id
stringlengths 8
25
| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-dyuCKd3DpyK87Oq4dxUj
|
Will Chinese Premier Li Qiang hold a bilateral meeting with President Biden during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-18T14:53:06
|
2023-09-10T10:05:36
|
2023-09-10T10:05:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fXHGcYNWUEnZJn7JE2Nj
|
Will "CSU" be in the next Bundestag?
|
The current german parliement, the Bundestag, has the CSU party and together with the CDU, they are called the "Union". The CSU only exist in Bavaria and the CDU covers the other states.
CSU got 5.2% in the last election. A party has to reach at least 5% to get in. Legislation has been passed to reduce the seats in the Bundestag. The CSU opposed that law and is sueing against it because they fear the 5% barrier.
Resolves YES if a party called "CSU" is elected into the 21th Bundestag.
Resolves NO if CDU and CSU merge into something not called "CSU". Also resolves NO if CSU fails to achieve 5%.
Close date might be adapted to the election date.
|
2023-06-18T11:31:34
|
2025-02-24T23:33:49
|
2025-02-24T23:33:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QbjCZSbG6xfxVpgyp0ZR
|
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2024?🧠🕵️
|
The method used could be anything, for example scanning the brain and decoding brain waves into language and/or images using machine learning.
Experimentally, we should be able to do things like predict someone's internal monologue with only minor errors, or predict what answers someone will give to questions, with only minor errors.
For example, if someone thinks of a number between 1-100 and we can consistently guess which number they're thinking of, this would be strong evidence for YES.
Reminder to read comments for additional clarifications.
Next:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/levifinkelstein/will-there-be-a-very-reliable-way-o-06f1defdf9db)(https://manifold.markets/embed/levifinkelstein/test-6ebeaf8f8fcd)
|
2023-06-18T09:28:44
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:25:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gLvEHniAUT18ccV6lIhj
|
President Biden will withdraw from Democrat nomination or nomination race for health reasons.
|
Market resolves Yes if health is given as one of reasons he is withdrawing. Deadline: 1 month before general election (October 4th, 2024) so even if he withdraws after being nominated at the Convention, the market resolves Yes
|
2023-06-18T07:24:36
|
2024-09-10T09:34:07
|
2024-12-25T12:32:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bUib6Xvuevf5tgnRkTgD
|
Will a single independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
Resolved once election results are sufficiently tallied to do so.
|
2023-06-18T07:05:40
|
2025-01-01T08:54:40
|
2025-01-01T08:54:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UqzJNuKr3rXzmAE2Taww
|
Will Biden change his mind about running in 2024 by the end of 2023?
|
It's definitely not unprecedented. And JB Pritzker and Gavin Newsom are ready to step in if Joe gives it a go and decides to LBJ it and ride into the sunset on his old mustang instead of a horse drawn hearse. I think the physical demands of the presidency are greater than the mental challenges for a president of any age. I think it is a scary moment and Joe might realize he can allow his successor to be chosen in an open primary just like LBJ. It would be deja vu for RFK Jr's campaign and they would surge too. It would be much more fun than watching Brandon crumble and Trump implode in the highest stakes election since Truman v Dewey.
|
2023-06-18T03:53:17
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:01:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RepdJwpnTtqV9duBudPk
|
Will the AQI in New York City reach hazardous levels (>300) in 2023?
|
Resolves yes if the Air Quality Index of any air monitor within NYC borders reaches hazardous daily average levels (>300) for ozone, PM2.5, or PM10.
|
2023-06-17T20:00:59
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T23:05:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OI6vXkwP5N2yN9d2Ssot
|
Will Inter Miami make the MLS 2023 playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-17T16:11:44
|
2023-10-12T13:02:26
|
2023-10-12T13:02:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iTrrxdYoJKdHCiwdj7Wo
|
Will Neuralink IPO by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-17T12:40:42
|
2024-12-31T13:38:22
|
2024-12-31T13:38:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ddQzvKx4HCfe5D8iz8V4
|
Will OpenAI release a tokenizer with vocab size > 150k in 2023?
|
The GPT-2 model used r50k_base: vocab size = 50k
The GPT-3 model used r50k_base: vocab size = 50k
The GPT-3.5 model used cl100k_base: vocab size = 100k
The GPT-4 model used cl100k_base: vocab size = 100k
|
2023-06-17T12:27:29
|
2023-12-31T22:16:29
|
2023-12-31T22:16:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ePuLMhmIC1XSHIMjDJeN
|
Will Trump face greater than 100 criminal charges total across all jurisdictions by the end of 2023?
|
I think we are close to 70 total so far after two of four expected indictments.
|
2023-06-17T11:09:15
|
2023-12-31T20:18:05
|
2023-12-31T20:18:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8V62t3ogYgFMn6zN2GTr
|
Will more than 100,000 voters decide the 2024 election?
|
If Trump picked up the right mix of 42,921 votes in Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779), and Wisconsin (20,682), the Electoral College would have been tied at 269 all.
Back in 2016, Clinton needed to pick up the right mix of 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College.
After all the math is set and done, I'll calculate the least number of voters in the states that if they were to change, would give the election to the runner-up (or at least, make a tie). I plan to eventually calculate all the baserates for this for previous elections.
I won't bet on this market. I'll rely on the mainstream media and the Wikipedia to adjudicate this market. In case of recounts, this market will consider the official recount.
