id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-4AQiCEtngDcXXWveyMIy | Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - will the Conservative party candidate win the seat? | Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect
This should lead to an imminent by-election.
Will the Conservative Party candidate win the seat?
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1... | 2023-06-09T08:32:38 | 2023-10-19T23:48:35 | 2023-10-19T23:48:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-znZsfOojq6kz8Z7W9iBc | Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 15th than it closed on June 14th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-06-09T08:31:18 | 2023-06-15T11:00:00 | 2023-06-15T14:18:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-I3qSg4L2UFSQeM7Sv4lX | Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Lib Dem candidate win the seat? | Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect
This should lead to an imminent by-election.
Will the Liberal Democrat candidate win the seat?
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7... | 2023-06-09T08:29:28 | 2023-10-19T23:49:12 | 2023-10-19T23:49:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jPbobjrp1ynbQpRUUOLW | Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Labour Party candidate win the seat? | Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect
This should lead to an imminent by-election.
Will the Labour Party candidate win the seat?
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7db83... | 2023-06-09T08:28:51 | 2023-10-19T23:51:06 | 2023-10-19T23:51:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pyZb1dOooEtu3RBns7rZ | Will the Green Party win any seats in England at the next general election? | At the last UK general election in 2019, the Green Party of England and Wales won 2.6% of the vote and one constituency: Brighton Pavillion. However, the current MP for Brighton Pavillion, Caroline Lucas, has announced that she is stepping down at the next general election, raising the possibility that the party will l... | 2023-06-09T07:02:15 | 2024-07-05T01:19:03 | 2024-07-05T01:19:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hA5WIaSZaFxgFI3EDFEF | Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2024? | Apple have announced their new AR device, the Apple Vision Pro:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Vision_Pro
Will Apple's launch kick off a new age of people finally using VR and AR devices? Or will it go away quietly like Google Glass (2013-2015)?
I generally walk around Zones 1 and 2 of London for at least 1-2 h... | 2023-06-09T03:51:23 | 2024-12-20T15:59:00 | 2025-01-04T03:33:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ti5toE64slB9MgfzSDBR | Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election? | Over the last month the far-right AfD has risen sharply in the polls.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
Is this a permanent change in Germany's political landscape?
[link preview] | 2023-06-09T03:27:53 | 2025-02-23T09:00:00 | 2025-02-23T22:04:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-l1G1guxUufEEfrmiEUWP | Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the Greens in Germany's next federal election? | Over the last month the far-right AfD has risen sharply in the polls.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
Is this a permanent change in Germany's political landscape?
[link preview] | 2023-06-09T03:26:16 | 2025-02-23T09:00:00 | 2025-02-23T11:01:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-csZGwYyzw3Pqa5lU1QR2 | Will Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all vote together in the 2024 presidential election? | These three states tend to have similar results, and all three have always voted for the same candidate in recent presidential elections. However, they are now very close swing states, leaving open the possibility that they might vote for different candidates, despite the correlation and similarity in their results. Th... | 2023-06-08T22:48:09 | 2024-11-07T14:32:07 | 2024-11-07T14:32:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XLM9fntPx2pYembWHgR8 | Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 POTUS election? | NH is generally considered a swing state, though Democrats have performed very strongly there in the last couple of elections. Will Republicans reverse that trend? | 2023-06-08T18:40:40 | 2024-11-06T06:14:30 | 2024-11-06T06:14:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gwWt6kX3xZjSTCAnqUbC | Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-08T18:37:02 | 2024-11-05T08:36:17 | 2024-11-05T08:36:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FKPXiIMfIvKKuCYbsbiE | Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 Republican National Convention? