Datasets:
collingray
/
forecasting

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
id
stringlengths
8
25
question
stringlengths
13
209
description
stringlengths
0
7.87k
open_date
stringlengths
19
20
close_date
stringlengths
19
27
resolve_date
stringlengths
19
20
resolution
stringclasses
2 values
source
stringclasses
2 values
mani-ST1dX6VsaNnQ1hjZkwl4
Will PPMD compete in the SSBM singles bracket of a major tournament before 2025?
A major tournament will be defined for the purposes of this question as an offline tournament with at least 200 entrants AND at least 2 of the most recent SSBMRank's top 10 players in attendance. Alternatively, any tournament with at least 5 of the most recent SSBMRank's top 10 players in attendance, including invitationals like Summit, would also qualify. This market will resolve to YES if PPMD enters and then plays at least one set of Smash Melee singles in one of these major tournaments before 00:01 Jan 1, 2025 UTC+00:00. If he has not played at least one set in a major tournament by that time, this market will resolve to NO.
2023-01-17T01:49:23
2024-12-31T01:30:43
2024-12-31T01:30:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BDbWGpnckPOeFFxCB9uG
Will Romania qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying_Group_I https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/
2023-01-17T01:35:15
2023-11-20T08:29:44
2023-11-20T08:29:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yRDixgBdgGEv5DKlz5Yn
Will Rudy Giuliani be indicted for any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-16T21:49:40
2023-08-14T20:05:23
2023-08-14T20:05:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OZR7CWf1uNlzYSS2rVrB
Will Amazon end its hiring freeze by June 2023?
Resolves YES if Amazon has substantially resumed hiring for coporate roles (including SDE) by 2023-06-01.
2023-01-16T19:19:45
2023-06-01T07:47:49
2023-06-01T07:47:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xeigEGyAnyqsx2dc03vP
Will Michael Lewis release his book about SBF before a verdict is reached in his trial?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-16T16:30:24
2023-10-04T14:50:22
2023-10-04T14:50:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5qmRJ9kM6VBQJYmdAxz6
Will Donald Trump be ruled in contempt by any court for any reason during 2023?
Jan 16, 7:09pm: Will Donald Trump be held in contempt by any court for any reason during 2023? → Will Donald Trump be ruled in contempt by any court for any reason during 2023?
2023-01-16T16:09:15
2023-12-31T20:43:04
2023-12-31T20:43:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OS8oAd8RaNz12oWqdB18
Will a Steam game break the concurrent player record in 2023?
With steam hitting its highest ever concurrent players, will a game capture an audience large enough to beat previous single-game player records? 2022 player peak was 1,325,305 concurrent players playing lost Ark 2018 player peak was ~3.2m concurrent players playing Pubg If there is a higher record than that, let me know. To clarify: NOT the steam record for users, but an individual game's concurrent players.
2023-01-16T16:00:19
2023-12-31T05:29:00
2023-12-31T22:54:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3DNt8IUy5bD4zaBKyFqa
A software vulnerability, publicly revealed in 2023, will get WaPo, The Guardian, Le Monde, and El País coverage
Resolves YES when these four newspapers’ websites each publish designated coverage of a newly revealed software security vulnerability/exploit as a notable issue, and the vulnerability is assigned a CVE identifier in 2023. Coverage can be in the form of articles, interviews, blogs, videos, etc., and doesn’t have to appear in a paper issue. Resolves NO if this does not occur by the end of 2023, with a possible delay of a couple of days if there is uncertainty. Please post links in the comments when you think the threshold is met – I may miss it. For calibration, AFAICT “Heartbleed” (2014), “WannaCry” (2017), and “Log4shell” (2021) would meet these criteria in the past. “Shellshock” (2014) would not.
2023-01-16T14:16:16
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T16:46:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-R2GgW7NBpYSo7puq9BoT
1) GPT-4 will be released in the next couple months—and yes, it will be a big deal.
Rumors have been flying recently about GPT-4, the next generation of OpenAI’s powerful generative language model. Expect GPT-4 to be released early in the new year and to represent a dramatic step-change performance improvement relative to GPT-3 and 3.5. As manic as the recent hype around ChatGPT has been, it will be a mere prelude to the public reaction when GPT-4 is released. Buckle up. What will GPT-4 be like? Perhaps counterintuitively, we predict that it won’t be much larger than its predecessor GPT-3. In an influential research paper published earlier this year, DeepMind researchers determined that today’s large language models are in fact larger than they should be; for optimal model performance (given a finite compute budget), today’s models should have fewer parameters but train on larger datasets. Training data, in other words, trumps model size. Most of today’s leading language models were trained on data corpuses of about 300 billion tokens, including OpenAI’s GPT-3 (175 billion parameters in size), AI21 Labs’ Jurassic (178 billion parameters in size), and Microsoft/Nvidia’s Megatron-Turing (570 billion parameters in size). We predict that GPT-4 will be trained on a dataset at least an order of magnitude larger than this—perhaps as large as 10 trillion tokens. Meanwhile, it will be smaller (i.e., fewer parameters) than Megatron-Turing. It is possible that GPT-4 will be multimodal: that is, that it will be able to work with images, videos and other data modalities in addition to text. This would mean, for example, that it could take a text prompt as input and produce an image (like DALL-E does); or take a video as input and answer questions about it via text. A multimodal GPT-4 would be a bombshell. More likely, however, GPT-4 will be a text-only model (like the previous GPT models) whose performance on language tasks will redefine the state of the art. What will this look like, specifically? Two language areas in which GPT-4 may demonstrate astonishing leaps in performance are memory (the ability to retain and refer back to information from previous conversations) and summarization (the ability to distill a large body of text to its essential elements). If you enjoyed this market, please check out the other 9! https://manifold.markets/group/forbes-2023-ai-predictions This market is from Rob Toews' annual AI predictions at Forbes magazine. This market will resolve based on Rob's own self-assessed score for these predictions when he publishes his retrospective on them at the end of the year. Since Rob resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside source data. ----- Edit 2023-07-05: Last year Rob used "Right-ish" to grade some of his predictions. In cases of a similar "Right-ish" (or "Wrong-ish") answer this year, I will resolve to 75% PROB or 25% PROB, respectively. This will apply for similar language too ("mostly right", "partial credit", "in the right direction"). If he says something like "hard to say" or "some right, some wrong", or anything else that feels like a cop-out or 50% answer, I will just call that N/A. Thanks to Henri Thunberg from this comment in requesting clarification!
