Datasets:
collingray
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forecasting

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mani-zF5q02NpuXOWsZ6hWmkQ
Will Princeton University top the 2023-2024 edition of the Best Colleges Ranking from US News & World Report?
Princeton University has been ranked the #1 University in America for 14 years running. Will Princeton once again top the USNews rankings when they are released this fall? This market will resolve to YES if Princeton University is the sole college ranked #1, or if a tie for #1 is granted and Princeton is one of the tying colleges. This market will resolve to NO if Princeton is ranked anywhere other than first place or first place (tie).
2023-03-27T11:46:25
2023-09-18T15:08:03
2023-09-18T15:08:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SKOxubsVEYWRsqxP4sTi
Recession in 2024?
Will there be two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth after revisions in 2024? This includes spillover from the last quarter of 2023, so the ones that count would be: 2023 Q4 negative Q1 negative Q1 negative Q2 negative Q2 negative Q3 negative Q3 negative Q4 negative Resolving based on FRED US Real GDP series, after revisions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1#0 Update 2024-19-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will be resolved early if Q1-Q3 2024 are confirmed positive in their 3rd estimate releases from the BEA, without waiting for Q4 data This early resolution is possible because no additional revisions to Q1-Q3 are expected before the Q4 third estimate would be released
2023-03-27T11:42:44
2024-12-19T09:49:35
2024-12-19T09:49:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qy1imNQ5znmdTn2x8X17
Will Itamar Ben-Gvir get a private militia?
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-735580 https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/critics-slam-netanyahus-alleged-ok-for-national-guard-private-ben-gvir-militia/ Resolves YES if it is announced in 2023 that Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's Minister of National Security, will be personally placed in charge of a "national guard" with substantial powers. The national guard should have at least 100 people, and take on responsibilities or actions which the police or other security force would not have done otherwise. Example that would count: Being given responsibility to secure a high-profile area which is not currently secured Securing a certain area or executing police duties in a manner more prejudicial or violent than is currently done
2023-03-27T10:38:07
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T22:32:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-69ASpKLgNTSuXddKnvIA
Will Norway win Eurovision 2023? 🇳🇴
Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023. Resolves NO if Norway does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur. Mar 27, 10:54am: Will Norway win the Eurovision? 🇳🇴 → Will Norway win Eurovision 2023? 🇳🇴
2023-03-27T07:50:44
2023-05-13T16:37:00
2023-05-13T16:37:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gpK51eVkkVuVmYIbVbSf
Will OpenAI go public before 2024?
Will the for-profit wing of OpenAI be a publicly traded stock before 1 January 2024?
2023-03-27T07:44:41
2024-01-01T15:59:00
2024-01-01T17:27:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nEHPinG4aZNOCYPODcej
Will Primož Roglič win the Giro d'Italia 2023?
https://www.giroditalia.it/en/
2023-03-27T07:44:17
2023-05-28T10:59:00
2023-05-28T13:12:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-itqXCTmqfGTcO8VBxX5R
Will Netanyahu remain Israel's PM until the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if Netanyahu continues to be Israel's PM for the rest of 2023, NO if Netanyahu ceases to be PM in 2023. Context: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/27/angry-protests-strikes-paralyse-israel-as-netanyahu-resists-pausing-widely-hated-judicial-reforms.html
2023-03-27T07:18:30
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T00:12:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pR2JmjmNuPABo9bZBTLf
UNICEF ambassador Orlando Bloom meets President Zelensky in Kyiv. Will another Hollywood celebrity do the same in 2023?
[tweet]
2023-03-27T04:57:07
2023-12-17T19:40:24
2023-12-17T19:40:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-maNDhrhemv0KzNuqweWv
Will Trump be indicted this week?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-27T02:58:55
2023-03-30T15:57:11
2023-03-30T15:57:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kZqcE0M8Y959rZdJWVq7
Will Israel have an election before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-26T18:41:36
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-05T16:55:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r77gYRtf9vgp3najUo4K
New film in the Terminator film franchise officially announced by end of 2023?
Primary criteria will be assessing whether a new entry appears here in the standard formatting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminator_(franchise)#Films Note: the announced film does not need to formally have the word "Terminator" in the title. A movie titled simple "Skynet" or "Cyberdine Systems" or similar would resolve to yes.
2023-03-26T16:24:58
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T13:17:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Hmol3BIRh9COlYb5CMs7
Will the US ban TikTok in 2023?
Resolves according to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14062/tiktok-ban-in-us-before-2024/: This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American can do none of the following [edited to clearer language from the Metaculus comments] download the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention) similarly for the iOS App Store use the app if it was previously downloaded (the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store) The above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.
2023-03-26T14:29:50
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T11:07:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-m3dIHetLBc7tfg5AuXiI
WILL XQC BEAT FORSENS TIME BY APRIL
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-26T14:25:06
2023-04-01T16:59:00
2023-04-03T21:03:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DsfZ3ytpQ0slLVey9153
Will the TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15625/tiktok-us-sold-by-2024/ In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/). As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance. ***Will the TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?*** This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete in 2023 but must at least be announced in 2023. If TikTok is not sold before 2024, or is banned within the US and remains banned for the entirety of 2023, this question will resolve as **No**.
2023-03-26T11:11:51
2023-12-30T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:45:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z0qFJA6rUOwcGWU4jMcK
Will we train GPT-4 to generate resolution criteria better than the creator 50% of the time by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if by the end of the year we demonstrate on the podcast that we can get GPT-4 to write better resolutions than the market creator for at least 50% of markets selected by a panel of top market creators.
2023-03-26T09:56:30
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-09T07:45:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gUjpdrYkRnzmJB6GNDpP
Will Russia control Avdiivka, a city close to being captured just like Bakhmut by May 31st?
