id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-ST1dX6VsaNnQ1hjZkwl4 | Will PPMD compete in the SSBM singles bracket of a major tournament before 2025? | A major tournament will be defined for the purposes of this question as an offline tournament with at least 200 entrants AND at least 2 of the most recent SSBMRank's top 10 players in attendance.
Alternatively, any tournament with at least 5 of the most recent SSBMRank's top 10 players in attendance, including invita... | 2023-01-17T01:49:23 | 2024-12-31T01:30:43 | 2024-12-31T01:30:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BDbWGpnckPOeFFxCB9uG | Will Romania qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying_Group_I
https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/ | 2023-01-17T01:35:15 | 2023-11-20T08:29:44 | 2023-11-20T08:29:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yRDixgBdgGEv5DKlz5Yn | Will Rudy Giuliani be indicted for any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-16T21:49:40 | 2023-08-14T20:05:23 | 2023-08-14T20:05:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OZR7CWf1uNlzYSS2rVrB | Will Amazon end its hiring freeze by June 2023? | Resolves YES if Amazon has substantially resumed hiring for coporate roles (including SDE) by 2023-06-01. | 2023-01-16T19:19:45 | 2023-06-01T07:47:49 | 2023-06-01T07:47:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xeigEGyAnyqsx2dc03vP | Will Michael Lewis release his book about SBF before a verdict is reached in his trial? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-16T16:30:24 | 2023-10-04T14:50:22 | 2023-10-04T14:50:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5qmRJ9kM6VBQJYmdAxz6 | Will Donald Trump be ruled in contempt by any court for any reason during 2023? | Jan 16, 7:09pm: Will Donald Trump be held in contempt by any court for any reason during 2023? → Will Donald Trump be ruled in contempt by any court for any reason during 2023? | 2023-01-16T16:09:15 | 2023-12-31T20:43:04 | 2023-12-31T20:43:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OS8oAd8RaNz12oWqdB18 | Will a Steam game break the concurrent player record in 2023? | With steam hitting its highest ever concurrent players, will a game capture an audience large enough to beat previous single-game player records?
2022 player peak was 1,325,305 concurrent players playing lost Ark
2018 player peak was ~3.2m concurrent players playing Pubg
If there is a higher record than that, let me... | 2023-01-16T16:00:19 | 2023-12-31T05:29:00 | 2023-12-31T22:54:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3DNt8IUy5bD4zaBKyFqa | A software vulnerability, publicly revealed in 2023, will get WaPo, The Guardian, Le Monde, and El País coverage | Resolves YES when these four newspapers’ websites each publish designated coverage of a newly revealed software security vulnerability/exploit as a notable issue, and the vulnerability is assigned a CVE identifier in 2023. Coverage can be in the form of articles, interviews, blogs, videos, etc., and doesn’t have to app... | 2023-01-16T14:16:16 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:46:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R2GgW7NBpYSo7puq9BoT | 1) GPT-4 will be released in the next couple months—and yes, it will be a big deal. | Rumors have been flying recently about GPT-4, the next generation of OpenAI’s powerful generative language model.
Expect GPT-4 to be released early in the new year and to represent a dramatic step-change performance improvement relative to GPT-3 and 3.5. As manic as the recent hype around ChatGPT has been, it will be ... | 2023-01-16T12:59:36 | 2023-11-30T20:59:00 | 2023-12-11T17:00:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5wp8SxIUwCWUmXiSIs3K | 5) Search will change more in 2023 than it has since Google went mainstream in the early 2000s. | Search is the primary means by which we navigate and access digital information. It lies at the heart of the modern internet experience.
