id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-2Z5ZAsowMVbfcZFXZFgJ | Economy 2023: No recession in 2023? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, ... | 2023-01-10T05:29:09 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T04:52:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6rNwDSJs8cjtvbvTnofu | Economy 2023: Fed raises rates by more than 0.75 points? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, ... | 2023-01-10T05:28:59 | 2023-08-15T01:09:31 | 2023-08-15T01:09:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3GYv3AtBypdxpsqav6mN | Economy 2023: Stock market down on the year? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, ... | 2023-01-10T05:28:34 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T04:56:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0d7NL9Rsspeu7HUaXMLL | Economy 2023: US Unemployment rate below 4.0%? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, ... | 2023-01-10T05:28:13 | 2024-01-05T05:53:29 | 2024-01-05T05:53:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rNCtMzILPoDvxRpEcPv7 | Economy 2023: US inflation below 5.0%? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on US economy event... | 2023-01-10T05:26:22 | 2024-01-11T14:59:00 | 2024-01-21T15:08:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GBU09v82WIpjpKfDPSzN | Economy 2023: US inflation below 6.0%? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on US economy event... | 2023-01-10T05:25:59 | 2024-01-16T16:39:36 | 2024-01-16T16:39:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6lhf7NU7wtIkJJ30xohK | Sport 2023: Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on sport events, pu... | 2023-01-10T05:25:10 | 2023-06-11T03:30:23 | 2023-06-11T03:30:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1mICfcRXtaW3PPwl4SQV | Sport 2023: Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on sport events, pu... | 2023-01-10T05:24:54 | 2023-05-04T13:55:46 | 2023-05-04T13:55:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pbGWQwKULxS4dAzAOdFg | Sport 2023: Celtics win NBA finals? | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on sport events, pu... | 2023-01-10T05:17:01 | 2023-06-12T21:11:20 | 2023-06-12T21:11:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OslQQGg5RcGE17ZgiSg3 | 2023 Matt Yglesias' Predictions: Pedro Sánchez out as Prime Minister of Spain? | Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on foreign elections, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
[image]
This market is framed exactly as a... | 2023-01-10T05:06:15 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T05:01:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n8bUwahUZQiQoiyTUOBe | Will Matt Yglesias create a market on Manifold before the end of 2023? | Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. | 2023-01-10T05:00:18 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T08:47:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WjNQFKnc65h1qfV7VtTD | Will Starship put a payload into orbit in 2023? | Resolves YES if a SpaceX is paid to launch something into orbit, and it successfully does this with Starship. | 2023-01-10T03:58:19 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:24:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w3XNpvb99b2GOJGLABuR | Will the New York Times write a non-negative article specifically about Georgism in 2023? | Companion market for this one:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-new-york-times-write-a-non
The other one resolves if there's an article that just mentions a key term in a neutral or positive light. For THIS market, it will only resolve "Yes", if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, at least one article ha... | 2023-01-09T18:16:08 | 2023-11-12T07:23:43 | 2023-11-12T07:23:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UDR3i7cK3L1bzpTk064E | Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct? | I will ask GPT-4 this question when I get the chance, either personally or by getting a friend to try it for me.
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The host is ignorant about what is behind each door. You pick a door, say No. ... | 2023-01-09T16:27:37 | 2023-03-14T21:10:44 | 2023-03-14T21:10:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b4GjZpGI3BP3pyt0e50w | Will William MacAskill create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | William MacAskill, a founder of the Effective Altruism movement.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) th... | 2023-01-09T14:30:22 | 2024-01-31T10:40:35 | 2024-01-31T10:40:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JCFyT7uITQ1FbGcmYKzv | Will Vladimir Putin visit India in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-09T14:12:21 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:59:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9oG5nBxETIxBpITOylFX | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | See the question on metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13471/israeli-knesset-election-in-2023/ | 2023-01-09T12:58:39 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:08:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mmCsS70UNcJpyh3I1ALF | Top Gun: Maverick will not win Best Picture | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 75% probability.
After Dylan Matthews biffed it last year when he predicted that the 2022 Academy Award for Best Picture would go to Belfast, a movie that I’m still not 100 percent sure was real, I’m hesitant to wade into Carpetbagger territory. ... | 2023-01-09T10:46:39 | 2023-12-30T12:41:10 | 2023-12-30T12:41:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sITOmcDMauv5qHQ5gpkz | At least three lab-grown meat companies will begin selling their products in the US [in 2023] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 50% probability.