Other election markets:
|
2023-06-17T10:25:12
|
2024-12-16T10:57:18
|
2024-12-16T10:57:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xIuh3J8RxFrb6zole9PC
|
Will the U.S. [real] GDP growth rate exceed 3% in 2023?
|
Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if the [real] U.S. GDP growth rate for the year 2023 exceeds 3% according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data can be verified from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' official website. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
As the link above suggests: this is real GDP.
|
2023-06-16T20:42:47
|
2024-04-09T01:49:05
|
2024-04-09T01:49:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w7zMPuKQlP4FmlTeSE8Q
|
Will China's GDP {real} growth rate surpass the US's in 2023?
|
Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if China's GDP growth rate for the year 2023 is reported to be higher than that of the US by the World Bank. Data can be verified from the World Bank's official website. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
|
2023-06-16T18:12:42
|
2024-07-22T09:22:38
|
2024-07-22T09:22:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K6QVx495D1wL7P2XiRkc
|
Will a Republican win Virginia in the 2024 POTUS election?
|
Virginia used to be a swing state, but it has been moving further left, with Biden winning it by more than 10% in 2020. However, Youngkin's victory there the very next year proves that it's still possible for Republicans to win the state in a really good year for them. Will 2024 be such a year?
|
2023-06-16T12:53:00
|
2024-11-06T06:15:07
|
2024-11-06T06:15:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iOZLf5ZmDuA00yGIV0jy
|
Will Joe Biden fall of the stairs before the end of summer
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-16T12:40:53
|
2023-08-31T13:59:00
|
2023-09-09T13:35:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q5tdDHNa292cZ1qQvmiR
|
Will Xi Jinping visit the US by the end of 2023?
|
While hosting Bill Gates today, his first meeting with an American this year, Xi showed a very different posture toward the US generally that I found almost shocking. It was so counter to everything he has done since the beginning of Covid it feels like a genuine rapproachement. From Reuters:
"I often say the foundation of U.S.-China relations lies with its people. I place my hopes on the American people," a video published by state broadcaster CCTV showed Xi as saying.
"With the current global situation, we can carry out various activities beneficial to our two countries and people, activities that benefit humanity as a whole," he said.
Gates, who arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, said he was "honoured" to have the chance to meet. "We've always had great conversations and we'll have lot of important topics to discuss today ... it's very exciting to be back."
Xi also discussed the global rise of artificial intelligence (AI) with Bill Gates and said he welcomed U.S. firms including Microsoft bringing their AI tech to China, two sources familiar with the talks said.
This resolves YES if Xi follows up this visit by Gates to Beijing with a visit to Redmond to visit Microsoft, as no doubt Gates extended the invitation.
All US visits count. Everyone who bet on either side gets 100 mana tip if the exact story in the description plays out.
|
2023-06-16T11:45:32
|
2023-11-14T15:34:33
|
2023-11-14T15:34:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gZv6Kva5phcgaBXOnlGH
|
Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to January 6 by the end of October?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-16T10:20:01
|
2023-08-01T14:42:55
|
2023-08-01T14:42:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5S2TjQdoFMUcnOejg0hz
|
Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to January 6 by the end of September?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-16T10:19:14
|
2023-08-01T14:43:16
|
2023-08-01T14:43:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PQNRp2EXSNj4PsYWWxdA
|
Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to January 6 by the end of August?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-16T10:18:42
|
2023-08-01T14:38:33
|
2023-08-01T14:38:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G1o4zOslrms1ZAPT7Vrw
|
Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to January 6 by the end of July?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-16T10:18:18
|
2023-07-31T20:59:00
|
2023-08-01T13:20:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PgtX1FyyKgYcpqzIweKj
|
Will subreddits return by Monday?
|
This website tracks the reddits that went dark. Right now 4735 subreddits are dark while 8829 subreddits went dark at any time.
https://reddark.untone.uk/
This market will resolve to YES if by the end of Monday (GMT-03, São Paulo time), 75% of the subreddits are back. This means that the smaller number divided by the bigger must be smaller than 25%.
I won't bet on this market.
Related markets
[markets]
|
2023-06-16T10:14:46
|
2023-06-19T19:59:00
|
2023-06-19T20:07:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sSyjKcsr8zEO6hCfKDUd
|
Will Congress pass an omnibus spending bill by the end of September?
|
Resolves YES if Congress passes the annual omnibus spending bill which bundles the appropriations submitted by individual bills debated in separate committees into a single package. Not contingent on the president signing it.
|
2023-06-16T09:12:18
|
2023-09-30T20:59:00
|
2023-10-01T09:33:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SknGbhnTFGEuXO8ZG7Qk
|
🐕 Will AI Be Able to Gain a Much Broader Academic and Professional Understanding by the End of 2023?
|
Preface:
Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.
Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme
[image]Market Description
MMLU
Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300
Resolution Criteria:
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/multi-task-language-understanding-on-mmlu
[link preview]GPT4 tops the list at 86.4 currently.
We seem to have been gaining around 10 points per year from Jan 2022 until early 2023.
Scaling out about 1/4th of the year hypothetically we should be at 93.9 by the end of 2023 assuming continued linear growth.
