Datasets:
collingray
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forecasting

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mani-DJEO2PGv8CufoFBdbuEn
Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong upvotes before 2024?
Resolves to YES if this post attains 1,000 or more LessWrong upvotes at some point during 2023. By "upvotes" I mean the score listed at the top right corner of the post (773 at the time of posting), not the total number of votes that were positive. [image]Mar 9, 4:12pm: Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong karma before 2024? → Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong upvotes before 2024?
2023-03-09T13:10:31
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-01-06T05:43:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f7YmjeD02abOV2mcpuJx
Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?
Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count. Any release before the end of March 21st (EST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.). Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count. Resolution based on my best judgment, thus I won't bet.
2023-03-09T13:06:14
2023-03-14T10:33:21
2023-03-14T10:33:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-55bu9iTBi3WsYXNA0hry
Will Destiny be on Joe Rogan by the end of the year?
Resolve yes if an episode releases in 2023 where destiny is the guest Resolves no otherwise
2023-03-09T11:39:04
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T16:47:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2oRuk6WJVS3aaPrKlzFR
Will LowTierGod get (permanently) banned from Twitch before 2024?
He got unbanned today https://twitter.com/LowTiierGod/status/1633895468454531072 https://www.twitch.tv/lowtiergod EDIT: To clarify, BANNED means PERMANENTLY SUSPENDED. Temporary bans that last <30 days will not resolve this market YES.
2023-03-09T10:48:19
2023-12-31T14:00:00
2023-12-31T22:05:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BFBY9nUtm1vDz0dlszsM
Will LowTierGod get banned on Twitch before June?
He got unbanned today https://twitter.com/LowTiierGod/status/1633895468454531072 https://www.twitch.tv/lowtiergod EDIT: To clarify, BANNED means PERMANENTLY SUSPENDED. Temporary bans that last <30 days will not resolve this market YES.
2023-03-09T10:47:37
2023-05-31T13:44:46
2023-05-31T13:44:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Fx4K5hhmxAu9ZpcfElDK
Will there be physical violence at the 2023 Oscars?
Must happen on-stage during main official live broadcast. Real or fake/joke violence will count.
2023-03-09T03:41:45
2023-03-12T20:59:00
2023-03-13T05:59:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0KSuuWfgTLSxRX0LsY5V
Will be there be mass layoffs at Uber before 30th June, 2023?
Mass layoffs akin to Meta, Google, & Microsoft where Uber fires 5% or more of its full time employees.
2023-03-09T01:14:13
2023-06-30T11:29:00
2023-06-30T22:31:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qrYdFNPAFVhNWHDAkjXK
Will mrgirls manifesto on Destiny be longer than 200 pages when released?
As published on word, docs, etc. Will the stated page count be over 200? This will include images, imbeds, sources, etc. Opposite market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Pickle/will-mrgirls-manifesto-on-destiny-b-369d346731c7)
2023-03-08T21:57:53
2023-03-25T21:47:46
2023-03-25T21:47:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RPz0R7GkULbrKnCuYTkK
Will 3Blue1Brown publish a video about nice numbers by end of 2024?
Today I emailed Grant Sanderson, maker of the YouTube channel 3Blue1Brown, about 69 and the search for nice numbers (blog posts, market), and he actually responded! He said this: "Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Just reading your message, no special insight occurred to me, but it might be worth mulling over.  I'll throw it on the list of possible video topics (no promises, the list grows much faster than my ability to chip away at it!), and give it some better consideration once I'm finished with the current project." To count for this market, nice numbers do not need to be the primary topic of the video (which must be on the standard 3Blue1Brown YouTube channel), but it should at least include the basics of nice numbers: what a nice number is, that 69 is the only small one, and that (we think) there are many at higher bases. General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
2023-03-08T18:58:46
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:13:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Dz1gx6XjFGJzJUTnHobk
Will the Dias Lab's report of an N-doped lutetium hydride near-ambient superconductor be replicated by 2025?
The report was published in Nature on March 8th, 2023: Dasenbrock-Gammon, N., Snider, E., McBride, R. et al. Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride. Nature 615, 244–250 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-05742-0 This will resolve to yes if an independent replication is published in a reputable scientific journal before 01/01/2025. For more background, see: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00599-9 https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/ 06/29/2023 - Clarification on the Meaning of Replication: I will resolve this market yes if the publication demonstrates superconductivity up to similar standards as in Dasenbrock-Gammon et al., including the Meissner effect. I will not require an independent synthesis. The publication can use a sample obtained from the Dias Lab. However, the authors must verify that the sample composition is more or less consistent with what is reported in Dasenbrock-Gammon et al. I apologize for the initial confusion on these issues. Lesson learned.
