id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-ejRfWlx2Z2c7xbTAqyUb | Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Penny Mordaunt? | Resolves to YES if the next leader of the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak is Penny Mordaunt. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, it still counts; if the party dissolves or ceases to exist, this will resolve N/A. I will extend the close date if necessary. | 2023-05-15T10:19:56 | 2024-08-16T00:01:09 | 2024-08-16T00:01:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w8dxOG0spM6qe4xOEaum | Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Kemi Badenoch? | Resolves to YES if the next leader of the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak is Kemi Badenoch. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, it still counts; if the party dissolves or ceases to exist, this will resolve N/A. I will extend the close date if necessary. | 2023-05-15T10:19:54 | 2024-11-02T09:47:02 | 2024-11-02T09:47:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RInzajdeFOjvP66VlToz | Will U.S. inflation fall to 4.4% or less in May 2023? | U.S. inflation from December 2022 to April 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%.
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in CPI in the U.S. fall from April 2023 (4.9%) to 4.4% or less in May 2023 (4.0%)? | 2023-05-15T01:40:43 | 2023-06-13T05:35:29 | 2023-06-13T05:35:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GXkZ1kYYVJb4zI2SetIV | Will Lukashenko still be alive at the end of 2023? | Will Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko still be alive on Dec 31, 2023? | 2023-05-14T20:47:25 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:53:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2jfpnPFb8ARKRMO9GGlb | Will Klay Thompson be on the Golden State Warriors to start the 2023-24 NBA season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-14T17:52:18 | 2023-10-23T23:59:00 | 2023-10-26T03:46:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SUjNlZ7SIpIegw8NCMWw | Will Chris Hipkins be the New Zealand Prime Minister on 1 December 2023 | The New Zealand election is being held on 14 October 2023 with the official results being returned on 3 November.
Chris Hipkins is the current Prime Minister and leader of the incumbent Labour Party.
The nature of the New Zealand political system makes it less conclusive that there will be a determined result for t... | 2023-05-14T15:13:43 | 2023-12-06T22:35:35 | 2023-12-06T22:35:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v5KOnYSor4JPxjjueNDv | Will the #2 Boston Celtics defeat the #8 Miami Heat in Game 7 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-14T15:08:13 | 2023-05-29T19:43:47 | 2023-05-29T19:43:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ExnULOc9tyWcz6vohnv7 | Will the #2 Boston Celtics defeat the #8 Miami Heat in the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Series long bet. | 2023-05-14T15:07:04 | 2023-05-29T19:44:35 | 2023-05-29T19:44:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NZp2HTR4YPab2uzRFXcA | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be imprisoned or deceased by end of August? | Yes = he is publicly known to be imprisoned (in Russia, or any other place), or to be deceased - or it can be inferred as very likely from public sources
No = not the case
I might resolve Prob if it's some unclear in-between situation, a-la Kim Jong-Il in the last months of his stay on this Earth, blessed be his nam... | 2023-05-14T12:29:28 | 2023-08-31T23:59:00 | 2023-09-01T00:14:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qdOwPW0oobKDnAL743iw | Will Erdogan get the most votes in the first round of the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Background: On May 14th, 2023, the first round of the Turkish presidential election will be held. A second round will be held if no candidate reaches 50% of the votes.
Will Erdogan get a plurality of the votes in the first presidential election, as determined by the Supreme Election Council?
