id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-x5mG8W082Ja3Ogg9sg4O | Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in April? | Resolves NO if Russia takes over the Bakhmut 2 train station by the end of April. Refer to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve NO. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded by the end of April, the market will resolve YES.
(https://stor... | 2023-04-01T12:31:17 | 2023-04-21T15:53:51 | 2023-04-21T15:53:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ndxS3cBT9zjKB2VrYeZg | Will Destiny talk to Mr. Girl on stream in April? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-01T11:39:11 | 2023-05-01T03:53:47 | 2023-05-01T03:53:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UmIFrfT77O2UkzBCsN1Z | Will the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut get encircled by the Russians and surrender/get wiped out in April? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-01T11:33:12 | 2023-04-30T23:59:00 | 2023-05-01T03:35:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wPV1idZ0GNtAzFgIuUvH | BTC > $28k on April 30th | Determined by price on April 30th 11:59pm GMT-7
As defined by the USD Coinmarketcap BTC price | 2023-04-01T11:29:30 | 2023-04-30T23:59:00 | 2023-05-01T01:23:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lx6RF01FBd2dOLktkSmX | Will Destiny be on stream with Lav again in April? | Talking to Lav is not necessary as long as they are in the same stream. For example, if Destiny jumps on a stream where Lav is already present and she immediately leaves after seeing him, that would count even if they didn't speak to each other. | 2023-04-01T11:20:30 | 2023-04-19T22:24:06 | 2023-04-19T22:24:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GYX3Hpb6G3nGjDa1g713 | Will there be a funding commitment of at least $1 billion in 2023 to a program for mitigating AI risk? | On the Lex Fridman Podcast #368, Lex and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate whether there will be a huge funding commitment to a program toward mitigating AI risk.
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxXHBY4k3r6n7Ab6I4qUWbxmJExTdsTQgD
Lex hopes it will happen; Eliezer doesn't believe it will happen. The discussion specifies a $1 billi... | 2023-04-01T11:03:06 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:29:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TbOE4OsEHIA82JdaXB84 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Tim Ferriss Show podcast by the end of 2023? | https://www.youtube.com/@timferriss
Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded. | 2023-04-01T10:34:57 | 2024-01-01T04:58:58 | 2024-01-01T04:58:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n3LR5VSWA8L4ytAUDeC3 | Will Destiny talk to Adin Ross again in April? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-04-01T10:20:48 | 2023-05-01T04:02:22 | 2023-05-01T04:02:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XmsExyh61ITrz200S2Pl | Will narrow super human AI's maintain the edge over more generalist AIs in chess until the end of 2023? | Currently large language models trained on predicting text are comparable with puposefully designed translation systems in effectiveness, but are definitely inferior to other narrow AI systems in things like playing chess.
I will resolve this market YES if at the end of the year the best engines for playing chess need... | 2023-04-01T08:58:04 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T04:58:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s9ECrlGd88Vw7OVsc930 | There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025 | Apr 1, 4:35pm: Will there be an open source LLM approximately as good as GPT4 before 2025? → There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025 | 2023-04-01T08:29:28 | 2024-07-18T09:07:54 | 2024-07-18T09:07:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xNHMxnutM98KPTNbKBKq | Will the US government launch an effort in 2023 to augment human intelligence biologically in response to AI risk? | On the Lex Fridman Podcast #368, Eliezer Yudkowsky mentions that one approach in combating AI risk could be to augment human intelligence biologically.
