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collingray
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forecasting

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mani-cL0lFWkUXXXdeR28m5ab
Will Brighton qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-14T07:36:20
2023-05-22T06:33:14
2023-05-22T06:33:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FrtulxW6K21d58FFq7N9
Will someone other than Joe Biden win at least one state in the 2024 Democratic Primary?
Resolves YES if a candidate besides Joe Biden gets a plurality of votes in at least one State's Democratic Primary (or the relevant equivalent for the various Democratic Caucuses)
2023-02-14T07:30:42
2024-06-05T11:40:07
2024-06-05T11:40:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MSO5IrUthxyfw6jFEj5t
Will Tim Scott win at least one state in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Tim Scott wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-02-14T06:10:28
2024-06-14T00:08:55
2024-06-14T00:08:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-87RUTvkWZoj3DLBqoKml
Will Bing revert to using less of the chatbot function by the end of 2023?
Reception of the GPT integration with Bing has been mixed, in news and in social media. Talks about the future of search in some places, horrible examples of AI gone wrong in others. Today (2023-02-14) Bing features the chatbot below the search bar, but for a user who is not past the waiting list the default is still Bing's standard search. [Somebody feel free to weigh in what the frontpage looks like with access, and I'll edit the Description] I'll be more likely to resolve to YES if... – Screenshots, direct links, and examples of GPT integration are removed. The less of them, more likely to resolve to YES. – ... I'll be more likely to resolve to NO if... – The page looks very similar to February 2023 – The chatbot is in an even more prominent position – Search defaults to chatbot responses more often than today – Access to the chatbot is no longer on a waiting list, but open (and encouraged) to anyone – ... Since the market is subjective, I will not be participating. [image]
2023-02-14T05:58:08
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-04T01:50:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fKdB9cDi1gB0rk3zij47
Will Donald Trump win at least one state in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-02-14T05:30:34
2024-01-17T00:30:25
2024-01-17T00:30:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DBLogXz1kb9SksF8Mo9E
Will Destiny make a post on his subreddit (r/Destiny) by the end of March?
https://www.reddit.com/user/NeoDestiny/submitted/ Note: comments do not count.
2023-02-14T05:28:23
2023-03-31T08:54:30
2023-03-31T08:54:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BBfy6bNz8gQAI31Ac8Aq
Will Ron DeSantis win at least one state in the Republican primaries?
Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
2023-02-14T05:16:14
2024-06-14T00:03:11
2024-06-14T00:03:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yn9amfgRwkrl5zd5Rnvg
Trump will lose weight, get federally indicted, win the 2024 GOP nomination, drop out, and receive a pardon from a Democratic president
Resolves YES if all of the events listed below happen, in any realistic order: before the 2024 Election Day, at least two notable pundits mention Donald Trump noticeably lost weight, before the 2024 Election Day, Merrick Garland (or any official of the Department of Justice) files federal charges against Trump, Trump wins the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election, Trump drops out of the 2024 presidential election, before Democrats lose the White House, Joe Biden or any other democratic president grants Trump any pardon. Resolves NO otherwise. Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!” Jason Calacanis: “[Biggest political winner and loser for 2023.] I was looking at Biden and Trump and thinking, hmm, which one of these is going to have the big win in 2023. So they're two biggest, I think, players, I have a prediction for Trump. I think he's going to lose 50 pounds on the Ozempic. (…) I think he is going to be indicted by Garland. (…) And then he's going to win the nomination in 24. And we're going to have Trump versus Biden. But this is a crazy prediction here. I think we're going to have a settlement. I think he's going to agree to not run and get the pardon. This is a crazy prediction, I know. But I think he loses the weight, he wins the nom, he gets indicted, and then he gets the Richard Nixon pardon, global pardon for all of the shit he's done.”
2023-02-14T02:20:07
2024-11-05T14:59:00
2024-11-07T19:57:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lBKPeD4kQs3BZgVncciQ
Nikki Haley will win at least one state in the Republican primaries
Resolves YES if Nikki Haley wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise. The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements. Winning at least one state is a proxy for her being a promising contender in the Republican primaries. Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!” Chamath Palihapitiya: “[Who do you predict will be the big political winner of 2023?] I am going to go long Nikki Haley. And I'm going to go short Ron DeSantis. (…) People are getting exhausted with the lunatic fringes of both parties. (…) So if I think about a moderate person who can emerge from the back, who can consolidate the ranks, they should probably be from the south. They will have a lot of these purple compromises that Sacks mentioned in their policy program, and they will have a history of winning and a history of normalcy. And so I think that of all of the places where you could ever elect a woman as President of the United States, I think it will come from the Republicans before it comes from the Democrats. I mean, the Democrats are unfortunately increasingly judgmental. And I think it's very difficult for a woman to emerge there. But I do think that Nikki Haley has a shot.”
