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forecasting

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mani-FGmdmIKP2iEGwmugOglE
Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 27th?
Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow.
2023-06-23T23:13:16
2023-06-27T20:59:00
2023-06-27T21:11:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I0K79ODxU0Poos25al0Z
Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 25th?
Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow.
2023-06-23T23:12:46
2023-06-25T20:59:00
2023-06-25T21:01:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2YMtpzZmZQ0sh77D6YPE
Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 24th?
Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow.
2023-06-23T23:12:33
2023-06-24T20:59:00
2023-06-24T21:03:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FXizWjQ3leFQCBVhdbur
Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) stay alive and free through end of Aug?
Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of Aug, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES. Background: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256 Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny'"
2023-06-23T22:29:33
2023-08-29T13:18:53
2023-08-29T13:18:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aWyfr8c9fdP6qEBatZ8b
Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight by Sep 1?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg both announce that they have agreed to fight one another by Sep 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, an “announcement” will be defined as Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly confirming that a physical fight will take place. The fight itself does not need to take place prior to Sep 1 for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be any statements issued directly by both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg which confirm that a fight will take place.
2023-06-23T22:25:57
2023-09-01T20:59:00
2023-09-02T12:22:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Jmdji2seKJ1XObbgLCwg
Will there be a new President of Russia by December 31, 2023?
Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if there are credible news reports confirming that someone other than Vladimir Putin has assumed the office of President of Russia on or before December 31, 2023. The market resolves to NO if no such change occurs by the specified date.
2023-06-23T21:37:28
2024-01-01T10:30:12
2024-01-01T10:30:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CsYeroQkv4EkeEWpl8pE
Will Prigozhin make it to Moscow alive and free?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-23T21:07:02
2023-08-26T19:44:19
2023-08-26T19:44:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nluFMu08Yio23YHqfC59
Will Wagner Group gain control of nuclear weapons in 2023?
The physical weapons themselves, they don't necessarily need the ability to detonate them. I won't resolve this market "Yes" unless there's confirmation from serious western intelligence.
2023-06-23T20:19:08
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T06:33:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-flGzTtNErDVUCd1BeDAe
Will Putin cease to be President of Russia before August 1, 2023?
This question will be resolved using reputable media sources. If an answer cannot be determined, the question will resolve as N/A.
2023-06-23T20:16:35
2023-07-31T20:59:00
2023-08-01T22:49:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-U9ZOvv5txhE40xmr09KQ
Will Prigozhin's forces control any major city in Russia militarily on July 1, 2023?
A major city will be considered to be a city with a population of 500,000 or more. The question will be resolved using reputable media. If a clear answer cannot be determined, the question will be resolved to N/A.
2023-06-23T20:01:05
2023-06-30T20:59:00
2023-07-05T09:44:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lzod4NoyNARS5P9jwpQZ
Will Russian military or security forces engage in a shootout with a military opponent in Moscow during 2023?
Has to be a firefight (shots fired at by both groups towards each other) with an organised group of uniformed combatants.
2023-06-23T18:56:47
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T17:14:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZVELqilMUpcIjFKlgwzx
Will more than 1000 people die in an internal conflict in Russia by 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-23T18:50:47
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-04T03:15:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ooCGpnifDYVzmRKWd9ZX
Will Russia will be in a state of civil war before July 14th 2023
Tensions have been escalating in Russia throughout 2023, marked by significant political and military events. In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia's suspension of participation in the New START treaty and hinted at the development of new nuclear weapons if the U.S. conducted any nuclear tests​. This was followed by the announcement in March that Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July​. Several violent incidents also occurred, including a bombing in Saint Petersburg in April that resulted in the death of a military blogger and injury to numerous others​, and a car bomb attack in May that injured a pro-war nationalist and killed his driver​​. These events point to a heightened state of unrest. In the same period, relations with other countries have deteriorated, as seen in the ban on Armenian dairy imports​, and there are hints that Russia might withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal​​. Domestically, human rights and independent organizations have come under scrutiny, such as the SOVA Center, which was ordered to close by the Moscow City Court in April​​. On June 23, Russia accused Yevgeny Prigozhin of calling for a rebellion​. This series of events, both international and domestic, suggests a volatile situation that could potentially escalate into a civil war, as defined above. Will Russia will be in a state of civil war before July 14th 2023 Question criteria: The market will resolve as "Yes" if, on or before July 14, 2023, credible media outlets, international organizations, or government sources report that a civil war, as defined by a violent conflict between the state of Russia and one or more organized non-state actors within Russia's territory, has begun. A conflict will be considered a civil war if it meets the following criteria: It involves the state of Russia and one or more organized non-state actors operating within Russia's borders. It is distinguished from interstate conflicts (where states fight other states), violent conflicts or riots not involving states (sometimes labeled intercommunal conflicts), and state repression against individuals who cannot be considered an organized or cohesive group, including genocides, and similar violence by non-state actors, such as terrorism or violent crime​. It involves sustained armed conflict, with both sides having the capacity for organized violence. Isolated or sporadic incidents of violence will not qualify as a civil war. The conflict has caused at least 100 casualties or territorial changes, or the Russian government and/or the international community officially declare a state of civil war. The market will resolve as "No" if these conditions are not met on or before July 14, 2023. In the case of conflicting reports or ambiguity about the state of affairs, the market may extend the resolution date to gather more information. The market may also take into account reports from neutral and reputable conflict monitoring organizations or institutions. If the market is still unable to determine a clear resolution based on the available information by an extended resolution date, it may resolve as "N/A".
2023-06-23T17:10:34
2023-07-14T00:00:00
2023-07-19T01:24:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3Eyye13TvWvY0IdoPcI3
Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) be arrested by July 15?
