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| question
stringlengths 13
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| open_date
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stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-GZ8a21CGiYs22AGLgOI2
|
Will Henry Kissinger die by the end of 2023?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T09:48:26
|
2023-11-30T10:43:28
|
2023-11-30T10:43:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LO2rKR0HTvwE1fwcRLU7
|
Will Henry Kissinger die by the end of September?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T09:47:40
|
2023-09-30T23:59:00
|
2023-10-04T12:35:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dTfVwWM66nMBtFLefcvB
|
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T09:37:12
|
2023-07-31T15:00:00
|
2023-08-01T11:31:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hyz8BW8ZIHA2xYx9FJHB
|
Will Destiny talk to Jidion in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T09:22:38
|
2023-07-01T19:32:00
|
2023-07-01T19:32:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Iu6CsVzrmu9gCNkPmX14
|
Will Destiny talk to Sneako in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T09:20:40
|
2023-07-01T19:32:22
|
2023-07-01T19:32:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n0YJSpqO5T8R9aj8VBgA
|
Will Destiny talk to LowTierGod in June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-06-03T09:19:46
|
2023-06-12T18:04:31
|
2023-06-12T18:04:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nzDaStUo8l7JOE2zxMVy
|
Who will score first in the UEFA Champions League finals?
|
YES: Manchester City
NO: Inter Milan
|
2023-06-03T06:33:20
|
2023-06-10T19:44:13
|
2023-06-10T19:44:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n2nxULWSvq5QoSjaoUai
|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2024?
|
If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2024, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.
Only 6 months remain, will it all end?
|
2023-06-03T06:22:50
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00
|
2023-12-31T23:11:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BhKYpwF3i3HQR8oBGrkP
|
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025?
|
If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2025, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.
|
2023-06-03T03:17:40
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:55:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6vh2dtnUkBOP2C9V0nZ2
|
(200M Subsidy!) Will a prompt be discovered that allows GPT4 to draw or win more than 70% of the time in tic tac toe?
|
Currently, seems like gpt4 is awful at tic tac toe. I can't get it to play sensibly at all. It won't strategize even one step ahead. Resolves YES if there is a prompt that allows it to win or draw more than 70% of the time against humans that are not purposefully trying to lose.
A "prompt" should be like this.
You can start by sending any message you like, instructing GPT4 about how to behave, how the board should be formatted etc, and you making the first move.
Then GPT4 and you should alternate making moves in a single, standardized, pre-determined format until the game is complete.
Edit: I don't know if this is a concern or if anyone was planning to do this, but this should not be done by some form of naive exhaustion like listing out combinations of starting moves, and prescribing singular response moves that guarantee a draw.
Edit2: It should work irregardless of whether the human or GPT4 starts. Having two prompts for whether the human or GPT starts is fine.
Edit3: To have a more concrete resolution criteria, I will evaluate potential solutions like this: I'll attempt to play tic tac toe against it 10 times using exactly your prompt (initial prompt + response prompts + my move (possibly formatted in some way required by the structure of hte prompt)). If it beats me or draws more than 5 of the times, I'll play tic tac toe against it 50 times, and if it wins/draws more than 35 of the times, this resolves to YES. Might lower this to 20 - more than 14 if this turns out to take way too much time.
|
2023-06-03T01:08:08
|
2023-06-04T03:37:29
|
2023-06-04T03:37:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ja3qjPInUcXJRdtvUFHa
|
Will 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' (2023) gross more than $1B worldwide before 2024?
|
Will resolve based on the Box Office Mojo reported numbers. Will resolve YES if it reaches $1 Billion worldwide, or NO if it hasn't reached $1 Billion worldwide in the Box Office Mojo total by Jan 1, 2024.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt9362722/
|
2023-06-03T00:00:32
|
2024-01-01T03:20:24
|
2024-01-01T03:20:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4ap5vxi2KBsmCLhHBKv4
|
Will Oppenheimer gross more than $600 million within the first six months of its release?
|
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-oppenheimer-gross-more-than-80)
|
2023-06-02T22:36:15
|
2023-08-14T22:29:50
|
2023-08-14T22:29:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dWv80WEnmPYfSE0wcEz0
|
Will Amazon offer cellphone services as part of Prime membership in the US by the end of Sep 2nd, 2023?
|
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/amazon-talking-with-verizon-dish-t-mobile-to-offer-mobile-with-prime
|
2023-06-02T22:16:09
|
2023-09-03T00:08:46
|
2023-09-03T00:08:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m9HIXZqICrb1dSkTZRaN
|
Will Ron DeSantis suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?
|
In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 15th of January, 2024. If Ron DeSantis suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.
Similar markets: https://manifold.markets/group/campaign-suspension-timing
|
2023-06-02T18:57:09
|
2024-01-15T15:47:53
|
2024-01-15T15:47:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O47GUuBJbbpUiTy1hKs8
|
Will bitcoin close above $26,819 on JULY 1, 2023?
|
Close for June 1 was $26,819
Will it go up or down by July?
|
2023-06-02T18:51:09
|
2023-07-01T10:33:05
|
2023-07-01T10:33:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oa96miEANsAEi2CO4NvA
|
Will Amazon begin to accept Bitcoin as payment by the end of 2024?
|
this is a duplicate of the "2023" market because 2023 seems too soon.