Today’s large language models can read and write with a level of sophistication that a few years ago would have seemed inconceivable. This will have profound implications for how we ... | 2023-01-16T12:59:08 | 2023-11-30T20:59:00 | 2023-12-12T05:26:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iPA0LlWqIhGjqzmeeb2z | 8) The number of research projects that build on or cite AlphaFold will surge. | DeepMind’s AlphaFold platform, first announced in late 2020, solved one of life’s great mysteries: the protein folding problem. AlphaFold is able to accurately predict the three-dimensional shape of a protein based solely on its one-dimensional amino acid sequence, a landmark achievement that had eluded human researche... | 2023-01-16T12:58:31 | 2023-11-30T20:59:00 | 2023-12-12T05:27:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3aHeGrXpMWFSN8Xjql29 | 9) DeepMind, Google Brain, and/or OpenAI will undertake efforts to build a foundation model for robotics. | The term “foundation model,” introduced last year by a team of Stanford researchers, refers to a massive AI model trained on broad swaths of data that, rather than being built for a specific task, can perform effectively on a wide range of different activities.
Foundation models have been a key driver of recent progre... | 2023-01-16T12:58:03 | 2023-11-30T20:59:00 | 2023-12-12T05:27:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qv2QSogVSqW9uiC9imyV | Will Destiny Go Vegan Before 2025? | It has to be for atleast one week. | 2023-01-16T11:32:45 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-08T01:56:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uAE6atfSH0F6xbJbU1eu | Will Michael Lewis testify at SBF's trial? | Lewis has been embedded with SBF for over a year, so presumably he has some interesting stories to share not only with his readers, but also with a jury. | 2023-01-16T10:21:06 | 2023-10-31T22:24:28 | 2023-10-31T22:24:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Yr3t9bqb8JOhpX24sKTk | Will Vladimir Putin retire and appoint his successor in advance of the 2024 election? | Vladimir Putin is the current President of Russia. There is speculation that he may choose to retire and appoint his successor in advance of the 2024 presidential election in Russia. This would mean that instead of running for another term, Putin would select someone to take over the presidency before the election take... | 2023-01-16T09:48:24 | 2024-03-18T10:11:01 | 2024-03-18T10:11:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-69xnvPJeA0iGMPi027b9 | Will the House of Representatives vote to expel George Santos by the end of 2023? | The last time it happened was James Traficant, who had already been convicted of multiple crimes at the time of his removal.
UPDATE: Santos must be removed. Otherwise this would have already resolved based on the last vote to expel that failed. | 2023-01-16T07:58:55 | 2023-12-01T11:01:20 | 2023-12-01T11:01:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-suBpumwfBnZVy4Kc0qu5 | Will there be a deadly military incident between China and Vietnam before 10th Feb 2024? | Resolves yes if there is a clash between military or border police resulting in a death (or multiple). Deniable assets like fishermen do not count, unless they are reported as military undercover by a reputable broadsheet. Death of tourists or sailors on shore leave do not count. | 2023-01-16T07:47:07 | 2024-02-10T08:59:00 | 2024-02-10T10:41:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v5opXQ4rqAZtE4vPeg5k | Will the next DnD campaign that Destiny plays in start before August 2023? | Resolves YES if destiny ever plays in a campaign that starts before august 2023. Additionally Destiny needs to join the campaign before the end of 2023.
Resolves NO if destiny dosen't play in a DnD campaign before 2024, or the campaign he plays in starts after July 31. 2023. | 2023-01-16T04:28:41 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-01-03T18:10:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xgLCOjQUMdZkZB5pkxCS | will there be any failed booster landings by spacex in 2023? | spacex are planning to launch 100 falcon 9's in 2023
this will be resolved yes if spacex fails 1 or more booster landings in 2023
only falcon 9 block 5 boosters count | 2023-01-16T04:11:54 | 2023-12-28T21:50:13 | 2023-12-28T21:50:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a01aHewEJNDOl4fIKaAU | Will the Ukraine war end by 2025? | The war will be considered to have ended if a ceasefire beginning before 2025 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed by 2025. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire. | 2023-01-16T03:11:36 | 2025-01-01T13:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:56:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7HoZa5XCIC5rUMZarsKF | Will Finland supply Ukraine with at least 8 leopard 2 tanks by the end of 2023 | Resolves YES if the decision to send 8. or more Leopard 2 tanks to ukraine before 2024. Resolves NO if It sends no tanks or less than 8.
