id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-0mVwi9Kbipe9eC7wG0Xj | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15629/apple-virtual-reality-headset/
WWDC is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023.
Tom's Guide has collected several rumors and reports that Apple plans to announce some kind of Augmented Reality devi... | 2023-04-10T18:40:28 | 2023-06-07T18:27:37 | 2023-06-07T18:27:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dTOJy0Ed4CNsdBYwh23J | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15630/apple-mixed-reality-headset/
WWDC is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023.
Tom's Guide has collected several rumors and reports that Apple plans to announce some kind of Augmented Reality device... | 2023-04-10T18:38:27 | 2023-06-10T03:02:58 | 2023-06-10T03:02:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kNCNQ2I8RgXZTrrM67WD | Will S&P 500 increase in Q2 2023? | The S&P closed at 3955.00 in Q3 2022, 3839.50 in Q4, and 4109.31 in Q1 2023. Will it increase from open on 2023-04-03 (4102.20) to close on 2023-06-30 (4450.38)?
Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices | 2023-04-10T16:13:57 | 2023-06-30T14:03:03 | 2023-06-30T14:03:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wGwGmUq2QwDmWSHDcDNI | Will stock markets include limit orders by June 2023? | This applies to the current reskinned (binary) version of stocks and not a new implementation like certs, etc.
My reasoning for leaving them out:
1. It makes the stocks wiggle more
2. My model of how the destiny stocks went is that power users sucked lots of mana from a community they weren't in via limit orders and... | 2023-04-10T14:58:04 | 2023-05-31T23:59:00 | 2023-06-01T05:25:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4b1H3QMXPFiy28hFdVyj | Will 'Baldur's Gate 3' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | If 'Baldur's Gate 3' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Baldur's Gate 3' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.
Baldur's Gate markets: https://manifold.markets/group/baldurs-gate | 2023-04-10T07:22:49 | 2023-11-13T09:36:35 | 2023-11-13T09:36:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2FrsrlhPimv0fqrEKXYw | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 21st, 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel ... | 2023-04-10T02:03:11 | 2023-04-20T06:34:10 | 2023-04-20T06:34:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9yUr4o1BgrvMSXPTY6Nk | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 20th, 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel ... | 2023-04-10T02:02:34 | 2023-04-20T05:55:17 | 2023-04-20T05:55:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7tIv8lZqCL73vfi3CPCf | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 19th, 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel ... | 2023-04-10T02:01:47 | 2023-04-19T21:59:00 | 2023-04-19T22:16:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WO65IbNRFRrBcRJImwtE | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 18th, 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel ... | 2023-04-10T02:01:08 | 2023-04-18T09:59:00 | 2023-04-18T12:26:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z3nqMyJsDBbENesdYuMM | When LeBron James reties, will they have at least 41,000 career points? | As per https://www.nba.com/stats/alltime/ | 2023-04-09T23:01:30 | 2024-12-30T23:55:30 | 2024-12-30T23:55:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8GGaqA5DfHtPVDenbmQW | Will Taylor Swift win a Grammy at the 2024 Grammy Awards? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-09T22:45:57 | 2024-02-06T18:34:59 | 2024-02-06T18:34:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NwshDbOg8aR7xYCsBju1 | Will Destiny's Podcast last 20 episodes? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-09T21:45:38 | 2024-09-10T16:59:00 | 2024-10-02T13:10:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5Axil7PqSwXEcLfN8ysC | Will a majority of voters in South Australia vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum? | A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states).
If a majority of voters in South Australia vote ... | 2023-04-09T17:11:07 | 2023-10-17T23:13:51 | 2023-10-17T23:13:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XmlSSWVR21cqD8qETkXh | Will a majority of voters in Victoria vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum? | A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states).
If a majority of voters in Victoria vote YES in ... | 2023-04-09T17:08:49 | 2023-10-23T15:37:13 | 2023-10-23T15:37:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PLf0lJ3MhkNhNwFD6btP | Will a majority of voters in Tasmania vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum? | A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states).
If a majority of voters in Tasmania vote YES in ... | 2023-04-09T17:04:16 | 2023-10-17T23:16:41 | 2023-10-17T23:16:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3ptkLzMrMyx8wkZEBUcM | Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any Pixar film by 2024? | The highest grossing Pixar movie domestically is 'Incredibles 2', which took in $608,581,744 at the box-office. Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' beat that number?
