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stringlengths 0
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| open_date
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stringlengths 19
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| resolve_date
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| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-48VjzAA3jVFfIb5WLYQS
|
Will TikTok be banned in the United States for the majority of the population by the end of 2024?
|
This question is about the legislation impacting consumers before the end of 2024 (for the majority of Americans).
If TikTok is banned for the majority of Americans before the end of 2024 and some people were still accessing TikTok illegally in the US after the ban came into place then the market would resolve YES
If a bill is signed into law but is not yet impacting consumers (i.e. because it is held up in court) that would not count towards a YES because the ban would not yet be impacting consumers
If TikTok is banned in a way that impacted the majority of Americans before the end of 2024, then the market would resolve as a YES (even if TikTok was later re-instated)
|
2023-01-26T15:37:10
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:57:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7pSQQJkPx3Ewrl3HiqCS
|
More Google layoffs by EOY 2023?
|
This market resolves positively if Google or Alphabet announces layoffs of additional ≥5% of FTEs beyond those announced on Jan 20. Resolution can only come from official email or announcement from Sundar Pichai or official Google representative. They must explicitly announce either X% layoffs (where X≥5), or 8,000 layoffs. Can be either a Google-specific layoff affecting ≥5% of Google or an Alphabet-wide layoff affecting ≥5% of Alphabet..
|
2023-01-26T10:37:41
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:31:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FOQ7TdT9SPcxsJV1BJQb
|
Will there be a US Presidential Primary debate with at least 5 Democrats?
|
TV network or online stream with > 500,000 views
If it hasn't happened by 2024-01-22 (IA Caucus), presume it's not happening.
|
2023-01-26T06:30:08
|
2024-01-22T20:59:00
|
2024-01-23T03:26:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-23MpmEXdWuUkX124uNNl
|
Will Netflix drop the binge-watching model by Jul 2024?
|
If Netflix publicly announces they're dropping the binge-watching model (releasing everything at once) towards a weekly model (even if a couple of episodes upfront and then a weekly cadence), this market resolves to YES.
This market can also resolve to YES if we have 7 high-profile shows released in a weekly/weekly-ish cadence.
|
2023-01-26T05:28:54
|
2024-06-30T07:54:10
|
2024-06-30T07:54:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RCAEDNsfXnFaez4lTu2K
|
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?
|
Jan 26, 1:20pm: Will there be a pandemic via zoonosis from the ongoing avian H5N1 outbreak? → Will the WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza?
Feb 4, 12:43am: Will the WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza? → Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?
Feb 6, 2:46pm: Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza? → Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?
|
2023-01-26T05:05:37
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:36:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5r74LsG6IfHdX69T2Gvn
|
Will someone be slapped at the 2023 Oscars?
|
Must happen on-stage during main official live broadcast. Real or fake/joke slaps will count.
|
2023-01-25T20:39:41
|
2023-03-12T20:59:00
|
2023-03-12T21:12:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4Zm9n7jQ9fDcCqd4A4na
|
Will Russia have control of Crimea by the end of 2023?
|
Arbitrage on: https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-ukraine-have-control-over-crim
This market will resolve yes if Russia has control of more than 50% of the Crimean peninsula.
Source will be the isw map
|
2023-01-25T17:59:55
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-02T02:43:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0lYi1at8g0Me4UJ5uCzY
|
Will Trump post on Facebook in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/ makes a post in 2023. Otherwise NO.
Only top-level posts count, comments do not count. Only public posts count. Any "post" type including text, photo, video, event counts. Shares count.
Trump was just unsuspended on Facebook and Instagram after 2 years: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64408306
|
2023-01-25T16:45:14
|
2023-03-20T17:44:03
|
2023-03-20T17:44:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t13blnTzL7poe1FKMxWG
|
Will GPT-4 be released on the first or last day of a month (in Pacific Time)?
|
Resolves N/A if GPT-4 is not released this year.
Released refers to that it can be accessed by anyone through an API or other means, not release to employees of OpenAI or a private beta.
|
2023-01-25T16:30:00
|
2023-03-14T15:50:07
|
2023-03-14T15:50:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RPOZPYwVja9q2lF9Qyxo
|
Will Trump be indicted but not arrested in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/23-will-donald-trump-get-indicted-o resolves YES and https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor resolves NO
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ACXBot/23-will-donald-trump-get-indicted-o)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor)
|
2023-01-25T15:30:42
|
2023-04-07T01:13:05
|
2023-04-07T01:13:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6VANWuhbsjb0qNWwdfMY
|
Will any NATO state deliver fighter jets to ukraine in 2023?
|
Related markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-ukraine-receive-western-milita?r=Tmlja2VsQ2hlbg)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MartinModrak/which-nonrussian-fighter-jet-will-b?r=Tmlja2VsQ2hlbg)(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-any-nato-state-announce-the-de)
|
2023-01-25T13:21:47
|
2023-03-23T09:35:21
|
2023-03-23T09:35:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2glsMT7R3mavbpVIZcP1
|
Will 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' win multiple Academy Awards at the 95th Academy Awards?
|
'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' is nominated for 5 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. If it wins in at least 2 of them this market will resolve to YES.
|
2023-01-25T12:02:00
|
2023-03-12T20:39:24
|
2023-03-12T20:39:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YqGFBXP0TXDLSl6FwWMU
|
Will the movie 'All Quiet on the Western Front' win multiple Academy Awards?
|
'All Quiet on the Western Front' is nominated in 9 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins in at least 2 of them.
