id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-0bqpJ0HTg15PsB4dX2I2 | Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of October 2023? | Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the... | 2023-04-24T08:53:28 | 2023-06-03T13:20:52 | 2023-06-03T13:20:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XiHhlCfjZZoczUwXmfMS | Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of September 2023? | Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the... | 2023-04-24T08:52:48 | 2023-06-03T13:21:24 | 2023-06-03T13:21:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oXoSAEJeTXRMz1rQ5jyG | Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of August 2023? | Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the... | 2023-04-24T08:52:26 | 2023-06-03T13:21:52 | 2023-06-03T13:21:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y9mpPth1JfCkwGsF2vqv | Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of July 2023? | Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the... | 2023-04-24T08:51:40 | 2023-06-03T13:22:31 | 2023-06-03T13:22:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3szs86zpyB4QQY4zzP2S | Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy) | Update - this market has been added to the Manifold showcase and the Manifold team have added a M$10,000 liquidity subsidy to the market.
This means that there's a lot of money to be made if the current odds are wrong, or to whoever is the first to realise that events are changing the odds. It also means that you can ... | 2023-04-24T08:51:03 | 2023-06-03T13:23:37 | 2023-06-03T13:23:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-69D7abJaaEexCxQ2BOZB | Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of May 2023? | Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.
At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the... | 2023-04-24T08:49:36 | 2023-06-01T00:56:09 | 2023-06-01T00:56:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v2TNcS4R1SYls1wsJkn1 | Will Destiny burn bridges with Fresh & Fit aka Myron by the end of 2023? | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/0RnDxwdLuhM)(https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-destiny-burn-bridges-with-snea) | 2023-04-24T01:06:21 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-03T09:18:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oSbm2DTa8QdVRXk2ZMYy | Will an AI song have 1B plays? (by 2025) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-24T00:30:39 | 2024-12-31T19:59:00 | 2025-01-03T09:30:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3yI9EgZR17xxPFqTWfOL | Will Joe Biden announce his reelection bid on Tuesday Apr 25? | https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/20/politics/biden-video-announcement-plans/index.html
Resolves YES if Joe Biden formally announces he's running for President in 2024 on Tuesday Apr 25 (Eastern time). Otherwise NO. | 2023-04-23T16:29:25 | 2023-04-25T04:56:14 | 2023-04-25T04:56:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TcW5I0C7w7sVuqBFEKqA | Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic Ticket? | Resolves Identically to this predictit market: Kamala Harris 2024 | Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic ticket? (predictit.org) | 2023-04-23T15:40:51 | 2024-08-25T15:13:23 | 2024-08-25T15:13:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AAPSJgsErjbtmcS2ellF | Will Destiny talk to DJ Akademiks in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-23T10:09:27 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:12:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JrG9IGqp7is6hEyzO3uk | Will Starship land by April ‘24? | And survive. | 2023-04-23T01:34:23 | 2024-04-30T21:59:00 | 2024-04-30T22:12:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CIBngdV2roaFSTVDA7Vo | Will Destiny talk to Contrapoints in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-22T23:00:46 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:12:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n8R9VCcEXnRjNAecfPUs | Will ContraPoints release another video in 2023? | The first video she released this year is The Witch Trials of J.K. Rowling.
