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forecasting

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mani-ejRfWlx2Z2c7xbTAqyUb
Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Penny Mordaunt?
Resolves to YES if the next leader of the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak is Penny Mordaunt. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, it still counts; if the party dissolves or ceases to exist, this will resolve N/A. I will extend the close date if necessary.
2023-05-15T10:19:56
2024-08-16T00:01:09
2024-08-16T00:01:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w8dxOG0spM6qe4xOEaum
Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Kemi Badenoch?
Resolves to YES if the next leader of the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak is Kemi Badenoch. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, it still counts; if the party dissolves or ceases to exist, this will resolve N/A. I will extend the close date if necessary.
2023-05-15T10:19:54
2024-11-02T09:47:02
2024-11-02T09:47:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RInzajdeFOjvP66VlToz
Will U.S. inflation fall to 4.4% or less in May 2023?
U.S. inflation from December 2022 to April 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%. Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in CPI in the U.S. fall from April 2023 (4.9%) to 4.4% or less in May 2023 (4.0%)?
2023-05-15T01:40:43
2023-06-13T05:35:29
2023-06-13T05:35:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GXkZ1kYYVJb4zI2SetIV
Will Lukashenko still be alive at the end of 2023?
Will Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko still be alive on Dec 31, 2023?
2023-05-14T20:47:25
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T16:53:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2jfpnPFb8ARKRMO9GGlb
Will Klay Thompson be on the Golden State Warriors to start the 2023-24 NBA season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-14T17:52:18
2023-10-23T23:59:00
2023-10-26T03:46:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SUjNlZ7SIpIegw8NCMWw
Will Chris Hipkins be the New Zealand Prime Minister on 1 December 2023
The New Zealand election is being held on 14 October 2023 with the official results being returned on 3 November. Chris Hipkins is the current Prime Minister and leader of the incumbent Labour Party. The nature of the New Zealand political system makes it less conclusive that there will be a determined result for the Prime Minister as there is a chance of a protracted coalition negotiation. If Chris Hipkins is the Prime Minister on 1 December 2023, this will resolve "yes".
2023-05-14T15:13:43
2023-12-06T22:35:35
2023-12-06T22:35:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v5KOnYSor4JPxjjueNDv
Will the #2 Boston Celtics defeat the #8 Miami Heat in Game 7 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-14T15:08:13
2023-05-29T19:43:47
2023-05-29T19:43:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ExnULOc9tyWcz6vohnv7
Will the #2 Boston Celtics defeat the #8 Miami Heat in the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
Series long bet.
2023-05-14T15:07:04
2023-05-29T19:44:35
2023-05-29T19:44:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NZp2HTR4YPab2uzRFXcA
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be imprisoned or deceased by end of August?
Yes = he is publicly known to be imprisoned (in Russia, or any other place), or to be deceased - or it can be inferred as very likely from public sources No = not the case I might resolve Prob if it's some unclear in-between situation, a-la Kim Jong-Il in the last months of his stay on this Earth, blessed be his name
2023-05-14T12:29:28
2023-08-31T23:59:00
2023-09-01T00:14:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qdOwPW0oobKDnAL743iw
Will Erdogan get the most votes in the first round of the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
Background: On May 14th, 2023, the first round of the Turkish presidential election will be held. A second round will be held if no candidate reaches 50% of the votes. Will Erdogan get a plurality of the votes in the first presidential election, as determined by the Supreme Election Council? This could mean outright winning in the first round, or getting less than 50% of the vote but still more than any other candidate.
2023-05-14T12:09:32
2023-05-14T19:53:23
2023-05-14T19:53:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NwljXphGb0MMCGuInKuq
Will Trump and Biden have three debates?
>=
2023-05-14T10:57:16
2024-11-04T13:26:52
2024-11-04T13:26:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CdfNoMy6nHb9U5hyVbjv
Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Western Conference Finals against the #7 LA Lakers?
This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games). Since each game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. Additional Markets: [markets][markets]
2023-05-14T10:09:19
2023-05-22T20:16:11
2023-05-22T20:18:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-btpGCg7XBR9sFL30xcWV
Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Western Conference Finals against the #7 LA Lakers?
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547684 Additional Markets: [markets][markets]
2023-05-14T10:00:39
2023-05-22T20:15:53
2023-05-22T20:19:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1BXqKNLwjFFaGYILDTWv
Will Destiny talk to Aella by the end of May?
[markets]
2023-05-14T05:30:41
2023-06-01T03:38:57
2023-06-01T03:38:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VlaNcG4nP3rcatElgpjI
Will Destiny talk to FD Signifier in 2023?
[markets]
2023-05-14T05:26:09
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T16:08:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LJhRwnqEBX7Tdh7VlwU8
Will there be a software security incident caused by the new .zip TLD before the end of 2024?
https://twitter.com/Google/status/1653866291692728320?s=20 People in the replies are very concerned about the security implications of the new TLD. The .zip domain must be an important part of the incident. For example, if some malware happens to ring home via an "internal" .zip domain, that doesn't count. If a user downloads some malware because they think they're downloading a harmless .zip file, that counts. A PoC by a security researcher, where they rely on a .zip domain to show what a potential attack would look like, doesn't count.
2023-05-14T02:09:18
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-05T16:09:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hFG0ibiUhMLi7DbA0DLv
Will at least 6 new nuclear power plants connect to the grid in 2023?
Data source used to resolve this market: https://pris.iaea.org/pris/home.aspx ̶C̶u̶r̶r̶e̶n̶t̶l̶y̶ As of market creation,3 plants have been connected YES = if 3 more are connected by the end of this year.
2023-05-14T01:51:22
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-04T17:12:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj
Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?