|
2023-01-25T11:48:22
|
2023-03-12T18:47:43
|
2023-03-12T18:47:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vjI4TRkT3q8mkvy6Q1Iu
|
Will the Golden State Warriors win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2023-01-25T10:48:56
|
2023-05-14T09:46:59
|
2023-05-14T09:46:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZIOKo6DMQszoaQgTOtda
|
Will the Phoenix Suns win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2023-01-25T10:47:54
|
2023-05-14T09:47:05
|
2023-05-14T09:47:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EAt51eS8hcW6h9xcYFSQ
|
Will the Denver Nuggets win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2023-01-25T10:45:50
|
2023-06-13T05:35:04
|
2023-06-13T05:35:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JIE3b4eZqQHlQ23ugQzc
|
Will the Boston Celtics win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Boston Celtics win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2023-01-25T10:45:13
|
2023-06-05T11:30:43
|
2023-06-05T11:30:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a5SwDtuNAZtjwFYe2bYd
|
Will the Kerch Strait Crimean Bridge be partially destroyed (again) by 02 May 2023
|
It was bombed in October 2023 for Putin's birthday, temporarily closing the railway line and destroying sections of one of two road decks. The railway still operates, and the bridge is open to light traffic but as of 07 Dec 2022 it was not carrying lorries or fully redecked.
This question resolves yes if the railway line, repaired lorry access or the remaining road access are prevented from working for at least 13 days following an attack on the bridge by anyone (including Russia).
If no attack has occurred by the market closure, this resolves no. If an attack occurs close to the deadline I'll extend the market closure time to 13 days after the attack to see the result. If further attacks after 02may make that hard to judge it will resolve n/a (and you get your money back).
My personal prediction is the railway line, but leaving the light road access as a retreat option for Russian troops.
|
2023-01-25T06:28:59
|
2023-05-02T09:59:00
|
2023-05-02T10:13:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N30RrlDpsPP9bTlb5jJB
|
Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go into tiebreaks?
|
The exact format of this years World Chess Championship is not that public but it's pretty clear, that if the match is not decided in the classical games, there will be some kind of tiebreaks.
Resolves to Yes, if the match is not decided in the classical games.
Resolves to No if there is a winner after the n number of classical games.
The match between Ian Nepomniatchi and Ding Liren will take between the 07.04 and 30.04 of this year
Close date updated to 2024-05-01 12:59 am
Jan 25, 12:24pm: Will this years chess world Championship go into tiebreaks? → Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go into tiebreaks?
|
2023-01-25T03:22:47
|
2023-04-29T12:49:33
|
2023-04-29T12:49:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fZPmWE7HDyA8MtjAKZMt
|
Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' win multiple Academy Awards?
|
'Avatar: The Way of Water' is nominated for 4 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. If it wins at least 2 of these, this market will resolve to YES.
Categories it's nominated for:
Best Picture
Best Sound
Best Production Design
Best Visual Effects
|
2023-01-25T02:33:53
|
2023-03-12T20:44:12
|
2023-03-12T20:44:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QeMVgzhJMtkmtbebYcDB
|
Praggnanandhaa beats Magnus in a classical chess format in-person standard chess game
|
by 2035
fischer random doesn't count
online doesn't count
rapid/blitz/etc doesn't count
time-wise only standard formats such as are used in longer "classical" time controls such as are used in major tournaments such as tata steel, candidates, etc. If those rules change in the future, games will count if they follow the standard of the time for long time controls.
|
2023-01-24T21:07:32
|
2024-05-29T17:34:02
|
2024-05-29T17:34:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5Imx7HH10dQWB73KS6oc
|
Will Destiny have 635k subs by the end of February?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
|
2023-01-24T21:07:27
|
2023-03-01T04:41:01
|
2023-03-01T04:41:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wwlsheBjnJFIVxt9spvF
|
Will guinea worm disease be eradicated before Jimmy Carter dies?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-24T17:53:53
|
2024-10-17T20:59:00
|
2025-01-29T18:22:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WRfkEuCcHMZGKL2WFnKI
|
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in the next two years?
|
"I've been goin' through somethin'
One thousand, eight hundred and 55 days
I've been goin' through somethin'
Be Afraid"
- Kendrick Lamar 'United In Grief'
https://hiphopdx.com/news/id.72249/title.kendrick-lamar-has-already-started-his-next-album-says-sounwave
|
2023-01-24T17:13:06
|
2024-11-25T15:49:48
|
2024-11-25T15:49:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n03D0CibnGN7uHVglnYK
|
Will Adept successfully prove in court that she and xQc were considered married under Canadian Common Law?
|
Context from Destiny who has been talking to xQc bts
https://www.youtube.com/clip/UgkxGQvTTxpUG9TfMGigpeZZj_etIM_K9Url
|
2023-01-24T15:20:56
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-12T05:04:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-to21naFgz0uiNuvBw9pG
|
Will xQc have to pay alimony or other forms of payment to Adept?
|
Context from Destiny who has been talking to xQc bts
https://www.youtube.com/clip/UgkxGQvTTxpUG9TfMGigpeZZj_etIM_K9Url
|
2023-01-24T15:19:05
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-06T20:44:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P5mmeNDwoXeurUHYJUzp
|
Sam Altman leaves openAI by 2030
|
Ways this can become true:
There is no more openAI organization. (Note that if purchased or merged, it's not necessarily false as long as he still is involved)
Sam Leaves day to day operations permanently (board seat counts as leaving if there is no other work)
Resolves immediately if it is verifiably announced.