2023-01-16T12:59:36
2023-11-30T20:59:00
2023-12-11T17:00:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5wp8SxIUwCWUmXiSIs3K
5) Search will change more in 2023 than it has since Google went mainstream in the early 2000s.
Search is the primary means by which we navigate and access digital information. It lies at the heart of the modern internet experience. Today’s large language models can read and write with a level of sophistication that a few years ago would have seemed inconceivable. This will have profound implications for how we search. In the wake of ChatGPT, one reconceptualization of search that has gotten a lot of attention is the idea of conversational search. Why enter a query and get back a long list of links (the current Google experience) if you could instead have a dynamic conversation with an AI agent in order to find what you are looking for? Conversational search has a bright future. One major challenge needs to be resolved, though, before it is ready for primetime: accuracy. Conversational LLMs are not reliably accurate; they occasionally share factually untrue information with total confidence. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman himself recently cautioned: “It’s a mistake to be relying on ChatGPT for anything important right now.” Most users will not accept a search application that is accurate 95% or even 99% of the time. Addressing this issue in a scalable and robust way will be one of the primary challenges facing search innovators in 2023. You.com, Character.AI, Metaphor and Perplexity are among the wave of promising young startups looking to take on Google and reinvent consumer search with LLMs and conversational interfaces. But consumer internet search is not the only type of search that LLMs will transform. Enterprise search—the way that organizations search and retrieve private internal data—is likewise on the cusp of a new golden age. Thanks to large-scale vectorization, LLMs enable true semantic search for the first time: the ability to index and access information based on underlying concepts and context rather than simple keywords. This will make enterprise search vastly more powerful and productive. Startups like Hebbia and Glean are leading the charge to transform enterprise search using large language models. And the opportunities for next-generation search extend beyond text. Recent advances in AI open up whole new possibilities in multimodal search: that is, the ability to query and retrieve information across data modalities. Given that it accounts for ~80% of all data on the internet, no modality represents a bigger opportunity than video. Imagine being able to search effortlessly and precisely for a particular moment, individual, concept or action within a video. Twelve Labs is one startup building a multimodal AI platform to enable nuanced video search and understanding. Search has changed surprisingly little since Google’s ascendance during the dot-com era. Next year, thanks to large language models, this will begin to change dramatically. If you enjoyed this market, please check out the other 9! https://manifold.markets/group/forbes-2023-ai-predictions This market is from Rob Toews' annual AI predictions at Forbes magazine. This market will resolve based on Rob's own self-assessed score for these predictions when he publishes his retrospective on them at the end of the year. Since Rob resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside source data. ----- Edit 2023-07-05: Last year Rob used "Right-ish" to grade some of his predictions. In cases of a similar "Right-ish" (or "Wrong-ish") answer this year, I will resolve to 75% PROB or 25% PROB, respectively. This will apply for similar language too ("mostly right", "partial credit", "in the right direction"). If he says something like "hard to say" or "some right, some wrong", or anything else that feels like a cop-out or 50% answer, I will just call that N/A.
2023-01-16T12:59:08
2023-11-30T20:59:00
2023-12-12T05:26:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-iPA0LlWqIhGjqzmeeb2z
8) The number of research projects that build on or cite AlphaFold will surge.
DeepMind’s AlphaFold platform, first announced in late 2020, solved one of life’s great mysteries: the protein folding problem. AlphaFold is able to accurately predict the three-dimensional shape of a protein based solely on its one-dimensional amino acid sequence, a landmark achievement that had eluded human researchers for decades. (We have previously argued in this column that AlphaFold represents the single most important achievement in the history of artificial intelligence.) Because proteins underpin nearly every important activity that happens inside every living being on earth, more deeply understanding their structures and functions opens up profound new possibilities in biology and human health: from developing life-saving therapeutics to improving agriculture, from fighting disease to investigating the origins of life. In July 2021, DeepMind open-sourced AlphaFold and released a database of 350,000 three-dimensional protein structures. (As a reference point, the total number of protein structures known to mankind prior to AlphaFold was around 180,000.) Then, a few months ago, DeepMind publicly released the structures for another 200 million proteins—nearly all catalogued proteins known to science. Mere months after DeepMind’s latest release, more than 500,000 researchers from 190 countries have used the AlphaFold platform to access 2 million different protein structures. This is just the beginning. Breakthroughs of AlphaFold’s magnitude require years for their full impact to manifest. In 2023, expect the volume of research built on top of AlphaFold to surge. Researchers will take this vast new trove of foundational biological knowledge and apply it to produce world-changing applications across disciplines, from new vaccines to new types of plastics. If you enjoyed this market, please check out the other 9! https://manifold.markets/group/forbes-2023-ai-predictions This market is from Rob Toews' annual AI predictions at Forbes magazine. This market will resolve based on Rob's own self-assessed score for these predictions when he publishes his retrospective on them at the end of the year. Since Rob resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside source data. ----- Edit 2023-07-05: Last year Rob used "Right-ish" to grade some of his predictions. In cases of a similar "Right-ish" (or "Wrong-ish") answer this year, I will resolve to 75% PROB or 25% PROB, respectively. This will apply for similar language too ("mostly right", "partial credit", "in the right direction"). If he says something like "hard to say" or "some right, some wrong", or anything else that feels like a cop-out or 50% answer, I will just call that N/A. Thanks to Henri Thunberg from this comment in requesting clarification!
