id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-QQmmUdMOPbIRl9QhroMh | Will iPhone 15 Pro will have a usb-c port? | Resolves to yes if iPhone 15 pro will have a usb-c port. If there is no iPhone 15 pro, then it will be resolved based on iPhone 15. If Apple don't release a new iPhone in 2023 it will be resolved to n/a. | 2023-02-21T00:20:22 | 2023-09-11T13:59:00 | 2023-09-12T13:49:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uYgbvmSEaoySZluKrBVQ | Will CGP Grey upload a video to his main channel before March 31st 2023? | This market resolves to Yes if a new video is uploaded to https://youtube.com/@CGPGrey before March 31st 2023 23:59:59 GMT. It will still resolve to Yes even if it's a short.
[image] | 2023-02-20T22:36:57 | 2023-03-28T04:53:45 | 2023-03-28T04:53:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TTz5WBZklJfUS1R4BlGG | Will Union Berlin win the Bundesliga in the 2022-2023 season? | This market will resolve positively if the Bundesliga website (https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/table ) reports Union Berlin in position 1 at the end of the Bundesliga 2022-2023 season | 2023-02-20T21:23:13 | 2023-05-15T16:59:00 | 2023-05-15T17:09:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QyHMuM5r9PnTn4Y0j0RG | Will Tesla offer significant discounts (>50%) to Enhanced autopilot or FSD in 2023? | At the time of market creation, Tesla Inc. sells Enhanced Autopilot for 6000 USD and Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta for 15000 USD. This market resolves YES if before Jan 1, 2024, Tesla offers a >50% discount to either software upgrade.
If Tesla offers either for free, this would be counted as a 100% discount.
If Tesla ... | 2023-02-20T20:51:20 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:32:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S1SuHmG9poM86GvnbECW | Will Michelle Yeoh win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Evelyn Quan Wang in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the 95th Academy Awards? | Resolves YES if Yeoh wins, NO otherwise.
Other Oscars markets:
https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023 | 2023-02-20T14:29:03 | 2023-03-12T20:29:00 | 2023-03-12T20:29:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OU4v8YSjWLpNOBuOLjnV | Will Cate Blanchett win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Lydia Tár in 'Tár' at the 95th Academy Awards? | Resolves YES if Blanchett wins, NO otherwise.
Other Oscars markets:
https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023 | 2023-02-20T14:24:26 | 2023-03-12T20:28:05 | 2023-03-12T20:28:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X3qEai9R0uPybRo5ZBbx | Will Tesla Full Self Driving reach 500K users by the end of 2023? | We know how many have purchased the service because of the recall last week, roughly 362,000. I suspect Tesla will dramatically drop the price of FSD to get more users based on the idea that then the system will improve faster. Will 138,000 more Tesla owners pay to be guinea pigs for Musk by the end of 2023? | 2023-02-20T09:24:25 | 2023-12-31T16:47:17 | 2023-12-31T16:47:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3hoy92xFKV9SQbX1HTiy | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be arrested during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-20T03:02:39 | 2023-11-06T05:07:51 | 2023-11-06T05:07:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YC63PlgGakwn9fZyK4TZ | Will the Wagner private military be disbanded during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-20T03:00:38 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-06T23:32:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mDwbJO3LviG4eag65be2 | Will China Supply Arms to Russia in Ukraine War during 2023? | https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-warns-china-could-arm-russia-as-ukraine-seeks-to-repel-advances-in-east-a5fd3e9e | 2023-02-19T23:06:19 | 2023-12-31T07:59:00 | 2024-01-07T19:12:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cIQaBsu2LVH8awut4OVx | Will the judge in SBF trial rule that he violated the terms of his bail and order him remanded pending trial? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-19T17:21:16 | 2023-08-11T13:06:50 | 2023-08-11T13:06:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g41JUMdk2YwV9VqlOcYQ | Will Meta announce layoffs by 2023-04-30? | Layoffs must be covered by a major news organization by close time, 2023-04-30 11:59 PM Pacific Time.
