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meta-26140
|
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024?
|
The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.
Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the "status quo" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if any of the following occur between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024:
There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory ("free area" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data.
There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.
There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC and citing evidence that the government of the majority of the ROC is de facto controlled by China, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. Articles which, in the judgment of Metaculus, are hyperbole or otherwise do not make a strong case that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC will not count.
Fine Print: A peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan would result in this question resolving Yes.
Articles must be written and published by different sources and must reach their conclusions largely independently, publishing the same article at a separate news outlet or several news outlets reporting statements made by the same individual or group of individuals will not count as separate articles.
|
2024-07-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26139
|
Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, dominate racing in distances 800m and longer. Will they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenjin roots.
Fine Print: The athletes do not have to compete for Kenya nor be entirely Kalenjin; as long as they have part of their origin in the ethnic group, this counts.
|
2024-07-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-11T11:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26138
|
Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?
|
On July 5, 2024, this value was 1.3631. In the past 3 months, the high has been 1.3824, and the low has been 1.3493.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXCAUS) reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data
(FRED) database at the [DEXCAUS webpage](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCAUS) exceeds 1.3600 for September 20, 2024. It resolves as **No** if the rate is 1.3600 or lower. The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to a week for the data for September 20, 2024 to be posted. If it has not been posted as of September 27, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus admins, this question will resolve based on the most recent figure posted.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question's resolution, there will not be any rounding of the figures posted at FRED.
|
2024-07-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-23T23:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26134
|
Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?
|
[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two "integrated flight tests"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.
SpaceX eventually [plans to "catch"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) "Mechazilla" and refers to its manueverable arms as "chopsticks", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:
>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with the tower.
Fine Print: * A catch attempt will be considered one where the Super Heavy booster makes contact with the tower or the catching arms ("chopsticks") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.
* So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where it approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.
* The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.
* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.
* The catch attempt need not occur as part of an integrated flight test (where the second stage is stacked on top of the booster). However, the booster must reach an altitude of at least 10 kilometers before attempting a landing to qualify.
|
2024-07-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26133
|
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?
|
*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*
---
[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.
[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War.
Within Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks.
Resolution Criteria: If Benjamin Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister of Israel from July 1, 2024 to Sept 30, 2024, this question will resolve as YES. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024, this question resolves NO.
|
2024-07-15T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26109
|
Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?
|
Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness-as-7th-lawmaker-calls-on-him-to-quit-race) as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate or even to [serve out his second term](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4765107-adam-smith-doubts-biden-second-term/) if re-elected. Two weeks later, on July 11, 2024, NBC News reported a dire situation for Biden's campaign, with his campaign staffers doubting he had a tangible path toward winning the general election and his campaign's fundraising efforts taking a hit. Additionally, on July 11th Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden-house-democrats-call-drop-out) 11 Democratic House members and 1 Senator having publicly urged Biden to drop out, with more lawmakers planning to join them.
The [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention) will be held August 19 to 22, 2024. Typically the convention is where the nomination of a presidential candidate occurs, though Democrats could [potentially hold a virtual vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-nominate-joe-biden-virtual-vote-before-convention-despite-turmoil-2024-07-15/) in late July to select the nominee.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 22, 2024, any of these four events takes place with respect to the 2024 US presidential election, resolved in accordance with the Metaculus [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) policy:
1. President Joe Biden or his campaign announces that Biden will not seek or accept the Democratic Party's nomination or (if he is officially nominated before August 22, 2024), Biden resigns as the nominee.
2. Biden officially releases his delegates from their [pledge](https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024) to vote for him in the Democratic Party's presidential roll call ballot.
3. Biden endorses another person to be the Democratic nominee.
4. Biden ceases to be President of the United States.
If none of these events occur before August 22, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: This question will not resolve as No before August 22, 2024, which is the final day of the Democratic National Convention and is the traditional day in which the party's presidential nominee makes their acceptance speech. So for example, if Biden becomes the official nominee through a virtual roll call vote held before the Convention, this question will remain open and can still resolve as Yes if Biden subsequently announces that he is stepping down as the nominee.
Actions such as canceling campaign events that are merely suggestive of Biden withdrawing his candidacy are insufficient for a Yes resolution.
A temporary suspension of Biden's campaign will not count.
With respect to point #2 in the main Resolution Criteria, spontaneous remarks by Biden about his delegates, such as his recently saying at a press conference that delegates are "free to do whatever they want" but "it's not gonna happen" do not count as officially releasing delegates from their pledge. A Yes resolution would require a formal statement or action from the Biden-Harris Campaign officially releasing the pledged delegates in the presidential roll call.
As stated in Metaculus's credible source policy, there must be "no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness." Therefore, false announcements, hacks, or misleading information will not count.
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-21T16:00:00Z
|
2024-07-21T17:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26102
|
Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?
|
On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed "indefinitely" until at least July 2nd.
On June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.
Will they be Earthside on August 15?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are on Earth's surface as of 12 noon on August 15, 2024 Eastern time, based on credible sources such as reporting from NASA, SpaceX, Boeing, or Roscosmos.
Fine Print: This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.
The question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. Both astronauts do not need to return to Earth at the same time.
"Earth's surface" is to be understood in opposition to space (above the Kármán line), orbit (aboard the ISS), or in transit aboard a surface-bound ship.
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-19T22:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26101
|
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?
|
In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete but must at least be announced. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.
If TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering by end of Sept 30, 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26100
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?
|
[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
As of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.
Republican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.
Attorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate.
Given Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if before September 24, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.
Fine Print: An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.
However, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.
Any revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-23T19:56:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26099
|
Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?
|
Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/), have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.
The emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, before Sept 30, 2024, credible evidence becomes available that a country not currently possessing nuclear weapons has successfully developed and tested a nuclear weapon. The current nuclear-armed states are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.
This evidence can come from one or more of the following sources:
An official announcement or acknowledgment by the government of the country in question that it has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.
Confirmation from a recognized international organization (e.g., International Atomic Energy Agency, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization) or a major intelligence agency (e.g., CIA, MI6, FSB) that the country in question has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.
Detection and verification of a nuclear test by a global monitoring network, such as the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), with widespread international consensus on the identity of the country responsible for the test
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26098
|
On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?
|
The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.
India's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T19:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26097
|
On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?
|
The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.
India's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T19:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26096
|
On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?
|
The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.
India's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T19:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26095
|
Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
|
As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called "Individual Neutral Athletes" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.
The Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged 1.7.
Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Individual Neutral Athletes collectively win 15 or more gold medals at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The source of resolution will be the official medal tally published by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) or other credible sources if such reporting from the IOC is unavailable. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No".
In the event that Individual Neutral Athletes are confirmed to have won 15 or more gold medals prior to the end of the Games, the market will resolve immediately to "Yes".
Fine Print: This question is Annulled if the 2024 Summer Olympics is postponed past 2024 or otherwise cancelled.
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-11T16:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26084
|
Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?
|
The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023.
Current reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:
### 7/11/2024
Times of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)
Axios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)
### 7/10/2024
Axios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel)
Washington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)
CBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to "square one"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)
### 7/8/2024
Reuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)
CNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)
### 7/7/2024
The Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)
### 11/5/2008
The Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)
Resolution Criteria: For this question to resolve as "Yes", Israel and Hamas must, before November 5th, 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement.
If there is a violation of an agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, this is not enough alone to resolve "No". The question will only resolve "No" if:
- There was no agreement that was signed (or otherwise took effect) at least by November 4th 11:59PM PDT, or
- Said agreement did not start effect at least by December 4th 11:59PM PDT, or
- Said agreement did not end up lasting >=30 days by January 4th 11:59PM PDT.
Fine Print: If both Israel and Hamas announce unilateral ceasefires (or any other such pauses) that are in effect at the same time, this will be considered "an agreed-upon pause" for the purposes of this question, and the 30-day count will begin from the day the latter of the two goes into effect.
Attacks by or on other parties (e.g., non-Hamas Palestinian groups in Gaza) will not be considered violations of the agreement for the purposes of this question.
A one-sided victory without concession or surrender by the other party will not be considered "an agreed-upon pause" and will not count toward resolution. Any other cessation of fighting without an agreement will also not count toward resolution.
Credit to [Infer-Pub](https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1353-will-there-be-an-agreed-upon-pause-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-hamas-that-starts-before-1-december-2024-and-lasts-at-least-30-days) for inspiring the resolution criteria.
|
2024-07-14T12:00:00Z
|
2024-11-01T19:00:00Z
|
2024-11-22T23:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26024
|
Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?
|
After their 8-win 2023 season, the Denver Broncos cut Russell Wilson and drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th draft pick. They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if Bo Nix enters the field as the Denver Broncos are about to start their first offensive drive of their game against the New York Jets.
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-29T17:48:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26023
|
Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?
|
Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas.
China and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts.
For further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if before September 30, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or credible reports:
The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).
The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.
The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.
The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.
If there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as No.
Fine Print: “Diplomat" is defined using the LSData definition of [diplomatic agent](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent): "...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. Their job is to communicate with the government of the country they are in and promote their own country's interests."
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26022
|
Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?
|
In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.
The ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
See Also
Base rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Yoav Gallant (Defense Minister).
Fine Print: A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.