2023-02-14T02:03:14
2024-03-06T00:14:40
2024-03-06T00:14:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-C8H6sVWKvkiSBp52r3rw
Google Search will lose more than 10 percentage points of search engine market share in 2023
Resolves YES if Google Search's market share drops by more than 10 percentage points between January 2023 and January 2024. Resolves NO otherwise. The preferred source to verify market share is Statcounter Global Stats (https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share); an alternative source may be used if there’s a good common-sense reason. Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!” Chamath Palihapitiya: I think that the biggest potential business loser this year is Google Search, as measured by your profitability and engagement. (…) There are five or six other organizations that are capable of crawling the entire web in terms of cost, in terms of compute, in terms of the quality of the Transformers and the quality of the AI. (…) I find it is hard to predict who will win because I think that with enough time and money, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, the Chinese internet companies can all compete, Facebook. (…) Well, so I think that Google could lose 10 or 15% of usage to all these other sites.
2023-02-14T01:55:28
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T18:28:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QtsgtUK3JQyxbKhkN73r
Will Tim Scott be the Republican Nominee for President in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-14T00:48:40
2024-08-06T08:10:37
2024-08-06T08:10:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-atJDt0u4cnfeFTjgDcus
Will the two teams playing in Super Bowl LVIII 2024 be teams that made the playoffs in 2023?
Playoff teams in the 2022-23 season were: NFC: Eagles, 49ers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants, Seahawks AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Chargers, Ravens, Dolphins Resolves YES if the two teams facing off in Super Bowl LVIII (2024) are from the lists above. Resolves NO otherwise. (Close date to be updated)
2023-02-13T21:28:17
2024-01-28T20:54:54
2024-01-28T20:54:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EPYqcKcZNULq9ZKXndLR
Will there be a deadly encounter between Chinese and Indian forces near the Line of Actual Control in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-13T19:23:45
2023-12-31T14:03:41
2023-12-31T14:03:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cIM4UT5j7E6mfNMnELjE
Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of May
Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by June 1. Resolves NO if not.
2023-02-13T18:14:28
2023-05-24T12:39:08
2023-05-24T12:39:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dnaHfANSEwijfYL0qGsw
Will Karine Jean-Pierre be White House Press Secretary at the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-13T17:53:24
2023-12-31T20:42:20
2023-12-31T20:42:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-A3nU3Dy9jSG4ZGk7jBmI
Will Bibi Netanyahu be the Prime Minister of Israel at the end of 2023?
[markets]
2023-02-13T17:51:44
2023-12-31T14:09:07
2023-12-31T14:09:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YpScHnuVcrPalMpD5Rtm
Will Disney sell their stake in Hulu by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-13T15:31:22
2023-12-31T20:08:22
2023-12-31T20:08:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-C34BAbJAYDQoyHTxdX7x
Will one of Biden, Trump, or DeSantis win the 2024 Presidential Race?
These three are the de facto front-runners. Is one of them going to win?
2023-02-13T11:27:58
2024-11-06T13:42:41
2024-11-06T13:42:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2hmV612lmb8xklmFZoa4
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $200 before $100?
Last price: 2024-Jun-07 $196.89 (will try to update major moves or every Friday after Nasdaq close) Resolves YES if AAPL trades >= $200 without having first traded <= $100 Resolves NO if AAPL trades <= $100 without having first traded >= $200 during any regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session after market creation (2023-Feb-12). Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2).
2023-02-12T09:19:33
2024-06-11T09:42:20
2024-06-11T09:42:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4aaRZP13BPEjVttjfKwL
Will Israel Adesanya beat Alex Pereira at UFC 287?
Alex Pereira is scheduled to fight Israel Adesanya at UFC 287 on the 8th of April, 2023, in Miami, Florida, USA. They will be fighting for the UFC Middleweight title. This would be their second fight under mma rules. If Adesanya wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Pereira wins, or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. If the fight is moved to a later date, I will change the question wording and resolve date to a new event and date.
2023-02-12T08:49:17
2023-04-08T21:54:38
2023-04-08T21:54:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Bd6U7aEx4WF0bOBxI20f
Will William MacAskill be a speaker at EA Global: London May 2023?
Follow-up on https://manifold.markets/Lorenzo/will-william-macaskill-speak-at-ea Resolves YES if I have credible evidence that William MacAskill was a speaker at EA Global: London May 2023 If he's announced as a speaker but cancels last minute this resolves as NO. If he does a fireside chat/Q&A this resolves YES. https://www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global/events/ea-global-london-2023
2023-02-12T04:55:18
2023-05-21T14:59:00
2023-05-21T16:16:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ikjdkYQ0lfUaju8t4iIx
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-12T00:20:44
2024-01-23T08:44:39
2024-01-23T08:44:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WKk4N94fkgFQGj6aVDgw
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_Mario_Bros._Movie
2023-02-11T23:28:00
2024-01-23T08:28:59
2024-01-23T08:28:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MNeY8nT88n4hqmJEmYO4
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-11T23:16:16
2023-11-13T09:48:24
2023-11-13T09:48:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rfsgzQKO38S9neMLmp4C
Will air quality in New Delhi, India improve in 2023?
Resolves based on https://www.iqair.com/india/delhi Feb 12, 9:29am: Will air quality in Delhi, India improve in 2023? → Will air quality in New Delhi, India improve in 2023?
2023-02-11T20:26:55
2024-01-03T09:08:37
2024-01-03T09:08:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-AYuOwAKus7NTQhIy3Swn
Will Taylor Swift release 1989 (Taylor's Version) in 2023?
