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mani-EVCAP9bd3l7WE3wgM8hF
Will Microsoft go bankrupt in 2 weeks
Is microsoft gonna go bankrupt in 2 weeks? Idk
2023-03-01T18:18:21
2023-03-16T16:59:00
2023-04-08T08:55:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LeEHxiv6RM4jW0hLuLzE
Will Joe Biden suffer an injury from a fall in the remainder of his first term?
Must be significant enough for the White House to make it public.
2023-03-01T18:06:22
2025-01-20T12:00:00
2025-01-29T08:30:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1gEfHoHVOY7A2RF1KXY4
Will Sudan's military hand power over to the winner of the 2023 elections?
YES if someone who is not part of the military has won elections and is PM by the end of the year. Resolves YES even if those elections are to some extent not free and fair, unless the person taking power is part of the military.
2023-03-01T15:54:32
2023-12-31T12:26:27
2023-12-31T12:26:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-L5Zkrk20gVvwRmsAEyQs
Will Sundar Pichai be the CEO of Alphabet at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-01T13:34:34
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T12:32:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5I4jOuTnkiFzdJh5BkT5
Will Meta be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
Will resolve YES if Meta has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers.
2023-03-01T13:17:40
2023-12-30T09:57:14
2023-12-30T09:57:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WpUrCDyyCK4xks6yphKA
Will TSMC be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
Will resolve YES if TSMC has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers.
2023-03-01T13:16:12
2023-12-30T11:45:46
2023-12-30T11:45:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6LMmIYMvBIyJ9sX5i5Oz
Will Tesla be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
Will resolve YES if Tesla has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers.
2023-03-01T13:14:48
2023-12-30T11:45:28
2023-12-30T11:45:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YRjy6Gf18oeEYcawcXV6
Will Microsoft be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
Will resolve YES if Microsoft has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers.
2023-03-01T13:13:39
2023-12-30T09:58:21
2023-12-30T09:58:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Jn6HpQ3vY5BF976iYdhT
Will Nvidia be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
Will resolve YES if Nvidia has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers. Mar 1, 9:10pm: Will Amazon be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? → Will Nvidia be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
2023-03-01T13:09:58
2023-12-30T11:50:20
2023-12-30T11:50:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wsRpytl1BmL38exJid9b
Will Apple be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
Will resolve YES if Apple has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers.
2023-03-01T13:09:09
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T12:41:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Oq9OcpTbXzZTy7RvyHLQ
Will the market cap of crypto be higher at the end of 2023 than on March 1st?
Using coinmarketcap.com to determine total market cap. As of writing, total market cap is $1.08T
2023-03-01T12:00:13
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T23:55:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sMChIohbl3ICnzauz6Vt
Will a Tesla Cybertruck be delivered to a retail customer in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-03-01T11:23:53
2023-12-07T06:07:04
2023-12-07T06:07:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PNkgcHYCGAOTXpuKWZZ3
Will Destiny stream for more than 6 hours on March 4th?
Resolves YES if Destiny is live for longer than 6 hours on March 4th. A stream's hours that goes past midnight would count as long as it was ONE (1) continuous stream.
2023-03-01T10:59:49
2023-03-04T21:08:41
2023-03-04T21:08:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-d3iCiKGvQv1aE1NQdtLb
Will S&P 500 increase overall in March 2023?
Will the S&P 500 increase from open on 1 March 2023 (3963.34) to close on 31 March 2023 (4109.31)? Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
2023-03-01T09:08:13
2023-04-02T11:23:24
2023-04-02T11:23:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WaoLV7rVLqOGttjF98PP
Will Zherka and Destiny have another falling out by the end of 2023?
They seem to be getting along well now, however given Zherkas past tendencies which he still seem to possess, there is a decent chance they might have a falling out in the near future. An example could be that they have a fight and stop talking for a while. If they have a heated argument but are still friends / still talk it won't be enough.
2023-03-01T08:59:42
2023-06-01T17:55:01
2023-06-01T17:55:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qDsPBJpLKfBCABzKpZ0z
Will more than one Guardian die in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3?
This question will resolve as YES if more than one of the following characters die in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and resolve as NO if none or only one of them die: Peter Quill / Star-Lord Gamora Drax the Destroyer Nebula Mantis Groot Rocket For the purposes of this question, Kraglin Obfonteri, Cosmo, Adam, and other characters will not be counted, regardless of whether they die. If the film involves variants of characters, such that one variant of one of these characters dies but another does not, I will use my own judgement, but try to resolve this based on what happens to the main timeline version (or, in Gamora's case, the variant introduced in Avengers: Endgame.) If a character dies, but is brought back to life by the end of the movie, I will not consider this as that character having died. For the purposes of this question, situations such as what happened in the first Guardians of the Galaxy, with Groot dying and leaving behind a living sapling, will also not be counted as that character dying. If it is unclear whether a character has died, and this affects whether the question would resolve YES or NO, I will use my own judgement as to whether the character is alive, and may resolve N/A if it is sufficiently ambiguous.
2023-03-01T08:03:25
2023-05-05T21:59:00
2023-05-06T08:31:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6ZrfIuL8WElUMKUjz8WW
Will "Everything Everywhere All At Once" win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Everything Everywhere All at Once, from the directing duo known as the “Daniels” (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), has turned out to be one of 2022’s biggest success stories. It has netted a whopping 11 Oscar nominations but the genre and style doesn't make it a typical Oscar fare. Will it bring home the golden statue?
2023-03-01T07:15:06
2023-03-18T14:01:23
2023-03-18T14:01:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cN4SFqQJdrg9mXPF4Vrl
Will Google announce any new AI system on Fool's Day 2023?