Resolves YES if Yevgeny Prigozhin is arrested by July 15 2023 (11:59 ET), otherwise NO. Resolves based on consensus of reliable media reporting. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256 The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group is being investigated for inciting mutiny after accusing the Russian military of a launching a deadly missile strike on his troops. [link preview]Also see related questions with different deadlines to the right.
2023-06-23T15:36:58
2023-07-15T20:59:00
2023-07-17T08:09:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xzRQWXY58cR36bWErzrm
Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) stay alive and free through end of July?
Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES. To clarify what that means: If reliable media reports (at any time, even after July) say he was jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, then resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves YES. To implement this definition, the market would resolve YES some time after July if no news indicates otherwise, but if later news comes out that he was indeed jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, then the resolution will update to NO. Background: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256 Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny'"
2023-06-23T15:22:44
2023-08-21T15:54:50
2023-08-21T15:54:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JhrScDr6ObHG0RVhK79W
Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) stay alive and free through end of June?
Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of June, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES.
2023-06-23T15:22:19
2023-06-30T20:59:00
2023-07-01T22:10:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Om1ehAOGUjDqmjTZtC2y
Will Wagner PMC (the org) resume operations alongside Russia in 2023?
Based on recent footage showing what seems to be a destroyed camp, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has declared that it was due to an attack by Russian forces, which could lead to the dissolution of their "cooperation". Regardless of the outcome of the immediate media campaign and potential internal conflict, will Wagner Group and Russia eventually re-establish friendly ties and resume the invasion of Ukraine together by the end of 2023? This market makes no distinction between whether Wagner is a de facto Russian government organization or not. An assumption this market is making is that there is a possibility of conflict between the two, even if they're otherwise one-and-the-same, but whether conflict actually arises or not doesn't affect the resolution of this market. Perhaps the recent news is a ruse to squash the pretty well-substantiated rumors that Wagner Group is simply another arm of Russia's military. Or it's a feint to allow a coordinated surprise push. I'm sure most of us are hoping it devolves into a destabilization of Russia's invasion, but even if it does will it be a lasting split or will they make peace with each other in favor of resuming their campaign against Ukraine? --- Update to include some clarifications that you might find useful: This is about the organization, not the individuals. Former-Wagner troops dont count, but Wagner-branded units do. We're mostly looking for active deployment into battlefields. Sending them near the front to cool their heels and play CoD wouldn't satisfy. If there exists conflict between Wagner forces and Russian forces in the same areas of deployment (broken and uncoordinated chain of command, squabbles about supply, or even exchange of fire, etc.), this won't resolve YES until that's seemingly resolved
2023-06-23T15:16:21
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-02T19:31:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yLXFSZWc7u6wh3cjjjbS
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader be in prison by the end of 2024?
[tweet][markets]
2023-06-23T14:16:27
2023-09-06T19:42:27
2023-09-06T19:42:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8ZJTKP4CQPQgSpFr0b5E
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group still be alive by the end of 2024?
[tweet][markets]
2023-06-23T14:12:22
2023-08-29T04:21:06
2023-08-29T04:21:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-A0uKxcIjjHNxw7vtXEKl
Will there be a successful coup in Russia by the end of 2024?
[tweet][markets]
2023-06-23T13:48:42
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T01:36:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gVyhRWDR9BfptUl43Mdd
Will Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-23T13:47:04
2023-12-31T16:21:44
2023-12-31T16:21:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NTvZoXTwxclEN3qidYap
Will Russia have a civil war by the end of 2024?
[tweet][markets]
2023-06-23T13:45:48
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-24T21:38:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-u25Sl9uaATsilhkCr7uU
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be alive and free at the end of 2023?
"Free" as in: not in Jail.
2023-06-23T13:34:26
2023-11-21T22:45:41
2023-11-21T22:45:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ
Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?
Rumors are going round that Wagner units are attempting a coup against the russian ministry of defense. I will try to find better sources than this. https://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/update-2-russian-mercenary-boss-vows-to-avenge-alleged-army-attack-moscow-denies-accusation/ar-AA1cXjLX Here is a translation of Prigozhin last love letter to Moscow: "PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back. Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads. I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland. Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia." Resolves early if there is widespread media consensus for either side. Otherwise resolves according to my gut feeling about this having been a coup or a false alarm. Edit: Due to this market getting traction I sold all my shares so as to not seem biased when resolving this.
2023-06-23T13:09:17
2023-06-30T14:59:00
2023-07-02T11:46:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FfWfiXSu50xks3Zd0Erl
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin still be alive and posting videos at the end of July?
Dear Leader of PMC Wagner and Democratic People's Republic of Rostov-on-Don, will he prevail and keep shitposting on telegram? Resolving YES if he posts at least one video message in the last week of July and is alive on July 31 *update June 25 - he has traded Wagner and Rostov for an undisclosed amount of potatoes and life in Belarus. Radio silence since. [image]
2023-06-23T12:58:11
2023-07-31T11:00:00
2023-07-31T14:01:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kgibisE0j3R1ahp3SDDd
Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 28th June
As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content. Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past two weeks, either because they wanted to bring their subreddit back or becuase Reddit's admins threatened to kick out their moderators if they didn't come back online. This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2562/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 31.3%. If this figure ticks below 25%, the market resolves to YES. The deadline is Wednesday at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market). Previous markets tracking the progress: @/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida @/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33 (With thanks to @MP who came up with the idea and created the first two markets here) Resolution notes: If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
2023-06-23T12:13:59
2023-06-28T14:00:00
2023-06-28T14:04:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ANlMTVC6CCY1K7afVE3W
Will Reddit still be in the top 25 most visited websites at the end of 2023?