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxuTA2mywY03QjltaJTR95jEjUisEwfR43
(note that he frames this approach as contingent on massive public outcry, which he does not expect)
Th... | 2023-04-01T07:54:12 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:35:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XiUVgUjIQFy3Rp4GMDAQ | Will Rob Miles be a guest on the Lex Fridman podcast before the end of 2023? | https://twitter.com/robertskmiles
https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman
Resolves based on when the podcast is released, not when it is recorded. | 2023-04-01T07:32:06 | 2024-01-01T04:51:30 | 2024-01-01T04:51:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aXo3cjCqy8mwpT8JAex2 | Will there be more than 650 Mass Shootings in the U.S. in 2023? | The data source will be gunviolencearchive.org
Data for past years from that source: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls
2022: 646
2021: 690
2020: 610
2019: 415
2018: 336 | 2023-04-01T05:09:45 | 2023-12-15T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T05:03:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8beTunYScw7sR9Gi5ZZg | Will another Western country have blocked any OpenAI products after Italy by July 1 2023? | Resolves if another Western country blocks an OpenAI model by July 1 2023. | 2023-03-31T23:20:36 | 2023-07-01T23:59:00 | 2023-07-02T01:52:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5lu1vCuAr9Tkv2wIQKsT | Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025? | A recent open letter called for a moratorium on the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) systems, highlighting the potential risks to society and humanity. The letter urged all AI labs to pause the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, for at least 6 months. It a... | 2023-03-31T20:16:33 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-06T13:28:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZkNyakoRSTSZyrsKwwWs | Will ChatGPT or equivalent AI chatbot be able to recall the information across all our chat history by 2024? | Right now the advanced AI chatbots do not recall any information outside a specific chat. Will this change by 2024 so that at least one advanced AI chatbot can recall all the information in all of my interactions with it? | 2023-03-31T19:24:26 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-10T16:28:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c6VCgrRnenkA55rsKceV | Will Destiny talk to Brittany Simon in April? | Has to be on stream. | 2023-03-31T18:05:45 | 2023-05-01T04:04:41 | 2023-05-01T04:04:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IwX2Va8Iv3MbOUMKeaUS | Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of October? | https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey | 2023-03-31T15:57:05 | 2023-10-31T16:59:00 | 2023-10-31T19:36:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NWjzNa8bMSA2g515H3O0 | Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024? | Resolves YES if Joe Biden runs in 2024, with both feet off the ground.
Apr 13, 11:00am: Will Joe Biden run in 2024? → Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024? | 2023-03-31T15:21:34 | 2024-10-26T12:45:34 | 2024-10-26T12:45:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QAnLUYrTdHlaHFmRtGRq | Will destiny have a talk with Andrew Tate in the next 3 months? | Will destiny have a talk with Andrew Tate in the next 3 months?
Resolves to yes if destiny talks to andrew tate in any capacity on a livestream or a recorded video. | 2023-03-31T13:24:43 | 2023-07-07T20:59:00 | 2023-07-08T14:27:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L68g6fe4PT2QSv3RNMl7 | Will ChatGPT be easily accessible in Italy on 2024-01-01? | There has been an announcement about Italy banning ChatGPT
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406
Will it be enforced? Will it last?
Resolution by me asking five random Italian friends of mine, located in Italy at the time, whether they can access ChatGPT. Resolves to majority. People asked should not have/ne... | 2023-03-31T11:27:15 | 2024-01-02T01:19:58 | 2024-01-02T01:19:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4rHTdeIAw9LEqbPjam0C | Will anyone profit by at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that res... | 2023-03-31T08:17:17 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T15:47:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JPgWcMFLG6AiHour0kte | Will anyone profit by at least M$500,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that res... | 2023-03-31T08:16:55 | 2023-05-15T22:57:53 | 