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forecasting

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mani-1dneI3swcE01o6bZj5L8
Will 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' win more Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards than any other movie?
'Everything Everywhere All at Once' is nominated for more oscars, 11 across 10 categories, than any other movie at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins more Oscars than any other individual movie on the night. It will resolve to NO if any other individual movie wins the same amount or more Oscars compared to EEAAO on the night.
2023-02-05T21:19:55
2023-03-12T20:36:43
2023-03-12T20:36:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lu5YN9q3c9RfZD1ZVVVS
Will the german government last until the next election?
Resolves Yes, if the current SPD/Greens/FDP government does not dissolve until the next planned election. If there is a new coalition agreement (Koalitionsvertrag) before the next planned election, this resolves no. Close date updated to 2025-10-25 1:59 am
2023-02-05T18:02:50
2024-12-22T16:40:03
2024-12-22T16:40:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y3zpTJtHyntUiLVpYcOv
Will the EU AI Act enter into force by end of 2024?
This will resolve YES if the Artificial Intelligence Act enters into force by end of 2024 (Brussels time). Otherwise this will resolve NO. The AI Act will go into force 20 days after it's publication. The Artificial Intelligence Act is a regulation proposed by the European Commission that aims to establish a common regulatory framework for artificial intelligence across all sectors, excluding military. It classifies AI applications based on their risk level and regulates them accordingly, with low-risk applications facing the least amount of regulation. Medium to high-risk AI applications would require conformity assessment before being put on the market, while some applications such as remote biometric recognition and social credit scoring would face a ban or authorisation requirements. The AI Act is sometimes compared to the GDPR in its scope and global ambition.
2023-02-05T14:58:06
2024-07-22T01:50:07
2024-07-22T01:50:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-V7hSzPUgGohqwYICLXeI
Will fed target rates be lower at the end of 2023 than they were in the beginning?
Beginning of 2023 the target rates were 4.25-4.5%, the last FOMC meeting of 2023 will be December 12-13, 2023. The market will resolve “YES” if after the last meeting the target rates will be 4.00-4.25% or lower. Clarification: if rate is 4.25-4.5% then it is not lower and will resolve "NO."
2023-02-05T11:59:50
2023-12-14T23:59:00
2023-12-16T00:31:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xYaqf5nYiDUtZBom7j15
Will a Democrat win the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?
Incumbent governor Andy Beshears (Democrat) is running.
2023-02-05T11:50:19
2023-11-07T10:59:00
2023-11-07T23:19:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-twhvTrMCdUJF7uP2uhhU
Will the EU AI Act enter into force 2023?
This will resolve YES if the Artificial Intelligence Act enters into force by end of 2023. Otherwise this will resolve NO. The AI Act will go into force 20 days after it's publication. The Artificial Intelligence Act is a regulation proposed by the European Commission that aims to establish a common regulatory framework for artificial intelligence across all sectors, excluding military. It classifies AI applications based on their risk level and regulates them accordingly, with low-risk applications facing the least amount of regulation. Medium to high-risk AI applications would require conformity assessment before being put on the market, while some applications such as remote biometric recognition and social credit scoring would face a ban or authorisation requirements. The AI Act is sometimes compared to the GDPR in its scope and global ambition.
2023-02-05T10:44:41
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T10:31:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-syHiDBaU7Yvmvn2hDja7
Will Lee "Faker" Sang-hyeok ever win League of Legends Worlds again?
Resolves to "yes" as soon as Faker wins worlds again (team doesnt matter). Resolves to "no" as soon as Faker retires from professional League of Legends. https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/Faker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Legends_World_Championship
2023-02-05T08:07:32
2023-11-20T15:10:16
2023-11-20T15:10:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-v2B2bNMKHeFikYqwZ4w6
Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican 2024 nominee?
Close date updated to 2024-08-02 12:59 pm
2023-02-05T01:04:37
2024-05-01T19:19:28
2024-05-01T19:19:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M73Yb4Pl4dFVC3z7vZIT
Will Lex Fridman make an exclusive content deal with Twitter by the end of 2023?
Musk should seriously consider taking a Spotify approach to acquiring content that will thrive with his gigachad demo. Something like the JRE deal is what I am thinking.
2023-02-04T18:57:42
2023-12-31T20:55:46
2023-12-31T20:55:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7rAnT1ZdRFbp0TZauLcp
Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024?
Feb 4, 9:45pm: Will there be a third party candidate that receives an electoral college vote in 2024? → Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024?