Resolves according to Wikipedia's List of Most Visited Websites: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites Reddit is currently #20. Resolves based on whatever data is there on Jan 1, 2024. If Wikipedia lists Reddit as 26th or lower, resolves NO. If Reddit is 25th or higher, resolves YES. See also: @/DanMan314/will-reddit-still-be-in-the-top-20 @/DanMan314/will-reddit-still-be-in-the-top-30 ‌
2023-06-23T09:12:41
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T01:26:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zcbqzJXig46u8yEpJBgL
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 29th than it closed on June 28th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-06-23T05:30:22
2023-06-29T11:00:00
2023-06-29T14:03:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9dXfwrRAcuP7w1Oyxxc7
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 28th than it closed on June 27th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-06-23T05:30:01
2023-06-28T11:00:00
2023-06-28T14:18:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZWiGeGQS3Vcs4lPwMvGF
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 27th than it closed on June 26th?
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT. Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize. | Rank | Prize | |------|-------| | 1 | 1000 | | 2 | 750 | | 3 | 250 | Good luck forecasting!
2023-06-23T05:29:39
2023-06-27T11:00:00
2023-06-27T13:53:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WAvgtM3X8AiSQW0ovcrv
Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight by Aug 1?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg both announce that they have agreed to fight one another by Aug 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, an “announcement” will be defined as Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly confirming that a physical fight will take place. The fight itself does not need to take place prior to Aug 1 for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be any statements issued directly by both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg which confirm that a fight will take place. Context: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65981876 [link preview]
2023-06-23T04:51:04
2023-08-01T20:59:00
2023-08-01T21:26:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-W6B63hYGADLjPvsrYaHA
Will Alaska be closer than Virginia in the 2024 POTUS election?
Alaska was slightly closer than Virginia in 2020, a result that would have been shocking just a few elections earlier, given that Virginia used to be a swing state, and Alaska had a very long history as a solid red state. Both states are trending blue, so if the trend continues, Alaska will be closer in the next election, and Virginia will be even more solid for the Democrats. However, it's also possible that they snap back slightly towards their past history, or that Republicans have a better year than 2020 and make both states redder.
2023-06-22T21:21:14
2024-11-10T19:19:27
2024-11-10T19:19:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vb8ZIShPmeUdph6slV0k
Will the Bank of Japan pivot by Q4 2023?
Will the Bank of Japan pivot by Q4 2023? (End of yield curve control, Announce tapering towards the end of QE, raise benchmark interest rates, or other actions adjudicated by me using the mainstream financial media) I won't bet on this market.
2023-06-22T21:19:10
2023-12-31T10:08:00
2023-12-31T10:08:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-THxmLuEawAVIM5V61v2u
Will Reddit still be in the top 20 most visited websites at the end of 2023?
Resolves according to Wikipedia's List of Most Visited Websites: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites Reddit is currently #20. Resolves based on whatever data is there on Jan 1, 2024. If Wikipedia lists Reddit as 21st or lower, resolves NO. If Reddit is 20th or higher, resolves YES. See also: @/DanMan314/will-reddit-still-be-in-the-top-25 @/DanMan314/will-reddit-still-be-in-the-top-30
2023-06-22T19:35:58
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T01:26:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qDx2dZ2QSp7zeKzoO7Fx
Will Reddit still be in the top 30 most visited websites at the end of 2023?
Resolves according to Wikipedia's List of Most Visited Websites: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites Reddit is currently #20. Resolves based on whatever data is there on Jan 1, 2024. If Wikipedia lists Reddit as 31st or lower, resolves NO. If Reddit is 30th or higher, resolves YES. See also: @/DanMan314/will-reddit-still-be-in-the-top-20 @/DanMan314/will-reddit-still-be-in-the-top-25
2023-06-22T19:30:16
2024-01-01T00:52:17
2024-01-01T00:52:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XmTMqoO7T0KmdD4c3gQq
Did Avi Loeb just find alien technology in the Pacific Ocean?
He found the interstellar object he was looking for and the smile on his face makes it clear he thinks he found it. https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/science/scientists-looking-interstellar-object-8680155/lite/ [link preview]
2023-06-22T15:19:23
2024-07-01T20:59:00
2024-07-22T13:32:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EsCfODH8S0FC1lfvwYXa
Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight by July 1?
This question resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-and-zuck-announce-a-fight. The rules are: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg both announce that they have agreed to fight one another by July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, an “announcement” will be defined as Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly confirming that a physical fight will take place. The fight itself does not need to take place prior to July 1 for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be any statements issued directly by both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg which confirm that a fight will take place. Context: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65981876 Mr Musk posted a message on his social media platform Twitter that he was "up for a cage fight" with Mr Zuckerberg. Mr Zuckerberg, the boss of Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta, then posted a screenshot of Mr Musk's tweet with the caption "send me location". Mr Musk, who turns 52 later this month, also tweeted: "I have this great move that I call 'The Walrus', where I just lie on top of my opponent & do nothing." He later tweeted short videos of walruses, perhaps suggesting his challenge to Mr Zuckerberg may not entirely be serious.
2023-06-22T10:14:38
2023-07-01T20:59:00
2023-07-01T22:10:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-t8chVtDOdbuFXSGjspil
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have a physical fight in 2023?
Resolves YES if they have a "cage match" or any other unarmed martial arts match in 2023, according to reliable media reporting. Otherwise NO. https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-wants-cage-fight-with-mark-zuckerberg-yes-really/ [link preview]
2023-06-22T10:11:33
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T00:09:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w6bCD1ux7Y1db5mbMfTC
Will South Korea win their group stage match against Germany? Women's World Cup 2023
Resolves YES if South Korea wins their group stage match. Resolves NO if they draw or Germany wins. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit. The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
2023-06-22T08:58:22
2023-08-03T05:15:22
2023-08-03T05:15:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9VmW8BSY8QeiJHWPcLW6
Will China win their group stage match against Haiti? Women's World Cup 2023
Resolves YES if China wins their group stage match. Resolves NO if they draw or Haiti wins. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit. The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
2023-06-22T08:45:10
2023-07-28T06:04:01
2023-07-28T06:04:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7fRKiQwGOBv8cEi9KGbv
Will England win their group stage match against Denmark? Women's World Cup 2023
DISCLOSURE: I will be in attendance at this game and may bet in this market. :) Resolves YES if England wins their group stage match. Resolves NO if they draw or Denmark wins. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit. The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete.