Important to observe is the fact that Finlnad only has 200 Leopard 2 tanks. Finland sending 8 tanks is equivalent of them sending 4 % of finnish MBTs.
https://puolustusvoimat.fi/doc... | 2023-01-16T02:34:22 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-01-10T03:21:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-or92qjxBiQQ46aF4Yfge | Will Ron DeSantis file to run for president by June 30, 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, Ronald Dion DeSantis or his authorized representative does at least one of the following:
-Files a Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
-Amends an e... | 2023-01-16T02:14:23 | 2023-05-24T13:46:02 | 2023-05-24T13:46:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-elLUNFk2Rs5zu165mdsp | Will forces from a NATO member country enter Belarus before Q4 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-16T00:39:57 | 2023-09-30T14:59:00 | 2023-09-30T23:59:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BeqSSoAva5ChoynbemXD | Will Joe Biden Die before the end of his presidency | If Joe Biden gets a second term in his presidency that is also included. Will resolve yes in january 2025 or january 2029 given Joe Biden is alive.
Close date updated to 2029-01-20 11:59 pm | 2023-01-15T23:14:57 | 2025-01-20T11:44:23 | 2025-01-20T11:44:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1v0Qsj7LRl7WE0Md8BYq | Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-15T19:42:11 | 2023-12-31T14:15:09 | 2023-12-31T14:15:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UaIAOBUmM3OpyFMdyU2T | Will Netanyahu be convicted of a crime by end of 2024? | Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel (1996-99, 2009-21, 2022-), has been under investigation for bribery/corruption/fraud since 2016. He was indicted in 2019, and his ongoing trial began in 2020.
Some articles I found: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/world/middleeast/netanyahu-corruption-charges-israel.... | 2023-01-15T19:31:31 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T16:10:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HbA5q9YAnaZoV8UmFo2e | Will GPT-4 be Time Person of the Year in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-15T16:55:00 | 2023-12-06T13:27:55 | 2023-12-06T13:27:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iGNl0uQATkiV5xPFBgfv | Will Ethereum trade above $5k at any point in 2024? | Resolves according to Coingecko. | 2023-01-15T15:22:07 | 2024-12-31T05:00:00 | 2024-12-31T10:33:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nIJNWRoDBnIn2vlTDpgu | Will Ethereum go above $4k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | Resolves according to Coingecko.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/will-ethereum-go-above-3k-for-at-le)Jan 17, 11:24am: Will Ethereum go above $4k for at least 24 hours before 2023? → Will Ethereum go above $4k for at least 24 hours before 2024? (Sorry everyone, I can't believe I messed up the yea... | 2023-01-15T15:18:44 | 2023-12-31T05:00:00 | 2023-12-31T05:06:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qmyW6X0JqxathSSiTq5i | Tesla's market cap is higher than Bitcoin's on January 1st, 2025 |
Close date updated to 2025-01-01 3:59 pm
Close date updated to 2024-12-31 12:59 am
Close date updated to 2024-12-31 12:59 pm | 2023-01-15T01:24:41 | 2024-12-31T12:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:30:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LctzeOT9AXPayA1pAOtD | Will there be a right-wing terrorist attack in the Netherlands in 2023? | The growth of the extreme right in the Netherlands has been causing concerns of academics and government officials.
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/10/terrorism-tzar-warns-about-far-right-violence-as-mps-and-journalists-face-abuse/
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/11/far-right-extremism-is-quietly-increasing-res... | 2023-01-15T01:01:32 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:34:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5DWpygnYqdMk2V6btmjM | Will there be an Effective Altruist member of the US Congress by January 2025? | Based on whether they self-identify as an Effective Altruist. | 2023-01-14T13:30:36 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T16:06:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4ksSj4uraDNX0BjMvLE9 | Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14) | Some of Joe Biden's lawyers discovered in his Delaware home some classified documents he kept from Obama's presidency. Biden's team returned the documents and claims it was an accident. However, Kevin McCarthy called for the launch of an investigation. Here's the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Bid... | 2023-01-14T13:28:40 | 2023-04-13T23:59:00 | 2023-04-14T21:35:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oVFOV6ljqisaWzQLZ6Kn | Will Christian Lindner (german secretary of finance) be out of office before the next federal election? | Will resolve NO, if Christian Lindner is still in office when the planned 2025 federal election is over.
