id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-2JggjgbqBK53hEkUeMvS | Inflation in Germany down to 2% in 2023? | The consumer price index (Verbraucherpreise) in Germany in February 2023 was +8.7% compared to February 2022. The other (non consumer price) indices are falling in the last months as reported by Destatis:
[image]2% is the target value of the european central bank (ECB) for the Euro zone. Some economists, like Heiner F... | 2023-03-21T09:56:24 | 2024-01-16T09:01:04 | 2024-01-16T09:01:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gKz3w5O0ohYWtvyH0NBu | Will Bryan Caplan concede his AI bet with Matthew Barnett by June 1, 2023? | This market resolves to "YES" if and when Bryan Caplan publicly concedes his AI bet with Matthew Barnett.
The central case would be Caplan declaring that the central bet criterion has been met, and that an AI has gotten an A on five out of six of his most recent midterm exams, as specified in Caplan's post and this r... | 2023-03-21T09:24:33 | 2023-06-01T20:59:00 | 2023-06-01T21:25:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-D4kvkTcLBtejWKV587RL | Will the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists move the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight in 2024 | As of this writing, the current (2023) Doomsday Clock from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is set to 90 seconds to midnight: https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/ . The closer the Doomsday Clock is to midnight, the closer the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists thinks that humanity is to existential ... | 2023-03-21T09:08:45 | 2024-01-26T12:27:00 | 2024-01-26T12:27:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZCxjacYJhntp3b9VatpW | Will Trump be arrested or indicted by Tuesday, March 28 2023? | Was Trump referring to the following Tuesday?
Can be from any level of government in the US.
Must be on or before Tuesday, March 28 11:59 PM EDT.
If announcement comes after this time but claims action happened within the time window this market resolves "Yes", May wait a few days to make sure this isn't the case. | 2023-03-21T07:47:09 | 2023-03-29T04:51:57 | 2023-03-29T04:51:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UfupcN3ZUQyyiGeJFKsF | Will China be successful in brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine? | On 20–22 March 2023, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, visited Russia to discuss a peace proposal and cease fire for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-meets-dear-friend-xi-kremlin-ukraine-war-grinds-2023-03-20/
A peace proposal would be considered a... | 2023-03-21T07:06:13 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T20:08:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dX3SyEeshWgYsVpLGGzC | Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win one playoff series in 2023? | The Toronto Maple Leafs, notorious playoff disappointments, have not won an NHL playoff series since 2004. Will they win a series this year? | 2023-03-21T04:55:31 | 2023-04-30T19:29:00 | 2023-05-01T06:32:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uqcISQ1TgTYogR9OOY65 | Will Destiny have a 20k viewer Rumble stream by the end of April | https://rumble.com/c/Destiny
| 2023-03-21T04:41:08 | 2023-04-30T18:51:37 | 2023-04-30T18:51:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-91sTrf5g1DyaMv9eoeqi | Will interest in DeepMind overtake OpenAI at any point before 2025? | Resolves YES if the "Interest Over Time" metric on Google Trends for DeepMind is higher than OpenAI at any point in time from the date of market creation to Dec 31, 2024; resolves NO otherwise.
The trend lines worldwide for these two companies at time of market creation (blue = OpenAI, red = DeepMind):
[image] | 2023-03-21T03:06:34 | 2024-12-30T15:59:00 | 2025-01-06T08:08:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y3lXD7s2CWFoRwHcnlm4 | Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2024 be higher than in 2022? | As per https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88, or another data source if this one becomes unreliable.
This is asking about the number of official pledges made during that year, not made up until that year.
Note the years, this is comparing 2024 to 2022, not to 202... | 2023-03-21T02:04:37 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T02:34:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s9X4oewHhaoR6UzdyaMU | Will Trump be arrested or indicted before this weekend? | Can be from any level of government in the US.
Must be on or before Friday, March 24 11:59 PM EDT.
