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stringlengths 13
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stringlengths 0
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stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-MT8GOYt5kzOtbvcjpxG4
|
Will Starfield release on 6th September 2023?
|
Will resolve as yes if the game Starfield is released on 6th September 2023
Will resolve as no if delayed or brought forward.
|
2023-05-07T14:30:53
|
2023-09-06T15:59:00
|
2023-09-10T06:34:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DsbJ8wENstMg8QEelSAr
|
Will Obama come on Destiny's stream in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-07T11:18:03
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:44:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CAshjRsCTNvoaA152EC3
|
Will Hunter Biden be indicted by July 1 2023?
|
Will follow polymarket, their rules are:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden, son of US President Joseph Biden, is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between March 20, 2023 and July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the federal government of the United States (from sources such as https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel, https://www.justice.gov/news), however credible reporting may be used.
|
2023-05-07T08:33:58
|
2023-06-20T08:52:51
|
2023-06-20T08:52:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gjC8DyNYOiDUjIWYUu1a
|
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record before September 2023?
|
Forsen and xQc are both variety streamers who often play competitive games. But sometimes they take a break to play more creative and fun titles. One of the games both decided to try out when their own favorites got stale was Minecraft. But Forsen and xQc quickly turned Minecraft competitive with their speedrunning antics.
To beat 16:38:377
|
2023-05-07T06:59:09
|
2023-08-30T15:00:00
|
2023-09-02T01:03:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lOtFJRPvr74HSbNggLDV
|
Will Eliud Kipchoge win another Olympic gold medal?
|
"Come next year, Kipchoge will be older than every Boston Marathon men’s champion since 1930. Depending on what happens in the fall, he may also be fighting for a spot Kenya’s three-man Olympic marathon team for the Paris Games.
He will be older than any previous Kenyan Olympic track and field athlete and older than any previous Olympic gold medalist in any running event, according to Olympedia.org.
Kipchoge wants to become the first person to win three Olympic marathons, but three Kenyans finished ahead of him in Boston, including Evans Chebet, who has now won three consecutive major marathons (Boston 2022, New York City 2022 and Boston 2023). Another Kenyan, Benson Kipruto, finished third on Monday after winning Boston in 2021 and Chicago in 2022."
Source: https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2023/04/18/eliud-kipchoge-boston-marathon-olympics/amp/
|
2023-05-07T06:04:59
|
2024-08-10T09:30:50
|
2024-08-10T09:30:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lzKjhFaAy4JeJXFTh692
|
Will Leafy come on Destiny's stream in 2023
|
Will be resolved YES = Leafy talks to Destiny on stream
[image]
|
2023-05-07T01:38:13
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-06T14:37:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B8HJIldJIsamAaEUbBXV
|
Will Jordan Neely's killer, marine veteran Daniel Penny be convicted of murder or manslaughter?
|
(https://www.nationalreview.com/news/history-of-violent-and-erratic-behavior-daniel-penny-releases-statement-addressing-neely-death/)[markets]
|
2023-05-07T01:04:42
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:36:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gB9ciRxzx5PoPkscf7BN
|
[M1000 Subsidy] Will Pita Limjaroenrat be the next Prime Minister of Thailand?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-06T23:43:42
|
2023-08-23T17:29:06
|
2023-08-23T17:29:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jtSPSZD5YwnCieLeXszL
|
Will 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' be nominated in more than one Oscar category at the 96th Academy Awards?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Across_the_Spider-Verse
If it is nominated in 2 or more Oscar categories at the 96th Academy Awards, resolves YES.
If nominated in 1 or 0 categories, resolves NO.
|
2023-05-06T19:20:50
|
2024-01-23T08:30:13
|
2024-01-23T08:30:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VzK4IMpGWDpjaq8XspR4
|
Will Clarence Thomas be a SCOTUS justice after 1 year?
|
Definitions
SCOTUS here means "The supreme court of the united states"
Situation
Clarance Thomas is currently a SCOTUS justice
Thomas is currently under fire for accepting gifts from a Republican donor (see legaleagle's video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suVD6h7WkcQ for an example of criticism)
Some people are calling for his impeachement (https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/clarence-thomas-ginni-supreme-court-ethics-rcna83062)
Resolution criteria
Yes
Clarance Thomas is still a supreme court justice at this market's close
No
At any period during this market's lifetime Clarance Thomas is no longer a supreme court justice whether by death, successful impeachment or resignation
N/A
SCOTUS no longer exists at any period during this market's lifetime
50%
This market never resolves 50%
Ambiguity
Any ambiguity with resolution conditions will be resolved by me in the way I feel best fits the spirit of the market. If you point out any ambiguity to me in the comments, I'll do my best to respond and update the market description with my resolution.
|
2023-05-06T15:55:48
|
2024-05-06T16:59:00
|
2024-05-20T01:16:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W9HQOCBEadDfttVGJKzD
|
Will SpaceX Starship reach space before September?
|
Resolves YES if SpaceX Starship reaches an altitude of at least 100km (the Karman line definition of space) before September 1, 2023, otherwise NO.