2023-06-22T08:44:33
2023-07-28T03:25:06
2023-07-28T03:25:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wV5waC3mKKqN7IPXDzfx
Will the United States win their group stage match against the Netherlands? Women's World Cup 2023
Resolves YES if the United States wins their group stage match. Resolves NO if they draw or the Netherlands wins. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit. The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market.
2023-06-22T08:41:33
2023-07-26T19:59:01
2023-07-26T19:59:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JYhTbrDTRu5Na2AB8fOq
Will Will Hurd make it onto the debate stage of an RNC sanctioned debate during the Republican primaries?
If Will Hurd is invited to and attends an RNC sanctioned presidential primary debate, and makes it onto the stage as a debate participant along with other candidates, then this market will resolve to YES.
2023-06-22T06:20:05
2024-01-13T22:50:11
2024-01-13T22:50:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-u6VUCtKdXxWy4YBq9q1A
Will at least one person on board the Titan submersible be awarded a Darwin award?
Resolves YES if one or more people on board the Titan is awarded the Darwin award. Resolves NO otherwise. Close time may be adjusted.
2023-06-22T06:11:27
2024-02-29T14:59:00
2024-09-30T00:47:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rgtxbzBMl26ntEdWkwoz
Will the Billionaire-fight happen in 2023?
Sometimes the world is just so weird it is undescribable: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65981876 Musk an Zuckerberg want to fight each other. I can't believe this. Will this fight really really happen? Resolution criteria YES if all of these are met They both enter the same ring at the same time to have some kind of fistfight. At least one of them tries to land a serious punch. This all happens before EOY 2023. I will not trade in this market myself. [link preview]
2023-06-22T04:44:30
2023-12-31T06:14:00
2024-01-01T14:52:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pxqh20egCybykmS9OGdY
Will the Bank of England base rate reach 6% by 2024?
The Bank of England is the UK's central bank. Will their base rate (also known as the official bank rate) be set at or above 6% at any point during 2023 or 2024? The Bank of England is scheduled to set rates at the following meetings during 2023 (with more meetings to come in 2024): 2nd February - rate raised from 3.5% to 4% 23rd March - rate raised from 4% to 4.25% 11th May - rate raised from 4.25% to 4.5% 22nd June - rate raised from 4.5% to 5% 3rd August - rate raised from 5% to 5.25% 21st September - rate held at 5.25% 2nd November - rate held at 5.25% 14th December - rate held at 5.25% The bank may also call an emergency meeting or change rates between meetings, though they try very hard to avoid doing this to ensure confidence and stability!
2023-06-22T04:21:19
2024-12-19T05:59:03
2024-12-19T05:59:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LJvQiWvVs3MIUMQQV2IO
Will there be a fight between Musk and Zuckerberg in which grappling is legal before 2025?
Zuckerberg is competent at BJJ. Musk has not shown any ability to grapple before. If a fight between them were to be set up, Zuckerberg's advantage could be overwhelming. It is possible that to mitigate this, a fight will instead only be limited to striking/stand up. If a fight takes place before 2025 between Musk and Zuck where grappling/wrestling is legal, as in MMA rules, submission grappling rules, wrestling rules, BJJ rules, Judo rules, etc., then this market will resolve YES. If no fight takes place before 2025, or a fight takes place but it is limited to standup/striking, as in Boxing rules, Kickboxing rules, Muay Thai rules, etc., then this market will resolve to NO.
2023-06-22T04:13:01
2025-01-01T00:52:43
2025-01-01T00:52:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1ZLEaMOAZekV25A83IMr
Will Bitcoin Halving happen before April 24, 12 AM ET?
As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks re mined ("Bitcoin Halving" - aapproximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 (approximately by year 2140). The next Bitcoin halving date is scheduled to take place at block 840,000. This market will resolve to YES, if Bitcoin block #840,000 is mined before April 24, 12 AM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO. As of now, the block reward is 6.25 coins per block and will decrease to 3.125 BTC per block post-halving. Watch the current block and new blocks being mined at https://timechaincalendar.com/en or http://mempool.space [image][link preview]
2023-06-22T01:18:16
2024-04-19T18:33:34
2024-04-19T18:33:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lT3TjF3iDHcAgom0WFek
Musk vs Zuckerberg fight: will the fight go ahead in 2023?
Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have agreed to fight each other in a cage match. As of market creation no date has been confirmed for the fight. This market will resolve 'yes' if the fight actually happens by the end of 2023.
2023-06-22T00:47:28
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T23:25:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-942WzhMUDT9ZOy2CQidZ
Violin playing robot by 2025?
Resolves YES if already happened. I tell the robot to play me <insert popular violin music>, and it does, fairly decently (it searches for the notes or whatever on its own, must be physically manipulating the violin, not digital synthesis of the music) by 2025 = end of 2024
2023-06-21T23:22:36
2024-12-31T10:29:00
2025-02-20T23:43:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kDKP9RCLNUXhwLepbNHQ
Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Friday 23nd June?
As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content. Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past 8 days, either because they wanted to bring their subreddit back or becuase Reddit's admins threatened to kick out their moderators if they didn't come back online. This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2763/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 31.3%. If this figure ticks below 25%, the market resolves to YES. The deadline is Friday at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market). Previous markets tracking the progress: @/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida @/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday @/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits (With thanks to @MP who came up with the idea and created the first two markets here) The next iteration of the market (now with a longer deadline since things seem to be slowing down): (https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833)Resolution notes: If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
2023-06-21T23:09:47
2023-06-23T14:00:00
2023-06-23T14:05:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-L0few8L4kaHcAqnI8obi
Will the best LLM in 2023 have <1 trillion parameters?
