id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-zF5q02NpuXOWsZ6hWmkQ | Will Princeton University top the 2023-2024 edition of the Best Colleges Ranking from US News & World Report? | Princeton University has been ranked the #1 University in America for 14 years running. Will Princeton once again top the USNews rankings when they are released this fall?
This market will resolve to YES if Princeton University is the sole college ranked #1, or if a tie for #1 is granted and Princeton is one of the ty... | 2023-03-27T11:46:25 | 2023-09-18T15:08:03 | 2023-09-18T15:08:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SKOxubsVEYWRsqxP4sTi | Recession in 2024? | Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2024?
This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2023, so the ones that count would be:
2023 Q4 negative Q1 negative
Q1 negative Q2 negative
Q2 negative Q3 negative
Q3 negative Q4 negative
Resolving based on FRED US Real... | 2023-03-27T11:42:44 | 2024-12-19T09:49:35 | 2024-12-19T09:49:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qy1imNQ5znmdTn2x8X17 | Will Itamar Ben-Gvir get a private militia? | https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-735580
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/critics-slam-netanyahus-alleged-ok-for-national-guard-private-ben-gvir-militia/
Resolves YES if it is announced in 2023 that Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's Minister of National Security, will be personally ... | 2023-03-27T10:38:07 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T22:32:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-69ASpKLgNTSuXddKnvIA | Will Norway win Eurovision 2023? 🇳🇴 | Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023.
Resolves NO if Norway does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur.
Mar 27, 10:54am: Will Norway win the Eurovision? 🇳🇴 → Will Norway win Eurovision 2023? 🇳🇴 | 2023-03-27T07:50:44 | 2023-05-13T16:37:00 | 2023-05-13T16:37:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gpK51eVkkVuVmYIbVbSf | Will OpenAI go public before 2024? | Will the for-profit wing of OpenAI be a publicly traded stock before 1 January 2024? | 2023-03-27T07:44:41 | 2024-01-01T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T17:27:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nEHPinG4aZNOCYPODcej | Will Primož Roglič win the Giro d'Italia 2023? | https://www.giroditalia.it/en/ | 2023-03-27T07:44:17 | 2023-05-28T10:59:00 | 2023-05-28T13:12:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-itqXCTmqfGTcO8VBxX5R | Will Netanyahu remain Israel's PM until the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if Netanyahu continues to be Israel's PM for the rest of 2023, NO if Netanyahu ceases to be PM in 2023.
Context: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/27/angry-protests-strikes-paralyse-israel-as-netanyahu-resists-pausing-widely-hated-judicial-reforms.html | 2023-03-27T07:18:30 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:12:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pR2JmjmNuPABo9bZBTLf | UNICEF ambassador Orlando Bloom meets President Zelensky in Kyiv. Will another Hollywood celebrity do the same in 2023? | [tweet] | 2023-03-27T04:57:07 | 2023-12-17T19:40:24 | 2023-12-17T19:40:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-maNDhrhemv0KzNuqweWv | Will Trump be indicted this week? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-27T02:58:55 | 2023-03-30T15:57:11 | 2023-03-30T15:57:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kZqcE0M8Y959rZdJWVq7 | Will Israel have an election before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-26T18:41:36 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-05T16:55:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r77gYRtf9vgp3najUo4K | New film in the Terminator film franchise officially announced by end of 2023? | Primary criteria will be assessing whether a new entry appears here in the standard formatting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminator_(franchise)#Films
Note: the announced film does not need to formally have the word "Terminator" in the title. A movie titled simple "Skynet" or "Cyberdine Systems" or similar would ... | 2023-03-26T16:24:58 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:17:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hmol3BIRh9COlYb5CMs7 | Will the US ban TikTok in 2023? | Resolves according to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14062/tiktok-ban-in-us-before-2024/:
