Datasets:
collingray
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forecasting

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mani-0mVwi9Kbipe9eC7wG0Xj
Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15629/apple-virtual-reality-headset/ WWDC is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023. Tom's Guide has collected several rumors and reports that Apple plans to announce some kind of Augmented Reality device at WWDC 2023.
2023-04-10T18:40:28
2023-06-07T18:27:37
2023-06-07T18:27:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dTOJy0Ed4CNsdBYwh23J
Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15630/apple-mixed-reality-headset/ WWDC is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023. Tom's Guide has collected several rumors and reports that Apple plans to announce some kind of Augmented Reality device at WWDC 2023.
2023-04-10T18:38:27
2023-06-10T03:02:58
2023-06-10T03:02:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kNCNQ2I8RgXZTrrM67WD
Will S&P 500 increase in Q2 2023?
The S&P closed at 3955.00 in Q3 2022, 3839.50 in Q4, and 4109.31 in Q1 2023. Will it increase from open on 2023-04-03 (4102.20) to close on 2023-06-30 (4450.38)? Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
2023-04-10T16:13:57
2023-06-30T14:03:03
2023-06-30T14:03:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wGwGmUq2QwDmWSHDcDNI
Will stock markets include limit orders by June 2023?
This applies to the current reskinned (binary) version of stocks and not a new implementation like certs, etc. My reasoning for leaving them out: 1. It makes the stocks wiggle more 2. My model of how the destiny stocks went is that power users sucked lots of mana from a community they weren't in via limit orders and left that community with less mana to play with. I think it'll be better for a stonk-using community if the stonk users trade mana amongst themselves
2023-04-10T14:58:04
2023-05-31T23:59:00
2023-06-01T05:25:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4b1H3QMXPFiy28hFdVyj
Will 'Baldur's Gate 3' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?
If 'Baldur's Gate 3' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Baldur's Gate 3' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO. Baldur's Gate markets: https://manifold.markets/group/baldurs-gate
2023-04-10T07:22:49
2023-11-13T09:36:35
2023-11-13T09:36:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2FrsrlhPimv0fqrEKXYw
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 21st, 2023?
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. April 21st refers to local time at the launch site. Note: if there is a successful launch or vehicle destruction prior to the 21st, I will resolve this market NO immediately. This week: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-0becacaa1884 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1bf5c0002512 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-bd3fb4f7bd63 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-a5458089285c (you are here) Weekend: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-035a6a8cb650 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d4d54a56a663 Next week: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d3841fc5bf50 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-623e7aec9a99 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-02945bdee2d7 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-69d0bd609254 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-af11b75d3277
2023-04-10T02:03:11
2023-04-20T06:34:10
2023-04-20T06:34:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9yUr4o1BgrvMSXPTY6Nk
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 20th, 2023?
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. April 20th refers to local time at the launch site. Note: if there is a successful launch or vehicle destruction prior to the 20th, I will resolve this market NO immediately. This week: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-0becacaa1884 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1bf5c0002512 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-bd3fb4f7bd63 (you are here) @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-a5458089285c Weekend: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-035a6a8cb650 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d4d54a56a663 Next week: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d3841fc5bf50 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-623e7aec9a99 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-02945bdee2d7 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-69d0bd609254 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-af11b75d3277
2023-04-10T02:02:34
2023-04-20T05:55:17
2023-04-20T05:55:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7tIv8lZqCL73vfi3CPCf
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 19th, 2023?
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. April 19th refers to local time at the launch site. Note: if there is a successful launch or vehicle destruction prior to the 19th, I will resolve this market NO immediately. This week: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-0becacaa1884 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1bf5c0002512 (you are here) @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-bd3fb4f7bd63 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-a5458089285c Weekend: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-035a6a8cb650 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d4d54a56a663 Next week: @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-d3841fc5bf50 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-623e7aec9a99 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-02945bdee2d7 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-69d0bd609254 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-af11b75d3277
2023-04-10T02:01:47
2023-04-19T21:59:00
2023-04-19T22:16:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WO65IbNRFRrBcRJImwtE
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 18th, 2023?
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. April 18th refers to local time at the launch site. Note: if there is a successful launch or vehicle destruction prior to the 18th, I will resolve this market NO immediately. @/chrisjbillington/will-starships-orbital-test-flight @/chrisjbillington/will-starships-orbital-flight-test @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-0becacaa1884 (you are here) @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1bf5c0002512 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-bd3fb4f7bd63 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-a5458089285c
2023-04-10T02:01:08
2023-04-18T09:59:00
2023-04-18T12:26:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-z3nqMyJsDBbENesdYuMM
When LeBron James reties, will they have at least 41,000 career points?