Original market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MatthewEbeweber/will-meta-announce-layoffs-in-2023) | 2023-02-19T13:43:23 | 2023-03-15T17:31:49 | 2023-03-15T17:31:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-shp2IKUo3tFwgOKJG1qp | Will Israel seize and occupy any new previously unoccupied territory by the end of 2023? | Includes Gaza per the comments below from 6 months ago. >> This means occupying Gaza would resolve YES, wanted to make sure this was clear.
[markets] | 2023-02-19T12:40:05 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:10:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b6IpD83QVX9okDk4dLhe | Will Israel and Iran be engaged in open war by the end of June? | [markets] | 2023-02-19T12:28:11 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-06-30T21:21:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DVCX2X1nQ6CDPH7FarpI | Will the Houston Astros win the AL West division in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-19T08:07:40 | 2023-10-01T16:33:41 | 2023-10-01T16:33:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XNEkXRQfiy1iZEMOTAnx | Will ChatGPT be Time's 2023 Person of the Year? | Will any version of ChatGPT be Time's Person of the Year for 2023?
| 2023-02-19T07:46:20 | 2023-12-06T15:04:23 | 2023-12-06T15:04:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RnRVTy4W7748fyfUHQWm | Will 'Barbie' get Metascore greater than 85? | Barbie is an upcoming romantic comedy film directed by Greta Gerwig and written by Gerwig and Noah Baumbach. Based on the Barbie fashion dolls by Mattel from Ruth Handler, the film is the first live-action Barbie film after several computer-animated direct-to-video and streaming television films. The film stars Margot ... | 2023-02-19T06:42:04 | 2023-07-28T05:59:50 | 2023-07-28T05:59:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aX3kZcyOkuBIozS88IG4 | Will a different machine learning architecture that is much faster or much cheaper (at least 5x) than current SOTA (Transformers), for both inference and training, be released in 2023? | Feb 19, 7:42pm: Will a different machine learning architecture that is much faster (at least 5x) than current SOTA (Transformers) be released in 2023? → Will a different machine learning architecture that is much faster or much cheaper (at least 5x) than current SOTA (Transformers), for both inference and training, be ... | 2023-02-19T01:58:22 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-09T06:05:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eC7z9DiFa5bLzgyy4TS0 | Will US software engineer total compensation be higher at end of 2023? | Resolves to YES if the median total compensation value in the webpage below is greater than US$170,500 on Dec. 31st 2023 or NO if equal or lower.
https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/locations/united-states
If this URL stops working, I will base the final value on the levels.fyi median all-level software engine... | 2023-02-18T22:10:57 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:01:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uc3fPwFyKhX0TJB93m7V | Will Destiny become friends with Keffals? | Resolve: Keffals becomes Destiny's orbiter, rebuilds bridge. | 2023-02-18T16:18:55 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T17:09:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ak6PXCgo5qZUH83k187d | Will Elon Musk be CEO of Twitter by the end of 2023? | If Elon Musk is still officially CEO of Twitter at 11:59pm 12/31/23, this market will resolve YES. | 2023-02-18T14:33:27 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:13:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CXo5hsARA6WJU9RrXTEr | Will there be a Democratic primary debate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-18T14:04:13 | 2024-07-31T20:59:00 | 2024-08-24T11:06:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CZwk8bvqylSk5BJrUooX | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on March 1? | Resolved using Eastern time, as that's where he lives. | 2023-02-18T13:13:59 | 2023-03-01T15:59:00 | 2023-03-01T16:14:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cFXN3nJiK8H2Q0TA13ox | Will all living current and past presidents attend Jimmy Carter's funeral? | Clarification: This market resolves 'Yes' only for those who attend the funeral ceremony on Thursday, January 9, 2025. Events held earlier, like the tribute at the Capitol, are not included since they are not the 'funeral' itself. | 2023-02-18T13:05:12 | 2025-01-09T08:17:47 | 2025-01-09T08:17:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sJF6HUJwlWgdniAzFTHs | Will Israel commit to provide Ukraine with an Iron Dome missile defense system by the end of 2023? | Not necessary for delivery to take place, just annoucement of a commitment by Israel. | 2023-02-18T12:48:37 | 2023-12-31T20:54:00 | 2023-12-31T20:54:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NxgeEjiS1mBPMLweNjJM | Will 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Across_the_Spider-Verse | 2023-02-18T11:42:20 | 2024-03-10T20:57:00 | 2024-03-10T20:57:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qL76tOOXQrAQtR93fWd2 | Will someone commit suicide as a result of instructions/recommendations/insults/suggestions from an AI chatbot by the end of 2024? | Humans are projecting a lot on to the AI chatbots including the notion of sentience. Already a few writers claimed to have felt uncomfortable when Bing AI or ChatGPT told them they were their enemy or that they were bad people. One can expect that less psychologically stable people may feel the effects from this more s... | 2023-02-18T11:17:54 | 2023-04-13T00:53:30 | 2023-04-13T00:53:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v0vJt7Tb9F2erROVq2ti | Will Elon Musk open source the twitter Algorithm? (in 2023) | Will resolve to yes if the Twitter recommendation algorithm is available on github at any point before the end of 2023.