This question is about vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
(This question's criteria is chosen to be less ambiguous than the questions about whether it reaches orbit, where it is unclear whether a planned borderline-orbital test flight, with perigee within the atmosphere, counts as orbital.)
|
2023-05-06T14:42:43
|
2023-08-31T20:59:00
|
2023-09-01T05:25:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pT2uQqpp34myM3MqDAuG
|
Will Destiny talk to Avi again by the end of May?
|
Their most recent conversation was on 5/5/23.
|
2023-05-06T14:23:27
|
2023-06-01T03:41:24
|
2023-06-01T03:41:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nZ5JPRmZv3MdwmJhSO77
|
Will the US experience a financial crisis during 2023?
|
For the purposes of this question, a "financial crisis" is a value of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) of 1.75, a level that has happened four times in the last 30 years: the 1998 Russian Financial Crisis, after 9/11, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, and at the beginning of COVID lockdowns in 2020. The question resolves Yes if the STLFSI4 value is reported to be greater than or equal to 1.75
|
2023-05-05T18:19:35
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:13:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hNbV3UG6AUAeViJHEEie
|
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/
Some 10½ months ago, on February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Their concept of operations apparently involved rapidly taking the capital, deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after fierce Ukrainian resistance and serious deficiencies in Russian military preparedness defeated this plan, Russia shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east, where conditions were more favorable. This offensive also bogged down quickly, and Russia's offensive ambitions continually narrowed into the summer until they were focused ultimately around the town of Bakhmut, where operations were being conducted largely by the "Wagner Group" private army under Yevgeny Prigozhin instead of by the regular Russian army.
By fall, Bakhmut was described as an obsession for Russia and a "meat grinder" into which its best forces were being wastefully thrown. Nonetheless, the Bakhmut offensive continued, with some analysts speculating that it was essentially a propaganda operation designed to provide Russian President Putin with a "victory" to offset mounting defeats, or even motivated by Prigozhin's personal financial interests.
On December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders. On January 6th, Russia launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar, where Ukrainian officials acknowledged the situation was "difficult.".
After months of fighting Russia made incremental gains in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building allegedly falling to Russian troops in April.
On May 5, the head of the Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization leading the offensive, said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle because of lack of Russian support.
|
2023-05-05T15:42:28
|
2023-05-31T14:00:00
|
2023-06-04T13:21:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KHQk7RFuQHKTgvBlqmTb
|
Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of August 2023?
|
Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun)
|
2023-05-05T14:35:24
|
2023-09-01T00:11:31
|
2023-09-01T00:11:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fqi6g62RDnyEzhNREYcM
|
Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $180 before $170?
|
Last price: 2023-06-08 $180.57 (low $177.46)
(will try to update every day after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) since market creation (2023-05-05) during which the price stays above $180 (YES) or below $170 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close:
Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $180
Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $170
Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2). Will extend closing date as needed.
|
2023-05-05T13:15:56
|
2023-06-09T13:03:08
|
2023-06-09T13:03:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ClJKQxN47lK9qi225OXT
|
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2023?
|
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 10 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2023 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2024, there are less 10 records with a "Closing Date" in 2023 on the "Failed Bank List".
My markets about number of failed US banks:
2023:
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20
2024:
>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
|
2023-05-05T13:12:53
|
2024-01-04T23:24:55
|
2024-01-04T23:24:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OsAbD3wDvXhdxeZ4lHvS
|
Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2023?
|
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 8 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2023 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2024, there are less 8 records with a "Closing Date" in 2023 on the "Failed Bank List".
My markets about number of failed US banks:
2023:
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20
2024:
>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
|
2023-05-05T13:11:08
|
2024-01-04T23:23:22
|
2024-01-04T23:23:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ND1x10ymNJaBj7T2GXVL
|
Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2023?
|
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 7 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2023 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2024, there are less 7 records with a "Closing Date" in 2023 on the "Failed Bank List".
My markets about number of failed US banks:
2023:
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20
2024:
>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
|
2023-05-05T13:10:09
|
2024-01-04T23:22:31
|
2024-01-04T23:22:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-31zuQ52jEL6wvu8Qzn4T
|
Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2023?
|
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 6 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2023 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2024, there are less 6 records with a "Closing Date" in 2023 on the "Failed Bank List".
My markets about number of failed US banks:
2023:
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20
2024:
>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
|
2023-05-05T13:09:10
|
2024-01-04T23:21:47
|
2024-01-04T23:21:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TafF8ptsb8o08DasklgB
|
Will 5 or more US banks fail in 2023?
|
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 5 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2023 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2024, there are less 5 records with a "Closing Date" in 2023 on the "Failed Bank List".
My markets about number of failed US banks:
2023:
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20
2024:
>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
|
2023-05-05T13:08:02
|
2023-11-04T00:16:40
|
2023-11-04T00:16:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8hLr9vQLdK72UhAQyBC2
|
Will 4 or more US banks fail in 2023?
|
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2023.