Presumably as a joke, but a real announcement would count as well. It has to be a system which is AI-based in a significant way, though there may be some subjectivity in the judgment. Mar 1, 2:29pm: Will Google announce any new AI system on Fool's Day? → Will Google announce any new AI system on Fool's Day 2023?
2023-03-01T05:28:23
2023-04-02T14:59:00
2023-04-03T09:24:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Pz2mqcsrKnFeAF4Kbh7I
Will any Destiny video posted in March reach 500k views within the same month?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny/videos VODs and shorts don't count. Market closes on 3/31 11:59 PM PST.
2023-03-01T05:12:36
2023-04-01T05:35:58
2023-04-01T05:35:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Hbj2PvGLI5KjXcpjX6yT
Will Forsen beat the enderdragon by the end of this month?
Resolves yes if he beats the enderdragon (doesn't have to be a PB) Resolves no if he doesn't by April 1st. Resolves N/A if he quits playing
2023-02-28T23:44:08
2023-03-18T13:44:11
2023-03-18T13:44:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Q073FQgtEpau4LqLCbla
Will Bitcoin Hit $30,000 USD By End Of March 31st 2023 11:59pm EST?
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/ Resolves Early If It Reaches $30,000 USD Before Market Close Date/Time. DISCLOSURE: I reserve the right to eat up remaining "liquidity" if resolving early.
2023-02-28T19:22:57
2023-03-31T20:59:00
2023-03-31T21:36:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-D3pWgm0g3fjMcO9XjfiF
Will Brandon Sanderson announce a movie / tv show in 2023?
Resolves positively if there is an official Sanderson announcement of any planned movie / tv series based off of existing or new IP from him.
2023-02-28T17:38:56
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:09:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-57jeEJGaYUiJaWp3B83T
Will Destiny create the first episode of a podcast before April 30th?
This market will resolve if Destiny creates a podcast where he is the host and will otherwise resolve as NO.
2023-02-28T16:16:19
2023-04-30T11:33:22
2023-04-30T11:33:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3t1QqJwafjmuW43ZuhCM
March 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000?
If in March 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES [image]--- ➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
2023-02-28T15:47:08
2023-03-31T14:59:00
2023-04-01T03:29:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xcmFePnlacRsCJoY16Q4
Will xQC finish in the top 50% of the squid game minecraft?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-28T11:23:32
2023-03-01T12:39:03
2023-03-01T12:39:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LoJZ66txJ7xXXKY0Edoj
Will the Elden Ring expansion, Shadow of the Erdtree reach a metascore of ≥90
https://www.metacritic.com/game/elden-ring-shadow-of-the-erdtree/critic-reviews/?platform=pc Resolves YES if Shadow of the Erdtree (PC) metascore reaches 90 or over any time between release and two weeks after. EDIT: Minimum of 10 critics
2023-02-28T05:55:51
2024-06-20T15:01:55
2024-06-20T15:01:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-AMGbDKvXDtov0ixDvPOd
Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', release before July 2023?
https://www.eldenring.jp/newsdetail/news_detail_230228_1.html https://twitter.com/ELDENRING/status/1630478058103734274 As long as it is released in any territory in that timezone's June or earlier this will resolve to YES.
2023-02-28T02:51:57
2023-07-01T06:55:01
2023-07-01T06:55:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4vBE3QGas3LyBiH1TOs8
Will an architecture 100x faster than transformers be unveiled before June 1st, 2023?
I know, it's seems extremely unlikely. But there is a person on Twitter claiming this and their tweets don’t trigger my personal “this person is obviously a scammer” or “this person is obviously crazy” alarms (maybe I’m too naive). Their claim is that there’s a stealth startup working on a new neural network architecture 100x-1000x better than transformers in terms of speed on existing hardware (by speed I mean the amount of tokens generated per second). They will give public access to it in the same way OpenAI did with ChatGPT, and more details will be available in about two months. There are other claims as well, but let’s focus on these. [image][image]Sources: https://twitter.com/kenshinsamurai9/status/1628056046013915137 https://twitter.com/kenshinsamurai9/status/1628084013557592094 So this market will resolve YES if before June 1st, 2023 this startup goes out of stealth mode: some kind of public announcement is made and 1) it mentions at least 100x improvement in speed in comparison to transformers and 2) they position themselves as competitors to GPT-4 or any other state-of-the-art LLM at the time of announcement, and that claim should at least be somewhat reasonable based on the evidence provided (I'll be the judge on this). I’d make the market more technical, but I don’t think I will be able to verify it, because I don’t expect that we’ll get any kind of access to such a model besides chat interface any time soon. I'd bet YES just because the possibility is too exciting. But my confidence level is low of course.
2023-02-28T02:10:05
2023-05-31T14:59:00
2023-06-01T01:55:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NUSIp4taDCh2AaBEVNwA
Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before April 1 2023?
SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com). This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement and The Economist.
2023-02-28T01:26:27
2023-04-01T10:24:00
2023-04-02T03:12:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zvc1oqnQcmMuaS8XbiQr
Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', release in 2023?
https://www.eldenring.jp/newsdetail/news_detail_230228_1.html https://twitter.com/ELDENRING/status/1630478058103734274
2023-02-28T00:53:25
2024-01-01T03:14:01
2024-01-01T03:14:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Nc8DWWUyYm6CQp6PvOEv
Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia at the end of 2024?
Currently (28.II.23), presidential elections in Russia are scheduled to be held on 17th of March, 2024. This market will be resolved to: YES -- if on 31st of December, 2024, 23:59 UTC Vladimir V. Putin is considered (by other russian officials) to be the President (more generally -- head of state) of Russian Federation. NO -- the conditions in YES are met for a person other than Vladimir V. Putin. N/A -- any other outcome
2023-02-28T00:53:01
2024-12-31T12:59:00
2024-12-31T14:25:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vUkaT0Ti9BlZzhEZGseG
Will Apple’s iPhone 15 Pro (or Pro Max) have more than 3 cameras on the back?
