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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-QANzNHog2VEjZvMjWHID
|
Will Destiny play Factorio on stream by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-05-01T03:29:09
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-03T06:31:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uwaeUKYUMZFvxKQGLANO
|
Will Apple announce a major update to Siri at WWDC 2023?
|
Will Apple announce a major update to Siri at WWDC 2023? It can be announced at the keynote event or any of the following events during WWDC. "Major" is defined fairly broadly - it can't just be adding a few new apps or a few new features, but it doesn't have to be a complete overhaul.
|
2023-05-01T03:24:03
|
2023-06-05T13:47:11
|
2023-06-05T13:47:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CyqRGXSaDwwa5t4gY6bt
|
Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of May?
|
The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.
Mainstream media sources include the Washington Post, CNN, Fox, NPR, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Economist etc. Rando Twitter accounts do not count.
[markets]
|
2023-05-01T03:24:01
|
2023-06-01T03:59:36
|
2023-06-01T16:55:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QvfgwvYs23UjynsC49CZ
|
Will Destiny receive a community note on any of his tweets before June 2023?
|
Will destiny make a tweet that is so misleading or factually wrong that it is marked with a community note?
|
2023-05-01T03:02:39
|
2023-05-31T23:59:00
|
2023-06-03T14:13:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1BrDgCHeXVHWQZMBGsLR
|
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
|
Question is about any models by competitors vs any current or future openAI models.
To surpass chatGPT, it cannot just be more popular. If a language model exists that is undoubtedly the most accurate, reliable, capable, and powerful, that model will win regardless of popularity (provided, at least some members of the public have access).
If there is dispute as to which is more powerful, a significant popularity/accessibility advantage will decide the winner. There must be public access for it to be eligible.
Explaining the three main metrics for assessment:
1. Popularity and Accessibility
Assessed in real-terms. Total users and engagement (if public), otherwise I will defer to google trends or other publicly available data which can provide relative measures of popularity.
This metric is arguably most important, but is not the only factor as if an Android or iPhone AI gets pushed to existing OS, the existing assistant leaders in those areas (e.g. Siri, Google Assistant) will have a meaningful advantage, irrespective of product quality.
The popularity and userbase elements are essentially being used as a substitute for "usefulness".
2. Accuracy and Reliability
Assessed against a common set of questions or data, to be determined. I expect there will be studies or other academic materials published which I hope to refer to. If these papers conclude that "ExampleRacistBot" is more accurate than chatGPT because of censoring, etc. then "ExampleRacistBot" would be the more accurate model.
3. Power & Capability
Total computational ability, based on whichever metrics seem most relevant at the time. Right now those might be:
Number of Parameters
Tokens/words processed
Problem-solving abilities
Trainability (an example of an ongoing trainability exercise with GPT4: @/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to
If there are any recommendations for Power & Capability metrics, please let me know. The biggest issue I see is that if I establish which metrics are most important (say; number of parameters, like everyone did for GPT3) we may end up in a situation like we are now, where GPT4 parameters are not disclosed. Expect this criteria to change over time.
Resolution Assessment
When the final assessment is being made, if there aren't reliable competitive grounds for comparison, the following series of checks are how I see the decisionmaking process going.
First check: Popularity. If one model is evidently significantly more popular (like >50% market share, or more popular by Google Trend metrics, etc.), then it will be considered the best unless there is evidence suggesting an alternative public AI is more accurate and powerful. If multiple models are within a similar frame of power and accuracy, popularity will determine the winner.
Second check: If there are multiple models of similar popularity, accuracy and power will determine the winner. If there are no good academic comparisons for accuracy, I will endeavour to conduct my own, but I'm really hoping someone else figures that out before I have to. Accuracy seems more tied to "usefulness" than power, but if there is a significant breakthrough in power such that one has a capability advantage over the other (like advanced logic problem solving) while maintaining accuracy, and for whatever reason it's not more popular but still public, that will win.
Third check: If there are multiple models of comparable popularity (or there is terrible data available) and there is no real clear difference in the capability, power, or accuracy - the decision will be deferred to more specific considerations, like a Google Trends comparison (relative search popularity) or the number of parameters (provided this is public, and still a respected metric)
If the decision becomes highly-subjective, I will defer judgement to someone I deem to be an expert (and have reasonable access to) who will make the final call. I'll probably just email professors until I get a response, or ask someone enrolled in a related course at the time to ask their professor to respond.
[ Taking advice for updates or any proposed criteria changes ]
Competing for @AmmonLam's subsidy
[Changelog]
01/05/2023: Description updated to reflect thoughts expanded on in comments
|
2023-05-01T02:58:40
|
2024-12-31T05:29:00
|
2024-12-31T05:59:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5pg92yAUDI1DN3bNszHH
|
Will Trump be indicted again by the end of October?
|
Georgia prosecutor: Grand jury investigating Trump could decide charges this summer
[markets]
|
2023-04-30T22:30:48
|
2023-06-09T11:37:16
|
2023-06-09T11:37:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ODCOjx0h8BaXQyN3hQDN
|
Will Trump be indicted again by the end of September?
|
Georgia prosecutor: Grand jury investigating Trump could decide charges this summer
[markets]
|
2023-04-30T22:30:04
|
2023-06-09T11:37:31
|
2023-06-09T11:37:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0YTUpEbHDW7h7Vz9nj8r
|
Will Trump be indicted again by the end of August?
|
Georgia prosecutor: Grand jury investigating Trump could decide charges this summer
[markets]
|
2023-04-30T22:28:53
|
2023-06-09T11:37:41
|
2023-06-09T11:37:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mwByHj7LLUdGtVSc9waS
|
Will Trump be indicted again by the end of July?