The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/).
This market will be resolved as YES if there are 4 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2023 in the column "Closing Date".
This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2024, there are less than four records with a "Closing Date" in 2023 on the "Failed Bank List".
My markets about number of failed US banks:
2023:
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20
2024:
>= 1 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-1-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 2 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-2-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 3 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-3-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202
>= 4 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-4-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ca18862509d2
>= 5 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-5-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-d31c58a2a545
>= 6 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-6-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-3b950df4bf9d
>= 7 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-7-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-f9c29abb2f9a
>= 8 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-8-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-c114af3f48c2
>= 9 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-9-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-202-ae661dd6c96b
>= 10 https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-10-or-more-us-banks-fail-in-20-6476a487f43c
|
2023-05-05T13:06:08
|
2023-07-29T00:38:43
|
2023-07-29T00:38:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HTA4htJDmbE8JR97GrkZ
|
Will Ukraine Retake Control of One of These Eight Cities by September 15th?
|
The cities in question:
Seiveirodonetsk, Kreminna, Lysychansk, Melitopol, Mariupol, Tokmak, Donetsk, or Svatove
This market will resolve with the same result, at the same time as its counterpart on Insight Prediction:
https://insightprediction.com/m/201557/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-seiveirodonetsk-kreminna-lysychansk-melitopol-mariupol-tokmak-donetsk-or-svatove-by-september-15th
The Insight market should resolve as "Yes" if, at any point in time before September 15th, 2023, Ukraine retakes control of any of the following central points in any of these cities, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): the train station "Avtovokzal" in Seiveirodonetsk, the intersection of R66 and "Kosmonavta Titova Vulytsa" in Kreminna, any part of "Karl Marks street (Vulytsa)" in Lysychansk, "Donetsk (railroad) Station" in Donetsk, the central train station in Melitopol, Azovstal station in Mariupol, the train station "Verkniy Tokmak" in Tokmak, or Svatove train station in Svatove.
|
2023-05-05T11:35:27
|
2023-09-18T21:59:00
|
2023-09-20T15:12:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jveQW11lWIiklvuCH8Vw
|
Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16741/trump-sexual-assault-case/
E. Jean Carroll, a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has accused former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan. Carroll first spoke about the allegations in 2019, during Trump's presidency, and filed a defamation lawsuit against him in November 2019 after he denied the allegations and accused her of lying to boost sales of her forthcoming book. The defamation lawsuit stalled in the courts for years and has yet to reach trial.
In 2022, New York lawmakers passed the state's Adult Survivors Act, which provided sexual abuse victims a one-year window to sue attackers for assaults that occurred years earlier. This law enabled Carroll to file a second lawsuit against Trump in November 2022, accusing him of both rape and defamation for denying the assault took place. The second lawsuit, seeking damages and a retraction of his denial, is now being presented in a New York City federal courtroom under the supervision of US District Judge Lewis Kaplan. The proceedings began on April 25, 2023, and both sides rested their cases on May 4th.
For Trump, a loss in the defamation case could lead to financial damages and further damage his reputation. Moreover, an unfavorable outcome in the rape case could potentially validate Carroll's allegations and add to the controversies surrounding Trump's personal conduct. Losing the cases could also have broader implications, as it could embolden other accusers to pursue legal action and weaken Trump's political influence moving forward.
|
2023-05-05T10:14:37
|
2023-05-10T17:13:08
|
2023-05-10T17:13:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JlDOukeUul5jSsqQdYOS
|
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-05T08:53:02
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:45:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1FaVLtVulwM2j3hKQpZn
|
Will there be any US major party presidential primary debates in 2023-2024?
|
Will there be Democratic or Republican primary debates for the 2023-2024 presidential campaign?
|
2023-05-05T07:12:51
|
2023-08-27T09:19:52
|
2023-08-27T09:19:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7tna7U5U2p79n9ZmLJZT
|
Will Russia's Wagner Group pull out of Bakhmut, Ukraine by the end of May?
|
[tweet]The market resolves Yes if Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group boss confirms that they are withdrawing from Bakhmut and actually leave the city.
|
2023-05-05T03:16:09
|
2023-05-31T23:59:00
|
2023-06-01T16:54:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l17Q6r1Y1xCbFpgH8Vn2
|
Will Destiny talk to/collaborate with Nick Fuentes before June (GMT)
|
[image]Resolve condition is a direct line of communication on stream (any public stream, a VOD recorded after April 30th and released before June 1st also counts), that lasts for one minute or more, with at least one full sentence directed at the other by both participants.
|
2023-05-04T15:55:21
|
2023-05-31T23:17:17
|
2023-05-31T23:17:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qR1gMIcdrNzsBWPAXsYj
|
Will Dune: Part 2 have >70% on Rotten Tomatoes two weeks after release?
|
Tomatometer score.
|
2023-05-04T14:14:52
|
2024-03-15T21:59:00
|
2024-03-15T22:35:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W1hETMs4q0t54Avqa3e4
|
Will Destiny talk to Sneako again in May?
|
(https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-destiny-join-sneakos-south-ame)
|
2023-05-04T13:09:33
|
2023-05-10T22:55:07
|
2023-05-10T22:55:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cTUEwObjI96ugyRObkqG
|
Will Destiny talk to Anastasiya aka. Ukrainian Ana again in May?
|
Their most recent convo was on 5/4/23.