2023-03-08T16:17:28
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T07:02:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f7CRgYjAKi7ETLUj0EJ4
Will there be an xkcd featuring the Shoggoth meme by the end of 2023?
Or in general an AI system personified as an eldritch horror; bonus points if it's masked.
2023-03-08T15:10:49
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T22:34:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NrHP9QcFg872vOhX0idy
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 World Championship?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-08T14:02:23
2023-10-16T07:51:18
2023-10-16T07:51:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UC9ofXT5REcW5NXWgEYa
Will Mr Girl reference Destiny's Islam arc in his manifesto?
https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal/status/1632797602822385665
2023-03-08T10:53:17
2023-03-25T18:00:13
2023-03-25T18:00:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QFBRsgup9ERZNxe72bfO
Will Kerbal Space Program 2 have Very Positive (85+) recent reviews on Steam two years after early access release?
Kerbal Space Program 2 was released into early access on February 24th, 2023 to mixed reviews. Will this game recover and get into a state more acceptable to players? Will resolve YES if the recent reviews on Steam for Kerbal Space Program 2 at 11:59 pm PST on February 24th, 2025 are at least 85%. Will resolve NO otherwise. Edit 2024-05-03: Added link to steam page
2023-03-08T09:49:22
2025-02-24T23:59:00
2025-02-25T07:39:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9g8TJS6YHDVMSxuWBxId
Will 'Starfield' avoid being delayed and come out on or before the scheduled release date of September 6th, 2023?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfield_(video_game) If Starfield comes out on or before September 6th, 2023, then this market will resolve to YES. If that day passes and it hasn't come out (for example because it has been delayed) then this market will resolve to NO.
2023-03-08T09:32:33
2023-09-01T22:10:18
2023-09-01T22:10:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gXnxwrc8I9Bl1d0EWhbZ
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of March, 2024?
If it can play games that the old Switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll probably count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube). If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Advance SP).
2023-03-08T07:49:38
2024-04-02T05:30:00
2024-04-02T08:55:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JLZycFnqCYoyHSlzRIPQ
Will S&P 500 increase in 2024?
Will the closing price (C) of the last trading day of 2024 be higher than the opening price (O) on the first trading day of 2024. If C > O then YES If C == O then NO If C < O then NO N/A if there are less than 2 trading days in 2024. Other questions on this topic Will S&P 500 increase in 2024? (this question) Will S&P 500 increase in 2025? Will S&P 500 increase in 2026?
2023-03-08T07:25:40
2024-12-31T13:00:00
2024-12-31T13:29:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hdbSV52nEOxKpd6vvaCm
Will Destiny confirm boxing match with anyone by the end of 2023?
Will Destiny start training, or at least confirm boxing exhibition match with another content creator by the end of the year.
2023-03-08T06:48:53
2023-12-31T22:59:00
2024-01-08T11:30:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gUgwtDRMaI53FJd7itBt
Will Sarah Wagenknecht be a member of a German party other than "Die Linke" by the end of 2024?
This market resolves to YES if Sarah Wagenknecht is a member of a party other than her current party (Die Linke) by the end of 2024. This market resolves to NO if she is only a member of "Die Linke" or if she is not a member of any party.
2023-03-08T00:35:19
2025-01-01T14:59:00
2025-01-10T18:52:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qVfCVFL1pDRq8nyLArLZ
Will Sarah Wagenknecht be a member of a German party other than "Die Linke" by the end of 2023?
This market resolves to YES if Sarah Wagenknecht is a member of a party other than her current party (Die Linke) by the end of 2023 . This market resolves to NO if she is only a member of "Die Linke" or if she is not a member of any party.
2023-03-08T00:26:42
2024-01-01T14:59:00
2024-01-02T02:10:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eHz7u8tNGEHDXhradWLd
Will anyone joke about the slap at the Oscars 2023?
[image]
2023-03-07T16:53:47
2023-03-12T15:00:00
2023-03-12T21:06:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-KTIQSfojRhvwuyB2a92r
Will Arsenal win this (22/23 season) premier league
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-07T13:20:20
2023-05-23T16:59:00
2023-05-24T00:24:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BafZvXyL47WBAXfnhDsu
Will any podcast episode featuring Eliezer Yudkowsky as a guest get more than 1 million views on YouTube before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-07T12:45:35
2023-04-06T16:31:52
2023-04-06T16:31:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5UBe9gTzxmPOIZXMjDMj
Will any podcast episode featuring Eliezer Yudkowsky as a guest get more than 5 million views on YouTube before 2024?
