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forecasting

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mani-tVkH9YD74ZhiFF5fFGA4
Will Suella Braverman lose her job in 2023?
Resolves YES if Suella Braverman ceases to hold the title of Home Secretary, as listed on His Majesty's Government: The Cabinet - MPs and Lords - UK Parliament, before the end of 2023.
2023-05-25T12:49:18
2023-11-13T07:51:06
2023-11-13T07:51:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LKyzqledhgm6a82ck0xT
Will Tim Scott win at least five states in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Tim Scott wins the most delegates in at least five states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements. Similar markets: https://manifold.markets/group/can-candidate-win-states
2023-05-25T12:32:13
2024-05-22T05:38:31
2024-05-22T05:38:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aXYT35CCmuVoIU2WiMjC
Will Daron Acemoglu win a Nobel Prize by 2028?
Will Daron Acemoglu, MIT economist, win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in any year up to and including 2028?
2023-05-24T19:56:12
2024-10-14T06:43:01
2024-10-14T06:43:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-AthhNIWOheeRDuFbquE6
Will Suella Braverman be the Home Secretary on January 1st 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-24T18:37:43
2024-01-01T07:59:00
2024-01-01T10:15:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1prVzpx389rG7G3sIaIH
Will Destiny re-dye his hair blue in 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-24T16:29:51
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-05T19:05:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jDuwH27cgRXJUr4hDbhF
Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 10 weeks before mid 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-24T14:04:33
2024-07-01T23:59:00
2024-07-17T07:55:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PFquJ86tyuUXsWKgTW7G
Will Pep Guardiola hold his head during the Champions League Final game?
If Guardiola is seen with both hands over and touching his head during the official TV international transmission, the market will resolve to YES. Disclaimers: It will only count if Guardiola holds his head during the official game time, that is excluding pre-game, half-time and the time after the final whistle. Both hands on his face (cheeks, chin, etc.), but not on his bald head, will not count. See examples below. The following example would NOT count, as he has only one hand touching his head: [image]The following example would also NOT count, as his hands are only touching his cheeks: [image]The following example WOULD TOTALLY count: [image]
2023-05-24T10:41:16
2023-06-10T13:57:48
2023-06-10T13:58:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QoEPB5mLhTOH0ZPxYcSF
Will the US fail to raise the debt ceiling before June 1 but not default?
Resolves NO if before June 1 (Eastern time), the US raises or suspends the debt ceiling. Resolves NO if the US defaults on its debt in 2023. Resolves YES otherwise (if the US neither raises the debt before June ceiling nor defaults in 2023). This question is intended to help answer: "If the US fails to raise the debt ceiling before June 1, how likely is default?". See also https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b#NCK95nCmDyevr09h9JvA Definitions: Raising or suspending the debt ceiling is defined the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised Default is defined the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-government-default-on-i [link preview]
2023-05-24T09:47:27
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T09:39:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NvY5lr3aYI86IefH92nu
Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before 2030?
This market resolves as Yes if Sam Altman ceases to be CEO of OpenAI, whether because of his resignation, death, transition to a different role, or for any other cause. (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-sam-altman-cease-to-be-ceo-of-fa7bdab46ead)
2023-05-24T09:34:51
2023-11-17T18:38:48
2023-11-17T18:38:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Nf4lGhRwLX3Oa2pD87WJ
Will Kakhovka be liberated by Ukraine before the end of June?
Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia loses control of Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka or Malokakhovka by 30 June, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). [image]If one of these areas is no longer shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded red for the entire time period, the market resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through June 30.
2023-05-24T09:33:30
2023-06-30T14:59:00
2023-06-30T18:35:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aVKOqE1L4n0gvOXV8JFb
Will Lebron James retire before the 2023-24 NBA Season?
Resolves No if Lebron James is on a NBA roster at the start of the 2023 season otherwise resolves Yes. This market will not resolve immediately upon announced retirement and instead wait until the season starts in case he changes his mind.
2023-05-23T14:48:00
2023-10-23T20:59:00
2023-10-25T23:39:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dhtT4AnpnESADIkAEMCv
Will Trump be suspended (again) on Facebook before the end of 2024?
On January 25, 2023, Meta announced they were removing the suspension from Trump's account: https://about.fb.com/news/2023/01/trump-facebook-instagram-account-suspension/ On the post they stated: In the event that Mr. Trump posts further violating content, the content will be removed and he will be suspended for between one month and two years, depending on the severity of the violation. For the purpose of this market, Trump being suspended from posting for any length of time counts.
2023-05-23T12:54:22
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T19:25:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EBhpZQT1YI9v27dGgPfk
Will Destiny talk to Brian from Whatever Podcast again by the end of June?
[markets]
2023-05-23T12:45:44
2023-06-21T17:58:51
2023-06-21T17:58:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HT266XsdzSUjGfVQeaPl
Will President Xi and President Biden meet at the APEC meeting in Nov 2023 in San Francisco?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-23T11:23:04
2023-11-16T20:33:43
2023-11-16T20:33:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3bPSt9h0ZtfAcfo6WPvk
Will Manchester United beat Chelsea in the Premier League?