[markets]
|
2023-05-04T13:07:53
|
2023-06-01T03:47:35
|
2023-06-01T03:47:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sw8L16iollfVGl1sTS22
|
Will Discord IPO by 2024?
|
Resolves YES if in 2023 or 2024 Discord goes public, otherwise NO. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.
|
2023-05-04T12:45:40
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-05T16:49:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BViLPW52aSnq6yfjomR0
|
Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2023?
|
Market resolves YES if Playboi Carti releases an album in 2023 officially on a streaming service. Considering his extensive backlog of unreleased material, the album does not need to consist of previously unheard material (an album containing or consisting entirely of leaked tracks wouldn't disqualify it). A deluxe version of a previous album will only resolve YES if there are 7 or more new tracks.
|
2023-05-04T12:30:10
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:57:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1LhSrhcHioRPg8XHakMR
|
Will Western Alliance fail by end of May 2023?
|
Will Western Alliance Bancorporation fail, have to be bailed out, or sold as a whole before May 2023?
Yes if it fails OR gets sold
No if it survives
Stock price here: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/WAL
Will end up on here if it fails: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Wil resolve if an event caused it to fail in May, but the failed-bank-list is only updated a few days later.
As this market is objective, I may trade in it.
|
2023-05-04T11:27:40
|
2023-05-31T23:47:00
|
2023-05-31T23:47:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QOJPj7UkDhVDShvdxjIf
|
Will Destiny talk again with Grace Thorp aka Joan before the end of May 2023?
|
Resolves to yes if they are together in a conversation, it can be a group conversation.
|
2023-05-04T09:44:01
|
2023-05-06T07:17:45
|
2023-05-06T07:19:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2JiPjdlN5xTKPkYYO5te
|
Will Bluesky Social come out of beta in 2023?
|
Bluesky is currently an invite-only closed beta social network. Will it be freely accessible by anyone before the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if I can create a Bluesky account anytime before 31/12/2023 23:59.
Resolves NO if the site is still invite-only (even if it describes itself as no longer in beta) or becomes unreachable after 1/1/2024 00:00.
Notes: I don't currently have a Bluesky account.
Update: I now have a Bluesky account!
|
2023-05-04T08:41:12
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T04:47:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YJlCWfmUDRmpKNONeU1G
|
Will Disney announce another Star Wars movie on May 4th?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-04T07:49:56
|
2023-05-04T21:59:00
|
2023-05-04T22:26:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YWeiWlXRRueSt7Kkesc2
|
May 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000?
|
If in May 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2023-05-04T05:49:28
|
2023-06-01T03:34:24
|
2023-06-01T03:34:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9F7u6bK6pNGW39fmzMxl
|
Will Gladiator 2 achieve a Tomatometer score of ≥70%?
|
Gladiator 2, directed by Ridley Scott, with Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal has been announced.
The question resolves according to TOMATOMETER score 3 months after the movie's release date. (So you can expect resolution date to change!)
If the movie is not released before the end of 2026, then the question resolves N/A.
If Ridley Scott is no longer directing or producing, the question resolves N/A.
If any of the attached actors change, the question is still in full play.
Update 2024-23-12 (PST): The question will now resolve based on the Tomatometer score 1 month after release (instead of 3 months), with a closing date of December 25th. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2023-05-04T03:48:25
|
2024-12-25T14:59:00
|
2024-12-25T16:31:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gaUgbE1Nd635h5BIoxxe
|
Will Gladiator 2 gross more than $500M worldwide?
|
Gladiator 2, directed by Ridley Scott, with Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal has been announced.
The question resolves according to numbers at Box Office Mojo.
The original release of the first Gladiator movie grossed $460,583,960 back in 2000.
Would resolve YES early if crossing threshold.
Edit October 3, 2024: This market will stay open until the movie has left theaters (and box office mojo is no longer being updated), with some margin of ~2-4 weeks.
Will adapt closing date if release date changes. If the movie is not released by original market closing date of EOY 2025 (for whatever reason), resolves NO, not N/A.
|
2023-05-04T03:39:37
|
2025-02-10T06:21:15
|
2025-02-10T06:21:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V6iZyMD8B9ldhkU4gaBg
|
Will Ukraine hold western Bakhmut through May 15?
|
Resolution
Resolves NO if at any point in time, Russia claims control of Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, Ukraine, by May 15, 2023 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise YES.
If this location is shaded orange or red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve NO. If this area remains unshaded for the entire time period, resolves YES. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 15.