If announcement comes after this time but claims action happened within the time window this market resolves "Yes", May wait a few days to make sure this isn't the case. | 2023-03-20T22:13:50 | 2023-03-25T03:30:16 | 2023-03-25T03:30:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WfJaOULZINM7HdSR7bxx | Will Trump face a jury? | YES/NO and literally | 2023-03-20T20:30:16 | 2024-05-03T15:58:10 | 2024-05-03T15:58:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rKbhw3g9iLf4ufYYpSzp | Will Trump do time? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-20T20:29:44 | 2025-01-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:20:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h0nJPwFd0DwxHJ9Zb9rI | Will Trump plead guilty (to any charge before close)? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-20T20:28:55 | 2025-01-31T21:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:12:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6fp19jpeX0lBsUlvzueO | Will Trump be handcuffed? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-20T20:28:16 | 2025-01-31T21:59:00 | 2025-02-02T11:44:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HcrJdetqxKS21jcwbZKm | Will the US guarantee all deposits? | *most | 2023-03-20T19:40:20 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:06:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YTxJ4mFUhyu5sXheFDwk | Will John Bolton win at least one state in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if John Bolton wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's of... | 2023-03-20T19:31:38 | 2024-06-14T00:04:02 | 2024-06-14T00:04:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5L9JfPFjjy3RaqjXGQG6 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on October 1 (his 99th birthday)? | He's beaten some of the market predictions so far! Resolves according to whatever time zone Jimmy Carter is in.
[markets]General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit... | 2023-03-20T18:36:31 | 2023-10-01T03:00:00 | 2023-10-01T11:22:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PuaKfkf8TWhy18blwGc3 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on June 1? | He's beaten some of the market predictions so far! Resolves according to whatever time zone Jimmy Carter is in.
[markets]General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit... | 2023-03-20T18:34:24 | 2023-06-01T03:00:00 | 2023-06-01T06:57:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fsc74A1sRD7LQIPyKIjx | Will the PRC broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in 2023? | Here peace deal is intended to include an observed cease fire. If only a cease fire is announced I will wait seven days before closing the market and resolving yes. If the cease fire breaks down within that period the question will not resolve, but will remain open.
(I have not created many markets. This seems reasona... | 2023-03-20T16:27:29 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2024-01-04T11:59:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wxf3z3adLBedLo8baqMc | Will Destiny talk to Brittany Simon to potentially mend the bridge? | He has blocked her on all socials and refuses to talk to her despite Erudite's advice. He might change his mind after a few days. | 2023-03-20T15:57:02 | 2023-04-30T20:13:12 | 2023-04-30T20:13:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2lGYtjnEJTsfeFJLyN5d | Will Asa Hutchinson visit Kyiv during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-20T15:05:23 | 2023-12-31T20:44:12 | 2023-12-31T20:44:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7KJZYbJ0KjUlIjCxLQkx | Will Ron Desantis visit Kyiv during 2023? | Zelenskyy has extended an invite... | 2023-03-20T15:02:57 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:05:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XPYfSw8xWvc7QpFnSrRV | Will we find out that a major political speech was written by an AI tool such as ChatGPT before the end of 2023? | Will it leak or be announced that a campaign speech, advertisement, or political speech in an EU country or the United States was written by ChatGPT or other LLMs, in 2023? | 2023-03-20T14:46:17 | 2023-04-24T18:45:11 | 2023-04-24T18:45:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dqYYJqT4LVXMoOoxefZu | Will Destiny burn the Brittany Simon bridge before April? | [image] | 2023-03-20T14:17:07 | 2023-03-21T18:28:21 | 2023-03-21T18:28:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lBKigHTMSOs7dmVYpfdK | Will anyone other than Trump or DeSantis win a state in the 2024 Republican primaries? | Resolves to YES if any candidate other than former president Donald Trump or Florida governor Ron DeSantis wins any state in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries. "Winning" is based on delegate count, then number of votes (so only one candidate can win each state). Caucuses count as well as primaries (so e.... | 2023-03-20T10:19:28 | 2024-03-06T09:49:04 | 2024-03-06T09:49:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3IsX9DA1Wcex2aEHPMZV | Will higher education be a frequent talking point in the US presidential debates? | I will assess "frequent" by using a heuristic: if the topic is substantially discussed (not just in passing) at least once during more than three (>3) debates, all debates combined (GOP and/or DNC primaries and/or general election debates). | 2023-03-20T10:10:01 | 2024-11-04T13:12:29 | 2024-11-04T13:12:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mwrdWQRYhaaia4jHrxQ8 | Will Trump be arrested “on Tuesday”? | Can be from State, Local, Municipal or Federal govt (US).