The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column.
https://www.boxoffic... | 2023-04-09T17:00:31 | 2024-01-01T05:13:02 | 2024-01-01T05:13:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eK5Ze7BnMPgl4Bg0LeIE | Will the Golden State Warriors beat the Sacramento Kings in the first round of the NBA playoffs? | This is a series long bet - which team advances, not whether the Warriors win at least one game.
Apr 17, 1:33pm: Will the Warriors beat the Kings in the first round of the NBA playoffs? → Will the Golden State Warriors beat the Sacramento Kings in the first round of the NBA playoffs? | 2023-04-09T16:58:40 | 2023-04-30T18:35:02 | 2023-04-30T18:35:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YqYqOXOUcWurTbQB4uOx | Has Taylor Swift actually broken up with her boyfriend? | As has been reported here for example: https://www.elle.com/culture/celebrities/a43545930/why-taylor-swift-joe-alwyn-broke-up-april-2023/
Resolves as soon as I'm confident of the answer | 2023-04-09T16:36:34 | 2023-05-02T20:47:20 | 2023-05-02T20:47:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1swbky7U14fIElqT5Y8w | Will Destiny talk to Jidion again in April? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-09T16:01:12 | 2023-04-25T14:03:22 | 2023-04-25T14:03:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T0clts2fAcRIacSJ9qGG | Will Destiny debate someone about AI existential risk by the end of 2023? | The debate must primarily focus on existential risk, not just briefly touch on it and move on. | 2023-04-09T15:17:11 | 2023-06-26T21:03:45 | 2023-06-26T21:03:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pFX4jSk6LkHm2nwdMF9b | Will Destiny talk to Sneako in April? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-09T14:06:11 | 2023-04-24T14:18:29 | 2023-04-24T14:18:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Juau2eNZRjcsCYK6FW4u | Will Destiny talk to LowTierGod in April? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-09T14:05:27 | 2023-05-01T03:46:41 | 2023-05-01T03:46:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MDMtcOwTFgXRD9oFCqbN | Will Ding Liren become the world chess champion in 2023? | Resolves YES if before 30th April, Ding wins the required points in the World Chess Championship currently ongoing in Kazakhstan. | 2023-04-09T12:02:41 | 2023-04-30T08:16:54 | 2023-04-30T08:16:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sCxa2JvAnu1Q0BT3kr2O | Will Ian Nepomniatchi become the world chess champion in 2023? | Resolves YES if before 30th April Nepo wins the required points in the World Chess Championship currently ongoing in Kazakhstan. | 2023-04-09T12:01:10 | 2023-04-30T08:17:27 | 2023-04-30T08:17:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2vxkP7mYX1vcVIRKxcZN | Will the meaning of the phrase "among us" associated with the meme be largely forgotten by the end of 2024? | Will be resolved based on google search stats, my best judgment and/or discussion in comments to this market.
I will not participate in betting on this market. | 2023-04-09T11:45:16 | 2025-01-01T12:04:59 | 2025-01-01T12:04:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y3xZXcMTM9jzCZ4vR7zP | Will Russia control Bakhmut by May 16th? | Copied from Jack
Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by May 16, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this ar... | 2023-04-09T11:42:38 | 2023-04-21T15:50:27 | 2023-04-21T15:50:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DiZpnejtdSg9EAkEDHft | Will Barack Obama, George Bush and Bill Clinton have a joint press conference by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-09T01:48:34 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:16:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eRo29BUNod3rEZsqIMS9 | Will Donald Trump claim to have a solution for the existential threat of AI (but not say what it is) by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if he claims to have it but he also has to not reveal what it is before resolution.
This would qualify for instance:
"Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for being here today. I am so proud to announce that I, Donald J. Trump, have an absolutely tremendous solution to the existential threat of AI. I know, I ... | 2023-04-08T22:35:25 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:59:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5EQnHLxBTmrjhraLYYEx | Will Destiny and Richard Hanania do a stream or podcast together by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-08T19:28:50 | 2024-07-27T09:14:49 | 2024-07-27T09:14:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8n0uoAOQcdSovwhxyIv9 | Will DeSantis announce his presidential candidacy by the end of June? | [markets] | 2023-04-08T18:55:40 | 2023-05-25T08:09:30 | 2023-05-25T08:09:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-B9JzAty5nb1Q81DshV8g | Will Donald Trump criticise AI before 2025? | Specifically the technology itself, not just people involved, e.g. Sam Altman or OpenAI. | 2023-04-08T18:38:51 | 2024-01-16T08:02:23 | 2024-01-16T08:02:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CWWOxhP0j9zq4nw0Hz4J | Will Destiny's video "Erudite Bridge Almost Catches Fire After Nuclear Debate" reach 200k views by 4/15 9 A.M. PST? | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/tc5h-V5RNgM)If possible, post a screenshot of the viewcount. Otherwise, I will use the current viewcount number that I see when I resolve the market.
