id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-MT8GOYt5kzOtbvcjpxG4 | Will Starfield release on 6th September 2023? | Will resolve as yes if the game Starfield is released on 6th September 2023
Will resolve as no if delayed or brought forward. | 2023-05-07T14:30:53 | 2023-09-06T15:59:00 | 2023-09-10T06:34:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DsbJ8wENstMg8QEelSAr | Will Obama come on Destiny's stream in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-07T11:18:03 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:44:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CAshjRsCTNvoaA152EC3 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted by July 1 2023? | Will follow polymarket, their rules are:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden, son of US President Joseph Biden, is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between March 20, 2023 and July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this mark... | 2023-05-07T08:33:58 | 2023-06-20T08:52:51 | 2023-06-20T08:52:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gjC8DyNYOiDUjIWYUu1a | Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record before September 2023? | Forsen and xQc are both variety streamers who often play competitive games. But sometimes they take a break to play more creative and fun titles. One of the games both decided to try out when their own favorites got stale was Minecraft. But Forsen and xQc quickly turned Minecraft competitive with their speedrunning ant... | 2023-05-07T06:59:09 | 2023-08-30T15:00:00 | 2023-09-02T01:03:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lOtFJRPvr74HSbNggLDV | Will Eliud Kipchoge win another Olympic gold medal? | "Come next year, Kipchoge will be older than every Boston Marathon men’s champion since 1930. Depending on what happens in the fall, he may also be fighting for a spot Kenya’s three-man Olympic marathon team for the Paris Games.
He will be older than any previous Kenyan Olympic track and field athlete and older than a... | 2023-05-07T06:04:59 | 2024-08-10T09:30:50 | 2024-08-10T09:30:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lzKjhFaAy4JeJXFTh692 | Will Leafy come on Destiny's stream in 2023 | Will be resolved YES = Leafy talks to Destiny on stream
[image] | 2023-05-07T01:38:13 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-06T14:37:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-B8HJIldJIsamAaEUbBXV | Will Jordan Neely's killer, marine veteran Daniel Penny be convicted of murder or manslaughter? | (https://www.nationalreview.com/news/history-of-violent-and-erratic-behavior-daniel-penny-releases-statement-addressing-neely-death/)[markets] | 2023-05-07T01:04:42 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:36:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gB9ciRxzx5PoPkscf7BN | [M1000 Subsidy] Will Pita Limjaroenrat be the next Prime Minister of Thailand? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-06T23:43:42 | 2023-08-23T17:29:06 | 2023-08-23T17:29:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jtSPSZD5YwnCieLeXszL | Will 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' be nominated in more than one Oscar category at the 96th Academy Awards? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Across_the_Spider-Verse
If it is nominated in 2 or more Oscar categories at the 96th Academy Awards, resolves YES.
If nominated in 1 or 0 categories, resolves NO. | 2023-05-06T19:20:50 | 2024-01-23T08:30:13 | 2024-01-23T08:30:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VzK4IMpGWDpjaq8XspR4 | Will Clarence Thomas be a SCOTUS justice after 1 year? | Definitions
SCOTUS here means "The supreme court of the united states"
Situation
Clarance Thomas is currently a SCOTUS justice
Thomas is currently under fire for accepting gifts from a Republican donor (see legaleagle's video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suVD6h7WkcQ for an example of criticism)
Some people are ... | 2023-05-06T15:55:48 | 2024-05-06T16:59:00 | 2024-05-20T01:16:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-W9HQOCBEadDfttVGJKzD | Will SpaceX Starship reach space before September? | Resolves YES if SpaceX Starship reaches an altitude of at least 100km (the Karman line definition of space) before September 1, 2023, otherwise NO.
