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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-0bqpJ0HTg15PsB4dX2I2
|
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of October 2023?
|
Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised
This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.
If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.
If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of October, this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-04-24T08:53:28
|
2023-06-03T13:20:52
|
2023-06-03T13:20:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XiHhlCfjZZoczUwXmfMS
|
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of September 2023?
|
Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised
This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.
If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.
If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of September, this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-04-24T08:52:48
|
2023-06-03T13:21:24
|
2023-06-03T13:21:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oXoSAEJeTXRMz1rQ5jyG
|
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of August 2023?
|
Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised
This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.
If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.
If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of August, this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-04-24T08:52:26
|
2023-06-03T13:21:52
|
2023-06-03T13:21:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y9mpPth1JfCkwGsF2vqv
|
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of July 2023?
|
Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised
This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.
If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.
If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of July, this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-04-24T08:51:40
|
2023-06-03T13:22:31
|
2023-06-03T13:22:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3szs86zpyB4QQY4zzP2S
|
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy)
|
Update - this market has been added to the Manifold showcase and the Manifold team have added a M$10,000 liquidity subsidy to the market.
This means that there's a lot of money to be made if the current odds are wrong, or to whoever is the first to realise that events are changing the odds. It also means that you can make much bigger bets without moving the odds by as much!
Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised
This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
@/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-bb50b544604c
@/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.
If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.
If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of June, this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-04-24T08:51:03
|
2023-06-03T13:23:37
|
2023-06-03T13:23:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-69D7abJaaEexCxQ2BOZB
|
Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of May 2023?
|
Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised
This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b
@/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-bb50b544604c
@/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc
(Manifold have added a M$10,000 liquidity subsidy to the June market as part of adding it to the Manifold showcase so there's a big profit to be made there if you think that the odds are wrong!)
If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.
If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.
If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of May, this market resolves to YES.
Update 31st May - just to clarify a couple of points which have been discussed in the comments:
"By the end of May" means before the end of 31st May, Washington DC time. So if the bill currently being discussed is passed by the House and Senate and is signed into law by the President by 23:59 on 31st May, this would resolve to YES.
Under the current plan, the debt ceiling will be suspended until January 2025 (rather than being raised to a specific figure) as part of Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. This would count as being "raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity)" as per the wording of this market.
I've also put up a few markets on what happens next with the Fiscal Responsibility Act:
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c92aa58d0186
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-94efb856d92a
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-19de3ce890f7
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c597c4aa7e4b
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-d229c4a1edca
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-2d2c27b34f65
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-6160f1d68aba
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-ee0f36977d4f
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-764c416156e8
|
2023-04-24T08:49:36
|
2023-06-01T00:56:09
|
2023-06-01T00:56:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v2TNcS4R1SYls1wsJkn1
|
Will Destiny burn bridges with Fresh & Fit aka Myron by the end of 2023?
|
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/0RnDxwdLuhM)(https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-destiny-burn-bridges-with-snea)
|
2023-04-24T01:06:21
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-03T09:18:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oSbm2DTa8QdVRXk2ZMYy
|
Will an AI song have 1B plays? (by 2025)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-24T00:30:39
|
2024-12-31T19:59:00
|
2025-01-03T09:30:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3yI9EgZR17xxPFqTWfOL
|
Will Joe Biden announce his reelection bid on Tuesday Apr 25?
|
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/20/politics/biden-video-announcement-plans/index.html
Resolves YES if Joe Biden formally announces he's running for President in 2024 on Tuesday Apr 25 (Eastern time). Otherwise NO.
|
2023-04-23T16:29:25
|
2023-04-25T04:56:14
|
2023-04-25T04:56:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TcW5I0C7w7sVuqBFEKqA
|
Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic Ticket?
|
Resolves Identically to this predictit market: Kamala Harris 2024 | Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic ticket? (predictit.org)
|
2023-04-23T15:40:51
|
2024-08-25T15:13:23
|
2024-08-25T15:13:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AAPSJgsErjbtmcS2ellF
|
Will Destiny talk to DJ Akademiks in 2023?
|
[markets]
|
2023-04-23T10:09:27
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:12:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JrG9IGqp7is6hEyzO3uk
|
Will Starship land by April ‘24?
|
And survive.
|
2023-04-23T01:34:23
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:12:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CIBngdV2roaFSTVDA7Vo
|
Will Destiny talk to Contrapoints in 2023?
|
[markets]
|
2023-04-22T23:00:46
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:12:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n8R9VCcEXnRjNAecfPUs
|
Will ContraPoints release another video in 2023?
|
The first video she released this year is The Witch Trials of J.K. Rowling.
https://www.youtube.com/c/ContraPoints/videos
|
2023-04-22T21:47:23
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:21:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FoHT2G52lUj5NUqK2gON
|
Will there be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine during 2023?