You're offered a gamble where a pair of six-sided dice are rolled and unless they come up snake eyes you get a bajillion dollars. If they do come up snake eyes, you're devoured by snakes. So far it sounds like you have a 1/36 chance of dying, right? Now the twist. First, I gather up an unlimited number of people willing to play the game. I take 1 person from that pool and let them play. Then I take 2 people and have them play together, where they share a dice roll and either get the bajillion dollars each or both get devoured. Then I do the same with 4 people, and then 8, 16, and so on. At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I stop. [Alt. phrasing: We keep going until one of those groups is devoured by snakes, then the game stops.] Is the probability that you'll die, given that you're chosen to play, still 1/36? Argument for NO aka the frequency argument Due to the doubling, the final group of people that die is slightly bigger than all the surviving groups put together. So if you're chosen to play you have about a 50% chance of dying! 😬 🐍 Argument for YES aka the one-fair-roll argument The dice rolls are independent and whenever you're chosen, whatever happened in earlier rounds is irrelevant. Your chances of death are the chances of snake eyes on your round: 1/36. 😅 Clarifications and FAQ The game is not adversarial; the dice rolls are independent and fair. Choosing each group also happens uniformly randomly and without replacement. [Retracted: An attempt to define a truncated game to take a limit of.] [Retracted: Blah blah conditional probability.] [Retracted: Whether it's possible for everyone to survive.] [Retracted: More blah-blah on conditional probability.] [Retracted: Ruling out "undefined" as an answer.] [Retracted: Nitpicking "at some point".] [Retracted: Yet more blah-blah on conditional probability.] Resolution criteria For an official resolution we'll write up a proof (or "proof") that the answer is 1/36 and a proof that the answer is ~1/2 (really anything greater than 1/36 would be fine) and then recruit some mathematician(s) to make an independent judgment on which is correct. Or maybe we'll just reach consensus in the comments? UPDATE: @Lorxus has accepted the role of adjudicator. Here are Lorxus's terms, with some comments of mine in brackets: 0. [For a fee of 1% of market volume at the time of acceptance, M$1308, now paid], I will continue to uphold my commitment not to bet on this market. More importantly, now that @dreev has passed arbitration to me, I will read the mathematical arguments of both sides and use my best professional judgement to diligently determine soundness and mathematical correctness. 1. The YES bettors and the NO bettors must reach their separate consensuses as to which writeup to send me. I will only accept a single writeup per side, and will only accept these writeups in the form of a PDF or text file. If you choose to use LaTeX, send me the PDF and not the raw TeX. This must be sent to me before 2023-09-30 at 23:59 EST. I will treat any failures in this regard as a blank entry. 2. The YES bettors and the NO bettors must each choose at most 3 champions per side. The role of these champions will be threefold: to contact me to send me the official writeup of their side, to answer reasonable mathematical questions about the writeups that I pose to them, and to pick formal holes in the other side's writeup to present to me. These champions must be selected and the outcome communicated to me before 2023-09-30 at 23:59 EST. I will treat any failures in this regard as a forfeit. 3. All bettors of this market agree that my judgement will be final, binding, and at my sole discretion. [And other terms about harassing Lorxus but I, @dreev, am insuring against such and believe we don't need to worry about this. Everyone just be nice, ok??] 4. If only one such writeup is sound and mathematically correct, I will choose it as the winner. If only one side's champions can find flaws in the writeup of the other's, or only one side can resolve any flaws I point out in their writeup, I will choose it as the winner. If somehow neither writeup is sound and mathematically correct, and this difficulty persists equally for both sides through questioning, I will say so, and the market will resolve N/A, making everyone including me unhappy. If both writeups are approximately sound and mathematically correct, then I will move to cross-questioning, and I will determine the winner by subjective severity of the worst irresolvable flaw any champion can pick in either writeup. If at that point I have reached the conclusion that the question was fundamentally and irresolvably ill-posed, or both sides have found comparably good flaws, I will arbitrate that the market be resolved to 30-day average of market price. [Resolve-to-MKT is fraught and we may need to hash this out better to ensure fairness -- @Lorxus mentions "anti-spiked" MKT price? -- but I'm nearly sure it will be moot!] 5. I will communicate with all champions through the medium of their collective choice, with a Discord group chat as the default. Conditional on @dreev , at least one >2k YES holder, and at least one >2k NO holder replying to this comment to accept these terms by 2023-09-21 at 23:59 EST [which has now happened!], I will render my judgement by 2023-10-31 at 23:59 EST. Should I fail to do so, I will return the 1308 marbles to @dreev and render my judgement by 2023-12-31 at 23:59 EST. tl;dr: I got paid 1% of market volume to come Be A Mathematician at this paradox. To both YES and NO: pick <= three champions and start putting your writeups together. I'll read both, ask some probing questions, and puzzle out which side has the better (sounder/more formally correct/more philosophically compelling) arguments based on champion arguments, existing resolution criteria, and my understanding of math. Be kind to me here, because if you break this mathematician you're not getting another. Writeups (not too late to add more!): Official YES by me and Wamba Ivanhoe Official NO by Fintan Costello UNDEFINED by Trevor G NO by Martin Randall YES by Wamba Ivanhoe (before combining with mine) Bartha & Hitchcock (1999) Related markets: Two-round version via simulation (resolved to 1/36) Snibgiblets version that removes all the Bayesian math Anthropic version Ball-and-urn version that tries to be fully non-anthropic (resolved to ~1/2) Golden-brown pancakes (simple conditional probability sanity check) Snake Eyes Variant Y (what I meant this market to be) Snake Eyes Variant N (how NO bettors here interpreted this market) More: https://manifold.markets/group/snakeeyes-paradox
2023-05-13T23:25:35
2023-11-02T09:36:38
2023-11-02T09:36:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PiHqfwKs2046KUMPT0O4
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of July?