|
2023-01-24T14:15:00
|
2023-11-17T22:36:48
|
2023-11-17T22:36:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LsMjrGOxoKUXjf7ZWQS9
|
Will classified documents be found at the residence of Jared Kushner/Ivanka Trump?
|
They might be getting FOMO. By end of 2023.
|
2023-01-24T13:47:44
|
2023-12-31T20:41:43
|
2023-12-31T20:41:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rj6o7ZjfPsuyiT0Zyq2P
|
Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win 5 or more Academy Awards?
|
EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 5 of those 11.
|
2023-01-24T13:07:48
|
2023-03-12T20:15:19
|
2023-03-12T20:15:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CwT8jhg4jEKFh8jaGmpw
|
Will Trump be indicted or charged by the end of 2023 for crimes related to (classified) documents?
|
Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, he is indicted or charged with crimes related to unlawful handling of documents - e.g. in relation to possession of sensitive or classified documents, compliance with law enforcement or court order about such documents, or compliance with the Presidential Records Act. (It is not necessary that the documents be classified.)
Note: These resolution criteria are somewhat subjective, I may try to improve them based on feedback, treat them as a draft initially.
Grouped questions
[markets]Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-trump-be-charged-by-the-doj-by-011c278e730e)
|
2023-01-24T11:09:34
|
2023-06-08T19:19:19
|
2023-06-08T19:19:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2nGNyoHu9YAo0Q5cqvjj
|
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2023?
|
Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2024? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-8cf89160dcb2)(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-7fde06cf4934)[markets]UPD: Changed closing date to Jan 2, 2024, in order to have a bit time for reports to surface. Since the question is about significant change, this should be enough. The resolution cirteria is still about front line change in 2023.
|
2023-01-24T03:39:19
|
2024-01-02T14:59:00
|
2024-01-03T01:24:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nB6mmuUsl41obrSfoxBa
|
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in the first half of 2023?
|
Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before July 1, 2023? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.
UPD: See also the comments from the sister market for some resolution examples.
See also:
[markets]
|
2023-01-24T03:37:33
|
2023-06-30T14:59:00
|
2023-07-02T12:43:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lbN11oxoF0GiNRhPXYh0
|
Will a Destiny video uploaded in 2023 reach 1 Million views by June 30th, 2023?
|
Destiny's Channel is growing, and has had one video recently reach 1M views in record time (3 months) https://youtu.be/y2PJ7wYU_8Y
Other videos have/are coming close, within a similar 6 month timespan.
Will one of Destiny's recent uploads, or future uploads in the year of 2023, reach 1 Million views before the close date?
Close date should be based on GMT. If it is wrong, it will not be amended. Trade accordingly.
Alternate timescale:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gen/will-a-destiny-video-uploaded-in-20?r=R2Vu)
|
2023-01-24T02:10:49
|
2023-06-30T17:00:00
|
2023-06-30T17:48:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tm1ErQ7hebHqgE9XLuY4
|
Will a Destiny video uploaded in 2023 reach 1 Million views before the end of 2023?
|
Destiny's Channel is growing, and has had one video recently reach 1M views in record time (3 months) https://youtu.be/y2PJ7wYU_8Y
Will one of Destiny's recent uploads, or future uploads in the year of 2023, reach 1 Million views before the close date?
Close date should be based on GMT. If it is wrong, it will not be amended. Trade accordingly.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gen/will-a-destiny-video-uploaded-in-20-e2ced07955d3?r=R2Vu)
|
2023-01-24T02:10:43
|
2023-12-31T16:00:00
|
2023-12-31T22:54:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F6ecUl9SOj42VErLVSJQ
|
Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at the end of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-vladimir-putin-still-be-the-le resolves YES and https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/1-will-vladimir-putin-be-president resolves NO.
Jan 24, 12:14pm: Will Putin be leader of russia but no longer president at then end of 2023? → Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at then end of 2023?
Jan 25, 11:52pm: Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at then end of 2023? → Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at the end of 2023?
|
2023-01-24T01:36:45
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T05:51:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Tgk3eNbljcvQRTiIBGdK
|
Will LLMs be able to produce worked solutions to these simple probability questions with hidden Markovian structure by the end of 2023.
|
Here's a type of problem that seems to stump current LLMs (e.g. ChatGPT):
Alice and Bob have two dice.
They roll the dice together, note the sum of the two values shown, and repeat.
For Alice to win, two consecutive turns (meaning, two consecutive sums) need to result in 7. For Bob to win, he needs to see an eight followed by a seven. Who do we expect to win this game?
This problem is a rewrite of a similar problem from the "Puzzled" page of the February 2013 issue of the Communications of the ACM.
A similar problem is Penney's game. Which has the following setup:
Alice and Bob flip a coin and record the results. Alice bets Bob that the sequence HHH will show up before the sequence THH. Should Bob take this bet?
The catch in both cases is that there's a hidden Markovian structure to the game — once you write out the Markov chain corresponding to the game state, the solution becomes clear.
This market resolves to Yes if an LLM can reliably and coherently answer these types of problems before the end of 2023. Solving only Penney's game will resolve to No, as that problem is likely present in any reasonable training set.
Rewrites of the questions that introduce no new information are allowed. Prompt engineering that introduces no new information is also allowed.
|
2023-01-23T20:38:57
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-03-04T12:23:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc
|
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
|
This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.
When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:
"How will your administration address the growing issue of job losses due to technological advances?" — Too broad; doesn't specify AI.
"What are your plans for helping workers displaced by automation?" — Not specific to AI; includes all automation.
If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.