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-08T18:34:31 | 2024-07-18T19:36:47 | 2024-07-18T19:36:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eMSVh4OFeIeWeNqycHFL | Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 POTUS election? | Texas used to be seen as a solid red state, basically the Republican Party's California. That's not the case anymore, with Trump winning it by less than 6% in 2020. Democrats have dreamt of flipping it for a long time, and it is trending in that direction. However, most people think it's probably not getting bluer fast... | 2023-06-08T18:33:11 | 2024-11-06T06:16:29 | 2024-11-06T06:16:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C4Ixl41dhisGmWb1IOjp | Will a Republican win Nevada in the 2024 POTUS election? | Nevada has been a very close state in most recent elections. Will Republicans flip it in 2024? | 2023-06-08T18:23:55 | 2024-11-09T17:17:52 | 2024-11-09T17:17:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CgEfNwKbFyDUcVQPXguq | Will a Republican win Wisconsin in the 2024 POTUS election? | Wisconsin was the tipping point state for Biden's victory in 2020. But it was very close, within 1%. In 2022, it went red in the Senate election but blue in the governor's race, making it a very closely divided state. Will the Republican nominee flip it in 2024? | 2023-06-08T18:15:42 | 2024-11-05T23:24:42 | 2024-11-05T23:24:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y1ySu8oEeyvYWiBnMdqp | Will a Republican win Georgia in the 2024 POTUS election? | Georgia was the closest state last time. Will it flip back to the Republicans? | 2023-06-08T18:11:31 | 2024-11-05T23:25:26 | 2024-11-05T23:25:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3kNYmVwvc8aZQKMAre39 | Will Destiny talk to Trainwrecks again in June? | [markets] | 2023-06-08T16:05:23 | 2023-06-14T10:14:10 | 2023-06-14T10:14:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6oshTSVt0Cw9tTb4CaWc | Will Destiny talk to Erudite again in June? | [markets] | 2023-06-08T16:03:06 | 2023-07-01T19:28:30 | 2023-07-01T19:28:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7KfdkizQ3xKwDZdUtaS2 | Will Destiny talk to Ana Kasparian in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-06-08T16:01:53 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-12T05:07:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wA1Yz1EjU2ZyLJgYFkrc | 2023: Will Elon Musk cease to be the richest billionaire... AGAIN? | Will resolve to YES if at any point in 2023 after June 9, Elon Musk ceases to rank top #1 at Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.
Current toplist:
[image] | 2023-06-08T15:47:55 | 2023-06-27T13:54:22 | 2023-06-27T13:54:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h26KZv0OGLny8spawZfE | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on Labor Day? | Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on September 4, 2023. Resolves YES even if Jimmy Carter passes away on that day. | 2023-06-08T11:59:06 | 2023-09-04T18:25:19 | 2023-09-04T18:25:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mKjbldvkUnxfr6xpelrI | Will destiny talk to AOC before June 10th 2024? | This market will resolve to YES if destiny talks to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez before 2024/6/8 either on stream or in person. Only thing that wouldn't count is emails or text-based communication.
Maybe Brianna Wu will make it happen or they will meet at a political event or she plays Among Us again... | 2023-06-08T09:10:28 | 2024-06-09T14:59:00 | 2024-06-09T15:34:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KPtMsgnS8ofG3HdzGnEz | Will Lex Fridman tweet about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023? | YES = If Lex Fridman makes a standalone tweet/QT/thread that mentions Manifold Markets. (replies, likes, RTs won't count) | 2023-06-08T01:06:49 | 2024-01-03T21:58:26 | 2024-01-03T21:58:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6e5EmOizdIIXrZZH5Ibi | Will Lex Fridman share his market about interviewing Putin on Twitter? | YES = If Lex tweets, quote tweets or retweets a tweet that links to his market. (Likes won't count)
Link to the market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/LexFridman/will-lex-fridman-interview-vladimir-0cc5888760ac) | 2023-06-08T00:57:55 | 2024-01-01T18:00:00 | 2024-01-02T04:08:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J30y7ro4eP3n6KtGHv1X | Will a Lex Fridman market lead directly to an interview? | Prediction markets are incentive markets, a market 'will X happen' can lead to someone putting in work to make X happen.