Here is what Elon said before buying twitter:
“One of the things that I believe Twitter should do is open source the algorithm, and make any changes to people’s tweets, if they are emphasized or de... | 2023-02-18T10:06:16 | 2023-04-01T01:37:53 | 2023-04-01T01:39:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bb1CtNe3qMLq4xAiGKiq | Will Destiny reach Grandmaster rank in Starcraft 2? | This resolves to YES if Destiny reaches Grandmaster in SC2 by 2023-05-01, resolves to NO on 2023-05-01 if Destiny has not reached Grandmaster. | 2023-02-17T17:02:11 | 2023-04-30T21:17:29 | 2023-04-30T21:17:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VhbmM0hjELhoUYEVjRBj | Will the movie 'All Quiet on the Western Front' win any Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards? | 'All Quiet on the Western Front' is nominated in 9 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins in any of them. | 2023-02-17T16:53:15 | 2023-03-12T18:46:06 | 2023-03-12T18:46:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zm9W48Orbup6GYd4NWsD | Will Destiny cover the mrgirl manifesto on stream | Will resolve YES if Destiny covers the manifesto on stream by reading/watching it, will resolve NO if he ignores it completely. | 2023-02-17T16:50:20 | 2023-03-27T15:17:31 | 2023-03-27T15:17:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JfCzzcgHInqTAbWQG2Vb | Will 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse' be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-Man:_Across_the_Spider-Verse | 2023-02-17T16:16:24 | 2024-01-23T08:36:30 | 2024-01-23T08:36:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7rf9HvZpNsJW6tnsoe9S | Will Xi Jinping visit Iran during 2023? | The Chinese Foreign Ministry acknowledge that Xi formally accepted an invitation from Tehran extended by President Ebirhim Raisi during this weeks state visit to Beijing. Will the visit happen during 2023? | 2023-02-17T16:12:48 | 2023-12-31T20:10:36 | 2023-12-31T20:10:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wZDmBklV6u6b0r3WO1KH | Will a glowfic-derived rationality or AI post get 100 LW karma before 2024? | I'm mildly interested in having someone distill rationality lessons from planecrash and such onto LessWrong; see here for why. I just added a $300 bounty for someone doing this in a way that gets 100 karma.
In order to qualify for this post and the bounty:
The post MUST be largely about a rationality lesson or AI ali... | 2023-02-17T15:12:51 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-16T07:42:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f9WTgfR1zzpAmxyfqtl7 | Will Australia claim to have shot down a UAP in its airspace by the end of June? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-17T14:20:56 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-06-30T21:21:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zsgC8pQFEwT10rpLpBNe | Will Christopher Nolan be nominated for any category at the 2024's Academy Awards for his film "Oppenheimer"? | "Oppenheimer" is an upcoming film directed by Christopher Nolan, known for his acclaimed works such as "Inception" and "The Dark Knight" trilogy. The movie is a biographical drama about J. Robert Oppenheimer, a physicist who played a vital role in developing the atomic bomb during World War II.