Conversational LLM
2023-06-21T23:03:25
2024-01-01T01:00:42
2024-01-01T01:00:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-268tkJoq3pyXEKOK3Kqk
Will Destiny start a podcast with Erudite by the end of 2023?
https://clips.twitch.tv/UglyBlindingShrimpLitty-LEekazHKdDiUt2bH [link preview]
2023-06-21T21:14:28
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-04T15:01:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-t41Zmo8R6iQqzWMzeuRA
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg Actually Fight in a Cage Match In 2023?
Apparently Elon has in Jest offered to fight Mark Zuckerberg in a Cage match. Zuckerberg has accepted on his instagram story: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1671687427382034432 https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/21/23769263/mark-zuckerberg-elon-musk-fight-cage-match-worldstar [image]https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1671683969312604162 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1672004064480034816 [image]Update: Aug6 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1688091377823895552 The event will be apparently live streamed on X. ## NOTE As there is talk about Elon and Zuck fighting in a Coloseum, For this question, I define 'Cage Match' as an MMA Style Cage like this https://stedyx.com/en/offer/131-octagon-cages/ usually seen in PayPerView events. I don't think the Coloseum counts, but If they installed a cage in the coloseum for the event, then that would resolve "YES'.
2023-06-21T18:51:39
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-05T10:09:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hqTneuDcF7jXJt4tEHlj
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg officialy announce they're having a fight by January 2024?
Elon Musk recently said he was up to a cage fight against Zuckerberg. [image]EDIT: A comment I gave for @BrendanFinan on the resolution criteria, even though I think it's clear I am expecting they annoucing something real, like setting a date, or that they picked the location, or that they closed with UFC for the fight. As they are both social media moguls, posting on social media could count, but I'll rely on judgement and in the mainstream press to adjudicate. Honestly? I don't expect this to be controversial at all, so that's why I deemed it OK to bet on this market. The fact that Musk is world's best troll will make me more skeptical of believing in him (he already tweeted it's happening), so I perhaps may rely more on MZ and Meta comms I may bet on this market. Related markets [markets]
2023-06-21T13:47:09
2024-01-31T18:59:00
2024-02-01T12:35:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tDYmFCSc2hi7GbK1EzLV
Will Remco Evenepoel race for Ineos Grenadiers in 2024?
Resolves YES if Remco Evenepoel participates in a UCI road race for Ineos Grenadiers during 2024. Resolves NO if he does not particpate in any UCI road races in 2024, and also resolves NO as soon as he participates in a UCI road race for another team even he eventually transfers and races for Ineos later in the year. If the team changes its name, I will still resolve with the 2023 team name. Similarly, if Ineos merges with another team, for example if Remco races for the merged team it resolves YES.
2023-06-21T09:05:26
2024-02-10T06:35:06
2024-02-10T06:35:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-F1yZFkKnyiykY77kQmqO
Will Remco Evenepoel race for Soudal–Quick-Step in 2024?
Resolves YES if Remco Evenepoel participates in a UCI road race for Soudal–Quick-Step during 2024. Resolves NO if he does not particpate in any UCI road races in 2024, and also resolves NO as soon as he participates in a UCI road race for another team after transfering teams (even in the very unlikely scenario that he would return later to Soudal for another race). If the team changes its name, I will still resolve with the 2023 team name. Similarly, if Soudal–Quick-Step merges with another team, for example if Remco remains in the merged team (and races for it), it resolves YES.
2023-06-21T09:05:14
2024-02-10T06:34:07
2024-02-10T06:34:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-g8woDo9Jh4Z6c20QwFKy
Will Joe Manchin run for President in 2024 as a Third-Party or Independent Candidate?
There's been some speculation that he may run. I will resolve yes if he declares his candidacy as a third party or independent. lf he doesn't run by the time of the conventions next year, I will resolve no.
2023-06-21T09:03:13
2024-07-01T20:59:00
2024-07-17T17:39:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vHcNry5l709IZ8DDdDwv
Will Italy qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-21T08:39:00
2023-11-20T13:48:21
2023-11-20T13:48:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-m8uicFR65XZbUx2CRncs
Will Poland qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-21T08:36:47
2024-03-26T15:34:20
2024-03-26T15:34:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SaeiwWA1c1b1ZD4DGCW2
Will Primoz Roglic race for Team Jumbo–Visma in 2024?
Resolves YES if Primož Roglič participates in a UCI road race for Team Jumbo-Visma during 2024. Resolves NO if he does not particpate in any UCI road races in 2024, and also resolves NO as soon as he participates in a UCI road race for another team after transfering teams (even in the very unlikely scenario that he would return later to Jumbo-Visma for another race). If the team changes its name, I will still resolve with the 2023 team name. Similarly, if Team Jumbo-Visma merges with another team, for example if Roglic remains in the merged team (and races for it), it resolves YES.
2023-06-21T08:36:27
2024-03-03T20:59:00
2024-03-14T06:32:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lWIbFHq2gV56j0pl1hSA
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by May 2025?
"And actually, you know, since we’re probably going to—we’re having real rates that are going to have to be meaningfully positive, and significantly so, for us to get inflation down, that probably means—that certainly means that it will be appropriate to cut rates at such time as inflation is coming down really significantly. And, again, we’re talking about a couple years out, I think." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell If this prediction of Chair Powell holds true and the FOMC doesn't cut rates until the end of May 2025, this market resolves to NO. Otherwise, it resolves to YES.
