Datasets:
collingray
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forecasting

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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mani-2JggjgbqBK53hEkUeMvS
Inflation in Germany down to 2% in 2023?
The consumer price index (Verbraucherpreise) in Germany in February 2023 was +8.7% compared to February 2022. The other (non consumer price) indices are falling in the last months as reported by Destatis: [image]2% is the target value of the european central bank (ECB) for the Euro zone. Some economists, like Heiner Flassbeck, predict that we might go below 2.% by July already. Resolves YES, if the "Verbraucherpreise" index reported by Destatis is 2.0% or lower in any single month in 2023. Resolves NO, if the "Verbraucherpreise" index is above 2.0% for all of 2023.
2023-03-21T09:56:24
2024-01-16T09:01:04
2024-01-16T09:01:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gKz3w5O0ohYWtvyH0NBu
Will Bryan Caplan concede his AI bet with Matthew Barnett by June 1, 2023?
This market resolves to "YES" if and when Bryan Caplan publicly concedes his AI bet with Matthew Barnett. The central case would be Caplan declaring that the central bet criterion has been met, and that an AI has gotten an A on five out of six of his most recent midterm exams, as specified in Caplan's post and this related market. But it will also resolves "Yes" if Caplan 'concedes' early and pays Barnett or promises to. This market resolves to "NO" if they have not publicly resolved the bet by EOD June 1 2023. If Matthew Barnett thinks the bet should have already resolved but Caplan has not conceded, it will still resolve NO. Background: https://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an In the above post of March 21, Caplan admits that GPT-4 getting an A on one of his exams is a big update and bodes ill for his bet. But he writes "I’m not conceding the bet, because I still think there’s a 10-15% chance I win via luck." This market is about whether Caplan's luck will hold out for ~two more months.
2023-03-21T09:24:33
2023-06-01T20:59:00
2023-06-01T21:25:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-D4kvkTcLBtejWKV587RL
Will the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists move the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight in 2024
As of this writing, the current (2023) Doomsday Clock from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is set to 90 seconds to midnight: https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/ . The closer the Doomsday Clock is to midnight, the closer the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists thinks that humanity is to existential risk or global catastrophe (such as nuclear war, extreme climate change, biological threats, etc). This market will resolve YES if by March 2024, the Bulletin publishes an announcement that they have moved the Doomsday Clock to strictly less than 90 seconds to midnight. Otherwise (including if the clock stays at 90 seconds), the market will resolve to NO. This market is agnostic to the reasons as to why the Bulletin decides to move or not move the Doomsday Clock. For example, this market is not conditional on the Bulletin moving the Clock due to increases/decreases from risk due to AI (or other possible risks like climate change, nuclear war, etc.)
2023-03-21T09:08:45
2024-01-26T12:27:00
2024-01-26T12:27:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZCxjacYJhntp3b9VatpW
Will Trump be arrested or indicted by Tuesday, March 28 2023?
Was Trump referring to the following Tuesday? Can be from any level of government in the US. Must be on or before Tuesday, March 28 11:59 PM EDT. If announcement comes after this time but claims action happened within the time window this market resolves "Yes", May wait a few days to make sure this isn't the case.
2023-03-21T07:47:09
2023-03-29T04:51:57
2023-03-29T04:51:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UfupcN3ZUQyyiGeJFKsF
Will China be successful in brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine?
On 20–22 March 2023, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, visited Russia to discuss a peace proposal and cease fire for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-meets-dear-friend-xi-kremlin-ukraine-war-grinds-2023-03-20/ A peace proposal would be considered as successful if both Russia and Ukraine announce that they agree to China's terms. If either party rejects the peace proposal, that would mean that China failed. We will go by mainstream media reporting such as CNN, Fox, Reuters, New York Times, Washington Post, The Guardian etc.
2023-03-21T07:06:13
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T20:08:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dX3SyEeshWgYsVpLGGzC
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win one playoff series in 2023?
The Toronto Maple Leafs, notorious playoff disappointments, have not won an NHL playoff series since 2004. Will they win a series this year?
2023-03-21T04:55:31
2023-04-30T19:29:00
2023-05-01T06:32:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uqcISQ1TgTYogR9OOY65
Will Destiny have a 20k viewer Rumble stream by the end of April
https://rumble.com/c/Destiny
2023-03-21T04:41:08
2023-04-30T18:51:37
2023-04-30T18:51:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-91sTrf5g1DyaMv9eoeqi
Will interest in DeepMind overtake OpenAI at any point before 2025?
Resolves YES if the "Interest Over Time" metric on Google Trends for DeepMind is higher than OpenAI at any point in time from the date of market creation to Dec 31, 2024; resolves NO otherwise. The trend lines worldwide for these two companies at time of market creation (blue = OpenAI, red = DeepMind): [image]
2023-03-21T03:06:34
2024-12-30T15:59:00
2025-01-06T08:08:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Y3lXD7s2CWFoRwHcnlm4
Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2024 be higher than in 2022?
As per https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88, or another data source if this one becomes unreliable. This is asking about the number of official pledges made during that year, not made up until that year. Note the years, this is comparing 2024 to 2022, not to 2023.
2023-03-21T02:04:37
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-02T02:34:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-s9X4oewHhaoR6UzdyaMU
Will Trump be arrested or indicted before this weekend?
