id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-XMpdbdMctoTz7PckkVfG | Will Destiny send Lav a cease & desist letter? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-04-17T13:05:30 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-12T05:14:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NvkDDzWsOLk3KDCvkt9a | Will Starship launch successfully before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15973/successful-starship-launch-by-april-30-2023/
On April 14th, SpaceX received a launch license for its Starship spacecraft. A launch scheduled for April 17th was scrubbed due to a frozen valve. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted:
Learned a lot today, now offloading propellant, retry... | 2023-04-17T08:03:30 | 2023-04-21T16:32:09 | 2023-04-21T16:32:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2CaowuWau8XJZqbscXK9 | Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st April 2024? | This will resolve to YES if Rishi Sunak is replaced as Prime Minister for any reason before 1st April 2024.
The main reasons why a Prime Minister would be replaced:
If General Election is held and Sunak no longer has the support of the majoirty of the House after the election, he would be expected to resign and the K... | 2023-04-17T07:18:44 | 2024-04-01T08:10:26 | 2024-04-01T08:10:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rxkQdiv5oxBtlfbM3WuU | Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st July 2024? | This will resolve to YES if Rishi Sunak is replaced as Prime Minister for any reason before 1st July 2024.
The main reasons why a Prime Minister would be replaced:
If General Election is held and Sunak no longer has the support of the majoirty of the House after the election, he would be expected to resign and the Ki... | 2023-04-17T07:17:45 | 2024-06-30T15:59:00 | 2024-07-01T07:16:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TaEiunnV2vyH42BWcLDu | Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st October 2024? [10,000 Mana subsidy] | This will resolve to YES if Rishi Sunak is replaced as Prime Minister for any reason before 1st October 2024.
The main reasons why a Prime Minister would be replaced:
If General Election is held and Sunak no longer has the support of the majoirty of the House after the election, he would be expected to resign and the... | 2023-04-17T07:17:11 | 2024-07-05T12:20:05 | 2024-07-05T12:20:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rLHKVVaq5CtcrC8yAytL | Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st January 2025? | This will resolve to YES if Rishi Sunak is replaced as Prime Minister for any reason before 1st January 2025.
The main reasons why a Prime Minister would be replaced:
If General Election is held and Sunak no longer has the support of the majoirty of the House after the election, he would be expected to resign and the... | 2023-04-17T07:16:16 | 2024-07-09T07:16:56 | 2024-07-09T07:16:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7brqZ7W2ZlSkDY37w1OR | In 2023 will a hurricane make landfall in the US causing at least $10 billion in damages? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-17T06:15:59 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:05:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1gK2mokR7zqIc9BStXUp | Will third-party candidates receive 5% or more of the presidential vote in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-17T06:08:49 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:15:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZdMW2MCBR2CR8KbcFf8B | Will Starship attempt to launch today? | resolves YES if countdown reaches T-0, NO otherwise
| 2023-04-17T05:01:25 | 2023-04-17T16:59:00 | 2023-04-20T03:54:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cnSPxFxjcWfoqyZhKN0G | Will a transformer circuit be found for predicting the correct indentation level for a new line in python this year? | In a model with >=30k neurons total.
For any general programming language, but python is in title for ease of understanding question. | 2023-04-17T03:25:04 | 2023-12-31T22:29:00 | 2024-01-01T01:42:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4F5FBcIl1oWDBitQQ5jq | Will Apple sell a VR / MR headset in physical Apple Stores in 2023? | There is some speculation Apple's VR headset will not be available in physical Apple Stores, because it will be marketed as a developer-only product. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqcboxQ4ik4&t=190s. | 2023-04-17T03:05:25 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-06T20:50:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l5NKtf6SIHEtAlgoS9HB | Will GPT 4.5 be announced by October? (2023) | Soon after ChatGPT was released, the immense popularity made them focus on finding optimizations and OpenAI quickly found a "90% savings" which was reflected in the API pricing with "gpt-3.5-turbo".
