Datasets:
collingray
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forecasting

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mani-2RMxiT2LrvaPUt9orPt6
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) gross more than $600 million domestically before 2024?
The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/ If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $600 million, this market will resolve to "YES" This market will resolve to "NO" if once the December 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized it hasn't reached $600 million, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point.
2023-04-04T13:26:54
2024-01-01T05:14:54
2024-01-01T05:14:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DuptY9J28bn5jqM4SWRI
Will Adam Schiff win the 2024 senate seat in California?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T12:06:10
2024-12-03T11:14:35
2024-12-03T11:14:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-52zFyJXI3awjsYuVvZjT
Is an AI creation going to be a cover of TIME magazine in 2023?
Resolves YES if the cover is AI created, not if it's a feature as a part of the cover.
2023-04-04T11:52:28
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2023-12-31T15:33:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-81K9lraMfK7bL7buD0bB
Will Joe Manchin win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in West Virginia?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:52:11
2024-06-26T21:17:41
2024-06-26T21:17:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DqyxfMlgmulh3WVXJ6Qe
Will Bernie Sanders win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Vermont?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:51:06
2024-11-10T18:07:04
2024-11-10T18:07:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zB9ETo4JZivW43prsh6K
Will Mitt Romney win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Utah?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:50:48
2024-11-10T18:06:28
2024-11-10T18:06:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QQLtxDEadnJcSd64405e
Will Ted Cruz win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Texas?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:50:33
2024-11-06T08:59:41
2024-11-06T08:59:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Lq2bZuS3f5W6I7t3IxMb
Will Sherrod Brown win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Ohio?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:49:05
2024-11-06T02:01:29
2024-11-06T02:01:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1BQviPnTiJiNPbABOkCG
Will Bob Menendez win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in New Jersey?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:47:35
2024-08-23T21:42:13
2024-08-23T21:42:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1LIFz8MJLlRY4U5y7RWF
Will Jon Tester win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Montana?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:46:40
2024-11-08T11:17:31
2024-11-08T11:17:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tmbD79f2mQYkVKvLxHtl
Will Kyrsten Sinema win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Arizona?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:39:29
2024-11-08T11:11:38
2024-11-08T11:11:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bKyfFpT0e9k8wpVbI2Cp
Will Newcastle United defeat West Ham United on April 5th 2023?
Yes = Newcastle United Win No = Draw, or West Ham Win
2023-04-04T11:37:46
2023-04-05T13:56:33
2023-04-05T13:56:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SFiHkLuJtA98it878zpr
Will the Republican VP nominee 2024 be a woman?
This will resolve based on gender self-identification after the Republican National Convention elects its candidate for Vice-President in the 2024 US presidential election.
2023-04-04T11:18:36
2024-07-15T18:41:28
2024-07-15T18:41:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2JmJh4eL6a3MzgH4y7Kk
Will Destiny play Factorio on stream in April?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T11:11:39
2023-04-30T16:59:00
2023-05-01T03:16:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dFRP2ZxTaNjQBdGSfDm7
Will the NDP win the next election in the Canadian province of British Columbia (BC)?
British Columbia's next general election is set for 19 October 2024, though it may be called earlier. The NDP won the previous election in 2020, obtaining 57 out of 87 seats with 48% of the vote and thus forming a majority government. If no party obtains an outright majority, this market will resolve by which party leads either a minority or coalition government after post-election coalition talks. Related: [markets]
2023-04-04T10:07:42
2024-10-29T14:40:45
2024-10-29T14:40:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1FPze4mPjDuyumKKPWPh
Will the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 win any states that voted for Biden in 2020?
Resolves to YES if the Republican candidate in the 2024 US presidential election wins any state that voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Congressional districts that award electoral votes (e.g. Nebraska's second congressional district) do not count. Faithless electors do not count, only the actual votes. If there is a dispute as to the results of the election I will follow reliable sources.
2023-04-04T09:33:06
2024-11-07T09:47:51
2024-11-07T09:47:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kMVWTaRdG01MCAgzIvof
Will the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024 win any states that voted for Trump in 2020?