The Academy Awards, als... | 2023-02-17T12:31:49 | 2024-01-15T18:59:00 | 2024-08-25T11:17:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P92dwqvq1FwsUapSb76K | Will John Fetterman be a US Senator for all of the remainder of 2023? | Feb 17, 3:54pm: Will John Fetterman be a US Senator for all of 2023? → Will John Fetterman be a US Senator for all of the remainder of 2023? | 2023-02-17T11:02:00 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T17:49:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-A3ASqRsreeJNDjCHNYtv | Will the phrase "effective altruism" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than over 2021? | What will media attention on EA look like this year?
In 2021, EA was mentioned in 9 articles. In 2023 so far, it's been used only in one, implying 8 by end of year at the current rate. The year 2022 was an outlier largely because of the collapse of FTX and the launch of What We Owe The Future.
Market will resolve to... | 2023-02-17T10:27:23 | 2023-10-07T12:17:32 | 2023-10-07T12:17:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IYQ6aslEqibccfmS9Ey4 | Will the mpox (monkeypox) outbreak end before the summer? | Resolves YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is 0 for any day before June 21 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox
Bidding closes June 20, but I will resolve as soon as there is data for that day. Notice that there could be adj... | 2023-02-17T08:12:18 | 2023-06-20T20:59:00 | 2023-06-27T06:13:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YwkDvwPfZD0d5cppFupe | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win World Chess Championship? | YES = Nepo Wins
NO = Liren Wins
N/A = Magnus Carlsen shows up and plays anyways and Wins
For reference:
Nepo: Candidates Winner, ELO 2793, 32 Years Old, Russian team
Liren: Candidates Runner Up, ELO 2788, 30 Years Old, Chinese team
The tournament is in Kazakhstan from April 7th to May 1st. 14 games. Standard rule... | 2023-02-17T08:03:44 | 2023-05-01T21:59:00 | 2023-05-05T13:24:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yuB9eKhHZVkMU5VsO8td | Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) gross more than $500 million domestically before 2024? | The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $500 million, this mar... | 2023-02-17T06:52:23 | 2023-05-06T11:12:25 | 2023-05-06T11:12:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-G9qYOkYCsJbALiRhuFIy | Will destiny reach 750k subscribers by the end of August? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny | 2023-02-17T05:44:24 | 2023-08-31T16:59:00 | 2023-09-01T03:27:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JDnzZ392WUFUp7YJhmGQ | Will there be an SBF TV series or movie before his trial is over? | Elizabeth Holmes has been able to enjoy several very excellent documentaries and dramatizations of her scandel while still a free woman. Will SBF have the same, uh, privilege?? | 2023-02-17T03:14:27 | 2023-11-08T11:39:11 | 2023-11-08T11:39:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-J8tDD0dkzNlAakWlP4NW | Will 'Hogwarts Legacy' win any awards at The Game Awards 2023? | If 'Hogwarts Legacy' wins any awards in any category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If it doesn't win in any, it will resolve to NO.
See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards#Categories | 2023-02-17T03:12:06 | 2023-11-13T09:50:19 | 2023-11-13T09:50:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MKEgsoVFmaIN3aVL4Fia | Will Tulsi Gabbard seek the GOP nomination in 2024? | She has been reborn in the church of Tucker Carlson and the people I know who voted for Trump think she is the next best thing. Does she agree with them? | 2023-02-17T01:33:06 | 2024-07-19T11:14:43 | 2024-07-19T11:14:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZC1hasqo50YZjcGIS25G | Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023? | Inspired by "I am Bing, and I am evil". See also What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like.
A notable attack could include a bombing, an attack on someone who works there, a hack, etc. The attack does not need to be successful; a bomb that doesn't detonate would still count. However the planned atta... | 2023-02-17T00:55:24 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-02T16:16:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1s924fFp3KZZcFWJMF1t | Will Joseph Anderson release his Witcher 3 review by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-17T00:43:29 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:21:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n3Ms7EAHAtTq3k998ioR | Will Manchester United win the Europa League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-16T23:14:39 | 2023-04-20T22:44:23 | 2023-04-20T22:44:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C6coFeEFcb8DDrp1vTke | Will google home assistant have LLM integration by Oct 1, 2023? | It needs to be for all users. If its only available via white-listing then resolves NO | 2023-02-16T19:58:18 | 2023-10-01T20:59:00 | 2023-10-01T21:15:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eSOhWbeyQsqU7VMlfQqN | Will Ron DeSantis suspend his presidential campaign before 'Super Tuesday' in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries? | In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns before Super Tuesday could happen, including Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee.