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American can do none of the following [edited to clearer languag... | 2023-03-26T14:29:50 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:07:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m3dIHetLBc7tfg5AuXiI | WILL XQC BEAT FORSENS TIME BY APRIL | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-26T14:25:06 | 2023-04-01T16:59:00 | 2023-04-03T21:03:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DsfZ3ytpQ0slLVey9153 | Will the TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024? | From https://metaculus.com//questions/15625/tiktok-us-sold-by-2024/ In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/1... | 2023-03-26T11:11:51 | 2023-12-30T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:45:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z0qFJA6rUOwcGWU4jMcK | Will we train GPT-4 to generate resolution criteria better than the creator 50% of the time by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if by the end of the year we demonstrate on the podcast that we can get GPT-4 to write better resolutions than the market creator for at least 50% of markets selected by a panel of top market creators. | 2023-03-26T09:56:30 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-09T07:45:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gUjpdrYkRnzmJB6GNDpP | Will Russia control Avdiivka, a city close to being captured just like Bakhmut by May 31st? | Resolves YES if Russia takes control of Avdiivka at any point in time by May 31st, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this location is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves ... | 2023-03-26T09:36:40 | 2023-05-31T15:00:00 | 2023-05-31T15:51:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XchfmaRQ6Pp7eoTVIBEe | Will the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election win more than 350 electoral college votes? | Faithless electors will not affect the resolution of this market - resolution will be based on expected/pledged electoral college votes given the popular vote totals and actions of faithless electors will not be considered. | 2023-03-26T09:18:14 | 2024-11-10T16:15:02 | 2024-11-10T16:15:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YEbTrZyQ0GUcl4ygw5RF | Will Russia have nuclear weapons in Belarus at the end of 2023? | Context: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/25/world/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-belarus-intl-hnk/index.html | 2023-03-26T08:36:20 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:27:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xxfuZh5yJXeQ8gFFkWu1 | Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024) | This market predicts whether OpenAI, in collaboration with at least one of the listed AI alignment organizations, will announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment or safety techniques by December 31, 2024.
Resolves YES if:
OpenAI and at least one of the listed AI alignment organizations officially announce or confi... | 2023-03-26T07:33:14 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:28:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5NR4ySKFuJsf6hslfRYH | Will OpenAI announce a dedicated grant program for external AI alignment research projects? (2024) | This market predicts whether OpenAI will announce a dedicated grant program specifically for external AI alignment research projects by December 31, 2024.
Resolves YES if:
OpenAI officially announces or confirms the establishment of a dedicated grant program for external AI alignment research projects on or before De... | 2023-03-26T07:15:06 | 2023-12-14T08:25:12 | 2023-12-14T08:53:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-REVfDo3aquiwkFvWQWkY | Will Destiny reach 50k Rumble followers by June 15th? | https://rumble.com/c/Destiny
[markets] | 2023-03-26T07:10:31 | 2023-06-16T08:50:15 | 2023-06-16T08:50:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FxZ6UQZoGMGZ6iGiPEzt | Will Finland win Eurovision 2023? 🇫🇮 | Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023.
Resolves NO if Finland does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur. | 2023-03-26T07:08:08 | 2023-05-13T16:37:55 | 2023-05-13T16:37:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xspl5Bke0A2h0G8WQ3Ue | Will Sweden win Eurovision 2023? 🇸🇪 | Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023.
Resolves NO if Sweden does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur. | 2023-03-26T07:07:28 | 2023-05-13T16:37:34 | 2023-05-13T16:37:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MI7YZwRMyB9cPAzJZSNt | Will OpenAI give early access to GPT-5 to any of these alignment organizations? (2024) | This market predicts whether OpenAI will grant early access to their GPT-5 model to any alignment-focused organizations by December 31, 2024.