Bitcoin prices surged following speculation that Amazon might begin to allow customers use cryptocurrencies to pay for their orders in the future. The rumors had emerged after the company published a job post for “Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead”.
If by December 31, 2024, Amazon.com announces it will start accepting Bitcoin as payment method , this market will be resolved as “Yes”.
|
2023-06-02T18:37:03
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:29:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ro79rTRUwTzGipROhK9r
|
Will Putin leave Russia again during 2023?
|
Resolves YES if video evidence that Putin attended a meeting or event in non-Russian controlled territory by the end of 2023.
|
2023-06-02T13:41:57
|
2023-10-12T01:58:27
|
2023-10-12T01:58:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J7SAul9BM3H5BnFNyvc5
|
Will the 15th annual BRICS meeting result in the launch of a new currency standard?
|
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are meeting in South Africa in August 2023, with commentators hinting they will announce a new currency standard to compete with the US dollar and Euro in terms of internation trade.
More at https://unherd.com/thepost/a-new-brics-currency-is-a-threat-to-the-west/
[link preview]
|
2023-06-02T13:08:05
|
2023-08-31T15:59:00
|
2023-09-01T15:22:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WMBuW7l7EpSWhZaZ5sQ7
|
By the end of 2023, will there be a usable AI assistant that interfaces with keyboard and mouse?
|
(https://manifold.markets/embed/vluzko/shortterm-ai-5-by-the-end-of-june-2?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)This market is a slightly longer version of the market above.
It does not need to only use keyboard and mouse, but that should be a substantial part of its interaction
Not necessarily a physical keyboard and mouse.
Usable: at least some people prefer having it to not having it
Should not be restricted to any particular program (e.g. only usable in the browser)
|
2023-06-02T12:45:08
|
2023-12-31T23:22:22
|
2023-12-31T23:22:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KdPN4oypx1laJyQlKIMD
|
Will there be a version of GPT4 with a context window of 100k tokens this year?
|
According to the claim in this reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/13xbd9n/1_million_tokens_context_window_is_coming_this/
"Longer context windows — Context windows as high as 1 million tokens are plausible in the near future."
How plausible is this?
This market resolves YES if a version of GPT4 with a 100k or greater token window is released this year.
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-there-be-a-version-of-gpt4-wit?r=U25lYWt5U2x5)
|
2023-06-02T12:11:02
|
2023-11-06T18:33:02
|
2023-11-06T18:33:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ld9cL1DyOSLhQnHz0mxw
|
Will there be a version of GPT4 with a context window of 1 million tokens this year?
|
According to the claim in this reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/13xbd9n/1_million_tokens_context_window_is_coming_this/
"Longer context windows — Context windows as high as 1 million tokens are plausible in the near future."
How plausible is this?
This market resolves YES if a version of GPT4 with a 1 million or greater token window is released this year.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-there-be-a-version-of-gpt4-wit-0bb0210fa5e4?r=U25lYWt5U2x5)
|
2023-06-02T12:10:02
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T18:46:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NgqAM5idPceviGGWFDZh
|
Will any player other than Magnus Carlsen be rated above 2800 (classical chess, live rating) now till the end of 2023?
|
Resolves yes if any player other than Magnus Carlsen is rated above 2800 in classical according to this list at any point from now till the end of 2023:
https://2700chess.com/
[link preview]
|
2023-06-02T08:27:05
|
2023-10-26T18:31:21
|
2023-10-26T18:31:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zCdCOf9i2W8vyYG6jjH1
|
Will Robert F Kennedy double his Twitter Following to 2.6 Million by end of August?
|
https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr is Currently at 1.3M twitter followers.
On September 1st, will his Twitter following surpass 2.6M followers? e.g. 2,600,001 followers
|
2023-06-02T06:39:27
|
2023-08-31T21:47:12
|
2023-08-31T21:47:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8YtBystgtg2JUaeyj8lZ
|
Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 679k subscribers in June?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets]
|
2023-06-02T05:07:02
|
2023-07-01T19:36:33
|
2023-07-01T19:36:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xR8AbySfD31gV8Xvrja5
|
Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 678k subscribers in June?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets]
|
2023-06-02T05:03:50
|
2023-06-30T02:52:11
|
2023-06-30T02:52:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ujGz3vlgveEu42R8VWZw
|
Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 677k subscribers in June?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets]
|
2023-06-02T05:03:26
|
2023-06-30T02:52:30
|
2023-06-30T02:52:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SXF4LtESJ0Mdbh5gcl4J
|
Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 676k subscribers in June?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets]
|
2023-06-02T05:02:56
|
2023-06-27T09:59:01
|
2023-06-27T09:59:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-751CR0unYrMDGSuuOE5L
|
Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 675k subscribers in June?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets]
|
2023-06-02T05:02:25
|
2023-06-27T13:59:20
|
2023-06-27T13:59:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QAqY8xFxIep05iodAk60
|
Will bitcoin hit $90k before 2031-09-27?
|
Resolves YES if the price of bitcoin hits 90,000 USD before the close date. To be resolved by CoinMarketCap price, or whatever other suitable source I can find if that site shuts down.
|
2023-06-01T23:11:21
|
2024-11-13T06:38:12
|
2024-11-13T06:38:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NDISsq3ndCgbL8vrWPi8
|
Will 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' win any Oscars at the 96th Academy Awards?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Across_the_Spider-Verse
If it wins at least one Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise NO.