Will resolve YES, if Christian Lindner is not in office anymore before the planned 2025 federal election. | 2023-01-14T12:16:44 | 2024-11-07T10:20:06 | 2024-11-07T10:20:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2U7LoZ0TKfBQplmqg7x1 | Will destiny and sneako debate about vaccines/Covid again by the end of April? | Destiny and sneako have had multiple conversations/debates about vaccines and Covid in the last year. Mostly recently going on sneako stream and watching the documentary "died suddenly".
Close date updated to 2023-04-30 11:59 pm | 2023-01-14T09:46:28 | 2023-04-30T20:59:00 | 2023-05-02T02:36:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j2CEb6gJBwDc3HQt7nc2 | Will any product built using a large language model receive FDA clearance by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-14T08:52:35 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:59:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0BIREXmOLJ2WZNVAatm3 | Will the average price of a dozen eggs drop below $3.50 in February 2023? | Resolves YES if FRED reports a US city average price <= $3.50 per dozen eggs for February 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
The average price for November 2022 was $3.59. The average price for December 2022 was $4.25.
I will not bet in this market.
[image] | 2023-01-13T22:10:08 | 2023-03-14T09:01:28 | 2023-03-14T09:01:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0 | Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-13T19:08:48 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:35:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RAVc5vbdNDnelUVklSda | Will Alphabet make a 10 figure or more investment in any startup during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-13T14:39:59 | 2023-10-27T14:29:16 | 2023-10-27T14:29:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kqZgS7mfonUKG2gKqe2Z | Will Google make a 10 figure investment in Anthropic by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-13T14:38:50 | 2023-10-27T14:23:42 | 2023-10-27T14:23:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EPQ4hi7nc0Cvf6CXBqs1 | Will Hakeem Jefferies visit Taiwan during the 118th Congress? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-13T14:25:27 | 2025-01-03T11:52:11 | 2025-01-03T11:52:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-B3ycDj8Co62XEOFvcHZz | 1. Airfare will fall at least 5% compared to 2022. | (Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre
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Average fares are currently 36% higher than they were 12 months ago. (Adjusting for inflation, airfare is up 24%.) In 2023, I expect that... | 2023-01-13T11:49:35 | 2023-12-23T20:59:00 | 2023-12-28T21:15:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PN85Oo92ON0b4Hvi7TAi | 12. One of the big 6 US airlines will buy out a smaller carrier. | (Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre
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Sticking my neck out here, but I think there’s a decent chance one of the six largest US airlines (American, Delta, United, Alaska, JetBl... | 2023-01-13T11:47:58 | 2023-12-23T20:59:00 | 2023-12-28T21:23:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KYIsXtx7BBYwVkmMgGi8 | Will Elon Musk die in 2023? | Resolves to YES if Elon Musk dies anytime in 2023. | 2023-01-13T11:47:08 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-02T17:20:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cZU6VPKksHvpae4J2hRz | Will Nick Bostrom be removed or step down from his position as director of the Future of Humanity Institute? (within the end of 2023) | (this post is referencing this https://nickbostrom.com/oldemail.pdf)
(and this https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/blacks-more-stupid-than-whites-wrote-oxford-don-8gsj8l0wf)
| 2023-01-13T10:54:40 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:54:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fGWxeNMZnX7hFxc6GVRA | Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote? | I have worded the question carefully, but the general thing I am asking is if there will be a significant third party run in 2024 (something akin to a Eugene V. Debs). Resolves as "YES" if a single candidate that is neither a reigistered Republican or Democrat wins 5% of the national popular vote or some greater amount... | 2023-01-13T10:14:32 | 2024-12-29T13:36:07 | 2024-12-29T13:36:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OAiVVRA6HUK22zaLyFFr | Was US life expectancy higher for the Hispanic population compared to the White population in 2022? | Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the Hispanic population in 2022 is strictly larger than that for the non-Hispanic White population as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.