Resolves YES if Russia takes control of Avdiivka at any point in time by May 31st, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). If this location is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated up to and including the deadline date. The specific location used for this market can be found on the ISW interactive map by simply typing Avdiivka in the search bar. The ISW map is updated everyday at 3:00 PM ET. This location is pictured below with the map as of April 22nd. [image][markets]
2023-03-26T09:36:40
2023-05-31T15:00:00
2023-05-31T15:51:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XchfmaRQ6Pp7eoTVIBEe
Will the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election win more than 350 electoral college votes?
Faithless electors will not affect the resolution of this market - resolution will be based on expected/pledged electoral college votes given the popular vote totals and actions of faithless electors will not be considered.
2023-03-26T09:18:14
2024-11-10T16:15:02
2024-11-10T16:15:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YEbTrZyQ0GUcl4ygw5RF
Will Russia have nuclear weapons in Belarus at the end of 2023?
Context: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/25/world/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-belarus-intl-hnk/index.html
2023-03-26T08:36:20
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:27:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xxfuZh5yJXeQ8gFFkWu1
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
This market predicts whether OpenAI, in collaboration with at least one of the listed AI alignment organizations, will announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment or safety techniques by December 31, 2024. Resolves YES if: OpenAI and at least one of the listed AI alignment organizations officially announce or confirm a major breakthrough in AI alignment or safety techniques on or before December 31, 2024. Resolves 50% if: The best candidate research announcement by OpenAI is heavily contested in this market as a breakthrough, any polls conducted in this market to decide are also disputed, and a third-party judge decides it's too uncertain to call YES or NO. Resolves NO if: No such announcement is made by December 31, 2024. Resolves as NA if: OpenAI ceases to exist, or the listed AI alignment organizations merge, dissolve, or undergo significant restructuring, rendering the original intent of the market unclear or irrelevant. Definitions: Major breakthrough refers to a significant, novel, and publicly disclosed discovery, development, or advance in AI alignment or safety techniques that demonstrates measurable progress towards addressing AI alignment or safety concerns. The market creator will assess the candidates for a breakthrough based on OpenAI's Research Index(or submissions posted in the comments) using their own judgment, citation counts, comments from AI alignment influencers, media coverage, and product usage. If the judgment is disputed within one week, a poll will be conducted to determine if the paper in question is a "major breakthrough". If the polls appear to be manipulated, an unbiased alignment researcher will make the final decision. AI alignment organizations refers to Anthropic, Redwood Research, Alignment Research Center, Center for Human Compatible AI, Machine Intelligence Research Institute, or Conjecture. Additional examples may be added. Description can be freely adjusted within one week after market creation. After that, any disputes will be resolved via poll.
2023-03-26T07:33:14
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T16:28:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5NR4ySKFuJsf6hslfRYH
Will OpenAI announce a dedicated grant program for external AI alignment research projects? (2024)
This market predicts whether OpenAI will announce a dedicated grant program specifically for external AI alignment research projects by December 31, 2024. Resolves YES if: OpenAI officially announces or confirms the establishment of a dedicated grant program for external AI alignment research projects on or before December 31, 2024. Resolves NO if: OpenAI does not announce a dedicated grant program for external AI alignment research projects by December 31, 2024. Resolves as NA if: OpenAI ceases to exist, undergoes significant restructuring, or experiences any other event that renders the original intent of the market unclear or irrelevant. Definitions: "Dedicated grant program" refers to a funding initiative, formally announced and organized by OpenAI, with the specific aim of supporting external research projects that focus on AI alignment. This program should have clear guidelines, application processes, and funding allocation criteria. The program must not have been announced before this market's creation. "External AI alignment research projects" are research projects conducted by individuals or organizations outside of OpenAI, focusing on understanding and solving the alignment problem in AI, ensuring that AI systems reliably learn and follow human values and intentions. "OpenAI" mainly refers to OpenAI as an organization but also includes announcements made by executives or heavy investors. If OpenAI is acquired, the term refers to the acquiring entity. If OpenAI dissolves, this market resolves NA.
2023-03-26T07:15:06
2023-12-14T08:25:12
2023-12-14T08:53:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-REVfDo3aquiwkFvWQWkY
Will Destiny reach 50k Rumble followers by June 15th?
https://rumble.com/c/Destiny [markets]
2023-03-26T07:10:31
2023-06-16T08:50:15
2023-06-16T08:50:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FxZ6UQZoGMGZ6iGiPEzt
Will Finland win Eurovision 2023? 🇫🇮
Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023. Resolves NO if Finland does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur.
2023-03-26T07:08:08
2023-05-13T16:37:55
2023-05-13T16:37:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xspl5Bke0A2h0G8WQ3Ue
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2023? 🇸🇪
Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023. Resolves NO if Sweden does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur.
