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meta-15026
|
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?
|
There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:
> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed.
While no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.
According to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally.
A January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) assigns H5N1 a "level 3" risk level, which is when there is ["Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection."](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note "The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment."
A "level 5" risk level by UKHSA would indicate "indicate ["Any human-to-human transmission."](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1).
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve on the basis of before January 1, 2024 UK HSA assigns a "level 5" risk to H5N1 to indicate human-to-human transmission
|
2023-02-04T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T01:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15025
|
Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?
|
There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:
> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed.
While no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.
According to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. A January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency assigns H5N1 a "level 3" risk level, which is when there is ["Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note "The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment."
Under the [2005 International Health Regulations](https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_1), WHO has the [power](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30401-1/fulltext) to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an [“extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/ihr.html).
Since 2009, WHO has made seven PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the July 23, 2022 [PHEIC declaration of mpox](https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/23-07-2022-who-director-general-declares-the-ongoing-monkeypox-outbreak-a-public-health-event-of-international-concern).
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve on the basis of whether, before 1 January, 2024, WHO declares that the spread of H5N1 constitutes a PHEIC.
Also see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14278/new-who-global-health-emergency-in-2023/) on whether WHO will declare a PHEIC of any kind in 202
|
2023-02-04T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T01:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15014
|
Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?
|
[In August 2022, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). Due to the fraught relations between the US and China regarding Taiwan, the visit attracted considerable media attention and was followed by large-scale Chinese military exercises. [A Metaculus question about whether she'd visit](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11975/pelosi-visits-taiwan-in-2022/) attracted 540 predictions from 167 forecasters.
On January 23, 2023, [reports surfaced](https://punchbowl.news/archive/12323-punchbowl-news-am/) that the Pentagon had begun planning a trip to Taiwan by Pelosi's replacement as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy. On January 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry [issued a statement opposing such a visit](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3836382-china-urges-mccarthy-not-to-visit-taiwan/).
On February 1, You Si-kun visited Washington, DC ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-visit-taiwan-speaker-stresses-importance-defending-island-china-2023-02-01/)). You Si-kun is the president of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, a position comparable to McCarthy's.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kevin McCarthy is in Taiwan at any time in 2023 (up until midnight GMT+8, December 31, 2023) according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting the visit or official press release from the Speaker's office.
This question will resolve as **No** otherwise
|
2023-02-09T09:49:00Z
|
2023-12-31T06:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T07:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15010
|
Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?
|
As of writing, there is a large outbreak of H5Nx avian influenza among wild birds from the 2.3.4.4b clade. These are primarily H5N1. H5N6 and H5N8 specimens of this clade have previously been common as well. Infections of mammals have been observed, although most of these infections are not generally thought to [indicate transmission between mammals](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-mammals).
In October 2022, an outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 occurred in farmed mink in Spain. A January 19 2023 paper indicates the strain had evolved mutations associated with infecting mammalian cells. The strain appeared to have [high transmissibility between mink](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001 ).
There is also recent evidence of possible transmission [between seals](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/peru-confirms-h5n1-avian-flu-marine-mammals-part-southward-spread).
This raises concerns of H5Nx strains capable of human-to-human transmission with an R0 above 1, which could cause a pandemic.
Recent zoonotic viruses with respiratory transmission have generally been controlled before reaching 10,000 cases (eg SARS-1 and MERS) or reached uncontrolled worldwide spread with over 500,000 cases (eg Covid-19 and 2009 H1N1 swine flu).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are over 500,000 credible reported cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b influenza in humans globally dated before January 1, 2025.
Resolution will be based on credible daily case trackers (as the OurWorldInData case tracker was for Covid-19 in 2021-2022). Because there are currently no established daily case trackers for HPAI, and a large outbreak would alter the availability of case tracking data, the specific case tracker is left to admin choice upon identification of a large outbreak.
Fine Print: Estimates of total infection count are not acceptable- this question is about confirmed cases.
The resolution does not depend on the H or N subtype of the virus (although it appears H subtype shifts are uncommon). For the purposes of this question, any virus of the 2.3.4.4b clade (or descendants thereof) will be considered 2.3.4.4b. For the purposes of this question, a crossover strain with at least one mutation inherited directly from 2.3.4.4b will be counted as 2.3.4.4b. Cases which do not descend from this clade will not be counted. In the event of disagreement over the provenance of a strain, the apparent beliefs of the majority of mainstream virologists should be deferred to.
Cases before January 2023 will not count towards this total. Cases from January 1 2023 to December 31 2024 will be counted.
In the event of a large outbreak, almost all human cases of 2.3.4.4b will likely be from a specific initial strain which will receive specific formal and informal names. A small number of independent infections from other 2.3.4.4b strains will likely occur. These infections from other strains will also be counted. If more than one strain of 2.3.4.4b causes large outbreaks, all of these large-outbreak strains will be counted.
Daily case trackers with daily updates based on public data should be preferred. Trackers which clearly include substantial fractions of non-2.3.4.4b cases or which exclude large numbers of highly credible 2.3.4.4b cases should not be preferred. In the event no reasonable example can be found, admins will choose the most accurate and up-to-date data source available.
|
2023-02-11T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T16:00:00Z
|
2025-02-25T14:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15009
|
Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?
|
As of March 2023, talk has been ongoing in Western countries about [providing Ukraine](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045) with F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. So far, no such jets have been pledged to Ukraine, nor any other Western-made fighter aircraft. Reportedly, Ukraine has also made requests for other fighter jets such as [F-22s and F-35s](https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/08/f-22-f-35-gripen-and-eurofighter-ukraine-air-force-openly-requests-for-western-fighters/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that any country has announced a commitment of at least one F-22 or F-35 fighter jet to Ukraine
|
2023-03-13T20:08:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:00:00Z
|
2024-01-04T17:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-15003
|
Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?
|
Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian in February 2022, many NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with a variety of military equipment. Overall, [31 countries](https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html) have pledged and/or delivered military aid to Ukraine. This includes a large number of European nations (among them Germany and the United Kingdom) as well as the United States and Japan.
Prior to the invasion, Germany rejected arms deliveries wholesale in an attempt to [de-escalate](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rejects-arms-deliveries-to-ukraine-but-will-send-field-hospital/a-60523137). However, this decision was reverted as Russia invaded, and countries like the [US](https://www.armytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/02/28/amid-fears-of-russian-air-dominance-us-to-send-anti-aircraft-stingers-to-ukraine/) and Germany sent lethal military aid to Ukraine before the end of February. These early shipments included [Stinger anti-aircraft missiles](https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/what-we-do/land-warfare/precision-weapons/stinger-missile) and a variety of anti-tank weapons, which both represent defensive weapons that were quick to deploy and arguably played a [pivotal role](https://www.businessinsider.com/javelins-stingers-nlaws-help-ukraine-destroy-russian-tanks-aircraft-2022-3?r=US&IR=T) in the successful Ukrainian defensive in the first months of the war.
In late spring 2022, military aid to Ukraine had expanded to deliveries of Soviet-era tanks by [Poland](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-has-delivered-tanks-ukraine-says-polish-pm-2022-04-25/) and [artillery](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3037837/100-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/). In summer, Ukraine received high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) from the [United States](=https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3049472/700-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/) which have been described as having been crucial in both [defensive and offensive](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=HIMARS%20rockets%20have%20been%20integral,otherwise%20wouldn't%20have%20happened%E2%80%A6) operations.
As the conflict heads for its 1-year anniversary, Western allies have, for the first time and after long public debate, committed modern NATO main battle tanks to Ukraine, such as the Challenger 2 supplied by the [United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-accelerates-ukraine-support-ahead-of-anniversary-of-putins-war). [Germany](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/bundesregierung-kuendigt-lieferung-von-leopard-2-panzern-an-die-ukraine-an-2160236) also committed to sending Leopard-2 main battle tanks (while also agreeing to the re-export of other such tanks), and the [United States](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3277910/biden-announces-abrams-tanks-to-be-delivered-to-ukraine/) committed Abrams tanks. This represented a further move by Western countries in supplying weapons that would be crucial in [offensive operations]( https://www.ft.com/content/959c4a23-676e-49d7-b25e-409fa85c397e) such as retaking occupied land.
In late January 2023, shortly after receiving commitments on NATO main battle tanks, Ukrainian officials have [asked for fighter jets, especially F-16s](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/31/politics/ukraine-escalates-public-push-f-16-fighter-jets/index.html). So far, the UK and the US have [ruled out](https://news.sky.com/story/president-biden-rules-out-donating-f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-12799633) sending F-16 fighter jets, but [France has signalled openness]( https://www.ft.com/content/4678ec97-bdff-4dfa-9507-dd6f6cb3dcc4), stating that “by definition, nothing is excluded”. Further, the [Dutch Foreign Minister](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/885930.html) has declared readiness to consider transferring F-16s.
There are some [reports](https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/poland-reportedly-delivered-mig-29-fighters-to-ukraine-as-spare-parts) that Poland transferred Soviet-designed MiG-29s (or its spare parts) to Ukraine in early 2022, but these reports are disputed and it is unclear whether and/or how many fighters were delivered.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) shows that at least one NATO country has announced a commitment of at least 1 [F-16](https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/f-16.html) fighter jet to Ukraine.
This question will resolve as **No** if no NATO country officially commits to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before January 1, 2024.
Fine Print: For this question, all [types](https://www.cybermodeler.com/aircraft/f-16/viperversions.shtml) of F-16 fighter jets are considered equally and will count for resolution if committed.
|
2023-02-05T16:42:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2023-08-20T16:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14846
|
Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?
|
So far, the 2022-2023 flu season both [in Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/Weekly-Influenza-Activity-Report.pdf) and [in the U.S. generally](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has been characterized by an unusually early peak in flu activity. For the past several weeks, flu activity has been declining in Virginia and the U.S. generally.
However, given the early peak in flu cases this season, there is concern about the possibility of a second later peak — either because protection conferred by vaccination/previous infection may have have waned, because of the arising of a different flu strain, or both. This kind of bimodal flu activity has [some precedent](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/this-year-the-flu-came-in-two-waves-heres-why).
Historical data on Virginia's ILI activity level can be accessed using the slider under "Outpatient Respiratory Illness Activity Map" on [this](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) CDC page. The last time Virginia's ILI activity level was "High" or "Very High" was for the week ending January 7, 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve on the basis of whether the Virginia Department of Health's [Weekly Influenza Activity Report](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/) indicates that the state of Virginia was at the "High" or "Very High" influenza-like illness (ILI) activity level for any reported week ending in February, March, April, May or June 2023 (between the week ending February 4, 2023 and the week ending July 1, 2023).