I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if the number of traders is too low. | 2023-04-08T18:00:48 | 2023-04-15T11:31:29 | 2023-04-15T11:31:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-09QzYnUOzko7FHOA3W3p | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly debate Gary Marcus by the end of 2023? | A podcast they're both on would count. So would a series of articles where they each respond to the other. (There must be at least 1 article from each of them that explicitly responds to the other's claims.)
Gary seems open to it. | 2023-04-08T15:01:22 | 2023-07-30T11:40:29 | 2023-07-30T11:40:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pu1bdiayLH4eMmLjg2gI | Will OpenAI release an android app for chatGPT in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-08T13:45:33 | 2023-07-25T08:20:27 | 2023-07-25T08:20:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GByPKQMTlzI7GAvwFj75 | Will OpenAI release an iOS app for chatGPT in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-08T13:45:12 | 2023-05-18T10:11:26 | 2023-05-18T10:11:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uiygSoKjsKyi2Qe4aI3D | Will a podcast with an AI system get >= 1 million listens/views by the end of 2023 | Clarification - a podcast episode is what's asked for. | 2023-04-08T13:21:47 | 2023-12-31T22:29:00 | 2024-01-01T07:28:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6fUwKJJlwJT9dcjbdE2o | Use phone recorded videos to create custom 3D Game environments, by 2027 end? | Doesn't have to have custom characters, those could be pre-loaded for this market. Inspired by the work on Unreal Engine alpha!
[tweet] | 2023-04-08T12:54:16 | 2023-08-24T23:10:53 | 2023-08-24T23:10:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XzyVOt2AabaD2c7QzCTQ | Use phone recorded videos to create custom 3D Game environments, by 2024 end? | Doesn't have to have custom characters, those could be pre-loaded for this market. Inspired by the work on Unreal Engine alpha!
[tweet] | 2023-04-08T12:53:53 | 2023-08-24T23:11:24 | 2023-08-24T23:11:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z6rFPXk9HiGPLFHKBl4b | Use phone recorded videos to create custom 3D Game environments, by 2023 end? | Doesn't have to have custom characters, those could be pre-loaded for this market. Inspired by the work on Unreal Engine alpha!
[tweet] | 2023-04-08T12:53:17 | 2023-08-24T23:10:03 | 2023-08-24T23:10:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CnET8ifMvwEFeQ1r7oDV | Will we have a reliable detector software to differentiate between LLM generated and human generated text by 2023 end? | Resolves N/A if already happened. But i don't think it has. Everything I've tried so far gets no better than 20-30%.
Prefer to have something i can try myself and check. | 2023-04-08T12:45:48 | 2023-12-31T21:48:35 | 2023-12-31T21:48:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Nlrn5DcuF29gGNOMz75 | Apple releases iphone/ipad with Segment Anything by 2023 end? | Doesn't have to be exact (they'll have their own proprietary version ofc, I'm talking about the concept). There's a bit of wiggle room cuz of how implementations play out.
Integration probably happens into the camera app.
https://ai.facebook.com/blog/segment-anything-foundation-model-image-segmentation/ | 2023-04-08T12:34:32 | 2023-12-31T10:29:00 | 2023-12-31T11:22:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BnW5oiaWDeiaFHfBO72f | Samsung phone with Segment Anything by 2024 end? | Doesn't have to be exact. There's a bit of wiggle room cuz of how implementations play out.
https://ai.facebook.com/blog/segment-anything-foundation-model-image-segmentation/ | 2023-04-08T12:32:43 | 2024-01-23T07:47:50 | 2024-01-23T07:47:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dessk6nUnutziYhYWDVQ | Samsung phone with Segment Anything by 2023 end? | Doesn't have to be exact. There's a bit of wiggle room cuz of how implementations play out.
