id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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meta-26140 | Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before Sept 30, 2024? | The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence f... | 2024-07-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26139 | Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, dominate racing in distances 800m and longer. Will they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenj... | 2024-07-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-11T11:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26138 | Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED? | On July 5, 2024, this value was 1.3631. In the past 3 months, the high has been 1.3824, and the low has been 1.3493.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXCAUS) reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data
(FRED) database at the [DEXCAUS... | 2024-07-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-23T23:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26134 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024? | [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the se... | 2024-07-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26133 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024? | *The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*
---
[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the cur... | 2024-07-15T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:55:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26109 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-21T16:00:00Z | 2024-07-21T17:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26102 | Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15? | On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an u... | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-19T22:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26101 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024? | In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us... | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26100 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024? | [The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
As of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](... | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T19:56:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26099 | Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024? | Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NP... | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26098 | On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k? | The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. T... | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T19:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26097 | On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k? | The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. T... | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T19:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26096 | On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k? | The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. T... | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T19:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26095 | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥15 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as ... | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-11T16:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26084 | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023.
Current reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, althou... | 2024-07-14T12:00:00Z | 2024-11-01T19:00:00Z | 2024-11-22T23:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26024 | Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets? | After their 8-win 2023 season, the Denver Broncos cut Russell Wilson and drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th draft pick. They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if... | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-29T17:48:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26023 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024? | Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in ... | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26022 | Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant? | In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials ... | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T19:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26021 | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Usain Bolt's 9.63s Olympic record has stood since the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if the winning time of the men's 100m race is less than 9.63s. | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-04T20:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26020 | Will the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) exceed 316.000 for August 2024, according to FRED? | For May 2024, this value was 313.225. For August 2023, it was 306.187
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data
(FRED) database at the CPIAUCSL webpage exceeds 316.0... | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-11T12:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26019 | Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024? | SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth... | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26018 | Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024? | SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth... | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26017 | Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024? | SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth... | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T14:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26006 | Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New Yor... | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T18:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-26005 | Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New Yor... | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T18:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-26004 | Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New Yor... | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-17T18:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25993 | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | [Medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a fairly small number of countries; the United States alone has won about 1 out of every 6 medals ever awarded, and a total of ten countries account for the majority of medalists.
Conversely, prior... | 2024-07-27T18:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T11:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T06:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25992 | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | [Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.
Conversely, prio... | 2024-07-26T18:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T11:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T17:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25989 | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | [Tennis at the Olympics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics) has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** i... | 2024-07-28T03:59:00Z | 2024-08-04T06:00:00Z | 2024-08-04T23:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25988 | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. [These are](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/information/team-sports-how-can-your-team-qualify-for-the-paris-2024-olympics):
* Association foot... | 2024-07-29T00:00:00Z | 2024-08-04T13:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T15:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25984 | Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record for the men's pole vault at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record [has risen to 6.24m](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression), set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024. In 2020,... | 2024-07-27T11:00:00Z | 2024-08-03T05:00:00Z | 2024-08-05T21:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25983 | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have [athletes competing for multiple medals](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multiple_Olympic_medalists). American swimmer Michael Phelps, for example, would rank 41st all by himself in the medal table, compared with all countries competing in all Summer... | 2024-07-27T03:45:00Z | 2024-08-11T06:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T16:16:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25982 | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as "the world's fastest man".
The [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usai... | 2024-07-26T12:00:00Z | 2024-08-04T07:45:00Z | 2024-08-04T20:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25981 | Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, [dominate racing in distances between 800m and the marathon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalenjin_people#Sport). It is estimated that 40% of the top honours available to men in international athletics at these distances (Olympic medals, World Championships medals, and World Cros... | 2024-07-28T13:30:00Z | 2024-08-10T06:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T10:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25960 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024? | On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25959 | Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024? | The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.l... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T19:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25958 | Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024? | The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.l... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T19:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25957 | Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024? | The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.l... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T19:36:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25956 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions we... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-23T11:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25955 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25954 | Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024? | After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.
The majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-202... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T11:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25953 | Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024? | After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.
The majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-202... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T11:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25952 | Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024? | After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.
The majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-202... | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-31T11:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25936 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024? | The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-an... | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25935 | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024? | After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous ca... | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25934 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024? | 60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been suppli... | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T15:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25933 | Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)
be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024? | According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.... | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-10T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T19:43:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25875 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), i... | 2024-07-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-29T15:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25874 | Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes? | The Tour de France is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The 2024 edition of the race started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France ... | 2024-07-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-23T19:37:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25873 | Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024? | According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME): > Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 mo... | 2024-07-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-06T14:02:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25872 | Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship? | The UEFA European championship is a football tournament held among the men's national teams of EUFA's European members every four years.
UEFA Euro 2024, the 17th edition, is scheduled to take place from June 14 to July 14, 2024.
