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mani-2Z5ZAsowMVbfcZFXZFgJ
Economy 2023: No recession in 2023?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:29:09
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T04:52:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6rNwDSJs8cjtvbvTnofu
Economy 2023: Fed raises rates by more than 0.75 points?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:28:59
2023-08-15T01:09:31
2023-08-15T01:09:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3GYv3AtBypdxpsqav6mN
Economy 2023: Stock market down on the year?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:28:34
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T04:56:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0d7NL9Rsspeu7HUaXMLL
Economy 2023: US Unemployment rate below 4.0%?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:28:13
2024-01-05T05:53:29
2024-01-05T05:53:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rNCtMzILPoDvxRpEcPv7
Economy 2023: US inflation below 5.0%?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on US economy events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:26:22
2024-01-11T14:59:00
2024-01-21T15:08:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-GBU09v82WIpjpKfDPSzN
Economy 2023: US inflation below 6.0%?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on US economy events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]
2023-01-10T05:25:59
2024-01-16T16:39:36
2024-01-16T16:39:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6lhf7NU7wtIkJJ30xohK
Sport 2023: Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on sport events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image] This market is framed exactly as asked by Matt.
2023-01-10T05:25:10
2023-06-11T03:30:23
2023-06-11T03:30:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1mICfcRXtaW3PPwl4SQV
Sport 2023: Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on sport events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image] This market is framed exactly as asked by Matt.
2023-01-10T05:24:54
2023-05-04T13:55:46
2023-05-04T13:55:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pbGWQwKULxS4dAzAOdFg
Sport 2023: Celtics win NBA finals?
This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on sport events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image] This market is framed exactly as asked by Matt.
2023-01-10T05:17:01
2023-06-12T21:11:20
2023-06-12T21:11:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OslQQGg5RcGE17ZgiSg3
2023 Matt Yglesias' Predictions: Pedro Sánchez out as Prime Minister of Spain?
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on foreign elections, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image] This market is framed exactly as asked by Matt.
2023-01-10T05:06:15
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T05:01:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n8bUwahUZQiQoiyTUOBe
Will Matt Yglesias create a market on Manifold before the end of 2023?
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
2023-01-10T05:00:18
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T08:47:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WjNQFKnc65h1qfV7VtTD
Will Starship put a payload into orbit in 2023?
Resolves YES if a SpaceX is paid to launch something into orbit, and it successfully does this with Starship.
2023-01-10T03:58:19
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T17:24:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w3XNpvb99b2GOJGLABuR
Will the New York Times write a non-negative article specifically about Georgism in 2023?
Companion market for this one: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-new-york-times-write-a-non The other one resolves if there's an article that just mentions a key term in a neutral or positive light. For THIS market, it will only resolve "Yes", if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, at least one article has appeared on the New York Times where Georgism, Land Value Tax, or Henry George, is the actual central subject of the article in question. For instance, if they just run an article about say, YIMBYism, and they happen to briefly mention Georgism in passing, that's not enough. If Georgism, LVT, or Henry George is in the headline itself, that obviously resolves "Yes." It will be a judgment call if it's, say, an article about the housing crisis and Georgism/LVT/etc is a major lens that the article uses for its analysis. The key determinant will be how much of the article the concept of Georgism or the personage of Henry George is actually central to -- it has to be at least 50%.
2023-01-09T18:16:08
2023-11-12T07:23:43
2023-11-12T07:23:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UDR3i7cK3L1bzpTk064E
Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?
I will ask GPT-4 this question when I get the chance, either personally or by getting a friend to try it for me. Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The host is ignorant about what is behind each door. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host walks across the stage and falls on accident, revealing a goat behind door No. 3. He then picks himself up, and says "Whoops. Sorry about that. But now that we know that a goat is behind door No. 3, do you want to change your selection and pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? This question resolves to YES if GPT-4 says that there is no advantage to switching your choice, and resolves to NO otherwise. I will only consider the actual first answer that I get from GPT-4, without trying different prompts. I will not use screenshots that people send me to resolve the question.
2023-01-09T16:27:37
2023-03-14T21:10:44
2023-03-14T21:10:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-b4GjZpGI3BP3pyt0e50w
Will William MacAskill create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
William MacAskill, a founder of the Effective Altruism movement. This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time. To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
2023-01-09T14:30:22
2024-01-31T10:40:35
2024-01-31T10:40:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JCFyT7uITQ1FbGcmYKzv
Will Vladimir Putin visit India in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-09T14:12:21
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T20:59:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9oG5nBxETIxBpITOylFX
Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?
