id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-FGmdmIKP2iEGwmugOglE | Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 27th? | Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow. | 2023-06-23T23:13:16 | 2023-06-27T20:59:00 | 2023-06-27T21:11:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I0K79ODxU0Poos25al0Z | Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 25th? | Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow. | 2023-06-23T23:12:46 | 2023-06-25T20:59:00 | 2023-06-25T21:01:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2YMtpzZmZQ0sh77D6YPE | Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 24th? | Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow. | 2023-06-23T23:12:33 | 2023-06-24T20:59:00 | 2023-06-24T21:03:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FXizWjQ3leFQCBVhdbur | Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) stay alive and free through end of Aug? | Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of Aug, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES.
Background: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256 Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny'" | 2023-06-23T22:29:33 | 2023-08-29T13:18:53 | 2023-08-29T13:18:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aWyfr8c9fdP6qEBatZ8b | Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight by Sep 1? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg both announce that they have agreed to fight one another by Sep 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, an “announcement” will be defined as Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly confirmin... | 2023-06-23T22:25:57 | 2023-09-01T20:59:00 | 2023-09-02T12:22:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Jmdji2seKJ1XObbgLCwg | Will there be a new President of Russia by December 31, 2023? | Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if there are credible news reports confirming that someone other than Vladimir Putin has assumed the office of President of Russia on or before December 31, 2023. The market resolves to NO if no such change occurs by the specified date. | 2023-06-23T21:37:28 | 2024-01-01T10:30:12 | 2024-01-01T10:30:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CsYeroQkv4EkeEWpl8pE | Will Prigozhin make it to Moscow alive and free? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-23T21:07:02 | 2023-08-26T19:44:19 | 2023-08-26T19:44:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nluFMu08Yio23YHqfC59 | Will Wagner Group gain control of nuclear weapons in 2023? | The physical weapons themselves, they don't necessarily need the ability to detonate them.
I won't resolve this market "Yes" unless there's confirmation from serious western intelligence. | 2023-06-23T20:19:08 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:33:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-flGzTtNErDVUCd1BeDAe | Will Putin cease to be President of Russia before August 1, 2023? | This question will be resolved using reputable media sources. If an answer cannot be determined, the question will resolve as N/A. | 2023-06-23T20:16:35 | 2023-07-31T20:59:00 | 2023-08-01T22:49:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U9ZOvv5txhE40xmr09KQ | Will Prigozhin's forces control any major city in Russia militarily on July 1, 2023? | A major city will be considered to be a city with a population of 500,000 or more. The question will be resolved using reputable media. If a clear answer cannot be determined, the question will be resolved to N/A. | 2023-06-23T20:01:05 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-07-05T09:44:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lzod4NoyNARS5P9jwpQZ | Will Russian military or security forces engage in a shootout with a military opponent in Moscow during 2023? | Has to be a firefight (shots fired at by both groups towards each other) with an organised group of uniformed combatants. | 2023-06-23T18:56:47 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:14:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZVELqilMUpcIjFKlgwzx | Will more than 1000 people die in an internal conflict in Russia by 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-23T18:50:47 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-04T03:15:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ooCGpnifDYVzmRKWd9ZX | Will Russia will be in a state of civil war before July 14th 2023 | Tensions have been escalating in Russia throughout 2023, marked by significant political and military events. In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia's suspension of participation in the New START treaty and hinted at the development of new nuclear weapons if the U.S. conducted any nuclear tests... | 2023-06-23T17:10:34 | 2023-07-14T00:00:00 | 2023-07-19T01:24:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3Eyye13TvWvY0IdoPcI3 | Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) be arrested by July 15? | Resolves YES if Yevgeny Prigozhin is arrested by July 15 2023 (11:59 ET), otherwise NO. Resolves based on consensus of reliable media reporting.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256
The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group is being investigated for inciting mutiny after accusing the Russian military of a... | 2023-06-23T15:36:58 | 2023-07-15T20:59:00 | 2023-07-17T08:09:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xzRQWXY58cR36bWErzrm | Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) stay alive and free through end of July? | Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES.
