id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-tVkH9YD74ZhiFF5fFGA4 | Will Suella Braverman lose her job in 2023? | Resolves YES if Suella Braverman ceases to hold the title of Home Secretary, as listed on His Majesty's Government: The Cabinet - MPs and Lords - UK Parliament, before the end of 2023. | 2023-05-25T12:49:18 | 2023-11-13T07:51:06 | 2023-11-13T07:51:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LKyzqledhgm6a82ck0xT | Will Tim Scott win at least five states in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Tim Scott wins the most delegates in at least five states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's of... | 2023-05-25T12:32:13 | 2024-05-22T05:38:31 | 2024-05-22T05:38:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aXYT35CCmuVoIU2WiMjC | Will Daron Acemoglu win a Nobel Prize by 2028? | Will Daron Acemoglu, MIT economist, win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in any year up to and including 2028? | 2023-05-24T19:56:12 | 2024-10-14T06:43:01 | 2024-10-14T06:43:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AthhNIWOheeRDuFbquE6 | Will Suella Braverman be the Home Secretary on January 1st 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-24T18:37:43 | 2024-01-01T07:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:15:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1prVzpx389rG7G3sIaIH | Will Destiny re-dye his hair blue in 2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-24T16:29:51 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-05T19:05:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jDuwH27cgRXJUr4hDbhF | Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 10 weeks before mid 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-24T14:04:33 | 2024-07-01T23:59:00 | 2024-07-17T07:55:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PFquJ86tyuUXsWKgTW7G | Will Pep Guardiola hold his head during the Champions League Final game? | If Guardiola is seen with both hands over and touching his head during the official TV international transmission, the market will resolve to YES.
Disclaimers:
It will only count if Guardiola holds his head during the official game time, that is excluding pre-game, half-time and the time after the final whistle.
Bo... | 2023-05-24T10:41:16 | 2023-06-10T13:57:48 | 2023-06-10T13:58:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QoEPB5mLhTOH0ZPxYcSF | Will the US fail to raise the debt ceiling before June 1 but not default? | Resolves NO if before June 1 (Eastern time), the US raises or suspends the debt ceiling.
Resolves NO if the US defaults on its debt in 2023.
Resolves YES otherwise (if the US neither raises the debt before June ceiling nor defaults in 2023).
This question is intended to help answer: "If the US fails to raise the deb... | 2023-05-24T09:47:27 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:39:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NvY5lr3aYI86IefH92nu | Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before 2030? | This market resolves as Yes if Sam Altman ceases to be CEO of OpenAI, whether because of his resignation, death, transition to a different role, or for any other cause.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-sam-altman-cease-to-be-ceo-of-fa7bdab46ead) | 2023-05-24T09:34:51 | 2023-11-17T18:38:48 | 2023-11-17T18:38:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Nf4lGhRwLX3Oa2pD87WJ | Will Kakhovka be liberated by Ukraine before the end of June? | Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia loses control of Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka or Malokakhovka by 30 June, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
[image]If one of these areas is no longer shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area ... | 2023-05-24T09:33:30 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-06-30T18:35:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aVKOqE1L4n0gvOXV8JFb | Will Lebron James retire before the 2023-24 NBA Season? | Resolves No if Lebron James is on a NBA roster at the start of the 2023 season otherwise resolves Yes. This market will not resolve immediately upon announced retirement and instead wait until the season starts in case he changes his mind. | 2023-05-23T14:48:00 | 2023-10-23T20:59:00 | 2023-10-25T23:39:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dhtT4AnpnESADIkAEMCv | Will Trump be suspended (again) on Facebook before the end of 2024? | On January 25, 2023, Meta announced they were removing the suspension from Trump's account: https://about.fb.com/news/2023/01/trump-facebook-instagram-account-suspension/
On the post they stated:
In the event that Mr. Trump posts further violating content, the content will be removed and he will be suspended for betw... | 2023-05-23T12:54:22 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T19:25:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EBhpZQT1YI9v27dGgPfk | Will Destiny talk to Brian from Whatever Podcast again by the end of June? | [markets] | 2023-05-23T12:45:44 | 2023-06-21T17:58:51 | 2023-06-21T17:58:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HT266XsdzSUjGfVQeaPl | Will President Xi and President Biden meet at the APEC meeting in Nov 2023 in San Francisco? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-23T11:23:04 | 2023-11-16T20:33:43 | 2023-11-16T20:33:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3bPSt9h0ZtfAcfo6WPvk | Will Manchester United beat Chelsea in the Premier League? | Resolves YES if Manchester United wins against Chelsea in their Premier League match on May 25, 2023.
