id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-EVCAP9bd3l7WE3wgM8hF | Will Microsoft go bankrupt in 2 weeks | Is microsoft gonna go bankrupt in 2 weeks? Idk | 2023-03-01T18:18:21 | 2023-03-16T16:59:00 | 2023-04-08T08:55:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LeEHxiv6RM4jW0hLuLzE | Will Joe Biden suffer an injury from a fall in the remainder of his first term? | Must be significant enough for the White House to make it public. | 2023-03-01T18:06:22 | 2025-01-20T12:00:00 | 2025-01-29T08:30:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1gEfHoHVOY7A2RF1KXY4 | Will Sudan's military hand power over to the winner of the 2023 elections? | YES if someone who is not part of the military has won elections and is PM by the end of the year.
Resolves YES even if those elections are to some extent not free and fair, unless the person taking power is part of the military. | 2023-03-01T15:54:32 | 2023-12-31T12:26:27 | 2023-12-31T12:26:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L5Zkrk20gVvwRmsAEyQs | Will Sundar Pichai be the CEO of Alphabet at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-01T13:34:34 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:32:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5I4jOuTnkiFzdJh5BkT5 | Will Meta be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? | Will resolve YES if Meta has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers. | 2023-03-01T13:17:40 | 2023-12-30T09:57:14 | 2023-12-30T09:57:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WpUrCDyyCK4xks6yphKA | Will TSMC be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? | Will resolve YES if TSMC has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers. | 2023-03-01T13:16:12 | 2023-12-30T11:45:46 | 2023-12-30T11:45:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6LMmIYMvBIyJ9sX5i5Oz | Will Tesla be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? | Will resolve YES if Tesla has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers. | 2023-03-01T13:14:48 | 2023-12-30T11:45:28 | 2023-12-30T11:45:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YRjy6Gf18oeEYcawcXV6 | Will Microsoft be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? | Will resolve YES if Microsoft has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers. | 2023-03-01T13:13:39 | 2023-12-30T09:58:21 | 2023-12-30T09:58:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Jn6HpQ3vY5BF976iYdhT | Will Nvidia be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? | Will resolve YES if Nvidia has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers.
Mar 1, 9:10pm: Will Amazon b... | 2023-03-01T13:09:58 | 2023-12-30T11:50:20 | 2023-12-30T11:50:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wsRpytl1BmL38exJid9b | Will Apple be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? | Will resolve YES if Apple has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers. | 2023-03-01T13:09:09 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:41:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Oq9OcpTbXzZTy7RvyHLQ | Will the market cap of crypto be higher at the end of 2023 than on March 1st? | Using coinmarketcap.com to determine total market cap. As of writing, total market cap is $1.08T | 2023-03-01T12:00:13 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:55:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sMChIohbl3ICnzauz6Vt | Will a Tesla Cybertruck be delivered to a retail customer in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-03-01T11:23:53 | 2023-12-07T06:07:04 | 2023-12-07T06:07:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PNkgcHYCGAOTXpuKWZZ3 | Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on March 4th? | Resolves YES if Destiny is live for longer than 6 hours on March 4th. A stream's hours that goes past midnight would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream. | 2023-03-01T10:59:49 | 2023-03-04T21:08:41 | 2023-03-04T21:08:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-d3iCiKGvQv1aE1NQdtLb | Will S&P 500 increase overall in March 2023? | Will the S&P 500 increase from open on 1 March 2023 (3963.34) to close on 31 March 2023 (4109.31)?
Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices | 2023-03-01T09:08:13 | 2023-04-02T11:23:24 | 2023-04-02T11:23:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WaoLV7rVLqOGttjF98PP | Will Zherka and Destiny have another falling out by the end of 2023? | They seem to be getting along well now, however given Zherkas past tendencies which he still seem to possess, there is a decent chance they might have a falling out in the near future.
An example could be that they have a fight and stop talking for a while.
