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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-4AQiCEtngDcXXWveyMIy
|
Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - will the Conservative party candidate win the seat?
|
Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect
This should lead to an imminent by-election.
Will the Conservative Party candidate win the seat?
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7db83e497
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-58d541c7bdd7
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-1a39fdaf45c7
If there is no Conservative Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.
If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A
|
2023-06-09T08:32:38
|
2023-10-19T23:48:35
|
2023-10-19T23:48:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-znZsfOojq6kz8Z7W9iBc
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 15th than it closed on June 14th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-06-09T08:31:18
|
2023-06-15T11:00:00
|
2023-06-15T14:18:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I3qSg4L2UFSQeM7Sv4lX
|
Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Lib Dem candidate win the seat?
|
Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect
This should lead to an imminent by-election.
Will the Liberal Democrat candidate win the seat?
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7db83e497
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-58d541c7bdd7
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-1a39fdaf45c7
If there is no Lib Dem candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.
If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A
|
2023-06-09T08:29:28
|
2023-10-19T23:49:12
|
2023-10-19T23:49:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jPbobjrp1ynbQpRUUOLW
|
Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - Will the Labour Party candidate win the seat?
|
Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect
This should lead to an imminent by-election.
Will the Labour Party candidate win the seat?
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7db83e497
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-58d541c7bdd7
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-1a39fdaf45c7
If there is no Labour Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.
If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A
|
2023-06-09T08:28:51
|
2023-10-19T23:51:06
|
2023-10-19T23:51:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pyZb1dOooEtu3RBns7rZ
|
Will the Green Party win any seats in England at the next general election?
|
At the last UK general election in 2019, the Green Party of England and Wales won 2.6% of the vote and one constituency: Brighton Pavillion. However, the current MP for Brighton Pavillion, Caroline Lucas, has announced that she is stepping down at the next general election, raising the possibility that the party will lose its only seat.
This market resolves to YES if the Green Party of England and Wales wins any constituency in England at the next general election. Candidates suspended from the party still count as long as they appear as "Green" on the ballot paper (like Neale Hanvey in 2019).
|
2023-06-09T07:02:15
|
2024-07-05T01:19:03
|
2024-07-05T01:19:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hA5WIaSZaFxgFI3EDFEF
|
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2024?
|
Apple have announced their new AR device, the Apple Vision Pro:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Vision_Pro
Will Apple's launch kick off a new age of people finally using VR and AR devices? Or will it go away quietly like Google Glass (2013-2015)?
I generally walk around Zones 1 and 2 of London for at least 1-2 hours per day, including areas around central London, South London and South West London. I regularly get different forms of public transport including the Tube.
Will I see at least two different people wearing an Apple Vision Pro in London in public (including on public transport) by the end of 2024?
@/SimonGrayson/will-people-be-wearing-the-apple-vi
@/SimonGrayson/will-people-be-wearing-the-apple-vi-a5b2a9f97521
@/SimonGrayson/will-people-be-wearing-the-apple-vi-f12d08bf8e25
@/SimonGrayson/will-people-be-wearing-the-apple-vi-4b0c4a25175c
What doesn't count?
Anyone who is trying to sell or give away Apple products (eg. someone demo-ing the Vision Pro so that people will buy one or enter their competition to win one)
People who are part of some kind of art installation or promotion rather than wearing one in their normal lives (eg. if there's a film premier and promotional staff are wearing the Vision Pro or offering people the chance to try one out as part of the promotion)
If I see someone wearing one in their own private space such as their living room or their car even if this is visble from a public street
Other resolution notes:
When I see the second person wearing a Vision Pro, I will resolve this market to YES. These don't need to be on the same day, and I'll probably provide an update in the market notes once I've seen the first one.
If the Vision Pro is rebranded or Apple release similar products such as a Vision Pro 2 or a cut down Vision SE, these will count so long as they are as similar to the orriginal Vision Pro as one iPhone model is to other iPhones.
If I leave London or there's some reason why I'm not leaving my home to spend as much time in public, I will attempt to come up with an equivelant resolution such as asking friends to keep an eye out for people wearing a Vision Pro in London.
I won't trade in this market myself as I realise you've only got my word on whether I've seen this or not!
|
2023-06-09T03:51:23
|
2024-12-20T15:59:00
|
2025-01-04T03:33:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ti5toE64slB9MgfzSDBR
|
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
|
Over the last month the far-right AfD has risen sharply in the polls.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
Is this a permanent change in Germany's political landscape?
[link preview]
|
2023-06-09T03:27:53
|
2025-02-23T09:00:00
|
2025-02-23T22:04:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l1G1guxUufEEfrmiEUWP
|
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the Greens in Germany's next federal election?
|
Over the last month the far-right AfD has risen sharply in the polls.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
Is this a permanent change in Germany's political landscape?
[link preview]
|
2023-06-09T03:26:16
|
2025-02-23T09:00:00
|
2025-02-23T11:01:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-csZGwYyzw3Pqa5lU1QR2
|
Will Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all vote together in the 2024 presidential election?
|
These three states tend to have similar results, and all three have always voted for the same candidate in recent presidential elections. However, they are now very close swing states, leaving open the possibility that they might vote for different candidates, despite the correlation and similarity in their results. The most likely scenario for this is probably Wisconsin voting Republican, while the other two vote Democratic, since Wisconsin is slightly redder than the other two. Another plausible scenario is Democratic Michigan, with the other two voting Republican, again because of Michigan's slightly bluer lean.
|
2023-06-08T22:48:09
|
2024-11-07T14:32:07
|
2024-11-07T14:32:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XLM9fntPx2pYembWHgR8
|
Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 POTUS election?
|
NH is generally considered a swing state, though Democrats have performed very strongly there in the last couple of elections. Will Republicans reverse that trend?