Can be from any level of government in the US. Must be on or before Friday, March 24 11:59 PM EDT. If announcement comes after this time but claims action happened within the time window this market resolves "Yes", May wait a few days to make sure this isn't the case.
2023-03-20T22:13:50
2023-03-25T03:30:16
2023-03-25T03:30:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WfJaOULZINM7HdSR7bxx
Will Trump face a jury?
YES/NO and literally
2023-03-20T20:30:16
2024-05-03T15:58:10
2024-05-03T15:58:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rKbhw3g9iLf4ufYYpSzp
Will Trump do time?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-20T20:29:44
2025-01-31T21:59:00
2025-01-31T23:20:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-h0nJPwFd0DwxHJ9Zb9rI
Will Trump plead guilty (to any charge before close)?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-20T20:28:55
2025-01-31T21:59:00
2025-02-01T23:12:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6fp19jpeX0lBsUlvzueO
Will Trump be handcuffed?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-20T20:28:16
2025-01-31T21:59:00
2025-02-02T11:44:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HcrJdetqxKS21jcwbZKm
Will the US guarantee all deposits?
*most
2023-03-20T19:40:20
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T15:06:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YTxJ4mFUhyu5sXheFDwk
Will John Bolton win at least one state in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if John Bolton wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-03-20T19:31:38
2024-06-14T00:04:02
2024-06-14T00:04:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5L9JfPFjjy3RaqjXGQG6
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on October 1 (his 99th birthday)?
He's beaten some of the market predictions so far! Resolves according to whatever time zone Jimmy Carter is in. [markets]General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
2023-03-20T18:36:31
2023-10-01T03:00:00
2023-10-01T11:22:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PuaKfkf8TWhy18blwGc3
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on June 1?
He's beaten some of the market predictions so far! Resolves according to whatever time zone Jimmy Carter is in. [markets]General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
2023-03-20T18:34:24
2023-06-01T03:00:00
2023-06-01T06:57:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fsc74A1sRD7LQIPyKIjx
Will the PRC broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in 2023?
Here peace deal is intended to include an observed cease fire. If only a cease fire is announced I will wait seven days before closing the market and resolving yes. If the cease fire breaks down within that period the question will not resolve, but will remain open. (I have not created many markets. This seems reasonable and interesting to me but if experienced creators think this is a bad way to run the market I will consider changing it) All three parties (PRC, Ukraine, Russia) must publicly announce, assent to, and agree that China is involved in, the peace deal. They do not need to be physically present in the same room with flags when they do so. Resolution will be based on credible news reports, or government statements.
2023-03-20T16:27:29
2023-12-31T07:59:00
2024-01-04T11:59:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Wxf3z3adLBedLo8baqMc
Will Destiny talk to Brittany Simon to potentially mend the bridge?
He has blocked her on all socials and refuses to talk to her despite Erudite's advice. He might change his mind after a few days.
2023-03-20T15:57:02
2023-04-30T20:13:12
2023-04-30T20:13:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2lGYtjnEJTsfeFJLyN5d
Will Asa Hutchinson visit Kyiv during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-20T15:05:23
2023-12-31T20:44:12
2023-12-31T20:44:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7KJZYbJ0KjUlIjCxLQkx
Will Ron Desantis visit Kyiv during 2023?
Zelenskyy has extended an invite...
2023-03-20T15:02:57
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:05:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XPYfSw8xWvc7QpFnSrRV
Will we find out that a major political speech was written by an AI tool such as ChatGPT before the end of 2023?
Will it leak or be announced that a campaign speech, advertisement, or political speech in an EU country or the United States was written by ChatGPT or other LLMs, in 2023?
2023-03-20T14:46:17
2023-04-24T18:45:11
2023-04-24T18:45:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dqYYJqT4LVXMoOoxefZu
Will Destiny burn the Brittany Simon bridge before April?
[image]
2023-03-20T14:17:07
2023-03-21T18:28:21
2023-03-21T18:28:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lBKigHTMSOs7dmVYpfdK
Will anyone other than Trump or DeSantis win a state in the 2024 Republican primaries?
Resolves to YES if any candidate other than former president Donald Trump or Florida governor Ron DeSantis wins any state in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries. "Winning" is based on delegate count, then number of votes (so only one candidate can win each state). Caucuses count as well as primaries (so e.g. winning Iowa would count), but the victory must be in a state, not a territory (even though places like Washington D.C. hold primaries as well).
2023-03-20T10:19:28
2024-03-06T09:49:04
2024-03-06T09:49:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3IsX9DA1Wcex2aEHPMZV
Will higher education be a frequent talking point in the US presidential debates?
I will assess "frequent" by using a heuristic: if the topic is substantially discussed (not just in passing) at least once during more than three (>3) debates, all debates combined (GOP and/or DNC primaries and/or general election debates).
2023-03-20T10:10:01
2024-11-04T13:12:29
2024-11-04T13:12:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mwrdWQRYhaaia4jHrxQ8
Will Trump be arrested “on Tuesday”?
Can be from State, Local, Municipal or Federal govt (US). Indictment counts. Only valid for Mar 21 2023 EDT. If the public announcement mentions the specific time the action was taken this market will resolve to that, otherwise will resolve to time of public announcement. Market might stay open a bit to verify this.