In November, the nascent lab-grown or “cultivated” meat field reached a major milestone: The US Food and Drug Administration gave Upside Foods, an early player in the sector, the green light to sell its cultivated chicken. But yo... | 2023-01-09T10:40:05 | 2023-12-30T12:40:09 | 2023-12-30T12:40:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EmHQ60f5LTZkUHPYxnDc | SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit [in 2023] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 70% probability.
Starship, the new reusable spacecraft being developed by SpaceX, has been in the works for roughly a decade now. While the company has signaled that the next step is an uncrewed test flight reaching Earth orbit, that project has ... | 2023-01-09T10:37:54 | 2023-12-30T12:39:47 | 2023-12-30T12:39:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SIkGi2PzJpBNF932yaJt | OpenAI will release GPT-4 [in 2023] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% probability.
In its brief history, the research group OpenAI has released four large language models capable of producing intelligible text under the name “GPT,” or Generative Pre-trained Transformer. The first iteration came out in summer 20... | 2023-01-09T10:36:41 | 2023-03-23T09:32:48 | 2023-03-23T09:32:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v4DVlgSxDGayoTDyxpuQ | The US will not approve a nasal vaccine for Covid-19 [in 2023] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 90% chance:
For a long time, we’ve been hearing about how Covid-19 vaccines delivered through the nose would likely prevent more infections than shots in arms. And China, India, Russia, and Iran have already greenlit vaccines taken through the no... | 2023-01-09T10:31:17 | 2023-12-30T12:38:38 | 2023-12-30T12:38:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EENgIeLnbeDH6ks59MtR | A psychedelic-based mental health treatment will win US regulatory approval | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% chance:
Research into the therapeutic potential of psychedelic drugs has been undergoing a renaissance over the past decade, and it’s now bearing fruit. A May 2022 letter from the Health and Human Services Department disclosed that President ... | 2023-01-09T10:29:40 | 2023-12-30T12:38:23 | 2023-12-30T12:38:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ux8hwu2rVda92nkFkIMM | At least one new country will join NATO [in 2023] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 90% probability.
Sweden and Finland formally applied to join NATO in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, in a massive reorientation of Nordic defense policy. While Sweden was secretly cooperating with NATO throughout the Cold War, it was publi... | 2023-01-09T10:09:18 | 2023-12-30T12:37:52 | 2023-12-30T12:37:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6ylpO2Qoc5fc1WS3W1fT | China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan [in 2023] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 90% chance:
People I take seriously are genuinely concerned that China is gearing up for an invasion of Taiwan this decade. Ben Rhodes has a thorough, thoughtful take in the Atlantic, and Phil Davidson, the retired admiral formerly in charge of U... | 2023-01-09T10:07:30 | 2023-12-30T12:37:25 | 2023-12-30T12:37:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hogjwpLGGp1f4ETNSjfC | Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia [at the end of 2023] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it an 80% probability.
This past year has likely been the worst for Putin’s survival chances since he first ascended to the presidency at the end of 1999. He launched a brutal and illegal war that made his nation an international pariah; the resulting... | 2023-01-09T10:05:23 | 2023-12-30T12:36:53 | 2023-12-30T12:36:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gO6ptn9tH2XDppj2wLZk | Inflation in the US will exceed 3 percent [in 2023] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% probability.
This past year, I predicted that inflation would stay below 3 percent because that’s what the Federal Reserve and private forecasters predicted. That was extremely wrong: The surge in household cash resources from various stimulu... | 2023-01-09T10:01:44 | 2023-12-30T12:36:09 | 2023-12-30T12:36:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AUIbz5jMurr1bPi24Ulf | The US will slip into recession during 2023 | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 70% probability.
“The state of the economy is weird,” as New York’s Eric Levitz put it in a recent piece. The US keeps gaining jobs, and unemployment remains near historic lows. Inflation is declining, as are gas prices. Yet there is striking uni... | 2023-01-09T09:59:39 | 2023-12-30T12:35:51 | 2023-12-30T12:35:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v5PoY2cQqKiBilEqqsMs | The Supreme Court will rule that affirmative action is unconstitutional [Vox prediction — READ DESCRIPTION AND COMMENTS] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 70% probability.
My colleague Ian Millhiser listened to the oral arguments in the Students for Fair Admissions cases challenging affirmative action at both the University of North Carolina and Harvard, and left persuaded that explicit racial pref... | 2023-01-09T09:55:02 | 2023-09-27T10:03:48 | 2023-09-27T10:03:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yeBe9xTepU1I4VmvG1Cl | Donald Trump will be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading into 2024 | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% probability.