Resolves YES if:
OpenAI officially announces or confirms that they have granted early access to the GPT-5 model to any alignment-focused organization on or before December 31, ... | 2023-03-26T07:01:19 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-11T10:18:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RVKPLPFTMkeq7xDWYX5P | Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2024? | The NYT bestseller page ( https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/ ) lists the top five sellers in 11 different categories. Will this page list one book making a serious claim to be written by an AI before the end of 2024? | 2023-03-26T06:56:00 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T17:04:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Aard2Zql4CoNaoaguHb | Will OpenAI release weights to a model designed to be easily interpretable (2024)? | This market predicts whether OpenAI will provide the weights to a language model specifically designed for easy interpretability(an Interpretability Model) to any Alignment-focused Organization by December 31, 2024:
Resolves YES if:
OpenAI officially announces or confirms that they have shared the weights of an inter... | 2023-03-26T06:47:53 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-16T11:05:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HwoB8OteashLPScjzrNC | Will the price of Ethereum exceed $2.500,- in 2023? | This market will resolve YES if the price of Ethereum is higher than 2500,- United States dollar before the end of 2023. And will resolve NO if it doesn't succeed in doing that. The price of Ethereum as of writing this is US$1,773.76.
[image] | 2023-03-26T05:45:27 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:57:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-B3PSyvaamt5G1U7ottEQ | Will the House pass a bill shielding former presidents from being indicted by state or local prosecutors? | Resolves YES if a bill is passed during the 118th congress to shield former presidents from being prosecuted at the state or local level for actions taken while they were president. | 2023-03-26T05:06:29 | 2025-01-03T11:51:10 | 2025-01-03T11:51:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6XNWhzBEtebRlEBzRAek | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur before April 16? | A duplicate of this market, with a different date.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream ent... | 2023-03-26T04:56:53 | 2023-04-15T14:59:00 | 2023-04-15T15:50:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0deaRpst8bRCAc3Er3b7 | Will destiny talk to/collaborate with Nick Fuentes before May | [image]Resolve condition is a direct line of communication that lasts for 1 minute or more, with at least one full sentence directed back at him by Destiny. | 2023-03-26T04:55:00 | 2023-04-30T18:37:51 | 2023-04-30T18:38:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n9SYXnJjpH4M4by3RNNZ | Will destiny talk to/collaborate with Alex Stein in 2023? | [image]Resolve condition is a direct line of communication that lasts for 1 minute or more, with at least one full sentence directed back at him by Destiny. E.g. Stein ambushing him on an IRL stream to harass him for a minute just to get ignored does not count, but Stein purchasing Tier V and hopping on viewer callins ... | 2023-03-26T04:39:16 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:05:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u9ONj1fcSkK9VpEyqOfn | Will China announce a deal to build a naval base in the Western hemisphere during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-26T04:17:19 | 2023-12-31T20:35:53 | 2023-12-31T20:35:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rjwHKZhtaTzKoQvHZ1gJ | Will Destiny react to the rest of Mr. Girl's manifesto? He only reacted to 25% of it via Chud's stream before leaving. | On one hand, there's a huge chunk of the article he hasn't reacted to yet.
On the other hand, he will be gone for a week to attend in person events and shows such as Tim Pool and Change My Mind. | 2023-03-25T22:31:47 | 2023-04-11T20:36:48 | 2023-04-11T20:36:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Lp4Fs8mAUBrx0zBKJrbv | Jonathan Majors who plays MCU's Kang was arrested for assaulting a woman. Will Marvel or Disney cut ties? | (https://apnews.com/article/jonathan-majors-arrested-3ccf23bb407f5e6d2441ccc536b254f2)[markets] | 2023-03-25T21:18:07 | 2023-12-18T14:20:55 | 2023-12-18T14:20:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lG0tVoKHOwUSofC6idnl | Will GPT-4 per-token price decrease by the end of Q3'2023? | If either the prompt or completion price decreases for either 8k or 32k token length, this market will resolve YES. If a new model that marketed as similar to GPT-4 but cheaper is released, the market will resolve YES, e.g. as per the GPT-3.5-turbo model. If other tokens lengths or variants that are not equivalent are ... | 2023-03-25T17:24:21 | 2023-09-30T23:59:00 | 2023-10-13T14:32:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8ueFvp8hbPhlYM0z4lW3 | Will AI reliably produce images with the specified number of fingers on two hands by end of 2023? | I will test image generation models by asking "Please produce an image of two hands, with the left having # fingers and the right having # fingers". The number of fingers will be between 3 and 7. For a positive resolution, any model I use will need to get 5 images right consecutively.