Fine Print: This asks about the overall ILI activity in Virginia, not about Virginia's regions. The "High" or "Very High" level only needs to be reached for a week for this to resolve positively.
|
2023-01-30T18:50:00Z
|
2023-07-01T12:00:00Z
|
2023-07-07T15:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14845
|
Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?
|
Two important types of COVID therapeutics are [monoclonal antibodies](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/antivirals-including-antibody-products/anti-sars-cov-2-monoclonal-antibodies/) and [antivirals](https://www.webmd.com/covid/antivirals-covid-19).
As of late 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had [authorized or approved](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/emergency-preparedness-drugs/coronavirus-covid-19-drugs) the use of two monoclonal antibodies (Bebtelovimab and Evusheld) and three antiviral drugs (Veklury/Remdesivir, Paxlovid, and Lagevrio/molnupiravir).
However, the SARS-CoV-2 variants in circulation has [raised](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/11/20/1137892932/monoclonal-antibodies-covid-treatment) [concerns](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-valuable-covid-drug-doesnt-work-against-new-variants/) about the efficacy of these therapeutics, in particular the monoclonal antibodies. On November 30, 2022, the FDA [withdrew](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-bebtelovimab-not-currently-authorized-any-us-region) the authorization for Bebtelovimab and on January 26, 2023, the FDA [withdrew](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-evusheld-not-currently-authorized-emergency-use-us) authorization for Evusheld.
As of January 27, 2022, Paxlovid, Veklury (remdesivir) and Lagevrio (molnupiravir) [continue to remain authorized](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-evusheld-not-currently-authorized-emergency-use-us) as COVID therapeutics.
The purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of there no longer being any authorized monoclonal antibodies or antivirals in the U.S. in 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve on the basis of whether the [U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability) withdraws authorization/approval of all COVID monoclonal antibodies and antivirals so that there are none authorized/approved for use in the U.S.
Fine Print: This question specifically asks about monoclonal antibodies and antivirals. Other COVID therapeutics, like immune modulators and sedatives, do not count.
|
2023-01-30T18:50:00Z
|
2024-01-01T01:00:00Z
|
2024-01-04T17:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14840
|
Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?
|
Magnus Carlsen [declined to defend his title as World Chess Champion](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/20/magnus-carlsen-will-not-defend-his-world-chess-championship-title-in-2023), leaving the championship is vacant.
The International Chess Federation (FIDE) selected the winner and runner-up of the [2022 Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022), Ian Nepomniachtchi and Ding Liren, to compete to be the next World Chess Champion.
Ding Liren narrowly secured a qualifying spot with a [final-round win](https://www.chess.com/events/2022-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/14/Ding_Liren-Nakamura_Hikaru).
Ian Nepomniachtchi [won the Candidates Tournament without a single loss](https://www.fide.com/news/1847).
The two men will [compete for the title](https://www.fide.com/news/2180) in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan, from starting on April 7th through May 1st.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if Ding Liren wins the contest, according to [FIDE](www.fide.com). The question will resolve as **No** if Ian Nepomniachtchi wins the match, if Ding Liren is disqualified or withdraws, or if for any reason FIDE does not declare a 2023 World Chess Champion
|
2023-02-02T01:38:00Z
|
2023-05-01T23:00:00Z
|
2023-04-30T13:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14831
|
Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?
|
[Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' "collective self defense":
> “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
> Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
Article 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, [issued a statement on September 12, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/0910/e0912a.htm) that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was [affirmed on October 2, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm). This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.
Further reading can be found [on NATO's website](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 1, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, the North Atlantic Council publicly affirms that there has been an attack on a NATO member country which is regarded as an action covered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty
|
2023-02-04T19:43:00Z
|
2023-12-31T09:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14699
|
Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?
|
Zimbabwe is scheduled to hold general elections [in 2023](https://www.eisa.org/calendar2023.php). The current president, [Emmerson Mnangagwa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmerson_Mnangagwa), represents the [ZANU-PF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZANU%E2%80%93PF) party, which has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980. Mnangagwa only narrowly avoided a runoff vote in the [disputed election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Zimbabwean_general_election) that brought him to power in 2018. He is expected to run for re-election.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the president of Zimbabwe, as of midnight local time on December 31, 2023, is a member and representative of the ZANU-PF party.
The question will resolve as **No** if the president of Zimbabwe, as of midnight local time on December 31, 2023, is not a member of the ZANU-PF party.
Fine Print: We will determine the political party of the sitting president by consulting this [list of political parties in Zimbabwe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Zimbabwe).
There exist scenarios wherein "president" is imprecise -- for instance, a person could be the de facto leader but not internationally recognized as president.
In case of such imprecision, we will consider:
- The individual listed in the [CIA World Factbook](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/zimbabwe/#government) as Zimbabwe's head of state.
- The individual listed by the State of Zimbabwe as occupying the [Office of President](http://www.theopc.gov.zw/).
If both the CIA World Factbook and the official government website list the same individual, then the question will resolve based on their party membership.
If there is disagreement between these sources, the question will resolve ambiguously.
The question will also resolve ambiguously if the Office of the President is vacant at midnight December 31, 2023 or if the Office of the President of Zimbabwe no longer exists.
|
2023-01-30T00:33:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14664
|
Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14413/nato-tanks-to-ukraine-by-2024/)
---
NATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion. This includes drones such as the [Bayraktar TB2](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-turkish-baykar-tb2-drone-gave-ukraine-edge-against-russia-2022-9?r=US&IR=T), anti-tank weapons like the [NLAW](https://defbrief.com/2022/04/28/uk-speeds-up-nlaw-purchases-after-missile-deliveries-to-ukraine/), artillery and long-range rocket systems like the [HIMARS](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20has%20supplied%20at,HIMARS%20rockets%20provided%20to%20Ukraine.), and air-defence systems like the [Patriot](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-us-regaining-escalation-dominance/#:~:text=The%20addition%20of%20the%20Patriot,heights%20up%20to%2079%2C000ft.) systems.
Poland has also sent over 200 Soviet-designed [T-72]( https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-29/card/poland-has-sent-more-than-200-tanks-to-ukraine-Krwar3DCPzHJJk4UMVh4#:~:text=The%20T%2D72%20tanks%20were,benefactor%20within%20the%20European%20Union.) main battle tanks. However, Ukraine has reiterated its request for modern/NATO main battle tanks. Main battle tanks (MBTs) are armored fighting vehicles designed for front-line combat, characterized by heavy armor, high mobility, and powerful armament. NATO MBTs are generally considered to be some of the best in the world.
So far, the United Kingdom has committed 14 [Challeneger 2](https://news.usni.org/2023/01/17/u-k-sending-14-challenger-2-tanks-ammo-to-ukraine-foreign-minister-says#:~:text=The%20U.K.%20is%20sending%2014,s%20foreign%20minister%20said%20Tuesday.) to Ukraine. However, this number is likely to be too low, as experts have estimated Ukraine to need [at least 100](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/16/ukraine-will-need-more-tanks-if-it-is-to-make-breakthrough) of such modern main battle tanks. This makes the US-made [Abrams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams) and the German-made [Leopard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2) the primary candidates, as there are large numbers available throughout Europe (in the case of the Leopard 2) and the US.
While some countries in possession of Leopard 2 MBTs have said they wanted to send them to Ukraine, Germany holds the [license](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/21/what-is-stopping-the-supply-of-german-made-leopard-2-tanks) to these tanks, such that no transfer can happen without German consent. As of [22 Jan, 2023](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/us-germany-ukraine-tanks-weapons/index.html), the German government has indicated that they will not send Leopard tanks or allow transfer of them without the US also agreeing to send its M1 Abrams tanks, which the US has so far not done.
If this diplomatic stalemate is overcome, NATO countries may be able to supply Ukraine with many more NATO MBTs compared to the 14 that the UK has currently committed, potentially providing Ukraine with the [heavy armour needed](https://www.army-technology.com/news/heavy-armour-needed-to-break-battlefield-deadlock-in-ukraine/) for the anticipated spring offensive.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) shows that countries have announced a cumulative commitment of 100 or more US or German-made modern main tanks. These are (including variations): Abrams and Leopard.
This question will resolve as **No** if a total commitment of 100 or more such tanks is not reported before January 1, 2024
|
2023-01-24T19:30:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2023-02-08T03:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14657
|
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?
|
[The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election). Incumbent President [Tsai Ing-wen](https://english.president.gov.tw/Page/40) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term. The [winner of the 2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the DPP candidate is inaugurated on 20 May 2024 (or, in the case of a delayed inauguration, is announced to have won by [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51077553) and [New York Times](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiRva34lOn8AhWYM1kFHXzCDacQFnoECBAQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2020%2F01%2F11%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Ftaiwan-election-china.html&usg=AOvVaw0DGpxtWlE6BHtzJzB97RTp)). Otherwise, including the event of a premature Chinese invasion and a toppling of the government (making an election impossible) it resolves as **No**
|
2023-01-31T04:23:00Z
|
2024-04-01T05:01:00Z
|
2024-05-20T02:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14656
|
Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?
|
Russia and Kazakhstan have a long history of ties, with Russia exerting significant influence in the country due to their shared border - the longest in the world at 7,600km - as well as common language and economic ties. Despite this, Kazakhstan has maintained a multi-faceted diplomatic approach, selling its resources to [both Russia and China](https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/exports-by-country) while also maintaining strong ties with the European Union and the United States. The country is also a member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. When recent political transitions in Kazakhstan caused [internal tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_unrest), Russia [provided Kazakhstan with armed assistance](https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-csto-troops-withdrawal-security/31661294.html).
But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has tested the relationship between the two nations. Kazakhstan [has not supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine](https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87652).
>Against this backdrop, it’s not surprising that a hastily deleted post by former president—and now deputy chair of the Security Council—Dmitry Medvedev suggesting that after Ukraine, Moscow might turn its attention to the fate of northern Kazakhstan, was taken at face value by many people. But could Russia really enter into conflict with another of its neighbors?
In the post in question, the [Former Russian President questions Kazakhstan’s Sovereignty.](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/former-russian-president-questions-kazakhstans-sovereignty/)
>In this century Kazakhstani authorities implemented resettlement policies of various ethnic groups inside the republic, which can be qualified as the genocide of Russians. And we do not intend to turn a blind eye to this. There will be no order until the Russians get there.