Resolves after the iPhone 15 announcement event, which is expected to take place around September or October 2023. Resolves based on the iPhone 15 "Pro" or whatever the most premium iPhone is called.
2023-02-28T00:33:20
2023-09-18T00:12:05
2023-09-18T00:12:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uR3pKOLVIFYqau8uNog8
Will Bitcoin's price be above $23000 on March 15st 2023 11:59PM?
Based on the price of BTC/USDT pair on Binance https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT?ref=CPA_00WUUQ29SL&theme=dark&type=spot
2023-02-27T08:15:31
2023-03-15T22:59:00
2023-03-16T06:13:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IaY3zSvsmJto8ULg4mfy
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be employed at one of the top AI labs in 2023 or 2024?
Defining top AI labs : coupled tightly with the following markets + redwood research (he expressed desire to join them in the recent episode We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky) + conjecture. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/what-will-be-the-top3-ai-labs-in-20-6c64285972bc)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/what-will-be-the-top3-ai-labs-in-20-ff578e9dd7a2)An advisory/consultant role counts.
2023-02-27T04:43:05
2024-12-31T22:29:00
2025-01-03T10:08:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gfWPDadYkIuFfqc8Irsi
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2024?
Script, animation, music, character avatars, character voices, what else?- all of which are AI generated. Doesn't have to be a single multimodal model, the humans can do the stitching then together work. Counts as series of there's atleast one coherent story line across multiple episodes. #episodes must be >=3.
2023-02-27T04:21:22
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-02-04T08:16:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1MyciPQI6nNPmf4ZJR3C
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2023?
Resolution Criteria Script, animation, music, character avatars, character voices, what else?- all of which are AI generated. Doesn't have to be a single multimodal model, the humans can do the stitching then together work. This question is open until 31/December/2023. What does stitching mean? If the human is stitching together scenes according to the AI-generated script, then it is okay, where each scene is produced independently, including music, avatars, video, etc. If the human is taking bits of random scenes and stitching them together based on their own best judgement, then no. As it will be not easy to always determine what's the case, I can shoot an email to the creator and see what they have to say. The role of human basically reduced to ~ an automation agent. Edit: Has to be non-crappy Series and episode Length Counts as series of there's atleast one coherent story line across multiple episodes. number of episodes must be >=3. As far as I know, most episodes in anime are ~20 to 24 (or more) mins long, so i'll take that as a general guideline for minimum length. The publisher doesn't have to be a major studio but the won't qualify for this market if it's partial snippets and released without a coherent storyline. Should be a series not a single episode. Trading Please try to trade on the spirit of the market rather than exploiting loopholes in my language used for description. Always free to ask for clarification in the comments when in doubt.
2023-02-27T04:20:24
2024-01-01T03:59:00
2024-01-01T07:27:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5ONN6EpiMBL69antFUh0
Conditional on authorisation, will SpaceX attempt an orbital flight of Starship before May?
Almost orbital counts as orbital for the purposes of this question
2023-02-27T02:06:15
2023-04-24T13:20:47
2023-04-24T13:20:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3u4Jg03IpcBN9VhphXm3
Will Destiny's video "FD Signifier Runs From Trans Question After Asking Kidology A Trans Question | DESTINY REACTS" reach 80k views or more by 3/05 9 A.M. PST?
https://youtu.be/UbtuzO6rM8E If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved. If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons.
2023-02-26T23:00:17
2023-03-04T12:12:59
2023-03-04T12:12:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Bxcgooyfcsie40aDkab4
Will Elon Musk be the CEO of Tesla at the end of Q1 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-26T22:59:20
2023-03-31T03:59:00
2023-04-02T01:09:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RQZLJ4CTBpbkeLq0XYip
Will Destiny have a 15k viewer stream by the end of March?
This market will resolve to YES if Destiny's channel reaches 15k simultaneous viewers during one of his streams before Mar 31st 11:59PM GMT+1. Otherwise, resolves to NO. Similar Market @/Simon1551/will-destiny-have-a-10k-viewer-stre
2023-02-26T22:35:57
2023-03-31T14:59:00
2023-04-01T19:02:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZXEQHcF7jt3XYkuieH1R
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on Jan 1st, 2024?
Resolves YES if Putin is alive at any time on Jan 1st, Moscow time. Note: if I find that this market has been used as an assassination market, I reserve the right to resolve incorrectly.
2023-02-26T22:32:08
2024-01-01T15:59:00
2024-01-01T20:41:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-axvBavRdm738SDepmp2I
Will Israel still be ranked "Free" by Freedom House for 2023?
Score for 2022 was 77. Resolves based on https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores. See this market for context: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Yoav/will-israel-pass-the-judicial-refor)Feb 27, 1:13am: Will Israel still be ranked "Free" by Freedom House for 2023? (Freedom score >70) → Will Israel still be ranked "Free" by Freedom House for the year 2023? (Freedom score >70) Mar 2, 1:57am: Will Israel still be ranked "Free" by Freedom House for the year 2023? (Freedom score >70) → Will Israel still be ranked "Free" by Freedom House for 2023?
2023-02-26T21:48:35
2024-02-28T20:59:00
2024-02-28T22:27:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mFWo3GQPkC3RSTvuMf4A
Will Ron DeSantis win at least ten states in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least ten states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements. Other markets with a similar format: https://manifold.markets/group/can-candidate-win-states
2023-02-26T18:39:30
2024-05-22T05:40:10
2024-05-22T05:40:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-exgqFhONKrdLia4O9Lpm
Will the Supreme Court make a ruling about affirmative action on or before June 22nd, 2023?