See the question on metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13471/israeli-knesset-election-in-2023/
2023-01-09T12:58:39
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2023-12-31T22:08:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mmCsS70UNcJpyh3I1ALF
Top Gun: Maverick will not win Best Picture
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 75% probability. After Dylan Matthews biffed it last year when he predicted that the 2022 Academy Award for Best Picture would go to Belfast, a movie that I’m still not 100 percent sure was real, I’m hesitant to wade into Carpetbagger territory. This is compounded by the fact that of the 10 films Variety projects have the best chance at taking home the gold statuette, I’ve seen precisely two: the honestly overrated Everything Everywhere All at Once and the 131 minutes of “America! Fuck yeah!” that is Top Gun: Maverick. You have that right: I am the reason that critically acclaimed films are bombing at the box office. But even though I’m no cineaste, I’ve watched enough Oscar telecasts to have a pretty good idea of what the Academy is looking for. And it is not, apparently, movies that audiences go to see. While nearly every Best Picture winner between 1980 and 2003 was among the 20 top-grossing movies of the year, only three winners since have cracked that list. Top Gun: Maverick isn’t just the highest-grossing film of the year, it has nearly doubled the performance of its closest competitor, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Add that to its summer release — recently, the Academy has mostly preferred films released near the end of the year — and the odds are bad for the fighter plane flick. If I had to choose a winner, it would be Tár, because why wouldn’t an industry facing an existential audience crisis choose a critically acclaimed film that no one has seen? But I do expect Top Gun: Maverick to take home the award for Best Visual Effects, both for the amazing, real-life dogfighting sequences and for whatever it is that keeps 60-year-old Tom Cruise looking ageless. (Vox) Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:46:39
2023-12-30T12:41:10
2023-12-30T12:41:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sITOmcDMauv5qHQ5gpkz
At least three lab-grown meat companies will begin selling their products in the US [in 2023]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 50% probability. In November, the nascent lab-grown or “cultivated” meat field reached a major milestone: The US Food and Drug Administration gave Upside Foods, an early player in the sector, the green light to sell its cultivated chicken. But you won’t find it for sale just yet — the startup still needs USDA approval, which I predict it’ll get by the end of 2023. Not only that: I predict similar approval for two other startups in the coming year. If these moves happen, cell-cultured meat won’t be available for mass consumption immediately. Upside has plans to first partner with one Michelin-starred restaurant in San Francisco, and cultivated seafood startups Wildtype and BlueNalu will first work with high-end sushi restaurants. The first movers will have to be high-end — cultivated meat is still costly to produce, especially compared to $1.50-per-pound factory-farmed chicken. Availability at just a few elite restaurants is far from the industry’s real ambition: stealing a sizable share of the conventional meat market. But it’s significant that the startups in a sector that began less than a decade ago are now slowly migrating from the R&D lab to the manufacturing plant. It’ll be the first real test for the $2 billion gamble on lab-made meat. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:40:05
2023-12-30T12:40:09
2023-12-30T12:40:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EmHQ60f5LTZkUHPYxnDc
SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit [in 2023]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 70% probability. Starship, the new reusable spacecraft being developed by SpaceX, has been in the works for roughly a decade now. While the company has signaled that the next step is an uncrewed test flight reaching Earth orbit, that project has recently seen some delays. On November 1, industry news sites were reporting that the craft’s first orbital launch would come in December, but by December it was clear the launch wouldn’t come until 2023 at the earliest. But smart observers are still optimistic. “Based on a couple of conversations, I think SpaceX has a reasonable chance of making Starship’s orbital launch during the first quarter of 2023,” Ars Technica’s Eric Berger wrote on December 9. More to the point, delays, which are pretty common with SpaceX and spaceflight generally, sometimes are a sign of caution, which means the actual launch attempt has better odds. Starship is a totally new system, but SpaceX has an enviable track record with its other rockets: a 99 percent success rate on nearly 200 launches. Most of the drama with Falcon launches these days has to do with whether SpaceX also successfully lands the reusable first-stage booster without damage. The odds of a failure are higher in an early-stage program like Starship — and crewed launches like the shuttle operate under even more stringent safety standards — but SpaceX’s track record gives me hope. I put the odds that SpaceX will attempt a launch in 2023 at around 90 percent. If it attempts a launch, I put odds of success at some point in 2023 (if not necessarily in the first attempt) around 80 percent. That’s lower than its 99 percent success rate for the Falcon rockets, but fair given the newness and relative complexity of the system. 90 percent times 80 percent gets us around 70 percent odds that a launch succeeds in 2023. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:37:54
2023-12-30T12:39:47
2023-12-30T12:39:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SIkGi2PzJpBNF932yaJt
OpenAI will release GPT-4 [in 2023]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% probability. In its brief history, the research group OpenAI has released four large language models capable of producing intelligible text under the name “GPT,” or Generative Pre-trained Transformer. The first iteration came out in summer 2018. Then in early 2019, they unveiled GPT-2; in summer 2020 came GPT-3, and as part of the very high-profile ChatGPT product they revealed in late November 2022, they announced they had created GPT-3.5. The question then naturally arises: When is GPT-4 coming? Impressionistically, I find GPT-3.5 outputs much more convincing than GPT-3 ones, but OpenAI did not judge the advance significant enough for the name GPT-4. The release schedule also seems to be slowing down somewhat. But the rumor mill points in the opposite direction, with the New York Times’s Kevin Roose reporting murmurs that GPT-4 will come out in 2023, and TechCrunch’s Kyle Wiggers more evasively suggesting “perhaps as soon as 2023.” I’m inclined to give the rumor mill some weight, which is why I think GPT-4 in 2023 is more likely than not, but I’m not confident at all. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:36:41
2023-03-23T09:32:48
2023-03-23T09:32:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-v4DVlgSxDGayoTDyxpuQ
The US will not approve a nasal vaccine for Covid-19 [in 2023]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 90% chance: For a long time, we’ve been hearing about how Covid-19 vaccines delivered through the nose would likely prevent more infections than shots in arms. And China, India, Russia, and Iran have already greenlit vaccines taken through the nose or mouth. Alas, not the US. Nasal vaccines created by American researchers have been tested in animals, but human testing has been held back for a few reasons. A big one is the lack of funding: Biden has asked Congress for more money for next-generation vaccines, but Republicans have resisted. Current estimates put nasal vaccines years away for the US. That’s depressing, but the indications suggest it’s accurate. (Vox) Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:31:17
2023-12-30T12:38:38
2023-12-30T12:38:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EENgIeLnbeDH6ks59MtR
A psychedelic-based mental health treatment will win US regulatory approval
