id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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meta-15026 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and C... | 2023-02-04T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T01:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15025 | Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024? | There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and C... | 2023-02-04T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T01:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15014 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | [In August 2022, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). Due to the fraught relations between the US and China regarding Taiwan, the visit attracted considerable media attention and was followed by large-scale Chinese military exercises. ... | 2023-02-09T09:49:00Z | 2023-12-31T06:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T07:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15010 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | As of writing, there is a large outbreak of H5Nx avian influenza among wild birds from the 2.3.4.4b clade. These are primarily H5N1. H5N6 and H5N8 specimens of this clade have previously been common as well. Infections of mammals have been observed, although most of these infections are not generally thought to [indica... | 2023-02-11T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T16:00:00Z | 2025-02-25T14:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15009 | Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024? | As of March 2023, talk has been ongoing in Western countries about [providing Ukraine](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045) with F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. So far, no such jets have been pledged to Ukraine, nor any other Western-made fighter aircraft. Reportedly, Ukraine has a... | 2023-03-13T20:08:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:00:00Z | 2024-01-04T17:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-15003 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian in February 2022, many NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with a variety of military equipment. Overall, [31 countries](https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html) have pledged and/or delivered military aid to Ukraine. This includes a large number of European nations (amo... | 2023-02-05T16:42:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-08-20T16:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14846 | Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season? | So far, the 2022-2023 flu season both [in Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/Weekly-Influenza-Activity-Report.pdf) and [in the U.S. generally](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has been characterized by an unusually early peak in flu activity. For the past several weeks, flu ... | 2023-01-30T18:50:00Z | 2023-07-01T12:00:00Z | 2023-07-07T15:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14845 | Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023? | Two important types of COVID therapeutics are [monoclonal antibodies](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/antivirals-including-antibody-products/anti-sars-cov-2-monoclonal-antibodies/) and [antivirals](https://www.webmd.com/covid/antivirals-covid-19).
As of late 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Adm... | 2023-01-30T18:50:00Z | 2024-01-01T01:00:00Z | 2024-01-04T17:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14840 | Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship? | Magnus Carlsen [declined to defend his title as World Chess Champion](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/20/magnus-carlsen-will-not-defend-his-world-chess-championship-title-in-2023), leaving the championship is vacant.
The International Chess Federation (FIDE) selected the winner and runner-up of the [2022 Ca... | 2023-02-02T01:38:00Z | 2023-05-01T23:00:00Z | 2023-04-30T13:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14831 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | [Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' "collective self defense":
> “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or Nor... | 2023-02-04T19:43:00Z | 2023-12-31T09:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14699 | Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party? | Zimbabwe is scheduled to hold general elections [in 2023](https://www.eisa.org/calendar2023.php). The current president, [Emmerson Mnangagwa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmerson_Mnangagwa), represents the [ZANU-PF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZANU%E2%80%93PF) party, which has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1... | 2023-01-30T00:33:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14664 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14413/nato-tanks-to-ukraine-by-2024/)
---
NATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion... | 2023-01-24T19:30:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-02-08T03:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14657 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | [The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election). Incumbent President [Tsai Ing-wen](https://english.president.gov.tw/Page/40) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was r... | 2023-01-31T04:23:00Z | 2024-04-01T05:01:00Z | 2024-05-20T02:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14656 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Russia and Kazakhstan have a long history of ties, with Russia exerting significant influence in the country due to their shared border - the longest in the world at 7,600km - as well as common language and economic ties. Despite this, Kazakhstan has maintained a multi-faceted diplomatic approach, selling its resources... | 2023-01-31T19:01:00Z | 2023-12-31T16:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T18:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14557 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:
>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual fundi... | 2023-01-21T17:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14544 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Apple reportedly wants to include [blood pressure monitoring within the Apple Watch](https://9to5mac.com/2021/09/01/apple-watch-blood-pressure-temperature-more/). Bloomberg [wrote in April 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-12/apple-targets-watch-blood-pressure-feature-for-2024-after-snags?leadSource... | 2023-01-31T15:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T21:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14535 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | The Australian Capital Territory is governed by a Legislative Assembly with elections held every four years. Elections involve five multi-member electorates, each of which elects five representatives, called MLAs (Member of the Legislative Assembly). Election is through the Hare-Clark proportional representation system... | 2023-01-30T17:25:00Z | 2024-10-18T12:59:00Z | 2024-10-21T17:11:37Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14510 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, with a significant portion of its economy dependent on revenue from oil exports. However, the country has been facing increasing pressure to diversify its economy as much of the world races to decarbonise.