|
Georgia prosecutor: Grand jury investigating Trump could decide charges this summer
[markets]
|
2023-04-30T22:23:36
|
2023-06-09T11:37:52
|
2023-06-09T11:37:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-obkkLHjKWBZ4wVbifKDw
|
Will Trump be indicted again by the end of June?
|
Georgia prosecutor: Grand jury investigating Trump could decide charges this summer
[markets]
|
2023-04-30T22:00:04
|
2023-06-09T11:38:03
|
2023-06-09T11:38:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WLY8070XpB9LNo1szTRH
|
Will Trump be indicted again by the end of May?
|
Georgia prosecutor: Grand jury investigating Trump could decide charges this summer
[markets]
|
2023-04-30T21:57:21
|
2023-06-01T04:01:09
|
2023-06-01T04:01:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zq3TUWQxqiLSXU57rKOH
|
Will the #6 seed Golden State Warriors defeat the #7 Los Angeles Lakers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
Series long bet.
|
2023-04-30T21:33:05
|
2023-05-12T21:46:17
|
2023-05-12T21:46:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zERcfMU8rzbguyCmciis
|
Will anyone submit a 100% speedrun of Nintendo's TotK with a time under 25 hours to speedrun.com before the end of 2023?
|
Will resolve using the "Submitted by:" time in the speedrun.com UI.
Equivalent market for 10 hours
Equivalent market for 50 hours
|
2023-04-30T20:07:21
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:28:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uMhLPrCaiBYwgq3Jiniy
|
Will there be more than 20,000 Subway stores at the end of 2024?
|
Resolve to Yes if there are more than 20,000 Subway stores in the US at the end of 2024
Resolution according to the numbers provided here. The most recent counts reported in the webpages below at the end of 2024 will be used for resolution (even if those counts are a few months old)
https://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/Subway-USA/#:~:text=Number%20of%20Subway%20stores%20in%20the%20United%20States%20in%202023&text=There%20are%2020%2C664%20Subway%20stores,Subway%20stores%20in%20the%20US.
|
2023-04-30T19:02:02
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B4e0wWumhhq6aNAH7db3
|
Did Scott Alexander enter his own book review contest (May 2023)?
|
From https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-274 :
> Last year people kept guessing that various reviews were by me, and I had to reassure you that no, I hadn’t secretly entered my own contest. This year I refuse to confirm or deny anything, so have fun speculating!
If there is no definitive statement on this from Scott 32 days after announcing the contest winner, resolves NO. Otherwise resolves to what Scott says.
|
2023-04-30T18:41:37
|
2023-09-15T14:38:36
|
2023-09-15T14:38:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WkkeZOvtV6zfIPKcwNJR
|
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US before the end of 2023?
|
Start counting from market creation
|
2023-04-30T18:36:20
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:25:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fEJ0RAW3u1LkyiotC3rd
|
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 10 people in the US before the end of 2023?
|
Start counting from market creation
|
2023-04-30T18:36:11
|
2023-12-22T12:29:40
|
2023-12-22T12:29:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1wYPLJLXvc91SbACcOd9
|
Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16327/israels-rating-in-freedom-in-the-world-2024/
Freedom in the World is a yearly report that measures the degree of civil liberties and political rights in the different countries in the World. It is published by the NGO Freedom House.
Each country gets two scores: one for civil liberties and the other for political rights. The scale of the scores is 1-7, where 1 is the best score (highest degree of liberty/rights) and 7 is the worst. If the sum of the country’s two scores is 5 or lower, it is rated as (Fully) Free. If it’s greater than 5 but lower than 11, it’s rated as Partly Free. If it’s 11 or more, it’s rated as Not Free.
Israel has always been rated as (Fully) Free in the report, since the first report (1973). In the latest report, that was published in March 2023 and covers the year of 2022, Israel’s score for Civil liberties was 3 and its score for Political Rights was 2. The sum of the two scores is 5, hence making Israel rated as Free . Currently, 84 countries are rated Free, 54 are rated Partly Free and 47 are rated Not Free.
Israel’s scores have been declining in recent years. While in the years 2006 to 2017 Israel’s Civil Liberties score was 2 and its score for Political Rights was 1, Since 2018 the scores declined. In 2019 it got to scores of 2 and 3, which remained since then. This level of scores had not been seen in Israel since the 1977 report. However, the declines have not been enough to change Israel’s rating, which remains Free.
In November 2022 a new government was elected. The new government, formed in the last days of December 2022, contains some far-right elements. In January 2023 the government started legislating a judicial reform, that strip some power from the judicial system. In response, mass protests and strikes erupted. The reforms would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional.
In late March 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a temporary pause to the legislation. The main opposition parties welcomed the decision very cautiously. The street demonstrations did not stop, however, as many participants denounced the freeze as temporary.
The attempts to legislate the judicial reform are not yet reflected in the latest Freedom in the World report, as it covers the year of 2022 and the legislation began in January 2023. The next report, covering the year 2023, is supposed to be published in early 2024. It is uncertain whether the judicial reform will pass until then, and if it does – what would its effect on Israel’s freedom ratings be.
More information about the reform and protests can be found on Wikipedia.
|
2023-04-30T16:33:49
|
2024-02-28T20:59:00
|
2024-03-08T19:13:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uzTrBkjLp3LkLZtkmFV6
|
Will ADHD medication alteration be proven true by 2024?
|
In the aftermath of the stimulant shortage in the US, many users (such as on TikTok) are reporting their medication stopping working, or testing negative on drug tests. It seems to be with a variety of medications, but some theories are specific to the Vyvanse patent expiring.