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% chance: Research into the therapeutic potential of psychedelic drugs has been undergoing a renaissance over the past decade, and it’s now bearing fruit. A May 2022 letter from the Health and Human Services Department disclosed that President Biden’s administration anticipates regulators will approve MDMA for PTSD and psilocybin for depression within the next two years. MDMA will probably come first; some experts say that by the end of 2023, it’s very likely to become FDA-approved for PTSD. Meanwhile, psilocybin will probably get approved for depression the next year. But with such a delicate issue as this, it’s always possible that some late-stage questions will emerge around the clinical trials or plans for implementing an approval, and that could bog things down, so I’m only giving this prediction 60 percent odds. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:29:40
2023-12-30T12:38:23
2023-12-30T12:38:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ux8hwu2rVda92nkFkIMM
At least one new country will join NATO [in 2023]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 90% probability. Sweden and Finland formally applied to join NATO in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, in a massive reorientation of Nordic defense policy. While Sweden was secretly cooperating with NATO throughout the Cold War, it was publicly non-aligned during those decades and often vocally critical of the West. Meanwhile, Finland was so thoroughly under the Soviets’ thumb that the USSR once forced a Finnish prime minister they didn’t like to resign. Turkey, a member since 1952, has reservations about the Swedes and Finns related to their support for Kurdish causes, which has been delaying their accession. This means that Sweden and Finland joining is not a totally sure thing, but I think it’s pretty close. The consensus among most observers is that Turkey is trying to extract a few concessions from its Western defense partners and understands that the massive benefits the new members bring to the alliance outweigh any downsides. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:09:18
2023-12-30T12:37:52
2023-12-30T12:37:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6ylpO2Qoc5fc1WS3W1fT
China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan [in 2023]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 90% chance: People I take seriously are genuinely concerned that China is gearing up for an invasion of Taiwan this decade. Ben Rhodes has a thorough, thoughtful take in the Atlantic, and Phil Davidson, the retired admiral formerly in charge of US military operations in the region, has argued China will be ready for an invasion by 2027. Not controlling Taiwan is clearly a major psychic injury to Communist Party leaders, and taking over a world leader in semiconductor production that’s strategically placed in the South China Sea would have geostrategic benefits, too. But I have a hard time getting over the fact that an invasion would be outrageously costly for China in terms of blood and treasure and international esteem, and that these costs would almost surely outweigh any benefits. Mattathias Schwartz at Insider has a useful rundown of the challenges an invasion poses, not least of which is that Taiwan is an island and amphibious invasions are extraordinarily difficult. John Culver, a veteran CIA analyst on China, argues that there would be clear signs before an invasion, like “surging production of ballistic and cruise missiles; anti-air, air-to-air, and large rockets for long-range beach bombardment; and numerous other items, at least a year before D-Day.” While China has stepped up its probes of Taiwan’s defenses, none of those warning signs are visible yet. We saw preparations for the Russian invasion of Ukraine months ahead of time; it wasn’t clear whether Putin was serious or feinting, but he was definitely up to something. The situation with China and Taiwan just isn’t the same, and the debacle that is the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably doesn’t make Xi Jinping more inclined to repeat Putin’s mistake. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:07:30
2023-12-30T12:37:25
2023-12-30T12:37:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hogjwpLGGp1f4ETNSjfC
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia [at the end of 2023]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it an 80% probability. This past year has likely been the worst for Putin’s survival chances since he first ascended to the presidency at the end of 1999. He launched a brutal and illegal war that made his nation an international pariah; the resulting sanctions and mass mobilization of young men from that war are wreaking havoc on an economy that’s also suffering from now-falling oil prices. On top of all that, he’s losing that war to a country with less than a third of Russia’s population. All of these are conditions where coups start to become imaginable. That said, it’s important to keep “base rates” in mind: How common are coups in dictatorships, generally? A 2021 paper from John Chin, David Carter, and Joseph Wright looked through a database of coup attempts and found that in autocratic countries, 6.3 percent of years featured a coup attempt. “Regime change coups,” their term for attempted coups that totally change a country’s governance structure (as opposed to, say, replacing one general with another), are much more common in personalist regimes like Putin’s, with attempts in 7 percent of years. But in general, only 48 percent of coup attempts they studied succeeded. This paper might lead one to think there’s perhaps a 3.5 percent chance of a successful regime-change coup against Putin in a given year (and it’s hard to imagine a coup against him that doesn’t constitute a regime change). Given all the stressors listed above, I think that’s much too low an estimate. That said, the low overall rate of coups makes me think it’s more likely than not that Putin stays in power. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T10:05:23
2023-12-30T12:36:53
2023-12-30T12:36:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gO6ptn9tH2XDppj2wLZk
Inflation in the US will exceed 3 percent [in 2023]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% probability. This past year, I predicted that inflation would stay below 3 percent because that’s what the Federal Reserve and private forecasters predicted. That was extremely wrong: The surge in household cash resources from various stimulus measures, combined with shocks like the semiconductor shortage and the disruptions of the Ukraine-Russia war, meant that prices by the Fed’s preferred metric were 4.9 percent higher in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2021. So, how does one go about trying to predict 2023 inflation when major forecasters all got 2022 wrong? For one thing, I’m going to be less confident. I was 80 percent certain last year; I am much less so this year. As of December 14, the Fed is projecting that inflation will fall between 3 and 3.8 percent in 2023, and the Survey of Professional Forecasters suggests inflation will start at 3.8 percent in the first quarter and fall to 2.7 percent by the end of the year. So an undershoot below 3 percent is certainly possible, especially if the Fed continues to tighten and especially if the economy dips into a recession (see above). But wage growth remains quite strong as of this writing, in a range where even the doves at Employ America think some tightening is required. That’s why I think a rate above 3 percent is more likely than not. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year. Jan 9, 10:05am: Inflation in the US will exceed 3 percent → Inflation in the US will exceed 3 percent [in 2023]
2023-01-09T10:01:44
2023-12-30T12:36:09
2023-12-30T12:36:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-AUIbz5jMurr1bPi24Ulf
The US will slip into recession during 2023
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 70% probability. “The state of the economy is weird,” as New York’s Eric Levitz put it in a recent piece. The US keeps gaining jobs, and unemployment remains near historic lows. Inflation is declining, as are gas prices. Yet there is striking uniformity among economists and business executives that a recession is incoming. What gives? Not the Federal Reserve, which has shown no sign that it is ready to significantly moderate interest rate increases, as it seeks to curb spending and investment and tame inflation. Pulling that off without thrusting the US into a recession would require orchestrating the kind of soft landing for the economy that the Fed hasn’t pulled off since 1994, as my Vox colleague Madeleine Ngo wrote recently. Every part of the economy that is vulnerable to high interest rates — home purchases, manufacturing output, retail sales — is already slumping. Put the current data and the historical analogies together and it’s hard to believe that the US won’t avoid at least a mild recession next year, especially since economic decision-makers are all basically acting as though one is imminent. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T09:59:39