As per https://www.nba.com/stats/alltime/
2023-04-09T23:01:30
2024-12-30T23:55:30
2024-12-30T23:55:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8GGaqA5DfHtPVDenbmQW
Will Taylor Swift win a Grammy at the 2024 Grammy Awards?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-09T22:45:57
2024-02-06T18:34:59
2024-02-06T18:34:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NwshDbOg8aR7xYCsBju1
Will Destiny's Podcast last 20 episodes?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-09T21:45:38
2024-09-10T16:59:00
2024-10-02T13:10:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5Axil7PqSwXEcLfN8ysC
Will a majority of voters in South Australia vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum?
A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states). If a majority of voters in South Australia vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to YES. If a majority of voters in South Australia do not vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to NO. If the referendum is not held, this market will resolve to N/A.
2023-04-09T17:11:07
2023-10-17T23:13:51
2023-10-17T23:13:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XmlSSWVR21cqD8qETkXh
Will a majority of voters in Victoria vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum?
A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states). If a majority of voters in Victoria vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to YES. If a majority of voters in Victoria do not vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to NO. If the referendum is not held, this market will resolve to N/A.
2023-04-09T17:08:49
2023-10-23T15:37:13
2023-10-23T15:37:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PLf0lJ3MhkNhNwFD6btP
Will a majority of voters in Tasmania vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum?
A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states). If a majority of voters in Tasmania vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to YES. If a majority of voters in Tasmania do not vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to NO. If the referendum is not held, this market will resolve to N/A.
2023-04-09T17:04:16
2023-10-17T23:16:41
2023-10-17T23:16:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3ptkLzMrMyx8wkZEBUcM
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any Pixar film by 2024?
The highest grossing Pixar movie domestically is 'Incredibles 2', which took in $608,581,744 at the box-office. Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' beat that number? The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/ If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $608,581,744, this market will resolve to "YES" This market will resolve to "NO" if once the December 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized it hasn't reached $608,581,744, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point.
2023-04-09T17:00:31
2024-01-01T05:13:02
2024-01-01T05:13:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eK5Ze7BnMPgl4Bg0LeIE
Will the Golden State Warriors beat the Sacramento Kings in the first round of the NBA playoffs?
This is a series long bet - which team advances, not whether the Warriors win at least one game. Apr 17, 1:33pm: Will the Warriors beat the Kings in the first round of the NBA playoffs? → Will the Golden State Warriors beat the Sacramento Kings in the first round of the NBA playoffs?
2023-04-09T16:58:40
2023-04-30T18:35:02
2023-04-30T18:35:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YqYqOXOUcWurTbQB4uOx
Has Taylor Swift actually broken up with her boyfriend?
As has been reported here for example: https://www.elle.com/culture/celebrities/a43545930/why-taylor-swift-joe-alwyn-broke-up-april-2023/ Resolves as soon as I'm confident of the answer
2023-04-09T16:36:34
2023-05-02T20:47:20
2023-05-02T20:47:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1swbky7U14fIElqT5Y8w
Will Destiny talk to Jidion again in April?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-09T16:01:12
2023-04-25T14:03:22
2023-04-25T14:03:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-T0clts2fAcRIacSJ9qGG
Will Destiny debate someone about AI existential risk by the end of 2023?
The debate must primarily focus on existential risk, not just briefly touch on it and move on.
2023-04-09T15:17:11
2023-06-26T21:03:45
2023-06-26T21:03:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pFX4jSk6LkHm2nwdMF9b
Will Destiny talk to Sneako in April?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-09T14:06:11
2023-04-24T14:18:29
2023-04-24T14:18:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Juau2eNZRjcsCYK6FW4u
Will Destiny talk to LowTierGod in April?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-09T14:05:27
2023-05-01T03:46:41
2023-05-01T03:46:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MDMtcOwTFgXRD9oFCqbN
Will Ding Liren become the world chess champion in 2023?
Resolves YES if before 30th April, Ding wins the required points in the World Chess Championship currently ongoing in Kazakhstan.
2023-04-09T12:02:41
2023-04-30T08:16:54
2023-04-30T08:16:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sCxa2JvAnu1Q0BT3kr2O
Will Ian Nepomniatchi become the world chess champion in 2023?