2023-02-04T18:44:13
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T05:01:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-u6w5tVk5tTWnzyQ2QJkV
Will Donald Trump debate Mike Pence during the 2024 GOP primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-04T18:43:04
2023-10-28T11:54:53
2023-10-28T11:54:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IAFCIse2ctr4Y0cVtmuO
Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a presidential debate together during the 2024 election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-04T18:39:12
2024-06-27T18:06:32
2024-06-27T18:06:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Ly4iKmUsrNVREDzV4mgl
Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 50bps in March?
March 21-22
2023-02-04T16:55:31
2023-03-22T10:00:00
2023-03-22T11:02:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CTbjyfbG6eS0qQD3TbYo
Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 25bps in March?
March 21-22
2023-02-04T16:55:11
2023-03-22T10:00:00
2023-03-22T11:01:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TiUdxGs8Qx6Tgagb2vW1
Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters?
When researching GPT-4 speculations, the estimated parameter count ranged anywhere from 175 billion (same as GPT-3) to over 100 trillion. This market will resolve YES if GPT-4 has over 1 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO. The market close date will be indefinitely extended until an official figure for the total number of trainable parameters of the largest released model at initial release has been announced.
2023-02-04T16:11:36
2024-03-19T17:21:18
2024-03-19T17:21:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WcS27RHmvh2txbuKDv3C
Will H5N1 kill more than 10 thousand people in 2023?
This question resolves to YES if during the early months of 2024, a consensus of credible scientific estimates indicate that Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 killed more than 10 thousand people worldwide in the year 2023. A consensus is defined as unanimity among all highly credible scientific publications that presently exist at that time. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
2023-02-04T15:28:43
2024-01-01T23:59:00
2024-01-02T11:07:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZeGRicgTrdBYzaD6hGH7
Will there be fighting in Crimea this year?
If there is a front in Crimea at any stage before 1st Jan 2024 I will resolve YES. This is only for fighting on land between conventional armies. Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc will not count as fighting. By Crimea I mean the Crimean peninsula: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea.
2023-02-04T09:44:34
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T19:35:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ijUWyRXP0u6TatubqxNJ
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 40 people in the US during 2023?
Resolution Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States
2023-02-04T09:12:33
2023-12-30T13:09:11
2023-12-30T13:09:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KC4vEWjEiAqpjPZHpUKI
Will Russian and Ukraine still be fighting in June 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-04T05:35:46
2024-06-30T16:59:00
2024-07-06T13:23:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5WNrlmU860h0gDQXGETy
Will there be more than 25 Million international travelers to Japan in 2023?
Based on Japan National Tourism Organisation statistics, which in turn are based on Ministry of Justice arrivals data. https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/ These figures do not include arrivals in Japan of permanent residents of Japan or Japanese nationals. If the JNTO reports that more than 25 million people traveled to Japan in 2023, this market resolves to YES. Previous years: 2014: 13.4M 2015: 19.7M 2016: 24.0M 2017: 28.6M 2018: 31.1M 2019: 31.8M 2020: 4.1M 2021: 0.2M
2023-02-04T02:49:25
2024-02-16T01:58:24
2024-02-16T01:58:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-N3HoU1vZPhtICznnWTOA
Will a Dr. Mario player be in the top 40 of the 2023 Super Smash Bros Melee year-end top 100 player rankings?
If there is a Dr. Mario player in the top 40 of the 2023 SSBMRank or equivalent successor ranking system, this market resolves to YES. Any Dr. Mario representation counts for the purposes of this market, so players that have Dr. Mario listed as a main count, but players who have Dr. Mario specifically listed as one of their secondaries by the published rankings also counts. For reference: https://liquipedia.net/smash/SSBMRank
2023-02-04T00:25:53
2024-01-26T17:54:02
2024-01-26T17:54:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-U0CiMuLnhHbr3xawsUiw
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2024?
If you're trading in this market, consider also helping me understand this market's likely biases: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/how-much-do-traders-discount-my-mar
2023-02-04T00:15:10
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-02T01:48:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f76aoTPmFIjkeNjgUoq9
Will public Google Chat launch a chatbot serving LLM responses by the end of June 2023?
This market resolves positively if a Google-created Chatbot available in external Google Chat has public documentation that indicates that a LLM serves at least some of the responses. Need not be LaMDA. Must be a chatbot (you chat it, it chats back), not a feature like Smart Reply.
2023-02-03T15:08:40
2023-06-30T16:59:00
2023-07-12T09:58:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0m1xQaqBGXV1FbjLE0g3
Will 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 before the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-03T14:46:12
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T17:04:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ojjMvEON6doAuYO0NgvW
Will 10,000 people die of H5N1 before the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-03T14:44:46
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T17:02:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CwmGK0w7RdVTRzkr56Zd
Will 10,000 people die of H5N1 in 2023?
Will at least 10,000 human beings die of H5N1 before the end of 2023?