Will there be any merit to these claims, or is it mass hysteria? Resolves yes if there is any reputable proof reported by the end of 2024 that manufacturers were altering composition of the medication.
|
2023-04-30T13:26:07
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-03T19:39:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ClxnocUGxRWEE131lWsW
|
Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?
|
Right now, the five biggest companies in the S&P 500, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Alphabet (both share classes) are 21.0% of the value of the S&P. Usually, the top-five share is lower. But it's possible that returns to scale are higher than they used to be, and that there's a secular trend towards larger companies.
For the purpose of this question, I'd treat multiple classes of stock as representing the same company (and, in the edge case where the biggest company has tracking stock, it's still going to count as one company). But spinoffs would not count, e.g. if Amazon spins off AWS, we would not add the value of the two surviving companies.
This question is not asking if today's top five will collectively be 21.0% of the market, just if the top five will have that share.
|
2023-04-30T12:35:15
|
2025-01-01T21:59:00
|
2025-01-02T07:28:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EbLly9cz8pgd6KktOY5f
|
Will Vladimir Putin step foot in Ukraine by the end of 2024?
|
Anywhere within the pre-war border linked:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_border#/media/File:Map_of_Ukraine_border_with_Russia.png
|
2023-04-30T11:26:29
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-21T05:08:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AZk4OmQG8U2nbn3otX91
|
Will Ron DeSantis be one of the top two candidates in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?
|
Resolves to YES if Ron DeSantis comes either first or second in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, where this is judged based on number of delegates, then by votes if there is a tie. Resolves to NO if he comes third or lower, or is not a candidate.
|
2023-04-30T10:01:10
|
2024-01-24T03:12:41
|
2024-01-24T03:12:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-71T67LdNvXTiGcDaTBVJ
|
Will Ron DeSantis be one of the top two candidates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses?
|
Resolves to YES if Ron DeSantis comes either first or second in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, where this is judged based on number of delegates, then by votes if there is a tie. Resolves to NO if he comes third or lower, or is not a candidate.
|
2023-04-30T10:01:07
|
2024-01-16T00:34:38
|
2024-01-16T00:34:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UnhjvWLFiLMOSypyVX1V
|
Will McLaren finish ahead of Alpine in the 2023 Formula 1 (F1) Constructors World Championship?
|
Resolves yes if McLaren finishes ahead of Renault. In the event of a points tie, the ranking is based on race victories in first place, then in second place and so on...
|
2023-04-30T09:28:04
|
2023-11-24T00:12:55
|
2023-11-24T00:12:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L
|
Will Ding Liren repeat as World Chess Champion?
|
Yes if he successfully defends his title
No if he does not
|
2023-04-30T08:51:51
|
2024-12-12T22:25:47
|
2024-12-12T22:25:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OjfWiU8aEsZDHy7YoblH
|
Will GPT-4 solve any freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (2023)
|
Resolves YES if someone finds a fixed prompt as defined in the main market that succeeds at solving any Sudoku puzzle listed at Sudoku - Free daily Sudoku games from the Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) that was generated after the comment was posted.
You are allowed to experiment with ChatGPT, but judging will be done with the API with temperature set to 0 for reproducibility.
Any puzzle - easy, medium, or hard - will qualify. No other puzzle provider is allowed for this market.
Solution must be posted in the comments in 2023, and later confirmation of solution must also be posted in the comments. Market creator will not proactively check solutions against every new puzzle, but will check solutions that are found and posted.
Related markets
Main market: @/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to
GPT-3.5 no finetuning: @/Mira/will-gpt35-solve-any-freshlygenerat
GPT-3.5 finetuning allowed: @/Mira/will-finetuned-gpt35-solve-any-fres
GPT-4: @/Mira/m100-subsidy-will-gpt4-solve-any-fr-c5b090d547d1
|
2023-04-30T04:32:37
|
2023-12-09T07:08:48
|
2023-12-11T16:25:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q4nvS02mUDShNZfb2ZcD
|
(M100 subsidy) Will GPT-4 solve any freshly-generated Sudoku puzzle? (May 2023)
|
Resolves YES if someone finds a fixed prompt as defined in the main market that succeeds at solving any Sudoku puzzle listed at Sudoku - New York Times Number Puzzles - The New York Times (nytimes.com) that was generated after the comment was posted.
You are allowed to experiment with ChatGPT, but judging will be done with the API with temperature set to 0 for reproducibility.
I have given the link to easy puzzles, but medium or hard would also be acceptable. No other puzzle provider is allowed for this market.
Solution must be posted in the comments in May 2023, and later confirmation of solution must also be posted in the comments. Market creator will not proactively check solutions against every new puzzle, but will check solutions that are found and posted.
Main market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to)
|
2023-04-30T04:26:21
|
2023-05-31T23:59:00
|
2023-06-01T00:09:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-54Gdc4zMspOOIdsUR3n1
|
Will Destiny s̶t̶i̶l̶l̶ have blue hair at the start of 2024?
|
Resolves to YES if some part of Destiny's hair is blue at the end of 2023. Even brown hair with blue highlights will count as a YES.
Only his hair color at market close date matters. If he cuts his hair or dyes it a different color, it all doesn't matter as long as he dyes it blue again before the end of the year.
|
2023-04-30T03:15:10
|
2024-01-01T11:55:28
|
2024-01-01T11:55:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EOfELKA9NNOP1Wq8vjPp
|
Will anyone lose at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? (v2)
|
I relaunch this market after resolution of the fisrt one :
https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-anyone-lose-at-least-m1000000
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "lose" by M$1,000,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only resolved market loss counts.
Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count. This means WvM doesn't count.
500,000 version : https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-anyone-lose-at-least-m500000-o-ee0332bd10bd
2,000,000 version : https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-anyone-lose-at-least-m2000000-f24acd1bbac1
|
2023-04-30T00:44:53
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T01:27:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vOu9GOS1ifbXWU3NWhiK
|
Will PredictIt cease balance withdrawal anytime through 2023?
|
Resolves YES if PredictIt ceases balance withdrawal anytime through 2023 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues).
If users are only allowed to withdraw their partial balance (after subtracting normal withdrawing fee), this market also resolves YES.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Background: PredictIt was ordered by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023. However, on January 26 an appeals court granted an injunction allowing PredictIt to continue to operate while a court case is considered.
|
2023-04-29T21:00:29
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T06:17:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EGCxBRAhIqjsZLp9vLvA
|
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through March 2024?
|
Resolves NO if PredictIt ceases operating markets at any time through March 2024 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues).
Resolves YES otherwise.
Background: PredictIt was ordered by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023. However, on January 26 an appeals court granted an injunction allowing PredictIt to continue to operate while a court case is considered.
relevant market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m-30f4ace7be5f)
|
2023-04-29T20:57:02
|
2024-04-02T12:48:04
|
2024-04-02T12:48:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MHIokeoRyRQiVDxfCCa1
|
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through June 2024?
|
Resolves NO if PredictIt ceases operating markets at any time through June 2024 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues).
Resolves YES otherwise.
Background: PredictIt was ordered by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023. However, on January 26 an appeals court granted an injunction allowing PredictIt to continue to operate while a court case is considered.
|
2023-04-29T20:56:41
|
2024-06-29T23:59:00
|
2024-06-30T09:14:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-up8B6JTIw2HgUEv1HRru
|
Will an LLM have been reported to earn or gain cryptocurrency by EOY 2023?
|
Resolves true if there is credible reporting (from media, Twitter, etc.) that a large language model such as GPT4 has earned or otherwise gained cryptocurrency through any means, though without being directly programmed to do so.
Human prompting and human intention to get GPT4 to gain cryptocurrency can still count for positive resolution.
Credibility and resolution will be determined solely by my subjective judgement, though I will allow 48 hours of discussion prior to resolution. I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.
|
2023-04-29T15:27:49
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T03:56:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QdlTRsGbjLI4b0OaHieb
|
Will Destiny Reach 1,000,000 Subscribers In 2024
|
The question resolves to 'yes' if Destiny's main Youtube channel reaches, or exceeds, 1,000,000 subscribers by 2025-01-01
If his channel gets banned/deleted before reaching 1M the question will also resolve 'no'
|
2023-04-29T15:05:37
|
2024-12-31T16:00:00
|
2025-01-02T09:12:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tIsFawm2FmsDWSYiaCRA
|
Will agent-LLM-populated virtual worlds be popular in 2024?
|
Prediction #21 from @ZviMowshowitz's post On AutoGPT:
The first popular online Sims-Westworlds, settings where many if not most or all non-human characters are agent-LLMs, will start coming out quickly, with early systems available within a few months at most, and the first popular and actually fun one within the year even if underlying LLM tech does not much advance. There will be lots of them in 2024, both single player and multiplayer, running the whole range from classrooms to very adult themes.
Edit: Some clarification, it must be an interactive graphical video game. Agent LLM NPCs means not just LLM generated NPC dialogue but where an NPC's actions are determined by an LLM, such as an internal LLM monologue which is not visible to players.
Popular is defined as more than one high quality game available, with multiple media articles noting the popularity of games of this type.
|
2023-04-29T03:23:27
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:20:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LPjQCBoSKZXXRdK6Jogy
|
Will GPT-4 be public during 2023?
|
Open API
|
2023-04-28T22:54:34
|
2023-07-17T09:32:07
|
2023-07-17T09:32:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JrIjKfGhsw4wlpMphBHO
|
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 Presidential election?
|
Resolves as expected.
|
2023-04-28T20:41:46
|
2024-01-21T14:09:14
|
2024-01-21T14:09:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tobIElTFbmi818tRx8Wj
|
Barbie vs Oppenheimer (Metascore)
|
Which movie will have the higher metascore on Metacritic?
Yes = Barbie
No = Oppenheimer
|
2023-04-28T20:04:50
|
2023-07-21T14:59:00
|
2023-07-22T04:52:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Yoo2IcO8rhPhW3HXlS4k
|
Will the 00 block be mined in the next couple days?
|
According to the closing time of this market, so not exactly two days.
|
2023-04-28T18:50:35
|
2023-04-29T16:40:47
|
2023-04-29T16:40:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XbTx55a7Ah9SXXNkOGWi
|
If Avraham Eisenberg does not enter a guilty plea, will he be found guilty of a felony?
|
Avraham Eisenberg is a microcelebrity in crypto and prediction market circles. He was arrested for financial crimes and was denied bail. He currently sits in jail awaiting his trial. You can find more information about his alleged crime here. His trial is currently scheduled for December 2023.
This question resolves to YES if before January 1st 2028, Avraham Eisenberg is found guilty of any felony offense that he has been charged with as of April 28th 2023, which was not the result of a guilty plea, and NO if either all currently pending felony charges as of April 28th 2023 are dropped or dismissed or he is found not guilty of all of them. If he pleads guilty to any of the currently pending felony offenses before 2028, this question will resolve to N/A.