24 countries will compete in it in six groups. Two countries per group will directly adva... | 2024-07-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-10T19:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25871 | On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought... | 2024-07-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-09T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-18T23:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25850 | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | **Deadpool & Wolverine** is an upcoming blockbuster by Marvel Studios scheduled to be released on July 26, 2024 featuring the two iconic heroes from the X-Men Universe.
The recent projection from Deadline puts the domestic opening to [$160-$165 million](https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-openin... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-25T10:00:00Z | 2024-07-29T14:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25791 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | [Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with ... | 2024-07-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-01T16:00:00Z | 2024-08-05T14:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25769 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024? | 60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been suppli... | 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-07-08T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T13:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25767 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions we... | 2024-07-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-08-06T16:00:00Z | 2024-08-06T13:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25755 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), i... | 2024-07-01T11:00:00Z | 2024-07-13T23:00:00Z | 2024-07-15T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25753 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th, Iran is holding new elections. After clerics vetoed several of the candidates, the ones allowed to run faced off on June 28th.
The very low turnout first round saw relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili advance to... | 2024-06-29T18:00:00Z | 2024-07-04T23:00:00Z | 2024-07-06T05:54:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25749 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.polit... | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z | 2024-10-01T14:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25743 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b... | 2024-07-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T16:00:39.575000Z | 2024-10-01T15:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25706 | Will exactly 2 or 3 Starship launches reach low-Earth orbit by Sept 30, 2024? | SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth... | 2024-07-02T00:00:00Z | 2024-07-03T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-14T20:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25704 | Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach low-Earth orbit by Sept 30, 2024? | SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth... | 2024-06-30T00:00:00Z | 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-07-04T21:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25702 | Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials ... | 2024-06-28T00:00:00Z | 2024-06-29T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T04:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25700 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024? | 60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been suppli... | 2024-06-26T00:00:00Z | 2024-06-27T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T10:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25520 | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | [Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of [Reform UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK?useskin=vector) since June 2024, having previously been the leader of [UK Independence Party](https://en.wikipedi... | 2024-06-20T11:00:00Z | 2024-07-04T11:00:00Z | 2024-07-04T22:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25513 | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | According to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638024000012/gme-20240203.htm), Gamestop is a specialty retailer with 4,169 physical stores, offering games, entertainment products and technology. In the year ended December 31, 2023, it made $6.7 million in net income with $5.27 bi... | 2024-06-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-06-28T00:00:00Z | 2024-06-28T22:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25499 | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_g... | 2024-06-22T11:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T09:00:00Z | 2025-01-09T18:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25488 | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Related Metaculus question: [Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17180/deepfake-costs-election-before-2025/)
Both candidates have recently had exposure to the subject:
- In his interv... | 2024-06-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-06-28T00:00:00Z | 2024-06-30T16:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-25416 | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | On June 11, 2024, Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, [was convicted](https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-gun-trial-federal-charges-delaware-5dd8a9380235c6360a1ddb691ef24a06) of all three felony charges stemming from falsely certifying he was not illegally using or addicted to controlled narcotics.
Presid... | 2024-06-18T11:00:00Z | 2025-01-19T17:00:00Z | 2024-12-01T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-25125 | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | The 2024 presidential election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https... | 2024-06-07T14:30:00Z | 2024-06-11T06:59:00Z | 2024-06-09T13:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24813 | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ... | 2024-06-02T13:00:00Z | 2024-06-10T03:59:00Z | 2024-06-11T22:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-24811 | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | South Africa's 2024 national election, held on May 29, is highly contested, with the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) potentially losing its majority in Parliament for the first time in 30 years. The president of South Africa is elected by Parliament, specifically the National Assembly, requiring a simple ma... | 2024-06-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-06-14T22:47:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-24806 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought... | 2024-06-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-06-27T20:00:00Z | 2024-06-28T20:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24802 | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | On May 30th, 2024, a jury found Donald Trump guilty on [all 34 felony counts]((https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/donald-trump-verdict-hush-money-trial-rcna152492)) in the "hush money" case in New York, making Trump the first American president to be convicted of a felony.