This could mean outright ... | 2023-05-14T12:09:32 | 2023-05-14T19:53:23 | 2023-05-14T19:53:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NwljXphGb0MMCGuInKuq | Will Trump and Biden have three debates? | >= | 2023-05-14T10:57:16 | 2024-11-04T13:26:52 | 2024-11-04T13:26:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CdfNoMy6nHb9U5hyVbjv | Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Western Conference Finals against the #7 LA Lakers? | This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games). Since each game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
Additional Markets:
[markets][markets] | 2023-05-14T10:09:19 | 2023-05-22T20:16:11 | 2023-05-22T20:18:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-btpGCg7XBR9sFL30xcWV | Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Western Conference Finals against the #7 LA Lakers? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547684
Additional Markets:
[markets][markets] | 2023-05-14T10:00:39 | 2023-05-22T20:15:53 | 2023-05-22T20:19:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1BXqKNLwjFFaGYILDTWv | Will Destiny talk to Aella by the end of May? | [markets] | 2023-05-14T05:30:41 | 2023-06-01T03:38:57 | 2023-06-01T03:38:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VlaNcG4nP3rcatElgpjI | Will Destiny talk to FD Signifier in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-05-14T05:26:09 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:08:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LJhRwnqEBX7Tdh7VlwU8 | Will there be a software security incident caused by the new .zip TLD before the end of 2024? | https://twitter.com/Google/status/1653866291692728320?s=20
People in the replies are very concerned about the security implications of the new TLD.
The .zip domain must be an important part of the incident. For example, if some malware happens to ring home via an "internal" .zip domain, that doesn't count. If a use... | 2023-05-14T02:09:18 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-05T16:09:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hFG0ibiUhMLi7DbA0DLv | Will at least 6 new nuclear power plants connect to the grid in 2023? | Data source used to resolve this market: https://pris.iaea.org/pris/home.aspx
̶C̶u̶r̶r̶e̶n̶t̶l̶y̶ As of market creation,3 plants have been connected
YES = if 3 more are connected by the end of this year. | 2023-05-14T01:51:22 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-04T17:12:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj | Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36? | You're offered a gamble where a pair of six-sided dice are rolled and unless they come up snake eyes you get a bajillion dollars. If they do come up snake eyes, you're devoured by snakes.
So far it sounds like you have a 1/36 chance of dying, right?
Now the twist. First, I gather up an unlimited number of people will... | 2023-05-13T23:25:35 | 2023-11-02T09:36:38 | 2023-11-02T09:36:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PiHqfwKs2046KUMPT0O4 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of July? | Resolution
Resolves YES if on any date before August 2023, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address:
Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500
according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO.
F... | 2023-05-13T18:01:31 | 2023-07-31T12:53:07 | 2023-07-31T12:53:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vd0uaY6iIjSDRV6y4BNO | Will an OpenAI employee be publicly revealed as a spy for the Chinese government before 2025? | Either OpenAI, the goverment, or a credible media source must make a statement claiming they have identified a specific employee as a spy. The employee's identity does not need to be made public, but it must be known to individuals in OpenAI or the goverment. | 2023-05-13T13:38:13 | 2024-12-13T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:51:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-F3NsZIY5uWHMfqL0mOmH | Will Amazon end its hiring freeze by March 2024? | Resolves YES if Amazon has substantially resumed hiring for coporate roles (including SDE) by 2024-03-01. | 2023-05-13T08:59:13 | 2024-03-01T14:59:00 | 2024-05-23T23:57:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KPOB8NfpO0tsBetarIbM | Will the Sneako Muslim Arc end this year? | If Sneako still claims to be following the Quran by 2024, this market will resolve NO. | 2023-05-12T23:56:57 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:36:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vYrfs0NzOk8eJ4JPNiGm | Can I get an AI to draft an email in my personal style inside an email platform during 2023? | Not having to use another site or app. Add-ons included. | 2023-05-12T17:09:40 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-10T16:29:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yduWQ4G5EDmIBkm1297x | Will a deepfake video of a US political figure go viral before the 2024 US election? | If getting wide news coverage. | 2023-05-12T17:07:15 | 2024-08-12T11:45:06 | 2024-08-12T11:45:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GDTxwSXy07yf77Fj7XQq | Will Linda Yaccarino become and remain CEO of Twitter for all of what's left of 2023? | On 2023 May 12, Elon Musk announced Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO of Twitter. But Elon is notably mercurial and chaotic, so anything could happen. This question tries to track that chaos by asking "Sure, Linda Yaccarino may be announced CEO right now but will that actually happen? Will she stick around?".