This question is about vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But ... | 2023-05-06T14:42:43 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-09-01T05:25:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pT2uQqpp34myM3MqDAuG | Will Destiny talk to Avi again by the end of May? | Their most recent conversation was on 5/5/23. | 2023-05-06T14:23:27 | 2023-06-01T03:41:24 | 2023-06-01T03:41:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nZ5JPRmZv3MdwmJhSO77 | Will the US experience a financial crisis during 2023? | For the purposes of this question, a "financial crisis" is a value of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) of 1.75, a level that has happened four times in the last 30 years: the 1998 Russian Financial Crisis, after 9/11, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, and at the beginning of COVID lockdowns in 2020. T... | 2023-05-05T18:19:35 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:13:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hNbV3UG6AUAeViJHEEie | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/
Some 10½ months ago, on February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Their concept of operations apparently involved rapidly taking the capital, deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western cou... | 2023-05-05T15:42:28 | 2023-05-31T14:00:00 | 2023-06-04T13:21:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KHQk7RFuQHKTgvBlqmTb | Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of August 2023? | Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happene... | 2023-05-05T14:35:24 | 2023-09-01T00:11:31 | 2023-09-01T00:11:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fqi6g62RDnyEzhNREYcM | Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $180 before $170? | Last price: 2023-06-08 $180.57 (low $177.46)
(will try to update every day after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) since market creation (2023-05-05) during which the price stays above $180 (YES) or below $170 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first t... | 2023-05-05T13:15:56 | 2023-06-09T13:03:08 | 2023-06-09T13:03:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ClJKQxN47lK9qi225OXT | Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2023? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 10 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have ye... | 2023-05-05T13:12:53 | 2024-01-04T23:24:55 | 2024-01-04T23:24:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OsAbD3wDvXhdxeZ4lHvS | Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2023? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 8 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have yea... | 2023-05-05T13:11:08 | 2024-01-04T23:23:22 | 2024-01-04T23:23:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ND1x10ymNJaBj7T2GXVL | Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2023? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 7 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have yea... | 2023-05-05T13:10:09 | 2024-01-04T23:22:31 | 2024-01-04T23:22:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-31zuQ52jEL6wvu8Qzn4T | Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2023? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 6 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have yea... | 2023-05-05T13:09:10 | 2024-01-04T23:21:47 | 2024-01-04T23:21:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TafF8ptsb8o08DasklgB | Will 5 or more US banks fail in 2023? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 5 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have yea... | 2023-05-05T13:08:02 | 2023-11-04T00:16:40 | 2023-11-04T00:16:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8hLr9vQLdK72UhAQyBC2 | Will 4 or more US banks fail in 2023? | This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 4 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have ye... | 2023-05-05T13:06:08 | 2023-07-29T00:38:43 | 2023-07-29T00:38:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HTA4htJDmbE8JR97GrkZ | Will Ukraine Retake Control of One of These Eight Cities by September 15th? | The cities in question:
Seiveirodonetsk, Kreminna, Lysychansk, Melitopol, Mariupol, Tokmak, Donetsk, or Svatove
This market will resolve with the same result, at the same time as its counterpart on Insight Prediction:
https://insightprediction.com/m/201557/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-seiveirodonetsk-kreminna-lysych... | 2023-05-05T11:35:27 | 2023-09-18T21:59:00 | 2023-09-20T15:12:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jveQW11lWIiklvuCH8Vw | Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/16741/trump-sexual-assault-case/
E. Jean Carroll, a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has accused former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan. Carroll first spoke about the allegations in 201... | 2023-05-05T10:14:37 | 2023-05-10T17:13:08 | 2023-05-10T17:13:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JlDOukeUul5jSsqQdYOS | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-05T08:53:02 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-04T02:45:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1FaVLtVulwM2j3hKQpZn | Will there be any US major party presidential primary debates in 2023-2024? | Will there be Democratic or Republican primary debates for the 2023-2024 presidential campaign? | 2023-05-05T07:12:51 | 2023-08-27T09:19:52 | 2023-08-27T09:19:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7tna7U5U2p79n9ZmLJZT | Will Russia's Wagner Group pull out of Bakhmut, Ukraine by the end of May? | [tweet]The market resolves Yes if Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group boss confirms that they are withdrawing from Bakhmut and actually leave the city. | 2023-05-05T03:16:09 | 2023-05-31T23:59:00 | 2023-06-01T16:54:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l17Q6r1Y1xCbFpgH8Vn2 | Will Destiny talk to/collaborate with Nick Fuentes before June (GMT) | [image]Resolve condition is a direct line of communication on stream (any public stream, a VOD recorded after April 30th and released before June 1st also counts), that lasts for one minute or more, with at least one full sentence directed at the other by both participants. | 2023-05-04T15:55:21 | 2023-05-31T23:17:17 | 2023-05-31T23:17:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qR1gMIcdrNzsBWPAXsYj | Will Dune: Part 2 have >70% on Rotten Tomatoes two weeks after release? | Tomatometer score. | 2023-05-04T14:14:52 | 2024-03-15T21:59:00 | 2024-03-15T22:35:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-W1hETMs4q0t54Avqa3e4 | Will Destiny talk to Sneako again in May? | (https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-destiny-join-sneakos-south-ame) | 2023-05-04T13:09:33 | 2023-05-10T22:55:07 | 2023-05-10T22:55:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cTUEwObjI96ugyRObkqG | Will Destiny talk to Anastasiya aka. Ukrainian Ana again in May? | Their most recent convo was on 5/4/23.