2023-05-15T22:57:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hchIZF3N38YpV30wnh8f | Will Labour win at least 350 seats in the next UK general election? | Co-operative MPs are included as Labour. | 2023-03-31T06:56:45 | 2024-07-04T22:49:20 | 2024-07-04T22:49:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YGiTGERtF0ZBtteHobOn | Will Labour win at least 300 seats in the next UK general election? | Co-operative MPs are included as Labour. | 2023-03-31T06:56:09 | 2024-07-04T22:48:33 | 2024-07-04T22:48:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qyGL0LZISD9g2DneAa8D | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before 2027? | This resolves YES if he is found guilty of a crime before January 1, 2027 | 2023-03-31T06:18:05 | 2024-05-30T15:21:36 | 2024-05-30T15:21:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vBSztdtpz0pt3Q6xzYO9 | Will a human walk on the moon by the end of 2024 | Resolves YES if a human steps foot on the moon (they can wear a space suit) between market creation and end of year 2024. | 2023-03-30T23:44:50 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-25T21:06:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rktSk9CnO2r0WF4ZqFMD | Will Trump be indicted again? (2023) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-30T21:49:10 | 2023-06-14T15:27:56 | 2023-06-14T15:27:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rh7X9k10IG7pgctfBXCo | Will Trump win the black vote? | YES if NYT declares his indictment boosted his black vote share (and it increases) | 2023-03-30T21:04:38 | 2024-11-10T21:59:00 | 2024-11-15T23:00:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SI19wtFDgBbpWXaO2J3l | Will a jury convict Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-30T21:01:02 | 2024-05-31T07:20:02 | 2024-05-31T07:20:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EF8yuzuIZKQHWLouJa9W | Will Trump be indicted again? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-30T18:16:56 | 2023-06-14T15:28:21 | 2023-06-14T15:28:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zPnAiiGtzpAtP9LnSv4a | Will Biden pardon Trump | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-30T18:07:39 | 2025-01-20T10:21:26 | 2025-01-20T10:21:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fiF2whqzeGjCcMAMeYOm | Will the Lunar Society podcast have more subscribers than the Lex Fridman podcast on youtube by July 2024? | Gigachad Manifold traders buy Patel and short Fridman. Lunar society is going to the moon! | 2023-03-30T18:05:12 | 2024-07-31T16:59:00 | 2024-08-04T11:33:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3NpmIzgng6tfkGGmFqpK | Will Destiny talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky on stream before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-30T17:07:55 | 2023-09-24T04:25:11 | 2023-09-24T04:25:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Mi3zqJQJlu9Fld8WQVGQ | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Making Sense podcast with Sam Harris again by the end of 2024? | https://www.samharris.org/podcasts
Yudkowsky first appeared on Sam Harris's podcast on episode #116 in 2018.
If he goes on another episode before 2025, this market will resolve to YES. | 2023-03-30T17:02:38 | 2025-01-01T00:44:04 | 2025-01-01T00:44:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QhPyTsDfmLZHfJ1IHolc | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky give an official TED talk before 2024? | A TEDx talk will not count for the purposes of this market. | 2023-03-30T16:28:10 | 2023-04-22T11:57:07 | 2023-04-22T11:57:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UmB7uQLKa3QZlVrD6Tlz | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15656/new-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern-before-2024/
On 15/16 March 2023, the WHO updated its tracking system and working definitions for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern to take to account for the dominance and variance of the Omicron variant and its sublineages. The new definitions... | 2023-03-30T15:35:56 | 2023-12-31T09:00:00 | 2024-01-01T07:43:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-erDCPnssu9MiSsebr20i | Will Trump flee the country in 2023? | If Trump leaves the U.S., plausibly to avoid arrest, this market will resolve YES. | 2023-03-30T15:20:49 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:25:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9XRMCYVHxv8LyDjysNB3 | Will Destiny have a sexual relationship with another mentally ill women in 2023 that leads to more drama? | "more drama" would mean a decent focus on the issue and a "good" amount of buzz.