2023-06-21T06:37:51
2024-11-17T09:35:21
2024-11-17T09:35:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Qj0LBLAzMSMYSJozaDO0
Will Joe Biden drop out of the Presidential race before the election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-21T00:12:30
2024-07-21T22:09:22
2024-07-21T22:09:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dfElWJ0J445AXoNHXZk7
Will UAP have more searches than AGI at the end of June 2024?
https://trends.google.com.br/trends/explore?geo=US&q=UAP,AGI&hl=pt-BR
2023-06-20T20:42:02
2024-06-30T20:59:00
2024-07-01T03:13:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-suywOEi5QrSUxBWf0j0j
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong be released in 2024?
yes if release date is within 2024 no if in 2023 or after 2024
2023-06-20T20:26:30
2024-12-31T08:59:00
2024-12-31T21:48:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g2JY2WubgmVKW4BP8wL5
Will Abrams tanks be deployed in combat in Ukraine by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-20T16:21:01
2023-12-31T14:06:46
2023-12-31T14:06:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YhLqmwFqqcADsAY0acJJ
Chandrayaan 3 to successfully land a rover on the Moon in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-20T16:01:00
2023-08-23T09:35:29
2023-08-23T09:35:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hbwLg1Q6XGJ5L1RBOYAs
BJP to win the 2024 Elections with a majority?
Resolves YES if Bharatiya Janata Party wins the 2024 Indian general elections with a clear majority. Seats won by alliance parties will not be counted.
2023-06-20T15:56:41
2024-05-30T23:59:00
2024-06-05T13:07:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n02I19Kq73GHtoRhcpjE
Will the Bank of England base rate be 4% or lower anytime in 2024?
[markets][markets](https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-base-rate-b41ff89ae1f2)
2023-06-20T13:09:04
2024-12-19T05:56:32
2024-12-19T05:56:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AHZ4oZCRI0a4N1tr3b9L
Will Joe Rogan host a debate between Robert F. Kennedy Jr and another person by the end of 2023?
[tweet]
2023-06-20T09:40:39
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-12T05:16:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lWojxiYMjgmOZOMVVvJu
Will the OceanGate Expedition submersible be found within 1 month?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/19/us/titanic-missing-sub-tourist-tour Resolves yes if the submersible is found within 1 month. (In any state broken/whole, and does not need to be recovered, just located) [link preview]
2023-06-20T05:48:26
2023-06-22T14:36:01
2023-06-22T14:36:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tX9tntfJqbcbRbR9twfN
Will Novak Djokovic win Men's Singles at Wimbledon?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-20T05:37:31
2023-07-16T14:06:27
2023-07-16T14:06:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UeaVV8JpBfj1cb6ENhxb
Will the Titan Submersible be rescued with passengers still alive before their 96 hours of oxygen is depleted?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-06-20T05:36:51
2023-06-22T06:00:00
2023-06-22T06:30:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2lQFHfKqDFupWUXFzRP0
Will the passengers in the missing Titanic tourist submersible be safely rescued by this week?
Latest Update (as of June 22) 🚨🌊 "The submersible, which is part of an OceanGate Expeditions tour that offers passengers a once-in-a-lifetime experience to explore the Titanic wreckage, went missing on Sunday after losing contact with the research vessel Polar Prince. On a website page for the missing vessel, Titan, OceanGate Expedition describes the sub as having a “life support” of 96 hours for five crew members. Asked how much of the 96 hours were left, Mauger said on Monday that officials anticipated there were somewhere between 70 to the full 96 hours available. On average, the ship went down with four days-worth of oxygen on Sunday. The submersible has enough oxygen to last until 7am-midday Thursday. Factors such as oxygen levels, intense water pressure, and the remoteness of the area make the search difficult. The wreckage of the Titanic is also located at a depth of 13,000 feet — a point too deep for typical U.S. Navy subs — which typically go down to 2,000 or 3,000 feet — to descend to.  Canadian aircraft dropped a sonar buoy into the ocean listening for tapping or talking in an effort to pinpoint the submersible. Underwater sounds, with a banging noise every 30 minutes, were recently detected but sourcing efforts have not yielded results yet. For context, when submarine crew face an underwater disaster and are unable to communicate with the surface they are advised to bang on their submersible's hull to be detected by sonar. Search efforts have currently relocated to find the origin of the noises and more results are expected to arrive Thursday morning. Scientists warn that it's very difficult to discern the source of noises in the vast ocean and are analyzing all reported sounds in the search area. The Titan has seven backup systems intended to return the vessel to surface in case of emergency, including a ballast that can be dropped, a balloon, and thrusters. Some of the backup systems are designed to work even if all aboard the submersible are unconscious; there are sandbags held by hooks that dissolve after a certain number of hours in the water and release the sandbags, letting the vessel float to the surface. The fact that they didn't use one of the multiple methods to resurface indicates that they might either be stuck on something below the surface or that they experienced a structural failure and imploded. However, those aboard will know how to stretch their available air (as taught in Explorers Club training), and the cold environment will also depress metabolic body functions and decrease the air needed so there is a chance for a larger time window to help with search efforts. A remotely operated vehicle has recently discovered a "debris field" in the Titan vessel search area. Final Update: The US Coast Guard confirms the Titan submersible imploded near the wreckage of the Titanic and has no survivors. May they rest in peace and well wishes are sent to the affected families." Resolves YES if 1+ passengers are found and rescued in one week — up to June 23 (where we assume oxygen levels are extended beyond the current expected capacity of 70 hours) Case description paraphrased from live news reporting sources and forums: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/titanic-missing-submersible-live-updates-rcna90103 [link preview]
2023-06-20T05:00:49
2023-06-22T12:33:21
2023-06-22T12:33:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wbMsMhTfSgayv9idzVHW
Will the at least one person onboard the missing Oceangate submersible be found alive?
Incident: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65934887 [link preview]
2023-06-20T04:04:44
2023-06-22T12:55:24
2023-06-22T12:55:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-APCx1MetLPcfwdUre8xF
Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits have returned by Thursday 22nd June?