2023-02-03T14:44:25
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T08:38:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v9lpDbWyt0YfQQwl2uXn
Will the US retract its assessment that the Chinese balloon circling Montana was a spy vehicle by end of February?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/blinken-trip-to-china-postponed-after-spy-balloon-spotted-over-u-s-11675437406?st=1yde61agpkt4kvn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
2023-02-03T11:55:31
2023-03-01T23:59:00
2023-03-02T00:06:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fP1A0ixxnGbBZGJ6W68v
Will Destiny miss a whole week of streaming this year?
Resolves YES if Destiny doesn't stream for 7 days straight (168 hours) by market close. Going on someone elses stream would count, but going on someones podcast that isn't live doesn't count.
2023-02-03T08:24:09
2023-12-31T14:00:00
2024-01-02T17:19:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FjyS4XzEaakjyWOVCSmo
Will Destiny be alive by 2024?
Resolves YES if Steven "Destiny" Bonnell is alive on Jan 1st, 2024
2023-02-03T08:20:56
2024-01-01T14:00:00
2024-01-02T17:19:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qiRlFG0NyUIYK0bjVBlZ
Will the unemployment rate in the US increase in February?
This market will resolve to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the US for February 2023, published monthly at https://www.bls.gov/cps/home.htm The unemployment rate in January 2023 was 3.4%. The Employment Situation for February is scheduled to be released on March 10, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. (ET). [image]
2023-02-03T07:53:39
2023-03-10T14:59:00
2023-03-11T03:18:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NYbEzW0akG6wtRA5mQBi
Will Destiny and Aella hangout in person by August 11th?
Destiny and Aella have been engaging in multiple conversations on stream. They seem to have a good relationship and good conversation.
2023-02-03T07:45:41
2023-08-11T20:59:00
2023-09-01T15:31:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GIsRhbf9qdYYNRilM1vG
Will 1 EUR buy more than 1 USD at the end of 2023?
Using the European Central Bank reference rate at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html, resolved early January when the last rate of the year has been posted.
2023-02-03T05:44:43
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-03T03:38:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-r7kvoiwMxWynuBXOGCMR
Will it still be possible to use the twitter API for free on March 9 2023?
[tweet]Resolves Yes if it's still possible to use the twitter API for free one month after the new pricing policy is in place. The free tier needs to be available to the general public (e.g. special free tier for students or special categories does not count) Feb 12, 12:55am: Will it be possible to sign up for the twitter API free tier on March 9 2023? → Will it still be possible to use the twitter API for free on March 9 2023?
2023-02-03T05:37:19
2023-03-09T15:59:00
2023-03-09T18:17:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZPqy82onLSYOwhyJ9ucc
Will Mike Pompeo be the next GOP nominee for Vice President?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-03T01:27:46
2024-07-15T12:30:55
2024-07-15T12:30:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QS6T95GJQYaYqya5fww4
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Lightweight Champion at the end of 2023?
This market will resolve to YES if Islam Makhachev is the current title holder at 23:59 Dec 31, UTC+00:00. It will resolve to NO if he is not. If there happens to be an event held on that night, the title is presumed to have changed hands when the announcer says the line beginning with "And new".
2023-02-02T22:44:37
2023-12-31T16:54:53
2023-12-31T16:54:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ItNy6Uv0q9D9qEnrsQ0o
Will a Chinese Spy Balloon be shot down over the continental US in 2023?
See ABC / CNN. Must be reported by a major US news outlet to count. The balloon can be this balloon or another, as long as the outlet reports are confident that it is from China. Close date updated to 2023-02-04 4:02 pm Close date updated to 2023-12-31 4:02 pm After consideration, I will not consider any shoot downs where the balloon lands off the coast to count, but I will consider it to count if it lands in a lake or river within US territory. Some further clarifications in light of recent news: Frozen ocean water will be considered "ocean" and so will not count. Also, dirigibles and any other objects which are primarily supported by buoyancy will be considered balloons.
2023-02-02T20:06:57
2023-12-31T14:02:00
2023-12-31T15:01:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LDrguWkJhkpRIzXMT4d7
Will any corporate quantum computing team publicly report the implementation of 2 or more simultaneous 2-qubit gates with average gate fidelity of at least 99.9% before Feb 2024?
For resolution criteria, I'm thinking that some informal poll of experts find the results believable, lacking any obvious flaws or omissions. Even better if the data are made public so we can do an independent analysis. I think the usual fidelity criteria allow us to ignore SPAM errors, but I'm not 100% sure. Might update after going back to check. Feb 2, 8:26pm: Will any quantum computing company publicly report the implementation of 2 or more simultaneous 2-qubit gates with average gate fidelity of at least 99.9% before Feb 2024? → Will any corporate quantum computing team publicly report the implementation of 2 or more simultaneous 2-qubit gates with average gate fidelity of at least 99.9% before Feb 2024?