Resolution Resolves YES if on any date before August 2023, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address: Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO. For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control). Background Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and recent reporting shows Ukraine has driven back Russian forces in some areas around Bakhmut: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-forces-bakhmut-counteroffensive-prigozhin-uk-missiles-rcna83890 Resolution details Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the address specified above. Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the date of a map update will be determined based on the archived maps on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates. See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of the following, in order of precedence: https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time. Related: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/
2023-05-13T18:01:31
2023-07-31T12:53:07
2023-07-31T12:53:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vd0uaY6iIjSDRV6y4BNO
Will an OpenAI employee be publicly revealed as a spy for the Chinese government before 2025?
Either OpenAI, the goverment, or a credible media source must make a statement claiming they have identified a specific employee as a spy. The employee's identity does not need to be made public, but it must be known to individuals in OpenAI or the goverment.
2023-05-13T13:38:13
2024-12-13T23:59:00
2025-01-01T14:51:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-F3NsZIY5uWHMfqL0mOmH
Will Amazon end its hiring freeze by March 2024?
Resolves YES if Amazon has substantially resumed hiring for coporate roles (including SDE) by 2024-03-01.
2023-05-13T08:59:13
2024-03-01T14:59:00
2024-05-23T23:57:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-KPOB8NfpO0tsBetarIbM
Will the Sneako Muslim Arc end this year?
If Sneako still claims to be following the Quran by 2024, this market will resolve NO.
2023-05-12T23:56:57
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T10:36:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vYrfs0NzOk8eJ4JPNiGm
Can I get an AI to draft an email in my personal style inside an email platform during 2023?
Not having to use another site or app. Add-ons included.
2023-05-12T17:09:40
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-10T16:29:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yduWQ4G5EDmIBkm1297x
Will a deepfake video of a US political figure go viral before the 2024 US election?
If getting wide news coverage.
2023-05-12T17:07:15
2024-08-12T11:45:06
2024-08-12T11:45:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GDTxwSXy07yf77Fj7XQq
Will Linda Yaccarino become and remain CEO of Twitter for all of what's left of 2023?
On 2023 May 12, Elon Musk announced Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO of Twitter. But Elon is notably mercurial and chaotic, so anything could happen. This question tries to track that chaos by asking "Sure, Linda Yaccarino may be announced CEO right now but will that actually happen? Will she stick around?". More specifically, this question resolves YES only if (a) there is credible media reporting that Linda Yaccarino has become CEO of Twitter AND (b) the year goes on without there ever being credible media reporting that Linda has ceased to be CEO of Twitter for any length of time. It resolves NO if at any point after becoming CEO of Twitter there is credible media reporting that Linda Yaccarino is no longer CEO of Twitter. It also resolves NO if there is credible media reporting that she never actually starts a role as CEO of Twitter. Note that Elon making jokes about someone other than Linda being CEO (e.g., his dog) are not sufficient to resolve this market as YES - it must be credibly reported as fact, such as in an official legal document.
2023-05-12T16:32:17
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T03:55:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DHOY44DUvDAfgsnw1JSe
Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on May 29th?
Resolves YES if Destiny is live for longer than 6 hours on May 29th. A stream's hours that goes past midnight would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream.
2023-05-12T11:46:01
2023-05-29T21:59:00
2023-05-30T19:00:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-P5sV4PZ6Q8MWGr5ExyFr
Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on May 21st?
Resolves YES if Destiny is live for longer than 6 hours on May 21st. A stream's hours that goes past midnight would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream.
2023-05-12T11:43:38
2023-05-21T21:59:00
2023-05-22T10:58:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wh8uRbgu2H8EPJi0fvJl
Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on May 16th?
Resolves YES if Destiny is live for longer than 6 hours on May 16th. A stream's hours that goes past midnight would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream.
2023-05-12T11:40:41
2023-05-16T21:59:00
2023-05-17T05:44:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-J7RHYi5HBG2emiZnuI6L
PAW8: Fish welfare policy advocacy
[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Fish welfare policy advocacy" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention? Idea overview The goal of this charity idea is to establish a fish welfare policy advocacy organization dedicated to improving the living conditions and treatment of (mostly farmed) fish. A lot of countries still lack, or have very basic, animal protection laws for fish. By promoting evidence-based policies and regulations, the charity would address the often-overlooked suffering experienced by fish, which massive numbers are subjected to in intensive farming systems. Preventive animal welfare This year our focus is on interventions and policies that prevent future harms done to animals, as opposed to solving current problems. We will be looking for interventions that, as well as having some short run evidence of impact, will prevent future problems, i.e., have the biggest impact on farmed animals in the future, say 35 years from now. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise. About the contest In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose. You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision. For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.
2023-05-12T10:18:59
2023-07-10T13:18:12
2023-07-27T07:11:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tGgVrK93RmSNHIbFn96q
PAW7: Corporate campaigns to stop the use and sale of silk
[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Corporate campaigns to stop the use and sale of silk" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention? Idea overview This charity idea targets the silk industry by launching corporate campaigns aimed at stopping the sale and use of silk in clothing and bedding. Focusing on the ethical concerns surrounding silk production, which involves the boiling of silkworms, the charity would advocate for more humane alternatives. By engaging with companies and consumers, the organization would seek to raise awareness about the ethical implications of silk production. Its goal would be to  drive the adoption of cruelty-free, sustainable alternatives within the fashion and home goods industries. Preventive animal welfare This year our focus is on interventions and policies that prevent future harms done to animals, as opposed to solving current problems. We will be looking for interventions that, as well as having some short run evidence of impact, will prevent future problems, i.e., have the biggest impact on farmed animals in the future, say 35 years from now. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise. About the contest In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose. You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision. For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.