https://ai.facebook.com/blog/segment-anything-foundation-model-image-segmentation/ | 2023-04-08T12:32:25 | 2023-12-31T10:29:00 | 2023-12-31T11:22:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G5o8Mc5vAu5PRlugZyw4 | 2023 FIDE World Chess Championship. Will Nepomniachtchi win in Nepomniachtchi vs. Liren? | Resolution source. https://worldchampionshipcycle.fide.com/ | 2023-04-08T10:38:12 | 2023-04-30T09:49:51 | 2023-04-30T09:49:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gVtC0ruGPiCX4wvb6RqF | Will Donald Trump attend Jimmy Carter's state funeral? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-08T10:18:26 | 2025-01-09T07:50:12 | 2025-01-09T07:50:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EdiuUX0X1j8UjDwaW7BF | Will Rational Animations reach 200k subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | https://www.youtube.com/RationalAnimations
200k = 200000 | 2023-04-08T06:54:24 | 2023-12-09T05:32:19 | 2023-12-09T05:32:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rE7CqKit7PnvpU7qQogv | Will bitcoin be at least $28000 on Friday 4/21 | 11:59pm PST, based on coinmarketcap average price. | 2023-04-08T00:03:55 | 2023-04-21T23:59:00 | 2023-04-22T00:00:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FR6H5h5o8zkrzaWhGU19 | Will the conflicting federal rulings on mifepristone's availability result in a Supreme Court case by December 31, 2024? | In April 2023, two conflicting federal rulings were issued in relation to the availability of mifepristone, an abortion pill, in the United States. A federal judge in Texas invalidated the FDA's 23-year-old approval of mifepristone, while a judge in Washington state issued a ruling that contradicted the Texas decision ... | 2023-04-07T19:05:49 | 2024-06-13T20:03:53 | 2024-06-13T20:03:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LIdcPB8N9OgXzVbJv5cJ | Will it be possible to like most Tweets linking to Substack on 5/1/2023? | It seems currently not to be possible. Will this be reversed on May 1? If one cannot both post to substack and link to such new posts on May 1 this resolves to NO, otherwise YES. | 2023-04-07T11:15:35 | 2023-05-01T16:59:00 | 2023-05-01T17:10:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6lGCX9X22Inq8K64DMXg | Will Destiny's video "Destiny Gets Put On The Spot With Tough 9/11 Question" reach 30k views by 4/13 9 A.M. PST? | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/cM3Q7RsELRg)If possible, post a screenshot of the viewcount. Otherwise, I will use the current viewcount number that I see when I resolve the market.
I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if the number of traders is too low. | 2023-04-07T10:55:28 | 2023-04-13T13:58:37 | 2023-04-13T13:58:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Y4UL3kg1vn7EcUdhKwX | Will Premier League teams win at least 2 of the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League this year? | Apr 16, 9:04am: Will Premier League teams win 2 of the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League this year? → Will Premier League teams win at least 2 of the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League this year? | 2023-04-07T07:30:41 | 2023-06-10T15:47:32 | 2023-06-10T15:47:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-q8SJ37mxqvwdDGKnd5QK | Will Jimmy Carter outlive the current Pope? | Apr 7, 9:49am: Will Jimmy Cater outlive the current Pope? → Will Jimmy Carter outlive the current Pope? | 2023-04-07T06:48:42 | 2024-12-29T13:23:49 | 2024-12-29T13:23:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R1ZK8z515lp9BZNzWQfP | If Erdogan is re-elected, will Sweden join NATO by July? | If Erdogan is not re-elected by the close date, this resolves N/A no matter if Sweden joins NATO.
Resolves YES if Sweden has officially joined NATO before July 1, 2023. For Finland that was April 4. Just an announcement or joining on July 1 is not sufficient.