Resolves to YES if the Democratic candidate in the 2024 US presidential election wins any state that voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Congressional districts that award electoral votes (e.g. Maine's second congressional district) do not count. Faithless electors do not count, only the actual votes. If there is a dispute as to the results of the election I will follow reliable sources.
2023-04-04T09:33:05
2024-11-10T00:46:44
2024-11-10T00:46:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FsLn7thKzXJ0PqBj1abt
Will Trump be convicted?
Of a crime.
2023-04-04T08:49:18
2024-05-31T06:20:27
2024-05-31T06:20:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MRR81jhmQP47E68zG6Cz
Will the Seattle Seahawks make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:48:30
2024-01-07T16:12:57
2024-01-07T16:13:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ypzwM9Gz6mi6LCY2AssK
Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:47:25
2024-01-07T12:41:23
2024-01-07T12:41:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kxKBDCwiv1FFtt7IYQBz
Will the New Orleans Saints make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:46:49
2024-01-07T16:12:55
2024-01-07T16:13:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KNGWxAyyhrnNQVGkzLJd
Will the Green Bay Packers make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:44:37
2024-01-07T16:12:52
2024-01-07T16:13:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XLvFmF7ayOxSCLhvlDYS
Will the Minnesota Vikings make the 2024 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:43:37
2024-01-07T13:05:01
2024-01-07T13:05:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qMTCUfHTboIlGmcVlwWG
Will the Denver Broncos make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:38:28
2023-12-31T16:24:52
2023-12-31T16:26:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PhESWkWldfgv7UFN8axk
Will the Houston Texans make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:35:53
2024-01-06T20:21:47
2024-01-06T20:21:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Eq37ej9gVYjPP2Pgiapn
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:33:46
2024-01-07T12:58:20
2024-01-07T12:59:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wYiBb6UUPIs5PejrTeMB
Will the Cleveland Browns make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:33:08
2023-12-28T20:22:34
2023-12-28T20:22:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-C1y8fYEc2HHdmj1TH5Oj
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:32:39
2024-01-07T12:58:45
2024-01-07T13:00:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tsfSrsVsPKlKI5jh96vG
Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2024 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:32:01
2023-12-17T20:26:24
2023-12-17T20:28:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RM91tjPyMQAlnkJGeITK
Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:30:55
2023-12-31T16:25:52
2023-12-31T16:26:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HYBY1urjK1T8YeqLbCHU
Will the Miami Dolphins make the 2024 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:28:41
2023-12-24T16:27:18
2023-12-24T16:27:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TaRTZYjNP38m12Pt2Yrd
Will the Buffalo Bills make the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T08:28:00
2024-01-07T12:58:40
2024-01-07T12:59:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-foARpgjyo1Pbcehmkxsz
Will Donald Trump propose a solution for the existential threat of AI by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T07:48:53
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T23:55:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VwDLDJSLUkoAzFHJStfO
Will Destiny and xQc talk on stream before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T07:06:55
2023-07-27T11:21:27
2023-07-27T11:21:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-g0e3TTUCl4Z9a3Xeun3W
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by May 1?
including tests
2023-04-04T05:29:20
2023-04-30T21:59:00
2023-05-01T12:10:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Hj7VlI9xZLfEEh8oBybF
Will Destiny buy a new car before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-04T02:37:00
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T13:11:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0dVQWOtQ7WkFHk3VWK5l
Donald Trump will halt his 2024 presidential candidacy
YES: if trump does not end up in a republican or any party ballot. NO: Trump's name appears in a ballot.
2023-04-04T01:56:27
2024-11-06T00:27:04
2024-11-06T00:27:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1oRIfSLRe8WwyUJ52tul
Will an official episode the Destiny and Dan podcast be released before 2024?
If one official episode of the podcast Destiny and Dan have been talking about comes out before 2024 resole yes if no official episode comes out resolve no.