To clarify what that means:
If reliable media reports (at any time, even after July) say he was jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the ... | 2023-06-23T15:22:44 | 2023-08-21T15:54:50 | 2023-08-21T15:54:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JhrScDr6ObHG0RVhK79W | Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) stay alive and free through end of June? | Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of June, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES. | 2023-06-23T15:22:19 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-07-01T22:10:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Om1ehAOGUjDqmjTZtC2y | Will Wagner PMC (the org) resume operations alongside Russia in 2023? | Based on recent footage showing what seems to be a destroyed camp, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has declared that it was due to an attack by Russian forces, which could lead to the dissolution of their "cooperation". Regardless of the outcome of the immediate media campaign and potential internal conflict, will Wagn... | 2023-06-23T15:16:21 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-02T19:31:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yLXFSZWc7u6wh3cjjjbS | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader be in prison by the end of 2024? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-06-23T14:16:27 | 2023-09-06T19:42:27 | 2023-09-06T19:42:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8ZJTKP4CQPQgSpFr0b5E | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group still be alive by the end of 2024? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-06-23T14:12:22 | 2023-08-29T04:21:06 | 2023-08-29T04:21:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-A0uKxcIjjHNxw7vtXEKl | Will there be a successful coup in Russia by the end of 2024? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-06-23T13:48:42 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:36:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gVyhRWDR9BfptUl43Mdd | Will Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-23T13:47:04 | 2023-12-31T16:21:44 | 2023-12-31T16:21:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NTvZoXTwxclEN3qidYap | Will Russia have a civil war by the end of 2024? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-06-23T13:45:48 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-24T21:38:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u25Sl9uaATsilhkCr7uU | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be alive and free at the end of 2023? | "Free" as in: not in Jail. | 2023-06-23T13:34:26 | 2023-11-21T22:45:41 | 2023-11-21T22:45:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ | Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now? | Rumors are going round that Wagner units are attempting a coup against the russian ministry of defense.
I will try to find better sources than this.
https://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/update-2-russian-mercenary-boss-vows-to-avenge-alleged-army-attack-moscow-denies-accusation/ar-AA1cXjLX
Here is a translation of P... | 2023-06-23T13:09:17 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-07-02T11:46:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FfWfiXSu50xks3Zd0Erl | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin still be alive and posting videos at the end of July? | Dear Leader of PMC Wagner and Democratic People's Republic of Rostov-on-Don, will he prevail and keep shitposting on telegram?
Resolving YES if he posts at least one video message in the last week of July and is alive on July 31
*update June 25 - he has traded Wagner and Rostov for an undisclosed amount of potatoes a... | 2023-06-23T12:58:11 | 2023-07-31T11:00:00 | 2023-07-31T14:01:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kgibisE0j3R1ahp3SDDd | Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 28th June | As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content.
Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past two weeks, either b... | 2023-06-23T12:13:59 | 2023-06-28T14:00:00 | 2023-06-28T14:04:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ANlMTVC6CCY1K7afVE3W | Will Reddit still be in the top 25 most visited websites at the end of 2023? | Resolves according to Wikipedia's List of Most Visited Websites: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites
Reddit is currently #20. Resolves based on whatever data is there on Jan 1, 2024. If Wikipedia lists Reddit as 26th or lower, resolves NO. If Reddit is 25th or higher, resolves YES.