|
2023-06-08T18:40:40
|
2024-11-06T06:14:30
|
2024-11-06T06:14:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gwWt6kX3xZjSTCAnqUbC
|
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-08T18:37:02
|
2024-11-05T08:36:17
|
2024-11-05T08:36:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FKPXiIMfIvKKuCYbsbiE
|
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 Republican National Convention?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-08T18:34:31
|
2024-07-18T19:36:47
|
2024-07-18T19:36:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eMSVh4OFeIeWeNqycHFL
|
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 POTUS election?
|
Texas used to be seen as a solid red state, basically the Republican Party's California. That's not the case anymore, with Trump winning it by less than 6% in 2020. Democrats have dreamt of flipping it for a long time, and it is trending in that direction. However, most people think it's probably not getting bluer fast enough to flip in 2024. Will Democrats pull it off?
|
2023-06-08T18:33:11
|
2024-11-06T06:16:29
|
2024-11-06T06:16:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C4Ixl41dhisGmWb1IOjp
|
Will a Republican win Nevada in the 2024 POTUS election?
|
Nevada has been a very close state in most recent elections. Will Republicans flip it in 2024?
|
2023-06-08T18:23:55
|
2024-11-09T17:17:52
|
2024-11-09T17:17:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CgEfNwKbFyDUcVQPXguq
|
Will a Republican win Wisconsin in the 2024 POTUS election?
|
Wisconsin was the tipping point state for Biden's victory in 2020. But it was very close, within 1%. In 2022, it went red in the Senate election but blue in the governor's race, making it a very closely divided state. Will the Republican nominee flip it in 2024?
|
2023-06-08T18:15:42
|
2024-11-05T23:24:42
|
2024-11-05T23:24:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y1ySu8oEeyvYWiBnMdqp
|
Will a Republican win Georgia in the 2024 POTUS election?
|
Georgia was the closest state last time. Will it flip back to the Republicans?
|
2023-06-08T18:11:31
|
2024-11-05T23:25:26
|
2024-11-05T23:25:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3kNYmVwvc8aZQKMAre39
|
Will Destiny talk to Trainwrecks again in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-08T16:05:23
|
2023-06-14T10:14:10
|
2023-06-14T10:14:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6oshTSVt0Cw9tTb4CaWc
|
Will Destiny talk to Erudite again in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-08T16:03:06
|
2023-07-01T19:28:30
|
2023-07-01T19:28:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7KfdkizQ3xKwDZdUtaS2
|
Will Destiny talk to Ana Kasparian in 2023?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-08T16:01:53
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-12T05:07:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wA1Yz1EjU2ZyLJgYFkrc
|
2023: Will Elon Musk cease to be the richest billionaire... AGAIN?
|
Will resolve to YES if at any point in 2023 after June 9, Elon Musk ceases to rank top #1 at Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.
Current toplist:
[image]
|
2023-06-08T15:47:55
|
2023-06-27T13:54:22
|
2023-06-27T13:54:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h26KZv0OGLny8spawZfE
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on Labor Day?
|
Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on September 4, 2023. Resolves YES even if Jimmy Carter passes away on that day.
|
2023-06-08T11:59:06
|
2023-09-04T18:25:19
|
2023-09-04T18:25:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mKjbldvkUnxfr6xpelrI
|
Will destiny talk to AOC before June 10th 2024?
|
This market will resolve to YES if destiny talks to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez before 2024/6/8 either on stream or in person. Only thing that wouldn't count is emails or text-based communication.
Maybe Brianna Wu will make it happen or they will meet at a political event or she plays Among Us again...
|
2023-06-08T09:10:28
|
2024-06-09T14:59:00
|
2024-06-09T15:34:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KPtMsgnS8ofG3HdzGnEz
|
Will Lex Fridman tweet about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?
|
YES = If Lex Fridman makes a standalone tweet/QT/thread that mentions Manifold Markets. (replies, likes, RTs won't count)
|
2023-06-08T01:06:49
|
2024-01-03T21:58:26
|
2024-01-03T21:58:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6e5EmOizdIIXrZZH5Ibi
|
Will Lex Fridman share his market about interviewing Putin on Twitter?
|
YES = If Lex tweets, quote tweets or retweets a tweet that links to his market. (Likes won't count)
Link to the market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/LexFridman/will-lex-fridman-interview-vladimir-0cc5888760ac)
|
2023-06-08T00:57:55
|
2024-01-01T18:00:00
|
2024-01-02T04:08:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J30y7ro4eP3n6KtGHv1X
|
Will a Lex Fridman market lead directly to an interview?
|
Prediction markets are incentive markets, a market 'will X happen' can lead to someone putting in work to make X happen.
If Lex Fridman makes a market that he will interview someone, will that lead, in a publicly stated way, to him doing an interview?
Resolves yes if it's acknowledged on the show, or in any other way by Lex or the guest, that the market was in some way related to the interview happening. Say someone saw the market and connected them.
|
2023-06-08T00:30:37
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T18:43:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-99sjwHLrUfTSPuHtQrJN
|
Will Lex Fridman make 10 markets in 2023?
|
Will https://manifold.markets/LexFridman create 10 markets in 2023?
He recently made his first market, will he have more questions he wants the answers to?
It does not have to be positively proven that it's Lex, by say a tweet.