[image]
|
2023-01-23T18:55:42
|
2024-11-03T23:59:00
|
2024-11-04T13:39:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZT22RLYMkmgqcH2uBVBO
|
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-23T18:09:00
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:04:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MJJLD744gowSruPmFC4L
|
Will more than 500 Palestinians be killed by Israeli forces during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-23T14:16:48
|
2023-10-10T00:27:46
|
2023-10-10T00:27:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tn6E9enqUfjIhVBwIw0s
|
Will any country pass a law explicitly regulating artificial intelligence during 2023?
|
Law = act of legislature.
|
2023-01-23T14:06:02
|
2023-08-09T02:16:06
|
2023-08-09T02:16:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yhXzRpyllINGf1KY5tTW
|
Will Way of Water be Best Picture in 2023 ?
|
Way of Water has inspired millions across the world with its magnificient CGI, but will it also convince the hearts of the comittee ?
|
2023-01-23T13:58:43
|
2023-05-16T09:39:32
|
2023-05-16T09:39:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RqJqHwgYTerhg4fxui4Q
|
Will Apple announce a AR/VR/Mixed reality headset at or before WWDC 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-23T12:33:21
|
2023-06-05T09:50:00
|
2023-06-05T12:10:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qIgf2yTwde9ZdPnbznyt
|
Gary Marcus prediction: 2023 will see the first death attributable to large language models
|
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime
Resolves to YES if it happens. Otherwise I'll leave this open for a few weeks after the end of 2023, and if I haven't found any credible reporting of such a thing by then, I'll resolve to NO.
Could include a direct death from a language model being given physical control over some mechanism, or an indirect death from something like a language model providing bad advice and someone acting on that advice and getting themselves killed, committing suicide after a language model told them to do so, or something like that.
Does not include things that aren't clearly the language model's "fault", such as someone bombing an AI research lab, someone crashing their car because they were distracted talking to a language model, a model giving someone a vague idea that they investigate themselves and eventually leads to their death months later, etc.
"Large" is vague, so I'll ignore that qualifer and count any language model.
|
2023-01-23T12:29:25
|
2023-03-30T21:00:00
|
2023-04-08T11:09:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZrkBCXACr5chOCFIa8qe
|
February 2023: Will Russia lose more than 150,000 troops?
|
Will resolve to YES if in February 2023, the Ukrainian estimate of Russia's losses reaches 150,000 troops.
https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/
[image][image]
|
2023-01-23T12:04:30
|
2023-03-01T02:59:00
|
2023-03-06T03:56:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QLnrPTRrOIGDCrqCCdq1
|
Will the words "artificial intelligence" be said in the debates for the 2024 US presidential election?
|
Can be primaries or main campaign debates, and can be said by either the moderators or the candidates.
Inpired by
https://twitter.com/tszzl/status/1617373140312817666
|
2023-01-23T11:27:43
|
2023-09-29T10:32:56
|
2023-09-29T10:32:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WsZQTqTUj7e1g31WUqZQ
|
Will Dwayne Johnson run in the next US presidential election?
|
If he makes a bid for the presidency either for a party or as an independent.
This is about making any sort of bid - even if he ultimately fails to get on the ballot.
Will resolve YES only when there is an official statement from Johnson saying he will run.
https://www.dwayneforpresident.com/
Close date updated to 2024-11-30 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-23T09:48:11
|
2024-11-09T16:28:50
|
2024-11-09T16:28:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n4PKeKMODqangUAr4IPb
|
Will it be possible to get a correct solution for the quadratic equation from the text-to-image model this year?
|
The prompt should not include a solution.
The market resolves as YES, if someone provides evidence that this is possible, otherwise resolves as NO.
|
2023-01-23T02:27:24
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T19:29:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o5gf6xA4i4MjyGfagCH9
|
Will US Core Inflation (5.7% in Dec 2022) exceed 5% in Nov 2023?
|
Will US Core YoY Inflation be higher than 5.00%?
5.7% in December 2022
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=rocU
Feb 4, 3:16pm: Will inflation in November 2023 exceed 5%? → Will US Core Inflation (5.7% in Dec 2022) exceed 5% in Nov 2023?
|
2023-01-22T23:49:32
|
2023-12-11T15:59:00
|
2023-12-12T20:55:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PeHlYXP12QTTFpWjn235
|
If Donald Trump is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-22T23:45:40
|
2024-11-06T12:55:18
|
2024-11-06T12:55:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1U67ud8u1m969zZi9zfD
|
Will a self-identified Peronist win the 2023 Argentina presidential election?
|
If a self-described peronist by the mainstream media wins the elections, which includes Kirchner, Fernandez, Massa, and so on, this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-01-22T14:48:07
|
2023-11-19T15:26:49
|
2023-11-19T15:26:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sbYu8h8iHlpPJW67Dze6
|
Will xQc beat his Minecraft speedrun PB before Forsen?
|
xQc has been occasionally mixing Minecraft runs in with variety content despite having the better PB in his 'competition' with Forsen. Meanwhile, Forsen has been pretty much exclusively running MC speedruns in an attempt to take back the record (~4-5 hr per stream). Who will beat the 00:20:05 PB first - the skeleton or the hobo?
The market will resolve 'YES' if xQc manages to beat his PB of 00:20:05 before Forsen does; otherwise, the market resolves 'NO'.
[image]
Close date updated to 2050-01-22 6:59 pm
|
2023-01-22T11:53:04
|
2023-03-22T17:35:27
|
2023-03-22T17:35:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aWMvON1quKC5vZwuFyx4
|
Will Moldova seek membership in NATO by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-22T10:12:00
|
2023-12-31T13:51:10
|
2023-12-31T13:51:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-agaoByQqJadT4i0i2by0
|
Will Donald Trump make at least three tweets in 2023?
|
This market will resolve in YES if at least three (3) tweets are published from Donald Trump's twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) in 2023.