See also:... | 2023-06-23T09:12:41 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:26:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zcbqzJXig46u8yEpJBgL | Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 29th than it closed on June 28th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-06-23T05:30:22 | 2023-06-29T11:00:00 | 2023-06-29T14:03:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9dXfwrRAcuP7w1Oyxxc7 | Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 28th than it closed on June 27th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-06-23T05:30:01 | 2023-06-28T11:00:00 | 2023-06-28T14:18:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZWiGeGQS3Vcs4lPwMvGF | Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 27th than it closed on June 26th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the Goode's S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of June. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
| Rank | Prize |
|----... | 2023-06-23T05:29:39 | 2023-06-27T11:00:00 | 2023-06-27T13:53:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WAvgtM3X8AiSQW0ovcrv | Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight by Aug 1? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg both announce that they have agreed to fight one another by Aug 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, an “announcement” will be defined as Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly confirmin... | 2023-06-23T04:51:04 | 2023-08-01T20:59:00 | 2023-08-01T21:26:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W6B63hYGADLjPvsrYaHA | Will Alaska be closer than Virginia in the 2024 POTUS election? | Alaska was slightly closer than Virginia in 2020, a result that would have been shocking just a few elections earlier, given that Virginia used to be a swing state, and Alaska had a very long history as a solid red state. Both states are trending blue, so if the trend continues, Alaska will be closer in the next electi... | 2023-06-22T21:21:14 | 2024-11-10T19:19:27 | 2024-11-10T19:19:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vb8ZIShPmeUdph6slV0k | Will the Bank of Japan pivot by Q4 2023? | Will the Bank of Japan pivot by Q4 2023? (End of yield curve control, Announce tapering towards the end of QE, raise benchmark interest rates, or other actions adjudicated by me using the mainstream financial media)
I won't bet on this market. | 2023-06-22T21:19:10 | 2023-12-31T10:08:00 | 2023-12-31T10:08:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-THxmLuEawAVIM5V61v2u | Will Reddit still be in the top 20 most visited websites at the end of 2023? | Resolves according to Wikipedia's List of Most Visited Websites: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites
Reddit is currently #20. Resolves based on whatever data is there on Jan 1, 2024. If Wikipedia lists Reddit as 21st or lower, resolves NO. If Reddit is 20th or higher, resolves YES.
See also:... | 2023-06-22T19:35:58 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:26:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qDx2dZ2QSp7zeKzoO7Fx | Will Reddit still be in the top 30 most visited websites at the end of 2023? | Resolves according to Wikipedia's List of Most Visited Websites: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites
Reddit is currently #20. Resolves based on whatever data is there on Jan 1, 2024. If Wikipedia lists Reddit as 31st or lower, resolves NO. If Reddit is 30th or higher, resolves YES.
See also:... | 2023-06-22T19:30:16 | 2024-01-01T00:52:17 | 2024-01-01T00:52:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XmTMqoO7T0KmdD4c3gQq | Did Avi Loeb just find alien technology in the Pacific Ocean? | He found the interstellar object he was looking for and the smile on his face makes it clear he thinks he found it. https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/science/scientists-looking-interstellar-object-8680155/lite/
[link preview] | 2023-06-22T15:19:23 | 2024-07-01T20:59:00 | 2024-07-22T13:32:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EsCfODH8S0FC1lfvwYXa | Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight by July 1? | This question resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-and-zuck-announce-a-fight. The rules are:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg both announce that they have agreed to fight one another by July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
... | 2023-06-22T10:14:38 | 2023-07-01T20:59:00 | 2023-07-01T22:10:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t8chVtDOdbuFXSGjspil | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have a physical fight in 2023? | Resolves YES if they have a "cage match" or any other unarmed martial arts match in 2023, according to reliable media reporting. Otherwise NO.
https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-wants-cage-fight-with-mark-zuckerberg-yes-really/
[link preview] | 2023-06-22T10:11:33 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:09:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w6bCD1ux7Y1db5mbMfTC | Will South Korea win their group stage match against Germany? Women's World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if South Korea wins their group stage match. Resolves NO if they draw or Germany wins. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market. | 2023-06-22T08:58:22 | 2023-08-03T05:15:22 | 2023-08-03T05:15:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9VmW8BSY8QeiJHWPcLW6 | Will China win their group stage match against Haiti? Women's World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if China wins their group stage match. Resolves NO if they draw or Haiti wins. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market. | 2023-06-22T08:45:10 | 2023-07-28T06:04:01 | 2023-07-28T06:04:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7fRKiQwGOBv8cEi9KGbv | Will England win their group stage match against Denmark? Women's World Cup 2023 | DISCLOSURE: I will be in attendance at this game and may bet in this market. :)
Resolves YES if England wins their group stage match. Resolves NO if they draw or Denmark wins. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved... | 2023-06-22T08:44:33 | 2023-07-28T03:25:06 | 2023-07-28T03:25:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wV5waC3mKKqN7IPXDzfx | Will the United States win their group stage match against the Netherlands? Women's World Cup 2023 | Resolves YES if the United States wins their group stage match. Resolves NO if they draw or the Netherlands wins. Resolves N/A if the match doesn't take place for a reason other than a forfeit.