It has been hinted at for awhile, but nothing has materialized recently. Timeline since "Taylor's Version" re-recordings were announced: April 2021: first re-recording, Fearless Sep. 2021: re-release of a song from 1989, "Wildest Dreams" Nov. 2021: second re-recording, Red (surprisingly not 1989) May 2022: re-release of a second song from 1989, "This Love" Oct. 2022: new album, Midnights General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
2023-02-11T13:35:56
2023-10-26T21:28:16
2023-10-26T21:28:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EtzdZVruB8MWDn22FrDl
Will Joe Biden or Kamala Harris participate in a mosh pit or go crowd surfing in 2023?
Any reliable reports or video or photographic evidence shall resolve this market YES.
2023-02-11T12:19:01
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T17:49:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OBL98uIFaXpfdTXNzRAn
Will 'Hogwarts Legacy' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?
If 'Hogwarts Legacy' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Hogwarts Legacy' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-02-11T12:12:10
2023-11-13T09:41:50
2023-11-13T09:41:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zj5yOeldB8sSr42s8ifr
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?
If 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-02-11T11:50:27
2023-11-13T09:42:27
2023-11-13T09:42:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DWYlNUfhFAM3yaYeubst
Will Russian Athletes be banned from the 2024 Olympics?
Will the International Olympic Committee ban Russian athletes (Even competing under a white flag, or as part of the ROC) from competing in the Paris 2024 Olympic Games? This market will get resolved when the IOC makes a final decision on the matter.
2023-02-11T03:41:16
2024-07-22T10:24:08
2024-07-22T10:24:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QkkvO8y4X2cPMT1e1CMs
Will Tim Scott announce he is running for the GOP nomination by the end of May?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-10T20:00:14
2023-05-22T09:20:32
2023-05-22T09:20:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PhcR6kk8aOF0oBdY1S6k
Is the Unidentified Car-sized Object over Alaska of Extraterrestrial origin?
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/us-object-alaska-balloon-china-car-pentagon-white-house-3271011
2023-02-10T19:20:45
2023-05-17T08:59:00
2023-05-17T16:14:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5QSqD0RLw07svIUKFkHC
Will Joe Biden forget what he was saying during an election debate before 2025?
Either primary or general election. I will resolve as N/A if he doesn't participate in a debate or there is strong controversy whether he forgot something or not.
2023-02-10T15:43:59
2024-07-21T15:30:32
2024-07-21T15:30:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-D3KbzrwoINtHQnCPINmx
Will Starship reach space before Vulcan?
Reaching an altitude of 100km counts as reaching space. The rockets don't need to get into orbit. The intention is for this market to be about the timing of the first flight of Vulcan vs the first OFT of a full stack Starship. Both are aiming to launch in March 2023.
2023-02-10T07:14:35
2023-11-18T06:40:26
2023-11-18T06:40:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ltOdjEnzuZSdLxXbcePy
Will GPT-4 be released to the general public before June?
Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. does not count. Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count. Any free or paid version of a release that is available to the general public before the end of May 31st (EST) counts (API, playground-only, embedded with a third party, etc.). However, if you have to know someone or be on a waitlist to get access to the release, etc., that does not count. The release must be branded as "GPT-4" or something substantially similar (e.g., "GpTfour", but not "ChatGPT-Plus"), and that information must be made public before the close date. Resolution based on my best judgment. I will not bet in this market.
2023-02-10T04:32:26
2023-03-14T14:24:36
2023-03-14T14:24:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-m5pSZiVDfuzdVy4SE8xr
Will Donald Trump be legally barred from running in the 2024 Presidential election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-09T17:54:08
2024-11-08T20:13:04
2024-11-08T20:13:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NPr2y8LEXBl5jvH6IC7Y
Will Google send Bard to the graveyard before 2024?
Google has announced their new Bard chat bot. Will it be sent to the infamous Google graveyard? Will resolve based on if killedbygoogle.com had it in their list.
2023-02-09T12:57:30
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T01:23:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-d3O1CQdkBoSeeRbOVYEP
Will Microsoft release a speaker with a GPT-4 based home assistant in 2023?
This market resolves to YES if Microsoft releases a home assistant speaker with a proprietary GPT-4+ powered chatbot (e.g. Cortana with GPT-4).
2023-02-09T12:22:06
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T06:38:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-p3xqHwRaPhEA3STSFr6p
Will any usable open-source chatbot be released this year?
For a YES resolution, I don't require it be competetive with the state of the art at the time. It must be comparable to chatgpt (not strictly as good as, but not far inferior), and I require it actually run on a single consumer GPU. Added March 19: this market does not use the strict OSI definition of open-source (which would forbid terms like "don't be evil"). It is sufficient if it is legal for one to use the bot for most purposes, including commercial purposes. Same idea as this market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottLawrence/will-laion-release-a-usable-chatbot)
2023-02-09T09:46:11
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-04-15T00:40:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YB7LbgCGq2zGrxansMBk
Will 'Top Gun: Maverick' win any Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards?
'Top Gun: Maverick' is nominated in 6 different categories at the 95th Academy Awards. If it wins at least one of them this market will resolve to YES. Categories in which it's nominated: Best Picture Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Song Best Sound Best Film Editing Best Visual Effects
2023-02-09T08:47:45
2023-03-12T19:55:49
2023-03-12T19:55:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-B0hhq6G1gGMJymgLWjgw
Will the Denver Broncos make it to the playoffs next year?