In 2024, Super Tuesday is currently likely to be held on the 5th of March, 2024.
... | 2023-02-16T16:26:56 | 2024-01-21T14:28:51 | 2024-01-21T14:28:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rCZldpnk0860E6NfT3aH | February 2023: Will Putin's approval in Russia increase? | If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in January 2023 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president.
Will Putin's approval in... | 2023-02-16T16:21:52 | 2023-03-19T15:59:00 | 2023-03-19T16:20:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vX6wwnPuBKImHCloXnTu | Will Nikki Haley suspend her presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary or caucus is held? | In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa cau... | 2023-02-16T15:37:39 | 2024-01-15T15:48:32 | 2024-01-15T15:48:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mlIogIvwFPjs5HnKNKxG | Will Jesus Christ return by the end of 2023? | Resolves to YES if @Jesus creates or resolves any markets or makes any comments by the end of the year. Bets don't count, since prayer works on the basis that Jesus can manipulate probabilities without manifesting in corporeal form. | 2023-02-16T15:28:05 | 2023-04-09T12:01:00 | 2023-04-09T12:01:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4H6g2pWn9Db9kTAARPQi | Will there be credible reports of major, successful IP theft against Anthropic by the end of 2023? | "Successful" meaning the fruits of the IP theft were deployed, monetized, or deliberately released publicly. The IP theft need not have happened in 2023. | 2023-02-16T14:48:30 | 2024-01-01T08:33:50 | 2024-01-01T08:33:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qFOSIjC7loduse8hxKlC | Will there be credible reports of major, successful IP theft against OpenAI by the end of 2023? | "Successful" meaning the fruits of the IP theft were deployed, monetized, or deliberately released publicly. The IP theft need not have happened in 2023. | 2023-02-16T14:48:17 | 2024-01-01T08:33:06 | 2024-01-01T08:33:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qzvv0sMITElFHRYM2sj8 | Will Ron DeSantis win the Iowa Republican presidential caususes in 2024? | The Iowa caucuses are scheduled to be held on January 22nd, 2024.
Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in the Iowa Republican presidential caususes. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate cou... | 2023-02-16T14:35:18 | 2024-01-20T12:29:17 | 2024-01-20T12:29:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ | Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4? | Microsoft's blog says:
We’re excited to announce the new Bing is running on a new, next-generation OpenAI large language model that is more powerful than ChatGPT and customized specifically for search. It takes key learnings and advancements from ChatGPT and GPT-3.5 – and it is even faster, more accurate and more capa... | 2023-02-16T14:22:11 | 2023-03-14T15:53:22 | 2023-03-14T15:53:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pg5SE13qA2w1VUAHdDiI | Is Bing's chatbot sentient? [Resolves to poll] | Resolves to the majority result of a yes/no poll of Manifold users at the end of 2023. If Bing changes their chatbot in between market creation and the poll, the poll is about the chatbot as it was when this market was created. | 2023-02-16T14:10:38 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-15T13:06:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NJwOrbBCu7DU74386PlD | Are we about to hit another AI winter? | Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter
Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it. | 2023-02-16T13:56:55 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-03T08:25:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8OgHU3oYE2KmNSnDrVDC | Will 'Diablo IV' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | If 'Diablo IV' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Diablo IV' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-02-16T13:46:14 | 2023-11-13T09:40:18 | 2023-11-13T09:40:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5gKb9KPankfI3gpThpeS | Will 'Starfield' win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfield_(video_game)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards | 2023-02-16T12:39:17 | 2023-11-13T09:43:05 | 2023-11-13T09:43:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-erZ8pYQ2xVxhXESUfppb | Will the iPhone 16 have a charging port? | The iPhone 16 is the hypothetical next generation of Apple's popular iPhone series, which is expected to be released in the future. At the time of this writing, the iPhone 15 has not yet been released, so the iPhone 16 is likely several years away.