Resolves YES if Manchester United wins against Chelsea in their Premier League match on May 25, 2023. Resolves NO if Chelsea wins or the match ends in a draw.
2023-05-23T09:31:46
2023-05-25T14:07:43
2023-05-25T14:07:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uDnLR317KR13yiGl14L1
Will there be an Attack on a synagogue in Florida in 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-23T09:27:06
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-04T06:05:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0fRf67M7sWWeTUPKyeKE
Will Haifa be successfully attacked by rockets, missiles, mortars, air bombs, or kamikaze drones before the end of 2023?
This market resolves YES if it becomes publicly known that at least one enemy rocket, mortar, missile, air bomb, or kamikaze drone reached Haifa and caused some damage between the market start and the end of 2023. Author betting policy. I will bet on this market. See also: [markets]
2023-05-23T02:15:26
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2023-12-31T14:44:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-K9ZQakVuohKmwikxqkgF
Does Miami win more than 2.5 games in the NBA finals vs the Nuggets?
Over/under bet. If Miami wins 0(including missing the finals),1 or 2 out of 7 the bet resolves NO. If Miami win 3 or 4 games, resolves YES.
2023-05-22T21:13:01
2023-06-12T21:29:56
2023-06-12T21:29:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M7VhBw6gcMM4GuxAGeGD
Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17176/ai-takes-down-stock-exchange-before-2025/ Erratic trading in stock markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE is an increasing problem, though as of May 2023, not directly due to AI, though perhaps due to high-frequency trading (HFT). Examples of Flash Crashes were the 2010 drop of 1,000 points in the DOW for disputed reasons and the 2022 European stock flash crash due to human error. In May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a temporary huge drop in stock markets. In all of these cases, prices recovered quickly and no exchanges were halted.
2023-05-22T19:00:32
2024-12-31T12:00:00
2025-01-01T04:18:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hBgCxpxcQgT9FCPQqeRX
Will Tim Scott be the GOP nominee for VICE president in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-22T14:04:49
2024-07-15T12:30:48
2024-07-15T12:30:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QCKKpiPNqGkeAALkvJ2D
Will Nikki Haley be the GOP nominee for either president or vice president in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-22T14:04:08
2024-07-15T12:30:52
2024-07-15T12:30:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lWri8zvtiL7CNoACkr1f
Will Apple have a valuation >=$3 trillion by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if Apple trades at or above a $3T valuation. https://g.co/finance/AAPL:NASDAQ [link preview]
2023-05-22T13:46:51
2023-06-30T06:44:41
2023-06-30T06:44:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-oJmTx7IYE3E6PYCEPWTB
Will the Straw Hats reach Elbaf in the manga in 2023?
A chapter clearly showing at least one Straw Hat on or near the shores of Elbaf
2023-05-22T12:22:50
2023-12-29T00:04:55
2023-12-29T00:04:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Szy4lEJcCrbGnyPXrw1x
Will there ever be another failed Falcon booster landing?
SpaceX is the only company so far who have propulsively landed an orbital rocket booster. So far they've landed 194 of them in 205 attempts, with most failures happening at the start. They've had a success streak of 120 launches. It seems like they've figured it all out — on the other hand, they keep pushing the limits with hotter reentries and shorter suicide burns. Will they maintain their streak? This market resolves Yes if a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy attempts to land one of its boosters, but fails. Resolves No if Falcons are retired without this happening. Falcon heavy center cores and side cores both count, besides normal Falcon 9 boosters. A failure of the booster at any point after stage separation counts, for example if it fails due to a faulty boostback burn or reentry burn. If a failure happens before stage separation, it does not count for this market. If SpaceX intentionally expends a booster or blows it up for test purposes, it does not count for this market. See also: @/Mqrius/will-spacex-falcon-launch-at-least @/Mqrius/will-spacex-falcon-launch-at-least-3ac98b0cb008 @/Mqrius/will-spacex-falcon-launch-at-least-fd67f96710f5 @/Mqrius/will-spacex-falcon-launch-at-least-062170c6b2a1
2023-05-22T10:28:16
2024-08-28T01:10:51
2024-08-28T01:10:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-W593cWr1pmCT0p9wiwHZ
Will Grimes release a full length album in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-22T08:25:49
2023-12-31T08:02:47
2023-12-31T08:02:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oE4K0KQmkxEIou5mjX14
Will Tesla have a ChatGPT moment in self-driving cars by 2024 year-end?