2023-04-04T01:23:28
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-05T18:22:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zILaZK8GFwptgARBuQ9C
Will any US state change their flag in a manner consistent with the suggestions in CGP Grey's video before 2030?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4w6808wJcU I'll count any accepted change, even if it doesn't go into effect until after 2030.
2023-04-04T00:30:30
2024-05-24T08:29:49
2024-05-24T08:29:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-V3GSgPnGuQRve81oNz0q
Will Lewis Hamilton finish the 2023 Formula One World Championship at a position higher than George Russell?
https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2023/drivers.html
2023-04-04T00:08:43
2023-11-25T15:59:00
2023-11-26T00:32:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6tLUDc10rDTjCHsoeAW2
Will Leafy come on Destiny's stream before May?
https://twitter.com/LeafyIsHere The market will be resolved YES if Leafy talks to Destiny on stream before May, will otherwise be resolved NO by 05/01 [image]
2023-04-03T23:30:51
2023-04-30T15:00:00
2023-05-02T13:21:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SOKfLHRfK9jkLOI9uGd2
Will Destiny have a studio set up by the end of 2023?
[markets]
2023-04-03T22:34:38
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-10T17:39:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-x5e1fpQtqY0NZfyNtTHv
Will US inflation be above 5.0% in April 2023?
Resolves YES if CPI-U is above 303.564 in the April 2023 release (to be released May 10th)
2023-04-03T19:00:44
2023-05-10T05:32:31
2023-05-10T05:32:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0pu30X5E1CtRikrkUiqQ
Will Walmart buy Tiktok by the end of 2024?
Self-describing. Even if it's only the U.S. operations or a joint venture where walmart owns more than 40%. I may bet on this market.
2023-04-03T18:48:06
2025-01-01T18:59:00
2025-01-01T20:21:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cTH4tY46Kej3GhuSoNSJ
Will The US be at at war with another country by the end of 2023?
The Criteria for this market to resolve yes would be: The USA is involved in some kind of combat with one or more foreign powers. (eg China, Russia Etc.) AND a high ranking politician (eg president, VP etc) openly comments on and acknowledges an open conflict.
2023-04-03T18:40:23
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T12:19:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4yTI3KY789epKk8FjAF1
Will Vivek Ramaswamy suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast?
In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki. In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 15th of January, 2024. If Vivek Ramaswamy suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-04-03T17:10:50
2024-01-15T15:50:06
2024-01-15T15:50:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-s0SX1eOI6ZF6zUSwQq2f
Will CGP Grey release another flag video before 2024?
Resolves YES if a main channel video is posted featuring the word 'flag(s)' or the specified name of a flag in the title before 2024.
2023-04-03T16:40:38
2023-12-14T16:43:07
2023-12-14T16:43:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uOxiS5GldcASTi3xacgU
Will Joe Biden say the word “peanut” while giving Jimmy Carter’s Eulogy?
If Joe Biden says the word "peanut" or "peanuts" while giving Jimmy Carter's Eulogy this market resolves as yes. If Joe Biden does not say "peanut" or "peanuts" or if Joe Biden does not deliver the eulogy, the market resolves as no
2023-04-03T16:04:27
2025-01-11T05:50:05
2025-01-11T05:50:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cPDDBZX1NCBRhJOPBTZh
Will ChatGPT have a level of "fact-checking" by the end of 2023?
Will be resolved via if an article that talks about it coming with a level of checking its sources before continuing, and an actually sufficient level of "fact-checking" is released (enough so that it can fix basic logical errors in its own work without being told to do so explicitly by the user). A model option only available on ChatGPT+ would resolve this as Yes, but a plugin would not be enough to resolve this as it's not built-in.
2023-04-03T14:25:14
2023-12-31T23:07:46
2023-12-31T23:07:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BPsMwDyloxKO8M0PYDFn
Will the Twitter Bird Return by 2024?
Resolves yes if the classic blue Twitter bird returns as the main icon on twitter.com and is used consistently for 6 months or more after April 3, 2023 and before July 1, 2024.