https://www.youtube.com/c/ContraPoints/videos | 2023-04-22T21:47:23 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:21:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FoHT2G52lUj5NUqK2gON | Will there be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine during 2023? | For a minimum of 24 hours. | 2023-04-22T18:14:30 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:31:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cEnKqdIBmasnbS0Wozzh | Will there be a second Fyre Festival? | Billy got out of prison recently and said he has already got the plans ready for Fyre 2. Will he pull it off by the end of 2024? | 2023-04-22T18:01:40 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:42:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KCRbKdj6pDtf1edNe7ac | Will bitcoin be at least $28000 on 5/12 | At 11:59pm as measured by coinmarketcap average price. | 2023-04-22T15:44:05 | 2023-05-12T23:59:00 | 2023-05-13T14:02:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UR9dBlYOSZM5PMuohe2q | Will Russia control Avdiivka, a city close to being captured just like Bakhmut by August 31st? | Resolves YES if Russia takes control of Avdiivka at any point in time by August 31st, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this location is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolv... | 2023-04-22T15:07:02 | 2023-08-31T15:00:00 | 2023-09-06T19:40:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KDxPHLIOIyZviLraEcw9 | Will Fiji make it to the knockout stage of the tournament at the 2023 Rugby World Cup? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup | 2023-04-22T12:18:40 | 2023-10-08T13:53:49 | 2023-10-08T13:53:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YtokVy9brmni0vcvMH7s | Will Japan make it to the knockout stage of the tournament at the 2023 Rugby World Cup? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup | 2023-04-22T12:12:48 | 2023-10-08T08:34:05 | 2023-10-08T08:34:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K2JogFImDKtoRaHzxh5Q | Will Borussia Dortmund Win the Bundesliga? | 2022/23 season. Sort of telling that no one has made this market up until now. | 2023-04-22T11:07:32 | 2023-05-27T08:38:34 | 2023-05-27T08:38:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hp4sjnvVHOcjtLYM5A6x | Will anyone lose at least M$2,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | I shamelessly take inspiration from this market by @IsaacKing
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-56baa429a7a9
This is not the exact opposite, as both can resolve YES together (even with a single market) and also not identical.
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market,... | 2023-04-22T09:22:29 | 2023-04-30T00:34:06 | 2023-04-30T00:34:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nC2WwkXV3mTt8otC5HCi | Will anyone lose at least M$500,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | I shamelessly take inspiration from this market by @IsaacKing
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-56baa429a7a9
This is not the exact opposite, as both can resolve YES together (even with a single market) and also not identical.
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market,... | 2023-04-22T09:20:22 | 2023-04-30T00:38:07 | 2023-04-30T00:38:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T3enEArKKgNv0Ut8MbVm | Will anyone lose at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | I shamelessly take inspiration from this market by @IsaacKing
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-56baa429a7a9
This is not the exact opposite, as both can resolve YES together (even with a single market) and also not identical.
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market,... | 2023-04-22T09:18:03 | 2023-04-30T00:37:49 | 2023-04-30T00:37:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fMNhZkneKf6dWlEbONa6 | Will an official trailer be released for GTA 6 in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-22T07:53:15 | 2023-12-07T06:08:14 | 2023-12-07T06:08:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CtXGJjpdV1ko1H6Rfu2v | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | Resolve YES if Joe Biden is officially nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election. This includes both winning the Democratic primaries and being formally chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention.
Resolve NO if Joe Biden does not becom... | 2023-04-22T06:32:36 | 2024-07-21T15:24:44 | 2024-07-21T15:24:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-q19PVjUqZijac0oDxpan | Will the first Starship–Super Heavy launch to reach SECO be travelling at orbital speeds? | A followup to this market.
The recent Starship–Super Heavy full stack flight test was intended to be slightly suborbital.
There are two ways a trajectory can be suborbital: either the vehicle can be going too slow, or it can be pointed in the wrong direction to complete a full orbit.
Which will apply to Starship, on... | 2023-04-22T05:41:19 | 2024-03-14T06:55:06 | 2024-03-14T06:55:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dn7rmj2w6n2g55N09B69 | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in December 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-04-22T01:42:33 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:04:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VNtFo8wagn8zWPO8AnDP | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in November 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-04-22T01:41:52 | 2023-11-18T04:27:01 | 2023-11-18T04:27:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XMW0oKl5yPOkllCjXbFU | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in October 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-04-22T01:40:25 | 2023-10-31T21:59:00 | 2023-10-31T21:59:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OW87rfaMlMJGfQkZCluJ | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in September 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-04-22T01:38:47 | 2023-09-30T21:59:00 | 2023-09-30T22:06:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PpfD2hkOxqO2fXwzm48D | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in August 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-04-22T01:35:03 | 2023-08-31T21:59:00 | 2023-08-31T22:06:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Exr841WaoRDi13pEP1qQ | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in July 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-04-22T01:33:30 | 2023-07-31T21:59:00 | 2023-07-31T22:08:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Vi74BQUgfEfeo8K6JSao | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in June 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-04-22T01:32:16 | 2023-06-30T21:59:00 | 2023-06-30T23:32:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SXGe7qqIGLFbLUYXKfOU | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in May 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-04-22T01:30:59 | 2023-05-31T21:59:00 | 2023-05-31T22:15:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nTpLzg7yGsPA3YUaO7Tn | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win another classical time-control round of the Word Chess Championship 2023? | Resolves YES iff Nepomniachtchi scores a full point (a win) in any of rounds 10, 11, 12, 13 or 14.