See also the sibling market:
(https://manifold.markets/e... | 2023-04-07T05:35:28 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-07-01T02:03:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fP3RJOO2jOcS9VvjCgYk | Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2024? | English Wikipedia, mainspace. If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count. | 2023-04-07T05:06:43 | 2024-01-01T13:59:00 | 2024-01-01T18:44:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iij39Hq1vqhj7aXnupc6 | Will Destiny make IRL content with Aba in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-07T03:55:42 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T18:41:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zlYaQ0nmIJirpNy2PAGY | Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-07T02:56:05 | 2024-01-01T12:35:02 | 2024-01-01T12:35:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-knsvLDKWN6stP3uS5PG6 | Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-07T02:51:27 | 2024-01-01T12:35:46 | 2024-01-01T12:35:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5zWXFcOK2HZR6GZoUeT3 | Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-07T02:48:29 | 2024-01-01T12:36:46 | 2024-01-01T12:36:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BZ1KsOdvlK3nHV8CD1GU | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee in 2024? | If Kamala Harris is chosen at the 2024 Democratic National Convention as the party's nominee for vice president for the 2024 United States election, this market will resolve to YES.
If she is not chosen, this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-04-06T23:49:37 | 2024-08-06T08:13:21 | 2024-08-06T08:13:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gLUMkDWZIS3oULRH1kmo | Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024? | Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
[image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval... | 2023-04-06T23:29:48 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:01:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-csBu1DLVXbXiGQMWge0m | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-06T23:23:36 | 2024-08-06T07:51:33 | 2024-08-06T07:51:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KqdLyWAOwtC13OtrRRep | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win at least one state in the Democratic primaries? | Resolves YES if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on th... | 2023-04-06T23:19:55 | 2024-07-04T13:11:07 | 2024-07-04T13:11:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QG5oXYuh0uqzD9ba1ZM6 | Will Sneako refer to Destiny as being "a bot" in a live conversation before June 1st, 2023? | Must be livestreamed by Destiny on Rumble, YouTube or Kick. The market will resolve 'yes' if Sneako uses the term "bot" in reference to Destiny or verbally agrees with someone else using the term in reference to Destiny. | 2023-04-06T21:34:03 | 2023-05-31T06:59:00 | 2023-05-31T23:52:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VhqFBATzcN6QDrucUmvf | Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2024? | This market resolves YES, if:
A member of the Forbes 30 under 30 lists is arrested and charged with fraud
This happens after the date this market was opened
The member had not previously been arrested and charged with fraud before
It is not yet 2024 | 2023-04-06T20:06:01 | 2023-06-09T13:16:13 | 2023-06-09T13:16:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vReEqErhTji5snjS0it1 | Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2025? | This market resolves YES, if:
A member of the Forbes 30 under 30 lists is arrested and charged with fraud
This happens after the date this market was opened
The member had not previously been arrested and charged with fraud before
It is not yet 2025
EDIT: Wow, thanks Ryan Petersen!:
https://twitter.com/typesfast/s... | 2023-04-06T19:03:05 | 2023-06-09T13:17:14 | 2023-06-09T13:17:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0MLCghfWmBL2Ug17brmo | Will anyone run for political office with the promise of outsourcing all their decision-making to an AI before 2025? | Will anyone, anywhere in the world, run for any elected office with the explicit promise of outsourcing their official decisions to any kind of AI software? | 2023-04-06T16:55:56 | 2023-06-07T19:57:45 | 2023-06-07T19:57:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GYqXBNPSHXH1mN46kBPE | Will Alabama win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship? | Resolves true if Alabama wins the 2024 national championship in college football. | 2023-04-06T15:58:58 | 2024-01-01T20:29:55 | 2024-01-01T20:29:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X7xFLqgj9mNaAGZXmNEm | Will the iPhone 16 have a 5G modem not designed by Qualcomm? | If the iPhone 16 has the modem not designed by Qualcomm (likely the Apple designed modem), this market resolves to YES.
Apr 18, 10:06am: Will the iPhone 16 have a 5G designed not designed by Qualcomm? → Will the iPhone 16 have a 5G modem not designed by Qualcomm? | 2023-04-06T13:43:43 | 2024-10-03T08:45:10 | 2024-10-03T08:45:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3Zqi0jQz8M2hG7QL1bc0 | In 2023, an LLM outperforms regex at extracting substrings from given string? | From an execution speed perspective, if the LLM produces correct output.