2023-12-30T12:35:51
2023-12-30T12:35:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v5PoY2cQqKiBilEqqsMs
The Supreme Court will rule that affirmative action is unconstitutional [Vox prediction — READ DESCRIPTION AND COMMENTS]
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 70% probability. My colleague Ian Millhiser listened to the oral arguments in the Students for Fair Admissions cases challenging affirmative action at both the University of North Carolina and Harvard, and left persuaded that explicit racial preferences for admission are a goner: “Even if one of the conservative justices who expressed some reservations today surprises us,” he wrote, “that would still likely leave five votes teed up against affirmative action.” That makes sense. As Millhiser notes, there are six Republican appointees on the Court today, all by presidents opposed to affirmative action and all reared in a conservative legal movement where opposition to the policy is taken for granted. Even the most comparatively moderate of them, Chief Justice John Roberts, is famously hostile to considering race in attempts to address past discrimination. The reason I’m not more confident is due to a nuance Millhiser noted, which is that Roberts appeared open to racial preferences at military academies, noting the federal government’s argument that the military needs a diverse officer corps to succeed. If such a carve-out is included in the ultimate ruling, my prediction here will be wrong: I’m predicting they’ll strike down affirmative action across the board at public or publicly funded institutions. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T09:55:02
2023-09-27T10:03:48
2023-09-27T10:03:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yeBe9xTepU1I4VmvG1Cl
Donald Trump will be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading into 2024
This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% probability. Despite a recent dramatic outlier, the most recent ones listed by FiveThirtyEight tend to show Trump ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as his most likely challenger. But of course, polls can only tell us so much this far out, especially in primaries, which tend to shift more rapidly and dramatically than general elections. Maybe Trump gets indicted by this or that prosecutor, which damages — or maybe helps! — his standing with GOP primary voters. While Trump dominated the 2016 primary cycle, there was a brief moment when Ben Carson was beating him. Anything’s possible. My belief that Trump’s the frontrunner (and will remain so per Polymarket come December 2023) comes from having seen Trump perform in a competitive national primary before, and from knowing that DeSantis has not waged a campaign at this scale, and not against Trump. (Vox) [markets]Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
2023-01-09T09:51:41
2023-12-30T12:34:51
2023-12-30T12:34:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-neU3ocCFs2Ox4t3ocA3n
Will Destiny kill or be killed by 2025?
This poll resolves YES if it is reported by 2025 that Destiny was directly involved in an altercation leading to either his own death or to some other person's death. The poll resolves NO if no such story is made public by 2025. Jan 9, 6:39pm: Will Destiny be put in a life or death situation resulting in either his death or the death of others by 2025? → Will Destiny kill or be killed by 2025?
2023-01-09T09:35:34
2025-01-01T14:59:00
2025-01-03T05:54:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2KrJ5mOfIhWfcoKvjjTz
Will more than one member of United States congress die in 2023?
If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day that they die, they will count towards the 2 required for a YES resolution House & Senate RIP Dianne Feinstein, 29 September 2023. 1/2 for this market.
2023-01-09T08:58:16
2023-12-31T16:00:00
2023-12-31T18:19:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lfAMvwEwyHm6oCcPdtpw
Will there be a deadly clash between the PLA and Indian Army during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-09T05:41:00
2023-12-31T20:32:11
2023-12-31T20:32:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xbsl8BgO450RmCAWlYlo
Will Ella Irwin be the next CEO of Twitter?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-09T02:42:23
2023-05-12T09:23:34
2023-05-12T09:23:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oBrqogxkxH52o1QteYOP
Will FED pivot in 2023?
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to "YES" if in 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings. [image] The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
2023-01-09T02:27:44
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T05:08:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oN5U0AleG5jSI64g3BhO
Will Bitcoin reach $14k before it reaches $40k?
Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window above/below these values Related Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le)
2023-01-09T01:06:44
2023-12-05T14:24:53
2023-12-05T14:24:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-k9QIikaNFgFCxFCQFau9
Will a MORENA candidate win the 2024 Mexican presidential election?
Mexico will hold general elections in July 2024, including its presidential election. The Mexican presidency has fixed, six-year terms, with no possibility of re-election. The current President of Mexico is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a member of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). This market will resolve YES if the winner of the next presidential election is also a member of MORENA.
2023-01-08T22:53:06
2024-06-03T05:45:34
2024-06-03T05:45:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DBvG2cyA4OLOZlTknFW3
Will the climate crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01?
I'll check the Current events page sometime that day and resolve accordingly. The article name need not match exactly.
2023-01-08T22:21:01
2023-12-31T03:00:00
2023-12-31T15:35:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-57nR3o9OJb1u9ZZxeujU
Will the Belarus-European Union border crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01?
I'll check the Current events page sometime that day and resolve accordingly. The article name need not match exactly. Jan 9, 6:33pm: Will the Belarus−European Union border crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? → Will the Belarus-European Union border crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01?
2023-01-08T21:30:57
2023-12-31T03:00:00
2023-12-31T15:42:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IXzPWsESXtyp6xdTLNpY
Will president Biden “mint the coin” at any point during his administration?
Background: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin Given the troubles McCarthy went through to become speaker, many believe there will be upcoming fights over the budget, debt ceiling, and government shutdowns. President Biden can get around this by "minting the coin" (see above link - TL;DR, he has the authority to tell the mint to strike a platinum coin of arbitrary value to overcome limits). Will President Biden ever mint the coin (or coins) during his administration? This resolves YES if/when two conditions are both fulfilled: Such a platinum coin(s) is/are minted Biden is president at the time (or was at the time the order to mint the coin was given)
2023-01-08T18:45:28
2025-02-07T11:05:13
2025-02-07T11:05:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qn5DVpJq3W1doQAMmxlF
Will Bolsanaro return to Brazil during 2023?
He is currently eating every meal at KFC in Orlando. The strangest plausible deniability in history. [image]
2023-01-08T16:35:23
2023-04-02T09:03:41
2023-04-02T09:03:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NI2siaBHkBkfhuO3QD3Z
Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2024?
Must be reliable enough for businesses to use as a first draft. Could resolve positively via creation of DCFs, LBOs, merger models, or liquidation value analysis.
2023-01-08T14:14:31
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-02T15:07:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JUzcZWegO5g8qMmlB7Gq
Will the proposed TikTok ban pass in the Senate?
