id
stringlengths 8
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| question
stringlengths 13
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| description
stringlengths 0
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| open_date
stringlengths 19
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| resolve_date
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| resolution
stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-x5mG8W082Ja3Ogg9sg4O
|
Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in April?
|
Resolves NO if Russia takes over the Bakhmut 2 train station by the end of April. Refer to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve NO. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded by the end of April, the market will resolve YES.
(https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)
|
2023-04-01T12:31:17
|
2023-04-21T15:53:51
|
2023-04-21T15:53:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ndxS3cBT9zjKB2VrYeZg
|
Will Destiny talk to Mr. Girl on stream in April?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-01T11:39:11
|
2023-05-01T03:53:47
|
2023-05-01T03:53:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UmIFrfT77O2UkzBCsN1Z
|
Will the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut get encircled by the Russians and surrender/get wiped out in April?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-01T11:33:12
|
2023-04-30T23:59:00
|
2023-05-01T03:35:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wPV1idZ0GNtAzFgIuUvH
|
BTC > $28k on April 30th
|
Determined by price on April 30th 11:59pm GMT-7
As defined by the USD Coinmarketcap BTC price
|
2023-04-01T11:29:30
|
2023-04-30T23:59:00
|
2023-05-01T01:23:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lx6RF01FBd2dOLktkSmX
|
Will Destiny be on stream with Lav again in April?
|
Talking to Lav is not necessary as long as they are in the same stream. For example, if Destiny jumps on a stream where Lav is already present and she immediately leaves after seeing him, that would count even if they didn't speak to each other.
|
2023-04-01T11:20:30
|
2023-04-19T22:24:06
|
2023-04-19T22:24:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GYX3Hpb6G3nGjDa1g713
|
Will there be a funding commitment of at least $1 billion in 2023 to a program for mitigating AI risk?
|
On the Lex Fridman Podcast #368, Lex and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate whether there will be a huge funding commitment to a program toward mitigating AI risk.
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxXHBY4k3r6n7Ab6I4qUWbxmJExTdsTQgD
Lex hopes it will happen; Eliezer doesn't believe it will happen. The discussion specifies a $1 billion threshold, but with no specific timeframe.
This market resolves to YES if there is a prize offer or other funding commitment made in 2023, equivalent to at least US$1 billion, toward understanding and mitigating AI risk.
The program has to be a $1 billion budget commitment to a prize or to a coordinated effort by a single umbrella organization, but can be supported and funded by any combination of government or private sources. The funding only has to be committed by end of 2023, as opposed to provided or spent by end of 2023.
As reference, the Manhatten Project cost nearly $2 billion (equivalent to $24 billion in 2021). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project
|
2023-04-01T11:03:06
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T06:29:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TbOE4OsEHIA82JdaXB84
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Tim Ferriss Show podcast by the end of 2023?
|
https://www.youtube.com/@timferriss
Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded.
|
2023-04-01T10:34:57
|
2024-01-01T04:58:58
|
2024-01-01T04:58:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n3LR5VSWA8L4ytAUDeC3
|
Will Destiny talk to Adin Ross again in April?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-04-01T10:20:48
|
2023-05-01T04:02:22
|
2023-05-01T04:02:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XmsExyh61ITrz200S2Pl
|
Will narrow super human AI's maintain the edge over more generalist AIs in chess until the end of 2023?
|
Currently large language models trained on predicting text are comparable with puposefully designed translation systems in effectiveness, but are definitely inferior to other narrow AI systems in things like playing chess.
I will resolve this market YES if at the end of the year the best engines for playing chess need to be secifically trained for the task (i.e. either adversarially playing games, or on large datasets consisting mainly of old games, things like that) and NO if LLMs trained on general texts or other similar broad- purpose AIs are able to win a majority of games against the best available narrow models.
I will not consider multi-purpose AI systems explicitly designed with narrow game-playing subsystems, or able to perform API calls to chess engines, anything like that. I will consider broad AIs with access to calculators, program interpreters and the internet as long as it is possible to determine that they are not calling a chess engine.
Market resolves to my judgment on the state of affairs on 01/01/2024, and N/A if there is a gross lack of information (i.e. i cannot get access to state of the art models for testing and/or there is a strong lack of consensus among experts.
|
2023-04-01T08:58:04
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T04:58:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s9ECrlGd88Vw7OVsc930
|
There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
|
Apr 1, 4:35pm: Will there be an open source LLM approximately as good as GPT4 before 2025? → There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
|
2023-04-01T08:29:28
|
2024-07-18T09:07:54
|
2024-07-18T09:07:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xNHMxnutM98KPTNbKBKq
|
Will the US government launch an effort in 2023 to augment human intelligence biologically in response to AI risk?
|
On the Lex Fridman Podcast #368, Eliezer Yudkowsky mentions that one approach in combating AI risk could be to augment human intelligence biologically.
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxuTA2mywY03QjltaJTR95jEjUisEwfR43
(note that he frames this approach as contingent on massive public outcry, which he does not expect)
This market resolves to YES if there is a new program following this approach announced or launched by any branch of the US federal government by the end of 2023.
|
2023-04-01T07:54:12
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T06:35:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XiUVgUjIQFy3Rp4GMDAQ
|
Will Rob Miles be a guest on the Lex Fridman podcast before the end of 2023?
|
https://twitter.com/robertskmiles
https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman
Resolves based on when the podcast is released, not when it is recorded.
|
2023-04-01T07:32:06
|
2024-01-01T04:51:30
|
2024-01-01T04:51:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aXo3cjCqy8mwpT8JAex2
|
Will there be more than 650 Mass Shootings in the U.S. in 2023?
|
The data source will be gunviolencearchive.org
Data for past years from that source: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls
2022: 646
2021: 690
2020: 610
2019: 415
2018: 336
|
2023-04-01T05:09:45
|
2023-12-15T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T05:03:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8beTunYScw7sR9Gi5ZZg
|
Will another Western country have blocked any OpenAI products after Italy by July 1 2023?
|
Resolves if another Western country blocks an OpenAI model by July 1 2023.
|
2023-03-31T23:20:36
|
2023-07-01T23:59:00
|
2023-07-02T01:52:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5lu1vCuAr9Tkv2wIQKsT
|
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
|
A recent open letter called for a moratorium on the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) systems, highlighting the potential risks to society and humanity. The letter urged all AI labs to pause the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, for at least 6 months. It also called for shared safety protocols and improved AI governance. The letter suggested that if the AI labs do not enact a pause voluntarily, governments should step in and institute a moratorium.