2023-02-02T17:25:04
2024-01-31T20:59:00
2024-02-01T04:20:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BSR9JdIkNpp1axYhxmWP
Will Aella stop identifying as a libertarian by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-02T15:44:18
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-03T18:27:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9oYpIzwjFYO5q8Tf2tha
Will Elon Musk have more than 200 million Twitter followers at the end of 2024
Will resolve to No if he doesn't have a Twitter account at time of resolution, including temporarily. Will resolve to N/A if it is not possible to know the number of followers (if say the number of followers stops being displayed on Twitter).
2023-02-02T13:48:27
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-01T11:29:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WU3bk4fnec8VGCF2TGKM
Will the groundhog see its shadow on Groundhog's Day 2024?
Groundhog Day "is a popular North American tradition observed in the United States and Canada on February 2. It derives from the Pennsylvania Dutch superstition that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day and sees its shadow due to clear weather, it will retreat to its den, and winter will go on for six more weeks; if it does not see its shadow because of cloudiness, spring will arrive early." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day) Resolves YES if the official groundhog from Punxsutawney, PA (Punxsutawney Phil) sees its shadow on February 2, 2024: https://www.visitpa.com/live-stream-phils-prediction
2023-02-02T08:13:56
2024-02-02T05:19:35
2024-02-02T05:19:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6paLsuctGG3SqZAx5doO
Will apple announce a foldable ipad or iphone by 2024?
Will applle formally announce a foldable ipad or iphone by the start of 2024
2023-02-02T00:10:53
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-03T03:48:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Cj76S8IZNzi3WuNssJ9w
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2023
This market only resolves to YES if Ukraine is declared the undisputed winner of Eurovision 2023. Any other cases (including, but not limited to: another nation's victory, a tie, or failure to submit an entry) resolve the market to NO.
2023-02-01T21:01:42
2023-05-13T20:59:00
2023-05-16T10:58:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8kkeHAlytvxHXjZD2h8F
Will the COVID emergency in the US end on (or before) May 11?
Joe Biden's administration recently said it will end COVID-19 emergency declarations on May 11. Biden also said to a reporter that the emergency will end "when the Supreme Court ends it", suggesting that the plan is to find a reason to extend the emergency yet again by May. Will the COVID emergency end on (or before) May 11? Resolution notes: The market should resolve on June 1. If there is a new emergency by the end of May, this will resolve as "NO". If Congress overrides Biden to end the emergency on (or before) May 11, this will resolve as "YES". Anything described as a << partial lifting >> on May 11 in the media will be subject to discretion, but would probably resolve as "NO".
2023-02-01T15:11:41
2023-05-16T22:19:31
2023-05-16T22:21:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-alUTPs8bmEq0PzGFZLnL
Will an AI assistant be able book flights for me by the end of 2023?
The AI can ask me questions (to the degree a reasonable human assistant would) but will otherwise take care of everything. Must be a general purpose AI, not just specialised for this one task.
2023-02-01T15:06:10
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T17:12:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tVxYjSc4SkrF9C9kahxy
Will Destiny be involved in a drama by end of March?
The drama must atleast somewhat directly involve him personally and be decently major. It's obvious I'm being very ambigous, but I'll try my best to judge fairly. I wont bet
2023-02-01T14:27:23
2023-03-15T09:18:19
2023-03-15T09:18:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HzPZ6TBHSRDYYrDD3pUN
Will the Sneako bridge burn before October 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-02-01T13:20:29
2023-07-29T07:13:01
2023-07-29T07:13:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jU8NEFvgsdtQuutnZXPS
Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate in the March 2023 meeting?
How will the Fed set the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, March 21-22 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate, otherwise NO. Related (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-9a9982dba5ce)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-fed-lower-the-fed-funds-ra)
2023-02-01T12:34:56
2023-03-22T13:58:59
2023-03-22T13:58:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GbZGIXZHkd01daNmCSBv
Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 50 bps in the March 2023 meeting?
How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, March 21-22 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO Related (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-b7103e6f1fbf)
2023-02-01T12:33:37
2023-03-22T13:59:10
2023-03-22T13:59:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pnndtaLYc8iLjLDUFoYU
2023: Will Elon Musk quit one of his CEO jobs?
This will resolve to YES, if in year 2023 (ET timezone), Elon Musk is no longer the CEO of Twitter, Tesla or SpaceX. [image]--- ➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials!
2023-02-01T12:20:30
2023-06-06T14:28:10
2023-06-06T14:28:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yVAEXGniXeFkCfHQajGo
Will Binance collapse before the end of 2024?