2023-03-20T09:35:01
2023-03-21T21:06:27
2023-03-21T21:06:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-s9h1MIRs4T4cAjgrr48f
Will a version of GPT-4 finetuned for code be released this year?
e.g. a model that is to GPT-4 as code-davinci-002 is to GPT-3.5. It does not need to be released by OpenAI - if for some reason Microsoft produces it, or the weights are leaked and a third party produces it that will also count, as long as it is clear that the base model is GPT-4. I also do not require that the base model be the exact GPT-4 version that is deployed to their API or that was used to produce the benchmarks in the technical report.
2023-03-20T09:04:33
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-03T12:25:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DiedPNpSJavhOO6CHQF6
Will Amazon lay off 20k or more people from its global workforce in Q1 and Q2, 2023?
Global workforce, not just the corporate staff
2023-03-20T08:33:29
2023-06-29T22:18:24
2023-06-29T22:18:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LSwpZqHZ3YGJBtcZHbt3
Will Forsen beat XQC’s record by the end of March
Resolves yes if he beats the enderdragon (HAS TO BEAT RECORD) Resolves no if he doesn't by April 1st. Resolves N/A if he quits playing
2023-03-20T07:45:12
2023-03-22T15:58:47
2023-03-22T15:58:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-s8Zd3wGDPcj7BDOTOfYO
If Trump does not get arrested in March, will there be a protest for that?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-20T06:27:38
2023-04-01T04:51:50
2023-04-01T04:51:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BbOxs9a6s73ATiXSJXP4
Will the Republican nominee for President in the 2024 election be more than 50 years old?
If the Republican nominee as selected at the 2024 Republican National Convention is someone who will be younger than 50 on election day, then this market will resolve to NO. If they are someone who will be 50 or older on election day, then this market will resolve to YES. Will resolve once a nominee is selected at the RNC.
2023-03-20T03:18:39
2024-07-16T08:48:15
2024-07-16T08:48:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bRgCYXcDbR0EWTlbQk0v
Will Sundar Pichai stop being CEO by the end of September?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-19T23:15:57
2023-09-30T16:59:00
2023-10-01T12:37:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-P1oil9dJtZRiCR3pnVC3
If Donald Trump is indicted in Fulton County, will his supporters storm any Georgia government facility within a week?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-19T22:41:23
2023-08-24T15:56:43
2023-08-24T15:56:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wDtgaaxMq8BBIBVkhPtj
Will Destiny have 100k followers on Kick in 2023?
Resolves Yes if Kick.com/Destiny Reaches 100k followers before year end
2023-03-19T20:34:48
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:20:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RNizvvstsFn1Dzd9N4zI
Will Destiny stream longer than 8 hours on March 20th 2023?
Resolves YES if Destiny is live on their YouTube Channel for longer than 8 hours on March 20th. Multiple streams do count if added together and is cumulatively longer than 8 hours. A stream's hours that goes past midnight (Eastern Time) would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream. https://www.destiny.gg/bigscreen https://www.youtube.com/user/Destiny https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
2023-03-19T17:27:03
2023-03-21T00:55:53
2023-03-21T00:55:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v0KYtRRyyazJkxTlgTiN
Will Google Generative AI for GMail be available by July 1, 2023?
Resolves to YES if I am able to get access to it for at most $500 without any special treatment, NO if I can't. If there's a waitlist I'll sign up for it the second I can. (If anyone at Google wants to give me early access, that would be great, but it won't win you this market.)
2023-03-19T16:04:21
2023-06-26T04:47:11
2023-06-26T04:47:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6USmvZ41FDw82REBJvLD
Will MBS meet with Bibi Netanyahu during 2023?
Meeting must be in-person.
2023-03-19T15:52:24
2023-12-31T13:55:09
2023-12-31T13:55:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ctY8RfjkkRz70wMnaBdj
Will the U.S. and China go to war before 2025?
There are suggestions that the U.S. and China may enter into conflict due to the latter's rising influence in the world. And some say that the oncoming elections in Taiwan and the U.S. in 2024 would provide good opportunity for China if it chose to be the initiator. China-U.S. War By 2025 Predicted By Four-Star General | Time Resolves YES if, by the end of 2024, either nation formally declares war, if either nation invades and occupies the other's undisputed sovereign territory with military forces, or if de-facto war breaks out in the form of multiple skirmishes. Otherwise, resolves NO.
2023-03-19T13:46:30
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-03T13:46:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cRRPuhZtliblN3RiGsD5
Will Trump be denied bail by any judge by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-19T13:33:50
2023-12-31T20:37:29
2023-12-31T20:37:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-u41B0mbn50Not0U7yYkl
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Mariupol before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-19T13:32:12
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:39:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sUVbiDenRFllAs8qVWaE
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Crimea before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-19T13:31:41
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:39:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hn4mXal4BTDQJnJuhwRI
Will Zelenskyy visit Moscow before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-19T13:30:58
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T00:46:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nrXRF3hzDFAwq5b4eaI3
Will Trump be gagged by a judge during 2023?
By "gagged" I mean will he be ordered to cease all public communications about the case or anybody involved for any amount of time.
2023-03-19T13:28:12
2023-10-06T13:19:24
2023-10-06T13:19:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XNVdtrFIbQvcNhGXueGl
Will Donald Trump be the 2024 Republican nominee for president?
Resolves based on the winner of the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Details: The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Republican Party. If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution. If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, this market will resolve on a preliminary basis. However, if the actual nominee ends up being a different candidate than the presumptive nominee, then the resolution of the market will be changed to reflect the final nominee.