Resolves NO if Chelsea wins or the match ends in a draw. | 2023-05-23T09:31:46 | 2023-05-25T14:07:43 | 2023-05-25T14:07:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uDnLR317KR13yiGl14L1 | Will there be an Attack on a synagogue in Florida in 2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-23T09:27:06 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-04T06:05:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0fRf67M7sWWeTUPKyeKE | Will Haifa be successfully attacked by rockets, missiles, mortars, air bombs, or kamikaze drones before the end of 2023? | This market resolves YES if it becomes publicly known that at least one enemy rocket, mortar, missile, air bomb, or kamikaze drone reached Haifa and caused some damage between the market start and the end of 2023.
Author betting policy.
I will bet on this market.
See also:
[markets] | 2023-05-23T02:15:26 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2023-12-31T14:44:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K9ZQakVuohKmwikxqkgF | Does Miami win more than 2.5 games in the NBA finals vs the Nuggets? | Over/under bet. If Miami wins 0(including missing the finals),1 or 2 out of 7 the bet resolves NO. If Miami win 3 or 4 games, resolves YES. | 2023-05-22T21:13:01 | 2023-06-12T21:29:56 | 2023-06-12T21:29:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M7VhBw6gcMM4GuxAGeGD | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17176/ai-takes-down-stock-exchange-before-2025/
Erratic trading in stock markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE is an increasing problem, though as of May 2023, not directly due to AI, though perhaps due to high-frequency trading (HFT).
Examples of Flash Crashes were the 2010 drop... | 2023-05-22T19:00:32 | 2024-12-31T12:00:00 | 2025-01-01T04:18:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hBgCxpxcQgT9FCPQqeRX | Will Tim Scott be the GOP nominee for VICE president in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-22T14:04:49 | 2024-07-15T12:30:48 | 2024-07-15T12:30:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QCKKpiPNqGkeAALkvJ2D | Will Nikki Haley be the GOP nominee for either president or vice president in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-22T14:04:08 | 2024-07-15T12:30:52 | 2024-07-15T12:30:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lWri8zvtiL7CNoACkr1f | Will Apple have a valuation >=$3 trillion by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if Apple trades at or above a $3T valuation.
https://g.co/finance/AAPL:NASDAQ
[link preview] | 2023-05-22T13:46:51 | 2023-06-30T06:44:41 | 2023-06-30T06:44:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oJmTx7IYE3E6PYCEPWTB | Will the Straw Hats reach Elbaf in the manga in 2023? | A chapter clearly showing at least one Straw Hat on or near the shores of Elbaf | 2023-05-22T12:22:50 | 2023-12-29T00:04:55 | 2023-12-29T00:04:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Szy4lEJcCrbGnyPXrw1x | Will there ever be another failed Falcon booster landing? | SpaceX is the only company so far who have propulsively landed an orbital rocket booster. So far they've landed 194 of them in 205 attempts, with most failures happening at the start. They've had a success streak of 120 launches. It seems like they've figured it all out — on the other hand, they keep pushing the limits... | 2023-05-22T10:28:16 | 2024-08-28T01:10:51 | 2024-08-28T01:10:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-W593cWr1pmCT0p9wiwHZ | Will Grimes release a full length album in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-22T08:25:49 | 2023-12-31T08:02:47 | 2023-12-31T08:02:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oE4K0KQmkxEIou5mjX14 | Will Tesla have a ChatGPT moment in self-driving cars by 2024 year-end? | Elon says that Tesla will soon have a chat GPT moment in self-driving cars
"Yes, so I think Tesla is going to play an important role in AI and AGI. And I think I need to oversee that to make sure it's good. So because that's a thorny problem if there ever was one. I think generally, people do not -- very few people, e... | 2023-05-22T08:00:59 | 2025-01-04T04:39:14 | 2025-01-04T04:39:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FxpNqBVG6NIvmZFVqG1P | Will Instagram (META) new text-based app 'Threads' overtake Twitter before 2024? | Resolve YES if number of active users reported are higher than Twitter ones on Dec, 31st 2023.