The question of whether or not the iPhone 16 will have a charging por... | 2023-02-16T12:00:38 | 2024-09-10T09:27:01 | 2024-09-10T09:27:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8G2yshP3JRLR251JbVX5 | Will the S&P 500 have a positive annual return for the year 2023? | If the closing value of the index is higher than the opening value of the index at the beginning of the year 2023, the market would resolve to "Yes", meaning that the S&P 500 had a positive annual return for the year. If the closing value of the index is lower than the opening value of the index at the beginning of the... | 2023-02-16T11:28:36 | 2023-12-29T20:24:44 | 2023-12-29T20:24:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YHnU4aVGNZ0yTCuH1R8q | Will Stephen Miller be charged with a crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023? | You know, this choad.
[image] | 2023-02-16T09:25:25 | 2023-12-31T20:54:15 | 2023-12-31T20:54:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-459Kf2C6U9WZgVG3Rx39 | Will any of Donald Trump's children or their spouses be charged with a crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-16T09:22:37 | 2023-12-31T20:11:16 | 2023-12-31T20:11:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wulWcBIABiloqvRj4fUe | Will any of Donald Trump's children or their spouses be a witness against him in a criminal trial by the end of 2024? | They must testify and not take the 5th amendment. Kimberly Guilfoil will be excluded until she and Don Jr tie the knot. | 2023-02-16T09:18:47 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:23:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rqdEv2X5G40GqSr3Scgs | Will Donald Trump suffer a ST-Elevated Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) by the end of 2023? | This is a major heart attack.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-donald-trump-be-admitted-to-a) | 2023-02-16T09:16:47 | 2023-12-31T20:54:28 | 2023-12-31T20:54:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JBiIJq21nKCXfDpi1ida | Will 'Resident Evil 4' (2023) be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | If 'Resident Evil 4' (2023) is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Resident Evil 4' (2023) is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.
'Resident Evil 4' (2023) is a remake of the 2005 game of the s... | 2023-02-16T08:57:22 | 2023-11-13T09:41:00 | 2023-11-13T09:41:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UdxpYPoA0bjaL0nYO94N | Will Destiny play Dwarf Fortress before May 1st, 2023? | Will resolve YES if Destiny plays Dwarf Fortress on his YT stream before May 1st, 2023.
Will resolve NO if Destiny does not play Dwarf Fortress on his YT stream before May 1st, 2023.
In the very unlikely event Destiny will stream this game on another platform than YT, I will reserve my right to resolve this as N/A.
... | 2023-02-16T06:07:23 | 2023-04-30T15:00:00 | 2023-05-03T02:25:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HSPYOkNazzyQteh3jlgx | Will Kylian Mbappé sign for a English Premier League Team before the end of the 2024 January Transfer window? | Yes = Kylian Mbappé signs for a English Premier League Team before the end of the 2024 January Transfer window.
No = Kylian Mbappé stays at PSG/Signs for another club outside of the English Premier League/He retires from football/He dies(doesn't play for any professional football team)
*For the market to resolve yes,... | 2023-02-16T03:40:28 | 2024-01-31T17:00:00 | 2024-01-31T17:46:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q2SBC1SAj5ehS9hEnpy9 | Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) gross more than $500 million worldwide before 2024? | https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
Will resolve based on the Box Office Mojo reported numbers. Will resolve YES if it reaches $500 million worldwide, or NO if it hasn't reached $500 million worldwide in the Box Office Mojo total by Jan 1, 2024. | 2023-02-15T17:26:48 | 2023-04-18T14:57:03 | 2023-04-18T14:57:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4DQiVYeEzbooCmllB5JD | Will there be a Moldovan-Romanian union by the end of 2024? | Moldova and Romania speak the same language and reunification has been a possibility since independence. This Jan 2022 article quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.