Indictment counts.
Only valid for Mar 21 2023 EDT.
If the public announcement mentions the specific time the action was taken this market will resolve to that, otherwise will resolve to time of public announcement.
Market might stay open a bit to verify th... | 2023-03-20T09:35:01 | 2023-03-21T21:06:27 | 2023-03-21T21:06:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s9h1MIRs4T4cAjgrr48f | Will a version of GPT-4 finetuned for code be released this year? | e.g. a model that is to GPT-4 as code-davinci-002 is to GPT-3.5. It does not need to be released by OpenAI - if for some reason Microsoft produces it, or the weights are leaked and a third party produces it that will also count, as long as it is clear that the base model is GPT-4. I also do not require that the base mo... | 2023-03-20T09:04:33 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-03T12:25:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DiedPNpSJavhOO6CHQF6 | Will Amazon lay off 20k or more people from its global workforce in Q1 and Q2, 2023? | Global workforce, not just the corporate staff | 2023-03-20T08:33:29 | 2023-06-29T22:18:24 | 2023-06-29T22:18:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LSwpZqHZ3YGJBtcZHbt3 | Will Forsen beat XQC’s record by the end of March | Resolves yes if he beats the enderdragon (HAS TO BEAT RECORD)
Resolves no if he doesn't by April 1st.
Resolves N/A if he quits playing | 2023-03-20T07:45:12 | 2023-03-22T15:58:47 | 2023-03-22T15:58:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s8Zd3wGDPcj7BDOTOfYO | If Trump does not get arrested in March, will there be a protest for that? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-20T06:27:38 | 2023-04-01T04:51:50 | 2023-04-01T04:51:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BbOxs9a6s73ATiXSJXP4 | Will the Republican nominee for President in the 2024 election be more than 50 years old? | If the Republican nominee as selected at the 2024 Republican National Convention is someone who will be younger than 50 on election day, then this market will resolve to NO. If they are someone who will be 50 or older on election day, then this market will resolve to YES.
Will resolve once a nominee is selected at the... | 2023-03-20T03:18:39 | 2024-07-16T08:48:15 | 2024-07-16T08:48:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bRgCYXcDbR0EWTlbQk0v | Will Sundar Pichai stop being CEO by the end of September? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-19T23:15:57 | 2023-09-30T16:59:00 | 2023-10-01T12:37:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P1oil9dJtZRiCR3pnVC3 | If Donald Trump is indicted in Fulton County, will his supporters storm any Georgia government facility within a week? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-19T22:41:23 | 2023-08-24T15:56:43 | 2023-08-24T15:56:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wDtgaaxMq8BBIBVkhPtj | Will Destiny have 100k followers on Kick in 2023? | Resolves Yes if Kick.com/Destiny Reaches 100k followers before year end | 2023-03-19T20:34:48 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:20:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RNizvvstsFn1Dzd9N4zI | Will Destiny stream longer than 8 hours on March 20th 2023? | Resolves YES if Destiny is live on their YouTube Channel for longer than 8 hours on March 20th.
Multiple streams do count if added together and is cumulatively longer than 8 hours.
A stream's hours that goes past midnight (Eastern Time) would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream.
https://www.destiny.gg/... | 2023-03-19T17:27:03 | 2023-03-21T00:55:53 | 2023-03-21T00:55:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v0KYtRRyyazJkxTlgTiN | Will Google Generative AI for GMail be available by July 1, 2023? | Resolves to YES if I am able to get access to it for at most $500 without any special treatment, NO if I can't. If there's a waitlist I'll sign up for it the second I can.