Context:
https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/19/23730070/instagram-twitter-app-competitor-leak
[image]Image: Lia Haberman | 2023-05-22T05:40:41 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2023-12-31T08:08:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-D6ekmoxn2FsYpY82TJ8F | Will the Miami Heat win at least two games in the NBA Finals 2023? | Resolves YES if the Miami Heat win two, three, or four games in the NBA Finals 2023. Resolves NO otherwise (including the case that they do not make the finals). | 2023-05-22T04:11:16 | 2023-06-13T00:02:31 | 2023-06-13T00:02:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vSsCFIjHeKRVfAE8gCsy | Will 'Starfield' win any awards at The Game Awards 2023? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfield_(video_game)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards | 2023-05-22T02:58:17 | 2023-12-07T19:45:34 | 2023-12-07T19:45:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fQF7vJXpXxd6A9ApouYB | Will the Wagner group stop operating in Ukraine by the end of Jun 2023? | YES = if multiple reliable sources confirm that the Wagner group has ceased its operations in Ukraine entirely. Temporary halts to recuperate will not count. | 2023-05-21T15:29:49 | 2023-06-30T23:59:00 | 2023-07-04T00:24:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tfKR5YWmAr6rklEdxIHL | Will Ukraine retake western Bakhmut by June 15? | Resolution
Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO.
For this ... | 2023-05-21T12:50:41 | 2023-06-15T20:59:00 | 2023-06-16T07:16:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Nfl4W6sAYuvTGHdcnu7W | Will any country announce a commitment of F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before July? | Resolves YES if any country announces a commitment of at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine, before July 2023. Otherwise NO.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/19/politics/biden-g7-f-16-ukraine/index.html
President Joe Biden informed G7 leaders on Friday that the US will support a joint effort with allies and partners to... | 2023-05-21T12:33:08 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-07-01T22:11:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ga5qw2T3GYuq7gfjzUPr | Will the S&P 500 close higher on May 23th than it closed on May 22th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. | 2023-05-21T10:57:12 | 2023-05-23T11:00:00 | 2023-05-23T13:53:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pqns7MPHejGwyegRR2rH | Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield' at any point before 2025? | Resolution will be based on Nintendo's official Investor Relations information.
If at any point before 2025 in any of Nintendo's updates to the Top Selling Title Sales Units financial data (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html), 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' is listed as having m... | 2023-05-21T09:55:18 | 2024-12-31T08:05:33 | 2024-12-31T08:05:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eFYcbT7qxyyhBw9DCnAM | Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Breath of the Wild' at any point before 2025? | Resolution will be based on Nintendo's official Investor Relations information.
If at any point before 2025 in any of Nintendo's updates to the Top Selling Title Sales Units financial data (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html), 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' is listed as having m... | 2023-05-21T09:48:49 | 2024-12-31T08:12:38 | 2024-12-31T08:12:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wSLeVmVmLtkkLJKhi9t6 | Will turnout increase in the second round of the Turkey 2023 presidential election? | Will turnout increase in the second round, when compared to the first round?