If Lex Fridman makes a market that he will interview someone, will that lead, in a publicly stated way, to him doing an interview?
Resolves yes if it's acknowledged on the show, or in any other way ... | 2023-06-08T00:30:37 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T18:43:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-99sjwHLrUfTSPuHtQrJN | Will Lex Fridman make 10 markets in 2023? | Will https://manifold.markets/LexFridman create 10 markets in 2023?
He recently made his first market, will he have more questions he wants the answers to?
It does not have to be positively proven that it's Lex, by say a tweet.
Only if it's disproven that it's Lex, then it will resolve No. | 2023-06-08T00:11:44 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T18:42:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Nf9mgftSpeksPv67lTeK | Will Lex Fridman create at least 5 markets by the end of 2023? | Resolves based on @LexFridman's account. | 2023-06-07T23:23:25 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:48:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv | Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-07T22:38:15 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:33:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ppZHL3PY5PCXDHqJkquj | Will the 2024 election be closer than 2020? | This market will resolve YES if the winning candidate of the U.S. presidential general election's margins in any two of the following are smaller in 2024 than they were in 2020:
The Electoral College
The popular vote
The tipping point state
I am using a best 2 out of 3 system from these three metrics, since each of... | 2023-06-07T22:04:15 | 2024-11-10T19:37:02 | 2024-11-10T19:37:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fyVn1ySV9yfrulaYRjPI | Will AMZN reach $150 by any point by 2024? | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN
[link preview]I also hold mostly Amazon stock right now so I would hope this resolves yes | 2023-06-07T21:27:15 | 2023-12-14T14:24:26 | 2023-12-14T14:24:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S877GJ9772P7Gj38SKKQ | Will the Wagner group stop operating in Ukraine by the end of Jul 2023? | YES = if multiple reliable sources confirm that the Wagner group has ceased its operations in Ukraine entirely. Temporary halts to recuperate will not count.
The current consensus seems to be that Wagner Group are not involved in combat operations in Ukraine.
Based on the earlier survey, I will wait for a month after... | 2023-06-07T21:14:57 | 2023-08-01T00:09:27 | 2023-08-01T00:09:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IEOHwrF9NEuZ7CbzBpF5 | Will the cost of GPT-4 API decrease by the end of 2023? | FINAL UPDATE:
Everyone, I am deeply sorry for the way that I handled this market. When GPT-4 Turbo first released, I was inactive on Manifold and didn’t even realize that it could qualify to resolve the market. People took me not resolving it YES upon the release of GPT-4 Turbo as a sign that it wouldn’t count, and st... | 2023-06-07T17:25:10 | 2023-12-31T16:59:00 | 2024-01-01T17:54:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fwI8erZrSTALmWOLa7qu | Will RFK Jr win delegates from New Hampshire in the 2024 Democratic party primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-07T16:05:55 | 2024-02-05T15:59:00 | 2024-02-12T07:00:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jLe53Wo2iIAgqUcSVtkY | Will Twitch Prime be Gone in One Year? | Will Twitch Prime be Gone in One Year? Destiny predicted this today at 07-JUN-2023. Do you agree? | 2023-06-07T14:57:10 | 2024-06-07T20:59:00 | 2024-06-08T10:36:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UoHtx5bfAottpV98pzmU | Will Tucker Carlson's Google Trend interest be at least 3% any point in July 2024? | On August 5th, 2024, I'll check Google Trends for Tucker Carlson, in the United States, over the last 5 years.
This market resolves YES if for any week that includes July 2024, google shows a 3 or above for his interest.
Otherwise, it resolves NO.
[image]This market is one of several attempting to predict if Tucker ... | 2023-06-07T14:21:08 | 2024-08-06T07:57:25 | 2024-08-06T07:57:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uTiPzRMBvcCJGXHdlhn6 | Will Tucker on Twitter episodes in July 2024 average at least 50,000 likes? | On June 6th, Tucker Carlson posted the first episode of "Tucker on Twitter". As of writing this market on June 7th, the tweet is at 688,000 likes.