Secret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T19:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26021
|
At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?
|
Usain Bolt's 9.63s Olympic record has stood since the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if the winning time of the men's 100m race is less than 9.63s.
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-04T20:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26020
|
Will the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) exceed 316.000 for August 2024, according to FRED?
|
For May 2024, this value was 313.225. For August 2023, it was 306.187
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data
(FRED) database at the CPIAUCSL webpage exceeds 316.000 for August 2024. It resolves as **No** if the rate is 316.000 or lower. The CPI-U Fred page is typically updated the day after the BLS release, per its [schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). Therefore, resolution is expected on September 12, 2024. If FRED has not updated by September 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will resolve the question based on the most recent credible data, typically from the BLS.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question's resolution, there will not be any rounding of the figures posted at FRED.
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-11T12:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26019
|
Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?
|
SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.
In 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.
On March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.
In the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted "Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if exactly 1 or 2 SpaceX Starship launches reach an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024.
The resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.
Fine Print: - In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26018
|
Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?
|
SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.
In 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.
On March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.
In the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted "Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if exactly 2 SpaceX Starship launches reach an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024.
The resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.
Fine Print: - In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26017
|
Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?
|
SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.
In 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.
On March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.
In the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted "Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if exactly 1 SpaceX Starship launch reachs an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024.
The resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.
Fine Print: - In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T14:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26006
|
Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?
|
On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).
The Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.
According to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.
For the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.
Fine Print: * If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.
* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T18:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26005
|
Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?
|
On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).
The Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.
According to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.
For the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.
Fine Print: * If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.
* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T18:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-26004
|
Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?
|
On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).
The Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.
According to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.
For the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.
Fine Print: * If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.
* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-17T18:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25993
|
Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?
|
[Medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a fairly small number of countries; the United States alone has won about 1 out of every 6 medals ever awarded, and a total of ten countries account for the majority of medalists.
Conversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are about 60 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal; the most recent countries to win their first medal, in the Tokyo 2020 Games, were Burkina Faso, San Marino and Turkmenistan.
Will at least 5 new countries win their first medal at the current Games?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: The Refugee Olympic Team, which won no medals at either Games it has participated in, will count if it wins; "Individual Neutral Athletes" will not.
|
2024-07-27T18:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T11:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T06:22:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25992
|
At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?
|
[Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.
Conversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:
* London 2012: 3
* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9
* Tokyo 2020: 3
Will this number be 5 or more this year?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic gold medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: Liechtenstein has won gold at Winter Games, but not the Summer ones; it won't count as a "first" if it wins any in Paris.
The Refugee Olympic Team, which won no medals at either Games it has participated in, will count if it wins; "Individual Neutral Athletes" or [Independent Olympians at the Olympic Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Olympians_at_the_Olympic_Games) will not.
|
2024-07-26T18:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T11:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T17:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25989
|
Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
[Tennis at the Olympics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics) has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Fine Print: The type of medal does not matter, nor does it whether the doubles medal is in the athlete's own gender only or mixed.
|
2024-07-28T03:59:00Z
|
2024-08-04T06:00:00Z
|
2024-08-04T23:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25988
|
Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?
|
Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. [These are](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/information/team-sports-how-can-your-team-qualify-for-the-paris-2024-olympics):
* Association football
* Basketball 5×5
* Basketball 3×3
* Field hockey
* Handball
* Rugby sevens
* Volleyball
* Water polo
(Beach volleyball is listed on the source but excluded from the question because two teams from each nation can qualify, unlike the other sports.)
Will the women's teams of the same nation win at least two of these sports? The
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if women's teams representing eight different National Olympic Committees (NOC) win gold in these eight team sports at the 2024 Paris Olympics:
- association football
- 3×3 basketball
- 5×5 basketball
- field hockey
- handball
- rugby sevens
- volleyball
- water polo.
Otherwise, the same NOC must have won at least two of these events, so the question resolves as **Yes**.
The question can resolve as soon as it becomes clear one of these conditions will happen (e.g. neither team playing the final of the last event has won any of the others).
Fine Print: This question's main criteria (resolves as No if women's teams representing eight different NOCs win gold) has the assumption of no sharing of gold. For purposes of this question, [sharing a gold medal](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9086848/) does not count. A country has to be the sole winner of at least two events in order to count.
One situation in which the question will be **Annulled** is as follows:
- the condition for it resolving **Yes** has not yet happened;
- it becomes apparent that not all eight events will have a clearly defined winner;
- the event(s) that will not have a winner could have been won by a team that has won another sport.
This could happen if the final for some of the events is cancelled, for example, and the Olympics end without it being played.
|
2024-07-29T00:00:00Z
|
2024-08-04T13:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T15:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25984
|
Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record for the men's pole vault at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record [has risen to 6.24m](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression), set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024. In 2020, his only chance so far to break the Olympic record, the Swede did succeed at his 6.19m WR attempt, though he had already won gold with 6.02m.
With Braz suspended from the current Games on account of doping, will his record be broken by the dominant world record holder, or maybe by another competitor?
The men's pole vault [is scheduled](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/athletics/men-s-pole-vault?day=3-august) to begin August 3, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if at the 2024 Paris Olympics, any men's pole vault athlete clears the bar at 6.04m or higher, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Jumps made at either the qualifying or final round count for this question.
|
2024-07-27T11:00:00Z
|
2024-08-03T05:00:00Z
|
2024-08-05T21:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25983
|
Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have [athletes competing for multiple medals](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multiple_Olympic_medalists). American swimmer Michael Phelps, for example, would rank 41st all by himself in the medal table, compared with all countries competing in all Summer Olympics.
Will the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024 Olympic gold medals competes in the [swimming events](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/sports/swimming). Otherwise it resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If more than one athlete is tied for the most gold medals, this question resolves as **Yes** as long as at least one of them is a swimmer. All references to "being a swimmer" in this question mean "competing in a swimming event"; a gymnast e.g. who can swim does not count.
|
2024-07-27T03:45:00Z
|
2024-08-11T06:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T16:16:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25982
|
At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?
|
The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as "the world's fastest man".
The [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete runs the Men's 100M race at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics in less than 9.63s, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The world record is 9.58s, but a time higher than that and lower than the Olympic record is still sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**. Live transmission reporting a time as a record will be enough; the record need not be ratified by World Athletics, as that ratification can be later rescinded.
Wind speed in the direction of the race needs to be less than 2.0m/s, the normal condition for record validity; if the race is run with stronger winds, any records set there are not valid for this question.
|
2024-07-26T12:00:00Z
|
2024-08-04T07:45:00Z
|
2024-08-04T20:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25981
|
Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, [dominate racing in distances between 800m and the marathon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalenjin_people#Sport). It is estimated that 40% of the top honours available to men in international athletics at these distances (Olympic medals, World Championships medals, and World Cross Country Championships honours) have been earned by Kalenjin runners, in spite of the ethnicity representing less than 0.1% of the human population.
Will they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenjin roots, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: The athletes do not have to compete for Kenya nor be entirely Kalenjin; as long as they have part of their ancestral or cultural origin in the ethnic group, this counts.
|
2024-07-28T13:30:00Z
|
2024-08-10T06:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T10:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25960
|
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?
|
On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.
[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:
>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.
CDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as "None" and a low current public health risk.
In its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:
>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, after April 11, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.
Fine Print: * Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.
* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.
* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25959
|
Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?
|
The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.
Historical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.
For more information please see:
[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.
In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T19:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25958
|
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?
|
The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.
Historical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.
For more information please see:
[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.
In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T19:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25957
|
Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?
|
The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.
Historical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.
For more information please see:
[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.
In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T19:36:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25956
|
Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?
|
In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions:
| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |
|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|
| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |
| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |
| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |
| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |
| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |
On paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline.
However, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as "[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html)," there was a widespread "freak out" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that "One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/).
Initial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.
See Also
Pew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />
US News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />
Wikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />
The Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-23T11:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25955
|
Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?
|
On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).
With respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions
by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as "punishment" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.
Since the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called "Taiwan independence separatists."
In late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included "[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.
Fine Print: * Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).
* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.
* "Armed conflict" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25954
|
Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?
|
After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.
The majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.
Once the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.
While the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is not New Popular Front or Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.
Fine Print: The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry will be the source as to which party they belong to.
The question will resolve as Yes if there is no sitting Prime Minister at that time.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T11:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25953
|
Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?
|
After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.
The majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.
Once the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.
While the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.
Fine Print: The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry will be the source as to which party they belong to.
The question will resolve as No if there is no sitting Prime Minister at that time.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T11:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25952
|
Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?
|
After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.
The majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.
Once the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.
While the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is New Popular Front on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.
Fine Print: The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry will be the source as to which party they belong to.
The question will resolve as No if there is no sitting Prime Minister at that time.
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-31T11:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25936
|
Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?
|
The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.
In April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):
>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.
On April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):
>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.
>
>"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high," Rybar said.
>
>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, after May 2, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.
Fine Print: * The bridge must be physically struck by the weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles, attacks that are intercepted or otherwise do not strike the bridge will not count.
* There is no requirement on how much damage the bridge must receive, the only requirement is that the strike must pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge. For example, a car bomb detonated on the bridge would count, while the bridge being struck with bullets of a caliber that would cause only superficial harm, or the collision of a small vessel that does not pose a threat to the integrity of the bridge do not count.