(If anyone at Google wants to give me early access, that would be great, but it won't win you this market.) | 2023-03-19T16:04:21 | 2023-06-26T04:47:11 | 2023-06-26T04:47:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6USmvZ41FDw82REBJvLD | Will MBS meet with Bibi Netanyahu during 2023? | Meeting must be in-person. | 2023-03-19T15:52:24 | 2023-12-31T13:55:09 | 2023-12-31T13:55:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ctY8RfjkkRz70wMnaBdj | Will the U.S. and China go to war before 2025? | There are suggestions that the U.S. and China may enter into conflict due to the latter's rising influence in the world. And some say that the oncoming elections in Taiwan and the U.S. in 2024 would provide good opportunity for China if it chose to be the initiator.
China-U.S. War By 2025 Predicted By Four-Star Genera... | 2023-03-19T13:46:30 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-03T13:46:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cRRPuhZtliblN3RiGsD5 | Will Trump be denied bail by any judge by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-19T13:33:50 | 2023-12-31T20:37:29 | 2023-12-31T20:37:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u41B0mbn50Not0U7yYkl | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Mariupol before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-19T13:32:12 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:39:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sUVbiDenRFllAs8qVWaE | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Crimea before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-19T13:31:41 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:39:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hn4mXal4BTDQJnJuhwRI | Will Zelenskyy visit Moscow before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-19T13:30:58 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T00:46:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nrXRF3hzDFAwq5b4eaI3 | Will Trump be gagged by a judge during 2023? | By "gagged" I mean will he be ordered to cease all public communications about the case or anybody involved for any amount of time. | 2023-03-19T13:28:12 | 2023-10-06T13:19:24 | 2023-10-06T13:19:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XNVdtrFIbQvcNhGXueGl | Will Donald Trump be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | Resolves based on the winner of the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Details:
The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Republican Party. If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution... | 2023-03-19T13:06:28 | 2024-03-13T06:38:17 | 2024-03-13T06:38:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gcYnnl4R2A0yBp0ARFM7 | Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | Resolves based on the winner of the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Details:
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, this market will resolve... | 2023-03-19T13:05:08 | 2024-03-13T07:36:12 | 2024-03-13T07:36:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-T0yCFkNAXjejjgGwU8Rh | Will Nikki Haley be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | Resolves based on the winner of the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Details:
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, this market will resolve... | 2023-03-19T13:02:14 | 2024-03-13T07:34:38 | 2024-03-13T07:34:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-D216ZmU62ux07TtpzeKx | Will China send lethal weapons specific for warfare/combat to Russia in their Ukraine invasion by the end of 2023? | Dual use equipment (commercial items that could also be used on the battlefield) DOES NOT COUNT. It has to be weapons specifically used for the battlefield.
https://www.politico.eu/article/chinese-companies-are-shipping-rifles-body-armor-to-russia/amp/
Per the article, China sent hunting rifles to Russia in 2022, wh... | 2023-03-19T10:38:10 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-08T05:08:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0uDSm350OtN7QNxdyFnW | Will GPT-4's parameter count be announced by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if OpenAI officially communicates the total parameter count of GPT-4 by the end of 2023 (e.g. by 11:59PM PST on December 31, 2023). For the purpose of avoiding edge cases in judging, leaks will not count as announcements.
For clarification (and parity with https://manifold.markets/nmehndir/will-gpt4s-para... | 2023-03-19T09:49:35 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:32:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zPsfIBSirLhpXKtibKzE | Will China send weapons to Russia for their Ukraine invasion efforts in 2023? | Dual use equipment (commercial items that could also be used on the battlefield) counts.
See article for examples of dual use weapons.
https://www.politico.eu/article/chinese-companies-are-shipping-rifles-body-armor-to-russia/amp/
(https://manifold.markets/embed/johnleoks/will-china-send-lethal-weapons-spec) | 2023-03-19T08:55:36 | 2023-08-17T01:43:37 | 2023-08-17T01:43:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VYIa7BnQaeO8abUzTulS | Will BTC be worth at least $1m USD before June 17? (As predicted by Balaji on USD hyperinflation within 90 days) | Resolves YES if at any point before June 17 (UTC time), BTC is worth at least $1m USD according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. Otherwise NO.
If https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ is not available or up-to-date, another data source may be used.