According to wikipedia the first round turnout (including blank votes) was: 55,833,153. A tie will resolve as no.
| 2023-05-20T18:55:27 | 2023-05-28T19:11:57 | 2023-05-28T19:12:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3Wg0gNJO203RxcKqOKr5 | Will Apple sell more than 750k Vision Pro headsets before January 20th, 2025? | Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered) | 2023-05-20T11:54:13 | 2025-01-20T15:59:00 | 2025-01-25T23:44:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v5ttrUBOOxVd9ejbzcLB | Will Apple sell more than 500k Vision Pro headsets before January 20th, 2025? | Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered) | 2023-05-20T11:49:45 | 2025-01-20T15:59:00 | 2025-01-25T23:44:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kkl2NtGp5Skf0URS8oHx | Will Germany hit their 2023 energy transition targets for solar and wind energy? | Germany aims to extend their wind energy production by 3,9 GW and their solar energy production by 9 GW.
This market resolves YES as soon as the expansion targets for wind and solar have been achieved in 2023. It resolves NO if they are achieved later.
Progress as of 20th of Mai:
[image]You can get fairly regular u... | 2023-05-20T07:25:13 | 2023-12-23T03:13:06 | 2023-12-23T03:13:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uC4WLRguSt3vC9LRHQ6O | Will Meta create a competitor to Twitter by the midsummer? | If it is created, It has to come out from the beta testing into masses for the market to resolve YES.
Upd.0 Midsummer is 15 July, as hinted in the close date.
Upd.1 "Going into masses" for the purpose of the market means that a new user can enter the network 1) without being tester or anyhow affiliated with META, AND... | 2023-05-20T04:49:48 | 2023-07-08T05:44:12 | 2023-07-08T05:44:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6cmhDhFtNr7CI8BisJea | Will bitcoin end 2023 above 40k? | Resolution source to be the main bitcoin chart on CoinMarketCap. | 2023-05-20T04:38:18 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:23:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f1cHvPbyvCifYYEqdiVz | Will Ukraine receive F-16s by the end of Jan 2024? | YES = if UAF is in possession of the jets or if the jets are being physically transported to Ukraine.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-ukraine-receive-f16s-by-the-en) | 2023-05-19T22:27:47 | 2024-01-31T16:59:00 | 2024-01-31T17:25:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6VRC3VaJnV7cumiRuopc | Will Ukraine receive F-16s by the end of Oct 2023? | YES = if UAF is in possession of the jets or if the jets are being physically transported to Ukraine.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-ukraine-receive-f16s-by-the-en-969b6847651b) | 2023-05-19T22:26:35 | 2023-10-31T17:10:53 | 2023-10-31T17:10:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KQDh7pAIL4draxFSSYJw | Will Pakistan default by 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-19T17:38:24 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-27T14:06:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9 | Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023? | Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may address any sorts of risks from po... | 2023-05-19T16:04:22 | 2023-05-30T03:23:39 | 2023-05-30T03:23:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lcyMUWtHwPoUr42EZEIf | Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of May 25th | Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by the end of May 25th. Resolves NO if not. | 2023-05-19T07:33:30 | 2023-05-25T05:19:07 | 2023-05-25T05:19:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4gx3LJJkJHOOyQXxip7p | Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of May 24th | Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by the end of May 24th. Resolves NO if not. | 2023-05-19T07:32:59 | 2023-05-25T05:18:47 | 2023-05-25T05:18:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P9i802l7H03rxbRYkI5J | Will the Crystal Ballin’ podcast release an episode before September? | Refers to the air date of the episode, not the recording date.