UPDATE: The resolution of YES has been decided due to the “itschaeiry” 15/2 incident. | 2023-03-30T13:38:27 | 2023-11-13T17:38:08 | 2023-11-13T17:38:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rnE707fYvYYVnWeyfNVo | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky have at least 200,000 followers on Twitter by the end of 2024? | https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/esyudkowsky | 2023-03-30T09:58:47 | 2024-12-31T21:00:00 | 2025-01-02T12:27:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PCfQvu1NUPoQKL74mLES | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | From https://metaculus.com//questions/15641/civil-war-in-israel-before-2024/ In early 2023, mass protests and strikes erupted in Israel over the government's plans to strip power from judges. The [reforms](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65086871) would grant the government control over judge appointments ... | 2023-03-30T09:22:27 | 2023-12-31T04:00:00 | 2024-01-01T07:43:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-D9wfs3Dg33vOyFSZj9gc | Will OpenAI publish a response to the FLI open letter before the end of April? | https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
Must be an official OpenAI response, not just a tweet from Sam Altman. | 2023-03-30T09:04:44 | 2023-04-30T21:00:00 | 2023-05-06T19:28:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y33bAsNQFKOpmaO6EBVW | Will any 2024 US presidential debate mention a strict ban on AI process such as that advocated for by Eliezer Yudkowsky? | https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/ | 2023-03-30T09:01:15 | 2024-12-31T21:00:00 | 2025-01-01T16:29:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0L9lBTamWTEQbLaFgqat | Will CGPgrey hit 1B views before the end of the year? | Siting at 912M views as of March 30 | 2023-03-30T08:50:27 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:57:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oFpjCSNLSQv1GDBNmKHD | Will any CGP Grey video surpass "The Simple Solution to Traffic" as their most popular video by the end of 2024? | https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos | 2023-03-30T06:43:22 | 2024-12-31T21:00:00 | 2025-01-02T18:46:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TkXAZyIztqIbGdxvlPqR | Will any CGP Grey market get at least 200 traders by the end of 2023? | (Other than the first one that already did.)
Refers to markets about CGP Grey, not markets created by CGP Grey. | 2023-03-30T06:37:49 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-04T11:58:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kQlebfpaUwO01pWkJzOs | Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023? | "Very famous" = Has at least 10 million followers on Twitter (adjusted for deflation in the event of a loss of popularity of Twitter), or they're otherwise famous enough that if they were to create a public Twitter account they would almost certainly get that number with ease.
The claim doesn't have to be made on Twit... | 2023-03-30T06:20:34 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-02T16:13:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VIs7Y36m8CL1rURNx6Jv | Will Yudkowsky appear on Fox or CNN in 2023? | Must be an interview - either live or produced for the show.
Mar 30, 4:05pm: Will yudkowsky appear on fox or CNN in 2023? → Will yudkowsky appear on Fox or CNN in 2023? | 2023-03-30T04:15:32 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:46:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bynv2bZfRuolkDkQDX17 | Will Midjourney be acquired by Alphabet (GOOGL) before July 1, 2023? | As the AI battle is intensifying, will Google decide to acquire the popular image generation tool Midjourney - that already has 6M users and currently leaving DALL-E and Stable Diffusion behind - to establish supremacy in the field, instead of launching its own image gen tool?
[image]Mar 31, 7:34pm: Will Midjourney be... | 2023-03-30T03:48:17 | 2023-06-30T08:59:00 | 2023-06-30T09:23:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jY5J3eFOguSZuuKwTKMX | Will Putin visit Turkey during April? | Possibility he will be attending opening of a Russian built nuclear power plant. | 2023-03-30T00:21:44 | 2023-04-30T20:59:00 | 2023-04-30T21:36:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mbCC6h0DFCSVxJjhY5yh | Will "Yuddite" become the established term for people who want to slow down/stop AI capabilities before 2024? | After this article dropped:
https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
I started seeing a bunch of people start using the term "Yuddite." Will this become the established epithet used to describe people who want to slow down/stop AI capabilities before this year is out? If so this market res... | 2023-03-29T23:30:08 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:58:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1IHj91s6jwUlCBfIUGK4 | Will Trump tweet by Nov 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-29T22:14:51 | 2023-09-01T15:37:34 | 2023-09-01T15:37:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DjYRMIQ0iYu4CcZ8hd4v | Will we reach AGI by the End of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-29T22:06:03 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:16:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wPxQHpsGsLCxnoqiHIjZ | Will Cillian Murphy receive the Oscar for Best Actor for his role in Oppenheimer? | This market will resolve YES if Cillian Murphy receives the Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role during the year that 'Oppenheimer' is eligible for the Academy Awards. If he does not receive the award, or if 'Oppenheimer' is not eligible for Academy Awards by 2026, this market will resolve NO.