However, the test might not happen by then, so assuming we get a test by end of October, that would be (0.583 years)*(10 points/year) = 5.83 additional points, + 86.4 = 92.2
If > 92.2 by end of year, this resolves as YES.
|
2023-06-16T09:01:45
|
2024-01-01T21:59:00
|
2024-01-04T07:12:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uunP9DRDR5OHOZTlZUMc
|
Will Reddit allow users to vote out subreddit moderators?
|
The CEO brought up the idea here:
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/reddit-protest-blackout-ceo-steve-huffman-moderators-rcna89544
YES if a new feature is introduced allowing regular users (non mods) to remove unpopular moderators.
NO if this doesn't happen within a year.
|
2023-06-16T05:36:21
|
2024-07-16T13:59:00
|
2024-07-17T07:50:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FGXAIIgLEHxsxnzziwvf
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 23th than it closed on June 22th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|------|-------|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 750 |
| 3 | 250 |
Good luck forecasting!
|
2023-06-16T02:44:39
|
2023-06-23T11:00:00
|
2023-06-23T15:06:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gZhxV1N9oGWsm3oBguZc
|
Will Texas be closer than Florida in the 2024 election?
|
The presidential general election, to be specific. Resolves based on the % margin between the first and second place candidates.
|
2023-06-15T22:08:07
|
2024-11-15T12:41:48
|
2024-11-15T12:41:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B5Ljgn6UbQ2xYp5Q24TZ
|
Will MrBeast remain the 2nd most-subscribed YouTube channel for the rest of 2023?
|
Will resolve as NO if at any point from the creation of this market to the end of 2023 MrBeast is not the 2nd most subscribed to channel. Also resolves as NO if the channel is deleted or banned.
Resolves based on Socialblade Top 50.
Follow up to:
@/xyz/will-mrbeast-remain-the-4th-mostsub
@/xyz/will-mrbeast-remain-the-3rd-mostsub
|
2023-06-15T20:13:52
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T22:31:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z3E476FmA73yzGQLM7VL
|
Will Taylor Swift release a music video of Cruel Summer in 2023?
|
The 2019 song is a single now...https://www.billboard.com/music/pop/taylor-swift-cruel-summer-new-radio-single-1235355186/
Must be an official music video to count.
Deadline is 6pm PT on December 31.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-06-15T19:06:22
|
2023-12-31T18:00:00
|
2023-12-31T18:01:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T2pUroz3OwKXmOQ4UOUK
|
Will Ukrainian ground troops reach the Sea of Azov anywhere by September 1st?
|
-Unless it becomes contentious or someone can demonstrate severe bias, I'll just use the daily map on Wikipedia to resolve this
-If Ukrainian ground troops uncontroversially reach the coast, but are then pushed back, this will still resolve YES
|
2023-06-15T17:41:25
|
2023-08-31T14:59:00
|
2023-08-31T16:25:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xvEm8V2yvPUVi5Hn9kXy
|
Will there be at least 1 million people (globally) that live physically underground by 2040?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-15T15:17:08
|
2023-08-01T14:52:14
|
2023-08-01T14:52:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-97WkMNq4pTOspwIk1mu1
|
Will Novak Djokovic win all 4 Grand Slams in 2023?
|
Novak Djokovic Wins All Four Grand Slam Tournaments: The market will be resolved as "yes" if Djokovic emerges as the winner in all four Grand Slam tournaments of 2023, namely the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open.
|
2023-06-15T13:50:42
|
2023-07-16T14:21:40
|
2023-07-16T14:21:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KJBOrpfjlwP4tk2cdX3A
|
Will Donald Trump participate in the first RNC presidential debate?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ex-President Donald J. Trump participates in the first Republican National Committee (RNC)-sanctioned presidential primary debate, currently scheduled for August 23, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "participation" will be defined as Trump directly participating in the debate by speaking at least once during the debate, and being acknowledged by the moderator of the debate. If Trump is a remote participant in this debate, this market will still resolve to "Yes".
If this debate is split into multiple debates over multiple days, all days or rounds included in the debate will be considered toward the resolution of this market. If this debate is cancelled, delayed or rescheduled to a start date after September 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-attend-the-first-rnc-debate
[link preview]
|
2023-06-15T13:30:28
|
2023-08-23T20:59:00
|
2023-08-26T18:59:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yLVsheVavjHzQj9cZmv3
|
Will there be 18 or more named storms during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
|
This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name 18 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names 18 or more storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If 18 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "Yes" immediately. Note: storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it are included in NOAA’s count. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
This market may only resolve to "No" after December 1, 2023, 12:00:00 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not occurred before then.
original: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-19-or-more-named-storms-during-the-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season
|
2023-06-15T10:57:23
|
2023-10-12T01:18:01
|
2023-10-12T01:18:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HdZ2LXTNTS3cpZBD5YWL
|
Will Conor McGregor return to the UFC in 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conor McGregor participates in an officially sanctioned UFC bout between June 15 and December 31, 2023 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An "officially sanctioned UFC bout" includes all official UFC events, such as pay-per-view, Fight Night, and any other event sanctioned by the UFC.
Appearances by Conor McGregor on The Ultimate Fighter reality TV show will not count towards the resolution of this market. Any announcements made by Conor McGregor or the UFC regarding his return or retirement will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
This market may only resolve to "No" once its end date has passed and Conor McGregor has not participated in an officially sanctioned UFC fight in that time.
|
2023-06-15T10:49:38
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T10:46:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aBnx8rhrxlmHqIujZ38l
|
Will Kylian Mbappe leave PSG this summer?
|
This is a market on whether Kylian Mbappé will sign for any football club other than Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) in the Summer transfer window, which closes on September 1, 2023.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Mbappé has signed for any team that is not PSG during the transfer window. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will also resolve to “No” if it is announced that Mbappé has signed a contract extension with PSG.