If they have a heated argument but are still friends / stil... | 2023-03-01T08:59:42 | 2023-06-01T17:55:01 | 2023-06-01T17:55:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qDsPBJpLKfBCABzKpZ0z | Will more than one Guardian die in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3? | This question will resolve as YES if more than one of the following characters die in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and resolve as NO if none or only one of them die:
Peter Quill / Star-Lord
Gamora
Drax the Destroyer
Nebula
Mantis
Groot
Rocket
For the purposes of this question, Kraglin Obfonteri, Cosmo, Adam,... | 2023-03-01T08:03:25 | 2023-05-05T21:59:00 | 2023-05-06T08:31:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6ZrfIuL8WElUMKUjz8WW | Will "Everything Everywhere All At Once" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Everything Everywhere All at Once, from the directing duo known as the “Daniels” (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), has turned out to be one of 2022’s biggest success stories. It has netted a whopping 11 Oscar nominations but the genre and style doesn't make it a typical Oscar fare. Will it bring home the golden statu... | 2023-03-01T07:15:06 | 2023-03-18T14:01:23 | 2023-03-18T14:01:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cN4SFqQJdrg9mXPF4Vrl | Will Google announce any new AI system on Fool's Day 2023? | Presumably as a joke, but a real announcement would count as well. It has to be a system which is AI-based in a significant way, though there may be some subjectivity in the judgment.
Mar 1, 2:29pm: Will Google announce any new AI system on Fool's Day? → Will Google announce any new AI system on Fool's Day 2023? | 2023-03-01T05:28:23 | 2023-04-02T14:59:00 | 2023-04-03T09:24:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pz2mqcsrKnFeAF4Kbh7I | Will any Destiny video posted in March reach 500k views within the same month? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny/videos
VODs and shorts don't count.
Market closes on 3/31 11:59 PM PST. | 2023-03-01T05:12:36 | 2023-04-01T05:35:58 | 2023-04-01T05:35:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hbj2PvGLI5KjXcpjX6yT | Will Forsen beat the enderdragon by the end of this month? | Resolves yes if he beats the enderdragon (doesn't have to be a PB)
Resolves no if he doesn't by April 1st.
Resolves N/A if he quits playing | 2023-02-28T23:44:08 | 2023-03-18T13:44:11 | 2023-03-18T13:44:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q073FQgtEpau4LqLCbla | Will Bitcoin Hit $30,000 USD By End Of March 31st 2023 11:59pm EST? | https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/
Resolves Early If It Reaches $30,000 USD Before Market Close Date/Time.
DISCLOSURE: I reserve the right to eat up remaining "liquidity" if resolving early.
| 2023-02-28T19:22:57 | 2023-03-31T20:59:00 | 2023-03-31T21:36:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-D3pWgm0g3fjMcO9XjfiF | Will Brandon Sanderson announce a movie / tv show in 2023? | Resolves positively if there is an official Sanderson announcement of any planned movie / tv series based off of existing or new IP from him. | 2023-02-28T17:38:56 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:09:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-57jeEJGaYUiJaWp3B83T | Will Destiny create the first episode of a podcast before April 30th? | This market will resolve if Destiny creates a podcast where he is the host and will otherwise resolve as NO. | 2023-02-28T16:16:19 | 2023-04-30T11:33:22 | 2023-04-30T11:33:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3t1QqJwafjmuW43ZuhCM | March 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000? | If in March 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | 2023-02-28T15:47:08 | 2023-03-31T14:59:00 | 2023-04-01T03:29:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xcmFePnlacRsCJoY16Q4 | Will xQC finish in the top 50% of the squid game minecraft? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-28T11:23:32 | 2023-03-01T12:39:03 | 2023-03-01T12:39:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LoJZ66txJ7xXXKY0Edoj | Will the Elden Ring expansion, Shadow of the Erdtree reach a metascore of ≥90 | https://www.metacritic.com/game/elden-ring-shadow-of-the-erdtree/critic-reviews/?platform=pc
Resolves YES if Shadow of the Erdtree (PC) metascore reaches 90 or over any time between release and two weeks after. EDIT: Minimum of 10 critics | 2023-02-28T05:55:51 | 2024-06-20T15:01:55 | 2024-06-20T15:01:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AMGbDKvXDtov0ixDvPOd | Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', release before July 2023? | https://www.eldenring.jp/newsdetail/news_detail_230228_1.html
https://twitter.com/ELDENRING/status/1630478058103734274
As long as it is released in any territory in that timezone's June or earlier this will resolve to YES. | 2023-02-28T02:51:57 | 2023-07-01T06:55:01 | 2023-07-01T06:55:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4vBE3QGas3LyBiH1TOs8 | Will an architecture 100x faster than transformers be unveiled before June 1st, 2023? | I know, it's seems extremely unlikely. But there is a person on Twitter claiming this and their tweets don’t trigger my personal “this person is obviously a scammer” or “this person is obviously crazy” alarms (maybe I’m too naive).