More specif... | 2023-05-12T16:32:17 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T03:55:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DHOY44DUvDAfgsnw1JSe | Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on May 29th? | Resolves YES if Destiny is live for longer than 6 hours on May 29th. A stream's hours that goes past midnight would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream. | 2023-05-12T11:46:01 | 2023-05-29T21:59:00 | 2023-05-30T19:00:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P5sV4PZ6Q8MWGr5ExyFr | Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on May 21st? | Resolves YES if Destiny is live for longer than 6 hours on May 21st. A stream's hours that goes past midnight would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream. | 2023-05-12T11:43:38 | 2023-05-21T21:59:00 | 2023-05-22T10:58:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wh8uRbgu2H8EPJi0fvJl | Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on May 16th? | Resolves YES if Destiny is live for longer than 6 hours on May 16th. A stream's hours that goes past midnight would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream. | 2023-05-12T11:40:41 | 2023-05-16T21:59:00 | 2023-05-17T05:44:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J7RHYi5HBG2emiZnuI6L | PAW8: Fish welfare policy advocacy | [image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Fish welfare policy advocacy" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention?
Idea overview
The goal of this charity idea is to establish a fish welfare policy advocacy organization dedicated to improving the living conditions and t... | 2023-05-12T10:18:59 | 2023-07-10T13:18:12 | 2023-07-27T07:11:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tGgVrK93RmSNHIbFn96q | PAW7: Corporate campaigns to stop the use and sale of silk | [image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Corporate campaigns to stop the use and sale of silk" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention?
Idea overview
This charity idea targets the silk industry by launching corporate campaigns aimed at stopping the sale and use of s... | 2023-05-12T10:18:06 | 2023-07-10T13:17:55 | 2023-07-27T07:13:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3gahxkxR5o4HeDnm3c5c | PAW5: Banning octopus (or general cephalopod) farming | [image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Banning octopus (or general cephalopod) farming" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention?
Idea overview
This policy advocacy charity aims to introduce a ban on farming octopuses and/or other cephalopods. Although not targetin... | 2023-05-12T10:16:14 | 2023-07-10T13:17:12 | 2023-07-27T07:11:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ETkz4Xl8rsULvT3W5IKW | PAW4: Preventing the takeoff of insect farming | [image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Preventing the takeoff of insect farming" as a top Preventive Animal Welfare intervention?
Idea overview
The primary objective of this charity is to thwart the rapid rise of insect farming, which is anticipated to become a major sour... | 2023-05-12T10:15:35 | 2023-07-10T13:16:57 | 2023-07-27T07:10:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3FYGPpEv2Rdt3lF6avYt | MEDIA10: Preventing deaths and disability from snakebites | [image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Preventing deaths and disability from snakebites" as a top Mass Media intervention?
Idea overview
Snakebites are estimated to cause over 100,000 deaths every year, and many more cases of disability, such as paralysis or amputations. ... | 2023-05-12T10:08:19 | 2023-06-04T23:59:00 | 2023-07-10T09:54:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rgJF4HKPKqma4wLgjKZd | MEDIA2: Using mass media to tackle violence against women | [image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Using mass media to tackle violence against women" as a top Mass Media intervention?