Despite a recent dramatic outlier, the most recent ones listed by FiveThirtyEight tend to show Trump ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as his most likely challenger.
But of course, polls can only tell us so muc... | 2023-01-09T09:51:41 | 2023-12-30T12:34:51 | 2023-12-30T12:34:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-neU3ocCFs2Ox4t3ocA3n | Will Destiny kill or be killed by 2025? | This poll resolves YES if it is reported by 2025 that Destiny was directly involved in an altercation leading to either his own death or to some other person's death. The poll resolves NO if no such story is made public by 2025.
Jan 9, 6:39pm: Will Destiny be put in a life or death situation resulting in either his de... | 2023-01-09T09:35:34 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-03T05:54:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2KrJ5mOfIhWfcoKvjjTz | Will more than one member of United States congress die in 2023? | If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day that they die, they will count towards the 2 required for a YES resolution
House & Senate
RIP Dianne Feinstein, 29 September 2023. 1/2 for this market. | 2023-01-09T08:58:16 | 2023-12-31T16:00:00 | 2023-12-31T18:19:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lfAMvwEwyHm6oCcPdtpw | Will there be a deadly clash between the PLA and Indian Army during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-09T05:41:00 | 2023-12-31T20:32:11 | 2023-12-31T20:32:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xbsl8BgO450RmCAWlYlo | Will Ella Irwin be the next CEO of Twitter? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-09T02:42:23 | 2023-05-12T09:23:34 | 2023-05-12T09:23:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oBrqogxkxH52o1QteYOP | Will FED pivot in 2023? | FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if in 2023, the Federal Open Mark... | 2023-01-09T02:27:44 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T05:08:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oN5U0AleG5jSI64g3BhO | Will Bitcoin reach $14k before it reaches $40k? | Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window above/below these values
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le) | 2023-01-09T01:06:44 | 2023-12-05T14:24:53 | 2023-12-05T14:24:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-k9QIikaNFgFCxFCQFau9 | Will a MORENA candidate win the 2024 Mexican presidential election? | Mexico will hold general elections in July 2024, including its presidential election. The Mexican presidency has fixed, six-year terms, with no possibility of re-election.
The current President of Mexico is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a member of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA).
This market will resolve ... | 2023-01-08T22:53:06 | 2024-06-03T05:45:34 | 2024-06-03T05:45:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DBvG2cyA4OLOZlTknFW3 | Will the climate crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | I'll check the Current events page sometime that day and resolve accordingly. The article name need not match exactly. | 2023-01-08T22:21:01 | 2023-12-31T03:00:00 | 2023-12-31T15:35:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-57nR3o9OJb1u9ZZxeujU | Will the Belarus-European Union border crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? | I'll check the Current events page sometime that day and resolve accordingly. The article name need not match exactly.
Jan 9, 6:33pm: Will the Belarus−European Union border crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01? → Will the Belarus-European Union border crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events ... | 2023-01-08T21:30:57 | 2023-12-31T03:00:00 | 2023-12-31T15:42:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IXzPWsESXtyp6xdTLNpY | Will president Biden “mint the coin” at any point during his administration? | Background:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin
Given the troubles McCarthy went through to become speaker, many believe there will be upcoming fights over the budget, debt ceiling, and government shutdowns. President Biden can get around this by "minting the coin" (see above link - TL;DR, he has the... | 2023-01-08T18:45:28 | 2025-02-07T11:05:13 | 2025-02-07T11:05:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qn5DVpJq3W1doQAMmxlF | Will Bolsanaro return to Brazil during 2023? | He is currently eating every meal at KFC in Orlando. The strangest plausible deniability in history.