Their claim is that there’s a stealth startup working on a new neural network architect... | 2023-02-28T02:10:05 | 2023-05-31T14:59:00 | 2023-06-01T01:55:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NUSIp4taDCh2AaBEVNwA | Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before April 1 2023? | SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement a... | 2023-02-28T01:26:27 | 2023-04-01T10:24:00 | 2023-04-02T03:12:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zvc1oqnQcmMuaS8XbiQr | Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', release in 2023? | https://www.eldenring.jp/newsdetail/news_detail_230228_1.html
https://twitter.com/ELDENRING/status/1630478058103734274 | 2023-02-28T00:53:25 | 2024-01-01T03:14:01 | 2024-01-01T03:14:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Nc8DWWUyYm6CQp6PvOEv | Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia at the end of 2024? | Currently (28.II.23), presidential elections in Russia are scheduled to be held on 17th of March, 2024.
This market will be resolved to:
YES -- if on 31st of December, 2024, 23:59 UTC Vladimir V. Putin is considered (by other russian officials) to be the President (more generally -- head of state) of Russian Federati... | 2023-02-28T00:53:01 | 2024-12-31T12:59:00 | 2024-12-31T14:25:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vUkaT0Ti9BlZzhEZGseG | Will Apple’s iPhone 15 Pro (or Pro Max) have more than 3 cameras on the back? | Resolves after the iPhone 15 announcement event, which is expected to take place around September or October 2023. Resolves based on the iPhone 15 "Pro" or whatever the most premium iPhone is called. | 2023-02-28T00:33:20 | 2023-09-18T00:12:05 | 2023-09-18T00:12:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uR3pKOLVIFYqau8uNog8 | Will Bitcoin's price be above $23000 on March 15st 2023 11:59PM? | Based on the price of BTC/USDT pair on Binance https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT?ref=CPA_00WUUQ29SL&theme=dark&type=spot | 2023-02-27T08:15:31 | 2023-03-15T22:59:00 | 2023-03-16T06:13:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IaY3zSvsmJto8ULg4mfy | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be employed at one of the top AI labs in 2023 or 2024? | Defining top AI labs : coupled tightly with the following markets + redwood research (he expressed desire to join them in the recent episode We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky) + conjecture.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/what-will-be-the-top3-ai-labs-in-20-6c64285972bc)(https://manifold.markets/e... | 2023-02-27T04:43:05 | 2024-12-31T22:29:00 | 2025-01-03T10:08:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gfWPDadYkIuFfqc8Irsi | Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2024? | Script, animation, music, character avatars, character voices, what else?- all of which are AI generated. Doesn't have to be a single multimodal model, the humans can do the stitching then together work.
Counts as series of there's atleast one coherent story line across multiple episodes. #episodes must be >=3. | 2023-02-27T04:21:22 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-02-04T08:16:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1MyciPQI6nNPmf4ZJR3C | Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2023? | Resolution Criteria
Script, animation, music, character avatars, character voices, what else?- all of which are AI generated. Doesn't have to be a single multimodal model, the humans can do the stitching then together work.
This question is open until 31/December/2023.
What does stitching mean?
If the human is s... | 2023-02-27T04:20:24 | 2024-01-01T03:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:27:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5ONN6EpiMBL69antFUh0 | Conditional on authorisation, will SpaceX attempt an orbital flight of Starship before May? | Almost orbital counts as orbital for the purposes of this question | 2023-02-27T02:06:15 | 2023-04-24T13:20:47 | 2023-04-24T13:20:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3u4Jg03IpcBN9VhphXm3 | Will Destiny's video "FD Signifier Runs From Trans Question After Asking Kidology A Trans Question | DESTINY REACTS" reach 80k views or more by 3/05 9 A.M. PST? | https://youtu.be/UbtuzO6rM8E
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the marke... | 2023-02-26T23:00:17 | 2023-03-04T12:12:59 | 2023-03-04T12:12:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Bxcgooyfcsie40aDkab4 | Will Elon Musk be the CEO of Tesla at the end of Q1 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-26T22:59:20 | 2023-03-31T03:59:00 | 2023-04-02T01:09:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RQZLJ4CTBpbkeLq0XYip | Will Destiny have a 15k viewer stream by the end of March? | This market will resolve to YES if Destiny's channel reaches 15k simultaneous viewers during one of his streams before Mar 31st 11:59PM GMT+1.