2023-04-03T13:33:40
2024-01-27T02:12:48
2024-01-27T02:12:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y1BEviQVerQBRhaRuoxg
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong be released in 2023
Yes = Game officially releases by the end of 2023 on any of the platforms No = Anything else
2023-04-03T12:19:36
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2024-01-03T05:25:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hHEOhBwM52sZM1SsNoaD
Will Trump be convicted of at least one of the NY charges?
Trump was indicted on March 30, 2023 by a New York City grand jury for his alleged role in a scandal stemming from hush money payments made to the pornographic film actress Stormy Daniels. He faces 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. Resolves yes if he is found guilty on at least one of the charges. Resolves no if all charges are dropped or he is found not guilty.
2023-04-03T10:50:30
2024-05-30T14:16:35
2024-05-30T14:16:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZjgwDAeD5WGma3IIaUsO
Will Finland retain its position as the happiest country in the World Happiness Report 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-03T08:01:22
2024-03-20T18:31:58
2024-03-20T18:31:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ctzpPa9KN7JWYTg2EPQE
Will Trump be indicted at least 3x?
Multiple cases
2023-04-03T07:56:04
2023-08-03T08:29:00
2023-08-03T08:29:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CTQCTcTvjigczwotykhR
Will S&P 500 increase in April 2023?
The S&P closed at 4076.60 in January, 3970.15 in February, and 4109.31 in March. Will it increase from open on 2023-04-03 (4102.20) to close on 2023-04-28 (4169.48)? Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
2023-04-03T07:51:56
2023-05-01T17:39:21
2023-05-01T17:39:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Rd0fWmDFVUdn9jdEwHDb
Will SpaceX manage to stick all the booster landings during the next Falcon Heavy launch?
It will be resolved after the next Falcon Heavy launch Resolved 'Yes' if all the booster landing attempts during the next Falcon Heavy launch are successful, meaning we have landing confirmed callouts during the official webcast and/or we have footage of boosters standing on the landing pads and no explosion is seen until the webcast ends. Otherwise, it will get resolved "no". The upcoming launch of FH https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch/falcon-heavy-jupiter-3/ The launch might be postponed, in which case I will extend the market. Intentionally expended boosters do not count. Launch abort does not count.
2023-04-03T07:39:06
2023-07-29T02:48:25
2023-07-29T02:48:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XUWb7kPXEz4TJ5Lay5jA
(M100 subsidy!) Will OpenAI release a mobile app? (2023)
Has to be publicly available both on iOS and Android. Apr 3, 3:14pm: Will OpenAI release a mobile app in 2023? → (M100 subsidy!) Will OpenAI release a mobile app? (2023)
2023-04-03T04:54:08
2023-07-25T12:24:24
2023-07-25T12:24:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PBDFMLI0qd8X1Y6YP3AX
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1?
including tests
2023-04-03T01:37:24
2023-09-30T21:59:00
2023-10-04T16:27:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kZUek4UqqrnQaUsEsAy8
Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views in 2024?
Based on the number on this page: https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/about crossing 1 billion after 2023 but before 2025.
2023-04-03T01:15:36
2024-04-28T14:52:26
2024-04-28T14:52:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Ohz2eyDofQq3eCK44oBa
Will Ukraine be promised or provided ATACMS before August 2023?
Resolves YES immediately if before the closing date, there is a credible official statement or mainstream news reports that Ukraine’s military (including aligned paramilitary forces) will receive or has received ATACMS missiles for ongoing war purposes. Resolves NO otherwise. OSINT reports may serve as proof, but they need to be self-evident and non-controversial. As a rule of thumb, they should be credible enough to be uncritically cited by Reuters as more than rumors, making this caveat mostly redundant. Statements and offers conditional on the war ending – that would only come into effect after it ends – don’t count. If the war does actually definitely end before August, and only then missiles are promised or given, it also doesn’t count.
2023-04-03T00:57:40
2023-07-31T14:59:00
2023-08-01T00:42:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-co1TywZXikIQcuJOvXqh
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2024?
Same as this market, but for AI that gets gold on the 2023 or 2024 IMO.