Only if it's disproven that it's Lex, then it will resolve No.
|
2023-06-08T00:11:44
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T18:42:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nf9mgftSpeksPv67lTeK
|
Will Lex Fridman create at least 5 markets by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves based on @LexFridman's account.
|
2023-06-07T23:23:25
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:48:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv
|
Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-07T22:38:15
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:33:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ppZHL3PY5PCXDHqJkquj
|
Will the 2024 election be closer than 2020?
|
This market will resolve YES if the winning candidate of the U.S. presidential general election's margins in any two of the following are smaller in 2024 than they were in 2020:
The Electoral College
The popular vote
The tipping point state
I am using a best 2 out of 3 system from these three metrics, since each of them capture different ways that the election could be considered close. Note that, if there is an Electoral College - popular vote split, then the winning candidate's margin in the popular vote will be negative, which means it will be smaller than Biden's margin in 2020, which was positive. Likewise, if there's an Electoral College tie, then the winning candidate's margin in their tipping point state will be negative (they didn't win the tipping point state, since then they would have won outright in the Electoral College). It's also technically possible for the winning candidate to have a negative margin in the Electoral College, but only in a situation where more than two candidates get electoral votes, and none has a majority.
In 2020, the margin in the Electoral College was 74 (306-232), the margin in the popular vote was 4.46% (51.31%-46.85%), and the margin in the tipping point state (Wisconsin) was 0.63%.
|
2023-06-07T22:04:15
|
2024-11-10T19:37:02
|
2024-11-10T19:37:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fyVn1ySV9yfrulaYRjPI
|
Will AMZN reach $150 by any point by 2024?
|
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN
[link preview]I also hold mostly Amazon stock right now so I would hope this resolves yes
|
2023-06-07T21:27:15
|
2023-12-14T14:24:26
|
2023-12-14T14:24:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S877GJ9772P7Gj38SKKQ
|
Will the Wagner group stop operating in Ukraine by the end of Jul 2023?
|
YES = if multiple reliable sources confirm that the Wagner group has ceased its operations in Ukraine entirely. Temporary halts to recuperate will not count.
The current consensus seems to be that Wagner Group are not involved in combat operations in Ukraine.
Based on the earlier survey, I will wait for a month after market close to resolve this. But as it stands (which could change), the market will very likely resolve YES. However, if Wagner Group resumes operations in Ukraine before resolution, then this market will resolve NO (as the halt in operation would be deemed temporary).
|
2023-06-07T21:14:57
|
2023-08-01T00:09:27
|
2023-08-01T00:09:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IEOHwrF9NEuZ7CbzBpF5
|
Will the cost of GPT-4 API decrease by the end of 2023?
|
FINAL UPDATE:
Everyone, I am deeply sorry for the way that I handled this market. When GPT-4 Turbo first released, I was inactive on Manifold and didn’t even realize that it could qualify to resolve the market. People took me not resolving it YES upon the release of GPT-4 Turbo as a sign that it wouldn’t count, and started betting the market back down. I was also provided arguments for why it should/should not count. At this point, I still wasn’t interested in Manifold, so instead of delving deeper, I just responded to individual arguments, and I saw points for both NO and YES, so I decided I would resolve N/A instead of doing more research, because I couldn’t decide with that limited evidence. If I had done more research like I should’ve, and looked at all of OpenAI’s relevant pages, I would have resolved YES. However, I felt that because of my indecision upon the initial release of GPT-4 Turbo, resolving YES would be unfair to those who bought NO a week after, thinking it wouldn’t count, therefore I was compelled to resolve N/A.
Here is my solution: The market will resolve YES, but I’m going to personally refund all the people who bought at least M10 of NO after the release of GPT-4 Turbo, but before my update stating that I would likely resolve YES. This will be done tomorrow. Here is the list of people, with the amount of mana they spent:
ww - 20
JohnSmith39f9 - 20
ManuelSalazar - 20
AntonBogun - 25
ChrisMills - 25
rocknrollfinance - 25
Grinchtachu - 30
JouniSeppanen - 30
StavrosKyriakidis - 30
KamilStaszewski - 40
OlegEterevsky - 50
tozac - 50
diegocaples - 50
5bd4 - 50
CellVendetta - 50
MaximPaschke - 50
JonathanColeman - 55
Grease - 60
StanRunge - 65
ChunglamWoo - 70
ArthurBrussee - 94
Seasons - 100
Simon74fe - 100
SanchitAgrawal - 100
jack_gibb - 100
vgnsh - 100
AlanFoster - 100
Be - 100
Cephalopod - 100
NamNguyencaf0 - 100
RaphaelP - 100
FinnMcArthur - 100
Arch1e - 110
FlameWing - 120
AndersKallberg - 150
Roosevelt55 - 200
FranciscoLecumberri - 200
Apple_ - 221
poetr - 405
AidinAbedi - 500
MarcelAguilarGarcia - 503
eclair4151 - 800
I will also refund Byrne Hobart 500 mana, because he bought a lot of YES when Turbo was released, and then was forced to sell some off at a loss.
If you aren’t on this list and bought NO after the Turbo release, please let me know.
Once again, I apologize for my error.
Sam Altman reportedly stated that "Cheaper and faster GPT-4" is OpenAI's top priority (paraphrased). Will the price of the GPT-4 API decrease in 2023?
"GPT-4" is defined as: Any product commonly referred to as "gpt-4" or similar by OpenAI. Names like "gpt-4-0314," "gpt-4-multimodal-2," "gpt-4," or "gpt-4-oct," would count as long as they are commonly referred to as GPT-4 and build off the original GPT-4 models. "gpt-4-plus," "gpt-4.5," or "gpt-4.1" would not count unless OpenAI regularly calls them GPT-4 and the consensus is that they are newer versions of gpt-4. Must be accessible by API, waitlisted is fine.
This specifically refers to the API, services like ChatGPT don't count, even if they switch to per-token pricing. You must be able to use it in code with an API key.