The US Supreme Court is overwhelmingly expected to make a ruling against affirmative action in college admissions (see markets below). This market is about the timing of the ruling. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling sometime in May or June. Typically, the more controversial the case, the later the ruling is issued. You can review all the cases under consideration this cycle here. This market will be resolved YES if the Supreme Court issues a ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina and Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College (21-707 and 20-1199) by June 22nd, 11:59pm Eastern. Otherwise, it will resolve NO. [markets]
2023-02-26T15:38:24
2023-06-22T07:11:26
2023-06-22T07:11:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-plnU4iIaK02ToQCEXUxT
Will Elon Musk do something as a result of his AI angst by 2025?
Context: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1629901954234105857 Follow-up market: https://manifold.markets/Writer/if-elon-musk-does-something-as-a-re
2023-02-26T10:32:55
2023-07-12T10:21:05
2023-07-12T10:21:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nAIXlz0biyl4k3hogAcp
Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?
Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below: In the context of Large Language Models (LLMs), prompts are inputs, to which the LLM responds. "Prompt-engineering" refers to the art of crafting inputs so as to increase the chance of getting a desired output. Prompt-engineering has been used to get LLMs to do many things, e.g. write code, circumvent LLM safety mechanisms, and achieve higher performance on mathematics and science problems (e.g. chain-of-thought prompting) An online course on Prompt Engineering already seems to exist, but it's unclear how substantial it is and it does not seem to be affiliated with any university. Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? This resolves as Yes if an accredited US college or university completes the instruction of such a course for credit before January 1, 2024. Resolution will be determined according to credible sources available before February 1, 2024. Fine print: A course on AI-assisted writing would be considered distinct, and would not qualify. The instruction period (i.e. the time interval between the first and last lecture) must be longer than 60 days. Prompt engineering must be the main focus of the course according to the university's course listing and/or the course website.
2023-02-26T10:26:58
2024-01-31T23:59:00
2024-02-05T20:05:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LZgniNP69QzOvqDcOXg6
Will China provide weapons to Russia in 2023?
Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that China has provided lethal aid (weapons, ammunition, etc) to Russia, in 2023. Otherwise NO. Clarification: The provision of lethal aid must be reported to take place in 2023, and the reporting must be published by the end of 2023. If no such report is published by the end of 2023, resolves NO. Context: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/02/23/chinas-calculation-on-supplying-russia-with-weapons-00084128
2023-02-26T10:25:35
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-09T20:27:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9dG1dOOvfFZeFkhTCVT9
Will Lewis Hamilton win a race in the 2023 F1 season?
Last year Lewis Hamilton failed to win a race in the 2022 formula 1 season. This was the first time in 15 years he failed to win a race. Will Mercedes peformance woes keep Hamilton off the top podium spot again this year? Resolves yes if he wins a race, resolves no if he doesn't.
2023-02-26T10:15:59
2023-11-26T12:19:50
2023-11-26T12:19:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kCVXa48Qx6QrS1xm5Oyh
Will Twitter move its headquarters away from California in 2023?
I may bet on this market.
2023-02-26T08:14:29
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2023-12-31T20:52:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bWnEDQxGK8x5EWOR7XXD
Will Donald Trump win at least ten states in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in at least ten states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-02-26T02:05:25
2024-03-12T17:19:13
2024-03-12T17:19:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NMniZbk7ZoK9MjXN6E1Y
Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?
This market resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below: Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has started making noteworthy statements about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: China's foreign minister Wang Yi called Russia's security concerns "legitimate", saying they should be "taken seriously and addressed." Chinese ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun went further and said outright that China disagreed with US claims that Russia was threatening international peace. He also criticised the US for convening a meeting of the UN Security Council, likening it to "megaphone diplomacy" that was "not conducive" for negotiations. According to the Economist, China’s relations with Russia are the strongest they have been for 70 years. Thus we ask: Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? This question will resolve positively if between March 1, 2022 and December 31, 2023, representatives of China announce or acknowledge the Chinese involvement in the conflict. By the Chinese involvement we mean a situation where China supports one of the parties in the conflict, either by military presence on Ukrainian territory or by military material aid of any value. Purely commercial transactions (including weapon sales) between Chinese suppliers (be they private or state-owned companies) and one side of the conflict will be counted only if they are openly suported, endorsed, organized or subsidized by the Chinese government. Dual-use material aid will be counted only if provided with the stated purpose of helping one side's efforts in the conflict (as opposed to e.g. civilan relief).
2023-02-26T02:00:37
2023-12-30T20:59:00
2024-01-04T21:12:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SQNKbxDyRBBdN3qw9CIe
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident before 2024?
Resolves to yes if any public media reports a "terrorist attack" in an anti AI interest. Examples of resolution criteria: It is reported that someone sends a bomb threat to an AI organization or an AI org. leader It is reported that a terrorist attack was conducted against any AI organization against the idea of AI development See the related market: Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
2023-02-26T00:45:07
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T06:35:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OVAxtPfHUYEqoUAPrQsH
Will Elon Musk announce the creation of a new AI company before 2024?
Resolves to true if any communication from Musk or confirmed public releases mentions Musk as a core member (shareholder, CEO, founder, board member, etc.) of a new AI organization or company.
2023-02-26T00:38:55
2023-07-12T12:32:03
2023-07-12T12:32:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VcEHEnRArp7ARNeuqLjL
Will a post about rice reach 262,144 upvotes on Reddit?
Currently, there's a strange event going on in r/anarchychess. What started as a mostly normal post about crowd sourcing chess pieces turned into a literal fable about exponential growth. Currently, the post If this post gets 131,072 upvotes, I'll post again with twice as many grains of rice has succeeded and they are onto the 262,144 upvotes version. This market will resolve YES if that post succeeds in its goal, or NO if it is doesn't make it within 6 months.
2023-02-26T00:36:31
2023-08-26T06:59:00
2023-08-26T16:08:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RR2BXOrWCuVsSjdArgHt
If Trump is indicted, will his 2024 nomination chances predicted on Polymarket fall by at least 5%?