2023-04-02T20:54:58
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T06:28:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0aFs80YYTNu8ylRx3nBJ
Will Destiny's video "Doxx Drama And Lefty Students Wanting To Attack Destiny" reach 100k views by 4/09 9 A.M. PST?
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/RHiRQTDjHkk)If possible, post a screenshot of the viewcount. Otherwise, I will use the current viewcount number that I see when I resolve the market. I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if the number of traders is too low.
2023-04-02T19:38:26
2023-04-09T15:41:19
2023-04-09T15:41:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Avs7meEscykjeFpuQaaG
Will CGP Grey upload 10 or more videos in 2023?
For the purposes of this market: Unlisted videos do not count. Members only videos do not count. Youtube Live Livestream VODs do not count. Shorts do not count. Private videos do not count. If a video is deleted/privated after initially being public it stops counting towards the total at that point. Only publicly released videos on the main channel count. If at any point in 2023 there are 10 uploaded videos on the CGP Grey main youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos) that were first uploaded/published in 2023, then this market will resolve to YES. If 2023 passes and this has not happened, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-04-02T17:27:30
2024-01-01T05:24:20
2024-01-01T05:24:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f7sgN4fuDCo7AXRlIIOX
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-02T17:01:50
2024-01-19T14:45:58
2024-01-19T14:45:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CQLajLPNZoseT63n0Dfm
Will CGP Grey abandon manifold markets before the end of 2024?
Manifold markets has seemed to attracted the attention of CGP Grey a popular YouTuber, by the end of 2024 will CGP Grey stop using the service? if there is 6 months straight of no engagement during the year OR no engagement for 3 months straight the at the end of 2024.
2023-04-02T17:01:11
2023-10-09T08:38:57
2023-10-09T08:38:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HNeB8WXqZzJRLiU6JNSe
Will Mr. Girl release another article about Destiny in 2023? A second manifesto, if you will. The Destiny Report Part 2.
[markets]
2023-04-02T16:37:37
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-07T23:49:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QohWYvaPKwAY61bfsakb
Will Newcastle United Finish 4th in the 2022–23 Premier League Season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-02T15:12:47
2023-05-28T11:13:52
2023-05-28T11:13:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-87bBtdR4C8tIPMWE2H4z
Will CGP Grey upload 9 or more videos in 2023?
For the purposes of this market: Unlisted videos do not count. Members only videos do not count. Youtube Live Livestream VODs do not count. Shorts do not count. Private videos do not count. If a video is deleted/privated after initially being public it stops counting towards the total at that point. Only publicly released videos on the main channel count. If at any point in 2023 there are 9 uploaded videos on the CGP Grey main youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos) that were first uploaded/published in 2023, then this market will resolve to YES. If 2023 passes and this has not happened, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-04-02T14:29:56
2023-12-23T14:36:38
2023-12-23T14:36:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Dtb0BJAj6s8LWL2ZVVsa
Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033
Resolves YES if there is public knowledge of the existence of a LLM known as GPT-4.5 by OpenAI.
2023-04-02T14:29:38
2025-02-12T16:39:26
2025-02-12T16:39:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4v8vKax4JrbrtpsG1xKO
Will CGP Grey upload 8 or more videos in 2023?
For the purposes of this market: Unlisted videos do not count. Members only videos do not count. Youtube Live Livestream VODs do not count. Shorts do not count. Private videos do not count. If a video is deleted/privated after initially being public it stops counting towards the total at that point. Only publicly released videos on the main channel count. If at any point in 2023 there are 8 uploaded videos on the CGP Grey main youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos) that were first uploaded/published in 2023, then this market will resolve to YES. If 2023 passes and this has not happened, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-04-02T14:28:37
2023-12-14T15:23:04
2023-12-14T15:23:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ISoG3LZqV6iauyYDYiIO
Will CGP Grey upload 7 or more videos in 2023?
