and ac... | 2021-11-11T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8549 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | [Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):
>"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by an... | 2021-11-18T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2023-04-04T14:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-8547 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | >"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and ac... | 2021-11-11T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8546 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | [Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):
>"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any ... | 2021-11-18T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8541 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular [a "by 2023" version of this ... | 2021-11-18T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2024-01-04T17:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8539 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively... | 2021-11-11T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8537 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively... | 2021-11-11T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2023-12-31T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8536 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively... | 2021-11-11T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2023-12-31T09:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8535 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positivel... | 2021-11-11T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2022-10-27T14:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-8534 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
According to [a BBC article released on 19-1... | 2021-11-11T15:00:00Z | 2023-03-10T22:59:00Z | 2022-03-24T11:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-8523 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | [The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text), commonly referred to as the “Biden infrastructure plan,” is projected to cost between $1 and $2 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompti... | 2021-11-07T21:00:00Z | 2025-01-19T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8499 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | [Libor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor), the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people [went to ja... | 2021-11-21T05:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T10:00:00Z | 2023-04-03T11:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-8460 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | The US' national debt has [grown significantly](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/), particularly during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over a potential debt crisis have been voiced repeatedly, particularly during [reoccurring legislative debates to raise the debt ceiling... | 2021-10-30T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-06T20:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15606 | Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023? | The [presidency](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/rop/chapter-4) of the [UN Security Council](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/) is determined by a rotational system, with each of the 15 member states serving as president for a one-month term. The [order of rotation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/conte... | 2023-03-24T16:30:00Z | 2023-04-01T18:00:00Z | 2023-04-01T15:07:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15577 | [Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023? | The Federal Reserve (Fed) utilizes various tools and facilities, known as [Credit and Liquidity Programs](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm), to maintain financial stability, support economic growth, and ensure smooth functioning of credit markets. The Fed's [balance sheet](https://www.... | 2023-03-19T20:57:00Z | 2023-04-30T11:00:00Z | 2023-04-28T22:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15576 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | In 2022, Meta's virtual reality platform for the Meta Quest Headset, [Horizon Worlds](https://www.meta.com/gb/horizon-worlds/), faced difficulties [attracting and retaining users](https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/15/23405811/meta-horizon-worlds-losing-users-report). According to [internal documents obtained by the *Wal... | 2023-03-21T14:44:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-26T03:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15574 | [Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023? | Resolution Criteria: In March 2023, the [financial sector has experienced its worst rout since the Covid-19 pandemic](https://www.ft.com/content/608cd08d-97f9-486d-84f5-b01d57ec3471) began, with nearly half a trillion dollars wiped from the value of bank shares worldwide. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has caused ... | 2023-03-18T13:30:00Z | 2023-04-30T11:00:00Z | 2023-03-19T19:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15573 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in... | 2023-03-19T05:29:00Z | 2023-04-15T19:00:00Z | 2023-04-16T00:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15528 | Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023? | On 14 March 2023, [OpenAI](https://openai.com/) announced their latest model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) family, GPT-4. In the [product announcement post for GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4), OpenAI wrote:
> GPT-4 generally lacks knowledge of events that have occurred after the vast majo... | 2023-03-19T16:25:00Z | 2023-06-30T09:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T16:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15470 | Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023? | Chinese President Xi Jinping is [planning to visit Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-plans-russia-visit-soon-next-week-sources-2023-03-13/) in March for a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This visit comes as China has been [offering to broker peace in Ukraine](https://news.yahoo.com/ch... | 2023-03-17T05:14:00Z | 2023-04-01T03:00:00Z | 2023-04-01T15:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15467 | Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024? | On March 14, 2023, [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced and released to the public via the ChatGPT webapp.
While it performed in the top 80 or even 90 percentile (compared to humans) on many tests like the bar exam, LSAT, SAT, most APs, and more, it struggled with medium and hard Leetcode questions... | 2023-03-16T20:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T08:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15466 | Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? | On March 14, 2023, GPT-4 was [announced](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and released to the public via the ChatGPT webapp.