That was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in both NATO and the EU, so by joining Romania, Moldova could essentiall... | 2023-02-15T17:23:35 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:36:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7aFBuGRTZgrVPLvuI4N1 | Will OpenAI admit that the new Bing Chat AI (a.k.a Sydney) is a version of GPT-4? | Close date updated to 2023-06-30 12:59 am | 2023-02-15T14:43:32 | 2023-03-18T07:44:07 | 2023-03-18T07:44:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-umYZ7AhqUjJIRI7y2sc8 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy become the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-15T14:05:13 | 2024-01-15T21:51:43 | 2024-01-15T21:51:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7XgZSWhWFtSV0SxLUn0P | Will Reddit IPO in 2023? | Resolves YES if in 2023 Reddit goes public, otherwise NO. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.
Announcing that they will go public doesn't count, they need to actually go public in 2023. | 2023-02-15T12:59:23 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:13:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uiuEr679aZqI3PfkS6Ml | Will Ron DeSantis win the Florida Primary in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries? | Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in the Florida Republican presidential primary during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be reso... | 2023-02-15T09:11:42 | 2024-03-24T05:19:00 | 2024-03-24T06:18:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7j656iPkXMOzYxyJX8xT | Will William MacAskill be on the board of EVF at the start of 2024? | Will currently serves on the board of Effective Ventures Foundation (EVF), a successor organization to the Center for Effective Altruism. Many people have thought he should leave the board.
This market will resolve YES if Will is on the board of EVF or any successor organization on January 1, 2024. | 2023-02-15T08:01:46 | 2024-01-04T20:05:12 | 2024-01-04T20:05:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8G4kqCsdh1KbDdIFga5x | Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan be reelected president of Turkey? | Election is in mid-June. | 2023-02-15T07:08:43 | 2023-05-28T13:21:55 | 2023-05-28T13:21:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Od0wrChbsBK2e9QhHPW | Will Donald Trump win the Florida Primary in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in the Florida Republican presidential primary during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be reso... | 2023-02-15T07:01:48 | 2024-03-19T23:23:04 | 2024-03-19T23:23:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k01W6ziWUx3A77OZZZ6X | Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | If 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO. | 2023-02-15T05:31:14 | 2023-11-13T09:41:22 | 2023-11-13T09:41:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FZGruOxI41WbpIwruU8Y | Will the birth rate in Singapore be at least 3% higher in 2024 than in 2023? | Singapore is increasing its baby bonus by S$3000 (about USD$2250). Will this substantially increase birth rates (source: https://twitter.com/business/status/1625678541692993536)? (Also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-singapores-2024-birth-rate-as)
Update 2025-02-01 (PST): - Market closing date extende... | 2023-02-15T05:02:17 | 2025-02-28T03:50:10 | 2025-02-28T03:50:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZxPtFbdvQfTAfWt7lTy1 | Will Twitter limit user's ability to block or mute Elon Musk? | Resolves YES if a credible source will report that at least some users some of the time had their blocks/mute overriden to show at least one of Elon's tweets.
Resolves NO 3 months after Elon stops having direct executive power over engineers at Twitter. Most likely this will be once Elon stops being the CEO, but resol... | 2023-02-15T04:38:11 | 2024-02-14T15:59:00 | 2024-03-16T00:29:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zut5cscxaTR24FuixVtk | Will 'Hogwarts Legacy' win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-15T03:53:04 | 2023-11-13T09:47:44 | 2023-11-13T09:47:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HIQXcNhglmTcvBgikatX | Will Republicans and Democrats (USA) both run one cis male and one cis female as either President or VP in 2024? | Resolves Yes if the final running duo for both parties, republicans and democrats (others excluded) include a President and Vice president that are one male and one female in 2024
Possible combinations for YES:
Cis male president, cis female vice president
Cis female president, cis male vice president
Example: Bide... | 2023-02-15T03:40:23 | 2024-07-15T16:08:31 | 2024-07-15T16:08:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hTT5pZw7nijQ7tNyFVSG | Will anyone be arrested for performing in a drag show in the US during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-15T02:04:26 | 2023-12-31T13:57:21 | 2023-12-31T13:57:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fZP8SQnaDWy0iyVQqWko | Will Tom Scott create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-14T20:50:08 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T15:58:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nUUk3NfCq4xn5NTgLW70 | Will Moldova control Transnistria by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-14T20:49:52 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:35:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1sztIylcNnPWwNQnU7Ko | Will SpaceX have launched 3 Starships to space by 2024-09-13? | Criteria for "launching to space" are as follows (the same as this market):
Any Starships that make it over 100 km in altitude are counted, even if they don't make it to orbit.