Tiebreaker matches are disregarded. | 2023-04-22T01:02:18 | 2023-04-29T08:44:38 | 2023-04-29T08:44:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hvMtUWKbIauWXduYCanl | Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of July 2023? | Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happene... | 2023-04-22T00:27:10 | 2023-07-31T23:52:57 | 2023-07-31T23:52:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AEg9EPiDc0l7SlB1E1T5 | Will Carmack head Elon’s new AI company? | John Carmack is working on AI now. Elon Musk says he's starting an AI company. Recently Carmack attended the Starship launch:
[image]Will Carmack have a technical leadership position at Elon's AI company? Also resolves YES if he's a co-founder. | 2023-04-22T00:01:09 | 2023-12-31T22:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:40:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-517r0Nz3SomFwthTXdWw | Will a Musk company release an LLM chatbot in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-21T18:08:59 | 2023-11-08T23:32:37 | 2023-11-08T23:32:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OIybDyPz4NggLcm9zSYc | Will it be possible to have any ebook turned into a human-like audiobook by 2024? | Criteria = an app, website or a program that allows any ebook (format can be restricted) to be added and turned into a highly-realistic human voice audiobook (obviously subjective but basically something you can't tell apart 90% of the time). | 2023-04-21T18:05:39 | 2023-10-21T06:13:12 | 2023-10-21T06:13:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-unaFroMeEPI6depjfnHK | Will Kamala Harris be the next person to be president? | As soon as someone who is not Joe Biden is inaugurated as president of the United States, resolves YES if it is Kamala Harris, and NO otherwise, including non-scheduled and extraordinary inaugurations.
If this does not happen by January 23, 2029, resolves N/A.
"Acting president" does not count for the purposes of thi... | 2023-04-21T17:36:19 | 2025-01-22T16:55:27 | 2025-01-22T16:55:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0KXZ0n2UBqrfkNHdXt5x | Will the government of any country be dissolved or overthrown before June 1? | The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government st... | 2023-04-21T14:51:53 | 2023-05-17T06:06:19 | 2023-05-17T06:06:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y3FGB5RkeDI3ZRV3us5L | Will Starship launch at least 5 times in 2024? | Upward movement from its engines thrust on a launch day counts as launch. The launch doesn't have to be successful. Only full-stack launches count, if it's only the ship or only the booster it doesn't count.
May 2, 11:43am: Will Starship launch 5 times in 2024? → Will Starship launch at least 5 times in 2024? | 2023-04-21T09:57:11 | 2024-12-31T06:03:09 | 2024-12-31T06:03:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AjuR0qYGTkeEFRUzNIp6 | Will Germany introduce an equity reserve for pensions before 2026? | Germany's finance minister, Christian Lindner, proposed an Aktienrente (equity pension) but had to tone it down to a Aktienrücklage (equity reserve). https://www.socialeurope.eu/pension-reform-in-germany-a-market-solution
Closes at the end of 2025 (which is after the current election period).