Background
Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and there are many key questions like: Will Russia will advance to capture all of Bakhmut quickly or will Ukraine will stall Russia's advance? Will Ukraine withdraw or keep fighting in Bakhmut? What is the interplay between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense? This question is a specific, objective question which helps reflect those.
Resolution details
The specific location used for this question is: on the ISW interactive map, the dot if you search the address:
улица Юбилейная, 54, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84501
which is the address of Bakhmut Children's Hospital from Google Maps. The shading of the map over the center of the dot when fully zoomed in will be used for resolution.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
This location is pictured below with the map as of April 15.
[image](Other map sources or reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable. In that event, the deadline will be the end of day Ukraine time.)
Closely related, but using only red shading: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-western-bakhmut
|
2023-05-03T21:21:26
|
2023-05-15T16:59:00
|
2023-05-15T17:35:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IE13cIaria26hm3jlg6U
|
Will Starship reach space in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if SpaceX Starship reaches an altitude of at least 100km (the Karman line definition of space) in 2023, otherwise NO.
This question is about vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
(This question's criteria is chosen to be less ambiguous than the questions about whether it reaches orbit, where it is unclear whether a planned borderline-orbital test flight, with perigee within the atmosphere, counts as orbital.)
|
2023-05-03T20:14:22
|
2023-11-18T05:11:47
|
2023-11-18T05:11:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tKMsJzYtT0AebcTWBrb4
|
Will Ukraine Sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by September 30th, 2023?
|
This is a mirror of https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-september-30th-2023 and resolves the same as Insight Prediction resolves.
This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea at any point before September 31, 2023. The primary resolution source will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375. This market will resolve as yes if the ISW shows that Ukraine has broken Russia's land bridge, i.e., that Russia has no contiguous control over land that would allow it to drive to Crimea not counting the Kherch (Crimean) Bridge. This would require Ukraine taking back territory that includes at least some coastline between Henichesk and the Russian border near Taganrog, which would imply this territory not being colored in red on the map. For the purposes of this market, if the small strip of land to the south of "Molochnoye Ozera", south of Melitopol, is still red, it would classify as Russian continuing to have a land bridge from Russia, even if Ukraine bombs the bridge which actually connects that territory.
|
2023-05-03T20:01:17
|
2023-09-30T20:59:00
|
2023-10-01T06:04:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-byxEDrGbTaXUAA4uMD55
|
Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16724/hollywood-writers-strike-active-on-may-12th/
On May 3rd, Hollywood film and TV writers went on strike after the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers failed to reach a new contract agreement. The strike was prompted by streaming platforms shortening TV seasons and hiring fewer writers for briefer stints, and the shift to new models of consumption (like streaming).
|
2023-05-03T18:25:27
|
2023-05-12T22:00:00
|
2023-05-13T17:48:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JkzYKSmF8j2d2LFvgeUM
|
Will Vladimir Putin be alive by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves to NO if he dies anytime before 2024.
|
2023-05-03T14:01:49
|
2023-12-30T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T01:17:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uoUbM1GVdvrWySr6YKxs
|
Will another US bank be shut down by the FDIC in May? (After First Republic)
|
Resolves YES if after First Republic Bank's collapse on May 1 and before June 1 (eastern time), another US bank is placed into FDIC receivership according to https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/.
Background
The ongoing banking crisis has caused the collapse of several large regional banks including Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank, and several other regional banks appear to be on shaky footing with large stock price declines in the last few weeks.
https://apnews.com/article/pacwest-deposits-fed-regional-banks-e08b80e8f9f321c881a8b946172b1cdb
Uncertainty continues to pummel the banking industry, despite assurances from financial regulators and bankers such as Jamie Dimon this week that the worst of the recent crisis is over and the health of the banking system remains strong.
Bank shares have sold off on Wall Street this week following the government seizure and subsequent sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan. It was the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and the third failure of a midsize lender in two months.
Related question on whether contagion will affect the biggest US banks:
[markets]
|
2023-05-03T12:56:23
|
2023-05-31T20:59:00
|
2023-05-31T21:03:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eRHa9RQqtBcQnJ7aKKfI
|
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more worldwide than any other movie released in 2023?
|
This Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/
I will wait for all movies that could get within spitting distance to finish their initial run before resolving.
|
2023-05-03T12:23:55
|
2024-02-03T11:06:15
|
2024-02-03T11:06:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mWe0UJx5hjcNOOMZySJk
|
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any other movie released in 2023?
|
This Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve. Mario must have grossed the most (in terms of domestic take) of any movie on this list.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/?sort=domesticGrossToDate
I will wait for all movies that could get within spitting distance to finish their initial run before resolving.
|
2023-05-03T12:21:21
|
2023-09-20T00:44:38
|
2023-09-20T00:44:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oN00CzsPdcphIFmCZhBL
|
Will Amazon's acquisition of iRobot Corp be consummated before the end of 2024?
|
https://www.reuters.com/technology/uk-regulator-probes-amazons-planned-purchase-irobot-2023-04-18/
|
2023-05-03T10:36:39
|
2024-04-07T06:22:52
|
2024-04-07T06:22:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-udFn0qQtgIg4TBYxINQu
|
Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut on June 1st 2023?
|
Resolves YES if Ukraine is in control of the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on June 1, 2023 (12:00 GMT), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). For this Market we will use the search "Bakhmut, Donetsk, UKR" and the central dot located therein.