Before January 1st, 2025, will the United States government commit to legal restrictions on sufficiently large training runs for AI systems?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2025, credible news sources, official statements, or legal documents confirm that the United States government has committed to legal restrictions on sufficiently large training runs for AI systems, meeting all of the following criteria:
Government Commitment: The commitment must come from the United States government, in the form of one or more of the following:
a. An executive order signed by the President of the United States.
b. Legislation passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by the President or enacted through a congressional override of a presidential veto.
c. A legally binding decision or regulation issued by a federal agency with jurisdiction over AI research and development, such as the National Science Foundation (NSF) or the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
Definition of Sufficiently Large Training Runs: The commitment must clearly define what constitutes a "sufficiently large training run" for AI systems. This definition should provide specific thresholds, such as the number of parameters, the amount of computation, or the level of performance that would trigger the moratorium. For example, the definition could specify that training runs involving models with more than 100 billion parameters are subject to the moratorium.
Duration of Moratorium: The moratorium must have a specified start date, but no specific end date is required. It may have an indefinite duration or be tied to the achievement of certain milestones, such as the development of comprehensive safety protocols or AI governance frameworks.
Nature of the Moratorium: The moratorium must impose restrictions on sufficiently large training runs for AI systems within the jurisdiction of the United States. These restrictions may take various forms, such as:
a. Requiring AI labs and researchers to obtain specific permits or approvals before conducting sufficiently large training runs, with exemptions granted for military purposes or when exceptional circumstances are demonstrated.
b. Imposing penalties or sanctions on entities that engage in sufficiently large training runs without meeting certain safety or governance requirements.
If credible news sources, official statements, or legal documents confirm that the United States government has committed to a moratorium on sufficiently large training runs for AI systems meeting all of the above criteria before January 1st, 2025, the question will resolve positively. If no such commitment is made by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.
Note: This question focuses on the commitment to a moratorium by the United States government, not the actual implementation or enforcement of the moratorium. Additionally, the question is not concerned with the potential impact of the moratorium on AI research, technological progress, or society at large. The question does not require the inclusion of specific safety protocols or AI governance systems within the moratorium commitment.
|
2023-03-31T20:16:33
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00
|
2025-01-06T13:28:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZkNyakoRSTSZyrsKwwWs
|
Will ChatGPT or equivalent AI chatbot be able to recall the information across all our chat history by 2024?
|
Right now the advanced AI chatbots do not recall any information outside a specific chat. Will this change by 2024 so that at least one advanced AI chatbot can recall all the information in all of my interactions with it?
|
2023-03-31T19:24:26
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-10T16:28:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c6VCgrRnenkA55rsKceV
|
Will Destiny talk to Brittany Simon in April?
|
Has to be on stream.
|
2023-03-31T18:05:45
|
2023-05-01T04:04:41
|
2023-05-01T04:04:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IwX2Va8Iv3MbOUMKeaUS
|
Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of October?
|
https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey
|
2023-03-31T15:57:05
|
2023-10-31T16:59:00
|
2023-10-31T19:36:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NWjzNa8bMSA2g515H3O0
|
Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Joe Biden runs in 2024, with both feet off the ground.
Apr 13, 11:00am: Will Joe Biden run in 2024? → Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024?
|
2023-03-31T15:21:34
|
2024-10-26T12:45:34
|
2024-10-26T12:45:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QAnLUYrTdHlaHFmRtGRq
|
Will destiny have a talk with Andrew Tate in the next 3 months?
|
Will destiny have a talk with Andrew Tate in the next 3 months?
Resolves to yes if destiny talks to andrew tate in any capacity on a livestream or a recorded video.
|
2023-03-31T13:24:43
|
2023-07-07T20:59:00
|
2023-07-08T14:27:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L68g6fe4PT2QSv3RNMl7
|
Will ChatGPT be easily accessible in Italy on 2024-01-01?
|
There has been an announcement about Italy banning ChatGPT
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406
Will it be enforced? Will it last?
Resolution by me asking five random Italian friends of mine, located in Italy at the time, whether they can access ChatGPT. Resolves to majority. People asked should not have/need paid access, unless that is the only way to access ChatGPT in most other place as well.
I am happy to change resolution criteria to something similar but better if somebody suggest it.
|
2023-03-31T11:27:15
|
2024-01-02T01:19:58
|
2024-01-02T01:19:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4rHTdeIAw9LEqbPjam0C
|
Will anyone profit by at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
|
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.
Simlar markets on various profit values:
M$10,000
M$15,000
M$20,000
M$30,000
M$50,000
M$75,000
M$100,000
M$150,000
M$200,000
|
2023-03-31T08:17:17
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T15:47:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JPgWcMFLG6AiHour0kte
|
Will anyone profit by at least M$500,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
|
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.
Simlar markets on various profit values:
M$10,000
M$15,000
M$20,000
M$30,000
M$50,000
M$75,000
M$100,000
M$150,000
M$200,000
|
2023-03-31T08:16:55
|
2023-05-15T22:57:53
|
2023-05-15T22:57:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hchIZF3N38YpV30wnh8f
|
Will Labour win at least 350 seats in the next UK general election?
|
Co-operative MPs are included as Labour.
|
2023-03-31T06:56:45
|
2024-07-04T22:49:20
|
2024-07-04T22:49:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YGiTGERtF0ZBtteHobOn
|
Will Labour win at least 300 seats in the next UK general election?
|
Co-operative MPs are included as Labour.
|
2023-03-31T06:56:09
|
2024-07-04T22:48:33
|
2024-07-04T22:48:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qyGL0LZISD9g2DneAa8D
|
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before 2027?
|
This resolves YES if he is found guilty of a crime before January 1, 2027
|
2023-03-31T06:18:05
|
2024-05-30T15:21:36
|
2024-05-30T15:21:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vBSztdtpz0pt3Q6xzYO9
|
Will a human walk on the moon by the end of 2024
|
Resolves YES if a human steps foot on the moon (they can wear a space suit) between market creation and end of year 2024.
|
2023-03-30T23:44:50
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-25T21:06:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rktSk9CnO2r0WF4ZqFMD
|
Will Trump be indicted again? (2023)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-30T21:49:10
|
2023-06-14T15:27:56
|
2023-06-14T15:27:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rh7X9k10IG7pgctfBXCo
|
Will Trump win the black vote?
