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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-DVXg16gepuYJkJRM8U63
|
Will Bytedance be banned in the US by 2025?
|
Discussions around banning Tiktok initially started during the Trump administration, but have recently received more bipar support. The Biden administration recently threatened to ban the app if they didn't force all Chinese owners to sell their stakes: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-threatens-to-ban-tiktok-if-chinese-founder-doesnt-sell-ownership-stake-36d7295c.
This market resolves to Yes if Bytedance is not merely forced to do away with Chinese owners, but also have to do a forced sell to an American company OR gets outright banned for use in the US
|
2023-03-17T05:35:12
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T20:23:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MNVe6YTUiiZwTRDvSnex
|
Will Scott Galloway be a guest on the Crystal Ballin' podcast by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-17T02:50:43
|
2023-12-31T20:37:13
|
2023-12-31T20:37:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-50OJeq9hbfv77dNHIPr1
|
Will Phil Tetlock be a guest on the Crystal Ballin' podcast by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-17T02:49:19
|
2023-12-31T20:09:22
|
2023-12-31T20:09:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T7ReSjOHXgl1iRvIK2bD
|
Will Ron DeSantis win at least three states in the Republican primaries?
|
Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least three states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
Similar markets: https://manifold.markets/group/can-candidate-win-states
|
2023-03-17T02:29:14
|
2024-06-02T23:56:22
|
2024-06-02T23:56:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fovo3TFMXjJLhkL1hw9G
|
Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025?
|
Resolves YES if an AI can gain a perfect score of 1600 on an SAT under standard conditions before Jan 1, 2025, resolves NO otherwise.
|
2023-03-16T21:59:01
|
2024-12-30T15:59:00
|
2025-01-06T08:08:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM
|
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
|
Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.
Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.
However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".
Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:
Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.
|
2023-03-16T21:56:53
|
2024-12-30T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T10:14:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ut5cKrPn9T19MjIdK6k2
|
Will China initiate an offensive military operation against Taiwan by the end of October?
|
There are only two months of the year when the tides make a landing on Taiwan possible, April and October. Xi Jinping just assumed absolute control of China for the first time since Mao died in 1976. We should all be asking ourselves "what would Mao do in Xi position today?"
|
2023-03-16T20:49:42
|
2023-10-31T20:59:00
|
2023-10-31T22:08:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TrXzvA82rR57Eof5gLar
|
Midjourney can create correct text in images by 8/1/2023
|
On 8/1/2023 I will use the best available paid model of midjourney (top paid or best plan available under $100/month) to run this prompt 5 times "a picture of a large overgrown concrete building with a large neon sign that says Pizza on top"
This will produce 20 images (5 mosaics of 4)
If the word Pizza is spelled correctly in at least 10/20 of the resulting images, the claim resolves YES. If not, it's NO. If the claim is tested successfully before this final test, it can immediately resolve YES, but I won't test it more than once per day.
Below is a sample of the images for that prompt today, 3/16/2023
Only the lower right image from the last of the 5 would count, so in total today's score would be 1/20.
[image][image][image][image][image]
|
2023-03-16T20:12:26
|
2023-08-01T23:59:00
|
2023-08-02T03:35:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JlFzmTtIAo5UAotnzK5I
|
Will one or more US politicians mention GPT-4 in a public speech or piece of writing in 2023?
|
Resolves if one or more US politicians mentions GPT-4 publicly in some kind of public forum (either speech or writing).
|
2023-03-16T19:30:46
|
2023-04-06T16:36:55
|
2023-04-06T16:36:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aPUGQyQJ7g9L57h14l8V
|
Will OpenAI's GPT-4 API support image inputs in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if:
The OpenAI API allows combined text + image inputs for some model labeled GPT-4, for any persons not affiliates of OpenAI or Microsoft.
Resolves PROB if:
This market does not resolve PROB.
Resolves NO if any of:
No verified access in 2023
OpenAI API is permanently taken down during 2023
GPT-4 is renamed to a different product for image input, even if the underlying model is the same, unless OpenAI explicitly states that the model is the same for both products within the 2023 year.
Resolves NA if:
This market does not resolve NA past 1 week after creation. Before 1 week passes, I can NA for any reason or no reason at all.
Definitions:
An "affiliate of X" is an employee, owner, investor, contractor, or vendor signing an NDA of X. Customers bound by a Terms of Service are not considered affiliates.
"Strong evidence" means a press release, journalist article, interview with an affiliate.
"Verify" means either personally using it, observing someone I believe to be a non-affiliate using it, or seeing a journalist report access.
"OpenAI API" means (API Reference - OpenAI API). Playground is usually released at the same time as general API, but Playground-only access would not count. It is not necessary that OpenAI provides any programming language bindings, as long as the endpoint is documented somewhere and it is possible to write code that uses the official API. If OpenAI renames their company(say to "Fortress AI") and it offers a text + image input substantially similar to the existing API, then it will be considered the same company and product. If OpenAI is acquired by Microsoft, but their existing API product remains online and is extended to support text + image inputs, then it will be considered the same API for this market.
"Image Inputs" means images sent via the API - likely the body of a POST request, or using the Chat API a turn like the "user", "assistant", and maybe "image" tags(though none of this is required) . I expect transmission of colored pixel data Encoding can be lossy(within reason) or lossless. The only requirement is: Text completion, where text is allowed to allude to an image; an image input, that can be alluded to by text instructions; and any specific text prompt containing instructions that need an image input, and an example output for which the model succeessful read the image and followed its instructions.