This is what I currently get:
... | 2023-03-25T15:49:47 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:17:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nlh3Aux6JtVM8tp4rdMn | Will there be a major cybersecurity incident in 2023? (major enough to be covered by the NYT) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-25T13:31:32 | 2023-07-07T08:57:53 | 2023-07-07T08:57:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Cg8BAAiF0dNgZyPLTy1W | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast by the end of 2024? | Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded. | 2023-03-25T12:11:52 | 2025-01-01T01:02:24 | 2025-01-01T01:02:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uibJ6H09qKy1vmrVLvky | Will there be any agreement to slow down AI development, between OpenAI/Microsoft, Google and Anthropic before 2024? | An agreement between any two of these orgs counts.
Must be credible that it will actually slow down their activity. | 2023-03-25T09:47:22 | 2024-02-05T15:35:56 | 2024-02-05T15:35:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0j07X4hXytFvhQliuhiP | Will Deutsche Bank collapse at least 90% or be acquired before June 1? | Resolves YES if before June, the bank experiences any of the following:
The bank's stock price closes on any day at least 90% down year-to-date (i.e. at least 90% lower compared to the opening price on the first trading day of 2023).
The bank's stock is delisted on the NYSE or halted for at least 1 month (see https:/... | 2023-03-25T08:02:50 | 2023-05-31T21:13:08 | 2023-05-31T21:13:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xuGZ2uBzxEFiPTmDGJ9Q | Will First Republic Bank collapse, be acquired, or receive government support before June? | Resolves YES if any of the following occur to the bank before June 2023:
- Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations.
- Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution.
- Break-up: Split of the bank into at least two separate entities.
- Gove... | 2023-03-25T07:09:53 | 2023-05-01T20:48:04 | 2023-05-01T20:48:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-M8Yf26FE42NEan7hLXju | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Conversations with Tyler podcast by the end of 2023? | https://conversationswithtyler.com/
Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded. | 2023-03-25T07:00:31 | 2024-01-01T04:47:26 | 2024-01-01T04:47:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nAkwVVDqFBTvj3r3Zx2K | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Ezra Klein Show podcast by the end of 2023? | Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded. | 2023-03-25T06:55:33 | 2024-01-01T04:44:03 | 2024-01-01T04:44:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XMAE6Lmbru0HoaeSXhvf | Will Israel ban Christian proselytization within 90 days? | Netanyahu has pledged that Israel will not ban Christian missionaries. Ultras in the Knesset want otherwise. Foreign allies of all stripes are looking on with irritated concern for conflicting and incompatible reasons. Who will win? | 2023-03-25T06:50:28 | 2023-06-23T07:24:56 | 2023-06-23T07:24:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tzI3UCuKFF4OLRBlmwom | Will MrBeast Release a Mobile game/App by the end of 2023? | [image] | 2023-03-25T06:04:02 | 2023-12-31T05:59:00 | 2023-12-31T11:34:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7ztgimfqAxhbQGm4ydWR | Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023? | From https://metaculus.com//questions/15622/deutsche-bank-collapse-before-june-2023/ In the wake of the [2023 banking turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-2023-banking-crisis-unfolded-2023-03-24/), triggerd by the collapse of [Silicon Valley Bank](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2023/03/24/the-s... | 2023-03-25T05:22:14 | 2023-05-31T04:00:00 | 2023-06-07T18:30:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jY8v0BV5W500k1zjpvdk | Will GPT-4 visual model (as released by OpenAI) show ability to tell if an object is inside or outside another object? | GPT-4 (visual model as released by Open AI, first version, and without additional enhancements using plugins or whatever, and not another company using GPT-4 in their product).