The rumor mill says "September or October 2023", so I've dated this market in the middle to approximate 50%.
Resolves Y... | 2023-04-16T20:13:46 | 2023-09-30T23:59:00 | 2023-10-07T12:11:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XlA9rTxmes4DGmY48ALE | Will Trump be indicted again? (by 6/1) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-16T19:12:10 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-06-01T16:04:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KvNCRMSJLvwRYT0OmcAk | Will Joe Biden be reelected in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-16T12:27:10 | 2024-07-22T00:23:23 | 2024-07-22T00:23:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY | Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? | Here's an example of something GPT-4 can't do yet:
I have a geometric reasoning problem for you:
Draw a circle
Draw a triangle mostly inside the circle but with a corner poking out
Now draw a teeny-tiny square fully inside the part of the triangle poking out of the circle
Draw a line from the center of that square... | 2023-04-16T11:52:21 | 2025-01-01T17:00:00 | 2025-01-01T18:17:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kTwae49mrJjHdPgBmy2l | Will there be a (real) mugshot of Donald J Trump released in 2023? | Must be from a detainment by law enforcement.
| 2023-04-16T10:58:55 | 2023-08-25T12:22:12 | 2023-08-25T12:22:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WYb64SzMRubdUaAnOaLn | Will Destiny talk to Cenk Uygur or Ana Kasparian in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T07:44:41 | 2023-06-07T00:05:43 | 2023-06-07T00:05:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kuYsaRmWA2GRZmQo7buW | Will Russia control western Bakhmut by June 30? | Resolves YES if Russia takes control of Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, Ukraine, at any point in time by June 30, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this location is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded... | 2023-04-16T07:11:06 | 2023-05-21T12:47:34 | 2023-05-21T12:47:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yj8lhO7CKqO89EsTKpO9 | Will Destiny talk to Jordan Peterson in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T07:03:40 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T20:09:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1jmrztwCscsMa4kAb4OS | Will Destiny talk to Michael Knowles in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T06:59:21 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:13:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uGEctSAtOqY3uTsYpLUR | Will Destiny talk to Matt Walsh in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T06:58:05 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-03T06:31:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L22TRLDI7l8Qm70xUZdY | Will Destiny talk to Keffals in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T06:56:59 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:15:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rW6vjcxhqVvL5ceTCAti | Will Destiny talk to Ben Shapiro in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T06:48:28 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:19:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lE2PO3Dvwqd9S0PZKLM4 | Will Destiny talk to Tim Pool again in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T06:42:42 | 2023-07-12T10:40:40 | 2023-07-12T10:40:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8bc3MPk3CgIdECZm1Rcw | Will Destiny talk to Nick Fuentes again in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T05:21:12 | 2023-07-12T10:38:12 | 2023-07-12T10:38:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IcZZqwDg8Msq7sR10EPY | Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2025? | This can be any type of Starship, tankers, depots, testing vehicles, etc. They don't need to transfer fuel for this market to resolve Yes, but the docking itself has to be successful.
If the docking happens in an unexpected way, like with a long hose or something, that would also count as Yes. Docking a Dragon to a St... | 2023-04-16T04:09:08 | 2024-11-06T10:10:57 | 2024-11-06T10:10:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hi7jEULlMr4jvxAZTc79 | Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2024? | This can be any type of Starship, tankers, depots, testing vehicles, HLS, etc. They don't need to transfer fuel for this market to resolve Yes, but the docking itself has to be successful.