2023-05-12T10:18:06
2023-07-10T13:17:55
2023-07-27T07:13:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3gahxkxR5o4HeDnm3c5c
PAW5: Banning octopus (or general cephalopod) farming
[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Banning octopus (or general cephalopod) farming" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention? Idea overview This policy advocacy charity aims to introduce a ban on farming octopuses and/or other cephalopods. Although not targeting the consumption of these creatures, the charity addresses the heightened suffering experienced by farmed octopuses compared to their wild counterparts. By targeting the conditions in which they are kept, and their high consumption of other animals as feed, the charity would seek to mitigate the overall suffering caused by the system of farming these complex creatures. Preventive animal welfare This year our focus is on interventions and policies that prevent future harms done to animals, as opposed to solving current problems. We will be looking for interventions that, as well as having some short run evidence of impact, will prevent future problems, i.e., have the biggest impact on farmed animals in the future, say 35 years from now. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise. About the contest In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose. You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision. For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.
2023-05-12T10:16:14
2023-07-10T13:17:12
2023-07-27T07:11:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ETkz4Xl8rsULvT3W5IKW
PAW4: Preventing the takeoff of insect farming
[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Preventing the takeoff of insect farming" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention? Idea overview The primary objective of this charity is to thwart the rapid rise of insect farming, which is anticipated to become a major source of animal feed in agriculture. To achieve this, the charity may advocate for policies or launch corporate campaigns targeting animal farmers, discouraging them from using insects as feed. Additionally, the organization could run negative campaigns against insect usage, raising awareness about the potential consequences and promoting alternative solutions. Preventive animal welfare This year our focus is on interventions and policies that prevent future harms done to animals, as opposed to solving current problems. We will be looking for interventions that, as well as having some short run evidence of impact, will prevent future problems, i.e., have the biggest impact on farmed animals in the future, say 35 years from now. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise. About the contest In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose. You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision. For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.
2023-05-12T10:15:35
2023-07-10T13:16:57
2023-07-27T07:10:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3FYGPpEv2Rdt3lF6avYt
MEDIA10: Preventing deaths and disability from snakebites
[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Preventing deaths and disability from snakebites" as a top Mass Media intervention? Idea overview Snakebites are estimated to cause over 100,000 deaths every year, and many more cases of disability, such as paralysis or amputations. While effective antivenoms are available in many hospitals in LMICs, medical care is often sought too late for them to be effective. This organization would use mass media to help people in rural areas understand the risk of snakebites and how to prevent them, as well as the importance of seeking professional help if they do get bitten by a snake. Mass media interventions By ‘mass media’ intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise. About the contest In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose. You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision. For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.
2023-05-12T10:08:19
2023-06-04T23:59:00
2023-07-10T09:54:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rgJF4HKPKqma4wLgjKZd
MEDIA2: Using mass media to tackle violence against women
[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Using mass media to tackle violence against women" as a top Mass Media intervention? Idea overview Violence against women – especially intimate partner violence (IPV) – is highly prevalent across the world. Recent studies have shown promising results in using radio or TV edutainment shows that aim to shift viewers’ attitudes, perceived norms, and behaviors related to IPV. This organization would focus on producing and streaming such shows in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Mass media interventions By ‘mass media’ intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise. About the contest In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose. You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision. For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.
2023-05-12T09:59:17
2023-06-04T23:59:00
2023-07-10T09:47:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZpzEf4sMjaYRbQUv918T
Will Linda Yaccarino step down as the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024?
[tweet][markets]
2023-05-12T09:56:59
2025-01-01T01:35:31
2025-01-01T01:35:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-o2CITjUwHucbvUeNdGml
Will Linda Yaccarino step down as the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2023?
[tweet][markets]
2023-05-12T09:56:34
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T06:33:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0jB0vUGNhA0vkZpPlolX
Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024?
[tweet][markets]
2023-05-12T09:55:33
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T01:15:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nl3pqDvNVS7XXPYBrScp
Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2023?
[tweet][markets]
2023-05-12T09:54:09
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T20:09:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uxqAcXkagCaYoSgzFedh
Will Destiny have a talk with Tristan Tate in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-12T08:10:41
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:49:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KvvO3CBxWeu2dOVzqVZ0
After the announcement of who she is, will the twitter CEO be in the job through end of 2023?
i.e. she starts and remains as CEO through end of 2023
2023-05-12T06:43:09
2024-01-01T07:56:54
2024-01-01T07:56:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-quiVjRGIOVRbHraRXQar
Will Inter win the 2022-2023 UEFA Champions League?
The final will be played on 10 June 2023 in Istanbul. https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/
2023-05-12T05:15:47
2023-06-10T14:01:49
2023-06-10T14:01:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vx4zwJuabe0mtRlJGYwm
Will Gemini be widely considered better than GPT-4?
Resolves 3 months after Bard is switched from PaLM 2 to Gemini. (Resolves NA if it isn't switched to Gemini for some reason) Unless I'm given a very compelling reason, resolution will be based on https://github.com/FranxYao/chain-of-thought-hub Specifically - if 3 months after Gemini is released it has at least 3 scores better than GPT-4, and has at least twice as many scores better than GPT-4 than worse, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, assuming no major contention, resolves NO. If not enough benchmarks are available on this repo I will try to find something similar.
2023-05-12T04:29:45
2024-03-05T15:00:00
2024-03-05T16:05:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9WN69txY6bSfqh8juYsa
Will Claude be public by 10/1?