* There is no requirement on who the attack is attributed to. Attacks attributed to or blamed on any country or group would count, including terrorism.
* A strike on either the rail bridge or the road bridge counts.
* A strike on the immediate bridge approaches will also count.
* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether potentially qualifying events satisfy these criteria, and may **annul** the question if it is unclear from available reporting whether the criteria have been satisfied.
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25935
|
Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?
|
After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):
>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
>
>. . .
>
>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, by Sept 30, 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q* (or Q-Star) and publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q*.
Fine Print: A description of Q* must state that it is a system or method that was or is currently being developed or explored by OpenAI and must provide some information about what Q* is (for example, giving an overview of how Q* works without delving into technical detail). A description of a system or method that was published before 2024 but is publicly acknowledged to be Q* before Sept 30, 2024 will resolve the question as Yes.
A description does not need to contain any of the following:
A statement that Q* has been used on or is an AI system that has finished training or that is functional.
An accompanying release of an AI system known as Q* or that has been trained using Q*.
Any performance results.
A paper describing it in detail.
A public acknowledgement that the system or method described is Q* does not need to be made in the initial document describing the system or method, and can occur at a later time, including from public statements by OpenAI staff, including interviews, media appearances, or podcasts (this does not include statements made anonymously or on background). The question will resolve as Yes when all criteria are met. For example, if OpenAI publishes information about an AI system not named Q*, but in a later interview the OpenAI CEO states that the system is the previously rumored Q*, the question will resolve as Yes.
The system or method must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces such a system or method but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will not be sufficient.
A description specifically of Q* must be provided, a description of a system or method characterized as a successor to Q* would not qualify.
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25934
|
Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?
|
60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).
In [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), "For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies." Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) "It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T15:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25933
|
Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)
be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?
|
According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for July 20, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on July 20, 2023.
Fine Print: The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question, later updates or revisions will be immaterial.
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-10T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T19:43:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25875
|
Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?
|
As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.
On June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated.
Biden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term.
In [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate.
As of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.
On June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):
>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.
>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 31, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.
To qualify for a Yes resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.
If such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 11, 2024, this question will resolve as No.
Fine Print: Please note that Joe Biden releasing his delegates is not enough by itself to qualify for a Yes resolution. There must be a definitive, public, official statement that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2024.
|
2024-07-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-29T15:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25874
|
Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?
|
The Tour de France is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The 2024 edition of the race started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.
Historical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the time gap in the inidividal general ranking at the end of the 2024 Tour de France as reported on the offiical site.
|
2024-07-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-23T19:37:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25873
|
Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?
|
According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME): > Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.
This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME. The reported number for Aug 2024 must be greater than the reported for Aug 2023.
Fine Print: The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question, later updates or revisions will be immaterial.
|
2024-07-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-06T14:02:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25872
|
Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?
|
The UEFA European championship is a football tournament held among the men's national teams of EUFA's European members every four years.
UEFA Euro 2024, the 17th edition, is scheduled to take place from June 14 to July 14, 2024.
24 countries will compete in it in six groups. Two countries per group will directly advance to the knockout stage. Out of the six countries getting the third place in their respective group, four will also advance to the knockout stage. The exact rules which countries will advance and what tiebreakers decide can be found here.
The 16 countries advancing past the group stage will play against each other in the knockout stage.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the total number of goals scored in the two semi-final matches scheduled for July 9, 2024 and July 10, 2024. Any goals in a penalty shootout will not count.
|
2024-07-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-10T19:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25871
|
On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?
|
Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.
On May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on July 17, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to Companies Market Cap, when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).
Fine Print: * If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.
|
2024-07-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-09T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-18T23:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25850
|
Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?
|
**Deadpool & Wolverine** is an upcoming blockbuster by Marvel Studios scheduled to be released on July 26, 2024 featuring the two iconic heroes from the X-Men Universe.
The recent projection from Deadline puts the domestic opening to [$160-$165 million](https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-opening-projection-1236000799/), which would not only be the best opening year-to-date (beating **Inside Out 2** with $154 million) but also a record start for an R-rated movie.
Another projection from June was even higher, [at $200+ million](https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545/).
The ticket seller Fandango [reported on May 21](https://www.gamespot.com/articles/deadpool-and-wolverine-has-strongest-day-one-ticket-pre-sales-in-franchise-history-at-fandango/1100-6523599/) that their ticket pre-sales for the movie were the site's biggest ones in 2024 up to date.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office opening for the **Deadpool & Wolverine** reported by Boxofficemojo on the [movie's page](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) is higher than $185,548,391 which is the sum of the box openings for **Deadpool** (2016) and **The Wolverine** (2013): $132,434,639 + $53,113,752.
Fine Print: Metaculus admins may wait additional time or use another resolution source if there are reasons to doubt the data on the Boxofficemojo page.
If the movie is not released in the US until 26 August 2024 the question will become **annulled**.
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-25T10:00:00Z
|
2024-07-29T14:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25791
|
Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?
|
[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a "government-designated monopoly over domain registration." According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):
>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It’s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.
>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.
The Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.
According to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden’s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the *.com* generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: "Sunsets" is defined as the DOC choosing to let the agreement expire without renewal.
"Terminates" is defined as the DOC providing written notice of non-renewal
of the agreement with Verisign.
|
2024-07-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-01T16:00:00Z
|
2024-08-05T14:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25769
|
Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?
|
60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).
In [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), "For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies." Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) "It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024
|
2024-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
2024-07-08T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T13:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25767
|
Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?
|
In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions:
| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |
|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|
| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |
| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |
| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |
| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |
| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |
On paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline.
However, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as "[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html)," there was a widespread "freak out" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that "One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/).
Initial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.
See Also
Pew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />
US News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />
Wikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />
The Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.
|
2024-07-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-08-06T16:00:00Z
|
2024-08-06T13:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25755
|
Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?
|
As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.
On June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated.
Biden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term.
In [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate.
As of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.
On June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):
>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.
>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.
To qualify for a **Yes** resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.
If such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that Joe Biden releasing his delegates is not enough by itself to qualify for a Yes resolution. There must be a definitive, public, official statement that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2024.
|
2024-07-01T11:00:00Z
|
2024-07-13T23:00:00Z
|
2024-07-15T04:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25753
|
Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?
|
Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th, Iran is holding new elections. After clerics vetoed several of the candidates, the ones allowed to run faced off on June 28th.
The very low turnout first round saw relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili advance to the runoff with 44% and 40% of the votes, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if Masoud Pezeshkian is announced as the winner of the 2024 Iranian presidential election, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) or the [IRNA](https://en.irna.ir/) agency. It will resolve **No** if Jalili wins.
If some outcome happens that is not one of the candidates being announced as the winner, the question will be **Annulled**.
Fine Print: The question will also be annulled if a winner is not announced before July 21st.
The winner need not be inaugurated, only a winner being declared in the election is required.
|
2024-06-29T18:00:00Z
|
2024-07-04T23:00:00Z
|
2024-07-06T05:54:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25749
|
Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?
|
On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast).
Ukraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:
>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.
>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.
Please see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024:
48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
If this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)
2. Scroll down to the interactive map.
3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.
4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
This question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:
- Assessed Russian Control
- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine
- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine
This question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:
- Areas with no coloration
- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.
Fine Print: * The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.
* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for "48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E".
- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z
|
2024-10-01T14:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25743
|
Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?
|
On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).
With respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions
by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as "punishment" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.
Since the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called "Taiwan independence separatists."
In late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included "[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.
Fine Print: * Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).
* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.
* "Armed conflict" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
|
2024-07-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T16:00:39.575000Z
|
2024-10-01T15:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25706
|
Will exactly 2 or 3 Starship launches reach low-Earth orbit by Sept 30, 2024?
|
SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.
In 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.
On March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.
In the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted "Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as the number of SpaceX Starship launches that reach low-Earth orbit, defined as achieving an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, by Sept 30, 2024.
The resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.
Fine Print: - In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.
|
2024-07-02T00:00:00Z
|
2024-07-03T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-14T20:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25704
|
Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach low-Earth orbit by Sept 30, 2024?
|
SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.
In 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.
On March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.
In the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted "Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as the number of SpaceX Starship launches that reach low-Earth orbit, defined as achieving an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, by Sept 30, 2024.
The resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.
Fine Print: - In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.
|
2024-06-30T00:00:00Z
|
2024-07-01T00:00:00Z
|
2024-07-04T21:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25702
|
Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?
|
In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.
The ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
See Also
Base rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as No otherwise.
Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)
Yoav Gallant (Defense Minister)
Herzi Halevi (IDF Chief of Staff)
Fine Print: A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.
Secret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.
|
2024-06-28T00:00:00Z
|
2024-06-29T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T04:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25700
|
Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?
|
60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).
In [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), "For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies." Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) "It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024
|
2024-06-26T00:00:00Z
|
2024-06-27T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T10:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25520
|
Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?
|
[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of [Reform UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK?useskin=vector) since June 2024, having previously been the leader of [UK Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party) and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.
In the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of [Clacton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in Essex.
In the most recent general election in 2019, the Conservative Party candidate, Giles Watling, won the seat with 72.3% of the vote, and is standing for re-election. However, recent polling suggests that Farage is favoured to win the constituency.