For the purposes of this market: Unlisted videos do not count. Members only videos do not count. Youtube Live Livestream VODs do not count. Shorts do not count. Private videos do not count. If a video is deleted/privated after initially being public it stops counting towards the total at that point. Only publicly released videos on the main channel count. If at any point in 2023 there are 7 uploaded videos on the CGP Grey main youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos) that were first uploaded/published in 2023, then this market will resolve to YES. If 2023 passes and this has not happened, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-04-02T14:26:09
2023-12-05T23:03:20
2023-12-05T23:03:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lXZXjtIjvBamEP95BcTT
Will CGP Grey upload 6 or more videos in 2023?
For the purposes of this market: Unlisted videos do not count. Members only videos do not count. Youtube Live Livestream VODs do not count. Shorts do not count. Private videos do not count. If a video is deleted/privated after initially being public it stops counting towards the total at that point. Only publicly released videos on the main channel count. If at any point in 2023 there are 6 uploaded videos on the CGP Grey main youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos) that were first uploaded/published in 2023, then this market will resolve to YES. If 2023 passes and this has not happened, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-04-02T14:24:57
2023-11-13T11:46:52
2023-11-13T11:46:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HyAf6xR4EeJzVau70Bt5
Will CGP Grey upload 5 or more videos in 2023?
For the purposes of this market: Unlisted videos do not count. Members only videos do not count. Youtube Live Livestream VODs do not count. Shorts do not count. Private videos do not count. If a video is deleted/privated after initially being public it stops counting towards the total at that point. Only publicly released videos on the main channel count. If at any point in 2023 there are 5 uploaded videos on the CGP Grey main youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos) that were first uploaded/published in 2023, then this market will resolve to YES. If 2023 passes and this has not happened, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-04-02T14:22:36
2023-10-19T13:58:26
2023-10-19T13:58:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ARz4i6527nZIChr1hG7i
Will Destiny talk to Anastasiya aka. Ukrainian Ana again in April?
https://twitter.com/UkrainianAna
2023-04-02T13:24:06
2023-05-01T03:43:25
2023-05-01T03:43:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4yQAZjCKzPHlDZ1m6Cev
Will total crypto market cap be above $1.2T on june 20th, according to coinmarketcap?
At some random time on june 20th I will look up the number on coinmarketcap.com , and resolve the market accordingly. #Crypto
2023-04-02T12:53:38
2023-06-20T10:13:11
2023-06-20T10:13:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-feGPh8QmDVaqPlR7DHx1
Will a robot that employs an AI that combines an LLM and a knowledge model be publicly available before January 1, 2024?
Large language models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, GPT-4, and (the Bard interface to) LaMDA, have made the news in recent months. While the capabilities of LLMs are extraordinary, they will likely be even more extraordinary when combined with a knowledge model. We are seeing the first such combinations with plugins for GPT-4. The robotics field has been making extraordinary advances as well, and LLMs have been demonstrated in combination with robots. Here are two examples: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUszJyS3d7A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgT8tPChbqc&t=26s This question will resolve to "yes" if a robot is made publicly available that employs at least an LLM combined with a knowledge model. This question will resolve to "yes" if other capabilities are included as well. A robot will be considered to be "publicly available" if any members of the general public, without special connections to AI, are able to access this AI, openly, through a waitlist or otherwise. Access may be free or may cost money. A robot will be considered publicly available if members of the public can visit with, borrow, rent or buy such a robot. The question will resolve to "yes" if such a robot is physically available to the general public before January 1, 2024, and to "no" otherwise; for example, if members of the public are able to place an order for such a robot before January 1, 2024 but no such robot is physically available before January 1, 2024, then the question will resolve to "no."
2023-04-02T10:55:25
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-10T01:59:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vNJuBz0NeMavwazOu5ds
Will Chelsea beat Liverpool in the Premier League?
Resolves YES if Chelsea wins against Liverpool in their Premier League match on 04.04.2023. Resolves NO if Liverpool wins or the match ends in a draw.
2023-04-02T10:46:14
2023-04-04T13:55:53
2023-04-04T13:55:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DoT29BLEAKKdDDOVf1ya
Will the Ukrainian army launch a large scale counter-offense before May 15th?