Below are some examples (but by no means exhaustive) that would qualify as collapse: No withdrawals for 14 days BNB market cap below $1B (unless it is phased out as planned by the company) for >14 days Files for bankruptcy
2023-02-01T10:16:18
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-01T16:28:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rRqzeKjJ43IOd1n7UEm9
Will Donovan Sharpe Physically Attack OR Threaten Destiny on the night of their debate @ Fresh & Fit?
Physical Attacks can be anything from a light but ill intended/intentional push to a punch in the face or worse. Basically if Donovan aggresses on Destiny and invades his personal space in order to make physical contact. Simply walking by him and accidentally bumping into him because it's crowded will be evaluated as "NO". Threats may include directed and sincere physical threats to his person, to any of his friends or family such as "I'll do x to your wife if you don't shut the fuck up" or things of that nature. A threat to deplatform or negatively impact Destiny economically will also be considered a threat. Jokes or on-topic hypotheticals are not considered threats. Indirect threats and in cases where Destiny might respond "is that a threat?" and Donovan replying "it's not a threat it's a promise", or something to that nature are considered threats. I'll refrain from betting, and will resolve with my own discretion if there is a physical contact or ambiguous threat that is hard to determine. As long as the intentions are clear the result will be clear. Let me know if I should include more clauses for these 2 categories. Will resolve the day after the podcast unless something happens during, just in case something happens right after the podcast.
2023-02-01T07:42:41
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T17:06:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dzexB9AXJdMBzGUWr0d5
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before July 2023? (tests included)
This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after January 1, 2023 and before July 1, 2023. Otherwise NO. A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES. A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. Related questions See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis. (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-af0ba4d66245)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-e717f6cb823f)
2023-02-01T06:01:29
2023-06-30T20:59:00
2023-07-01T22:13:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FO8n5ABKtdHGcw32ZNiH
Will SBF be charged with witness tampering?
Resolves 'yes' if SBF is charged with witness tampering under 18 U.S. Code § 1512 by the end of 2023. He's already been accused of witness tampering, leading to a request to alter his bail conditions to restrict his use of encrypted messaging and contact with former FTX/Alameda employees.
2023-02-01T04:36:26
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-02T16:48:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2iSxgHhstrBBu3XTO0tH
Will Nikki Haley win the South Carolina primary?
Feb 1, 3:52am: Will Nikki Haley win there South Carolina primary? → Will Nikki Haley win the South Carolina primary?
2023-02-01T00:52:13
2024-02-25T15:15:07
2024-02-25T15:15:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DPF08AKBbWOsxTRxC9tV
Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win 4 or more Academy Awards?
EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 4 of those 11.
2023-01-31T21:54:20
2023-03-12T20:14:17
2023-03-12T20:14:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wRmXRKTtZr7IoBWpYb40
Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win 6 or more Academy Awards?
EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 6 of those 11.
2023-01-31T21:51:33
2023-03-12T20:30:23
2023-03-12T20:30:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UTT9jXRIXt3FuqyDysfC
Will there be a Samus main in the top 30 of the 2023 Super Smash Bros Melee year-end top 100 player rankings?
If there is a Samus main in the top 30 of the 2023 SSBMRank or equivalent successor ranking system, this market resolves to YES. Will not count if the player is explicitly listed as having Samus only as a secondary. Does count if the player is explicitly listed as having Samus as co-main with another character. For reference: https://liquipedia.net/smash/SSBMRank
2023-01-31T21:45:15
2024-01-26T17:53:41
2024-01-26T17:53:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Jxa9CSHPnCxvrYdErqCF
Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?
Will a donor who is not currently widely known in effective altruism, longtermism, or existential risk give ≥$50 million to longtermist or existential risk causes or organizations before the end of 2024, and be expected to continue giving ≥$50 million per year? I will only count donations or grants, not impact investments. I will count something as a longtermist if it seems like the kind of thing the Long-Term Future Fund or Open Phil's longtermist budget might plausibly fund. I will resolve this question at my discretion in whichever way seems most correct to me. I may trade in this market, but promise to carefully make sure not to let my position affect the way I resolve this market.
2023-01-31T21:18:57
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T08:46:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fipzTjRFh0knUkp4W1uE
Will Donald Trump formally cancel his deal with Truth Social by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-31T19:50:34
2023-12-31T16:49:27
2023-12-31T16:49:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BhhrbLjgvCT7pxlO2RRH
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
Inspired by Polymarket where the price is currently 5% with a liquidity of thousands of USD! Can Manifold do better? Resolves when a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates; or when a candidate is officially selected as nominee, whichever happens first.