If a club announces that Mbappé has signed with them but later retracts that announcement, this market will resolve according to the initial announcement.
This market's resolution source will be official, credible announcements from either PSG or the signing club.
original: https://polymarket.com/event/will-mbappe-leave-psg
[link preview]
|
2023-06-15T10:46:30
|
2023-09-01T14:59:00
|
2023-09-02T00:24:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Zz7ASpkbMuzShLMEra1J
|
Will there be an open source model that catches up to ChatGPT this year?
|
Will there be an open source model that catches up to ChatGPT (similar performance within the ballpark of GPT-3.5) this year? As of the time of this posting, the top open source model is UAE's Falcon 40B.
|
2023-06-15T10:27:02
|
2023-12-11T14:56:25
|
2023-12-11T14:56:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ShFXxggDAMOawzMIHjHA
|
Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on July 14, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-15T05:13:35
|
2023-07-14T20:59:00
|
2023-07-15T05:06:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c4cZvHhdnCFSueV6qvh2
|
Will the Black Sea grain deal fall apart? [July 2023]
|
Putin says Russia thinking of ditching grain deal due to West's 'cheating'
UN chief concerned Russia may not extend Ukraine grain deal
The U.N. chief expressed concern about Russia not renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17.
Moscow has been threatening to walk away from the deal known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative – brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye in July last year – if obstacles to its own grain and fertilizer shipments are not removed.
In May, Russia extended the deal for 60 days. It is due to be renewed in July 17th
According to the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre, since the agreement was signed, over 27 million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs have been exported through the Black Sea (as of April 2023).
Generally, the wheat harvest in Ukraine begins in late June and extends through July and sometimes into early August. In general, maize harvest in Ukraine begins in late September or early October and continues through October and sometimes into November.
Ukraine is one of the biggest grain exporters in the world
[image](source: usda via economicsobservatory)
This market will resolve as "YES" if Russia officially withdraws from the deal, or if grain is anyway blocked from leaving Ukraine by sea, or if I otherwise judge that the deal has fallen apart.
The market will resolve as "NO" if the deal is delayed, but still signed not long after the July 17th deadline.
|
2023-06-15T01:59:26
|
2023-07-26T05:38:37
|
2023-07-26T05:38:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hGAMGRLofJ2GedzMyjUN
|
Will Destiny talk to H3H3 before 2024?
|
Will Destiny talk to H3H3 before 2024?
This will resolve if he talks to H3H3 on any stream or any recorded video.
|
2023-06-14T12:09:34
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-07T00:36:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KkU5Co2MMWJ4WnUVkZ1a
|
Will Destiny talk to Trainwrecks again in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-14T10:14:28
|
2023-07-01T19:24:36
|
2023-07-01T19:24:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E0zSkwiqksWaOtQXbpdY
|
Will any of {Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic} win the NBA MVP 2024?
|
Resolves YES if any player of the group {Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic} wins the regular season MVP of the NBA 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2023-06-14T07:49:27
|
2024-05-10T21:28:36
|
2024-05-10T21:28:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QaJ41ugY7NfMkk3uXW9A
|
Will Novak Djokovic have been N1 for at least 400 weeks once he retires?
|
400 weeks or any number above will resolve as YES.
Will be judged N1 with what this (unadulterated) Wikipedia article show for him:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ATP_number_1_ranked_singles_tennis_players#:~:text=Novak%20Djokovic%20has%20spent%20the,consecutive%20weeks%20at%20No.%201
|
2023-06-13T19:11:18
|
2023-11-19T19:48:32
|
2023-11-19T19:48:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iiR3a5w3jrYx61I6j0HO
|
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' have a release date announced before 1st October, 2023?
|
In any timezone. Must be from an official source. To be clear, this market concerns the date of the announcement of the release date, not the actual date of the release date, which can be any date so long as the announcement of that release date is before October 1st.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollow_Knight:_Silksong
|
2023-06-13T18:46:34
|
2023-10-02T05:30:00
|
2023-10-02T17:28:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1uLOu6I8BmKuNa2QNJR7
|
Will Chevrolet deliver the Silverado EV to the general public before the Tesla Cybertruck.
|
The Silverado EV has an expected launch window of fall 2023. According to Elon Musk the Cybertruck will have a 'delivery event' at the end of Q3 2023.
I will resolve 'Yes' when I see an article from a reputable news source that Silverado EV deliveries have started before I see a similar article for the Cybertruck.
Note: Someone I know has an early Cybertruck reservation so I will no doubt be updated regularly on its progress
|
2023-06-13T18:41:54
|
2023-12-20T17:54:58
|
2023-12-20T17:54:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PiRU1uSWYic8SCL9R01g
|
Will Apple Vision Pro be available in Sweden before 2025?
|
Must be available in the Apple Sweden online store or in physical Apple retail stores in Sweden and must be delivered to customers from either of these sources.
|
2023-06-13T16:36:20
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:12:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0Ut087fehs8DPMBttouL
|
Will Apple announce another Spatial Computer before 2025?
|
This question resolves YES if Apple announces a face-worn spatial computer, distinct from the first-generation Vision Pro. As an example: A second-generation Vision Pro or a cheaper alternative to the Vision Pro would count. However, referring to an iPhone as a spatial computer would not count.
|
2023-06-13T16:16:13
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:13:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-krImj4qboYorj8oM7quI
|
Will the subreddits return by friday?
|
This website tracks the reddits that went dark. Right now 8317 subreddits are dark while 8829 subreddits went dark at any time.
https://reddark.untone.uk/
This market will resolve to YES if by the end of Friday, 75% of the subreddits are back. This means that the smaller number divided by the bigger must be smaller than 25%.