If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if the Polymarket prediction for him winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination falls by at least 5% from 1 week before the announcement of the indictment to 1 week after. Resolves NO if he is indicted and that does not happen. Resolves N/A if he is not indicted on criminal charges before the nomination. The Polymarket prediction will be defined as the mid-market price (average of bid and ask) for Trump on https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination. If the spread is larger than 5 cents, it will instead be defined as the AMM price, clipped to the range from bid to ask (i.e. defined as the AMM price if it is between the bid and ask prices; otherwise as the bid price if the AMM price is less than the bid, otherwise as the ask price if the AMM price is greater than the ask.) Any criminal indictment in any jurisdication will count.
2023-02-25T22:51:23
2023-04-07T05:11:05
2023-04-07T05:11:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3lfYDITplDp3S6wp9EMc
Will Destiny Be in a call with Adin Ross by March 7th?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-25T22:26:56
2023-03-05T22:13:51
2023-03-05T22:13:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-y5A38aHdUnsWa7BHSOlQ
Will Andrew Tate be convicted for human trafficking in Romania in 2023?
Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest. https://manifold.markets/JamesBills/will-andrew-tate-be-convicted-for-h-fe811cfaec1e?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw
2023-02-25T17:03:27
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-10T16:08:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z5DMUjlV5xmfsMoK6War
Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?
Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below: Google Brain introduced the Transformer model in 2017 and advanced it further in 2018, which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called PaLM and Deep Mind announced Gopher. None of these models have been publicly available, however, unlike OpenAI's ChatGPT (public, free, but no API) or OpenAI's GPT-3 (public, paid, has an API). Google has shared an "AI Test Kitchen" in 2022 with an LLM called LaMDA, but available only to limited partners. On Dec 21, 2022, Business Insider reported Google declared a "Code Red" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT. This question resolves as Yes if Google or DeepMind provide a public API (free or paid) for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as No. Fine print Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from credible sources, but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count. "Public" here means not a private beta - while there may be a waitlist or rate limiting, members of the public must be able to sign up and use it.
2023-02-25T16:35:05
2023-03-31T20:59:00
2023-04-03T12:07:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zq2uEizdHwNA6ujQSQOf
Will Russian troops be involved in military actions in Moldova before June 1, 2023?
Russian rhetoric has heated up over Moldova, and Russian warnings to Moldova parallel those Russia has made to other countries before invading. Will Russia risk military action in Ukraine's neighbor Moldova in the near future?
2023-02-25T11:29:06
2023-05-31T16:59:00
2023-05-31T18:06:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qWRgbF7kFTqMdmRM67On
Will Donald Trump win at least five states in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in at least five states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-02-25T07:54:57
2024-03-12T17:03:22
2024-03-12T17:03:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9suVwgtJPLevJt2lBi71
Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy visit Xi Jinping in Beijing in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-25T07:44:08
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:05:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BlNh7vpCSwFy2UwYRkh6
Will Xi Jinping visit Zelenskyy in Kyiv in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-25T07:22:38
2023-12-31T20:35:26
2023-12-31T20:35:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eGFsoYBc4pKvaJuLO6oD
Will Xi Jinping meet with Zelenskyy in person by the end of May 2023?
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/zelenskyy-plans-meet-china-president-xi-jinping-ukraine-russia-3304786 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64762219.amp For this to resolve yes, the meeting has to be non-virtual. It does not have to happen on Ukraine or Chinese soil.
2023-02-25T07:07:52
2023-05-31T20:59:00
2023-05-31T21:11:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-W3eGfEGPcguntOZmSStU
If Jeremy Corbyn is prevented from standing as a Labour candidate in the next UK general election, will he stand as a non-Labour candidate?
The current party leadership have said that Corbyn will not be allowed to stand as Labour's candidate. Corbyn says he intends to go for it. Resolves YES if Jeremy Corbyn is a parliamentary candidate as an independent or for any party other than the Labour Party (including a new party). Resolves NO if he chooses not to run (following being prevented from standing as the Labour candidate). Resolves N/A if he is allowed to stand as the Labour candidate. See this market for whether he will be allowed to stand for Labour: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Fion/will-jeremy-corbyn-stand-as-a-labou)
2023-02-25T04:17:16
2024-06-05T07:14:30
2024-06-05T07:14:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gv2e5maXPAdlRNvSn4T5
Will Destiny have 645k subscribers by the end of March?
Market will resolve at 11:59 March, 31
2023-02-24T20:00:09
2023-03-31T21:59:00
2023-04-01T08:17:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DDBzSBtumLtFBhoct2ef
Will Russia and China sign a new agreement of mutual cooperation during 2023?
Can be over any issue.
2023-02-24T17:05:21
2023-09-04T01:06:28
2023-09-04T01:06:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MyrBBILmV9aYCloIJddK
Will the US Fed funds rate be 7 or higher at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-24T16:34:43
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:49:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YUOLO45W0O9dAELqnIIB
Will the german Bundestag pass a general speed limit in Germany before 2024?
Related to: https://manifold.markets/Jede/will-there-be-a-speed-limit-in-germ?r=SGFubmVzR2Vvcmc Germany still has no speed limit. But polls show a 55-60% preference for a speed limit. The german goverment coalition (social democrats, green and liberals) is divided on this topic. The green party argues that it's impossible to reach the climate goals without a speed limit while the liberal party argues that imposing a general speed limit would be an excessive state intervention. The social democratic party is siding slightly in favour of a speed limit. The topic was already anticipated to become controversial during the coalition talks because both, the green and the liberal party, promised in their election campaign to impose a speed limit/never impose a speed limit. There are now several other laws that the liberal party is trying to pass and they may try to use the speed limit as leverage in negotiations with the green party. The market will resolve true if the german Bundestag passes a law by dec 31st 2023 or earlier that imposses a general speed limit on german roads, regardless of when the law will become effective. The decision of the Bundesrat will not be decisive.
