id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-GZ8a21CGiYs22AGLgOI2 | Will Henry Kissinger die by the end of 2023? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T09:48:26 | 2023-11-30T10:43:28 | 2023-11-30T10:43:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LO2rKR0HTvwE1fwcRLU7 | Will Henry Kissinger die by the end of September? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T09:47:40 | 2023-09-30T23:59:00 | 2023-10-04T12:35:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dTfVwWM66nMBtFLefcvB | Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T09:37:12 | 2023-07-31T15:00:00 | 2023-08-01T11:31:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hyz8BW8ZIHA2xYx9FJHB | Will Destiny talk to Jidion in June? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T09:22:38 | 2023-07-01T19:32:00 | 2023-07-01T19:32:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Iu6CsVzrmu9gCNkPmX14 | Will Destiny talk to Sneako in June? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T09:20:40 | 2023-07-01T19:32:22 | 2023-07-01T19:32:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n0YJSpqO5T8R9aj8VBgA | Will Destiny talk to LowTierGod in June? | [markets] | 2023-06-03T09:19:46 | 2023-06-12T18:04:31 | 2023-06-12T18:04:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nzDaStUo8l7JOE2zxMVy | Who will score first in the UEFA Champions League finals? | YES: Manchester City
NO: Inter Milan | 2023-06-03T06:33:20 | 2023-06-10T19:44:13 | 2023-06-10T19:44:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n2nxULWSvq5QoSjaoUai | Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2024? | If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2024, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.
Only 6 months remain, will it all end? | 2023-06-03T06:22:50 | 2023-12-31T22:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:11:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BhKYpwF3i3HQR8oBGrkP | Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025? | If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2025, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES. | 2023-06-03T03:17:40 | 2024-12-31T22:59:00 | 2025-01-01T04:55:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6vh2dtnUkBOP2C9V0nZ2 | (200M Subsidy!) Will a prompt be discovered that allows GPT4 to draw or win more than 70% of the time in tic tac toe? | Currently, seems like gpt4 is awful at tic tac toe. I can't get it to play sensibly at all. It won't strategize even one step ahead. Resolves YES if there is a prompt that allows it to win or draw more than 70% of the time against humans that are not purposefully trying to lose.
A "prompt" should be like this.
You ca... | 2023-06-03T01:08:08 | 2023-06-04T03:37:29 | 2023-06-04T03:37:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ja3qjPInUcXJRdtvUFHa | Will 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' (2023) gross more than $1B worldwide before 2024? | Will resolve based on the Box Office Mojo reported numbers. Will resolve YES if it reaches $1 Billion worldwide, or NO if it hasn't reached $1 Billion worldwide in the Box Office Mojo total by Jan 1, 2024.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt9362722/ | 2023-06-03T00:00:32 | 2024-01-01T03:20:24 | 2024-01-01T03:20:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4ap5vxi2KBsmCLhHBKv4 | Will Oppenheimer gross more than $600 million within the first six months of its release? | Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-oppenheimer-gross-more-than-80) | 2023-06-02T22:36:15 | 2023-08-14T22:29:50 | 2023-08-14T22:29:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dWv80WEnmPYfSE0wcEz0 | Will Amazon offer cellphone services as part of Prime membership in the US by the end of Sep 2nd, 2023? | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/amazon-talking-with-verizon-dish-t-mobile-to-offer-mobile-with-prime | 2023-06-02T22:16:09 | 2023-09-03T00:08:46 | 2023-09-03T00:08:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m9HIXZqICrb1dSkTZRaN | Will Ron DeSantis suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast? | In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is sc... | 2023-06-02T18:57:09 | 2024-01-15T15:47:53 | 2024-01-15T15:47:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O47GUuBJbbpUiTy1hKs8 | Will bitcoin close above $26,819 on JULY 1, 2023? | Close for June 1 was $26,819
Will it go up or down by July? | 2023-06-02T18:51:09 | 2023-07-01T10:33:05 | 2023-07-01T10:33:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oa96miEANsAEi2CO4NvA | Will Amazon begin to accept Bitcoin as payment by the end of 2024? | this is a duplicate of the "2023" market because 2023 seems too soon.