Description can be adjusted within 1 week after market creation. After that, terms can only be refined to have narrower meanings, or to have additional examples added.
|
2023-03-16T15:04:27
|
2023-11-24T04:47:05
|
2023-11-24T04:47:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wAGVwMimLAAJHqUdsrfm
|
Will SBF take the witness stand in his own defense?
|
Resolves yes if SBF is tried and testifies in court.
|
2023-03-16T14:46:47
|
2023-10-27T08:10:48
|
2023-10-27T08:10:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jI0j3qI4webAaEmkgIx9
|
Will ChatGPT support image inputs in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if:
The web UI at chat.openai.com allows image inputs within some conversations, for any persons not affiliates of OpenAI or Microsoft.
Resolves 50% if:
The web UI at chat.openai.com is announced to support inline images in some conversations, or there is strong evidence that the UI supports it for some non-affiliates. However, I am unable to verify a non-affiliate's access. Then, the market will be held open for up to 6 additional months to confirm it is eventually released to non-affiliates and resolved 50%.
Resolves NO if any of:
No verified access in 2023, and no announcement or strong evidence of private testing.
No verified access in 2023, and regardless of announcements or evidence, no verified access through June 2024.
ChatGPT is permanently taken down during 2023
Image inputs are accessible in Playground but not chat.openai.com
ChatGPT is renamed to a different product, even if the UI looks similar.
Definitions:
An "affiliate of X" is an employee, owner, investor, contractor, or vendor signing an NDA of X. Customers bound by a Terms of Service are not considered affiliates.
"Strong evidence" means a press release, journalist article, interview with an affiliate.
"Verify" means either personally using it, observing someone I believe to be a non-affiliate using it, or seeing a journalist report access.
"ChatGPT": OpenAI is allowed to change their domain name, but the product must be substantially similar: A list of conversations each of which supports tree-branching, rerolling of responses, automatic summarization of the conversation. ChatGPT-branded mobile or desktop or other apps do not count, only the web interface accessible at its primary domain. If "ChatGPT" is renamed with a minor change (e.g. "GPTChat"), it's considered the same product; if it's renamed to something very different (e.g. "Open Chat Experiences"), then it's considered a different product even if the UI looks similar.
"Image Inputs" means either uploading of images from disk, uploading of images taken from camera, or hotlinking of images. If novel forms of image input are discovered(uploading Turtle programs?), I retain the option to count those too.
|
2023-03-16T14:27:44
|
2023-11-24T13:35:07
|
2023-11-24T13:35:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jhzvMqqy7DTjC5jA9dvh
|
Will Law and Justice (PiS) win the parliamentary elections in Poland in 2023?
|
I will resolve this market based on the official results published by the State Election Commission (PKW).
[image]
|
2023-03-16T12:58:29
|
2023-10-17T03:45:36
|
2023-10-17T03:45:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mxJk2QzyjzT7Nd6XOZcm
|
Is GPT-4 able to generate images?
|
Note two requirements for this market to resolve YES:
a) it must be generating an image format so not svg or ascii art or anything like that
b) it must be able to come up with arbitrary images, not just reciting images it knows from its training data
|
2023-03-16T11:29:05
|
2023-11-24T04:41:05
|
2023-11-24T04:41:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sETLxZyrSTxralTVfHzy
|
Will any of the 2024 Nobel Laureates be Jewish?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-16T11:06:49
|
2024-11-10T08:51:10
|
2024-11-10T08:51:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0Wgwpg5fnwZjLPor1Dcr
|
Will Levels.fyi's next report claim that software engineer salaries continued to decline through 2023?
|
According to Levels.fyi's end of year pay report, salaries for all tech jobs have been decreasing from 2021 until the start of 2023. Will their next* report show this trend buckling or holding steady?
Resolves N/A if they do not publish such a report.
This market has been heavily subsidized.
*Edit: next "end of year pay report"
|
2023-03-16T11:06:16
|
2023-12-21T10:10:07
|
2023-12-21T10:10:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4EWfrvQrdAntQ63H9h7X
|
Will Democrats control both the House and Senate after the 2024 elections?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-16T07:53:15
|
2024-11-05T21:59:23
|
2024-11-05T21:59:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR
|
Will the U.S. win the gold medal in the Men's Basketball at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
|
Not the 3x3 basketball, the regular basketball.
|
2023-03-16T03:46:01
|
2024-08-11T03:04:54
|
2024-08-11T03:04:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E8RAMKIssTxwh9l9s16x
|
Will a fully AI-generated series or film be available on a major streaming platform before 2025?
|
This market resolves True if an end-to-end AI-generated film or series, in any style, is available to stream on a major streaming platform such as Netflix or HBO.
By end-to-end, this means that most (>50% by screentime) of the music, audio, visual and script components are AI-generated. If any of these components are missing, the media can still qualify, as long as those that are present count as AI-generated (e.g a film without any music could qualify, but not a film with 60% human music).
To qualify, the media must be >15 minutes long in length. Availability on free YouTube does not count, only a major paid subscription streaming platform.
|
2023-03-16T03:10:06
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T02:20:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NpXaV0tsqgr8wRtNcaf4
|
Will an athlete representing the U.S. win the Men's 100m dash at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-16T03:05:35
|
2024-08-04T13:09:26
|
2024-08-04T13:09:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5u7lo7IdugyqoDn87KmH
|
Will Open AI release a moderation AI tool using GPT-4 this year (2023)?
|
A product that is to be sold for integration with other platforms for automated mods, filtering <harmful, sexual, etc> type of content. Based on GPT-4
|
2023-03-16T00:43:07
|
2023-12-31T11:40:54
|
2023-12-31T11:40:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JqN2IXYcTzZaiLloRqdF
|
Will OpenAI change their name before January 1st, 2025?
|
OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research organization focused on creating and promoting friendly AI that benefits humanity as a whole. In recent years, OpenAI has become increasingly secretive about its research and development. For example, when OpenAI announced their GPT-4 model, they released minimal details about its training methodology and architecture.
This question will resolve as "Yes" if OpenAI officially changes its name before January 1st, 2025, as confirmed by an announcement from OpenAI or credible media sources. A name change includes any modification to the organization's primary name or brand identity that leads to a new name being widely adopted in official communications and public discourse.