Resolves YES, if Lindne... | 2023-04-21T09:15:22 | 2025-03-09T10:55:59 | 2025-03-09T10:55:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sWmwROIDBpRI1u4D7FoE | Will any of the charges against Alec Baldwin be refiled? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-21T07:53:53 | 2024-01-19T11:35:47 | 2024-01-19T11:35:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EDRyNjSQboR0KVcJh0i6 | Will the US Supreme Court take up a A.I. copyright case before 2025? | The main area I'm thinking of is the copyright status of something produced using training data that is currently copywritten. | 2023-04-21T03:44:37 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-10T09:47:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TbfGa870Vp9IwcICcIYD | Will Chris Christie appear in a televised Republican Primary debate by the end of August? | The GOP have announced that first debate for the Republican nomination for President will take place in August and be shown on Fox News:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/republican-primary-debate-milwaukee.html
Will Chris Christie appear in this or any other official (GOP sanctioned) televised primary d... | 2023-04-21T03:35:35 | 2023-08-23T23:05:22 | 2023-08-23T23:05:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SKWLIGNCJAOhE7XouuUq | Will Bitcoin be at least $28000 on Friday 5/5 | At 11:59pm PST, as measured by coinmarkecap average price. | 2023-04-21T02:19:36 | 2023-05-05T23:59:00 | 2023-05-06T11:25:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FtENl4YTP2IZVsxCTBVT | Will there be candidates with "ChatGPT" in their names in the 2024 Brazilian municipal elections? | This market seeks to predict whether there will be candidates with the term "ChatGPT" in their names in the 2024 Brazilian municipal elections. The market will resolve to YES if there is at least one candidate with "ChatGPT" in their name, and NO if there are no such candidates.
To resolve this market, the data will b... | 2023-04-20T18:57:57 | 2024-10-12T20:53:33 | 2024-10-12T20:53:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3yTE1Ai5jR4iIoikaqzE | Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? | This question resolves to YES if during one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to automation, or existential risk from AI. This ques... | 2023-04-20T13:58:03 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-13T19:26:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f7ILZzgjkTpYuHwdhHY2 | Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.
Ple... | 2023-04-20T13:29:25 | 2023-08-28T12:47:19 | 2023-08-28T12:47:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bTyTIiSeYRsfvtaRcc42 | Will Manchester City eliminate Real Madrid at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League? | Resolves YES if Manchester City qualifies for the final of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League.
Notice that the semi-finals are played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied, then 30 ... | 2023-04-20T11:04:57 | 2023-05-17T13:59:00 | 2023-05-17T14:01:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dWusnHatHKeWmbt4CJix | Will Starship reach space? (#2) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-20T11:04:00 | 2023-11-18T06:28:08 | 2023-11-18T06:28:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nDiJYPSMZAs8Ct6hlewl | Will the Electoral College map of the 2024 presidential election be the same as 2020? | Resolves to YES if every US state, Washington D.C., and every Congressional district that awards an electoral vote all vote for the same party in the 2024 US presidential election as they did in the 2020 presidential election. The candidates do not need to be the same. Faithless electors don't matter. In the event of d... | 2023-04-20T10:48:32 | 2024-11-08T11:22:36 | 2024-11-08T11:22:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fY9d3GmvIXXK6Mw8ysIN | Will the next full stack launch of Starship (after 4/20) occur before the end of 2023? | @/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-02862167f734
@/Mqrius/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-690f4cc6f4cb | 2023-04-20T09:30:04 | 2023-11-18T07:22:15 | 2023-11-18T07:22:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0cfgczc7PWTxxQMkVMHd | Will another Starship successfully launch before 2024? | Success is defined as a second starship launching and fully clearing the launch tower this year. And by fully clearing the tower I mean that the bottom of the rocket reaches a height that is above the tallest point of the launch tower. | 2023-04-20T09:15:54 | 2023-11-18T05:09:32 | 2023-11-18T05:09:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JeGobWfNtjJ7zY7Wt98D | Will Ron DeSantis win at least fifteen states in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least fifteen states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RN... | 2023-04-20T09:05:09 | 2024-04-17T14:53:12 | 2024-04-17T14:53:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5NnZnkzI8QKXNi9EzzJA | Will a large GPT-4 equivalent competitor model be revealed by the end of 2023? | For this I mean:
Model released by not OpenAI
Model has an API useable by many people (large private beta is ok) or the weights are available to a large group of people (private/non-commercial is ok). Large number of people = my judgement based on twitter/etc vibe or if public.