The market is set to close after game day, but may be resolved as soon as the match is complete. I may bet in this market. | 2023-06-22T08:41:33 | 2023-07-26T19:59:01 | 2023-07-26T19:59:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JYhTbrDTRu5Na2AB8fOq | Will Will Hurd make it onto the debate stage of an RNC sanctioned debate during the Republican primaries? | If Will Hurd is invited to and attends an RNC sanctioned presidential primary debate, and makes it onto the stage as a debate participant along with other candidates, then this market will resolve to YES. | 2023-06-22T06:20:05 | 2024-01-13T22:50:11 | 2024-01-13T22:50:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u6VUCtKdXxWy4YBq9q1A | Will at least one person on board the Titan submersible be awarded a Darwin award? | Resolves YES if one or more people on board the Titan is awarded the Darwin award. Resolves NO otherwise.
Close time may be adjusted. | 2023-06-22T06:11:27 | 2024-02-29T14:59:00 | 2024-09-30T00:47:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rgtxbzBMl26ntEdWkwoz | Will the Billionaire-fight happen in 2023? | Sometimes the world is just so weird it is undescribable:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65981876
Musk an Zuckerberg want to fight each other.
I can't believe this.
Will this fight really really happen?
Resolution criteria
YES if all of these are met
They both enter the same ring at the same time to have s... | 2023-06-22T04:44:30 | 2023-12-31T06:14:00 | 2024-01-01T14:52:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pxqh20egCybykmS9OGdY | Will the Bank of England base rate reach 6% by 2024? | The Bank of England is the UK's central bank.
Will their base rate (also known as the official bank rate) be set at or above 6% at any point during 2023 or 2024?
The Bank of England is scheduled to set rates at the following meetings during 2023 (with more meetings to come in 2024):
2nd February - rate raised from 3... | 2023-06-22T04:21:19 | 2024-12-19T05:59:03 | 2024-12-19T05:59:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LJvQiWvVs3MIUMQQV2IO | Will there be a fight between Musk and Zuckerberg in which grappling is legal before 2025? | Zuckerberg is competent at BJJ. Musk has not shown any ability to grapple before. If a fight between them were to be set up, Zuckerberg's advantage could be overwhelming. It is possible that to mitigate this, a fight will instead only be limited to striking/stand up.
If a fight takes place before 2025 between Musk an... | 2023-06-22T04:13:01 | 2025-01-01T00:52:43 | 2025-01-01T00:52:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ZLEaMOAZekV25A83IMr | Will Bitcoin Halving happen before April 24, 12 AM ET? | As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks re mined ("Bitcoin Halving" - aapproximately every 4 years), ... | 2023-06-22T01:18:16 | 2024-04-19T18:33:34 | 2024-04-19T18:33:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lT3TjF3iDHcAgom0WFek | Musk vs Zuckerberg fight: will the fight go ahead in 2023? | Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have agreed to fight each other in a cage match. As of market creation no date has been confirmed for the fight.
This market will resolve 'yes' if the fight actually happens by the end of 2023. | 2023-06-22T00:47:28 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:25:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-942WzhMUDT9ZOy2CQidZ | Violin playing robot by 2025? | Resolves YES if already happened.
I tell the robot to play me <insert popular violin music>, and it does, fairly decently (it searches for the notes or whatever on its own, must be physically manipulating the violin, not digital synthesis of the music)
by 2025 = end of 2024 | 2023-06-21T23:22:36 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-02-20T23:43:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kDKP9RCLNUXhwLepbNHQ | Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Friday 23nd June? | As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content.
Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past 8 days, either beca... | 2023-06-21T23:09:47 | 2023-06-23T14:00:00 | 2023-06-23T14:05:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L0few8L4kaHcAqnI8obi | Will the best LLM in 2023 have <1 trillion parameters? | Conversational LLM | 2023-06-21T23:03:25 | 2024-01-01T01:00:42 | 2024-01-01T01:00:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-268tkJoq3pyXEKOK3Kqk | Will Destiny start a podcast with Erudite by the end of 2023? | https://clips.twitch.tv/UglyBlindingShrimpLitty-LEekazHKdDiUt2bH
[link preview] | 2023-06-21T21:14:28 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-04T15:01:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t41Zmo8R6iQqzWMzeuRA | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg Actually Fight in a Cage Match In 2023? | Apparently Elon has in Jest offered to fight Mark Zuckerberg in a Cage match.