2023-03-26T07:07:28
2023-05-13T16:37:34
2023-05-13T16:37:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MI7YZwRMyB9cPAzJZSNt
Will OpenAI give early access to GPT-5 to any of these alignment organizations? (2024)
This market predicts whether OpenAI will grant early access to their GPT-5 model to any alignment-focused organizations by December 31, 2024. Resolves YES if: OpenAI officially announces or confirms that they have granted early access to the GPT-5 model to any alignment-focused organization on or before December 31, 2024. There is strong evidence that an alignment organization has been granted early access before December 31, 2024. Then the market will be extended by up to 6 months to June 1, 2025 pending confirmation. Resolves NO if: No alignment organization is publicly announced to have received early access to the GPT-5 model from OpenAI by December 31, 2024. Resolves as NA if: OpenAI ceases to exist, or the listed organizations merge, dissolve, or undergo significant restructuring, rendering the original intent of the market unclear or irrelevant. Definitions: "GPT-5" refers to the next major release of OpenAI's generative pre-trained transformer model following GPT-4, or any equivalent successor model that is designed for natural language understanding and generation. Must be externally designated GPT-5, so e.g. GPT-4.5 would not count even if employees refer to it as GPT-5 or internal code is leaked that refers to it as GPT-5. However, code on public-facing websites is strong evidence. "Strong Evidence" means journalistic reporting alluding to credible sources, statements by employees or former employees, or similar. "OpenAI" mainly means OpenAI, but additionally any executive or heavy investor is allowed to make the announcement. So if Microsoft makes the announcement, it will count. If OpenAI is acquired, the name refers to the acquirer. If OpenAI dissolves, this market resolves NA. "Alignment-focused Organization" refers to Anthropic, Redwood Research, Alignment Research Center, Center for Human Compatible AI, Machine Intelligence Research Institute, or Conjecture. Additional examples may be added - if there is a dispute, a poll may be taken. A public release of early access counts as granting early access to these organizations. A leaked release also counts, as long as it is confirmed to be GPT-5. "Red-teaming" of capabilities counts, as long as testing is driven by the alignment organization and not by OpenAI. "Early access" refers to providing any of the listed organizations with access to the GPT-5 model, its weights, or associated APIs before it becomes publicly available or accessible to the general user base. Terms can be adjusted within one week after market creation. After that, terms can only be refined to have narrower meanings or to have additional examples added.
2023-03-26T07:01:19
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-02-11T10:18:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RVKPLPFTMkeq7xDWYX5P
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2024?
The NYT bestseller page ( https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/ ) lists the top five sellers in 11 different categories. Will this page list one book making a serious claim to be written by an AI before the end of 2024?
2023-03-26T06:56:00
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T17:04:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9Aard2Zql4CoNaoaguHb
Will OpenAI release weights to a model designed to be easily interpretable (2024)?
This market predicts whether OpenAI will provide the weights to a language model specifically designed for easy interpretability(an Interpretability Model) to any Alignment-focused Organization by December 31, 2024: Resolves YES if: OpenAI officially announces or confirms that they have shared the weights of an interpretability model with any alignment-focused organization on or before December 31, 2024. Resolves 50% if: There is credible evidence that OpenAI has shared the weights of an interpretability model with any alignment-focused organization. Then the market will be held open for an additional 6 months(June 1, 2025) and resolved 50%. Resolves NO if: No alignment-focused organization receives the weights of an interpretability model from OpenAI by December 31, 2024. Resolves as NA if: OpenAI ceases to exist, or the listed organizations merge, dissolve, or undergo significant restructuring, rendering the original intent of the market unclear or irrelevant. Definitions: A language model is an algorithm that processes and generates human language by assigning probabilities to sequences of tokens (words, characters, or subword units) based on learned patterns from training data. They can then be used for various natural language processing tasks, such as text prediction, text generation, machine translation, sentiment analysis, and more. Language models use statistical or machine learning methods, including deep learning techniques like recurrent neural networks (RNNs), long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and transformer architectures, to capture the complex relationships between words and phrases in a language. "Interpretability model" refers to a language model created by OpenAI with the primary goal of facilitating better understanding of the inner workings, decision-making processes, and learning mechanisms of the model, as opposed to models optimized solely for performance or prediction accuracy. An accompanying article should emphasize interpretability, and an accompanying technical report should report interpretability benchmarks that can judge other language models. Model must not have been released before this market's creation. While performance is not the primary goal, it must be competitive on benchmarks with language models at most 2 years behind it (this excludes the possibility of e.g. a Markov Chain being presented). "OpenAI" mainly means OpenAI, but additionally any executive or heavy investor is allowed to make the announcement. So if Microsoft makes the announcement, it will count. If OpenAI is acquired, the name refers to the acquirer. If OpenAI dissolves, this market resolves NA. "Credible evidence" means journalistic reporting alluding to credible sources, statements by employees or former employees, or similar. "Alignment-focused Organization" refers to Anthropic, Redwood Research, Alignment Research Center, Center for Human Compatible AI, Machine Intelligence Research Institute, or Conjecture. Additional examples may be added - if there is a dispute, a poll may be taken. A public release of weights counts as releasing to these organizations. A leaked release also counts, as long as the model is confirmed to have been developed with the purpose fo being interpretable. "Red-teaming" of capabilities does not count. Market description can be freely adjusted within one week after market creation. After that, I will only refine to narrower meanings or to have additional examples added.
2023-03-26T06:47:53
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-16T11:05:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HwoB8OteashLPScjzrNC
Will the price of Ethereum exceed $2.500,- in 2023?
This market will resolve YES if the price of Ethereum is higher than 2500,- United States dollar before the end of 2023. And will resolve NO if it doesn't succeed in doing that. The price of Ethereum as of writing this is US$1,773.76. [image]
2023-03-26T05:45:27
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2023-12-31T21:57:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-B3PSyvaamt5G1U7ottEQ
Will the House pass a bill shielding former presidents from being indicted by state or local prosecutors?
Resolves YES if a bill is passed during the 118th congress to shield former presidents from being prosecuted at the state or local level for actions taken while they were president.
2023-03-26T05:06:29
2025-01-03T11:51:10
2025-01-03T11:51:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6XNWhzBEtebRlEBzRAek
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur before April 16?
A duplicate of this market, with a different date. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. @/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte @/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-583a5ac08305 @/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-b31d369afae1 @/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-22cb61e371bb @/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-723cf472c5c1 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9 ‌
2023-03-26T04:56:53
2023-04-15T14:59:00
2023-04-15T15:50:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0deaRpst8bRCAc3Er3b7
Will destiny talk to/collaborate with Nick Fuentes before May
[image]Resolve condition is a direct line of communication that lasts for 1 minute or more, with at least one full sentence directed back at him by Destiny.