2023-01-16T12:58:31
2023-11-30T20:59:00
2023-12-12T05:27:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3aHeGrXpMWFSN8Xjql29
9) DeepMind, Google Brain, and/or OpenAI will undertake efforts to build a foundation model for robotics.
The term “foundation model,” introduced last year by a team of Stanford researchers, refers to a massive AI model trained on broad swaths of data that, rather than being built for a specific task, can perform effectively on a wide range of different activities. Foundation models have been a key driver of recent progress in AI. Today’s foundation models are breathtakingly powerful. But—whether they are text-generating models like GPT-3, or text-to-image models like Stable Diffusion, or models for computer actions like Adept—they operate exclusively in the digital realm. AI systems that act in the real world—e.g., autonomous vehicles, warehouse robots, drones, humanoid robots—have so far remained mostly untouched by the new foundation model paradigm. This will change in 2023. Expect early pioneering work on this concept of foundation models for robotics to come from the world’s leading AI research organizations: DeepMind, Google Brain or perhaps OpenAI (though the latter took a step back from robotics research last year). What would it mean to build a foundation model for robotics—in other words, a foundation model for the physical world? At a high level, such a model might be trained on troves of data from different sensor modalities (e.g., camera, radar, lidar) in order to develop a generalized understanding of physics and real-world objects: how different objects move, how they interact with one another, how heavy or fragile or soft or flexible they are, what happens when you touch or drop or throw them. This “real-world foundation model” could then be fine-tuned for particular hardware platforms and particular downstream activities. If you enjoyed this market, please check out the other 9! https://manifold.markets/group/forbes-2023-ai-predictions This market is from Rob Toews' annual AI predictions at Forbes magazine. This market will resolve based on Rob's own self-assessed score for these predictions when he publishes his retrospective on them at the end of the year. Since Rob resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside source data. ----- Edit 2023-07-05: Last year Rob used "Right-ish" to grade some of his predictions. In cases of a similar "Right-ish" (or "Wrong-ish") answer this year, I will resolve to 75% PROB or 25% PROB, respectively. This will apply for similar language too ("mostly right", "partial credit", "in the right direction"). If he says something like "hard to say" or "some right, some wrong", or anything else that feels like a cop-out or 50% answer, I will just call that N/A. Thanks to Henri Thunberg from this comment in requesting clarification!
2023-01-16T12:58:03
2023-11-30T20:59:00
2023-12-12T05:27:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Qv2QSogVSqW9uiC9imyV
Will Destiny Go Vegan Before 2025?
It has to be for atleast one week.
2023-01-16T11:32:45
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-08T01:56:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uAE6atfSH0F6xbJbU1eu
Will Michael Lewis testify at SBF's trial?
Lewis has been embedded with SBF for over a year, so presumably he has some interesting stories to share not only with his readers, but also with a jury.
2023-01-16T10:21:06
2023-10-31T22:24:28
2023-10-31T22:24:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Yr3t9bqb8JOhpX24sKTk
Will Vladimir Putin retire and appoint his successor in advance of the 2024 election?
Vladimir Putin is the current President of Russia. There is speculation that he may choose to retire and appoint his successor in advance of the 2024 presidential election in Russia. This would mean that instead of running for another term, Putin would select someone to take over the presidency before the election takes place. This decision would likely have significant political implications for Russia and could potentially shape the country's future direction. It is important to note that Putin's term in office is set to end in 2024, and if he does not retire or appoint a successor, he will have to run for the election again.Vladimir Putin is the current President of Russia. There is speculation that he may choose to retire and appoint his successor in advance of the 2024 presidential election in Russia. This would mean that instead of running for another term, Putin would select someone to take over the presidency before the election takes place. This decision would likely have significant political implications for Russia and could potentially shape the country's future direction. It is important to note that Putin's term in office is set to end in 2024, and if he does not retire or appoint a successor, he will have to run for the election again. This is actually how Putin became president. (mostly by ChatGPT)
2023-01-16T09:48:24
2024-03-18T10:11:01
2024-03-18T10:11:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-69xnvPJeA0iGMPi027b9
Will the House of Representatives vote to expel George Santos by the end of 2023?
The last time it happened was James Traficant, who had already been convicted of multiple crimes at the time of his removal. UPDATE: Santos must be removed. Otherwise this would have already resolved based on the last vote to expel that failed.
2023-01-16T07:58:55
2023-12-01T11:01:20
2023-12-01T11:01:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-suBpumwfBnZVy4Kc0qu5
Will there be a deadly military incident between China and Vietnam before 10th Feb 2024?
Resolves yes if there is a clash between military or border police resulting in a death (or multiple). Deniable assets like fishermen do not count, unless they are reported as military undercover by a reputable broadsheet. Death of tourists or sailors on shore leave do not count.
2023-01-16T07:47:07
2024-02-10T08:59:00
2024-02-10T10:41:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v5opXQ4rqAZtE4vPeg5k
Will the next DnD campaign that Destiny plays in start before August 2023?
Resolves YES if destiny ever plays in a campaign that starts before august 2023. Additionally Destiny needs to join the campaign before the end of 2023. Resolves NO if destiny dosen't play in a DnD campaign before 2024, or the campaign he plays in starts after July 31. 2023.
2023-01-16T04:28:41
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2024-01-03T18:10:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xgLCOjQUMdZkZB5pkxCS
will there be any failed booster landings by spacex in 2023?
spacex are planning to launch 100 falcon 9's in 2023 this will be resolved yes if spacex fails 1 or more booster landings in 2023 only falcon 9 block 5 boosters count
2023-01-16T04:11:54
2023-12-28T21:50:13
2023-12-28T21:50:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-a01aHewEJNDOl4fIKaAU
Will the Ukraine war end by 2025?
The war will be considered to have ended if a ceasefire beginning before 2025 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed by 2025. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.