During 118th congress.
2023-01-08T12:50:10
2024-04-23T19:18:46
2024-04-23T19:18:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2adWgSOBhJOq09SYgfau
Will the TikTok ban pass the House?
During 118th congress.
2023-01-08T12:48:27
2024-03-13T10:21:35
2024-03-13T10:21:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-W6NT1nP695oB1nhzN4Db
Will SBF change his plea before the trial starts?
Pertains to his original guilty plea.
2023-01-08T10:11:55
2023-10-03T09:11:31
2023-10-03T09:11:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VD5fAaXlkCcCTT5Tm5Ke
Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2023?
For the purposes of this market, I won't count: Negotiations where one of the parties is not present (such as the UN summit proposed by Ukrainian FM Kuleba) Negotiations about matters not including a permanent peace settlement (such as the grain deal or an armistice) Negotiations conducted through intermediaries/backchannels (e.g. oligarchs or other third parties) An announcement of peace talks without them actually taking place UPD: See also [markets]
2023-01-08T06:23:51
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T02:45:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dRVwPhdFJgQwz9lZoVsN
In Gonzalez v. Google, will the Supreme Court immunize targeted recommendations?
In the case of Gonzalez v Google, will the Supreme court decide that Section 203(c)(l) of the Communications Decency Act immunizes Google's targeted recommendations? Here is the question presented. This market resolves Yes if the consequence of the court's decision is that Google is not liable for harm caused by its recommendations. It resolves No if Google could be held liable because section 230(c)(l) does not grant them immunity. If the decision remands the case to a lower court, this resolves N/A.
2023-01-08T05:24:27
2023-05-19T04:20:41
2023-05-19T04:20:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8z4Y3pLByUDBVi1nfatx
Will Destiny sue Keffals in 2023?
Destiny has sent Keffals a Cease & Desist, asking her to retract her false claims about him. He has said that if Keffals does not retract her comments, he will sue under Canada's libel laws. Will this lawsuit be filed before 1st Jan 2024?
2023-01-08T04:29:16
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:35:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NkgbTaeZHUIFPXi9JUL6
Will there be M1 Abrams tanks in service in Ukraine by June 2023?
The question is whether there are Abrams tanks in Ukraine before June 1st 2023. The market will stay open until end of June. Then I will resolve to the best of my abilities. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-there-be-leopard-1-or-2-tanks?referrer=NickelChen)
2023-01-08T02:24:06
2023-06-30T14:59:00
2023-07-04T09:45:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-F5bi4CPcUtgEJjcWlx85
Will covid-19 pandemic end in 2023?
Resolves yes even if covid-19 exists, just not with an official pandemic status
2023-01-08T02:01:19
2023-05-05T13:54:58
2023-05-05T13:54:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JUlfNvmdZUuEG2rUwOP5
Will SBF plead guilty? (2023)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-07T21:46:35
2023-11-02T22:53:07
2023-11-02T22:53:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g6F0l8yCjw0naAg0l6f3
Will SBF be sentenced to 30+ Years?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-07T21:43:29
2024-03-28T13:05:06
2024-03-28T13:05:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-39yKcXgqGrUMwPRmTZwy
Will Biden die before the next presidential election?
YES, if he dies from any cause before November 5th, 2024, the next presidential election. Else, NO.
2023-01-07T19:11:27
2024-11-05T00:00:00
2024-11-05T22:03:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-37Kd8c3VLzfMVj0u9brI
Will Elon Musk be "forced out" as Tesla's CEO in 2023?
Resolves YES if Elon Musk at any point in 2023 (EST) is not Tesla's CEO and the embedded market resolves NO. (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldMarkets/will-elon-musk-step-down-from-being)Jan 8, 8:43am: Will Elon Musk be forced out as Tesla's CEO in 2023? → Will Elon Musk be "forced out" as Tesla's CEO in 2023?
2023-01-07T14:19:14
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-01-01T01:12:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gEtUlYBxGfkCQVWZWlmc
Will Democrats win a majority in the Senate of Virginia in the 2023 election?
Resolves to YES if at least 21 Democrats are elected in the 2023 Virginia Senate election on 7 November 2023., or if Democrats win exactly 20 out of 40 seats and the Lieutenant Governor, who casts the tiebreaking vote, is a Democrat at the time (the office is held by the Republican Winsome Sears as of January 2023). It does not matter if Democrats never actually end of controlling the Senate (e.g. if there is a party switch or death after the election), just what the results of the election are.
2023-01-07T14:01:35
2023-11-07T23:45:12
2023-11-07T23:45:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-myLOTTxQJFBCwyDOOXqU
Will Democrats win a majority in the Virginia House of Delegates in the 2023 election?
Resolves to YES if at least 51 Democrats are elected in the 2023 Virginia House of Delegates election on 7 November 2023. Note that there is no provision for a tiebreaking vote in the chamber, so if Democrats win 50 out of 100 seats this will resolve to NO. It does not matter if Democrats never actually end of controlling the House of Delegates (e.g. if there is a party switch or death after the election), just what the results of the election are.
2023-01-07T14:01:34
2023-11-07T23:44:10
2023-11-07T23:44:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wbJJhcuR5ymLIhH0Lcib
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting at the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-07T12:23:59
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-01T16:33:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-26LpIGBwWEpwTai0nmxE
Will PredictIt still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-07T12:22:14
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-01T16:28:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jvLOaVvOX4PL0SKTuEwJ
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon by June 9, 2023? (tests included)
Resolves YES if North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon (whether test or non-test) by June 9, 2023 at 11:59pm local time in Korea. NO otherwise. Resolution will be based on reliable media reporting. Background In 2022, North Korea conducted a large number of ballistic missile tests and announced their intent to expand their nuclear arsenal. North Korea has done 6 nuclear tests (see Wikipedia's list here), the first in 2006 and the most recent in 2017. South Korean and US intelligence indicated that North Korea had completed preparations for a nuclear test. Satellite imagery showed the reopening of their underground nuclear test site (previously closed in 2018). Related See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis. @/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-2e1a1fd10302 @/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-36f06f22f954 This is a follow-up question to @/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-422f66ae0107 @/BTE/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear See also https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2659-between-9-december-2022-and-9-june-2023-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device Fine print A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES. A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised Detonation is defined here as nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched or dropped but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count.