Idea overview
Violence against women – especially intimate partner violence (IPV) – is highly prevalent across the world. Recent studies have shown ... | 2023-05-12T09:59:17 | 2023-06-04T23:59:00 | 2023-07-10T09:47:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZpzEf4sMjaYRbQUv918T | Will Linda Yaccarino step down as the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-05-12T09:56:59 | 2025-01-01T01:35:31 | 2025-01-01T01:35:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o2CITjUwHucbvUeNdGml | Will Linda Yaccarino step down as the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2023? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-05-12T09:56:34 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:33:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0jB0vUGNhA0vkZpPlolX | Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-05-12T09:55:33 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:15:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nl3pqDvNVS7XXPYBrScp | Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2023? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-05-12T09:54:09 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T20:09:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uxqAcXkagCaYoSgzFedh | Will Destiny have a talk with Tristan Tate in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-12T08:10:41 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:49:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KvvO3CBxWeu2dOVzqVZ0 | After the announcement of who she is, will the twitter CEO be in the job through end of 2023? | i.e. she starts and remains as CEO through end of 2023 | 2023-05-12T06:43:09 | 2024-01-01T07:56:54 | 2024-01-01T07:56:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-quiVjRGIOVRbHraRXQar | Will Inter win the 2022-2023 UEFA Champions League? | The final will be played on 10 June 2023 in Istanbul.
https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/ | 2023-05-12T05:15:47 | 2023-06-10T14:01:49 | 2023-06-10T14:01:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vx4zwJuabe0mtRlJGYwm | Will Gemini be widely considered better than GPT-4? | Resolves 3 months after Bard is switched from PaLM 2 to Gemini. (Resolves NA if it isn't switched to Gemini for some reason)
Unless I'm given a very compelling reason, resolution will be based on https://github.com/FranxYao/chain-of-thought-hub
Specifically - if 3 months after Gemini is released it has at least 3 sc... | 2023-05-12T04:29:45 | 2024-03-05T15:00:00 | 2024-03-05T16:05:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9WN69txY6bSfqh8juYsa | Will Claude be public by 10/1? | Open API | 2023-05-11T23:08:38 | 2023-09-30T21:59:00 | 2023-10-28T18:08:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kfveWTqPkdFA5t4ifxKo | Will Claude be public during 2023? | Open API | 2023-05-11T23:05:57 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:05:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-boOGmIHjVNMTngx5G6g9 | Will the One Piece manga reach over 1100 chapters? | If the manga gets to chapter 1101, this market will resolve to YES.
If the manga finishes before it reaches chapter 1101, this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-05-11T21:30:55 | 2023-12-11T03:10:25 | 2023-12-11T03:10:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MwD0jEGYs4n4ZCFNly7R | Will Israeli forces enter the Gaza Strip in 2023? | Resolves with confirmation of Israeli armed forces on the ground. The forces have to be openly Israeli, so spies infiltrating Gaza don't count. | 2023-05-11T21:14:40 | 2023-10-16T13:44:39 | 2023-10-16T13:44:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rOxQEAcTSD8pVlDX9VWC | Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' win at least as many awards at The Game Awards as 'BotW'? | In 2017, 'Breath of the Wild' won 3 awards at The Game Awards - Game of the Year, Best Game Direction, and Best Action/Adventure.
If Tears of the Kingdom wins in at least 3 categories at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If it wins in 2 or fewer, this market will resolve to NO.
https://en.wikiped... | 2023-05-11T20:59:20 | 2023-12-07T19:55:20 | 2023-12-07T19:55:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yPTnuszN47qDVGccBXOX | Will the Strawhats be able to escape in Egghead? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-11T20:42:57 | 2024-01-31T08:59:00 | 2024-11-14T23:05:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RHsfT7AaTecggQoYemmq | Elon Musk announced that he has found a female successor to be the CEO of Twitter. Will this be a troll or joke? | [tweet] | 2023-05-11T20:28:15 | 2023-05-12T10:07:48 | 2023-05-12T10:07:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wUONUuf3S9t4K261XQqY | Will there be a >8.93% one day drop in the S&P 500 during 2023? | The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices.