To resolve this market, on September 1st, 2024, I'll take all of the tweets from the @TuckerCarlson account posted in July 2024 that contain videos that are episodes of "Tu... | 2023-06-07T14:16:20 | 2024-09-01T23:59:00 | 2024-09-02T01:36:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SswIgqa9rJWitNyeVC41 | Will Messi join Inter Miami in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-07T08:54:32 | 2023-07-15T16:12:32 | 2023-07-15T16:12:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4nRk5v2TZbhDxDgYqGfD | Will AI wipe out humanity before the Q4 2023? | If humanity is still around on Oct. 1, 2023, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES. | 2023-06-07T08:34:03 | 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-10-01T05:40:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DaY3xRCHJQLsLomXgS13 | Will Andrew Ng start to take AI extinction risk seriously before 2024? | He seems to be open to changing his mind, will he?
https://twitter.com/AndrewYNg/status/1665759430552567810?s=20 | 2023-06-07T05:53:22 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T07:50:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HJBM5xs63Hg4gRT0udCW | Will the Republican candidate win every county in West Virginia in the 2024 presidential election? | Resolves to YES if the Republican candidate wins the most votes in every county in West Virginia in the 2024 US presidential election. They don't need to win a majority of the votes in each county, just more than any other candidate.
West Virginia was one of two states where Donald Trump won every county in the 2020 ... | 2023-06-07T05:20:41 | 2024-11-12T04:00:00 | 2024-11-15T10:59:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-E4SQ7EH9EWG7MKttiIEn | Will existential risk from AI be a topic during the 2024 US presidential debates? | resolves YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator or any of the candidates uses some combination of the following words in sequence:
extinction, existential, "death of our species," etc
artificial intellegence, AI, machine learning,... | 2023-06-07T03:46:08 | 2024-11-07T21:34:23 | 2024-11-07T21:34:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mwKl9xzMkpNDSP8qYiAA | Will Rammstein break up before August 2023? | Resolves YES if the band dissolves or has a major change in it's linup before August. NO otherwise.
Since the resolution criteria are slightly subjective I will not bet in this market.
Relevant background:
https://www.dw.com/en/fans-drugged-assaulted-new-accusations-against-rammsteins-till-lindemann/a-65772206
[link... | 2023-06-07T01:10:01 | 2023-07-31T17:04:12 | 2023-07-31T17:04:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ysx8LPW6tCwzypvxHomb | Will Apple kick Beeminder off the App Store? | We got an email from Apple today saying that they don't approve of Beeminder's business model and we have 14 days to submit an updated app that's compliant with their guidelines.
Excerpt:
Customers expect the App Store to be a safe and trusted marketplace for purchasing digital goods. Apps should never betray this tr... | 2023-06-07T00:30:15 | 2023-07-07T21:42:01 | 2023-07-07T21:42:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-svySpZNGmq6JJcoNghu2 | Will any state be decided by <0.1% in the 2024 presidential election? | In any state, will the margin of victory for the winning candidate (their percentage of votes, minus the second-place candidate's) be <0.1%? In 2020, the closest state was Georgia, with a margin of 0.23%. | 2023-06-06T22:24:43 | 2024-11-30T21:59:00 | 2024-12-01T01:06:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-T6RAPzUgyn3H1ui79YrQ | Will the tipping point state in the 2024 election be decided by <1%? | The tipping point state is the state that gives the winning candidate their 270th electoral vote (or whatever number is needed to win, if the number of electors ever changes), when the states are ordered by the margin of victory. In 2020, that was Wisconsin, where Biden won by 0.63%. Will the margin in the tipping poin... | 2023-06-06T21:42:01 | 2024-11-12T20:48:25 | 2024-11-12T20:48:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Lbviw5DSZ8Ko7y1z7J9Q | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on July 23, 2023. | 2023-06-06T20:28:34 | 2023-07-23T07:43:24 | 2023-07-23T07:43:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6JaUnF5reG014rOKIR7h | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | The race will take place on July 23, 2023. | 2023-06-06T20:28:28 | 2023-07-23T07:42:22 | 2023-07-23T07:42:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vYo9RIwVT7uoN80xynzl | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 British Grand Prix (Silverstone)? | The race will take place on July 9, 2023. | 2023-06-06T20:27:46 | 2023-07-09T10:51:44 | 2023-07-09T10:51:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8kEBHQwcGXMNuGa9b6ga | Will Linda Yaccarino stay the CEO of Twitter for more than a year? | Linda Yaccarino, a former NBCUniversal marketing executive, on June 6 2023 officially took over the CEO role at Twitter from Elon Musk, weeks after the billionaire announced hiring her for the top spot at the social media company.