I won't bet on this market.
Related markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday)[markets]
|
2023-06-13T16:14:33
|
2023-06-16T20:01:17
|
2023-06-16T20:01:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0DoPiaAUeY38hcpBJjvl
|
Will Apple Vision Pro be in available in the UK before WWDC 2024?
|
Must be available in the Apple UK online store or in physical Apple retail stores in the UK and must be delivered to customers from either of these sources.
|
2023-06-13T15:56:53
|
2024-06-10T12:51:55
|
2024-06-10T12:51:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5tbePf7yqxIznpvcbh1P
|
Will Apple Vision Pro be in consumer hands before April 2024?
|
Must be generally available in at least one country.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-vision-pro-be-in-consume-10ab81098c24)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-vision-pro-be-in-consume-67df5bf6093c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-vision-pro-be-in-consume-8770615d34c1)
|
2023-06-13T15:52:08
|
2024-02-02T11:09:08
|
2024-02-02T11:09:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wnILw9l7mmCul1HK4vLp
|
Will Apple Vision Pro be in consumer hands before March 2024?
|
Must be generally available in at least one country.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-vision-pro-be-in-consume-10ab81098c24)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-vision-pro-be-in-consume-10d30b0f7e6c)
|
2023-06-13T15:51:42
|
2024-02-02T11:08:48
|
2024-02-02T11:08:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4poNDhQxLxnL5jZ9f4zc
|
Will Apple Vision Pro be in consumer hands before February 2024?
|
Must be generally available in at least one country.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-vision-pro-be-in-consume-67df5bf6093c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-vision-pro-be-in-consume-10d30b0f7e6c)
|
2023-06-13T15:51:20
|
2024-01-31T14:59:00
|
2024-02-01T03:12:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rGQ9pkhz7vpGrTVudYEe
|
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the finals in the 2023-2024 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Finals in the 2023-2024 season. This market's starting probability is taken from betting odds in June 2023.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2023-06-13T06:05:15
|
2024-05-31T03:25:02
|
2024-05-31T03:25:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aM5rHi64usr9qq1gZ9xu
|
Will the Boston Celtics win the finals in the 2023-2024 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Boston Celtics win the NBA Finals in the 2023-2024 season. This market's starting probability is taken from betting odds in June 2023.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2023-06-13T05:57:54
|
2024-06-17T20:04:15
|
2024-06-17T20:04:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sEGu6SHzr5IPCbTff9uI
|
Will the Denver Nuggets win the finals in the 2023-2024 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Finals in the 2023-2024 season. This market's starting probability is taken from betting odds in June 2023.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2023-06-13T05:57:23
|
2024-05-19T19:32:18
|
2024-05-19T19:32:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y3Be23UUxbzcZ7CNpUc9
|
Will either Kylian Mbappe or Harry Kane join Real Madrid in the upcoming SUMMER Transfer window for the 2023-24 season?
|
Market resolves to Yes if either of them join Real Madrid in the SUMMER transfer window opening soon.
|
2023-06-13T00:40:12
|
2023-09-02T11:29:00
|
2023-09-03T08:42:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g9eV7RQtKs8r6Sz8EKfX
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
|
Same resolution criteria as this Metaculus question, extended until the end of 2024: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/
Resolves YES if the Metaculus question resolves YES regardless of any arguments. If it happens in 2024, I'll do my best to judge according to the resolution criteria, giving priority to ISW as a source if it's still active and using whatever source Metaculus uses as its main replacement if it isn't. If there's a corresponding Metaculus question with the exact same criteria for 2024, I'll simply resolve in the same way as that one. Since this seems objective enough, I will bet on this market.
Update: There is now a Metaculus question with the same criteria as the original one for this year, so this market's resolution will be fully determined by that question's resolution: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20533/crimea-russia-land-bridge-severed-by-2025/
|
2023-06-12T23:46:08
|
2024-12-31T15:00:00
|
2025-01-18T05:58:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PkkuI3ZmtNPEYyaAMzEv
|
Will Microsoft seriously attempt to complete the acquisition of Activision Blizzard without the United Kingdom approval?
|
If by the end of December 2023, the specialized press (Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Economist...) reports that Microsoft has seriously attempted to close the proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard King without the consent of the United Kingdom, this market will resolve to YES.
A failed attempt will count to YES. A mere contemplation of the idea doesn't count.
Background: On June 12th 2023, the U.S Federal Trade Comission has sued Microsoft to stop the acquisition of Activision Blizzard King. The FTC cites that Microsoft is contemplating closing without the approval of the Kingdom.
[tweet]I won't bet on this market. I plan to hold a high standard of what means to attempt, but I'll rely on the wording of the specialized financial press to adjudicate.
I'll resolve this market to NO if Microsoft closes ABK with the consent of the UK. This includes situations where 10, Downey Street overtunes the CMA decision.