Context:
[tweet][tweet](Note: this bet is a... | 2023-03-19T07:49:48 | 2023-06-17T20:59:00 | 2023-06-22T14:59:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HTG0rgxrep4xcFQRvH0W | Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of April? | (https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163392887/biden-jimmy-carter-eulogy) | 2023-03-19T07:40:52 | 2023-04-30T20:06:21 | 2023-04-30T20:06:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-K3b1P1bA3tEtxfkWhqwH | Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by April 15? | (https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163392887/biden-jimmy-carter-eulogy) | 2023-03-19T07:28:29 | 2023-04-15T23:59:00 | 2023-04-16T00:09:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lXiXiEkmigZBFK0mXr9v | Trump is asking his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will there be large scale protests in 3 or more states? | We will go by mainstream media sources such as CNN, Fox, MSNBC, NPR, Washington Post etc on how many protests there are around the country. | 2023-03-19T04:53:42 | 2023-04-30T20:16:44 | 2023-04-30T20:16:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NMCZIdfbzsKyB6Wf2lgR | Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2025? | Resolves YES if before 2025, an AI solves at least as many points worth of problems as the best human competitor on any single contest of the following competitive programming contests: IOI, ICPC World Finals, or CodeForces division 1. Otherwise NO. (In particular, this ignores scoring points based on quickly a problem... | 2023-03-18T21:20:09 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:25:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DCNidh7lhvBju6bWtynA | Will Elon Musk name a new CEO of Twitter before June 2023? | Resolves YES if Elon Musk names a new CEO of Twitter by this date; otherwise NO.
This is defined as Musk officially announcing who the new CEO will be. It is not necessary for them to become CEO by then. | 2023-03-18T21:11:18 | 2023-05-12T09:03:50 | 2023-05-12T09:03:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BWP2ZQerYHN0X0H1x9ch | Will there be at least one big riot in the United States before April 15th, 2023? | Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in... | 2023-03-18T20:58:29 | 2023-04-15T19:17:04 | 2023-04-15T19:17:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z9go64FCrcKD1x7ejBM0 | Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will anyone be injured/killed in the protests? | Mainstream media reporting only. This would include NPR, New York Post, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, The Times, BBC, The Guardian etc. | 2023-03-18T20:15:01 | 2023-04-30T21:35:09 | 2023-04-30T21:35:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z8G7lmMGWvHskkClF7X5 | Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will there be property damage reported by the media? | Mainstream media only. They would include NPR, New York Post, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, The Times, BBC, The Guardian etc.
We will go by mainstream consensus on whether the protests caused property damage. Just 1 outlet reporting would not suffice. | 2023-03-18T19:08:27 | 2023-05-01T03:49:08 | 2023-05-01T03:49:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wEmHnxe6Zz3kXgKacen9 | Will Donald Trump be the 2024 nominee (now that he's been arrested in 2023)? | This market's condition has been met, and it will resolve based on whether Trump is nominated for President by the GOP.
Original criteria:
Will Donald Trump Sr. be nominated for President in the 2024 election by the US Republican Party if he is arrested (using the legal definition of that term in the jurisdiction in ... | 2023-03-18T17:17:30 | 2024-07-17T00:05:07 | 2024-07-17T00:05:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lhIkdvPok1HdBZOKmfKS | Will the NCAA men's basketball championship be won by the lowest seed ever this year? | Eight seed or lower. Counting ties with current record. | 2023-03-18T16:56:03 | 2023-04-04T07:56:03 | 2023-04-04T07:56:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QSVByGmUzjAuQkdNrgkQ | Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison in April? | House arrest does NOT count.
He has to physically be in a jail/prison.
Apr 4, 12:30pm: Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison by April? → Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison in April? | 2023-03-18T14:56:11 | 2023-04-30T21:33:51 | 2023-04-30T21:33:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yyMcQnc4IfV9T57TyT4q | Will UBS acquire Credit Suisse in 2023? | The acquisition could take many forms including but not limited to a merger, a takeover or an asset purchase. This market will resolve as YES if an official announcement is made by either UBS or Credit Suisse confirming the acquisition before December 31st, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve as NO.