For reference the provisional life expectancy for 2021 were 77.7 and 76.4 years for the Hispanic ... | 2023-01-13T08:12:08 | 2023-11-29T06:30:56 | 2023-11-29T06:30:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7kQAiVI18xTTcI2dpPMU | Did US life expectancy increase for the Native American population in 2022? | Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.
The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 65.2 years (https://www.cdc.go... | 2023-01-13T08:12:05 | 2023-11-29T06:30:12 | 2023-11-29T06:30:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VyBAXUAPh2tk3m7BcRPL | Did US life expectancy increase for the Black population in 2022? | Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the non-Hispanic Black population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.
The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 70.8 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pd... | 2023-01-13T08:11:59 | 2023-11-29T06:31:39 | 2023-11-29T06:31:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yNKcMoEi2r1uTdvvCc4J | Did US life expectancy increase for the White population in 2022? | Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the non-Hispanic White population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.
The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 76.4 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pd... | 2023-01-13T08:11:57 | 2023-11-29T06:29:02 | 2023-11-29T06:29:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4juXHfBuI15tCLEzE3Ok | Did US life expectancy increase for the Hispanic population in 2022? | Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the Hispanic population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.
The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 77.7 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf). I will... | 2023-01-13T08:11:50 | 2023-11-29T06:29:29 | 2023-11-29T06:29:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-feYJVqMw6u5Ev4eliMVN | Did US life expectancy increase in 2022? | Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for all races and origins in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 (76.4) as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.
Notice that this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released in August ... | 2023-01-13T08:11:44 | 2023-11-29T06:33:23 | 2023-11-29T06:33:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v0ZSzbjKfWvh5VsxjC6q | Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2023? | Resolves YES if #1 he is convicted of a crime, and #2 is sent to prison by Dec 1st 11:59pm, 2023. He must be physically at the prison to resolve YES. | 2023-01-13T06:09:26 | 2023-11-03T11:47:22 | 2023-11-03T11:47:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GE0X2hWCvub4CnaIuj8U | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by July 1? | including tests | 2023-01-13T05:33:49 | 2023-06-30T21:59:00 | 2023-07-09T23:16:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FjrcOK14SIlyvLgHoyUp | Will SBF be in prison by June 2023? | Resolves YES if #1 he is convicted of a crime, and #2 is sent to prison by May 31st 11:59pm, 2023. He must be physically at the prison to resolve YES.
| 2023-01-13T03:59:16 | 2023-05-30T21:59:00 | 2023-05-31T18:27:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r2QIsKcOAFmtz86xTc8N | If the SBF case goes to jury trial, will he be found Not Guilty on 1 or more charges? | I know, crazy, but what if he's not guilty?
https://sambf.substack.com
Deadline will be extended if necessary. | 2023-01-12T17:43:54 | 2023-11-02T18:17:27 | 2023-11-02T18:17:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yc9iPByQmrx1hjsMBofY | Will Destiny do an IRL stream with Aella before the end of 2023? | This market will resolve yes if Aella and Destiny appear together, in person, on a livestream before December 31st, 2023. | 2023-01-12T15:12:54 | 2023-09-24T10:16:41 | 2023-09-24T10:16:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-o5zwMpcwefpStBSUcQhT | Will Gerasimov still lead Russia's invasion of Ukraine on June 30? | On January 14, Russian Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, was named as "commander of the combined forces group for the special military operation in Ukraine", that is, Russia's chief battlefield commander in the Ukraine war. The previous commander, Gen. Surovikin, was demoted after just three months.