[image] | 2023-01-08T16:35:23 | 2023-04-02T09:03:41 | 2023-04-02T09:03:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NI2siaBHkBkfhuO3QD3Z | Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2024? | Must be reliable enough for businesses to use as a first draft. Could resolve positively via creation of DCFs, LBOs, merger models, or liquidation value analysis. | 2023-01-08T14:14:31 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T15:07:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JUzcZWegO5g8qMmlB7Gq | Will the proposed TikTok ban pass in the Senate? | During 118th congress. | 2023-01-08T12:50:10 | 2024-04-23T19:18:46 | 2024-04-23T19:18:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2adWgSOBhJOq09SYgfau | Will the TikTok ban pass the House? | During 118th congress. | 2023-01-08T12:48:27 | 2024-03-13T10:21:35 | 2024-03-13T10:21:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-W6NT1nP695oB1nhzN4Db | Will SBF change his plea before the trial starts? | Pertains to his original guilty plea. | 2023-01-08T10:11:55 | 2023-10-03T09:11:31 | 2023-10-03T09:11:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VD5fAaXlkCcCTT5Tm5Ke | Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2023? | For the purposes of this market, I won't count:
Negotiations where one of the parties is not present (such as the UN summit proposed by Ukrainian FM Kuleba)
Negotiations about matters not including a permanent peace settlement (such as the grain deal or an armistice)
Negotiations conducted through intermediaries/bac... | 2023-01-08T06:23:51 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T02:45:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dRVwPhdFJgQwz9lZoVsN | In Gonzalez v. Google, will the Supreme Court immunize targeted recommendations? | In the case of Gonzalez v Google, will the Supreme court decide that Section 203(c)(l) of the Communications Decency Act immunizes Google's targeted recommendations? Here is the question presented.
This market resolves Yes if the consequence of the court's decision is that Google is not liable for harm caused by its r... | 2023-01-08T05:24:27 | 2023-05-19T04:20:41 | 2023-05-19T04:20:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8z4Y3pLByUDBVi1nfatx | Will Destiny sue Keffals in 2023? | Destiny has sent Keffals a Cease & Desist, asking her to retract her false claims about him.
He has said that if Keffals does not retract her comments, he will sue under Canada's libel laws.
Will this lawsuit be filed before 1st Jan 2024? | 2023-01-08T04:29:16 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:35:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NkgbTaeZHUIFPXi9JUL6 | Will there be M1 Abrams tanks in service in Ukraine by June 2023? | The question is whether there are Abrams tanks in Ukraine before June 1st 2023. The market will stay open until end of June. Then I will resolve to the best of my abilities.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-there-be-leopard-1-or-2-tanks?referrer=NickelChen) | 2023-01-08T02:24:06 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-07-04T09:45:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-F5bi4CPcUtgEJjcWlx85 | Will covid-19 pandemic end in 2023? | Resolves yes even if covid-19 exists, just not with an official pandemic status | 2023-01-08T02:01:19 | 2023-05-05T13:54:58 | 2023-05-05T13:54:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JUlfNvmdZUuEG2rUwOP5 | Will SBF plead guilty? (2023) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-07T21:46:35 | 2023-11-02T22:53:07 | 2023-11-02T22:53:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g6F0l8yCjw0naAg0l6f3 | Will SBF be sentenced to 30+ Years? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-07T21:43:29 | 2024-03-28T13:05:06 | 2024-03-28T13:05:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-39yKcXgqGrUMwPRmTZwy | Will Biden die before the next presidential election? | YES, if he dies from any cause before November 5th, 2024, the next presidential election. Else, NO. | 2023-01-07T19:11:27 | 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2024-11-05T22:03:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-37Kd8c3VLzfMVj0u9brI | Will Elon Musk be "forced out" as Tesla's CEO in 2023? | Resolves YES if Elon Musk at any point in 2023 (EST) is not Tesla's CEO and the embedded market resolves NO.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldMarkets/will-elon-musk-step-down-from-being)Jan 8, 8:43am: Will Elon Musk be forced out as Tesla's CEO in 2023? → Will Elon Musk be "forced out" as Tesla's CEO in 2023? | 2023-01-07T14:19:14 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-01T01:12:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gEtUlYBxGfkCQVWZWlmc | Will Democrats win a majority in the Senate of Virginia in the 2023 election? | Resolves to YES if at least 21 Democrats are elected in the 2023 Virginia Senate election on 7 November 2023., or if Democrats win exactly 20 out of 40 seats and the Lieutenant Governor, who casts the tiebreaking vote, is a Democrat at the time (the office is held by the Republican Winsome Sears as of January 2023). It... | 2023-01-07T14:01:35 | 2023-11-07T23:45:12 | 2023-11-07T23:45:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-myLOTTxQJFBCwyDOOXqU | Will Democrats win a majority in the Virginia House of Delegates in the 2023 election? | Resolves to YES if at least 51 Democrats are elected in the 2023 Virginia House of Delegates election on 7 November 2023. Note that there is no provision for a tiebreaking vote in the chamber, so if Democrats win 50 out of 100 seats this will resolve to NO. It does not matter if Democrats never actually end of controll... | 2023-01-07T14:01:34 | 2023-11-07T23:44:10 | 2023-11-07T23:44:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wbJJhcuR5ymLIhH0Lcib | Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-07T12:23:59 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-01T16:33:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-26LpIGBwWEpwTai0nmxE | Will PredictIt still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-07T12:22:14 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-01T16:28:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jvLOaVvOX4PL0SKTuEwJ | Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon by June 9, 2023? (tests included) | Resolves YES if North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon (whether test or non-test) by June 9, 2023 at 11:59pm local time in Korea. NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on reliable media reporting.