Resolves YES if before 30th April Nepo wins the required points in the World Chess Championship currently ongoing in Kazakhstan.
2023-04-09T12:01:10
2023-04-30T08:17:27
2023-04-30T08:17:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2vxkP7mYX1vcVIRKxcZN
Will the meaning of the phrase "among us" associated with the meme be largely forgotten by the end of 2024?
Will be resolved based on google search stats, my best judgment and/or discussion in comments to this market. I will not participate in betting on this market.
2023-04-09T11:45:16
2025-01-01T12:04:59
2025-01-01T12:04:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y3xZXcMTM9jzCZ4vR7zP
Will Russia control Bakhmut by May 16th?
Copied from Jack Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by May 16, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 16. [image](Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.) Related: [markets]
2023-04-09T11:42:38
2023-04-21T15:50:27
2023-04-21T15:50:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DiZpnejtdSg9EAkEDHft
Will Barack Obama, George Bush and Bill Clinton have a joint press conference by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-09T01:48:34
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-01T00:16:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eRo29BUNod3rEZsqIMS9
Will Donald Trump claim to have a solution for the existential threat of AI (but not say what it is) by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if he claims to have it but he also has to not reveal what it is before resolution. This would qualify for instance: "Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for being here today. I am so proud to announce that I, Donald J. Trump, have an absolutely tremendous solution to the existential threat of AI. I know, I know, it's incredible, but it's true. Now, I have to tell you, folks, that the issue of artificial intelligence has become massive, just huge. These computers, they're getting smarter every day, and some people are scared, really scared. But don't worry, because I have the best solution. The best. Nobody else could have come up with this. Believe me. As your president, I would make sure that we take care of this AI problem. I have a plan, a fantastic plan, that will keep America safe and ensure that we continue to be the leaders in technology, the best in the world. But here's the thing, folks – and it's very important – I can't reveal the details of this incredible plan just yet. No, no, I can't. You see, I need to be elected first. We need to make America great again, and once we do that, we can implement my tremendous solution to the AI threat. So, trust me when I say that I have the perfect answer to the AI problem. It's going to be great, just tremendous. But I need your support, I need your votes. Let's come together, make America great again, and show the world that we are ready to face the future, AI and all, with confidence, strength, and the incredible leadership of Donald J. Trump. Thank you, and God bless America!"
2023-04-08T22:35:25
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T07:59:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5EQnHLxBTmrjhraLYYEx
Will Destiny and Richard Hanania do a stream or podcast together by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-08T19:28:50
2024-07-27T09:14:49
2024-07-27T09:14:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8n0uoAOQcdSovwhxyIv9
Will DeSantis announce his presidential candidacy by the end of June?
[markets]
2023-04-08T18:55:40
2023-05-25T08:09:30
2023-05-25T08:09:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-B9JzAty5nb1Q81DshV8g
Will Donald Trump criticise AI before 2025?
Specifically the technology itself, not just people involved, e.g. Sam Altman or OpenAI.
2023-04-08T18:38:51
2024-01-16T08:02:23
2024-01-16T08:02:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CWWOxhP0j9zq4nw0Hz4J
Will Destiny's video "Erudite Bridge Almost Catches Fire After Nuclear Debate" reach 200k views by 4/15 9 A.M. PST?
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/tc5h-V5RNgM)If possible, post a screenshot of the viewcount. Otherwise, I will use the current viewcount number that I see when I resolve the market. I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if the number of traders is too low.
2023-04-08T18:00:48
2023-04-15T11:31:29
2023-04-15T11:31:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-09QzYnUOzko7FHOA3W3p
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly debate Gary Marcus by the end of 2023?
A podcast they're both on would count. So would a series of articles where they each respond to the other. (There must be at least 1 article from each of them that explicitly responds to the other's claims.) Gary seems open to it.
2023-04-08T15:01:22
2023-07-30T11:40:29
2023-07-30T11:40:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Pu1bdiayLH4eMmLjg2gI
Will OpenAI release an android app for chatGPT in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-08T13:45:33
2023-07-25T08:20:27
2023-07-25T08:20:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GByPKQMTlzI7GAvwFj75
Will OpenAI release an iOS app for chatGPT in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-08T13:45:12
2023-05-18T10:11:26
2023-05-18T10:11:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uiygSoKjsKyi2Qe4aI3D
Will a podcast with an AI system get >= 1 million listens/views by the end of 2023
Clarification - a podcast episode is what's asked for.