2023-01-31T16:48:40
2024-03-13T07:38:33
2024-03-13T07:38:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ly5uto9nJJwcpvuWlUL2
Will Russian athletes be barred from the 2024 Olympics
Being allowed to compete but not under the Russian flag would be NO A few athletes competing for other countries teams while the majority of Russian athletes are banned would be YES
2023-01-31T11:35:59
2024-07-26T09:16:56
2024-07-26T09:16:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S4sU78EwGVKWjpcOSZe7
Will Apple leadership announce a layoff of >=5% of workforce by EOY 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-31T11:09:25
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:10:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MFo0mc1hE1uh5HpEiBOR
Will Bed Bath & Beyond declare bankruptcy by March 1 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-31T09:54:36
2023-03-01T23:59:00
2023-03-02T10:13:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5kstwG7yU5g1tT8lZPgG
Will a new Mersenne prime be discovered in 2023?
This market will resolve as YES if a new Mersenne prime number is discovered in 2023. Resolution source: https://www.mersenne.org/primes/
2023-01-31T08:40:13
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T16:07:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QUkYMElSdmcIot3a8XHX
Will any NATO country send fighter jets to Ukraine before the 31st of July 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-31T07:56:01
2023-03-23T17:36:40
2023-03-23T17:36:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7NCQ31UjuY6nUyqzlYrV
Will Sweden send fighter jets to Ukraine before 2024?
Some MPs are calling for increased support with fighter jets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen
2023-01-31T07:54:13
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2023-12-31T15:19:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TRQg3My0Qj40upLH2zGU
Will @LexFridman get a Trustworthy (ish) badge in 2023?
[image] @LexFridman Jan 31, 7:53pm: Will Manifold user @LexFridman get a Trustworthy (ish) badge in 2023? → Will @LexFridman get a Trustworthy (ish) badge in 2023?
2023-01-31T07:26:20
2023-06-12T11:21:38
2023-06-12T11:21:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fHq1ksEBAM0rCq8UMp1n
Will the Democrats embrace YIMBYism in their 2024 party platform?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-30T22:32:31
2024-08-25T14:42:17
2024-08-25T14:42:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BU4ws9wL07PY9IZhmSLs
If Russia starts a new offensive in Q1 2023, within one month will they take and hold 5% more territory than they held on January 1st 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-30T22:03:01
2023-08-29T18:47:20
2023-08-29T18:47:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lOkxzj5pFxfLf9bUHPAI
Will the Charity Commission's statutory inquiry into Effective Ventures UK (EVF) result in a public report finding significant misconduct and/or mismanagement by 12/2025?
Generally, the report would need to include an intensifier like substantial, significant, or serious -- unless the substantiality is clear and obvious from the report or from the actions taken (e.g., issuance of orders disqualifying most of the trustees). Absence of a public report will cause this to resolve to NO. For example, this language from a recent report on another charity would qualify, although I view it as a fairly close call: The Commission has concluded that there was misconduct and/or mismanagement in the charity’s administration by the trustees. This includes a serious disregard for, and/or a lack of understanding of, the importance of proper financial controls and accountability in respect of the charity’s funds.
2023-01-30T19:09:34
2024-05-22T04:38:57
2024-05-22T04:38:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tfKssEUcQJZDiB84qAHo
Will the Charity Commission's statutory inquiry into Effective Ventures UK (EVF) result in significant regulatory action by 12/2025?
Background here. For the purposes of this question, significant regulatory action includes, but is not necessarily limited to: The issuance of a public Official Warning (the existence of a report is not sufficient, the term "Official Warning" must be used in a statement or report by the CC); Involuntary removal of, or appointment of, an EVF trustee (voluntary resignation or appointments do not count); Disqualification of an EVF trustee from serving as a charity trustee or senior manager for a period of time (this does include "voluntary" undertakings not to serve in these roles); Appointment of an Interim Manager for any length of time; Most other temporary protective powers, if they exceed 3 months' duration and are not clearly minor in scope; Almost all permanent protective powers; and An order directing the winding up of EVF UK's affairs. See this document for more information about the CC's regulatory powers, and ask if this description is unclear on what I consider to be a "significant" regulatory action. I do not intend to defer resolving the market pending any appeals outside the CC.
2023-01-30T18:58:30
2024-05-22T04:39:30
2024-05-22T04:39:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wmCM9pgUOgnFCOegivDm
Will Oklahoma ban Gender Affirming Hormone Therapy for Young Adults under 21 in 2023?
Oklahoma State Representative Jim Olsen introduced bill HB1011 to the Oklahoma state legislature on January 4th. The bill makes provision of "any gender transition procedures" for those under 26 a felony. The bill is scheduled for its first reading on February 6th. Many other legislatures have introduced similar bills. There is another bill, SB 129, which has been introduced in Oklahoma Senate which bans gender affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) for young adults up to 26. This market resolves as YES if Oklahoma declares provision of GAHT to everyone under the age of 21 (or greater) a felony in the year 2023. The market still resolves as yes if a state or federal court strikes down the ban.The market still resolves as yes if a state or federal court strikes down the ban. It resolves as no if the Oklahoma legislature makes provision of GAHT a felony in the year 2024 or if the age cutoff is below 21 or if no such ban is enacted.