If he is not convicted of any of the currently pending felonies before January 1st 2028, then this question resolves to NO.
|
2023-04-28T18:29:31
|
2024-04-18T10:32:12
|
2024-04-18T10:32:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2imjJDVRzwjqt4oHQLwx
|
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win their East Semifinals Series against the #3 Philadelphia 76ers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games).
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-04-28T18:22:50
|
2023-05-14T15:11:35
|
2023-05-14T15:53:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kql3ogSCS1okV61CjylQ
|
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 7 of the East Semifinals against the #3 Philadelphia 76ers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. This market will resolve to N/A if the series is won in 6 games.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545117
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-04-28T18:19:04
|
2023-05-14T15:08:28
|
2023-05-14T15:08:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fnvaH5xZToOeuakGcxg0
|
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 4 of the East Semifinals against the #3 Philadelphia 76ers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545114
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-04-28T18:15:03
|
2023-05-07T15:30:00
|
2023-05-07T16:15:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BwyQVegSljaEoLVdalbi
|
Will the #2 Boston Celtics win Game 2 of the East Semifinals against the #3 Philadelphia 76ers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401545112
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-04-28T18:12:21
|
2023-05-03T19:19:52
|
2023-05-03T19:20:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h69RsVqAOV5cEtilC4mG
|
Will First Republic Bank be shut down by the FDIC in April?
|
Resolves YES if First Republic Bank is placed into FDIC receivership in April (eastern time), otherwise NO.
See https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/.
|
2023-04-28T15:36:42
|
2023-04-30T20:59:00
|
2023-05-01T05:45:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kC3PGIeJ5wys3a2vroSf
|
Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16525/adobe-acquires-figma-by-end-of-2023/
On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an agreement to purchase Figma for $20 billion USD.
Since then, reports have emerged that the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal.
Adobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe no longer lists XD in its product lineup and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store.
|
2023-04-28T12:33:12
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00
|
2023-12-31T18:06:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WmcUhZz2ROcO9I5WluVb
|
Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16641/us-financial-crisis-before-july-1-2023/
When Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) jumped to a value of 1.56, the highest value since 2020.
(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=12WiC&width=670&height=475)Since then, the Financial Stress Index has returned to typical levels, despite continued challenges in the banking system and concerns about the risks posed by Non-Bank Financial Institutions, also known as "shadow banks". Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial crisis, recently told the Financial Times:
We can never abolish financial crises. They will always happen.
|
2023-04-28T11:55:32
|
2023-06-30T11:00:00
|
2023-07-06T18:48:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8ErB07J8yEgYYbM7Mb5A
|
Will Biden’s student debt forgiveness program ever payout?
|
United States president Joe Biden used an executive action to create a student loan forgiveness program, where students could be releaved of $10,000, or $20,000 based on a criteria. However it has been blocked by lawsuits before it could ever be enacted on, and is now in the crosshairs of the GOP in the debt ceiling fight.
Will Joe Biden's student debt forgiveness program ever forgive the debt of qualified applicants?
|
2023-04-28T09:41:59
|
2023-07-01T09:26:10
|
2023-07-02T10:52:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A798ewKPGH83kygqAWva
|
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before June 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-28T09:12:47
|
2024-06-01T02:29:02
|
2024-06-01T02:29:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-anktIcbmgXDPjdLLZdtv
|
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before Mar 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-28T09:10:35
|
2024-03-01T05:16:30
|
2024-03-01T05:16:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GtGR7aFz6Wm6doG9RXNZ
|
Will Destiny or Dr. K make any direct reference to mrgirl in the May 3rd conversation?
|
https://www.destiny.gg/schedule
|
2023-04-28T07:46:34
|
2023-05-03T12:59:58
|
2023-05-03T12:59:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wp9ufhvzPvA0jVHkNXYI
|
Will Sergio Perez win the 2023 Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-27T20:13:00
|
2023-05-07T14:12:21
|
2023-05-07T14:12:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GzrKrnBQh60E7ZYFCf8G
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-27T20:12:41
|
2023-05-07T14:10:53
|
2023-05-07T14:10:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kZsy83uLLsPlRxl2J3MV
|
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-27T19:44:56
|
2024-11-07T13:40:14
|
2024-11-07T13:40:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bSYxkFxp8LP2WeZejmxm
|
Will Ron Desantis win the 2024 US presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-27T19:43:54
|
2024-11-05T13:24:25
|
2024-11-05T13:24:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P9kIYDOqTmiFTJXmwzUr
|
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-27T19:43:33
|
2024-11-07T13:40:21
|
2024-11-07T13:40:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JAi0Fme4Evjo8542ArS2
|
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-27T19:43:07
|
2024-07-22T10:40:49
|
2024-07-22T10:40:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QjP2jypCHkU0vGNj5Pc7
|
Will the Republican party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
|
Resolve Yes if the Republican party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
Resolve No otherwise
|
2023-04-27T19:41:46
|
2024-11-07T13:39:12
|
2024-11-07T13:39:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-phDkwcP05fXxHHr8EbiD
|
Will the democratic party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
|
Resolve Yes if the democratic party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
Resolve No otherwise
|
2023-04-27T19:41:19
|
2024-11-07T13:39:55
|
2024-11-07T13:39:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J10Se569rF2DU1xUiyCS
|
Will season 2 of Arcane come out in 2024?
|
Resolves as expected. There was recently an announcement that Arcane would not in fact be releasing a second season in 2023 :((( so we'll see if it comes out in 2024. For reference, the first season apparently took 6 years (though they did say season 2 won't be taking quite as long as season 1).