Open API
2023-05-11T23:08:38
2023-09-30T21:59:00
2023-10-28T18:08:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kfveWTqPkdFA5t4ifxKo
Will Claude be public during 2023?
Open API
2023-05-11T23:05:57
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T15:05:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-boOGmIHjVNMTngx5G6g9
Will the One Piece manga reach over 1100 chapters?
If the manga gets to chapter 1101, this market will resolve to YES. If the manga finishes before it reaches chapter 1101, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-05-11T21:30:55
2023-12-11T03:10:25
2023-12-11T03:10:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MwD0jEGYs4n4ZCFNly7R
Will Israeli forces enter the Gaza Strip in 2023?
Resolves with confirmation of Israeli armed forces on the ground. The forces have to be openly Israeli, so spies infiltrating Gaza don't count.
2023-05-11T21:14:40
2023-10-16T13:44:39
2023-10-16T13:44:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rOxQEAcTSD8pVlDX9VWC
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' win at least as many awards at The Game Awards as 'BotW'?
In 2017, 'Breath of the Wild' won 3 awards at The Game Awards - Game of the Year, Best Game Direction, and Best Action/Adventure. If Tears of the Kingdom wins in at least 3 categories at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If it wins in 2 or fewer, this market will resolve to NO. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards
2023-05-11T20:59:20
2023-12-07T19:55:20
2023-12-07T19:55:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yPTnuszN47qDVGccBXOX
Will the Strawhats be able to escape in Egghead?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-11T20:42:57
2024-01-31T08:59:00
2024-11-14T23:05:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RHsfT7AaTecggQoYemmq
Elon Musk announced that he has found a female successor to be the CEO of Twitter. Will this be a troll or joke?
[tweet]
2023-05-11T20:28:15
2023-05-12T10:07:48
2023-05-12T10:07:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wUONUuf3S9t4K261XQqY
Will there be a >8.93% one day drop in the S&P 500 during 2023?
The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. Since 1950, the five largest one-day drops in the S&P 500 in history were -20.4% on 1987 Sep 19, 11.98% on 2020 Mar 16, and 9.92% on 2020 Mar 12, 9.04% on 2008 Oct 15th, and 8.93% on 2008 Dec 1. Some have speculated that the ongoing debate over the US debt ceiling could result in a US default which could be catastrophic for the stock market. Additionally, it's possible that the panic in the run-up to this potential default date could result in a market downturn. To track this, this question asks will 2023 see a top five largest one-day drop in the S&P 500 as judged by data from 1950 onwards? That is specifically, will there be a >8.93% one-day drop in the S&P 500 sometime during 2023? Note that despite this question being framed as due to the US debt ceiling, this question could resolve for any reason as long as the condition is met. I will be trading on this market because it resovles by clearly objective sources. (Whereas I will not trade on any market I create if the market is subjective.)
2023-05-11T16:21:53
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T18:11:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RtlyWUhgoNNqcV1yRIzF
Will Twitter's next CEO be Linda Yaccarino? (currently head of advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal)
Elon Musk follows Linda Yaccarino on Twitter. Will she be the next CEO of Twitter?
2023-05-11T15:12:41
2023-05-30T12:55:49
2023-05-30T12:55:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BTivGZCu4SA8Z6KLmwYm
Will a Western personality announce he's in love with an AI girlfriend by the end of April 2024?
If by the end of April 2024 a personality (actor, musician, humorist, politician, journalist, athlete...) announces he has fallen in love with an AI girlfriend and it is reported by the mainstream media, this market resolves to YES. (Also works for other types of relationship. Man boyfriend, nb to a non binary friend and so on) Related markets [markets]
2023-05-11T11:02:41
2024-04-30T19:59:00
2024-04-30T20:12:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HIzEeHECOPmR98Vtfpfy
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of June?
Resolution Resolves YES if on any date before July 2023, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address: Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO. For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control). Background Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and recent reporting shows Ukraine has driven back Russian forces in some areas around Bakhmut: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-forces-bakhmut-counteroffensive-prigozhin-uk-missiles-rcna83890 Resolution details Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the address specified above. Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the date of a map update will be determined based on the archived maps on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates. See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time. Related: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/
2023-05-11T10:45:42
2023-06-30T20:59:00
2023-07-01T22:11:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-p8OWIPghkXM04YJy5AvQ
Will Yevgeniy Prigozhin be the next Russian president?
No time limit.
2023-05-11T09:55:07
2023-09-06T11:42:26
2023-09-06T11:42:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NF4pKIwArLrQdDxBwkkr
Will Dianne Feinstein complete the rest of 2023 without a medical absence/resignation?
This market will resolve as YES if by January 1 2024 Dianne Feinstein still holds her senate seat without having a medical absence, without resigning OR without dying. This market will resolve as NO if any reputable publication reports one of the following: Dianne Feinstein is on a health-related absence. Dianne Feinstein has resigned from the senate position. Dianne Feinstein has passed away. Her current term is slated to end on Jan 3 2025.
2023-05-11T05:36:28
2023-09-29T07:05:54
2023-09-29T07:05:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SGvoKIt55h7V7AYjrjZD
Will Destiny go on Fresh & Fit again by the end of July?
He last went on the show on 5/10/23.
2023-05-10T23:50:14
2023-05-21T11:42:12
2023-05-21T11:42:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0ba0dE1bEacXILBCGlkF
Will Destiny talk to Sneako again in May?
Their last convo was on 5/10/23. [markets]
2023-05-10T22:57:27
2023-06-01T03:39:40
2023-06-01T03:39:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AfvoOIz0mJM6v93QhuQa
Will Shadow and Bone be renewed for season 3?
if it doesn't i'm gonna scream
2023-05-10T21:19:46
2023-11-25T01:08:04
2023-11-25T01:08:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Sgyqkg8H8qbjOM9BIdot
By the two-year anniversary of its release, will Kerbal Space Program 2 have more active players than KSP 1?