2023-04-08T13:21:47
2023-12-31T22:29:00
2024-01-01T07:28:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6fUwKJJlwJT9dcjbdE2o
Use phone recorded videos to create custom 3D Game environments, by 2027 end?
Doesn't have to have custom characters, those could be pre-loaded for this market. Inspired by the work on Unreal Engine alpha! [tweet]
2023-04-08T12:54:16
2023-08-24T23:10:53
2023-08-24T23:10:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XzyVOt2AabaD2c7QzCTQ
Use phone recorded videos to create custom 3D Game environments, by 2024 end?
Doesn't have to have custom characters, those could be pre-loaded for this market. Inspired by the work on Unreal Engine alpha! [tweet]
2023-04-08T12:53:53
2023-08-24T23:11:24
2023-08-24T23:11:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Z6rFPXk9HiGPLFHKBl4b
Use phone recorded videos to create custom 3D Game environments, by 2023 end?
Doesn't have to have custom characters, those could be pre-loaded for this market. Inspired by the work on Unreal Engine alpha! [tweet]
2023-04-08T12:53:17
2023-08-24T23:10:03
2023-08-24T23:10:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CnET8ifMvwEFeQ1r7oDV
Will we have a reliable detector software to differentiate between LLM generated and human generated text by 2023 end?
Resolves N/A if already happened. But i don't think it has. Everything I've tried so far gets no better than 20-30%. Prefer to have something i can try myself and check.
2023-04-08T12:45:48
2023-12-31T21:48:35
2023-12-31T21:48:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8Nlrn5DcuF29gGNOMz75
Apple releases iphone/ipad with Segment Anything by 2023 end?
Doesn't have to be exact (they'll have their own proprietary version ofc, I'm talking about the concept). There's a bit of wiggle room cuz of how implementations play out. Integration probably happens into the camera app. https://ai.facebook.com/blog/segment-anything-foundation-model-image-segmentation/
2023-04-08T12:34:32
2023-12-31T10:29:00
2023-12-31T11:22:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BnW5oiaWDeiaFHfBO72f
Samsung phone with Segment Anything by 2024 end?
Doesn't have to be exact. There's a bit of wiggle room cuz of how implementations play out. https://ai.facebook.com/blog/segment-anything-foundation-model-image-segmentation/
2023-04-08T12:32:43
2024-01-23T07:47:50
2024-01-23T07:47:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Dessk6nUnutziYhYWDVQ
Samsung phone with Segment Anything by 2023 end?
Doesn't have to be exact. There's a bit of wiggle room cuz of how implementations play out. https://ai.facebook.com/blog/segment-anything-foundation-model-image-segmentation/
2023-04-08T12:32:25
2023-12-31T10:29:00
2023-12-31T11:22:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-G5o8Mc5vAu5PRlugZyw4
2023 FIDE World Chess Championship. Will Nepomniachtchi win in Nepomniachtchi vs. Liren?
Resolution source. https://worldchampionshipcycle.fide.com/
2023-04-08T10:38:12
2023-04-30T09:49:51
2023-04-30T09:49:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gVtC0ruGPiCX4wvb6RqF
Will Donald Trump attend Jimmy Carter's state funeral?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-08T10:18:26
2025-01-09T07:50:12
2025-01-09T07:50:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EdiuUX0X1j8UjDwaW7BF
Will Rational Animations reach 200k subscribers on YouTube before 2024?
https://www.youtube.com/RationalAnimations 200k = 200000
2023-04-08T06:54:24
2023-12-09T05:32:19
2023-12-09T05:32:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rE7CqKit7PnvpU7qQogv
Will bitcoin be at least $28000 on Friday 4/21
11:59pm PST, based on coinmarketcap average price.
2023-04-08T00:03:55
2023-04-21T23:59:00
2023-04-22T00:00:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FR6H5h5o8zkrzaWhGU19
Will the conflicting federal rulings on mifepristone's availability result in a Supreme Court case by December 31, 2024?
In April 2023, two conflicting federal rulings were issued in relation to the availability of mifepristone, an abortion pill, in the United States. A federal judge in Texas invalidated the FDA's 23-year-old approval of mifepristone, while a judge in Washington state issued a ruling that contradicted the Texas decision and ordered the FDA to maintain the availability of mifepristone. These conflicting orders by two federal judges create a legal standoff that could potentially escalate to the Supreme Court. This question will resolve positively if the US Supreme Court agrees to hear a case related to the conflicting federal rulings on mifepristone's availability by December 31, 2024. The case must specifically involve the rulings issued in Texas and Washington state in April 2023. The question will resolve negatively if the Supreme Court declines to hear such a case or if there is no announcement regarding the acceptance of a case involving the conflicting federal rulings on mifepristone's availability by December 31, 2024. Relevant media sources, including but not limited to, official Supreme Court announcements, credible news outlets, and legal journals, will be used to determine the resolution.