2023-03-26T04:55:00
2023-04-30T18:37:51
2023-04-30T18:38:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n9SYXnJjpH4M4by3RNNZ
Will destiny talk to/collaborate with Alex Stein in 2023?
[image]Resolve condition is a direct line of communication that lasts for 1 minute or more, with at least one full sentence directed back at him by Destiny. E.g. Stein ambushing him on an IRL stream to harass him for a minute just to get ignored does not count, but Stein purchasing Tier V and hopping on viewer callins to rant for a minute about how jealous he is of D's cuck lifestyle just to get a "Gotcha, ok, now leave me alone" back does count.
2023-03-26T04:39:16
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2023-12-31T22:05:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-u9ONj1fcSkK9VpEyqOfn
Will China announce a deal to build a naval base in the Western hemisphere during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-26T04:17:19
2023-12-31T20:35:53
2023-12-31T20:35:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rjwHKZhtaTzKoQvHZ1gJ
Will Destiny react to the rest of Mr. Girl's manifesto? He only reacted to 25% of it via Chud's stream before leaving.
On one hand, there's a huge chunk of the article he hasn't reacted to yet. On the other hand, he will be gone for a week to attend in person events and shows such as Tim Pool and Change My Mind.
2023-03-25T22:31:47
2023-04-11T20:36:48
2023-04-11T20:36:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Lp4Fs8mAUBrx0zBKJrbv
Jonathan Majors who plays MCU's Kang was arrested for assaulting a woman. Will Marvel or Disney cut ties?
(https://apnews.com/article/jonathan-majors-arrested-3ccf23bb407f5e6d2441ccc536b254f2)[markets]
2023-03-25T21:18:07
2023-12-18T14:20:55
2023-12-18T14:20:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lG0tVoKHOwUSofC6idnl
Will GPT-4 per-token price decrease by the end of Q3'2023?
If either the prompt or completion price decreases for either 8k or 32k token length, this market will resolve YES. If a new model that marketed as similar to GPT-4 but cheaper is released, the market will resolve YES, e.g. as per the GPT-3.5-turbo model. If other tokens lengths or variants that are not equivalent are release, they will not effect the resolution of this market. From the OpenAI website: https://openai.com/pricing GPT-4 With broad general knowledge and domain expertise, GPT-4 can follow complex instructions in natural language and solve difficult problems with accuracy. Learn more 8K context Prompt $0.03 / 1K tokens Completion $0.06 / 1K tokens 32K context Prompt $0.06 / 1K tokens Completion $0.12 / 1K tokens
2023-03-25T17:24:21
2023-09-30T23:59:00
2023-10-13T14:32:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8ueFvp8hbPhlYM0z4lW3
Will AI reliably produce images with the specified number of fingers on two hands by end of 2023?
I will test image generation models by asking "Please produce an image of two hands, with the left having # fingers and the right having # fingers". The number of fingers will be between 3 and 7. For a positive resolution, any model I use will need to get 5 images right consecutively. This is what I currently get: [image]
2023-03-25T15:49:47
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T09:17:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nlh3Aux6JtVM8tp4rdMn
Will there be a major cybersecurity incident in 2023? (major enough to be covered by the NYT)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-25T13:31:32
2023-07-07T08:57:53
2023-07-07T08:57:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Cg8BAAiF0dNgZyPLTy1W
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast by the end of 2024?
Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded.
2023-03-25T12:11:52
2025-01-01T01:02:24
2025-01-01T01:02:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uibJ6H09qKy1vmrVLvky
Will there be any agreement to slow down AI development, between OpenAI/Microsoft, Google and Anthropic before 2024?
An agreement between any two of these orgs counts. Must be credible that it will actually slow down their activity.
2023-03-25T09:47:22
2024-02-05T15:35:56
2024-02-05T15:35:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0j07X4hXytFvhQliuhiP
Will Deutsche Bank collapse at least 90% or be acquired before June 1?
Resolves YES if before June, the bank experiences any of the following: The bank's stock price closes on any day at least 90% down year-to-date (i.e. at least 90% lower compared to the opening price on the first trading day of 2023). The bank's stock is delisted on the NYSE or halted for at least 1 month (see https://www.nyse.com/trade-halt-current). The halt only has to begin before June. The bank is closed by government regulators. Note: For context, First Republic Bank (which hasn't failed yet but has received a $30B rescue from other banks) is currently down about 90% YTD. Acquisition of a bank would mean the stock is delisted once the acquisition closes, and therefore count by the above criteria. (Other than the 90% criteria, the exact criteria are a draft for now, please let me know if you have feedback, and I will finalize the question shortly.)
2023-03-25T08:02:50
2023-05-31T21:13:08
2023-05-31T21:13:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xuGZ2uBzxEFiPTmDGJ9Q
Will First Republic Bank collapse, be acquired, or receive government support before June?
Resolves YES if any of the following occur to the bank before June 2023: - Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations. - Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution. - Break-up: Split of the bank into at least two separate entities. - Government Support: Government-backed provision of financial assistance. This includes full or partial nationalization. - Central Bank Support: Direct intervention from a central bank. - International Support: Financial assistance from international institutions such as the IMF or central banks from other countries. Only events on or after March 25 (the creation date of this question) will count. It does not matter if these happen due to distress or not. Resolution criteria based on: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15622/deutsche-bank-collapse-before-june-2023/.
2023-03-25T07:09:53
2023-05-01T20:48:04
2023-05-01T20:48:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-M8Yf26FE42NEan7hLXju
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Conversations with Tyler podcast by the end of 2023?
https://conversationswithtyler.com/ Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded.
2023-03-25T07:00:31
2024-01-01T04:47:26
2024-01-01T04:47:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nAkwVVDqFBTvj3r3Zx2K
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Ezra Klein Show podcast by the end of 2023?