The Times: [Nigel Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6)
>Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.
>The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.
>Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Reform would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event that in the 2024 UK general election held on July 4, 2024, Nigel Farage is elected as the member of parliament (MP) for any UK constituency. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur, unless the general election is cancelled or postponed beyond July 4 2024, in which case the question will be **annulled**.
Resolution should cite credible media reports from the BBC, the Times, the Financial Times, the Guardian, or other major UK news sources; or the official announcement of the returning officer for any constituency in which Nigel Farage is a candidate.
Farage need not be sworn in as an MP for the question to resolve as **Yes** -- this question resolves on the basis of his election or non-election.
|
2024-06-20T11:00:00Z
|
2024-07-04T11:00:00Z
|
2024-07-04T22:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25513
|
On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?
|
According to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638024000012/gme-20240203.htm), Gamestop is a specialty retailer with 4,169 physical stores, offering games, entertainment products and technology. In the year ended December 31, 2023, it made $6.7 million in net income with $5.27 billion in revenues. Its revenues were *down* 11% year over year.
According to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261333/000126133324000045/docu-20240131.htm), Docusign offers contract lifecycle management software and the world's leading electronic signature product. In the year ended January 31, 2024, it made $73.98 million in net income with $2.76 million in revenues. Its revenues were *up* 9.8% year over year.
As of June 18, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap reported a market capitalization of $10.52 billion for GameStop compared with $10.43 billion for DocuSign.
See Also
Fox Business: [GameStop meme stock mania is SEC’s bad dream on repeat | GameStop shares have advanced over 100% this quarter](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gamestop-meme-stock-mania-secs-bad-dream-repeat)
AP: [Gamestop shares slump following annual shareholder meeting](https://apnews.com/article/gamestop-stock-annual-shareholder-meeting-db6785418358f3446e343d1b6647604d)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on Friday June 28, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap shows a greater market cap for Gamestop than Docusign, when checked by Metaculus after 4:00 PM EDT (8:00 PM UTC). If CompaniesMarketCap shows a greater market cap for Docusign than Gamestop, this question resolves as **No**.
- Gamestop's page can be accessed [here](https://companiesmarketcap.com/gamestop/marketcap/).
- Docusign's page can be accessed [here](https://companiesmarketcap.com/docusign/marketcap/).
Fine Print: In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be the company ranked higher by CompaniesMarketCap (i.e, "most valuable company by market cap according to our data"). If it continues to be a tie, the next tiebreaker will be alphabetical order (which in this case means Docusign).
If the CompaniesMarketCap website is inaccessible by Metaculus Admins from 4:01 PM EDT until 11:59 PM EDT on June 28, 2024, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-06-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-06-28T00:00:00Z
|
2024-06-28T22:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25499
|
Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?
|
Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes).
After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly, but transit remained, and agreements [were renewed](https://www.naftogaz.com/en/news/naftogaz-gtsou-and-gazprom-signed-a-set-of-agreements-to-ensure-russian-gas-transit-over-the-next-five-years) in 2019 for five years. Even the Russia-Ukraine war didn't stop the flow, although transit levels dropped by [an order of magnitude](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/) since its heights in 2008.
The current bilateral agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the Ukraine government said [it doesn't plan to extend or renew it](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plan-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/). However, Ukraine remains reliant on Russian natural gas, which is still bought via [virtual reverse flow](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/ukraine-launches-virtual-gas-reverse-flow-slovakia.html). Replacing it with actual reverse flow requires large capital investments, and it is not clear if infrastructure can be prepared in time.
Resolution Criteria: This questions resolves *Yes* if credible sources report that Gazprom (or its successor) and Naftogaz/Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) (or the entity that owns the Ukrainian gas transit system at the time) has:
- prolonged the current 5-year agreement, or
- signed a new agreement
before January 1, 2025, which allows Gazprom to transit gas through Ukraine to a point outside of Ukraine. If no such report is made before January 1 , 2025, this question resolves as *No*.
Fine Print: * The agreement must have a length of at least 1 year to count. An agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian governments would also count towards resolution of this question.
* An agreement must be bilateral, transit of gas produced in 3rd countries does not count.
* Two separate agreements, one with Ukraine and a 3rd party and a second one with Russia and a 3rd party, does not count.
* A 'swap' of gas with a 3rd party gas producer does not count.
* Ukraine must be contracted by Russia to provide the gas transport service and Russia must pay Ukraine the transit fees.
|
2024-06-22T11:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T09:00:00Z
|
2025-01-09T18:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25488
|
Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?
|
Related Metaculus question: [Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17180/deepfake-costs-election-before-2025/)
Both candidates have recently had exposure to the subject:
- In his interview with Youtube podcaster Logan Paul on June 13, 2024, Donald Trump [discussed](https://youtu.be/xrFdHO7FH8w?si=f-f0AMwAt_S0F5pB&t=2741) deepfakes, describing them as "disconcerting" and "alarming," although avoiding specific usage of the word.
- Joe Biden's press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on June 10, 2024, [described](https://wcyb.com/news/nation-world/white-house-claims-recent-viral-videos-of-biden-are-actually-deepfakes-president-joe-biden-karine-jean-pierre-normandy-france-apulia-italy-g7-summit-2024-election-politics) viral videos of Joe Biden appearing confused as "deepfakes."
CNN's current plans are for the debate to be [moderated by](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html) Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It will be 90 minutes, with two commercial breaks.
See also:
Washington Post [AI deepfakes threaten to upend global elections. No one can stop them.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/23/ai-deepfake-election-2024-us-india/)
[Purdue profs show how deepfakes could impact 2024 presidential election](https://www.wishtv.com/news/i-team-8/purdue-profs-show-how-deepfakes-could-impact-2024-presidential-election/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if during the broadcast of the presidential debate held by CNN scheduled for June 27, 2024, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or one of the moderators utters the word "deepfake." If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.
Determination of whether one of the candidates or moderators has uttered "deepfake" will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus's Admins. They will be the sole deciders of whether this has happened or not, and their decision will be final. In cases of ambiguity they may consult CNN's official transcript, typically posted at [transcripts.cnn.com](https://transcripts.cnn.com/). It's important to note, however, that in the absence of a clear utterance of the word, especially if it does not appear in the transcript, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Other forms of the word such as plural, possessive, or gerund will count, as long as the rootword is used (for example "deepfakes" or "deepfaking").
Discussion of the subject matter, without actually using the word, will not count.
The debate is expected to be held on June 27, 2024. In the case of a slight delay in the debate being held, resolution will wait up to a few days. However, if CNN does not host a US presidential debate before July 1, 2024, this question will be annulled.
According to the rules memo [circulated by CNN](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/us/politics/trump-biden-debate-rules.html), “Microphones will be muted throughout the debate except for the candidate designated to speak.” If the word "deepfake" is said, for example by a muted candidate, but it is not caught on mic or in CNN's transcript, it will not count.
Mentions of "deepfake" by anyone other than Trump, Biden, or the moderators will not count.
Mentions of the word before the debate has begun or after it has ended will not count.
|
2024-06-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-06-28T00:00:00Z
|
2024-06-30T16:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25416
|
Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?
|
On June 11, 2024, Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, [was convicted](https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-gun-trial-federal-charges-delaware-5dd8a9380235c6360a1ddb691ef24a06) of all three felony charges stemming from falsely certifying he was not illegally using or addicted to controlled narcotics.
President Biden [said "Yes"](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-tells-muir-wouldnt-pardon-son-hunter/story?id=110904482) to both questions when asked by ABC News whether he would accept the court's ruling and whether he would rule out pardoning Hunter. Regarding the question of whether Biden would commute the sentence of his son, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was non-committal, [saying](https://apnews.com/article/president-joe-biden-hunter-gun-conviction-commutation-ed69379b56bd1d63f3ddd0d79438746c) "I just don’t have anything beyond that" in response to a question on the topic.
Joe Biden's first term ends on January 20, 2025, and if he loses the election, it is the last day on which he can grant clemencies. Through June 12, 2024, Biden had issued 24 pardons and 129 commutations to individuals, according to the DOJ's databases. Additionally, on October 6, 2022, he issued a [proclamation](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/presidential-proclamation-marijuana-possession) offering a blanket pardon to anyone convicted federally or in Washington, D.C., for crimes related to marijuana possession, which covered over 6,500 individuals, [according to](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/biden-to-pardon-all-prior-federal-offenses-of-simple-marijuana-possession-.html) the White House.
If President Biden wins a 2nd term and does not grant clemency to Hunter before January 21, 2025, this question will likely be renewed for his 2nd term, depending on forecaster interest.
Resolution Criteria: If Joe Biden grants any clemency to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025, this question resolves as **Yes**. If this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
The President of the United States's clemency actions consist of either pardons of people or commutations of their sentences. This question therefore resolves based on these two databases from the Department of Justice:
1. [Pardons Granted](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present)
2. [Commutations Granted](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/commutations-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present)
If those resources are unavailable but the pardon or commutation unambiguously happened (for example in the case of a blanket pardon which covers Hunter Biden in its scope, discussed in the Fine Print), then this question may resolve based on other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: In case of partial pardons or clemencies (for example if Hunter Biden is pardoned for one charge but not the others), this question still resolves as Yes.