2023-03-19T13:06:28
2024-03-13T06:38:17
2024-03-13T06:38:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gcYnnl4R2A0yBp0ARFM7
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican nominee for president?
Resolves based on the winner of the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Details: Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, this market will resolve on a preliminary basis. However, if the actual nominee ends up being a different candidate than the presumptive nominee, then the resolution of the market will be changed to reflect the final nominee.
2023-03-19T13:05:08
2024-03-13T07:36:12
2024-03-13T07:36:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-T0yCFkNAXjejjgGwU8Rh
Will Nikki Haley be the 2024 Republican nominee for president?
Resolves based on the winner of the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Details: Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, this market will resolve on a preliminary basis. However, if the actual nominee ends up being a different candidate than the presumptive nominee, then the resolution of the market will be changed to reflect the final nominee.
2023-03-19T13:02:14
2024-03-13T07:34:38
2024-03-13T07:34:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-D216ZmU62ux07TtpzeKx
Will China send lethal weapons specific for warfare/combat to Russia in their Ukraine invasion by the end of 2023?
Dual use equipment (commercial items that could also be used on the battlefield) DOES NOT COUNT. It has to be weapons specifically used for the battlefield. https://www.politico.eu/article/chinese-companies-are-shipping-rifles-body-armor-to-russia/amp/ Per the article, China sent hunting rifles to Russia in 2022, which is sort of a grey zone since hunting rifles are considered dual use equipment. Will China ramp up and start sending actual weapons designed for combat? (https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-china-provide-russia-with-leth-bf805456d5ac)
2023-03-19T10:38:10
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-08T05:08:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0uDSm350OtN7QNxdyFnW
Will GPT-4's parameter count be announced by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if OpenAI officially communicates the total parameter count of GPT-4 by the end of 2023 (e.g. by 11:59PM PST on December 31, 2023). For the purpose of avoiding edge cases in judging, leaks will not count as announcements. For clarification (and parity with https://manifold.markets/nmehndir/will-gpt4s-parameter-count-be-publi), two significant figures are necessary.
2023-03-19T09:49:35
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T06:32:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zPsfIBSirLhpXKtibKzE
Will China send weapons to Russia for their Ukraine invasion efforts in 2023?
Dual use equipment (commercial items that could also be used on the battlefield) counts. See article for examples of dual use weapons. https://www.politico.eu/article/chinese-companies-are-shipping-rifles-body-armor-to-russia/amp/ (https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-china-send-lethal-weapons-spec)
2023-03-19T08:55:36
2023-08-17T01:43:37
2023-08-17T01:43:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VYIa7BnQaeO8abUzTulS
Will BTC be worth at least $1m USD before June 17? (As predicted by Balaji on USD hyperinflation within 90 days)
Resolves YES if at any point before June 17 (UTC time), BTC is worth at least $1m USD according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. Otherwise NO. If https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ is not available or up-to-date, another data source may be used. Context: [tweet][tweet](Note: this bet is a terrible bet in financial terms even if he thinks BTC will go up to $1m, because instead of taking this bet he could just buy $1m of BTC today and it would be worth 40x as much if he was right. Perhaps it's a good bet as a Twitter stunt though.)
2023-03-19T07:49:48
2023-06-17T20:59:00
2023-06-22T14:59:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HTG0rgxrep4xcFQRvH0W
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of April?
(https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163392887/biden-jimmy-carter-eulogy)
2023-03-19T07:40:52
2023-04-30T20:06:21
2023-04-30T20:06:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-K3b1P1bA3tEtxfkWhqwH
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by April 15?
(https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163392887/biden-jimmy-carter-eulogy)
2023-03-19T07:28:29
2023-04-15T23:59:00
2023-04-16T00:09:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lXiXiEkmigZBFK0mXr9v
Trump is asking his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will there be large scale protests in 3 or more states?
We will go by mainstream media sources such as CNN, Fox, MSNBC, NPR, Washington Post etc on how many protests there are around the country.
2023-03-19T04:53:42
2023-04-30T20:16:44
2023-04-30T20:16:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NMCZIdfbzsKyB6Wf2lgR
Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2025?
Resolves YES if before 2025, an AI solves at least as many points worth of problems as the best human competitor on any single contest of the following competitive programming contests: IOI, ICPC World Finals, or CodeForces division 1. Otherwise NO. (In particular, this ignores scoring points based on quickly a problem is solved, so that the AI can't win just by submitting solutions inhumanly fast.) This is similar to the https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ but for contest programming instead of math, and with a requirement to rank first, not just get a gold medal (typically top 5-10%). Detailed rules: See detailed rules on this market. Related questions (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-an-ai-outcompete-the-best-huma)Background: In Feb 2022, DeepMind published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming: https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode. When will an AI system perform as well as the top humans?
2023-03-18T21:20:09
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T06:25:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DCNidh7lhvBju6bWtynA
Will Elon Musk name a new CEO of Twitter before June 2023?
Resolves YES if Elon Musk names a new CEO of Twitter by this date; otherwise NO. This is defined as Musk officially announcing who the new CEO will be. It is not necessary for them to become CEO by then.
2023-03-18T21:11:18
2023-05-12T09:03:50
2023-05-12T09:03:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BWP2ZQerYHN0X0H1x9ch
Will there be at least one big riot in the United States before April 15th, 2023?
Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in the United States, particularly among Trump's supporters who view this as a politically motivated attack on the former president. The United States has experienced incidents of civil unrest and rioting in the past, such as the 1992 Los Angeles riots and the mass civil unrest in response to the killing of George Floyd in 2020. Given the current political climate and potential for social unrest, it is uncertain whether there will be at least one big riot in the United States before April 15th, 2023. For the purposes of this question, a "big riot" is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions are met: At least 5 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents. At least 250 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents. An "event of rioting" is defined as a continuous period of unrest involving a significant number of participants (at least 50 people), marked by property damage, violent confrontations with law enforcement, and/or physical altercations among participants, that: Occurs within a specific geographic area, defined as an area of no more than 50 square miles (129.5 square kilometers) where the majority of the unrest activities take place, and Lasts for at least 2 hours without a break of more than 30 minutes, and Is primarily driven by a common political, social, or economic issue or grievance. For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 5. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count. Arrests must be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Arrests made for unrelated crimes during the civil unrest period will not be counted towards the 250.
2023-03-18T20:58:29
2023-04-15T19:17:04
2023-04-15T19:17:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z9go64FCrcKD1x7ejBM0
Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will anyone be injured/killed in the protests?
Mainstream media reporting only. This would include NPR, New York Post, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, The Times, BBC, The Guardian etc.
2023-03-18T20:15:01
2023-04-30T21:35:09
2023-04-30T21:35:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z8G7lmMGWvHskkClF7X5
Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will there be property damage reported by the media?
Mainstream media only. They would include NPR, New York Post, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, The Times, BBC, The Guardian etc. We will go by mainstream consensus on whether the protests caused property damage. Just 1 outlet reporting would not suffice.
2023-03-18T19:08:27
2023-05-01T03:49:08
2023-05-01T03:49:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wEmHnxe6Zz3kXgKacen9
Will Donald Trump be the 2024 nominee (now that he's been arrested in 2023)?
This market's condition has been met, and it will resolve based on whether Trump is nominated for President by the GOP. Original criteria: Will Donald Trump Sr. be nominated for President in the 2024 election by the US Republican Party if he is arrested (using the legal definition of that term in the jurisdiction in which the event occurs) in 2023 (going by the time zone in which the event occurs)?
2023-03-18T17:17:30
2024-07-17T00:05:07
2024-07-17T00:05:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lhIkdvPok1HdBZOKmfKS
Will the NCAA men's basketball championship be won by the lowest seed ever this year?
Eight seed or lower. Counting ties with current record.
2023-03-18T16:56:03
2023-04-04T07:56:03
2023-04-04T07:56:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QSVByGmUzjAuQkdNrgkQ
Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison in April?
House arrest does NOT count. He has to physically be in a jail/prison. Apr 4, 12:30pm: Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison by April? → Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison in April?
2023-03-18T14:56:11
2023-04-30T21:33:51
2023-04-30T21:33:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yyMcQnc4IfV9T57TyT4q
Will UBS acquire Credit Suisse in 2023?
The acquisition could take many forms including but not limited to a merger, a takeover or an asset purchase. This market will resolve as YES if an official announcement is made by either UBS or Credit Suisse confirming the acquisition before December 31st, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve as NO. Update 2023-03-19: The acquisition must be completed for positive resolution.
2023-03-18T14:52:03
2023-11-14T22:41:14
2023-11-14T22:41:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nw8yxskRMyhJB0MQzKNw
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.
2023-03-18T14:26:22
2024-11-15T14:55:00
2024-11-15T14:55:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NQEllDN5txeR0xmDySjX
New Eminem album in 2023?
not a re-release of an old album
2023-03-18T12:06:30
2023-12-31T22:29:00
2023-12-31T23:07:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-c0gOfJ1NzcS7ga6q2rkg
Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-18T11:05:10
2024-05-31T18:41:13
2024-05-31T18:41:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-z1EF8bWftv6uUJatdJMF
Will Donald Trump’s prediction of his arrest “by Tuesday” (03/21/2023) occur?
Closes yes if Donald Trump is arrested by midnight 03/21/2023. Clarification for the Karens: Taken into custody by 11:59:59 PM on 03/21/2023.
2023-03-18T09:41:12
2023-03-21T20:59:00
2023-03-22T03:38:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PF2mExtQnMdN7AF1uLCT
Will Trump be arrested on Tuesday, March 21, 2023?
[image]Resolves YES if Donald Trump is in state or police custody (even willingly or briefly) on March 21, 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
2023-03-18T09:28:48
2023-03-21T23:59:00
2023-03-22T01:56:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FRkWo6Ifii3jbmzcEQGq
Will we have hyperinflation in 90 days? "BTC >< $1M". (Medlock vs. Balaji)
No: If BTC < $1M USD in 90 days, Yes. If BTC >= $1M USD in 90 days. As of 1AM MST June 17, 2023. Price as shown on https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD Mar 18, 9:21pm: Will we have hyperinflation in 90 days? "BTC >< $1M". (Medlock vs. Belaji) → Will we have hyperinflation in 90 days? "BTC >< $1M". (Medlock vs. Balaji)
2023-03-18T09:25:50
2023-06-16T16:59:00
2023-06-16T20:50:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5g5jtvXds2VqFe5s7pNo
Will non-US stocks outperform US stocks in 2023?