As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content. Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past 8 days, either because they wanted to bring their subreddit back or becuase Reddit's admins threatened to kick out their moderators if they didn't come back online. Inspired by these markets from @MP: @/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida @/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday Since MP hasn't made a followup market, here it is! As before, this market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "3415/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 38.7%. If this figure ticks below 25%, the market resolves to YES. The deadline is Thursday at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market). The deadline is set so that I'll be awake, but also becuase that seems pretty close to the time which we would expect to hit 25% if we follow the same trajectory as the past few days! Resolution notes: If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
2023-06-20T00:33:06
2023-06-22T14:00:00
2023-06-22T14:16:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f3M3czQBZQykdFEecOmR
Will Red Bull's 2023 RB19 be the most dominant F1 car of all time?
The McLaren-Honda MP4/4 won 94% (15 out of 16) of the races in the 1988 season, a record which still stands today. But so far, the Red Bull RB19 has won all 8 races in 2023. Can they top the almighty MP4/4? This would require not losing more than one race this year.
2023-06-20T00:14:17
2023-11-26T07:48:37
2023-11-26T07:48:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ka2B78MOJX7xYiaW9APl
Will Max Verstappen's 2023 season be the most dominant F1 season of all time?
Measured by percent of races won in a season. Last year, Max had the 4th most dominant driver season ever, and the most number of wins ever in a season. Can he take the crown this year? If there are 22 races as currently planned, this would require 17 wins. Alberto Ascari, 1952, 6 of 8 (75%) Michael Schumacher, 2004, 13 of 18 (72%) Sebastian Vettel, 2013, 13 of 19 (68%) Max Verstappen, 2022, 15 of 22 (68%)
2023-06-20T00:03:11
2023-11-20T17:45:27
2023-11-20T17:45:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-e9nZwSYu8yYY1xwIdjFi
Will RFK Jr. break his Google Trends record by end of July?
Searches for "Robert F. Kennedy, Jr." (Democratic anti-vaxxer opponent to Joe Biden who Manifold thinks has a 4% chance of being nominated...we'll see) have peaked on April 6, 2023, according to Google Trends. Will the record be broken in June or July? General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
2023-06-19T21:06:40
2023-07-31T23:59:00
2023-08-01T00:00:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LcTYGScuULbbLHDEWY7C
Will Oppenheimer be rated at least 8.5 in IMDB at the end of 2023?
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15398776 Related: https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-oppenheimer-be-rated-at-least-bc7eafa05269
2023-06-19T20:19:56
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2023-12-31T21:07:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9lho6CfECy94z0iExMsf
Will Killers of the Flower Moon be rated at least 8.0 in IMDB at the end of 2023?
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002
2023-06-19T20:16:24
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2023-12-31T21:05:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5XCezzYPkCahXsGAyuk2
Will the OceanGate Expedition submersible be found within 1 week?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/19/us/titanic-missing-sub-tourist-tour Resolves yes if the submersible is found within 1 week. (In any state broken/whole, and does not need to be recovered, just located) [link preview]
2023-06-19T19:46:54
2023-06-22T14:35:49
2023-06-22T14:35:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TZd9sd2AzYfetKgRLCMX
Will the US bring back defector visas to compete with China?
Through legislation by the end of the 118th congress. Question inspired by Palmer Lucky interview https://open.spotify.com/episode/0hGZMFqNcIDVYiflguKwKZ?si=kPzuBAqmTG-ZQo0nAI1oCg&t=2720&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A7wHYcVRmMP6rWQL9lVQJlL [link preview]
2023-06-19T17:33:16
2025-01-06T20:59:00
2025-01-19T12:00:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uXdRymwCT4brt8mfKrP2
Will billionaire Hamish Harding be found alive?
Resolves on retrieval of submersible or 2 weeks https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65953872 [link preview]
2023-06-19T14:33:31
2023-06-22T15:38:51
2023-06-22T15:38:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RVDk6I1sJL3LX32lnhYu
Will Max Verstappen win all remaining Formula 1 Grand Prix in 2023?
He's been on a roll. But surely he won't win every race! Right?
2023-06-19T11:48:52
2023-09-17T07:42:25
2023-09-17T07:42:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QLdcYfes6w4VSddzc5Lc
Will the crew and passengers of the Titanic explorer be found safely by the end of the week?
A submarine containing tourists exploring the wreck of the Titanic has gone missing and there is currently a search underway: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/19/titanic-tourist-submarine-missing-north-atlantic Will the submarine be located with everyone on board alive (or will everyone who was on board be found alive) by the end of the week? Resolution criterea: "The end of the week" means the end of Sunday UK time. So the closing time of this market. For this to count as "found safely" and resolve to YES, they need to be located with some chance of rescue. So locating the submarine without knowing whether anyone on board is alive or even locating it with the knowledge that the passengers are alive without anyone being able to get to them before their air runs out would resolve to NO. Let me know if you would like any other elements of the resolution criterea to be clarified.
2023-06-19T10:24:46
2023-06-23T00:35:11
2023-06-23T00:35:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5oz3By51s0rqy81dNghJ
Will someone with a fields medal make a Manifold market by end of 2024?
Has to have happened after market creation.
2023-06-19T10:16:51
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-02T16:58:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sj3ncH5dk93F88LWM0Ps
Will a replicating AI take over the Replit cloud by EOY 24?
As per their CEO Amjad Masad here (https://twitter.com/amasad/status/1670473919504220160): "There is a non-zero chance BabyAGI will self-replicate inside Replit and take over our cloud. If it happens it happens." This market resolves to YES if, by 1 Jan 2025, we learn that some AI program self-replicated inside Replit sufficiently to actually substantially inconvenience Replit users. If it is unclear whether this happened, a Twitter poll or similar will be used to adjudicate.
2023-06-19T08:53:50
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T05:33:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-60XUnIZcQLl0wSTA7sXP
Will Twitter be forced into involuntary bankruptcy proceedings by the end of 2023?