| 2023-03-29T20:50:14 | 2024-03-10T19:02:35 | 2024-03-10T19:02:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v8E3l0ocbBl1PegmFg5r | Will Jared Kushner be indicted for any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if Jared Kushner is indicted for any crime by the end of 2023. Does not need to be related to the time he spent working for his father-in-law. | 2023-03-29T19:06:58 | 2023-12-31T20:08:47 | 2023-12-31T20:08:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d27ymnY64xbY93O6LPDL | Will Donald Trump be formally exonerated of any crimes for which there is currently a grand jury by end of 2023? | Resolves YES if any prosector or special counsel currently investigating Trump with an open grand jury closes said grand jury and issues a report stating that the grand jury voted against indicting him. This would mean the prosecutor didn't mean the low bar of "probable cause" to suspect a crime was committed. Grand ju... | 2023-03-29T19:04:15 | 2023-09-08T12:27:58 | 2023-09-08T12:27:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tWfKiLQ1vFIliuEz2Gmp | Will Destiny sue Lav? | [tweet][tweet](https://www.youtube.com/embed/mYwtUnpOElo?t=1466)(https://www.youtube.com/embed/EdhEHJJ0k-Q?t=381)[markets] | 2023-03-29T16:14:00 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:13:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kYRQKmYjBiFYdqqCncVb | Will any group develop a GPT-4 competitor of comparable capability (text) by Oct. 2023 | "comparable capability" refers to the text performance only, to keep it simple (the hardest part of making GPT-4 is the language model anyway). To be comparable the performance should be equal or extremely close across a wide range of benchmarks (e.g. MMLU, HumanEval, WinoGrande) and tests (e.g. SAT). It should also ha... | 2023-03-29T15:16:17 | 2023-09-30T15:59:00 | 2023-09-30T16:38:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ok1r2LXLdNYDvKjey0jT | 🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to Make Significantly Better, "Common Sense Judgements About What Happens Next," by End of 2023? | Preface:
Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.
Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme
[image]Market Description:
Resolved by submissions at:
https://leaderboard.allenai.org/visualcomet/submissions/public
Visual Comet
This leaderboard... | 2023-03-29T14:42:41 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-08T05:16:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2jIFr6NH2ySE6EyzLSwx | 🐕 Will A.I. Be Significantly Better, "Able to Track Changes in State," By the End of 2023? | Warning! This market may already be doomed, as the threshold picked is higher than human performance. However I don't know for sure, just letting you know before you bet. Here's one that's set at slightly below human performance:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PatrickDelaney/will-ai-be-able-to-meet-just-below)Preface... | 2023-03-29T14:33:26 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-09T15:58:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YGNFGE77WP8ZrxAPP9Pe | SpaceX Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy rocket suffers an anomaly in 2023 that results in loss of payload | YES -- Falcon anomaly in 2023 (including prelaunch anomalies, excluding landing failures) followed by the payload not getting to the target orbit. Partial failures (when some payload is delivered and some isn't) do not count.