Will it be able to tell if a square is inside a circle, or if a toy is inside a box when shown an image.
I've had only limited exposure to g... | 2023-03-25T02:55:51 | 2023-12-26T05:27:57 | 2023-12-26T05:27:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EvH0csf4oGvfi83CKgtR | Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2024? | Resolves to yes if Taylor releases a new album by 2024. Singles, EPs, bonus tracks and re-recordings (Taylor's version albums) will not be considered albums. | 2023-03-25T00:20:47 | 2024-04-25T15:18:45 | 2024-04-25T15:18:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1qbvVqaEYDqQWg3w7bYt | Will Destiny burn the bridge with Kelly Jean in 2023? | Resolves on whether Destiny burns the bridge with Kelly Jean in 2023. Yes = he does burn the bridge. No = He doesn't.
Doesn't count if Kelly Jean burns the bridge.
Based on my best interpretation of whether it counts as a bridge burn. I will look at all evidence/clips posted. | 2023-03-24T20:33:56 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:53:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nIedSSpkUq4TvwmmFJ2O | Has Ben Simmons played his last NBA game of 2023? | Inclusive of playoffs and 2023-2024 season that begins 10/24/2023. This market will resolve on Jan 1 2024. | 2023-03-24T19:42:12 | 2023-11-03T13:53:09 | 2023-11-03T13:53:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2X0cfHaBm4t6i9K1fNj3 | Will Ian aka IrishLaddie aka Vaush Reenter Orbit Before the End of 2023? | Ian aka IrishLaddie aka Vaush aka Vowsh aka Voosh aka Karkiv Kind Finder | 2023-03-24T14:44:34 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:13:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XsfvYFLSMyKNR2GtmZkq | Will Apple announce its own LLM by the end of 2023? | There is some speculation online that Apple might end up having its own LLM
[tweet]Criteria
Resolves positively iff...
Before December 31st 2023, at midnight, Apple announces its own large language model running on Apple devices
For the sake of resolving this market, I will define the "Large" in LLM to mean >=1B pa... | 2023-03-24T10:05:51 | 2023-12-31T06:37:47 | 2023-12-31T06:37:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hjBoNZh1IOFC58heEzfB | Will trump be indicted by the end of march? | Self explanatory resolve criteria. | 2023-03-24T10:03:26 | 2023-03-31T16:24:37 | 2023-03-31T16:24:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4cJPgMFXr72kGBytePKh | Will the protests over Macron's pension reform in France end by April 30th? | The French people have a long history of protesting and rioting against their government. Some lasts days, some lasts weeks and some lasts months. The protest against Macron's pension reform is the latest one to take place.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/0lameK-x7pA) | 2023-03-24T05:37:22 | 2023-05-01T10:47:49 | 2023-05-01T10:47:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8f8BwcqZvi3BmcnLNFg1 | Will the protests over Macron's pension reform in France end by March 31st? | The French people have a long history of protesting and rioting against their government. Some lasts days, some lasts weeks and some lasts months. The protest against Macron's pension reform is the latest one to take place.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/0lameK-x7pA) | 2023-03-24T05:31:05 | 2023-04-06T17:23:36 | 2023-04-06T17:23:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DEog9CeQ3zA6YOIl7uOw | Will xqc beat forsens new 18 minute time before the end of the year? | Will xqc beat forsens new 18 minute time minecraft speedrun time before the end of the year? | 2023-03-24T02:35:59 | 2023-05-07T06:25:39 | 2023-05-07T06:25:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mtJkiYhStkkEv8Apd5tL | Will Blockbuster make a comeback in 2023? | Context: A number of tech news sites (example) have recently noticed that the official website of Blockbuster Video is live again, featuring a cryptic "We are working on rewinding your movie" message. Speculation in these articles is that this might be signaling a return of the Blockbuster brand sometime in the near fu... | 2023-03-23T21:23:05 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:47:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7HzMpc0SOrAkOm4Bo5Ui | Will a real Trump mugshot be available on the internet before July? | Must be a real mugshot taken after trump's arrest. | 2023-03-23T17:38:43 | 2023-06-30T16:59:00 | 2023-07-01T08:03:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tvYzJxWWFVT7vyi1uIYR | Will Trump be Arrested or Indicted by Friday, April 07 2023? | Can be from any level of government in the US.