Zuckerberg has accepted on his instagram story:
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1671687427382034432
https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/21/23769263/mark-zuckerberg-elon-musk-fight-cage-match-worldstar
[image]https://twitter.com/elo... | 2023-06-21T18:51:39 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-05T10:09:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hqTneuDcF7jXJt4tEHlj | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg officialy announce they're having a fight by January 2024? | Elon Musk recently said he was up to a cage fight against Zuckerberg.
[image]EDIT: A comment I gave for @BrendanFinan on the resolution criteria, even though I think it's clear
I am expecting they annoucing something real, like setting a date, or that they picked the location, or that they closed with UFC for the fi... | 2023-06-21T13:47:09 | 2024-01-31T18:59:00 | 2024-02-01T12:35:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tDYmFCSc2hi7GbK1EzLV | Will Remco Evenepoel race for Ineos Grenadiers in 2024? | Resolves YES if Remco Evenepoel participates in a UCI road race for Ineos Grenadiers during 2024.
Resolves NO if he does not particpate in any UCI road races in 2024, and also resolves NO as soon as he participates in a UCI road race for another team even he eventually transfers and races for Ineos later in the year.
... | 2023-06-21T09:05:26 | 2024-02-10T06:35:06 | 2024-02-10T06:35:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-F1yZFkKnyiykY77kQmqO | Will Remco Evenepoel race for Soudal–Quick-Step in 2024? | Resolves YES if Remco Evenepoel participates in a UCI road race for Soudal–Quick-Step during 2024.
Resolves NO if he does not particpate in any UCI road races in 2024, and also resolves NO as soon as he participates in a UCI road race for another team after transfering teams (even in the very unlikely scenario that he... | 2023-06-21T09:05:14 | 2024-02-10T06:34:07 | 2024-02-10T06:34:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g8woDo9Jh4Z6c20QwFKy | Will Joe Manchin run for President in 2024 as a Third-Party or Independent Candidate? | There's been some speculation that he may run. I will resolve yes if he declares his candidacy as a third party or independent.
lf he doesn't run by the time of the conventions next year, I will resolve no. | 2023-06-21T09:03:13 | 2024-07-01T20:59:00 | 2024-07-17T17:39:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vHcNry5l709IZ8DDdDwv | Will Italy qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-21T08:39:00 | 2023-11-20T13:48:21 | 2023-11-20T13:48:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m8uicFR65XZbUx2CRncs | Will Poland qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-21T08:36:47 | 2024-03-26T15:34:20 | 2024-03-26T15:34:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SaeiwWA1c1b1ZD4DGCW2 | Will Primoz Roglic race for Team Jumbo–Visma in 2024? | Resolves YES if Primož Roglič participates in a UCI road race for Team Jumbo-Visma during 2024.