Bitcoin prices surged following speculation that Amazon might begin to allow customers use cryptocurrencies to pay for their orders in the future. The rumors had emerged after the company published a job post for “Digital Currency and Blockchain Pr... | 2023-06-02T18:37:03 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:29:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ro79rTRUwTzGipROhK9r | Will Putin leave Russia again during 2023? | Resolves YES if video evidence that Putin attended a meeting or event in non-Russian controlled territory by the end of 2023. | 2023-06-02T13:41:57 | 2023-10-12T01:58:27 | 2023-10-12T01:58:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-J7SAul9BM3H5BnFNyvc5 | Will the 15th annual BRICS meeting result in the launch of a new currency standard? | Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are meeting in South Africa in August 2023, with commentators hinting they will announce a new currency standard to compete with the US dollar and Euro in terms of internation trade.
More at https://unherd.com/thepost/a-new-brics-currency-is-a-threat-to-the-west/
... | 2023-06-02T13:08:05 | 2023-08-31T15:59:00 | 2023-09-01T15:22:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WMBuW7l7EpSWhZaZ5sQ7 | By the end of 2023, will there be a usable AI assistant that interfaces with keyboard and mouse? | (https://manifold.markets/embed/vluzko/shortterm-ai-5-by-the-end-of-june-2?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)This market is a slightly longer version of the market above.
It does not need to only use keyboard and mouse, but that should be a substantial part of its interaction
Not necessarily a physical keyboard and mouse.
Usab... | 2023-06-02T12:45:08 | 2023-12-31T23:22:22 | 2023-12-31T23:22:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KdPN4oypx1laJyQlKIMD | Will there be a version of GPT4 with a context window of 100k tokens this year? | According to the claim in this reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/13xbd9n/1_million_tokens_context_window_is_coming_this/
"Longer context windows — Context windows as high as 1 million tokens are plausible in the near future."
How plausible is this?
This market resolves YES if a version of GPT... | 2023-06-02T12:11:02 | 2023-11-06T18:33:02 | 2023-11-06T18:33:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ld9cL1DyOSLhQnHz0mxw | Will there be a version of GPT4 with a context window of 1 million tokens this year? | According to the claim in this reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/13xbd9n/1_million_tokens_context_window_is_coming_this/
"Longer context windows — Context windows as high as 1 million tokens are plausible in the near future."
How plausible is this?
This market resolves YES if a version of GPT... | 2023-06-02T12:10:02 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T18:46:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NgqAM5idPceviGGWFDZh | Will any player other than Magnus Carlsen be rated above 2800 (classical chess, live rating) now till the end of 2023? | Resolves yes if any player other than Magnus Carlsen is rated above 2800 in classical according to this list at any point from now till the end of 2023:
https://2700chess.com/
[link preview] | 2023-06-02T08:27:05 | 2023-10-26T18:31:21 | 2023-10-26T18:31:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zCdCOf9i2W8vyYG6jjH1 | Will Robert F Kennedy double his Twitter Following to 2.6 Million by end of August? | https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr is Currently at 1.3M twitter followers.
On September 1st, will his Twitter following surpass 2.6M followers? e.g. 2,600,001 followers | 2023-06-02T06:39:27 | 2023-08-31T21:47:12 | 2023-08-31T21:47:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8YtBystgtg2JUaeyj8lZ | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 679k subscribers in June? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-06-02T05:07:02 | 2023-07-01T19:36:33 | 2023-07-01T19:36:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xR8AbySfD31gV8Xvrja5 | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 678k subscribers in June? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-06-02T05:03:50 | 2023-06-30T02:52:11 | 2023-06-30T02:52:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ujGz3vlgveEu42R8VWZw | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 677k subscribers in June? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-06-02T05:03:26 | 2023-06-30T02:52:30 | 2023-06-30T02:52:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SXF4LtESJ0Mdbh5gcl4J | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 676k subscribers in June? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-06-02T05:02:56 | 2023-06-27T09:59:01 | 2023-06-27T09:59:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-751CR0unYrMDGSuuOE5L | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 675k subscribers in June? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-06-02T05:02:25 | 2023-06-27T13:59:20 | 2023-06-27T13:59:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QAqY8xFxIep05iodAk60 | Will bitcoin hit $90k before 2031-09-27? | Resolves YES if the price of bitcoin hits 90,000 USD before the close date. To be resolved by CoinMarketCap price, or whatever other suitable source I can find if that site shuts down. | 2023-06-01T23:11:21 | 2024-11-13T06:38:12 | 2024-11-13T06:38:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NDISsq3ndCgbL8vrWPi8 | Will 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' win any Oscars at the 96th Academy Awards? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Across_the_Spider-Verse
If it wins at least one Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise NO.