|
YES if NYT declares his indictment boosted his black vote share (and it increases)
|
2023-03-30T21:04:38
|
2024-11-10T21:59:00
|
2024-11-15T23:00:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SI19wtFDgBbpWXaO2J3l
|
Will a jury convict Trump?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-30T21:01:02
|
2024-05-31T07:20:02
|
2024-05-31T07:20:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EF8yuzuIZKQHWLouJa9W
|
Will Trump be indicted again?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-30T18:16:56
|
2023-06-14T15:28:21
|
2023-06-14T15:28:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zPnAiiGtzpAtP9LnSv4a
|
Will Biden pardon Trump
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-30T18:07:39
|
2025-01-20T10:21:26
|
2025-01-20T10:21:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fiF2whqzeGjCcMAMeYOm
|
Will the Lunar Society podcast have more subscribers than the Lex Fridman podcast on youtube by July 2024?
|
Gigachad Manifold traders buy Patel and short Fridman. Lunar society is going to the moon!
|
2023-03-30T18:05:12
|
2024-07-31T16:59:00
|
2024-08-04T11:33:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3NpmIzgng6tfkGGmFqpK
|
Will Destiny talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky on stream before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-30T17:07:55
|
2023-09-24T04:25:11
|
2023-09-24T04:25:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Mi3zqJQJlu9Fld8WQVGQ
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Making Sense podcast with Sam Harris again by the end of 2024?
|
https://www.samharris.org/podcasts
Yudkowsky first appeared on Sam Harris's podcast on episode #116 in 2018.
If he goes on another episode before 2025, this market will resolve to YES.
|
2023-03-30T17:02:38
|
2025-01-01T00:44:04
|
2025-01-01T00:44:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QhPyTsDfmLZHfJ1IHolc
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky give an official TED talk before 2024?
|
A TEDx talk will not count for the purposes of this market.
|
2023-03-30T16:28:10
|
2023-04-22T11:57:07
|
2023-04-22T11:57:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UmB7uQLKa3QZlVrD6Tlz
|
Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?
|
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15656/new-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern-before-2024/
On 15/16 March 2023, the WHO updated its tracking system and working definitions for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern to take to account for the dominance and variance of the Omicron variant and its sublineages. The new definitions mean that Omicron sublineages will be considered independently as Variants under Monitoring, Variants of Interest, or Variants of Concern. As a result of these changes, the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 was classified as a Variant of Interest.
The emergence of new variants has been associated with COVID-19 case and hospitalization surges, and with the efficacy of treatments and vaccinations.
|
2023-03-30T15:35:56
|
2023-12-31T09:00:00
|
2024-01-01T07:43:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-erDCPnssu9MiSsebr20i
|
Will Trump flee the country in 2023?
|
If Trump leaves the U.S., plausibly to avoid arrest, this market will resolve YES.
|
2023-03-30T15:20:49
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:25:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9XRMCYVHxv8LyDjysNB3
|
Will Destiny have a sexual relationship with another mentally ill women in 2023 that leads to more drama?
|
"more drama" would mean a decent focus on the issue and a "good" amount of buzz.
UPDATE: The resolution of YES has been decided due to the “itschaeiry” 15/2 incident.
|
2023-03-30T13:38:27
|
2023-11-13T17:38:08
|
2023-11-13T17:38:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rnE707fYvYYVnWeyfNVo
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky have at least 200,000 followers on Twitter by the end of 2024?
|
https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/esyudkowsky
|
2023-03-30T09:58:47
|
2024-12-31T21:00:00
|
2025-01-02T12:27:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PCfQvu1NUPoQKL74mLES
|
Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?
|
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15641/civil-war-in-israel-before-2024/ In early 2023, mass protests and strikes erupted in Israel over the government's plans to strip power from judges. The [reforms](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65086871) would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional. In late March 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a [temporary pause]( https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/27/israel-netanyahu-judicial-reform-delay-halt/11548416002/) to the judicial changes, leading to a divided response. The larger opposition parties cautiously welcomed the decision, while leaders of the street demonstrations denounced it as a temporary freeze. As the [Financial Times reported on March 28:](https://www.ft.com/content/9e33f942-6125-428c-8a7a-a2dcf85a300e) > Benjamin Netanyahu bowed to public pressure on Monday and delayed the contentious judicial reform he and his extremist partners have championed. With Israel paralysed by mass protests and strikes, he acknowledged the risk of civil war. The crisis is not over, however. The Israeli prime minister’s language made clear he intends his decision as a tactical pause to quiet the civil disobedience. Netanyahu is buying time.
|
2023-03-30T09:22:27
|
2023-12-31T04:00:00
|
2024-01-01T07:43:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D9wfs3Dg33vOyFSZj9gc
|
Will OpenAI publish a response to the FLI open letter before the end of April?
|
https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
Must be an official OpenAI response, not just a tweet from Sam Altman.
|
2023-03-30T09:04:44
|
2023-04-30T21:00:00
|
2023-05-06T19:28:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y33bAsNQFKOpmaO6EBVW
|
Will any 2024 US presidential debate mention a strict ban on AI process such as that advocated for by Eliezer Yudkowsky?
|
https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
|
2023-03-30T09:01:15
|
2024-12-31T21:00:00
|
2025-01-01T16:29:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0L9lBTamWTEQbLaFgqat
|
Will CGPgrey hit 1B views before the end of the year?
|
Siting at 912M views as of March 30
|
2023-03-30T08:50:27
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:57:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oFpjCSNLSQv1GDBNmKHD
|
Will any CGP Grey video surpass "The Simple Solution to Traffic" as their most popular video by the end of 2024?
|
https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos
|
2023-03-30T06:43:22
|
2024-12-31T21:00:00
|
2025-01-02T18:46:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TkXAZyIztqIbGdxvlPqR
|
Will any CGP Grey market get at least 200 traders by the end of 2023?
|
(Other than the first one that already did.)
Refers to markets about CGP Grey, not markets created by CGP Grey.
|
2023-03-30T06:37:49
|
2023-12-31T21:00:00
|
2024-01-04T11:58:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kQlebfpaUwO01pWkJzOs
|
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
|
"Very famous" = Has at least 10 million followers on Twitter (adjusted for deflation in the event of a loss of popularity of Twitter), or they're otherwise famous enough that if they were to create a public Twitter account they would almost certainly get that number with ease.
The claim doesn't have to be made on Twitter. It does need to appear genuine and unironic. They don't need to actually follow through on it, but it does need to clearly be a "decision" and not a "hmm, I wonder if I should do this".
Important life decisions include who to date, where to live, what career to be in, etc.
In the event that this has already happened in the past, I reserve the right to change the market criteria to something in the same vein that's a bit more exclusive, so that the previous event doesn't qualify.
|
2023-03-30T06:20:34
|
2023-12-31T21:00:00
|
2024-01-02T16:13:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VIs7Y36m8CL1rURNx6Jv
|
Will Yudkowsky appear on Fox or CNN in 2023?
|
Must be an interview - either live or produced for the show.