Model is multimodal (image and text)
... | 2023-04-20T07:37:31 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:56:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M0L5DbiXfvyobCtzZ3Ko | On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) with nominal stage separation, will booster reach intended site? | Ie conditional on nominal stage separation, will the booster successfully perform the flyback maneuver and reach whatever area it was intended to either land or splash down in, (irrespective of whether the actual final landing/splashing is nominal) | 2023-04-20T07:32:10 | 2023-11-26T17:57:28 | 2024-02-26T18:16:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sg4FKVco9ytsufNcNJKQ | Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of November? | @/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-922dcdbaf6b7 (New Market)
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-02862167f734 <-- Yo... | 2023-04-20T07:20:40 | 2023-11-18T19:43:35 | 2023-11-18T19:43:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dqOnP95AlTt6JJPOPho8 | Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of August? | @/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-922dcdbaf6b7 (New Market)
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1 <-- you are here
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-... | 2023-04-20T07:13:26 | 2023-08-31T20:59:00 | 2023-09-03T11:17:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ROJvPW4jGwfZtW2ftmAy | Will the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20), occur before the end of June? | @/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-5175ef91c1fa
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of <-- you are here
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-922dcdbaf6b7 (New Market)
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-a318c482b8b1
@/YaakovSaxon/will-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-028... | 2023-04-20T07:12:10 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-07-02T06:10:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dIdTHeCEqqLuxqRI3qkD | Will Starship (Starship + Booster) launch again before June? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-20T06:43:04 | 2023-05-31T16:59:00 | 2023-06-12T21:15:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wh52Gt8AmXiKZUszm4zJ | Will Daniel Ricciardo have a Formula 1 (F1) race seat in 2024? | Daniel Ricciardo is an ex-F1 driver who most recently raced for McLaren in 2022. He is currently a third driver for Red Bull.
This market resolves YES if Ricciardo and any Formula 1 team both announce Ricciardo will race for this team in the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship, before the first practice session for the ... | 2023-04-20T05:35:23 | 2023-09-28T08:03:37 | 2023-09-28T08:03:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-im8QsH1Xx4f8BZ4Duluv | Will Kevin McCarthy endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-20T05:12:38 | 2023-12-09T16:37:16 | 2023-12-09T16:37:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-I2ru2Y0TiQNwGl6dCbpO | Will Mitt Romney endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-20T05:09:44 | 2024-11-08T20:59:00 | 2024-11-12T03:47:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r6JbouhlqlqAJ8nU8wGa | Will Ted Cruz endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-20T05:05:18 | 2024-01-17T11:22:27 | 2024-01-17T11:22:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-13B7esAxSKCzC5mHxLO1 | Will Ariane 6 successfully deliver a payload to orbit on its first flight? | https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/Ariane/ESA_selects_payloads_for_Ariane_6_first_flight | 2023-04-20T05:04:43 | 2024-07-09T16:02:45 | 2024-07-09T16:02:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g8ZO0IBFGsEeFs2awQvT | Will Susan Collins endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-20T05:03:57 | 2024-11-08T20:59:00 | 2024-11-12T10:53:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uuMfM7IJgWhu96D637bX | Will Destiny be on stream with Lav again by the end of May? | Talking to Lav is not necessary as long as they are in the same stream. For example, if Destiny jumps on a stream where Lav is already present and she immediately leaves after seeing him, that would count even if they didn't speak to each other.
[markets] | 2023-04-19T22:47:10 | 2023-06-01T04:06:15 | 2023-06-01T04:06:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tV7xNy4DqHQ7OVL6fKhQ | UCL Semi-finals: Will Manchester City eliminate Real Madrid? | For the whole tie over 2 legs. | 2023-04-19T17:44:58 | 2023-05-17T13:59:27 | 2023-05-17T13:59:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KZmaL0BbklbCXYKL7OO6 | Will the supreme court reverse the lower court ruling that invalidates FDA approval for Mifeprestone? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-19T13:06:56 | 2024-06-13T15:42:49 | 2024-06-13T15:42:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2V4mFj9ngyjvgQvoKTI3 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023? | including tests | 2023-04-19T10:43:17 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:59:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nXoR0sc3rGJyqD2CdrMC | Will there be another widely reported sentient AI by the end of CY2023? | Last year, a former Google employee claimed AI had achieved sentience.
Link: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/google-engineer-claims-ai-chatbot-is-sentient-why-that-matters/
Resolved when we receive another report of supposed "sentient" AI, or SkyNet fulfills the prophecy of the Connors.