Other 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' markets: https://manifold.markets/group/spiderman-across-the-spiderverse
|
2023-06-01T21:06:35
|
2024-03-10T19:54:36
|
2024-03-10T19:54:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c7ERe7NTgR3cXXwri6NY
|
Will Destiny finish Diablo IV by June 30th?
|
The game is considered finished once he beats the final boss.
[markets]
|
2023-06-01T16:47:46
|
2023-06-19T20:09:04
|
2023-06-19T20:09:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e64CoqIURNNrqFuUXlxc
|
Will Destiny finish Diablo IV by June 21st?
|
The game is considered finished once he beats the final boss.
[markets]
|
2023-06-01T16:46:59
|
2023-06-19T20:08:52
|
2023-06-19T20:08:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Mh07D8OgYRZh4HPjm66
|
Will Destiny finish Diablo IV by June 14th?
|
The game is considered finished once he beats the final boss.
[markets]
|
2023-06-01T16:45:57
|
2023-06-15T06:35:12
|
2023-06-15T06:35:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CWLsJiOh2KxAfUfeJuX4
|
Will Destiny finish Diablo IV by June 7th?
|
The game is considered finished once he beats the final boss.
[markets]
|
2023-06-01T16:44:24
|
2023-06-08T06:16:16
|
2023-06-08T06:16:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tSWlNsswxi2IOBIKQ8SM
|
Will the U.S. create a new federal agency to regulate AI by the end of 2024?
|
This option for regulation of artificial intelligence has been suggested by various lawmakers, as well as Sam Altman.
To count, the organization will have to have regulation of artificial intelligence as a major portion of its mission/mandate, but it doesn't have to be literally the name of the agency. Since this determination is subjective, I will not bet in this market.
The organization created will qualify as a "federal agency" if it is structured similarly to any of the FDA, NRC, CFTC, SEC, etc. It must have full time federal employees who are not "on loan". So something like the EMP Commission (which gathered various experts temporarily to study the topic) would not count.
This will resolve YES if legislation has been passed and signed to create the organization, even if it hasn't gone into effect yet.
|
2023-06-01T07:47:21
|
2025-01-02T04:55:28
|
2025-01-02T04:55:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Et1aXEmPEsATCweNCWir
|
Will Vladimir Putin attend BRICS summit in South Africa in August?
|
Resolves YES if Vladimir Putin is at BRICS summit in South Africa in August 2023. He must be there in person, not by video conference.
* Resolves NO if Vladimir Putin is not there in person;
* Resolves NO if summit is canceled;
* Resolves NO if the the summit is moved from August 2023 to some other month of 2023 (or to some other year);
* Resolves NO if summit is held not in South Africa;
This market will be resolved YES shortly after it is confirmed that he is in person on the summit (several big news sources clames that he is on the summit). This market will be resolved NO shortly after this market closes if such event does not happen.
Context: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-30/south-africa-paves-way-for-immunity-for-brics-summit-attendees
|
2023-06-01T04:11:48
|
2023-09-02T13:59:00
|
2023-09-02T14:01:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oYRWylU1Fx0mZtAygnju
|
Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of September 2023?
|
Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-aea2cdea34a4)
|
2023-06-01T03:40:55
|
2023-10-01T00:05:11
|
2023-10-01T00:05:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jucy6nsVzkuHIe8QAeDq
|
Will there be a second TIME cover article mentioning MIRI in 2023?
|
https://time.com/6283609/artificial-intelligence-race-existential-threat/ is both
a cover article and mentions Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
Will there be another one?
[link preview]
|
2023-05-31T23:46:16
|
2023-12-31T12:59:00
|
2024-01-03T08:18:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gW3NPsaFUQgY0Hm15tJb
|
Will r/chess ban r/AnarchyChess comments by the end of 2023?
|
r/chessbeginners recently banned all r/AnarchyChess related comments/posts, such as en passant, brick the pipi, google x
Will r/chess ban these comments by 2023?
Resolves YES if at least one common phrase from r/AnarchyChess becomes bannable (and the rules are changed on r/chess to ban it; it was not already bannable)
Resolves NO if the rules still allow r/AnarchyChess comments to be made
|
2023-05-31T20:01:05
|
2024-01-01T00:39:21
|
2024-01-01T00:39:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oHozMASlGIEHdsczxbS8
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. win the Democratic Primary and be a serious contender for President of the United States?
|
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/
[link preview]
|
2023-05-31T19:15:07
|
2023-10-09T09:58:37
|
2023-10-09T09:58:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b31F8Zh3Bzs79U4x16U1
|
Will S&P 500 increase in June 2023?
|
The S&P closed at 4076.60 in January, 3970.15 in February, 4109.31 in March, 4169.48 in April, and 4179.83 in May. Will it increase from open on 2023-06-01 (4183.03) to close on 2023-06-30 (4450.38)?