This rhetoric has led some observers to wonder, [after Ukraine, is Kazakhstan next in the Kremlin’s sights?](https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87652)
>The key factor here, though, is that Medvedev’s post simply transferred the same logic that it is applying to Ukraine to its relations with Kazakhstan. If the Kremlin sees that logic as being sufficient to justify a military invasion, what is to stop it doing the same in other former Soviet republics? For now, Moscow sees Kazakhstan as a friendly regime, but Russia’s criteria for friendship are becoming ever more amorphous.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 28, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Kazakhstan, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Kazakhstan. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the specified period
|
2023-01-31T19:01:00Z
|
2023-12-31T16:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T18:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14557
|
Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?
|
In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:
>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.
>. . .
>Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected.
>
>There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.
The History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns. The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone "shutdown" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count)
|
2023-01-21T17:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14544
|
Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?
|
Apple reportedly wants to include [blood pressure monitoring within the Apple Watch](https://9to5mac.com/2021/09/01/apple-watch-blood-pressure-temperature-more/). Bloomberg [wrote in April 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-12/apple-targets-watch-blood-pressure-feature-for-2024-after-snags?leadSource=uverify%20wall) that the feature was "two years away from hitting the market and may slip until 2025."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Apple officially offers for sale an Apple Watch model or accessory that can measure systolic and diastolic blood pressure, or which can monitor trends in blood pressure over time, before January 1, 2025. The Watch must be available for sale on [apple.com](https://www.apple.com/watch/).
Third-party apps or accessories will not be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution
|
2023-01-31T15:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T19:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T21:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14535
|
Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?
|
The Australian Capital Territory is governed by a Legislative Assembly with elections held every four years. Elections involve five multi-member electorates, each of which elects five representatives, called MLAs (Member of the Legislative Assembly). Election is through the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, more detail is [here](https://www.parliament.act.gov.au/visit-and-learn/resources/factsheets/how-members-are-elected). The next election is on 19 October 2024.
Johnathan Davis was elected for the first time in 2020, running in the southern seat of Brindabella. The Greens won 10.8% of the primary vote, about 0.6 of a full quota. As other candidates were exhausted from the count Davis received enough preference flows to take the fifth spot. However, due to the vagaries of the Hare-Clark system, at a critical point in the count Davis was ahead another candidate, Werner-Gibbing, by just 82 votes. Had the voting been slightly different, Davis would not have been elected. You can review the final distribution of preferences [here](https://www.elections.act.gov.au/elections_and_voting/2020_legislative_assembly_election/distribution-of-preferences-2020).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Elections ACT declares Johnathan Davis elected for any electorate in the ACT as an outcome of the 2024 election. This holds if Davis runs for another party or as an independent. If Davis does not run the question will resolve as **No**. If no election occurs in 2024 this question resolves **Ambiguous**
|
2023-01-30T17:25:00Z
|
2024-10-18T12:59:00Z
|
2024-10-21T17:11:37Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14510
|
Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?
|
Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, with a significant portion of its economy dependent on revenue from oil exports. However, the country has been facing increasing pressure to diversify its economy as much of the world races to decarbonise.
As a [Borgen Project report](https://borgenproject.org/economic-diversification-in-saudi-arabia/#:~:text=Saudi%20Arabia's%20Dependence%20on%20Oil%20and%20Gas&text=One%20of%20the%20focuses%20of,avenues%20like%20transportation%20and%20entertainment.) points out:
> In 2016, Saudi Arabia announced a new program called Vision 2030. One of the focuses of this program is economic diversification in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, the goal is to broaden Saudi Arabia’s exports and income possibilities from oil and gas to other necessary avenues like transportation and entertainment.
However, in Q1 2021, [71.1%](https://www.stats.gov.sa/sites/default/files/ITR%20Q12022E.pdf) of total Saudi Arabian exports were oil exports. This number increased to [78.3%](https://www.stats.gov.sa/sites/default/files/ITR%20Q12022E.pdf) in Q1 2022. According to analysis from [UK Department for International Trade](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1124431/saudi-arabia-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2022-12-19.pdf) total exports are projected to grow at double-digits in 2023, though there remains uncertainty as to the composition of exports going forward, as energy markets have been [particularly volatile](https://fortune.com/2022/11/29/starace-enel-ceo-energy-crisis-market-volatility-could-last-two-years/) since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Understanding whether Saudi Arabian exports will successfully diversify away from oil may impact geopolitical, economic, and climate related projections over the next decade.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if oil exports make up less than 70% of total Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024.
This question will resolve **No** if oil exports make up at least 70% of total Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024.
The data relevant for this question will be drawn from the [General Authority for Statistics](https://www.stats.gov.sa/). If this data is not available, a third-party reputable source will be relied upon.
Fine Print: Resolution date is one year after the cut-off for the relevant date to allow for publishing of accurate data.
|
2023-01-27T23:54:00Z
|
2023-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-25T16:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14509
|
Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?
|
OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.
[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They [claim to have reached more than 1 million users](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) within the first 5 days. However, [running it is costly and an "experimental" paid version was announced recently](https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/11/23549821/openai-professional-experimental-paid-version-waitlist-monetization). This version promises to be
>“always available,” offer “fast responses” with no throttling, and give users “at least” twice the daily number of answers compared to the free version of the chatbot.
But a sufficiently patient user of the free version could still enjoy everything ChatGPT has to offer, so we ask whether this will change:
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if there are at least two versions of ChatGPT publicly available simultaneously at any time before January 1st, 2024 and these versions are claimed to have different capabilities—not including increased speed, reduced down-time, or relaxed limits on the number of requests. Paid versions will be considered to be "publicly available". The capabilities difference must be acknowledged by OpenAI to qualify, perceived differences in capabilities are not sufficient.
This question resolves as **Ambiguous** if ChatGPT ceases to be accessible to the public and as **No** otherwise.
Fine Print: Hypothetical scenario: OpenAI keeps the free version and launches a paid version.
* They announce that the paid version gives better answers because they allocate more compute to it, not because of any architectural changes/additional training. In this hypothetical scenario this question would resolve as **Yes**.
* If, however, the only benefit is improved accessibility or speed, this question would resolve as **No**.
* If no announcement is made about a difference in capabilities between the two versions this would resolve as **No**.
ChatGPT is still considered to be "publicly available" even if
* it is rebranded under a different name/with a slightly different interface, but essentially the same functionality (e.g. an iPhone app, only in Bing search, …),
* it ceases to be available _for free_, but paid versions are offered.
|
2023-01-19T00:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2023-03-14T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14503
|
Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?
|
The [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#extraordinarymeasures) to avoid default as long as possible. Both debt held by the public and debt held by the Federal government (for example, [debt owed to the Social Security trust fund](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/#breaking-down-the-debt)).
To avoid default the US has periodically increased the statutory debt limit or temporarily suspended it. Suspensions of the debt limit [typically include](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11829) an increase to the statutory debt limit to match the outstanding debt on the day the suspension ends. The Treasury publishes a [Daily Treasury Statement](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/debt-subject-to-limit) (DTS) containing data about the current statutory debt limit and the outstanding debt subject to that limit. A chart of the last three years of the statutory debt limit and the debt subject to limit is below, with [more details here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html).
<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ryooan/ryooan.github.io/master/forecasting/DebtLimitPackage/R/debtLimitPlotShort.png" alt="US Debt Limit and Debt Subject to Limit (Past Three Year)" />
The US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 "mini-default", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:
>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.
Regarding the 1979 "mini-default" CRS says:
>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.
Partisan standoffs over the debt limit have at times caused uncertainty in the financial markets. In 2011 [S&P downgraded the US credit rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades) from AAA to AA+ after the [debt ceiling crisis that year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis).
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the United States increases the statutory debt limit or suspends it for at least 30 days as the result of one piece of legislation according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Any amount of increase qualifies, as does any suspension which lasts at least 30 days that was passed as part of one piece of legislation. The suspension must begin before January 1, 2024 to qualify, the end date of the suspension is irrelevant apart from the 30 day requirement
|
2023-01-21T17:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2023-06-03T16:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14501
|
Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?
|
Microsoft's search engine, [Bing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing), was the second most popular search engine after Google in December of 2022, according to [data provided by Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share). Statcounter reports a market share of 92.58% for Google and 3.03% for Bing in December of 2022. In early January 2023 it was [reported](https://www.engadget.com/microsoft-reportedly-integrating-chatgpt-technology-into-bing-131502579.html) that Microsoft was exploring integration of OpenAI's [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) into Bing search results.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Bing's market share for the month of March 2024 is 5% or higher [according to Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share), using the first value accessed by Metaculus on or after April 15, 2024.
Fine Print: * The filters used will be those shown by default as of January 12, 2023, namely:
* All platforms
* Worldwide
* A period of "monthly"
* If the Statcounter data is unavailable, or Bing is not listed, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**.
|
2023-01-28T21:47:00Z
|
2024-03-31T22:09:00Z
|
2024-04-22T03:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14483
|
Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14481/mccarthy-speaker-on-january-1-2024/)
---
[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.
The rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).
>1\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.
>
>2\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.
>
>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.
>
>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**
>
>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, a member of the Republican Party introduces a resolution to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House and a vote on the resolution is held. Both the introduction of the resolution and the vote must occur before July 1, 2023. Otherwise this question resolves as **No**. The outcome of the vote and any such resolutions introduced by representatives who are not Republicans are irrelevant for the purposes of this question
|
2023-01-21T05:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T04:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T16:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14481
|
Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14483/gop-member-calls-speaker-vote-before-july/)
---
[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.
In 2015, Speaker of the House John Boehner [resigned after facing substantial discord within his party](https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/25/politics/why-john-boehner-quit/index.html).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kevin McCarthy is [Speaker of the House](https://www.house.gov/leadership) on January 1, 2024 at noon Eastern Time. If he is not Speaker of the House it resolves as **No**. McCarthy need not continuously be Speaker until that time so long as he is Speaker at the designated time
|
2023-01-28T21:50:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14457
|
Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14420/accredited-us-prompt-engineering-course/)
---
Large Language Models (LLMs) [are being used to assist in copy-writing](https://techcrunch.com/2022/08/02/writers-gpt-powered-cowrite-handles-content-drudgery-and-leaves-creativity-to-humans/). [Many such tools](https://renaissancerachel.com/best-ai-writing-tools/) already exist. [According to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomdavenport/2020/11/10/the-future-of-work-now-ai-assisted-writing-with-writercom-and-intuit/?sh=5a4706df2b03), such functions include assistance with grammar, spelling, writing style, conventions, tone and more.
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if an accredited US college or university completes the instruction of such a course for credit before January 1, 2024. Resolution will be determined according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) available before February 1, 2024.
Fine Print: The instruction period must be longer than 60 days.
The main focus of the course must be how to use AI-powered writing tools, either generally or focused on one or more such tools, according to the course listing and/or the course website.
The output of such tools need not be restricted to text generation. Their output may also be in the form of deleting or reorganizing text, writing comments for suggested changes, comments on style, etc.