Must be public information on or before 4/7/2023 at 11:59pm EDT. | 2023-03-23T17:15:04 | 2023-03-30T17:22:42 | 2023-03-30T17:22:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qo3wyN2KB2E8SCdx8iB1 | [Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections? | The President of Turkey is directly elected through the two-round system, under which a candidate must obtain a simple majority (more than 50%) of the popular vote in order to be elected. If no candidate secures an overall majority outright, then a runoff is held between the two most voted-for candidates from the first... | 2023-03-23T15:32:09 | 2023-05-28T09:12:48 | 2023-05-28T09:12:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GMYiUzPhBq8mWPBHSUc3 | Will ChatGPT include image upload capabilities by the end of May? | This market will be resolved by if it's available (by myself) in either ChatGPT or ChatGPT Plus in any way (i.e. it counts if I have to pay to use it). The image should be accepted via a file upload (uploading a base64 encoding of the image does not count). | 2023-03-23T14:25:10 | 2023-05-31T23:59:00 | 2023-06-01T04:35:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NXJrtsCYyn571Jb0lfFV | Will Destiny and Dan have an episode of the Podcast by the end of May? | Destiny and Dan either live or on a Youtube video post an official podcast.
Yes - They release an episode before the end of May
No - Super Copium never going to happen before the end of May | 2023-03-23T10:50:14 | 2023-05-31T06:25:05 | 2023-05-31T06:25:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iPsanxNeiNTh4yorFfmO | Will Kyiv fall before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-23T09:57:55 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:24:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-73amVgTsW94ujnsV9gn4 | Will any of Donald Trump's attorneys be charged with a crime during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-23T08:15:40 | 2023-08-14T20:58:55 | 2023-08-14T20:58:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lnfJfqe1T13l8ip7RNP5 | Uganda is the latest African nation making LGBT identification illegal. Will another African nation follow suit in 2023? | [tweet] | 2023-03-23T08:13:07 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-05T03:43:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S0XniROjQXDjRrzpkUJW | Will Trump be indicted by Sun March 26 | This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before 11:59:59 PM PT on the day specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
An indictment that has been issued be... | 2023-03-23T07:43:41 | 2023-03-26T20:59:00 | 2023-03-26T21:18:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hh540KQUlfgirTmvB6ct | Will Justin Roiland, voice of Rick & Morty be rehired since the domestic violence charge filed against him has dropped? | [tweet] | 2023-03-23T00:42:12 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-12T04:37:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dZH62JymW7Qpsp6vu4bz | Will Moderna shares lose over 25% value in the next six months? | Market will resolve in yes if the share price dips below USD 111 in the next six months (today's closing price was USD 148) even if it rises back up after that. | 2023-03-22T20:25:13 | 2023-08-02T22:03:40 | 2023-08-02T22:03:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P8dR4xL8gUgdjIeU2cQr | Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate in the May 2023 meeting? | How will The Fed set the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, May 2-3 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate, otherwise NO.