|
For a minimum of 24 hours.
|
2023-04-22T18:14:30
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:31:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cEnKqdIBmasnbS0Wozzh
|
Will there be a second Fyre Festival?
|
Billy got out of prison recently and said he has already got the plans ready for Fyre 2. Will he pull it off by the end of 2024?
|
2023-04-22T18:01:40
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T20:42:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KCRbKdj6pDtf1edNe7ac
|
Will bitcoin be at least $28000 on 5/12
|
At 11:59pm as measured by coinmarketcap average price.
|
2023-04-22T15:44:05
|
2023-05-12T23:59:00
|
2023-05-13T14:02:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UR9dBlYOSZM5PMuohe2q
|
Will Russia control Avdiivka, a city close to being captured just like Bakhmut by August 31st?
|
Resolves YES if Russia takes control of Avdiivka at any point in time by August 31st, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this location is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated up to and including the deadline date.
The specific location used for this market can be found on the ISW interactive map by simply typing Avdiivka in the search bar.
The ISW map is updated everyday at 3:00 PM ET.
This location is pictured below with the map as of April 22nd.
[image][markets]
|
2023-04-22T15:07:02
|
2023-08-31T15:00:00
|
2023-09-06T19:40:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KDxPHLIOIyZviLraEcw9
|
Will Fiji make it to the knockout stage of the tournament at the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
|
2023-04-22T12:18:40
|
2023-10-08T13:53:49
|
2023-10-08T13:53:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YtokVy9brmni0vcvMH7s
|
Will Japan make it to the knockout stage of the tournament at the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
|
2023-04-22T12:12:48
|
2023-10-08T08:34:05
|
2023-10-08T08:34:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K2JogFImDKtoRaHzxh5Q
|
Will Borussia Dortmund Win the Bundesliga?
|
2022/23 season. Sort of telling that no one has made this market up until now.
|
2023-04-22T11:07:32
|
2023-05-27T08:38:34
|
2023-05-27T08:38:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hp4sjnvVHOcjtLYM5A6x
|
Will anyone lose at least M$2,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
|
I shamelessly take inspiration from this market by @IsaacKing
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-56baa429a7a9
This is not the exact opposite, as both can resolve YES together (even with a single market) and also not identical.
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "lose" by M$2,000,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.
500,000 version: https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-anyone-lose-at-least-m500000-o
1,000,000 version: https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-anyone-lose-at-least-m1000000
|
2023-04-22T09:22:29
|
2023-04-30T00:34:06
|
2023-04-30T00:34:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nC2WwkXV3mTt8otC5HCi
|
Will anyone lose at least M$500,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
|
I shamelessly take inspiration from this market by @IsaacKing
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-56baa429a7a9
This is not the exact opposite, as both can resolve YES together (even with a single market) and also not identical.
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "lose" by M$500,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.
1,000,000 version : https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-anyone-lose-at-least-m1000000
|
2023-04-22T09:20:22
|
2023-04-30T00:38:07
|
2023-04-30T00:38:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T3enEArKKgNv0Ut8MbVm
|
Will anyone lose at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
|
I shamelessly take inspiration from this market by @IsaacKing
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-56baa429a7a9
This is not the exact opposite, as both can resolve YES together (even with a single market) and also not identical.
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "lose" by M$1,000,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.
|
2023-04-22T09:18:03
|
2023-04-30T00:37:49
|
2023-04-30T00:37:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fMNhZkneKf6dWlEbONa6
|
Will an official trailer be released for GTA 6 in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-22T07:53:15
|
2023-12-07T06:08:14
|
2023-12-07T06:08:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CtXGJjpdV1ko1H6Rfu2v
|
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
|
Resolve YES if Joe Biden is officially nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. This includes both winning the Democratic primaries and being formally chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention.
Resolve NO if Joe Biden does not become the Democratic Party's presidential candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. This includes scenarios such as Biden deciding not to run for re-election, losing the Democratic primaries to another candidate, or being nominated but then withdrawing from the race.
|
2023-04-22T06:32:36
|
2024-07-21T15:24:44
|
2024-07-21T15:24:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q19PVjUqZijac0oDxpan
|
Will the first Starship–Super Heavy launch to reach SECO be travelling at orbital speeds?
|
A followup to this market.
The recent Starship–Super Heavy full stack flight test was intended to be slightly suborbital.
There are two ways a trajectory can be suborbital: either the vehicle can be going too slow, or it can be pointed in the wrong direction to complete a full orbit.
Which will apply to Starship, on the next flight test of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack that makes it as far as 2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO)?
This market will resolve YES if, at any altitude, Starship has a total energy (kinetic plus potential) greater than that of a 160km altitude circular orbit (close to the lowest possible circular orbit).