[markets] | 2023-05-04T13:07:53 | 2023-06-01T03:47:35 | 2023-06-01T03:47:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sw8L16iollfVGl1sTS22 | Will Discord IPO by 2024? | Resolves YES if in 2023 or 2024 Discord goes public, otherwise NO. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc. | 2023-05-04T12:45:40 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-05T16:49:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BViLPW52aSnq6yfjomR0 | Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2023? | Market resolves YES if Playboi Carti releases an album in 2023 officially on a streaming service. Considering his extensive backlog of unreleased material, the album does not need to consist of previously unheard material (an album containing or consisting entirely of leaked tracks wouldn't disqualify it). A deluxe ver... | 2023-05-04T12:30:10 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:57:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1LhSrhcHioRPg8XHakMR | Will Western Alliance fail by end of May 2023? | Will Western Alliance Bancorporation fail, have to be bailed out, or sold as a whole before May 2023?
Yes if it fails OR gets sold
No if it survives
Stock price here: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/WAL
Will end up on here if it fails: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank... | 2023-05-04T11:27:40 | 2023-05-31T23:47:00 | 2023-05-31T23:47:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QOJPj7UkDhVDShvdxjIf | Will Destiny talk again with Grace Thorp aka Joan before the end of May 2023? | Resolves to yes if they are together in a conversation, it can be a group conversation. | 2023-05-04T09:44:01 | 2023-05-06T07:17:45 | 2023-05-06T07:19:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2JiPjdlN5xTKPkYYO5te | Will Bluesky Social come out of beta in 2023? | Bluesky is currently an invite-only closed beta social network. Will it be freely accessible by anyone before the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if I can create a Bluesky account anytime before 31/12/2023 23:59.
Resolves NO if the site is still invite-only (even if it describes itself as no longer in beta) or becomes unre... | 2023-05-04T08:41:12 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T04:47:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YJlCWfmUDRmpKNONeU1G | Will Disney announce another Star Wars movie on May 4th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-04T07:49:56 | 2023-05-04T21:59:00 | 2023-05-04T22:26:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YWeiWlXRRueSt7Kkesc2 | May 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000? | If in May 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | 2023-05-04T05:49:28 | 2023-06-01T03:34:24 | 2023-06-01T03:34:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9F7u6bK6pNGW39fmzMxl | Will Gladiator 2 achieve a Tomatometer score of ≥70%? | Gladiator 2, directed by Ridley Scott, with Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal has been announced.
The question resolves according to TOMATOMETER score 3 months after the movie's release date. (So you can expect resolution date to change!)
If the movie is not released before the end of 2026, then the question resolves... | 2023-05-04T03:48:25 | 2024-12-25T14:59:00 | 2024-12-25T16:31:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gaUgbE1Nd635h5BIoxxe | Will Gladiator 2 gross more than $500M worldwide? | Gladiator 2, directed by Ridley Scott, with Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal has been announced.