This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim thier land before May 15th.
2023-04-02T08:06:57
2023-05-14T20:59:00
2023-05-15T09:00:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rdQWyh2tPLvZMVsqpjRD
Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of December?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-02T05:16:24
2024-01-01T15:02:36
2024-01-04T07:46:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0ynJseHJj6AbDSbQKml7
Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of November?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-02T05:15:54
2023-11-30T15:59:00
2023-12-08T11:09:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pmJosRP3nKUXsfa2jivM
Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of September?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-04-02T05:15:36
2023-09-30T16:59:00
2023-10-07T12:06:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NJIM9cT693iv3WEQ6IZw
Will there be another pandemic before 2024?
This prediction will settle as 'YES' if the WHO declares a new pandemic of any kind before 2024.
2023-04-02T05:02:00
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T05:59:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IY4cZAXStA3cvcqCDJqR
Will the Ukraine war be over by the end of 2023?
Possible criteria: An agreement where both sides agree on a final resolution. Russia withdraws all troops from Ukraine without an agreement. The Ukranian/Russian government collapses/surrenders. A ceasefire agreement is held for over 6 months (only the start date needs to be within 2023).
2023-04-02T04:54:53
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T21:46:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HqpP7fB3EflLcEyV6QHN
Will CGP Grey Release a 'Real' Video Today?
I think I will, but one never knows. Full disclosure: I've been wrong the last four days in a row on this question. Fuller disclosure: I still have to make a 'mini / not real' video to go along with the main video. At time of updating this description (13:34 London) I have not yet finished the script nor recorded the audio for the mini video. In order to not get distracted my prediction markets I will no longer update this description. And yes it's really me: https://twitter.com/cgpgrey/status/1642491762928230410 13:44: OK One more tiny edit to clarify: The will resolve YES when the MINI video goes up. When that happens in means the main video is locked and loaded. I will not place any more bets once the upload of the mini video has begun.
2023-04-02T04:36:12
2023-04-02T10:32:50
2023-04-02T10:32:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FsE3luMw3mQOUdeI36uZ
April 2023: Will Russia lose more than 195,000 troops?
Will resolve to YES if in April 2023, the Ukrainian estimate of Russia's losses reaches 195,000 troops. Last data: "as of May 1" https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/ [image][image][image]
2023-04-02T03:27:53
2023-05-01T14:59:00
2023-05-03T04:51:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HnUIFvnW5irP6eDsOyKI
April 2023: Will Russia lose more than 190,000 troops?
Will resolve to YES if in April 2023, the Ukrainian estimate of Russia's losses reaches 190,000 troops. Last data: "as of May 1" https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/ [image][image][image]
2023-04-02T03:26:08
2023-05-01T14:59:00
2023-05-03T04:57:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PO13Ge2VO3Tialhn6y7Q
Will Elon Musk tweet “Manifold Markets” by December 31, 2023?
This question asks whether Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, will tweet the words “Manifold Markets” by the end of 2023. The tweet must be posted by the verified Twitter account @elonmusk and must contain the exact phrase “Manifold Markets” (case insensitive). The tweet can be original or a reply to another tweet. The question will resolve as “Yes” if Elon Musk tweets “Manifold Markets” by December 31, 2023, and as “No” otherwise. The question will resolve as “Invalid” if Twitter is not operational or accessible by December 31, 2023, or if there are any technical issues that prevent the accurate verification of the tweet or the account.