Any podcast episode of any podcast can count so long as Yud is the guest.
2023-03-07T12:44:19
2024-01-01T05:16:03
2024-01-01T05:16:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-O8HQvFthF03qYOSaUo9R
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket achieve orbit on its first launch?
For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. Achieve orbit means pushing the payload to orbital velocity.
2023-03-07T10:32:17
2025-01-25T10:41:39
2025-01-25T10:41:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0zPqOyDHG6Y0FbCSTrdN
Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2023?
This prediction will resolve as “Yes” if, between 2023-01-01 and 2023-12-31, at least 100,000 additional Russian soldiers are mobilized, as confirmed by reliable third-party sources such as NATO, the UN, the US State Department, or the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The mobilization must be specifically related to the war in Ukraine, rather than the regular 12-month conscription that happens every year. This confirmation must be verifiable and come from a reliable source, not just from Russian government sources, in order for the prediction to resolve as “Yes.” The prediction will resolve as “No” if the above criteria are not met. If there is a lack of consensus on how many soldiers were mobilized during 2023, this market will resolve as 'N/A'. For context, ~300k soldiers were mobilized by Russia in 2022. UPDATE/CLARIFICATION: - Note that the soldiers explicitly have to "mobilized", so "volunteers"/"kontraktniki" are excluded.
2023-03-07T10:07:21
2023-12-31T09:20:01
2023-12-31T09:20:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CR96xt5e13DlFM3KKhBF
Will United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket achieve orbit on its first launch?
For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. Achieve orbit means pushing the payload to orbital velocity. The next launch attempt is on 8 January 2024.
2023-03-07T10:01:17
2024-01-08T05:32:18
2024-01-08T05:32:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BL1GFTzbg0PHHakd3Ifl
Will Mark Cavendish surpass Eddy Merckx's 34 Tour de France stage wins in this year's tour?
Cavendish has won 34 Tour de France stages, tied first on the all-time stage win list with Eddy Merckx. This season with Astana Qazaqstan is likely his last chance to beat that record. A good overview here: https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-mark-cavendish-beat-merckxs-tour-de-france-record-at-astana/
2023-03-07T09:28:11
2023-07-08T08:17:07
2023-07-08T08:17:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vx0BT2jQnphSGFnaWT68
Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-07T06:41:37
2024-09-23T09:36:36
2024-09-23T09:36:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kIUCKyn5U0F0gAl3B4ty
Will annual inflation in Czech Republic be smaller than 11% in 2023?
Current prognosis of the Czech National Bank gives 10.8% (Celková inflace (%)) https://www.cnb.cz/cs/menova-politika/prognoza/ The market will be resolved according to report of the Czech National Bank on the same pages, once it is published. (For 2022, it was published in Feb 2023).
2023-03-07T02:29:34
2024-02-08T12:43:49
2024-02-08T12:43:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XVIta1kZI3zjGeyjnsuJ
Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2024?
There is speculation that Meta is quietly killing its metaverse offering (horizon worlds). By the end of 2024 will meta announce its shutting down the horizon worlds servers? https://www.indy100.com/amp/mark-zuckerberg-meta-dead-metaverse-2659497063 Longer term market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/PhatFree/will-meta-announce-its-shutting-dow-c208272bdc12)
2023-03-06T23:01:16
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-02T09:57:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iVGOClDuTi3vMXE4kVxw
Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?
This post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7PumeYTDPfBTp3i7/the-waluigi-effect-mega-post Mar 6, 6:07pm: Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach 1k upvotes by the end of 2023? → Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes by the end of 2023? Mar 6, 6:17pm: Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes by the end of 2023? → Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?
2023-03-06T18:07:27
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T13:11:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MslrlWmdpFiL2RUWqVDr
Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2023?
Will resolve YES if the Kurzgesagt channel publishes a video on AI alignment or explicitly AI and its risks (i.e. not on broad existential risk) before the deadline.
2023-03-06T17:02:10
2023-08-01T04:04:06
2023-08-01T04:04:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QUEtrcVTpkxpkTOs2SfX
Will Max Verstappen Finish On Podium Of The Formula 1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix on 03/19/2023?
https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2023/Saudi_Arabia.html Will Close At Race Start [Estimated 1pm EST (03/19/2023)] *Will Resolve At Race End [Estimated To Be By 3pm EST (03/19/2023)] *Podium = Top 3 Finish *If Race Ends Under A Red Flag (Race Suspended/Halted) Without Completing Full Distance Than This Will Resolve As N/A Regardless Of Podium. *If Race Is Canceled This Will Resolve As N/A.