That is, this market resolves YES if, for any altitude h, Starship's speed v satisfies:
[image]where G is the gravitational constant, M is the mass of the Earth, and R is the radius of the Earth.
For example:
h = 150 km, v > 7824 m/s
h = 175 km, v > 7794 m/s
h = 200 km, v > 7765 m/s
h = 225 km, v > 7735 m/s
Note that the speed indicator on SpaceX's live stream is in a frame of reference rotating with the Earth, but the above speeds refer to the speed of Starship in the equivalent non-rotating frame.
Thus depending on how close Starship is to the above thresholds, resolution may require estimating Starship's vertical velocity from the altitude indicator, and perhaps its heading from maps of the planned trajectory as well, in order to add Earth's rotation speed only to the eastward component of Starship's velocity in the rotating frame, to convert to the nonrotating frame. If, due to uncertainty, this calculation is too close to give a clear result, and barring clarifying official statements or other data that could help resolve it, the market will resolve N/A.
This question is equivalent to asking whether Starship will at any point be on a trajectory with a semimajor axis greater than 160km (plus Earth's radius). So official numbers on the apogee and perigee would also be sufficient to resolve it (unofficial estimates would have to come from the velocity data anyway).
Market stays open until a Starship–Super Heavy launch reaches SECO, or resolves N/A if the development of Starship/Super Heavy as we know it ceases.
|
2023-04-22T05:41:19
|
2024-03-14T06:55:06
|
2024-03-14T06:55:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dn7rmj2w6n2g55N09B69
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in December 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa (you are here)
|
2023-04-22T01:42:33
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:04:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VNtFo8wagn8zWPO8AnDP
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in November 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98 (you are here)
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
|
2023-04-22T01:41:52
|
2023-11-18T04:27:01
|
2023-11-18T04:27:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XMW0oKl5yPOkllCjXbFU
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in October 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e (you are here)
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
|
2023-04-22T01:40:25
|
2023-10-31T21:59:00
|
2023-10-31T21:59:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OW87rfaMlMJGfQkZCluJ
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in September 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d (you are here)
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
|
2023-04-22T01:38:47
|
2023-09-30T21:59:00
|
2023-09-30T22:06:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PpfD2hkOxqO2fXwzm48D
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in August 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a (you are here)
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
|
2023-04-22T01:35:03
|
2023-08-31T21:59:00
|
2023-08-31T22:06:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Exr841WaoRDi13pEP1qQ
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in July 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c (you are here)
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
|
2023-04-22T01:33:30
|
2023-07-31T21:59:00
|
2023-07-31T22:08:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Vi74BQUgfEfeo8K6JSao
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in June 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5 (you are here)
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
|
2023-04-22T01:32:16
|
2023-06-30T21:59:00
|
2023-06-30T23:32:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SXGe7qqIGLFbLUYXKfOU
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in May 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db (you are here)
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
|
2023-04-22T01:30:59
|
2023-05-31T21:59:00
|
2023-05-31T22:15:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nTpLzg7yGsPA3YUaO7Tn
|
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win another classical time-control round of the Word Chess Championship 2023?
|
Resolves YES iff Nepomniachtchi scores a full point (a win) in any of rounds 10, 11, 12, 13 or 14.
Tiebreaker matches are disregarded.
|
2023-04-22T01:02:18
|
2023-04-29T08:44:38
|
2023-04-29T08:44:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hvMtUWKbIauWXduYCanl
|
Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of July 2023?
|
Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-aea2cdea34a4)
|
2023-04-22T00:27:10
|
2023-07-31T23:52:57
|
2023-07-31T23:52:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AEg9EPiDc0l7SlB1E1T5
|
Will Carmack head Elon’s new AI company?
|
John Carmack is working on AI now. Elon Musk says he's starting an AI company. Recently Carmack attended the Starship launch:
[image]Will Carmack have a technical leadership position at Elon's AI company? Also resolves YES if he's a co-founder.
|
2023-04-22T00:01:09
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00
|
2024-01-01T08:40:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-517r0Nz3SomFwthTXdWw
|
Will a Musk company release an LLM chatbot in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-21T18:08:59
|
2023-11-08T23:32:37
|
2023-11-08T23:32:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OIybDyPz4NggLcm9zSYc
|
Will it be possible to have any ebook turned into a human-like audiobook by 2024?
|
Criteria = an app, website or a program that allows any ebook (format can be restricted) to be added and turned into a highly-realistic human voice audiobook (obviously subjective but basically something you can't tell apart 90% of the time).
|
2023-04-21T18:05:39
|
2023-10-21T06:13:12
|
2023-10-21T06:13:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-unaFroMeEPI6depjfnHK
|
Will Kamala Harris be the next person to be president?
|
As soon as someone who is not Joe Biden is inaugurated as president of the United States, resolves YES if it is Kamala Harris, and NO otherwise, including non-scheduled and extraordinary inaugurations.