Other 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' markets: https://manifold.markets/group/spiderman-across-the-spiderverse | 2023-06-01T21:06:35 | 2024-03-10T19:54:36 | 2024-03-10T19:54:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c7ERe7NTgR3cXXwri6NY | Will Destiny finish Diablo IV by June 30th? | The game is considered finished once he beats the final boss.
[markets] | 2023-06-01T16:47:46 | 2023-06-19T20:09:04 | 2023-06-19T20:09:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e64CoqIURNNrqFuUXlxc | Will Destiny finish Diablo IV by June 21st? | The game is considered finished once he beats the final boss.
[markets] | 2023-06-01T16:46:59 | 2023-06-19T20:08:52 | 2023-06-19T20:08:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Mh07D8OgYRZh4HPjm66 | Will Destiny finish Diablo IV by June 14th? | The game is considered finished once he beats the final boss.
[markets] | 2023-06-01T16:45:57 | 2023-06-15T06:35:12 | 2023-06-15T06:35:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CWLsJiOh2KxAfUfeJuX4 | Will Destiny finish Diablo IV by June 7th? | The game is considered finished once he beats the final boss.
[markets] | 2023-06-01T16:44:24 | 2023-06-08T06:16:16 | 2023-06-08T06:16:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tSWlNsswxi2IOBIKQ8SM | Will the U.S. create a new federal agency to regulate AI by the end of 2024? | This option for regulation of artificial intelligence has been suggested by various lawmakers, as well as Sam Altman.
To count, the organization will have to have regulation of artificial intelligence as a major portion of its mission/mandate, but it doesn't have to be literally the name of the agency. Since this dete... | 2023-06-01T07:47:21 | 2025-01-02T04:55:28 | 2025-01-02T04:55:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Et1aXEmPEsATCweNCWir | Will Vladimir Putin attend BRICS summit in South Africa in August? | Resolves YES if Vladimir Putin is at BRICS summit in South Africa in August 2023. He must be there in person, not by video conference.
* Resolves NO if Vladimir Putin is not there in person;
* Resolves NO if summit is canceled;
* Resolves NO if the the summit is moved from August 2023 to some other month of 202... | 2023-06-01T04:11:48 | 2023-09-02T13:59:00 | 2023-09-02T14:01:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oYRWylU1Fx0mZtAygnju | Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of September 2023? | Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happene... | 2023-06-01T03:40:55 | 2023-10-01T00:05:11 | 2023-10-01T00:05:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jucy6nsVzkuHIe8QAeDq | Will there be a second TIME cover article mentioning MIRI in 2023? | https://time.com/6283609/artificial-intelligence-race-existential-threat/ is both
a cover article and mentions Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
Will there be another one?
[link preview] | 2023-05-31T23:46:16 | 2023-12-31T12:59:00 | 2024-01-03T08:18:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gW3NPsaFUQgY0Hm15tJb | Will r/chess ban r/AnarchyChess comments by the end of 2023? | r/chessbeginners recently banned all r/AnarchyChess related comments/posts, such as en passant, brick the pipi, google x
Will r/chess ban these comments by 2023?
Resolves YES if at least one common phrase from r/AnarchyChess becomes bannable (and the rules are changed on r/chess to ban it; it was not already bannable... | 2023-05-31T20:01:05 | 2024-01-01T00:39:21 | 2024-01-01T00:39:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oHozMASlGIEHdsczxbS8 | Will Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. win the Democratic Primary and be a serious contender for President of the United States? | https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/
[link preview] | 2023-05-31T19:15:07 | 2023-10-09T09:58:37 | 2023-10-09T09:58:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b31F8Zh3Bzs79U4x16U1 | Will S&P 500 increase in June 2023? | The S&P closed at 4076.60 in January, 3970.15 in February, 4109.31 in March, 4169.48 in April, and 4179.83 in May. Will it increase from open on 2023-06-01 (4183.03) to close on 2023-06-30 (4450.38)?
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices | 2023-05-31T16:22:56 | 2023-06-30T14:01:42 | 2023-06-30T14:01:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EI0wp5Eydou8Bk7UbZ1x | Will Destiny and Dan have an episode of their Podcast by the end of June? | [markets] | 2023-05-31T16:02:02 | 2023-07-01T19:36:47 | 2023-07-01T19:36:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WWnY2PgRRYxvhocWBRbJ | Will Reddit go through with its plan to charge third party apps large amounts of money for API access? | Today Reddit contacted the owners of Apollo and other third party Reddit apps notifying that API access will cost $12,000 per 50 million requests, which would amount to $20 million per year for Apollo.