2023-04-07T19:05:49
2024-06-13T20:03:53
2024-06-13T20:03:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LIdcPB8N9OgXzVbJv5cJ
Will it be possible to like most Tweets linking to Substack on 5/1/2023?
It seems currently not to be possible. Will this be reversed on May 1? If one cannot both post to substack and link to such new posts on May 1 this resolves to NO, otherwise YES.
2023-04-07T11:15:35
2023-05-01T16:59:00
2023-05-01T17:10:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6lGCX9X22Inq8K64DMXg
Will Destiny's video "Destiny Gets Put On The Spot With Tough 9/11 Question" reach 30k views by 4/13 9 A.M. PST?
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/cM3Q7RsELRg)If possible, post a screenshot of the viewcount. Otherwise, I will use the current viewcount number that I see when I resolve the market. I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if the number of traders is too low.
2023-04-07T10:55:28
2023-04-13T13:58:37
2023-04-13T13:58:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8Y4UL3kg1vn7EcUdhKwX
Will Premier League teams win at least 2 of the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League this year?
Apr 16, 9:04am: Will Premier League teams win 2 of the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League this year? → Will Premier League teams win at least 2 of the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League this year?
2023-04-07T07:30:41
2023-06-10T15:47:32
2023-06-10T15:47:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-q8SJ37mxqvwdDGKnd5QK
Will Jimmy Carter outlive the current Pope?
Apr 7, 9:49am: Will Jimmy Cater outlive the current Pope? → Will Jimmy Carter outlive the current Pope?
2023-04-07T06:48:42
2024-12-29T13:23:49
2024-12-29T13:23:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-R1ZK8z515lp9BZNzWQfP
If Erdogan is re-elected, will Sweden join NATO by July?
If Erdogan is not re-elected by the close date, this resolves N/A no matter if Sweden joins NATO. Resolves YES if Sweden has officially joined NATO before July 1, 2023. For Finland that was April 4. Just an announcement or joining on July 1 is not sufficient. See also the sibling market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/marktweise/if-erdogan-is-not-reelected-will-sw)
2023-04-07T05:35:28
2023-06-30T14:59:00
2023-07-01T02:03:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fP3RJOO2jOcS9VvjCgYk
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2024?
English Wikipedia, mainspace. If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count.
2023-04-07T05:06:43
2024-01-01T13:59:00
2024-01-01T18:44:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iij39Hq1vqhj7aXnupc6
Will Destiny make IRL content with Aba in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-07T03:55:42
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T18:41:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zlYaQ0nmIJirpNy2PAGY
Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-07T02:56:05
2024-01-01T12:35:02
2024-01-01T12:35:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-knsvLDKWN6stP3uS5PG6
Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-07T02:51:27
2024-01-01T12:35:46
2024-01-01T12:35:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5zWXFcOK2HZR6GZoUeT3
Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-07T02:48:29
2024-01-01T12:36:46
2024-01-01T12:36:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BZ1KsOdvlK3nHV8CD1GU
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee in 2024?
If Kamala Harris is chosen at the 2024 Democratic National Convention as the party's nominee for vice president for the 2024 United States election, this market will resolve to YES. If she is not chosen, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-04-06T23:49:37
2024-08-06T08:13:21
2024-08-06T08:13:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gLUMkDWZIS3oULRH1kmo
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024?
Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu. [image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade. Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2024? Same question except: before end of 2025 before end of 2026 before end of 2027 before end of 2028 before 2030
2023-04-06T23:29:48
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:01:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-csBu1DLVXbXiGQMWge0m
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-06T23:23:36
2024-08-06T07:51:33
2024-08-06T07:51:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KqdLyWAOwtC13OtrRRep
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win at least one state in the Democratic primaries?
Resolves YES if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the DNC's official statements.
2023-04-06T23:19:55
2024-07-04T13:11:07
2024-07-04T13:11:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QG5oXYuh0uqzD9ba1ZM6
Will Sneako refer to Destiny as being "a bot" in a live conversation before June 1st, 2023?
Must be livestreamed by Destiny on Rumble, YouTube or Kick. The market will resolve 'yes' if Sneako uses the term "bot" in reference to Destiny or verbally agrees with someone else using the term in reference to Destiny.