Resolves NO if he does not particpate in any UCI road races in 2024, and also resolves NO as soon as he participates in a UCI road race for another team after transfering teams (even in the very unlikely scenario that he wo... | 2023-06-21T08:36:27 | 2024-03-03T20:59:00 | 2024-03-14T06:32:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lWIbFHq2gV56j0pl1hSA | Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by May 2025? | "And actually, you know, since we’re probably going to—we’re having real rates that are going to have to be meaningfully positive, and significantly so, for us to get inflation down, that probably means—that certainly means that it will be appropriate to cut rates at such time as inflation is coming down really signifi... | 2023-06-21T06:37:51 | 2024-11-17T09:35:21 | 2024-11-17T09:35:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qj0LBLAzMSMYSJozaDO0 | Will Joe Biden drop out of the Presidential race before the election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-21T00:12:30 | 2024-07-21T22:09:22 | 2024-07-21T22:09:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dfElWJ0J445AXoNHXZk7 | Will UAP have more searches than AGI at the end of June 2024? | https://trends.google.com.br/trends/explore?geo=US&q=UAP,AGI&hl=pt-BR
| 2023-06-20T20:42:02 | 2024-06-30T20:59:00 | 2024-07-01T03:13:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-suywOEi5QrSUxBWf0j0j | Will Hollow Knight: Silksong be released in 2024? | yes if release date is within 2024
no if in 2023 or after 2024 | 2023-06-20T20:26:30 | 2024-12-31T08:59:00 | 2024-12-31T21:48:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g2JY2WubgmVKW4BP8wL5 | Will Abrams tanks be deployed in combat in Ukraine by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-20T16:21:01 | 2023-12-31T14:06:46 | 2023-12-31T14:06:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YhLqmwFqqcADsAY0acJJ | Chandrayaan 3 to successfully land a rover on the Moon in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-20T16:01:00 | 2023-08-23T09:35:29 | 2023-08-23T09:35:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hbwLg1Q6XGJ5L1RBOYAs | BJP to win the 2024 Elections with a majority? | Resolves YES if Bharatiya Janata Party wins the 2024 Indian general elections with a clear majority. Seats won by alliance parties will not be counted. | 2023-06-20T15:56:41 | 2024-05-30T23:59:00 | 2024-06-05T13:07:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n02I19Kq73GHtoRhcpjE | Will the Bank of England base rate be 4% or lower anytime in 2024? | [markets][markets](https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-base-rate-b41ff89ae1f2) | 2023-06-20T13:09:04 | 2024-12-19T05:56:32 | 2024-12-19T05:56:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AHZ4oZCRI0a4N1tr3b9L | Will Joe Rogan host a debate between Robert F. Kennedy Jr and another person by the end of 2023? | [tweet] | 2023-06-20T09:40:39 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-12T05:16:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lWojxiYMjgmOZOMVVvJu | Will the OceanGate Expedition submersible be found within 1 month? | https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/19/us/titanic-missing-sub-tourist-tour
Resolves yes if the submersible is found within 1 month. (In any state broken/whole, and does not need to be recovered, just located)
[link preview] | 2023-06-20T05:48:26 | 2023-06-22T14:36:01 | 2023-06-22T14:36:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tX9tntfJqbcbRbR9twfN | Will Novak Djokovic win Men's Singles at Wimbledon? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-20T05:37:31 | 2023-07-16T14:06:27 | 2023-07-16T14:06:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UeaVV8JpBfj1cb6ENhxb | Will the Titan Submersible be rescued with passengers still alive before their 96 hours of oxygen is depleted? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-06-20T05:36:51 | 2023-06-22T06:00:00 | 2023-06-22T06:30:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2lQFHfKqDFupWUXFzRP0 | Will the passengers in the missing Titanic tourist submersible be safely rescued by this week? | Latest Update (as of June 22) 🚨🌊
"The submersible, which is part of an OceanGate Expeditions tour that offers passengers a once-in-a-lifetime experience to explore the Titanic wreckage, went missing on Sunday after losing contact with the research vessel Polar Prince.
On a website page for the missing vessel, Titan... | 2023-06-20T05:00:49 | 2023-06-22T12:33:21 | 2023-06-22T12:33:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wbMsMhTfSgayv9idzVHW | Will the at least one person onboard the missing Oceangate submersible be found alive? | Incident: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65934887
[link preview] | 2023-06-20T04:04:44 | 2023-06-22T12:55:24 | 2023-06-22T12:55:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-APCx1MetLPcfwdUre8xF | Will 75% of the "gone dark" subreddits have returned by Thursday 22nd June? | As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content.
Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past 8 days, either beca... | 2023-06-20T00:33:06 | 2023-06-22T14:00:00 | 2023-06-22T14:16:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f3M3czQBZQykdFEecOmR | Will Red Bull's 2023 RB19 be the most dominant F1 car of all time? | The McLaren-Honda MP4/4 won 94% (15 out of 16) of the races in the 1988 season, a record which still stands today. But so far, the Red Bull RB19 has won all 8 races in 2023. Can they top the almighty MP4/4? This would require not losing more than one race this year. | 2023-06-20T00:14:17 | 2023-11-26T07:48:37 | 2023-11-26T07:48:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ka2B78MOJX7xYiaW9APl | Will Max Verstappen's 2023 season be the most dominant F1 season of all time? | Measured by percent of races won in a season.