The question resolves according to numbers at Box Office Mojo.
The original release of the first Gladiator movie grossed $460,583,960 back in 2000.
Would resolve YES early if crossing threshold.
Edit October 3, 2024: T... | 2023-05-04T03:39:37 | 2025-02-10T06:21:15 | 2025-02-10T06:21:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V6iZyMD8B9ldhkU4gaBg | Will Ukraine hold western Bakhmut through May 15? | Resolution
Resolves NO if at any point in time, Russia claims control of Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, Ukraine, by May 15, 2023 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise YES.
If this location is shaded orange or red on the ISW maps, the market will... | 2023-05-03T21:21:26 | 2023-05-15T16:59:00 | 2023-05-15T17:35:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IE13cIaria26hm3jlg6U | Will Starship reach space in 2023? | Resolves YES if SpaceX Starship reaches an altitude of at least 100km (the Karman line definition of space) in 2023, otherwise NO.
This question is about vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based o... | 2023-05-03T20:14:22 | 2023-11-18T05:11:47 | 2023-11-18T05:11:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tKMsJzYtT0AebcTWBrb4 | Will Ukraine Sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by September 30th, 2023? | This is a mirror of https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-september-30th-2023 and resolves the same as Insight Prediction resolves.
This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea at any point before September 31, 2023. The primary resolut... | 2023-05-03T20:01:17 | 2023-09-30T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T06:04:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-byxEDrGbTaXUAA4uMD55 | Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/16724/hollywood-writers-strike-active-on-may-12th/
On May 3rd, Hollywood film and TV writers went on strike after the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers failed to reach a new contract agreement. The strike was prompted by streaming ... | 2023-05-03T18:25:27 | 2023-05-12T22:00:00 | 2023-05-13T17:48:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JkzYKSmF8j2d2LFvgeUM | Will Vladimir Putin be alive by the end of 2023? | Resolves to NO if he dies anytime before 2024. | 2023-05-03T14:01:49 | 2023-12-30T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:17:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uoUbM1GVdvrWySr6YKxs | Will another US bank be shut down by the FDIC in May? (After First Republic) | Resolves YES if after First Republic Bank's collapse on May 1 and before June 1 (eastern time), another US bank is placed into FDIC receivership according to https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/.
Background
The ongoing banking crisis has caused the collapse of several large regio... | 2023-05-03T12:56:23 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-05-31T21:03:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eRHa9RQqtBcQnJ7aKKfI | Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more worldwide than any other movie released in 2023? | This Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/
I will wait for all movies that could get within spitting distance to finish their initial run before resolving. | 2023-05-03T12:23:55 | 2024-02-03T11:06:15 | 2024-02-03T11:06:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mWe0UJx5hjcNOOMZySJk | Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any other movie released in 2023? | This Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve. Mario must have grossed the most (in terms of domestic take) of any movie on this list.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/?sort=domesticGrossToDate
I will wait for all movies that could get within spitting distance to finish their initial run before resol... | 2023-05-03T12:21:21 | 2023-09-20T00:44:38 | 2023-09-20T00:44:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oN00CzsPdcphIFmCZhBL | Will Amazon's acquisition of iRobot Corp be consummated before the end of 2024? | https://www.reuters.com/technology/uk-regulator-probes-amazons-planned-purchase-irobot-2023-04-18/ | 2023-05-03T10:36:39 | 2024-04-07T06:22:52 | 2024-04-07T06:22:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-udFn0qQtgIg4TBYxINQu | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut on June 1st 2023? | Resolves YES if Ukraine is in control of the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on June 1, 2023 (12:00 GMT), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). For this Market we will use the search "Bakhmut, Donetsk, UKR" and the central dot located therein.
If this area is not shaded red on the ISW map... | 2023-05-03T10:36:28 | 2023-06-01T03:00:00 | 2023-06-01T04:40:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kRd5JRPTIhDSukHIKyJg | Will Japan intercept a North Korean missile before the end of 2023? | Missile tests and real world combat both count. | 2023-05-03T09:15:33 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:05:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lu7iMy7ZqiZXNaFO9puJ | Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win their West Semifinals Series against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs? | This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games).