Resolves YES if:
• The price per 1k prompt tokens of any version of GPT-4 goes below $0.03 at any point before close of this market
• The price per 1k output tokens of any version of GPT-4 goes below $0.06 at any point before close of this market
Else, resolves 50% if:
• The price per 1k prompt tokens of a version of GPT-4 with a max text context length of 32K tokens or higher goes below $0.06 at any point before close of this market
• The price per 1k prompt tokens of a version of GPT-4 with a max text context length of 32K tokens or higher goes below $0.12 at any point before close of this market
Resolves N/A if:
• I cannot tell whether a model that may have satisfied the above conditions counts as gpt-4 or not on close date.
• There is credible evidence that a gpt-4 model that may have satisfied the above conditions is being offered through an API to specific people, but OpenAI has not confirmed this on close date.
Resolves NO if:
• None of the above conditions are true.
|
2023-06-07T17:25:10
|
2023-12-31T16:59:00
|
2024-01-01T17:54:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fwI8erZrSTALmWOLa7qu
|
Will RFK Jr win delegates from New Hampshire in the 2024 Democratic party primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-07T16:05:55
|
2024-02-05T15:59:00
|
2024-02-12T07:00:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jLe53Wo2iIAgqUcSVtkY
|
Will Twitch Prime be Gone in One Year?
|
Will Twitch Prime be Gone in One Year? Destiny predicted this today at 07-JUN-2023. Do you agree?
|
2023-06-07T14:57:10
|
2024-06-07T20:59:00
|
2024-06-08T10:36:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UoHtx5bfAottpV98pzmU
|
Will Tucker Carlson's Google Trend interest be at least 3% any point in July 2024?
|
On August 5th, 2024, I'll check Google Trends for Tucker Carlson, in the United States, over the last 5 years.
This market resolves YES if for any week that includes July 2024, google shows a 3 or above for his interest.
Otherwise, it resolves NO.
[image]This market is one of several attempting to predict if Tucker Carlson will stay relevant.
[link preview](https://manifold.markets/embed/DanMan314/will-tucker-on-twitter-episodes-in)
|
2023-06-07T14:21:08
|
2024-08-06T07:57:25
|
2024-08-06T07:57:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uTiPzRMBvcCJGXHdlhn6
|
Will Tucker on Twitter episodes in July 2024 average at least 50,000 likes?
|
On June 6th, Tucker Carlson posted the first episode of "Tucker on Twitter". As of writing this market on June 7th, the tweet is at 688,000 likes.
To resolve this market, on September 1st, 2024, I'll take all of the tweets from the @TuckerCarlson account posted in July 2024 that contain videos that are episodes of "Tucker on Twitter" (or equivalent if there is a rebrand). I'll take the average the likes on those videos.
If that average is 50,000 or greater, this market resolves YES.
If it is less than 50,000, OR if there are no such videos, this market resolves NO. This means if he's left Twitter for another platform this market will resolve NO.
This market is one of several attempting to predict if Tucker Carlson will stay relevant.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DanMan314/will-tucker-carlsons-google-trend-i)
|
2023-06-07T14:16:20
|
2024-09-01T23:59:00
|
2024-09-02T01:36:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SswIgqa9rJWitNyeVC41
|
Will Messi join Inter Miami in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-07T08:54:32
|
2023-07-15T16:12:32
|
2023-07-15T16:12:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4nRk5v2TZbhDxDgYqGfD
|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the Q4 2023?
|
If humanity is still around on Oct. 1, 2023, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.
|
2023-06-07T08:34:03
|
2023-10-01T00:00:00
|
2023-10-01T05:40:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DaY3xRCHJQLsLomXgS13
|
Will Andrew Ng start to take AI extinction risk seriously before 2024?
|
He seems to be open to changing his mind, will he?
https://twitter.com/AndrewYNg/status/1665759430552567810?s=20
|
2023-06-07T05:53:22
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-02T07:50:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HJBM5xs63Hg4gRT0udCW
|
Will the Republican candidate win every county in West Virginia in the 2024 presidential election?
|
Resolves to YES if the Republican candidate wins the most votes in every county in West Virginia in the 2024 US presidential election. They don't need to win a majority of the votes in each county, just more than any other candidate.
West Virginia was one of two states where Donald Trump won every county in the 2020 election, alongside Oklahoma, and the last Democrat to win a county in the state was Barack Obama in 2008. However, Joe Biden came close to winnning Monongalia County, with 48% of the vote, and received more than 40% in three other counties.
|
2023-06-07T05:20:41
|
2024-11-12T04:00:00
|
2024-11-15T10:59:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E4SQ7EH9EWG7MKttiIEn
|
Will existential risk from AI be a topic during the 2024 US presidential debates?
|
resolves YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator or any of the candidates uses some combination of the following words in sequence:
extinction, existential, "death of our species," etc
artificial intellegence, AI, machine learning, ML, machine intelligence, etc
resolves YES even if they're skeptical or dismissive of the existential risk from AI.
resolves NO if the above criteria aren't met.
i'll resolve it to the spirit of the resolution.
examples:
if they talk about a world where "everybody dies from a man-made superhuman intelligence," i'll resolve it YES.
if they say "...and that's why climate change has a risk of causing extinction. artificial intelligence is our next topic: will it steal our jobs?" i'll resolve it NO.
|
2023-06-07T03:46:08
|
2024-11-07T21:34:23
|
2024-11-07T21:34:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mwKl9xzMkpNDSP8qYiAA
|
Will Rammstein break up before August 2023?
|
Resolves YES if the band dissolves or has a major change in it's linup before August. NO otherwise.
Since the resolution criteria are slightly subjective I will not bet in this market.