As a [Borgen Project report](https://borgenproject.org... | 2023-01-27T23:54:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-25T16:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14509 | Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024? | OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been des... | 2023-01-19T00:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2023-03-14T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14503 | Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024? | The [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ab... | 2023-01-21T17:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-06-03T16:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14501 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Microsoft's search engine, [Bing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing), was the second most popular search engine after Google in December of 2022, according to [data provided by Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share). Statcounter reports a market share of 92.58% for Google and 3.0... | 2023-01-28T21:47:00Z | 2024-03-31T22:09:00Z | 2024-04-22T03:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14483 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14481/mccarthy-speaker-on-january-1-2024/)
---
[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, ... | 2023-01-21T05:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T04:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T16:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14481 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14483/gop-member-calls-speaker-vote-before-july/)
---
[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected S... | 2023-01-28T21:50:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14457 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14420/accredited-us-prompt-engineering-course/)
---
Large Language Models (LLMs) [are being used to assist in copy-writing](https://... | 2023-01-18T00:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-19T19:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14452 | Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | [Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Orbit) is an American company within the Virgin Group which provides launch services for small satellites. The company was formed in 2017 to develop the air-launched [LauncherOne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LauncherOne) rocket.
The company was spun ... | 2023-02-02T14:55:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-04-04T06:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14450 | Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023? | Many COVID vaccine possibilities are being explored, [including nasal drops](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccines-nasal-sprays-pills-breakthroughs-2023/). Some [have speculated](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25634192-400-why-we-probably-wont-get-new-covid-19-vaccines-in-2023/) that there may be a hig... | 2023-01-10T06:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2024-02-05T18:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14432 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | As the two most populous nations on the planet, both at somewhat similar stages of economic development, the economic prospects of China and India are frequently compared. A [FocusEconomics article](https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/posts/india-vs-china-what-is-the-long-term-outlook-for-asias-two-behemoths) describe... | 2023-02-05T14:01:00Z | 2023-12-31T18:38:00Z | 2024-09-04T15:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14422 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measu... | 2023-01-10T15:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14420 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14457/accredited-us-course-on-ai-assisted-writing/)
---
In the context of Large Language Models (LLMs), prompts are inputs, to which... | 2023-01-10T22:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T21:59:00Z | 2024-02-01T17:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14413 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Resolution Criteria: NATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion. This includes drones such as the [Bayraktar TB2](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-turkish-baykar-tb2-drone-gave-ukraine-edge-against-russia-2022-9?r=US&IR=T), anti-tank wea... | 2023-01-07T11:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2023-02-24T12:52:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14336 | Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024? | The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists.
Labour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having... | 2023-01-10T12:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14320 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | [Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump's social media presence attracted attention since he joined Twitter in 2009. He frequently tw... | 2022-12-30T05:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T16:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14309 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | [Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to present audits show... | 2023-01-05T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T23:59:00Z | 2025-01-17T02:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14303 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Microsoft [invested $1B in OpenAI in 2019](https://openai.com/blog/microsoft/), and the OpenAI APIs for Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 are served [from the Microsoft Azure cloud](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/cognitive-services/openai/overview).
OpenAI launched [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org... | 2022-12-27T06:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-04-19T17:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14301 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Br... | 2022-12-26T08:00:00Z | 2023-03-31T19:00:00Z | 2023-03-21T13:49:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14298 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been des... | 2022-12-26T06:00:00Z | 2023-03-31T19:01:00Z | 2023-03-01T19:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14297 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Br... | 2022-12-26T06:00:00Z | 2023-03-31T19:00:00Z | 2023-04-01T15:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14295 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is no formal defin... | 2022-12-28T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-02T22:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14294 | Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? | Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is no formal defin... | 2022-12-28T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-04T17:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14290 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | On the 28th of May, 2020, OpenAI released GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities, and in December 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, widely considered to be "GPT-3.5".