2023-01-30T16:16:44
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:47:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ke7ae8PBIVlRdA0RX60L
Will SBF make any post or comment on the EA forum before 2025?
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/sambf Another account would also qualify.
2023-01-30T15:43:23
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-01T16:33:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HExgLUQ2NOrlq4WGD5yH
Will Elon Musk retweet, quote tweet, or reply to any of Aella's polls by the end of 2024?
Retweets and quote tweets must be for the actual poll tweet. A reply would also count if it's a reply to one of Aella's replies to her own poll.
2023-01-30T14:06:30
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-01T16:26:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iyK6njfTlw7sylT8IgL2
Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump tweet before the end of 2024?
Compare to: (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/conditional-on-not-being-nominated)
2023-01-30T13:50:33
2024-07-24T13:55:24
2024-07-24T13:55:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qB7MHcjIQGwqFTe2yZIf
Will the 2024 presidential election be contested?
Resolves YES if I see a lot of people unironically claiming that there was voter fraud or it was otherwise rigged or unfair. Doesn't need to be legally proven in court.
2023-01-30T11:20:35
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-02T12:16:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-k6oYCXg9RpqBYZBLIKSM
Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024?
The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD, engl. Alternative for Germany) has never been part of a coalition at national or state level in Germany yet (they helped to elect Kemmerich in Thuringia, but weren't formally part of a coalition). There will be three elections in 2024 in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. In current polls in Saxony, the AfD holds around 30% of votes. All major parties publically said they wouldn't build a coalition with the AfD. This market resolves YES if there is a coalition at a state (or national) level that includes the AfD before Dec 31st, 2024. Jan 30, 11:40pm: Will the right-wing party AfD be part of a state-level government in Germany in 2024? → Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024?
2023-01-30T08:53:38
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-25T14:56:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9oPsd5QYWaEchiyG5zBJ
Will Apple launch a folding screen iPad before 2025?
The device must be available for sale, not just announced before 2025 to resolve YES.
2023-01-30T07:26:20
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-01T01:00:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6PR4dv8NzpWgiyoHsQPS
Will LessWrong do something for April Fool's day this year?
Must be LessWrong themselves, not just some people on LessWrong.
2023-01-29T23:08:55
2023-09-09T14:06:32
2023-09-09T14:06:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uPSnMj5QnfmndAxdaGZa
Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(5) be known before 2030?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver#Exact_values_and_lower_bounds https://bbchallenge.org/
2023-01-29T20:41:01
2024-07-05T21:16:43
2024-07-05T21:16:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fuILQbZ9eu5fIRqZvz4n
Will OpenAI publish a paper accompanying GPT-4?
I will only resolve this if there is a model that is explicitly "GPT-4", or OpenAI announces that they are switching their naming scheme and the model released is the successor to GPT-3, but won't be named GPT-4. Blog posts, press releases, etc do not count as papers. An arxiv preprint counts.
2023-01-29T18:09:21
2023-03-14T16:48:54
2023-03-14T16:48:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gLzaJZwqEW0ng7ZN2BvO
Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-29T16:08:38
2024-11-06T20:59:00
2024-11-07T07:41:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kE7y6kED9nBNIcsb3lIS
Will Sweden join NATO by 2023-04-11?
Resolves YES if Sweden and Finland join NATO simultaneously, or if within one week of one joining, the other joins. Resolves NO if one joins and then a week elapses without the other joining. Close date to be extended until one joins. Apr 4, 8:32am: Will Sweden and Finland join NATO within one week of each other? → Will Sweden join NATO by 2023-04-11?
2023-01-29T11:52:42
2023-04-11T15:23:14
2023-04-11T15:23:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FX7NIaINEltjfh1cRtxd
Will Destiny debate someone on the Project Veritas vaccine mutation claim by the end of February?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-29T11:38:49
2023-03-01T04:41:43
2023-03-01T04:41:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dFYFFzbhiTy4h1uMvEYo
Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win 7 or more Academy Awards?
EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 7 of those 11.
2023-01-29T10:49:31
2023-03-12T20:42:16
2023-03-12T20:42:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-l0vYCeLM3cYYkGibBFNg
Will Brendan Fraser win 'Best Actor' at the 95th Academy Awards for his role in the movie 'The Whale'?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-29T10:02:08
2023-03-12T20:24:36
2023-03-12T20:24:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LkI0ZKCgtnlQXERzLU3Q
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through the end of 2023?