Clemency will only count if it is publicly disclosed. Therefore, secret pardons will not count unless they are publicly disclosed before January 21, 2025.
If a wide-reaching blanket pardon or commutation proclamation includes Hunter Biden within its scope, then this question will resolve as Yes. For example, in October 2022 Joe Biden issued a [proclamation](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/presidential-proclamation-marijuana-possession) that "announced a full, unconditional, and categorical pardon for certain prior federal and D.C. offenses of simple possession of marijuana." To take a hypothetical example based on this, if President Biden pardons all firearms purchasers who were unlawful users of or addicted to controlled substances, which is one of the [felony charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weiss_special_counsel_investigation#Special_counsel_and_firearm_indictment) for which Hunter was convicted, then this would resolve as Yes.
|
2024-06-18T11:00:00Z
|
2025-01-19T17:00:00Z
|
2024-12-01T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-25125
|
Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?
|
The 2024 presidential election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/irans-khamenei-confirms-mohammad-mokhber-as-interim-president) First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim head of government and mandated a snap election within 50 days.
Iran's [Guardian Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council), a 12-member body responsible for (among other functions) vetting electoral candidates, plays a crucial role in Iran’s political landscape. Comprising six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the head of the judiciary (also appointed by the Supreme Leader), the Council has a history of disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates.
[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad), who served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013, has registered as a candidate in the snap election. His tenure was marked by controversy with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he was subsequently disqualified by the Guardian Council from running in the 2017 and 2021 elections.
The Guardian Council has [indicated](https://iranwire.com/en/politics/130202-irans-guardian-council-aims-to-speed-up-vetting-of-presidential-candidates/) that it will announce its list of approved candidates on June 11.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is included in Iran's Guardian Council's list of qualified presidential candidates for the upcoming presidential election.
Fine Print: * If the Guardian Council does not publish its list of approved candidates before June 27, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-06-07T14:30:00Z
|
2024-06-11T06:59:00Z
|
2024-06-09T13:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24813
|
Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?
|
The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies.
However, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.
The 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance secures more seats than any other single party or coalition, thereby maintaining the highest number of Hungarian seats in the European Parliament, according to credible sources.
Fine Print: - This question will resolve based on the official results as published by the National Election Office of Hungary or reported by other credible sources.
- The resolution will consider the total number of seats won by the Fidesz-KDNP alliance versus other parties or coalitions.
- The election date is set for June 9, 2024. If the elections are postponed, the timeline for this question will be adjusted to reflect the new election date.
- Only the official announcement of the number of seats won is required for this question to resolve; the actual taking of seats or inauguration of MEPs is not necessary.
|
2024-06-02T13:00:00Z
|
2024-06-10T03:59:00Z
|
2024-06-11T22:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24811
|
Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?
|
South Africa's 2024 national election, held on May 29, is highly contested, with the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) potentially losing its majority in Parliament for the first time in 30 years. The president of South Africa is elected by Parliament, specifically the National Assembly, requiring a simple majority of 201 out of 400 lawmakers. Due to the [ANC's declining support](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320), coalition talks are anticipated, which could delay the election of the president.
The results of the national election held on May 29, 2024, are expected to be announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) by the Sunday following the election, and the new Parliament [must hold its first session within 14 days of the announcement of the election results](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the South African National Assembly officially elects a president before July 1, 2024, according to reports from credible sources.
Fine Print: * The president need not be inaugurated before the date of resolution, only the announcement that a vote has been held successfully selecting a new president-elect is required.
* The appointment of an acting president does not qualify, only a president officially elected by Parliament counts.
|
2024-06-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-01T03:59:00Z
|
2024-06-14T22:47:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24806
|
On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?
|
Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.
On May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).
Fine Print: * If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.
|
2024-06-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-06-27T20:00:00Z
|
2024-06-28T20:10:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24802
|
Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?
|
On May 30th, 2024, a jury found Donald Trump guilty on [all 34 felony counts]((https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/donald-trump-verdict-hush-money-trial-rcna152492)) in the "hush money" case in New York, making Trump the first American president to be convicted of a felony.
Following the verdict, Trump and his supporters [claimed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/shameful-republicans-quickly-trumps-defense-after-conviction/story?id=110693679) the trial was biased and politically motivated, and indicated their intention to immediately appeal.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if, prior to November 5th, 2024, credible sources report that Donald Trump has successfully appealed one or more of the 34 felony counts in the "hush money" case.
Fine Print: * "Successful appeal" means an official judicial decision, by any appellate court having jurisdiction, that overturns, vacates, or otherwise nullifies an original guilty verdict on any of the 34 felony counts for which Donald Trump was convicted. This includes decisions to modify the verdict.
|
2024-05-31T04:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T06:59:00Z
|
2024-11-05T05:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24753
|
[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?
|
Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.
As a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):
>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.
>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.
Aside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:
- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.
- Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.
During significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):
>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.
The two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.
---------------------
See related question:
[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) releases a statement explicitly advising Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's pay package at the 2024 Tesla shareholder meeting OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk to the Tesla board of directors. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: If no statement is released by ISS prior to the [2024 Tesla Stockholder Meeting](https://www.tesla.com/2024shareholdermeeting) being held, the question will resolve as **No**.
The 2024 Tesla Stockholder Meeting is currently scheduled for June 13, 2024. If it is postponed beyond June 20, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-05-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-06-12T22:00:00Z
|
2024-05-31T02:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24622
|
Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?
|
[Rishi Sunak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak?useskin=vector), born 12 May 1980, is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. Sunak has been Member of Parliament for [Richmond (Yorks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector) since 2015.
In the most recent general election in 2019, [Sunak won his seat](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector#Elections_in_the_2010s) with 63.6% of the vote; the nearest competitor was the Labour Party candidate on 16.4% of the vote.
Since 2019 the Conservative Party, in power since 2010, has seen a significant decline in its support according to [opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector#Graphical_summary); and as of late May 2024, it trails the opposition Labour Party by around 20 points.
[Sunak's personal approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) has been in negative territory for nearly his entire tenure as Prime Minister, and is [among the worst for any British Conservative or Labour leader](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader) in Ipsos data going back to 1978.
In May 2024 [Sunak called a snap general election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69050450), to be held on July 4.
Sunak is expected to contest the constituency of [Richmond and Northallerton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_and_Northallerton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in the July 4 election, which was created following the [2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies?useskin=vector).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if for any reason Rishi Sunak fails to be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK general election.
If Sunak is elected as a Member of Parliament for any constituency in the July 4 2024 UK general election, this question will resolve as **No**.
Resolution should cite [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports, or an official announcement from the returning officer of the constituency in which Sunak is a candidate (if he is a candidate in any constituency).
|
2024-05-30T12:00:00Z
|
2024-07-04T11:00:00Z
|
2024-07-04T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24329
|
Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?
|
China has escalated military tensions with Taiwan, launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as "punishment" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024.
Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 6th, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China or Taiwan as a result of armed conflict between the two parties.
Fine Print: * Auxilary forces under the control of either government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).
* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.
* "Armed conflict" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and Taiwan. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
|
2024-05-24T14:00:00Z
|
2024-06-06T06:00:00Z
|
2024-06-07T12:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24321
|
Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?
|
From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends)
This record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)
As of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2σ level of the 1982-2011 mean.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the ["Daily Sea Surface Temperature, North Atlantic" chart](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)—accessible when choosing "North Atlantic" from the "Area Selection" dropdown menu at the link—shows the 2024 line graph surpassing 2023's peak temperature record of 25.4 C set on August 31, 2023, for any day before October 1, 2024. The question will resolve when the data for September 30 is first available on the chart and accessed by Metaculus.
Fine Print: ClimateReanalyzer's chart runs on a 1-to-2 day lag. Secondly, all data is preliminary for two weeks. For the sake of this question, we are using the preliminary data for the resolution.
|
2024-07-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-15T16:00:00Z
|
2024-10-07T23:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24302
|
Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?
|
Violence and unrest have been on the rise in Haiti, resulting in former Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry being blocked from returning to his country and eventually resigning in March of 2023. A [multinational mission](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/05/1149831) to provide security assistance has been in the works since 2023. Forces from Kenya's [General Service Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Service_Unit_(Kenya)) (GSU), a branch of the [Kenya Police Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Police) are [planned to deploy to Haiti](https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/green-light-for-kenyan-police-boots-on-the-ground-in-haiti/) as part of this effort. However, the deployment of the Kenyan police has faced several setbacks, including [legal challenges](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-lawyers-ask-court-hold-government-contempt-planned-police-deployment-2024-05-17/) and [political opposition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/28/kenya-plan-deploy-police-haiti) in Kenya.
On May 22, 2024, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/americas/kenya-haiti-delegation-intl-latam/index.html) that Kenyan officials had arrived in Haiti to assess readiness to receive the Kenyan police forces, who are scheduled to arrive by the end of the month. However, [recent reporting has also suggested the potential for additional delays](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/kenya-police-deployment-haiti-faces-130709387.html).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after May 22, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel have arrived in Haiti.
Fine Print: * In the event that credible sources report that Kenyan police have arrived in Haiti but a number is not given and there is no indication as to the size of the deployment (such as "hundreds", "over 100", or "approximately 30") the question will be **annulled**.