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-03T04:11:49 | 2023-05-12T21:47:26 | 2023-05-12T21:47:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ipq4mNcvXitjk55fucp4 | Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win Game 6 of the West Semifinals against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 5 games.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545236
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-03T04:07:17 | 2023-05-12T21:46:19 | 2023-05-12T21:46:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zJ3HEyuLxVsWlO6s9aQ7 | Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win Game 5 of the West Semifinals against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 4 games.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545235
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-03T04:04:58 | 2023-05-10T21:32:35 | 2023-05-10T21:32:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XHnBF3cAuFemAM4Jtz2Y | Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win Game 4 of the West Semifinals against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs? | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545234
Additional Markets:
[markets] | 2023-05-03T04:03:05 | 2023-05-08T22:00:00 | 2023-05-09T04:57:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2wy1uIkmTOXFQBRxm2R3 | Will Destiny have another conversation with JustPearlyThings by the end of June, 2023? | Market will get resolved YES if he has another conversation with JustPearlyThings by the end of June, 2023
Market will get resolved NO if he does not have another conversation with JustPearlyThings by the end of June, 2023 | 2023-05-03T03:03:15 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-07-10T04:54:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DJ3FUplme3vmQy1UYPWP | Will winner of the 2023 Formula 1 Championship be decided before October? | Resolves to YES if the driver leading the championship has a greater gap to the driver in second place, than there are potential points remaining after the results of the Japanese Grand Prix.
In the case neither the Japanese GP or Qatar GP are held, this market will resolve at the end of September.
Resolves to NO if ... | 2023-05-03T02:17:30 | 2023-09-30T14:59:00 | 2023-10-02T10:16:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BE5hsQ7M2AGfzj6EWk7H | Will France make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-03T01:14:38 | 2023-10-15T17:55:33 | 2023-10-15T17:55:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WSGQfaBG1l0Pmry9iIz9 | Will England make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-03T00:47:29 | 2023-10-15T17:55:03 | 2023-10-15T17:55:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fPSZWu2SXA4apcUTxfmb | Will Ireland make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-03T00:44:17 | 2023-10-14T17:04:49 | 2023-10-14T17:04:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tee1u69azr5XsMfgM4pT | Will South Africa make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-03T00:43:10 | 2023-10-15T17:55:20 | 2023-10-15T17:55:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DRcQ6XX76jsKJfMyQ6KI | Will New Zealand make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-03T00:42:07 | 2023-10-14T17:05:15 | 2023-10-14T17:05:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LrqehdLE2wPCprvJ2CJO | Will there be 20 bank failures? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-02T19:54:40 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:42:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VsCzZCMsXhIpWmH3c3un | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 660k subscribers in May? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-05-02T19:01:47 | 2023-05-21T18:06:36 | 2023-05-21T18:06:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-leNSdNAXlsTjLT8J6AKl | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 659k subscribers in May? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-05-02T19:01:13 | 2023-05-19T09:50:11 | 2023-05-19T09:50:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jREGpkAzxxV8yKTJCzP7 | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 658k subscribers in May? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-05-02T19:00:34 | 2023-05-20T05:49:34 | 2023-05-20T05:49:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YAcq5Mb63HuDVdcZTbZW | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on January 1st, 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-02T15:22:10 | 2023-12-31T15:01:00 | 2024-01-01T01:01:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bWELiylqsiyt4SvY4tFM | Will there be a public discussion between Goeffrey Hinton and Eliezer Yudkowsky? | Inspired by this tweet: https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1653054615263514625
Hinton: In the NYT today, Cade Metz implies that I left Google so that I could criticize Google. Actually, I left so that I could talk about the dangers of AI without considering how this impacts Google. Google has acted very responsibl... | 2023-05-02T14:44:03 | 2023-10-31T15:59:00 | 2023-11-01T02:42:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KdF6pIS2cdvt31Linve9 | Will Destiny talk to Avi again by the end of May? | Their most recent conversation was on 5/2/23.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/v8_uPNlNt0A) | 2023-05-02T11:49:50 | 2023-05-06T14:22:24 | 2023-05-06T14:22:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6KrxaslHXh80zfvCcRD2 | Will Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard be consummated before the end of 2024? | https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/uk-blocks-microsoft-69-bln-activision-deal-over-cloud-gaming-concerns-2023-04-26/ | 2023-05-02T11:39:06 | 2023-10-19T19:41:50 | 2023-10-19T19:41:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zPKRgxRj6BN9iHDP7POX | Will the Albertsons/Kroger Merger be Consummated before the end of 2024? | https://seekingalpha.com/article/4598539-albertsonskroger-merger-likely-not-consummated-indicators | 2023-05-02T11:35:46 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-F6RlkvnqehWLYh2AKQxO | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/16718/ai-time-person-of-the-year-in-2023/
Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its Person of the Year, who "for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year." While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in ... | 2023-05-02T10:43:24 | 2023-12-06T10:23:44 | 2023-12-06T10:23:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-91nPYrtIk6prHSVFftpZ | Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2024? | Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least on... | 2023-05-02T10:11:00 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T17:02:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GLbzXBPEaaPCOIY9kIBD | Will Destiny talk to Kidology again by the end of May? | Their most recent convo was on 5/1/23.
[markets] | 2023-05-02T10:05:01 | 2023-06-01T03:49:44 | 2023-06-01T03:49:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-unUTSYc51VSYQaX9XR4E | Will Elon Musk step down from being head of Twitter before the end of Jun 2024? | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097
[image] | 2023-05-02T09:30:07 | 2023-06-08T19:10:49 | 2023-06-08T19:10:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bEcjrSrSQwkLdZfQ1Ab6 | Will the fed funds rate peak above 5.5% in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-02T08:40:11 | 2023-12-31T15:01:08 | 2023-12-31T15:01:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kyA8xVTIiXyzY4vceSFH | Will undersea infrastructure be attacked in 2023? | Spirit of the market: Will another attack like Nord Stream 2 happen in the rest of 2023, or on smaller internet cables.
There is a lot of undersea infrastructure that is very vulnerable to attack, not well patrolled and easy to target. Largely not under attack because everyone is at peace with each other.
Will resolv... | 2023-05-02T08:09:48 | 2024-01-01T04:34:44 | 2024-01-01T04:34:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b3h7j9x3FpnAZunxWnAa | Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of September, 2024? | If it can play games that the old Switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube).
If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Adv... | 2023-05-02T04:18:10 | 2024-10-01T18:46:24 | 2024-10-01T18:46:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pYmt7KzNkHu88QXZfvRy | Will Argentina make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-02T03:13:04 | 2023-10-20T14:21:18 | 2023-10-20T14:21:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mKluPQ775IBwC8A2iACb | Will France make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-02T03:12:15 | 2023-10-15T17:54:51 | 2023-10-15T17:54:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Oq9YOJQzfp4OlK3XZz7P | Will Ireland make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-02T03:11:38 | 2023-10-14T17:05:53 | 2023-10-14T17:05:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SakhCqQyojH747UlPTbE | Will England make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-02T03:11:08 | 2023-10-21T15:48:49 | 2023-10-21T15:48:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VB338QZ5ydqeLCa9FPuP | Will South Africa make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-02T03:10:49 | 2023-10-21T15:48:15 | 2023-10-21T15:48:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mIwbzhhD8HbdbfLf85cy | Will New Zealand make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | 2023-05-02T03:09:35 | 2023-10-20T14:20:36 | 2023-10-20T14:20:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fxb3xQwGC41Uw7dR3un4 | Will US inflation be above 4.0% in May 2023? | Resolves YES if CPI-U is above 303.988 in the May 2023 release (to be released Jun 13th) | 2023-05-02T01:53:34 | 2023-06-13T05:30:58 | 2023-06-13T05:30:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VUW8dOywj6VsGOL2CZaR | Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' get nominated for an Oscar in any category at the 96th Academy Awards? | If 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gets nominated for an Oscar in any category at the 96th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise NO. | 2023-05-02T00:31:22 | 2024-01-23T08:22:51 | 2024-01-23T08:22:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xU7cNMuXnOSci6BvpAyK | Will Destiny play Counter Strike 2 on stream within 1 month after it comes out? | May 2, 2:33am: Will Destiny play Counter Strike 2 within 1 month after it comes out? → Will Destiny play Counter Strike 2 on stream within 1 month after it comes out? | 2023-05-01T21:36:48 | 2023-11-26T20:12:57 | 2023-11-26T20:12:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-42qKhkyQcPKO3LRbRmj3 | Will the Hollywood writer strike last more than 100 days? | The Writers Guild of America (WGA) are starting a strike on Tuesday May 2nd, 2023, after contract negotiations broke down. The last WGA strike, in 2007, lasted 100 days. Will this strike last that long?