Resolves YES if the Broncos make it to the playoffs next season. They will btw
2023-02-09T08:28:00
2024-01-02T08:59:17
2024-01-02T08:59:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IKNBWDUCY3v8hLO3tQoa
Will Manchester City eliminate RB Leipzig at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League?
Resolves YES if Manchester City qualifies for the quarter-finals of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League. Notice that the current round of 16 is played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied, then 30 minutes of extra time is played, and if the score is still tied at the end of extra time, the winner are decided by a penalty shoot-out.
2023-02-09T08:26:32
2023-03-14T14:52:53
2023-03-14T14:52:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4QhJT3wy54MGi7eQF8zt
Will Real Madrid eliminate Liverpool at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League?
Resolves YES if Real Madrid qualifies for the quarter-finals of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League. Notice that the current round of 16 is played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied, then 30 minutes of extra time is played, and if the score is still tied at the end of extra time, the winner are decided by a penalty shoot-out.
2023-02-09T08:26:29
2023-03-15T14:54:19
2023-03-15T14:54:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-E3P8rFLuwStC7zkfumas
Will Chelsea eliminate Borussia Dortmund at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League?
Resolves YES if Chelsea qualifies for the quarter-finals of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League. Notice that the current round of 16 is played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied, then 30 minutes of extra time is played, and if the score is still tied at the end of extra time, the winner are decided by a penalty shoot-out.
2023-02-09T08:26:25
2023-03-07T14:10:22
2023-03-07T14:10:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5nKQdRVFut5osjp0E0Uk
Will Tottenham Hotspur eliminate AC Milan at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League?
Resolves YES if Tottenham Hotspur qualifies for the quarter-finals of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League. Notice that the current round of 16 is played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied, then 30 minutes of extra time is played, and if the score is still tied at the end of extra time, the winner are decided by a penalty shoot-out.
2023-02-09T08:26:12
2023-03-08T14:08:04
2023-03-08T14:08:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-prXrL7ugwTYrg4MxDfsa
Will Bayern Munich eliminate Paris Saint-Germain at 2022-23 UEFA Champions League?
Resolves YES if Bayern Munich qualifies for the quarter-finals of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League. Notice that the current round of 16 is played over two legs, with each team playing one leg at home. The team that scores more goals on aggregate over the two legs advances to the next round. If the aggregate score is tied, then 30 minutes of extra time is played, and if the score is still tied at the end of extra time, the winner are decided by a penalty shoot-out.
2023-02-09T08:25:57
2023-03-08T13:53:41
2023-03-08T13:53:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bNXHUfHP5p0CELvbuHzB
Will Destiny talk with MrGirl by the end of the year?
Resolves YES if he has a conversation on stream with MrGirl by market close
2023-02-09T08:13:01
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-02T17:19:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QQcYTDEWuufb3p6bMrhC
Will Destiny finish Hogwarts Legacy on stream before April 2023
Resolves YES if Destiny finishes (any%) Hogwarts Legacy publicly on stream. Resolves NO if he does not get to the end, never plays the game, or finishes it off-stream or on a hypothetical private/paywalled stream. Result determined by 00.00 GMT 01.04.23 or in the case of YES, when his public stream shows him finishing the game.
2023-02-09T04:48:02
2023-03-31T15:13:39
2023-03-31T15:13:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-obxvFvOp2rjvkpowV4gI
Will the UK commit fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of April?
Zelenskyy is really pressing hard on NATO. Someone had to give in, right?
2023-02-09T04:21:27
2023-04-30T20:59:00
2023-04-30T21:36:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Scfdsvw22nbnz5HKj0nx
Will the Miami Heat win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Miami Heat win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation. Market created with manifoldr.
2023-02-09T03:23:38
2023-06-13T05:35:13
2023-06-13T05:35:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3n13Itp3fELqN27x8DRb
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation. Market created with manifoldr.
2023-02-09T03:20:58
2023-05-24T03:54:04
2023-05-24T03:54:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iUC0UB5bb7tU6AwLa4Gd
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Los Angeles Lakers win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation. Market created with manifoldr.
2023-02-09T03:20:12
2023-05-24T03:54:39
2023-05-24T03:54:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-A9e53CeG8S5lBHK11ZTM
Will 'Mother 3' be officially released outside of Japan before 2025?
'Mother 3' was originally released in Japan for Game Boy Advance in 2006. It was re-released on the Wii U Virtual Console in Japan in 2015. This market will resolve YES if 'Mother 3' is officially released by Nintendo outside of Japan with a translation/localisation to any non-Japanese language before January 1st 2025. A digital release, such as through the Nintendo Switch Online service, would count for the purposes of this market.
2023-02-09T02:02:32
2025-01-01T02:08:58
2025-01-01T02:08:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vRb0gmEfsv1iRflshHgB
Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2023 hurricane season?
Must be cat 5 at time of landfall.
2023-02-09T01:42:37
2023-12-31T20:54:57
2023-12-31T20:54:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oNdMDlWwruHGjw6iR6aC
Will there be a Nintendo Direct in September 2023?