2023-02-24T15:20:14
2023-12-30T15:59:00
2023-12-30T22:44:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r4ApeO0rScWn7FHAO4it
Will there be more than 4 major analogues of ChatGPT by the end of 2023?
Resolves as YES, if there’re more than 4 different companies providing general chat experience without major limitations with more than 10 million monthly active users in December 2023**. There should be a free tier allowing more than 10 chats, 50 questions a day, and available without the "waiting room" at least 16 hours a day on average. **EDIT: We'll use "monthly visits". Yes, this is a major change to the conditions. But it seemed fair. I accept and will consider any objections. See https://manifold.markets/ValentinGolev/will-there-be-more-than-4-major-ana#OQV9s1bDjiMxj4zArZmp I will use https://www.similarweb.com/ for traffic estimates. Benchmark for “general chat experience” is ChatGPT as it currently is (it was 3.5 at the time of the market opening), example of “Major limitations” is Bing Chat’s “five questions per session” limitation. Current tally/examples: ChatGPT: generally available for free, counts Poe: includes powerful models, generally available for free, counts (we're counting "companies providing access", so free gpt-3.5 through Poe is fine) LLAMA & analogues: not powerful enough Claude: included in Poe, but doesn't count separately as it's not generally available by itself Character.ai: generally available. if someone shows me something that reasonably argues that it's close in power to ChatGPT-3.5, i'll consider it. doesn't count yet Bard: I will continue to consider restriction to americans-only as a "major limitation", and I hope one day it'll go without saying. doesn't count Bing AI: every time I try bing ai, it refuses to help and is annoying in many ways. this IMO is a major limitation. I was lucky to try bing chat when it was more helpful but it won't count anymore. (feel free to show me something that proves that it's changed). doesn't count LLaMA 2: someone should show me that someone serves it for free for the general audience, or that the "powerful" version in question (70B?) can run at least on my very good laptop (M2 Pro) with the speed that still feels like a chat experience. otherwise it's a "no" Pi.ai I think is a "yes", unless benchmarks prove otherwise, and if it survives as a free, generally available tool in december 2023, and gets some users. ( https://www.similarweb.com/website/pi.ai/#overview says 143k visits... too low) so there's 2 actual, 1 questionable, and 2 potentially but not actually available
2023-02-24T13:21:07
2023-09-23T15:00:00
2023-12-22T14:36:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jfZq77V2Asj99xSHUYgG
Will technology related to ChatGPT significantly alter the role of Student Essays in US College Admissions by 2024?
This concerns the Fall 2024 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2023 for Early Decision, and January/February 2024 for Regular Decision. Resolves as YES, if, for the Bachelor-level admissions for 2024, at least one of those things happens: one of the Ivy League colleges omits the student essay from their Bachelor-level admissions process one of the Ivy League colleges adds additional technological requirements for the Student Essay that are designed to prevent, detect, hinder the use of LLMs, or three of the Ivy League colleges officially declare that, while the essay still a part of the admissions, it's considered much less important than before It's still a NO, if Ivy League colleges officially declare that they look for something else in the essay (like, more personal experiences?), but the weight of the essay doesn't seem to change. (I'm not sure this is the best kind of criteria, please let me know!) See also: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/chatgpt-ai-writing-college-student-essays/672371/ ( https://archive.is/DQME4 )
2023-02-24T13:00:45
2023-12-21T17:11:50
2023-12-21T17:11:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5JyzBvet827GF7Hu9WRr
Will Jon Tester be reëlected?
To his Montana U.S. Senate seat.
2023-02-24T12:50:34
2024-11-06T18:31:10
2024-11-06T18:31:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3BJnDP9wtlDv8VDww4Z9
Will Mr Girl claim to have been made Suicidal by Destiny in his manifesto?
I will only count the title & body text of his official article. If there is dispute what the real manifesto/article is, I will go by whichever document takes focus on Destiny specifically in relation to sexual impropriety, or if there are multiple, then whichever document makes up the majority of the video MrGirl uploads covering the "manifesto". If it's actually really unclear, I'll resolve to poll. Any phraseology is sufficient for a YES resolution. He must explicitly mention suicidality, suicidal thoughts, and at least infer that it is Destiny's fault. For example, "throughout this period I was so distressed I wanted to kill myself", or [in reference to himself] "It is enough to make someone suicidal". Explicit mention of suicidality in reference to himself will resolve YES. Will resolve to poll if unsure and market is popular (20+ traders), otherwise N/A only if I believe it is unclear. Edit 18/3/23 I will no longer hold a position in this market. My decision will be unbiased and in line with the spirit of the market. Good luck
2023-02-23T23:43:53
2023-03-25T06:29:00
2023-03-25T22:11:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wm8cGSJQ4P4qZMV9IN7C
Will the film 'The Boy and the Heron' win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_Do_You_Live%3F_(film)
2023-02-23T23:26:02
2024-03-10T20:57:36
2024-03-10T20:57:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PrDz812mnLss4229ntTt
Will 'The Boy and the Heron' be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_and_the_Heron
2023-02-23T23:22:04
2024-01-23T08:27:52
2024-01-23T08:27:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xAigTTDjFZrnGHgaidd3
Will Joe Biden have a positive net approval in his first term?