Link: [List of accredited US colleges and universities](https://www.4icu.org/us/a-z/)
|
2023-01-18T00:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-19T19:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14452
|
Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?
|
[Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Orbit) is an American company within the Virgin Group which provides launch services for small satellites. The company was formed in 2017 to develop the air-launched [LauncherOne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LauncherOne) rocket.
The company was spun off from Virgin Galactic in 2017, and became a publicly traded company in December 2021 after merging with a SPAC; however, this process only [raised](https://parabolicarc.com/2021/12/29/merger-leaves-virgin-orbit-with-less-than-half-of-funding-originally-announced/) $228 million, which was less than half the $483 million the company expected to raise.
According to the company's [Q3 2022 earnings report](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3caaf6053964cd111903fb66d612b6da/virginorbit/news/2022-11-07_Virgin_Orbit_Announces_Third_Quarter_2022_59.pdf), the company had cash and cash equivalents of $71.2 million as of September 30, 2022.
As of January 9 2023, [the company's stock](https://ycharts.com/companies/VORB/market_cap) had lost approximately 76% of its value in the last year. After market hours on that date, the company [experienced an anomaly](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/tiny-english-seaside-resort-counts-down-western-europes-first-satellite-launch-2023-01-09/) during a launch attempt that resulted in the loss of a customer payload.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2026. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves as **No** if no such petition is filed by that date.
Only petitions filed by Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2023 will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count
|
2023-02-02T14:55:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-04-04T06:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14450
|
Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?
|
Many COVID vaccine possibilities are being explored, [including nasal drops](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccines-nasal-sprays-pills-breakthroughs-2023/). Some [have speculated](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25634192-400-why-we-probably-wont-get-new-covid-19-vaccines-in-2023/) that there may be a high bar for new vaccine approvals. The authors point out that (1) a new vaccine would likely need to prove it is more effective than the existing ones, even though the existing ones are many variants behind the type of Covid we have in 2023, and (2) the FDA is less likely to issue an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) due to a perceived reduction in the state of emergency of COVID-19.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the US FDA authorizes (or grants an Emergency Use Authorization) for a vaccine targeting COVID-19 that wasn't available before January 1, 2023, and **No** otherwise.
Fine Print: * The authorization must be for the general public, i.e. a vaccine only for people with some co-morbidities, or only for people age 65+, would not qualify.
* Amendments to existing emergency use authorizations (for example, those issued for Pfizer and Moderns's bivalent vaccines) do not qualify.
* The "new" part of the vaccine must be the part that targets COVID-19. For example, if Pfizer combines one of their vaccines with an RSV and/or flu vaccine and the whole package gets a new separate authorization, that does not qualify.
|
2023-01-10T06:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:00:00Z
|
2024-02-05T18:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14432
|
Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?
|
As the two most populous nations on the planet, both at somewhat similar stages of economic development, the economic prospects of China and India are frequently compared. A [FocusEconomics article](https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/posts/india-vs-china-what-is-the-long-term-outlook-for-asias-two-behemoths) describes their economic history and outlook as follows:
>When considering China and India, in recent decades China has been the more attractive economic prospect. The country’s nominal GDP of USD 18 trillion is roughly six times that of India. China has historically had a larger population. And in the previous decade, China’s real GDP growth outpaced India’s by over 1.5 percentage points annually.
>
>However, the tables are set to be at least partly turned in the coming years. According to IMF data, China’s population is now in decline. By the end of our forecast horizon in 2027, China will have lost 8 million people; In contrast, India will have gained over 75 million and stolen China’s crown as the world’s most populous country. Moreover, India’s real GDP growth will be over 2 percentage points higher than China’s every year over our forecast horizon.
<iframe src="https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&locations=CN-IN&start=2000" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling="no" ></iframe>
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if China's real local currency GDP growth rate exceeds that of India's for the year 2023, according to [data provided by the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN-IN). If China's growth rate to a precision of one decimal place as shown on the linked chart is the same or lower than India's this resolves as **No**
|
2023-02-05T14:01:00Z
|
2023-12-31T18:38:00Z
|
2024-09-04T15:43:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14422
|
Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?
|
The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.
In the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on [several occasions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling), and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.
The US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 "mini-default", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:
>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.
Regarding the 1979 "mini-default" CRS says:
>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.
According to a [CNN article](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/05/economy/debt-ceiling-fight-goldman-sachs/index.html) about the potential for a battle over the debt ceiling in 2023 (published December 5, 2022)
>Even though federal debt is likely to reach the statutory limit in the next few weeks, Goldman Sachs said the Treasury Department should be able to borrow as usual until late February or early March. At that point, the government could tap a stockpile of $500 billion in cash to finance the deficit until August.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the President or Secretary of the Treasury announces that the US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations; OR any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, and Moody's) announce US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations.
Moody's, for example, [defines a sovereign issuer as in default when](https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/defaultresearch/2005600000424157.pdf) one or more of the following conditions are met:
> * 1) There is a missed or delayed disbursement of interest and/or principal, even if the delayed payment is made within the grace period, if any.
> * 2) A distressed exchange occurs, where:
> > * a) The issuer offers bondholders a new security or package of securities that amount to a diminished financial obligation such as new debt instruments with lower coupon or par value.
> > * b) The exchange had the apparent purpose of helping the borrower avoid a "stronger" event of default (such as a missed interest or principal payment)
|
2023-01-10T15:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14420
|
Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14457/accredited-us-course-on-ai-assisted-writing/)
---
In the context of Large Language Models (LLMs), prompts are inputs, to which the LLM responds. "Prompt-engineering" refers to the art of crafting inputs so as to increase the chance of getting a desired output.
Prompt-engineering has been used to get LLMs to do many things, e.g. write code, circumvent LLM safety mechanisms, and achieve higher performance on mathematics and science problems (e.g. [chain-of-thought prompting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903))
An [online course on Prompt Engineering](https://learnprompting.org/) already seems to exist, but it's unclear how substantial it is and it does not seem to be affiliated with any university.
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if an accredited US college or university completes the instruction of such a course for credit before January 1, 2024. Resolution will be determined according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) available before February 1, 2024.
Fine Print: A course on AI-assisted writing would be considered distinct, and would not qualify.
The instruction period (i.e. the time interval between the first and last lecture) must be longer than 60 days.
Prompt engineering must be the main focus of the course according to the university's course listing and/or the course website.
Link: [List of accredited US universities](https://www.4icu.org/us/a-z/)
|
2023-01-10T22:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00Z
|
2024-02-01T17:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14413
|
Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: NATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion. This includes drones such as the [Bayraktar TB2](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-turkish-baykar-tb2-drone-gave-ukraine-edge-against-russia-2022-9?r=US&IR=T), anti-tank weapons like the [NLAW](https://defbrief.com/2022/04/28/uk-speeds-up-nlaw-purchases-after-missile-deliveries-to-ukraine/), artillery and long-range rocket systems like the [HIMARS](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20has%20supplied%20at,HIMARS%20rockets%20provided%20to%20Ukraine.), and air-defence systems like the [Patriot systems](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-us-regaining-escalation-dominance/#:~:text=The%20addition%20of%20the%20Patriot,heights%20up%20to%2079%2C000ft.).
Poland has also sent over [200 Soviet-designed T-72 main battle tanks](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-29/card/poland-has-sent-more-than-200-tanks-to-ukraine-Krwar3DCPzHJJk4UMVh4#:~:text=The%20T%2D72%20tanks%20were,benefactor%20within%20the%20European%20Union.). However, Ukraine has so far not received any NATO/Western main battle tanks. Main battle tanks (MBTs) are armored fighting vehicles designed for front-line combat, characterized by heavy armor, high mobility, and powerful armament. NATO MBTs are generally considered to be some of the best in the world.
In early 2023, France promised to deliver [light battle tanks]( https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-tanks-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-europe/) to Ukraine (MX-10 RC armored fighting vehicles), which has also led to the US and Germany promising to send [armored infantry fighting vehicles](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/05/germany-tanks-ukraine-russia-war) to Ukraine.
And while the [‘Death of the Tank’](https://cepa.org/article/the-tanks-death-has-been-exaggerated/) has been a hotly debated topic for over [four decades now](https://medium.com/war-is-boring/why-the-death-of-the-tank-is-greatly-exaggerated-751f5ccd091), the prospect of Western main battle tanks could be [“a major boost to their battlefield capability”](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/12/01/nato-chief-hints-at-sending-modern-tanks-to-ukraine/), which is something that the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg has [“hinted at”.](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/12/01/nato-chief-hints-at-sending-modern-tanks-to-ukraine/)
According to a [European Security & Defence](https://euro-sd.com/2021/09/articles/exclusive/23961/main-battle-tanks-mbts-in-nato/) report from 2021 and [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_equipment_of_NATO), the following main battle tanks are currently in use in the NATO alliance and make up the vast majority of main battle tanks across the current member nations.
***Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country before 2024?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Ukraine is credibly reported to have received any of the standard NATO main battle tanks (including variations): [Abrams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams), [Altay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altay_(main_battle_tank)), [Ariete](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariete), [Challenger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Challenger_2), [Leopard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2), and [Leclerc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leclerc_tank).
This question will resolve as **No** if Ukraine is not reported to have received any of the above listed main battle tanks before January 1, 2024.
[fine-print]
If Ukraine receives further main battle tanks from the Soviet era like the T-72, this will not affect question resolution.
[/fine-print]
|
2023-01-07T11:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2023-02-24T12:52:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14336
|
Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?
|
The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists.
Labour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010.
According to the [Electoral Calculus poll of polls](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html), Labour currently has a 20-point polling lead over the Conservatives, which lead the Government. It has broadly held a polling lead of at least 10 points since September 2022.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve on 1 January 2024 by reference to forecast on the [Electoral Calculus poll of polls](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html). If the Labour Party vote share in "Pred Votes" on that page is at least 10% more than the Conservative Party vote share, this question resolves as **Yes**. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**
|
2023-01-10T12:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14320
|
Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?
|
[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump's social media presence attracted attention since he joined Twitter in 2009. He frequently tweeted during the 2016 election campaign and as president, until his ban in the final days of his term. Over twelve years, Trump posted around 59,000 tweets, often using Twitter as a direct means of communication with the public and side-lining the press. He had accrued more than 88 million followers on the platform before he was [banned in January 2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55597840), following the [storming of the United States Capitol Building.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack)
In October 2022, [Elon Musk completed an acquisition of Twitter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), took over as CEO, and subsequently reversed various account bans, [including the suspension Donald Trump's account,](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63692369) which was reinstated in November 2022. Earlier that month, [Trump had declared his candidacy](https://www.npr.org/2022/11/15/1044234232/trump-announces-run-president-2024) for President of the United States in the 2024 election for that office.