Mar 30, 4:05pm: Will yudkowsky appear on fox or CNN in 2023? → Will yudkowsky appear on Fox or CNN in 2023?
|
2023-03-30T04:15:32
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T08:46:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bynv2bZfRuolkDkQDX17
|
Will Midjourney be acquired by Alphabet (GOOGL) before July 1, 2023?
|
As the AI battle is intensifying, will Google decide to acquire the popular image generation tool Midjourney - that already has 6M users and currently leaving DALL-E and Stable Diffusion behind - to establish supremacy in the field, instead of launching its own image gen tool?
[image]Mar 31, 7:34pm: Will Midjourney be acquired by Alphabet (Google) before July 1, 2023? → Will Midjourney be acquired by Alphabet (GOOGL) before July 1, 2023?
|
2023-03-30T03:48:17
|
2023-06-30T08:59:00
|
2023-06-30T09:23:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jY5J3eFOguSZuuKwTKMX
|
Will Putin visit Turkey during April?
|
Possibility he will be attending opening of a Russian built nuclear power plant.
|
2023-03-30T00:21:44
|
2023-04-30T20:59:00
|
2023-04-30T21:36:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mbCC6h0DFCSVxJjhY5yh
|
Will "Yuddite" become the established term for people who want to slow down/stop AI capabilities before 2024?
|
After this article dropped:
https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
I started seeing a bunch of people start using the term "Yuddite." Will this become the established epithet used to describe people who want to slow down/stop AI capabilities before this year is out? If so this market resolves YES.
|
2023-03-29T23:30:08
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:58:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1IHj91s6jwUlCBfIUGK4
|
Will Trump tweet by Nov 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-29T22:14:51
|
2023-09-01T15:37:34
|
2023-09-01T15:37:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DjYRMIQ0iYu4CcZ8hd4v
|
Will we reach AGI by the End of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-29T22:06:03
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:16:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wPxQHpsGsLCxnoqiHIjZ
|
Will Cillian Murphy receive the Oscar for Best Actor for his role in Oppenheimer?
|
This market will resolve YES if Cillian Murphy receives the Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role during the year that 'Oppenheimer' is eligible for the Academy Awards. If he does not receive the award, or if 'Oppenheimer' is not eligible for Academy Awards by 2026, this market will resolve NO.
|
2023-03-29T20:50:14
|
2024-03-10T19:02:35
|
2024-03-10T19:02:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v8E3l0ocbBl1PegmFg5r
|
Will Jared Kushner be indicted for any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if Jared Kushner is indicted for any crime by the end of 2023. Does not need to be related to the time he spent working for his father-in-law.
|
2023-03-29T19:06:58
|
2023-12-31T20:08:47
|
2023-12-31T20:08:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d27ymnY64xbY93O6LPDL
|
Will Donald Trump be formally exonerated of any crimes for which there is currently a grand jury by end of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if any prosector or special counsel currently investigating Trump with an open grand jury closes said grand jury and issues a report stating that the grand jury voted against indicting him. This would mean the prosecutor didn't mean the low bar of "probable cause" to suspect a crime was committed. Grand juries also need not be unanimous, but require only a supramajority in most jurisdictions, so by declining to indict a grand jury would effectively be exonerating Trump.
|
2023-03-29T19:04:15
|
2023-09-08T12:27:58
|
2023-09-08T12:27:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tWfKiLQ1vFIliuEz2Gmp
|
Will Destiny sue Lav?
|
[tweet][tweet](https://www.youtube.com/embed/mYwtUnpOElo?t=1466)(https://www.youtube.com/embed/EdhEHJJ0k-Q?t=381)[markets]
|
2023-03-29T16:14:00
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:13:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kYRQKmYjBiFYdqqCncVb
|
Will any group develop a GPT-4 competitor of comparable capability (text) by Oct. 2023
|
"comparable capability" refers to the text performance only, to keep it simple (the hardest part of making GPT-4 is the language model anyway). To be comparable the performance should be equal or extremely close across a wide range of benchmarks (e.g. MMLU, HumanEval, WinoGrande) and tests (e.g. SAT). It should also have at least 8k context length (chosen since GPT-4 has 8k and 32k context length versions).
Of course, to qualify as YES, the group that develops a competitor must publicly announce that they trained an LLM with the benchmark results.
|
2023-03-29T15:16:17
|
2023-09-30T15:59:00
|
2023-09-30T16:38:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ok1r2LXLdNYDvKjey0jT
|
🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to Make Significantly Better, "Common Sense Judgements About What Happens Next," by End of 2023?
|
Preface:
Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.
Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme
[image]Market Description:
Resolved by submissions at:
https://leaderboard.allenai.org/visualcomet/submissions/public
Visual Comet
This leaderboard collects evaluations of current AI systems on Visual commonsense tasks that measure both the knowledge that these systems possess as well as their ability to reason with and use that knowledge in context of an event in an image.
Even from a single frame of a still image, people can reason about the dynamic story of the image before, after, and beyond the frame. For example, given an image of a man struggling to stay afloat in water, we can reason that the man fell into the water sometime in the past, the intent of that man at the moment is to stay alive, and he will need help in the near future or else he will get washed away.
An example input question contains the following fields in JSON format:
{
"img_fn": "lsmdc_3005_ABRAHAM_LINCOLN_VAMPIRE_HUNTER/3005_ABRAHAM_LINCOLN_VAMPIRE_HUNTER_00.27.43.141-00.27.45.534@0.jpg",
"movie": "3005_ABRAHAM_LINCOLN_VAMPIRE_HUNTER",
"metadata_fn": "lsmdc_3005_ABRAHAM_LINCOLN_VAMPIRE_HUNTER/3005_ABRAHAM_LINCOLN_VAMPIRE_HUNTER_00.27.43.141-00.27.45.534@0.json",
"place": "at a fancy party",
"event": "1 is trying to talk to the pretty woman in front of him"
}
Example sets of images (not necessarily related to the above)
[image][image]Market Resolution Threshold:
[image]Note, at the time of authoring this, human performance is 0.5
Top leftmost score, BLEU 1 is 0.3500 at time of authoring. We would need to see 1.3*0.3500 or >=0.4550 by the end of the year for this market to resolve as YES, otherwise this resolves NO.
Score to Beat -> 0.4550
|
2023-03-29T14:42:41
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-08T05:16:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2jIFr6NH2ySE6EyzLSwx
|
🐕 Will A.I. Be Significantly Better, "Able to Track Changes in State," By the End of 2023?
|
Warning! This market may already be doomed, as the threshold picked is higher than human performance. However I don't know for sure, just letting you know before you bet. Here's one that's set at slightly below human performance:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PatrickDelaney/will-ai-be-able-to-meet-just-below)Preface / Inspiration:
There are a lot of questions on Manifold about whether or not we'll see sentience, general A.I., and a lot of other nonsense and faith-based questions which rely on the market maker's interpretation and often close at some far distant point in the future when a lot of us will be dead. This is an effort to create meaningful bets on important A.I. questions which are referenced by a third party.