If this does not happen by January 23, 2029, resolves N/A.
"Acting president" does not count for the purposes of this market.
Apr 21, 5:55pm: Will Kamala Harris be the next distinct person to be president? → Will Kamala Harris be the next person to be president?
|
2023-04-21T17:36:19
|
2025-01-22T16:55:27
|
2025-01-22T16:55:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0KXZ0n2UBqrfkNHdXt5x
|
Will the government of any country be dissolved or overthrown before June 1?
|
The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before June 1. Examples of such changes may include a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion that results in the overthrow or dissolution of the government.
The question will also be considered resolved positively if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before June 1.
The question will be considered resolved negatively if there is no significant and involuntary change in the government of any country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances before June 1. If there are minor changes, such as a reshuffle of cabinet members or a change in prime minister or president that does not result in a significant change in government policy or structure, the question will still be considered resolved negatively.
|
2023-04-21T14:51:53
|
2023-05-17T06:06:19
|
2023-05-17T06:06:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y3FGB5RkeDI3ZRV3us5L
|
Will Starship launch at least 5 times in 2024?
|
Upward movement from its engines thrust on a launch day counts as launch. The launch doesn't have to be successful. Only full-stack launches count, if it's only the ship or only the booster it doesn't count.
May 2, 11:43am: Will Starship launch 5 times in 2024? → Will Starship launch at least 5 times in 2024?
|
2023-04-21T09:57:11
|
2024-12-31T06:03:09
|
2024-12-31T06:03:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AjuR0qYGTkeEFRUzNIp6
|
Will Germany introduce an equity reserve for pensions before 2026?
|
Germany's finance minister, Christian Lindner, proposed an Aktienrente (equity pension) but had to tone it down to a Aktienrücklage (equity reserve). https://www.socialeurope.eu/pension-reform-in-germany-a-market-solution
Closes at the end of 2025 (which is after the current election period).
Resolves YES, if Lindner's proposal is implemented. Minor changes are acceptable since no concrete law was proposed yet anyways. Changes must be active before 2026.
Resolves NO, if Germany's pension system is unchanged. Also NO, if a very different proposal than the one from Christian Lindner is introduced. Also NO, if changes become active only on 1. January 2026 or later even if the law is decided already.
Resolve NO immediately, if Christian Lindner definitely abandons his proposal.
Update 2024-22-12 (PST): * Market will resolve NO immediately if the FDP (Free Democratic Party) fails to get any seats in parliament (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2023-04-21T09:15:22
|
2025-03-09T10:55:59
|
2025-03-09T10:55:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sWmwROIDBpRI1u4D7FoE
|
Will any of the charges against Alec Baldwin be refiled?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-21T07:53:53
|
2024-01-19T11:35:47
|
2024-01-19T11:35:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EDRyNjSQboR0KVcJh0i6
|
Will the US Supreme Court take up a A.I. copyright case before 2025?
|
The main area I'm thinking of is the copyright status of something produced using training data that is currently copywritten.
|
2023-04-21T03:44:37
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-10T09:47:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TbfGa870Vp9IwcICcIYD
|
Will Chris Christie appear in a televised Republican Primary debate by the end of August?
|
The GOP have announced that first debate for the Republican nomination for President will take place in August and be shown on Fox News:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/republican-primary-debate-milwaukee.html
Will Chris Christie appear in this or any other official (GOP sanctioned) televised primary debate by the end of August?
|
2023-04-21T03:35:35
|
2023-08-23T23:05:22
|
2023-08-23T23:05:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SKWLIGNCJAOhE7XouuUq
|
Will Bitcoin be at least $28000 on Friday 5/5
|
At 11:59pm PST, as measured by coinmarkecap average price.
|
2023-04-21T02:19:36
|
2023-05-05T23:59:00
|
2023-05-06T11:25:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FtENl4YTP2IZVsxCTBVT
|
Will there be candidates with "ChatGPT" in their names in the 2024 Brazilian municipal elections?
|
This market seeks to predict whether there will be candidates with the term "ChatGPT" in their names in the 2024 Brazilian municipal elections. The market will resolve to YES if there is at least one candidate with "ChatGPT" in their name, and NO if there are no such candidates.
To resolve this market, the data will be sourced from the official list of candidates published by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
|
2023-04-20T18:57:57
|
2024-10-12T20:53:33
|
2024-10-12T20:53:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3yTE1Ai5jR4iIoikaqzE
|
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
|
This question resolves to YES if during one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
|
2023-04-20T13:58:03
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-13T19:26:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f7ILZzgjkTpYuHwdhHY2
|
Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.
Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
|
2023-04-20T13:29:25
|
2023-08-28T12:47:19
|
2023-08-28T12:47:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bTyTIiSeYRsfvtaRcc42
|
Will Manchester City eliminate Real Madrid at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League?
|
Resolves YES if Manchester City qualifies for the final of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League.
Notice that the semi-finals are played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied, then 30 minutes of extra time is played, and if the score is still tied at the end of extra time, the winner are decided by a penalty shoot-out.
|
2023-04-20T11:04:57
|
2023-05-17T13:59:00
|
2023-05-17T14:01:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dWusnHatHKeWmbt4CJix
|
Will Starship reach space? (#2)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-20T11:04:00
|
2023-11-18T06:28:08
|
2023-11-18T06:28:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nDiJYPSMZAs8Ct6hlewl
|
Will the Electoral College map of the 2024 presidential election be the same as 2020?
|
Resolves to YES if every US state, Washington D.C., and every Congressional district that awards an electoral vote all vote for the same party in the 2024 US presidential election as they did in the 2020 presidential election. The candidates do not need to be the same. Faithless electors don't matter. In the event of disputes about the election results I will follow reliable sources.
|
2023-04-20T10:48:32
|
2024-11-08T11:22:36
|
2024-11-08T11:22:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fY9d3GmvIXXK6Mw8ysIN
|
Will the next full stack launch of Starship (after 4/20) occur before the end of 2023?
|
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-02862167f734
@/Mqrius/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-690f4cc6f4cb
|
2023-04-20T09:30:04
|
2023-11-18T07:22:15
|
2023-11-18T07:22:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0cfgczc7PWTxxQMkVMHd
|
Will another Starship successfully launch before 2024?
|
Success is defined as a second starship launching and fully clearing the launch tower this year. And by fully clearing the tower I mean that the bottom of the rocket reaches a height that is above the tallest point of the launch tower.
|
2023-04-20T09:15:54
|
2023-11-18T05:09:32
|
2023-11-18T05:09:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JeGobWfNtjJ7zY7Wt98D
|
Will Ron DeSantis win at least fifteen states in the Republican primaries?
|
Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least fifteen states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
Other markets with a similar format: https://manifold.markets/group/can-candidate-win-states
|
2023-04-20T09:05:09
|
2024-04-17T14:53:12
|
2024-04-17T14:53:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5NnZnkzI8QKXNi9EzzJA
|
Will a large GPT-4 equivalent competitor model be revealed by the end of 2023?
|
For this I mean:
Model released by not OpenAI
Model has an API useable by many people (large private beta is ok) or the weights are available to a large group of people (private/non-commercial is ok). Large number of people = my judgement based on twitter/etc vibe or if public.
Model is multimodal (image and text)
At least some variants have context window >30k tokens
Broad performance equivalence or superiority to existing GPT-4 metrics, especially in complex reasoning tasks.
|
2023-04-20T07:37:31
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:56:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M0L5DbiXfvyobCtzZ3Ko
|
On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) with nominal stage separation, will booster reach intended site?
|
Ie conditional on nominal stage separation, will the booster successfully perform the flyback maneuver and reach whatever area it was intended to either land or splash down in, (irrespective of whether the actual final landing/splashing is nominal)
|
2023-04-20T07:32:10
|
2023-11-26T17:57:28
|
2024-02-26T18:16:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sg4FKVco9ytsufNcNJKQ
|
Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of November?
|
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-922dcdbaf6b7 (New Market)
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-02862167f734 <-- You are here
@/Mqrius/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-690f4cc6f4cb
|
2023-04-20T07:20:40
|
2023-11-18T19:43:35
|
2023-11-18T19:43:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dqOnP95AlTt6JJPOPho8
|
Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of August?
|
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-922dcdbaf6b7 (New Market)
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1 <-- you are here
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-02862167f734
@/Mqrius/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-690f4cc6f4cb
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-f662a71691ea
|
2023-04-20T07:13:26
|
2023-08-31T20:59:00
|
2023-09-03T11:17:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ROJvPW4jGwfZtW2ftmAy
|
Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of June?
|
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of <-- you are here
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-922dcdbaf6b7 (New Market)
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-02862167f734
@/Mqrius/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-690f4cc6f4cb
|
2023-04-20T07:12:10
|
2023-06-30T20:59:00
|
2023-07-02T06:10:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dIdTHeCEqqLuxqRI3qkD
|
Will Starship (Starship + Booster) launch again before June?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-20T06:43:04
|
2023-05-31T16:59:00
|
2023-06-12T21:15:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Wh52Gt8AmXiKZUszm4zJ
|
Will Daniel Ricciardo have a Formula 1 (F1) race seat in 2024?
|
Daniel Ricciardo is an ex-F1 driver who most recently raced for McLaren in 2022. He is currently a third driver for Red Bull.