The market... | 2023-01-12T09:48:33 | 2023-07-14T14:59:00 | 2023-07-16T10:23:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Xuy7eDHNUVjEtNqdDyCg | Will Nick Bostrom step down as Director of FHI by the end of 2023? | Nick Bostrom recently apoligized for a racist email he sent in 1995. Will this lead to him stepping down as director of FHI?
See this tweet for context. | 2023-01-11T22:36:11 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:52:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5CbqG6kmf9WsJhGXvYHb | Will Anthropic remain independent by EOY 2024? | Resolves to No if Anthropic is bought or absorbed by some other company working on AI (e.g., Alphabet, Microsoft, OpenAI, ...) by end of 2024, or if some entity like this gets a majority share. | 2023-01-11T18:42:41 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:09:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SmzyKeC8zlLszuH39Tw5 | Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of 2023? | Meaning at point of market close - not "at any point before market close".
Same resolution criteria as this other market, just for end of 2023:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo) | 2023-01-11T18:35:11 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-11T13:09:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pHmjDXYeZTLjyafRJuhY | Will Minecraft's End Poem be significantly altered or removed from Minecraft, or will any related legal action be taken against Julian Gough before Q3 2023? | [tweet]
Julian Gough, the poet behind Minecraft's final sequence the End Poem, never legally transfered the rights for the poem to Mojang or subsequently to Microsoft.
Julian Gough recently released a 10,000~ word blog post detailing the events that led up to this outcome, and relinquished all of his personal rights o... | 2023-01-11T17:49:21 | 2023-09-30T16:59:00 | 2023-10-01T02:37:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4sAe8oL2Rz44ZG2NxhYT | Will George Santos resign from Congress by the end of 2023? | Jan 11, 7:03pm: Will George Santos resign by the end of 2023? → Will George Santos resign from Congress by the end of 2023? | 2023-01-11T16:02:46 | 2023-12-01T14:40:24 | 2023-12-01T14:40:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nfka3NTi4z2F6Tbncrke | Will George Santos resign from congress by the end of the term? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-11T16:02:02 | 2023-12-01T15:13:13 | 2023-12-01T15:13:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IlbRywkDmf1LBDwNjpeg | Will more than 100 members of Congress visit Taiwan during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-11T14:52:21 | 2023-12-31T20:22:04 | 2023-12-31T20:22:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4EMOwsi1NYh0q6Jm6E4Z | Will more than 50 members of congress visit Taiwan in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-11T14:51:23 | 2023-12-31T20:57:41 | 2023-12-31T20:57:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xSU0RTag5iJX5KsAgUgv | Will there be Challenger 2 tanks in service in Ukraine by the end ofJune 2023? | Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-there-be-m1-abrams-tanks-in-se?referrer=NickelChen)(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-there-be-leopard-1-or-2-tanks) | 2023-01-11T08:04:18 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-07-04T09:46:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UFfDwEyfbA8XEEH5gf7g | Will Destiny be seen wearing a suit in the next 2 years? | This poll resolves YES if Destiny is seen in either video or photo form wearing a suit. If no such outfit is worn in the next 2 years this poll resolves NO.
In order for the suit to count Destiny needs to be photographed wearing it, this means that for example if Destiny goes to a wedding, even though it can be reason... | 2023-01-11T07:59:48 | 2023-11-26T13:30:46 | 2023-11-26T13:30:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BQkjtaVibr0UU4ugfjch | Will Elon Musk regain his title as "world's richest man" by the end of the decade? | https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/elon-musk-guinness-world-record-biggest-net-worth-drop.htm
This market will resolve YES is Elon is considered by Forbes to again be the world's richest man at any point prior to 1/1/2030.
As of Jan 2023 he sits at 2nd place below Bernard Arnault and above Gautam Adani.
https://www.fo... | 2023-01-11T06:55:54 | 2023-06-07T08:00:14 | 2023-06-07T08:00:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SUAUvbGYOSfWKrh75b2t | Will Ke Huy Quan (from Everything Everywhere All at Once) win the 2023 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor? | The Oscars will be presented on Sunday March 12, 2023.