If this area is not shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area shaded red the market resolves NO.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
Resolution criteria based on https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-apri (which was base on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023)
[image]
|
2023-05-03T10:36:28
|
2023-06-01T03:00:00
|
2023-06-01T04:40:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kRd5JRPTIhDSukHIKyJg
|
Will Japan intercept a North Korean missile before the end of 2023?
|
Missile tests and real world combat both count.
|
2023-05-03T09:15:33
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:05:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lu7iMy7ZqiZXNaFO9puJ
|
Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win their West Semifinals Series against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games).
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-05-03T04:11:49
|
2023-05-12T21:47:26
|
2023-05-12T21:47:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ipq4mNcvXitjk55fucp4
|
Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win Game 6 of the West Semifinals against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 5 games.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545236
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-05-03T04:07:17
|
2023-05-12T21:46:19
|
2023-05-12T21:46:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zJ3HEyuLxVsWlO6s9aQ7
|
Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win Game 5 of the West Semifinals against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 4 games.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545235
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-05-03T04:04:58
|
2023-05-10T21:32:35
|
2023-05-10T21:32:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XHnBF3cAuFemAM4Jtz2Y
|
Will the #6 Golden State Warriors win Game 4 of the West Semifinals against the #7 LA Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545234
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-05-03T04:03:05
|
2023-05-08T22:00:00
|
2023-05-09T04:57:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2wy1uIkmTOXFQBRxm2R3
|
Will Destiny have another conversation with JustPearlyThings by the end of June, 2023?
|
Market will get resolved YES if he has another conversation with JustPearlyThings by the end of June, 2023
Market will get resolved NO if he does not have another conversation with JustPearlyThings by the end of June, 2023
|
2023-05-03T03:03:15
|
2023-06-30T14:59:00
|
2023-07-10T04:54:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DJ3FUplme3vmQy1UYPWP
|
Will winner of the 2023 Formula 1 Championship be decided before October?
|
Resolves to YES if the driver leading the championship has a greater gap to the driver in second place, than there are potential points remaining after the results of the Japanese Grand Prix.
In the case neither the Japanese GP or Qatar GP are held, this market will resolve at the end of September.
Resolves to NO if no champion has been decided before October 1st.
|
2023-05-03T02:17:30
|
2023-09-30T14:59:00
|
2023-10-02T10:16:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BE5hsQ7M2AGfzj6EWk7H
|
Will France make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-03T01:14:38
|
2023-10-15T17:55:33
|
2023-10-15T17:55:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WSGQfaBG1l0Pmry9iIz9
|
Will England make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-03T00:47:29
|
2023-10-15T17:55:03
|
2023-10-15T17:55:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fPSZWu2SXA4apcUTxfmb
|
Will Ireland make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-03T00:44:17
|
2023-10-14T17:04:49
|
2023-10-14T17:04:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tee1u69azr5XsMfgM4pT
|
Will South Africa make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-03T00:43:10
|
2023-10-15T17:55:20
|
2023-10-15T17:55:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DRcQ6XX76jsKJfMyQ6KI
|
Will New Zealand make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-03T00:42:07
|
2023-10-14T17:05:15
|
2023-10-14T17:05:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LrqehdLE2wPCprvJ2CJO
|
Will there be 20 bank failures?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-02T19:54:40
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:42:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VsCzZCMsXhIpWmH3c3un
|
Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 660k subscribers in May?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets]
|
2023-05-02T19:01:47
|
2023-05-21T18:06:36
|
2023-05-21T18:06:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-leNSdNAXlsTjLT8J6AKl
|
Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 659k subscribers in May?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets]
|
2023-05-02T19:01:13
|
2023-05-19T09:50:11
|
2023-05-19T09:50:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jREGpkAzxxV8yKTJCzP7
|
Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 658k subscribers in May?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets]
|
2023-05-02T19:00:34
|
2023-05-20T05:49:34
|
2023-05-20T05:49:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YAcq5Mb63HuDVdcZTbZW
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on January 1st, 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-02T15:22:10
|
2023-12-31T15:01:00
|
2024-01-01T01:01:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bWELiylqsiyt4SvY4tFM
|
Will there be a public discussion between Goeffrey Hinton and Eliezer Yudkowsky?
|
Inspired by this tweet: https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1653054615263514625
Hinton: In the NYT today, Cade Metz implies that I left Google so that I could criticize Google. Actually, I left so that I could talk about the dangers of AI without considering how this impacts Google. Google has acted very responsibly.
@EliezerYudkowsky: I am amazed and touched. My DMs are open to you if you'd like to talk danger details, either to learn my model or teach me yours, ambitiously to converge arguments or less ambitiously to establish common knowledge of differences.