2023-01-16T03:11:36
2025-01-01T13:59:00
2025-01-01T14:56:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7HoZa5XCIC5rUMZarsKF
Will Finland supply Ukraine with at least 8 leopard 2 tanks by the end of 2023
Resolves YES if the decision to send 8. or more Leopard 2 tanks to ukraine before 2024. Resolves NO if It sends no tanks or less than 8. Important to observe is the fact that Finlnad only has 200 Leopard 2 tanks. Finland sending 8 tanks is equivalent of them sending 4 % of finnish MBTs. https://puolustusvoimat.fi/documents/1948673/2014902/CBMFI23.pdf
2023-01-16T02:34:22
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2024-01-10T03:21:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-or92qjxBiQQ46aF4Yfge
Will Ron DeSantis file to run for president by June 30, 2023?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, Ronald Dion DeSantis or his authorized representative does at least one of the following: -Files a Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) -Amends an existing Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the FEC -Designates a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election -Otherwise files or communicates with the FEC with the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for the 2024 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note that any informal declarations by Ron DeSantis and/or his representatives regarding DeSantis's intentions to run will have no bearing on this market; only the above criteria will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve based on the official FEC website (https://www.fec.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice. real money market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-president-by-june-30-2023
2023-01-16T02:14:23
2023-05-24T13:46:02
2023-05-24T13:46:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-elLUNFk2Rs5zu165mdsp
Will forces from a NATO member country enter Belarus before Q4 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-16T00:39:57
2023-09-30T14:59:00
2023-09-30T23:59:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BeqSSoAva5ChoynbemXD
Will Joe Biden Die before the end of his presidency
If Joe Biden gets a second term in his presidency that is also included. Will resolve yes in january 2025 or january 2029 given Joe Biden is alive. Close date updated to 2029-01-20 11:59 pm
2023-01-15T23:14:57
2025-01-20T11:44:23
2025-01-20T11:44:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1v0Qsj7LRl7WE0Md8BYq
Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-15T19:42:11
2023-12-31T14:15:09
2023-12-31T14:15:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UaIAOBUmM3OpyFMdyU2T
Will Netanyahu be convicted of a crime by end of 2024?
Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel (1996-99, 2009-21, 2022-), has been under investigation for bribery/corruption/fraud since 2016. He was indicted in 2019, and his ongoing trial began in 2020. Some articles I found: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/world/middleeast/netanyahu-corruption-charges-israel.html, https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-721198, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu Resolves YES if Benjamin Netanyahu is officially convicted of any crime before the end of 2024, and NO otherwise (whether the trial continues to drag on, the trial gets cancelled, Netanyahu is found innocent, etc.). 2023 market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-of-a-cr)General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
2023-01-15T19:31:31
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T16:10:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HbA5q9YAnaZoV8UmFo2e
Will GPT-4 be Time Person of the Year in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-15T16:55:00
2023-12-06T13:27:55
2023-12-06T13:27:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iGNl0uQATkiV5xPFBgfv
Will Ethereum trade above $5k at any point in 2024?
Resolves according to Coingecko.
2023-01-15T15:22:07
2024-12-31T05:00:00
2024-12-31T10:33:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nIJNWRoDBnIn2vlTDpgu
Will Ethereum go above $4k for at least 24 hours before 2024?
Resolves according to Coingecko. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/will-ethereum-go-above-3k-for-at-le)Jan 17, 11:24am: Will Ethereum go above $4k for at least 24 hours before 2023? → Will Ethereum go above $4k for at least 24 hours before 2024? (Sorry everyone, I can't believe I messed up the year!)
2023-01-15T15:18:44
2023-12-31T05:00:00
2023-12-31T05:06:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qmyW6X0JqxathSSiTq5i
Tesla's market cap is higher than Bitcoin's on January 1st, 2025
Close date updated to 2025-01-01 3:59 pm Close date updated to 2024-12-31 12:59 am Close date updated to 2024-12-31 12:59 pm
2023-01-15T01:24:41
2024-12-31T12:59:00
2025-01-01T03:30:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LctzeOT9AXPayA1pAOtD
Will there be a right-wing terrorist attack in the Netherlands in 2023?
The growth of the extreme right in the Netherlands has been causing concerns of academics and government officials. https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/10/terrorism-tzar-warns-about-far-right-violence-as-mps-and-journalists-face-abuse/ https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/11/far-right-extremism-is-quietly-increasing-researchers-warn/ On New Years Eve, white power groups interfered with the national New Year's celebration and stated more actions will follow: https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/03/telegram-group-claims-responsibility-neo-nazi-racist-erasmus-bridge-stunt This market will resolve YES if in 2023 (any time zone), right-wing extremists (defined as political extremists motivated by a conservative and/or nationalist belief system, but excluding jihadist ideologies) will engage in a terrorist attack within the Netherlands. In contrast with more commonplace acts of violence and intimidations, terrorist attacks are defined here as actions with a clear intent to physically harm, maim or kill citizens. The market will resolve NO if this is not the case.
2023-01-15T01:01:32
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T00:34:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5DWpygnYqdMk2V6btmjM
Will there be an Effective Altruist member of the US Congress by January 2025?
Based on whether they self-identify as an Effective Altruist.
2023-01-14T13:30:36
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T16:06:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4ksSj4uraDNX0BjMvLE9
Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)
Some of Joe Biden's lawyers discovered in his Delaware home some classified documents he kept from Obama's presidency. Biden's team returned the documents and claims it was an accident. However, Kevin McCarthy called for the launch of an investigation. Here's the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_classified_documents_incident Resolves YES if this whole situation is largely forgotten by the media and the popular zeitgeist 3 months from today (on April 14th) and NO otherwise. N/A if it's especially ambiguous. This is a subjective market, but I'll do my best to resolve fairly. Conservative media outlets will be weighted modestly: if liberal/mainstream media stops covering it but it's a very frequent talking point on Fox News, for example, this will probably resolve NO, but YES if it's only an occasional Fox talking point. Other factors I may consider include: level of awareness among people I know (including those who don't follow politics), level of conversation on Twitter, and number of Manifold markets made on the subject. I will not bet on this market unless I feel it is very mispriced. General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion. Feb 3, 7:00am: Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? → Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)
2023-01-14T13:28:40
2023-04-13T23:59:00
2023-04-14T21:35:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-oVFOV6ljqisaWzQLZ6Kn
Will Christian Lindner (german secretary of finance) be out of office before the next federal election?