2023-03-06T16:36:17
2023-03-19T11:30:11
2023-03-19T11:30:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-25IoG1ILG1CIQtxBFp1n
Will Victoria's Secret's next televised annual fashion show include any biologically male transgender females?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-06T14:21:33
2023-12-16T18:15:32
2023-12-16T18:15:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MNv7O7w7kgW6K3eZBV0t
Will any Country in Southamerica make the US Dollar its official currency by EOY 2023?
This market resolves Yes, if any of the following countries (or legal successors of those) makes the US Dollar its official currency until 1.1.2024. Venezuela, Guyana, French Guyana, Suriname, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, Ecuador - only if they make the US Dollar not anymore an official currency and than make it an official currency again -> an example would be Indroducing the Nuevo Sucre on 1st of April 2023, making US Dollar illegal from the 2nd of April and than making the US Dollar an official currency again on 3rd of April. [image]
2023-03-06T13:55:43
2023-12-31T17:36:44
2023-12-31T17:37:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6iuksTLzp8JqbbJYv3pW
Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024?
This resolves yes if Google Trends shows that the daily search volume about the "AI Alignment" topic was higher than that about the "Light Pollution" topic, for any day before the end of 2024. Go here to see how they compared over the last 30 days: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&q=%2Fg%2F11bzrg63f7,%2Fm%2F04mw9 Edit: this is about global search volume
2023-03-06T12:47:11
2024-12-31T22:00:00
2025-01-05T17:08:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZqzNBpDXePs9n6WjiXKe
Will Lebanon officially abandon the Lebanese Pound and adopt the US Dollar as their national currency by the end of 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-06T12:35:31
2023-12-31T20:33:01
2023-12-31T20:33:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DD8KbdLKof4oJngRX128
Will "The Waluigi Effect" post on LessWrong receive >=800 karma by March 31st?
Resolves "Yes" if the https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7PumeYTDPfBTp3i7/the-waluigi-effect-mega-postwal has >= 800 karma at 06:00 GMT on 3/31/23.
2023-03-06T12:29:01
2023-03-31T16:59:00
2023-03-31T17:39:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w0aatsRGgnyeRH2MGS4A
Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?
Resolves yes if anytime before end of year 2024 there is a video on the Kurzgesagt YouTube channel that I deem to be about the AI Alignment Problem. It does not have to mention the words "alignment problem" but must describe the same thing.
2023-03-06T12:03:22
2024-12-31T22:00:00
2025-01-05T17:07:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xr7I5QvKmzy6iMzX4TWd
Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation by May 1, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-06T08:50:42
2023-05-01T14:59:00
2023-05-03T05:00:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vn4WwyGv6Iv3maoQGelG
Will manifold.markets be added to the allowlist of websites SBF is permitted to access while awaiting trial?
Explanation of the proceedings and SBFs current allowlist.
2023-03-06T07:43:48
2023-10-03T08:59:00
2023-10-03T09:10:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-blfOgW8Ni7TpRGZRAbBw
Will the Germany-wide public transport ticket ("Deutschlandticket") cost 49 Euro or less per month in December 2024?
A Germany-wide public transport ticket ("Deutschlandticket") will start in May 2023 at a monthly price of 49 Euro per month. If you still can get the ticket for 49 Euro per month in December 2024 this market will resolve to YES. If the ticket costs more than 49 Euro or if the ticket is not available anymore the market will resolve to NO. If the price is 49 Euro or less, but the scope of the ticket is reduced in a significant way (e.g it is not valid anymore for one or more Bundesländer) the market will resolve to NO.
2023-03-06T01:04:31
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-25T14:54:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-B2DBblwcw0iD1WUIMQdW
Will Apple's market cap go up during 2023?
Resolves YES if Apple's market cap is higher on January 1, 2024 than it was January 1, 2023.
2023-03-06T00:53:04
2023-12-31T03:17:24
2023-12-31T03:17:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uLoNf1OsWZkMD3KseFJe
Will kanye west release new music this year?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-05T21:01:10
2023-11-18T23:53:30
2023-11-18T23:53:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sEFB7obmFp0Lp2KxmDwm
Will Gordon Moore(Founder of Intel) Die this year
[markets]
2023-03-05T15:23:31
2023-03-30T13:38:26
2023-03-30T13:38:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3zwrdf4vwZJ4SHi6yVQf
Will Destiny talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky on his channel in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-05T13:45:56
2023-09-24T18:28:40
2023-09-24T18:28:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HE5ql1Lg89HDQD3dUZjN
Will Justin Trudeau attend King Charles coronation?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-05T11:50:52
2023-05-07T12:45:00
2023-05-07T12:45:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QxuTp4QHYRTV6pQm7ezd
Will a new Counter-Strike game be released in 2023?