Resolves NO if PredictIt ceases operating markets at any time in 2023 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues). Resolves YES otherwise. Background: PredictIt was ordered by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023. However, on January 26 an appeals court granted an injunction allowing PredictIt to continue to operate while a court case is considered. See also [markets]
2023-01-29T05:50:53
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T11:14:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-k8dwSBVfkMMmjLPBgXRF
Will Google still be the most popular search engine at the end of 2024?
Includes chatbots like ChatGPT, or hybrid approaches. Basically any computer program that people use to find out general facts about the world.
2023-01-28T21:19:40
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-01T16:24:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IUlGcbRHdDK5myKqzAcV
Will Destiny join Manifold by the end of 2023?
Resolves to YES if Destiny creates a Manifold account. It must be clearly them, with no significant uncertainty as to whether it's an impersonator. (No, neither @Destiny, @destiny, nor @DesTiny are actually Destiny.)
2023-01-28T20:54:44
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-01T16:03:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1vmIPAKeRQ8CO18tK5od
Will the FDP be in the Bavarian State Parliament at the end of 2023?
This question will resolve YES if at least two members of the Bavarian State Parliament are members of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) on New Year’s Eve 2023, NO otherwise.   Note that an election is scheduled for October and a party needs at least 5% of the vote to get seats. You can see a current collection of polls here.
2023-01-28T10:20:51
2024-01-03T01:34:26
2024-01-03T04:52:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1UFubqGcFUf60rtz1z6w
Will the Future of Humanity Institute exist in 2030?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-28T09:38:56
2024-04-19T04:39:37
2024-04-19T04:39:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-p5gnWDqbkpSji5Zd3IqG
Will Biden have the opportunity to appoint another Supreme Court Justice?
Resolves YES if Biden is the sitting President when a vacancy on the Supreme Court is opened up. Otherwise, resolves NO. Close date updated to 2028-01-20 6:59 pm
2023-01-28T03:30:30
2025-01-27T14:15:47
2025-01-27T14:15:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1YH2xZgQNQ1pacezeONY
Will Destiny debate Vaush in 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-27T20:09:27
2023-10-02T22:49:32
2023-10-02T22:52:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rA1VpaDqdhNWntZs4RUu
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin (head of Wagner private army) be alive for all of 2023?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin
2023-01-27T16:11:38
2023-08-28T00:17:34
2023-08-28T00:17:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mOspubeVj2t9st0qDEdt
Will Geometry Dash 2.2 release before 2024?
Geometry dash has gone more than half of its lifespan without an update. With all of the sneak peeks, will it receive one this year?
2023-01-27T15:26:44
2023-12-19T17:40:55
2023-12-19T17:40:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8yLdjpM1uJiSwvxxylnU
Will the phrase "effective altruism" be used in more than 50 New York Times articles in 2023?
As measured by this search. As of Jan 27, 2023, there is only 1 such article. Here is a time series of counts: [image]
2023-01-27T15:11:33
2024-01-01T13:51:00
2024-01-01T13:51:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TEJibYykMdUI679VOz4d
At least 1% more Google layoffs by EOY 2023?
This market resolves positively if Google or Alphabet announces layoffs of additional ≥1% of FTEs beyond those announced on Jan 20 (including the international layoffs which, at the time of this writing, have already been announced but not yet enacted). Resolution can only come from official email or announcement from Sundar Pichai or official Google representative. They must explicitly announce either X% layoffs (where X≥1), or 2,000 layoffs. Can be either a Google-specific layoff affecting ≥1% of Google or an Alphabet-wide layoff affecting ≥1% of Alphabet..
2023-01-27T11:04:56
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:10:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4Wvjva0MpXkkSDFOneRl
Will Destiny re-dye his hair at any point this year?
Resolves YES if destiny dyes his hair with a "permanent" dye of any color by the end of the year.
2023-01-27T06:03:27
2023-12-31T14:00:00
2024-01-02T17:19:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PdYDDX07idTbZjnzYbEH
Will Adam Schiff be elected as US Senator from California in 2024?
Resolves YES if Adam Schiff wins election in 2024 as US Senator from California, otherwise NO. Resolves when the race is called by AP. Schiff just announced he's running: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/26/adam-schiff-california-senate-bid-00079622
2023-01-26T17:45:07
2024-11-20T11:50:00
2024-11-20T11:50:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-iK63Ml0C1iSetZUZurhA
Will Republicans retain control of the U.S House in the 2024 elections?
Resolves yes if 218 House members elected in the 2024 elections identify themselves as Republicans. Currently, there are 222 Republicans in the House.
2023-01-26T17:27:51
2024-11-11T18:46:26
2024-11-11T18:46:26
yes
MANIFOLD