Update 2023-... | 2023-03-18T14:52:03 | 2023-11-14T22:41:14 | 2023-11-14T22:41:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nw8yxskRMyhJB0MQzKNw | Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections? | Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a De... | 2023-03-18T14:26:22 | 2024-11-15T14:55:00 | 2024-11-15T14:55:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NQEllDN5txeR0xmDySjX | New Eminem album in 2023? | not a re-release of an old album | 2023-03-18T12:06:30 | 2023-12-31T22:29:00 | 2023-12-31T23:07:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c0gOfJ1NzcS7ga6q2rkg | Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-18T11:05:10 | 2024-05-31T18:41:13 | 2024-05-31T18:41:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-z1EF8bWftv6uUJatdJMF | Will Donald Trump’s prediction of his arrest “by Tuesday” (03/21/2023) occur? | Closes yes if Donald Trump is arrested by midnight 03/21/2023.
Clarification for the Karens: Taken into custody by 11:59:59 PM on 03/21/2023. | 2023-03-18T09:41:12 | 2023-03-21T20:59:00 | 2023-03-22T03:38:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PF2mExtQnMdN7AF1uLCT | Will Trump be arrested on Tuesday, March 21, 2023? | [image]Resolves YES if Donald Trump is in state or police custody (even willingly or briefly) on March 21, 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
| 2023-03-18T09:28:48 | 2023-03-21T23:59:00 | 2023-03-22T01:56:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FRkWo6Ifii3jbmzcEQGq | Will we have hyperinflation in 90 days? "BTC >< $1M". (Medlock vs. Balaji) | No: If BTC < $1M USD in 90 days,
Yes. If BTC >= $1M USD in 90 days.
As of 1AM MST June 17, 2023. Price as shown on https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Mar 18, 9:21pm: Will we have hyperinflation in 90 days? "BTC >< $1M". (Medlock vs. Belaji) → Will we have hyperinflation in 90 days? "BTC >< $1M". (Medlo... | 2023-03-18T09:25:50 | 2023-06-16T16:59:00 | 2023-06-16T20:50:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5g5jtvXds2VqFe5s7pNo | Will non-US stocks outperform US stocks in 2023? | Resolves to YES if the VXUS ETF outperforms the VTI ETF on a total return basis (dividends reinvested) in 2023.
VXUS tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index and VTI tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index.
The total return calculations for the ETFs will be taken from Morningstar.com ("Total Return % (NAV)"). Note th... | 2023-03-18T09:05:36 | 2023-12-31T05:55:01 | 2023-12-31T05:55:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uULtsw3bYfO06iBahdTQ | Will EUR fall below USD again in 2023 ? | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD%3DX?p=EURUSD%3DX | 2023-03-18T08:28:48 | 2024-01-01T14:59:00 | 2024-01-04T03:39:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kqycq87eXDekdpkno0QC | Will Bitcoin drop below US$25,000 within this year? | Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below 25,000$ at any moment from the creation of this market to 2024 (Created March 18th)
Will resolve immediately if it does happen.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2023-03-18T06:56:01 | 2023-06-15T19:23:09 | 2023-06-15T19:23:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e4FF1O7AXperGCNo2T0t | Trump is asking his supporters to protest his imminent arrest next week. Will there be riots in New York in March? | https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/18/trump-protest-arrest-tuesday-00087738 | 2023-03-18T06:11:33 | 2023-04-01T04:19:32 | 2023-04-01T04:19:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4UlUcXaC4R8a2F5Koqyt | Will Destiny's video "Adin Ross And Sneako Team Up To Confront Destiny" get 500k Views before 1. April | 500k views or more | 2023-03-18T04:44:46 | 2023-03-31T14:59:00 | 2023-03-31T17:49:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mnQMHWoBnW9GwNAFq2OC | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in... | 2023-03-17T22:36:12 | 2023-04-15T19:16:21 | 2023-04-15T19:16:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pSGmyueOdP7HebZWpegS | Will Ron DeSantis declare himself as a candidate for the 2024 election before 15th May 2023? | Resolves yes if Ron DeSantis declares his presidential run before 15th May 2023. The ongoing Florida legislative session ends on 5th