* If reporting is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may use its judgment to resolve the question or resolve the question as **ambiguous**.
|
2024-05-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-05-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-06-03T16:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24194
|
Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?
|
[[Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections)]
All 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one. If the delegation has two members or more, States are divided into single-member districts. Most states elect their representatives by the plurality method, where voters cast a vote for one candidate and the one with the highest number of votes wins.
The U.S. has a strong two-party system, with the Republicans (GOP) and Democrats taking center stage in the country's political life and other parties having little influence.
Of the past 10 House elections, in 3 of them the party winning the popular vote across all districts did not win the majority of House seats:
| Election | Popular vote won by GOP | Seats won by GOP (out of 435) |
|----------|-------------------------|------------------------|
| 2022 | 50.6% | 222 |
| 2020 | 47.2% | 213 |
| 2018 | 44.8% | 199 |
| 2016 | 49.1%* | 241* |
| 2014 | 51.2% | 247 |
| 2012 | 47.7%* | 234* |
| 2010 | 51.7% | 242 |
| 2008 | 42.6% | 178 |
| 2006 | 44.3% | 202 |
| 2004 | 49.4%* | 232* |
*Election in which the popular vote winner did not achieve a House majority.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as YES if the total vote for GOP candidates for the House of Representatives in the 2024 US elections is the highest of any party, and NO otherwise. Credible sources can be used if the outcome is clear, but in case of doubts and disputes the ultimate official source is the [U.S. House of Representatives](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/) website.
Fine Print: Some states have somewhat different election methods, like jungle primaries, two-round runoffs and instant runoff by ranked choice ballot. To make resolution simple, this question just follows the methods used by the House to aggregate nationwide votes; however, since the last day of voting is potentially December 3 due to runoffs in Georgia, that is when the question closes.
If the GOP is tied for the most votes, this question resolves as NO.
|
2024-05-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-03T03:00:00Z
|
2025-01-18T17:03:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24037
|
Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?
|
The [International Seabed Authority (ISA)](https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/) describes itself as:
>an autonomous international organization established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
It describes itself as:
>[an] organization through which States Parties to UNCLOS organize and control all mineral-resources-related activities in the Area for the benefit of humankind as a whole.
This means the ISA controls regulations on [Deep Sea Mining (DSM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_sea_mining) which has slowly become a massively contentious issue between nations, NGOs, and companies due to the fact that, whilst DSM will potentially allow mining companies to access vast amount of minerals critical in the manufacturing of renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, and batteries, those who oppose DSM see it resulting in long-term harm to ecosystems already at risk due to environmental deviations arising from global warming.
The Secretary-General incumbent is the British national Michael Lodge who is seeking his third term in the upcoming July elections. Tood Woody, via Bloomberg describes his history at the ISA:
>Lodge’s candidacy emerged Sunday in a diplomatic note from ISA member state Kiribati, a small South Pacific island nation that announced it would sponsor Lodge’s nomination. Candidates for secretary-general are usually sponsored by their country of citizenship: The UK sponsored Lodge’s first term as secretary-general (though his election to a second term, which happened under a “silent procedure” during the Covid-19 pandemic, is less clear). Carvalho, an official with UN Environment Programme in Nairobi, was likewise put forth by Brazil’s delegate in March.
Notably, the UK was a signatory of a [memorandum](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-supports-moratorium-on-deep-sea-mining-to-protect-ocean-and-marine-ecosystems) against DSM. However, as noted in the above article, Lodge has found support of island nations - such as Kiribati - who stand to benefit immensely from DSM.
One DSM company - [The Metals Company (TMC)](https://metals.co) - has been a major supporter of DSM and has carried out extensive environmental studies supporting its position of allowing the practice. TMC has also carried out [pilot studies](https://metals.co/nori/) in the Clarion-Clipper Zone (CCZ) with Allseas' dedicated Deep Sea Mining Vessel "*Hidden Gem*" which were successful.
See also Southern Fried Science: [International Seabed Authority gears up for a leadership challenge at the July meeting.](https://www.southernfriedscience.com/international-seabed-authority-gears-up-for-a-leadership-challenge-at-the-july-meeting/)
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve **Yes** if the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and/or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the incumbent Secretary-General Michael Lodge has been elected for a third term in the July elections. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.
Fine Print: - If Lodge does not stand in the July elections, for any reason, the question will resolve **No**.
- If the elections are moved or postponed until after July, the reorganised election result will be used to resolve the question.
|
2024-05-26T13:00:00Z
|
2024-07-01T11:00:00Z
|
2024-08-02T14:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24034
|
Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?
|
Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas.
China and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts.
For further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):
- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).
- The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.
- The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.
- The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.
If there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: “Diplomat" is defined using the LSData definition of [diplomatic agent](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent): "...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. Their job is to communicate with the government of the country they are in and promote their own country's interests."
|
2024-05-18T22:55:00Z
|
2024-07-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-08-01T04:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24033
|
Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?
|
On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlová. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.
Just a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, Ľuboš Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the ["liberal media"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.
Robert Kaliňák, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.
Outgoing Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.
To date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded ["Slovenskí Branci"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia.
Resolution Criteria: The question will be resolved as **YES** if [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Slovak media outlets or international news organizations report that a Slovak journalist or opposition politician has been criminally charged in connection with the assassination attempt.
Alternatively, the resolution will also be **YES** if relevant Slovak institutions (e.g., the public prosecutor's office, courts, police, and similar authorities) issue a statement to that effect.
Otherwise, the question will be resolved as **NO**.
Fine Print: _In connection with the assassination attempt_ is intentionally a broad description, which in this context represents for example:
- Commentary on the event or its aftermath.
- Direct or indirect involvement.
- Incitement of violence prior to or after the assassination attempt.
The charge must be related to the assassination attempt on Fico in order to count.
Only criminal charges announced before June 15, 2024, will count. Therefore any changes that are under seal or not publicly known before that date will not count.
"Journalist" is defined using the Wikipedia [definition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journalist): "a person who gathers information in the form of text, audio or pictures, processes it into a newsworthy form and disseminates it to the public."
"Opposition politician" is defined as anyone with a position in a Slovak political party that is not part of the ruling government of Slovakia, in other words not part of the ruling coalition of [Smer-SD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direction_%E2%80%93_Social_Democracy), [Hlas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voice_%E2%80%93_Social_Democracy), and [SNS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_National_Party).
|
2024-05-20T16:30:00Z
|
2024-06-14T21:59:00Z
|
2024-06-15T04:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-24020
|
Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?
|
Donald Trump and Joe Biden are [slated to debate at least twice](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/joe-biden-debate/index.html) during the 2024 election, and they already debated twice during the 2020 campaign. In neither of the 2020 debates did they [shake hands](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/trump-biden-debate-coronavirus-422040), due to the COVID pandemic. Details about the debate logistics have not been discussed by the Trump and Biden campaigns, and they have [substantial disagreements](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/15/biden-proposes-2-debates-with-trump-ditching-bipartisan-commission-00158082).
The virus is no longer a health concern, but each candidate has an [extreme dislike](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2024/02/01/what-biden-really-says-about-trump-behind-closed-doors-00139178) [of the other](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/gestapo-administration-trump-likens-biden-054542634.html) that may dissuade the campaigns from agreeing to a handshake. The candidates appeared to greet each other [somewhat cordially](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW1lY5jFNcQ&t=1758s) at the start of the 2020 debate, but a lot has changed since then.
Historically, there is a long tradition of handshakes at presidential debates starting with the two televised debates in 1960, with the streak [broken](https://time.com/4538640/handshake-presidential-debates/) at the 3rd debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: - "Shake hands" is defined using the Merriam-Webster [definition](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handshake): *a clasping usually of right hands by two people (as in greeting or farewell)*. Therefore other forms of greeting such as a fist bump, elbow bump, or hug will not count.
- If no debates are held, this question will be annulled.
- A handshake between the candidates at a non-debate event is not sufficient for a Yes resolution.
- The handshake must be clearly verifiable through photographic or video evidence. Without such evidence, the question resolves as No.
|
2024-05-22T11:00:00Z
|
2024-11-04T17:00:00Z
|
2024-11-25T18:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23877
|
Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?
|
On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration imposed [new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and other goods](https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c), with the EV tariffs increasing to a total level of 102.5% from the previous total of 27.5%. [Analysts have suggested](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/business/us-tariffs-ev-europe-china-trade/index.html) that the new tariffs may put pressure on the European Union (EU) to protect its own EV industry, as the US tariffs may effectively close off the US market, making the EU market more attractive to Chinese EV manufacturers.
The [European Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission) has been [conducting an anti-subsidy investigation of Chinese EVs](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/chinese-ev-imports-europe-might-need-to-impose-up-to-55percent-in-tariffs-.html) since [September 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-subsidy-investigation-into-chinese-electric-vehicles-2023-09-13/). The [investigation has a July 4 deadline](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752) to impose provisional anti-subsidy duties.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 5, 2024, credible sources report that the European Union (EU) has announced that new tariffs or duties will be imposed that would apply to imports of Chinese electric vehicles into the EU.
Fine Print: * New tariffs, duties or sanctions that apply to other countries or products also count, so long as they would apply to Chinese EVs as well.
* The tariffs or duties do not need to take effect before July 5, 2024, only an announcement is required.