Earlier the same year, Microsoft [integrated GPT-4](https://blogs.bing.com/search/march_2023/Confirmed-the-new-Bing-runs-on-OpenAI%E2%80%99s-GPT-4) into Bing, using it to back a chatbot. Afte... | 2023-03-15T20:00:00Z | 2023-05-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-06-01T16:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15422 | Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023? | The [KBW Nasdaq Bank Index](https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/index/overview/bkx) is a benchmark index that tracks the performance of leading banks and financial institutions in the United States. It includes 24 stocks of large U.S. national money center banks, regional banks, and thrift institutions that are publicly trad... | 2023-03-11T19:00:00Z | 2023-04-28T11:00:00Z | 2023-04-28T19:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15421 | Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, making it the largest failure of a bank [since 2008](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/):
> California banking regulators closed the bank, which did business as Silicon Valley Bank, on Friday and appointed the Federal ... | 2023-03-11T22:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-05-01T05:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15420 | Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023? | USD Coin (USDC) is a stablecoin cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value of $1 USD. It is issued by [CENTRE](https://www.centre.io/#:~:text=An%20Independent%2C,largest%20stablecoin%20on%20the%20market.), a joint venture between Coinbase and Circle, and is backed by U.S. dollar-denominated assets held at reg... | 2023-03-11T14:30:00Z | 2023-04-30T11:00:00Z | 2023-03-13T14:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15414 | Will Silicon Valley Bank file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | [Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)](https://www.svb.com/) is a financial institution that was founded in 1983 in Santa Clara, California. Initially, the bank focused on providing banking services to the technology and life sciences industries in the Silicon Valley region. Over the years, SVB has grown to become a global financ... | 2023-03-10T16:30:00Z | 2023-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2023-03-10T16:46:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15412 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | [Melitopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melitopol) is a city in the [Zaporizhzhia Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Oblast) in Ukraine. It has a population of nearly 150,000 and is located in southeastern Ukraine, near the [Sea of Azov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Azov). It was captured by R... | 2023-03-15T08:37:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15405 | Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023? | The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Rese... | 2023-03-10T16:00:00Z | 2023-03-22T21:00:00Z | 2023-03-22T20:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15259 | Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023? | *This question is a successor to a [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13499/6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/) [set](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13538/60-minute-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/). The background has been adapted and updated from this original version.*
---
Twitter is a social m... | 2023-02-27T18:03:00Z | 2023-07-01T11:00:00Z | 2023-07-03T15:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15258 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | [Transnistria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) is a separatist-controlled region of Moldova, controlled by a pro-Russian government since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since the start of the Ukraine War, there have been numerous reports of a potential invasion of the region. These include possible or... | 2023-02-26T10:54:00Z | 2023-07-01T07:00:00Z | 2023-07-06T13:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15254 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | The African National Congress (ANC) is a political party in South Africa that has been in power since the country's first democratic elections in [1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_African_National_Congress). The party was founded in 1912 and played a key role in the fight against apartheid, South Afri... | 2023-02-26T10:42:00Z | 2024-04-30T10:00:00Z | 2024-06-01T12:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15253 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: The [New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by the United States and Russia in 2010. The treaty imposes [limits](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) on the number of deployed strategic n... | 2023-02-27T17:09:00Z | 2024-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15249 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)
* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-... | 2023-02-23T19:54:00Z | 2024-11-05T06:00:00Z | 2024-11-06T20:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15248 | Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023? | Resolution Criteria: On February 6th, Google announced the launch of [Bard](https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/), their AI powered search tool, set to compete with ChatGPT and a GPT-enabled Bing search.
While the tool was demo-ed during their launch announcement, it's still not available.... | 2023-02-24T20:45:00Z | 2023-03-03T19:00:00Z | 2023-03-05T23:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15247 | Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022? | Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system, covering an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent.