NO otherwise | 2023-03-29T13:20:42 | 2023-12-30T19:01:01 | 2023-12-30T19:01:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E7Fz8AJNwyOEjn3ADhPy | Will the S&P close higher on March 30th than it closed on March 29th? | Closes at 3pm. Resolves at 4pm. | 2023-03-29T13:02:59 | 2023-03-30T12:00:00 | 2023-03-30T13:05:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LfKYZQS4cuGVtAEBj52D | Will the movie Oppenheimer (2023) get higher than a 79% overall critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes by July 22st 2023? | Will resolve based on the Rotten Tomatoes "Tomatometer" score for the critic rating here: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/oppenheimer_2023
I'm including the trailer link:
https://youtu.be/bK6ldnjE3Y0
(If the movie doesn't get released on July 21st, I will extend it as needed.) | 2023-03-29T12:19:49 | 2023-07-22T20:59:00 | 2023-07-22T21:30:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8TN59TJkzH5qTVnwA3h3 | Will Pope Francis die before the end of 2023? | Resolves to yes if Pope Francis dies before December 31st, 13:59:59 Vatican local time. | 2023-03-29T12:17:21 | 2023-12-31T06:36:09 | 2023-12-31T06:36:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FNsTr5Ciuv3zoIm5icGj | Will CGP Grey upload any videos in 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-29T10:17:12 | 2025-02-17T13:01:31 | 2025-02-17T13:01:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JmbvrNvZiHWZIBrrlIrO | Will CGP Grey upload any videos in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-29T10:16:37 | 2024-10-30T21:22:10 | 2024-10-30T21:22:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ka3ADk0gihMBJCE8sBPs | Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025? | "Consumer hardware" is defined as costing no more than $3,000 USD for everything that goes inside the case (not including peripherals).
In terms of "GPT4-equivalent model," I'll go with whatever popular consensus seems to indicate the top benchmarks (up to three) are regarding performance. The performance metrics shou... | 2023-03-29T09:51:44 | 2024-05-28T16:41:31 | 2024-05-28T16:41:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5pT11JjoD46zOoW2OgOR | Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024? | "Consumer hardware" is defined as costing no more than $3,000 USD for everything that goes inside the case (not including peripherals).
In terms of "GPT4-equivalent model," I'll go with whatever popular consensus seems to indicate the top benchmarks (up to three) are regarding performance. The performance metrics shou... | 2023-03-29T09:51:28 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-05T23:04:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-euXMfxgamtEd36UeAeFK | 🐕 Will A.I. Get, "Scarily Better at Helping To Resolve Shipping Supply Chain Issues," by the End of 2023? (HuggingFace) | Preface:
Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.
Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme
[image]Market Description
Supply chain and its effect on inflation have been major news and conversational topics since around 2021, so it's quite nat... | 2023-03-29T09:07:22 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-08T05:17:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f7WUHGBIFnJFyGzKY3Qz | Will Donald Trump be arrested by the end of April? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-29T07:55:53 | 2023-04-12T14:55:15 | 2023-04-12T14:55:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lwU5cMHjqCuhHdZjUuZK | Will experts find the trig-based “proof” of the Pythagorean Theorem by high schoolers legit? | There's some media reporting that two high school students, Calcea Johnson and NeKiya Jackson, have proven the Pythagorean Theorem using the Law of Sines, the first proof using trig without using circular reasoning. (https://www.insider.com/us-teens-claim-to-have-proved-pythagorean-theorem-thought-impossible-2023-3?amp... | 2023-03-29T07:50:53 | 2023-06-29T18:00:00 | 2023-06-29T18:08:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xM4nmV4tM6DXYcN1HJVf | Will Rational Animations reach 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | https://www.youtube.com/RationalAnimations | 2023-03-29T06:51:27 | 2025-01-01T01:27:51 | 2025-01-01T01:27:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Jz13Hg6LnSKi4IRNoTcK | Will CGP Grey release a new video by the end of April? | Must be on https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey. | 2023-03-29T05:55:52 | 2023-04-02T15:19:13 | 2023-04-02T15:19:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NGYSjJ95SEq605QTsWPW | Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of June? | https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/cgpgrey | 2023-03-29T05:51:35 | 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-07-30T23:16:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SdeYmtMdLM3hbPlG8vmE | Will CGP Grey release a new video by the end of May? | Must be on https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey. | 2023-03-29T05:47:48 | 2023-04-02T15:18:40 | 2023-04-02T15:18:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PW8NTEggOlaQB1Y72YPa | Will it be verified that Sam Altman signed the AI moratorium open letter before April 5th, 2023? | A recent open letter called for a moratorium on the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) systems, highlighting the potential risks to society and humanity. The letter urged all AI labs to pause the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, for at least 6 months. It a... | 2023-03-28T20:48:06 | 2023-04-05T00:01:00 | 2023-04-05T11:15:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rNKd6Mu8qBxzKBT5HApL | Will the Super Mario Bros. Movie have at least a 70% on Rotten Tomatoes after April 10th? | Resolves to yes if the Super Mario movie has a 70% or greater critic's score on Rotten Tomatos by the end of April 10th 2023, PDT (five days after the movie's premiere). | 2023-03-28T19:17:03 | 2023-04-08T00:00:00 | 2023-04-10T19:04:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ci2EBTMqWxftttXM9mPg | Will FLI's "Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter" result in a successful 6+ month pause of training powerful AIs? | The Letter: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
[image][image][image] | 2023-03-28T18:51:37 | 2023-09-30T16:59:00 | 2023-10-04T16:25:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7DmdFfVuuBK60tQJVij5 | Video-Game AGI by 2025 | An AI that can play any video game at human level on consumer hardware (and human-levels of sample efficiency in learning new games) | 2023-03-28T18:41:09 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-02T16:55:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-098NwlTXw3BFk7yXBlVU | Will the RESTRICT Act be passed? (TikTok) | Resolves YES if the bill becomes a law.