The question will resolve as "No" if OpenAI has not changed its name by January 1st, 2025.
|
2023-03-15T21:08:21
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-06T13:28:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-47mxkwSZ4W3quSOqz0N2
|
Will Trump’s running mate be a woman?
|
Resolves YES if Trump's first announced 2024 VP pick is a woman. (If she later drops out or he changes his mind, this market will already have resolved YES.)
Resolves N/A if Trump drops out before selecting a running mate.
|
2023-03-15T21:00:10
|
2024-07-16T13:42:14
|
2024-07-16T13:42:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lVVvhgfZmZyXyADdA37h
|
Will Crystal Ballin' release at least 10 episodes in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-15T18:09:59
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T15:54:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eWRvL6mRf3blpaC5rUNV
|
DeSantis is against the U.S. sending Ukraine aid. Will he reverse his position as the 2024 presidential election nears?
|
To be clear, DeSantis doesn't have to do a complete 180 on his stance. Currently, he is more on the side of not providing Ukraine aid. If he changes his position to be more on the side of providing Ukraine aid, then this would resolve as a YES.
How do we know if he changes his stance sufficiently? Simple, we go by the concensus of the mainstream media such as NPR, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, Washington Post, The Times etc. If the majority of these reputable sources are saying that DeSantis is now mostly on the side of providing Ukraine with aid, then that is what I will base my decision on.
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163363579/desantis-trump-ukraine-republican-split
|
2023-03-15T17:46:11
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-05T02:38:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qJTJAf9vafBmAbwnmiKI
|
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?
|
Founder of the Wagner Group.
[image]
|
2023-03-15T16:41:37
|
2023-08-29T15:10:27
|
2023-08-29T15:10:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ibrMbUWoAc3uOyAGL42p
|
Will the Vesuvius Challenge grand prize be claimed?
|
Background: The Vesuvius Challenge is a machine learning and computer vision competition to read the Herculaneum Papyri. The Grand Prize ($150,000) will be awarded to the first team to render either one of the fully-scanned scrolls readable by 11:59pm Pacific, December 31st 2023.
|
2023-03-15T15:47:15
|
2024-01-31T23:59:00
|
2024-02-05T10:51:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HTfJOY9Om27Js9mjR2ng
|
Will OpenAI release a text-to-speech model before June 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-15T14:54:38
|
2023-05-31T15:00:00
|
2023-06-01T00:26:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KayNPZrFKu2xGsiSTOq1
|
Has ChatGPT peaked?
|
[image]
|
2023-03-15T14:11:46
|
2023-03-25T15:40:58
|
2023-03-25T15:40:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-StaMLjqdvTpV066cSW3s
|
Will Trump be indicted by May 31, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-15T13:48:31
|
2023-03-30T16:00:51
|
2023-03-30T16:00:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z1vCCTL7EKecF7xxppPB
|
Will there be a public transportation strike affecting 2024 Paris Olympics
|
A minor strike with only little impact would not count.
If it gets covered in news, with complaints from spectators, athletes or IOC, it resolves YES.
A strike the day after closing ceremony would count as participant needs to come back home.
I will not bet on this market, in case its just in between.
|
2023-03-15T12:03:24
|
2024-08-12T13:45:31
|
2024-08-12T13:45:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5ZWaOMH280VJMJwH0kr2
|
Will core EAs respond publicly in depth about the FTX crisis before July 2023?
|
Will a majority (eg 4/6) of the following orgs/people release a longform comment (including but not limited to writing or an EAG talk) on their thoughts about the FTX crisis that engages with their respective org/person should have done differently:
Will MacAskill (minded to resolve yes)
OpenPhilanthropy (minded to resolve yes)
CEA
Toby Ord (minded to resolve yes)
80k (minded to resolve yes)
FTXFF
Open to suggestions of other ones.
A piece by Will could count on behalf of several, but it has to actuall discuss that org's decisions/personal reflections to do so.
|
2023-03-15T06:38:35
|
2023-06-30T16:59:00
|
2023-07-31T04:40:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L5f8JDzueLshQQvWwaiI
|
Is the banking crisis contained?
|
At time of asking this question there were 3 banks* which have been seized in the US; all small-ish.
Is the banking crisis contained?
If a larger banking contagion becomes evident in 2023 with two or more big failures or five or more (more) regional failures or some equivalent combination thereof (1 and 3, say) then this question will resolve "no". If January 1st 2024 comes around without a cascade of failures then "yes".
A bailout counts as half a failure.
I'll be refraining from betting in here, since this is a slightly fuzzy resolution.
Edit: Current count since the first three: (4 Nov 2023)
1 Major seizure (First Republic)
1 Major bailout/acquisition (Credit Suisse)
1 Local failure (Heartland Tri-State, $140M)
1 Local failure (Citizens Bank of Sac City, $65M assets)
"No" resolution tracker:
If a major failure is 3 points and a regional failure is 1 point, for combined purposes 6 points will trigger "no" resolution.
We're currently at 4 1/2 points out of those 6 (1 1/2 pts from the CS bailout, 3 pts from the First Republic seizure, 0 pts from local banks incl Heartland and Iowa)
FAQ from the comments:
International banks with significant US presence, like CS, UBS, Deutschbank, etc., count.
IMF bailouts of central banks count as well
4 Nov 2023 clarification:
On local vs. regional
"local" being something different from "regional" and the lower end of regional being set at $10B assets is within the intent of this market, and the wording in the description. In case there's a contagion wave of smaller banks I'll add together the estimated assets of all banks below $10B, and if the sum hits $10B by the end of the year that'll count as another regional faillure. See "current count" above.