Last year, Max had the 4th most dominant driver season ever, and the most number of wins ever in a season. Can he take the crown this year? If there are 22 races as currently planned, this would require 17 wins.
Alberto Ascari, 1952, 6 of 8 (75%)
Michael Schumacher, 2004... | 2023-06-20T00:03:11 | 2023-11-20T17:45:27 | 2023-11-20T17:45:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e9nZwSYu8yYY1xwIdjFi | Will RFK Jr. break his Google Trends record by end of July? | Searches for "Robert F. Kennedy, Jr." (Democratic anti-vaxxer opponent to Joe Biden who Manifold thinks has a 4% chance of being nominated...we'll see) have peaked on April 6, 2023, according to Google Trends. Will the record be broken in June or July?
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict bet... | 2023-06-19T21:06:40 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T00:00:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LcTYGScuULbbLHDEWY7C | Will Oppenheimer be rated at least 8.5 in IMDB at the end of 2023? | https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15398776
Related: https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-oppenheimer-be-rated-at-least-bc7eafa05269 | 2023-06-19T20:19:56 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:07:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9lho6CfECy94z0iExMsf | Will Killers of the Flower Moon be rated at least 8.0 in IMDB at the end of 2023? | https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002 | 2023-06-19T20:16:24 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:05:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5XCezzYPkCahXsGAyuk2 | Will the OceanGate Expedition submersible be found within 1 week? | https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/19/us/titanic-missing-sub-tourist-tour
Resolves yes if the submersible is found within 1 week. (In any state broken/whole, and does not need to be recovered, just located)
[link preview] | 2023-06-19T19:46:54 | 2023-06-22T14:35:49 | 2023-06-22T14:35:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TZd9sd2AzYfetKgRLCMX | Will the US bring back defector visas to compete with China? | Through legislation by the end of the 118th congress. Question inspired by Palmer Lucky interview https://open.spotify.com/episode/0hGZMFqNcIDVYiflguKwKZ?si=kPzuBAqmTG-ZQo0nAI1oCg&t=2720&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A7wHYcVRmMP6rWQL9lVQJlL
[link preview] | 2023-06-19T17:33:16 | 2025-01-06T20:59:00 | 2025-01-19T12:00:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uXdRymwCT4brt8mfKrP2 | Will billionaire Hamish Harding be found alive? | Resolves on retrieval of submersible or 2 weeks
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65953872
[link preview] | 2023-06-19T14:33:31 | 2023-06-22T15:38:51 | 2023-06-22T15:38:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RVDk6I1sJL3LX32lnhYu | Will Max Verstappen win all remaining Formula 1 Grand Prix in 2023? | He's been on a roll. But surely he won't win every race! Right? | 2023-06-19T11:48:52 | 2023-09-17T07:42:25 | 2023-09-17T07:42:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QLdcYfes6w4VSddzc5Lc | Will the crew and passengers of the Titanic explorer be found safely by the end of the week? | A submarine containing tourists exploring the wreck of the Titanic has gone missing and there is currently a search underway:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/19/titanic-tourist-submarine-missing-north-atlantic
Will the submarine be located with everyone on board alive (or will everyone who was on board b... | 2023-06-19T10:24:46 | 2023-06-23T00:35:11 | 2023-06-23T00:35:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5oz3By51s0rqy81dNghJ | Will someone with a fields medal make a Manifold market by end of 2024? | Has to have happened after market creation. | 2023-06-19T10:16:51 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T16:58:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sj3ncH5dk93F88LWM0Ps | Will a replicating AI take over the Replit cloud by EOY 24? | As per their CEO Amjad Masad here (https://twitter.com/amasad/status/1670473919504220160): "There is a non-zero chance BabyAGI will self-replicate inside Replit and take over our cloud. If it happens it happens."