During the summer in the southern hemisphere, sea ice is at a minimum. In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/new... | 2023-02-24T20:41:00Z | 2023-03-02T19:00:00Z | 2023-03-08T16:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15220 | Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012? | Arctic sea ice extent refers to the amount of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The extent of Arctic sea ice varies seasonally, reaching a minimum in late summer and a maximum in late winter. The long-term trend for Arctic sea ice extent has been a decrease, with a record low being reached in 2012, wh... | 2023-03-03T21:49:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-06-08T12:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15148 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | On January 12, 2023, Virgin Galactic [reported](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1706946/000119312523007268/d438974dex991.htm) that it remains "on track" to begin commercial service in the second quarter of 2023 following two previous delays in 2021 ([original announcement](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/n... | 2023-02-20T08:32:00Z | 2023-06-29T16:00:00Z | 2023-06-29T15:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15143 | Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote? | Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, with a population of [over 200 million people](https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/NG). The country has a rich recent democratic history, having held [several elections](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/resources/173303-calendar-elections-nigeria-since-1999.html?tzt... | 2023-02-17T19:00:00Z | 2023-02-24T06:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T16:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15136 | Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023? | After [downing a suspected Chinese spy balloon on February 4th, 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15023/chinese-balloon/), the US Government [shot down three additional high-altitude objects between February 10th and February 12th](https://apnews.com/article/china-us-high-altitude-balloons-in-airspace-8d8b9e747... | 2023-02-17T19:00:00Z | 2023-02-25T22:53:00Z | 2023-03-02T01:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15127 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Alphabet is the parent company of Google, which dominates the search business ecosystem with its search engine, Google Search. Google Search is the most widely used search engine in the world, accounting for [over 90%](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market share. Alph... | 2023-02-19T17:16:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-17T17:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15111 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024? | The [city of Simferopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simferopol) is the second largest in Crimea and is considered the capital of the [Autonomous Republic of Crimea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_Republic_of_Crimea). The Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was the acting Ukrainian legislat... | 2023-02-16T23:45:00Z | 2023-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15106 | Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023? | In October 2022, an [outbreak of H5N1 at a Spanish mink farm](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/why-a-bird-flu-outbreak-at-a-mink-farm-is-reigniting-public-health-concerns) showed likely mink-to-mink transmission. All minks were culled and destroyed, and no farm workers were infected.
However, the outbreak raised co... | 2023-05-06T14:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-04-01T23:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15096 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: On 26 September 2022, a series of explosions were [reported](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pressure-defunct-nord-stream-2-pipeline-plunged-overnight-operator-2022-09-26/) to have damaged Nord Stream pipelines 1 and 2, which transported natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea... | 2023-02-09T16:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-31T13:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15088 | Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023? | As of February 2023, US government debt is rated AAA by Fitch, Aaa by Moody's and AA+ by S&P. These ratings indicate high creditworthiness. Recent discussion has focused on whether the US government will default in the near future due to the [debt ceiling](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-happens-when-us-hits-its-... | 2023-02-12T08:25:00Z | 2023-12-31T06:00:00Z | 2023-08-01T21:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15085 | Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023? | The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on [21 July, 2019](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-elections/2748306-cec-counts-100-percent-of-vote-in-ukraines-parliamentary-elections.html). According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), the next election must be “hel... | 2023-02-14T15:54:00Z | 2023-10-14T11:00:00Z | 2023-10-30T23:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15077 | Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024? | There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and C... | 2023-02-08T00:30:00Z | 2024-01-01T01:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15076 | Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024? | On February 6, 2023, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic, [accused Ukraine](https://tass.com/defense/1571935) of having used chemical weapons on the Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and Ugledar front lines. Pushilin claimed that Ukrainian forces had been using chemical weapons on Russian troop... | 2023-05-08T23:55:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15075 | Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024? | *Related Questions on Metaculus*
- [Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15025/who-pheic-declaration-on-h5n1/)
- [Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15026/... | 2023-02-06T18:30:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2023-08-01T12:55:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-15072 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | In 2012, the EU adopted the ‘Climate Change Sector Understanding’ (CCSU). It is a central part of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, a set of export credit regulations adopted by [11 countries or blocs](https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/export-credits/arrangement-and-sector-understandings/) (Austra... | 2023-02-17T15:55:00Z | 2024-12-16T12:00:00Z | 2023-07-14T04:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
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