On fuzziness
Bonini's Paradox lives. I haven't bet in this market as mentioned above. When edge cases come up they will continue to be adjudicated in accordance with 1) the larger intent of the market, as represented by the original question, and 2) words chosen in the description, in that order. Fortunately, in this case, both are in alignment. The intent is to resolve on a systemic contagion becoming evident in 2023, and a 2-branch local bank going under doesn't have much to do with that, and shouldn't.
My bad
I missed that heartland was that small, originally. Lumping it into the "local" resolution category, and bringing the current points down from 5 1/2 to 4 1/2. Sorry for the confusion, I think this is the right answer.
Please continue to refrain from attempts to read the tea-leaves and find some definitional edge that means I have to resolve the market some counter-intuitive way. Save your time. Thank you all for the quality of the discussion in here so far.
*: SVB, Silvergate, Signature
|
2023-03-15T05:43:07
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-04T07:47:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FJhstqiqwWH2LmLFlSJK
|
Will a Badminton gold medal be won by a non-Asian country at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
|
There are 5 badminton gold medals up for grabs at the 2024 Olympics: the Men's singles, the Men's doubles, the Women's singles, the Women's doubles, and the Mixed doubles. If the gold medal for any of these events are won by athletes representing non-OCA (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Council_of_Asia) National Olympic Committees, then this market will resolve to YES.
|
2023-03-15T00:39:54
|
2024-08-05T08:39:14
|
2024-08-05T08:39:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FkcjFrdhMyTzxsNb3gaY
|
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before Sept 14th
|
e.g. WinoGrande >= 87.5%
|
2023-03-14T20:05:30
|
2023-09-14T20:59:00
|
2023-09-29T21:40:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KrXDYCxjeMFQeVhRSpqj
|
Will GPT-4's parameter count be publicly announced by the end of March?
|
This market resolves YES if credible reporting on GPT-4's parameter count is available by 11:59 PM EST on March 31, 2023. Credible reporting must be corroborated by OpenAI, and the reported parameter count must have at least 2 significant digits.
This market will resolve YES immediately after the above conditions are met. If they are not met at any point by the expiration date, this market resolves NO.
|
2023-03-14T18:28:53
|
2023-03-31T23:59:00
|
2023-04-01T12:10:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wOSwsuLJN8LL6RmANUlH
|
Will BTC (Bitcoin) be above $25000 by end of March?
|
End of March = March 31st 2023, 11:59pm GMT-7
$25000 = as defined by the Coinmarketcap BTC price
Yes = BTC price > 25000 USD on the specified timestamp
No = Otherwise
|
2023-03-14T17:56:41
|
2023-03-31T23:59:00
|
2023-04-01T11:18:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fkelbAoW45eIRMmxRGhn
|
Will any AI get a perfect score on the Putnam exam before April 2024?
|
Using the same resolution criteria as in the Metaculus question about this.
|
2023-03-14T17:34:15
|
2024-04-01T00:00:00
|
2024-04-08T18:04:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gbnNhvlCW5gsP4gg3e5T
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on a livestream with Destiny by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-14T17:10:02
|
2023-09-23T18:04:32
|
2023-09-23T18:04:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-10cbDvnS0Tbzn858SntH
|
Will any AI get a perfect score on the SAT before April 2024?
|
Inspired by https://twitter.com/chriscanal4/status/1635659396935045121
|
2023-03-14T14:55:55
|
2024-04-01T00:00:00
|
2024-04-15T17:24:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iaNdfPn3t7IKCH0dYy3T
|
Will GPT-5 be released before June 2024?
|
Must actually be named "GPT-5". (Or a variant like "GPT 5".)
|
2023-03-14T13:44:22
|
2024-06-27T05:19:50
|
2024-06-27T05:19:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b3gr2RLsjucjCclpy0EC
|
Will a FDIC-Insured Bank go bust by next week?
|
Mar 14, 10:21pm: Will a FDIC-Insurance Bank go bust by next week? → Will a FDIC-Insured Bank go bust by next week?
|
2023-03-14T11:52:18
|
2023-03-21T11:07:21
|
2023-03-21T11:07:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1sPHNT9iqGaRNCdLRHzO
|
Will South Korea win every gold medal in the archery events at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
|
There are 5 Archery gold medals up for grabs at the 2024 Summer Olympics. They are: Men's individual, Men's team, Women's individual, Women's team, and Mixed team. If South Korea wins all 5 of the gold medals up for grabs, then this market will resolve to YES.
|
2023-03-14T11:47:42
|
2024-08-04T11:33:43
|
2024-08-04T11:33:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ka0UE0vEziKf8TRFO2Fs
|
Will $TSLA close above $300 per share by December 30 2025?
|
I will resolve the market YES as soon as $TSLA closes at $300.00 per share or more. Once the market closes on December 30 2025, assuming it has never closed at $300.00 per share or more, I will resolve the market NO.
For reference, assuming no further stock sales, that would imply a valuation of $948 billion dollars.
|
2023-03-14T06:08:26
|
2024-11-08T13:29:49
|
2024-11-08T13:29:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FezNFrSLcmPpTHmbbT2U
|
Will there be another bank run in the US during 2023?
|
Now that 100 percent of deposits EVERYWHERE are fully FDIC insured it seems we may have seen the last run at least in the US?
|
2023-03-14T03:06:50
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:05:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FudGokby4xb00GqoT7JL
|
Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-4 is sentient?
|
This market resolves as positive if 2 or more credible sources claim GPT-4 is sentient within a month of GPT-4's release. It resolves as negative if a month has passed after GPT-4's release without that happening. Release means a substantial number of people outside of OpenAI are using GPT-4 and publicly discussing its capabilities. I will not trade in this market because the resolution criteria are too subjective.