This market resolves YES if Ricciardo and any Formula 1 team both announce Ricciardo will race for this team in the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship, before the first practice session for the first Grand Prix that year.
Third/reserve driver positions do not count. Substituting for another driver as part of third/reserve driver responsibilities does not count, unless the team announces this substitution is permanent.
|
2023-04-20T05:35:23
|
2023-09-28T08:03:37
|
2023-09-28T08:03:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-im8QsH1Xx4f8BZ4Duluv
|
Will Kevin McCarthy endorse Trump?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-20T05:12:38
|
2023-12-09T16:37:16
|
2023-12-09T16:37:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I2ru2Y0TiQNwGl6dCbpO
|
Will Mitt Romney endorse Trump?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-20T05:09:44
|
2024-11-08T20:59:00
|
2024-11-12T03:47:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r6JbouhlqlqAJ8nU8wGa
|
Will Ted Cruz endorse Trump?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-20T05:05:18
|
2024-01-17T11:22:27
|
2024-01-17T11:22:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-13B7esAxSKCzC5mHxLO1
|
Will Ariane 6 successfully deliver a payload to orbit on its first flight?
|
https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/Ariane/ESA_selects_payloads_for_Ariane_6_first_flight
|
2023-04-20T05:04:43
|
2024-07-09T16:02:45
|
2024-07-09T16:02:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g8ZO0IBFGsEeFs2awQvT
|
Will Susan Collins endorse Trump?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-20T05:03:57
|
2024-11-08T20:59:00
|
2024-11-12T10:53:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uuMfM7IJgWhu96D637bX
|
Will Destiny be on stream with Lav again by the end of May?
|
Talking to Lav is not necessary as long as they are in the same stream. For example, if Destiny jumps on a stream where Lav is already present and she immediately leaves after seeing him, that would count even if they didn't speak to each other.
[markets]
|
2023-04-19T22:47:10
|
2023-06-01T04:06:15
|
2023-06-01T04:06:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tV7xNy4DqHQ7OVL6fKhQ
|
UCL Semi-finals: Will Manchester City eliminate Real Madrid?
|
For the whole tie over 2 legs.
|
2023-04-19T17:44:58
|
2023-05-17T13:59:27
|
2023-05-17T13:59:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KZmaL0BbklbCXYKL7OO6
|
Will the supreme court reverse the lower court ruling that invalidates FDA approval for Mifeprestone?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-19T13:06:56
|
2024-06-13T15:42:49
|
2024-06-13T15:42:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2V4mFj9ngyjvgQvoKTI3
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
|
including tests
|
2023-04-19T10:43:17
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:59:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nXoR0sc3rGJyqD2CdrMC
|
Will there be another widely reported sentient AI by the end of CY2023?
|
Last year, a former Google employee claimed AI had achieved sentience.
Link: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/google-engineer-claims-ai-chatbot-is-sentient-why-that-matters/
Resolved when we receive another report of supposed "sentient" AI, or SkyNet fulfills the prophecy of the Connors.
Edited per comments 4/24: threshold for proving false sentience removed. New requirement is only for a widespread report of sentient AI in reputable news media sources.
Apr 24, 11:27pm: Will there be another falsely reported sentient AI by the end of CY2023? → Will there be another widely reported sentient AI by the end of CY2023?
|
2023-04-19T10:14:09
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T05:20:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IjATKeMdlWo1ehI8O958
|
Will Tim Scott suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?
|
In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 22nd of January, 2024. If Tim Scott suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO. If he doesn't upgrade his exploratory committee to a full campaign launch before that date, this market will also resolve to YES.
|
2023-04-19T08:03:12
|
2023-11-13T00:47:02
|
2023-11-13T00:47:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MzngoNSBFjYSx7BCJZ7F
|
Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15628/apple-glasses/
See a compilation of rumors, news, and patents on such a device in Tom's Guide..
|
2023-04-19T07:58:04
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00
|
2025-01-01T04:17:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w4HAJLwfqEhjZzKtKVo0
|
Will someone besides Pogačar or Vingegaard win the 2023 Tour de France?
|
https://www.letour.fr/en/landing-page
|
2023-04-19T07:51:12
|
2023-07-23T10:56:30
|
2023-07-23T10:56:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QKRjcbFo0fTye8a066Qx
|
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2023 Tour de France?
|
https://www.letour.fr/en/landing-page
|
2023-04-19T07:50:55
|
2023-07-23T10:56:50
|
2023-07-23T10:56:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pFebfLXww9LTvYG6ZpUv
|
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2023 Tour de France?
|
https://www.letour.fr/en/landing-page
|
2023-04-19T07:50:42
|
2023-07-23T10:41:43
|
2023-07-23T10:41:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WuOXiqvGxxtMVoG4UGeG
|
Will Ron DeSantis announce that he is running for president before June 1, 2023?
|
Currently Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, is expected to run for president in 2024. However he has yet to announce an official campaign. Will he do so before June?