Only a Direct that shows upcoming Nintendo games or DLC counts. Close date updated to 2023-09-30 12:00 am
2023-02-08T21:33:26
2023-09-14T07:00:00
2023-09-14T15:10:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WF0AVYQwOGR8emhJ5zwW
Will there be a Nintendo Direct in August 2023?
Only a Direct that shows upcoming Nintendo games or DLC counts. Close date updated to 2023-08-31 12:00 am
2023-02-08T21:33:26
2023-08-30T05:00:00
2023-09-01T16:52:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lWUZfiTkanjylQqmIyRT
Will there be a Nintendo Direct in July 2023?
Only a Direct that shows upcoming Nintendo games or DLC counts. Close date updated to 2023-07-31 12:00 am
2023-02-08T21:33:25
2023-07-30T05:00:00
2023-08-01T16:48:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CrkgHuNO7ryv1ragtAXN
Will there be a Nintendo Direct in April 2023?
Only a Direct that shows upcoming Nintendo games or DLC counts. Close date updated to 2023-05-01 12:00 am
2023-02-08T21:33:22
2023-04-30T05:00:00
2023-05-01T05:12:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cJMjgDzKtRYPq1kBzvii
Will the Wikipedia page for "Turkey" be renamed to "Turkiye" by Jan 1 2025?
Also resolves yes if the name is "Republic of Turkiye" or similar. In the unlikely event that the page title contains both names, this resolves based on which one is primary. So "Turkey (Republic of Turkiye)" would resolve NO; "Turkiye (formerly Turkey)" would resolve yes. Background: a move request in Jan 2022 failed, but partly because "it's too soon". Close date updated to 2025-01-01 4:59 pm
2023-02-08T21:20:42
2025-01-01T15:59:00
2025-01-01T16:20:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gBkbueAQsp96S94DvYLR
Will Joe Biden announce whether he's running for President by 2023-06-01?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-08T20:17:28
2023-04-25T04:59:45
2023-04-25T04:59:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-aIksGF5tiJbIBJBfjVxl
Will Joe Biden announce whether he's running for President by 2023-05-01?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-08T19:17:28
2023-04-25T04:58:13
2023-04-25T04:58:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EbEh3C9ANwqBqfvJfBRE
Will Joe Biden announce whether he's running for President by 2023-04-01?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-08T19:00:04
2023-03-31T04:00:00
2023-04-02T01:12:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1VJ71EvYlsFgy5N2tdPG
Will SpaceX launch at least 3 Starships to space in 2023?
Any Starships that make it over 100 km in altitude are counted, even if they don't make it to orbit. Launches that don't make it over 100 km don't count. If the same Starship is launched twice, then it counts twice. If a Starship briefly makes it below 100km and then rises above it again, for example through a skip-reentry, this does not count twice as it's not an additional launch. If a Superheavy is launched over 100km by itself without a Starship, then it counts as a Starship. 2023 ends according to UTC. [image]
2023-02-08T17:37:45
2023-12-31T14:06:07
2023-12-31T14:06:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Xwb9DX09pwbsYaF3RRyY
Will "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom" win The Game Award's 2023 game of the year?
Resolves N/A either if The Game Awards doesn't happen this year or if Tears of the Kingdom is not eligible due to game delays.
2023-02-08T17:15:43
2023-12-07T20:04:09
2023-12-07T20:04:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RqGtIhdmOOOlqZ9qiAiE
Will the first question at the first GOP Primary Debate be directed at Donald Trump?
Will they give him the honor as the former guy? Should be in early August.
2023-02-08T17:15:17
2023-08-28T14:02:20
2023-08-28T14:02:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yTDBoyH5RVnagyDw9nnk
Will there be a deadly military conflict between Russian and NATO armed forces in 2023?
Resolves YES if in 2023 kinetic military action takes place between Russian and NATO armed forces, causing at least 1 fatality. Resolves NO otherwise. Resolution details Must be between armed forces on both sides, a military attack on civilians does not count. Both accidental or intentional conflict will count for this question. Kinetic military action is defined as one involving gunfire or explosives - which does include strikes by drones, aircraft, missiles, artillery, etc. Cyberattacks would not count towards question resolution. I will use resolution criteria of similar Metaculus questions such as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/russia-and-non-us-nato-clash-by-2024/. Determination of which armed forces were combatants and whether it caused at least one fatality will be based on reliable media reporting. If the identity of the combatants is not known with certainty, it counts if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% credence that it was.
2023-02-08T16:57:02
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:11:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MWYzyYKSHakOijywU7Cd
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' get Metascore greater than 90?
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is a sequel to the 2017 videogame The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild. Tears of the Kingdom retains many aspects of its predecessor, including the open-world environment of Hyrule, which is expanded to allow for more vertical exploration. Metascore is a popular ranking of games, movies, shows and music based on a weighted average of the world's most respected critics. This market will be resolve one week after the game's release on May 12, based on the game's metascore on May 19: https://www.metacritic.com/game/switch/the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-kingdom [image]Close date updated to 2023-05-19 4:59 pm
2023-02-08T14:23:35
2023-05-19T12:13:19
2023-05-19T12:13:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5KS9Fl26jrnf4IJuT2uw
Will either Alphabet (GOOG) or Microsoft (MSFT) have a higher market cap than Apple (AAPL) by the end of 2023?