Elon says that Tesla will soon have a chat GPT moment in self-driving cars "Yes, so I think Tesla is going to play an important role in AI and AGI. And I think I need to oversee that to make sure it's good. So because that's a thorny problem if there ever was one. I think generally, people do not -- very few people, even in the AI community, do not appreciate just how much capability Tesla has in AI. It's by far the most advanced real-world AI. There's no one even close. And reality has the most degrees of freedom. So I got to make sure that's good. We will have a launch event and we'll explore the issues in more detail. But I should say that...Tesla has actually tremendous capability in real-world AI. Yes. In fact, it is. Very far ahead of anyone. I don't know. People do talk about it online. I think Tesla will have a chat GPT moment maybe if not this year, I'd say no later than next year. You're gonna have a sort of chat GPT moment. Suddenly 3 million cars will be able to drive themselves with no one, and then 5 million cars and then 10 million cars." I'll rely in the mainstream media calling it a ChatGPT moment, Google trends, how other automakers and tech companies react, demand for Tesla's cars, and my personal judgement to determine if Tesla has a ChatGPT moment. ChatGPT was launched in Nov 30th 2022 and I think it took some time to acknolwege how big the cultural impact was, therefore I will wait until February 2025 to close this market. I can close this market to YES early. If Tesla announcement is made in early 2025, it doesn't count.
2023-05-22T08:00:59
2025-01-04T04:39:14
2025-01-04T04:39:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FxpNqBVG6NIvmZFVqG1P
Will Instagram (META) new text-based app 'Threads' overtake Twitter before 2024?
Resolve YES if number of active users reported are higher than Twitter ones on Dec, 31st 2023. Context: https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/19/23730070/instagram-twitter-app-competitor-leak [image]Image: Lia Haberman
2023-05-22T05:40:41
2023-12-31T07:59:00
2023-12-31T08:08:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-D6ekmoxn2FsYpY82TJ8F
Will the Miami Heat win at least two games in the NBA Finals 2023?
Resolves YES if the Miami Heat win two, three, or four games in the NBA Finals 2023. Resolves NO otherwise (including the case that they do not make the finals).
2023-05-22T04:11:16
2023-06-13T00:02:31
2023-06-13T00:02:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vSsCFIjHeKRVfAE8gCsy
Will 'Starfield' win any awards at The Game Awards 2023?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfield_(video_game) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards
2023-05-22T02:58:17
2023-12-07T19:45:34
2023-12-07T19:45:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fQF7vJXpXxd6A9ApouYB
Will the Wagner group stop operating in Ukraine by the end of Jun 2023?
YES = if multiple reliable sources confirm that the Wagner group has ceased its operations in Ukraine entirely. Temporary halts to recuperate will not count.
2023-05-21T15:29:49
2023-06-30T23:59:00
2023-07-04T00:24:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tfKR5YWmAr6rklEdxIHL
Will Ukraine retake western Bakhmut by June 15?
Resolution Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO. For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control). Resolution details Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the coordinates specified above. Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the source of truth will be the date of the map updates on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates. See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time. [link preview][link preview][link preview][link preview]
2023-05-21T12:50:41
2023-06-15T20:59:00
2023-06-16T07:16:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Nfl4W6sAYuvTGHdcnu7W
Will any country announce a commitment of F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before July?
Resolves YES if any country announces a commitment of at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine, before July 2023. Otherwise NO. https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/19/politics/biden-g7-f-16-ukraine/index.html President Joe Biden informed G7 leaders on Friday that the US will support a joint effort with allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on fourth generation aircraft, including F-16s, a senior administration official tells CNN. See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15003/f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-by-2024/ for more info. [link preview]
2023-05-21T12:33:08
2023-06-30T20:59:00
2023-07-01T22:11:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ga5qw2T3GYuq7gfjzUPr
Will the S&P 500 close higher on May 23th than it closed on May 22th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
2023-05-21T10:57:12
2023-05-23T11:00:00
2023-05-23T13:53:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pqns7MPHejGwyegRR2rH
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield' at any point before 2025?
Resolution will be based on Nintendo's official Investor Relations information. If at any point before 2025 in any of Nintendo's updates to the Top Selling Title Sales Units financial data (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html), 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' is listed as having more copies sold than 'Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield', this market will resolve to YES. If 2025 begins and Nintendo has never released data showing that TotK has sold more copies than Sw/Sh, this market will resolve to NO. For reference, at the time of market creation, 'Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield' is listed as having sold 25.82 million copies as of the March 31st, 2023 update to the figures.
2023-05-21T09:55:18
2024-12-31T08:05:33
2024-12-31T08:05:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eFYcbT7qxyyhBw9DCnAM
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Breath of the Wild' at any point before 2025?
Resolution will be based on Nintendo's official Investor Relations information. If at any point before 2025 in any of Nintendo's updates to the Top Selling Title Sales Units financial data (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html), 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' is listed as having more copies sold than 'The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild', this market will resolve to YES. If 2025 begins and Nintendo has never released data showing that TotK has sold more copies than BotW, this market will resolve to NO. For reference, at the time of market creation, BotW is listed as having sold 29.81 million copies as of the March 31st, 2023 update to the figures.
2023-05-21T09:48:49
2024-12-31T08:12:38
2024-12-31T08:12:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wSLeVmVmLtkkLJKhi9t6
Will turnout increase in the second round of the Turkey 2023 presidential election?