Will resolve NO, if Christian Lindner is still in office when the planned 2025 federal election is over. Will resolve YES, if Christian Lindner is not in office anymore before the planned 2025 federal election.
2023-01-14T12:16:44
2024-11-07T10:20:06
2024-11-07T10:20:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2U7LoZ0TKfBQplmqg7x1
Will destiny and sneako debate about vaccines/Covid again by the end of April?
Destiny and sneako have had multiple conversations/debates about vaccines and Covid in the last year. Mostly recently going on sneako stream and watching the documentary "died suddenly". Close date updated to 2023-04-30 11:59 pm
2023-01-14T09:46:28
2023-04-30T20:59:00
2023-05-02T02:36:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-j2CEb6gJBwDc3HQt7nc2
Will any product built using a large language model receive FDA clearance by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-14T08:52:35
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T20:59:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0BIREXmOLJ2WZNVAatm3
Will the average price of a dozen eggs drop below $3.50 in February 2023?
Resolves YES if FRED reports a US city average price <= $3.50 per dozen eggs for February 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111 The average price for November 2022 was $3.59. The average price for December 2022 was $4.25. I will not bet in this market. [image]
2023-01-13T22:10:08
2023-03-14T09:01:28
2023-03-14T09:01:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-13T19:08:48
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:35:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RAVc5vbdNDnelUVklSda
Will Alphabet make a 10 figure or more investment in any startup during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-13T14:39:59
2023-10-27T14:29:16
2023-10-27T14:29:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kqZgS7mfonUKG2gKqe2Z
Will Google make a 10 figure investment in Anthropic by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-13T14:38:50
2023-10-27T14:23:42
2023-10-27T14:23:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EPQ4hi7nc0Cvf6CXBqs1
Will Hakeem Jefferies visit Taiwan during the 118th Congress?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-13T14:25:27
2025-01-03T11:52:11
2025-01-03T11:52:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-B3ycDj8Co62XEOFvcHZz
1. Airfare will fall at least 5% compared to 2022.
(Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre ----- Average fares are currently 36% higher than they were 12 months ago. (Adjusting for inflation, airfare is up 24%.) In 2023, I expect that to reverse and year-over-year fares to fall. (70% confidence) ----- This is question #1 from Scott Keyes' annual travel predictions at Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going). Since Scott resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.
2023-01-13T11:49:35
2023-12-23T20:59:00
2023-12-28T21:15:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PN85Oo92ON0b4Hvi7TAi
12. One of the big 6 US airlines will buy out a smaller carrier.
(Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre ----- Sticking my neck out here, but I think there’s a decent chance one of the six largest US airlines (American, Delta, United, Alaska, JetBlue, or Southwest) will try to purchase a smaller carrier. (Not counting the proposed JetBlue-Spirit merger, of course.) Alaska buying Hawaiian? Frontier and Allegiant combining? As a cheap flight lover I hope we don’t see any more mergers, but hey it’s fun to speculate! (60% confidence) ----- This is question #12 from Scott Keyes' annual travel predictions at Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going). Since Scott resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.
2023-01-13T11:47:58
2023-12-23T20:59:00
2023-12-28T21:23:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-KYIsXtx7BBYwVkmMgGi8
Will Elon Musk die in 2023?
Resolves to YES if Elon Musk dies anytime in 2023.
2023-01-13T11:47:08
2024-01-01T23:59:00
2024-01-02T17:20:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cZU6VPKksHvpae4J2hRz
Will Nick Bostrom be removed or step down from his position as director of the Future of Humanity Institute? (within the end of 2023)
(this post is referencing this https://nickbostrom.com/oldemail.pdf) (and this https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/blacks-more-stupid-than-whites-wrote-oxford-don-8gsj8l0wf)
2023-01-13T10:54:40
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T00:54:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fGWxeNMZnX7hFxc6GVRA
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?
I have worded the question carefully, but the general thing I am asking is if there will be a significant third party run in 2024 (something akin to a Eugene V. Debs). Resolves as "YES" if a single candidate that is neither a reigistered Republican or Democrat wins 5% of the national popular vote or some greater amount. National popular vote is defined as all votes cast by citizens for electors in the 2024 election. Furthermore, even so these votes are technically for "electors" and not for the candidate themselves, a vote is defined as being "for" a candidate if that vote is cast for a slate of Electoral College electors that have pledge to vote for that candidate. Candidates that run with "No Party" affiliation do count, as do those with "Independent" affiliation, "Libertarian," "Green," etc. However, for the market to resolve as "YES" a single candidate that is not backed by either the Repuiblican or Democratic parties needs to win at least 5% (i.e. the Libertarian candidate winning 3% and the Greens winning 2% does not resolve in a "YES").
2023-01-13T10:14:32
2024-12-29T13:36:07
2024-12-29T13:36:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OAiVVRA6HUK22zaLyFFr
Was US life expectancy higher for the Hispanic population compared to the White population in 2022?
Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the Hispanic population in 2022 is strictly larger than that for the non-Hispanic White population as reported by the National Vital Statistics System. For reference the provisional life expectancy for 2021 were 77.7 and 76.4 years for the Hispanic population and non-Hispanic White population, respectively (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf).
2023-01-13T08:12:08
2023-11-29T06:30:56
2023-11-29T06:30:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7kQAiVI18xTTcI2dpPMU
Did US life expectancy increase for the Native American population in 2022?
Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System. The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 65.2 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf). I will update the description when the final estimate for 2021 is available. However, this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released by August 2023). For reference life expectancy for this population has decreased each year since 2019.