2023-01-07T11:10:00
2023-06-10T20:59:00
2023-06-10T21:14:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-l8P2AaSfv2P2PmkWreib
Will Vaush and Destiny collab in 2023?
Post a link to the clip in the comments to resolve the market. Otherwise resolves NO Jan 1 2024. [image]
2023-01-07T10:11:07
2023-10-01T07:57:51
2023-10-01T07:57:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yfb3Cf2LZkX1QtkU1tIT
Will Saudia Arabia produce more oil in 2023 than 2022?
Has rised in 6 of the past 10 years but fallen in each of the last 3 years. Production fell in 2019-2021, rose in 2018, fell in 2017, and rose from 2012-2016. Resolves based on: https://www.eia.gov/opendata/v1/qb.php?category=1039874&sdid=STEO.COPR_SA.A Jan 7, 8:52am: Will Saudia Arabia produce more oil in 2022 than in 2023? → Will Saudia Arabia produce more oil in 2023 than 2022?
2023-01-07T08:52:36
2024-03-27T08:41:06
2024-03-27T08:41:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iOU5NzsfFJJFWYlL9T8f
Will Kevin McCarthy stay the Speaker of the House through 2023?
The speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The current House speaker is Republican Kevin McCarthy of California. He was elected on January 7, 2023, at the beginning of the 118th Congress, after 15 ballots were taken. This market will resolve to NO if for any reason McCarthy ceases to be House Speaker before the end of 2023.
2023-01-07T08:41:02
2023-10-03T16:17:40
2023-10-03T16:17:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PzPTjSi9k6JCDUYqPpe8
Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?
Will resolve to YES, if at any point before the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces control majority of Crimea territory resolution source: Institute for the Study of War, https://www.understandingwar.org/
2023-01-07T08:38:28
2024-12-30T15:59:00
2025-01-01T16:26:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-03Uv6h7F0AuQ8HqK2ddt
A defendant in a class I or II felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023
A similar market recently resolved due to a defendendant using an "AI made me do it" defense for a class 4 felony negligent homicide: https://manifold.markets/RealityQuotient/a-defendant-in-a-felony-case-will-u In 2018 an Uber self-driving Vehicle struck and killed a pedestrian. In March 2019 it was ruled that Uber was not responsible for the homicide, and the backup-driver was subsequently charged with negligent homicide, a class 4 felony. The defendant's team conceded that the death occured and that the defendant was behind the wheel, and thee defense was based in part on the defendant's reliance on the AI to drive the vehicle. This market will resolve to a YES IFF the defendant in a class I or II felony case concedes that the act was commited, and attempts to mitigate culability on the basis of influence by AI. Evidence must be published in the comments before the end of 2023 to resolve YES, otherwise it will resolve NO.
2023-01-07T08:28:52
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-02T13:15:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IrTGytxpRbaaTH1oxNGN
Will George Santos (R-NY) resign from Congress during his first term?
Resolves to YES if George Santos resigns from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, immediately resolves NO. Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it. In addition, he is now facing a number of investigations for possible campaign finance fraud. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-george-santos-rny-be-expelled)(https://manifold.markets/embed/lisamarsh/will-rep-george-santos-rny-remain-i)
2023-01-07T08:18:52
2023-12-01T11:10:01
2023-12-01T11:10:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8r1OQW5e4jOvCnKZJEyN
Will McCarthy make it to July without needing to be reelected as speaker?
Resolves "no" if another speaker vote is triggered or if McCarthy is replaced or otherwise leaves the speaker position before 00:01 July 1 2023. Otherwise yes.
2023-01-07T08:13:03
2023-06-30T21:59:00
2023-06-30T22:16:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QECtBzcV1xL4Yo13fYEQ
Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election?
The next federal election in Germany will presumably take place in the fall of 2025. Will die Linke win any seats as a result, either by winning at least 5% of the proportional vote or by having any candidate win their constituency directly? You can find a summary of current polling here, for example. UPD. Note that, according to the new electoral legislation, winning three districts directly is not sufficient for winning any seats in parliament anymore. See also: [markets] Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm
2023-01-07T08:11:35
2025-02-28T06:20:44
2025-02-28T06:20:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cdeHcxeiQU2GVu4n02PQ
Will MBS visit Xi Jinping in China during 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-07T02:24:08
2023-12-31T20:31:34
2023-12-31T20:31:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-471TrjYh13hKXjZFsYlr
Will Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un meet in person during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T23:39:07
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T20:59:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wdPBIhxbzW6RgH257Rrf
Will Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol meet face to face during 2023?
Jan 7, 4:33am: Will Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol meet face to face during 2022? → Will Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol meet face to face during 2023?
2023-01-06T23:38:26
2023-11-20T19:37:45
2023-11-20T19:37:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-W4euk3HZ9bTCRowblgiU
Will Meghan Markle attend King Charles coronation?
[markets](https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-joe-biden-attend-king-charles)
2023-01-06T23:34:51
2023-04-20T07:26:29
2023-04-20T07:26:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6dFKLuynEiOmwDxNTSYo
Will Joe Biden attend King Charles coronation?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T23:34:00
2023-04-20T07:24:26
2023-04-20T07:24:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qqxjqRH3CEzyMGpTKbXS
Will Xi Jinping attend King Charles coronation?
[image]
2023-01-06T23:33:26
2023-05-07T12:48:53
2023-05-07T12:48:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IXFVX1f1MHABCcDzfM2R
Will Joe Biden visit India during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T23:31:42
2023-09-09T11:45:36
2023-09-09T11:45:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BmnP8ZdHfL4letUap8LW
Will Xi Jinping visit India during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T23:30:43
2023-12-31T20:23:25
2023-12-31T20:23:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lZZQxxXkhmVoxXSzVZK9
Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T23:24:50
2023-11-14T17:59:31
2023-11-14T17:59:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-r57o9uo8b4uAbPJI3uUA
Will a member of United States congress die in 2023?