Since 1950, the five largest one-day drops in the S&P 500 in history were -2... | 2023-05-11T16:21:53 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T18:11:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RtlyWUhgoNNqcV1yRIzF | Will Twitter's next CEO be Linda Yaccarino? (currently head of advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal) | Elon Musk follows Linda Yaccarino on Twitter. Will she be the next CEO of Twitter? | 2023-05-11T15:12:41 | 2023-05-30T12:55:49 | 2023-05-30T12:55:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BTivGZCu4SA8Z6KLmwYm | Will a Western personality announce he's in love with an AI girlfriend by the end of April 2024? | If by the end of April 2024 a personality (actor, musician, humorist, politician, journalist, athlete...) announces he has fallen in love with an AI girlfriend and it is reported by the mainstream media, this market resolves to YES. (Also works for other types of relationship. Man boyfriend, nb to a non binary friend a... | 2023-05-11T11:02:41 | 2024-04-30T19:59:00 | 2024-04-30T20:12:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HIzEeHECOPmR98Vtfpfy | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of June? | Resolution
Resolves YES if on any date before July 2023, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address:
Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500
according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO.
For... | 2023-05-11T10:45:42 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-07-01T22:11:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p8OWIPghkXM04YJy5AvQ | Will Yevgeniy Prigozhin be the next Russian president? | No time limit. | 2023-05-11T09:55:07 | 2023-09-06T11:42:26 | 2023-09-06T11:42:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NF4pKIwArLrQdDxBwkkr | Will Dianne Feinstein complete the rest of 2023 without a medical absence/resignation? | This market will resolve as YES if by January 1 2024 Dianne Feinstein still holds her senate seat without having a medical absence, without resigning OR without dying.
This market will resolve as NO if any reputable publication reports one of the following:
Dianne Feinstein is on a health-related absence.
Dianne Fei... | 2023-05-11T05:36:28 | 2023-09-29T07:05:54 | 2023-09-29T07:05:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SGvoKIt55h7V7AYjrjZD | Will Destiny go on Fresh & Fit again by the end of July? | He last went on the show on 5/10/23. | 2023-05-10T23:50:14 | 2023-05-21T11:42:12 | 2023-05-21T11:42:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0ba0dE1bEacXILBCGlkF | Will Destiny talk to Sneako again in May? | Their last convo was on 5/10/23.
[markets] | 2023-05-10T22:57:27 | 2023-06-01T03:39:40 | 2023-06-01T03:39:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AfvoOIz0mJM6v93QhuQa | Will Shadow and Bone be renewed for season 3? | if it doesn't i'm gonna scream | 2023-05-10T21:19:46 | 2023-11-25T01:08:04 | 2023-11-25T01:08:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sgyqkg8H8qbjOM9BIdot | By the two-year anniversary of its release, will Kerbal Space Program 2 have more active players than KSP 1? | Kerbal Space Program 2 launched into early access on 24th February 2023. However, so far the game has recieved mixed reviews because it launched in a very buggy state, missing features that are already present in the original Kerbal Space Program. Currently, the active playerbase of KSP 1 as reported by SteamDB is muc... | 2023-05-10T15:42:14 | 2025-02-24T22:59:00 | 2025-02-24T23:28:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yURWlqz2jUrr63bj8sx5 | Will US inflation be above 3.4% in June 2023? | Will year-on-year inflation exceed 3.4%?
Resolves YES if CPI-U is above 306.385 in the June 2023 release (to be released July 12th) | 2023-05-10T14:48:10 | 2023-07-12T05:32:28 | 2023-07-12T05:32:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u3L8Ydxlm23GewFJT8m7 | Will OpenAI release an official ChatGPT Android native app by EOY 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-10T14:20:03 | 2023-12-25T02:25:19 | 2023-12-25T02:25:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IjkPZGkkwcWXK9Ds7K0K | Will George Santos be convicted on felony charges before Jan 3, 2025? | Resolves YES if George Santos (R-NY) is convicted on felony charges before January 3, 2025 (the end of the current Congressional term), otherwise NO.