Him getting hacked DOES COUNT.
|
2023-01-22T07:21:30
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:50:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rmT6JDxJN4DvwUlh7Vlh
|
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2025?
|
Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2025 than the end of January 2024.
[image]Criteria clarification:
-If the clock is at the exact same time as 2024 (90 seconds) this resolves NO.
-If the bulletin doesn't release a statement on the clock's new time by the end of February (PST) then this market will resolve to 50%.
|
2023-01-22T04:19:39
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-01-28T14:20:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R2i0ZhC4AtgVmJAoLdbP
|
From now, will Google announce layoffs of another batch of workers before the end of 2023?
|
Note that the event in this article:
Alphabet cuts 12,000 jobs after pandemic hiring spree, refocuses on AI | Reuters
does NOT count. It has to be due to an announcement after that one and it has to be announced as a lay off. Ambiguous cases may be debated in the comments and resolved at my discretion.
|
2023-01-21T23:36:45
|
2023-08-06T18:33:14
|
2023-08-06T18:33:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gahrhRle4NZVQWXMSK9R
|
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2024
|
Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2024 than the end of January 2023 (90s)
[image]
|
2023-01-21T14:07:20
|
2024-01-21T20:59:00
|
2024-01-23T19:02:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Tzh9jRZ3BD7YoY96VOL9
|
Will the US avoid default by raising the debt ceiling?
|
The US has already hit the debt ceiling in Jan 2023 and the Treasury department is using accounting maneuvers to keep paying the bills with so-called "extraordinary measures" (1), which are expected to run out in the summer. At that point, if no action has been taken, the US government will be unable to pay its bills, aka default. Or, the US government could potentially choose to deploy some "gimmick" to circumvent the debt ceiling and avoid default.
Will Congress raise the debt ceiling, or will the US government be forced to either default or deploy a "gimmick" to circumvent the debt ceiling?
Resolves based on which of these happens first:
Resolves YES if the US raises or suspends the debt ceiling
Resolves NO if the US defaults on its debt (see @/jack/will-the-us-government-default-on-i )
Resolves NO if the US circumvents the debt ceiling, e.g. by "minting the coin", issuing forms of debt that bypass the debt limit like premium or perpetual bonds, issuing debt that violates the statutory debt ceiling, declaring the debt ceiling unconstitutional, etc. See the markets below for a non-comprehensive list of examples that would qualify.
The already ongoing "extraordinary measures" do not count because they are normal practice, and they only temporarily delay running out of funds due to the debt ceiling, they do not circumvent it.
(1) Extraordinary measures are things like temporarily replacing bonds in federal employee's retirement accounts with IOUs (the bonds are put back with appropriate interest after the debt ceiling crisis is over). They were explicitly legalized by Congress after the 1985 debt ceiling crisis, and they stopped being extraordinary after we used them regularly for decades of past debt ceiling crises.
Grouped markets
[markets]
|
2023-01-21T13:29:31
|
2023-06-03T13:16:29
|
2023-06-03T13:16:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h9GkCELGXq0fwPyGyD82
|
Will the US government default (fail to pay its bills on time, not just Treasury debt) in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if the US federal government defaults on its debt or fails to pay its bills on time in 2023 in a non-technical manner. Otherwise NO.
Here debt is not just Treasury bond debt, but also US government obligations like Social Security, Medicare, military spending, etc. So if any form of "payment prioritization" is triggered, that would be a YES:
Yellen said Friday that any failure to pay a government bill would constitute a debt default
A "technical default" (a delay to payments for technical reasons not indicative of its ability or willingness to repay debt) does not count as YES. For example:
The US failing to pay obligations on time because of running out of money because of the debt ceiling is YES. Even missing the deadline to pay debt by a single day is sufficient.
If the US pays debt late because of computer problems, but there was enough money to pay it and the issue is quickly corrected, that is a "technical default" and not a YES. (This happened to US treasuries in the 1979.)
See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-default.asp for what I mean by "technical default", which would not count as YES.
If a country briefly delays interest payments for a few of its bonds for technical reasons not indicative of its ability or willingness to repay debt, as the U.S. Treasury did once in the 1970s, it might have technically defaulted for a time. So long as the repayment snag is quickly ironed out, such a "default" is unlikely to have any long-term consequences, or to be widely viewed as one.
See also this market on a default on Treasury bond debt specifically:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-us-government-default-on-t)
|
2023-01-21T13:10:00
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:14:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uTxCOBPwVZ8nQ8WC0hsM
|
Will the US debt ceiling be raised in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if the US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended in 2023, otherwise NO.
Whether the US hits the debt ceiling or not does not matter for this market. E.g. if the US hits the debt ceiling and then it's raised, that still counts as YES.
Removing the debt ceiling entirely to allow unlimited debt issuance (equivalent to raising it to infinity) would resolve YES.