Resolves YES if some talk between the two gets published before November (~half a year). The topic must be AI risk. Could be live or recorded. Could be video or just audio. One or two additional people could participate as moderator or host.
Written interview does not count. Announcement or paywalled does not count either.
|
2023-05-02T14:44:03
|
2023-10-31T15:59:00
|
2023-11-01T02:42:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KdF6pIS2cdvt31Linve9
|
Will Destiny talk to Avi again by the end of May?
|
Their most recent conversation was on 5/2/23.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/v8_uPNlNt0A)
|
2023-05-02T11:49:50
|
2023-05-06T14:22:24
|
2023-05-06T14:22:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6KrxaslHXh80zfvCcRD2
|
Will Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard be consummated before the end of 2024?
|
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/uk-blocks-microsoft-69-bln-activision-deal-over-cloud-gaming-concerns-2023-04-26/
|
2023-05-02T11:39:06
|
2023-10-19T19:41:50
|
2023-10-19T19:41:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zPKRgxRj6BN9iHDP7POX
|
Will the Albertsons/Kroger Merger be Consummated before the end of 2024?
|
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4598539-albertsonskroger-merger-likely-not-consummated-indicators
|
2023-05-02T11:35:46
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F6RlkvnqehWLYh2AKQxO
|
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16718/ai-time-person-of-the-year-in-2023/
Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its Person of the Year, who "for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year." While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically "The Computer" in 1982 and "Endangered Earth" in 1988.
Since the release of ChatGPT, there seems to have been a significant increase in interest in topics related to artificial intelligence (AI). For example, Google searches for AI-related topics have increased significantly, and ChatGPT made it to the cover of Time.
|
2023-05-02T10:43:24
|
2023-12-06T10:23:44
|
2023-12-06T10:23:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-91nPYrtIk6prHSVFftpZ
|
Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2024?
|
Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least one large exchange without an intermediate fiat step. If a company has announced this, they do not need to have implemented the payment system by the resolution date for the question to resolve positive, as long as they are still widely expected to do so. This question is about the state of the world on 1/1/25; if a company announces this but then backtracks before then, it will not qualify.
This is question is a variant of a question from the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest.
|
2023-05-02T10:11:00
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T17:02:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GLbzXBPEaaPCOIY9kIBD
|
Will Destiny talk to Kidology again by the end of May?
|
Their most recent convo was on 5/1/23.
[markets]
|
2023-05-02T10:05:01
|
2023-06-01T03:49:44
|
2023-06-01T03:49:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-unUTSYc51VSYQaX9XR4E
|
Will Elon Musk step down from being head of Twitter before the end of Jun 2024?
|
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097
[image]
|
2023-05-02T09:30:07
|
2023-06-08T19:10:49
|
2023-06-08T19:10:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bEcjrSrSQwkLdZfQ1Ab6
|
Will the fed funds rate peak above 5.5% in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-02T08:40:11
|
2023-12-31T15:01:08
|
2023-12-31T15:01:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kyA8xVTIiXyzY4vceSFH
|
Will undersea infrastructure be attacked in 2023?
|
Spirit of the market: Will another attack like Nord Stream 2 happen in the rest of 2023, or on smaller internet cables.
There is a lot of undersea infrastructure that is very vulnerable to attack, not well patrolled and easy to target. Largely not under attack because everyone is at peace with each other.
Will resolve yes if undersea cables or pipelines are, beyond reasonable doubt, the target of attacks. Could be internet cables, power cables or gas pipelines. Has to be outside of the Ukraine/Russia conflict.
As this is somewhat subjective I will not bet in this market.
|
2023-05-02T08:09:48
|
2024-01-01T04:34:44
|
2024-01-01T04:34:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b3h7j9x3FpnAZunxWnAa
|
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of September, 2024?
|
If it can play games that the old Switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube).
If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Advance SP).
|
2023-05-02T04:18:10
|
2024-10-01T18:46:24
|
2024-10-01T18:46:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pYmt7KzNkHu88QXZfvRy
|
Will Argentina make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-02T03:13:04
|
2023-10-20T14:21:18
|
2023-10-20T14:21:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mKluPQ775IBwC8A2iACb
|
Will France make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-02T03:12:15
|
2023-10-15T17:54:51
|
2023-10-15T17:54:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Oq9YOJQzfp4OlK3XZz7P
|
Will Ireland make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-02T03:11:38
|
2023-10-14T17:05:53
|
2023-10-14T17:05:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SakhCqQyojH747UlPTbE
|
Will England make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-02T03:11:08
|
2023-10-21T15:48:49
|
2023-10-21T15:48:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VB338QZ5ydqeLCa9FPuP
|
Will South Africa make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-02T03:10:49
|
2023-10-21T15:48:15
|
2023-10-21T15:48:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mIwbzhhD8HbdbfLf85cy
|
Will New Zealand make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.