2023-01-13T08:12:05
2023-11-29T06:30:12
2023-11-29T06:30:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VyBAXUAPh2tk3m7BcRPL
Did US life expectancy increase for the Black population in 2022?
Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the non-Hispanic Black population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System. The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 70.8 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf). I will update the description when the final estimate for 2021 is available. However, this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released in August 2023). For reference life expectancy for this population has decreased each year since 2019.
2023-01-13T08:11:59
2023-11-29T06:31:39
2023-11-29T06:31:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yNKcMoEi2r1uTdvvCc4J
Did US life expectancy increase for the White population in 2022?
Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the non-Hispanic White population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System. The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 76.4 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf). I will update the description when the final estimate for 2021 is available. However, this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released in August 2023). For reference life expectancy for this population has decreased each year since 2019.
2023-01-13T08:11:57
2023-11-29T06:29:02
2023-11-29T06:29:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4juXHfBuI15tCLEzE3Ok
Did US life expectancy increase for the Hispanic population in 2022?
Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the Hispanic population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System. The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 77.7 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf). I will update the description when the final estimate for 2021 is available. However, this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released in August 2023). For reference life expectancy for this population has decreased each year since 2019.
2023-01-13T08:11:50
2023-11-29T06:29:29
2023-11-29T06:29:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-feYJVqMw6u5Ev4eliMVN
Did US life expectancy increase in 2022?
Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for all races and origins in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 (76.4) as reported by the National Vital Statistics System. Notice that this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released in August 2023), and there might be a discrepancy with that provisional estimate and the final estimate (likely released in December 2023). For reference life expectancy has decreased each year since 2019.
2023-01-13T08:11:44
2023-11-29T06:33:23
2023-11-29T06:33:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-v0ZSzbjKfWvh5VsxjC6q
Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2023?
Resolves YES if #1 he is convicted of a crime, and #2 is sent to prison by Dec 1st 11:59pm, 2023. He must be physically at the prison to resolve YES.
2023-01-13T06:09:26
2023-11-03T11:47:22
2023-11-03T11:47:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GE0X2hWCvub4CnaIuj8U
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by July 1?
including tests
2023-01-13T05:33:49
2023-06-30T21:59:00
2023-07-09T23:16:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FjrcOK14SIlyvLgHoyUp
Will SBF be in prison by June 2023?
Resolves YES if #1 he is convicted of a crime, and #2 is sent to prison by May 31st 11:59pm, 2023. He must be physically at the prison to resolve YES.
2023-01-13T03:59:16
2023-05-30T21:59:00
2023-05-31T18:27:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r2QIsKcOAFmtz86xTc8N
If the SBF case goes to jury trial, will he be found Not Guilty on 1 or more charges?
I know, crazy, but what if he's not guilty? https://sambf.substack.com Deadline will be extended if necessary.
2023-01-12T17:43:54
2023-11-02T18:17:27
2023-11-02T18:17:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yc9iPByQmrx1hjsMBofY
Will Destiny do an IRL stream with Aella before the end of 2023?
This market will resolve yes if Aella and Destiny appear together, in person, on a livestream before December 31st, 2023.
2023-01-12T15:12:54
2023-09-24T10:16:41
2023-09-24T10:16:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-o5zwMpcwefpStBSUcQhT
Will Gerasimov still lead Russia's invasion of Ukraine on June 30?
On January 14, Russian Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, was named as "commander of the combined forces group for the special military operation in Ukraine", that is, Russia's chief battlefield commander in the Ukraine war. The previous commander, Gen. Surovikin, was demoted after just three months. The market resolves "No" if Gerasimov ceases to be the chief battlefield commander at any point before July 1, either officially or according to the media consensus. UPD: Changed the close date to July 14 in order to allow reports of possible changes to come out. I will resolve earlier if things become clear in either direction. The criteria are still the same - Gerasimov would have hade to be in charge on June 30, 2023.
2023-01-12T09:48:33
2023-07-14T14:59:00
2023-07-16T10:23:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Xuy7eDHNUVjEtNqdDyCg
Will Nick Bostrom step down as Director of FHI by the end of 2023?
Nick Bostrom recently apoligized for a racist email he sent in 1995. Will this lead to him stepping down as director of FHI? See this tweet for context.
2023-01-11T22:36:11
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:52:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5CbqG6kmf9WsJhGXvYHb
Will Anthropic remain independent by EOY 2024?
Resolves to No if Anthropic is bought or absorbed by some other company working on AI (e.g., Alphabet, Microsoft, OpenAI, ...) by end of 2024, or if some entity like this gets a majority share.
2023-01-11T18:42:41
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T03:09:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SmzyKeC8zlLszuH39Tw5
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of 2023?
Meaning at point of market close - not "at any point before market close". Same resolution criteria as this other market, just for end of 2023: (https://manifold.markets/embed/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo)
2023-01-11T18:35:11
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-11T13:09:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pHmjDXYeZTLjyafRJuhY
Will Minecraft's End Poem be significantly altered or removed from Minecraft, or will any related legal action be taken against Julian Gough before Q3 2023?
[tweet] Julian Gough, the poet behind Minecraft's final sequence the End Poem, never legally transfered the rights for the poem to Mojang or subsequently to Microsoft. Julian Gough recently released a 10,000~ word blog post detailing the events that led up to this outcome, and relinquished all of his personal rights over the poem under a CC0 license, allowing anyone to use the poem as they wish in their own creative or commercial works. You can read the article here. I recommend it! If you can't read the article, here's the especially relevant section adressing Microsoft's legal team. "Significantly altered or removed" — A significant alteration of the poem would include any change that causes it to be more difficult to read or find in the game in a way that is clearly local to the poem (not, for example, simply due to it becoming harder to defeat the Ender Dragon), or any deliberate wording change which changes the meaning of the poem. Making the poem easier to access (for whatever reason) would not qualify as a significant alteration under this definition.