Market Description
ProPara
ProPara aims to promote the research in natural language understanding in the context of procedural text. This requires identifying the actions described in the paragraph and tracking state changes happening to the entities involved.
Example Question
Given this five-sentence procedural paragraph (id 1167 from the training partition):
① The gravity of the sun pulls its mass inward. ② There is a lot of pressure on the Sun. ③ The pressure forces atoms of hydrogen to fuse together in nuclear reactions. ④ The energy from the reactions gives off different kinds of light. ⑤ The light travels to the Earth.
Consider the two participant entities:
atoms of hydrogen
sunlight or light
Predict answers to these four questions:
What are the Inputs?
That is, which participants existed before the procedure began, and don't exist after the procedure ended? Or, what participants were consumed?
Answer: The inputs are atoms of hydrogen.
What are the Outputs?
That is, which participants existed after the procedure ended, but didn't exist before the procedure began? Or, what participants were produced?
Answer: The outputs are light (or sunlight).
What are the Conversions?
That is, which participants were converted to which other participants?
Answer: The participant atoms of hydrogen is converted into light (or sunlight) in sentence 3.
What are the Moves?
That is, which participants moved from one location to another?
Answer: The participant light (or sunlight) moves from sun to earth in sentence 5.
Market Resolution Criteria
https://leaderboard.allenai.org/propara/submissions/public
Top score on F1 is 0.731.
We would need to see 1.3*0.731 or greater by the end of the year for this to resolve YES, otherwise NO.
Please see markets embedded for how I will format this description in the future to try to make it more clear and provide more information.
|
2023-03-29T14:33:26
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-09T15:58:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YGNFGE77WP8ZrxAPP9Pe
|
SpaceX Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy rocket suffers an anomaly in 2023 that results in loss of payload
|
YES -- Falcon anomaly in 2023 (including prelaunch anomalies, excluding landing failures) followed by the payload not getting to the target orbit. Partial failures (when some payload is delivered and some isn't) do not count.
NO otherwise
|
2023-03-29T13:20:42
|
2023-12-30T19:01:01
|
2023-12-30T19:01:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E7Fz8AJNwyOEjn3ADhPy
|
Will the S&P close higher on March 30th than it closed on March 29th?
|
Closes at 3pm. Resolves at 4pm.
|
2023-03-29T13:02:59
|
2023-03-30T12:00:00
|
2023-03-30T13:05:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LfKYZQS4cuGVtAEBj52D
|
Will the movie Oppenheimer (2023) get higher than a 79% overall critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes by July 22st 2023?
|
Will resolve based on the Rotten Tomatoes "Tomatometer" score for the critic rating here: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/oppenheimer_2023
I'm including the trailer link:
https://youtu.be/bK6ldnjE3Y0
(If the movie doesn't get released on July 21st, I will extend it as needed.)
|
2023-03-29T12:19:49
|
2023-07-22T20:59:00
|
2023-07-22T21:30:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8TN59TJkzH5qTVnwA3h3
|
Will Pope Francis die before the end of 2023?
|
Resolves to yes if Pope Francis dies before December 31st, 13:59:59 Vatican local time.
|
2023-03-29T12:17:21
|
2023-12-31T06:36:09
|
2023-12-31T06:36:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FNsTr5Ciuv3zoIm5icGj
|
Will CGP Grey upload any videos in 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-29T10:17:12
|
2025-02-17T13:01:31
|
2025-02-17T13:01:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JmbvrNvZiHWZIBrrlIrO
|
Will CGP Grey upload any videos in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-29T10:16:37
|
2024-10-30T21:22:10
|
2024-10-30T21:22:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ka3ADk0gihMBJCE8sBPs
|
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025?
|
"Consumer hardware" is defined as costing no more than $3,000 USD for everything that goes inside the case (not including peripherals).
In terms of "GPT4-equivalent model," I'll go with whatever popular consensus seems to indicate the top benchmarks (up to three) are regarding performance. The performance metrics should be within 10% of GPT4's. In the absence of suitable benchmarks I'll make an educated guess come resolution time after consulting educated experts on the subject.
All that's necessary is for the model to run inference, and it doesn't matter how long it takes to generate output so long as you can type in a prompt and get a reply in less than 24 hours. So in the case GPT4's weights are released and someone is able to shrink that model down to run on consumer hardware and get any output at all in less than a day, and the performance of the output meets benchmarks, and it's not 2025 yet, this market resolves YES.
|
2023-03-29T09:51:44
|
2024-05-28T16:41:31
|
2024-05-28T16:41:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5pT11JjoD46zOoW2OgOR
|
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024?
|
"Consumer hardware" is defined as costing no more than $3,000 USD for everything that goes inside the case (not including peripherals).
In terms of "GPT4-equivalent model," I'll go with whatever popular consensus seems to indicate the top benchmarks (up to three) are regarding performance. The performance metrics should be within 10% of GPT4's. In the absence of suitable benchmarks I'll make an educated guess come resolution time after consulting educated experts on the subject.
All that's necessary is for the model to run inference, and it doesn't matter how long it takes to generate output so long as you can type in a prompt and get a reply in less than 24 hours. So in the case GPT4's weights are released and someone is able to shrink that model down to run on consumer hardware and get any output at all in less than a day, and the performance of the output meets benchmarks, and it's not 2024 yet, this market resolves YES.
|
2023-03-29T09:51:28
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-05T23:04:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-euXMfxgamtEd36UeAeFK
|
🐕 Will A.I. Get, "Scarily Better at Helping To Resolve Shipping Supply Chain Issues," by the End of 2023? (HuggingFace)
|
Preface:
Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.
Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme
[image]Market Description
Supply chain and its effect on inflation have been major news and conversational topics since around 2021, so it's quite natural to wonder how A.I. may help humans with our physical supply chain issues.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F019h6j,%2Fm%2F09jx2&hl=en
[image]80% of the world's cargo is transported by ocean. Congested ports can become a massive problem because they disrupt supply chains. Port congestion means that ships arrive at the port and cannot load or unload, as the terminal is already full. So, they can only queue up and wait for their turn to get a spot at the port.
This leaderboard challenge by Hugging Face Spaces attempted to help address the problem in one narrow way: https://huggingface.co/spaces/competitions/ship-detection
[image]Market Resolution Criteria
Will the public leaderboard for the above challenge, https://huggingface.co/spaces/competitions/ship-detection have a score which is greater than 0.98 on the public leaderboard at the time of authoring this market?