Resolves to YES if the VXUS ETF outperforms the VTI ETF on a total return basis (dividends reinvested) in 2023. VXUS tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index and VTI tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index. The total return calculations for the ETFs will be taken from Morningstar.com ("Total Return % (NAV)"). Note that performance is measured in US dollar terms (not local currency returns for international stocks). Standings as of March 18, 2023: VTI (US) up 2.04% YTD VXUS (non-US) up 1.06% YTD
2023-03-18T09:05:36
2023-12-31T05:55:01
2023-12-31T05:55:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uULtsw3bYfO06iBahdTQ
Will EUR fall below USD again in 2023 ?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD%3DX?p=EURUSD%3DX
2023-03-18T08:28:48
2024-01-01T14:59:00
2024-01-04T03:39:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Kqycq87eXDekdpkno0QC
Will Bitcoin drop below US$25,000 within this year?
Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below 25,000$ at any moment from the creation of this market to 2024 (Created March 18th) Will resolve immediately if it does happen. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
2023-03-18T06:56:01
2023-06-15T19:23:09
2023-06-15T19:23:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-e4FF1O7AXperGCNo2T0t
Trump is asking his supporters to protest his imminent arrest next week. Will there be riots in New York in March?
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/18/trump-protest-arrest-tuesday-00087738
2023-03-18T06:11:33
2023-04-01T04:19:32
2023-04-01T04:19:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4UlUcXaC4R8a2F5Koqyt
Will Destiny's video "Adin Ross And Sneako Team Up To Confront Destiny" get 500k Views before 1. April
500k views or more
2023-03-18T04:44:46
2023-03-31T14:59:00
2023-03-31T17:49:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mnQMHWoBnW9GwNAFq2OC
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?
Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in the United States, particularly among Trump's supporters who view this as a politically motivated attack on the former president. In the past, the United States has experienced incidents of civil unrest and large-scale rioting, such as the 1992 Los Angeles riots and the mass civil unrest in response to the killing of George Floyd in 2020. It is uncertain whether the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Trump could trigger a similar scale of civil unrest. Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? For the purposes of this question, "large-scale rioting" is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions are met: At least 25 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents. At least 5,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents. These counts will be cumulative from question open date to resolution date. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many. For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 25. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count. Arrests must be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Arrests made for unrelated crimes during the civil unrest period will not be counted towards the 5,000.
2023-03-17T22:36:12
2023-04-15T19:16:21
2023-04-15T19:16:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pSGmyueOdP7HebZWpegS
Will Ron DeSantis declare himself as a candidate for the 2024 election before 15th May 2023?
Resolves yes if Ron DeSantis declares his presidential run before 15th May 2023. The ongoing Florida legislative session ends on 5th May 2023.
2023-03-17T22:31:43
2023-05-14T16:59:00
2023-05-15T01:52:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8pND9DTfLlLEtN8dGNye
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15573/huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023/ Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in the United States, particularly among Trump's supporters who view this as a politically motivated attack on the former president. In the past, the United States has experienced incidents of civil unrest and large-scale rioting, such as the 1992 Los Angeles riots and the mass civil unrest in response to the killing of George Floyd in 2020. It is uncertain whether the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Trump could trigger a similar scale of civil unrest. ***Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?*** Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023, in response to the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Donald Trump? For the purposes of this question, "large-scale rioting" is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions are met: 1. At least 25 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents. 2. At least 5,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents. These counts will be cumulative from question open date to resolution date. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many. [fine-print] For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest and be explicitly linked to the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Donald Trump; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 25. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count. Arrests must be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest and be explicitly linked to the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Donald Trump. Arrests made for unrelated crimes during the civil unrest period will not be counted towards the 5,000. [/fine-print]
2023-03-17T22:29:30
2023-04-15T12:00:00
2023-04-27T19:32:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9cUeKCh0iSnJpg7khSOX
Will BTC be above $35,000 by end of December 2023?
Resolves YES if price of BTC on coinmarketcap.com is >=$35,000 on 31st December 2023 at 11:59 PM.
2023-03-17T22:11:36
2023-12-31T10:29:00
2023-12-31T21:44:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nDvvM2NqhiHswFYTmwS7
Will Narendra Modi be the PM of India in 2024?
Indian general elections are coming up in first half of 2024. Resolved yes if the BJP (Modi's party) gets a majority or if the BJP is able to form a coalition government with other parties to form the government.
2023-03-17T22:08:16
2024-06-04T11:29:00
2024-06-10T02:22:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sJJKXDoMtgUpbs8RiUox
Poland and Slovakia are sending MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. Will Germany change it's mind and follow suit by April?
https://time.com/6263986/poland-mig-29-fighter-jets-ukraine/ https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-chancellor-olaf-scholz-doubles-down-on-refusal-of-fighter-jets-for-ukraine/ Any warplane supply will do. The type of warplane doesn't matter.
2023-03-17T19:45:15
2023-05-01T01:17:02
2023-05-01T01:17:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uka3KvS89TlRyHgRQ1Tp
Will Trump be indicted by March 31? [Polymarket question, see details]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. Please note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. Note also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market. Resolution criteria from https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by. Edit just to be clear: This market will resolve the same as Polymarket. Mar 30, 8:32pm: Will Trump be indicted by March 31? → Will Trump be indicted by March 31? [Polymarket question, see details]
2023-03-17T19:00:42
2023-04-03T05:14:35
2023-04-03T05:14:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PH3gWRcReHez8XRJeAWH
Will Trump surrender to face charges by March 31?