However, as of December 27, 2022, no new tweets have been posted to Donald Trump's profile since his account, [@realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump), was reinstated.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if after December 26, 2022, and prior to March 1, 2023, any new tweets are posted on the @realDonaldTrump Twitter account by Donald Trump, or by persons posting on his behalf.
If the account is hacked or otherwise compromised, according to either Twitter or its representatives, or Donald Trump or his representatives, any posts not sent or authorized by Donald Trump or those posting on his behalf will not count for a positive resolution.
A "new tweet" will consist of a tweet on the @realDonaldTrump account timeline that contains either text, an image, a video, or any combination of those. Retweets of posts, either his own or those of other users, will not count - but quote retweets which include either their own text, image(s), or video(s) will count
|
2022-12-30T05:00:00Z
|
2023-03-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-03-01T16:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14309
|
Will Tether collapse before 2025?
|
[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to present audits showing sufficient asset reserves.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if any of these conditions are true before January 1, 2025:
* Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days on at least two out of the following three exchanges: [Binance](https://www.binance.com/en/price/tether), [Coinbase](https://www.coinbase.com/price/tether), and [Uniswap](https://app.uniswap.org/#/tokens/ethereum/0xdAC17F958D2ee523a2206206994597C13D831ec7).
* Trading of all USDT pairs is suspended for more than 7 days on at least two out of the following three exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, and Uniswap.
* Tether's price as shown on Coingecko falls below 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days.
Fine Print: * The period of 7 days can start any time before December 31, 2024. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2025.
* Edited on March 7, 2023: "Trading any USDT pair will be suspended" was changed to "Trading of all USDT pairs is suspended".
|
2023-01-05T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00Z
|
2025-01-17T02:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14303
|
Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?
|
Microsoft [invested $1B in OpenAI in 2019](https://openai.com/blog/microsoft/), and the OpenAI APIs for Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 are served [from the Microsoft Azure cloud](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/cognitive-services/openai/overview).
OpenAI launched [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) in December 2022 and [claims](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) to have reached more than 1 million users within the first 5 days. There has been speculation that it can greatly improve Search results, and on December 21 [Business Insider reported Google declared a "Code Red" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12).
Many have speculated that LLM results can replace Search results, by returning customized answers as opposed to lists of links (and pre-formatted results like weather boxes or stock charts).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Microsoft announces that some Bing searches will return LLM results, **AND** if Metaculus Admins can easily see such results in a Bing search before September 30, 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: * Whether a model used in Bing Search is considered a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.
* Whether Bing "returns LLM results" will be determined by their nature, i.e. several sentences of text (possibly with links embedded throughout), as opposed to a current typical Bing search result with a link on top and a fixed summary of the content below. A telltale sign will be if the interface is conversational.
|
2022-12-27T06:00:00Z
|
2023-09-30T19:00:00Z
|
2023-04-19T17:11:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14301
|
Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?
|
Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called [PaLM](https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/04/pathways-language-model-palm-scaling-to.html) and Deep Mind announced [Gopher](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/language-modelling-at-scale-gopher-ethical-considerations-and-retrieval).
None of these models have been publicly available, however, unlike OpenAI's ChatGPT (public, free, no API) or OpenAI's GPT-3 (public, paid, has an API). Google has shared an "AI Test Kitchen" in 2022 with an LLM called [LaMDA](https://blog.google/technology/ai/lamda/), but available only to [limited partners](https://mezha.media/en/2022/08/30/google-opens-the-beta-version-of-its-ai-lamda-you-can-apply-for-its-testing/).
On Dec 21, 2022, [Business Insider reported Google declared a "Code Red" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Google or DeepMind provide a public web or app interface (free or paid) for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: * Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.
* "Public" here means not a private beta - while there may be a waitlist or rate limiting, members of the public must be able to sign up and use it.
|
2022-12-26T08:00:00Z
|
2023-03-31T19:00:00Z
|
2023-03-21T13:49:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14298
|
Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?
|
OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.
[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They [claim to have reached more than 1 million users](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) within the first 5 days.
As of Dec 23, 2022, OpenAI has only the web interface for ChatGPT, requiring the user to sign in and with other basic limitations. There is no API for making programmatic calls to ChatGPT. There is a [paid API for GPT-3](https://openai.com/api/).
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2023, an API for ChatGPT (with that name) is publicly available according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). For the purposes of this question the API will be considered publicly available if a paid or free version is available to the general public
|
2022-12-26T06:00:00Z
|
2023-03-31T19:01:00Z
|
2023-03-01T19:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14297
|
Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?
|
Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called [PaLM](https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/04/pathways-language-model-palm-scaling-to.html) and Deep Mind announced [Gopher](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/language-modelling-at-scale-gopher-ethical-considerations-and-retrieval).
None of these models have been publicly available, however, unlike OpenAI's [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) (public, free, but no API) or OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) (public, paid, has an API). Google has shared an "AI Test Kitchen" in 2022 with an LLM called [LaMDA](https://blog.google/technology/ai/lamda/), but available only to [limited partners](https://mezha.media/en/2022/08/30/google-opens-the-beta-version-of-its-ai-lamda-you-can-apply-for-its-testing/).
On Dec 21, 2022, [Business Insider reported Google declared a "Code Red" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Google or DeepMind provide a public API (free or paid) for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: * Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.
* "Public" here means not a private beta - while there may be a waitlist or rate limiting, members of the public (in one or more countries) must be able to sign up and use it.
|
2022-12-26T06:00:00Z
|
2023-03-31T19:00:00Z
|
2023-04-01T15:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14295
|
Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?
|
Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:
>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.
With the release of [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) there has [been speculation](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/15/23509014/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-openai-language-models-ai-risk-google) about the impact these increasingly capable LLMs will have on society.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, a bill is introduced in either the US House or US Senate which would impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models.
* Forbids their creation
* Sets limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with.
* Prevents their use for certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
* Restricts the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restricts US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
* The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
* An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Resolution will be determined according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) and cursory keyword searches of [GovTrack.us](GovTrack.us).
Fine Print: * Edited by RyanBeck on January 14, 2023 to add the two sub-bullets under the export bullet point and the sentence about how resolution will be determined.
|
2022-12-28T08:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-02T22:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14294
|
Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?
|
Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:
>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.
With the release of [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) there has [been speculation](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/15/23509014/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-openai-language-models-ai-risk-google) about the impact these increasingly capable LLMs will have on society.
One potential impact could be the use of LLMs to impersonate customers and account owners in the finance industry, such as by evading bank security protocols via chat support.
[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_banks_in_the_United_States) the bank [JPMorgan Chase](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPMorgan_Chase) is the largest in the US by total assets and market capitalization. JPMorgan Chase is the parent company to its consumer and commercial banking subsidiary [Chase Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chase_Bank).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Chase Bank sends a notice to some customers that it has made updates to its security protocols to address the risk posed by social engineering LLM attacks. The notice must appear to customers either via email, letter, or as a notice when accessing online accounts, and must specifically reference updates to security protocols and the need for these updates based on AI-based impersonation attempts or social engineering. Resolution will be determined according to information available from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) on or before Jan 1, 2024.
Fine Print: * Metaculus will use its judgment to determine if a potential notice to customers satisfies the above criteria. The notice must clearly and unambiguously mention an AI-related social engineering threat in connection to the decision to update its security protocols. For example, the following non-exhaustive list of terms could qualify:
* "chatbot"
* "transformer"
* "language model"
* "deep learning model"
|
2022-12-28T08:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-04T17:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14290
|
Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?
|
On the 28th of May, 2020, OpenAI released GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities, and in December 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, widely considered to be "GPT-3.5".
OpenAI has several paid APIs with similar output to GPT-3, the "most powerful" of which is Davinci, at $0.0200 / 1k tokens (a token is ~0.75 words). Such an API doesn't count as a "subscription". Github offers Copilot, a powerful model for code generation, for $10/month, which would count as a "subscription" (i.e. flat fee to access a service with a UI, like standard SaaS, with unlimited use subject to certain rate limits). Such a service could be the existing ChatGPT interface, which as of Dec 25, 2022 is free to use.
Resolution Criteria: Will resolve according to public communication and [pricing page](https://openai.com/api/pricing/) from OpenAI.
This question resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI offers such a subscription with such a price to the general public. If OpenAI does not offer a subscription to ChatGPT, or offers a subscription that costs >$25/month, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: If there are multiple tiers, resolves if _any_ tier is <$25/month, as long as that tier is open to the general public (i.e. a pricing tier just for students would not qualify).
|
2022-12-28T08:00:00Z
|
2023-06-30T09:00:00Z
|
2023-02-10T20:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14280
|
In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>This question resolves positively if some person or group credibly announces the existence of an AI that can generate appropriate videos at least 10 seconds long from arbitrary prompts (similar to the way DALL-E generates images from arbitrary prompts) and provides examples.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14279
|
In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>This will resolve positively if a major news source reports that an AI entered a programming competition with at least two other good participants, and won the top prize. A good participant will be defined as someone who could be expected to perform above the level of an average big tech company employee; if there are at least twenty-five participants not specifically selected against being skilled, this will be considered true by default. The competition could be sponsored by the AI company as long as it meets the other criteria and is generally considered fair.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14278
|
In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>For reference, the last three were monkeypox, COVID, and Ebola.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14277
|
In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>A deepfake is defined as any sophisticated AI-generated image, video, or audio meant to mislead. For this question to resolve positively, it must actually harm someone, not just exist. Valid forms of harm include but are not limited to costing someone money, or making some specific name-able person genuinely upset (not just “for all we know, people could have seen this and been upset by it”). The harm must come directly from the victim believing the deepfake, so somebody seeing the deepfake and being upset because the existence of deepfakes makes them sad does not count.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-03-05T02:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14276
|
In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?
|
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-03-05T02:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14275
|
On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Scott Alexander will spend some time January 1 checking whether he can get via his house in Oakland to the Presidio in San Francisco via self-driving car at rush hour. He will probably not actually take the trip, but he will resolve this as positive if it looks like he could take the trip with less than one hour of figuring out how and less than $500 cost. Currently (late 2022) he estimates he cannot do this, because the self-driving taxis in SF only operate at night and won’t cross the bridge into Oakland.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-03-05T02:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14274
|
In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>An AR (Augmented Reality) headset is defined as a wearable where the user can see through it (unlike a VR headset) to the outside world, and it adds new visual information on top of what the viewer sees. It’s not sufficient to have glasses that have functionality like taking pictures, or that modify the visual field with filters. The new visual information must be in some way based on what the user is doing or seeing. Microsoft Hololens would qualify, but is already extant. Must be released by one of Meta, Google, Apple, Amazon specifically, and must be available for purchase by the public in some capacity.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:11:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14273
|
In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less than 50%.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14272
|
Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>According to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14271
|
In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?
|
Scott Alexander wrote:
> See https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet . Scott and Edwin will try to get the top image models of late 2023 to try the specific questions in the bet. If we can’t access the models, then Edwin can use public demos of the image models and his own best guess to resolve this as either likely true, likely false, or unclear. Edwin believes current AI models have not won the bet, so if there is no clear progress he should resolve the bet false. If Edwin is unwilling to judge this, Gary Marcus will be used as the substitute; if neither of these two people will do it, the question resolves as unclear.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander.