If you don't know what Arcane is, it's a really good animated series and everyone should watch it.
|
2023-04-27T16:32:26
|
2024-12-26T14:32:21
|
2024-12-26T14:32:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TIQB9T0jmYesO3erE5Ju
|
Will the 00 block be mined in the next couple days?
|
According to the closing time of this market, so not exactly two days.
|
2023-04-27T15:40:52
|
2023-04-29T13:59:00
|
2023-04-29T14:09:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1qxV2Mv1PnOgdhhqEhXp
|
Will China convene and mediate peace negotiations between representatives of Ukraine and Russia by the end of 2023?
|
Xi Jinping has apparently attempted to offer a political settlement to the hostilities in Ukraine. This on the heels of secretly brokering normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Clearly Xi is getting ambitious globally, but does he have what it takes to broker a peace deal between Putin and Zelenskyy?
Resolves YES if China convenes representatives of Russia and Ukraine and exclusively mediates peace talks between the parties. Does not matter where it happens or the outcome, just that all three parties are acknowledged participants in active negotiations and no other parties like NATO, the US or EU also participate as mediators.
|
2023-04-27T15:01:15
|
2023-12-31T20:11:06
|
2023-12-31T20:11:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z7EUEONSJNDRxuyMRtT9
|
Will Lauren Boebert be reelected in CO-3 in 2024?
|
Will Lauren Boebert be reelected to the U.S. House of Representatives in Colorado's third district? It doesn't count if she decides to switch to another district and gets elected there.
|
2023-04-27T13:26:51
|
2024-11-14T02:07:04
|
2024-11-14T02:07:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YnZ4kNQJmGhDHMz2UqHb
|
Will Newcastle United defeat Chelsea on May 28th 2023?
|
Yes = Newcastle United Win
No = Draw, or Chelsea Win
|
2023-04-27T10:16:54
|
2023-05-28T10:45:00
|
2023-05-28T11:11:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l9p08BMBXaBAYJ1vAoTN
|
Will Newcastle United defeat Leeds United on May 13th 2023?
|
Yes = Newcastle United Win
No = Draw, or Leeds United Win
|
2023-04-27T10:12:25
|
2023-05-13T06:28:17
|
2023-05-13T06:28:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IXiDz8sxsjFs7lnp6zjM
|
Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 3 of the West Semifinals against the #4 Phoenix Suns in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544336
Additional Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-04-27T06:56:04
|
2023-05-05T22:00:00
|
2023-05-06T05:25:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eI1SPZQEmvxcDztCgcwG
|
Will a member of U.S. Congress be censured or expelled prior to the 2024 U.S. general election?
|
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-105sdoc11/pdf/CDOC-105sdoc11.pdf
Posted for reference to Article I, Section 5. While expulsion is unlikely, there is a slight possibility of censure for behavior disapproved by a simple majority of chamber members. The most recent member to be censured is Paul Gosar in 2021.
Resolves YES for any report of a member of either the U.S. House of Representatives or U.S. Senate being censured or expelled by a simple majority or two thirds majority respectively prior to the end of Election Day 2024.
|
2023-04-27T06:42:41
|
2023-11-08T08:05:35
|
2023-11-08T08:05:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GNuOxI9n4NGnBKDV1R5v
|
Will Steamboat Willie enter the public domain on January 1st 2024?
|
Resolves yes if enters public domain; resolves to no if copyright is extended
|
2023-04-27T06:40:04
|
2024-01-01T05:28:52
|
2024-01-01T05:28:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V4jistHgB4SRNJoy51sL
|
World Chess Championship 2023: Will game 14 be a DRAW?
|
Yes = Draw
No = Either side wins
|
2023-04-27T05:13:11
|
2023-04-29T08:37:53
|
2023-04-29T08:37:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rVJwXi6rWefjm6lGBpr7
|
Will Apple announce Copilot-like functionality for Xcode at WWDC 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-27T05:01:35
|
2023-06-09T13:20:50
|
2023-06-09T13:20:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jhVeX8D5fYIHQrU3QAZG
|
Will Tucker Carlson sign a deal with Twitter?
|
Shoulds be a deal that is different to the deal that we all have as users. I am unsure about a deal that's common to large accounts (if such exist) but any custom deal would resolve yes.
|
2023-04-27T01:05:47
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-15T07:02:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rMDPnZrtWoj6P6qNBbRv
|
Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican nominee?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-26T17:49:45
|
2024-05-04T06:04:02
|
2024-05-04T06:04:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rTEcvfZfmUNcwZknujNr
|
Will Destiny talk to Jidion again by the end of May?
|
[markets]
|
2023-04-26T17:02:01
|
2023-05-09T22:05:21
|
2023-05-09T22:05:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1QQtqzUue6lguhGZ9dwc
|
Will Destiny talk to Annalicia again by the end of May?
|
[markets]
|
2023-04-26T16:03:10
|
2023-06-01T04:02:05
|
2023-06-01T04:02:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M9dOMlFQSh3TdorcMUA1
|
Sneako asked Destiny to join him in his upcoming South America trip. Will Destiny accept and travel with Sneako?
|
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/S_Pd6h3Ie2Y?t=1744)
|
2023-04-26T15:57:52
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T20:43:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bCd4uff1TsQRstplkHGM
|
Will Destiny burn bridges with Sneako again by the end of 2023?
|
(https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-destiny-burn-bridges-with-myro)
|
2023-04-26T15:41:42
|
2023-07-23T14:51:42
|
2023-07-23T14:51:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s6bH50y7mHdsKZ1oY3WT
|
Will Destiny talk to Sneako again by the end of May?
|
(https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-destiny-join-sneakos-south-ame)
|
2023-04-26T15:31:14
|
2023-05-04T11:52:00
|
2023-05-04T11:52:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3EtIOaGiyCRq27MGq3S0
|
Will Nate Silver leave 538 by the end of 2023?
|
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168
Resolves to whatever multiple credible news sources + his Wikipedia page say on Jan 1 2024. If there are no credible news sources, this market resolves to whether or not Nate's email is listed on this page.