Will turnout increase in the second round, when compared to the first round? According to wikipedia the first round turnout (including blank votes) was: 55,833,153. A tie will resolve as no.
2023-05-20T18:55:27
2023-05-28T19:11:57
2023-05-28T19:12:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3Wg0gNJO203RxcKqOKr5
Will Apple sell more than 750k Vision Pro headsets before January 20th, 2025?
Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered)
2023-05-20T11:54:13
2025-01-20T15:59:00
2025-01-25T23:44:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v5ttrUBOOxVd9ejbzcLB
Will Apple sell more than 500k Vision Pro headsets before January 20th, 2025?
Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered)
2023-05-20T11:49:45
2025-01-20T15:59:00
2025-01-25T23:44:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kkl2NtGp5Skf0URS8oHx
Will Germany hit their 2023 energy transition targets for solar and wind energy?
Germany aims to extend their wind energy production by 3,9 GW and their solar energy production by 9 GW. This market resolves YES as soon as the expansion targets for wind and solar have been achieved in 2023. It resolves NO if they are achieved later. Progress as of 20th of Mai: [image]You can get fairly regular updates on the progress here: https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-deutschland-gaspreis-spritpreis-energieversorgung (German content but the graphs should be understandable for non-german speakers)
2023-05-20T07:25:13
2023-12-23T03:13:06
2023-12-23T03:13:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uC4WLRguSt3vC9LRHQ6O
Will Meta create a competitor to Twitter by the midsummer?
If it is created, It has to come out from the beta testing into masses for the market to resolve YES. Upd.0 Midsummer is 15 July, as hinted in the close date. Upd.1 "Going into masses" for the purpose of the market means that a new user can enter the network 1) without being tester or anyhow affiliated with META, AND 2) without needing an invitation. Upd.2 The app being unavailable in EU does not affect the question (because VPN exists). Upd4: Deleted: "Upd.3 Resolves after the close date." Adding: Resolves 08july, because the conditions are met and there is no possibility to revert what's already happened.
2023-05-20T04:49:48
2023-07-08T05:44:12
2023-07-08T05:44:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6cmhDhFtNr7CI8BisJea
Will bitcoin end 2023 above 40k?
Resolution source to be the main bitcoin chart on CoinMarketCap.
2023-05-20T04:38:18
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T08:23:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-f1cHvPbyvCifYYEqdiVz
Will Ukraine receive F-16s by the end of Jan 2024?
YES = if UAF is in possession of the jets or if the jets are being physically transported to Ukraine. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-ukraine-receive-f16s-by-the-en)
2023-05-19T22:27:47
2024-01-31T16:59:00
2024-01-31T17:25:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6VRC3VaJnV7cumiRuopc
Will Ukraine receive F-16s by the end of Oct 2023?
YES = if UAF is in possession of the jets or if the jets are being physically transported to Ukraine. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-ukraine-receive-f16s-by-the-en-969b6847651b)
2023-05-19T22:26:35
2023-10-31T17:10:53
2023-10-31T17:10:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KQDh7pAIL4draxFSSYJw
Will Pakistan default by 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-19T17:38:24
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-27T14:06:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9
Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?
Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 2023. Resolves NO otherwise. We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may address any sorts of risks from powerful AI.
2023-05-19T16:04:22
2023-05-30T03:23:39
2023-05-30T03:23:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lcyMUWtHwPoUr42EZEIf
Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of May 25th
Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by the end of May 25th. Resolves NO if not.
2023-05-19T07:33:30
2023-05-25T05:19:07
2023-05-25T05:19:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4gx3LJJkJHOOyQXxip7p
Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of May 24th
Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by the end of May 24th. Resolves NO if not.
2023-05-19T07:32:59
2023-05-25T05:18:47
2023-05-25T05:18:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-P9i802l7H03rxbRYkI5J
Will the Crystal Ballin’ podcast release an episode before September?
Refers to the air date of the episode, not the recording date. Final hours update: This will be considered from the point of view of the US Pacific time zone like the close time suggests. I will use my best judgement in determining the exact time it first comes out on a major platform (YouTube, Spotify or Apple Music would all count). If it comes out on a major platform but I'm pretty uncertain about whether the time was in September, I'll lean toward resolving NO. If it only comes out on other platforms but there's no indication of where it can be found linked in the comments below by the close time, I'll resolve NO in that case as well.
2023-05-19T07:17:07
2023-09-01T00:00:00
2023-09-01T00:43:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1FuzWK0iXINu9sdRKpZX
Will the Denver Broncos win more than five games in the 2023 regular season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-19T06:23:13
2023-11-26T22:51:19
2023-11-26T22:51:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4ckoaUS0KbEh32L3JHPT
Will the New York Jets win more than seven games in the 2023 regular season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-19T06:20:39
2023-12-29T05:28:21
2023-12-29T05:28:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qujKki1Tpm2d6P0pW8cA
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win more than eight games in the 2023 regular season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-19T06:17:06
2024-01-05T07:59:00
2024-01-08T01:11:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sT2Aswe1nusNJCXan4Nu
Will Nintendo release a new Pokémon game by the end of 2023
Vote yes if you think Nintendo will try to make another cash grab. Arceus was amazing. But earlier when they released the Diamond and Pearl remake. Lets just say it was not great. P.S. remakes will also count and spinoffs.