2023-04-06T21:34:03
2023-05-31T06:59:00
2023-05-31T23:52:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VhqFBATzcN6QDrucUmvf
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2024?
This market resolves YES, if: A member of the Forbes 30 under 30 lists is arrested and charged with fraud This happens after the date this market was opened The member had not previously been arrested and charged with fraud before It is not yet 2024
2023-04-06T20:06:01
2023-06-09T13:16:13
2023-06-09T13:16:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vReEqErhTji5snjS0it1
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2025?
This market resolves YES, if: A member of the Forbes 30 under 30 lists is arrested and charged with fraud This happens after the date this market was opened The member had not previously been arrested and charged with fraud before It is not yet 2025 EDIT: Wow, thanks Ryan Petersen!: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1644163008988602368 I just added 5,000M of liquidity to this market in case anyone needs an inducement to bet. EDIT 2: If you want to bet on other timelines, try these markets: Before 2024: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-another-forbes-30-under-30-mem-baef19697dc3 Before 2030: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-another-forbes-30-under-30-mem-51e374ea4853
2023-04-06T19:03:05
2023-06-09T13:17:14
2023-06-09T13:17:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0MLCghfWmBL2Ug17brmo
Will anyone run for political office with the promise of outsourcing all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?
Will anyone, anywhere in the world, run for any elected office with the explicit promise of outsourcing their official decisions to any kind of AI software?
2023-04-06T16:55:56
2023-06-07T19:57:45
2023-06-07T19:57:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GYqXBNPSHXH1mN46kBPE
Will Alabama win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?
Resolves true if Alabama wins the 2024 national championship in college football.
2023-04-06T15:58:58
2024-01-01T20:29:55
2024-01-01T20:29:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-X7xFLqgj9mNaAGZXmNEm
Will the iPhone 16 have a 5G modem not designed by Qualcomm?
If the iPhone 16 has the modem not designed by Qualcomm (likely the Apple designed modem), this market resolves to YES. Apr 18, 10:06am: Will the iPhone 16 have a 5G designed not designed by Qualcomm? → Will the iPhone 16 have a 5G modem not designed by Qualcomm?
2023-04-06T13:43:43
2024-10-03T08:45:10
2024-10-03T08:45:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3Zqi0jQz8M2hG7QL1bc0
In 2023, an LLM outperforms regex at extracting substrings from given string?
From an execution speed perspective, if the LLM produces correct output. Provide any examples you think are relevant. For now I'm thinking of testing with gpt-4 and Claude and some LLaMa implementation. Public experiment to see if and how well LLMs outperform regex functions in extracting from text. Can I just say, "gimme all words starting with w in this 5 line sentence", and expect it to work reliably? What about more complicated tasks? I will paste a list of 23 tasks here soon (after taking inputs, ideas from comments) and use that list of challenges to judge all models throughout 2023 that are recommended by the comments. If a model outperforms regex over majority of those tasks, then only this revolves yes.
2023-04-06T13:31:38
2023-12-31T10:29:00
2023-12-31T11:22:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ggk8EtxilVwPUWTa8AFn
Will @DwarkeshPatel's podcast with Eliezer Yudkowsky break 100k views on YouTube before May?
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/41SUp-TRVlg)
2023-04-06T11:13:20
2023-05-02T21:40:34
2023-05-02T21:40:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RO9CiEr6EmwXyatg93No
Will the US dollar be worth 100 Russian roubles before the end of 2023?