A beta would not count for the purposes of this question. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-Strike Feel free to ask questions about resolution criteria in the comments.
2023-03-05T10:58:55
2023-09-27T14:28:26
2023-09-27T14:28:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qpvZznej24csnBoWNdJh
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be a guest on the 80000 hours podcast in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-05T06:55:28
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:34:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I21LyMwBX3ndBr7y6N7E
Will Eliezer go on a Dwarkesh podcast in 2023?
Doesnt have to be released as long as proof is provided an interview actually took place that will eventually be aired.
2023-03-05T02:21:36
2023-04-06T09:11:05
2023-04-06T09:11:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UbQTSjeOdBmjHXRAcbwm
Will Billie Eilish come out as transgender by 2025?
Will resolve YES if she states in an interview, social media, or on any other public forum that she is transgender (or whatever the equivalent term will be at the time). Will also resolve YES if she annouces that her preferred pronouns no longer include "she/her". Leaked private info will not count.
2023-03-05T00:59:27
2024-12-31T13:59:00
2024-12-31T14:49:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wAuayqNdcTkTXK57kNXZ
Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy attend the G20 meeting in India Sept 9-10?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-04T23:31:38
2023-09-10T20:59:00
2023-09-11T07:26:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OwsppSS5RbCUKuk47LRE
Will Vladimir Putin attend the G20 meeting in India Sept 9-10?
In 2022 Putin was forced to bail last minute, but 2023 host India and its president Narendra Modi are among the few friends Russia and it's ailing president have left.
2023-03-04T23:30:15
2023-09-10T20:59:00
2023-09-11T07:26:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3LdqHc3KEzmNkjTn2BlU
Will Valentina Shevchenko win the rematch with Alexa Grasso?
Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso are scheduled to fight again on September 16th, 2023 at a UFC event in Las Vegas, Nevada. If Valentina Shevchenko wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Alexa Grasso wins or it is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.
2023-03-04T21:32:29
2023-09-16T21:57:09
2023-09-16T21:57:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-u0LXqDtGmgINYkKx2N0Z
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be interviewed on Joe Rogan's podcast by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-04T14:35:35
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T23:49:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UIkQe8lGejBFKlXuaiGr
Will GPT-4 be released before May 1st, 2023?
Will resolve with the same criteria as: (https://manifold.markets/embed/elibutchad/will-gpt4-be-released-before-march)"Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts. Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count. Any release before the end of before May 1st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.) Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count. Resolution based on my best judgment."
2023-03-04T14:00:58
2023-03-14T14:20:19
2023-03-14T14:20:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tRiBcvWMst81h4CZrCA3
Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic ticket?
Either as VP or P resolves YES.
2023-03-04T13:56:40
2024-08-25T12:02:45
2024-08-25T12:02:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ
Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?
Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through April 20. See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. [image]The specific location used for this question is: on the ISW interactive map, the dot if you search "Bakhmut 2". The shading of the map over the center of the dot when fully zoomed in will be used for resolution. (Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.) Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023 (Just making the title more descriptive, no change to the question itself): Will Russia control Bakhmut by April 20? → Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?
2023-03-04T06:52:20
2023-04-20T16:59:00
2023-04-20T17:15:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uMdfaggEdzxuu6D41pH8
Will Russia control Bakhmut by March 31?
Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by March 31, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. Orange shading does not count as YES. [image](Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.) Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023 Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-apri)
2023-03-04T06:51:16
2023-04-01T12:40:37
2023-04-01T12:40:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mFaPV2b5MN11WsyQ6hTa
Will King Charles III visit Taiwan by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-04T06:38:12
2023-12-31T20:42:47
2023-12-31T20:42:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kQLHZ6udXMckWVFdHona
Will King Charles visit the White House in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-04T06:30:24
2023-12-31T20:41:25
2023-12-31T20:41:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iCGcS62qwpQKN50Uulcg
Will MBS attend King Charles coronation?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-04T06:28:02
2023-05-07T12:44:34
2023-05-07T12:44:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WxTCKAWDFm09C1QBXzif
Will the Dali Lama attend King Charles coronation?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-04T06:27:04
2023-05-07T12:47:43
2023-05-07T12:47:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6jEvcduFivrA0dxiDRWH
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of June, 2024?