Following the verdict, Trump and ... | 2024-05-31T04:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T06:59:00Z | 2024-11-05T05:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24753 | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has ... | 2024-05-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-06-12T22:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T02:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-24622 | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | [Rishi Sunak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak?useskin=vector), born 12 May 1980, is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. Sunak has been Member of Parliament for [Richmond (Yorks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title... | 2024-05-30T12:00:00Z | 2024-07-04T11:00:00Z | 2024-07-04T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24329 | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | China has escalated military tensions with Taiwan, launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as "punishment" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a ... | 2024-05-24T14:00:00Z | 2024-06-06T06:00:00Z | 2024-06-07T12:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24321 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends)
This record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing... | 2024-07-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-15T16:00:00Z | 2024-10-07T23:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24302 | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Violence and unrest have been on the rise in Haiti, resulting in former Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry being blocked from returning to his country and eventually resigning in March of 2023. A [multinational mission](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/05/1149831) to provide security assistance has been in the works s... | 2024-05-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-05-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-06-03T16:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24194 | Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives? | [[Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections)]
All 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one... | 2024-05-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T03:00:00Z | 2025-01-18T17:03:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-24037 | Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections? | The [International Seabed Authority (ISA)](https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/) describes itself as:
>an autonomous international organization established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convent... | 2024-05-26T13:00:00Z | 2024-07-01T11:00:00Z | 2024-08-02T14:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24034 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in ... | 2024-05-18T22:55:00Z | 2024-07-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-08-01T04:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24033 | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlová. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at leas... | 2024-05-20T16:30:00Z | 2024-06-14T21:59:00Z | 2024-06-15T04:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-24020 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Donald Trump and Joe Biden are [slated to debate at least twice](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/joe-biden-debate/index.html) during the 2024 election, and they already debated twice during the 2020 campaign. In neither of the 2020 debates did they [shake hands](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/trump-bi... | 2024-05-22T11:00:00Z | 2024-11-04T17:00:00Z | 2024-11-25T18:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-23877 | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration imposed [new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and other goods](https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c), with the EV tariffs increasing to a total level of 102.5% from the previous total of 27.5%. [An... | 2024-05-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-07-04T22:00:00Z | 2024-06-12T15:49:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-23763 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in ... | 2024-05-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-05-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-06-06T22:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-23761 | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#varia... | 2024-05-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-28T22:00:00Z | 2024-11-08T16:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-23760 | Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024? | The 2024 elections for the Parliament of Catalonia were held on May 12th. The results of these elections will have a significant impact on the future governance of Catalonia.
The Catalan Socialists (PSC) emerged as the leading force in the elections, with more than 26% of votes on average. The two main pro-independenc... | 2024-05-21T11:00:00Z | 2024-12-30T11:00:00Z | 2024-08-10T06:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13484 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | [Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_Interactive) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming me... | 2022-11-12T08:00:00Z | 2023-07-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13471 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Israel is in the midst of an [ongoing political crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932022_Israeli_political_crisis). It had an [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election) on November 1, 2022., following another [election in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_... | 2023-01-01T06:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13457 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Hijab in contemporary Islam refers to a modest and conservative women's' dress code, and especially to a scarf which conceals the hair and neck. While many Muslim women adopt hijab voluntarily, some Muslim jurisdictions require and enforce it, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.... | 2022-11-19T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:29:00Z | 2024-01-23T18:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13403 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Currently the [possibility of Ukraine building and using a dirty bomb](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-us-chiefs-staff-discuss-risk-dirty-bomb-ukraine-ria-2022-10-24/) is being discussed. Russia [has accused](https://www.rt.com/russia/565249-russia-ukraine-dirty-bomb/) Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb, while NA... | 2022-10-29T04:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T21:59:00Z | 2024-01-04T17:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13176 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Resolution Criteria: The Dnieper, or Dnipro, is a major European river that flows through the middle of Ukraine, discharging into the Black Sea in the South. The [Kakhovka dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Hydroelectric_Power_Plant), about 50 miles upstream of Kherson, interrupts its flow and creates the larg... | 2022-10-23T21:00:00Z | 2023-04-30T20:59:00Z | 2023-05-01T13:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13171 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/)
* [If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?](https://... | 2022-10-21T22:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T16:24:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13119 | Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter? | On October 6, 2022 UK's National Grid published its winter outlook [report](https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/268346/download). In it, the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) outlines a scenario where combination of a reduced electricity imports from Europe and insufficient gas supply could break sec... | 2022-10-23T04:00:00Z | 2022-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2023-03-21T16:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12839 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Below is an incomplete list of the possible sources of a hypothetical large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory:
* The Russian invasion in Ukraine could result in a nuclear disaster there (including a possible detonation of a tactical nuke). Depending on the scale of the disaster and the weather cond... | 2022-10-08T21:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12785 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/) *[closed]*
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3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), also known as the club... | 2022-10-04T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2025-01-05T00:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12733 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | On September 30, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted an "accelerated" application for Ukraine's membership in NATO. From Zelenskyy's [press statement](https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi-robimo-svij-viznachalnij-krok-pidpisuyuchi-zayavku-ukrayi-78173):
> We are de facto allies. This has alread... | 2022-10-03T04:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-12728 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | The Earth's ocean is a big place and its atmosphere is even bigger. Nevertheless, sometimes ships and airplanes of rival countries find themselves in very close proximity in the course of proving some point or other. The United States Navy, which [frequently transits through disputed zones to contest "excessive" territ... | 2022-11-02T04:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:59:00Z | 2023-03-14T17:25:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-12569 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a maj... | 2022-10-02T22:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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