Background: https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/george-santos-charged-justice-department/index.html
Santos, whose astonishing pattern of lies and fabrications stunn... | 2023-05-10T08:50:06 | 2024-08-19T16:21:19 | 2024-08-19T16:21:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JheGeWqVSt2qMLk3Ojti | Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 40 seats at the next UK general election? | Resolves to YES if the Liberal Democrats win 40 or more seats in the House of Commons at the next UK general election. Candidates suspended from the party still count as long as they appear as "Liberal Democrats" on the ballot paper (like Neale Hanvey in 2019).
At the last general election in 2019, the Liberal Democra... | 2023-05-10T04:06:45 | 2024-07-05T00:49:39 | 2024-07-05T00:49:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BhrUwXTOBSSd9FltP1b4 | Will Xi Jinping visit London and meet with King Charles by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-10T03:41:20 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:44:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-06Cy2oS6VIXqHWsFuCjD | Will the next UK general election result in a hung parliament? | IE no overall majority | 2023-05-10T02:24:23 | 2024-07-15T02:45:36 | 2024-07-15T02:45:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xSncmaJZsuAfZIhMK8pH | Will the Writers Guild of America's Hollywood strike be over by the end of August? | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/pUM0-D5uAx8)[markets] | 2023-05-10T01:29:10 | 2023-08-31T23:59:00 | 2023-09-06T19:38:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qktEY7JKMH6g42Z3IuUg | After the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive begins (6.8), will Russia withdraw from Bakhmut within one month (7.8)? | I am not going to set up exact criteria for what counts as a Russian presence within Bakhmut. This question is trying to capture whether the Russian position there will collapse totally, which is a way of measuring whether a) the Ukrainian counteroffensive thrusts in that direction, and b) is successful.
On credible n... | 2023-05-10T00:33:05 | 2023-07-07T19:00:00 | 2023-07-07T19:13:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ibnxQrZ6B710NCsbVfuQ | After the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive begins (6.8), will Russia withdraw from Bakhmut within two weeks (6.22)? | I am not going to set up exact criteria for what counts as a Russian presence within Bakhmut. This question is trying to capture whether the Russian position there will collapse totally, which is a way of measuring whether a) the Ukrainian counteroffensive thrusts in that direction, and b) is successful.
On credible n... | 2023-05-09T22:59:50 | 2023-06-21T19:00:00 | 2023-06-21T20:40:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2iNYI0G1dclljcX3H3dV | Will Destiny talk to Jidion again by the end of May? | Most recent convo was on 5/9/23.
[markets] | 2023-05-09T22:07:52 | 2023-06-01T03:40:33 | 2023-06-01T03:40:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w9P56q1eOOeuG4cy6YCL | Will Israel win Eurovision 2023? 🇮🇱 | Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023.
Resolves NO if Israel does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur. | 2023-05-09T18:34:59 | 2023-05-13T16:37:20 | 2023-05-13T16:37:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PISlxQHsu6jwLwtdjZDX | Will Twitter and Spotify merge by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-09T18:29:06 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:43:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ATkEOn1HEnTBGfWH6FgS | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/16792/ukraine-controls-znpp-by-december-2023/
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant.
The International Atomic... | 2023-05-09T16:16:38 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T07:15:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AjcyKfJSyzh9zMzJgPjf | Will Real Madrid beat Manchester City in the UCL semifinals, second leg match? | Real wins = YES
City wins = NO
Draw = NO
Match postponed = close date changes
Match canceled = N/A
Retrospective win decision altered = no change to resolution | 2023-05-09T12:49:46 | 2023-05-17T14:00:36 | 2023-05-17T14:00:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zgM7bhjPCp1taFLtyjpZ | Will Trump successfully appeal the verdict in Carroll v. Trump? | "Successfully" means a new trial that rules in his favor, doing anything that measurably reduces the damages or liability. The battery charge being removed entirely would also count.
Some context: https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3996111-trump-says-he-will-appeal-e-jean-carroll-case-over-unconstitutional-s... | 2023-05-09T12:33:54 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:46:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mXtA4DMuY8xWxOYCkkJp | Will Xi Jinping visit the Mar-a-lago by the end of 2024? | Xi has been there once before during Trump's first term.