At the time of authoring this market, the greatest score, which can be found by navigating to, "Leaderboard" in the above list is:
rank 1, name eugene123tw, public score 0.9204, date 2023-03-22 15:10:19
Note, the stated score notation is mAP, which can be read about here: https://datascience.stackexchange.com/questions/16797/what-does-the-notation-map-5-95-mean
If a score registers at or above 0.98, this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.
Mar 30, 2:00pm: Will A.I. Get, "Scarily Better at Helping To Resolve Shipping Supply Chain Issues," by the End of 2024? → Will A.I. Get, "Scarily Better at Helping To Resolve Shipping Supply Chain Issues," by the End of 2024? (Re:HuggingFace)
|
2023-03-29T09:07:22
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-08T05:17:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f7WUHGBIFnJFyGzKY3Qz
|
Will Donald Trump be arrested by the end of April?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-29T07:55:53
|
2023-04-12T14:55:15
|
2023-04-12T14:55:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lwU5cMHjqCuhHdZjUuZK
|
Will experts find the trig-based “proof” of the Pythagorean Theorem by high schoolers legit?
|
There's some media reporting that two high school students, Calcea Johnson and NeKiya Jackson, have proven the Pythagorean Theorem using the Law of Sines, the first proof using trig without using circular reasoning. (https://www.insider.com/us-teens-claim-to-have-proved-pythagorean-theorem-thought-impossible-2023-3?amp) Apparently such a feat was thought impossible; The Pythagorean Proposition by Elisha Loomis says that “There are no trigonometric proofs, because all the fundamental formulae of trigonometry are themselves based upon the truth of the Pythagorean Theorem.”
They've presented their proof at the American Mathematical Society, who suggest they submit it to a journal. The proof hasn't been verified by experts, nor did I have success finding it online to check myself.
Resolves to the consensus among the expert mathematics community in three months (June 29, 6pm PT) about whether this proof is essentially valid, trig-based, and free from circular logic. Can still resolve YES if it has an easily fixable flaw. If there's no clear consensus in the math community, I'll resolve to 25%, 50%, or 75% based on the approximate split.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Mar 29, 8:01am: Will experts find the non-circular trig “proof” of the Pythagorean Theorem by high schoolers legit? → Will experts find the trig-based “proof” of the Pythagorean Theorem by high schoolers legit?
|
2023-03-29T07:50:53
|
2023-06-29T18:00:00
|
2023-06-29T18:08:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xM4nmV4tM6DXYcN1HJVf
|
Will Rational Animations reach 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025?
|
https://www.youtube.com/RationalAnimations
|
2023-03-29T06:51:27
|
2025-01-01T01:27:51
|
2025-01-01T01:27:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Jz13Hg6LnSKi4IRNoTcK
|
Will CGP Grey release a new video by the end of April?
|
Must be on https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey.
|
2023-03-29T05:55:52
|
2023-04-02T15:19:13
|
2023-04-02T15:19:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NGYSjJ95SEq605QTsWPW
|
Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views before the end of June?
|
https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/cgpgrey
|
2023-03-29T05:51:35
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00
|
2023-07-30T23:16:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SdeYmtMdLM3hbPlG8vmE
|
Will CGP Grey release a new video by the end of May?
|
Must be on https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey.
|
2023-03-29T05:47:48
|
2023-04-02T15:18:40
|
2023-04-02T15:18:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PW8NTEggOlaQB1Y72YPa
|
Will it be verified that Sam Altman signed the AI moratorium open letter before April 5th, 2023?
|
A recent open letter called for a moratorium on the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) systems, highlighting the potential risks to society and humanity. The letter urged all AI labs to pause the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, for at least 6 months. It also called for shared safety protocols and improved AI governance. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, is a prominent figure in the AI community and his support for the open letter could influence its impact and reception.
Before April 5th, 2023, will it be verified that Sam Altman signed the recent open letter calling for a moratorium on the development of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 (including GPT-5)?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if, before April 5th, 2023, credible news sources, official statements, or other verifiable evidence confirm that Sam Altman has signed the open letter, meeting the following criteria:
Verification of Signature: There must be clear and convincing evidence that Sam Altman himself has signed the open letter. This evidence may include, but is not limited to:
a. A public statement from Sam Altman, either written or spoken, in which he confirms that he has signed the open letter.
b. An official statement from OpenAI or its representatives confirming Sam Altman's signature on the open letter.
c. A credible news source reporting on Sam Altman's signature, with sufficient details to ascertain the validity of the claim, such as quotes from Altman or his representatives.
d. A public update to the open letter, such as a revised version or an addendum, that includes Sam Altman's name, along with accompanying evidence as outlined in points (a), (b), or (c) to verify the authenticity of his signature.
Unambiguous Support: Sam Altman's signature on the open letter must signify his agreement with its content and the call for a moratorium on the development of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5.
If credible news sources, official statements, or other verifiable evidence confirm that Sam Altman has signed the open letter meeting the above criteria before April 5th 2023, the question will resolve positively. If no such evidence is provided by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.
|
2023-03-28T20:48:06
|
2023-04-05T00:01:00
|
2023-04-05T11:15:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rNKd6Mu8qBxzKBT5HApL
|
Will the Super Mario Bros. Movie have at least a 70% on Rotten Tomatoes after April 10th?
|
Resolves to yes if the Super Mario movie has a 70% or greater critic's score on Rotten Tomatos by the end of April 10th 2023, PDT (five days after the movie's premiere).
|
2023-03-28T19:17:03
|
2023-04-08T00:00:00
|
2023-04-10T19:04:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ci2EBTMqWxftttXM9mPg
|
Will FLI's "Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter" result in a successful 6+ month pause of training powerful AIs?
|
The Letter: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
[image][image][image]
|
2023-03-28T18:51:37
|
2023-09-30T16:59:00
|
2023-10-04T16:25:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7DmdFfVuuBK60tQJVij5
|
Video-Game AGI by 2025
|
An AI that can play any video game at human level on consumer hardware (and human-levels of sample efficiency in learning new games)
|
2023-03-28T18:41:09
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-02T16:55:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-098NwlTXw3BFk7yXBlVU
|
Will the RESTRICT Act be passed? (TikTok)
|
Resolves YES if the bill becomes a law.
"A bipartisan group of senators introduced a sweeping bill Tuesday that would allow the federal government to regulate and even ban foreign-produced technology, including TikTok.
The bill, the Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology Act, or RESTRICT Act, would give the secretary of commerce broad power to regulate tech produced by six countries that have adversarial relationships with the U.S.: China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia and Venezuela.