Otherwise, resolves to NO.
Similar Market @/Simon1551/will-destiny-have-a-10k-viewer-stre | 2023-02-26T22:35:57 | 2023-03-31T14:59:00 | 2023-04-01T19:02:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZXEQHcF7jt3XYkuieH1R | Will Vladimir Putin be alive on Jan 1st, 2024? | Resolves YES if Putin is alive at any time on Jan 1st, Moscow time.
Note: if I find that this market has been used as an assassination market, I reserve the right to resolve incorrectly. | 2023-02-26T22:32:08 | 2024-01-01T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T20:41:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-axvBavRdm738SDepmp2I | Will Israel still be ranked "Free" by Freedom House for 2023? | Score for 2022 was 77. Resolves based on https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores.
See this market for context:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Yoav/will-israel-pass-the-judicial-refor)Feb 27, 1:13am: Will Israel still be ranked "Free" by Freedom House for 2023? (Freedom score >70) → Will Israel still ... | 2023-02-26T21:48:35 | 2024-02-28T20:59:00 | 2024-02-28T22:27:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mFWo3GQPkC3RSTvuMf4A | Will Ron DeSantis win at least ten states in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least ten states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's ... | 2023-02-26T18:39:30 | 2024-05-22T05:40:10 | 2024-05-22T05:40:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-exgqFhONKrdLia4O9Lpm | Will the Supreme Court make a ruling about affirmative action on or before June 22nd, 2023? | The US Supreme Court is overwhelmingly expected to make a ruling against affirmative action in college admissions (see markets below). This market is about the timing of the ruling.
The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling sometime in May or June. Typically, the more controversial the case, the later the rulin... | 2023-02-26T15:38:24 | 2023-06-22T07:11:26 | 2023-06-22T07:11:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-plnU4iIaK02ToQCEXUxT | Will Elon Musk do something as a result of his AI angst by 2025? | Context: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1629901954234105857
Follow-up market: https://manifold.markets/Writer/if-elon-musk-does-something-as-a-re | 2023-02-26T10:32:55 | 2023-07-12T10:21:05 | 2023-07-12T10:21:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nAIXlz0biyl4k3hogAcp | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below:
In the context of Large Language Models (LLMs), prompts are inputs, to which the LLM responds. "Prompt-engineering" refers to the art of crafting inputs so as to increase the chance of getting a desired output.
Prompt-engi... | 2023-02-26T10:26:58 | 2024-01-31T23:59:00 | 2024-02-05T20:05:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LZgniNP69QzOvqDcOXg6 | Will China provide weapons to Russia in 2023? | Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that China has provided lethal aid (weapons, ammunition, etc) to Russia, in 2023. Otherwise NO.
Clarification: The provision of lethal aid must be reported to take place in 2023, and the reporting must be published by the end of 2023. If no such report is published by... | 2023-02-26T10:25:35 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-09T20:27:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9dG1dOOvfFZeFkhTCVT9 | Will Lewis Hamilton win a race in the 2023 F1 season? | Last year Lewis Hamilton failed to win a race in the 2022 formula 1 season. This was the first time in 15 years he failed to win a race. Will Mercedes peformance woes keep Hamilton off the top podium spot again this year?