[markets] | 2023-05-09T12:16:29 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:43:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HXUbQs1LvwvgKoGmaDkx | Will Joe Biden visit Xi in Zhongnanhai by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-09T12:14:53 | 2024-12-31T12:28:45 | 2024-12-31T12:28:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n6JWwdTbTGqW34pXbuyh | Will Xi Jinping visit the White House by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-09T12:14:01 | 2024-12-31T13:49:57 | 2024-12-31T13:49:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8KYvQOQMawVikl7Xm8a5 | Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2024? | If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2024, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES. | 2023-05-09T10:28:09 | 2023-12-31T04:01:55 | 2023-12-31T04:01:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NXgARdD3G9DlGhXzP4K4 | Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025? | If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2025, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.
If AI has not wiped out humanity by then, we have the related questions where LeCun or Tegmark battle to defeat the AI:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/TeddyWeverka/will-yann-lecun-have-a-cameo-role-s)(https://m... | 2023-05-09T10:27:55 | 2024-12-31T07:24:15 | 2024-12-31T07:24:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R5KmNzYVNOp6JB8awVaU | Will Russia field Chinese main battle tanks in Ukraine before 2025? | There is growing speculation that Russia is running low on its huge stocks of Soviet era tanks. There is also speculation that the Russian economy will be unable to generate replacements. If so, China would be virtually the only option for Russia to acquire new tanks. Obviously, in geopolitical terms it would be a majo... | 2023-05-09T05:18:11 | 2025-01-01T07:59:00 | 2025-01-03T03:38:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XNGaBqOeAdhAOA2ujKkK | Will Biden use the 14th amendment to raise the debt ceiling without reaching a deal with the GOP? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-09T03:51:13 | 2023-06-05T08:16:38 | 2023-06-05T08:16:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cVMkKIhX203eryDygIBP | Will Erling Haaland score another hattrick before the 22-23 season ends? | Has to be a compeitive game. | 2023-05-09T01:56:10 | 2023-06-10T15:46:47 | 2023-06-10T15:46:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w8Axni4eMBky1Mg0IxIL | Will the UK outright maximum temperature record be broken in 2023? | Last year, on the 19th July 2022, a new UK temperature record of 40.3 °C was set in Coningsby, Lincolnshire; 1.6°C higher than the previous record from 2019. Will this record be broken in 2023? | 2023-05-09T01:46:06 | 2023-09-30T15:59:00 | 2023-09-30T20:30:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KTsOVC8Ma7NSMgJEY2qv | Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2024? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 10 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have ... | 2023-05-09T00:52:04 | 2025-01-04T08:09:56 | 2025-01-04T08:09:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4SDkK6g7WhF0lDuMM8VE | Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2024? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 7 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have y... | 2023-05-09T00:51:50 | 2025-01-04T08:05:57 | 2025-01-04T08:05:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a8pnJl7lpMkjGE3mb1qg | Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2024? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2024.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 1 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have ye... | 2023-05-09T00:42:11 | 2024-04-27T00:10:56 | 2024-04-27T00:10:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KI6nAxzCEaKmlod8IvSO | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on Memorial Day? | Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on May 29, 2023. Resolves YES even if Jimmy Carter passes away on that day. | 2023-05-08T19:19:15 | 2023-05-29T20:59:00 | 2023-05-30T05:37:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lTOt4m6wayZncvxA8zbW | Will 'Oppenheimer' get nominations in more than three Oscars categories at the 96th Academy Awards? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)
Nominations in 4 or more categories = YES
Nominations in 3 or fewer categories = NO | 2023-05-08T17:45:22 | 2024-01-23T08:38:02 | 2024-01-23T08:38:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y3EH480TYMWmUBN9JePo | Will 'Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One' be nominated for any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission:_Impossible_%E2%80%93_Dead_Reckoning_Part_One