Resolves based on multiple news articles being published with titles like "Ron DeSantis Announces Run for President". Just a filing alone is not sufficient (someone other than Mike Pence filed for him to run back in December).
|
2023-04-19T06:46:36
|
2023-05-24T11:44:37
|
2023-05-24T11:44:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q4nHVH2XdDSww5N1zk3I
|
Will Dame Lillard be with the Blazers on opening day 2023
|
Trade winds seem to be brewing. Market settles when traded or on opening day of 2023/24 season.
|
2023-04-19T00:44:19
|
2023-09-27T11:50:26
|
2023-09-27T11:50:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hUhZZWcUIH8U5BNRl3yi
|
Will Samsung actually drop Google to adopt Bing on its devices?
|
Will Korean giant Samsung effectively decide to replace Google Search with Microsoft Bing on all of its new devices?
Context: https://www.reuters.com/technology/alphabet-falls-report-samsung-considering-bing-default-search-engine-2023-04-17/
and https://gizmodo.com/google-stock-drop-samsung-bing-search-engine-galaxy-1850345119
Market closes at the end of 2023 or earlier in case Samsung confirm the decision officially.
|
2023-04-18T22:47:07
|
2023-12-31T07:59:00
|
2023-12-31T08:08:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C36tpkqxU19A5MkGrEsE
|
Will Congressional stock trades outperform the S&P 500 by more than 10 percentage points in 2023?
|
Since the STOCK Act of 2012 made it a legal requirement for Congress to disclose financial transactions, a clear pattern has emerged: they always beat the market. In 2022, $SPY fell 18.2%, but the weighted index of Congressional trades fell less than 1%. Will resolve at the end of 2023 using data from the US Clerk's Office and NYSE, more intuitive visuals can be found here and here.
|
2023-04-18T22:06:17
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-11T11:52:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0AjENFmipORVldlRopUD
|
Will Tears of the Kingdom receive a MetaCritic score of 95 or higher?
|
Resolves yes if score is >= 95
Resolves no if yes fails
https://www.metacritic.com/game/switch/the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-kingdom/critic-reviews?ref=hp
|
2023-04-18T21:36:11
|
2023-05-19T08:25:21
|
2023-05-19T08:25:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jaJraDwL6uZJZRwWgMqj
|
Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16168/dianne-feinstein-resignation/
Born in 1933, Dianne Feinstein has been serving as a US Senator since 1992.
Despite announcing her intention not to seek re-election in 2024, recent health concerns and increasing public pressure have fueled speculation about her potential resignation. At the age of 89, Feinstein has experienced extended medical absences and reportedly exhibited signs of senility, which has raised concerns about her ability to fulfill her duties in the Senate.
As many votes in the current Senate rely on a single Senator's decision, her absence has had significant implications on proceedings, such as the confirmations of federal judges.
In the event of her resignation, the Governor of California would appoint a temporary replacement until the 2024 election determines a full-term successor.
|
2023-04-18T20:25:57
|
2023-09-29T17:14:19
|
2023-09-29T17:14:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lv0E6pEhwtRCEaJBr9wv
|
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first five Starship flights?
|
A catch here will be defined as the booster sitting on the chopsticks after the landing.
|
2023-04-18T17:11:23
|
2024-10-13T06:24:47
|
2024-10-13T06:24:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2lv6ITe6Fz2ECS1kYMJt
|
Will the film 'Suzume', directed by Makoto Shinkai, be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suzume_(film)
This market will resolve YES if 'Suzume' is nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film when the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards are announced.
This market will resolve NO if it is not nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film at the 96th Academy Awards.
|
2023-04-18T14:34:41
|
2024-01-23T08:24:10
|
2024-01-23T08:24:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rooKNb5CsqWgmpA9SSD2
|
Will MrGirl release another update to the article before June 1, 2023?
|
MrGirl released his first update to "The Destiny Report" on April 17. Will there be another version released before June?