The credible sources I have in mind are mostly individuals that I consider to have at least moderate expertise in digital minds and to be operating in good faith. The expertise bar is low, but the good faith bar is high. Some examples of credible sources—including people I strongly disagree with on related topics—are Amanda Askell, David Chalmers, Brian Christian, Patricia Churchland, Robert Long, Gary Marcus, Robert Miles, Raphaël Millière, Susan Schneider, Murray Shanahan, and Eliezer Yudkowsky. I will try to ignore whether these sources happen to agree with me on this topic and focus on their more general credibility. I will not focus on fame or formal credentials despite that list being well-known people. E.g., if a philosophy grad student writes a good-faith blog post arguing GPT-4 is sentient, that could easily count. For reference, I know of no credible sources who have claimed that GPT-3 meets the bar for sentience.
Note that there are many computer scientists who, despite me considering them experts in their field, would not count as credible on this particular topic. I will be particularly wary of academics who seem to be making claims for a catchy sound byte or Twitter thread, which I think is unfortunately common these days.
Regarding panpsychists or others who claim most or all physical systems are sentient or conscious to some degree, I will try to assess if they are claiming that GPT-4 is a substantial step beyond the sentience of past AI systems (e.g., GPT-2) and other programs like operating systems. For the purposes of this question, claims count if they refer to sentience, consciousness, phenomenology, or qualia.
|
2023-03-14T02:55:08
|
2023-04-15T21:59:00
|
2023-04-16T01:32:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bDzZo2gLjM16NhAsWp3D
|
Will Cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2024?
|
Will it be possible to buy Cannabis for recreational use in Germany for people over 18 years on December 31st 2024?
Mar 14, 9:21am: Will Cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2024? → Will cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2024?
Mar 14, 9:23am: Will cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2024? → Will Cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2024?
|
2023-03-14T01:19:21
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:56:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sO2KNcyDB54d7DoEEAzy
|
Will Vladimir Putin visit China in 2023?
|
Resolves based on credible news reports.
|
2023-03-13T19:47:31
|
2023-10-17T07:46:18
|
2023-10-17T07:46:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lX9zbjEQwVlhLPrp54c7
|
Will Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House" correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
See: The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia
Resolves:
N/A if Allan Lichtman does not make a prediction
YES if Allan Lichtman makes a prediction and it turns out to be correct
NO if Allan Lichtman makes a prediction and it turns out to be incorrect
|
2023-03-13T17:13:55
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T09:28:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RATVDC8VB5S20yIm5rID
|
Will the Fed lower the fed funds rate in the March 2023 meeting?
|
In the wake of the SVB crisis, some pundits have predicted that the Fed will move quickly to cut interest rates to stem the crisis.
How will the Fed set the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, March 21-22 2023? Resolves YES if they lower the rate, otherwise NO.
Related
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-b7103e6f1fbf)
|
2023-03-13T16:36:03
|
2023-03-22T13:59:16
|
2023-03-22T13:59:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BOe3H8UwWqzGgdEWpJfK
|
Will the Fed stop-and-go?
|
Pause then continue hiking
|
2023-03-13T16:07:38
|
2023-08-04T08:23:07
|
2023-08-04T08:23:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oFauHz38vdR2OvOwc9uu
|
Will Ireland win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
|
2023-03-13T14:44:04
|
2023-10-14T17:03:37
|
2023-10-14T17:03:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vsEn28S9De4EkHfMCze5
|
Will England win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
|
2023-03-13T14:00:26
|
2023-10-21T15:49:21
|
2023-10-21T15:49:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oeIf0S3Q0sSij9ncL1sL
|
Will France win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
|
2023-03-13T13:58:44
|
2023-10-15T17:54:23
|
2023-10-15T17:54:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LvBHgs3F5LFTDxUbSPBV
|
Will South Africa win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
|
2023-03-13T13:57:13
|
2023-10-28T14:25:05
|
2023-10-28T14:25:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nVzDcrrXypKnq9htibQZ
|
Will New Zealand win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
|
2023-03-13T13:54:59
|
2023-10-28T14:25:30
|
2023-10-28T14:25:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D9jsqGl7MLnNYOPuShFn
|
Will there be at least one New York Times article on AI every week in 2023?
|
Resolves if there's at least one week where the NYT doesn't have an AI-related piece.
Mar 13, 10:52am: Will there be at least one New York Times on AI every week in 2023? → Will there be at least one New York Times article on AI every week in 2023?
|
2023-03-13T10:50:01
|
2023-12-27T09:53:20
|
2023-12-27T09:53:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5fe3LCGodjIo5Z1bPvJm
|
Will the United States of America win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris?
|
Gold medal count only. Equal-most will also resolve to YES.
|
2023-03-13T10:15:37
|
2024-08-11T08:25:04
|
2024-08-11T08:25:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2jB7TGwgwPJMiIgnWdce
|
Will Terraform Industries begin to commercialize in 2024?
|
See https://terraformindustries.com/ and https://twitter.com/TerraformIndies
Terraform Industries is a carbon-capture company that claims to be "a bet on cheap solar, synthetic hydrocarbon supremacy, and hyperscale". Basically, they think solar power will be cheap enough to efficiently turn atmospheric CO2 into methane.
Previous market: https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-terraform-industries-sell-some#
Terraform already has a sales contract to sell an unspecified amount of methane, so that market resolved YES. This market is limited in scope to ONLY sales of the main Sabatier reactor product.
The specific criteria to resolve YES:
Selling, or contracting to sell, any electricity-to-hydrocarbon reactor (such as their sabatier reactor), or any large part of such a reactor, to be used for the purpose of storing solar energy as hydrocarbons. "Large part" means either the complete sabatier reactor, or the complete carbon concentrator.
Complicated leasing setups still count as a sale, as long as the transaction is "Party A gives Terraform money, and Terraform gives Party A a machine"
Resolves based on any information that's publicly available and/or shared with this market at close time. Note that by this design, they don't need to actually deliver by the end of 2024.