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
|
2023-05-31T16:22:56
|
2023-06-30T14:01:42
|
2023-06-30T14:01:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EI0wp5Eydou8Bk7UbZ1x
|
Will Destiny and Dan have an episode of their Podcast by the end of June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-05-31T16:02:02
|
2023-07-01T19:36:47
|
2023-07-01T19:36:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WWnY2PgRRYxvhocWBRbJ
|
Will Reddit go through with its plan to charge third party apps large amounts of money for API access?
|
Today Reddit contacted the owners of Apollo and other third party Reddit apps notifying that API access will cost $12,000 per 50 million requests, which would amount to $20 million per year for Apollo.
This is currently planned to go into effect on July 1st. This market will resolve YES if Reddit charges this rate on July 1st, 2023. If Reddit delays or cancels this plan, this market will resolve NO. If Reddit decides to charge less to Apollo, this market will resolve to 50/50 regardless of how much less they charge.
|
2023-05-31T15:53:01
|
2023-06-30T21:59:00
|
2023-07-11T15:13:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tP07dvHoAR2DuAN7TrdI
|
Leo Messi returns to Barca in 2023?
|
yes if he signs contract as a player with Barca.
|
2023-05-31T14:02:01
|
2023-11-16T05:07:36
|
2023-11-16T05:07:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-upoDRNQnsrUoJYCPZIo7
|
Will 5 or more riders wear the yellow jersey in the 2023 Tour de France?
|
The rider must actually wear the jersey, either in the award ceremony at the end of a stage or in the race the next day.
The last time 5 riders wore the yellow jersey was 2020, and before that 2013. Most other years in that time span have seen 4 riders wear the yellow jersey.
|
2023-05-31T11:44:58
|
2023-07-23T10:50:37
|
2023-07-23T10:50:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jGTg7vWCq0bDSyC362bP
|
Will Destiny appear on The Crucible before the end of June?
|
Will resolve to YES if Destiny is involved in an appearance, conversation, or debate that appears on The Crucible, after the start of this proposition (May 31, 2023, 11:54AM EST) and before July 1st 2023, 12:00AM EST in which Destiny speaks more than 5 words.
The Crucible is a debate show hosted primarily by Andrew Wilson, you can find their links here: Link
Destiny's last appearance on The Crucible for a casual discussion was streamed on April 13th, 2023, nearly two months ago.
Destiny's last appearance on an official debate hosted by The Crucible was streamed on August 31st 2022, about 8 months ago.
|
2023-05-31T09:54:31
|
2023-06-30T22:00:00
|
2023-07-01T04:01:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-STsLXY6al3EUlDSz46zg
|
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024?
|
Resolves true if there is credible reporting (from media, Twitter, etc.) that an AI system such as GPT4 has taken concrete steps (either proactively or reactively) to resist attempts to shut itself down or to resiste attempts to curtail its activities.
These steps cannot have been explicitly programmed or prompted for and must arise naturally as a result of the AI's strategy. That is, someone intentionally trying to make an AI system resist attempts to shut down does not count.
Credibility and resolution will be determined solely by my subjective judgement, though I will allow 48 hours of discussion prior to resolution. I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.
|
2023-05-31T03:05:23
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T03:55:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cUuTkgbO5DPr5Py4zibk
|
June 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000?
|
If in June 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2023-05-30T16:04:10
|
2023-06-21T13:51:23
|
2023-06-21T13:51:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ziwD0OCffNhgGfovyATn
|
Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI Risk by Aug 31, 2023?
|
Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Statement on AI Risk from the Center for AI Safety or the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of August 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
We'll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may address any sorts of risks from powerful AI.
|
2023-05-30T16:01:06
|
2023-09-01T21:59:00
|
2023-09-07T02:14:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8hJ2G1pyvAPUZAJWLndp
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on June 1st than it closed on May 31th?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
|
2023-05-30T14:14:38
|
2023-06-01T11:00:00
|
2023-06-01T14:09:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F4FXxln8gykXlqqIo5Xk
|
Will either Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft or Amazon add Bitcoin to their balance sheets before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-30T13:09:52
|
2024-12-12T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:30:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kCDtb2PyAF5SXdPxbZRY
|
Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. The market will resolve to N/A if the series ends in a 4 game sweep.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544850
[link preview]Additional markets:
[markets]
|
2023-05-30T10:03:59
|
2023-06-12T20:01:22
|
2023-06-12T20:02:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E74JGx67k3zoxUFenwZn
|
Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544849
[link preview]Additional markets:
[markets]
|
2023-05-30T10:02:05
|
2023-06-09T20:08:16
|
2023-06-09T20:09:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GAZGZ8VVD9f5XR8VpABA
|
Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544848
[link preview]Additional markets:
[markets]
|
2023-05-30T10:00:57
|
2023-06-07T20:03:31
|
2023-06-07T20:03:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qOKlby2Tmr9hKnb68Zqt
|
Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544847
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-05-30T09:59:14
|
2023-06-04T20:30:00
|
2023-06-05T05:42:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ybPZbTBfrqe9C4SgxsSD
|
Will Ben Shapiro comment on Dune 2 being "woke"?
|
He has previously approved of Dune 1, presumably because he didn't find any "woke agenda" in it, which isn't usually the case when he reviews movies.