May 2023. | 2023-03-17T22:31:43 | 2023-05-14T16:59:00 | 2023-05-15T01:52:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8pND9DTfLlLEtN8dGNye | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | From https://metaculus.com//questions/15573/huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023/ Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to w... | 2023-03-17T22:29:30 | 2023-04-15T12:00:00 | 2023-04-27T19:32:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9cUeKCh0iSnJpg7khSOX | Will BTC be above $35,000 by end of December 2023? | Resolves YES if price of BTC on coinmarketcap.com is >=$35,000 on 31st December 2023 at 11:59 PM. | 2023-03-17T22:11:36 | 2023-12-31T10:29:00 | 2023-12-31T21:44:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nDvvM2NqhiHswFYTmwS7 | Will Narendra Modi be the PM of India in 2024? | Indian general elections are coming up in first half of 2024. Resolved yes if the BJP (Modi's party) gets a majority or if the BJP is able to form a coalition government with other parties to form the government. | 2023-03-17T22:08:16 | 2024-06-04T11:29:00 | 2024-06-10T02:22:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sJJKXDoMtgUpbs8RiUox | Poland and Slovakia are sending MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. Will Germany change it's mind and follow suit by April? | https://time.com/6263986/poland-mig-29-fighter-jets-ukraine/
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-chancellor-olaf-scholz-doubles-down-on-refusal-of-fighter-jets-for-ukraine/
Any warplane supply will do. The type of warplane doesn't matter. | 2023-03-17T19:45:15 | 2023-05-01T01:17:02 | 2023-05-01T01:17:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uka3KvS89TlRyHgRQ1Tp | Will Trump be indicted by March 31? [Polymarket question, see details] | This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
Please note, for purposes of this m... | 2023-03-17T19:00:42 | 2023-04-03T05:14:35 | 2023-04-03T05:14:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PH3gWRcReHez8XRJeAWH | Will Trump surrender to face charges by March 31? | Resolves YES if by March 31 11:59:59 ET, Trump surrenders to face any charges in any jurisdiction, as reported by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO.
Context:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/trump-will-surrender-to-face-charges-if-indicted-defense-lawyer-says.html | 2023-03-17T18:54:49 | 2023-03-31T16:59:00 | 2023-04-01T05:17:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DvucGevaokP96TiGc3C5 | Will the $1M vs 1BTC bet between @JamesMedlock and Balaji Srinivasan over hyperinflation go ahead? | A bet is being formulated on Twitter between @JamesMedlock (Twitter: @jdcmedlock) and Balaji Srinivasan (Twitter: @balajis).
The bet is over whether bitcoin will be worth $1M in 90 days, with Medlock to pay Balaji 1 Bitcoin if it is, and Balaji to pay Medlock $1M if it isn't.
This is stated by Balaji to be a bet over... | 2023-03-17T18:13:40 | 2023-05-02T13:44:33 | 2023-05-02T13:44:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2UV81hlp117X0vY3mv4C | Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024? | Resolves YES if before 2024, an AI solves at least as many points worth of problems as the best human competitor on any single contest of the following competitive programming contests: IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces. Otherwise NO. (In particular, this ignores scoring points based on quickly a problem is solved, so that the ... | 2023-03-17T17:28:50 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:07:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gHJrPTutufOhKUjFHJkG | Will the US dollar hyperinflate before June 15th 2023? | Hyper inflation will be assessed using the value of Bitcoin, which must peak above $1 million USD at any point before June 15th 2023.
This market is to track likelihood of Balaji's bet winning out. You can read mor eabout it on his thread.
[tweet]. | 2023-03-17T16:05:40 | 2023-06-14T16:59:00 | 2023-06-17T22:01:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3K2qQmiL6SSZ4sP68A0d | Will Destiny start racing MrMouton in Minecraft by April 1th? | https://www.youtube.com/clip/UgkxXbMnEznvlT2Ey37teu220uSw9fwtKlgN
God gamer MrMouton issued a challenge, will Destiny run like the whipped dog he is?