This market will resolve YES on June 1 if:
MrGirl publishes an update to the article as a new entry in his Substack
MrGirl publishes the article on another platform and it is clearly an update to the report
MrGirl publishes the article on another platform, with the same content, but in a different format (ex. a video essay version)
MrGirl adds a changelog to one of the two existing Substack articles, that adds or removes substantive details or content (ex. A new story of Destiny's abuse, the removal of one of the stories already present, or the addition of sources)
This market will resolve NO on June 1 if:
MrGirl makes minor updates (spelling, grammar, correcting an error like the name of a person being incorrect) to one of the Substack links
MrGirl publishes the article on another platform, but the content and form are unchanged
MrGirl does not publish a new version of the article or update the existing Substack links as detailed above
|
2023-04-18T11:21:12
|
2023-05-31T21:01:00
|
2023-06-17T12:22:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qqhId6hHJDgbtJa7Wr4D
|
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
|
Will the majority of candidates elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections be Republicans or caucus with them? This isn't affected by any special elections that happen in 2024. It is also only about the candidates that are actually elected - if some of them die before inauguration or are otherwise prevented from taking office, this market will still resolve based on the election results.
It will resolve NO if either Democrats take back the House, or there are enough truly independent or third party candidates (i.e., those that will causus with neither party) elected for neither major party to have control.
|
2023-04-18T08:24:44
|
2024-11-14T11:52:11
|
2024-11-14T11:52:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2vUc6PgjxGKEs5SThWOD
|
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2024?
|
[tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets]
|
2023-04-18T08:19:04
|
2023-12-08T15:41:22
|
2023-12-08T15:43:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g5N5uTyQCtsBjfr3CDIq
|
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q3 2024?
|
[tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets]
|
2023-04-18T08:09:22
|
2023-12-08T15:41:34
|
2023-12-08T15:43:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RiT8fjZVy2tzVnxapurj
|
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q2 2024?
|
[tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets]
|
2023-04-18T08:06:09
|
2023-12-08T15:41:30
|
2023-12-08T15:43:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C0LNSSKjlBh1flZI416G
|
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q1 2024?
|
[tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets]
|
2023-04-18T07:39:52
|
2023-12-08T15:41:27
|
2023-12-08T15:43:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QV5lM3fjqcIErFc8DSLq
|
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2023?
|
[tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets]
|
2023-04-18T07:14:08
|
2023-12-08T15:31:54
|
2023-12-08T15:33:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o1I7XfoRZtZAut7wXF0n
|
Will Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis appear together in a televised Republican Primary debate by the end of August?
|
The GOP have announced that first debate for the Republican nomination for President will take place in August and be shown on Fox News:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/republican-primary-debate-milwaukee.html
The two leading candidates for the nomination are Trump and DeSantis. Will they both appear on stage together in this debate (or any other official, televised, GOP sanctioned debate by August)?
If no televised debate goes ahead by the end of August, this market will resolve to NO. If the two candidates appear in separate debates or one-on-one interviews that don't involve sharing a stage, that will not be sufficient to meet the requirements of this market.
Let me know if there are any other edge cases you'd like me to clarify!
|
2023-04-18T06:26:56
|
2023-08-31T14:43:58
|
2023-08-31T14:43:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SkbtnrXbk4dksNJ4JTIv
|
Will Artemis II launch before July 2025?
|
Release of the launch clamps after ignition counts as a launch.
@/NcyRocks/will-artemis-ii-launch-by-the-end-o
@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-july
@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2027
See also:
@/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
@/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882
SEO: Artemis 2
|
2023-04-18T04:07:08
|
2024-08-22T14:34:45
|
2024-08-22T14:34:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xliqOCbrg30XD3DcTeU6
|
Will there be a woman on the GOP ticket in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if a woman is the GOP nominee for president or vice president in 2024.
|
2023-04-18T02:53:46
|
2024-07-15T12:31:21
|
2024-07-15T12:31:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4Dfwbi8kWsCsS0HfCKwm
|
Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's second orbital test flight?
|
SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the next OFT.
If it resolves YES, this takes into account the possibilities of inflight failures.
If it resolves NO, this removes the possibility of SpaceX announcing 'no attempt', then changing their plan.
Resolution criteria:
The catch attempt can be made either for the Booster or Starship itself (or both).
'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the launch site. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid.
It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory. I am open to discussion on this point, but I think other criteria would be more subjective.
|
2023-04-18T01:09:29
|
2023-11-18T07:06:30
|
2023-11-18T07:06:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S5NuKKpcBoGrkSHmh7QO
|
Will Cillian Murphy say the exact phrase, "I am become death, the destroyer of worlds," in the movie "Oppenheimer"
|
I will use the USA theatrical cut. "Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds," also resolves as yes.
|
2023-04-17T18:41:45
|
2023-07-21T19:54:43
|
2023-07-21T19:54:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-POs0e1hPw0Ze4a3F9MZc
|
Will Destiny successfully get Lav to retract some of her accusations or stop talking about him via legal methods?
|
[tweet]If the lawsuit isn't aimed at Lav, then this market will resolve NO.
[markets]
|
2023-04-17T13:14:32
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-12T05:05:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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