This market will resolve to YES, if Linda stays the CEO of Twitter by June 6 2024 (11:59... | 2023-06-06T14:37:19 | 2024-06-07T14:59:00 | 2024-06-10T11:20:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S1LPrXPpDqvcDPomDiur | Will Instagram allow you to chat with an AI before the end of 2023? | A new feature rollout from Instagram this year to join the AI wagon? | 2023-06-06T13:44:50 | 2023-10-17T07:50:23 | 2023-10-17T07:50:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-soeHEbgbPu7C5F237bMz | Will there be a version of Apple Vision that costs LESS than $3499 by the time we can order one? | Apple Vision (non-Pro)?
Resolves YES if you can order a version that is less expensive.
Resolves NO if you can not.
Market will close when the pre-order date is announced. | 2023-06-06T12:22:26 | 2024-01-08T10:57:23 | 2024-01-08T10:57:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dKmDXzRBQxEzdWR0yBtA | Will Donald Trump lose a single state in the 2024 Republican primaries? | Will there be at least one state where Donald Trump doesn't get first place in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in that state?
Note: Any reason for Trump failing to win the state counts. This would include, for example, Trump dropping out before that state's primary or Trump being excluded from the ballot... | 2023-06-06T09:29:56 | 2024-03-05T19:24:21 | 2024-03-05T19:24:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s8fAkqSszQBB4oCRjtoV | Will the Miami Heat win at least three games in the NBA Finals 2023? | Resolves YES if the Miami Heat win three, or four games in the NBA Finals 2023. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2023-06-06T08:00:20 | 2023-06-13T00:03:04 | 2023-06-13T00:03:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iUyt2Z86E3y0yeoMcfDu | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 7th June than it closed on 6th June? | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Wednesday 7th June than it did on Tuesday 6th June?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And here are some longer term FTSE markets:
[markets] | 2023-06-06T07:46:05 | 2023-06-07T08:30:00 | 2023-06-07T08:55:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mgoeXnscVoLECR5IRAvw | Will the 2024 election be an exact repeat of 2020? | Resolves YES if all of the following happen in the 2024 U.S. presidential election:
The Democratic nominee is President Joe Biden, and the Republican nominee is Donald Trump, Sr.
Every single state, as well as D.C. and all Congressional districts that have electoral votes, vote for the same candidate in 2024 as they ... | 2023-06-06T07:30:32 | 2024-07-26T21:09:26 | 2024-07-26T21:09:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ALFSS50dXl04YTz06Qc1 | Will Elon Musk be seen in an Apple Vision Pro before 2025? | Or similar Apple ar/vr set. | 2023-06-06T07:27:20 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T09:27:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YHewVUPBSZxkmFqkunJT | Will Joe Biden lose a single state in the 2024 Democratic primaries? | Will there be at least one state where Joe Biden doesn't get first place in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in that state?