2023-01-11T17:49:21
2023-09-30T16:59:00
2023-10-01T02:37:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4sAe8oL2Rz44ZG2NxhYT
Will George Santos resign from Congress by the end of 2023?
Jan 11, 7:03pm: Will George Santos resign by the end of 2023? → Will George Santos resign from Congress by the end of 2023?
2023-01-11T16:02:46
2023-12-01T14:40:24
2023-12-01T14:40:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nfka3NTi4z2F6Tbncrke
Will George Santos resign from congress by the end of the term?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-11T16:02:02
2023-12-01T15:13:13
2023-12-01T15:13:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IlbRywkDmf1LBDwNjpeg
Will more than 100 members of Congress visit Taiwan during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-11T14:52:21
2023-12-31T20:22:04
2023-12-31T20:22:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4EMOwsi1NYh0q6Jm6E4Z
Will more than 50 members of congress visit Taiwan in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-11T14:51:23
2023-12-31T20:57:41
2023-12-31T20:57:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xSU0RTag5iJX5KsAgUgv
Will there be Challenger 2 tanks in service in Ukraine by the end ofJune 2023?
Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-there-be-m1-abrams-tanks-in-se?referrer=NickelChen)(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-there-be-leopard-1-or-2-tanks)
2023-01-11T08:04:18
2023-06-30T14:59:00
2023-07-04T09:46:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UFfDwEyfbA8XEEH5gf7g
Will Destiny be seen wearing a suit in the next 2 years?
This poll resolves YES if Destiny is seen in either video or photo form wearing a suit. If no such outfit is worn in the next 2 years this poll resolves NO. In order for the suit to count Destiny needs to be photographed wearing it, this means that for example if Destiny goes to a wedding, even though it can be reasonably assumed that he would wear a suit, if no photo is ever publicly surfaced, this poll will not resolve.
2023-01-11T07:59:48
2023-11-26T13:30:46
2023-11-26T13:30:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BQkjtaVibr0UU4ugfjch
Will Elon Musk regain his title as "world's richest man" by the end of the decade?
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/elon-musk-guinness-world-record-biggest-net-worth-drop.htm This market will resolve YES is Elon is considered by Forbes to again be the world's richest man at any point prior to 1/1/2030. As of Jan 2023 he sits at 2nd place below Bernard Arnault and above Gautam Adani. https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#663743183d78
2023-01-11T06:55:54
2023-06-07T08:00:14
2023-06-07T08:00:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SUAUvbGYOSfWKrh75b2t
Will Ke Huy Quan (from Everything Everywhere All at Once) win the 2023 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor?
The Oscars will be presented on Sunday March 12, 2023. Will resolve yes if Ke-Huy Quan (from Everything Everywhere All at Once) wins the best supporting actor award. Close date updated to 2023-03-02 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-03-12 11:59 pm Jan 16, 10:42am: Will Ke Huy Quan (from Everything Everywhere All at Once) win the 2022 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor? → Will Ke Huy Quan (from Everything Everywhere All at Once) win the 2023 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor?
2023-01-10T20:58:52
2023-03-12T17:45:20
2023-03-12T17:45:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9Bh8qwKkcCBAi9h9KaPU
Will Lex Fridman interview Trump?
[markets]
2023-01-10T20:15:42
2024-09-03T14:58:38
2024-09-03T14:58:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fZJa8vi9hA4bzjyNydl9
Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on August 1, 2023?
To resolve with a load of bbc.com/news/health. In order to maintain trust in market resolution, I will not trade in this market.
2023-01-10T19:35:40
2023-08-01T16:59:00
2023-08-02T07:53:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mbUACWdXjbQ4n9A2O1hN
Will Henry Kissinger live to turn 100 years old?
Will Henry Kissinger still be alive on May 27th 2023, on his 100th birthday? Close date updated to 2023-05-25 12:00 am
2023-01-10T17:16:12
2023-05-26T15:00:00
2023-05-26T20:30:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lECvkgCOADFmgZKjDMcQ
Will Lex Fridman interview AI by 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-10T16:34:43
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T12:41:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gIEbNcduncUacY9dN8hz
Is Microsoft to invest $7.5bn-$15bn in OpenAI?
Resolves YES if Microsoft has bought or will buy (in negotiations continuous with what is currently being rumoured, if they reflect reality) a stake in OpenAI for between $7.5bn and $15bn. Jan 11, 12:05am: Has Microsoft invested $10bn in OpenAI? → Has Microsoft invested or is Microsoft to invest $7.5bn-$15bn in OpenAI? Jan 11, 12:07am: Has Microsoft invested or is Microsoft to invest $7.5bn-$15bn in OpenAI? → Is Microsoft to invest $7.5bn-$15bn in OpenAI? Close date updated to 2023-03-10 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-06-10 11:59 pm
2023-01-10T16:01:43
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T14:33:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SMlZr2DiTTVBP55DcWix
Will “Attack on Titan” have an anime original ending?
Resolves “YES” if the remaining AoT anime story significantly differs from the manga – as soon as that can be determined. Resolves “NO” otherwise – when the complete story is released. May resolve “N/A” if the production gets canceled. Minor stylistic polish, editorial rearrangements, and truncations don’t count. What counts are substantive changes to the key story beats. (They don’t have to conform to any of the alternate ending ideas floating around.) Judgment is quite subjective and I’ll try to be cautious (will wait until reasonably confident). If at all possible, I’ll rely on professional reviewers’ consensus. Comments show up in the general Manifold live feed, so in case people care about that, be considerate with spoilers.
2023-01-10T14:26:13
2024-01-01T18:56:34
2024-01-01T18:56:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Q1ueCUqqmeeGKI6MrF9U
Will the U. S. President pardon Donald Trump by February 2025?
Resolves YES if Donald Trump is pardoned (to any extent) by the president of the United States before February 1, 2025.
2023-01-10T13:10:38
2025-01-31T21:01:00
2025-02-01T00:04:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-o0xmg0VOY6uxltQc3wMO
Will the U. S. President pardon Julian Assange by February 2025?