Launches that don't make it over 100 km don't count.
If the same Starship is launched twice, then it counts twice.
If a Starship briefly ma... | 2023-02-14T16:20:56 | 2024-06-12T17:20:31 | 2024-06-12T17:20:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uO8g7WGG1MhX29v3A2oi | Champions League: Will PSG win against Bayern Munich? | Round of 16 - Leg 2 ONLY
YES: PSG wins
NO: Bayern Munich wins / PSG & Bayern Munich draw | 2023-02-14T13:59:40 | 2023-03-08T13:56:42 | 2023-03-08T13:56:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CX1fxVavohpUmR1KsbiM | Will it be discovered that China is using unmanned underwater vehicles to conduct surveillance of US military facilities and activities inside US waters by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-14T13:50:39 | 2023-12-31T20:27:07 | 2023-12-31T20:27:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EUUJhX9Y3iFBgWbuOqsG | Will Nikki Haley be the Republican vice presidential candidate in 2024? | Close date updated to 2024-09-01 6:59 pm | 2023-02-14T13:50:03 | 2024-08-06T08:01:50 | 2024-08-06T08:01:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dZJ1ffV2mYRSn7Wem8VH | Will the nature and origin of any UAP shot down by the US in February remain unknown at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-14T13:45:25 | 2023-12-31T13:59:17 | 2023-12-31T13:59:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YhdKA40d3qtQbSUaEKKl | Will Israel pass the judicial reform bill? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform
Resolves YES if the Knesset passes a bill in 2023 will allows itself to override all or a subset of Supreme Court decisions by a 61 vote majority, and/or which give the government majority control over the appointment or dismissal of judges.
Close date update... | 2023-02-14T13:11:36 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:08:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lBVVX2GozOIr6z6Ivv5u | Will the words UFO or UAP be said in the debates for the 2024 US presidential election? | Can be primaries or main campaign debates, and can be said by either the moderators or the candidates. | 2023-02-14T13:09:16 | 2024-01-15T02:47:55 | 2024-01-15T02:47:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0kB8ewaAJuNAhZGIeKUb | Will John Bolton announce he is seeking the GOP nomination for president in 2024 by the end of May? | I was shocked to read today that he is seriously considering it. | 2023-02-14T12:01:23 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-06-01T05:23:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XqrEKwA3HMiE4BDj4PYB | Will there be M1 Abrams tanks in service in Ukraine by the end of the year? | Any of the M1 Abrams models, from any source.
Tanks need to be in active service. Training does not count. | 2023-02-14T11:48:46 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T19:34:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d9h1XWly42vxNxWxoVpO | Will Nikki Haley win any state in the 2024 GOP primaries? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-02-14T09:23:45 | 2024-03-05T23:08:53 | 2024-03-05T23:08:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-V8ukxiMsryQbSbA0eYeM | Will Nikki Haley finish in the top three in the 2024 Iowa caucuses? | By popular vote, according to mainstream sources. If Iowa holds a Republican primary instead of a caucus, I will use results from that instead.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according... | 2023-02-14T09:09:37 | 2024-01-16T06:56:53 | 2024-01-16T06:56:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dAfN6oRR8VPWwUuvZrYR | Will Ted Cruz like a xeet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2023? | Ted Cruz has not always been careful about what he likes on his Twitter account. Will he like a tweet containing the word rationalussy this year?
Notes:
This market will resolve YES as long as the tweet is liked by Ted Cruz's official account, even if Ted Cruz or his staff says that it was liked by someone else using... | 2023-02-14T09:06:08 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:25:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IyPTzGh0AAmRPq1sbiL3 | Will Mike Pence win at least one state in the Republican primaries? | Resolves YES if Mike Pence wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's off... | 2023-02-14T08:13:43 | 2024-01-22T15:37:49 | 2024-01-22T15:37:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
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