According to Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
2023-04-06T08:51:06
2023-08-15T09:36:32
2023-08-15T09:36:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Ro5JR0CU2HDxIJxThFsj
Will Ding Liren be the World Chess Champion 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-06T04:59:22
2023-04-30T11:29:00
2023-04-30T12:07:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PH8CcBXnoEiggZgwgyRJ
Will the Wisconsin Assembly impeach newly elected Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Protasiewicz in 2023? (M$1000 subsidy)
Resolves YES if the Wisconsin Assembly impeaches Janet Protasiewicz, the newly elected Wisconsin Supreme Court justice, in 2023. Otherwise NO. This question does not require the state Senate to vote to remove. Impeachment requires a majority vote in the Assembly and removal requires a 2/3 supermajority vote in the state Senate, both of which the Republican party has following the victory of the Republican candidate Knodl in a Senate race this week. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/wisconsin-gop-try-oust-new-liberal-state-supreme-court-justice-rcna78318 "A liberal just won the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Republicans are already talking about impeaching her." A GOP win in the state Senate's 8th District gave the party a supermajority — with the power to pursue impeachment of newly elected liberal Janet Protasiewicz. “If there are some that are out there that are corrupt, that are failing at their tasks, then we have the opportunity to hold them accountable … up to impeachment,” Knodl said. “Janet Protasiewicz is a Circuit Court judge right now in Milwaukee, and she has failed,” he continued. Asked whether he “would support impeaching her,” Knodl replied, “I certainly would consider it.” https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-senate-special-election-impeachment-1b2d560d3810b9388f87e1f01301b709 Related: @/jack/will-newly-elected-wisconsin-suprem Apr 6, 11:12am: Will the Wisconsin Assembly vote to impeach newly elected Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Protasiewicz in 2023? → Will the Wisconsin Assembly impeach newly elected Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Protasiewicz in 2023? (M$1000 subsidy)
2023-04-05T19:48:38
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T00:09:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jbRuvzPiqG3QXnBQ1XAV
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 17th, 2023?
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. April 17th refers to local time at the launch site. Note: if there is a successful launch or vehicle destruction prior to the 17th, I will resolve this market NO immediately. @/chrisjbillington/will-starships-orbital-test-flight @/chrisjbillington/will-starships-orbital-flight-test @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9 (you are here) @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-0becacaa1884 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1bf5c0002512 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-bd3fb4f7bd63 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-a5458089285c
2023-04-05T18:28:57
2023-04-17T05:40:32
2023-04-17T05:40:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OJQraXLNbUkYbqzTZ9yE
IF the Patriots don't make the playoffs in the 2023 NFL season, Bill Belichick will not be the head coach in 2024.
Resolves NA if they make the playoffs
2023-04-05T16:54:31
2024-01-11T15:56:00
2024-01-11T15:56:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7GibVQQeWdmD0RyhTlAX
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31, 2024?
The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Iran, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/iran/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
2023-04-05T12:45:10
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-04T02:44:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MH4Xgx3UK4NBAbYtlIEx
Will a UK General Election be held during Q4 2024?
Will a UK General Election be held with a polling date between 1st October and 31st December 2024?
2023-04-05T12:04:14
2024-12-10T22:52:34
2024-12-10T22:52:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Oi2CEVGCFdd8oBmMY7iq
Will a UK General Election be held during Q3 2024?
Will a UK General Election be held with a polling date between 1st July and 30th September 2024?
2023-04-05T11:59:32
2024-05-31T07:11:52
2024-05-31T07:11:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jlQuoI7fRWIpHdw6JNlY
Will a UK General Election be held during Q2 2024?
Will a UK General Election be held with a polling date between 1st April and 30th June 2024?
2023-04-05T11:56:16
2024-05-22T09:27:35
2024-05-22T09:27:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NZGn7L8Q5zY6MRDOQEKY
Will there be a fully self-sustaining Auto-GPT agent in 2023?
Context: https://twitter.com/SigGravitas/status/1641437094043332614 https://github.com/Torantulino/Auto-GPT The Github repo says: This program, driven by GPT-4, autonomously develops and manages businesses to increase net worth. I don't think this is the case right now - if anything, the model is spending down its budget and/or getting itself into rabbit holes. Will there be an Auto-GPT using GPT-4 that is fully self-sustaining, i.e. is taking continuous actions every day for at least 30 days without using up its budget or other non-renewable resources? (Evaluating this market will require some judgment calls.)
2023-04-05T11:44:21
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T11:08:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8XU0YiC5Sxj4TZMNZ1KX
Will Humza Yousaf remain First Minister of Scotland longer than Rishi Sunak remains Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Resolves YES if Sunak leaves office before Yousaf. Resolves NO otherwise. Leaving office on the same day will be N/A. Date of resignation taking effect is relevant; announcement of resignation (to take effect later) is not.