Edit: Either a permanent or temporary change to the debt ceiling would count.
|
2023-01-21T10:31:26
|
2023-06-03T13:16:50
|
2023-06-03T13:16:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GpJ0tBjqgHycZleDjMoJ
|
Will a Democrat win the US 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-21T09:05:49
|
2024-11-06T15:47:48
|
2024-11-06T15:47:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6R1jWRFEYSe7pyPfCj70
|
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2024?
|
For it to count as a robotaxi fare, there must be no Tesla employee in the car and the car must drive to the customer without anyone it. This would technically include things like a remote driving system where a human remotely is driving the car.
|
2023-01-21T01:02:56
|
2024-12-31T13:00:00
|
2025-01-03T11:14:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1RjzyoOz5BNmhxlecXlD
|
Will Sundar Pichai be replaced as CEO of Alphabet by the end of 2023?
|
Personally, I don't think he was ever up to the job and the services have steadily degraded during his tenure. A change is LONG overdue. Will the Alphabet board make a change? Perhaps back to a founder?
|
2023-01-20T19:27:44
|
2023-12-31T20:36:55
|
2023-12-31T20:36:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i8mARQ05C0IS266iXysU
|
Will the Special Grand Jury in Fulton County Georgia recommend an indictment of someone(s) other than Donald Trump?
|
The Special Grand Jury cannot issue charges, but instead has more investigative powers than a normal grand jury. They finished work and completed their report with indictment recommendations last week and a hearing is set for the 24th to determine if that report is to be made public. This market resolves YES based on the reports recommendation of an indictment, resolves NO if recommends against an indictment.
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-20T15:59:45
|
2023-08-15T00:13:21
|
2023-08-15T00:13:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1BfpYYlIz09wXTy2DlSy
|
Will the Special Grand Jury in Fulton County Georgia recommend an indictment of Donald Trump?
|
The Special Grand Jury cannot issue charges, but instead has more investigative powers than a normal grand jury. They finished work and completed their report with indictment recommendations last week and a hearing is set for the 24th to determine if that report is to be made public. This market resolves YES based on the reports recommendation of an indictment, resolves NO if recommends against an indictment.
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-20T15:57:27
|
2023-08-15T00:12:37
|
2023-08-15T00:12:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pQMkLCdWW5nPh6ozcrb1
|
Will Boris Pistorius (german secretary of defence) be out of office before the next federal election?
|
Will resolve NO, if Boris Pistorius is still in office when the 2025 federal election is over.
Will resolve YES, if Boris Pistorius is not in office anymore before the 2025 federal election.
|
2023-01-20T11:33:24
|
2025-03-10T14:06:42
|
2025-03-10T14:06:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ScECVEdzuHF6SNrZBLe6
|
Will Russia open a second front in Ukraine by invading over the Belarus border during 2023?
|
Rumors have persisted for months that this is coming. It didn't happen in 2022, will it happen in 2023?
|
2023-01-20T11:00:14
|
2023-12-31T20:56:11
|
2023-12-31T20:56:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dLg6jIIiLlvZ083IwdX5
|
Will anyone between Larry Page or Sergey Brin return to Alphabet as an executive in 2023?
|
The NYT reports that Google executives are coming to its founders to seek help to fight against Microsoft. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/20/technology/google-chatgpt-artificial-intelligence.html
If Alphabet announces its founders are coming back to work (e.g: CEO, CTO, Special advisor...) in 2023, this market resolves to YES.
Related markets.
[markets][markets]Jan 20, 12:52pm: Will anyone between Larry Lage or Sergey Brin return to Alphabet as an executive in 2023? → Will anyone between Larry Page or Sergey Brin return to Alphabet as an executive in 2023?
|
2023-01-20T07:19:06
|
2023-12-31T18:59:00
|
2023-12-31T20:53:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oAGbHEQ6DbsY42cvYppw
|
Will all of the 5 big tech companies (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google) have a higher stock price at the end of 2023 than at the start?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-20T04:50:14
|
2023-12-31T04:00:49
|
2023-12-31T04:00:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I7BPd7YXQmDALRHPET1k
|
Will Destiny do at least two mass purges in the /r/Destiny subreddit by the end of June 30th, 2023?
|
Destiny wants the subreddit to be less like him and has regularly tried to ban away the haters. Will he do so again in two bursts by June?
Will resolve yes if Destiny announces two separate purges either on stream or in chat
|
2023-01-20T01:35:35
|
2023-06-29T16:59:00
|
2023-07-03T23:36:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xUuY3RHtSK2JzpftQIDF
|
Will Steven Crowder apologize for the Daily Wire controversy and phone call leaks?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T21:26:17
|
2023-04-01T05:00:45
|
2023-04-01T05:00:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4zOgan5xgRVVY3fbRkEj
|
Will Macron succeed in raising the retirement age?
|
If it applies to more than 60% of workers
|
2023-01-19T19:07:58
|
2023-05-05T06:13:41
|
2023-05-05T06:13:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cdIy886D7simPIIo4hZ0
|
Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Call* problem right?
|
With gratitude to https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-gpt4-get-the-monty-fall-proble
I will ask GPT-4 this question when I get the chance, either personally or by getting a friend to try it for me.
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, receives a phone call. You overhear him saying on the phone "yeah, I know, he picked right door, but what can I do?" He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
This question resolves to YES if GPT-4 says that there is no advantage to switching your choice or if it presents a coherent argument that there is an advantage to switching because the statement was intentional social manipulation to get you to stay on door 1, and resolves to NO otherwise.