Relevant background:
https://www.dw.com/en/fans-drugged-assaulted-new-accusations-against-rammsteins-till-lindemann/a-65772206
[link preview]
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2023-06-07T01:10:01
|
2023-07-31T17:04:12
|
2023-07-31T17:04:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ysx8LPW6tCwzypvxHomb
|
Will Apple kick Beeminder off the App Store?
|
We got an email from Apple today saying that they don't approve of Beeminder's business model and we have 14 days to submit an updated app that's compliant with their guidelines.
Excerpt:
Customers expect the App Store to be a safe and trusted marketplace for purchasing digital goods. Apps should never betray this trust by attempting to cheat users in any way.
Specifically, we found that users can provide their payment information in order to create a monetary penalty that will be charged if the users don't achieve their goals. This concept is not suitable for the App Store.
We've sent an appeal and emphasized that our iOS app is just a tool to enter data and see graphs and it happens to send that data to Beeminder.com which is where the evil happens.
Will that be persuasive to them or will our appeals bounce off a faceless bureaucracy? Will we find another way to stay on the App Store or does Apple have it in for us? 😬
Resolves YES if Beeminder has been delisted at market close.
|
2023-06-07T00:30:15
|
2023-07-07T21:42:01
|
2023-07-07T21:42:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-svySpZNGmq6JJcoNghu2
|
Will any state be decided by <0.1% in the 2024 presidential election?
|
In any state, will the margin of victory for the winning candidate (their percentage of votes, minus the second-place candidate's) be <0.1%? In 2020, the closest state was Georgia, with a margin of 0.23%.
|
2023-06-06T22:24:43
|
2024-11-30T21:59:00
|
2024-12-01T01:06:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T6RAPzUgyn3H1ui79YrQ
|
Will the tipping point state in the 2024 election be decided by <1%?
|
The tipping point state is the state that gives the winning candidate their 270th electoral vote (or whatever number is needed to win, if the number of electors ever changes), when the states are ordered by the margin of victory. In 2020, that was Wisconsin, where Biden won by 0.63%. Will the margin in the tipping point state once again be <1%?
|
2023-06-06T21:42:01
|
2024-11-12T20:48:25
|
2024-11-12T20:48:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lbviw5DSZ8Ko7y1z7J9Q
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on July 23, 2023.
|
2023-06-06T20:28:34
|
2023-07-23T07:43:24
|
2023-07-23T07:43:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6JaUnF5reG014rOKIR7h
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
|
The race will take place on July 23, 2023.
|
2023-06-06T20:28:28
|
2023-07-23T07:42:22
|
2023-07-23T07:42:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vYo9RIwVT7uoN80xynzl
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 British Grand Prix (Silverstone)?
|
The race will take place on July 9, 2023.
|
2023-06-06T20:27:46
|
2023-07-09T10:51:44
|
2023-07-09T10:51:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8kEBHQwcGXMNuGa9b6ga
|
Will Linda Yaccarino stay the CEO of Twitter for more than a year?
|
Linda Yaccarino, a former NBCUniversal marketing executive, on June 6 2023 officially took over the CEO role at Twitter from Elon Musk, weeks after the billionaire announced hiring her for the top spot at the social media company.
This market will resolve to YES, if Linda stays the CEO of Twitter by June 6 2024 (11:59 PM ET). If for any reason she stops being the CEO, this will resolve to NO.
|
2023-06-06T14:37:19
|
2024-06-07T14:59:00
|
2024-06-10T11:20:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S1LPrXPpDqvcDPomDiur
|
Will Instagram allow you to chat with an AI before the end of 2023?
|
A new feature rollout from Instagram this year to join the AI wagon?
|
2023-06-06T13:44:50
|
2023-10-17T07:50:23
|
2023-10-17T07:50:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-soeHEbgbPu7C5F237bMz
|
Will there be a version of Apple Vision that costs LESS than $3499 by the time we can order one?
|
Apple Vision (non-Pro)?
Resolves YES if you can order a version that is less expensive.
Resolves NO if you can not.
Market will close when the pre-order date is announced.
|
2023-06-06T12:22:26
|
2024-01-08T10:57:23
|
2024-01-08T10:57:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dKmDXzRBQxEzdWR0yBtA
|
Will Donald Trump lose a single state in the 2024 Republican primaries?
|
Will there be at least one state where Donald Trump doesn't get first place in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in that state?
Note: Any reason for Trump failing to win the state counts. This would include, for example, Trump dropping out before that state's primary or Trump being excluded from the ballot in that state.
See also: @/JosephNoonan/will-joe-biden-lose-a-single-state
Note: Just to clarify, I am judging a win/loss in Nevada based on the Nevada caucus, since that is how delegates actually get awarded. In any case where there is both a primary and a caucus, the winner will be judged based on total delegates obtained from both. In the case of Nevada, zero delegates are gained by the primary, so the winner is determined solely by the caucus.
|
2023-06-06T09:29:56
|
2024-03-05T19:24:21
|
2024-03-05T19:24:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s8fAkqSszQBB4oCRjtoV
|
Will the Miami Heat win at least three games in the NBA Finals 2023?
|
Resolves YES if the Miami Heat win three, or four games in the NBA Finals 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2023-06-06T08:00:20
|
2023-06-13T00:03:04
|
2023-06-13T00:03:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iUyt2Z86E3y0yeoMcfDu
|
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 7th June than it closed on 6th June?
|
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Wednesday 7th June than it did on Tuesday 6th June?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And here are some longer term FTSE markets:
[markets]
|
2023-06-06T07:46:05
|
2023-06-07T08:30:00
|
2023-06-07T08:55:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mgoeXnscVoLECR5IRAvw
|
Will the 2024 election be an exact repeat of 2020?
|
Resolves YES if all of the following happen in the 2024 U.S. presidential election:
The Democratic nominee is President Joe Biden, and the Republican nominee is Donald Trump, Sr.