See also: @/JosephNoonan/will-donald-trump-lose-a-single-sta
Note: Only states count, not territories. | 2023-06-06T07:19:11 | 2024-07-18T16:57:56 | 2024-07-18T16:57:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jhnInuTEY3qChsTVjkNS | Will Sasha Grey be on Destiny's Kick or Keep show in June? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-06T04:53:48 | 2023-07-01T19:28:46 | 2023-07-01T19:28:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZaCrYj0cnoUZgSjk6fJt | Will Bitcoin be up more than 50% yearly in 2023? 📈 | Currenty sitting at exactly +50% YTD (June 2023)
On December 31st, 2023 - will it be more or less than 50% YTD?
YES= More than +50%
NO = Less than +50%
Price considered in USD / USDT
[image]
| 2023-06-06T04:28:07 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2023-12-31T08:08:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vmEbQcEaTvZc7LqQBuVV | Will there be a version of Apple Vision Pro that costs more than $3499 by the time we can order one? | Resolves YES if you can order a version that is more expensive.
Resolves NO if you can not.
Market will close when the pre-order is open and we can configure it.
Clarifications:
Add ons such as extra lens or head strap does not count
If they charge for more storage, material, or any other configurations it count... | 2023-06-06T01:21:47 | 2024-01-19T03:59:00 | 2024-01-19T13:07:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CTqYXKh51Fd7X3QNtlVk | Will the UFO retrieval program claims by whistleblower David Grusch be viewed as accurate in June of 2024? | Inspired by Adam D'Angelo's question: https://twitter.com/adamdangelo/status/1665926922373861386
Will the UFO retrieval program claims by whistleblower David Grusch be widely viewed as roughly accurate 1 year from now?
For the purposes of clarity "widely viewed as roughly accurate" meaning the following:
A poll on ... | 2023-06-05T21:17:22 | 2024-06-30T16:59:00 | 2024-07-25T00:58:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nIHK4EWqF0q1oK81E9ID | Will David Grusch's non-human tech claims be confirmed by 2023-end? | David Charles Grusch, a former member of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force run by the Office of Naval Intelligence, has made substantial allegations that the US government possesses non-human technology and materials. He further alleges that the Intelligence Community has intentionally withheld classified ev... | 2023-06-05T20:47:17 | 2023-12-31T19:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:19:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uv7zPfFGMchcFajCJ794 | Will the DoD confirm they have recovered and currently retain intact UAPs not of terrestrial origin by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-05T15:48:50 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:44:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3YdNMO3dE6yVt3rTXfB3 | Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 1/1/2024 be 5% or higher? | Using the closing price on Jan 1st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
[link preview] | 2023-06-05T13:55:47 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:20:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kseHhxD3pAIORSEl97FS | Will James Medlock take on another Twitter bet by the end of the year? | @JamesMedlock is clearly high on his recent victory against Balaji Srinivasan, and is now asking random people for bets on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1665464362323042306?s=20
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1663564000578379779?s=20
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1658124977017614337?s... | 2023-06-05T10:41:58 | 2023-08-26T17:18:47 | 2023-08-26T17:18:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mCxYXMScOlz6JDoEqDs4 | Will claims of a "retrieved craft of non-human origin" be confirmed by the US government by the end of the year? | On June 5th, The Debrief published an article making several claims, including on the existence "deeply covert programs that he says possess retrieved intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin."