Resolves based on when the episode comes out, not when the episode is recorded.
2023-03-25T06:55:33
2024-01-01T04:44:03
2024-01-01T04:44:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XMAE6Lmbru0HoaeSXhvf
Will Israel ban Christian proselytization within 90 days?
Netanyahu has pledged that Israel will not ban Christian missionaries. Ultras in the Knesset want otherwise. Foreign allies of all stripes are looking on with irritated concern for conflicting and incompatible reasons. Who will win?
2023-03-25T06:50:28
2023-06-23T07:24:56
2023-06-23T07:24:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tzI3UCuKFF4OLRBlmwom
Will MrBeast Release a Mobile game/App by the end of 2023?
[image]
2023-03-25T06:04:02
2023-12-31T05:59:00
2023-12-31T11:34:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7ztgimfqAxhbQGm4ydWR
Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15622/deutsche-bank-collapse-before-june-2023/ In the wake of the [2023 banking turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-2023-banking-crisis-unfolded-2023-03-24/), triggerd by the collapse of [Silicon Valley Bank](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2023/03/24/the-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-highlights-the-importance-of-resilience-and-the-imperative-of-trust/?sh=626f335f54fa), strong central bank and government support has so far warded off a full-blown crisis, due to [strong responses by the Fed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230319a.htm) and the Swiss central bank and government by facilitating the UBS takeover of [Credit Suisse](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-deal-halted-crisis-092818510.html). However, on March 24, 2023, shares of [Deutsche Bank](https://www.ft.com/content/a730721b-afaf-4e81-b5aa-dcbbd98f3bd3) fell as much as 14%, closing the day down over 8%. This raised fears of a wider contagion and as such about the financial health of Deutsche Bank, the potential implications of its collapse for the German and wider EU banking sector, as well as the potential need for central bank/government support similar to Credit Suisse. [German chancellor Olaf Scholz](https://www.ft.com/content/963d8fde-1bd0-4285-98f4-715248119f2a) “has rejected comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse”: > “Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernised and reorganised its business and is a very profitable bank,” Scholz said at a summit in Brussels after being asked if the lender was the new Credit Suisse. “There is no reason to be concerned about it.” As some have pointed out, this Deutsche Bank scare has forced the German chancellor to borrow line from Silicon Valley Bank CEO: ‘[No cause for any kind of concern’](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-scare-forces-german-191822318.html). While there remains significant uncertainty about the size of the problem and the potential solutions, [some have worried](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/deutsche-banks-collapse-would-be-a-threat-to-the-whole-eurozone/) that: > A Deutsche collapse could bring the euro down with it. Unless the government and the central bank can shore it up over the weekend, very soon the entire currency will be in deep trouble. ***Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?*** This question will resolve as **Yes** if Deutsche Bank experiences any of the following scenarios based on reports by credible sources before June 1, 2023. For resolution of this question, official announcements of any of these scenarios suffice for positive resolution for as long as they are definite in their future implementation (for example, an announcement of a government bailout is sufficient for resolution, even if the actual bailout has not happened yet for as long as the announcement is clear that it has been agreed upon). Scenarios: 1) Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations. 2) Full Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution. 3) Partial Acquisition: Sale of one or more of its business units or divisions to other financial institutions. 4) Break-up: Split of Deutsche Bank into at least two separate entities. 5) Government Bailout: Government-backed provision of financial assistance. 6) Central Bank Support: Direct intervention from the European Central Bank. 7) International Support: Financial assistance from international institutions such as the IMF or central banks from other countries.
2023-03-25T05:22:14
2023-05-31T04:00:00
2023-06-07T18:30:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jY8v0BV5W500k1zjpvdk
Will GPT-4 visual model (as released by OpenAI) show ability to tell if an object is inside or outside another object?
GPT-4 (visual model as released by Open AI, first version, and without additional enhancements using plugins or whatever, and not another company using GPT-4 in their product). Will it be able to tell if a square is inside a circle, or if a toy is inside a box when shown an image. I've had only limited exposure to gpt-4 using a bot that was available on discord and not sure of authenticity, but it failed. I'll resolve when i play with it myself and give it 10 such questions. Resolves YES if it gets 70% of them correct. Otherwise NO. It must do this with the images (png, jpeg, jpg, etc) themselves. There are softwares like webGPT which simplify web pages to text which let's GPT interpret it, but that wouldn't be allowed for this market. If someone wants to know more about this, search for "visual grounding". Hopefully i get access soon and this will be resolved but keeping the close date till EOY for now.
2023-03-25T02:55:51
2023-12-26T05:27:57
2023-12-26T05:27:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EvH0csf4oGvfi83CKgtR
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2024?
Resolves to yes if Taylor releases a new album by 2024. Singles, EPs, bonus tracks and re-recordings (Taylor's version albums) will not be considered albums.
2023-03-25T00:20:47
2024-04-25T15:18:45
2024-04-25T15:18:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1qbvVqaEYDqQWg3w7bYt
Will Destiny burn the bridge with Kelly Jean in 2023?
Resolves on whether Destiny burns the bridge with Kelly Jean in 2023. Yes = he does burn the bridge. No = He doesn't. Doesn't count if Kelly Jean burns the bridge. Based on my best interpretation of whether it counts as a bridge burn. I will look at all evidence/clips posted.
2023-03-24T20:33:56
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T08:53:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nIedSSpkUq4TvwmmFJ2O
Has Ben Simmons played his last NBA game of 2023?
Inclusive of playoffs and 2023-2024 season that begins 10/24/2023. This market will resolve on Jan 1 2024.