This is currently planned to go into effect on July 1st. This market will resolve YES if Reddit charges this rate on... | 2023-05-31T15:53:01 | 2023-06-30T21:59:00 | 2023-07-11T15:13:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tP07dvHoAR2DuAN7TrdI | Leo Messi returns to Barca in 2023? | yes if he signs contract as a player with Barca. | 2023-05-31T14:02:01 | 2023-11-16T05:07:36 | 2023-11-16T05:07:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-upoDRNQnsrUoJYCPZIo7 | Will 5 or more riders wear the yellow jersey in the 2023 Tour de France? | The rider must actually wear the jersey, either in the award ceremony at the end of a stage or in the race the next day.
The last time 5 riders wore the yellow jersey was 2020, and before that 2013. Most other years in that time span have seen 4 riders wear the yellow jersey. | 2023-05-31T11:44:58 | 2023-07-23T10:50:37 | 2023-07-23T10:50:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jGTg7vWCq0bDSyC362bP | Will Destiny appear on The Crucible before the end of June? | Will resolve to YES if Destiny is involved in an appearance, conversation, or debate that appears on The Crucible, after the start of this proposition (May 31, 2023, 11:54AM EST) and before July 1st 2023, 12:00AM EST in which Destiny speaks more than 5 words.
The Crucible is a debate show hosted primarily by Andrew W... | 2023-05-31T09:54:31 | 2023-06-30T22:00:00 | 2023-07-01T04:01:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-STsLXY6al3EUlDSz46zg | Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024? | Resolves true if there is credible reporting (from media, Twitter, etc.) that an AI system such as GPT4 has taken concrete steps (either proactively or reactively) to resist attempts to shut itself down or to resiste attempts to curtail its activities.
These steps cannot have been explicitly programmed or prompted fo... | 2023-05-31T03:05:23 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T03:55:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cUuTkgbO5DPr5Py4zibk | June 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000? | If in June 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | 2023-05-30T16:04:10 | 2023-06-21T13:51:23 | 2023-06-21T13:51:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ziwD0OCffNhgGfovyATn | Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI Risk by Aug 31, 2023? | Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Statement on AI Risk from the Center for AI Safety or the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of August 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Tu... | 2023-05-30T16:01:06 | 2023-09-01T21:59:00 | 2023-09-07T02:14:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8hJ2G1pyvAPUZAJWLndp | Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 1st than it closed on May 31th? | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day. | 2023-05-30T14:14:38 | 2023-06-01T11:00:00 | 2023-06-01T14:09:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-F4FXxln8gykXlqqIo5Xk | Will either Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft or Amazon add Bitcoin to their balance sheets before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-30T13:09:52 | 2024-12-12T21:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:30:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kCDtb2PyAF5SXdPxbZRY | Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. The market will resolve to N/A if the series ends in a 4 game sweep.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544850
[link preview... | 2023-05-30T10:03:59 | 2023-06-12T20:01:22 | 2023-06-12T20:02:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-E74JGx67k3zoxUFenwZn | Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544849
[link preview]Additional markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-30T10:02:05 | 2023-06-09T20:08:16 | 2023-06-09T20:09:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GAZGZ8VVD9f5XR8VpABA | Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544848
[link preview]Additional markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-30T10:00:57 | 2023-06-07T20:03:31 | 2023-06-07T20:03:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qOKlby2Tmr9hKnb68Zqt | Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544847
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-30T09:59:14 | 2023-06-04T20:30:00 | 2023-06-05T05:42:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ybPZbTBfrqe9C4SgxsSD | Will Ben Shapiro comment on Dune 2 being "woke"? | He has previously approved of Dune 1, presumably because he didn't find any "woke agenda" in it, which isn't usually the case when he reviews movies.
The market resolves as "Yes" if he or any other Daily Wire member points out their perceived "wokeness" of the film. Mentioning "Transing the kids", "pushing a feminist... | 2023-05-30T06:45:15 | 2024-03-04T16:27:16 | 2024-03-04T16:27:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zxUfEJZOEYuDV89YM422 | Will the Ukrainian counteroffensive have been known to begun before next week (June 5)? | Ukraine has been prepping a counteroffensive for weeks and claim the
offensive is happening "soon", potentially within a few days.