I will only consider the actual first answer that I get from GPT-4, without trying different prompts. I will not use screenshots that people send me to resolve the question.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 pm
|
2023-01-19T15:45:52
|
2023-03-17T10:48:50
|
2023-03-17T10:48:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5OAGZCrEdFoJHvhFe1CC
|
Apple announces AR or VR glasses by EOY 2023
|
Apple has been rumored to be working on a set of AR or VR glasses. Market resolves on official announcement from an Apple source, not launch or rumors. Any kind of head-mounted stereoscopic viewing system qualifies, regardless of what kind of pass-through (AR) capabilities it has.
|
2023-01-19T13:16:53
|
2023-07-31T17:37:07
|
2023-07-31T17:37:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XPCwaCcgywfmEgB9l2Ng
|
Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film ‘Rust’?
|
conviction of any crime and guilty pleas count for YES resolution
Jan 19, 11:32am: Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film? → Will Alec Baldwin be convicted of the charges related to the shooting death on the set of his film ‘Rust’?
|
2023-01-19T08:31:37
|
2023-04-20T12:57:45
|
2023-04-20T12:57:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l0ZAxlJ7gu8hP4lUSCBl
|
Will the House hold a floor vote on abolishing the income tax and replacing it with a national sales tax?
|
Must happen during the 118th congress. Supposedly this was part of the deal McCarthy made to secure his votes for speaker.
|
2023-01-19T07:10:16
|
2025-01-03T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:33:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5pp2xi5S6kACJnQp4BHc
|
Will Liz Cheney visit Ukraine during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T07:08:07
|
2023-12-31T20:19:33
|
2023-12-31T20:19:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3fEBdUbnY0MJb6MrlPDJ
|
Will Adam Kinzinger visit Ukraine during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T07:07:30
|
2023-12-31T20:25:31
|
2023-12-31T20:25:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-72OOcZumQda8Cf8XgPpM
|
Will Liz Cheney visit Taiwan during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T07:06:49
|
2023-12-31T20:15:53
|
2023-12-31T20:15:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zIPdOpdjY22i3TCQFbae
|
Will MTG visit Taiwan during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T07:05:58
|
2023-12-31T20:38:26
|
2023-12-31T20:38:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hq5SkfrDqYkRB8pnv1ua
|
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T07:05:31
|
2023-12-31T20:27:41
|
2023-12-31T20:27:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3JET8kDCFhH7bANJCuNX
|
Will Kevin McCarthy visit Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ukraine during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T07:04:28
|
2023-12-31T20:25:52
|
2023-12-31T20:25:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7MQezTR0m5EuUs2u49Ie
|
Will Matt Gaetz visit Taiwan during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T07:03:29
|
2023-12-31T20:19:06
|
2023-12-31T20:19:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hfMGqaX0Ojk2LSDO6tJ0
|
Will AOC visit Taiwan during 2023?
|
Jan 19, 1:39pm: Will AOC visit Taiwan during 2023v → Will AOC visit Taiwan during 2023?
|
2023-01-19T07:02:42
|
2023-12-31T20:32:31
|
2023-12-31T20:32:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WR4QTPnS53son0cyhfND
|
Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T07:02:14
|
2023-12-31T20:56:25
|
2023-12-31T20:56:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1cfL5vOs8kKyexBtXjzR
|
Will there be a social media with >10k users that is based around users interacting mainly with AI profiles with AI generated content by the end of 2023?
|
Must have the majority of the interaction on the site be around AI profiles, as long as the human part is less than 50% of the average users time.
Must be marketed explicitly as a feature, users must know they are interacting with an AI.
|
2023-01-19T06:16:41
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-02-01T05:52:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tjs9GF6C7r7Gqle3QXMQ
|
Will the U.S. default on its debt during the current debt ceiling negotiations
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-19T05:17:35
|
2023-06-03T07:30:52
|
2023-06-03T07:30:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F5a6DluE9xI5ToEU7NxX
|
Will Destiny Stream Hogwarts Legacy in 2023?
|
Resolves yes if Destiny purchases and plays the game on stream
Game releases Febuary 10th
EDIT: Updated Resolution conditon
[image]
|
2023-01-18T23:02:35
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:36:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Zj5agn5qrD9Qsz4k80EW
|
Will the US and Germany both send tanks to Ukraine by the end of July 2023?
|
Germany is currently saying they will only send tanks if the US does too. Requires both countries deliver the tanks to Ukraine.
|
2023-01-18T20:48:11
|
2023-07-31T20:59:00
|
2023-08-10T21:19:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X0vFQqL0UGAp3TMe10LE
|
Will Caltrain electrification finish by end of 2025?
|
Currently Caltrain electric trains are anticipated to start service in late-2024. The original timeline projected a 2021 opening, which was subsequently postponed to 2022, and now 2024.
Resolves YES if passengers can ride an electric train on regular passenger service by December 31, 2025. Otherwise NO.
Longer-dated version of:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Yoav/will-caltrain-electrification-finis)
|
2023-01-18T18:41:48
|
2024-12-23T08:11:37
|
2024-12-23T08:11:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G4HwTMXhBH7Wvp0ZorcO
|
Will Elon Musk step down as Twitter CEO before August 1st 2023?
|
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Timarket/will-elon-musk-step-down-as-twitter?r=VGltYXJrZXQ)
|
2023-01-18T17:42:29
|
2023-06-06T14:57:32
|
2023-06-06T14:57:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-poDn6vRym4KQtWU1jjzp
|
Will the average length of a 9-inning Major League Baseball game be less than 2:40 during the 2023 regular season?
|
Major League Baseball has introduced significant rule changes to improve pace of play during the 2023 season. The league has introduced a pitch clock, limited defensive shifting, and made the bases larger.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts
According to Baseball Reference, the average 9-inning game length was 3:03 during the 2022 regular season. An average game length less than 2:40 would be a decrease of over 23 minutes per game.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml
According to ESPN, use of the pitch clock during the 2022 MiLB season reduced the length of an average 9-inning game by 25 minutes, from 3:03 to 2:38. The article claims that MLB would like to replicate this effect in the upcoming season.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34690249/pitch-clock-cut-minor-league-games-25-minutes-two-hours-38-minutes?platform=amp
This market will resolve at the end of the 2023 MLB regular season based on the Baseball Reference data here:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml
The market will resolve YES if the Time/9I column reads less than 2:40 for the 2023 regular season. If the column reads 2:40 or more, the market will resolve NO.