Edited per commen... | 2023-04-19T10:14:09 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:20:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IjATKeMdlWo1ehI8O958 | Will Tim Scott suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast? | In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is sc... | 2023-04-19T08:03:12 | 2023-11-13T00:47:02 | 2023-11-13T00:47:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MzngoNSBFjYSx7BCJZ7F | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15628/apple-glasses/
See a compilation of rumors, news, and patents on such a device in Tom's Guide.. | 2023-04-19T07:58:04 | 2024-12-31T12:00:00 | 2025-01-01T04:17:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w4HAJLwfqEhjZzKtKVo0 | Will someone besides Pogačar or Vingegaard win the 2023 Tour de France? | https://www.letour.fr/en/landing-page | 2023-04-19T07:51:12 | 2023-07-23T10:56:30 | 2023-07-23T10:56:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QKRjcbFo0fTye8a066Qx | Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2023 Tour de France? | https://www.letour.fr/en/landing-page | 2023-04-19T07:50:55 | 2023-07-23T10:56:50 | 2023-07-23T10:56:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pFebfLXww9LTvYG6ZpUv | Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2023 Tour de France? | https://www.letour.fr/en/landing-page | 2023-04-19T07:50:42 | 2023-07-23T10:41:43 | 2023-07-23T10:41:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WuOXiqvGxxtMVoG4UGeG | Will Ron DeSantis announce that he is running for president before June 1, 2023? | Currently Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, is expected to run for president in 2024. However he has yet to announce an official campaign. Will he do so before June?
Resolves based on multiple news articles being published with titles like "Ron DeSantis Announces Run for President". Just a filing alone is not suffici... | 2023-04-19T06:46:36 | 2023-05-24T11:44:37 | 2023-05-24T11:44:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-q4nHVH2XdDSww5N1zk3I | Will Dame Lillard be with the Blazers on opening day 2023 | Trade winds seem to be brewing. Market settles when traded or on opening day of 2023/24 season. | 2023-04-19T00:44:19 | 2023-09-27T11:50:26 | 2023-09-27T11:50:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hUhZZWcUIH8U5BNRl3yi | Will Samsung actually drop Google to adopt Bing on its devices? | Will Korean giant Samsung effectively decide to replace Google Search with Microsoft Bing on all of its new devices?
Context: https://www.reuters.com/technology/alphabet-falls-report-samsung-considering-bing-default-search-engine-2023-04-17/
and https://gizmodo.com/google-stock-drop-samsung-bing-search-engine-galaxy... | 2023-04-18T22:47:07 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2023-12-31T08:08:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C36tpkqxU19A5MkGrEsE | Will Congressional stock trades outperform the S&P 500 by more than 10 percentage points in 2023? | Since the STOCK Act of 2012 made it a legal requirement for Congress to disclose financial transactions, a clear pattern has emerged: they always beat the market. In 2022, $SPY fell 18.2%, but the weighted index of Congressional trades fell less than 1%. Will resolve at the end of 2023 using data from the US Clerk's Of... | 2023-04-18T22:06:17 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-11T11:52:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0AjENFmipORVldlRopUD | Will Tears of the Kingdom receive a MetaCritic score of 95 or higher? | Resolves yes if score is >= 95
Resolves no if yes fails
https://www.metacritic.com/game/switch/the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-kingdom/critic-reviews?ref=hp | 2023-04-18T21:36:11 | 2023-05-19T08:25:21 | 2023-05-19T08:25:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jaJraDwL6uZJZRwWgMqj | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/16168/dianne-feinstein-resignation/
Born in 1933, Dianne Feinstein has been serving as a US Senator since 1992.
Despite announcing her intention not to seek re-election in 2024, recent health concerns and increasing public pressure have fueled speculation about her potential resig... | 2023-04-18T20:25:57 | 2023-09-29T17:14:19 | 2023-09-29T17:14:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lv0E6pEhwtRCEaJBr9wv | Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first five Starship flights? | A catch here will be defined as the booster sitting on the chopsticks after the landing.
| 2023-04-18T17:11:23 | 2024-10-13T06:24:47 | 2024-10-13T06:24:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2lv6ITe6Fz2ECS1kYMJt | Will the film 'Suzume', directed by Makoto Shinkai, be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suzume_(film)
This market will resolve YES if 'Suzume' is nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film when the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards are announced.