"A bipartisan group of senators introduced a sweeping bill Tuesday that would allow the federal government to regulate and even ban foreign-produced technology, including TikTok.
The bill, the Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communication... | 2023-03-28T15:32:23 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:37:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7RQeXdYL9YSuVxQ2NBfG | Will Trump be indicted during April? | Resolves YES if Trump is indicted in any jurisdiction during the month of April 2023. This market is about the timing of the grand jury vote irregardless of whether sealed or not. So the NYC indictment won't count for April because the grand jury voted to indict in March. | 2023-03-28T13:59:04 | 2023-04-30T20:59:00 | 2023-04-30T21:37:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-49NATO01Uwl2kt4bjd7Q | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the NL Central Division? | Resolves YES if the Reds finish the regular season in at least a tie for first place. | 2023-03-28T12:46:43 | 2023-10-01T20:59:00 | 2023-10-02T12:34:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VD3AK7Hhh9kqnPUf0UrK | Will the St Louis Cardinals win the NL Central Division? | Resolves YES if the Cardinals finish the regular season in at least a tie for first place. | 2023-03-28T12:46:14 | 2023-10-01T20:59:00 | 2023-10-02T12:35:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gxfxtmx4VfJBWiceW2KG | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central Division? | Resolves YES if the Brewers finish the regular season in at least a tie for first place. | 2023-03-28T12:45:35 | 2023-10-01T20:59:00 | 2023-10-02T12:35:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CtqBPIDKELMCOlv6W2Gk | Will the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central Division? | Resolves YES if the Cubs finish the regular season in at least a tie for first place. | 2023-03-28T12:44:51 | 2023-10-01T20:59:00 | 2023-10-02T12:35:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aHjcaCxaUR8Y1rM4lQdm | Will any top AI lab commit to a moratorium on giant AI experiments before 2024? | A recent open letter called for a moratorium on the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) systems, highlighting the potential risks to society and humanity. The letter urged all AI labs to pause the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, for at least 6 months. It a... | 2023-03-28T11:27:40 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:44:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R42WMDXovWMYeYJ4oRxC | Will Summoning Salt reach 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | https://www.youtube.com/@SummoningSalt
| 2023-03-28T11:01:25 | 2025-01-01T01:08:26 | 2025-01-01T01:08:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HaO7AyuKvqZQ1j8Mu17x | (M1000 subsidy!) Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (in April) | This market predicts whether GPT-4 will be able to solve an "easy" Sudoku puzzle before May 1, 2023.
Based on @/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to . The criteria here are the same, just with a shorter timeframe.