2023-05-19T06:16:58
2023-11-06T08:36:06
2023-11-06T08:36:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-oOZtRE70KGvdrsHCa3ad
Will the Philadelphia Eagles lose more than three games in the 2023 regular season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-19T05:59:08
2023-12-19T01:11:47
2023-12-19T01:11:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1Pis7tD7iFTJwv7tU3Nn
Will there be at least 20 US bank failures in 2023-2024?
Resolves YES if the number of US bank failures listed on https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ during 2023 and 2024 is at least 20. Otherwise NO. As of this question's creation, there have been 3 so far: Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank.
2023-05-19T05:58:04
2024-12-31T15:01:21
2024-12-31T15:01:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Xn9mZpQHk4JJj93HspOg
Will Ukraine receive non-Russian fighter jets (Oct 2024 limit)
This market is about credible reporting of the aircraft arriving in Ukraine AND being under control of the Ukrainian army/state. Market will resolve YES once such reports are made public, otherwise it resolves to NO on 1st November 2024. If there are rumours/uncofirmed reports of jets arriving arround the close date, I will wait with resolution until it is clear whether the jets actually arrived before close date. While fighter jets are the most likely to be delivered first, any non-russian/soviet manned fixed-wing aircraft with jet propulsion that can serve a primarily combat role will count (e.g. transport aircraft like C-40 won't count, jet-propelled bomber aircraft like B-52 would count, combat capable jets that are however mostly used as trainers like Aero L-159 would count). Delivery of Russian/soviet designs (e.g. Migs from Slovakia) will not count. A market on actualy type being announced: (https://manifold.markets/embed/MartinModrak/which-nonrussian-fighter-jet-will-b)
2023-05-19T04:52:05
2024-08-04T08:21:07
2024-08-05T02:05:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CbM9g0IOjmlQ80GTa2hv
Will Gemini achieve a higher score on the SAT compared to GPT-4?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-18T20:11:54
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-06T08:17:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JD3pfmWZEuhsYFhwNrUI
Will there be Section 230 reform before 2025?
Section 230 is a portion of US law that protects internet content providers from being liable for information that is posted on their sites. For example, if terrorists post content on Twitter, Twitter is not liable for having hosted that content. It has proved controversial in recent years, with politicians from both parties critizing it. However, their criticisms have often come from different directions, and there are many who still support keeping the current policy and view it as key for protecting free speech and innovation. In addition, passing any controversial legislation through the current Congress could be difficult. The last time that it was modified was by the FOSTA-SESTA bills in 2018, which amended it to no longer protect sex trafficking. Some proposed bills that would modify it include the EARN-IT Act of 2020, the SAFE TECH Act, and the Justice Against Malicious Algorithms Act. Will Section 230 be modified before the end of the 118th Congress, on January 3rd, 2025? This includes any type of modification, including amendments, regardless of the scope or impact. An executive order or state law would not be sufficient to count, but a law that causes it to be interpreted differently would count. For example, a law that introduces a commission that can remove Section 230 immunities from a specific company would count.
2023-05-18T17:53:34
2024-12-31T16:10:42
2024-12-31T16:10:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UOC8noqaySgNsEdsajRb
Will Wembanyama play 65 games or more in the 2023-2024 NBA Season?
I will resolve this as soon as he reaches 65 games played or it's impossible for him to reach 65. I will use basketball-reference.com for games played stats.
2023-05-18T13:38:33
2024-04-02T08:23:17
2024-04-02T08:23:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-g1wqbYJOcYRBQfQEkIC5
NFL: Will the Kansas City Chiefs have a better 2023 season than the Philadelphia Eagles?
The team with the better season is the one that advances the furthest in the playoffs. If neither team reaches the playoffs or is defeated at the same stage, it will be determined by regular season standings. The same tiebreakers as used to determine the NFL draft order will be applied if the teams have an identical win-loss-tie regular season record.
2023-05-18T11:45:06
2024-01-16T14:29:22
2024-01-16T14:29:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DEpGfffvs0G5Ki24PC8s
Will bard overtake chatGPT in Google search trends (2023)? ($400M subsidy)
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bard,chatGPT&hl=en Variations on upper/lower case and space between chat and GPT allowed.
2023-05-18T08:59:02
2023-12-31T10:29:00
2023-12-31T11:22:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WkHSuTQlEqfS1g1uPsxz
Will Trump be the Vice Presidential candidate for the GOP in 2024?