Resolves YES if by March 31 11:59:59 ET, Trump surrenders to face any charges in any jurisdiction, as reported by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO. Context: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/trump-will-surrender-to-face-charges-if-indicted-defense-lawyer-says.html
2023-03-17T18:54:49
2023-03-31T16:59:00
2023-04-01T05:17:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DvucGevaokP96TiGc3C5
Will the $1M vs 1BTC bet between @JamesMedlock and Balaji Srinivasan over hyperinflation go ahead?
A bet is being formulated on Twitter between @JamesMedlock (Twitter: @jdcmedlock) and Balaji Srinivasan (Twitter: @balajis). The bet is over whether bitcoin will be worth $1M in 90 days, with Medlock to pay Balaji 1 Bitcoin if it is, and Balaji to pay Medlock $1M if it isn't. This is stated by Balaji to be a bet over hyperinflation - Balaji claims to imminently expect a large (>40×) devaluation of the US dollar, and for bitcoin to maintain its value. Will the bet go ahead (and be honoured)? This market will resolve YES if the winner is actually paid their winnings at the end of the term in a manner consistent with the terms of the bet. This market will resolve based on whether the spirit of the terms currently being formulated is followed, not the letter - for example if payout is diverted to charity at the recipient's request, or recipients crowdfund their stake, or some other asset is used to escrow the $1M instead of USDC, that will all be fine, as long as the outcome still largely resembles a bet over Bitcoin's value being greater than $1M or not, with stakes of of 1 BTC vs $1M. [tweet]Edit: The terms are different to what I initially thought, and so I have edited the description above, which originally stated that the bet was an agreement that Balaji would purcase 1 BTC from Medlock for $1M in 90 days. Instead, it looks like the winner will keep both the bitcoin and the $1M, and the bet is explicitly over whether the price of BTC is more than $1M at the end of the term. See the below tweet for this clarification. [tweet]
2023-03-17T18:13:40
2023-05-02T13:44:33
2023-05-02T13:44:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2UV81hlp117X0vY3mv4C
Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024?
Resolves YES if before 2024, an AI solves at least as many points worth of problems as the best human competitor on any single contest of the following competitive programming contests: IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces. Otherwise NO. (In particular, this ignores scoring points based on quickly a problem is solved, so that the AI can't win just by submitting solutions inhumanly fast. See detailed definitions below.) This is similar to the https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ but for contest programming instead of math, and with a requirement to rank first, not just get a gold medal (typically top 5-10%). Detailed rules: For IOI: This question uses the IOI score without any modifications: the score is based on problems solved, with partial scores for partial solutions. For ICPC: Only World Finals counts (since regional contest winners don't reflect the best human in the world). This question uses the number of problems solved as the score. ICPC is scored primarily on problems solved, with tiebreaker based on incorrect submission attempts for solved problems and the time of the last solved problem. This question ignores the tiebreakers. For CodeForces: any CodeForces Division 1 contest (the highest division) will count. CodeForces Division 2+ contests do not count (since they don't reflect the top humans). This question uses the sum of the initial/maximum point value of each solved problem as the score. CodeForces's scoring system includes points per problem solved that decrease the longer you take to solve them, so an AI could outscore humans by solving fewer problems but submitting them faster. Therefore, for this question we ignore the reduction in points over time. This question also ignores penalty points for each incorrect submission attempt. CodeFroces also has a round of trying to find bugs in other contestants' problems ("hacks"). It is also impractical to simulate a hack round unless running the AI as part of a live contest, so we will exclude points (both penalties and rewards) for hacks for this question. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor, but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time. The AI must be evaluated under conditions substantially equivalent to human contestants, e.g. the same time limits and submission judging rules. The AI cannot query the Internet. The AI must not have access to the problems before being evaluated on them, e.g. the problems cannot be included in the training set. It should also be reasonably verifiable, e.g. it should not use any data which was uploaded after the latest competition. The contest must be dated no earlier than 2022. E.g. if an AI demonstrates performance on the 2022 IOI that scores at least as well as the top human competitor, that would qualify as YES, but demonstrating this on the 2021 IOI would not qualify. References to the contest scoring rules: https://ioi2022.id/competition-rules/ https://icpc.global/worldfinals/rules https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/4088 Related questions [markets]Background: In Feb 2022, DeepMind published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming: https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode. When will an AI system perform as well as the top humans?
2023-03-17T17:28:50
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T11:07:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gHJrPTutufOhKUjFHJkG
Will the US dollar hyperinflate before June 15th 2023?
Hyper inflation will be assessed using the value of Bitcoin, which must peak above $1 million USD at any point before June 15th 2023. This market is to track likelihood of Balaji's bet winning out. You can read mor eabout it on his thread. [tweet].
2023-03-17T16:05:40
2023-06-14T16:59:00
2023-06-17T22:01:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3K2qQmiL6SSZ4sP68A0d
Will Destiny start racing MrMouton in Minecraft by April 1th?
https://www.youtube.com/clip/UgkxXbMnEznvlT2Ey37teu220uSw9fwtKlgN God gamer MrMouton issued a challenge, will Destiny run like the whipped dog he is? For the market to be resolves as YES Destiny needs to make a proper effort to speedrun Minecraft, not just booting up the game and fucking around for an hour. At least one exchange of best time needs to happen between Destiny and MrMouton.