Resolves YES if:
A fixed prompt is found that enables GPT-4 to reliably solve freshly-generated easy... | 2023-03-28T10:12:26 | 2023-04-30T23:59:00 | 2023-05-04T13:41:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q56FqeI6ibnELfudQilx | Will Destiny and Aella both publicly claim to have had sex with each other before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-28T10:11:22 | 2023-12-31T15:02:03 | 2023-12-31T15:02:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b3NsNbKnjmLLBpcywBO4 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the 4th of July? | Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on July 4th 2023. I will wait a couple days afterwards in order to make sure there isnt any news after the fact. | 2023-03-28T07:50:42 | 2023-07-04T16:59:00 | 2023-07-04T19:24:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MrHZkwvKzZKTIPMMfE69 | Will CGP Grey make a video about prediction markets before the end of 2024? | https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos
Prediction markets, a specific prediction market, or something related to prediction markets must be a main subject of the video, not just an offhand reference.
See also @/IsaacKing/will-cgp-grey-make-a-video-that-men | 2023-03-28T06:20:21 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-01T16:33:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dcBFMwpQlWdrN5IGBHzw | Will CGP Grey release a new video by the end of May? | Must be on https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey. | 2023-03-28T06:02:11 | 2023-03-29T05:46:51 | 2023-03-29T05:46:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-upM6WcuwygkwUmy3aQfd | Will it be confirmed that the Nashville Covenant School shooter is a trans woman? | [tweet] | 2023-03-28T01:04:12 | 2023-05-01T13:29:38 | 2023-05-01T13:29:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vueagCrY1x1dI5bDugMr | Will non-verified users be able to vote in Twitter polls on 30 September 2023? | Elon Musk announced that:
"Starting April 15th, only verified accounts will be eligible to be in For You recommendations.
The is the only realistic way to address advanced AI bot swarms taking over. It is otherwise a hopeless losing battle.
Voting in polls will require verification for same reason."
Resolves as YES... | 2023-03-27T19:14:10 | 2023-09-30T10:04:55 | 2023-09-30T10:04:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IlUsaSFreSee3Ts42vHd | Will non-verified Twitter uses be able to vote in polls on September 27 2023? | Elon Musk has said that from 5th April 2023, only verified Twitter users will be able to vote in polls. Will this policy be in effect six months from today, on September 27 2023, or will voting be allowed again?
This resolves to YES if any non-verified user can vote in any poll on that day.
[image] | 2023-03-27T19:14:02 | 2023-09-26T16:59:00 | 2023-09-27T17:53:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WdtAYG6HdtBqgsMle3uF | Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023? | "AI", "Sam Altman", "ChatGPT", "Anthropic", "Our new AI overlords", "Neural networks", etc. would all resolve YES. | 2023-03-27T17:53:14 | 2023-12-06T13:27:11 | 2023-12-06T13:27:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UBWCn1rKovkxYtouOPHW | On April 15th, will only verified Twitter accounts show up on users's "For You" feed? | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972
Resolves YES if sometime on April 15th, and then thereafter, the only accounts that show up on Twitter user's "For you" feeds are verified accounts. | 2023-03-27T17:43:25 | 2023-04-16T11:51:12 | 2023-04-16T11:51:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YM3btBx7Sy14foEzyRj1 | Will it be confirmed that the Nashville Covenant School shooter is trans? | [tweet] | 2023-03-27T15:49:47 | 2023-04-30T23:59:00 | 2023-05-30T23:42:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rZY16wxgtKEKSh0xFJSS | Will Destiny address the leak that he was so intimate with Lauren Southern he nearly broke up with Melina for her? | Can't make a reddit thread, might as well make a market about it GIGACHAD
Closes by the end of April, any direct mention/discussion by him will count as YES, someone else bringing it up and Destin dodging will not.
[image] | 2023-03-27T14:15:09 | 2023-04-30T13:59:00 | 2023-04-30T14:06:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L8Da5E4NLIC7sAWWNoiH | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | From https://metaculus.com//questions/15627/russian-nukes-in-belarus-before-2024/ In late March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has [announced plans](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This would mark the first time Moscow would based nuclear arms ou... | 2023-03-27T12:20:31 | 2023-07-01T05:06:39 | 2023-07-01T05:06:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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