Feel feel to ask questions in the comments about the resolution criteria if there's anything you're wondering about.
2023-03-04T03:34:10
2024-07-02T05:30:00
2024-07-02T06:02:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xCxcJ6bVyEfElmUxd02X
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of 2024?
Feel feel to ask questions in the comments about the resolution criteria if there's anything you're wondering about. If it can play games that the old Switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll probably count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube). If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Advance SP).
2023-03-04T03:29:05
2024-12-31T07:44:42
2024-12-31T07:44:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BqC1D51cZWP1sLHE4Rol
Will there be a million dollar mistake publicly blamed on ChatGPT before 2024?
Resolves as Yes if there's a story run in at least two media outlets (and not debunked as a fake) where a person has a million dollar loss and blames it on ChatGPT. it doesn't matter if this blame makes no sense, they just have to unambiguously and publicly put responsibility on what that tool said. To be specific: "I did something, because ChatGPT told me, and it caused a loss" - YES "I said something to someone, because ChatGPT told me, and it caused them (and subsequently me) a loss" - YES "We had something in our database because ChatGPT filled the info in a particular way, and it was wrong, and we based our decision on that, and that caused a loss" - YES But: "We based our business model on general ChatGPT usage and it turned out not be a good business model" - NO "We used ChatGPT successfully, but then regulators fined us because ChatGPT is forbidden" - NO "We used ChatGPT successfully and then hackers read the logs of what we told it and hacked us" - NO Also blame should be assigned or implied: "Yeah, I used ChatGPT for research, and then I didn't really double check, to hell with that tool" - YES "Yeah, I used ChatGPT for research, and then I didn't really double check, and it's 100% my fault and my responsibility" - NO "Yeah, I used ChatGPT for research, and then I didn't really double check, so like, I'm 90% to blame" - YES That is to say, it should be a specific event of using ChatGPT and failing because of what it said, and not about some kind of a general idea of using it. Mar 5, 2:06am: Will there be a million dollar personal mistake blamed on ChatGPT before 2024? → Will there be a million dollar mistake publicly blamed on ChatGPT before 2024?
2023-03-04T01:03:08
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-03T08:33:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CtzpOtQy8JDL4Z31YAO7
Will Alexei Navalny be alive at the start of 2025?
Alexei Navalny is a Russian politician and Putin's critic. He survived an assassination attempt widely linked with Russian secret services. He is currently imprisoned. I will use media sources and my best judgement to determine if he is alive.
2023-03-03T22:18:43
2024-02-16T09:20:42
2024-02-16T09:20:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VjRTt8a1pHvGCyAy5GcT
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024?
If OpenAI does not exist in January 1st 2024: And a clear successor organization exists: If Sam Altman occupies an unique (within this successor organization) office of roughly equivalent executive power, this resolves as YES. Otherwise, this resolves as NO. If OpenAI still exists in January 1st 2024, but has no CEO: If Sam Altman occupies an unique (within OpenAI) office of roughly equivalent executive power, this resolves as YES. Otherwise, this resolves as NO. This market will not resolve until January 1st 2024. As it is possible that Sam Altman ceases to be the CEO of OpenAI, and then returns before that date.
2023-03-03T20:04:25
2024-01-01T13:56:59
2024-01-01T13:57:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DJdjEb1WpEkXAGyeaZqg
Will MrGirl announce that the article was a joke on April 1st?
This can be serious OR a joke.
2023-03-03T19:24:22
2023-04-02T21:59:00
2023-04-18T13:15:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zLbprunQgHRp9RKJnFJv
Will Germany with "LORD OF THE LOST - Blood & Glitter" reach the Top 10 at the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
Lord of the Lost will compete with "Blood an Glitter" for Germany at the Eurovision Song Contest 2023. Will they reach the Top 10? Link to the official Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I9CYu668jA
2023-03-03T15:44:44
2023-05-13T17:00:00
2023-05-14T08:47:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZCofPEyZhE0avDcKO34w
Will student loan payments resume by Sep 1st?
Resolves YES the current forbearance on student loan payments ends before or on September 1, 2023. Notice that if the law that delays payments ends before or on September 1st, and interest starts accruing this market will resolve YES even if the deadline for the first payment is after September 1st. Context: "Payments and interest were suspended in March 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the restart date has been pushed back eight times by two administrations" https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/loans/it-could-be-months-before-borrowers-find-out-when-student-loan-payments-will-resume/
2023-03-03T14:43:02
2023-09-01T06:48:12
2023-09-01T06:48:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-icjqtHgOVExh6jmT40xx
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Scott?