May 2, 11:29am: Will Nate Silver leave 529 by the end of 2023? → Will Nate Silver leave 538 by the end of 2023?
|
2023-04-26T14:06:56
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:09:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M2udN48WMNyGQZjx5hyP
|
Will Disney's stock be worth more (than $97.65) one year after filing suit against DeSantis?
|
Will use todays $DIS opening of 97.65.
Apr 27, 1:22pm: Will Disney's stock be worth more one year after filing suit against DeSantis? → Will Disney's stock be worth more (than $97.65) one year after filing suit against DeSantis?
|
2023-04-26T13:54:40
|
2024-04-27T20:59:00
|
2024-04-28T07:27:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s4lnpiL2SYOb9VD1Ocq6
|
Will a Destiny video reach 500k views before june 1st
|
Resolves yes if a video posted on the main channel after this market is created reaches 500k views before 1/6/2023
|
2023-04-26T13:44:17
|
2023-05-20T12:18:50
|
2023-05-20T12:19:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xWRPQ9Hu8qnJAv0kGZB6
|
Will we manage to delegate EA Forum Weekly Summaries to an LLM by EOY?
|
Rethink Priorities staff produce a regular segment on Weekly Forum Summaries on the Effective Altruism Forum that summarizes some of the week's posts. We have previously tried to do these summaries with GPT3 and GPT4 but have had issues with the quality of the summary and the length of the article being summarized.
By the end of the year, will we (Rethink Priorities) successfully manage to delegate this to an LLM? Specifically, will, in my (Peter Wildeford) subjective judgement will I deem that an LLM can take over >80% of the work needed to make the EA Forum summaries by EOY 2023?
I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.
|
2023-04-26T11:25:39
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T03:56:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-usgGPFgmigSZBtDpgOms
|
Will Disney win their lawsuit against Ron DeSantis?
|
[tweet]
|
2023-04-26T10:56:11
|
2024-06-19T20:41:45
|
2024-06-19T20:41:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rh5t10snAxjmlSJXgU8U
|
Will Redwood Research still exist in 1 year?
|
Resolves to NO if an organization called Redwood Research still exists, but has 1 or fewer employees working full time on alignment research.
|
2023-04-26T10:15:59
|
2024-04-26T16:59:00
|
2024-04-27T18:24:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-70ym8fVYfdtPFjZJaY7D
|
Will an image generator be capable of asking clarifying questions about an ambiguous prompt by the end of 2024?
|
In my opinion, one of the major weaknesses of current LLM-based technology is that it doesn't ask the user clarifying questions when a prompt is ambiguous or otherwise confusing to the model.
Interactive text generators like ChatGPT probably could do it more if they were trained to do so, but I'm more concerned with models that perform a specific task like "generate an image" or "generate some music."
For example, if I ask a current image generator like DALL-E 2 or Stable Diffusion to generate an image of "A woman rescuing a drowning man with a robot arm" right now, it will give me four images with random permutations of women, men, and robots in the vicinity of some water. Compositionality problems aside, this prompt is actually linguistically ambiguous, and a competent artist would want to ask "Is it the woman or the man who has the robot arm?" before producing any artwork.
So, this market will resolve YES if, before the close date, there is a publicly-available image generator that asks the user for additional clarification in some way before generating the final images when prompted with "A woman rescuing a drowning man with a robot arm" (or a similarly ambiguous prompt, if that specific prompt doesn't work for some reason). Resolves NO otherwise. I will not be betting in this market.
Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The image generator must consistently ask for clarification when presented with an ambiguous prompt, rather than only under specific instructions or rarely.
The clarification behavior should be the normal and expected behavior most of the time, not something that occurs intermittently (e.g., 1 out of 7 times).
|
2023-04-26T10:12:56
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-07T09:16:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l8PdukmgVXy4t0j8mb9F
|
Will someone besides FiveThirtyEight publish Nate Silver’s 2024 general election model?
|
Seems like he's most likely leaving FiveThirtyEight when his contract is up, in the midst of massive layoffs...and that he still owns the model?
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-04-26T07:12:42
|
2024-06-26T16:01:36
|
2024-06-26T16:01:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r57AB2RZxzhGFtAQoSvR
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky return from his sabbatical before the end of June 2023?
|
Eliezer has mentioned in interviews that he's taking a sabbatical. This market is about whether Eliezer will be back soon ie. before the end of June.
|
2023-04-25T18:32:29
|
2023-07-26T09:28:52
|
2023-07-26T09:29:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7JzCxIYo9ckkVq4KZF2j
|
Will GPT-4's parameter count be public by the end of June?
|
This market resolves YES if credible reporting on GPT-4's parameter count is available by 11:59 PM EST on June 30, 2023. Credible reporting must be corroborated by OpenAI, and a reported point parameter count must have at least 1 significant digit.