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-14T19:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14270
|
In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?
|
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T16:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14269
|
In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>This resolves as positive if Open-AI publishes a paper or webpage implicitly declaring GPT-4 “released” or “complete”, showcasing some examples of what it can do, and offering some form of use in some reasonable timescale to some outside parties (researchers, corporate partners, people who want to play around with it, etc). A product is “GPT-4” if it is either named GPT-4, or is a clear successor to GPT-3 to a degree similar to how GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2 (and not branded as a newer version of GPT-3, eg ChatGPT3).
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-03-14T15:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14268
|
On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least one large exchange without an intermediate fiat step. If a company has announced this, they do not need to have implemented the payment system by the resolution date for the question to resolve positive, as long as they are still widely expected to do so. This question is about the state of the world on 1/1/24; if a company announces this but then backtracks before then, it will not qualify.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T07:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14267
|
Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?
|
*Related question on Metaculus:*
* [What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14034/us-monthly-u-3-unemployment-rate/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14266
|
In 2023, will Tether de-peg?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will count Tether as “de-pegged” if it spends at least one full day below 98 cents at any point during 2023.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T18:25:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14265
|
Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?
|
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14264
|
Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14263
|
Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-12-29T08:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14262
|
In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?
|
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-12-29T21:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14261
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?
|
To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>IE will it end the year higher than it began?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-12-29T21:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14260
|
Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?
|
*Related question on Metaculus:*
* [What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13973/us-annual-headline-cpi-inflation/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14259
|
Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>To resolve using https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T21:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14258
|
Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>To be resolved using https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ . If not all four quarters of data are available in January 2024 when we resolve this question, we will compare however many quarters of 2023 are available to their 2022 equivalents.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T20:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14257
|
On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>If there is no publicly available data about ownership stakes, this will resolve positively unless there is some strong reason to think he is no longer majority owner.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14256
|
In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?
|
*Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the UK hold its next general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14255
|
On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will the UK hold its next general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14253
|
In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?
|
*Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/)
* [Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10832/donald-trump-jailed-by-2030/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-03-30T23:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14252
|
On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?
|
Resolution Criteria: *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)
* [If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8483/trump-victory-if-biden-v-trump-2024/)
* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)
----
***On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating?***
To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ . Currently he is at 51% disapprove, 43% approve, so his approval - disapproval is -8 and this question would resolve as "no".
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander.
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14251
|
On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)
* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14250
|
On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)
* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
> If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14249
|
On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)
* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Please note that this questions resolves differently (based on control over the train station's location) than a similar Metaculus question. The latter question, which can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/), resolves based on control of 50% of Sevastopol's territory.
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14248
|
On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14247
|
On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14228
|
On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14182
|
In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?
|
.
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-08-25T01:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14181
|
In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?
|
*Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10441/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/)
* [Will the US Supreme Court change its membership size before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/scotus-changes-size-before-2050/)
* [Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-count-decline/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Most likely justices dying or resigning, but court packing would also qualify.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14126
|
Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will there be a major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive-in-northern-ukraine/)
---
From the Wikipedia article [2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine&oldid=1127520037):
>On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II.
>. . .
>Russian attacks were initially launched on a northern front from Belarus towards Kyiv, a north-eastern front towards Kharkiv, a southern front from Crimea, and a south-eastern front from Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia's advance towards Kyiv stalled in March, with Russian troops retreating from the northern front by April. On the southern and south-eastern fronts, Russia captured Kherson in March and then Mariupol in May after a siege. On 19 April, Russia launched a renewed attack on the Donbas region, with Luhansk Oblast fully captured by 3 July. Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensives in the south in August, and in the northeast in September. In November, Ukraine retook the city of Kherson.
In December, there were reports about an upcoming Russian offensive.
[The Economist: A looming Russian offensive](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/12/15/a-looming-russian-offensive)
> Russia is massing men and arms for a new offensive. As soon as January, but more likely in the spring, it could launch a big attack from Donbas in the east, from the south or even from Belarus, a puppet state in the north. Russian troops will aim to drive back Ukrainian forces and could even stage a second attempt to take Kyiv, the capital.
[The Economist: An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces](https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript)
> Valery Zaluzhny: Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.
[The Institute for the Study of War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15)
> Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.
> Putin continues to pursue maximalist goals in Ukraine using multiple mechanisms intended to compel Ukrainians to negotiate on Russia’s terms and likely make preemptive concessions highly favorable to Russia.
For more information about large cities in Ukraine see the Wikipedia article [List of cities in Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Ukraine) and the map below.
<img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png" alt="map of Ukrainian cities with populations indicated" />
*<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png">Lencer</a>, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russia manages to capture or surround at least one *large* Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023, according to [The Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org) (ISW). A *large* city is a city with pre-war population of at least 100,000. Metaculus will interpret the assessment by ISW for qualifying cities that ISW describes as "captured" or "surrounded" or similar terms, or which are shown on maps from ISW to be clearly surrounded or within territory which ISW has indicated to be within an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory.
Examples of such cities closest to the frontline are: **Sumy, Kharkiv, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson**.
Fine Print: * Cities that were under Russian control as of December 21, 2022 do not affect the resolution of this question (based on [ISW's December 21, 2022 assessment](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-21))
* If the map and characterization in the text of the assessment conflict, the text will be favored.
* Language such as "Russia likely captured" the qualifying city will be sufficient for resolution.
|
2022-12-26T06:00:00Z
|
2023-05-31T21:00:00Z
|
2023-06-01T17:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14062
|
Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?
|
*Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4734/will-the-us-ban-tiktok-by-the-end-of-the-year/)
----
In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American cannot do all of the following:
* download the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention)
* similarly for the iOS App Store
* use the app if it was previously downloaded (the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store)
The above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.
Fine Print: * Clarification issued on March 10, 2023: The line quoted below was added:
>The above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.
|
2022-12-19T06:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14033
|
Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/)
---
[Binance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binance) is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in 2017. Originally based in China, it is reportedly registered in the Cayman Islands.
Binance temporarily halted trading on Tuesday, December 13, 2022, and [according to CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/binance-ceo-cz-deposits-coming-back-in-but-bumpy-road-ahead.html) its CEO, Changpeng Zhao (often referred to as "CZ"), stated in an internal memo:
>While we expect the next several months to be bumpy, we will get past this challenging period – and we’ll be stronger for having been through it.
In addition to the trading halt Binance has been under a long-running investigation by the US Department of Justice which is [reportedly nearing its conclusion](https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/12/12/binance-investigation-stalls-doj-disagrees/).
The collapse of FTX has raised concerns about the broader health of crypto organizations. FTX, headquartered in the Bahamas, [filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/sam-bankman-frieds-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-files-for-bankruptcy.html) on November 11, 2022. Prior to filing for bankruptcy FTX was often seen as a "lender of last resort" and signed several deals to purchase other crypto firms or that included the option to purchase, [such as with BlockFi](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/ftx-signs-a-deal-giving-it-the-option-to-buy-crypto-lender-blockfi-.html).
[According to the legal firm Norton Rose Fulbright](https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/8ef0322b/proposed-legislation-may-trip-up-international-bankruptcy-filings-in-the-united-states), foreign companies often seek US bankruptcy protection due to favorable conditions and a low threshold for eligibility:
>A large driver of the US Bankruptcy Courts’ popularity has been ease of access. The statutes that define the parameters of who can be a Chapter 11 debtor, and what court may oversee the restructuring, are extremely broad. Any entity that is domiciled in the US, has a place of business in the US, or has property in the US, may avail itself of Chapter 11. See 11 U.S.C. § 109. A debtor further may file its petition in any venue where it is domiciled (i.e. incorporated), where its principal place of business in the US is located, where its principal assets in the US are located, or in any venue where any of its affiliates can file. See 28 U.S.C. § 1408. In contrast to other countries, the debtor need not be a domestic company to file for bankruptcy in the US Importantly, no threshold or minimum amount of assets located in the US is required to qualify. In fact, courts have considered bank accounts, attorney retainers, and even causes of action owned by a foreign debtor as property in the US for purposes of eligibility. This has allowed many international companies to restructure their debts in the US even though they hold very little assets in the US.
Also see a [supporting analysis by the legal firm Skadden](https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2021/06/quarterly-insights/international-companies-turn-to-us-restructurings). FTX's US filing has produced a [jurisdictional dispute](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/11/16/bahamian-liquidators-say-ftx-wasnt-authorized-to-file-for-bankruptcy-in-the-us/) with regulators in the Bahamas.
***Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Binance or any of its subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy or a similar filing of insolvency in any jurisdiction **OR** Binance has signed a deal to be purchased by or the option to be purchased by another organization, which has been characterized as a bail out, a rescue, or in response to liquidity trouble by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available on or before February 1, 2024.
For the purposes of this question, a filing similar to bankruptcy will be said to have occurred if Binance or any of its subsidiaries have filed under the insolvency law of any jurisdiction, for example [liquidation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidation), [administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administration_(law)), or [winding up](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands_bankruptcy_law#Winding_up_of_companies). These examples are not exhaustive, and any insolvency related filing in any jurisdiction considered, in the judgment of Metaculus, to be broadly similar will be sufficient.
[fine-print]
The purchase or option to purchase by another organization on its own will not be sufficient, the purchase or option to purchase must be characterized by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) as in response to liquidity or other problems as described.