Will resolve yes if Ke-Huy Quan (from Everything Everywhere All at Once) wins the best supporting actor award.
Close date updated to 2023-03-02 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-03-12 11:59 pm
Jan 16, 10:42am: Will Ke Huy Quan (from Everything Everywhere Al... | 2023-01-10T20:58:52 | 2023-03-12T17:45:20 | 2023-03-12T17:45:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Bh8qwKkcCBAi9h9KaPU | Will Lex Fridman interview Trump? | [markets] | 2023-01-10T20:15:42 | 2024-09-03T14:58:38 | 2024-09-03T14:58:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fZJa8vi9hA4bzjyNydl9 | Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on August 1, 2023? | To resolve with a load of bbc.com/news/health.
In order to maintain trust in market resolution, I will not trade in this market. | 2023-01-10T19:35:40 | 2023-08-01T16:59:00 | 2023-08-02T07:53:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mbUACWdXjbQ4n9A2O1hN | Will Henry Kissinger live to turn 100 years old? | Will Henry Kissinger still be alive on May 27th 2023, on his 100th birthday?
Close date updated to 2023-05-25 12:00 am | 2023-01-10T17:16:12 | 2023-05-26T15:00:00 | 2023-05-26T20:30:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lECvkgCOADFmgZKjDMcQ | Will Lex Fridman interview AI by 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-10T16:34:43 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:41:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gIEbNcduncUacY9dN8hz | Is Microsoft to invest $7.5bn-$15bn in OpenAI? | Resolves YES if Microsoft has bought or will buy (in negotiations continuous with what is currently being rumoured, if they reflect reality) a stake in OpenAI for between $7.5bn and $15bn.
Jan 11, 12:05am: Has Microsoft invested $10bn in OpenAI? → Has Microsoft invested or is Microsoft to invest $7.5bn-$15bn in OpenAI... | 2023-01-10T16:01:43 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:33:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SMlZr2DiTTVBP55DcWix | Will “Attack on Titan” have an anime original ending? | Resolves “YES” if the remaining AoT anime story significantly differs from the manga – as soon as that can be determined.
Resolves “NO” otherwise – when the complete story is released.
May resolve “N/A” if the production gets canceled.
Minor stylistic polish, editorial rearrangements, and truncations don’t count. Wh... | 2023-01-10T14:26:13 | 2024-01-01T18:56:34 | 2024-01-01T18:56:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q1ueCUqqmeeGKI6MrF9U | Will the U. S. President pardon Donald Trump by February 2025? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump is pardoned (to any extent) by the president of the United States before February 1, 2025. | 2023-01-10T13:10:38 | 2025-01-31T21:01:00 | 2025-02-01T00:04:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o0xmg0VOY6uxltQc3wMO | Will the U. S. President pardon Julian Assange by February 2025? | Resolves YES if Julian Assange is pardoned (to any extent) by the president of the United States before February 1, 2025. | 2023-01-10T13:10:22 | 2025-01-31T21:01:00 | 2025-01-31T23:58:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t9R3YCXKuqSz3WBM4E1M | Will the U. S. President pardon Edward Snowden by February 2025? | Resolves YES if Edward Snowden is pardoned (to any extent) by the president of the United States before February 1, 2025. | 2023-01-10T13:09:59 | 2025-01-31T21:01:00 | 2025-01-31T23:58:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vWWXre5V5l5ELtcRvHkV | Will the existing China government collapse by 2025? | Peter Zeihan is convinced that the China will have increasing political turmoil: "This is a country that will not last a whole lot longer" (Jan 10 2023, https://youtu.be/fHs8wqj3WQY).
This market resolves YES if there is general geopolitical consensus in the West that the existing single-party Chinese state has collap... | 2023-01-10T08:54:34 | 2024-12-31T22:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:05:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5w1F14z5npjQ2Sy2Da9c | Will YouTube Music be discontinued before 2024? | Resolves YES if there is announcement by Google before January 1st 2024 that YouTube Music will be shut down (even if the shutdown actually happens after 2023).