| 2023-03-22T18:38:58 | 2023-05-03T11:33:34 | 2023-05-03T11:33:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OMXPeOwcuWBhd4UbCFDD | Will xQc beat Forsen 's Minecraft record before May 2023? | Resolves Yes if xQc beats Forsen's Minecraft record before May 2023
Resolves No if he doesn't
Time to beat 18:10.599 | 2023-03-22T16:08:25 | 2023-04-30T15:00:00 | 2023-05-01T03:22:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VjYz2XssSPij7cwH1Lk0 | soccer: will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga 22/23 | Bundesliga will they win and keep their record going or will BvB or union or other teams beat them? | 2023-03-22T15:00:23 | 2023-05-27T06:59:00 | 2023-05-27T23:11:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tuGVkYkqY2CJh7fVZUQt | Will Turkey and Hungary ratify Sweden's application to join NATO by 1st of July 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-22T14:21:42 | 2023-06-30T15:01:00 | 2023-06-30T15:08:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SQt7ExAYY3ysdV7dJzQq | Will SPY be up today? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-22T14:03:22 | 2023-03-23T09:00:00 | 2023-03-23T14:59:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qsEmmuZOpmD79BzbOPZR | Will A.I. Achieve Significantly More, "Linguistic Temporal Understanding" by end of 2023? | Preface / Inspiration: There are a lot of questions on Manifold about whether or not we'll see sentience, general A.I., and a lot of other nonsense and faith-based questions which rely on the market maker's interpretation and often close at some far distant point in the future when a lot of us will be dead. This is an ... | 2023-03-22T13:58:48 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-08T08:03:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KC8anLVlT6IiLDiZZKrQ | The grand jury meeting for the indictment of Donald Trump has been cancelled today. Will the next one also be cancelled? | https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1638575234822307848 | 2023-03-22T12:40:19 | 2023-03-28T12:45:58 | 2023-03-28T12:45:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9HRv7KbgF3xYYKMWh3vX | 🐕 Will AI Be Able to Understand the, "Meaning" of Questions Significantly Better By the End of 2023? | Preface:
Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.
Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme
[image]Market Description:
Break
As measured by, "Break," (non high-level) from Allen A.I. leaderboards here:
https://github.com/allenai/Break
http... | 2023-03-22T10:10:49 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-10T07:05:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3bWSYDOj9erMUMPRqQQm | Will Destiny talk to Anastasiya aka. Ukrainian Ana again by the end of March? | https://twitter.com/UkrainianAna | 2023-03-22T09:51:37 | 2023-04-01T04:48:23 | 2023-04-01T04:48:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tu0F3Q6HhzG8l6a62xsT | Will Bitcoin's price be above $30000 on April 30th? | Resolves on April 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the BTC/BUSD spot market.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_BUSD | 2023-03-22T09:48:45 | 2023-04-30T21:02:56 | 2023-04-30T21:02:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xkmn96aDIcHWgTNlk07s | Will Bitcoin's price be above $27500 on April 30th? | Resolves on April 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the BTC/BUSD spot market.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_BUSD | 2023-03-22T09:48:26 | 2023-04-30T21:03:27 | 2023-04-30T21:03:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i9VKcqJ9qndLUAW7rCkl | Will Melania file for divorce by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-22T08:10:04 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:40:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EUOqo8ztwEcYkOioSbBF | Will Destiny have a 30k viewer Rumble stream by the end of April? | He peaked at 27k live viewers in his first Rumble stream.
https://rumble.com/c/Destiny
| 2023-03-22T06:34:10 | 2023-04-30T18:52:06 | 2023-04-30T18:52:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L2Y8oVUlZJybicEMGNbB | Will Donald Trump insult Ron DeSantis' wife? | Trump has been insulting DeSantis for awhile now with personal attacks, allegations and nicknames.
Back in the 2016 Republican primaries, he also went after family members of his opponents.