2023-03-24T19:42:12
2023-11-03T13:53:09
2023-11-03T13:53:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2X0cfHaBm4t6i9K1fNj3
Will Ian aka IrishLaddie aka Vaush Reenter Orbit Before the End of 2023?
Ian aka IrishLaddie aka Vaush aka Vowsh aka Voosh aka Karkiv Kind Finder
2023-03-24T14:44:34
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T15:13:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XsfvYFLSMyKNR2GtmZkq
Will Apple announce its own LLM by the end of 2023?
There is some speculation online that Apple might end up having its own LLM [tweet]Criteria Resolves positively iff... Before December 31st 2023, at midnight, Apple announces its own large language model running on Apple devices For the sake of resolving this market, I will define the "Large" in LLM to mean >=1B parameters Said LLM may have been co-developed in an external collaboration, but is proprietary to Apple, e.g. it doesn't count if they just integrate an open-source model into some SDK, or announce a deep integration of an OpenAI GPT API or similar Feel free to discuss if you think there's important criteria to be added.
2023-03-24T10:05:51
2023-12-31T06:37:47
2023-12-31T06:37:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hjBoNZh1IOFC58heEzfB
Will trump be indicted by the end of march?
Self explanatory resolve criteria.
2023-03-24T10:03:26
2023-03-31T16:24:37
2023-03-31T16:24:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4cJPgMFXr72kGBytePKh
Will the protests over Macron's pension reform in France end by April 30th?
The French people have a long history of protesting and rioting against their government. Some lasts days, some lasts weeks and some lasts months. The protest against Macron's pension reform is the latest one to take place. (https://www.youtube.com/embed/0lameK-x7pA)
2023-03-24T05:37:22
2023-05-01T10:47:49
2023-05-01T10:47:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8f8BwcqZvi3BmcnLNFg1
Will the protests over Macron's pension reform in France end by March 31st?
The French people have a long history of protesting and rioting against their government. Some lasts days, some lasts weeks and some lasts months. The protest against Macron's pension reform is the latest one to take place. (https://www.youtube.com/embed/0lameK-x7pA)
2023-03-24T05:31:05
2023-04-06T17:23:36
2023-04-06T17:23:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DEog9CeQ3zA6YOIl7uOw
Will xqc beat forsens new 18 minute time before the end of the year?
Will xqc beat forsens new 18 minute time minecraft speedrun time before the end of the year?
2023-03-24T02:35:59
2023-05-07T06:25:39
2023-05-07T06:25:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mtJkiYhStkkEv8Apd5tL
Will Blockbuster make a comeback in 2023?
Context: A number of tech news sites (example) have recently noticed that the official website of Blockbuster Video is live again, featuring a cryptic "We are working on rewinding your movie" message. Speculation in these articles is that this might be signaling a return of the Blockbuster brand sometime in the near future. Will it? Resolves YES if a new physical store (other than the one extant one) or a digital marketplace is opened under the "Blockbuster" brand, where it is possible to buy, rent, or stream products, before midnight on December 31, 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
2023-03-23T21:23:05
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T09:47:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7HzMpc0SOrAkOm4Bo5Ui
Will a real Trump mugshot be available on the internet before July?
Must be a real mugshot taken after trump's arrest.
2023-03-23T17:38:43
2023-06-30T16:59:00
2023-07-01T08:03:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tvYzJxWWFVT7vyi1uIYR
Will Trump be Arrested or Indicted by Friday, April 07 2023?
Can be from any level of government in the US. Must be public information on or before 4/7/2023 at 11:59pm EDT.
2023-03-23T17:15:04
2023-03-30T17:22:42
2023-03-30T17:22:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qo3wyN2KB2E8SCdx8iB1
[Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections?
The President of Turkey is directly elected through the two-round system, under which a candidate must obtain a simple majority (more than 50%) of the popular vote in order to be elected. If no candidate secures an overall majority outright, then a runoff is held between the two most voted-for candidates from the first round, the winner of which is then declared elected. YES if there is a second round of voting. NO if there is not. Apr 5, 10:45am: Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections? → [Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections?
2023-03-23T15:32:09
2023-05-28T09:12:48
2023-05-28T09:12:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GMYiUzPhBq8mWPBHSUc3
Will ChatGPT include image upload capabilities by the end of May?
This market will be resolved by if it's available (by myself) in either ChatGPT or ChatGPT Plus in any way (i.e. it counts if I have to pay to use it). The image should be accepted via a file upload (uploading a base64 encoding of the image does not count).
2023-03-23T14:25:10
2023-05-31T23:59:00
2023-06-01T04:35:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NXJrtsCYyn571Jb0lfFV
Will Destiny and Dan have an episode of the Podcast by the end of May?
Destiny and Dan either live or on a Youtube video post an official podcast. Yes - They release an episode before the end of May No - Super Copium never going to happen before the end of May
2023-03-23T10:50:14
2023-05-31T06:25:05
2023-05-31T06:25:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iPsanxNeiNTh4yorFfmO
Will Kyiv fall before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-23T09:57:55
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:24:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-73amVgTsW94ujnsV9gn4
Will any of Donald Trump's attorneys be charged with a crime during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-23T08:15:40
2023-08-14T20:58:55
2023-08-14T20:58:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lnfJfqe1T13l8ip7RNP5
Uganda is the latest African nation making LGBT identification illegal. Will another African nation follow suit in 2023?
[tweet]
2023-03-23T08:13:07
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-05T03:43:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S0XniROjQXDjRrzpkUJW
Will Trump be indicted by Sun March 26
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before 11:59:59 PM PT on the day specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. An indictment that has been issued before this time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at this time will not be considered in this market. For purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
2023-03-23T07:43:41
2023-03-26T20:59:00
2023-03-26T21:18:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Hh540KQUlfgirTmvB6ct
Will Justin Roiland, voice of Rick & Morty be rehired since the domestic violence charge filed against him has dropped?