Resolves YES if FiveThirtyEight's Biden approval rating shows Joe Biden with an approval rating higher than his disapproval rating any time between February 23, 2023 and January 20, 2025. Otherwise, resolves NO on January 20, 2025. Resolves N/A if FiveThirtyEight's Biden approval rating tracker is unavailable and market participants cannot agree on a suitable replacement
2023-02-23T21:23:58
2025-01-20T20:59:00
2025-01-23T22:01:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IHzI9bSdQF8VoyVzwTK8
Will Sam Bankman Fried be dead before he goes to trial?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-23T18:35:06
2023-10-03T12:55:34
2023-10-03T12:55:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hLJ5q3sT7T4hYTXrH4vM
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on April 1?
Same as this market, but with a longer timeline: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottLawrence/will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-on-march)
2023-02-23T14:13:55
2023-04-01T22:59:00
2023-04-02T09:51:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JC3hvPl2tyAstFXbCVxG
Will BBBY have filed for bankruptcy before June 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-23T08:46:15
2023-06-19T16:59:00
2023-06-22T13:05:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EXIArXk4jkSQbUbK5Q6X
Will Lance Stroll out qualify Fernando Alonso at any point in the 2023 F1 season?
This applies only to the traditional 3 stage qualifying on Saturdays (or Fridays during a sprint weekend) and is based off the final classification at the end of all 3 stages. In order for a session to count, both drivers must take part and set a time in the session. This market will be resolved either at the end of the last qualifying session of the season or when Stroll out qualifies Alonso, whichever comes first.
2023-02-23T04:03:14
2023-07-31T12:27:15
2023-07-31T12:27:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-d7a6rDM50YFtCLHNSlGz
Will YourRageGaming win "Best Just Chatting Streamer" at the Streamer Awards
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-22T20:37:07
2023-07-17T09:32:42
2023-07-17T09:32:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BFyHNBLWv5H8UiH34Zi3
Will Ron DeSantis win at least five states in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least five states during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-02-22T16:59:41
2024-05-22T05:39:20
2024-05-22T05:39:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3nQAxRqwYqdmTZrIFnh3
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win at least one state in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Vivek Ramaswamy wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-02-22T16:56:35
2024-06-14T00:03:37
2024-06-14T00:03:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-d16o1gcL4ufvy5hWyj8a
Will Destiny reach 690k subscribers by April 20th, 2023?
Resolves yes if Destiny's main channel gets to 690k subscribers before April 20th, 2023 at 11:59pm EST. Resolves no if yes is not met
2023-02-22T11:40:30
2023-04-20T20:59:00
2023-04-21T07:04:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rOtm2dBLmVkJ5Gka8H8y
Will Destiny play a game with Lilypichu?
Resolves YES if Destiny plays a "game" with Lilypichu by July. A "game" is qualified by a mulitplayer game that is actively livestreamed. If a situation where the "game" they play is argueably a game but controversal, I will have the last say where I gather the popular opinion and what I seem fit. An example of a game I wouldn't count is Got Rhythm, but I would count a game like chess. You can ask any clarifying questions if you'd like.
2023-02-22T06:40:24
2023-06-30T21:59:00
2023-07-02T20:07:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7YR3RoukybG0YTh40sVm
Will an AI account on Instagram have more than 1M followers by the end of 2023?
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/02/viral-instagram-photographer-has-a-confession-his-photos-are-ai-generated/ The above story is about an Instagram account that has 12k followers, and uses AI to generate image. Human touch-ups are OK. The content must be primarily AI generated (only 2 of this artists photos are real). Either the account holder must state that the content is AI generated, or it must be generally held to believed to be true of the followers, before the market elapses.
2023-02-22T06:29:33
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-11T00:17:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ms8C1kT4rav8kwvBi1CA
Will Georgia GOP State legislators attempt to remove Fani Willis as Fulton County DA before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-22T02:20:32
2023-12-31T14:16:08
2023-12-31T14:16:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BTIEukA1Eng1JDhjk9eY
Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?
Language models have shown remarkable progress in generating human-like text. One of the most advanced language models is ChatGPT, based on deep learning techniques and pre-trained on vast amounts of text data. This technology has been used to generate text for various applications, including chatbots and language translation tools. One potential application of language models is to use them in dialogue trees for non-player characters (NPCs) in triple-A games, which could lead to more engaging and immersive gameplay. If a major triple-A game (as defined by industry standards) is released by the end of 2023 that features dialogue trees for NPCs that have been confirmed to incorporate language models or similar natural language processing technologies, the market will resolve as "Yes." If no major triple-A game is released by the end of 2023 that features dialogue trees for NPCs incorporating language models or similar natural language processing technologies, or if the use of such technologies in triple-A games by the end of 2023 is only in a limited or experimental capacity, the market will resolve as "No."
2023-02-22T00:38:50
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2024-01-01T08:55:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wl64oIw9XypJNrDFeFf1
Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2024
Language models have shown remarkable progress in generating human-like text. One of the most advanced language models is ChatGPT, based on deep learning techniques and pre-trained on vast amounts of text data. This technology has been used to generate text for various applications, including chatbots and language translation tools. One potential application of language models is to use them in dialogue trees for non-player characters (NPCs) in triple-A games, which could lead to more engaging and immersive gameplay. If a major triple-A game (as defined by industry standards) is released by the end of 2024 that features dialogue trees for NPCs that have been confirmed to incorporate language models or similar natural language processing technologies, the market will resolve as "Yes." If no major triple-A game is released by the end of 2024 that features dialogue trees for NPCs incorporating language models or similar natural language processing technologies, or if the use of such technologies in triple-A games by the end of 2024 is only in a limited or experimental capacity, the market will resolve as "No."
2023-02-22T00:27:58
2024-12-31T18:59:00
2025-01-20T12:00:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Q6DLW8JovFCmTeLgHzij
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2023?
Eliezer Yudowsky is a renowned AI Alignment researcher. Recently on sabatical from the the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) after apparently losing hope in the fight to prevent missaligned AI from being developed. He recently appeared on the Bankless Podcast indicating that he had given up but was putting himself out there for (apparently) very frank interviews. Lex Fridman is an MIT Machine Learning researcher and podcaster.