Final hours update: This will be considered from the point of view of the US Pacific time zone like the close time suggests. I will use my best judgement in determining the exact time it first comes out on a major platform (YouTube, Spotify or Apple Music ... | 2023-05-19T07:17:07 | 2023-09-01T00:00:00 | 2023-09-01T00:43:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1FuzWK0iXINu9sdRKpZX | Will the Denver Broncos win more than five games in the 2023 regular season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-19T06:23:13 | 2023-11-26T22:51:19 | 2023-11-26T22:51:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4ckoaUS0KbEh32L3JHPT | Will the New York Jets win more than seven games in the 2023 regular season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-19T06:20:39 | 2023-12-29T05:28:21 | 2023-12-29T05:28:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qujKki1Tpm2d6P0pW8cA | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win more than eight games in the 2023 regular season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-19T06:17:06 | 2024-01-05T07:59:00 | 2024-01-08T01:11:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sT2Aswe1nusNJCXan4Nu | Will Nintendo release a new Pokémon game by the end of 2023 | Vote yes if you think Nintendo will try to make another cash grab. Arceus was amazing. But earlier when they released the Diamond and Pearl remake. Lets just say it was not great. P.S. remakes will also count and spinoffs. | 2023-05-19T06:16:58 | 2023-11-06T08:36:06 | 2023-11-06T08:36:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oOZtRE70KGvdrsHCa3ad | Will the Philadelphia Eagles lose more than three games in the 2023 regular season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-19T05:59:08 | 2023-12-19T01:11:47 | 2023-12-19T01:11:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1Pis7tD7iFTJwv7tU3Nn | Will there be at least 20 US bank failures in 2023-2024? | Resolves YES if the number of US bank failures listed on https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ during 2023 and 2024 is at least 20. Otherwise NO.
As of this question's creation, there have been 3 so far: Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. | 2023-05-19T05:58:04 | 2024-12-31T15:01:21 | 2024-12-31T15:01:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Xn9mZpQHk4JJj93HspOg | Will Ukraine receive non-Russian fighter jets (Oct 2024 limit) | This market is about credible reporting of the aircraft arriving in Ukraine AND being under control of the Ukrainian army/state. Market will resolve YES once such reports are made public, otherwise it resolves to NO on 1st November 2024. If there are rumours/uncofirmed reports of jets arriving arround the close date, I... | 2023-05-19T04:52:05 | 2024-08-04T08:21:07 | 2024-08-05T02:05:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CbM9g0IOjmlQ80GTa2hv | Will Gemini achieve a higher score on the SAT compared to GPT-4? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-18T20:11:54 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-06T08:17:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JD3pfmWZEuhsYFhwNrUI | Will there be Section 230 reform before 2025? | Section 230 is a portion of US law that protects internet content providers from being liable for information that is posted on their sites. For example, if terrorists post content on Twitter, Twitter is not liable for having hosted that content. It has proved controversial in recent years, with politicians from both p... | 2023-05-18T17:53:34 | 2024-12-31T16:10:42 | 2024-12-31T16:10:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UOC8noqaySgNsEdsajRb | Will Wembanyama play 65 games or more in the 2023-2024 NBA Season? | I will resolve this as soon as he reaches 65 games played or it's impossible for him to reach 65.
I will use basketball-reference.com for games played stats. | 2023-05-18T13:38:33 | 2024-04-02T08:23:17 | 2024-04-02T08:23:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g1wqbYJOcYRBQfQEkIC5 | NFL: Will the Kansas City Chiefs have a better 2023 season than the Philadelphia Eagles? | The team with the better season is the one that advances the furthest in the playoffs.
If neither team reaches the playoffs or is defeated at the same stage, it will be determined by regular season standings.