I have another Activision Blizzard market open.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-microsoft-complete-the-activis)
|
2023-06-12T17:52:38
|
2023-10-13T21:22:06
|
2023-10-13T21:22:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0kcn8w0rn6cfX5ed3uoS
|
Will this summer be the hottest recorded in human history ?
|
Concerns the summer that will begin june 21 of 2023 in the north hemisphere
|
2023-06-12T16:03:42
|
2023-09-22T16:59:00
|
2023-10-04T16:23:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Tq5JkvVb15KS5puyTTBQ
|
Will Chile see economic growth in 2023?
|
If the Chilean Central Bank or any well-respected international organization (think OECD, IMF, BID) publishes Chilean Real GDP growth above zero for 2023, this market will resolve YES.
Interesting articles/ data:
Reuters
Fitch
Statista
Economist
World Bank Stats
Update: Market will close when any organization mentioned above publishes the relevant data.
|
2023-06-12T14:57:13
|
2024-03-18T18:49:49
|
2024-03-18T18:49:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LWulhjOPamJhbjiDw5Ws
|
Will the One Piece Netflix show be renewed for season 2 by the end of 2023?
|
The first season of the live action adaptation is expected to premier some time this year, and cost around $10 million per episode.
This market resolves Yes if Netflix officially anounces a second season is coming. Resolves No if there is no such announcement by the end of this year.
|
2023-06-12T10:03:32
|
2023-09-14T13:35:50
|
2023-09-14T13:35:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HLIhHYPje8bG0KxBtewb
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses?
|
Resolves to YES if Vivek Ramaswamy comes first, second or third in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, where this is judged based on number of delegates, then by votes if there is a tie. Resolves to NO if he comes fourth or lower, or is not a candidate.
|
2023-06-12T09:39:57
|
2024-01-16T00:31:55
|
2024-01-16T00:31:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jjr6FXCsw0D6uAJ8SV0y
|
Will Nikki Haley be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses?
|
Resolves to YES if Nikki Haley comes first, second or third in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, where this is judged based on number of delegates, then by votes if there is a tie. Resolves to NO if she comes fourth or lower, or is not a candidate.
|
2023-06-12T09:39:52
|
2024-01-16T00:33:49
|
2024-01-16T00:33:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aA77t4nhkpBhjIs4dWeH
|
Will there be a UPS workers strike this Summer?
|
Will UPS (Teamsters Union) workers go on strike at any point during Summer 2023 (Wed, Jun 21, 2023 - Sat, Sep 23, 2023)?
|
2023-06-12T09:28:43
|
2023-09-23T20:59:00
|
2023-09-25T05:28:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RInXLnRB2RmvrpD91vDq
|
Will Trump claim any of the recordings of him presented as evidence in his federal documents trial is a deepfake?
|
I am a bit surprised Capt Deep State hasn't yet caught on to the concept of a deepfake, but surely it is just a matter of time before this term enters his lexicon of scripted denials. Resolves YES if at any time prior to the start of the GOP convention next August Trump claims the recordings entered into evidence by the Special Counsel are deepfakes, defined as faked using AI.
|
2023-06-12T06:50:16
|
2024-07-15T16:05:46
|
2024-07-15T16:05:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rsnKVXmuC9RhgGG9Tv3E
|
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of August?
|
YES Still alive before September 1 (EDT)
Edit: Based on comment feedback
|
2023-06-12T06:46:24
|
2023-08-31T20:59:00
|
2023-08-31T21:00:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a58S61rLBlUyHBA0k0gC
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia by the end of Sep 2023?
|
Yes = if the corresponding market on Metaculus resolves before market close.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/
[link preview]
|
2023-06-12T05:18:53
|
2023-09-30T17:23:32
|
2023-09-30T17:23:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GJe639OYxZJuLAAvLFoO
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia by the end of Aug 2023?
|
Yes = if the corresponding market on Metaculus resolves before market close.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/
[link preview]
|
2023-06-12T05:18:18
|
2023-09-01T00:13:13
|
2023-09-01T00:13:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TlIBzZBzvhbCaJO1n7EA
|
Will a human have offspring with a non-human animal before the end of 2024?
|
Normally this doesn't work, but you could imagine it would be possibl through some clever biohacking or whatever. For the market to resolve YES the offspring needs to clearly have a mix of the DNA of a specific human and a specific non-human animal.
|
2023-06-12T03:39:59
|
2024-12-12T14:59:00
|
2025-01-17T13:37:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nykMKmh6H6MPFD9fq7Sb
|
Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?
|
See the question on metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15148/virgin-galactic-commercial-flight-q1-q2-2023/
|
2023-06-12T01:17:27
|
2023-06-29T11:38:45
|
2023-06-29T11:38:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-osFAsuHi7jNUIJfb6W1G
|
Will Donald Trump die before 2024 U.S. elections? 🇺🇸
|
YES = Trump dies before the day of the elections
NO = Trump lives at least 1 hr after the election process are finished
|
2023-06-12T00:34:00
|
2024-11-06T12:47:18
|
2024-11-06T12:47:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-icv0CsOEWTAL5XS0WoOu
|
Will Meta publish an App which allows to interact with mastodon.social in 2023?
|
The new standalone app will be based on Instagram and integrate with ActivityPub, the decentralized social media protocol. That will theoretically allow users of the new app to take their accounts and followers with them to other apps that support ActivityPub, including Mastodon.
Source: This is what Instagram’s upcoming Twitter competitor looks like
Resolves YES if any app (iOS or Android) by Meta (or siblings like Instagram) allows to interact (e.g. reply to or favorite their toots) with users on mastodon.social before 2024.