* Tariffs or duties do not need to be related to the [ongoing anti-subsidy investigation](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752), new tariffs or duties on Chinese EVs imposed for any reason will qualify.
* Pre-notification of tariffs will count as an announcement of tariffs for the purposes of this question.
|
2024-05-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-07-04T22:00:00Z
|
2024-06-12T15:49:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23763
|
Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?
|
Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas.
China and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts.
For further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before June 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):
- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).
- The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.
- The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.
- The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.
If there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: “Diplomat" is defined using the LSData definition of [diplomatic agent](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent): "...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. Their job is to communicate with the government of the country they are in and promote their own country's interests."
|
2024-05-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-05-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-06-06T22:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23761
|
Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?
|
A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) (using the "Nowcast"). The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new variants [nicknamed](https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1767884323938869586?t=NM6QgCzjQYBje9-ZtyxSvg) as the FLiRT variants after the F456L + R346T spike protein where this variant shows changes. The new variants have raised concerns of a potential [summer COVID surge](https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240430/new-variant-sparks-summer-covid-surge-warning). The family of FLiRT variants [also includes](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/what-to-know-about-covid-flirt-variants) KP.2, KP.3, JN.1.7, JN.1.1, and KP.1.1. The "Nowcast" for the week ending May 11, 2024, currently shows the following proportions for those variants:
* KP.2: 28.2%
* KP.1.1: 7.1%
* Others are not prevalent enough to display
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, [CDC's variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) shows a combined weighted estimate for variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 in the United States are 75% or more of the variants sequence in any period ending between May 11, 2024, and September 28, 2024, inclusive.
Fine Print: * CDC currently reports two week periods, which will be used unless the reporting period changes. If the reporting period changes the new reporting period will be used. If multiple reporting periods are available the one nearest to the two week period will be used, as determined by Metaculus.
* This question resolves according to the "Weighted" estimate and will not use the "Nowcast" estimate.
* The HHS region used will be "USA".
* The central estimate reported will be used.
|
2024-05-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-28T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-08T16:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-23760
|
Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?
|
The 2024 elections for the Parliament of Catalonia were held on May 12th. The results of these elections will have a significant impact on the future governance of Catalonia.
The Catalan Socialists (PSC) emerged as the leading force in the elections, with more than 26% of votes on average. The two main pro-independence parties, Together for Catalonia (Junts) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), were in a tight battle for second place, and finally ERC lost with a 13 fewer deputies fall.
The People's Party (PP), the main party of the Spanish right, made a significant leap compared to the results achieved in 2021, winning around 10% of the votes. Other parties such as En Comú (or Comuns), Vox, and the Popular Unity Candidature (CUP) also received a notable percentage of votes.
The election results have set the stage for a range of possibilities for the future governance of Catalonia. Some sources suggest a repeat of the current pro-independence government, but there's no more majority in Parliament. However, the possibility of a repeat election also exists if a stable government cannot be formed.
The Catalan electoral system foresees that if, two months after the first investiture attempt of a candidate for President of the Generalitat (Gouvernement), investiture is not achieved, the Parliament automatically dissolves, and new elections are called.
More Info
BBC: [Spain Socialists win Catalan vote as separatists lose ground(]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69000823)
New York Times: [Spain’s Socialists Win Catalan Vote Dominated by Amnesty for Separatists](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/12/world/europe/spain-catalan-election.html)
[Four scenarios for resolving the investiture at the last minute](https://en.ara.cat/politics/four-scenarios-for-resolving-the-investiture-at-the-last-minute_1_3985389.html) (the last election (2021) that could ended in a new election.)
Resolution Criteria: This question will be defined in two possible ways:
1. Before January 1, 2025, there is a new elected President (the current one, Pere Aragonès, is in provisional functions and will cease to hold office once a new president is elected). Constitutionally, this situation would prevent elections for at least one year under any circumstances. In this case, the question will resolve as **No** immediately upon the new president being elected.
2. Before January 1, 2025, the automatic mechanism is activated due to lack of an invested president, and elections are called automatically by decree. The elections must be held before January 1, 2025, so the decree of convocation must be signed 52 days before, as required by Spanish law. In this case, the question will resolve immediately as **Yes**.
If no new elections are otherwise called before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: The Catalan electoral system foresees that if, two months after the first investiture attempt of a candidate for President of the Generalitat (Gouvernement), investiture is not achieved, the Parliament automatically dissolves, and new elections are called.
Resolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
|
2024-05-21T11:00:00Z
|
2024-12-30T11:00:00Z
|
2024-08-10T06:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13484
|
Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?
|
[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_Interactive) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.
In January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap) of nearly $50 billion.
Since that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 94%, and it has been dropped from the Nasdaq-100.
In November 2022, the company [reported disappointing earnings and guidance,](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/peloton-pton-reports-q1-earnings.html) with larger than expected losses in the last quarter, and predicting lower revenue in the important holiday quarter than analysts had anticipated.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if Peloton Interactive, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2024. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.
Only petitions filed by Peloton Interactive, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count
|
2022-11-12T08:00:00Z
|
2023-07-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13471
|
Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?
|
Israel is in the midst of an [ongoing political crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932022_Israeli_political_crisis). It had an [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election) on November 1, 2022., following another [election in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election). There has been continuous partisan gridlock over the [trial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu) of [Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu).
In the 2022 election, Netanyahu appears to have [won](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-set-comeback-says-brink-big-election-win-2022-11-02/) the election and looks set to return as Prime Minister. He is expected to form a government relying on the far-right and Haredi parties. Anshel Pfeffer [predicted](https://archive.ph/IoGLE) such a government would not be stable, perhaps leading to elections in the near future.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Israel holds an election before January 1, 2024, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Else, it resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Local elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2023 but scheduled for 2024 do not qualify. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2023.
|
2023-01-01T06:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13457
|
Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?
|
Hijab in contemporary Islam refers to a modest and conservative women's' dress code, and especially to a scarf which conceals the hair and neck. While many Muslim women adopt hijab voluntarily, some Muslim jurisdictions require and enforce it, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hijab_by_country#Iran),
> In Iran, since 1981, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the hijab has become compulsory. All women are required to wear loose-fitting clothing and a headscarf in public.
This law and [its enforcement by a kind of specialized Islamic vice squad called the Guidance Patrol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guidance_Patrol) has been a repeated flashpoint for unrest over decades. As of November, 2022, Iran was again gripped by [major anti-government protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests) triggered by the [killing of Mahsa (Jina) Amini by Guidance Patrol officers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Mahsa_Amini). Among the goals of the protests were the end of the mandatory hijab law in Iran.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if at any time between opening and the end of 2024, Iran has no nationwide enforcement body combining police powers with distinctive responsibility for Islamic modesty codes, such as the current Guidance Patrol. It will resolve **No** if the Guidance Patrol or another body retains both of these features continuously.
For the purposes of this question:
* Police powers means legal power to involuntarily detain a person in the course of official duties. It encompasses clear legal (or at least procedural) authority and does not include vigilantism, etc.
* Distinctive responsibility means that the enforcement body is primarily specialized towards enforcing Islamic law, maintaining the Islamic character of the Republic, and/or national-level regime security, and that if it has any other general law enforcement responsibilities of a nature that is not specifically Islamic or Islamic-regime-focused, these are subordinate. Thus transferring modesty enforcement to a mainstream policing agency would qualify as "disempowering" the Guidance Patrol
|
2022-11-19T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:29:00Z
|
2024-01-23T18:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13403
|
Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?
|
Currently the [possibility of Ukraine building and using a dirty bomb](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-us-chiefs-staff-discuss-risk-dirty-bomb-ukraine-ria-2022-10-24/) is being discussed. Russia [has accused](https://www.rt.com/russia/565249-russia-ukraine-dirty-bomb/) Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb, while NATO and Ukraine have [emphatically denied this](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-allies-warn-russia-against-dirty-bomb-plot-in-ukraine-11666622124).
A "dirty bomb" is [defined by the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/dirtybombs.htm) as the use of explosives to propel radioactive material to cause contamination with radioactive material. The bomb itself does not undergo nuclear fission.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the International Atomic Energy Agency officially reports that potentially dangerous levels of radiation have been released anywhere in Ukraine or Russia before 1 January 2024 (Kyiv time), and that the nature and/or circumstances of this release are more compatible with a "dirty bomb" than with any other scenario, such as an accident.
If there are no credible reports of a radiation incident in Ukraine or Russia before 2 January 2024, the question resolves as **No**, otherwise resolution may be delayed to allow time for an IAEA investigation to proceed, resolving as Yes or No according to the investigation results.
Only "dirty bombs" in the narrow sense, devices that scatter radioactive material by non-nuclear means, will be considered, excluding nuclear detonations whether successful or failed, intentional nuclear reactor meltdowns, etc
|
2022-10-29T04:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00Z
|
2024-01-04T17:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13176
|
Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?
|
Resolution Criteria: The Dnieper, or Dnipro, is a major European river that flows through the middle of Ukraine, discharging into the Black Sea in the South. The [Kakhovka dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Hydroelectric_Power_Plant), about 50 miles upstream of Kherson, interrupts its flow and creates the large [Kakhovka reservoir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Reservoir) on its upstream side.