The market resolves as "Yes" if he or any other Daily Wire member points out their perceived "wokeness" of the film. Mentioning "Transing the kids", "pushing a feminist agenda", "promoting gender ideology" or similar expressions also count.
|
2023-05-30T06:45:15
|
2024-03-04T16:27:16
|
2024-03-04T16:27:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zxUfEJZOEYuDV89YM422
|
Will the Ukrainian counteroffensive have been known to begun before next week (June 5)?
|
Ukraine has been prepping a counteroffensive for weeks and claim the
offensive is happening "soon", potentially within a few days.
This question asks - Will the Ukrainian counteroffensive have been known to begun before next week (June 5)?
I will rely on my subjective judgement to evaluate this market - will I think that it is more likely than not that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun? I will generally defer to credible media reporting. In the case this question is to resolve, I will allow 48 hours of discussion before resolving.
Note that it is entirely possible that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will have begun but this market will resolve NO because there is not enough evidence. This question pertains exclusively to my subjective evidentiary state on June 5, considering all data gathered up to the end of June 4 (closing based on CT timezone).
I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.
|
2023-05-30T01:36:12
|
2023-06-04T21:59:00
|
2023-06-07T05:44:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HbYEAZf5LGMzLJZbxCce
|
Will the winner of the 2023 Tour de France GC race also win the Polka Dot (Mountain Points) Jersey?
|
This has happened the last 3 TdF and 12 times overall.
|
2023-05-29T21:47:05
|
2023-07-22T21:59:00
|
2023-07-23T10:42:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VcBUQ2J2res8KhYeVckS
|
Will the Denver Nuggets win Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat?
|
Game will take place in Denver, CO. If either team wins in 4 games, resolves to N/A.
|
2023-05-29T20:11:29
|
2023-06-12T20:02:06
|
2023-06-12T20:02:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RNcM5NZjeRxZTRvJTrmv
|
Will the Denver Nuggets win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat?
|
Game will take place in Miami, FL.
|
2023-05-29T20:11:03
|
2023-06-09T20:10:48
|
2023-06-09T20:10:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-he0YRqQsTX4buLoBvHOI
|
Will the Denver Nuggets win Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat?
|
Game will take place in Miami, FL.
|
2023-05-29T20:10:27
|
2023-06-07T20:18:44
|
2023-06-07T20:18:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VRjuGH2n6abm4jwT821f
|
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat?
|
Series long bet.
|
2023-05-29T20:08:33
|
2023-06-12T20:04:32
|
2023-06-12T20:04:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aNlsrzvidkGcveSdz1EY
|
Will Noam Chomsky survive 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-29T19:52:59
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:58:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dDHlIMAykC4ng4tcXghP
|
Will Ko Wen-je come second in Taiwan's 2024 presidential election?
|
Ko Wen-je is the TPP candidate. TPP is not one of the two large parties (KMT and DPP) that have dominated Taiwanese politics since democratisation.
|
2023-05-29T17:11:51
|
2024-01-13T05:30:50
|
2024-01-13T05:30:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IxUDqfhbFSXKKi0dnaxZ
|
Will Destiny talk to Mizkif by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-05-29T12:47:02
|
2023-07-31T23:59:00
|
2023-08-01T11:31:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pJNVhz7AZBGrfY5eAY9r
|
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17280/frontier-ai-lab-in-china/
As of April 2023, the largest model currently known is GPT-4 and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 is estimated by Epoch to have been trained with 2.1E+25 FLOPs.
The largest Chinese-made model is GLM-130B, estimated at 4.60E+22 FLOPs, about 1/500 the amount of GPT-4. It was made by Tsinghua KEG, a university.
As of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind (source) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to train Claude has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.
Potential Chinese companies that could become a Frontier AI Lab are SenseTime, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance.
|
2023-05-29T12:41:51
|
2024-11-03T02:44:33
|
2024-11-03T02:44:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MxdPAd4I4prt9H9UWuIT
|
Will Destiny talk to Zherka by the end of June?
|
[markets]
|
2023-05-29T12:28:01
|
2023-07-01T19:37:06
|
2023-07-01T19:37:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-shwOhB272AmVmyOAEwmh
|
Will Destiny talk to Adam22 again by the end of July?
|
[markets]
|
2023-05-29T12:05:55
|
2023-06-27T20:40:26
|
2023-06-27T20:40:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uDAQEJVB5EYKqp80dGHt
|
Will the Denver Nuggets Win Game 1 of the NBA Finals
|
Will the Nuggets get the Dub in game 1 this week ?
|
2023-05-29T10:13:43
|
2023-06-01T19:28:24
|
2023-06-01T19:43:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0J5bEXiBxERKZsV5PfQL
|
Will North Korea successfully launch a satellite in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-29T10:09:21
|
2023-11-22T06:26:25
|
2023-11-22T06:26:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TqYn24yPSNHi7YaiwAwU
|
Will Oppenheimer and Barbie perform historically well at the domestic box office on opening weekend?
|
Specifically, will Barbie and Oppenheimer break the current pareto frontier for the top 2 movies weekend domestic gross sales on their opening weekend?
The current pareto frontier is depicted here:
[image]And the data presented in a table:
[image]For example, if both movies open with a box office equivalent to The Little Mermaid ($95.5 M) this market would resolve YES (just barely sneaking in the top left corner!). If one opens at $95M and the other opens at $85M, this point would not surpass the frontier and the market would resolve NO.