If the movie is delayed such that its Oscar-qualifying run makes it eligible for the 97th Academy Awards (the ceremony for movies released in 2024) rather than the 96th Academy Awards (the ceremony for movies released in 2023), this ma... | 2023-05-08T17:33:42 | 2024-01-23T08:28:22 | 2024-01-23T08:28:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zuDtHyo55r9wAIXHOwXl | Will 'Barbie' be nominated for any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbie_(film)
If the movie is delayed such that its Oscar-qualifying run makes it eligible for the 97th Academy Awards (the ceremony for movies released in 2024) rather than the 96th Academy Awards (the ceremony for movies released in 2023), this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-05-08T17:30:33 | 2024-01-23T08:25:40 | 2024-01-23T08:25:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BfRAdvRtFayaI3ZqRUYQ | Will 'Wonka' be nominated for any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonka_(film)
If the movie is delayed such that its Oscar-qualifying run makes it eligible for the 97th Academy Awards rather than the 96th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-05-08T17:24:54 | 2024-01-23T08:30:47 | 2024-01-23T08:30:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OhRFcaa6ofkziIvbom3m | Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) gross more than $575 million domestically before 2024? | The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $575 million, this mar... | 2023-05-08T13:53:33 | 2024-01-01T05:11:50 | 2024-01-01T05:11:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-50f6jXD89XTL0DU8ZdaZ | Will prince William and Kate announce another pregnancy in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-08T13:16:42 | 2023-12-30T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:16:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SaYAfc0m7RagwgaeapFJ | Will Trump win 2024 elections? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-08T12:42:34 | 2024-11-06T15:33:32 | 2024-11-06T15:33:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7hCoHFEBe1tYOEB93Ul3 | Will there be a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in 2023? | Counts as any event which results in unsafe levels of radiation leaking from the plant. Can clarify definitions in comments. | 2023-05-08T05:37:56 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T22:42:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oUFyh43rPF1lLRMcIgW8 | Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)? | At the 2019 general election, the Liberal Democrats won 11 seats, coming fourth behind the Conservatives (on 365 seats), Labour (202), and the SNP (48). This market resolves to YES if the party comes third at the next general election (in terms of seats, not votes). Candidates elected as Liberal Democrats still count i... | 2023-05-08T05:30:32 | 2024-07-05T00:48:30 | 2024-07-05T00:48:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Vqaz8Wp2vd9DhxSASCj | Will the S&P 500 increase more than Nasdaq Composite in (any one month) May, June, or July 2023? | Will the S&P 500 increase more or decrease less than the Nasdaq Composite from open to close in May, June, or July 2023 (any one month)?
Open to close means from open on the first trading day in a month to close on the last trading day in the same month.
SPX
5/1 O 4166.79 5/31 C 4179.83 +0.312950737%
6/1 O 4183.03 ... | 2023-05-08T00:43:09 | 2023-08-01T09:00:00 | 2023-08-01T11:53:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UnfJlDfidSLhgt7P8wV0 | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2023 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the race | 2023-05-07T21:16:56 | 2023-05-28T09:18:42 | 2023-05-28T09:18:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LDSPbKyHTTc9OEdWTtbZ | Will 'Asteroid City', directed by Wes Anderson, be nominated for any Oscar at the 96th Academy Awards? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_City | 2023-05-07T19:30:59 | 2024-01-23T08:31:11 | 2024-01-23T08:31:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MzaaLfe0pSwM71L7KgcN | Will Minecraft be searched more in the US than Roblox at the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if:
The volume of searches in the United States for the term "Minecraft" exceeds the volume of searches for the term "Roblox" on Google Trends, using the "past day" filter on Dec 31 2023, 11:59 PM GMT. (average shown on the left)
Resolves N/A if:
Google Trends is down at the close date, and doesn't r... | 2023-05-07T18:15:59 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:10:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
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