"By" meaning at close. doesn't resolve before then
2023-02-08T14:00:05
2023-12-31T07:58:37
2023-12-31T07:58:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fSn7fjgZbNzoQv4s1Teu
Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger during 2023?
Resolves YES if there is an earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or larger reported in https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m8-world.php
2023-02-08T12:42:39
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-02T06:12:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QI2M66j0kiHIQcyIvfPB
Will GPT be used to help write one of Biden's speeches in his first term?
This market resolves YES if the following conditions hold: Someone writes a speech for Joe Biden (including Biden himself) Biden gives said speech It is revealed that said speech was written with the assistance of GPT, or any sufficiently similar technology It doesn't matter to what degree GPT was used, it could even be just for a single sentence or phrase, so long as someone credibly confirms that it was used at all This must happen (the writing of the speech, the giving of the speech, and the revelation of assistance) while Biden is still president, and during his first term of presidency. In the event Biden is re-elected and this market has not resolved YES, I will post a duplicate market for his second term.
2023-02-08T08:30:48
2025-01-20T09:59:00
2025-01-20T11:45:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX
Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?
Will get resolved YES if Destiny writes and publishes a manifesto publically before Dec 31st 2023, 23:59. Will get resolved NO if Destiny does not write and publish a manifesto publically before Dec 31st 2023, 23:59. Market will close at 23:59, Dec 31st, 2023. Edit: If Destiny calls it a manifesto, it's a manifesto. If the community calls it a manifesto and it quickly gets a name similar to the "N-word Manifesto" like e.g. "The Mr. Girl Manifesto", it's a manifesto. Even if Destiny explicitly says it is not a manifesto but the community calls it a manifesto, it's a manifesto. If neither Destiny or the community call it a manifesto, then it's not a manifesto. To ensure that there is enough time for the community to "come up" with a name for the publication, I will close the market as soon as I hear about it. Then I will wait 1 week to resolve. I am active on the subreddit and watch the streams/videos. I will resolve accordingly. Disclaimer: My subjective experience about the name of the publication will be the deciding factor. Any posts/comments on Manifold will not affect my decision. You can however discuss the rules and I may be convinced to alter them.
2023-02-08T01:56:53
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T09:17:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wIVz9idYdCMJBZbGDyhI
Will it be known and widely accepted in 2023 that the union-closed conjecture is true?
This celebrated conjecture (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union-closed_sets_conjecture) has seen some recent breakthroughs and a (not yet peer-reviewed) proof has been claimed on arxiv on February 6 2023 (https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.03484) EDIT - retracted. Will be resolved as YES if a proof is discussed and accepted by expert mathematicians in a blog post or communicated at a major maths conference. I expect the recent arxiv proof, if incorrect, will be refuted pretty quickly and discussed by mathematicians online.
2023-02-08T00:38:27
2024-01-01T10:29:00
2024-01-01T10:54:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UaepOGyORitUD14q9zU4
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 United States presidential election?
The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled for November 5th 2024. If Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina, wins the election (wins enough electoral college votes to be elected President) this market will resolve to YES.
2023-02-08T00:30:41
2024-11-09T12:22:39
2024-11-09T12:22:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kPmfnPQrwTWK57wOlbPk
Will Microsoft monetize the Bing AI chatbot in 2023?
Monetization means they are able to make money directly from the chatbot feature. Examples of this include sponsored links within the response, the chatbot promoting certain products, and some sort of subscription service which unlocks extra chatbot features.
2023-02-07T21:05:00
2023-05-15T20:52:28
2023-05-15T20:52:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wOmu9FRv7DA2DncDM8vf
Will Hello Internet upload a new episode by 2024?
The podcast Hello Internet, hosted by CGP Grey and Brady Haran, has been on hiatus since February 2020. Will there be a new episode by the end of this year? Resolves YES if any content with the voices of both Brady and Grey is uploaded onto the Hello Internet RSS feed at HelloInternet.fm. Resolves NO if not
2023-02-07T16:40:09
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-05T21:16:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ppxL2zTRXkao85rQTXSw
Will San Francisco's rents increase in 2023?
This market will resolve based on data from: https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/san-francisco-ca/ Specifically, will median rents in Dec 2023 be higher than in Dec 2022 As of the posting of this market, Dec 2022 median rents were listed as follows: [image]
2023-02-07T13:54:47
2024-01-06T05:01:37
2024-01-06T05:01:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ayVTcb9JixTaloHsTV5Z
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart in 2023?
If there is a song created primarily by a ML/AI system that's present in the year-end top 100 list by billboard, for the year 2023, then this market resolves YES, otherwise NO. Evidence for the song being significantly AI-generated can be an official blog-post by the group that created that song, or in the song credits, statements by publishing entities, etc.