Background
In 2022, North Korea conducted a large number of ballistic missile tests and announced their intent to expan... | 2023-01-07T11:10:00 | 2023-06-10T20:59:00 | 2023-06-10T21:14:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l8P2AaSfv2P2PmkWreib | Will Vaush and Destiny collab in 2023? | Post a link to the clip in the comments to resolve the market. Otherwise resolves NO Jan 1 2024.
[image] | 2023-01-07T10:11:07 | 2023-10-01T07:57:51 | 2023-10-01T07:57:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yfb3Cf2LZkX1QtkU1tIT | Will Saudia Arabia produce more oil in 2023 than 2022? | Has rised in 6 of the past 10 years but fallen in each of the last 3 years.
Production fell in 2019-2021, rose in 2018, fell in 2017, and rose from 2012-2016.
Resolves based on: https://www.eia.gov/opendata/v1/qb.php?category=1039874&sdid=STEO.COPR_SA.A
Jan 7, 8:52am: Will Saudia Arabia produce more oil in 2022 than... | 2023-01-07T08:52:36 | 2024-03-27T08:41:06 | 2024-03-27T08:41:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iOU5NzsfFJJFWYlL9T8f | Will Kevin McCarthy stay the Speaker of the House through 2023? | The speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives.
The current House speaker is Republican Kevin McCarthy of California. He was elected on January 7, 2023, at the beginning of the 118th Congress... | 2023-01-07T08:41:02 | 2023-10-03T16:17:40 | 2023-10-03T16:17:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PzPTjSi9k6JCDUYqPpe8 | Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024? | Will resolve to YES, if at any point before the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces control majority of Crimea territory
resolution source: Institute for the Study of War, https://www.understandingwar.org/ | 2023-01-07T08:38:28 | 2024-12-30T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:26:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-03Uv6h7F0AuQ8HqK2ddt | A defendant in a class I or II felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023 | A similar market recently resolved due to a defendendant using an "AI made me do it" defense for a class 4 felony negligent homicide: https://manifold.markets/RealityQuotient/a-defendant-in-a-felony-case-will-u
In 2018 an Uber self-driving Vehicle struck and killed a pedestrian. In March 2019 it was ruled that Uber wa... | 2023-01-07T08:28:52 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-02T13:15:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IrTGytxpRbaaTH1oxNGN | Will George Santos (R-NY) resign from Congress during his first term? | Resolves to YES if George Santos resigns from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, immediately resolves NO.
Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in Nove... | 2023-01-07T08:18:52 | 2023-12-01T11:10:01 | 2023-12-01T11:10:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8r1OQW5e4jOvCnKZJEyN | Will McCarthy make it to July without needing to be reelected as speaker? | Resolves "no" if another speaker vote is triggered or if McCarthy is replaced or otherwise leaves the speaker position before 00:01 July 1 2023. Otherwise yes. | 2023-01-07T08:13:03 | 2023-06-30T21:59:00 | 2023-06-30T22:16:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QECtBzcV1xL4Yo13fYEQ | Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election? | The next federal election in Germany will presumably take place in the fall of 2025. Will die Linke win any seats as a result, either by winning at least 5% of the proportional vote or by having any candidate win their constituency directly?
You can find a summary of current polling here, for example.