2023-03-17T14:40:18
2023-04-01T06:33:04
2023-04-01T06:33:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7VWQIIKFGi1H6j0F3Hf1
Will Trump be indicted by July 31, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-17T14:14:02
2023-03-30T15:57:34
2023-03-30T15:57:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-M4i9gDCOTuOcFXi0Lgnx
Will Kim Jong Un still be the Supreme Leader of North Korea at the beginning of 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-17T12:45:17
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-02T12:33:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uSUcA5UD0INKN1BlqRdx
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
The detonation must include a nuclear component. The conventional explosives going off due to some accident or malfunction doesn't count.
2023-03-17T12:16:39
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-02T12:22:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-o9NkCaQUzNqQGM2ffXit
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
The detonation must include a nuclear component. The conventional explosives going off due to some accident or malfunction doesn't count.
2023-03-17T12:16:26
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-01T15:54:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g9Q4xIq3Dx16K73PB1rd
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy still be alive at the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-17T12:06:01
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-01T16:24:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Lbpm53594YyUOK9B3KMH
Will GPT-5 be released before July 2024?
Must actually be named "GPT-5". (Or a variant like "GPT 5".)
2023-03-17T12:04:42
2024-07-01T01:07:15
2024-07-01T01:07:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-W1x6Ph3TDX5zpOqPA3Ad
Will the first main US presidential debate for the 2024 election include any mention of AI?
General election only, not primaries. Jokes and offhand comments do count, literally any mention at all. Implications also count as long as it's very clear that they're talking about AI. For example, "new technologies" is too vague, but "new technologies that some people think will render all humans obsolete within 10 years" is clearly about AI.
2023-03-17T12:02:48
2024-06-28T14:02:13
2024-06-28T14:02:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HQlM1UgGJGiUYkcYRvhA
Will Balaji actually take anyone up on his 1BTC for $1M 90-day bet?
Not 100% sure about what these terms cash out to, but will Balaji actually enter this bet with anyone? https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520 This resolves entirely on whether he publicly credibly seems to have agreed to this bet. It doesn't matter whether he later reneges on it, or disputes the original terms after the fact, or resolves it honestly. It just needs to be clear that he and at least one counterparty have made an agreement substantially similar to the terms of this bet.
2023-03-17T11:48:42
2023-05-02T10:45:26
2023-05-02T10:45:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-f4O5sxTB4P05jBzOvJBS
Will Balaji win his hyperinflation bet that $1M < 1BTC in 90 days?
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520
2023-03-17T11:42:42
2023-06-17T11:30:00
2023-06-17T16:42:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bbjkvCcFIxmmPx7QSK3m
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?
From https://metaculus.com/questions/15412/ukraine-control-of-melitopol-at-end-of-2023/ (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/15412/)
2023-03-17T11:14:34
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-01-01T14:12:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7JCyHU1wsMo7pxvWLWGT
Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?
Criteria: code must be written completely by AI with no human interventions must be generated according to a free-form human-provided specification which permits arbitrary problem domain (i.e. not confined to a pre-selected domain) code must confirm to the specification and meet quality standards of an expert human senior developer proficient in a given language and problem domain at least 3000 non-trivial lines of code programming languages like Java, Kotlin, C++, C# etc. Exclude "dynamic", "scripting" languages like Python, JavaScript, TypeScript, etc. Why do we exclude language like JS? There's a huge amount of publicly accessible JS examples so it is harder to assess originality.
2023-03-17T10:57:50
2025-01-06T10:03:57
2025-01-06T10:03:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jLQr6By7UbiKM6MW8hDy
Will AI spread through malware before 2025?
Resolves to "Yes" if there is a chain of computers X_1, X_2, X_3 running advanced AI software such that AI software on computer X_(i+1) is deployed by actions of AI software on computer X_i against the will of the entity which owns X_(i+1), i.e. X_(i+1) was compromised by AI-controlled malware. Precise criteria: AI in question must be capable of writing code and executing command and actively use these capabilities to spread AI is in charge of use of malware tools, i.e. it doesn't propagate like a simple virus We also resolve to "Yes" if we don't observe such a chain directly but there's overwhelming evidence that it exists.
2023-03-17T10:45:38
2024-12-25T15:59:00
2025-01-06T10:08:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eTfXPfhgp6dn6s3tTUYG
Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?
Significant enough to make national news and be a talking point. The January 6th riot in 2020 would have counted, as would the "not my president" protests in 2016. A single news article on the protest doesn't count; it needs to be a part of The Discourse™. A big thing that even someone who isn't very involved in politics would probably hear about on social media.
2023-03-17T10:10:59
2025-02-01T00:00:00
2025-02-18T20:43:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EytX6dEs0TdU70HyD4CP
Will Manchester City eliminate Bayern Munich at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League?
Resolves YES if Manchester City qualifies for the semi-finals of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League. Notice that the quarter-finals are played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied, then 30 minutes of extra time is played, and if the score is still tied at the end of extra time, the winner are decided by a penalty shoot-out.
2023-03-17T09:02:47
2023-04-19T14:59:00
2023-04-19T17:24:27
yes
MANIFOLD