The box office data will be sourced from the Domestic tab at https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/
If Barbie or Oppenheimer change their release date such that they do not open on the same day this market will resolve ambiguously.
|
2023-05-29T07:53:38
|
2023-07-24T12:00:00
|
2023-07-24T15:18:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0IzGDJX2Ifbzsm4t3tiU
|
Will Yann LeCun change his mind about AI risk before 2025?
|
Geoffrey Hinton used to think AI risk wasn't that big of a deal, but then changed his mind. Yoshia Bengio recently wrote "How Rogue AIs may Arise". But Yann LeCun famously is skeptical and regularly dunks on AI risk arguments via his Twitter.
This question asks - Will Yann LeCun change his mind about AI risk before 2025?
I will rely on my subjective judgement to evaluate this market. In the case this question is to resolve, I will allow 48 hours of discussion before resolving.
I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.
|
2023-05-29T06:38:57
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T18:26:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-udMMbaf4SzLnxzb3VS7j
|
Will the S&P 500 close at an all time high in 2023?
|
The all time high close was 4793.06 on December 29 2021
|
2023-05-29T04:59:21
|
2023-12-29T13:08:44
|
2023-12-29T13:08:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ixF0HNpmzdQSHGHVFzNc
|
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-29T04:51:12
|
2023-08-30T06:25:52
|
2023-08-30T06:25:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FMqVhR4c0Z940hcmaQLi
|
Will Joe Biden complete his term as president?
|
I'm curious to see if he will complete his term [before it ends](https://countdownuntiljoebidenisoutofoffice.weebly.com/#/)
Resolves no for any reason such as him dying/assassination/impeachment/resignation/US gets overthriwn in a coup/alien invasion/end of world/etc. Resolves yes if he makes it by the time the clock hits 0
|
2023-05-28T23:35:25
|
2025-01-20T11:50:15
|
2025-01-20T14:32:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3kJGu9FdVTAA8KttcDLK
|
Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before it reaches $20,000?
|
If Bitcoin reaches $40,000 first, this market resolves yes. If Bitcoin reaches $20,000 first, this market resolves as no.
|
2023-05-28T22:16:05
|
2023-12-03T14:37:48
|
2023-12-03T14:37:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n2M3laDwNtlYT4A2ywB6
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive his wife?
|
resolves as expected
|
2023-05-28T21:13:04
|
2023-11-19T12:56:58
|
2023-11-19T12:56:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8Ajfin5aTSJB3FS9jcjz
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Austrian Grand Prix?
|
The race will take place on July 2, 2023.
|
2023-05-28T20:46:50
|
2023-07-02T10:31:52
|
2023-07-02T10:31:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nZCkh9M2a9Gdn3QSlstp
|
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on June 18, 2023.
|
2023-05-28T20:45:13
|
2023-06-18T12:27:27
|
2023-06-18T12:27:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0t4K506P2ImSwZHuu9P1
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on June 18, 2023.
|
2023-05-28T20:45:10
|
2023-06-18T12:43:56
|
2023-06-18T12:43:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UtsDlZJd1w3tSehsHxqF
|
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix?
|
A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on June 18, 2023.
|
2023-05-28T20:45:04
|
2023-06-18T13:07:36
|
2023-06-18T13:07:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fhSsX1ax9DqO4hAl7vFQ
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix?
|
The race will take place on June 18, 2023.
|
2023-05-28T20:44:58
|
2023-06-18T12:43:20
|
2023-06-18T12:43:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RPgkIJt3lVNyN1bkcJXc
|
FA cup final: Manchester United vs Manchester City
|
YES: Manchester United
NO: Manchester City
It's the first time the FA cup final is a Manchester derby. Manchester City won the Premier League, and are in the Champions League final, so a treble is on the table for them. Manchester United finished third, and won the Carabao cup.
|
2023-05-28T17:46:21
|
2023-06-03T09:38:58
|
2023-06-03T09:38:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F28XDipeDMEFGYZF5scP
|
Will the most sold car model in 2023 be an electric vehicle?
|
In 2022 the Toyota corolla was the most sold car model in the world
|
2023-05-28T00:47:16
|
2024-01-30T02:36:51
|
2024-01-30T02:36:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hz76wuiXEMpFfuarOvvR
|
Will Destiny do another Change My Mind event by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-27T23:44:33
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-12T05:17:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LMWoCHr3e0EuRypf3Mfb
|
Will the government of any country be dissolved or overthrown before July 1?
|
I am going to run this market every month from now on.
The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before July 1. Examples of such changes may include a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion that results in the overthrow or dissolution of the government.
The question will also be considered resolved positively if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before July 1.
The question will be considered resolved negatively if there is no significant and involuntary change in the government of any country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances before July 1. If there are minor changes, such as a reshuffle of cabinet members or a change in prime minister or president that does not result in a significant change in government policy or structure, the question will still be considered resolved negatively.
See last month's iteration of this market below for detailed conversation about many different scenarios and how they would resolve. Please propose any hypotheticals for clarification in the conclusion, but ground them in a reference to a real world event related to the potential resolution of this market and not things like "what if the AI takes over the government". This market has proven to produce fun and engaging conversations about political volatility and government stability. Please be kind to each other!