(Meeting these criteria in 2023 would also resolve YES, if they go that fast)
These criteria are fuzzy until 20 March, if anyone would like to suggest any improvements. After that I'll interpret them as written.
|
2023-03-13T01:24:29
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:18:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-otk5PCNEvcI0aqRgV7pV
|
Will Destiny be on stream with Lav again in March?
|
Talking to Lav is not necessary as long as they are in the same call/stream.
Mar 13, 1:20am: Will Destiny be on stream will Lav again in March? → Will Destiny be on stream with Lav again in March?
|
2023-03-13T01:19:24
|
2023-04-01T04:55:27
|
2023-04-01T04:55:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xarlqVPhaE6nrNie1NLQ
|
Will Zherka get 125K Subs in a year?
|
Mar 13, 12:32am: Will Zherka get 125K Subs this year? → Will Zherka get 125K Subs in a year?
|
2023-03-12T22:16:40
|
2023-08-24T14:57:42
|
2023-08-24T14:57:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wA7i1CRak0OHikKCO7Ex
|
Will the Connecticut Huskies win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Connecticut Huskies win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2023-03-12T16:11:24
|
2023-04-03T21:00:00
|
2023-04-03T23:32:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EXPBupirFYSV7nCwegp7
|
Will the SVB auction be successful?
|
Results positively if a buyer or consortium of buyers purchases Silicon Valley Bank in the auction that is being run by regulators.
For a positive resolution, at least 80% or more of SVB ownership must be purchased by the end of March.
I may trade on this market.
|
2023-03-12T13:28:52
|
2023-03-31T23:59:00
|
2023-04-01T11:32:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uuJohKqRKbTTW8fqMJZD
|
Will Jesse Signal OR Jamie Reed face any charges for HIPAA violations?
|
Related to this article:
https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/gender-clinic-whistleblower-jamie
Many people on twitter are claiming that the above article admits to HIPAA violations and that Jesse Signal or his source (Jamie Reed) will face charges. Resolves YES if charges are brought against either Signal or Reed for HIPAA violation (regardless of if they are convicted).
Resolves NO if no charges brought by close date (13/03/2024)
|
2023-03-12T12:54:09
|
2024-03-12T16:59:00
|
2024-03-13T00:15:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MlXTsrOyGqPghkEWJ31B
|
Will USDC crash this week?
|
Resolves YES if USDC trades at or below $0.50 per unit for at least a 4 hour period any time before March 20, 2023. I will use the price on CoinGecko as my benchmark (if there is some technical error or extenuating circumstance which makes this impossible, I will use my best judgment to find another reasonable source.)
|
2023-03-12T12:53:25
|
2023-03-19T16:59:00
|
2023-03-21T19:37:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fBbLOusBdfAYxqUm9B7n
|
Will Erdogan try to stop his main election opponent from running?
|
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has been chosen by a coalition of Turkish opposition parties to stand as their unified candidate. Will Erdogan do anything to prevent him from standing, such as arresting, poisoning, or assassinating him?
The popular front runner before the candidate was announced was Ekram Imamoglu, but in December 2022 he was jailed for calling the Supreme Election Council "fools".
Mar 12, 3:55pm: Will Erdogan’s main election opponent be prevented from running? → Will Erdogan try to stop his main election opponent from running?
|
2023-03-12T12:50:49
|
2023-05-28T15:30:36
|
2023-05-28T15:30:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HWUnYvRyxOEWq50FDAix
|
Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) stock price close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th?
|
Will measure the difference between the price at 8pm ET on Friday, March 10th and the price at 8pm ET on Monday, March 13th.
Mar 12, 1:58pm: Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th? → Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) stock price close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th?
|
2023-03-12T10:58:11
|
2023-03-13T16:59:00
|
2023-03-13T17:05:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9UCtqRaCv5DAIn40zAPA
|
Will there be another major bank run after the failure of the SVB in the US before March 15th?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-12T10:24:11
|
2023-03-14T16:59:00
|
2023-03-14T22:18:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kg6Z6RTUMxC9CN6lkb4C
|
Will Ron DeSantis be the winner of the Republican nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
Resolved when the Republican nominee for the 2024 election is announced.
|
2023-03-12T05:18:34
|
2023-11-06T15:59:00
|
2023-11-06T18:12:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TZDkA3000yZZ3renOHpN
|
Will Scott Alexander blog about Silicon Valley Bank this year?
|
In order for a post to resolve YES, it must be substantially about Silicon Valley Bank and events related to it (>33%). It's okay if that topic is then used as a springboard to another topic.
|
2023-03-11T21:53:16
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:24:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KKr0TKgsvV9RKjUpp2mY
|
Will Trump be indicted in New York by the end of March?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-11T15:56:09
|
2023-03-30T14:49:42
|
2023-03-30T14:49:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RcgcyvM2Ts9YPMcQpCmz
|
Will Destiny stream on Kick before April?
|
At least one stream of any length.
|
2023-03-11T15:01:01
|
2023-03-24T15:23:59
|
2023-03-24T15:23:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q6yhYvVy7whd5WTV3Pzy
|
Will Diane Feinstein resign from the Senate or die before her current term ends at the end of the 118th Congress?
|
Resignation or death counts as YES
Mar 12, 5:38am: Will Diane Feinstein resign from the Senate before her current term ends at the end of the 118th Congress? → Will Diane Feinstein resign from the Senate or die before her current term ends at the end of the 118th Congress?
|
2023-03-11T14:13:35
|
2023-09-29T06:48:01
|
2023-09-29T06:48:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wXQY0ICkqrHNr1rnJsVd
|
Will Mitch McConnell resign as Minority Leader by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-11T14:11:40
|
2023-12-31T14:16:55
|
2023-12-31T14:16:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OAtIlvm0bynDwK2RNns0
|
Will Biden file for reelection before May 1?
|
Resolves YES if before May 1, Biden files with the FEC as a candidate for US President in 2024. Otherwise NO.