Resolves yes if he wins a race, resolves no if he doesn't. | 2023-02-26T10:15:59 | 2023-11-26T12:19:50 | 2023-11-26T12:19:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kCVXa48Qx6QrS1xm5Oyh | Will Twitter move its headquarters away from California in 2023? | I may bet on this market. | 2023-02-26T08:14:29 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:52:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bWnEDQxGK8x5EWOR7XXD | Will Donald Trump win at least ten states in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in at least ten states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's ... | 2023-02-26T02:05:25 | 2024-03-12T17:19:13 | 2024-03-12T17:19:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NMniZbk7ZoK9MjXN6E1Y | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | This market resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below:
Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has started making noteworthy statements about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict:
China's foreign minister Wang Yi called Russia's security concerns "legitimate",... | 2023-02-26T02:00:37 | 2023-12-30T20:59:00 | 2024-01-04T21:12:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SQNKbxDyRBBdN3qw9CIe | Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident before 2024? | Resolves to yes if any public media reports a "terrorist attack" in an anti AI interest. Examples of resolution criteria:
It is reported that someone sends a bomb threat to an AI organization or an AI org. leader
It is reported that a terrorist attack was conducted against any AI organization against the idea of AI d... | 2023-02-26T00:45:07 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:35:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OVAxtPfHUYEqoUAPrQsH | Will Elon Musk announce the creation of a new AI company before 2024? | Resolves to true if any communication from Musk or confirmed public releases mentions Musk as a core member (shareholder, CEO, founder, board member, etc.) of a new AI organization or company. | 2023-02-26T00:38:55 | 2023-07-12T12:32:03 | 2023-07-12T12:32:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VcEHEnRArp7ARNeuqLjL | Will a post about rice reach 262,144 upvotes on Reddit? | Currently, there's a strange event going on in r/anarchychess. What started as a mostly normal post about crowd sourcing chess pieces turned into a literal fable about exponential growth.
Currently, the post If this post gets 131,072 upvotes, I'll post again with twice as many grains of rice has succeeded and they ar... | 2023-02-26T00:36:31 | 2023-08-26T06:59:00 | 2023-08-26T16:08:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RR2BXOrWCuVsSjdArgHt | If Trump is indicted, will his 2024 nomination chances predicted on Polymarket fall by at least 5%? | If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if the Polymarket prediction for him winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination falls by at least 5% from 1 week before the announcement of the indictment to 1 week after. Resolves NO if he is indicted and that does not happen. Resolves N/A if he is not in... | 2023-02-25T22:51:23 | 2023-04-07T05:11:05 | 2023-04-07T05:11:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3lfYDITplDp3S6wp9EMc | Will Destiny Be in a call with Adin Ross by March 7th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-25T22:26:56 | 2023-03-05T22:13:51 | 2023-03-05T22:13:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y5A38aHdUnsWa7BHSOlQ | Will Andrew Tate be convicted for human trafficking in Romania in 2023? | Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest.
https://manifold.markets/JamesBills/will-andrew-tate-be-convicted-for-h-fe811cfaec1e?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw
| 2023-02-25T17:03:27 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-10T16:08:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z5DMUjlV5xmfsMoK6War | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below:
Google Brain introduced the Transformer model in 2017 and advanced it further in 2018, which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called PaLM and Deep Mind ann... | 2023-02-25T16:35:05 | 2023-03-31T20:59:00 | 2023-04-03T12:07:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zq2uEizdHwNA6ujQSQOf | Will Russian troops be involved in military actions in Moldova before June 1, 2023? | Russian rhetoric has heated up over Moldova, and Russian warnings to Moldova parallel those Russia has made to other countries before invading. Will Russia risk military action in Ukraine's neighbor Moldova in the near future?
| 2023-02-25T11:29:06 | 2023-05-31T16:59:00 | 2023-05-31T18:06:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qWRgbF7kFTqMdmRM67On | Will Donald Trump win at least five states in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in at least five states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's... | 2023-02-25T07:54:57 | 2024-03-12T17:03:22 | 2024-03-12T17:03:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9suVwgtJPLevJt2lBi71 | Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy visit Xi Jinping in Beijing in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-25T07:44:08 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:05:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BlNh7vpCSwFy2UwYRkh6 | Will Xi Jinping visit Zelenskyy in Kyiv in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-25T07:22:38 | 2023-12-31T20:35:26 | 2023-12-31T20:35:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eGFsoYBc4pKvaJuLO6oD | Will Xi Jinping meet with Zelenskyy in person by the end of May 2023? | https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/zelenskyy-plans-meet-china-president-xi-jinping-ukraine-russia-3304786
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64762219.amp
For this to resolve yes, the meeting has to be non-virtual. It does not have to happen on Ukraine or Chinese soil. | 2023-02-25T07:07:52 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-05-31T21:11:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W3eGfEGPcguntOZmSStU | If Jeremy Corbyn is prevented from standing as a Labour candidate in the next UK general election, will he stand as a non-Labour candidate? | The current party leadership have said that Corbyn will not be allowed to stand as Labour's candidate. Corbyn says he intends to go for it.