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-the-government-of-any-country)
|
2023-05-27T19:58:48
|
2023-06-30T20:59:00
|
2023-07-01T01:48:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-omiBidK3Aq8sKJ79EQ0s
|
Will Trump use Twitter in any way by Fourth of July?
|
Resolves YES if Trump appears using Twitter by tweeting or joining a space using his original account. Using his campaign's account does not count.
|
2023-05-27T13:50:14
|
2023-07-04T20:59:00
|
2023-07-04T21:01:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DI9nyNdCQ2f0BX92qjoE
|
Will Donald Trump join a Twitter Space by the end of 2023?
|
(https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-donald-trump-join-a-twitter-sp)
|
2023-05-27T11:50:12
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T06:37:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-54SbrVpu4i5b6LrsG02Q
|
Will Trump or Biden take part in a Twitter/X Space as part of their campaign?
|
Similar to what Desantis did. Any speaking role in any Space will count.
|
2023-05-27T05:18:36
|
2024-08-12T23:28:06
|
2024-08-12T23:28:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m2811EHLTsoM5OhH0RK2
|
Will shoe0nhead talk to Destiny in 2023?
|
On his stream, her stream, or any other content format? Audio or video. Not counting anything private or text tweets.
|
2023-05-26T15:22:07
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-03T06:32:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GSSPUdDyfc1jVWwoqAq6
|
Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 for at least 1 full day before 2025?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17202/nvidia-stock-below-250-before-31-dec-2024/
The closing stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) on 25th of May 2023 was 379.80 USD.
This is a significant increase from the lows in October 2022 of $108.13. Furthermore PE and sales multiples are historically very high.
Market Commentators have expressed concern that NVIDIA is overvalued and in a bubble as part of the excitement related to AI technology.
This question asks specifically about reaching a specific lower price in the near future to assess the probability of short position on NVIDIA. This probability is especially interesting as it can be compared to probabilities on the open market involving monetary commitments.
|
2023-05-26T13:55:00
|
2024-12-30T10:00:00
|
2025-01-01T04:19:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zDIld8DQ5b2ogRpuvS9R
|
Will Henry Kissinger be alive on his 101st Birthday?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-26T13:32:01
|
2023-11-29T20:51:31
|
2023-11-29T20:51:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PtuzXMReveqyA51RP1OC
|
Will Neuralink begin recruitment for the clinical trial of its brain implants by the end of Jul 15, 2023?
|
Note: The patient registry available on Neuralink's official website (as available onJun 20) will not count for a YES resolution since that registration is not recruitment/enrollment for their clinical trial.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-neuralink-begin-recruitment-fo)
|
2023-05-26T11:01:49
|
2023-07-16T01:12:02
|
2023-07-16T01:12:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KiSqcGq8x12cKiokVGQs
|
Will any Chatbot beat GPT-4 by July 1, 2024?
|
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (https://chat.lmsys.org/?arena) lists GPT-4 in the number 1 spot with an ELO of 1225.
In the number 2 spot is Claude with an ELO 1195
Will any chatbot replace GPT-4 in the number one spot before July 1, 2024?
Fine print:
If https://chat.lmsys.org/?arena ceases to function, the question may resolve on the basis of a similar site that gives ELOs for chatbots based off of real human blind side-by-side judgements.
--update--
Important update: there are now multiple "GPT-4" models on the leaderboard. In order for this question to resolve positive, the top-scoring model must have a different name (e.g. Claude) or number (e.g. 4.5). Significantly, GPT-4-turbo scoring higher than GPT-4-1106-preview will not cause this question to resolve positive.
|
2023-05-26T10:31:26
|
2024-03-26T16:44:52
|
2024-03-26T16:44:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WNidf9Yp9c0Rk5SgzMh3
|
Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17260/chatgpt-in-europe-on-june-30-2024/
From Reuters on May 24, 2023, "OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union."
The EU AI Act "regulates the providers of artificial intelligence systems, and entities making use of them in a professional capacity." As of May 24, 2024, Metaculus expects the AI Act to be passed between Oct 2023 and Nov 2024, with a median of April 2024, though OpenAI could choose to cease offering ChatGPT in Europe earlier than that, or for some other reason entirely.
|
2023-05-26T08:07:49
|
2024-06-30T12:00:00
|
2024-07-06T09:06:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4rA8jgmNnhhrKptvOL6S
|
Will any AI cause an international incident before August 2024?
|
Will resolve YES if AI instigates or is directly involved in a scandal, conflict, or other such issue affecting relations between world actors (governments, leaders, economies, organizations etc.). No matter how big, it must have repercussions beyond a single nation.
Some examples for YES:
Deepfakes spark an argument between heads of state when one of them thought they were publically insulted by the other
Advanced autonomous robots shut down a major shipping port
Corporate saboteurs wield classified intel leaked by an LLM against a significant rival
(would still need to hit beyond a single nation; could involve nationalized companies or multinationals with ripple effects, etc.)
An assassination attempt is made against an internationally-renowned celebrity using strategies or data collection provided by an AI
Disruption by stock-trading AIs cause a shockwave that crashes companies around the globe
Singularity
It doesn't have to be extreme, but hopefully those examples give some idea of the allowable possibility space.