Potentially 12 years of immunity if he goes this route and wins, which seems much more likely to happen than the route that sees him as president and a maximum of 4 more years of consequences delayed. As VP it would basically end his legal troubles permanently, and I think he wins from the backseat. I feel sick now that I have thought of this because it's obviously inevitable once it's realized he can't win at the top. The party will offer this to him. Nobody tell Rob Desantis this idea.
2023-05-18T06:37:46
2024-07-15T12:31:07
2024-07-15T12:31:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AD1dU63TL1SzklC2DXqQ
Will 'Diablo IV' win any award at The Game Awards 2023?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_IV
2023-05-18T05:13:32
2023-12-07T19:46:40
2023-12-07T19:46:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nMwIGx1fWXkkaWHbctp6
Will "Oppenheimer" have a >70% Rotten Tomatoes score two weeks after release?
By tomatometer score listed on Rotten Tomatoes
2023-05-18T04:23:43
2023-08-03T23:59:00
2023-08-04T00:13:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-a2w0UtmDwWUpk5T8EtRd
Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump?
Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Nikki Haley endorses or says she intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Haley says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral.
2023-05-18T00:12:50
2024-05-22T14:22:10
2024-05-22T14:22:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DjPvPOJBhaUUkL9Rr5Pd
Will Mike Pence endorse Trump?
Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Pence says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral.
2023-05-18T00:11:25
2024-11-05T21:23:24
2024-11-05T21:23:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tU1f2izprX2HHsXfMFRE
UEFA Champions League Finals: Manchester city vs Inter Milan
Manchester City = YES Inter Milan = NO Who will win?
2023-05-17T13:52:55
2023-06-10T14:05:14
2023-06-10T14:05:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tEhcQokZsobezIHO5Ruf
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of June?
[markets]
2023-05-17T13:45:22
2023-06-30T15:00:00
2023-07-01T19:24:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0nqJOrHGdcXFsEYcC0Fk
Will there be more than 15 named storms during the 2023 hurricane season (June-November)?
Atlantic hurricane season June 1 - November 30.
2023-05-17T11:24:41
2023-11-01T16:10:47
2023-11-01T16:10:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UzxFsvytdfHZx937pMJr
Will there be more than 11 tropical storms with hurricane force winds during the 2023 hurricane season (June-November)?
Atlantic Hurricane season June 1 - September 30. NC State weather agency forecasts between 11-15 hurricanes this season. NOAA forecast to be issued May 25.
2023-05-17T08:39:05
2023-12-31T02:52:07
2023-12-31T02:52:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fBqhqPELuNeNMAeiRTX2
Will the Panthers win the Stanley Cup.
They're currently in the semi finals and have a decent chance of winning. This market resolves YES if the Pathers win the 2023 Stanley Cup.
2023-05-17T08:23:31
2023-06-14T08:11:56
2023-06-14T08:11:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DbTpTpdhRV8s63r4TN8Z
Will Joe Biden host any head of state at his personal residence in Delaware during his presidency?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-17T06:41:08
2025-01-02T09:13:18
2025-01-02T09:13:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5HVBEJNKU9YkP8WnY0w2
Will Oppenheimer gross more than $1 billion within the first six months of its release?
Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-oppenheimer-gross-more-than-80)
2023-05-16T23:06:50
2024-01-21T00:23:02
2024-01-21T00:23:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aijeqVWn0zzSloPuDIwI
Will Oppenheimer gross more than $800 million within the first six months of its release?
Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-oppenheimer-gross-more-than-1)
2023-05-16T23:05:09
2023-09-03T18:08:25
2023-09-03T18:08:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-A3DjyLZRLKdZK7tMF4H9
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' release before 1st October, 2023?
In any timezone. Must be full release, not a beta or early access or review copies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollow_Knight:_Silksong
2023-05-16T18:47:29
2023-10-02T05:30:00
2023-10-02T17:28:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xOtp7VeRLYDojWqjCttH
Will Sweden join NATO by the end of November?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-16T18:42:09
2023-11-30T13:59:00
2023-11-30T14:39:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-80L0VKpeMkG4Qby5748j
Will Sweden join NATO by the end of October?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-16T18:41:46
2023-11-01T03:45:00
2023-11-02T08:04:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-86zGte1gg5hmpHy5x4Fc
Will Sweden join NATO by the end of September?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-16T18:41:22
2023-09-30T13:59:00
2023-10-02T06:00:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9aMrFoAj83IJXLGuMUQY
Will Sweden join NATO by the end of August?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-16T18:40:48
2023-08-31T13:59:00
2023-09-01T03:41:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sfRIvXvKk1rzyxsGgsmY
Will the US debt ceiling be raised before June 20?
Resolves YES if the US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended before June 20, otherwise NO. Notes: Removing or temporarily suspending the debt ceiling counts as YES. Only passage of US law counts for resolution. E.g. circumventing or ignoring the debt limit doesn't matter for this question. If the US defaults and then raises the debt ceiling aftewards before the question deadline, that still counts as YES. This question uses Eastern time.