Related: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2740-will-president-joe-biden-register-with-the-fec-to-run-for-us-president-in-2024-before-1-may-2023
President Biden filed his original Statement of Candidacy for the 2020 presidential election on 25 April 2019 (FEC - Biden Filings, Politico).
|
2023-03-11T13:47:06
|
2023-04-25T06:10:09
|
2023-04-25T06:10:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dX99LzKEiu8JHWhYHXX4
|
Will Biden be hospitalized overnight before August 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Biden is admitted to a hospital before August 1, 2024 and stays overnight. Otherwise NO.
(For reference, the reason this is asking about August 2024 is because that's when the Democratic National Convention is held, i.e. when the nominee is chosen.)
Elaboration of resolution criteria
Medical care at a hospital without an overnight stay would not count as YES.
If Biden is admitted on the last day of July and stays overnight through August 1, that counts as YES.
Examples that count as hospitalization for this question:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/senate-minority-leader-mitch-mcconnell-hospitalized-falling-rcna74097
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/dianne-feinstein-shingles-hospitalized/
Examples that do not:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-completes-medical-checkup-as-he-readies-for-2024-presidential-run
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/06/politics/joe-biden-consequential-week/index.html
|
2023-03-11T13:24:19
|
2024-08-01T16:59:00
|
2024-08-01T19:37:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vnTWZ9ktTZ6ERGV278Yk
|
Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
Shockingly I didn't see a market for this already
|
2023-03-11T10:28:13
|
2024-11-06T15:29:49
|
2024-11-06T15:29:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7KPADJugZeXQRw0Vidy7
|
Will China initiate an offensive military operation against Taiwan by the end of April?
|
There are only two months of the year when the tides make a landing on Taiwan possible, April and October. Xi Jinping just assumed absolute control of China for the first time since Mao died in 1976. We should all be asking ourselves "what would Mao do in Xi position today?"
|
2023-03-11T10:16:40
|
2023-04-30T20:59:00
|
2023-04-30T21:37:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qKNC29DzhwytkuQvzSPB
|
Will Elon Musk buy Silicon Valley Bank (before the end of 2023)
|
I have decided to create this market after this tweet: https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1634387164908724229
@unusual_whales
BREAKING: Elon Musk just said he is "open to the idea" to buy Silicon Valley Bank and become a digital bank.
(I'm pretty sure that this is joke/fake, but not the real quote from Elon, but I may be wrong)
This market will be resolved as "YES" if Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 and this market will be resolved "NO" if Elon Musk does not buy SVB till 2023.
The close date of this market is the first day of 2024.
|
2023-03-11T01:12:04
|
2024-01-01T12:59:00
|
2024-01-01T23:57:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7NWRmJTAMwWweQORFZ1i
|
Will Trump endorse DeSantis (for president)?
|
Resolves YES if Trump endorses DeSantis for president, else resolves NO on election day 2024.
Mirror market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottLawrence/will-desantis-endorse-trump-for-pre)
|
2023-03-10T18:57:03
|
2024-11-05T15:59:00
|
2024-11-11T02:48:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mwzR8GEVZCHtN8nU1D3y
|
Will the French retirement age be 64 years or more the 1 october 2023
|
The French government's want to increase the legal retirement age from 62 to 64, but it is controversial and many strikes are planned against it.
This resolve yes if the 1 october 2023 the retirement age in France is 64 years or more.
Mar 11, 7:04pm: Will the French retirement age be 64 years or more the 01/10/2023 → Will the French retirement age be 64 years or more the 1 october 2023
The choosen date for this market is because it is possible the government withdrew the law even after voting it, like for the CPE (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Employment_Contract)
There is a similar market with a different date here : https://manifold.markets/FlanAuxQuetsches/will-france-vote-a-pension-reform-e
|
2023-03-10T17:50:20
|
2023-09-30T16:59:00
|
2023-09-30T19:04:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ykCs0oLIFrR8NtSXa85f
|
Will Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin run for President of the United States in 2024 election.
|
Based in results of the 2024 primaries as reported in the Wall Street Journal.
Edit (7/24/23): He actually has to get on the ballot in at least one state, not just file paperwork. I will resolve early after a few states if the results are obvious.
|
2023-03-10T16:15:04
|
2024-01-29T14:37:54
|
2024-01-29T14:37:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vXjYAq1PdY1L885nFRKZ
|
Will Silicon Valley Bank receive monetary assistance from the Fed?
|
There is currently a bank run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and in 2008, the Fed provided liquidity to allow Wall Street to survive the financial crisis. Since then, better controls have been put in place for risk estimation but there is still a chance that the bank run will hit SVB hard. See more information here: What Happens When Banks Face A Liquidity Crisis - Finance Blvd
|
2023-03-10T16:14:52
|
2023-10-23T06:17:59
|
2023-10-23T06:17:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jfzC83RqTAe0GdjOjGKr
|
Will Destiny talk to Lauren Southern by the end of 2023?
|
[markets]
|
2023-03-10T14:33:44
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:10:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rv9hoIm7vGBgzjxxcR4C
|
Will any more banks with over 500MM in assets fail in 2023?
|
Ie need the FDIC to step in and liquidate assets to cover depositors. Does not include SVB.
Context: Silicon Valley Bank was closed Friday morning by state regulators and put under the control of the FDIC, after a bank run and capital crisis.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html
|
2023-03-10T13:52:56
|
2023-03-12T17:01:18
|
2023-03-13T07:10:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wLedWs2PNHgpQburcbVE
|
Will Silicon Valley Bank uninsured depositors recover 100% of their deposits within 1 year?
|
Resolves YES if uninsured depositors of Silicon Valley Bank recover all of their uninsured funds by March 10, 2024, according to official announcements or reporting by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO.