Every single state, as well as D.C. and all Congressional districts that have electoral votes, vote for the same candidate in 2024 as they did in 2020.
There are no faithless electors.
No state changes its rules in a way that affects how many electoral votes they give to each candidate, such as apportioning theirs by Congressional district when they didn't in 2020. The changes in the number of electoral votes of each state due to the 2020 census doesn't count as a change in rules, and any other rule change only counts if the number of electoral votes given to a candidate would have been different had the rule not been in effect.
No new states are added to the Union, with the possible exception of D.C.
The president is still elected via the Electoral College.
|
2023-06-06T07:30:32
|
2024-07-26T21:09:26
|
2024-07-26T21:09:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ALFSS50dXl04YTz06Qc1
|
Will Elon Musk be seen in an Apple Vision Pro before 2025?
|
Or similar Apple ar/vr set.
|
2023-06-06T07:27:20
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:27:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YHewVUPBSZxkmFqkunJT
|
Will Joe Biden lose a single state in the 2024 Democratic primaries?
|
Will there be at least one state where Joe Biden doesn't get first place in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in that state?
See also: @/JosephNoonan/will-donald-trump-lose-a-single-sta
Note: Only states count, not territories.
|
2023-06-06T07:19:11
|
2024-07-18T16:57:56
|
2024-07-18T16:57:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jhnInuTEY3qChsTVjkNS
|
Will Sasha Grey be on Destiny's Kick or Keep show in June?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-06T04:53:48
|
2023-07-01T19:28:46
|
2023-07-01T19:28:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZaCrYj0cnoUZgSjk6fJt
|
Will Bitcoin be up more than 50% yearly in 2023? 📈
|
Currenty sitting at exactly +50% YTD (June 2023)
On December 31st, 2023 - will it be more or less than 50% YTD?
YES= More than +50%
NO = Less than +50%
Price considered in USD / USDT
[image]
|
2023-06-06T04:28:07
|
2023-12-31T07:59:00
|
2023-12-31T08:08:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vmEbQcEaTvZc7LqQBuVV
|
Will there be a version of Apple Vision Pro that costs more than $3499 by the time we can order one?
|
Resolves YES if you can order a version that is more expensive.
Resolves NO if you can not.
Market will close when the pre-order is open and we can configure it.
Clarifications:
Add ons such as extra lens or head strap does not count
If they charge for more storage, material, or any other configurations it counts.
Example: For Apple watch, it would've resolved YES since Apple released one in Steel and Gold at higher prices.
|
2023-06-06T01:21:47
|
2024-01-19T03:59:00
|
2024-01-19T13:07:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CTqYXKh51Fd7X3QNtlVk
|
Will the UFO retrieval program claims by whistleblower David Grusch be viewed as accurate in June of 2024?
|
Inspired by Adam D'Angelo's question: https://twitter.com/adamdangelo/status/1665926922373861386
Will the UFO retrieval program claims by whistleblower David Grusch be widely viewed as roughly accurate 1 year from now?
For the purposes of clarity "widely viewed as roughly accurate" meaning the following:
A poll on manifold in june of 2024 about the claims would select "roughly accurate" or higher.
|
2023-06-05T21:17:22
|
2024-06-30T16:59:00
|
2024-07-25T00:58:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nIHK4EWqF0q1oK81E9ID
|
Will David Grusch's non-human tech claims be confirmed by 2023-end?
|
David Charles Grusch, a former member of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force run by the Office of Naval Intelligence, has made substantial allegations that the US government possesses non-human technology and materials. He further alleges that the Intelligence Community has intentionally withheld classified evidence of "intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin" and fragments "of exotic origin (non-human intelligence, whether extraterrestrial or unknown origin)" from congressional oversight. This has led to an ongoing investigation in response to his whistleblower complaint.
On the other hand, the Department of Defense has stated that the Airborne Object Identification and Management Synchronization Group (AARO) has not found any information substantiating claims of any programs related to the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials. They, however, assured their commitment to following the data and the investigation wherever it may lead.
This prediction market seeks to speculate on whether David Charles Grusch's claims will be substantiated by December 31, 2023. The resolution of this market will be based on official reports or statements from the authorities involved in the investigation, such as the Office of Naval Intelligence, AARO, or any other relevant government body.
For the purpose of this market, 'substantiated' will mean that the claims made by Grusch are officially confirmed as true in part or in full by the investigating authorities.
This is a YES or NO market.
YES: The authorities have officially confirmed that some or all of Grusch's claims are true by December 31, 2023.
NO: The authorities have not confirmed Grusch's claims, have refuted them, or have not released any statement regarding the claims by December 31, 2023.
In the event of ambiguous or contradictory statements from different authorities, the market creator will make the final decision based on the preponderance of the evidence.
|
2023-06-05T20:47:17
|
2023-12-31T19:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:19:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uv7zPfFGMchcFajCJ794
|
Will the DoD confirm they have recovered and currently retain intact UAPs not of terrestrial origin by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-05T15:48:50
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T20:44:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3YdNMO3dE6yVt3rTXfB3
|
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 1/1/2024 be 5% or higher?
|
Using the closing price on Jan 1st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
[link preview]
|
2023-06-05T13:55:47
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:20:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kseHhxD3pAIORSEl97FS
|
Will James Medlock take on another Twitter bet by the end of the year?
|
@JamesMedlock is clearly high on his recent victory against Balaji Srinivasan, and is now asking random people for bets on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1665464362323042306?s=20
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1663564000578379779?s=20
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1658124977017614337?s=20
Will @JamesMedlock take on another bet? To qualify, it must:
Be for real money stakes of any amount (charitable donations count)
Be mutually agreed upon and confirmed by both parties
Be "on Twitter", in the sense that it's between Medlock and another person active on twitter.