Provide any examples you think are relevant. For now I'm thinking of testing with gpt-4 and Claude and some LLaMa implementation. Public experiment to see if and how well LLMs outperform regex functions in extracting from text. Can I just say, "g... | 2023-04-06T13:31:38 | 2023-12-31T10:29:00 | 2023-12-31T11:22:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ggk8EtxilVwPUWTa8AFn | Will @DwarkeshPatel's podcast with Eliezer Yudkowsky break 100k views on YouTube before May? | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/41SUp-TRVlg) | 2023-04-06T11:13:20 | 2023-05-02T21:40:34 | 2023-05-02T21:40:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RO9CiEr6EmwXyatg93No | Will the US dollar be worth 100 Russian roubles before the end of 2023? | According to Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR | 2023-04-06T08:51:06 | 2023-08-15T09:36:32 | 2023-08-15T09:36:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ro5JR0CU2HDxIJxThFsj | Will Ding Liren be the World Chess Champion 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-06T04:59:22 | 2023-04-30T11:29:00 | 2023-04-30T12:07:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PH8CcBXnoEiggZgwgyRJ | Will the Wisconsin Assembly impeach newly elected Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Protasiewicz in 2023? (M$1000 subsidy) | Resolves YES if the Wisconsin Assembly impeaches Janet Protasiewicz, the newly elected Wisconsin Supreme Court justice, in 2023. Otherwise NO.
This question does not require the state Senate to vote to remove.
Impeachment requires a majority vote in the Assembly and removal requires a 2/3 supermajority vote in the st... | 2023-04-05T19:48:38 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:09:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jbRuvzPiqG3QXnBQ1XAV | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on April 17th, 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt copied from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel ... | 2023-04-05T18:28:57 | 2023-04-17T05:40:32 | 2023-04-17T05:40:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OJQraXLNbUkYbqzTZ9yE | IF the Patriots don't make the playoffs in the 2023 NFL season, Bill Belichick will not be the head coach in 2024. | Resolves NA if they make the playoffs | 2023-04-05T16:54:31 | 2024-01-11T15:56:00 | 2024-01-11T15:56:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7GibVQQeWdmD0RyhTlAX | Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31, 2024? | The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Iran, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/iran/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. | 2023-04-05T12:45:10 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-04T02:44:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MH4Xgx3UK4NBAbYtlIEx | Will a UK General Election be held during Q4 2024? | Will a UK General Election be held with a polling date between 1st October and 31st December 2024? | 2023-04-05T12:04:14 | 2024-12-10T22:52:34 | 2024-12-10T22:52:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Oi2CEVGCFdd8oBmMY7iq | Will a UK General Election be held during Q3 2024? | Will a UK General Election be held with a polling date between 1st July and 30th September 2024? | 2023-04-05T11:59:32 | 2024-05-31T07:11:52 | 2024-05-31T07:11:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jlQuoI7fRWIpHdw6JNlY | Will a UK General Election be held during Q2 2024? | Will a UK General Election be held with a polling date between 1st April and 30th June 2024? | 2023-04-05T11:56:16 | 2024-05-22T09:27:35 | 2024-05-22T09:27:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NZGn7L8Q5zY6MRDOQEKY | Will there be a fully self-sustaining Auto-GPT agent in 2023? | Context:
https://twitter.com/SigGravitas/status/1641437094043332614
https://github.com/Torantulino/Auto-GPT
The Github repo says:
This program, driven by GPT-4, autonomously develops and manages businesses to increase net worth.
I don't think this is the case right now - if anything, the model is spending down its... | 2023-04-05T11:44:21 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:08:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8XU0YiC5Sxj4TZMNZ1KX | Will Humza Yousaf remain First Minister of Scotland longer than Rishi Sunak remains Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | Resolves YES if Sunak leaves office before Yousaf. Resolves NO otherwise. Leaving office on the same day will be N/A. Date of resignation taking effect is relevant; announcement of resignation (to take effect later) is not. | 2023-04-05T10:47:07 | 2024-05-29T11:48:56 | 2024-05-29T11:48:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FcRHGUXF8fxMkZUROtdo | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets) | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15721/denver-nuggets/ | 2023-04-05T10:08:30 | 2023-06-18T21:00:00 | 2023-06-19T04:59:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DdpRHQrL4BzhCwdKBgtr | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics) | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15717/boston-celtics/ | 2023-04-05T10:08:27 | 2023-06-07T18:26:57 | 2023-06-07T18:26:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YFc4fxF4paTLXRFsuRrM | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights) | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15733/vegas-golden-knights/ | 2023-04-05T10:06:42 | 2023-06-18T21:00:00 | 2023-06-19T04:59:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OWkM9xZioIKKeG5RZjlX | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers) | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15773/florida-panthers/ | 2023-04-05T10:06:38 | 2023-06-15T13:09:53 | 2023-06-15T13:09:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Vtm5lkx0dsg69vf8Nzyh | Will the US or EU do something that will meaningfully slow AI development worldwide in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-05T10:04:30 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-15T16:17:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6glwMYCAcUNMZekfksk5 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024? | including tests | 2023-04-05T06:11:15 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:50:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7C4YcTolN9cPNx1J7z9b | Will Newcastle United finish the 22-23 season ABOVE Manchester United in the premier league table? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-05T03:06:41 | 2023-05-28T11:12:46 | 2023-05-28T11:12:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m9IKQeuL6KrL5nVsYjSH | Will there be a terrorist attack involving "kamikaze" drones in the United States in 2023? | Apr 5, 7:42am: Will there be a terrorist attack involving "kamikaze" drones in the United Stated in 2023? → Will there be a terrorist attack involving "kamikaze" drones in the United States in 2023? | 2023-04-05T02:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:40:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JmSCVSKOvbT3xGwttF0q | Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare the COVID-19 pandemic officially over by the end of 2023? | The current Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, believes that COVID-19 will no longer be a major international concern by the end of this year.