If a company has more than 12 creditors, any 3 of them can join together to put the company into involuntary bankruptcy proceedings. Twitter certainly meets the minimum requirement and they also haven't been paying a lot of bills. This includes any rent on its offices, fees to arbitration company dealing with ex-employees, contractors, etc. This market resolves YES if any creditors work together to force bankruptcy proceedings by the end of 2023.
2023-06-19T07:48:47
2023-12-31T14:05:25
2023-12-31T14:05:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IiYcDyn7FM0BwggQZ88f
Will at least 50 delegates at the 2024 Democratic National Convention vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?
The Democratic National Convention is the Democratic Party's presidential nominating convention. If at least 50 of the voting delegates at the convention vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be the Democratic Party's nominee for president, this market will resolve to YES. If 49 or fewer delegates at the convention vote for him, this market will resolve to NO. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention
2023-06-19T07:05:43
2024-08-22T23:33:26
2024-08-22T23:33:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tai2P5orwtskqbOwFz4f
Will a single independent candidate (barring Trump) get more than 5% of the pop vote in the 2024 US Pres election?
If trump runs as independepentant and gets more than 5% of vote while no other independent does then resolves to NO.
2023-06-19T05:38:12
2024-11-12T20:40:38
2024-11-12T20:40:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZzhOSrW7QJD8Xx1ZsusF
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 1/1/2024 be 4.5% or higher?
Using the closing price on Jan 1st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y If it is 4.5% or greater, this market resolves as YES Otherwise it resolves to NO [link preview]
2023-06-19T05:00:56
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T12:19:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eSO9sSqb9m37RD9F8ofL
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $200 by Oct 31?
Last price: 2023-10-31 $170.77 (will try to update major moves or every Friday after Nasdaq close) Resolves YES if AAPL trades >= $200 during any regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) up to October 31, 2023, and NO if that hasn't happened by then. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high price, adjusted for any future stock splits. For example, if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 but reference price for this market would be x2. Alternatively, I might update the title and resolution criteria to use the post-split price corresponding to the current $200, so would change from $200 to $100 in the 2:1 example (I'd appreciate suggestions in comments regarding these two alternatives, likely most relevant for longer-term markets).
2023-06-19T04:24:00
2023-10-31T18:54:23
2023-10-31T18:54:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bZg6AZi8RcesSU5eoU4B
Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by June 30th 2024?
BlackRock, a leading player in the asset management industry, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 15, 2023, for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) known as the "iShares Bitcoin Trust"​1​. Despite the recent regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, BlackRock's application suggests confidence in the asset class and could be seen as a positive sign for the crypto industry​1​. The BlackRock "iShares Bitcoin Trust" is planning to use data provided by Coinbase's custody services, a collaboration that has been in the works since mid-2022​1​. (https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesBills/will-blackrock-have-a-bitcoin-spot-12b51b29b839?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesBills/will-blackrock-have-a-bitcoin-spot?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw)
2023-06-19T03:43:51
2024-01-10T16:12:53
2024-01-10T16:12:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sUw6S4HtGQKZOYt37ONj
Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by December 31st 2023?
BlackRock, a leading player in the asset management industry, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 15, 2023, for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) known as the "iShares Bitcoin Trust"​1​. Despite the recent regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, BlackRock's application suggests confidence in the asset class and could be seen as a positive sign for the crypto industry​1​. The BlackRock "iShares Bitcoin Trust" is planning to use data provided by Coinbase's custody services, a collaboration that has been in the works since mid-2022​1​. (https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesBills/will-blackrock-have-a-bitcoin-spot-5fd1d5a2f3f5?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesBills/will-blackrock-have-a-bitcoin-spot?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw)
2023-06-19T03:40:51
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2023-12-31T05:05:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XlDqzx3goBWsmGUurvO3
Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by September 30th 2023?
BlackRock, a leading player in the asset management industry, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 15, 2023, for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) known as the "iShares Bitcoin Trust"​1​. Despite the recent regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, BlackRock's application suggests confidence in the asset class and could be seen as a positive sign for the crypto industry​1​. The BlackRock "iShares Bitcoin Trust" is planning to use data provided by Coinbase's custody services, a collaboration that has been in the works since mid-2022​1​. (https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesBills/will-blackrock-have-a-bitcoin-spot-12b51b29b839?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesBills/will-blackrock-have-a-bitcoin-spot-5fd1d5a2f3f5?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw)
2023-06-19T03:38:20
2023-09-30T06:59:00
2023-10-01T00:05:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SvY92Xx00qPXWQgeVoqg
Will any of {Jason Tatum, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander} win the NBA MVP 2024?
Resolves YES if any player of the group {Jason Tatum, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander} wins the regular season MVP of the NBA 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
2023-06-19T02:10:48
2024-05-08T17:19:53
2024-05-08T17:19:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I5chRXxP92x8ZJt5Gl5Q
Will total crypto market cap be above $1.1T on august 20th, according to coinmarketcap?
At some random time on august 20th I will look up the number on coinmarketcap.com , and resolve the market accordingly. #Crypto
2023-06-18T16:07:01
2023-08-21T03:00:09
2023-08-21T03:00:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-K00yXZxqUa35Z8KIK2fC
Will climate change be discussed in all official 2024 U.S. Presidential debates?
Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if climate change is discussed in all official 2024 U.S. Presidential debates, as confirmed by the official transcripts of the debates. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
2023-06-18T15:21:43
2024-11-29T18:59:00
2024-12-02T16:14:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mX5n1zChEBxQUvOk7fBu
Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if Kamala Harris is the Democratic Nominee for the 2024 United States Presidential Election, as confirmed by official Democratic Party announcements or reputable news sources. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
2023-06-18T15:17:08
2024-08-29T10:27:25
2024-08-29T10:27:25
yes
MANIFOLD