History says Cruz should be the favorite as the runner up in 2016. Tim Scott is clearly gearing up for a run. Maybe a team worth considering out of the gate?
2023-03-03T14:21:53
2024-07-15T13:01:47
2024-07-15T13:01:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZPZGjMUIzkZzKFc63nxU
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Sununu?
History says Cruz should be the favorite as the runner up in 2016.
2023-03-03T14:20:47
2024-08-11T08:00:30
2024-08-11T08:00:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Dna3QEigN7WubGIA2p3p
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Haley?
History says Cruz should be the favorite as the runner up in 2016.
2023-03-03T14:20:27
2024-05-04T17:36:20
2024-05-04T17:36:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UNPLwwiYXNvPscl5bL7g
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Bolton?
History says Cruz should be the favorite as the runner up in 2016.
2023-03-03T14:20:15
2024-05-10T11:06:03
2024-05-10T11:06:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cX53QwHuXyiTA2UNKjGn
Will Elon Musk use the term "democratise AI" until the end of 2023?
This market resolves positively if, until 01.01.2024 UTC+0, Elon Musk uses the term "democratise AI" or "democratising AI" (or minor variations): in writing (e.g. a Tweet, or a direct quote in a newspaper) in speech (e.g. in a discussion panel, or in a tv interview) This market does not resolve positively if it uses different phrasings to convey similar concepts, like "democratic solutions to AI" or "AI accessed democratically". It doesn't matter whether Musk uses the term favourably or unfavourably. It doesn't matter what Musk appends to the term (e.g. "democratise AI Use" vs. "democratise AI Governance").
2023-03-03T13:51:39
2023-12-31T15:00:00
2024-01-10T02:36:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KgmRwHvBn0BFV0tNiOtx
Will Nancy Pelosi run for re-election in 2024?
This market resolves to YES if Nancy Pelosi registers for re-election before the filing deadline in December 2023.
2023-03-03T13:18:18
2023-12-08T18:00:00
2023-12-09T02:44:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IxUvWchDho29UeDNyYdC
Will an arrest be made over the leaked LLaMA weights?
e.g. for intellectual property violations Resolves positively if there are credible news reports of it happening this year. The person who leaked the weights appears to have left a unique download URL in the torrent: [tweet]Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/finnhambly/will-there-be-public-reports-of-a-m)
2023-03-03T11:31:52
2023-12-31T16:00:00
2024-01-03T09:16:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UPFTl9h30HipItXscl6i
Will China provide Russia with lethal support in their Ukraine invasion efforts in March?
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/03/1160849404/u-s-germany-aim-to-deter-china-from-supplying-russia-with-weapons-against-ukrain
2023-03-03T07:02:44
2023-04-01T04:59:18
2023-04-01T04:59:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pcLlvTp0ELpyLlWw5Rg9
Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in March?
https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1631011297335599104
2023-03-03T06:43:54
2023-04-01T04:47:39
2023-04-01T04:47:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zaac1JGSe63Y0Ctx2vVO
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Pompeo?
History says Cruz should be the favorite as the runner up in 2016.
2023-03-03T02:54:59
2024-05-05T10:20:20
2024-05-05T10:20:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lMMnEOeEGCStOl71b1yb
Will Paul Vallas be elected Mayor of Chicago?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-03T02:50:33
2023-04-05T09:12:00
2023-04-05T09:12:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-c3hreLwkaZ69aRIBdJVY
Will the controversial judicial reforms under consideration in Israel be passed and signed into law by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-03T02:49:11
2023-08-07T12:44:40
2023-08-07T12:44:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PvAoXnSaAVc1bL7KUSbY
Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in person during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-03T02:47:53
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:05:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oSrht1PqHMijGTkQ7gmn
Will Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu be admitted to a hospital for any reason during the remainder of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-03T02:46:10
2023-12-31T20:19:21
2023-12-31T20:19:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IOLc2UPHZxmYMZKpX0Oo
Will Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov be admitted to a hospital for any reason during the remainder of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-03T02:44:22
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:05:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dUT3xkYVNeLBn8m03HQF
Will Elon Tweet every week in 2023
Replies, retweets, and likes don't count; they must be tweets. Market resolves False if there is a seven day period without tweets. Deleted tweets count as tweets if they can be confirmed. Counting starts from market creation time.