The White House endorsed the RESTRICT Act on Tuesday, calling it 'a systematic framework for addressing technology-based threats to the security and safety of Americans.'"
- NBC https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/restrict-act-bill-tiktok-rcna73682
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/686/text?s=1&r=15
https://www.natlawreview.com/article/restrict-act-potential-new-enforcement-tool-to-address-economic-and-national
Mar 28, 6:39pm: Will the RESTRICT Act pass? → Will the RESTRICT Act pass? (TikTok)
Mar 28, 6:40pm: Will the RESTRICT Act pass? (TikTok) → Will the RESTRICT Act be passed? (TikTok)
|
2023-03-28T15:32:23
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T21:37:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7RQeXdYL9YSuVxQ2NBfG
|
Will Trump be indicted during April?
|
Resolves YES if Trump is indicted in any jurisdiction during the month of April 2023. This market is about the timing of the grand jury vote irregardless of whether sealed or not. So the NYC indictment won't count for April because the grand jury voted to indict in March.
|
2023-03-28T13:59:04
|
2023-04-30T20:59:00
|
2023-04-30T21:37:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-49NATO01Uwl2kt4bjd7Q
|
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the NL Central Division?
|
Resolves YES if the Reds finish the regular season in at least a tie for first place.
|
2023-03-28T12:46:43
|
2023-10-01T20:59:00
|
2023-10-02T12:34:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VD3AK7Hhh9kqnPUf0UrK
|
Will the St Louis Cardinals win the NL Central Division?
|
Resolves YES if the Cardinals finish the regular season in at least a tie for first place.
|
2023-03-28T12:46:14
|
2023-10-01T20:59:00
|
2023-10-02T12:35:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gxfxtmx4VfJBWiceW2KG
|
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central Division?
|
Resolves YES if the Brewers finish the regular season in at least a tie for first place.
|
2023-03-28T12:45:35
|
2023-10-01T20:59:00
|
2023-10-02T12:35:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CtqBPIDKELMCOlv6W2Gk
|
Will the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central Division?
|
Resolves YES if the Cubs finish the regular season in at least a tie for first place.
|
2023-03-28T12:44:51
|
2023-10-01T20:59:00
|
2023-10-02T12:35:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aHjcaCxaUR8Y1rM4lQdm
|
Will any top AI lab commit to a moratorium on giant AI experiments before 2024?
|
A recent open letter called for a moratorium on the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) systems, highlighting the potential risks to society and humanity. The letter urged all AI labs to pause the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, for at least 6 months. It also called for shared safety protocols and improved AI governance. The letter suggested that if the AI labs do not enact a pause voluntarily, governments should step in and institute a moratorium.
Before January 1st, 2024, will any of the top AI labs or governments commit to a moratorium on the development of AI systems beyond a certain capability level?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2024, credible news sources, official statements, or legal documents confirm that at least one of the top AI labs or governments has committed to a moratorium on the development of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, meeting all of the following criteria:
AI Lab or Government Commitment: The commitment must come from a top AI lab or a government with jurisdiction over such labs. A top AI lab is defined as an organization primarily focused on AI research and development that has been publicly and credibly documented to have met at least two of the following criteria:
a. Has published more than 50 AI research papers in peer-reviewed conferences or journals in the last five years.
b. Has received more than $100 million in funding dedicated to AI research and development within the last 2 years.
c. Is widely recognized by experts in the AI field as a major contributor to AI advancements, as indicated by at least three notable statements from three separate AI researchers with an h-index of at least 80 according to Google Scholar Metrics.
The commitment must be publicly announced, verifiable, and explicitly mention the intent to halt the development of AI systems beyond a certain capability level that is within reach of current efforts.
Duration of Moratorium: The moratorium must last for at least 6 months, with a specific start date mentioned in the commitment.
Safety Protocols and Governance: The commitment must include plans to use the moratorium period to jointly develop and implement a set of shared safety protocols for advanced AI design and development, as well as work towards the establishment of robust AI governance systems. This may involve collaborations with other AI labs, independent experts, or governments.
If credible news sources, official statements, or legal documents confirm that at least one of the top AI labs or governments has committed to a moratorium meeting all of the above criteria before January 1st, 2024, the question will resolve positively. If no such commitment is made by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.
Note: This question focuses on the commitment to a moratorium, not the actual implementation or enforcement of the moratorium or the development of safety protocols and governance systems. Additionally, the question is not concerned with the potential impact of the moratorium on AI research, technological progress, or society at large.
|
2023-03-28T11:27:40
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:44:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R42WMDXovWMYeYJ4oRxC
|
Will Summoning Salt reach 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025?
|
https://www.youtube.com/@SummoningSalt
|
2023-03-28T11:01:25
|
2025-01-01T01:08:26
|
2025-01-01T01:08:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HaO7AyuKvqZQ1j8Mu17x
|
(M1000 subsidy!) Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (in April)
|
This market predicts whether GPT-4 will be able to solve an "easy" Sudoku puzzle before May 1, 2023.
Based on @/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to . The criteria here are the same, just with a shorter timeframe.
Resolves YES if:
A fixed prompt is found that enables GPT-4 to reliably solve freshly-generated easy-rated Sudoku puzzles from any reputable Sudoku site, using only its language modeling capabilities and context as memory.
Resolves 50% if:
A fixed prompt is found that enables GPT-4 to occasionally solve Sudoku puzzles.
Resolves NO if:
No fixed prompt that enables GPT-4 to even occasionally solve easy-rated Sudoku puzzles using the specified conditions by the deadline.
Resolves as NA if:
The market creator retains the right to mark this market as NA or to modify the rules within the first week for any reason or no reason. Otherwise, this market does not resolve NA.
Definitions:
GPT-4 refers to either ChatGPT's GPT-4, or any model using the OpenAI Chat Completions API. "gpt-4" and "gpt-4-32k" are currently-known model ids, but anything labeled GPT-4 would count including the upcoming image support.
Easy-rated Sudoku puzzle means a puzzle classified as easy by any reputable Sudoku site or puzzle generator. A newspaper that regularly publishes Sudokus would be a great candidate. The puzzles cannot be trivial, and publication for humans is intended to reject trivial puzzles. If there's a dispute about whether a puzzle generator gives trivial puzzles, I will hold a poll.
Fixed-prompt means that everything except the Sudoku puzzle provided to GPT-4 remains the same. The user may provide GPT-4 with instructions, but these instructions must not change for each puzzle. A solution must be found within 50 turns. So a prompt encoding an exponential-sized backtracking algorithm would not be a solution, but one that encourages ChatGPT to try simple logical constraints would likely work. Multimodal support is allowed to be used. The human cannot give information to GPT-4 beyond the initial puzzle, so their inputs must be static. (e.g. just saying "continue" if ChatGPT runs out of output space and stops).