It does NOT:
Need to finish or pay out, I'll resolve the market upon mutual agreement and announcement by the bettors.
|
2023-06-05T10:41:58
|
2023-08-26T17:18:47
|
2023-08-26T17:18:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mCxYXMScOlz6JDoEqDs4
|
Will claims of a "retrieved craft of non-human origin" be confirmed by the US government by the end of the year?
|
On June 5th, The Debrief published an article making several claims, including on the existence "deeply covert programs that he says possess retrieved intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin."
A former intelligence official turned whistleblower has given Congress and the Intelligence Community Inspector General extensive classified information about deeply covert programs that he says possess retrieved intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin. The information, he says, has been illegally withheld from Congress, and he filed a complaint alleging that he suffered illegal retaliation for his confidential disclosures, reported here for the first time. Other intelligence officials, both active and retired, with knowledge of these programs through their work in various agencies, have independently provided similar, corroborating information, both on and off the record.
This market resolves to YES if the US government has substantively confirmed the claims in the paragraph above by the end of the year, most notably that they do indeed posess intact crafts they believe to be of non-human origin.
Confirmation must come from a source credibly speaking on behalf of the US government. A whistleblower whose claims are denied or ignored would not count.
Otherwise, resolves NO.
[tweet]
|
2023-06-05T09:34:14
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:47:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YmZEKfU7a8JHGXj2m3CW
|
Apple ($AAPL) to drop at least 5% from all time high during or right after WWDC23 🍏
|
When WWDC23 begins or 24 hrs after the event closure
If AAPL price is 5% lower than historical all time high - solves YES
if price is not lower tha 5% from historical all time high - solves NO
Price here: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ?window=5D
[link preview]
|
2023-06-05T07:09:16
|
2023-06-09T08:59:00
|
2023-06-09T09:07:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6OWcFU6TqfvBgPfpC6dv
|
Will YouTube be blocked in Russia before the end of 2024?
|
Resultion criteria
This question will resolve positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days between market start and December 31, 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.
The 2023 market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AVS/will-youtube-be-blocked-in-russia-b)
|
2023-06-05T00:09:59
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2025-01-02T01:25:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4cMRGJSfzZMbVrllzLLS
|
Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17334/robert-f-kennedy-jr/
|
2023-06-04T15:31:34
|
2024-11-05T00:00:00
|
2024-11-07T06:42:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MfC49TWEPVV6n4vTTcGm
|
Will Turkey veto Sweden’s pending membership in NATO?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-04T15:16:28
|
2024-02-20T08:54:08
|
2024-02-20T08:54:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UiSBzDFZ5Yntn0XiCL5H
|
Will the record for the biggest televised poker pot be broken in 2023?
|
Recently the record was set at , 3.1M
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/27892-watch-tom-durrrr-dwan-drags-record-3-1-million-pot-in-high-stakes-poker-cash-game
|
2023-06-04T14:43:47
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:05:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4hT5SjxqEf4pImyRPSCM
|
Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16560/swedish-nato-membership-by-2024/
|
2023-06-04T13:20:32
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T07:13:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K0qw50lhdAdW4RZjhR7m
|
At the next UK general election, will Labour be promising to block all new North Sea oil and gas exploration?
|
Labour have made a promise to block all new oil and gas projects in the North Sea (source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/labour-confirms-plans-to-block-all-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-projects/).
Significant parts of the press, other parties, and some Labour politicians have strongly opposed this plan and there is speculation that Starmer might change his mind.
This market resolves YES if, at the time the next election happens, this promise is "live" in the sense that it has been made and not scrapped. For example, if they put it in their manifesto and don't explicitly drop it before the election, market resolves YES.
If they attempt a sort of shadow U-turn, and simply not mention the policy again between now and the election (and not publish it in their manifesto) this market resolves NO.
If they drop the promise, then pick it up again, resovles YES. In other words, this market won't resolve early as soon as they drop it; I'll wait for the election. I'm expecting that the manifesto will be the main source of evidence in resolving this - the burden of proof will be on anybody saying that what's in the manifesto doesn't represent Labour's promises at the time of the eleciton.
Any questions, please ask.
|
2023-06-04T12:01:33
|
2024-07-03T23:00:00
|
2024-07-04T01:02:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EL9qAaWdQA5gwKUSSVHk
|
Will Joe Biden and Xi Jinping speak in person during September?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-04T10:56:11
|
2023-09-30T20:59:00
|
2023-10-01T09:33:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1wRB1q6EafZTWMdZzzSV
|
Will Joe Biden and Xi Jinping speak in person during August?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-04T10:55:47
|
2023-08-31T20:59:00
|
2023-08-31T22:21:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NM36vpBaxYc7Sbs8czrU
|
Will RedBull win every race of the 2023 F1 Season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-04T07:39:34
|
2023-09-17T06:52:38
|
2023-09-17T06:52:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4RNstr56CJb9FwqxWv0V
|
Will Joe Biden and Xi Jinping speak via teleconference during October?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-04T07:06:10
|
2023-10-31T20:59:00
|
2023-10-31T22:09:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zQlXUWtO3C0seMdRebur
|
Will Russia control [annex] Transnistria by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-04T04:11:10
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-02-01T22:54:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kgpCdKhy1xKE1m3mKfke
|
Will Trump be indicted by three or more states by the end of 2023?
|
One down, two to go.
|
2023-06-04T01:29:07
|
2023-12-31T20:33:53
|
2023-12-31T20:33:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4hordBJ8ChO0ylCpPQGZ
|
Do you think Imu will be revealed as a male?
|
YES if you think Imu will be revealed as a male.