[/fine-print]
|
2022-12-18T08:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2024-02-01T16:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14032
|
In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will judge casualties for the Ukraine war based on the sum of the UN estimate of civilian deaths + injuries, plus each side's report of the other side's deaths + injuries. See eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Field_casualties_and_injuries . We reserve the right to change this if one side starts giving implausible numbers. When a range is offered, the midpoint of the range will be taken. If there is no easy way to determine which Ukraine casualties happened in 2022 vs. 2023, the current total of 225,216 will be subtracted from the best available end-of-2023 number. The casualty numbers for other wars will be calculated in a method as similar to this as possible; if an identical methodology cannot be used, we reserve the right to use credible third-party (eg US government, well-known neutral media outlet) estimates.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-03-05T02:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-14031
|
In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9573/scotus-ends-racial-preferences-in-admissions/)
* [Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10834/affirmative-action-banned-in-us-by-2035/)
* [Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9572/scotus-rules-harvards-admissions-unlawful/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-06-29T17:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13994
|
On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T20:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13990
|
In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will China end Zero-COVID?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13767/chinese-cessation-of-zero-covid-policy/)
* [When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10936/china-to-reach-250k-covid-cases-per-day/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Based on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T07:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13989
|
On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12569/crimean-bridge-knocked-out-by-2024/)
* [Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
> As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T07:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13988
|
In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/)
* [Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will make this a judgment call but generally resolve positive if at least 25 civilians have to evacuate.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T20:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13987
|
In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?
|
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T18:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13986
|
In 2023 will any new country join NATO?
|
*Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will any state leave NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8546/withdrawal-from-nato-by-2024/)
* [How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10643/nato-member-states-in-2025/)
* [Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8549/new-nato-member-by-2024/)
* [Will Finland join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/)
* [Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/)
* [Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12733/ukraine-joins-nato-before-2024/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
> Sweden and Finland completing the accession process would count as new countries.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-04-04T14:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13985
|
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?
|
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II.
Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on February 28, March 3, and March 7, 2022, on the Belarus–Ukraine border, with further talks held on March 10 in Turkey prior to a fourth round of negotiations which began on March 14. The Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on July 13 [that peace talks are frozen for the time being](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-rules-out-ceding-territory-russia-secure-peace-2022-07-13/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between December 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as **No** if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2024.
The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes
|
2022-12-13T22:00:00Z
|
2024-01-31T21:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13959
|
On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire. A cease-fire which is signed but then substantially broken before 1/1/24 will not count.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13938
|
In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?
|
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
> Very loosely, an invasion of a scale such that China most likely intended for it to establish direct control over at least half of the island of Taiwan, whether or not they actually accomplish this.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13933
|
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?
|
Resolution Criteria: *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/)
* [Will Russia test a nuclear weapon during the listed years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13125/russian-nuclear-tests-2022-2023/)
* [Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/)
* [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/)
* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)
* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)
* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)
----
***In 2023, will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?***
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander.
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13931
|
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/)
* [Will Russia test a nuclear weapon during the listed years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13125/russian-nuclear-tests-2022-2023/)
* [Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/)
* [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/)
* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)
* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)
* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)
----
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon is launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon does not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that doesn’t count.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13930
|
On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?
|
*Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander
|
2022-12-22T05:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13921
|
Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?
|
[Over summer 2022,](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-lawmakers-unveil-bill-help-news-media-negotiate-with-google-facebook-2022-08-22/) a bipartisan group of US lawmakers unveiled the [Journalism Competition and Preservation Act,](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/673) intended to give an antitrust exemption to news content producers. [This would allow them to negotiate with companies like Google and Meta *en bloc*](https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2022/06/journalism-competition-and-preservation-act-will-produce-neither-competition-nor), with the goal of getting paid every time those sites link to news articles.
But top social media companies and free speech advocates — [groups that usually take opposing views over tech policy](https://rollcall.com/2022/12/06/big-tech-free-speech-advocates-join-to-oppose-journalism-bill/) — came together to oppose it, and a last-ditch effort to include the bill in the must-pass National Defence Authorization Act [was defeated](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-influence/2022/12/06/jcpa-opponents-spring-into-action-to-block-ndaa-inclusion-00072602) by pushback.
According to Emily Shah for Harvard's Journal of Law and Technology,
> [The bipartisan nature of the JCPA reflects general agreement](https://jolt.law.harvard.edu/digest/the-journalism-competition-and-preservation-act-opportunities-and-risks-for-news-content-creators) in Congress for better supporting news organizations and helping rebalance power between content creators and distributors. Several large publishing groups backed the 2019 version of the Act, such the American Society of News Editors, the National Newspaper Association, and the News Media Alliance, which includes The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal. At the same time, proponents of the JCPA hope it would endow smaller, more niche, or local publishers with bargaining power and leverage they might lack individually.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if such an act is endorsed by at least two of the American Society of News Editors, the National Newspaper Association, and the News Media Alliance, and is reported by credible published sources to have the purpose and plausible effect of significantly strengthening US news companies' bargaining position with, at least, Google and Meta, and is signed into law by the President before January 1, 2025
|
2022-12-08T18:50:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2025-01-17T17:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13854
|
Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?
|
In the early 19th century, at the instruction of Thomas Bruce, 7th Earl of Elgin, many of the sculptures of the Greek Parthenon [were removed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elgin_Marbles) from Greece and transported to Britain. As of December 6, 2022, they remain at the [British Museum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Museum). Greece [wants them returned](https://news.artnet.com/art-world/greek-prime-minister-offers-trade-for-parthenon-marbles-2034905).
[Per Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Elgin-Marbles),
> Elgin was a lover of art and antiquities. By his own account, he was concerned about damage being done to important artworks in the temples of Greece, then under Ottoman sway. Fearing that they would eventually be destroyed because of Turkish indifference, he asked permission of the Sublime Porte to have artists measure, sketch, and copy important pieces of sculpture and architectural detail for posterity. At length the request was granted—along with the authority “to take away any pieces of stone with old inscriptions or figures thereon.”
> Elgin then began selecting a vast store of the treasures ...
> ...
> An outcry arose over the affair, and Elgin was assailed for rapacity, vandalism, and dishonesty ...
An older edition has greater detail:
> [Thomas Bruce, 7th earl of Elgin (1766–1841),](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/1911_Encyclop%C3%A6dia_Britannica/Elgin_and_Kincardine,_Earls_of) British diplomatist and art collector, was born on the 20th of July 1766, and in 1771 succeeded his brother in the Scottish peerage as the 7th earl of Elgin (cr. 1633), and 11th of Kincardine (cr. 1647). He was educated at Harrow and Westminster, and, after studying for some time at the university of St Andrews, proceeded to the continent, where he studied international law at Paris, and military science in Germany. When his education was completed he entered the army, in which he rose to the rank of general. His chief attention was, however, devoted to diplomacy. In 1792 he was appointed envoy at Brussels, and in 1795 envoy extraordinary at Berlin; and from 1799 to 1802 he was envoy extraordinary at the Porte.
> It was during his stay at Constantinople that he formed the purpose of removing from Athens the celebrated sculptures now known as the Elgin Marbles. His doing so was censured by some as vandalism, and doubts were also expressed as to the artistic value of many of the marbles; but he [vindicated himself in a pamphlet published in 1810, and entitled Memorandum on the Subject of the Earl of Elgin’s Pursuits in Greece.](https://archive.org/details/memorandumonsubj00hami) In 1816 the collection was purchased by the nation for £36,000, and placed in the British Museum, the outlay incurred by Lord Elgin having been more than £50,000.
----
2022-12-03:
> [Exclusive: Head of British Museum held secret talks with Greek PM, officials to agree deal for Parthenon Marbles’ return](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/exclusive-head-british-museum-held-secret-talks-greek-andritsopoulos/)
> George Osborne, the chair of the British Museum, has been holding secret talks with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis over the last 13 months to negotiate the possible return of the Parthenon Marbles, Greek daily newspaper Ta Nea can exclusively reveal.
> The behind-the-scenes meetings have been taking place in London since November 2021. Osborne has also met with two senior Greek government ministers.
> At least two of those meetings were held at the Greek ambassador's residence in Mayfair. Another one was held as recently as this week at a hotel in Knightsbridge.
The discussions have been kept out of the public eye.
> ...
> The return of Phidias’s masterpieces to Greece was the only topic on the agenda of these meetings.
> ...
> A Greek official said that senior British Museum figures have privately conceded that the sculptures will eventually be restored to Athens as a single work of art. If that happens, Greece intends to lend the British Museum rare ancient Greek artefacts.
> The official said that several solutions are being considered that could ‘set aside’ the ownership issue in a possible deal. They added that there are ways to avoid mentioning ownership in an agreement on the Marbles’ return.
> The British Museum claims to have legal title to the fifth-century B.C. antiquities. Greece, however, maintains that the museum is not the legal owner of the sculptures.
> The museum’s trustees have always insisted that the acceptance of the lending institution’s ownership is a ‘precondition’ for any loan. However, when questioned by Ta Nea in February, its spokesperson stopped short of reiterating the word “precondition”, used by the museum for many years. Instead, they replaced it with the word “normally”. “Borrowers also normally acknowledge that the lender has title to the objects they want to borrow,” the spokesperson said.
----
Lord Elgin was a Scottish representative peer for fifty years. He died at Paris on the 14th of November 1841.
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if certain marble statues are returned to within Greek territory before January 1, 2024, based on reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
* [Wikipedia calls them](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elgin_Marbles), "The Elgin Marbles (/ˈɛlɡɪn/), also known as the Parthenon Marbles (Greek: Γλυπτά του Παρθενώνα, lit. "sculptures of the Parthenon")," and I don't like controversy, so they're Certain Marble Statues, ok?
* Legal questions of ownership may become somewhat fuzzed in this instance, and the fuzzing may be somewhat intentional, so we abide by the ancient roman rule of [Uti possidetis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uti_possidetis); it's just where they are.
* It's surprisingly difficult to get a good inventory on what the marbles even are, physically, so the standard is just 40% by mass. If 40% of the *physical weight* of the Elgin Marbles ends up in Greece at any point between now and the end of 2023
|
2022-12-06T19:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13831
|
Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?
|
"The way we choose our presidential candidates in the United States," [note Galen Druke and Jake Arlow of FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-modern-primary-system-has-shaped-our-politics/), "is unique among the world’s democracies."
> [E]verything changed after the [disastrous 1968 Democratic national convention in Chicago.](https://www.c-span.org/video/?74510-1/1968-democratic-convention) Although somewhat unintended, the reforms following that convention created a candidate selection system more open to public input than ever before.
> At first blush, allowing for greater public input may seem like the most democratic thing to do — but there is more to a well-functioning democracy than whether people have the opportunity to vote. The quality of the system also depends on its design.