This question asks - Will the Ukrainian counteroffensive have been known to begun before next week (June 5)?
I will rely on my subjective judgement to evaluate this market - will I thin... | 2023-05-30T01:36:12 | 2023-06-04T21:59:00 | 2023-06-07T05:44:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HbYEAZf5LGMzLJZbxCce | Will the winner of the 2023 Tour de France GC race also win the Polka Dot (Mountain Points) Jersey? | This has happened the last 3 TdF and 12 times overall. | 2023-05-29T21:47:05 | 2023-07-22T21:59:00 | 2023-07-23T10:42:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VcBUQ2J2res8KhYeVckS | Will the Denver Nuggets win Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat? | Game will take place in Denver, CO. If either team wins in 4 games, resolves to N/A. | 2023-05-29T20:11:29 | 2023-06-12T20:02:06 | 2023-06-12T20:02:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RNcM5NZjeRxZTRvJTrmv | Will the Denver Nuggets win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat? | Game will take place in Miami, FL. | 2023-05-29T20:11:03 | 2023-06-09T20:10:48 | 2023-06-09T20:10:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-he0YRqQsTX4buLoBvHOI | Will the Denver Nuggets win Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat? | Game will take place in Miami, FL. | 2023-05-29T20:10:27 | 2023-06-07T20:18:44 | 2023-06-07T20:18:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VRjuGH2n6abm4jwT821f | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat? | Series long bet. | 2023-05-29T20:08:33 | 2023-06-12T20:04:32 | 2023-06-12T20:04:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aNlsrzvidkGcveSdz1EY | Will Noam Chomsky survive 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-29T19:52:59 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:58:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dDHlIMAykC4ng4tcXghP | Will Ko Wen-je come second in Taiwan's 2024 presidential election? | Ko Wen-je is the TPP candidate. TPP is not one of the two large parties (KMT and DPP) that have dominated Taiwanese politics since democratisation. | 2023-05-29T17:11:51 | 2024-01-13T05:30:50 | 2024-01-13T05:30:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IxUDqfhbFSXKKi0dnaxZ | Will Destiny talk to Mizkif by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-05-29T12:47:02 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T11:31:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pJNVhz7AZBGrfY5eAY9r | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17280/frontier-ai-lab-in-china/
As of April 2023, the largest model currently known is GPT-4 and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 is estimated by Epoch to have been trained with 2.1E+25 FLOPs.
The largest Chinese-made model is GLM-... | 2023-05-29T12:41:51 | 2024-11-03T02:44:33 | 2024-11-03T02:44:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MxdPAd4I4prt9H9UWuIT | Will Destiny talk to Zherka by the end of June? | [markets] | 2023-05-29T12:28:01 | 2023-07-01T19:37:06 | 2023-07-01T19:37:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-shwOhB272AmVmyOAEwmh | Will Destiny talk to Adam22 again by the end of July? | [markets] | 2023-05-29T12:05:55 | 2023-06-27T20:40:26 | 2023-06-27T20:40:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uDAQEJVB5EYKqp80dGHt | Will the Denver Nuggets Win Game 1 of the NBA Finals | Will the Nuggets get the Dub in game 1 this week ? | 2023-05-29T10:13:43 | 2023-06-01T19:28:24 | 2023-06-01T19:43:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0J5bEXiBxERKZsV5PfQL | Will North Korea successfully launch a satellite in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-29T10:09:21 | 2023-11-22T06:26:25 | 2023-11-22T06:26:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TqYn24yPSNHi7YaiwAwU | Will Oppenheimer and Barbie perform historically well at the domestic box office on opening weekend? | Specifically, will Barbie and Oppenheimer break the current pareto frontier for the top 2 movies weekend domestic gross sales on their opening weekend?
The current pareto frontier is depicted here:
[image]And the data presented in a table:
[image]For example, if both movies open with a box office equivalent to The ... | 2023-05-29T07:53:38 | 2023-07-24T12:00:00 | 2023-07-24T15:18:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0IzGDJX2Ifbzsm4t3tiU | Will Yann LeCun change his mind about AI risk before 2025? | Geoffrey Hinton used to think AI risk wasn't that big of a deal, but then changed his mind. Yoshia Bengio recently wrote "How Rogue AIs may Arise". But Yann LeCun famously is skeptical and regularly dunks on AI risk arguments via his Twitter.