If the docking happens in an unexpected way, like with a long hose or something, that would also count as Yes. Docking a Dragon to... | 2023-04-16T04:09:07 | 2023-12-31T14:03:36 | 2023-12-31T14:03:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R4pJpL4eZr6NF7LGOiC2 | Will Manchester City win the Treble? | FA Cup
Premier League Title
Champions League | 2023-04-16T04:05:07 | 2023-06-10T15:47:20 | 2023-06-10T15:47:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3l0gi1JQdwmGmgHCeRzp | Will Destiny talk to Alex Jones again in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-16T01:24:34 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:32:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ZRMP1dlj8sBdtOQA7Td | Will "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" be the highest grossing movie of 2023? | Will be resolved via https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2023/?sort=domesticGrossToDate&ref_=bo_ydw__resort#table | 2023-04-16T00:45:17 | 2023-09-17T14:59:11 | 2023-09-17T14:59:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VT4XCfod2SCfjRjhTuu3 | Will DeepMind ship in 2023? | Must be GPT-3.5/llama/segment-anything level and usable by api or open-source wts.
| 2023-04-16T00:24:54 | 2023-12-13T17:31:23 | 2023-12-13T17:31:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZOK2RNpmJSqeTXLuhkLD | Will Trump promise to never be a candidate for any office in exchange for no jail time related to any indictment? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T20:46:16 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:40:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aNSUb9qAcV4QQwrLnusk | Will Chris Christie win any states in the 2024 GOP primaries? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T20:41:02 | 2024-07-28T03:27:05 | 2024-07-28T03:27:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f1YgZKX840iFGWg74nBY | Will Nikki Haley win any states in the 2024 GOP primaries? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T20:40:18 | 2024-03-05T23:09:35 | 2024-03-05T23:09:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KS2WftLLUKQqb7xLmOSx | Will Mark Meadows run for any office in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T20:38:04 | 2024-12-12T00:57:24 | 2024-12-12T00:57:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TVuPwa6aKF0dARLQO10u | Will Alyssa Farah run for any office in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T20:35:26 | 2024-12-12T00:56:59 | 2024-12-12T00:56:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g1LFNnsjSYvtCLQpKyxb | Will Jared Kushner run for any office in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T20:31:51 | 2024-12-05T07:27:09 | 2024-12-05T07:27:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nyJYsemjUkRCMUGdoIEn | Will Diane Feinstein outlive Jimmy Carter? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T20:28:49 | 2023-09-29T06:47:19 | 2023-09-29T06:47:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zE14qSMUpGqaHxEVwa90 | Will Jimmy Carter outlive Henry Kissinger | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T17:56:28 | 2023-11-30T10:42:55 | 2023-11-30T10:42:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8vcbEOxaDWnljfEVDGAe | Will Russia control western Bakhmut by May 15? | Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, Ukraine, by May 15, 2023 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this location is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains s... | 2023-04-15T17:49:32 | 2023-05-15T16:59:00 | 2023-05-15T17:36:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UCPATFk6PvGFyGO4HHYw | Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-15T16:30:13 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:02:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4IFVPhpWzRKaLBYuGDfp | 2023 Chess Championship: Will there be MORE drawn games than with decisive results? | After 10 games it's 6 Draws vs 5 Wins.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023 | 2023-04-15T10:34:19 | 2023-04-30T06:43:53 | 2023-04-30T06:43:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7saOUy7MabAtKEBq5rvg | Will Bitcoin hit $100k before it next hits $10k? | To be resolved by the Coin Market Cap price (or a suitable alternative if that goes defunct before this becomes resolvable). Resolves at the next time the price at the resolution source shows either a price above $100k or below $10k, close date to be extended until then. | 2023-04-15T10:28:10 | 2024-12-06T07:35:09 | 2024-12-06T07:35:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cA1IUPTb7SNZM72726yf | Will Netanyahu government hold until end of 2023 | Bibi Netanyahu is heading a very unstable government trying to pass judiciary reform and facing mass protest. Will the dismantling of the government and earlier election announcement happen before 1/1/2024. Market will resolve yes if no early election plans are announced in 2023 | 2023-04-15T04:15:29 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:51:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m83daWiya35DjaA3kyqd | Will nuclear energy be a relevant topic in Germany's election 2025? | Germany shuts down its last nuclear power plants today (April 15). Lindner (FDP), Merz (CDU), and Söder (CSU) called for extensions instead. Was this just rhethorics or an actually topic they want to press further long-term?