2023-02-21T23:14:21
2023-03-30T14:13:23
2023-03-30T14:13:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-u64Lb17rytIQahcowyeJ
Will the full release of Bing Chat occur before the end of May
If a GPT-based chat feature is integrated into the Bing search engine for all users by the end of may, resolves to yes.
2023-02-21T21:05:11
2023-05-31T21:00:00
2023-06-07T06:14:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-88Pqe1prvVLgAZI8tnV6
Will US home prices decline by over 20% from all time highs in 2023?
As measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA All time high for these purposes is the June '22 reading of 308.365. If at any time a 2023 reading returns at 246.692 or lower, this question resolves "Yes". Otherwise "No". If no reading has resulted in a "Yes" resolution then the question will resolve "No" after the Dec '23 reading is reported around March '24. Betting will close EOY '23.
2023-02-21T20:48:14
2024-03-29T21:59:00
2024-03-30T05:01:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-niLj0VXQI7SeBQK1Rkjp
Will Bing Chat no longer be available on Bing Search at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-21T19:51:55
2023-12-31T20:20:24
2023-12-31T20:20:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-q2lqQ09dokJF7HSLHM7P
Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi without a steering wheel by end of 2024?
Must be ordered from my phone. I may bet on this market. 2023-08-13 Edit: I live in SF. I do not plan to move in this time period. I am approved for Waymo and Cruise vehicles.
2023-02-21T16:39:51
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-02T15:03:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yHRqPL85UkhA6vFy9Bjv
Will there be more Meta layoffs by 2023-04-30?
This market resolves positively if Meta leadership announces layoffs of >=5% of workforce. Layoffs must be announced, but do not need to be carried out within this timeframe. If more than one layoff is announced such that each layoff is less than 5%, but together they comprise more than 5%, this DOES fulfill the condition.
2023-02-21T16:13:35
2023-04-30T23:59:00
2023-05-05T12:52:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-AysA7xIQWmOhbGiUs0et
Will Biden visit Taiwan in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-21T15:29:48
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:32:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ayFOpfyFEGNGnnHN516b
Will Elon Musk talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI alignment in 2023?
Market resolves if they talk about it in person or through the call (not just exchange a few tweets) Feb 22, 12:16pm: Will Elon Mask talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI alignment in 2023? → Will Elon Musk talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI alignment in 2023?
2023-02-21T12:43:24
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T02:51:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tPc6kRmjXfIZLlwJ5D8r
Now that Joe Biden has begun running for the 2024 Democratic Nomination, will he be the nominee?
Resolves N/A if he announces that he's not running (UPDATE: since he has announced that he is running this market will not resolve N/A based on this clause). Otherwise resolves based on who is nominated at the 2024 DNC. Technically the following two markets should tell us the implied odds for this market: [markets](as of market creation 0.74/0.79 ≈ 0.93) However, since the implied odds have fluctuated substantially, I'm creating a separate market which should (in theory) be more stable. See Also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/if-joe-biden-is-the-2024-nominee-wi)
2023-02-21T12:26:17
2024-08-20T17:37:04
2024-08-20T17:37:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uRSmOqVEiu1It3obI61i
Will AI safety (broadly defined) be a partisan issue in US politics before 2024?
Resolves to "yes" if there are at least 3 prominent AI safety bills (subjective, up to me, but more likely to qualify with coverage from major news outlets) that do not pass in Congress (halt in the House of Representatives or the Senate) after votes in which 90% or more of House / Senate Democrats vote for one side and 90% or more of House / Senate Republicans vote for the other side. Here, I use a broader definition of "AI safety" than "AI notkilleveryoneism," including AI ethics (responsible AI, fairness, accountability, transparency), misuse risks (deepfakes, building weapons wtih AI), and AGI risks. However, I do not count bills that fail to pass because of clear connections to existing partisan issues (e.g. social welfare programs to deal with AI-related unemployment) -- this part is also subjective and up to me. Mar 25, 9:36pm: Will AI safety be a partisan issue in US politics before 2024? → Will AI safety (broadly defined) be a partisan issue in US politics before 2024?
2023-02-21T11:41:20
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-01-01T19:09:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zif7pFT4IR8WdgoiTdWk
Will the abortion drug "mifepristone" be banned nationwide before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-21T09:45:32
2023-12-31T20:31:27
2023-12-31T20:31:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RRmJn2XPamAD3ANqtjRf
[READ DESCRIPTION] Will there be a Primary debate for President by September?
Note (7/3/2023): Many reports are saying Donald Trump plans to skip the first Republican presidential debate, if this happens the August debate does not count for this market as long as he remains top 2 in polling. Original Market Rules / Description--- Some context: For the 2016 cycle, the first primary debate was held by the Republicans on August 6, 2015. For the 2020 cycle, the first primary debate was held by the Democrats on June 26, 2019. Will ANY party have a Presidential debate for the 2024 cycle before September 1 2023? IMPORTANT: To be considered a debate for the purposes of this market, the debate MUST include the top two candidates by polling who have actually declared. -- As of 7/3/2023, this would require either Trump and DeSantis to attend the same debate or RFK JR and Biden to attend the same debate. -- I will take the most recent poll from 538 sorting for C+ or higher at some point on the day of the debate. Polls with major candidates purposefully excluded will be avoided. The debate doesn't have to be approved by the parties themselves but it does have to be available live through one of the following: ABC, FOX, NBC (locals, but available nationwide) or CNN, FOX NEWS, MSNBC (national). YouTuber held debates, should that be a thing (or some other platform), don't count unless they have the official endorsement of the party. In-person forums without live coverage don't count.
2023-02-21T03:17:18
2023-08-31T21:00:00
2023-08-31T21:15:17
no
MANIFOLD