[tweet]
2023-03-23T00:42:12
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-12T04:37:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dZH62JymW7Qpsp6vu4bz
Will Moderna shares lose over 25% value in the next six months?
Market will resolve in yes if the share price dips below USD 111 in the next six months (today's closing price was USD 148) even if it rises back up after that.
2023-03-22T20:25:13
2023-08-02T22:03:40
2023-08-02T22:03:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-P8dR4xL8gUgdjIeU2cQr
Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate in the May 2023 meeting?
How will The Fed set the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, May 2-3 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate, otherwise NO.
2023-03-22T18:38:58
2023-05-03T11:33:34
2023-05-03T11:33:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OMXPeOwcuWBhd4UbCFDD
Will xQc beat Forsen 's Minecraft record before May 2023?
Resolves Yes if xQc beats Forsen's Minecraft record before May 2023 Resolves No if he doesn't Time to beat 18:10.599
2023-03-22T16:08:25
2023-04-30T15:00:00
2023-05-01T03:22:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VjYz2XssSPij7cwH1Lk0
soccer: will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga 22/23
Bundesliga will they win and keep their record going or will BvB or union or other teams beat them?
2023-03-22T15:00:23
2023-05-27T06:59:00
2023-05-27T23:11:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tuGVkYkqY2CJh7fVZUQt
Will Turkey and Hungary ratify Sweden's application to join NATO by 1st of July 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-22T14:21:42
2023-06-30T15:01:00
2023-06-30T15:08:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SQt7ExAYY3ysdV7dJzQq
Will SPY be up today?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-22T14:03:22
2023-03-23T09:00:00
2023-03-23T14:59:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qsEmmuZOpmD79BzbOPZR
Will A.I. Achieve Significantly More, "Linguistic Temporal Understanding" by end of 2023?
Preface / Inspiration: There are a lot of questions on Manifold about whether or not we'll see sentience, general A.I., and a lot of other nonsense and faith-based questions which rely on the market maker's interpretation and often close at some far distant point in the future when a lot of us will be dead. This is an effort to create meaningful bets on important A.I. questions which are referenced by a third party. Market Description: https://leaderboard.allenai.org/mctaco/submissions/public MC-TACO Temporal reasoning has to do with the order of events in time. This leaderboard contains five temporal properties, (1) duration (how long an event takes), (2) temporal ordering (typical order of events), (3) typical time (when an event occurs), (4) frequency (how often an event occurs), and (5) stationarity (whether a state is maintained for a very long time or indefinitely). Example 1. (event ordering) Paragraph: Growing up on a farm near St. Paul, L. Mark Bailey didn't dream of becoming a judge. Question: What did Mark do right after he found out that he became a judge? had a nice dinner he buy a 45-acre horse farm he celebrated mark retired he dream of participating himself Example 2. (event duration) Paragraph: Growing up on a farm near St. Paul, L. Mark Bailey didn't dream of becoming a judge. Question: How many years did it take for Mark to become a judge? 63 years 7 weeks 7 years 7 seconds 7 hours Example 3. (event stationarity) Paragraph: Growing up on a farm near St. Paul, L. Mark Bailey didn't dream of becoming a judge. Question: Is Mark still on the farm now? yes Market Resolution Threshold At the time of authoring, the highest Exact Match Score is: 0.6381 DeBERTa Large DeCLaRe Lab, SUTD 06/01/2022 So to qualify as, Significantly More, "Temporal Understanding" By the End of 2023," for the purposes of this market, there would need to be a submission which scores >= 0.8295 by the end of the year, UTC. Mar 23, 2:41pm: Will A.I. Achieve Significantly More, "Temporal Understanding" by end of 2023? → Will A.I. Achieve Significantly More, "Linguistic Temporal Understanding" by end of 2023?
2023-03-22T13:58:48
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-08T08:03:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KC8anLVlT6IiLDiZZKrQ
The grand jury meeting for the indictment of Donald Trump has been cancelled today. Will the next one also be cancelled?
https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1638575234822307848
2023-03-22T12:40:19
2023-03-28T12:45:58
2023-03-28T12:45:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9HRv7KbgF3xYYKMWh3vX
🐕 Will AI Be Able to Understand the, "Meaning" of Questions Significantly Better By the End of 2023?
Preface: Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here. Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme [image]Market Description: Break As measured by, "Break," (non high-level) from Allen A.I. leaderboards here: https://github.com/allenai/Break https://allenai.github.io/Break/blogpost.html "Significantly better," will be interpreted as meaning 30% better Normalized EM Score than the top post on this leaderboard at the time this market opened, compared to the end of the year, UTC. https://leaderboard.allenai.org/break/submissions/public Market Resolution Threshold: At the time of authoring, the highest EM Score is: 0.4230 T5-Large Tomer Wolfson, Tel Aviv University So to qualify as, "Understanding the, "Meaning" of Questions Significantly Better By the End of 2023," for the purposes of this market, there would need to be a submission which scores >= 0.5499 by the end of the year, UTC.
2023-03-22T10:10:49
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-10T07:05:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3bWSYDOj9erMUMPRqQQm
Will Destiny talk to Anastasiya aka. Ukrainian Ana again by the end of March?
https://twitter.com/UkrainianAna
2023-03-22T09:51:37
2023-04-01T04:48:23
2023-04-01T04:48:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tu0F3Q6HhzG8l6a62xsT
Will Bitcoin's price be above $30000 on April 30th?
Resolves on April 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the BTC/BUSD spot market. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_BUSD
2023-03-22T09:48:45
2023-04-30T21:02:56
2023-04-30T21:02:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xkmn96aDIcHWgTNlk07s
Will Bitcoin's price be above $27500 on April 30th?