Germany's next federal election is October 2025. The CDU and Merz are currently leading the po... | 2023-04-15T03:17:41 | 2025-02-21T16:00:36 | 2025-02-21T16:08:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CwezLZZymiTwpHuxsBDP | Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates in 2023? | Resolves YES if the Reserve Bank of Australia lowers the cash rate target at any point in 2023 | 2023-04-15T00:42:42 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2023-12-31T08:31:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-el5Krw9nGBGVJjP9VWWm | Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 750k subscribers by December 15th? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T23:59:18 | 2023-12-15T23:59:00 | 2023-12-16T02:38:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-llqWaWoR1gQzv8u8dM9E | Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 750k subscribers by the end of November? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T23:55:09 | 2023-11-30T23:59:00 | 2023-12-10T01:09:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8iq155XmZB5o19QUtrkh | Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 750k subscribers by the end of October? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T23:50:28 | 2023-10-31T23:59:00 | 2023-11-05T16:46:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-djLn1yixvWecElzpt0IR | Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 725k subscribers by October 15th? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T23:33:45 | 2023-10-15T23:59:00 | 2023-10-18T00:06:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xkACtZ0f81fSELCeGb3D | Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 700k subscribers by the end of August? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T23:12:31 | 2023-08-29T04:20:30 | 2023-08-29T04:20:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UTlgrZeTcrnUHnzO8epa | Will Apple release a new version of Magic Mouse in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-14T20:46:00 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2023-12-31T05:10:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QwDDo849MTXjj9KS67Jq | Will Dianne Feinstein be a member of the Senate at the end of this year? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-14T18:01:18 | 2023-09-29T07:37:26 | 2023-09-29T07:37:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aUsvvf14Vy25yONXQME9 | Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5 in 2023? | Resolves YES if there is public knowledge of the existence of a LLM known as GPT-4.5 by OpenAI | 2023-04-14T15:15:20 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:16:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wAdTbjdwAprJY1BQYRUH | Will Ethereum's price be above $1900 on May 31st? | Resolves on May 31st at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD
| 2023-04-14T14:52:32 | 2023-05-31T21:00:42 | 2023-05-31T21:00:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kPk8UW7zmUEWnYMc46Jz | Will Ethereum's price be above $1800 on May 31st? | Resolves on May 31st at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD
| 2023-04-14T14:52:28 | 2023-05-31T21:04:09 | 2023-05-31T21:04:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ijSVc91PDJkWsdu7zFsu | Will Ethereum's price be above $2000 on April 30th? | Resolves on April 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD | 2023-04-14T14:15:00 | 2023-04-30T21:07:41 | 2023-04-30T21:07:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Tvep8R3RmY4pqES6W6CK | Will Apple launch a new IPad this year? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-14T12:11:24 | 2023-12-31T23:07:28 | 2023-12-31T23:07:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TQiyIDFkCqrAxD1NbAU8 | Will sales of plant-based meats increase over 2023? | Note (February 2024)
Data is already available and suggests a decline in sales. However, I committed to resolving this based on GFI's report when it becomes available, which may not be until Spring 2024. I believe it is bad practice to do otherwise, as clear as the already available data may be. Contrary to what is c... | 2023-04-14T10:42:16 | 2024-04-17T09:28:34 | 2024-04-17T09:28:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RMphZSBuVuuOMTa3vcCC | Will the UK's FTSE 100 end 2023 above 8,000? | Will the UK's FTSE 100 be above 8,000 at the end of the final trading day of 2023?