We will go by reputable mainstream reporting such as MSNBC, Fox, CNN, OANN, NPR, Reuters etc. Gossip sites such as TMZ does not... | 2023-03-22T05:28:39 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:59:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ru1FeCfrFih7YVKsdGKb | Will Glenn Youngkin win at least one state in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Glenn Youngkin wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's... | 2023-03-22T00:16:02 | 2024-01-22T15:35:16 | 2024-01-22T15:35:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yGeI27MIJpvQhrbYoSI7 | Will the Fed raise benchmark rates in June? | June 13-14 | 2023-03-21T22:14:37 | 2023-06-14T10:00:00 | 2023-06-14T15:29:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xKzUPgUR46wN5H6RraUM | Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 25bps in June? | June 13-14 | 2023-03-21T22:14:01 | 2023-06-14T10:00:00 | 2023-06-14T15:29:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zlsvu3ke8hgbAJPa5X3V | Will Donald Trump call Ron DeSantis a pedophile or homosexual as the temperature rises between them? | Trump Suggests DeSantis Will Face Allegations From ‘Underage’ Girls ‘Or Possibly A Man!’ After Speaking Out On Manhattan Probe | 2023-03-21T21:49:07 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:33:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sW9v8jMVzDNT03CIYLiL | Will Trump be indicted on a Tuesday | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T21:37:57 | 2024-04-12T18:39:56 | 2024-04-12T18:39:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h4Lznex16IS9hXgYrNz0 | Will Lula da Silva visit Zelenskyy in Kyiv during 2023? | Mar 22, 12:34am: Will Lula de Silva visit Kyiv during 2023? → Will Lula da Silva visit Kyiv during 2023? | 2023-03-21T21:33:50 | 2023-12-31T20:41:57 | 2023-12-31T20:41:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-doMSHUbzLqb5OJ0q18cm | Will Justin Trudeau visit Kyiv during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T21:33:17 | 2023-06-10T09:56:39 | 2023-06-10T09:56:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eEQMhqtNEJ0fMa2kW4Qd | Will Narendra Modi visit Kyiv during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T21:32:53 | 2023-12-31T20:18:15 | 2023-12-31T20:18:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tTSNBRRA0H5siB1Q8DhC | Will Francis Suarez visit Kyiv during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T21:31:29 | 2023-12-31T14:04:24 | 2023-12-31T14:04:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aXuaVptobt6giEqhXgtN | Will Tim Scott visit Kyiv during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T21:28:55 | 2023-12-31T20:26:05 | 2023-12-31T20:26:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-foJeSbKPTDP6JWylEWxr | Will Trump be indicted Thursday? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T21:20:59 | 2023-03-23T19:26:00 | 2023-03-23T19:26:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bnurXcBQaHGKSnldJzmq | Will Trump be indicted today? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T21:20:34 | 2023-03-22T18:09:08 | 2023-03-22T18:09:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WGG36ZWmwkjlIlDTxS52 | Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023? | I'm looking for ideas for how to operationalize this question.
Hopefully the answer will be pretty obvious, but if it's not, my current plan is to set up a poll here on Manifold, or on Twitter. The main problem would be if a model does somewhat better than GPT-4 on most metrics, but that its qualitative behavior is no... | 2023-03-21T19:24:04 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-02T03:45:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z7LP5vyjog00NC2OTvDG | Will Destiny talk to Brittany Simon on stream before April? | [image] | 2023-03-21T19:08:33 | 2023-03-31T14:59:00 | 2023-03-31T17:47:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nUAmixSde0h7ZphncLsu | Will the 2023 Nobel prize recipients include at least one woman? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T17:39:44 | 2023-10-05T14:54:39 | 2023-10-05T14:54:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hka8d6BxRQU93E9oQ9GB | By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft? | As of late, there is talk of an "AI war" brewing amongst the tech giants (mainly Google and Microsoft): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdHaeczStRA&ab_channel=JomaTech
Currently, the consensus is that Microsoft (and OpenAI) have made the first move and are in a winning position against Google: https://www.youtube.com/... | 2023-03-21T15:55:34 | 2024-12-30T15:59:00 | 2025-01-06T08:06:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ogCmoCcIVjvrbG9OWd0D | Will Biden issue a pardon for Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-21T15:54:24 | 2024-11-03T15:59:00 | 2024-11-04T15:24:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-txnEIorM5e9ud1TUU3qV | Will Molly White (Web3 is Going Just Great) recant during 2023? | Will https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ have to make a significant retraction of its mission and praise blockchain during 2023? | 2023-03-21T14:45:32 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:05:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
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