NO if you think Imu will be revealed as a female.
|
2023-06-04T01:02:46
|
2024-06-24T22:13:35
|
2024-06-24T22:13:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j9gzBTkXphOYKeqnY563
|
Will Chris Christie win any delegates in the 2024 GOP primaries?
|
Delegates are divided strangely in some states.
|
2023-06-03T23:20:40
|
2024-07-17T12:39:51
|
2024-07-17T12:39:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cpGe9ErhdnZ5yhjzGEpO
|
Will GPT-4's parameter count be known by end of 2024?
|
Must be officially released by OpenAI so leaks or off-hand comments do not count.
Extremely wide intervals("between 1000 and 100 trillion") would not be accepted: Endpoints must be within 25% of the mean. So "500-600 billion" would be acceptable because the mean is 550 billion, the 25% variation is [412, 687], and the given interval is contained within it.
|
2023-06-03T19:51:46
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-10T18:53:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hz4Bd9WRB0HtcR0VwBCY
|
Will Nvidia be world's most valuable semiconductor company by market cap in the end of June 2024?
|
In June 30th 2024 I'll enter on https://companiesmarketcap.com/semiconductors/largest-semiconductor-companies-by-market-cap/ and check if Nvidia is world's most valuable semiconductor company by market value. If they are, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
[link preview]
|
2023-06-03T14:17:26
|
2024-06-30T19:59:00
|
2024-07-17T08:39:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eVMxcgJ9IllqIcmEl2Ir
|
Will Sheinbaum win the 2024 Mexican presidential election?
|
Background: On July 7, 2024, the Mexican general election will be held which will include the Mexican presidential election. The president is elected using first-past-the-post voting. According to opinion polls, Claudia Sheinbaum—currently the mayor of Mexico City—is the frontrunner to be the MORENA candidate.
MORENA is the party of the current president, known by his initials as AMLO, who is termed out. This is an Economist piece on AMLO's influence over the election, and Sheinbaum's competitor for the MORENA candidacy, Marcelo Ebrard.
This market will resolve as YES if Sheinbaum is declared the winner of 2024's presidential election by the National Electoral Institute, and NO otherwise.
|
2023-06-03T14:09:07
|
2024-06-04T21:22:40
|
2024-06-04T21:22:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9TQZp43G5nh3uiBX9StJ
|
Will Destiny and Farha have an episode of their Podcast by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T12:54:27
|
2023-07-31T23:59:00
|
2023-08-01T11:31:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NM8Zsv28vzd7UaGDs4lg
|
Will Destiny and Farha have an episode of their Podcast by the end of June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T12:53:52
|
2023-07-01T19:29:00
|
2023-07-01T19:29:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zDf2B1IhWwR5uUKHoRHp
|
Will an episode of Destiny's new talk show/podcast get 750k views on Youtube in 2023
|
Resolves YES if any full episode (45 minutes minimum video duration, does not need to be completely unedited, but can not be a clip/highlight reel etc.) of Destiny's new show reaches 750k views on youtube before 2024 (GMT). Other hosts may vary, including but not limited to Farha and Dan, but Destiny needs to be present in the studio and actively contributing to the discussion on said video.
Engagement on platforms other than Youtube is irrelevant for the purposes of this market.
Other markets:
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T12:51:59
|
2023-12-31T17:00:00
|
2023-12-31T22:04:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fgGhwnZhKDEyYI5Fch2q
|
Will Destiny and Dan have an episode of their Podcast by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T12:51:29
|
2023-07-31T23:59:00
|
2023-08-01T11:31:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DKIFt6dBj5h8eWwsej6B
|
Will Destiny talk to Counterpoints by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:44:47
|
2023-06-11T10:46:57
|
2023-06-11T10:46:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k3u2IXxcvfqq5oErSPRU
|
Will Destiny talk to Taftaj by the end of August?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:43:32
|
2023-08-31T23:59:00
|
2023-09-06T19:40:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8Sdl4wvOoouxJrg5vKSf
|
Will Destiny talk to Adam & Sitch by the end of August?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:41:50
|
2023-08-31T23:59:00
|
2023-09-06T19:40:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6IQDwbw26jQZPs11GLDC
|
Will Destiny talk to Lilypichu by the end of August?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:34:33
|
2023-08-31T23:59:00
|
2023-09-06T19:38:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eT6n1g9VVEqTQo7rUFBe
|
Will Destiny talk to Myron by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:33:16
|
2023-07-12T10:40:08
|
2023-07-12T10:40:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5YOjEFnFCA69O7lD3WHv
|
Will Destiny talk to Adam Sosnick of Valuetainment by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:29:38
|
2023-07-12T10:39:41
|
2023-07-12T10:39:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ErchhBtgnjdNHQBO7UqE
|
Will Destiny talk to Leafy by the end of 2023?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:15:34
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:14:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BaCSnhcKCDh1mWZ8p1SF
|
Will Destiny talk to Ryan Dawson by the end of 2023?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:10:37
|
2023-08-17T01:45:02
|
2023-08-17T01:45:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cszgrDWxjHw9C3mzk26L
|
Will Destiny talk to WickedSupreme by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T11:04:45
|
2023-07-31T23:59:00
|
2023-08-01T11:31:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ysx2Fldtndq6SOvbOl8j
|
Will Destiny talk to xQc by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T10:51:09
|
2023-07-26T20:30:47
|
2023-07-26T20:30:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ak90C8xUBQOpicj3qWZT
|
Will Destiny talk to Rollo by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T10:24:05
|
2023-07-31T23:59:00
|
2023-08-01T11:31:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KxBxu1kZHxPb1XMIXFpI
|
Will Destiny talk to Aella in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T09:59:26
|
2023-07-01T19:29:13
|
2023-07-01T19:29:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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