Kerbal Space Program 2 launched into early access on 24th February 2023. However, so far the game has recieved mixed reviews because it launched in a very buggy state, missing features that are already present in the original Kerbal Space Program. Currently, the active playerbase of KSP 1 as reported by SteamDB is much higher than for KSP 2: [image][image]But, as KSP recieves ongoing patches, updates, and expansions, maybe this situation will turn around! Will KSP 2 have a larger active playerbase during early 2025, almost two years after the game's initial early-access release? To resolve this market, I will consult this SteamDB comparision chart which graphs the active playerbases of both games. If KSP 2 has more active players than KSP 1 for the majority of datapoints in the 30 days preceeding Feb 24, 2025, then this market will resolve "YES".
2023-05-10T15:42:14
2025-02-24T22:59:00
2025-02-24T23:28:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yURWlqz2jUrr63bj8sx5
Will US inflation be above 3.4% in June 2023?
Will year-on-year inflation exceed 3.4%? Resolves YES if CPI-U is above 306.385 in the June 2023 release (to be released July 12th)
2023-05-10T14:48:10
2023-07-12T05:32:28
2023-07-12T05:32:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-u3L8Ydxlm23GewFJT8m7
Will OpenAI release an official ChatGPT Android native app by EOY 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-10T14:20:03
2023-12-25T02:25:19
2023-12-25T02:25:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IjkPZGkkwcWXK9Ds7K0K
Will George Santos be convicted on felony charges before Jan 3, 2025?
Resolves YES if George Santos (R-NY) is convicted on felony charges before January 3, 2025 (the end of the current Congressional term), otherwise NO. Background: https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/george-santos-charged-justice-department/index.html Santos, whose astonishing pattern of lies and fabrications stunned even hardened politicos, has been charged on a 13-count indictment, including seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, one count of theft of public funds, and two counts of making materially false statements to the House of Representatives. Resolution details: A guilty plea is a conviction. Includes federal or state charges. The date of sentencing does not matter for this question. Appeals do not matter for this question - if he is convicted in trial court, that counts even if appeals continue, and even if the conviction is overturned on appeal.
2023-05-10T08:50:06
2024-08-19T16:21:19
2024-08-19T16:21:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JheGeWqVSt2qMLk3Ojti
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 40 seats at the next UK general election?
Resolves to YES if the Liberal Democrats win 40 or more seats in the House of Commons at the next UK general election. Candidates suspended from the party still count as long as they appear as "Liberal Democrats" on the ballot paper (like Neale Hanvey in 2019). At the last general election in 2019, the Liberal Democrats won just 11 seats, despite coming third in terms of vote share with 11.6% of the vote. However, strong performances in local elections and by-elections has led to speculation that the party will make big gains at the next general election.
2023-05-10T04:06:45
2024-07-05T00:49:39
2024-07-05T00:49:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BhrUwXTOBSSd9FltP1b4
Will Xi Jinping visit London and meet with King Charles by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-10T03:41:20
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:44:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-06Cy2oS6VIXqHWsFuCjD
Will the next UK general election result in a hung parliament?
IE no overall majority
2023-05-10T02:24:23
2024-07-15T02:45:36
2024-07-15T02:45:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xSncmaJZsuAfZIhMK8pH
Will the Writers Guild of America's Hollywood strike be over by the end of August?
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/pUM0-D5uAx8)[markets]
2023-05-10T01:29:10
2023-08-31T23:59:00
2023-09-06T19:38:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qktEY7JKMH6g42Z3IuUg
After the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive begins (6.8), will Russia withdraw from Bakhmut within one month (7.8)?
I am not going to set up exact criteria for what counts as a Russian presence within Bakhmut. This question is trying to capture whether the Russian position there will collapse totally, which is a way of measuring whether a) the Ukrainian counteroffensive thrusts in that direction, and b) is successful. On credible news reports that a significant Ukrainian offensive has started, I will start a 30 day clock, backdated to my best attempt at pinning the start time of the offensive. At the end of this clock, if Russia is still contesting Bakhmut, this will resolve NO. If there are no Russian forces in Bakhmut or attacking Bakhmut, this will resolve YES. June 8, 5pm Kviv time is the moment Manifold decided the counteroffensive had truly started. Given a paucity of other data I'm setting the clock to have started at 5am June 8th https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-will-ukraine-launch-a-larg?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz
2023-05-10T00:33:05
2023-07-07T19:00:00
2023-07-07T19:13:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ibnxQrZ6B710NCsbVfuQ
After the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive begins (6.8), will Russia withdraw from Bakhmut within two weeks (6.22)?
I am not going to set up exact criteria for what counts as a Russian presence within Bakhmut. This question is trying to capture whether the Russian position there will collapse totally, which is a way of measuring whether a) the Ukrainian counteroffensive thrusts in that direction, and b) is successful. On credible news reports that a significant Ukrainian offensive has started, I will start a 14 day clock, backdated to my best attempt at pinning the start time of the offensive. At the end of this clock, if Russia is still contesting Bakhmut, this will resolve NO. If there are no Russian forces in Bakhmut or attacking Bakhmut, this will resolve YES. June 8, 5pm Kviv time is the moment Manifold decided the counteroffensive had truly started. Given a paucity of other data I'm setting the clock to have started at 5am June 8th https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-will-ukraine-launch-a-larg?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2V
2023-05-09T22:59:50
2023-06-21T19:00:00
2023-06-21T20:40:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2iNYI0G1dclljcX3H3dV
Will Destiny talk to Jidion again by the end of May?