2023-05-16T16:46:45
2023-06-03T13:14:46
2023-06-03T13:14:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-M5mJLOsVayDknYcs8OJD
Will the US debt ceiling be raised before June 10?
Resolves YES if the US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended before June 10, otherwise NO. Notes: Removing or temporarily suspending the debt ceiling counts as YES. Only passage of US law counts for resolution. E.g. circumventing or ignoring the debt limit doesn't matter for this question. If the US defaults and then raises the debt ceiling aftewards before the question deadline, that still counts as YES. This question uses Eastern time. Related questions: [markets]@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b @/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
2023-05-16T16:46:23
2023-06-03T13:15:35
2023-06-03T13:15:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Eb6Hha4x7ovJHxJokBre
Will GPT-4's max context window increase by the end of 2023?
Anthropic recently announced Claude-100k, a version of their Large Language Model Claude with an 100k token context window. Will OpenAI follow suit by increasing the max context length of GPT-4 before the end of 2023 (Dec 31 2023, 11:59 PM GMT)? "GPT-4" is defined as: Any product commonly referred to as "gpt-4" or similar by OpenAI. Names like "gpt-4-0314," "gpt-4-multimodal-2," "gpt-4," or "gpt-4-oct," would count as long as they are commonly referred to as GPT-4 and build off the original GPT-4 models. "gpt-4-plus," "gpt-4.5," or "gpt-4.1" would not count unless OpenAI regularly calls them GPT-4 and the consensus is that they are newer versions of gpt-4. It need not be accessible to the general public, but someone must be regularly selling it (so if they sell it to companies only, it would count) Resolves YES if: - Any version of GPT-4 has a max context of more than 32,769 text tokens AT ANY POINT within 2023. Resolves NO if: - The max context window of all versions of GPT-4 remains at 32,769 text tokens, or decreases. - Giving GPT-4 more context is discussed in writing, or an experimental version with more context is benchmarked, but no product is released. - Multimodal GPT-4 has a separate context length for images, but the max text length does not go above 32,769 tokens. Resolves N/A if: - A new version of GPT-4 is released, but we don't know what it's context length is by the end of 2023. - It is unclear whether a model with a higher text token maximum than 32,769 is GPT-4 based on the above definition. (ex. GPT-4 gets leaked somehow, someone makes edits to it to increase the context length, Sam Altman calls it GPT-4 informally, but OpenAI doesn't call it GPT-4 officially) If OpenAI changes their name, their new name will be valid in place of "OpenAI" written anywhere in the resolution criteria.
2023-05-16T14:12:29
2023-11-11T06:37:52
2023-11-11T06:37:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4T8xhM5hgQkjNQVOmuyR
Will the Ukrainian army launch a large scale counter-offense before July 2023?
This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim their land before the end of June 2023. Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before July 1st. Not if there are some probing attacks that may become larger afterwards. As the resolution is subjective, I will not bet in it.
2023-05-16T12:19:48
2023-06-09T08:16:50
2023-06-09T08:16:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-j4EbCV4042tMQCXOOBST
Will the Ukrainian army launch a large scale counter-offense before June 2023?
This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim their land before the end of May 2023. Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before June 1st. Not if there are some probing attacks that may become larger afterwards. As the resolution is subjective, I will not bet in it.
2023-05-16T12:18:55
2023-06-01T11:17:22
2023-06-01T11:17:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jlpwt2dGISevSmhB1Zct
Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debate?
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17103/ai-in-2024-presidential-debates/ AI and its ability to have broad impacts on society, became much more common topics in news and social media in early 2023 with the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT. US Presidential debates, however, generally focus on a set of more narrowly framed societal issues. For example, the 2020 debates between Biden and Trump had segments on each of "fighting COVID-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security, and leadership".
2023-05-16T08:19:43
2024-10-31T12:00:00
2024-10-31T18:02:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-In9iiDVzufQ111gMSXrZ
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?
On the Russ Roberts ECONTALK Podcast #893, guest Tyler Cowen challenges Eliezer Yudkowsky and the Less Wrong/EA Alignment communities to develop a mathematical model for AI X-Risk. https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-risks-and-impact-of-artificial-intelligence/ This market resolves to "YES" if Tyler Cowen publicly acknowledges, by October 15 2023, that an actual mathematical model of AI X-Risk has been developed. Two clips from the conversation: https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxtf8ZD3FSvs8TAM2lhqlWvRh7xo7bISkp ...But, I mean, here would be my initial response to Eliezer. I've been inviting people who share his view simply to join the discourse. So, they have the sense, 'Oh, we've been writing up these concerns for 20 years and no one listens to us.' My view is quite different. I put out a call and asked a lot of people I know, well-informed people, 'Is there any actual mathematical model of this process of how the world is supposed to end?' So, if you look, say, at COVID or climate change fears, in both cases, there are many models you can look at, including--and then models with data. I'm not saying you have to like those models. But the point is: there's something you look at and then you make up your mind whether or not you like those models; and then they're tested against data... https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx4msoNRn5ryBWhrIZS-oQml8NpStT_FEU ...So, when it comes to AGI and existential risk, it turns out as best I can ascertain, in the 20 years or so we've been talking about this seriously, there isn't a single model done. Period. Flat out. So, I don't think any idea should be dismissed. I've just been inviting those individuals to actually join the discourse of science. 'Show us your models. Let us see their assumptions and let's talk about those.'...