2023-04-05T10:47:07
2024-05-29T11:48:56
2024-05-29T11:48:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FcRHGUXF8fxMkZUROtdo
Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15721/denver-nuggets/
2023-04-05T10:08:30
2023-06-18T21:00:00
2023-06-19T04:59:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DdpRHQrL4BzhCwdKBgtr
Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15717/boston-celtics/
2023-04-05T10:08:27
2023-06-07T18:26:57
2023-06-07T18:26:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YFc4fxF4paTLXRFsuRrM
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15733/vegas-golden-knights/
2023-04-05T10:06:42
2023-06-18T21:00:00
2023-06-19T04:59:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OWkM9xZioIKKeG5RZjlX
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15773/florida-panthers/
2023-04-05T10:06:38
2023-06-15T13:09:53
2023-06-15T13:09:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Vtm5lkx0dsg69vf8Nzyh
Will the US or EU do something that will meaningfully slow AI development worldwide in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-05T10:04:30
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-15T16:17:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6glwMYCAcUNMZekfksk5
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
including tests
2023-04-05T06:11:15
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-01T01:50:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7C4YcTolN9cPNx1J7z9b
Will Newcastle United finish the 22-23 season ABOVE Manchester United in the premier league table?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-05T03:06:41
2023-05-28T11:12:46
2023-05-28T11:12:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-m9IKQeuL6KrL5nVsYjSH
Will there be a terrorist attack involving "kamikaze" drones in the United States in 2023?
Apr 5, 7:42am: Will there be a terrorist attack involving "kamikaze" drones in the United Stated in 2023? → Will there be a terrorist attack involving "kamikaze" drones in the United States in 2023?
2023-04-05T02:59:00
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T13:40:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JmSCVSKOvbT3xGwttF0q
Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare the COVID-19 pandemic officially over by the end of 2023?
The current Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, believes that COVID-19 will no longer be a major international concern by the end of this year. The criteria for this to resolve as yes is that the World Health Organization officially declares the COVID-19 pandemic to be over.
2023-04-04T21:16:30
2023-05-15T17:07:52
2023-05-15T17:07:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6Ywsdb2gA971LLKA691z
Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15765/ukraine-controls-by-7123/ Armiansk is a town in northern Crimea. It has been under Russian control since 2014 when Russia seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula. Ukraine, preparing for a likely spring counteroffensive, would like to retake Crimea, which could be a "red line" for Russian President Vladimir Putin. On April 3, 2023, The Washington Post reported that "a web of trenches shows Russia fears losing Crimea." ISW reported specific defensive preparations near Armiansk.
2023-04-04T20:50:49
2023-06-30T11:00:00
2023-07-01T05:02:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TYOc75frKzpoSLjK7Xyj
Will The US be at at war with another country by the end of 2024?
The Criteria for this market to resolve yes would be: The USA is involved in some kind of combat with one or more foreign powers. (eg China, Russia Etc.) AND a high ranking politician (eg president, VP etc) openly comments on and acknowledges an open conflict
2023-04-04T20:30:20
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T16:33:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AVP4detHFcYS3uDljJED
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to prison by November 4, 2024?
This market resolves YES if (1) Donald Trump is sentenced to a prison term on or before November 4, 2024 (the prison term may begin after November 4, 2024); AND (2) He serves at least one day in prison by December 31, 2025.
2023-04-04T18:40:47
2024-11-03T15:59:00
2024-11-06T14:36:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rldStS7vtyaZoB2gGKFD
Will Newcastle United defeat Brentford on April 8th 2023?
Yes = Newcastle United Win No = Draw, or Brentford Win
2023-04-04T17:51:28
2023-04-08T09:00:00
2023-04-08T09:16:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7WoyFd4fZA9uJZMDrBkw
Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 725k subscribers by the end of August?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny [markets]
2023-04-04T17:16:11
2023-08-31T23:59:00
2023-09-06T19:40:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LqpGRj7kY8Koeh4gbEhC
Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 700k subscribers by the end of June?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny [markets]
2023-04-04T17:13:14
2023-07-01T19:38:59
2023-07-01T19:38:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-U5JjqO17hbcyIOq43xL4
Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 700k subscribers by the end of July?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny [markets]
2023-04-04T17:09:19
2023-07-31T23:59:00
2023-08-01T11:31:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n1wGivgUEEjCENUaRE4i
Will Destiny publish two different manifestos in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T16:23:01
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T13:18:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XJRVOVAPhjBTHhlIrFME
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the Republican party's vice presidential nominee in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T15:26:30
2024-07-15T17:00:09
2024-07-15T17:00:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nNOGJ0hiPSh1yiI6uem1
Will Germany ban ChatGPT?
Inspired by this news story. Resolves YES if Germany bans ChatGPT similar to Italy before December. An EU-wide ban is sufficient as well. The ban needs to be active at close. A mere announcement is not sufficient and would resolve NO. It must be banned in all of Germany. A federal state ban is not sufficient.
2023-04-04T14:36:32
2023-11-30T14:59:00
2023-11-30T22:06:27
no
MANIFOLD