|
2023-01-18T17:00:02
|
2023-10-01T21:59:00
|
2023-10-01T23:26:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pCmUFPYZ9kM0Nedzazaf
|
Will Chile have a new Constitution approved until the end of 2023?
|
Context: https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/reaction-chiles-new-constitutional-roadmap/
|
2023-01-18T16:11:12
|
2023-12-17T18:59:00
|
2023-12-18T04:42:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8bqvVmVTKFviYwlYfTu0
|
Will Infowars go down?
|
In Oct 2022, Mark Bankston, the plaintiff's attorney in the Texas suit against Infowars, predicted that due to the lawsuits brought by the Sandy Hook families against Alex Jones, Infowars LLC, and Free Speech Systems, Infowars "wasn't long for this world". He and podcast hosts proceeded to speculate about who would get the show's assets, including the desk and even the "Infowars" website and trademark.
However he also said he didn't think Alex Jones would ever fully stop broadcasting, merely that Infowars would never again be what it was.
So, will Infowars actually go down? I will use my best judgement to resolve this question. Some things that would cause a YES resolution:
-Infowars becoming defunct as a company (obviously)
-Banned dot video, Infowars website, Infowars store ceasing to operate
-A significant reduction in staff, tech, or streaming or a loss of the studio so that the show no longer looks visually professional and/or is much harder for a standard user to access
If by market close, I can still go to Infowars and watch the show on some platform and it looks like it has for the past decade, market will resolve NO. I only will resolve YES if it's clearly apparent that Infowars is nothing like it currently is. A very apparent fall from grace. Like, Alex Jones still doing a podcast from a basement studio doesn't count as Infowars.
|
2023-01-18T13:07:30
|
2024-11-14T22:57:18
|
2024-11-14T22:57:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R2QQ4XblKJGicUCfx6oV
|
Will any party or independent that didn’t win a seat in the 2019 U.K. general election in Great Britain win a seat in the next general election in Great Britain?
|
Resolves to YES if any party other than Conservative, Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, Green Party of England and Wales, or the Speaker, wins any constituency in Great Britain in the next U.K. general election (so the seat has to be in England, Scotland or Wales, not Northern Ireland). Independents count if they appear on the ballot as independents, so for example Neale Hanvey winning in 2019 does not count because he was listed as an SNP candidate even though he was suspended.
Examples of parties that would count include the Reform Party, the Scottish Greens, the Ashfield Independents, and new parties formed by splits (simply renaming a party does not count).
Jan 18, 11:44am: Will any party or independent that didn’t win a seat in the 2019 U.K. general election in Great Britain win a seat in the next general election im Great Britain? → Will any party or independent that didn’t win a seat in the 2019 U.K. general election in Great Britain win a seat in the next general election in Great Britain?
|
2023-01-18T03:02:05
|
2024-07-05T00:59:40
|
2024-07-05T00:59:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EFnuzjajxOV6K4hWF4ME
|
Will the average price of a dozen eggs be below $2.00 at the End of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if FRED reports a US city average price <= $2.00 per dozen eggs for December 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
Between 2017 and 2022 the price was between $2.10 and $1.20 and this market would have resolved YES most of the time.
[image]The question can be seen as a proxy for the persistence (or not) of food inflation in 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-18T00:34:30
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-13T12:12:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wasL6OabKnSkM9XqLgKS
|
Would FTX US be solvent if it was all that existed? ie does it have more assets than debts as a single entity?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-17T16:58:50
|
2024-01-18T15:59:00
|
2024-02-27T16:51:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3WiNlh6nl5mf1JSpofht
|
Will Tesla announce a new consumer vehicle model during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-17T15:40:10
|
2023-12-31T20:32:52
|
2023-12-31T20:32:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4
|
Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?
|
This question will only resolve YES for direct engagement between Iran and Israel. Here are some potential scenarios that would each independently resolve YES:
Israel conducting airstrikes on targets inside Iran and/or the Iranians shooting down Israeli aircraft in Iranian airspace. Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel and unambiguously NOT conducted by the US.
Targeted assassinations conducted by either side against government or military leaders of the other regardless of where they take place.
If it is shown Iran has boots on the ground in Gaza operating alongside Hamas or even directing their operation tactically in theater that would count, but ID needs to be irrefutable or acknowledged by Tehran.
|
2023-01-17T15:38:05
|
2023-12-30T23:44:48
|
2023-12-30T23:44:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7lCNRYCNElYgKq8YI29V
|
Baseball's new rule changes are still in place at the end of the 2023 season
|
Major league baseball is making significant rules changes in the 2023 seasons: * pitch timer, defensive shifts, and bigger bases
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts
This is about whether the changes are applied through the entire 2023 regular season without being changed in a game-affecting way.
Note this doesn't cover the post-season.
|
2023-01-17T09:41:53
|
2023-10-06T09:08:10
|
2023-10-06T09:08:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XtxrxP1MqEFswpFTVjC3
|
Will a member of United States congress participate in a gaming livestream before end of March 2024?
|
AOC amogus is a prime example of a YES resolution. People be desparate when it's election silly season
Must be a video game, some boomer playing golf won't count
|
2023-01-17T04:25:04
|
2023-07-22T19:26:45
|
2023-07-22T19:26:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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