Resolves YES if the WGA is still on strike on August 10, 2023 (and has been striking for the entire time). Resolves ... | 2023-05-01T21:34:17 | 2023-08-09T20:59:00 | 2023-08-09T21:31:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sAXXjBtMrZ9cR6nawUq2 | Will S&P 500 increase in May 2023? | The S&P closed at 4076.60 in January, 3970.15 in February, 4109.31 in March, and 4169.48 in April. Will it increase from open on 2023-05-01 (4166.79) to close on 2023-05-31 (4179.83)?
Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices | 2023-05-01T17:47:43 | 2023-06-01T13:53:56 | 2023-06-01T13:53:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nLpO47AeH3441acz40Ss | Will Biden, Trump and Putin survive through 2023? | if any die it's no | 2023-05-01T17:18:12 | 2024-01-01T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:29:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fT7zUjvouu0zJnl6bWMf | Will the Tate brothers get charged with sex/human trafficking in Romania? | Resolved NO if no charges are filed against the Tates in the current proceedings
Resolved YES if Charges are filed | 2023-05-01T16:29:54 | 2023-07-14T13:04:22 | 2023-07-14T13:04:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nzWH2iUmIuYwzqAFj7Bv | Will Dianne Feinstein resign before July 1? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-05-01T10:34:20 | 2023-06-30T13:59:00 | 2023-06-30T14:31:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OxvhdQIWZrSZBzyhXPbM | Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of July? | @/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of
Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of July? <--- you are here
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-sta... | 2023-05-01T06:04:37 | 2023-07-31T20:59:00 | 2023-07-31T23:51:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PIT4pkrroh0M6DH4ZQXn | Will Destiny appear on Lilly's Brush It Off Podcast in 2023? | [image] | 2023-05-01T04:53:09 | 2023-08-01T00:16:43 | 2023-08-01T00:16:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QqYDddZ5dOcA6CWkb4ZL | Will Destiny appear on Lilly's Brush It Off Podcast in May? | [image] | 2023-05-01T04:52:03 | 2023-05-31T15:22:10 | 2023-05-31T15:22:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZM19VJBMVFhsbSx6hC7N | Will Destiny talk to Brittany Simon by the end of 2023? | [markets] | 2023-05-01T04:05:59 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:09:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W5rEpDkNxnfP4gHOKOZt | Will Destiny talk to Adin Ross in May? | [markets] | 2023-05-01T04:02:48 | 2023-06-01T03:51:02 | 2023-06-01T03:51:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pb26Q8PsB18Tf4yofOBj | Will Destiny talk to LowTierGod in May? | [markets] | 2023-05-01T03:47:21 | 2023-06-01T03:53:28 | 2023-06-01T03:53:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SybNMr9T10SXgFy9c9s5 | Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of July? | The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.
Mainstream media sources incl... | 2023-05-01T03:38:42 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T11:31:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AGINljaiqNMkKuNBwVf2 | Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of June? | The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.
Mainstream media sources incl... | 2023-05-01T03:31:25 | 2023-07-01T19:39:38 | 2023-07-01T19:39:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
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