OpenAI has several paid APIs with similar output to GPT-3, the "most powerful" of which is ... | 2022-12-28T08:00:00Z | 2023-06-30T09:00:00Z | 2023-02-10T20:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14280 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>This question resolves positively if some person or group credibly announces the existence of an AI that can generate appropriate videos at least 10 seconds long from arbitrary prompts (similar to the way DALL-E generates images from arbitrary prom... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14279 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>This will resolve positively if a major news source reports that an AI entered a programming competition with at least two other good participants, and won the top prize. A good participant will be defined as someone who could be expected to perf... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14278 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>For reference, the last three were monkeypox, COVID, and Ebola.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More informa... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14277 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>A deepfake is defined as any sophisticated AI-generated image, video, or audio meant to mislead. For this question to resolve positively, it must actually harm someone, not just exist. Valid forms of harm include but are not limited to costing so... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-03-05T02:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14276 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predicti... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-03-05T02:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14275 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Scott Alexander will spend some time January 1 checking whether he can get via his house in Oakland to the Presidio in San Francisco via self-driving car at rush hour. He will probably not actually take the trip, but he will resolve this as positiv... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-03-05T02:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14274 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>An AR (Augmented Reality) headset is defined as a wearable where the user can see through it (unlike a VR headset) to the outside world, and it adds new visual information on top of what the viewer sees. It’s not sufficient to have glasses that hav... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14273 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less ... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14272 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>According to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14271 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Scott Alexander wrote:
> See https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet . Scott and Edwin will try to get the top image models of late 2023 to try the specific questions in the bet. If we can’t access the models, then Edwin can use public demos of the image models and his... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-14T19:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14270 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predic... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T16:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14269 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>This resolves as positive if Open-AI publishes a paper or webpage implicitly declaring GPT-4 “released” or “complete”, showcasing some examples of what it can do, and offering some form of use in some reasonable timescale to some outside parties (r... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-03-14T15:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14268 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T07:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14267 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14034/us-monthly-u-3-unemployment-rate/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexande... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14266 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will count Tether as “de-pegged” if it spends at least one full day below 98 cents at any point during 2023.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-conte... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T18:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14265 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predicti... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14264 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the con... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14263 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the con... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-29T08:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14262 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predic... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-29T21:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14261 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>IE will it end the year higher than it began?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the con... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-29T21:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14260 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13973/us-annual-headline-cpi-inflation/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://as... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14259 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>To resolve using https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest)... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14258 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>To be resolved using https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ . If not all four quarters of data are available in January 2024 when we resolve this question, we will compare however many quarters of 2023 are availabl... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T20:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14257 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>If there is no publicly available data about ownership stakes, this will resolve positively unless there is some strong reason to think he is no longer majority owner.
This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](http... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14256 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the UK hold its next general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest)... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14255 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will the UK hold its next general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in h... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14253 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/)
* [Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10832/donald-trump-jailed-by-2030/)
... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-03-30T23:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14252 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Resolution Criteria: *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)
* [If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/84... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14251 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)
* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.meta... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14250 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)
* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.meta... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14249 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)
* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.meta... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14248 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-elec... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14247 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-elec... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14228 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-el... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14182 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | .
Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.