Most recent convo was on 5/9/23. [markets]
2023-05-09T22:07:52
2023-06-01T03:40:33
2023-06-01T03:40:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w9P56q1eOOeuG4cy6YCL
Will Israel win Eurovision 2023? 🇮🇱
Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023. Resolves NO if Israel does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur.
2023-05-09T18:34:59
2023-05-13T16:37:20
2023-05-13T16:37:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PISlxQHsu6jwLwtdjZDX
Will Twitter and Spotify merge by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-09T18:29:06
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:43:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ATkEOn1HEnTBGfWH6FgS
Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16792/ukraine-controls-znpp-by-december-2023/ The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has requested Russia to relinquish control over the plant, a request that so far Russia has refused. Ukraine has also made attempts to recapture the plant by force, which so far have failed.
2023-05-09T16:16:38
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-01T07:15:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AjcyKfJSyzh9zMzJgPjf
Will Real Madrid beat Manchester City in the UCL semifinals, second leg match?
Real wins = YES City wins = NO Draw = NO Match postponed = close date changes Match canceled = N/A Retrospective win decision altered = no change to resolution
2023-05-09T12:49:46
2023-05-17T14:00:36
2023-05-17T14:00:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zgM7bhjPCp1taFLtyjpZ
Will Trump successfully appeal the verdict in Carroll v. Trump?
"Successfully" means a new trial that rules in his favor, doing anything that measurably reduces the damages or liability. The battery charge being removed entirely would also count. Some context: https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3996111-trump-says-he-will-appeal-e-jean-carroll-case-over-unconstitutional-silencing/
2023-05-09T12:33:54
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:46:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mXtA4DMuY8xWxOYCkkJp
Will Xi Jinping visit the Mar-a-lago by the end of 2024?
Xi has been there once before during Trump's first term. [markets]
2023-05-09T12:16:29
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:43:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HXUbQs1LvwvgKoGmaDkx
Will Joe Biden visit Xi in Zhongnanhai by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-09T12:14:53
2024-12-31T12:28:45
2024-12-31T12:28:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n6JWwdTbTGqW34pXbuyh
Will Xi Jinping visit the White House by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-09T12:14:01
2024-12-31T13:49:57
2024-12-31T13:49:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8KYvQOQMawVikl7Xm8a5
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2024?
If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2024, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.
2023-05-09T10:28:09
2023-12-31T04:01:55
2023-12-31T04:01:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NXgARdD3G9DlGhXzP4K4
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025?
If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2025, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES. If AI has not wiped out humanity by then, we have the related questions where LeCun or Tegmark battle to defeat the AI: (https://manifold.markets/embed/TeddyWeverka/will-yann-lecun-have-a-cameo-role-s)(https://manifold.markets/embed/TeddyWeverka/will-max-tegmark-have-a-cameo-role)
2023-05-09T10:27:55
2024-12-31T07:24:15
2024-12-31T07:24:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-R5KmNzYVNOp6JB8awVaU
Will Russia field Chinese main battle tanks in Ukraine before 2025?
There is growing speculation that Russia is running low on its huge stocks of Soviet era tanks. There is also speculation that the Russian economy will be unable to generate replacements. If so, China would be virtually the only option for Russia to acquire new tanks. Obviously, in geopolitical terms it would be a major step for China to do this, and it would be impossble to conceal the fact they had done so. For the purposes of this question, the Al-Khalid/MBT-2000 counts as a Chinese tank. Resolves YES on conclusive photographic evidence.
2023-05-09T05:18:11
2025-01-01T07:59:00
2025-01-03T03:38:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XNGaBqOeAdhAOA2ujKkK
Will Biden use the 14th amendment to raise the debt ceiling without reaching a deal with the GOP?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-09T03:51:13
2023-06-05T08:16:38
2023-06-05T08:16:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cVMkKIhX203eryDygIBP
Will Erling Haaland score another hattrick before the 22-23 season ends?
Has to be a compeitive game.
2023-05-09T01:56:10
2023-06-10T15:46:47
2023-06-10T15:46:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w8Axni4eMBky1Mg0IxIL
Will the UK outright maximum temperature record be broken in 2023?
Last year, on the 19th July 2022, a new UK temperature record of 40.3 °C was set in Coningsby, Lincolnshire; 1.6°C higher than the previous record from 2019. Will this record be broken in 2023?
2023-05-09T01:46:06
2023-09-30T15:59:00
2023-09-30T20:30:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KTsOVC8Ma7NSMgJEY2qv
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2024?
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024. The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/). This market will be resolved as YES if there are 10 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2024 in the column "Closing Date". This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met. This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are fewer than 10 records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List". My markets about number of failed US banks: 2023: >= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20 2024: >= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2 >= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545 >= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d >= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a >= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2 >= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b >= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details: The market is being resolved as NO based on current data, which shows only 2 records for 2024 on the "Failed Bank List".
2023-05-09T00:52:04
2025-01-04T08:09:56
2025-01-04T08:09:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4SDkK6g7WhF0lDuMM8VE
Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2024?
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024. The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/). This market will be resolved as YES if there are 7 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2024 in the column "Closing Date". This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met. This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are fewer than 7 records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List". My markets about number of failed US banks: 2023: >= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20 2024: >= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2 >= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545 >= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d >= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a >= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2 >= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b >= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
2023-05-09T00:51:50
2025-01-04T08:05:57
2025-01-04T08:05:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-a8pnJl7lpMkjGE3mb1qg
Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2024?