A numerical range (low, high) where mid = (low + high)/2 is sufficient iff low >= 0.75 * mid and high <= 1.25 * mid. For example, (100M, 200M) does not qualify because a range with a midpoint of 150M must be at least as tight as (112.5M, 187.5M).
This market will resolve YES immediately after the above conditions are met. If they are not met at any point by the expiration date, this market resolves NO.
6/20 notice in response to leaks of GPT-4 being a 220B x 8 MoE model or 1.2T:
I previously purchased 1 M$ of YES and just sold for 26 M$. This is NOT an indication of whether I think these leaks are legitimate; I sold to eliminate any conflict of interest in case resolution becomes hotly contested.
I will not make any more trades in this market.
|
2023-04-25T15:34:59
|
2023-06-30T23:59:00
|
2023-07-01T01:27:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GcQiJfnwvuoqYehx7nBi
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience and have it air before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-25T15:31:32
|
2024-01-01T21:59:00
|
2024-01-02T17:59:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C3ar7VwYBZeLvvNRfd5X
|
Will Tesla greenlight fully autonomous driving by end of 2023? (any location)
|
For positive resolution, Tesla would need to permit car owners to utilize the Full Self-Driving functionality without any user monitoring required. A positive resolution is compatible with limited access by location - i.e., a restriction limiting unmonitored self-driving to San Francisco or another city could still cause this market to resolve positively.
This ability should be open-access with no waitlist - available to any Tesla owners with Full Self-Driving enabled.
|
2023-04-25T12:18:49
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T09:17:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-grSY9MQGJwbcmUXe8S0q
|
Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by end of 2023?
|
Resolves positively if, by 2023-12-31, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods. The important criteria is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car.
Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively.
|
2023-04-25T12:13:30
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T09:17:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jKXfDxd4C1hVaHaDLtvw
|
Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by September 30th?
|
Since late-2021, Cruise and Waymo have been testing driverless taxi rides with early-access users in San Francisco. Both services have been expanding their reach to include broader swaths of the city, with Waymo now covering ~80% of SF and Cruise (reportedly) covering the entire city. It's evident how many self-driving vehicles are operating by navigating around San Francisco - on a recent ~25-minute drive, I counted 14 self-driving vehicles.
Thus far, these services have only been available to the lucky few who received early access and got off the waitlist (I started using Waymo early access in February 2023). When will these services be available to the general public?
This market resolves positively if, by 2023-09-30, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Other resolution criteria:
Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods
The crucial criterion is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car
Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively
Public access with a timing restriction (e.g., the public can only access vehicles after 10pm) is acceptable
The public access must last for at least a week without being shut down to resolve positively
Access must be available via the app stores of at least 2 mobile phone operating systems (e.g., Android and iOS)
|
2023-04-25T12:13:06
|
2023-09-30T23:59:00
|
2023-10-01T15:46:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3Ca5l7zY5jBK7M5lQY1g
|
Will Biden live until Election Day in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-25T10:46:59
|
2024-11-05T05:56:16
|
2024-11-05T05:56:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B1VvlyOIQn83dUyfk1f8
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Joe Biden share a stage in a televised debate for the 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-25T09:04:10
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-11T05:09:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gl5spqwANgT3H4GfhPOi
|
Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on June 14, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-25T08:02:06
|
2023-06-14T20:59:00
|
2023-06-15T05:13:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BT7yqREVZHuO93zPravk
|
Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16517/us-debt-default-before-july-1-2023/
The U.S. debt ceiling is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.
In the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on several occasions, and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.
The US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. This Reason article describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 "mini-default", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:
The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.
Regarding the 1979 "mini-default" CRS says:
Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.
According to Reuters, the deadline for a debt ceiling increase could come earlier than expected:
The U.S. government's deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could be sooner than expected, raising the prospect of a short-term debt limit extension, analysts said on Tuesday.
Goldman Sachs analysts said weak tax collections so far in April indicate a higher probability that the so-called "X-date," when the government is no longer able to pay all its bills, would be reached in the first half of June. Analysts at Citi said they expected a short-term deal in June or July.
The Treasury Department has warned that the federal government could reach the moment when it will no longer be able to meet its financial obligations as early as June 5, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast that moment would come sometime between July and September.
|
2023-04-24T18:16:10
|
2023-07-13T17:36:26
|
2023-07-13T17:36:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5tEqGwltubTKwi1RWGvr
|
Will Tucker Carlson run for elected office before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-24T18:08:03
|
2025-02-18T16:32:38
|
2025-02-18T16:32:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v6zvpeVdKx1jDpjobCY7
|
Will Tucker Carlson get a show on ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, Newsmax, NewsNation, OANN or TheBlaze in 2023?
|
Tucker Carlson's final program on Fox News was April 21st, 2023.
If he is hired by any one of ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, Newsmax, NewsNation, OANN or TheBlaze in 2023 to host some sort of regular program, this market will resolve to YES.
|
2023-04-24T09:52:58
|
2024-01-01T05:27:41
|
2024-01-01T05:27:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CtZiVXB3sxgeQikrsHq7
|
Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican party's vice presidential nominee in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-24T09:25:02
|
2024-07-16T00:51:08
|
2024-07-16T00:51:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PLovjkJPl11imux1sLEJ
|
Will Tucker Carlson announce candidacy for president in the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-24T09:01:12
|
2024-11-04T15:59:00
|
2024-11-14T16:02:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k4hz8D7NElcyzgN2wn7H
|
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of November 2023?
|
Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised
This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.
If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.
If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of November, this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-04-24T08:54:01
|
2023-06-03T13:20:00
|
2023-06-03T13:20:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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