This question asks - Will Yann LeCun change his mind about AI risk before 2... | 2023-05-29T06:38:57 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T18:26:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-udMMbaf4SzLnxzb3VS7j | Will the S&P 500 close at an all time high in 2023? | The all time high close was 4793.06 on December 29 2021 | 2023-05-29T04:59:21 | 2023-12-29T13:08:44 | 2023-12-29T13:08:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ixF0HNpmzdQSHGHVFzNc | Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-29T04:51:12 | 2023-08-30T06:25:52 | 2023-08-30T06:25:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FMqVhR4c0Z940hcmaQLi | Will Joe Biden complete his term as president? | I'm curious to see if he will complete his term [before it ends](https://countdownuntiljoebidenisoutofoffice.weebly.com/#/)
Resolves no for any reason such as him dying/assassination/impeachment/resignation/US gets overthriwn in a coup/alien invasion/end of world/etc. Resolves yes if he makes it by the time the clock ... | 2023-05-28T23:35:25 | 2025-01-20T11:50:15 | 2025-01-20T14:32:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3kJGu9FdVTAA8KttcDLK | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before it reaches $20,000? | If Bitcoin reaches $40,000 first, this market resolves yes. If Bitcoin reaches $20,000 first, this market resolves as no. | 2023-05-28T22:16:05 | 2023-12-03T14:37:48 | 2023-12-03T14:37:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n2M3laDwNtlYT4A2ywB6 | Will Jimmy Carter outlive his wife? | resolves as expected | 2023-05-28T21:13:04 | 2023-11-19T12:56:58 | 2023-11-19T12:56:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Ajfin5aTSJB3FS9jcjz | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Austrian Grand Prix? | The race will take place on July 2, 2023. | 2023-05-28T20:46:50 | 2023-07-02T10:31:52 | 2023-07-02T10:31:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nZCkh9M2a9Gdn3QSlstp | Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on June 18, 2023. | 2023-05-28T20:45:13 | 2023-06-18T12:27:27 | 2023-06-18T12:27:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0t4K506P2ImSwZHuu9P1 | Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on June 18, 2023. | 2023-05-28T20:45:10 | 2023-06-18T12:43:56 | 2023-06-18T12:43:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UtsDlZJd1w3tSehsHxqF | Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix? | A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on June 18, 2023. | 2023-05-28T20:45:04 | 2023-06-18T13:07:36 | 2023-06-18T13:07:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fhSsX1ax9DqO4hAl7vFQ | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix? | The race will take place on June 18, 2023. | 2023-05-28T20:44:58 | 2023-06-18T12:43:20 | 2023-06-18T12:43:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RPgkIJt3lVNyN1bkcJXc | FA cup final: Manchester United vs Manchester City | YES: Manchester United
NO: Manchester City
It's the first time the FA cup final is a Manchester derby. Manchester City won the Premier League, and are in the Champions League final, so a treble is on the table for them. Manchester United finished third, and won the Carabao cup. | 2023-05-28T17:46:21 | 2023-06-03T09:38:58 | 2023-06-03T09:38:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-F28XDipeDMEFGYZF5scP | Will the most sold car model in 2023 be an electric vehicle? | In 2022 the Toyota corolla was the most sold car model in the world | 2023-05-28T00:47:16 | 2024-01-30T02:36:51 | 2024-01-30T02:36:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hz76wuiXEMpFfuarOvvR | Will Destiny do another Change My Mind event by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-27T23:44:33 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-12T05:17:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LMWoCHr3e0EuRypf3Mfb | Will the government of any country be dissolved or overthrown before July 1? | I am going to run this market every month from now on.