If the FTSE 100 stops existing or has such a major change that this question can't be meaningfuly answered, the market will resolve to N/A. | 2023-04-14T05:07:09 | 2023-12-29T06:07:59 | 2023-12-29T06:07:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-75ck6ZM3xZmxkhaz21fR | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 655k subscribers in April? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T04:21:54 | 2023-05-01T03:09:48 | 2023-05-01T03:09:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E8pccCLq7c62dbDNrQj2 | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 653k subscribers in April? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T04:18:37 | 2023-05-01T03:11:35 | 2023-05-01T03:11:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HClG8synUG7jVnjjjkdF | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 652k subscribers in April? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T04:17:52 | 2023-04-30T20:49:15 | 2023-04-30T20:49:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mehKBP6eB0DRxjXeZh85 | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 651k subscribers in April? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T04:17:39 | 2023-04-28T05:47:33 | 2023-04-28T05:47:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5uD7L4v9at7F52rNfskP | Will Destiny's main YouTube channel reach 650k subscribers in April? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-14T03:47:36 | 2023-04-24T12:55:47 | 2023-04-24T12:55:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dfIENlDWblXNSHCk6PGo | Will the suspected US intelligence leaker be convicted before 2026? | Will Jack Teixeira, the former National Guardsman who was taken into custody on April 13, be convicted in relation to the leaked US classified documents before 2026? | 2023-04-13T23:34:10 | 2024-04-11T16:20:17 | 2024-04-11T16:20:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EIp12rzjRQXgTlKFC4cV | Will Dianne Feinstein leave office by 2023-07-13? | In the last week, two US Representatives have called for Senator Dianne Feinstein to resign.
This market will resolve to NO if Dianne Feinstein is still US Senator at the closing time of 2023-07-13 4:59 PM. This market will resolve to YES if Feinstein resigns or passes away, as confirmed by a news report, before that ... | 2023-04-13T18:43:21 | 2023-07-12T16:59:00 | 2023-07-12T17:24:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2DkNsFkUm3o1mFtXtXuf | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15778/trump-guilty-in-manhattan-by-election-day/
On March 30, 2023, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was charged with 34 felony counts associated with falsifying business records. The indictments by a Manhattan grand jury stem from his alleged role in hush mon... | 2023-04-13T18:28:15 | 2024-05-30T14:25:58 | 2024-05-30T14:25:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zFEqOGByyYrvg1rTwb8p | Will Gallup's poll on America's most important problems have at least 1% of respondents identify AI by the end of 2023? | Inspired by this tweet.
You can see the current poll results here. If "Advancement of computers/technology" displays at 1% or higher before the end of the year, this market resolves YES. | 2023-04-13T18:26:07 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T12:55:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HvaUf51rF9gP5lGZePpo | Will Blue Origin’s New Glenn be used for the ESCAPADE mission as planned (ie. be ready to launch by August 2024) | This question resolves YES if the New Glenn rocket is used to launch the ESCAPADE mission during the 2024 launch window (even if it launches a couple weeks late). If ESCAPADE does not launch for other reasons but New Glenn is very clearly otherwise ready and not the cause of the delay then it will also resolve YES. | 2023-04-13T18:23:48 | 2024-09-13T15:36:49 | 2024-09-13T15:36:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yIhcPRYZqUcWAnrggAyI | Will Melania and Barron campaign with Donald during the primary? | Resolves YES if BOTH Melania and Barron are present with Donald in person at a campaign event before the GOP convention next August. | 2023-04-13T16:39:03 | 2024-08-08T17:29:51 | 2024-08-08T17:29:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rQY95pddmlLrPmt4ebPO | Will Primoz Roglic start the 2023 Tour de France? | Race starts 1 July 2023. | 2023-04-13T10:58:12 | 2023-07-01T01:00:00 | 2023-07-01T11:33:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-28v86jlVNaPiPW889veU | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15796/russian-athletes-barred-from-2024-olympics/
After the Russian's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms; sanctions, boycotts, protests, oil and gas embargoes, corpo... | 2023-04-13T09:49:32 | 2024-07-26T12:00:00 | 2024-07-27T11:15:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-l4ejd8Uv8nZ87GZGmrtW | Will Emmanuel Macron dissolve the French National Assembly before the end of his term? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15857/macrons-dissolution-of-the-national-assembly/
The President of France has the right to dissolve the National Assembly, the lower house of the bicameral French Parliament. In this case, the new elections for the National Assembly will be held.