The same tiebreakers as used to determine the NFL draft order will be applied if the teams have an identical ... | 2023-05-18T11:45:06 | 2024-01-16T14:29:22 | 2024-01-16T14:29:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DEpGfffvs0G5Ki24PC8s | Will bard overtake chatGPT in Google search trends (2023)? ($400M subsidy) | https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bard,chatGPT&hl=en
Variations on upper/lower case and space between chat and GPT allowed. | 2023-05-18T08:59:02 | 2023-12-31T10:29:00 | 2023-12-31T11:22:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WkHSuTQlEqfS1g1uPsxz | Will Trump be the Vice Presidential candidate for the GOP in 2024? | Potentially 12 years of immunity if he goes this route and wins, which seems much more likely to happen than the route that sees him as president and a maximum of 4 more years of consequences delayed. As VP it would basically end his legal troubles permanently, and I think he wins from the backseat. I feel sick now tha... | 2023-05-18T06:37:46 | 2024-07-15T12:31:07 | 2024-07-15T12:31:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AD1dU63TL1SzklC2DXqQ | Will 'Diablo IV' win any award at The Game Awards 2023? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_IV | 2023-05-18T05:13:32 | 2023-12-07T19:46:40 | 2023-12-07T19:46:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nMwIGx1fWXkkaWHbctp6 | Will "Oppenheimer" have a >70% Rotten Tomatoes score two weeks after release? | By tomatometer score listed on Rotten Tomatoes | 2023-05-18T04:23:43 | 2023-08-03T23:59:00 | 2023-08-04T00:13:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-a2w0UtmDwWUpk5T8EtRd | Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump? | Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Nikki Haley endorses or says she intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Haley says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral. | 2023-05-18T00:12:50 | 2024-05-22T14:22:10 | 2024-05-22T14:22:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DjPvPOJBhaUUkL9Rr5Pd | Will Mike Pence endorse Trump? | Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Pence says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral. | 2023-05-18T00:11:25 | 2024-11-05T21:23:24 | 2024-11-05T21:23:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tU1f2izprX2HHsXfMFRE | UEFA Champions League Finals: Manchester city vs Inter Milan | Manchester City = YES
Inter Milan = NO
Who will win? | 2023-05-17T13:52:55 | 2023-06-10T14:05:14 | 2023-06-10T14:05:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tEhcQokZsobezIHO5Ruf | Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of June? | [markets] | 2023-05-17T13:45:22 | 2023-06-30T15:00:00 | 2023-07-01T19:24:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0nqJOrHGdcXFsEYcC0Fk | Will there be more than 15 named storms during the 2023 hurricane season (June-November)? | Atlantic hurricane season June 1 - November 30. | 2023-05-17T11:24:41 | 2023-11-01T16:10:47 | 2023-11-01T16:10:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UzxFsvytdfHZx937pMJr | Will there be more than 11 tropical storms with hurricane force winds during the 2023 hurricane season (June-November)? | Atlantic Hurricane season June 1 - September 30.
NC State weather agency forecasts between 11-15 hurricanes this season. NOAA forecast to be issued May 25. | 2023-05-17T08:39:05 | 2023-12-31T02:52:07 | 2023-12-31T02:52:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fBqhqPELuNeNMAeiRTX2 | Will the Panthers win the Stanley Cup. | They're currently in the semi finals and have a decent chance of winning. This market resolves YES if the Pathers win the 2023 Stanley Cup. | 2023-05-17T08:23:31 | 2023-06-14T08:11:56 | 2023-06-14T08:11:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DbTpTpdhRV8s63r4TN8Z | Will Joe Biden host any head of state at his personal residence in Delaware during his presidency? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-17T06:41:08 | 2025-01-02T09:13:18 | 2025-01-02T09:13:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5HVBEJNKU9YkP8WnY0w2 | Will Oppenheimer gross more than $1 billion within the first six months of its release? | Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-oppenheimer-gross-more-than-80) | 2023-05-16T23:06:50 | 2024-01-21T00:23:02 | 2024-01-21T00:23:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aijeqVWn0zzSloPuDIwI | Will Oppenheimer gross more than $800 million within the first six months of its release? | Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-oppenheimer-gross-more-than-1) | 2023-05-16T23:05:09 | 2023-09-03T18:08:25 | 2023-09-03T18:08:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-A3DjyLZRLKdZK7tMF4H9 | Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' release before 1st October, 2023? | In any timezone. Must be full release, not a beta or early access or review copies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollow_Knight:_Silksong | 2023-05-16T18:47:29 | 2023-10-02T05:30:00 | 2023-10-02T17:28:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xOtp7VeRLYDojWqjCttH | Will Sweden join NATO by the end of November? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-16T18:42:09 | 2023-11-30T13:59:00 | 2023-11-30T14:39:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-80L0VKpeMkG4Qby5748j | Will Sweden join NATO by the end of October? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-16T18:41:46 | 2023-11-01T03:45:00 | 2023-11-02T08:04:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-86zGte1gg5hmpHy5x4Fc | Will Sweden join NATO by the end of September? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-16T18:41:22 | 2023-09-30T13:59:00 | 2023-10-02T06:00:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9aMrFoAj83IJXLGuMUQY | Will Sweden join NATO by the end of August? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-16T18:40:48 | 2023-08-31T13:59:00 | 2023-09-01T03:41:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sfRIvXvKk1rzyxsGgsmY | Will the US debt ceiling be raised before June 20? | Resolves YES if the US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended before June 20, otherwise NO.
Notes:
Removing or temporarily suspending the debt ceiling counts as YES.
Only passage of US law counts for resolution. E.g. circumventing or ignoring the debt limit doesn't matter for this question. If the US defaults... | 2023-05-16T16:46:45 | 2023-06-03T13:14:46 | 2023-06-03T13:14:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-M5mJLOsVayDknYcs8OJD | Will the US debt ceiling be raised before June 10? | Resolves YES if the US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended before June 10, otherwise NO.
Notes:
Removing or temporarily suspending the debt ceiling counts as YES.
Only passage of US law counts for resolution. E.g. circumventing or ignoring the debt limit doesn't matter for this question. If the US defaults... | 2023-05-16T16:46:23 | 2023-06-03T13:15:35 | 2023-06-03T13:15:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Eb6Hha4x7ovJHxJokBre | Will GPT-4's max context window increase by the end of 2023? | Anthropic recently announced Claude-100k, a version of their Large Language Model Claude with an 100k token context window.
Will OpenAI follow suit by increasing the max context length of GPT-4 before the end of 2023 (Dec 31 2023, 11:59 PM GMT)?
"GPT-4" is defined as: Any product commonly referred to as "gpt-4" or si... | 2023-05-16T14:12:29 | 2023-11-11T06:37:52 | 2023-11-11T06:37:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4T8xhM5hgQkjNQVOmuyR | Will the Ukrainian army launch a large scale counter-offense before July 2023? | This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim their land before the end of June 2023.
Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before July 1st. Not if there are some probing attacks that may become larger afterwards.
... | 2023-05-16T12:19:48 | 2023-06-09T08:16:50 | 2023-06-09T08:16:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-j4EbCV4042tMQCXOOBST | Will the Ukrainian army launch a large scale counter-offense before June 2023? | This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim their land before the end of May 2023.
Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before June 1st. Not if there are some probing attacks that may become larger afterwards.
... | 2023-05-16T12:18:55 | 2023-06-01T11:17:22 | 2023-06-01T11:17:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jlpwt2dGISevSmhB1Zct | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debate? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17103/ai-in-2024-presidential-debates/
AI and its ability to have broad impacts on society, became much more common topics in news and social media in early 2023 with the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT. US Presidential debates, however, generally focus on a set of more narrowly framed... | 2023-05-16T08:19:43 | 2024-10-31T12:00:00 | 2024-10-31T18:02:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-In9iiDVzufQ111gMSXrZ | Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023? | On the Russ Roberts ECONTALK Podcast #893, guest Tyler Cowen challenges Eliezer Yudkowsky and the Less Wrong/EA Alignment communities to develop a mathematical model for AI X-Risk.
https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-risks-and-impact-of-artificial-intelligence/
This market resolves to "YES" if Tyler Cowen pub... | 2023-05-16T04:30:31 | 2023-10-15T21:59:00 | 2023-10-16T02:14:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BMZMY57hy12ycQDiwwL9 | Will Joe Biden get impeached by the House? | YES = If Joe Biden gets impeached by the House during his current term.