The criteria for this to resolve as yes is that the World Health Organization officially declares the COVID-19 pandemic to be over. | 2023-04-04T21:16:30 | 2023-05-15T17:07:52 | 2023-05-15T17:07:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6Ywsdb2gA971LLKA691z | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15765/ukraine-controls-by-7123/
Armiansk is a town in northern Crimea. It has been under Russian control since 2014 when Russia seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula.
Ukraine, preparing for a likely spring counteroffensive, would like to retake Crimea, which could be a "red lin... | 2023-04-04T20:50:49 | 2023-06-30T11:00:00 | 2023-07-01T05:02:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TYOc75frKzpoSLjK7Xyj | Will The US be at at war with another country by the end of 2024? | The Criteria for this market to resolve yes would be:
The USA is involved in some kind of combat with one or more foreign powers. (eg China, Russia Etc.)
AND
a high ranking politician (eg president, VP etc) openly comments on and acknowledges an open conflict | 2023-04-04T20:30:20 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T16:33:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AVP4detHFcYS3uDljJED | Will Donald Trump be sentenced to prison by November 4, 2024? | This market resolves YES if
(1) Donald Trump is sentenced to a prison term on or before November 4, 2024 (the prison term may begin after November 4, 2024); AND
(2) He serves at least one day in prison by December 31, 2025. | 2023-04-04T18:40:47 | 2024-11-03T15:59:00 | 2024-11-06T14:36:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rldStS7vtyaZoB2gGKFD | Will Newcastle United defeat Brentford on April 8th 2023? | Yes = Newcastle United Win
No = Draw, or Brentford Win | 2023-04-04T17:51:28 | 2023-04-08T09:00:00 | 2023-04-08T09:16:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7WoyFd4fZA9uJZMDrBkw | Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 725k subscribers by the end of August? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-04T17:16:11 | 2023-08-31T23:59:00 | 2023-09-06T19:40:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LqpGRj7kY8Koeh4gbEhC | Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 700k subscribers by the end of June? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-04T17:13:14 | 2023-07-01T19:38:59 | 2023-07-01T19:38:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U5JjqO17hbcyIOq43xL4 | Will Destiny's YouTube channel reach 700k subscribers by the end of July? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
[markets] | 2023-04-04T17:09:19 | 2023-07-31T23:59:00 | 2023-08-01T11:31:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n1wGivgUEEjCENUaRE4i | Will Destiny publish two different manifestos in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-04T16:23:01 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:18:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XJRVOVAPhjBTHhlIrFME | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the Republican party's vice presidential nominee in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-04T15:26:30 | 2024-07-15T17:00:09 | 2024-07-15T17:00:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nNOGJ0hiPSh1yiI6uem1 | Will Germany ban ChatGPT? | Inspired by this news story.
Resolves YES if Germany bans ChatGPT similar to Italy before December. An EU-wide ban is sufficient as well.
The ban needs to be active at close. A mere announcement is not sufficient and would resolve NO.
It must be banned in all of Germany. A federal state ban is not sufficient. | 2023-04-04T14:36:32 | 2023-11-30T14:59:00 | 2023-11-30T22:06:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
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