Recently, the President of the United States [wrote a letter on non-Presidential stationary to certain officials of his Party.](https://democrats.org/news/president-bidens-letter-to-the-dncs-rules-and-bylaws-committee-on-the-presidential-nominating-process/) Therein, he criticized certain qualities of the present system, and proposed certain changes in its design. Among [other proposals](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/iowa-hosts-first-caucus-by-2029/), Biden wrote:
> Our party should no longer allow caucuses as part of our nominating process. We are a party dedicated to ensuring participation by all voters and for removing barriers to political participation. Caucuses – requiring voters to choose in public, to spend significant amounts of time to caucus, disadvantaging hourly workers and anyone who does not have the flexibility to go to a set location at a set time – are inherently anti-participatory. It should be our party’s goal to rid the nominating process of restrictive, anti-worker caucuses.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve **Yes** if any U.S. state holds caucus- rather than primary-type selection processes for the Democratic nominee for President in 2024, and **No** if this does not happen. If there is doubt or ambiguity about whether a state uses one or the other process, administrators will rely preferentially on [the National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/primary-types.aspx) with [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_election_systems_by_state) as a secondary backstop
|
2022-12-06T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-04-13T14:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13822
|
Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?
|
Resolution Criteria: As of December 2022, [Mitch McConnell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_McConnell) is 80 years old. He has been the US Senate Republican Leader since 2007. He will become the all time [longest serving](https://www.senate.gov/senators/longest-serving-party-leaders.htm) Party Leader in the Senate from either party if he holds the post for another year.
***Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?***
The question resolves as **Yes** if Mitch McConnell resigns, is ousted by his caucus, dies, or for any other reason loses Party Leader status for the Senate Republicans before the next presidential inauguration (currently expected for noon EST on January 20, 2025), according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
|
2022-12-13T06:00:00Z
|
2025-01-20T05:59:00Z
|
2025-01-21T16:13:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13809
|
Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?
|
The London mayoral election is held every four years to elect the Mayor of London, who serves as the head of the Greater London Authority (GLA). The next election is scheduled for [Thursday 2 May 2024](https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/governance-and-spending/good-governance/electing-mayor-and-assembly).
Sadiq Khan has been the mayor of London since 2016, and will run for re-election in 2024. As the incumbent mayor, he will be seeking to continue serving in the role. In late 2022, he said that [“still very much [his] intention to run and win a third term](https://www.cityam.com/khan-says-it-is-my-intention-to-run-and-win-third-term-as-london-mayor/).
According to [smarkets.com](https://smarkets.com/event/42282035/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2024-london-mayoral-election-winner), the top three follow-up candidates for 2024 London mayoral election winner after Sadiq Khan are Jeremy Corbyn, Dawn Butler, and David Lammy.
Previously, London mayoral elections used the supplementary vote system. The supplementary vote system is a method of conducting elections in which voters are allowed to cast two votes for a single office. The first vote is for their preferred candidate, and the second vote is for their second choice. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice votes, they are declared the winner. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the two candidates with the most first-choice votes move on to a second round of voting. In this round, only the second-choice votes of voters who selected one of the two remaining candidates as their first choice are counted. The candidate with the most votes in the second round is declared the winner.
However, for the 2024 mayoral election, based on the Elections Act 2022, the election will be conducted under the [first-past-the-post system.](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-past-the-post-to-be-introduced-for-all-local-mayoral-and-police-and-crime-commissioner-elections) Under this system, each voter gets to cast a ballot for their preferred candidate, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins the election. This means that the winner may not necessarily have received a majority of the votes, but rather just more votes than any other individual candidate.
In the last election, [no candidate received more than 50% of the vote]( https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/results-2021-elections/results-factsheet-2021):
>Had a candidate received more than 50 per cent of the total good first choice votes, they would have been elected without considering second choice votes. No candidate did so. The candidate with the highest number of first choice votes, Sadiq Khan, gained 40 per cent of the total first choice votes for all candidates (1,013,721 as a percentage of 2,531,357).
So far, all London mayors (Livingstone, Johnson, and Khan) have served two terms only. If Sadiq Khan wins the re-election, that would make him the [first mayor of London to have won three terms.](https://www.onlondon.co.uk/labour-candidate-selection-trigger-ballot-for-2024-mayoral-race-gets-underway/)
Resolution Criteria: The resolution criteria for this question are as follows:
This question will resolve positively on the basis of an official election result that is published by a credible news source or government agency that clearly states that Sadiq Khan has been declared the winner and mayor of London.
If any other person wins the election, this question resolves negatively.
If the election is postponed (held after on Jan 1, 2025 or later), held earlier (held on Dec 31, 2023 or earlier), or otherwise cancelled, this question will resolve ambiguously
|
2022-12-11T04:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T12:00:00Z
|
2024-05-04T16:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13789
|
Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?
|
Several major tech companies including Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, have a stake in voice assistant market. Here are their approximate shares of the [120 million people US voice search market](https://bloggingwizard.com/voice-search-statistics/):
* [Google Assistant: 36%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Assistant)
* [Apple Siri: 36%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siri)
* [Amazon Alexa: 25%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Alexa)
* [Microsoft Cortana: 19%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortana_(virtual_assistant))
These voice assistants can currently accept voice input in natural language, which is then routed through carefully curated pattern matching, with predefined answer templates fetching data from various backend services such as weather forecast, alarm clock, calendar, booking systems, sometimes third party vendor integration, sometimes fallback online search. They do not yet support natural, template-free communication outside of those predefined patterns and templates.
On the other hand, there are now multiple LLMs (large language models) that are trained on huge corpus of text, and can produce very natural responses to a broad range of natural language queries:
* [OpenAI GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3)
* [Google LaMDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA)
* [Microsoft Megatron-Turing](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/using-deepspeed-and-megatron-to-train-megatron-turing-nlg-530b-the-worlds-largest-and-most-powerful-generative-language-model/)
* [Amazon AlexaTM](https://www.amazon.science/blog/20b-parameter-alexa-model-sets-new-marks-in-few-shot-learning)
These models are getting very good and practically useful in freeform question answering, content summarization and generation. But the companies [are reluctant](https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/26/22454513/google-future-of-search-conversation-ai-mum-lamda) to integrate them in flagship products, because they are prone to toxicity, bias, and poorly sourced or hallucinated false replies that sound authoritative and can be misleading. But they [have been exploring](https://the-decoder.com/googles-ai-model-lamda-could-become-assistant-2-0/) the potential for using models in this manner in the future.
Recently, [OpenAI ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) conversational text chat agent based on GPT-3 has achieved a good balance of censorship and usefulness, reaching 1,000,000 users in a matter of weeks. OpenAI is optimistic about further improvement and broader deployment of this technology, including a rumored upcoming release of an even more powerful GPT-4 model. So perhaps, the technology is close to being suitable for broad public adoption.
[Google has declared "Code Red" and is rushing out AI integration](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/technology/ai-chatgpt-google-search.html), because [ChatGPT can in many cases answer questions better and faster than a Google search](https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/googles-existential-threat-chatgpt-matches-googles-performance-on-informational-search-queries-and-smashes-it-on-coding).
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if Google Assistant, Apple Siri, Amazon Alexa, or Microsoft Cortana supports freeform dialog for question answering, content summarization, generation, or companionship, beyond scripted template replies, before January 1, 2024. Alternatively, a new freeform voice assistant from another company goes mainstream and reaches at least 10 million users, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
For the purposes of this question, a qualifying voice assistant must support freeform dialog natively either by default or through an enabled option, but not including through a third party app. To qualify, the voice assistant must have typical assistant capabilities beyond verbal responses, for example by setting reminders, timers, or interacting with other applications based on voice commands. Freeform dialog will be considered to be non-scripted responses, determined in a similar manner to an LLM instead of programatically.
Fine Print: * Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.
* In the event of a preview, beta period, or other limited release there must be indication that the freeform dialogue feature is available to at least 10 million users. This includes a limited release that is available to at least 10 million users if they perform some action (such as signing up), even if 10 million users do not actually sign up. If no indication is available regarding the number of users the freeform dialogue feature is available to the question will **not** resolve as **Yes** until it is announced that the feature has been released broadly. A release meeting these criteria that is limited to one country only will also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**. Metaculus will make a determination as to whether there is a sufficient indication that the user threshold has been met.
|
2022-12-26T06:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-30T18:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-13766
|
Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?
|
On Thursday November 24, 2022, a [fire broke out](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63752407) in an apartment building in [Urumqi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cr%C3%BCmqi), the capital of [Xinjiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang) in China. The fire killed ten people and led to [mass protests in China](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63781716) against China's [COVID-Zero policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-COVID) which protestors blame in part for a slow emergency response to the fire. The Chinese government has [attempted to censor protestors and online discussion of the protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63788477).
On Tuesday November 27 it [was reported](https://au.news.yahoo.com/chinese-unis-send-students-home-134728181.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFVwE8v9WsTcWtMPxEiYnT1hAsziIt5ARLcZC9deC3mcUkDnrPEoeUTJDSIcgjv5J-vvA2aQldTzcSlX_IxcrSOFRbuvWFeDKUY0pXAFp2xpP8legPM3KWVUBUwcfQuIeYwmobYHnaMOJRj3MX8cgNabOU3gdSjAlJpkUeFjhzt5#:~:text=Nine%20student%20dorms%20at%20Tsinghua,fear%20of%20retribution%20from%20authorities.) that [Tsinghua University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsinghua_University) in Beijing had closed nine of its dorms and told students they could go home early for the semester, ostensibly due to students testing positive for COVID-19, although it may have been motivated to disperse students and prevent them from [participating in protests](https://www.barrons.com/news/hundreds-protest-covid-lockdowns-at-beijing-s-tsinghua-university-witness-footage-01669533006).
Winter break for undergraduates at Tsinghua University is [scheduled to begin](https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/Campus/Student_Life/Academic_Calendar.htm) January 9, 2022, and the Spring Semester is scheduled to start on February 20, 2023.
Resolution Criteria: This resolves as **Yes** if there are reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of major restrictions on students returning to campus for the beginning of the Spring Semester 2023 at Tsinghua University. This question will resolve using information publicly available before April 1, 2023. This resolves as **No** if there are no reports published by credible sources before that date stating that major restrictions occurred.
For the purposes of this question major restrictions will be those which close at least two student dorm buildings preventing the return of students who would live in those dorms, or which delays the majority of enrolled undergraduate students from returning to campus until 7 or more days after the [semester is scheduled to begin on February 20](https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/Campus/Student_Life/Academic_Calendar.htm).
Fine Print: The language of the resolution criteria was updated on December 4, 2022, by @RyanBeck. The original resolution criteria (**which is no longer valid**) is shown below for reference.
>For the purposes of this question major restrictions will be those which prevent students from returning to at least two student dorm buildings, or which delays students from returning to campus until 7 or more days after the [semester is scheduled to begin on February 20](https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/Campus/Student_Life/Academic_Calendar.htm).
|
2022-12-03T05:00:00Z
|
2023-02-20T05:00:00Z
|
2023-04-01T12:20:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
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