Resolves NO if no such app appears. Also NO if the app allows no real interaction, like read-only following.
Update clarification: It is not relevant how the Fediverse reacts here. Threads getting blocked/banned does not mean this resolves NO.
|
2023-06-11T23:41:01
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:31:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FsdPt9ZNM8bhJCH6poED
|
Will the Reddit blackout protest cause changes to their upcoming API update?
|
Starting June 12, a significant number of subreddits are going private to protest the upcoming changes to Reddit's API, which will have a large effect on 3rd party apps. The updated API terms will go into effect on June 19th, per https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/12qwagm/an_update_regarding_reddits_api/ and API rate limits will change on July 1st, per https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api
This market will resolve YES if, before or on July 1st, Reddit changes any portion of the upcoming updates in response to the blackouts.
|
2023-06-11T21:45:18
|
2023-07-01T20:59:00
|
2023-07-01T21:05:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MLjqHXZXgkembcLnfPQE
|
Will Destiny meet with Tristan Tate in person before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-11T16:44:44
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:19:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AEDsq8O85lj1jvll8Z4Z
|
Will Kari Lake be elected to be a US Senator for Arizona in 2024?
|
There has been speculation that Kari Lake will run for a US Senate seat for Arizona in 2024.
This question will resolve to "yes" if she officially wins the 2024 election for a US Senate seat representing Arizona, according to Arizona government rules. It will resolve to "no" otherwise. The question will be closed when the state of Arizona officially certifies the results of the 2024 election for US Senator for Arizona; this could occur before or after the current question closing date.
|
2023-06-11T11:36:06
|
2024-11-11T11:16:19
|
2024-11-11T11:16:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ivgiSULFRqQclxlNsPbt
|
Will Destiny talk to Dylan Burns again in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-11T10:49:32
|
2023-06-30T23:59:00
|
2023-07-01T19:23:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1hvEEascif8mJ5tHlJXz
|
Will Kylian Mbappé play for Real Madrid during the 2024/2025 season?
|
Resolves YES if he makes at least one appearance for Real Madrid in an official competitive match during the 2024/2025 season. This includes domestic league games, domestic cup games, and international club competitions such as the UEFA Champions League.
|
2023-06-11T08:56:51
|
2024-08-14T16:04:07
|
2024-08-14T16:04:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M3ismyhRYQF2nkwKLPkx
|
Will Kylian Mbappé play for Real Madrid during the 2023/2024 season?
|
Resolves YES if he makes at least one appearance for Real Madrid in an official competitive match during the 2023/2024 season. This includes domestic league games, domestic cup games, and international club competitions such as the UEFA Champions League.
|
2023-06-11T08:56:06
|
2024-06-03T01:13:54
|
2024-06-03T01:13:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6JfmLTiiJpdhwOQjBRqS
|
Will the next State of the Union address mention UFOs?
|
This prediction market is based on the possibility of the topic of UFOs being discussed in the next State of the Union (SoTU) address. Harvard professor Avi Loeb has expressed his hope that such a mention might occur, but at the same time, he emphasizes the importance of evidence before making claims about extraterrestrial life.
The market will resolve to 'yes' if the official transcript of the SoTU address mentions 'UFOs' or 'Unidentified Flying Objects.' If no such mention occurs, the market resolves to 'no.' [Source](https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/146pidt/harvard_professor_predicts_that_the_next_state_of/)
The resolution criteria is straightforward: YES: terms like 'UFO', 'Unidentified Flying Objects', UAP, alien, non-human tech or other in the same vibe are present in the official transcript of the SoTU address. NO: the topic is not mentioned in the SoTU address.
|
2023-06-11T08:48:51
|
2024-03-08T19:59:00
|
2024-03-09T03:16:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oqGvCAwOvaI2qTG1rvPg
|
Will Greta Gerwigs 'Barbie' have more then 10% disparity between critic/audience score on Rotten Tomatoes?
|
Resolves Yes if the difference between critic/audience score for Greta Gerwigs 'Barbie' is more then 10% in Rotten Tomatoes by 21th of August. (Movie releases on 21th of July)
|
2023-06-11T05:15:59
|
2023-08-21T03:58:27
|
2023-08-21T03:58:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SEFrJZrKR112tkc7JPMp
|
Will Donald Trump be convicted of felony falsifying business records?
|
See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_criminal_investigation_of_The_Trump_Organization
Trump is now facing a variety of criminal charges. This quesiton specifically relates to the New York criminal investigation which has charged Trump with 34 counts of falsifying business records.
|
2023-06-10T21:39:53
|
2024-05-31T09:15:46
|
2024-05-31T09:15:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uajEabYJu0TWCGtJm0ff
|
Will Greta Gerwig's Barbie be rated at least 7.5 in IMDB at the end of 2023?
|
Closes 2023-12-31 at Yes if Barbie is rated 7.5 or above, and at No if not
IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1517268
|
2023-06-10T19:59:53
|
2023-12-31T18:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:06:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xtaUm8gbweohMSMt7R6Q
|
Will Ridley Scott's Napoleon be rated at least 8.0 in IMDB at the end of 2024?
|
Closes by the end of 2024 at Yes if Napoleon is rated 8.0 or above, and at No if not
IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13287846/
Related:
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate-801438346ff1
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate-0f01d3d427fc
|
2023-06-10T19:56:12
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2025-01-02T07:37:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f6Gfc3NQBuQMoUolMwAw
|
Will Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina all vote the same way in the 2024 election?
|
They are the three Southern swing states that were the most closely divided in 2020. In that election, the first two went for Biden, while NC went for Trump. But a Republican could very well flip Georgia and Arizona next time around, and a Democrat could very well flip North Carolina. Will all three states vote the same way as each other this time?
|
2023-06-10T15:14:41
|
2024-11-07T21:06:08
|
2024-11-07T21:06:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BQP7XkKeug6If44Le8u5
|
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence before the end of 2024. It doesn't count if he is held while awaiting trial or sentencing. House arrest also doesn't count, it must be an official prison. However, it DOES count if he is held in prison awaiting execution or similar.