If users are made to switch to another service (like what happened with Google Music) it will still resolve YES if the other service is different.
Also resol... | 2023-01-10T08:10:30 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-02T06:23:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DKUIZcnSwcJn3oh0RXs8 | Will YouTube Music be discontinued before 2025? | Resolves YES if there is announcement by Google before January 1st 2025 that YouTube Music will be shut down (even if the shutdown actually happens after 2024).
If users are made to switch to another service (like what happened with Google Music) it will still resolve YES if the other service is different.
Also resol... | 2023-01-10T07:46:33 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T11:47:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LRnuqcB6knLJumIassBt | Will Imran Khan be prime minister of Pakistan in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-10T07:03:16 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T16:06:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pCqrqhTKgDwPJ4t1S07K | Economy 2023: US inflation above 4.0%? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, ... | 2023-01-10T05:57:24 | 2024-01-13T14:59:00 | 2024-02-03T03:49:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m8kp4QPwMEbDOkEC1oGp | International affairs 2023: Biden visits Vietnam? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on international ... | 2023-01-10T05:48:27 | 2023-09-27T15:51:18 | 2023-09-27T15:51:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-agCipvhIjNz4AKiSIono | International affairs 2023: Turkey and Hungary approve the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on international ... | 2023-01-10T05:47:56 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T04:54:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mJwmxGtCuSUzcYApgSEv | International affairs 2023: No peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on international ... | 2023-01-10T05:47:42 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-02T08:07:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-58WH8yewgjogpJTfLWgG | Life in America 2023: The increase in car crash deaths continues? | (as of the most-updated NHTSA data)
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he ma... | 2023-01-10T05:45:19 | 2024-04-30T14:33:09 | 2024-04-30T14:33:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NHD4sk5CEplbWPEGuJi5 | Life in America 2023: Fewer murders in big cities than in 2022? | (as indicated by Jeff Asher’s data)
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he m... | 2023-01-10T05:43:40 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-16T03:17:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vSggBCnqpLfjzpKHQsg4 | American politics 2023: Mike Pence runs for president? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:41:03 | 2023-06-12T21:15:27 | 2023-06-12T21:15:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZRRy0am58V4cRo9XGNXl | American politics 2023: Republicans retain their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates ? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:40:50 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:14:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9nrEq1QwKxK6YfeHLOhq | American politics 2023: Donald Trump indicted on federal charges? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:39:36 | 2023-06-09T23:47:03 | 2023-06-09T23:47:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UTsHhOK1aZXeuouq3Z9B | American politics 2023: Hunter Biden indicted on federal charges? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:39:23 | 2023-09-14T13:38:22 | 2023-09-14T13:38:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fghnrqtqvC2uefyMTz77 | American politics 2023: Dianne Feinstein is still in office at year’s end? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:38:59 | 2023-10-06T20:52:51 | 2023-10-06T20:52:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FBUu9M4gFavEScCUgmHI | American politics 2023: Ron DeSantis leads year-end polling averages for the GOP nomination? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:38:48 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-02T07:43:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VWt4wQ4eov1b0dK4gtYV | American politics 2023: Kevin McCarthy ends the year as Speaker of the House? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:37:55 | 2023-12-31T01:02:55 | 2023-12-31T01:02:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-89xQ90L1zmO48q7QVBNx | American politics 2023: At least two bills pass that violate the “Hastert Rule”/majority-of-the-majority principle? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:37:15 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-02T08:52:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G0krb608arXZlJq3Pu3E | American politics 2023: Joe Biden is not impeached? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:36:26 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T04:49:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RbgyWbTUhkm5uCgWxXHS | American politics 2023: Joe Biden announces re-election bid? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:36:02 | 2023-04-29T17:31:18 | 2023-04-29T17:31:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-J2JYhP0HKO8dOoCcEwW0 | American politics 2023: The statutory debt ceiling is raised? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American polit... | 2023-01-10T05:34:11 | 2023-06-11T16:27:00 | 2023-06-11T16:27:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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