Resolves YES if Jeremy Corbyn is a parliamentary candidate as an independent or for any party other than the Labour Party (including a new party).
Resolves NO if he chooses not ... | 2023-02-25T04:17:16 | 2024-06-05T07:14:30 | 2024-06-05T07:14:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gv2e5maXPAdlRNvSn4T5 | Will Destiny have 645k subscribers by the end of March? | Market will resolve at 11:59 March, 31 | 2023-02-24T20:00:09 | 2023-03-31T21:59:00 | 2023-04-01T08:17:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DDBzSBtumLtFBhoct2ef | Will Russia and China sign a new agreement of mutual cooperation during 2023? | Can be over any issue. | 2023-02-24T17:05:21 | 2023-09-04T01:06:28 | 2023-09-04T01:06:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MyrBBILmV9aYCloIJddK | Will the US Fed funds rate be 7 or higher at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-24T16:34:43 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:49:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YUOLO45W0O9dAELqnIIB | Will the german Bundestag pass a general speed limit in Germany before 2024? | Related to: https://manifold.markets/Jede/will-there-be-a-speed-limit-in-germ?r=SGFubmVzR2Vvcmc
Germany still has no speed limit. But polls show a 55-60% preference for a speed limit.
The german goverment coalition (social democrats, green and liberals) is divided on this topic. The green party argues that it's impos... | 2023-02-24T15:20:14 | 2023-12-30T15:59:00 | 2023-12-30T22:44:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r4ApeO0rScWn7FHAO4it | Will there be more than 4 major analogues of ChatGPT by the end of 2023? | Resolves as YES, if there’re more than 4 different companies providing general chat experience without major limitations with more than 10 million monthly active users in December 2023**. There should be a free tier allowing more than 10 chats, 50 questions a day, and available without the "waiting room" at least 16 ho... | 2023-02-24T13:21:07 | 2023-09-23T15:00:00 | 2023-12-22T14:36:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jfZq77V2Asj99xSHUYgG | Will technology related to ChatGPT significantly alter the role of Student Essays in US College Admissions by 2024? | This concerns the Fall 2024 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2023 for Early Decision, and January/February 2024 for Regular Decision.
Resolves as YES, if, for the Bachelor-level admissions for 2024, at least one of those things happens:
one of the Ivy League colleges omits the student essay from thei... | 2023-02-24T13:00:45 | 2023-12-21T17:11:50 | 2023-12-21T17:11:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5JyzBvet827GF7Hu9WRr | Will Jon Tester be reëlected? | To his Montana U.S. Senate seat. | 2023-02-24T12:50:34 | 2024-11-06T18:31:10 | 2024-11-06T18:31:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3BJnDP9wtlDv8VDww4Z9 | Will Mr Girl claim to have been made Suicidal by Destiny in his manifesto? | I will only count the title & body text of his official article. If there is dispute what the real manifesto/article is, I will go by whichever document takes focus on Destiny specifically in relation to sexual impropriety, or if there are multiple, then whichever document makes up the majority of the video MrGirl uplo... | 2023-02-23T23:43:53 | 2023-03-25T06:29:00 | 2023-03-25T22:11:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wm8cGSJQ4P4qZMV9IN7C | Will the film 'The Boy and the Heron' win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_Do_You_Live%3F_(film) | 2023-02-23T23:26:02 | 2024-03-10T20:57:36 | 2024-03-10T20:57:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PrDz812mnLss4229ntTt | Will 'The Boy and the Heron' be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_and_the_Heron
| 2023-02-23T23:22:04 | 2024-01-23T08:27:52 | 2024-01-23T08:27:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xAigTTDjFZrnGHgaidd3 | Will Joe Biden have a positive net approval in his first term? | Resolves YES if FiveThirtyEight's Biden approval rating shows Joe Biden with an approval rating higher than his disapproval rating any time between February 23, 2023 and January 20, 2025. Otherwise, resolves NO on January 20, 2025. Resolves N/A if FiveThirtyEight's Biden approval rating tracker is unavailable and marke... | 2023-02-23T21:23:58 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-01-23T22:01:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IHzI9bSdQF8VoyVzwTK8 | Will Sam Bankman Fried be dead before he goes to trial? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-23T18:35:06 | 2023-10-03T12:55:34 | 2023-10-03T12:55:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hLJ5q3sT7T4hYTXrH4vM | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on April 1? | Same as this market, but with a longer timeline:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottLawrence/will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-on-march) | 2023-02-23T14:13:55 | 2023-04-01T22:59:00 | 2023-04-02T09:51:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JC3hvPl2tyAstFXbCVxG | Will BBBY have filed for bankruptcy before June 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-23T08:46:15 | 2023-06-19T16:59:00 | 2023-06-22T13:05:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EXIArXk4jkSQbUbK5Q6X | Will Lance Stroll out qualify Fernando Alonso at any point in the 2023 F1 season? | This applies only to the traditional 3 stage qualifying on Saturdays (or Fridays during a sprint weekend) and is based off the final classification at the end of all 3 stages. In order for a session to count, both drivers must take part and set a time in the session. This market will be resolved either at the end of th... | 2023-02-23T04:03:14 | 2023-07-31T12:27:15 | 2023-07-31T12:27:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-d7a6rDM50YFtCLHNSlGz | Will YourRageGaming win "Best Just Chatting Streamer" at the Streamer Awards | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-22T20:37:07 | 2023-07-17T09:32:42 | 2023-07-17T09:32:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BFyHNBLWv5H8UiH34Zi3 | Will Ron DeSantis win at least five states in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least five states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's... | 2023-02-22T16:59:41 | 2024-05-22T05:39:20 | 2024-05-22T05:39:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3nQAxRqwYqdmTZrIFnh3 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win at least one state in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Vivek Ramaswamy wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC'... | 2023-02-22T16:56:35 | 2024-06-14T00:03:37 | 2024-06-14T00:03:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d16o1gcL4ufvy5hWyj8a | Will Destiny reach 690k subscribers by April 20th, 2023? | Resolves yes if Destiny's main channel gets to 690k subscribers before April 20th, 2023 at 11:59pm EST.
Resolves no if yes is not met | 2023-02-22T11:40:30 | 2023-04-20T20:59:00 | 2023-04-21T07:04:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rOtm2dBLmVkJ5Gka8H8y | Will Destiny play a game with Lilypichu? | Resolves YES if Destiny plays a "game" with Lilypichu by July. A "game" is qualified by a mulitplayer game that is actively livestreamed. If a situation where the "game" they play is argueably a game but controversal, I will have the last say where I gather the popular opinion and what I seem fit. An example of a game ... | 2023-02-22T06:40:24 | 2023-06-30T21:59:00 | 2023-07-02T20:07:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7YR3RoukybG0YTh40sVm | Will an AI account on Instagram have more than 1M followers by the end of 2023? | https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/02/viral-instagram-photographer-has-a-confession-his-photos-are-ai-generated/
The above story is about an Instagram account that has 12k followers, and uses AI to generate image.
Human touch-ups are OK.
The content must be primarily AI generated (only 2 of this art... | 2023-02-22T06:29:33 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-11T00:17:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ms8C1kT4rav8kwvBi1CA | Will Georgia GOP State legislators attempt to remove Fani Willis as Fulton County DA before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-22T02:20:32 | 2023-12-31T14:16:08 | 2023-12-31T14:16:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BTIEukA1Eng1JDhjk9eY | Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023? | Language models have shown remarkable progress in generating human-like text. One of the most advanced language models is ChatGPT, based on deep learning techniques and pre-trained on vast amounts of text data. This technology has been used to generate text for various applications, including chatbots and language tran... | 2023-02-22T00:38:50 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:55:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wl64oIw9XypJNrDFeFf1 | Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2024 | Language models have shown remarkable progress in generating human-like text. One of the most advanced language models is ChatGPT, based on deep learning techniques and pre-trained on vast amounts of text data. This technology has been used to generate text for various applications, including chatbots and language tran... | 2023-02-22T00:27:58 | 2024-12-31T18:59:00 | 2025-01-20T12:00:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q6DLW8JovFCmTeLgHzij | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2023? | Eliezer Yudowsky is a renowned AI Alignment researcher. Recently on sabatical from the the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) after apparently losing hope in the fight to prevent missaligned AI from being developed.