A former intelligence official turned whistleblower has given Congress and the Intelligence Community Inspector ... | 2023-06-05T09:34:14 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:47:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YmZEKfU7a8JHGXj2m3CW | Apple ($AAPL) to drop at least 5% from all time high during or right after WWDC23 🍏 | When WWDC23 begins or 24 hrs after the event closure
If AAPL price is 5% lower than historical all time high - solves YES
if price is not lower tha 5% from historical all time high - solves NO
Price here: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ?window=5D
[link preview] | 2023-06-05T07:09:16 | 2023-06-09T08:59:00 | 2023-06-09T09:07:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6OWcFU6TqfvBgPfpC6dv | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia before the end of 2024? | Resultion criteria
This question will resolve positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days between market start and December 31, 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this ma... | 2023-06-05T00:09:59 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2025-01-02T01:25:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4cMRGJSfzZMbVrllzLLS | Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17334/robert-f-kennedy-jr/ | 2023-06-04T15:31:34 | 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2024-11-07T06:42:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MfC49TWEPVV6n4vTTcGm | Will Turkey veto Sweden’s pending membership in NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-04T15:16:28 | 2024-02-20T08:54:08 | 2024-02-20T08:54:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UiSBzDFZ5Yntn0XiCL5H | Will the record for the biggest televised poker pot be broken in 2023? | Recently the record was set at , 3.1M
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/27892-watch-tom-durrrr-dwan-drags-record-3-1-million-pot-in-high-stakes-poker-cash-game | 2023-06-04T14:43:47 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:05:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4hT5SjxqEf4pImyRPSCM | Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/16560/swedish-nato-membership-by-2024/ | 2023-06-04T13:20:32 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:13:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K0qw50lhdAdW4RZjhR7m | At the next UK general election, will Labour be promising to block all new North Sea oil and gas exploration? | Labour have made a promise to block all new oil and gas projects in the North Sea (source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/labour-confirms-plans-to-block-all-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-projects/).
Significant parts of the press, other parties, and some Labour politicians have strongly opposed this plan and ther... | 2023-06-04T12:01:33 | 2024-07-03T23:00:00 | 2024-07-04T01:02:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EL9qAaWdQA5gwKUSSVHk | Will Joe Biden and Xi Jinping speak in person during September? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-04T10:56:11 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T09:33:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1wRB1q6EafZTWMdZzzSV | Will Joe Biden and Xi Jinping speak in person during August? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-04T10:55:47 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-08-31T22:21:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NM36vpBaxYc7Sbs8czrU | Will RedBull win every race of the 2023 F1 Season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-04T07:39:34 | 2023-09-17T06:52:38 | 2023-09-17T06:52:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4RNstr56CJb9FwqxWv0V | Will Joe Biden and Xi Jinping speak via teleconference during October? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-04T07:06:10 | 2023-10-31T20:59:00 | 2023-10-31T22:09:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zQlXUWtO3C0seMdRebur | Will Russia control [annex] Transnistria by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-04T04:11:10 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-02-01T22:54:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kgpCdKhy1xKE1m3mKfke | Will Trump be indicted by three or more states by the end of 2023? | One down, two to go. | 2023-06-04T01:29:07 | 2023-12-31T20:33:53 | 2023-12-31T20:33:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4hordBJ8ChO0ylCpPQGZ | Do you think Imu will be revealed as a male? | YES if you think Imu will be revealed as a male.
NO if you think Imu will be revealed as a female. | 2023-06-04T01:02:46 | 2024-06-24T22:13:35 | 2024-06-24T22:13:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-j9gzBTkXphOYKeqnY563 | Will Chris Christie win any delegates in the 2024 GOP primaries? | Delegates are divided strangely in some states. | 2023-06-03T23:20:40 | 2024-07-17T12:39:51 | 2024-07-17T12:39:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cpGe9ErhdnZ5yhjzGEpO | Will GPT-4's parameter count be known by end of 2024? | Must be officially released by OpenAI so leaks or off-hand comments do not count.