This market resolves to YES if, by 1 Jan 2025, we learn that some AI program self-replicated inside Replit... | 2023-06-19T08:53:50 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:33:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-60XUnIZcQLl0wSTA7sXP | Will Twitter be forced into involuntary bankruptcy proceedings by the end of 2023? | If a company has more than 12 creditors, any 3 of them can join together to put the company into involuntary bankruptcy proceedings. Twitter certainly meets the minimum requirement and they also haven't been paying a lot of bills. This includes any rent on its offices, fees to arbitration company dealing with ex-employ... | 2023-06-19T07:48:47 | 2023-12-31T14:05:25 | 2023-12-31T14:05:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IiYcDyn7FM0BwggQZ88f | Will at least 50 delegates at the 2024 Democratic National Convention vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? | The Democratic National Convention is the Democratic Party's presidential nominating convention. If at least 50 of the voting delegates at the convention vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be the Democratic Party's nominee for president, this market will resolve to YES. If 49 or fewer delegates at the convention vote fo... | 2023-06-19T07:05:43 | 2024-08-22T23:33:26 | 2024-08-22T23:33:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tai2P5orwtskqbOwFz4f | Will a single independent candidate (barring Trump) get more than 5% of the pop vote in the 2024 US Pres election? | If trump runs as independepentant and gets more than 5% of vote while no other independent does then resolves to NO. | 2023-06-19T05:38:12 | 2024-11-12T20:40:38 | 2024-11-12T20:40:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZzhOSrW7QJD8Xx1ZsusF | Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 1/1/2024 be 4.5% or higher? | Using the closing price on Jan 1st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 4.5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
[link preview] | 2023-06-19T05:00:56 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:19:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eSO9sSqb9m37RD9F8ofL | Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $200 by Oct 31? | Last price: 2023-10-31 $170.77
(will try to update major moves or every Friday after Nasdaq close)
Resolves YES if AAPL trades >= $200 during any regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) up to October 31, 2023, and NO if that hasn't happened by then.
Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high price, adjusted ... | 2023-06-19T04:24:00 | 2023-10-31T18:54:23 | 2023-10-31T18:54:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bZg6AZi8RcesSU5eoU4B | Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by June 30th 2024? | BlackRock, a leading player in the asset management industry, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 15, 2023, for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) known as the "iShares Bitcoin Trust"1. Despite the recent regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, ... | 2023-06-19T03:43:51 | 2024-01-10T16:12:53 | 2024-01-10T16:12:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sUw6S4HtGQKZOYt37ONj | Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by December 31st 2023? | BlackRock, a leading player in the asset management industry, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 15, 2023, for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) known as the "iShares Bitcoin Trust"1. Despite the recent regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, ... | 2023-06-19T03:40:51 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2023-12-31T05:05:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XlDqzx3goBWsmGUurvO3 | Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by September 30th 2023? | BlackRock, a leading player in the asset management industry, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 15, 2023, for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) known as the "iShares Bitcoin Trust"1. Despite the recent regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, ... | 2023-06-19T03:38:20 | 2023-09-30T06:59:00 | 2023-10-01T00:05:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SvY92Xx00qPXWQgeVoqg | Will any of {Jason Tatum, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander} win the NBA MVP 2024? | Resolves YES if any player of the group {Jason Tatum, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander} wins the regular season MVP of the NBA 2024. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2023-06-19T02:10:48 | 2024-05-08T17:19:53 | 2024-05-08T17:19:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I5chRXxP92x8ZJt5Gl5Q | Will total crypto market cap be above $1.1T on august 20th, according to coinmarketcap? | At some random time on august 20th I will look up the number on coinmarketcap.com , and resolve the market accordingly. #Crypto
| 2023-06-18T16:07:01 | 2023-08-21T03:00:09 | 2023-08-21T03:00:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K00yXZxqUa35Z8KIK2fC | Will climate change be discussed in all official 2024 U.S. Presidential debates? | Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if climate change is discussed in all official 2024 U.S. Presidential debates, as confirmed by the official transcripts of the debates. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. | 2023-06-18T15:21:43 | 2024-11-29T18:59:00 | 2024-12-02T16:14:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mX5n1zChEBxQUvOk7fBu | Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if Kamala Harris is the Democratic Nominee for the 2024 United States Presidential Election, as confirmed by official Democratic Party announcements or reputable news sources. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. | 2023-06-18T15:17:08 | 2024-08-29T10:27:25 | 2024-08-29T10:27:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.