He recently appeared on the Bankless Podcast indicating that he had given up but was puttin... | 2023-02-21T23:14:21 | 2023-03-30T14:13:23 | 2023-03-30T14:13:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u64Lb17rytIQahcowyeJ | Will the full release of Bing Chat occur before the end of May | If a GPT-based chat feature is integrated into the Bing search engine for all users by the end of may, resolves to yes. | 2023-02-21T21:05:11 | 2023-05-31T21:00:00 | 2023-06-07T06:14:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-88Pqe1prvVLgAZI8tnV6 | Will US home prices decline by over 20% from all time highs in 2023? | As measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
All time high for these purposes is the June '22 reading of 308.365. If at any time a 2023 reading returns at 246.692 or lower, this question resolves "Yes". Otherwise "No".
If no reading has resulted ... | 2023-02-21T20:48:14 | 2024-03-29T21:59:00 | 2024-03-30T05:01:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-niLj0VXQI7SeBQK1Rkjp | Will Bing Chat no longer be available on Bing Search at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-21T19:51:55 | 2023-12-31T20:20:24 | 2023-12-31T20:20:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-q2lqQ09dokJF7HSLHM7P | Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi without a steering wheel by end of 2024? | Must be ordered from my phone. I may bet on this market.
2023-08-13 Edit: I live in SF. I do not plan to move in this time period. I am approved for Waymo and Cruise vehicles. | 2023-02-21T16:39:51 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T15:03:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yHRqPL85UkhA6vFy9Bjv | Will there be more Meta layoffs by 2023-04-30? | This market resolves positively if Meta leadership announces layoffs of >=5% of workforce. Layoffs must be announced, but do not need to be carried out within this timeframe. If more than one layoff is announced such that each layoff is less than 5%, but together they comprise more than 5%, this DOES fulfill the condit... | 2023-02-21T16:13:35 | 2023-04-30T23:59:00 | 2023-05-05T12:52:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AysA7xIQWmOhbGiUs0et | Will Biden visit Taiwan in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-21T15:29:48 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:32:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ayFOpfyFEGNGnnHN516b | Will Elon Musk talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI alignment in 2023? | Market resolves if they talk about it in person or through the call (not just exchange a few tweets)
Feb 22, 12:16pm: Will Elon Mask talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI alignment in 2023? → Will Elon Musk talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI alignment in 2023? | 2023-02-21T12:43:24 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T02:51:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tPc6kRmjXfIZLlwJ5D8r | Now that Joe Biden has begun running for the 2024 Democratic Nomination, will he be the nominee? | Resolves N/A if he announces that he's not running (UPDATE: since he has announced that he is running this market will not resolve N/A based on this clause). Otherwise resolves based on who is nominated at the 2024 DNC.
Technically the following two markets should tell us the implied odds for this market:
[markets](a... | 2023-02-21T12:26:17 | 2024-08-20T17:37:04 | 2024-08-20T17:37:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uRSmOqVEiu1It3obI61i | Will AI safety (broadly defined) be a partisan issue in US politics before 2024? | Resolves to "yes" if there are at least 3 prominent AI safety bills (subjective, up to me, but more likely to qualify with coverage from major news outlets) that do not pass in Congress (halt in the House of Representatives or the Senate) after votes in which 90% or more of House / Senate Democrats vote for one side an... | 2023-02-21T11:41:20 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-01T19:09:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zif7pFT4IR8WdgoiTdWk | Will the abortion drug "mifepristone" be banned nationwide before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-21T09:45:32 | 2023-12-31T20:31:27 | 2023-12-31T20:31:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RRmJn2XPamAD3ANqtjRf | [READ DESCRIPTION] Will there be a Primary debate for President by September? | Note (7/3/2023): Many reports are saying Donald Trump plans to skip the first Republican presidential debate, if this happens the August debate does not count for this market as long as he remains top 2 in polling.
Original Market Rules / Description---
Some context:
For the 2016 cycle, the first primary debate wa... | 2023-02-21T03:17:18 | 2023-08-31T21:00:00 | 2023-08-31T21:15:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.