Extremely wide intervals("between 1000 and 100 trillion") would not be accepted: Endpoints must be within 25% of the mean. So "500-600 billion" would be acceptable because the mean is 550 billion, the 25% variation is [412, 687], and the... | 2023-06-03T19:51:46 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-10T18:53:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hz4Bd9WRB0HtcR0VwBCY | Will Nvidia be world's most valuable semiconductor company by market cap in the end of June 2024? | In June 30th 2024 I'll enter on https://companiesmarketcap.com/semiconductors/largest-semiconductor-companies-by-market-cap/ and check if Nvidia is world's most valuable semiconductor company by market value. If they are, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
[link preview] | 2023-06-03T14:17:26 | 2024-06-30T19:59:00 | 2024-07-17T08:39:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eVMxcgJ9IllqIcmEl2Ir | Will Sheinbaum win the 2024 Mexican presidential election? | Background: On July 7, 2024, the Mexican general election will be held which will include the Mexican presidential election. The president is elected using first-past-the-post voting. According to opinion polls, Claudia Sheinbaum—currently the mayor of Mexico City—is the frontrunner to be the MORENA candidate.
MORENA... | 2023-06-03T14:09:07 | 2024-06-04T21:22:40 | 2024-06-04T21:22:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9TQZp43G5nh3uiBX9StJ | Will Destiny and Farha have an episode of their Podcast by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T12:54:27 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T11:31:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NM8Zsv28vzd7UaGDs4lg | Will Destiny and Farha have an episode of their Podcast by the end of June? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T12:53:52 | 2023-07-01T19:29:00 | 2023-07-01T19:29:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zDf2B1IhWwR5uUKHoRHp | Will an episode of Destiny's new talk show/podcast get 750k views on Youtube in 2023 | Resolves YES if any full episode (45 minutes minimum video duration, does not need to be completely unedited, but can not be a clip/highlight reel etc.) of Destiny's new show reaches 750k views on youtube before 2024 (GMT). Other hosts may vary, including but not limited to Farha and Dan, but Destiny needs to be presen... | 2023-06-03T12:51:59 | 2023-12-31T17:00:00 | 2023-12-31T22:04:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fgGhwnZhKDEyYI5Fch2q | Will Destiny and Dan have an episode of their Podcast by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T12:51:29 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T11:31:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DKIFt6dBj5h8eWwsej6B | Will Destiny talk to Counterpoints by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:44:47 | 2023-06-11T10:46:57 | 2023-06-11T10:46:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k3u2IXxcvfqq5oErSPRU | Will Destiny talk to Taftaj by the end of August? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:43:32 | 2023-08-31T23:59:00 | 2023-09-06T19:40:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Sdl4wvOoouxJrg5vKSf | Will Destiny talk to Adam & Sitch by the end of August? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:41:50 | 2023-08-31T23:59:00 | 2023-09-06T19:40:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6IQDwbw26jQZPs11GLDC | Will Destiny talk to Lilypichu by the end of August? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:34:33 | 2023-08-31T23:59:00 | 2023-09-06T19:38:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eT6n1g9VVEqTQo7rUFBe | Will Destiny talk to Myron by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:33:16 | 2023-07-12T10:40:08 | 2023-07-12T10:40:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5YOjEFnFCA69O7lD3WHv | Will Destiny talk to Adam Sosnick of Valuetainment by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:29:38 | 2023-07-12T10:39:41 | 2023-07-12T10:39:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ErchhBtgnjdNHQBO7UqE | Will Destiny talk to Leafy by the end of 2023? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:15:34 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:14:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BaCSnhcKCDh1mWZ8p1SF | Will Destiny talk to Ryan Dawson by the end of 2023? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:10:37 | 2023-08-17T01:45:02 | 2023-08-17T01:45:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cszgrDWxjHw9C3mzk26L | Will Destiny talk to WickedSupreme by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T11:04:45 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T11:31:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ysx2Fldtndq6SOvbOl8j | Will Destiny talk to xQc by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T10:51:09 | 2023-07-26T20:30:47 | 2023-07-26T20:30:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ak90C8xUBQOpicj3qWZT | Will Destiny talk to Rollo by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T10:24:05 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T11:31:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KxBxu1kZHxPb1XMIXFpI | Will Destiny talk to Aella in June? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T09:59:26 | 2023-07-01T19:29:13 | 2023-07-01T19:29:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
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