|
2023-05-02T03:09:35
|
2023-10-20T14:20:36
|
2023-10-20T14:20:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Fxb3xQwGC41Uw7dR3un4
|
Will US inflation be above 4.0% in May 2023?
|
Resolves YES if CPI-U is above 303.988 in the May 2023 release (to be released Jun 13th)
|
2023-05-02T01:53:34
|
2023-06-13T05:30:58
|
2023-06-13T05:30:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VUW8dOywj6VsGOL2CZaR
|
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' get nominated for an Oscar in any category at the 96th Academy Awards?
|
If 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gets nominated for an Oscar in any category at the 96th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise NO.
|
2023-05-02T00:31:22
|
2024-01-23T08:22:51
|
2024-01-23T08:22:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xU7cNMuXnOSci6BvpAyK
|
Will Destiny play Counter Strike 2 on stream within 1 month after it comes out?
|
May 2, 2:33am: Will Destiny play Counter Strike 2 within 1 month after it comes out? → Will Destiny play Counter Strike 2 on stream within 1 month after it comes out?
|
2023-05-01T21:36:48
|
2023-11-26T20:12:57
|
2023-11-26T20:12:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-42qKhkyQcPKO3LRbRmj3
|
Will the Hollywood writer strike last more than 100 days?
|
The Writers Guild of America (WGA) are starting a strike on Tuesday May 2nd, 2023, after contract negotiations broke down. The last WGA strike, in 2007, lasted 100 days. Will this strike last that long?
Resolves YES if the WGA is still on strike on August 10, 2023 (and has been striking for the entire time). Resolves NO if the WGA stops striking before then.
|
2023-05-01T21:34:17
|
2023-08-09T20:59:00
|
2023-08-09T21:31:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sAXXjBtMrZ9cR6nawUq2
|
Will S&P 500 increase in May 2023?
|
The S&P closed at 4076.60 in January, 3970.15 in February, 4109.31 in March, and 4169.48 in April. Will it increase from open on 2023-05-01 (4166.79) to close on 2023-05-31 (4179.83)?
Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
|
2023-05-01T17:47:43
|
2023-06-01T13:53:56
|
2023-06-01T13:53:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nLpO47AeH3441acz40Ss
|
Will Biden, Trump and Putin survive through 2023?
|
if any die it's no
|
2023-05-01T17:18:12
|
2024-01-01T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:29:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fT7zUjvouu0zJnl6bWMf
|
Will the Tate brothers get charged with sex/human trafficking in Romania?
|
Resolved NO if no charges are filed against the Tates in the current proceedings
Resolved YES if Charges are filed
|
2023-05-01T16:29:54
|
2023-07-14T13:04:22
|
2023-07-14T13:04:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nzWH2iUmIuYwzqAFj7Bv
|
Will Dianne Feinstein resign before July 1?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-01T10:34:20
|
2023-06-30T13:59:00
|
2023-06-30T14:31:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OxvhdQIWZrSZBzyhXPbM
|
Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of July?
|
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of
Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of July? <--- you are here
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-02862167f734
@/Mqrius/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-690f4cc6f4cb
|
2023-05-01T06:04:37
|
2023-07-31T20:59:00
|
2023-07-31T23:51:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PIT4pkrroh0M6DH4ZQXn
|
Will Destiny appear on Lilly's Brush It Off Podcast in 2023?
|
[image]
|
2023-05-01T04:53:09
|
2023-08-01T00:16:43
|
2023-08-01T00:16:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QqYDddZ5dOcA6CWkb4ZL
|
Will Destiny appear on Lilly's Brush It Off Podcast in May?
|
[image]
|
2023-05-01T04:52:03
|
2023-05-31T15:22:10
|
2023-05-31T15:22:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZM19VJBMVFhsbSx6hC7N
|
Will Destiny talk to Brittany Simon by the end of 2023?
|
[markets]
|
2023-05-01T04:05:59
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:09:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W5rEpDkNxnfP4gHOKOZt
|
Will Destiny talk to Adin Ross in May?
|
[markets]
|
2023-05-01T04:02:48
|
2023-06-01T03:51:02
|
2023-06-01T03:51:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pb26Q8PsB18Tf4yofOBj
|
Will Destiny talk to LowTierGod in May?
|
[markets]
|
2023-05-01T03:47:21
|
2023-06-01T03:53:28
|
2023-06-01T03:53:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SybNMr9T10SXgFy9c9s5
|
Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of July?
|
The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.
Mainstream media sources include the Washington Post, CNN, Fox, NPR, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Economist etc. Rando Twitter accounts do not count.
[markets]
|
2023-05-01T03:38:42
|
2023-07-31T23:59:00
|
2023-08-01T11:31:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AGINljaiqNMkKuNBwVf2
|
Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of June?
|
The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.
Mainstream media sources include the Washington Post, CNN, Fox, NPR, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Economist etc. Rando Twitter accounts do not count.
[markets]
|
2023-05-01T03:31:25
|
2023-07-01T19:39:38
|
2023-07-01T19:39:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.