The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sou... | 2023-05-27T19:58:48 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-07-01T01:48:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-omiBidK3Aq8sKJ79EQ0s | Will Trump use Twitter in any way by Fourth of July? | Resolves YES if Trump appears using Twitter by tweeting or joining a space using his original account. Using his campaign's account does not count. | 2023-05-27T13:50:14 | 2023-07-04T20:59:00 | 2023-07-04T21:01:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DI9nyNdCQ2f0BX92qjoE | Will Donald Trump join a Twitter Space by the end of 2023? | (https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-donald-trump-join-a-twitter-sp) | 2023-05-27T11:50:12 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:37:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-54SbrVpu4i5b6LrsG02Q | Will Trump or Biden take part in a Twitter/X Space as part of their campaign? | Similar to what Desantis did. Any speaking role in any Space will count. | 2023-05-27T05:18:36 | 2024-08-12T23:28:06 | 2024-08-12T23:28:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m2811EHLTsoM5OhH0RK2 | Will shoe0nhead talk to Destiny in 2023? | On his stream, her stream, or any other content format? Audio or video. Not counting anything private or text tweets. | 2023-05-26T15:22:07 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-03T06:32:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GSSPUdDyfc1jVWwoqAq6 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 for at least 1 full day before 2025? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17202/nvidia-stock-below-250-before-31-dec-2024/
The closing stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) on 25th of May 2023 was 379.80 USD.
This is a significant increase from the lows in October 2022 of $108.13. Furthermore PE and sales multiples are historically very high.... | 2023-05-26T13:55:00 | 2024-12-30T10:00:00 | 2025-01-01T04:19:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zDIld8DQ5b2ogRpuvS9R | Will Henry Kissinger be alive on his 101st Birthday? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-26T13:32:01 | 2023-11-29T20:51:31 | 2023-11-29T20:51:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PtuzXMReveqyA51RP1OC | Will Neuralink begin recruitment for the clinical trial of its brain implants by the end of Jul 15, 2023? | Note: The patient registry available on Neuralink's official website (as available onJun 20) will not count for a YES resolution since that registration is not recruitment/enrollment for their clinical trial.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-neuralink-begin-recruitment-fo) | 2023-05-26T11:01:49 | 2023-07-16T01:12:02 | 2023-07-16T01:12:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KiSqcGq8x12cKiokVGQs | Will any Chatbot beat GPT-4 by July 1, 2024? | The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (https://chat.lmsys.org/?arena) lists GPT-4 in the number 1 spot with an ELO of 1225.
In the number 2 spot is Claude with an ELO 1195
Will any chatbot replace GPT-4 in the number one spot before July 1, 2024?
Fine print:
If https://chat.lmsys.org/?arena ceases to function, the question... | 2023-05-26T10:31:26 | 2024-03-26T16:44:52 | 2024-03-26T16:44:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WNidf9Yp9c0Rk5SgzMh3 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17260/chatgpt-in-europe-on-june-30-2024/
From Reuters on May 24, 2023, "OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union."
The EU AI Act "... | 2023-05-26T08:07:49 | 2024-06-30T12:00:00 | 2024-07-06T09:06:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4rA8jgmNnhhrKptvOL6S | Will any AI cause an international incident before August 2024? | Will resolve YES if AI instigates or is directly involved in a scandal, conflict, or other such issue affecting relations between world actors (governments, leaders, economies, organizations etc.). No matter how big, it must have repercussions beyond a single nation.
Some examples for YES:
Deepfakes spark an argument... | 2023-05-26T03:04:52 | 2024-07-31T23:41:42 | 2024-07-31T23:41:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NY80YgcbuNTMJcYRx58M | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17250/linda-yaccarino-ceo-of-twitter/
Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been appointed as the CEO of Twitter by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to assume the role in late June, 2023. The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's f... | 2023-05-25T19:28:51 | 2024-06-30T15:00:00 | 2024-07-01T15:10:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zNEnwcWDNHEeZf4lfN1Z | Will OpenAI report having >=99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/17262/openai-uptime-in-june-2023/
On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com), causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a status page showing, for each calendar day, the n... | 2023-05-25T19:27:07 | 2023-06-30T12:00:00 | 2023-07-03T11:25:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ugilsGFDwk0KGeYIU5II | Will a protest attracting 1000 participants against AGI development occur before 2025? | As Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) continues to progress, it's sparked debates and controversies surrounding ethics, safety, job displacement, and societal changes. As a result, public demonstrations, including protests, have been organized to voice concerns and demand regulations or a halt in AGI development.
B... | 2023-05-25T17:25:49 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-06T13:28:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kyr6jisoamOdxly9FQzH | Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator read above 0.5 percentage points by the end of 2024? | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
The Sahm indicator is a US recession indicator, equal to the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate, and the minimum 3-month average unemployment rate in the preceding 12 months. It is a measure of how rapidly unemployment is increasing.
The Sa... | 2023-05-25T16:46:52 | 2024-08-02T16:07:08 | 2024-08-02T16:07:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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