2023-05-16T04:30:31
2023-10-15T21:59:00
2023-10-16T02:14:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BMZMY57hy12ycQDiwwL9
Will Joe Biden get impeached by the House?
YES = If Joe Biden gets impeached by the House during his current term. NO = Otherwise. Recent developments: https://www.newsweek.com/what-joe-biden-impeachment-will-look-like-1798553
2023-05-16T01:13:20
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-04T03:17:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tiFpsFgajsXUP3F6t8vX
Will Lukashenko survive 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-15T22:59:46
2023-12-31T20:25:17
2023-12-31T20:25:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lrW5elN7zOc84KhJz0HT
Will Ukraine hold western Bakhmut on May 31?
Resolution Resolves YES if on May 31, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO. For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control). Note: this question resolves based on control on the specified date only. (For example, if Russia takes control and then Ukraine retakes control and holds it on the specified date, the prior Russian control doesn't affect resolution. The question is written this way because Ukraine has recently retaken some ground near Bakhmut.) Resolution details Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the coordinates specified above. Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the source of truth will be the date of the map updates on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates. See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time.
2023-05-15T20:00:08
2023-05-31T20:59:00
2023-05-31T21:05:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OUQTxX5ep3HUdwN0WPUs
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games). Since each game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. Additional Markets: [markets]
2023-05-15T19:06:45
2023-05-29T19:43:42
2023-05-29T19:44:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zQ59QKqpWj0lk8C7Dy1N
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 7 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 6 games. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547678 Additional Markets: [markets]
2023-05-15T19:05:39
2023-05-29T19:43:38
2023-05-29T19:44:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YC0EGqrwOecMcg2FiUts
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 6 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 5 games. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547676 Additional Markets: [markets]
2023-05-15T19:04:57
2023-05-27T20:30:00
2023-05-27T20:40:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ayqCrMk0ekVUboVHksPS
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 4 games. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547675 Additional Markets: [markets]
2023-05-15T19:03:29
2023-05-25T20:30:00
2023-05-26T08:09:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ecgTT8NL0J3Zk8ylF0mJ
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547674 Additional Markets: [markets]
2023-05-15T19:02:18
2023-05-23T20:30:00
2023-05-24T04:57:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cQkdVQjTcAOYMtwHsGr7
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547673 Additional Markets: [markets]
2023-05-15T18:59:43
2023-05-21T20:30:00
2023-05-22T03:58:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eIGRTRslY4G8bhGXPv6l
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547672 Additional Markets: [markets]
2023-05-15T18:59:00
2023-05-19T19:59:47
2023-05-19T20:00:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qmNrSaQ7VKuu9CMpITEx
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547671 Additional Markets: [markets]
2023-05-15T18:58:17
2023-05-17T20:22:45
2023-05-17T20:23:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JMCuWJPCULMfTQOdMmNg
Will Destiny say some variation of I'm curious/I'm _ curious during the debate with Rollo on Fresh and Fit?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-15T18:00:17
2023-05-15T19:33:22
2023-05-15T19:33:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-iHARXdgfRTnayS84YHJD
Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17090/russia-damages-patriot-air-defense-system/ On Friday, May 12, two US officials told news sources that Russia launched a hypersonic Kh-47 Kinzhal missile towards a Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine. Ukraine has at least two such batteries, one from the United States and one from Germany. The Patriot missile system has a powerful radar to detect incoming targets at long-range, making it a potent air defense platform capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and more. But the radar emission necessary to spot threats at a distance also makes it possible for the enemy to detect the Patriot battery and figure out its location. And unlike some shorter-range air defenses provided to Ukraine that are mobile and harder to target, the large Patriot battery is a stationary system, making it possible for the Russians to zero in on the location over time. Ukraine said the Russian hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot battery. According to the US Congressional Research Service, a new Patriot battery
2023-05-15T15:28:52
2023-06-30T11:00:00
2023-07-01T05:03:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7yx3XLTRd5oyqv85HQjW
Will OpenAI opensource a 12B parameter model by the end of 2023 with performance matching the original GPT-3?
12Bish, anywhere from 10-15B is fine. Lower is also cool, a 1B parameter model that matches performance will resolve yes.
2023-05-15T10:55:26
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T07:08:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xNO1IRIP9cUZHiXBz7SU
Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Suella Braverman?
Resolves to YES if the next leader of the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak is Suella Braverman. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, it still counts; if the party dissolves or ceases to exist, this will resolve N/A. I will extend the close date if necessary.
2023-05-15T10:20:01
2024-11-02T09:47:07
2024-11-02T09:47:07
no
MANIFOLD