Context: Silicon Valley Bank was closed Friday morning by state regulators and put under the control of the FDIC, after a bank run and capital crisis.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html
|
2023-03-10T13:43:42
|
2023-03-13T14:08:01
|
2023-03-13T14:08:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2cvqdX8Kks932ekCqkU0
|
Will Silicon Valley Bank uninsured depositors recover at least 80% of their deposits within 1 month?
|
Resolves YES if uninsured depositors of Silicon Valley Bank recover at least 80% of their uninsured funds by April 10, according to official announcements or reporting by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO.
Context: Silicon Valley Bank was closed Friday morning by state regulators and put under the control of the FDIC, after a bank run and capital crisis.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html
|
2023-03-10T13:40:30
|
2023-03-13T14:09:02
|
2023-03-13T14:09:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ro5lmq4CGkIDjI4tdUeA
|
Will Tesla close higher than $173.44 on Friday, March 17th?
|
Only accounts market close price at 4:00pm Friday from Yahoo Finance.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA
|
2023-03-10T13:12:12
|
2023-03-17T20:59:00
|
2023-03-18T01:01:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QDy5m2SODwvgq0fee4JQ
|
Will 'Effective Altruism' reach 50% of previous US Google Trends peak in 2023?
|
November 13th to 19th is the previous peak.
To resolve I will look at https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Effective%20Altruism&hl=en and check if the line after Nov 19 ever seems to hit or surpass 50.
ETA 19 Nov 2023: I will actually change the time horizon of the linked chart to include the Nov 2022 peak.
Graph on Mar 10:
[image]Mar 10, 1:07pm: Will 'Effective Altruism' reach 50% of previous Google Trends peak in 2023? → Will 'Effective Altruism' reach 50% of previous US Google Trends peak in 2023?
|
2023-03-10T13:06:14
|
2023-12-04T17:47:24
|
2023-12-04T17:47:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NG6zcuG0pbonAqHl9LOZ
|
Will Russia control central Bakhmut before June 1?
|
Resolves YES if Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, at any point in time before June 1, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 31.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
[image](Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)
Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-marc)(Just making the title more descriptive, no change to the question itself): Will Russia control Bakhmut before June 1? → Will Russia control central Bakhmut before June 1?
|
2023-03-10T12:40:19
|
2023-04-21T14:32:21
|
2023-04-21T14:32:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-afK60xPAoXTiuq4kgDLM
|
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2024?
|
Popular for this market= 10mil+ users
Personal texts = dms, private chats, WhatsApp chats, discord dms, lw dms, etc.
|
2023-03-10T12:33:57
|
2024-05-31T23:29:00
|
2024-08-31T00:11:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YGD75pEOz75IQy5MsCka
|
Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of April?
|
A duplicate of this market, with a different date.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
|
2023-03-10T11:48:57
|
2023-04-17T05:51:03
|
2023-04-17T05:51:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gAsetOqEi2YKbugDHCo6
|
Will Silicon Valley Bank uninsured depositors be made whole?
|
Will all uninsured accounts be made whole by closing (Dec 31, 2025)? Resolves based on announcements from FDIC, SVB, or articles from reputable media sources.
[image]
|
2023-03-10T11:40:08
|
2023-03-13T13:07:00
|
2023-03-13T14:08:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uD5eHu6isuH5NF2FCFTV
|
Will the collapse of SVB directly lead to 10+ startups failing by the end of May?
|
If 10 or more startups announce that due to the events this week at SVB they need to liquidate and shutter operations. Will include acquisitions at significant discount to valuation at time of last funding, or if unavailable based on comments by the founders or investors on the reason for an unexpected or hastily executed sale.
|
2023-03-10T09:44:01
|
2023-05-31T20:59:00
|
2023-06-01T05:22:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K3MsQQE7JHlBVPAiTsLX
|
Will the Online Safety Bill pass in 2023?
|
The Online Safety Bill proports to promote the safety of the United Kingdom's children on the Internet. It has been critizied by various groups - The Internet Society and Open Rights Groups.
Signal, the encrypted messaging service, plans to defy the law and continue offering end to end encrypted services. WhatsApp is suggesting pulling out of the UK instead of complying (various news outlets but I don't see a press release by them).
This market resolves yes if the Online Safety Bill recieves Royal Assent during 2023. It will resolve no otherwise.
[markets][markets]
|
2023-03-10T09:09:50
|
2023-11-01T14:11:49
|
2023-11-01T14:11:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rEaW8QPcIXIrATcWVcRz
|
Will Silicon Valley Bank be publicly traded on Monday 3rd April 2023?
|
Resolves true if I can (in theory) buy a share of SIVB on Monday 3rd April.
|
2023-03-10T06:50:10
|
2023-04-03T22:59:00
|
2023-04-04T01:46:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6LMeXwYwm3y8oea1ZQzx
|
Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?
|
Smarter people than I have told me Wells Fargo and RBC are contenders.
|
2023-03-09T18:58:32
|
2023-03-17T16:59:00
|
2023-03-19T00:52:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ABFP940Ld1X852g62f6
|
Will Donald Trump be indicted multiple times by the end of 2024?
|
Will Donald Trump be indicted more than once for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2024?
There are indications that he may be indicted by a grand jury in Georgia, a grand jury in New York, federally, or in some other jurisdiction. Any of these could qualify.
|
2023-03-09T15:40:48
|
2023-06-09T05:40:15
|
2023-06-09T05:40:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m2hYXWuZNqJcaw48fGoe
|
GPT-5 by 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-03-09T15:21:38
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:46:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kczb5FbbAQlR6U04Jwb8
|
Will GPT-5 be released before December 31st, 2023?
|
Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any release before the end of December 31st (EST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).
Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.
Resolution based on my best judgment, thus I won't bet.
|
2023-03-09T13:21:09
|
2023-12-30T13:12:35
|
2023-12-30T13:12:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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