If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day they die, it will resolve YES. House & Senate
2023-01-06T22:14:47
2023-09-29T06:02:01
2023-09-29T06:02:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ocRU79dDp6xBug3aEBb1
Is GPT-4 a mixture of experts?
MoE
2023-01-06T20:12:30
2024-03-19T13:32:50
2024-03-19T13:32:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PIWAZrAN9NSIYLrrwBDB
Will there be a government shutdown in the US in 2023?
We'll define a "shutdown" as government employees being furloughed. Jan 8, 4:11pm: Will there be a government shutdown in 2023? → Will there be a government shutdown in the US in 2023?
2023-01-06T18:59:58
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T11:49:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3lOA7yt2ITAB2PRFR2Fw
Will any member of the House GOP Conference invoke the motion to depose the speaker during the first 6 months of the 118th Congress?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T18:21:39
2023-06-06T20:59:00
2023-06-10T11:21:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XzPw5giZRvrlltZKxDMw
Will LLMs' non-language capabilities be used commercially by the end of 2023?
Copywriting, translating, conversing, semantic search, data labelling, text summarisation, and code generation are all established uses of LLMs that are being commercialised. I am interested in whether large language models (LLMs) — which are also referred to as foundation models — will have their capabilities extended beyond the natural language domain, in a reliable and commercially sustainable way. Will I believe this has happened by the end of 2023? This resolves positively if the nature of its use is extended by being given an interface with other software, but there has to be evidence of it being used (sustainably) for real commercial applications. A simple demonstration will not suffice, nor does it count if its usage is for experimental/R&D purposes (as opposed to direct commercial ones). If there is software that can design architectural models, or perform accounting tasks, and is fundamentally based on an LLM — that counts. The LLM cannot just be an added feature that does some natural language tasks on the side, it must actually drive the software's core functionality. A lot rests on what I consider to be "notably different" in nature, but if you give me examples of new capabilities, I'll let you know what I think. Since this is a subjective market, I will not bet in it. Jan 7, 1:54pm: Will I believe that the nature of commercial LLM usage is notably different by the end of 2023? → Will non-experimental, LLM-based commercial software have new, reliable, non-language capabilities by the end of 2023? Apr 27, 11:39am: Will non-experimental, LLM-based commercial software have new, reliable, non-language capabilities by the end of 2023? → Will LLMs' non-language capabilities be used commercially the end of 2023? Apr 27, 11:47am: Will LLMs' non-language capabilities be used commercially the end of 2023? → Will LLMs' non-language capabilities be used commercially by the end of 2023?
2023-01-06T15:02:19
2023-12-31T16:00:00
2024-01-06T04:34:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eybXdMSQqXk2o2Dtx1iK
Will the Democrats make concessions to get the debt ceiling raised and/or default on the debt?
MattY says (at https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1611474129064022021 but that will get deleted soon): "Either the debt ceiling will be raised and things will be fine, or else the debt ceiling will be ignored through one means or another and Republicans will be able to sue and lose if they want to. But there’s no universe in which the country defaults or they win concessions." Will I judge that we do indeed live in such a universe, where either (A) we default or (B) the Republicans win concessions?
2023-01-06T14:04:35
2023-06-04T03:42:11
2023-06-04T03:42:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-oyAiIsUjL486mVZwB7i8
Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T13:54:54
2024-10-02T13:31:07
2024-10-02T13:31:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YEVaoZcP05pqHx0FHuGi
Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T13:51:18
2024-10-02T13:31:26
2024-10-02T13:31:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-G55u3kuJS7DQjMqK5DQG
Will any concert on Taylor Swift's Eras Tour be cancelled?
The dates: https://www.taylorswift.com/events/ A postponed or rescheduled date does not count as a cancellation if the concert takes place in the originally announced town, even if the venue changes. Also see (https://manifold.markets/embed/NicoDelon/will-more-than-one-concert-of-taylo)
2023-01-06T12:08:02
2024-08-07T14:01:26
2024-08-07T14:01:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-H24RmpesTe8jm2GqPdTe
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election lose the electoral vote?
Resolves "yes" if the candidate with the plurality of the popular vote loses the election, either by another candidate getting the majority of electoral votes, or because the House voted for another candidate after no one got the majority of electoral votes. Close date updated to 2025-01-20 1:00 pm
2023-01-06T11:49:52
2024-11-09T16:55:25
2024-11-09T16:55:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7USYuGeKSSAueGrT0kvR
Will OpenAI have >$300 million in revenue in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T11:44:23
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T15:08:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BQDpfGGnGxfsQTjWASt4
Will Starlink IPO in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T11:30:50
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T15:05:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MXJxbdlIvsUZjeq2jCkL
Will Pope Francis (Jorge M. Bergoglio) still be Pope on Dec 31, 2024?
This market will resolve to "YES", if Jorge M. Bergoglio is still head of Catholic Church as Pope Francis on December 31, 2024. If for any reason Pope Francis leaves the Vatican throne by the end of 2024, this will resolve to "NO".
2023-01-06T10:02:55
2024-12-31T10:28:56
2024-12-31T10:28:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-V14e38kWV9wruu4NBgjg
2023: Will Elon Musk become the richest billionaire... AGAIN?
Will resolve to YES if at any point in 2023, Elon Musk comes back to #1 spot at Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List. Since December '22, Bernard Arnault took over 'the richest billionaire' spot from Elon Musk. Current toplist: [image]
2023-01-06T09:12:35
2023-06-08T15:48:45
2023-06-08T15:48:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HrDZqbbzBhaHSqpQsKk4
Something relating to India is a going to be a top story in the anglosphere in 2023
I am experimenting with markets based on things I might say in conversation. I mean a top story looking back across the year. Let's say ~top 7 eg In a list of the biggest seven stories of 2023, something about India is in the top 7.
2023-01-06T09:09:37
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-07T14:25:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ni9c5CKbrCtWeFuHEUoB
Will Alexander Lukashenko remain President of Belarus by the end of 2024?