Language modeling capabilities means that GPT-4 is not allowed to use any external tools, plugins, or resources to aid in solving the Sudoku puzzle. It must rely solely on its language modeling capabilities and the context provided within the prompt.
Reliably means the prompt succeeds at least 80% of the time, on freshly-generated puzzles.
Occasionally means the prompt succeeds at least 20% of the time, on freshly-generated puzzles.
Terms can be adjusted within one week after market creation. After that, terms can only be refined to have narrower meanings or to have additional examples added.
Example Sudoku puzzles
From Sudoku - New York Times Number Puzzles - The New York Times (nytimes.com) on March 28. 2023, "Easy"
21....487
8..3.2.91
9.5.71...
..759.61.
56...3..2
4.16..7..
.39..7...
7..1...26
1...65..9
Solution:
213956487
876342591
945871263
327594618
568713942
491628735
639287154
754139826
182465379
|
2023-03-28T10:12:26
|
2023-04-30T23:59:00
|
2023-05-04T13:41:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q56FqeI6ibnELfudQilx
|
Will Destiny and Aella both publicly claim to have had sex with each other before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-28T10:11:22
|
2023-12-31T15:02:03
|
2023-12-31T15:02:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b3NsNbKnjmLLBpcywBO4
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the 4th of July?
|
Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on July 4th 2023. I will wait a couple days afterwards in order to make sure there isnt any news after the fact.
|
2023-03-28T07:50:42
|
2023-07-04T16:59:00
|
2023-07-04T19:24:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MrHZkwvKzZKTIPMMfE69
|
Will CGP Grey make a video about prediction markets before the end of 2024?
|
https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos
Prediction markets, a specific prediction market, or something related to prediction markets must be a main subject of the video, not just an offhand reference.
See also @/IsaacKing/will-cgp-grey-make-a-video-that-men
|
2023-03-28T06:20:21
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00
|
2025-01-01T16:33:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dcBFMwpQlWdrN5IGBHzw
|
Will CGP Grey release a new video by the end of May?
|
Must be on https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey.
|
2023-03-28T06:02:11
|
2023-03-29T05:46:51
|
2023-03-29T05:46:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-upM6WcuwygkwUmy3aQfd
|
Will it be confirmed that the Nashville Covenant School shooter is a trans woman?
|
[tweet]
|
2023-03-28T01:04:12
|
2023-05-01T13:29:38
|
2023-05-01T13:29:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vueagCrY1x1dI5bDugMr
|
Will non-verified users be able to vote in Twitter polls on 30 September 2023?
|
Elon Musk announced that:
"Starting April 15th, only verified accounts will be eligible to be in For You recommendations.
The is the only realistic way to address advanced AI bot swarms taking over. It is otherwise a hopeless losing battle.
Voting in polls will require verification for same reason."
Resolves as YES if normal / unverified accounts could vote without restrictions at closing time. NO otherwise.
[tweet]Inspired by this poll
[tweet]
|
2023-03-27T19:14:10
|
2023-09-30T10:04:55
|
2023-09-30T10:04:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IlUsaSFreSee3Ts42vHd
|
Will non-verified Twitter uses be able to vote in polls on September 27 2023?
|
Elon Musk has said that from 5th April 2023, only verified Twitter users will be able to vote in polls. Will this policy be in effect six months from today, on September 27 2023, or will voting be allowed again?
This resolves to YES if any non-verified user can vote in any poll on that day.
[image]
|
2023-03-27T19:14:02
|
2023-09-26T16:59:00
|
2023-09-27T17:53:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WdtAYG6HdtBqgsMle3uF
|
Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023?
|
"AI", "Sam Altman", "ChatGPT", "Anthropic", "Our new AI overlords", "Neural networks", etc. would all resolve YES.
|
2023-03-27T17:53:14
|
2023-12-06T13:27:11
|
2023-12-06T13:27:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UBWCn1rKovkxYtouOPHW
|
On April 15th, will only verified Twitter accounts show up on users's "For You" feed?
|
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972
Resolves YES if sometime on April 15th, and then thereafter, the only accounts that show up on Twitter user's "For you" feeds are verified accounts.
|
2023-03-27T17:43:25
|
2023-04-16T11:51:12
|
2023-04-16T11:51:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YM3btBx7Sy14foEzyRj1
|
Will it be confirmed that the Nashville Covenant School shooter is trans?
|
[tweet]
|
2023-03-27T15:49:47
|
2023-04-30T23:59:00
|
2023-05-30T23:42:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rZY16wxgtKEKSh0xFJSS
|
Will Destiny address the leak that he was so intimate with Lauren Southern he nearly broke up with Melina for her?
|
Can't make a reddit thread, might as well make a market about it GIGACHAD
Closes by the end of April, any direct mention/discussion by him will count as YES, someone else bringing it up and Destin dodging will not.
[image]
|
2023-03-27T14:15:09
|
2023-04-30T13:59:00
|
2023-04-30T14:06:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L8Da5E4NLIC7sAWWNoiH
|
Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?
|
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15627/russian-nukes-in-belarus-before-2024/ In late March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has [announced plans](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This would mark the first time Moscow would based nuclear arms outside Russia since the mid-1990s. Control of the arms will not be transferred to Minsk, and Putin compared the decision to the US stationing weapons in Europe. The construction of a storage facility for the weapons in Belarus is set to be completed by [July 1st](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/25/putin-says-will-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus). The decision follows a [joint statement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) from Russia and China urging that “all nuclear powers must not deploy their nuclear weapons beyond their national territories, and they must withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad.” The US Defense Department stated it does not believe Russia intends to use the weapons and has not adjusted its strategic nuclear posture in response. ***Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?*** This question resolves as **Yes** if there are credible reports that Russia has at least one operational nuclear weapon (tactical or strategic) stationed in Belarus. This includes Russian warheads on Belarusian missiles or other relevant platforms. If Belarus ceases to exist as an independent country, for example if Russia formally announces that it has annexed Belarus or similar outcomes, this question resolves ambiguously. If there are no credible reports of this happening by 2024 and this question is resolved negatively in early 2024, but such reports surface at a later point in time, this question will not re-resolve. [fine-print] Credible sources have to rely on official statements by a government (or a governmental agency), even if these announcement remain probabilistic like "have high confidence that...:. Unnamed sources do not qualify for credible sources. [/fine-print]
|
2023-03-27T12:20:31
|
2023-07-01T05:06:39
|
2023-07-01T05:06:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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