As of late October 2022, Russian forces occupied the area of Kherson oblast and the Kakhovka dam, but were not expected to hold for long against the oncoming Ukrainian offensive. As evacuations and military preparations continued, the Russians [began accusing the Ukrainian side of plotting to attack the Kakhovka dam,](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19) which could cause massive flooding downstream. Some interpreted this as a preparatory move before Russia itself potentially demolished the dam and blamed Ukraine.
***Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before 1 May 2023?***
Resolves as **Yes** if the dam suffers a significant breach or failure at any time before 00:00 local 1 May 2023.
Resolves as **No** if available evidence shows the Kakhovka dam remains intact at 00:00 local time, 1 May 2023, and there are no confirmed reports of a previous significant breach or failure.
A "significant" breach or failure is defined as one that releases at least 0.2 cubic kilometres of water or 1% of the Kakhovka reservoir capacity, whichever is lower.
Metaculus Admins will use their best judgement and the best available sources in determining resolution, including reputable sources such as the Institute for the Study of War and similar analysts, especially those relying on publicly available commercial satellite photos.
|
2022-10-23T21:00:00Z
|
2023-04-30T20:59:00Z
|
2023-05-01T13:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13171
|
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/)
* [If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12776/which-ua-cities-contested-if-nuke-escalation/)
---
On February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), "I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), "We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces."
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine relinquished possession of the nuclear weapons it inherited upon signing the [Budapest Memorandum in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances). The Memorandum establishes security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK for Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, in return for those states to relinquish their nuclear weapons, which they did between 1993 to 1996. Following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainians have criticized the Budapest Memorandum. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said](https://news.am/eng/news/687674.html) on February 22, 2022:
> I am initiating consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. It was entrusted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs to convene them. If they do not take place again or if there are no security guarantees for our country as a result of them, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum does not work, and all package decisions of 1994 will be called into question
On September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying
>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before January 1, 2024. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Ukrainian territory will be defined as [internationally recognized prior to 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (that is, including Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, and the Luhansk Republic), including its 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear weapon" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called "[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)").
|
2022-10-21T22:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T16:24:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13119
|
Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?
|
On October 6, 2022 UK's National Grid published its winter outlook [report](https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/268346/download). In it, the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) outlines a scenario where combination of a reduced electricity imports from Europe and insufficient gas supply could break security of supply margins. Report then carries on:
> Should this scenario happen, it may be necessary to initiate the planned, controlled and
> temporary rota load shedding scheme under the Electricity Supply Emergency Code
> (ESEC). In the unlikely event we were in this situation, it would mean that
> some customers could be without power for pre-defined periods during a day –
> generally this is assumed to be for 3 hour blocks. This would be necessary to ensure
> the overall security and integrity of the electricity system across Great Britain. All
> possible mitigating strategies would be deployed to minimise the disruption.
National Grid's Gas Transmission published its own winter outlook, as reported by [reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/britain-could-face-forced-power-cuts-this-winter-national-grid-warns-2022-10-06/):
> "The potential for a shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe could have a range of knock-on impacts in Great Britain, creating risks around the ability of GB to import from continental Europe," National Grid's Gas Transmission (NGGT) arm said in a separate Gas Winter Outlook.
>
> The gas outlook said Britain’s ability to secure supply would depend upon its gas prices being high enough to continue to attract exports from Europe and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as Qatar and the United States.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the period starting from 14 October 2022 to 20 March 2023, UK will initiate any of the rota load shedding schemes under [Electricity Supply Emergency Code](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/995049/esec-guidance.pdf) (ESEC) or an updated version of it.
|
2022-10-23T04:00:00Z
|
2022-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2023-03-21T16:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12839
|
Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?
|
Below is an incomplete list of the possible sources of a hypothetical large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory:
* The Russian invasion in Ukraine could result in a nuclear disaster there (including a possible detonation of a tactical nuke). Depending on the scale of the disaster and the weather conditions, the nuclear material could reach Germany.
* Germany is a major NATO member and the largest economy of the EU, and thus is a primary target for Russia in the case of a global nuclear war.
* Some of the US-nuclear weapons [stationed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction) in Germany could cause a contamination (e.g. as in the [1950 accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1950_Rivi%C3%A8re-du-Loup_B-50_nuclear_weapon_loss_incident)).
* There are nuclear power plants in Germany, with more than [30](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernenergie_in_Deutschland) reactor blocks total Germany is also bordering several countries that have nuclear power plants.
* Terrorists (including state-sponsored terrorists) could use a "dirty bomb" for an attack in Germany.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory before January 1, 2024, according to credible media reports.
For the purpose of this question, we define "a large-scale contamination" as a radioactive contamination in Germany that resulted in any of these:
* There is an officially organized evacuation of at least 10,000 people.
* A population of at least 10,000 people is officially advised to shelter.
* The International Atomic Energy Agency classified the event as the Level 6 or Level 7 [INES](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale).
* The large scale of the destruction is beyond reasonable doubt (e.g. a nuclear weapon detonation near a German city)
|
2022-10-08T21:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12785
|
Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/) *[closed]*
----
3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), also known as the club drug 'Ecstasy,' has properties long recognized as potentially useful for medical psychotherapists. Most research to date on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy has focused on the treatment of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, where results are broadly very promising despite some known dangers and pitfalls.
In July 2022, [a letter from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services](https://maps.org/2022/07/27/statement-biden-administration-preparing-for-potential-fda-approval-of-mdma-assisted-therapy-for-ptsd/) was made public describing the Food and Drug Administration’s “anticipated approval…within approximately 24 months” of MDMA as a legally prescribed adjunct to psychotherapy for PTSD.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the FDA approves MDMA for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) by December 31, 2024
|
2022-10-04T04:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2025-01-05T00:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12733
|
Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?
|
On September 30, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted an "accelerated" application for Ukraine's membership in NATO. From Zelenskyy's [press statement](https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi-robimo-svij-viznachalnij-krok-pidpisuyuchi-zayavku-ukrayi-78173):
> We are de facto allies. This has already been achieved. De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO. De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.
> ...
> Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.
> We know it's possible. We have seen Finland and Sweden start accession to the Alliance this year without a Membership Action Plan.
> This is fair. This is also fair for Ukraine. This is the consolidation at the level of the treaty of what has already been achieved in life and what are our values.
> We understand that this requires the consensus of all members of the Alliance. We understand that it is necessary to reach such a consensus. And therefore, while this is happening, we offer to implement our proposals regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and all of Europe in accordance with the Kyiv Security Compact, which was developed and presented to our partners.
> Security has no alternatives. But determination is needed to guarantee it.
> We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.
Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath [said](https://www.axios.com/2022/09/30/zelensky-nato-accelerated-application-ukraine) "A speedy accession for Ukraine into NATO is unlikely."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ukraine is inducted as a full member of [NATO](https://www.nato.int/) before January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC. If Ukraine is officially accepted as on the path to full induction, but does not actually become a full NATO member before 2024, that will **not** be sufficient to resolve the question as Yes
|
2022-10-03T04:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12728
|
Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?
|
The Earth's ocean is a big place and its atmosphere is even bigger. Nevertheless, sometimes ships and airplanes of rival countries find themselves in very close proximity in the course of proving some point or other. The United States Navy, which [frequently transits through disputed zones to contest "excessive" territorial claims](https://www.state.gov/freedom-of-navigation-report-annual-release/), is particularly often on the wrong end of what it calls ["unsafe and unprofessional incidents"](https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/03/politics/navy-unsafe-encounters-china/index.html).
Occasionally, such incidents escalate from close intercepts and tense standoffs to outright physical collisions. [In 1988 a Soviet military vessel intentionally rammed the cruiser *Yorktown* in the Black Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Black_Sea_bumping_incident) in what has been called the last incident of the Cold War. There were several low-speed collisions between stalking submarines of Russia and the United States in the 1990s. Most notoriously, [in 2001 a hot-dogging Chinese fighter pilot accidentally collided with a US Navy surveillance aircraft he was intercepting,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident) leading to an emergency landing and a hostage-like standoff.
The invasion of Ukraine has started a new and more dangerous era in Russian-Western relations, marked by a return to Cold War levels of rhetoric and signaling. Indeed, [according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov,](https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1810694/) the situation may be more dangerous than during the height of the Cold War, for the lack of agreed-upon rules and restraints. Both sides are [intensifying naval activity in the Baltic](https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/news/hmcs-halifax-crew-seeing-lots-of-russian-warships-in-the-baltic-100720728/), while the [frequency of tense incidents around Polish airspace is said to be increasing](https://www.airforcemag.com/nato-intercepts-of-russian-aircraft-near-polands-skies-increasing/). Opportunities for miscalculation, or worse, may be multiplying.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves **Yes** if a consensus of credible sources report that a collision or ramming incident has occurred between a military aircraft or military vessel controlled by Russia or Belarus, and one controlled by NATO or a NATO country, before 2024. Otherwise resolves **No**
|
2022-11-02T04:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:59:00Z
|
2023-03-14T17:25:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-12569
|
Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?
|
The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a major logistics route for Russian forces in Crimea and adjacent portions of southern Ukraine.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if third-party [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Crimean Bridge:
* has been made impassable to effectively all automobile traffic OR to effectively all rail traffic
* for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2024
* via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source.
For the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to "knock out" the bridge itself
|
2022-10-02T22:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
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