2023-02-07T13:31:40
2023-12-31T02:00:00
2024-01-02T17:16:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hWaRKtGSnNEyCZX1GLYR
Will CGP Grey make a video that references prediction markets before the end of 2024?
https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos Resolves YES if any CGP Grey video includes a reference to prediction markets, a specific prediction market, or something related to prediction markets, even if it's just an easter egg or offhand comment. See also @/IsaacKing/will-cgp-grey-make-a-video-about-pr
2023-02-07T13:10:00
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-02T12:14:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-E9hLhWz9dYi2yLK8v7DL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 before 2040?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-07T10:22:56
2025-01-18T21:30:58
2025-01-18T21:30:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4kIosidwVaICItxaC6O8
Will CGP Grey reach 6 million Youtube subscribers by the end of 2023?
https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos
2023-02-07T09:49:45
2023-11-01T08:21:03
2023-11-01T08:21:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pRNbAuObLUP1zxlnwm4w
By 2025, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?
https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/
2023-02-07T08:44:34
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-02-13T12:08:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Pp8EjVS10QC0WWH9vQ5s
Will Manchester City get relegated from the Premier League?
Relegation from the Premier League is a real possibility for Manchester City if alleged rule breaches are found proven, talkSPORT has been told.
2023-02-07T08:22:07
2023-07-31T14:59:00
2023-08-01T02:20:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TL5pYGbHUTncrwDL7KaS
Will Ron Desantis be outed as gay by the end of 2024?
This guy takes homophobia to another level. Hard to believe it's purely political motivated. Trump loves to insinuate he had dirt on the governor so let's speculate here... Resolves based on credible accusation.
2023-02-07T07:46:51
2024-12-31T12:30:03
2024-12-31T12:30:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wVXTusHdqJq00P88i4va
Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2024
Resolves YES if #1 he is convicted of a crime, and #2 is sent to prison by December 1st, 2024. He must be physically at the prison to resolve YES.
2023-02-07T07:44:28
2023-11-12T06:18:37
2023-11-12T06:18:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Uc5euRmaiHpO7ImWZst3
Will Destiny start a League of Legends game on stream before July 1st, 2023?
Market will get resolved YES if he queues up and gets into a League of Legends game on his YT stream before July 1st, 2023. Market will get resolved NO if he does not queue up and get into a League of Legends game on his YT stream before July 1st, 2023.
2023-02-07T06:39:24
2023-06-30T15:00:00
2023-07-09T08:28:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QV80YTgppmvC5mZXnc1U
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen pass away in 2023 ?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-07T06:02:51
2023-12-31T22:30:00
2024-01-01T17:00:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sRMJza41aToG9R66fgBI
Will CGP Grey join Manifold by the end of 2023?
https://www.youtube.com/@CGPGrey/videos
2023-02-07T03:09:02
2023-04-02T04:56:48
2023-04-02T04:56:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-A3wk5bS5zPsOFYRMDbDG
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyj still be alive by the end of 2023?
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 12:59 am
2023-02-07T00:23:41
2023-12-30T15:59:00
2023-12-31T22:03:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs
Will Rafael Nadal win another Grand Slam before his retirement?
Start date: Feb 7, end date: Rafa retires. Will he win a GS again? I hope he does. Will update the close date if required. If Rafa retires and comes out of retirement to win a GS, that doesnt count.
2023-02-06T21:46:17
2024-11-21T03:12:18
2024-11-21T03:12:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-N8ehet6R4lSuG3eLc8Zn
Will Manchester City finish with a top 5 position in the Premier League during the 2022-2023 season?
"Manchester City have been charged by the Premier League over breaking financial rules across nine seasons, the league announced on Monday. The Premier League confirmed that a number of alleged breaches between the 2009-10 and 2017-18 seasons have been referred to an independent commission with the conclusion of a four-year investigation. The commission will be held in private and can impose open-ended sanctions, which could include fines, points deductions or relegation from the Premier League." - ESPN Given the potential penalties that Manchester City faces (including the deduction of points or relegation), will the team finish in a top 5 position in the Premier League (as measured by points accumulated)? This question will resolve positively if the Premier League website (https://www.premierleague.com/) does not (EDIT: see below) list Manchester City as having a top 5 position. EDIT: the final sentence in the original description seems to contradict the question title and previous sentences in the description. To clarify, this question will resolve YES if the Premier League website lists Man City in the top 5 by the end of the 2022-2023 season. The market will resolve NO otherwise. It seems like most people interpreted the question in this way.
2023-02-06T20:25:37
2023-05-24T16:03:43
2023-05-24T16:03:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-w7mgOwX99p2S4JSJsRkd
Will Republicans in Alaska succeed in revoking ranked choice voting in the 2024 election?
There's an attempt to get this on the ballot for 2024. This market resolves YES if: Prominent Alaska Republicans support it It actually gets on the ballot The measure succeeds Otherwise it resolves NO at the expiration date, or if it becomes clear earlier that it won't happen (ie not enough signatures are gathered and the deadline to get in the ballot passes) Court cases / injunctions are irrelevant for this market's purposes
2023-02-06T17:28:43
2024-11-23T07:11:00
2024-11-23T07:11:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QznOqrkeao8vTLBVtYbt
Will Google search default to a chatbot like interface by end of 2024?
In an article (https://medium.com/@owenyin/scoop-oh-the-things-youll-do-with-bing-s-chatgpt-62b42d8d7198) on the upcoming Bing changes, we see the following image: [image]Bing is pivoting to AI chatbot based search as the default. Will Google follow suit and also pivot to AI chat based search as the default by the end of 2024? I will not be looking at worldwide, but judging it from the default American Google user experience.