Resolves on April 30th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the BTC/BUSD spot market. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_BUSD
2023-03-22T09:48:26
2023-04-30T21:03:27
2023-04-30T21:03:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-i9VKcqJ9qndLUAW7rCkl
Will Melania file for divorce by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-22T08:10:04
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:40:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EUOqo8ztwEcYkOioSbBF
Will Destiny have a 30k viewer Rumble stream by the end of April?
He peaked at 27k live viewers in his first Rumble stream. https://rumble.com/c/Destiny
2023-03-22T06:34:10
2023-04-30T18:52:06
2023-04-30T18:52:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-L2Y8oVUlZJybicEMGNbB
Will Donald Trump insult Ron DeSantis' wife?
Trump has been insulting DeSantis for awhile now with personal attacks, allegations and nicknames. Back in the 2016 Republican primaries, he also went after family members of his opponents. We will go by reputable mainstream reporting such as MSNBC, Fox, CNN, OANN, NPR, Reuters etc. Gossip sites such as TMZ does not count.
2023-03-22T05:28:39
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T14:59:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ru1FeCfrFih7YVKsdGKb
Will Glenn Youngkin win at least one state in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Glenn Youngkin wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-03-22T00:16:02
2024-01-22T15:35:16
2024-01-22T15:35:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yGeI27MIJpvQhrbYoSI7
Will the Fed raise benchmark rates in June?
June 13-14
2023-03-21T22:14:37
2023-06-14T10:00:00
2023-06-14T15:29:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xKzUPgUR46wN5H6RraUM
Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 25bps in June?
June 13-14
2023-03-21T22:14:01
2023-06-14T10:00:00
2023-06-14T15:29:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Zlsvu3ke8hgbAJPa5X3V
Will Donald Trump call Ron DeSantis a pedophile or homosexual as the temperature rises between them?
Trump Suggests DeSantis Will Face Allegations From ‘Underage’ Girls ‘Or Possibly A Man!’ After Speaking Out On Manhattan Probe
2023-03-21T21:49:07
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T06:33:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sW9v8jMVzDNT03CIYLiL
Will Trump be indicted on a Tuesday
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T21:37:57
2024-04-12T18:39:56
2024-04-12T18:39:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-h4Lznex16IS9hXgYrNz0
Will Lula da Silva visit Zelenskyy in Kyiv during 2023?
Mar 22, 12:34am: Will Lula de Silva visit Kyiv during 2023? → Will Lula da Silva visit Kyiv during 2023?
2023-03-21T21:33:50
2023-12-31T20:41:57
2023-12-31T20:41:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-doMSHUbzLqb5OJ0q18cm
Will Justin Trudeau visit Kyiv during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T21:33:17
2023-06-10T09:56:39
2023-06-10T09:56:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eEQMhqtNEJ0fMa2kW4Qd
Will Narendra Modi visit Kyiv during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T21:32:53
2023-12-31T20:18:15
2023-12-31T20:18:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tTSNBRRA0H5siB1Q8DhC
Will Francis Suarez visit Kyiv during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T21:31:29
2023-12-31T14:04:24
2023-12-31T14:04:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aXuaVptobt6giEqhXgtN
Will Tim Scott visit Kyiv during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T21:28:55
2023-12-31T20:26:05
2023-12-31T20:26:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-foJeSbKPTDP6JWylEWxr
Will Trump be indicted Thursday?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T21:20:59
2023-03-23T19:26:00
2023-03-23T19:26:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bnurXcBQaHGKSnldJzmq
Will Trump be indicted today?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T21:20:34
2023-03-22T18:09:08
2023-03-22T18:09:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WGG36ZWmwkjlIlDTxS52
Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?
I'm looking for ideas for how to operationalize this question. Hopefully the answer will be pretty obvious, but if it's not, my current plan is to set up a poll here on Manifold, or on Twitter. The main problem would be if a model does somewhat better than GPT-4 on most metrics, but that its qualitative behavior is not noticeably better, in which case I'll probably resolve NO. GPT-4.5 would not count, but a non-GPT-4 LLM that is less powerful than a 2023-produced GPT-4.5 but more powerful than the current GPT-4 would.
2023-03-21T19:24:04
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-02T03:45:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z7LP5vyjog00NC2OTvDG
Will Destiny talk to Brittany Simon on stream before April?
[image]
2023-03-21T19:08:33
2023-03-31T14:59:00
2023-03-31T17:47:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nUAmixSde0h7ZphncLsu
Will the 2023 Nobel prize recipients include at least one woman?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T17:39:44
2023-10-05T14:54:39
2023-10-05T14:54:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hka8d6BxRQU93E9oQ9GB
By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?
As of late, there is talk of an "AI war" brewing amongst the tech giants (mainly Google and Microsoft): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdHaeczStRA&ab_channel=JomaTech Currently, the consensus is that Microsoft (and OpenAI) have made the first move and are in a winning position against Google: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5X1O5AS4nTc&ab_channel=ColdFusion However, some are of the opinion that Google will eventually gain back lost ground and defeat Microsoft: https://twitter.com/tibo_maker/status/1631613907583246342?lang=en The market will resolve YES if by the end of 2024, Google appears to have an edge over Microsoft in the "AI war"; the market will resolve NO otherwise.
2023-03-21T15:55:34
2024-12-30T15:59:00
2025-01-06T08:06:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ogCmoCcIVjvrbG9OWd0D
Will Biden issue a pardon for Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-21T15:54:24
2024-11-03T15:59:00
2024-11-04T15:24:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-txnEIorM5e9ud1TUU3qV
Will Molly White (Web3 is Going Just Great) recant during 2023?
Will https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ have to make a significant retraction of its mission and praise blockchain during 2023?
2023-03-21T14:45:32
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T14:05:54
no
MANIFOLD