2023-04-02T02:06:59
2023-12-31T11:59:00
2023-12-31T13:01:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TzLFeXvVPuS7d7xgxunI
Will Twitter still exist as "Twitter"? (2024)
There's been concerns: Elon Musk has said Twitter is at risk of declaring bankruptcy, many engineering staff have been laid off, rumors of lurking technical debt that could bring down the site irrecoverably, landlords not being paid on-time, and likely more-to-come. Resolves YES if Twitter is accessible by web browser as of market close, and any Tweet is able to be posted on the site. Otherwise NO. This market does not resolve NA. Temporary outages do not count, and if it's unclear whether an outage is temporary or permanent the market can be extended by up to 1 week before it will just resolve NO. Twitter is any website that refers to itself as Twitter located at either the domain twitter.com or any subdomain of twitter.com redirected to past a login step. The locator is a web browser that follows redirects, not purely a DNS mapping. A Tweet is either a message referred to as a Tweet or a publicly-visible reply to anything currently(as of 2023-04-04) named a tweet. A Website is a visual rendering produced in my web browser from HTML, CSS, and Javascript. So DNS, comments in the source code, outside comments by any owners of X, would not count as references to Twitter. Description changes: 2023-04-04: Defined Twitter and Tweet. 2023-07-24: A web browser is used to convert "twitter.com" to a website, not a DNS lookup. 2023-08-02: Defined "website"
2023-04-01T23:45:00
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T03:38:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XphDrKtHwNu3wvIuK4E0
Will Francis still be the pope by the end of 2023?
If Francis must remain pope of the Catholic Church until the end of 2023
2023-04-01T23:31:06
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:34:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cuQdhaTroQfaZdzObv7B
Will Russia detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine by 2024?
YES = Russia WILL detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine by 2024 (includes accidental/unauthorized detonations) NO = Russia will NOT detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine by 2024 (includes accidental/unauthorized detonations)
2023-04-01T23:20:55
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-03T17:06:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z3YoD0btI1ZNhg8NDPR0
At any point during 2023 will bitcoin be worth over $100,000.00?
If at any point Bitcoin becomes greater than or equal to $100,000.00 according to CoinMarketCap.com.
2023-04-01T23:10:03
2023-12-31T22:59:00
2024-01-01T06:34:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8XfRIOfakDQPR5T0Tpms
Will Donald Trump tweet once in 2023?
YES = Donald Trump WILL tweet at least once in 2023 NO = Donald Trump will NOT tweet at least once in 2023
2023-04-01T21:23:11
2023-08-25T19:48:35
2023-08-25T19:48:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1vs5cAPWzJ306yT8P4Qg
Will Destiny have a 18k viewers Kick stream by the end of April?
https://kick.com/destiny
2023-04-01T15:34:15
2023-04-30T17:34:11
2023-04-30T17:34:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ozyWlr3xO5HUuY81QzCu
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
At the start of 2025, will it be generally accepted that Google's "best" general LLM is better than OpenAI's "best" general LLM?
2023-04-01T15:07:53
2025-01-02T09:47:29
2025-01-02T09:47:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aroxPOYxWHWSOM92HVcD
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by May 15th?
(https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163392887/biden-jimmy-carter-eulogy)
2023-04-01T14:50:53
2023-05-15T23:59:00
2023-05-16T09:07:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fsQWYOrvTkLibgAKjsSa
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of May?
(https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163392887/biden-jimmy-carter-eulogy)
2023-04-01T14:38:55
2023-06-01T04:05:58
2023-06-01T04:05:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-B81zFQG5fOlVrtdiRmma
Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut in April?
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)
2023-04-01T13:33:08
2023-04-30T23:59:00
2023-05-01T03:16:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WxiEGkxJAN9QcAmGv1JS
Will there be large scale protests (>1000 ppl) in New York as a result of Trump's arrest or indictment in 2023?
(https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-protests-trump-indictment-new-york-rcna77594)
2023-04-01T12:49:14
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T06:33:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QgcWgsYk3IrcW2MpVD1i
Will there be riots in New York as a result of Trump's arrest or indictment in 2023?
(https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-protests-trump-indictment-new-york-rcna77594)
2023-04-01T12:40:08
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T06:34:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pJF6hIiSuMz0s5Zzz9GZ
Will humanity achieve immortality by July 2023?
https://twitter.com/acityinohio/status/1642135727872917504?t=H6bkznDIKA7tTivTa-1rfQ&s=19 If Josh bet pays off, this market resolves to YES.
2023-04-01T12:38:23
2023-07-01T19:59:00
2023-07-01T21:08:21
no
MANIFOLD