As Macron lost his majority in p... | 2023-04-13T09:17:56 | 2024-06-19T18:28:01 | 2024-06-19T18:28:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0yAQtlFHk78IR0Ajx3ce | Will Trump be indicted again? (by 7/1) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-13T07:59:12 | 2023-06-14T15:27:25 | 2023-06-14T15:27:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tWm4uDhVddXt7E22ujfi | Will Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2026? | Release of the launch clamps after ignition counts as a launch.
@/enaz/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket
@/Mqrius/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-launch-32ffc3496c5c
@/Mqrius/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-launch-702b94d1bd30
@/Mqrius/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-launch
See also:
@/Mqrius/will-ulas-vulcan-launch-bef... | 2023-04-13T06:43:06 | 2025-01-16T04:49:21 | 2025-01-16T04:49:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c837Ol3O2882rqOyJOee | Will Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2025? | Release of the launch clamps after ignition counts as a launch.
@/enaz/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket
@/Mqrius/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-launch-32ffc3496c5c
@/Mqrius/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-launch-702b94d1bd30
@/Mqrius/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-launch
See also:
@/Mqrius/will-ulas-vulcan-launch-bef... | 2023-04-13T06:43:04 | 2024-12-31T06:03:44 | 2024-12-31T06:03:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N52wrB59yeeQutap3ZZe | Will ULA's Vulcan launch before 2024? | When the launch clamps release after ignition, that counts as a launch for this market.
@/Mqrius/will-ulas-vulcan-launch-before-the
@/Mqrius/will-ulas-vulcan-launch-before-octo@/Mqrius/will-ulas-vulcan-launch-before-2024See also:
@/Mqrius/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-launch-32ffc3496c5c
@/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-u... | 2023-04-13T06:32:06 | 2023-12-31T14:06:41 | 2023-12-31T14:06:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w8ds7kBOtKFvDAPNcd4K | Will the #3 Sacramento Kings win their First Round Series against the #6 Golden State Warriors in the 2023 NBA Playoffs? | This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games).
Additional markets:
[markets] | 2023-04-13T06:00:31 | 2023-04-30T15:14:33 | 2023-04-30T15:14:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6OUoXVwTR98SW7LCW5cC | Will anyone be elected to political office while promising to outsource all their decision-making to an AI before 2025? | Will someone post evidence in the comments before market close that convinces me that someone, anywhere in the world, was elected to a political office while promising during their campaign to outsource all their official decisions to any kind of AI software? Also resolves YES if a piece of AI software is elected to a... | 2023-04-13T04:22:22 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T21:46:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sVkaxYqTmQOG70ZewGW4 | Will Lai Ching-te be elected president of Taiwan? | The election is January 13,m 2024. Lai is the nominee of the Democratic People's Party (DPP), the party of current incumbent Tsai Ing-wen, and the favorite. | 2023-04-13T02:33:16 | 2024-01-13T08:31:22 | 2024-01-13T08:31:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gZNiyir7Re8VPjbiDg4x | Will Destiny's article about Mr. Girl be out by June 15th? | [markets] | 2023-04-12T20:41:18 | 2023-06-16T08:50:45 | 2023-06-16T08:50:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6N3OTj8HaNdhUsp7j3nA | Will Destiny's article about Mr. Girl be out by May 15th? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-04-12T20:39:34 | 2023-05-15T21:35:40 | 2023-05-15T21:35:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kqoSWKz5lvI9BLI4MvRC | Will Destiny's article about Mr. Girl be out by the end of April? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-04-12T20:37:26 | 2023-04-30T19:27:17 | 2023-04-30T19:27:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XVsHSWdiSZEOHtC0cdHj | Will Destiny's article about Mr. Girl be out by the end of May? | [tweet][markets] | 2023-04-12T20:36:37 | 2023-06-01T04:05:39 | 2023-06-01T04:05:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NLM7WNzyU3lZ90n3m7ci | Will Ukraine win its war with Russia before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-12T16:53:49 | 2023-12-31T15:01:38 | 2023-12-31T15:01:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SYtERJ4yRQ7e37Sg5AH2 | Will Starship launch on its first attempt? | If SpaceX puts up a livestream and then scrubs for technical reasons, this market resolves No.