This quest... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-08-25T01:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-14181 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10441/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/)
* [Will the US Supreme Court change its membership size before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/scotus-changes-size-before-205... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14126 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will there be a major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive-in-northern-ukraine/)
---
From the Wikipedia article [2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org... | 2022-12-26T06:00:00Z | 2023-05-31T21:00:00Z | 2023-06-01T17:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14062 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4734/will-the-us-ban-tiktok-by-the-end-of-the-year/)
----
In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under ... | 2022-12-19T06:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14033 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Resolution Criteria: *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/)
---
[Binance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binance) is a cryptocurrency ex... | 2022-12-18T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2024-02-01T16:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14032 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>We will judge casualties for the Ukraine war based on the sum of the UN estimate of civilian deaths + injuries, plus each side's report of the other side's deaths + injuries. See eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#F... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-03-05T02:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-14031 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9573/scotus-ends-racial-preferences-in-admissions/)
* [Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?](https://www.metacu... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-06-29T17:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-13994 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)
* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-el... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T20:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13990 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will China end Zero-COVID?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13767/chinese-cessation-of-zero-covid-policy/)
* [When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10936/china-to-reach-250k-covid-cases-per-day/)
----
R... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T07:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13989 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12569/crimean-bridge-knocked-out-by-2024/)
* [Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T07:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13988 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/)
* [Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-inciden... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T20:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13987 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).
Predicti... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T18:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13986 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will any state leave NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8546/withdrawal-from-nato-by-2024/)
* [How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10643/nato-member-states-in-2025/)
* [Will an additional state join NATO bef... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-04-04T14:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-13985 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II.
Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on F... | 2022-12-13T22:00:00Z | 2024-01-31T21:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13959 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
>A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13938 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Resolution Criteria: To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:
> Very loosely, an invasion of a scale such that China most likely intended for it to establish direct control over at least half of the island of Taiwan, whether or not they actually accomplish this.
This question will resolve at the exclusive... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13933 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Resolution Criteria: *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/)
* [Will Russia test a nuclear weapon during the listed years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13125/russian-nuc... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13931 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/)
* [Will Russia test a nuclear weapon during the listed years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13125/russian-nuclear-tests-2022-2023/... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13930 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott ... | 2022-12-22T05:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-13921 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | [Over summer 2022,](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-lawmakers-unveil-bill-help-news-media-negotiate-with-google-facebook-2022-08-22/) a bipartisan group of US lawmakers unveiled the [Journalism Competition and Preservation Act,](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/673) intended to... | 2022-12-08T18:50:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2025-01-17T17:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13854 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | In the early 19th century, at the instruction of Thomas Bruce, 7th Earl of Elgin, many of the sculptures of the Greek Parthenon [were removed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elgin_Marbles) from Greece and transported to Britain. As of December 6, 2022, they remain at the [British Museum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Br... | 2022-12-06T19:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13831 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | "The way we choose our presidential candidates in the United States," [note Galen Druke and Jake Arlow of FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-modern-primary-system-has-shaped-our-politics/), "is unique among the world’s democracies."
> [E]verything changed after the [disastrous 1968 Democrati... | 2022-12-06T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-04-13T14:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-13822 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Resolution Criteria: As of December 2022, [Mitch McConnell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_McConnell) is 80 years old. He has been the US Senate Republican Leader since 2007. He will become the all time [longest serving](https://www.senate.gov/senators/longest-serving-party-leaders.htm) Party Leader in the Senate ... | 2022-12-13T06:00:00Z | 2025-01-20T05:59:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-13809 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | The London mayoral election is held every four years to elect the Mayor of London, who serves as the head of the Greater London Authority (GLA). The next election is scheduled for [Thursday 2 May 2024](https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/governance-and-spending/good-governance/electing-mayor-and-assembly).
Sadiq Khan... | 2022-12-11T04:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T12:00:00Z | 2024-05-04T16:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-13789 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Several major tech companies including Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, have a stake in voice assistant market. Here are their approximate shares of the [120 million people US voice search market](https://bloggingwizard.com/voice-search-statistics/):
* [Google Assistant: 36%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_... | 2022-12-26T06:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-30T18:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-13766 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | On Thursday November 24, 2022, a [fire broke out](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63752407) in an apartment building in [Urumqi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cr%C3%BCmqi), the capital of [Xinjiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang) in China. The fire killed ten people and led to [mass protests in... | 2022-12-03T05:00:00Z | 2023-02-20T05:00:00Z | 2023-04-01T12:20:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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