NO = Otherwise.
Recent developments: https://www.newsweek.com/what-joe-biden-impeachment-will-look-like-1798553 | 2023-05-16T01:13:20 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-04T03:17:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tiFpsFgajsXUP3F6t8vX | Will Lukashenko survive 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-15T22:59:46 | 2023-12-31T20:25:17 | 2023-12-31T20:25:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lrW5elN7zOc84KhJz0HT | Will Ukraine hold western Bakhmut on May 31? | Resolution
Resolves YES if on May 31, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO.
For this question, the location... | 2023-05-15T20:00:08 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-05-31T21:05:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OUQTxX5ep3HUdwN0WPUs | Will the #2 Boston Celtics win the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games). Since each game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-15T19:06:45 | 2023-05-29T19:43:42 | 2023-05-29T19:44:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zQ59QKqpWj0lk8C7Dy1N | Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 7 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 6 games.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547678
Additional Market... | 2023-05-15T19:05:39 | 2023-05-29T19:43:38 | 2023-05-29T19:44:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YC0EGqrwOecMcg2FiUts | Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 6 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 5 games.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547676
Additional Market... | 2023-05-15T19:04:57 | 2023-05-27T20:30:00 | 2023-05-27T20:40:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ayqCrMk0ekVUboVHksPS | Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 4 games.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547675
Additional Market... | 2023-05-15T19:03:29 | 2023-05-25T20:30:00 | 2023-05-26T08:09:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ecgTT8NL0J3Zk8ylF0mJ | Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547674
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-15T19:02:18 | 2023-05-23T20:30:00 | 2023-05-24T04:57:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cQkdVQjTcAOYMtwHsGr7 | Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547673
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-15T18:59:43 | 2023-05-21T20:30:00 | 2023-05-22T03:58:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eIGRTRslY4G8bhGXPv6l | Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547672
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-15T18:59:00 | 2023-05-19T19:59:47 | 2023-05-19T20:00:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qmNrSaQ7VKuu9CMpITEx | Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547671
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-15T18:58:17 | 2023-05-17T20:22:45 | 2023-05-17T20:23:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JMCuWJPCULMfTQOdMmNg | Will Destiny say some variation of I'm curious/I'm _ curious during the debate with Rollo on Fresh and Fit? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-15T18:00:17 | 2023-05-15T19:33:22 | 2023-05-15T19:33:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iHARXdgfRTnayS84YHJD | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17090/russia-damages-patriot-air-defense-system/
On Friday, May 12, two US officials told news sources that Russia launched a hypersonic Kh-47 Kinzhal missile towards a Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine.
Ukraine has at least two such batteries, one from the United States and one ... | 2023-05-15T15:28:52 | 2023-06-30T11:00:00 | 2023-07-01T05:03:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7yx3XLTRd5oyqv85HQjW | Will OpenAI opensource a 12B parameter model by the end of 2023 with performance matching the original GPT-3? | 12Bish, anywhere from 10-15B is fine. Lower is also cool, a 1B parameter model that matches performance will resolve yes. | 2023-05-15T10:55:26 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:08:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xNO1IRIP9cUZHiXBz7SU | Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Suella Braverman? | Resolves to YES if the next leader of the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak is Suella Braverman. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, it still counts; if the party dissolves or ceases to exist, this will resolve N/A. I will extend the close date if necessary. | 2023-05-15T10:20:01 | 2024-11-02T09:47:07 | 2024-11-02T09:47:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
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