For the market to be resolves as YES Destiny needs to make a proper effort to speedrun Minecraft, not just booting up the game and fucking around for an hour. At least... | 2023-03-17T14:40:18 | 2023-04-01T06:33:04 | 2023-04-01T06:33:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7VWQIIKFGi1H6j0F3Hf1 | Will Trump be indicted by July 31, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-17T14:14:02 | 2023-03-30T15:57:34 | 2023-03-30T15:57:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-M4i9gDCOTuOcFXi0Lgnx | Will Kim Jong Un still be the Supreme Leader of North Korea at the beginning of 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-17T12:45:17 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-02T12:33:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uSUcA5UD0INKN1BlqRdx | Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024? | The detonation must include a nuclear component. The conventional explosives going off due to some accident or malfunction doesn't count. | 2023-03-17T12:16:39 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-02T12:22:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o9NkCaQUzNqQGM2ffXit | Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023? | The detonation must include a nuclear component. The conventional explosives going off due to some accident or malfunction doesn't count. | 2023-03-17T12:16:26 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T15:54:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g9Q4xIq3Dx16K73PB1rd | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy still be alive at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-17T12:06:01 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-01T16:24:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Lbpm53594YyUOK9B3KMH | Will GPT-5 be released before July 2024? | Must actually be named "GPT-5". (Or a variant like "GPT 5".) | 2023-03-17T12:04:42 | 2024-07-01T01:07:15 | 2024-07-01T01:07:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W1x6Ph3TDX5zpOqPA3Ad | Will the first main US presidential debate for the 2024 election include any mention of AI? | General election only, not primaries. Jokes and offhand comments do count, literally any mention at all.
Implications also count as long as it's very clear that they're talking about AI. For example, "new technologies" is too vague, but "new technologies that some people think will render all humans obsolete within 10... | 2023-03-17T12:02:48 | 2024-06-28T14:02:13 | 2024-06-28T14:02:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HQlM1UgGJGiUYkcYRvhA | Will Balaji actually take anyone up on his 1BTC for $1M 90-day bet? | Not 100% sure about what these terms cash out to, but will Balaji actually enter this bet with anyone?
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520
This resolves entirely on whether he publicly credibly seems to have agreed to this bet. It doesn't matter whether he later reneges on it, or disputes the origi... | 2023-03-17T11:48:42 | 2023-05-02T10:45:26 | 2023-05-02T10:45:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f4O5sxTB4P05jBzOvJBS | Will Balaji win his hyperinflation bet that $1M < 1BTC in 90 days? | https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520 | 2023-03-17T11:42:42 | 2023-06-17T11:30:00 | 2023-06-17T16:42:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bbjkvCcFIxmmPx7QSK3m | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15412/ukraine-control-of-melitopol-at-end-of-2023/
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/15412/) | 2023-03-17T11:14:34 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-01T14:12:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7JCyHU1wsMo7pxvWLWGT | Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025? | Criteria:
code must be written completely by AI with no human interventions
must be generated according to a free-form human-provided specification which permits arbitrary problem domain (i.e. not confined to a pre-selected domain)
code must confirm to the specification and meet quality standards of an expert human ... | 2023-03-17T10:57:50 | 2025-01-06T10:03:57 | 2025-01-06T10:03:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jLQr6By7UbiKM6MW8hDy | Will AI spread through malware before 2025? | Resolves to "Yes" if there is a chain of computers X_1, X_2, X_3 running advanced AI software such that AI software on computer X_(i+1) is deployed by actions of AI software on computer X_i against the will of the entity which owns X_(i+1), i.e. X_(i+1) was compromised by AI-controlled malware.
Precise criteria:
AI i... | 2023-03-17T10:45:38 | 2024-12-25T15:59:00 | 2025-01-06T10:08:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eTfXPfhgp6dn6s3tTUYG | Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election? | Significant enough to make national news and be a talking point. The January 6th riot in 2020 would have counted, as would the "not my president" protests in 2016.
A single news article on the protest doesn't count; it needs to be a part of The Discourse™. A big thing that even someone who isn't very involved in polit... | 2023-03-17T10:10:59 | 2025-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-02-18T20:43:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EytX6dEs0TdU70HyD4CP | Will Manchester City eliminate Bayern Munich at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League? | Resolves YES if Manchester City qualifies for the semi-finals of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League.
Notice that the quarter-finals are played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied,... | 2023-03-17T09:02:47 | 2023-04-19T14:59:00 | 2023-04-19T17:24:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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