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024. The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/). This market will be resolved as YES if there are 1 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2024 in the column "Closing Date". This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met. This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2025, there are no records with a "Closing Date" in 2024 on the "Failed Bank List". My markets about number of failed US banks: 2023: >= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20 2024: >= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202 >= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2 >= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545 >= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d >= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a >= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2 >= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b >= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
2023-05-09T00:42:11
2024-04-27T00:10:56
2024-04-27T00:10:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-KI6nAxzCEaKmlod8IvSO
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on Memorial Day?
Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on May 29, 2023. Resolves YES even if Jimmy Carter passes away on that day.
2023-05-08T19:19:15
2023-05-29T20:59:00
2023-05-30T05:37:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lTOt4m6wayZncvxA8zbW
Will 'Oppenheimer' get nominations in more than three Oscars categories at the 96th Academy Awards?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film) Nominations in 4 or more categories = YES Nominations in 3 or fewer categories = NO
2023-05-08T17:45:22
2024-01-23T08:38:02
2024-01-23T08:38:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Y3EH480TYMWmUBN9JePo
Will 'Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One' be nominated for any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission:_Impossible_%E2%80%93_Dead_Reckoning_Part_One If the movie is delayed such that its Oscar-qualifying run makes it eligible for the 97th Academy Awards (the ceremony for movies released in 2024) rather than the 96th Academy Awards (the ceremony for movies released in 2023), this market will resolve to NO.
2023-05-08T17:33:42
2024-01-23T08:28:22
2024-01-23T08:28:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zuDtHyo55r9wAIXHOwXl
Will 'Barbie' be nominated for any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbie_(film) If the movie is delayed such that its Oscar-qualifying run makes it eligible for the 97th Academy Awards (the ceremony for movies released in 2024) rather than the 96th Academy Awards (the ceremony for movies released in 2023), this market will resolve to NO.
2023-05-08T17:30:33
2024-01-23T08:25:40
2024-01-23T08:25:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BfRAdvRtFayaI3ZqRUYQ
Will 'Wonka' be nominated for any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonka_(film) If the movie is delayed such that its Oscar-qualifying run makes it eligible for the 97th Academy Awards rather than the 96th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-05-08T17:24:54
2024-01-23T08:30:47
2024-01-23T08:30:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OhRFcaa6ofkziIvbom3m
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) gross more than $575 million domestically before 2024?
The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/ If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $575 million, this market will resolve to "YES" This market will resolve to "NO" if once the December 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized it hasn't reached $575 million, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point.
2023-05-08T13:53:33
2024-01-01T05:11:50
2024-01-01T05:11:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-50f6jXD89XTL0DU8ZdaZ
Will prince William and Kate announce another pregnancy in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-08T13:16:42
2023-12-30T15:59:00
2024-01-01T01:16:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SaYAfc0m7RagwgaeapFJ
Will Trump win 2024 elections?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-05-08T12:42:34
2024-11-06T15:33:32
2024-11-06T15:33:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7hCoHFEBe1tYOEB93Ul3
Will there be a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in 2023?
Counts as any event which results in unsafe levels of radiation leaking from the plant. Can clarify definitions in comments.
2023-05-08T05:37:56
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T22:42:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oUFyh43rPF1lLRMcIgW8
Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)?
At the 2019 general election, the Liberal Democrats won 11 seats, coming fourth behind the Conservatives (on 365 seats), Labour (202), and the SNP (48). This market resolves to YES if the party comes third at the next general election (in terms of seats, not votes). Candidates elected as Liberal Democrats still count if they have been suspended from the party (like Neale Hanvey in 2019). If there is a tie for third place, the market will resolve to PROB (if two parties are tied for third, this resolves to 50%, if three are tied for third, this resolves to 33%, and so on).
2023-05-08T05:30:32
2024-07-05T00:48:30
2024-07-05T00:48:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7Vqaz8Wp2vd9DhxSASCj
Will the S&P 500 increase more than Nasdaq Composite in (any one month) May, June, or July 2023?
Will the S&P 500 increase more or decrease less than the Nasdaq Composite from open to close in May, June, or July 2023 (any one month)? Open to close means from open on the first trading day in a month to close on the last trading day in the same month. SPX 5/1 O 4166.79 5/31 C 4179.83 +0.312950737% 6/1 O 4183.03 6/30 C 4450.38 +6.391300086% 7/3 O 4449.45 7/31 C 4588.96 +3.1354437% IXIC 5/1 O 12210.05 5/31 C 12935.29 +5.939697217% 6/1 O 12944.46 6/30 C 13787.92 +6.51599217% 7/3 O 13798.70 7/31 C 14346.02 +3.966460609% S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) increases in February – April 2023: SPX: −2.455%, 3.683%, 1.090% IXIC: −1.016%, 6.764%, 0.305% https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/COMP/historical-prices
2023-05-08T00:43:09
2023-08-01T09:00:00
2023-08-01T11:53:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UnfJlDfidSLhgt7P8wV0
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race
2023-05-07T21:16:56
2023-05-28T09:18:42
2023-05-28T09:18:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LDSPbKyHTTc9OEdWTtbZ
Will 'Asteroid City', directed by Wes Anderson, be nominated for any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_City
2023-05-07T19:30:59
2024-01-23T08:31:11
2024-01-23T08:31:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MzaaLfe0pSwM71L7KgcN
Will Minecraft be searched more in the US than Roblox at the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if: The volume of searches in the United States for the term "Minecraft" exceeds the volume of searches for the term "Roblox" on Google Trends, using the "past day" filter on Dec 31 2023, 11:59 PM GMT. (average shown on the left) Resolves N/A if: Google Trends is down at the close date, and doesn't return within a week, or returns without the data from Dec 31, 2023. Otherwise, resolves NO. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&geo=US&q=Roblox,Minecraft&hl=en
2023-05-07T18:15:59
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T08:10:44
no
MANIFOLD