If it can't launch due to weather or range violations, then the market remains open.
If the hold down clamps release, this market resolves Yes.
If the engines ignite but the hold down clamps don't release, this resolves N... | 2023-04-12T15:33:20 | 2023-04-17T06:16:05 | 2023-04-17T06:16:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2UxvIlsD7tdL3cpEZUTJ | April 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000? | If in April 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | 2023-04-12T14:42:55 | 2023-04-30T16:59:00 | 2023-05-04T04:28:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1IT0aE7dppNKCzEnQV0x | Will FTX be considered "relaunched" at the end of 2024? | According to Reuters, attending a U.S. bankruptcy court hearing about the case, the possibility of rebooting/relaunching FTX is being discussed.
"As it looks to the future, FTX is negotiating with stakeholders about options for restarting its crypto exchange, and it may make a decision on that in the current quarter, ... | 2023-04-12T14:20:23 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T02:31:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5hLqCCnMnPpZyG3d6iAo | Will Destiny talk to Kyle Kulinski in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-12T13:14:23 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:10:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hVZixnAf6VSn0kFcSHGm | Will Destiny talk to Milo Yiannopoulos again in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-11T22:24:19 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:30:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ds0KWBymU7HdRmzQr7fu | Will there be a Simpson's episode on ChatGPT by the end of 2023? | The Simpsons are infamous for predicting the future, particularly in World/Politics events.
Resolves yes if they have an episode which is about LLMs or ChatGPT, or even if the episode is written by an LLM. | 2023-04-11T21:41:00 | 2023-12-31T23:08:37 | 2023-12-31T23:08:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gar3ykAiArx67EJ0a0zZ | Will Trump be indicted again? (by 10/1) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-11T18:33:37 | 2023-06-14T15:27:41 | 2023-06-14T15:27:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yxp8Bift3FXi83bYI0mU | Will The Uncensored America Debate Start before 8:30pm EST? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-11T17:06:00 | 2023-04-11T17:30:00 | 2023-04-11T17:30:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RZm5ySu1bvmJpQaytxxN | Will legacy Blue checks on Twitter be gone by 4/21? | [tweet]Elon Musk made a tweet with a date in it.. You know the drill.
YES: During 4/20 most blue checkmarks of non-paying accounts are removed.
NO: Only a very small amout is removed (less than ~10% of non-paying users) or they are returned during the the course of the day (due to technical difficulties or for any ot... | 2023-04-11T12:17:52 | 2023-04-20T22:00:00 | 2023-04-21T02:55:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dnpf1HN8DLmLoD6QFm9v | Will The Winds of Winter be released before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-11T09:21:33 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-02T21:53:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ErbdEg40CkexDoYvZ1WI | Will the Winds of Winter be released in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-11T09:20:44 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:17:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c3XBcJSs03mxtFwYO5mb | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15849/ukrainian-control-of-mariupol-jan-1-2024/
Mariupol is a city in southeastern Ukraine located on the north coast of the Sea of Azov, which is currently under Russian occupation. Before the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine it had a population of over 400,000 residents, and it w... | 2023-04-11T09:00:13 | 2024-01-01T14:59:00 | 2024-01-07T06:31:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MKq8ichWJSIg921L8Kua | Will Scott Alexander have a baby before 2025? | Live birth before 2025 | 2023-04-11T08:22:29 | 2023-12-23T01:20:49 | 2023-12-23T01:20:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hc83j98gWRmI0aKtE7JH | Will Destiny talk to Brittany Venti in 2023? | [markets] | 2023-04-11T02:20:24 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:14:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
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