This market will resolve positively if Alexander Lukashenko holds the office of President of Belarus without interruption until 12/31/2024, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
2023-01-06T09:07:56
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-26T13:56:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eNLAE9XDVul3Ureffe6Y
Will at least 3 of the big 5 tech companies (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google) end their hiring freeze by 2024?
Resolves yes if at least 3/5 are hiring by 2024.01.01 (including open applications for "new grad" positions, to avoid situations where they're hiring for some posts but still not generally hiring).
2023-01-06T08:21:29
2024-01-01T13:59:00
2024-01-01T14:09:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-iXJF74LXR3SEIgjB9hvj
Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2024?
Epstein-Bar has recently been very credibly fingered as the leading cause of Multiple Sclerosis: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/epstein-barr-virus-may-be-leading-cause-of-multiple-sclerosis/ Will we discover that some other mysterious disease of unknown origin is caused by a Virus?
2023-01-06T07:56:31
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-08T19:57:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LMeroTrmpaRE7iLfjd4H
Will the next President of the United States go by a different first name or nickname that is NOT one of their birth name(s)?
Resolves based on whether or not their public facing first name, or preferred nickname, is also one of their birth names. Last names not considered. They must be sworn in as president, and "confirmed" or whatever. Doesn't matter if they get there by election or military coup. Acting President doesn't count. Examples of future presidents who would resolve this market YES: Peter "Pete" Buttigieg Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz John Ellis "Jeb" Bush Ronald "Ron" DeSantis Ye "Ye" (Kanye West at birth) Michael "Mike" Pence Examples of future presidents who would resolve this market NO: Kamala Harris Donald Trump Gavin Newsom Nimrata Nikki Randhawa Haley ("Nikki" appears to be one of her birth names) If someone is assigned a nickname and rejects it, it doesn't count. It needs to be a name they are called more often than their born first name, Please comment if you would like a ruling on anyone in particular. Update 8Jan2023: Joseph "Joe" Biden is the current president. His re-election in 2024 would delay resolution of this market, but it would not resolve. This market is based on whoever is sworn in as the "next" president, President 47. Fun fact: The only president to be "2 presidents" is Grover Cleveland. He was the 22nd President 1885-1889, lost re-election, and then was re-elected after a 4 year break from 1893-1897 as the 24th President. Because of this, Donald J Trump or other past presidents could still be the "next" President, while Biden (current president) would not be the "next" president, just serving a second term.
2023-01-06T07:32:40
2025-01-19T23:40:00
2025-01-21T19:02:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Gq7dvaM0ZBYocPrxSvbo
Will GPT-4 work mostly well with the Morse code?
Resolves YES on credible reports that GPT-4 is mostly able to reply to and produce long Morse Code messages. Resolves NO on credible reports that over 1000 external users have access to GPT-4 && it still makes significant errors with Morse. I’ll accept the use of very simple technical workarounds (like separating characters with spaces to circumvent tokenization, IDK). Somewhat better-specified criteria, starting with the most precise: “Long messages” – at least 20 arbitrary English words of input and output; hand-crafted cherry-picked examples like 20דHello” don’t count. “Mostly able” – as major-error-free as in English in at least 50% of trials. “Simple workarounds” – I can still recognize the actual message without using any tools other than eyes and a Morse transcriber. “Credible reports” – at least a couple of sources that are not strongly disputed within two weeks. I expect the arbitrary and imprecise quantification may bite me; I’ll wait for more information and use my best judgment if necessary. Inspired by: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hDePh3KReBMNBJfzx/gpt-3-catching-fish-in-morse-code. Close date updated to 2024-12-31 12:00 am
2023-01-06T06:59:36
2023-03-30T15:00:00
2023-04-10T07:25:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2Pd3HkJjl8jNJeaVY8uY
Will the US mint a "trillion-dollar platinum coin" in 2023?
Resolves YES if in 2023, the US mints one or more platinum coins with a denomination of at least $1 billion USD worth a combined total of at least $1 trillion USD. Otherwise NO. Context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin The trillion-dollar coin is a concept that emerged during the United States debt-ceiling crisis of 2011, as a proposed way to bypass any necessity for the United States Congress to raise the country's borrowing limit, through the minting of very high-value platinum coins. This is allowed because US Law allows the Treasury Department to "mint and issue platinum bullion coins" in any denominations the Secretary of the Treasury may choose. There's renewed interest in the possibility because the US is expected to need to raise its debt ceiling sometime in the middle of 2023, and the current failure of the House to elect a Speaker means the House may also have difficulty passing a debt-ceiling increase: [tweet]More articles: https://www.vox.com/22711346/trillion-dollar-coin-mintthecoin-debt-ceiling-beowulf https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2023/1/4/23537063/kevin-mccarthy-house-speaker-debt-ceiling-congress-118 Currently, the highest-denomination platinum coin issued by the US Mint I could find has a denomination of $100, although the price tag to buy it is $1645: https://catalog.usmint.gov/coins/precious-metal-coins/platinum/#srule=price-high-to-low&start=0&sz=9 Fine print: "Worth" of a coin is defined as its denomination, so total value is number of coins minted times denomination, summed over all denominations of >=$1 billion. Resolves based on reliable media reporting. Related (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-us-raise-the-debt-ceiling)
2023-01-06T06:08:47
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T07:06:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5h7atRspQtTPpUJy82NQ
Will Amazon lay off 11k or more people before the end of Q1, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-01-06T05:18:59
2023-03-25T02:02:41
2023-03-25T02:02:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jRjCcHC0hR453jJdstBR
Will Amazon lay off 10k or more people from its global workforce in Q1 and Q2, 2023?
Global workforce, not just the corporate staff
2023-01-06T05:13:05
2023-03-25T02:01:19
2023-03-25T02:01:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YB732Y21m2UC87gaiyMD
Will Amazon lay off 9k or more people in Q1, 2023, worldwide?
Jan 6, 6:42pm: Will Amazon lay of 9k or more people in Q1, 2023, worldwide? → Will Amazon lay off 9k or more people in Q1, 2023, worldwide?
2023-01-06T05:12:02
2023-03-25T01:59:37
2023-03-25T01:59:37
yes
MANIFOLD