Resolves NO otherwise
|
2023-06-10T13:52:25
|
2024-12-31T16:00:00
|
2024-12-31T17:02:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vHDDnTWdSKlNnmzNDZDy
|
Will @LexFridman interview Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-06-10T12:26:03
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:04:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Iw0eZ4vH4hR1tlOVU5e5
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of November 2023?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
|
2023-06-10T10:59:32
|
2023-11-30T23:59:00
|
2023-12-01T08:47:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8DN4spJncghEAgZAiisF
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of October 2023?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
|
2023-06-10T10:58:57
|
2023-10-31T23:59:00
|
2023-11-01T07:43:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zqwZh1dDJ2ylJTmAPNKW
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of September 2023?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
|
2023-06-10T10:57:51
|
2023-09-30T23:59:00
|
2023-10-01T13:57:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FMaFJpThr1Uu11MuCGDF
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of August 2023?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
|
2023-06-10T10:56:56
|
2023-08-31T23:59:00
|
2023-09-01T08:17:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OSLF3PI1bUy7rSyLVU4c
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of July 2023?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
|
2023-06-10T10:54:23
|
2023-07-31T23:59:00
|
2023-08-01T08:12:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iorzfK5rIhz6EL56biZd
|
Will Aileen Cannon preside over Donald Trump's documents trial for the duration?
|
Resolves YES if she remains the presiding judge until a final determination is made by either a jury verdict, judge dismisses charges with predjudice or declares a mistrial on all counts.
|
2023-06-10T04:43:50
|
2024-11-28T07:08:34
|
2024-11-28T07:08:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I5ECpkIn9Wr793nl7nNy
|
Will Destiny talk to imreallyimportant again in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-10T02:20:52
|
2023-07-01T19:27:56
|
2023-07-01T19:27:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VEE8DMRV6LYsrlk1UFB2
|
Will DeSantis and Pence become running mates in 2024?
|
At any point in the 2024 election, will DeSantis make Pence his running mate or vice versa?
|
2023-06-09T23:29:13
|
2024-09-03T22:48:01
|
2024-09-03T22:48:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9dFstzqJz9AWElxnQKNk
|
Barbie vs Oppenheimer (Box Office Opening Weekend)
|
Will Barbie or Oppenheimer gross more domestically on their opening weekend?
Yes = Barbie
No = Oppenheimer
Will use data from boxofficemojo.
|
2023-06-09T17:50:15
|
2023-07-24T15:20:04
|
2023-07-24T15:20:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IgfAwEjbTDlv6tfS53n5
|
Will Donald Trump be convicted of obstruction of justice in the documents case?
|
Guilty verdict on any of the existing obstruction charges.
|
2023-06-09T16:03:18
|
2024-11-26T17:22:47
|
2024-11-26T17:22:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9niGR93ZBgt96BmeQnWp
|
Will Blackbeard show up on Egghead during the Egghead arc?
|
Will Blackbeard show up on Egghead during the Egghead arc?
|
2023-06-09T13:59:10
|
2024-08-16T10:05:56
|
2024-08-16T10:05:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KNUOJjiGCE13xLoopP6m
|
Third Trump Indictment 2023?
|
This resolves YES if Donald Trump is indicted in a federal or state case in the US between market creation and close. This excludes the cases filed June 8, 2023 and March 30, 2023. This market also excludes any sealed or otherwise secret indictments.
(Idea for the market stolen from the Salem Center Tournament)
|
2023-06-09T11:32:25
|
2023-08-03T11:03:03
|
2023-08-03T11:03:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P2dsMI183TlSOVqFonmD
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?
|
This is a copy of the market by @agentydragon linked below but I will not be resolving to N/A and the resolution will depend only on the real world event.
Resolves Yes if on June 30th at 11:59PM EST, I go to www.google.com and there is a chatbot assistant on mobile or web version.
Resolves No if on June 30th at 11:59PM EST, I go to www.google.com and there isn't a chatbot assistant on mobile or web version.
A separate app will count if it is promoted on the homepage but Google Assitant will not count. It must be comparable to ChatGPT.
It also must be publicly available. Only to select invited users won't count. If a country/countries have access, the total population of those countries must exceed 100M.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo)
|
2023-06-09T10:24:28
|
2023-07-01T13:46:20
|
2023-07-01T13:46:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nJc7FQkH14k2Sb9j4IOF
|
Will Chris Christie suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?
|
In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 15th of January, 2024. If Chris Christie suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.
Similar markets: https://manifold.markets/group/campaign-suspension-timing
|
2023-06-09T08:35:35
|
2024-01-10T17:56:17
|
2024-01-10T17:56:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.