This market will resolve NO if it is not nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film at... | 2023-04-18T14:34:41 | 2024-01-23T08:24:10 | 2024-01-23T08:24:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rooKNb5CsqWgmpA9SSD2 | Will MrGirl release another update to the article before June 1, 2023? | MrGirl released his first update to "The Destiny Report" on April 17. Will there be another version released before June?
This market will resolve YES on June 1 if:
MrGirl publishes an update to the article as a new entry in his Substack
MrGirl publishes the article on another platform and it is clearly an update t... | 2023-04-18T11:21:12 | 2023-05-31T21:01:00 | 2023-06-17T12:22:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qqhId6hHJDgbtJa7Wr4D | Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections? | Will the majority of candidates elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections be Republicans or caucus with them? This isn't affected by any special elections that happen in 2024. It is also only about the candidates that are actually elected - if some of them die before inauguration or ar... | 2023-04-18T08:24:44 | 2024-11-14T11:52:11 | 2024-11-14T11:52:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2vUc6PgjxGKEs5SThWOD | Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2024? | [tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets] | 2023-04-18T08:19:04 | 2023-12-08T15:41:22 | 2023-12-08T15:43:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g5N5uTyQCtsBjfr3CDIq | Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q3 2024? | [tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets] | 2023-04-18T08:09:22 | 2023-12-08T15:41:34 | 2023-12-08T15:43:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RiT8fjZVy2tzVnxapurj | Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q2 2024? | [tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets] | 2023-04-18T08:06:09 | 2023-12-08T15:41:30 | 2023-12-08T15:43:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C0LNSSKjlBh1flZI416G | Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q1 2024? | [tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets] | 2023-04-18T07:39:52 | 2023-12-08T15:41:27 | 2023-12-08T15:43:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QV5lM3fjqcIErFc8DSLq | Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2023? | [tweet]Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
[markets] | 2023-04-18T07:14:08 | 2023-12-08T15:31:54 | 2023-12-08T15:33:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-o1I7XfoRZtZAut7wXF0n | Will Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis appear together in a televised Republican Primary debate by the end of August? | The GOP have announced that first debate for the Republican nomination for President will take place in August and be shown on Fox News:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/republican-primary-debate-milwaukee.html
The two leading candidates for the nomination are Trump and DeSantis. Will they both appear o... | 2023-04-18T06:26:56 | 2023-08-31T14:43:58 | 2023-08-31T14:43:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SkbtnrXbk4dksNJ4JTIv | Will Artemis II launch before July 2025? | Release of the launch clamps after ignition counts as a launch.
@/NcyRocks/will-artemis-ii-launch-by-the-end-o
@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-july
@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2027
See also:
@/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
@/Mqri... | 2023-04-18T04:07:08 | 2024-08-22T14:34:45 | 2024-08-22T14:34:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xliqOCbrg30XD3DcTeU6 | Will there be a woman on the GOP ticket in 2024? | Resolves YES if a woman is the GOP nominee for president or vice president in 2024. | 2023-04-18T02:53:46 | 2024-07-15T12:31:21 | 2024-07-15T12:31:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4Dfwbi8kWsCsS0HfCKwm | Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's second orbital test flight? | SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the next OFT.
I... | 2023-04-18T01:09:29 | 2023-11-18T07:06:30 | 2023-11-18T07:06:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S5NuKKpcBoGrkSHmh7QO | Will Cillian Murphy say the exact phrase, "I am become death, the destroyer of worlds," in the movie "Oppenheimer" | I will use the USA theatrical cut. "Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds," also resolves as yes. | 2023-04-17T18:41:45 | 2023-07-21T19:54:43 | 2023-07-21T19:54:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-POs0e1hPw0Ze4a3F9MZc | Will Destiny successfully get Lav to retract some of her accusations or stop talking about him via legal methods? | [tweet]If the lawsuit isn't aimed at Lav, then this market will resolve NO.
[markets] | 2023-04-17T13:14:32 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-12T05:05:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
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