Resolves YES if Julian Assange is pardoned (to any extent) by the president of the United States before February 1, 2025.
2023-01-10T13:10:22
2025-01-31T21:01:00
2025-01-31T23:58:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-t9R3YCXKuqSz3WBM4E1M
Will the U. S. President pardon Edward Snowden by February 2025?
Resolves YES if Edward Snowden is pardoned (to any extent) by the president of the United States before February 1, 2025.
2023-01-10T13:09:59
2025-01-31T21:01:00
2025-01-31T23:58:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vWWXre5V5l5ELtcRvHkV
Will the existing China government collapse by 2025?
Peter Zeihan is convinced that the China will have increasing political turmoil: "This is a country that will not last a whole lot longer" (Jan 10 2023, https://youtu.be/fHs8wqj3WQY). This market resolves YES if there is general geopolitical consensus in the West that the existing single-party Chinese state has collapsed by start of 2025. Since geopolitics is messy, examples of outcomes that would convince me to resolve YES: A new government separate from the Chinese Communist Party is running the country A coup that replaces the existing faction government (more than a new President replacing Xi from within the Chinese Communist Party) A widespread civil war that results in separately governed geographic areas China's quarterly international trade reduced by over 50% China's quarterly GDP reduced by over 50%
2023-01-10T08:54:34
2024-12-31T22:59:00
2025-01-01T06:05:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5w1F14z5npjQ2Sy2Da9c
Will YouTube Music be discontinued before 2024?
Resolves YES if there is announcement by Google before January 1st 2024 that YouTube Music will be shut down (even if the shutdown actually happens after 2023). If users are made to switch to another service (like what happened with Google Music) it will still resolve YES if the other service is different. Also resolves YES if YouTube Music merges with the YouTube app and Music subscribers are forced to switch to YouTube Premium. It won't resolve YES if YouTube Music changes name but is the same product. In that case I will change the question and description to the new name.
2023-01-10T08:10:30
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-02T06:23:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DKUIZcnSwcJn3oh0RXs8
Will YouTube Music be discontinued before 2025?
Resolves YES if there is announcement by Google before January 1st 2025 that YouTube Music will be shut down (even if the shutdown actually happens after 2024). If users are made to switch to another service (like what happened with Google Music) it will still resolve YES if the other service is different. Also resolves YES if YouTube Music merges with the YouTube app and Music subscribers are forced to switch to YouTube Premium. It won't resolve YES if YouTube Music changes name but is the same product. In that case I will change the question and description to the new name.
2023-01-10T07:46:33
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T11:47:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LRnuqcB6knLJumIassBt
Will Imran Khan be prime minister of Pakistan in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-10T07:03:16
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T16:06:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pCqrqhTKgDwPJ4t1S07K
Economy 2023: US inflation above 4.0%?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:57:24
2024-01-13T14:59:00
2024-02-03T03:49:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-m8kp4QPwMEbDOkEC1oGp
International affairs 2023: Biden visits Vietnam?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:48:27
2023-09-27T15:51:18
2023-09-27T15:51:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-agCipvhIjNz4AKiSIono
International affairs 2023: Turkey and Hungary approve the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:47:56
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T04:54:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mJwmxGtCuSUzcYApgSEv
International affairs 2023: No peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:47:42
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-02T08:07:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-58WH8yewgjogpJTfLWgG
Life in America 2023: The increase in car crash deaths continues?
(as of the most-updated NHTSA data) This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on life in America, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image] Jan 10, 2:51pm: Life in America 2023: Avatar: The increase in car crash deaths continues? → Life in America 2023: The increase in car crash deaths continues?
2023-01-10T05:45:19
2024-04-30T14:33:09
2024-04-30T14:33:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NHD4sk5CEplbWPEGuJi5
Life in America 2023: Fewer murders in big cities than in 2022?
(as indicated by Jeff Asher’s data) This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on life in America, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:43:40
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-16T03:17:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vSggBCnqpLfjzpKHQsg4
American politics 2023: Mike Pence runs for president?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:41:03
2023-06-12T21:15:27
2023-06-12T21:15:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZRRy0am58V4cRo9XGNXl
American politics 2023: Republicans retain their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates ?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:40:50
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T10:14:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9nrEq1QwKxK6YfeHLOhq
American politics 2023: Donald Trump indicted on federal charges?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:39:36
2023-06-09T23:47:03
2023-06-09T23:47:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UTsHhOK1aZXeuouq3Z9B
American politics 2023: Hunter Biden indicted on federal charges?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:39:23
2023-09-14T13:38:22
2023-09-14T13:38:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fghnrqtqvC2uefyMTz77
American politics 2023: Dianne Feinstein is still in office at year’s end?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:38:59
2023-10-06T20:52:51
2023-10-06T20:52:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FBUu9M4gFavEScCUgmHI
American politics 2023: Ron DeSantis leads year-end polling averages for the GOP nomination?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:38:48
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-02T07:43:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VWt4wQ4eov1b0dK4gtYV
American politics 2023: Kevin McCarthy ends the year as Speaker of the House?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:37:55
2023-12-31T01:02:55
2023-12-31T01:02:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-89xQ90L1zmO48q7QVBNx
American politics 2023: At least two bills pass that violate the “Hastert Rule”/majority-of-the-majority principle?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:37:15
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-02T08:52:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-G0krb608arXZlJq3Pu3E
American politics 2023: Joe Biden is not impeached?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:36:26
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T04:49:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RbgyWbTUhkm5uCgWxXHS
American politics 2023: Joe Biden announces re-election bid?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:36:02
2023-04-29T17:31:18
2023-04-29T17:31:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-J2JYhP0HKO8dOoCcEwW0
American politics 2023: The statutory debt ceiling is raised?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image][image]
2023-01-10T05:34:11
2023-06-11T16:27:00
2023-06-11T16:27:00
yes
MANIFOLD