2023-02-06T15:39:45
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-02T19:59:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rHaLOwDCYaxbkGu4oyQW
Will Destiny play a game with Lilypichu by June?
Resolves YES if Destiny plays a "game" with Lilypichu by market close. A "game" is qualified by a mulitplayer game that is actively livestreamed. If a situation where the "game" they play is argueably a game but controversal, I will have the last say where I gather the popular opinion and what I see fit. An example of a game I wouldn't count is Got Rhythm, but I would count a game like chess. You can ask any clarifying questions if you'd like.
2023-02-06T13:05:47
2023-05-31T14:00:00
2023-05-31T18:26:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3w0YLC4rgAGNSDlPonyJ
Will Apple show their Apple Silicon Mac Pro at or before WWDC 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-06T09:20:37
2023-06-05T12:12:26
2023-06-05T12:12:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-U8FlaoeI0VJzxptdIDqC
Will Apple release an Apple Silicon Mac Pro in 2023?
Must be available for purchase and in customer hands.
2023-02-06T09:18:43
2023-06-17T07:36:20
2023-06-17T07:36:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XeEt9xPkVcG5tXLhBOxj
Will an MDMA-Assisted Therapy for Treatment of PTSD be approved by the FDA before the summer of 2024?
Resolves YES if the FDA announces the approval of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD before June 21, 2024. For context "MAPS PBC expects to submit the new drug application to the FDA in the third quarter of 2023." (https://mapspublicbenefit.com/press-releases/maps-pbc-announces-positive-results-from-confirmatory-phase-3-mapp2-trial/) Feb 6, 10:21am: Will an MDMA-Assisted Therapy for Treatment of PTSD be approved by the FDA before the spring of 2024? → Will an MDMA-Assisted Therapy for Treatment of PTSD be approved by the FDA before the summer of 2024? Close date updated to 2024-06-20 11:59 pm
2023-02-06T07:17:59
2024-06-20T20:59:00
2024-06-23T16:36:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YcgzoagwCV5K3B6zeqci
Will Destiny get unbanned on Twitch before August 1st, 2023?
Will be resolved YES if the twitch channel www.twitch.tv/destiny is unbanned on twitch.tv before August 1st, 2023. Will be resolved NO if the twitch channel www.twitch.tv/destiny is not unbanned on twitch.tv before August 1st, 2023. When the channel gets unbanned and banned again before August 1st, 2023, this will still get resolved as YES.
2023-02-06T03:22:42
2023-07-31T15:00:00
2023-07-31T23:48:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4G3CjG09nSl6GgLqXp9l
Will NAATU NAATU from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose win the Oscars for original song ?
Will NAATU NAATU from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose win the Oscars for an original song? Will this song able to win the 95th Oscars for original song. Which has already won Golden Globe this year https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vktceH8ZA0&ab_channel=LahariMusicTelugu%7CT-Series https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wnvsua9MFOg&ab_channel=WitokTv Resolves when the winner is announced
2023-02-06T02:37:22
2023-03-12T19:56:32
2023-03-12T19:56:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-w1vgL07T7LZfqtPOJzDR
Will any high-profile, pro-regime Russians be arrested or killed by Russian actors in 2023?
There has been plenty of talk about splits within the Russian elites. While the consensus is that it's very unlikely they will turn against Putin anytime soon, in-fighting might be increasing. In this context, the market asks about the probability that top-profile Russians will be "get rid of", either through arrests or physical elimination, by their rivals. With "high-profile russians", in this case I mean top officials (e.g. federal ministers, regional governors, top-level security service officials), top oligarchs (think Prigozhin or Deripaska), or public figures (like Dugin or Strelkov/Girkin). I explicitely do not mean anyone associated with the opposition (e.g. Navalny). There have to be good reasons to think that the act was a result of inter-elite strife. In particular (by elimination), natural causes of death, accidents, suicide or Ukrainian special operations have to be at least very unlikely explanations. This necessarily implies the resolution will be partly subjective; feel free to ask about any scenarios. Some examples of events leading to a positive resolution: the violent death of Prigozhin without a meaningful Ukrainian trail; the arrest of defense minister Shoigu on charges of corruption. An example of an unsifficient event: the killing of Darya Dugina. She did not meet the "top-profile" criteria, and there is a link to a Ukrainian operation that doesn't seem to be spurious.
2023-02-06T02:33:33
2023-08-01T01:37:50
2023-08-01T01:37:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Cq2ycbx2sOqSBvVllBPM
Will there be a Luigi main in the top 50 of the 2023 Super Smash Bros Melee year-end player rankings?
If there is a Luigi main in the top 50 of the 2023 SSBMRank or equivalent successor ranking system, this market resolves to YES. Only Luigi mains count for the purposes of this question, so players who have Luigi explicitly listed as secondaries rather than mains (e.g. the way Ben and Kurv had Luigi listed as secondaries on the 2022 rankings) do not count for the purposes of this question. If Luigi is listed as one of the player's co-mains that on the other hand does count. For reference: https://liquipedia.net/smash/SSBMRank
2023-02-05T21:41:46
2024-01-26T17:53:30
2024-01-26T17:53:30
no
MANIFOLD