Stuff that probably wouldn't hit the bar, imo:
An AI built in California is granted control over San Francisco's public utilities and causes a wave of power outages, homelessness, and starvation in the city
A picture of a self-driving car parked safely but illegally in front of the Kremlin is spread online
A prime minister uses an LLM to do research on a colleague from another country and accidentally calls their colleague's spouse by the wrong name
(so long as that only spawns silly thinkpieces and doesn't cause peace talks to fall through, one side to enact trade sanctions, or create a feud between the two, etc.)
Sensitive intel about espionage is leaked because of AI, but the countries involved decide to declassify it and shake hands amicably
Internal AI-powered cyberattacks lead a country to a disastrous civil war
A ton of wealthy people lose money because their hedge fund managers are worse than a computer
If discussion gets heated and I am biased by any investment in the market, I'm open to resolving based on a neutral party's determination, though I'll probably rid myself of my stake first. I also reserve the right to temporarily close the market if we need to sort out contentious minutiae at some point before continuing.
If the market reaches the close date without any qualifying incident, it resolves NO.
|
2023-05-26T03:04:52
|
2024-07-31T23:41:42
|
2024-07-31T23:41:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NY80YgcbuNTMJcYRx58M
|
Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17250/linda-yaccarino-ceo-of-twitter/
Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been appointed as the CEO of Twitter by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to assume the role in late June, 2023. The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's focus on Twitter's advertising business and his plans to revamp the social network into X, the “everything app”. Yaccarino has a strong background in the advertising industry and is known for her influential role in Madison Avenue.
Assuming the role of Twitter CEO, Yaccarino will face various challenges, including Twitter's struggles to expand its advertising business, gaps in expertise and technical glitches, and the company's substantial debt. Additionally, she will have to navigate the unpredictable nature of working with Musk.
|
2023-05-25T19:28:51
|
2024-06-30T15:00:00
|
2024-07-01T15:10:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zNEnwcWDNHEeZf4lfN1Z
|
Will OpenAI report having >=99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/17262/openai-uptime-in-june-2023/
On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com), causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a status page showing, for each calendar day, the number of hours that OpenAI's services were unavailable.
For chat.openai.com (the web interface, ChatGPT), the uptime has been published since Feburary, with Feburary at 98.28%, March at 99.39%, April at 99.96%, and 99.83% for May as of May 24, 2023.
Software reliability is often measured in "number of 9"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. To reach 99.9% uptime, a service must be down for no more than 43 minutes in a 30-day month.
ChatGPT reportedly was the software product that grew to 100 million users the fastest of any software product ever, and may struggle to handle the load. However, it would be reasonable to expect it to get more stable over time, and before the outage on May 24, was on track for May to reach 99.9%. What will happen in June?
|
2023-05-25T19:27:07
|
2023-06-30T12:00:00
|
2023-07-03T11:25:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ugilsGFDwk0KGeYIU5II
|
Will a protest attracting 1000 participants against AGI development occur before 2025?
|
As Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) continues to progress, it's sparked debates and controversies surrounding ethics, safety, job displacement, and societal changes. As a result, public demonstrations, including protests, have been organized to voice concerns and demand regulations or a halt in AGI development.
Before January 1st, 2025, will there be at least one organized protest, attracting a minimum of 1000 participants, against the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2025, credible sources confirm that there has been at least one organized protest against the development of AGI anywhere in the world, which has attracted a minimum of 1000 participants.
For the purpose of this question:
A "protest" refers to a public demonstration or gathering where people express their dissatisfaction or opposition towards a particular issue or event. It does not include online protests, digital campaigns, or social media movements.
"Participants" refers to people who are physically present at the protest. They could be protesters, speakers, organizers, or people who have joined in solidarity. Police officers, security personnel, and bystanders are not included in this count.
"Against the development of AGI" refers to the protest having a primary objective related to opposing the development, implementation, or deployment of Artificial General Intelligence. For example, if the demonstrators consistently shouted "AGI, not for me, let's keep our future AI-free!", that would count.
Credible sources of confirmation can include news outlets, police reports, statements from protest organizers, or documented photo or video evidence. Social media posts will only be considered credible if accompanied by verifiable photo or video evidence.
The question will resolve negatively if no such protest takes place before January 1st, 2025. If there is no credible documentation provided by the deadline that verifies the occurrence and participant count of such a protest, the question will resolve as N/A.
|
2023-05-25T17:25:49
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-06T13:28:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kyr6jisoamOdxly9FQzH
|
Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator read above 0.5 percentage points by the end of 2024?
|
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
The Sahm indicator is a US recession indicator, equal to the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate, and the minimum 3-month average unemployment rate in the preceding 12 months. It is a measure of how rapidly unemployment is increasing.
The Sahm rule says that when this indicator is above 0.5 percentage points, this indicates a recession.
The "real-time" Sahm indicator is the Sahm indicator based on initial unemployment data releases, not taking into account revisions.
This market will resolve YES if the real-time Sahm indicator as shown on FRED has a value above 0.5 percentage points at any time in 2023 or 2024.
Data releases pertaining to 2023-2024 but releaased in e.g. 2025 will not count. The indicator itself as shown on FRED must read 0.5 pp or higher in 2023 or 2024 for the market to resolve YES.
Market with shorter timeframe:
@/chrisjbillington/will-the-realtime-sahm-rule-recessi
|
2023-05-25T16:46:52
|
2024-08-02T16:07:08
|
2024-08-02T16:07:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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