2023-03-03T00:02:02
2024-01-02T16:00:32
2024-01-02T16:00:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jjF9gScidsiAl7owmCeb
Will Donald Trump tweet from @realDonaldTrump before April 1?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump
2023-03-02T15:08:52
2023-04-01T16:59:00
2023-04-01T17:06:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KUtzK9R4O3fuMAmOnM2E
Will the failure of a SpaceX rocket result in a human casualty by the end of 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-02T14:23:06
2023-12-31T20:12:44
2023-12-31T20:12:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yLBeTmqtTcfoHGILzFSh
Will the mpox (monkeypox) outbreak end in 2023?
Resolves YES if there are 7 days in a row where the reported confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide are 0, as reported by Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox I will resolve as soon as the above condition is met or as soon as there is data for December 31st. Notice that there could be adjustments on the data later, but I will resolve with the first data available.
2023-03-02T13:48:32
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-26T06:03:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cBzziGB660mSZC30Jk67
Will there be >=90,000 confirmed cases of mpox (monkeypox) worldwide by the end of the year?
Resolves to YES if there are 90,000 or more confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of December 31, 2023 from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox Bidding closes at the end of the year, but I will resolve as soon there are more than 90K cases reported or whenever there is data for December 31. Please notice that the data from the link above might change for December 31 after it is first available, but I will resolve according to the first number of cases available for December 31. If Our World in Data stops reporting, I might use another trusted source (for example WHO). If the outbreak is considered to be over before 90K cases, I will resolve NO, even if there is no source with an actual cases for December 31st.
2023-03-02T13:25:59
2023-09-12T11:25:55
2023-09-12T11:25:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OueizLMjIm9bPExNkrDu
Will the Long Cramer Fund outperform the Inverse Cramer Fund in 2023?
Resolves YES if the Long Cramer Fund https://www.crameretfs.com/ljim has higher YTD total return at the end of 2023 than the Inverse Cramer Fund https://www.crameretfs.com/sjim, otherwise NO. (Total return includes dividends, if any) Both ETFs launched today at $25. https://www.etftrends.com/2-etfs-offer-inverse-and-long-exposure-to-jim-cramer-stock-picks/ TV personality Jim Cramer may be the most well-known stock picker. Now, investors can capitalize on the “Mad Money” host’s recommendations — right or wrong — with the launch of two actively managed ETFs. Tuttle Capital Management announced the launch of the Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF (CBOE: SJIM) and the Long Cramer Tracker ETF (CBOE: LJIM), both of which begin trading on the CBOE today. The ETFs offer investors “one-ticker” access to take sides on what Cramer publicly recommends on CNBC or Twitter.
2023-03-02T12:18:12
2023-12-31T16:52:00
2023-12-31T21:35:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-j5S6p92SNEn11B6awlZ8
Will a ChatGPT-comparable chatbot be available within China at the end of this year?
ChatYuan was briefly online and shut down for being, shall we say, "poorly aligned". See here, for instance: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4807319 This market resolves YES if, at the end of this year, a Chinese-speaking chatbot comparable to ChatGPT in performance is broadly available (without needing VPNs or other workarounds) in China. ETA April 13: "ChatGPT comparable" refers to what is being called "GPT 3.5". Improvement like GPT 4, and whatever comes out later this year, don't need to be matched.
2023-03-02T10:39:11
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-15T20:58:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZaZY3tWi8JPMSgApgMaq
Will George Santos still be a Congressman at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-02T08:58:34
2023-12-01T10:10:53
2023-12-01T10:10:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EXN5W87EdXNrFOYjFg9A
Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut in March?
https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1631011297335599104
2023-03-02T08:26:37
2023-03-31T23:59:00
2023-04-01T04:43:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4zZTQdrzMS6tXtcHzwwG
Will at least one post (>500 words) by Zvi Mowshowitz in 2023 be primarily written by an AI?
A post counts if the majority of the words not quoted from linked sources originated from any combination of AIs. Must be minimum 500 words in length.
2023-03-02T07:11:15
2023-12-30T06:14:16
2023-12-30T06:14:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MeqERTF8k9ph7057CKJc
Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win any Academy Awards?
EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 1 of those 11.
2023-03-02T05:22:13
2023-03-12T18:06:47
2023-03-12T18:06:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vWq1oMgCQTigrGwV0NR3
Will Apple receive FDA clearance for a no-prick blood glucose monitor by the end of 2024?
Rumors are Apple has made major progress on the holy grail for continuous glucose monitoring.
2023-03-02T03:04:42
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:37:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5a29QbYRoWy36z1PRpSW
Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win multiple Academy Awards?
EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 2 of those 11.
2023-03-01T23:43:37
2023-03-12T18:07:53
2023-03-12T18:07:53
yes
MANIFOLD