UPD. Note that,... | 2023-01-07T08:11:35 | 2025-02-28T06:20:44 | 2025-02-28T06:20:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cdeHcxeiQU2GVu4n02PQ | Will MBS visit Xi Jinping in China during 2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-07T02:24:08 | 2023-12-31T20:31:34 | 2023-12-31T20:31:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-471TrjYh13hKXjZFsYlr | Will Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un meet in person during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T23:39:07 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:59:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wdPBIhxbzW6RgH257Rrf | Will Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol meet face to face during 2023? | Jan 7, 4:33am: Will Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol meet face to face during 2022? → Will Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol meet face to face during 2023? | 2023-01-06T23:38:26 | 2023-11-20T19:37:45 | 2023-11-20T19:37:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-W4euk3HZ9bTCRowblgiU | Will Meghan Markle attend King Charles coronation? | [markets](https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-joe-biden-attend-king-charles) | 2023-01-06T23:34:51 | 2023-04-20T07:26:29 | 2023-04-20T07:26:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6dFKLuynEiOmwDxNTSYo | Will Joe Biden attend King Charles coronation? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T23:34:00 | 2023-04-20T07:24:26 | 2023-04-20T07:24:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qqxjqRH3CEzyMGpTKbXS | Will Xi Jinping attend King Charles coronation? | [image] | 2023-01-06T23:33:26 | 2023-05-07T12:48:53 | 2023-05-07T12:48:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IXFVX1f1MHABCcDzfM2R | Will Joe Biden visit India during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T23:31:42 | 2023-09-09T11:45:36 | 2023-09-09T11:45:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BmnP8ZdHfL4letUap8LW | Will Xi Jinping visit India during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T23:30:43 | 2023-12-31T20:23:25 | 2023-12-31T20:23:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lZZQxxXkhmVoxXSzVZK9 | Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T23:24:50 | 2023-11-14T17:59:31 | 2023-11-14T17:59:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-r57o9uo8b4uAbPJI3uUA | Will a member of United States congress die in 2023? | If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day they die, it will resolve YES.
House & Senate | 2023-01-06T22:14:47 | 2023-09-29T06:02:01 | 2023-09-29T06:02:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ocRU79dDp6xBug3aEBb1 | Is GPT-4 a mixture of experts? | MoE | 2023-01-06T20:12:30 | 2024-03-19T13:32:50 | 2024-03-19T13:32:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PIWAZrAN9NSIYLrrwBDB | Will there be a government shutdown in the US in 2023? | We'll define a "shutdown" as government employees being furloughed.
Jan 8, 4:11pm: Will there be a government shutdown in 2023? → Will there be a government shutdown in the US in 2023? | 2023-01-06T18:59:58 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:49:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3lOA7yt2ITAB2PRFR2Fw | Will any member of the House GOP Conference invoke the motion to depose the speaker during the first 6 months of the 118th Congress? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T18:21:39 | 2023-06-06T20:59:00 | 2023-06-10T11:21:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XzPw5giZRvrlltZKxDMw | Will LLMs' non-language capabilities be used commercially by the end of 2023? | Copywriting, translating, conversing, semantic search, data labelling, text summarisation, and code generation are all established uses of LLMs that are being commercialised. I am interested in whether large language models (LLMs) — which are also referred to as foundation models — will have their capabilities extended... | 2023-01-06T15:02:19 | 2023-12-31T16:00:00 | 2024-01-06T04:34:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eybXdMSQqXk2o2Dtx1iK | Will the Democrats make concessions to get the debt ceiling raised and/or default on the debt? | MattY says (at https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1611474129064022021 but that will get deleted soon):
"Either the debt ceiling will be raised and things will be fine, or else the debt ceiling will be ignored through one means or another and Republicans will be able to sue and lose if they want to. But there’s no... | 2023-01-06T14:04:35 | 2023-06-04T03:42:11 | 2023-06-04T03:42:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oyAiIsUjL486mVZwB7i8 | Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T13:54:54 | 2024-10-02T13:31:07 | 2024-10-02T13:31:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YEVaoZcP05pqHx0FHuGi | Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T13:51:18 | 2024-10-02T13:31:26 | 2024-10-02T13:31:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-G55u3kuJS7DQjMqK5DQG | Will any concert on Taylor Swift's Eras Tour be cancelled? | The dates: https://www.taylorswift.com/events/
A postponed or rescheduled date does not count as a cancellation if the concert takes place in the originally announced town, even if the venue changes.
Also see
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NicoDelon/will-more-than-one-concert-of-taylo) | 2023-01-06T12:08:02 | 2024-08-07T14:01:26 | 2024-08-07T14:01:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-H24RmpesTe8jm2GqPdTe | Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election lose the electoral vote? | Resolves "yes" if the candidate with the plurality of the popular vote loses the election, either by another candidate getting the majority of electoral votes, or because the House voted for another candidate after no one got the majority of electoral votes.
Close date updated to 2025-01-20 1:00 pm | 2023-01-06T11:49:52 | 2024-11-09T16:55:25 | 2024-11-09T16:55:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7USYuGeKSSAueGrT0kvR | Will OpenAI have >$300 million in revenue in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T11:44:23 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:08:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BQDpfGGnGxfsQTjWASt4 | Will Starlink IPO in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T11:30:50 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:05:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MXJxbdlIvsUZjeq2jCkL | Will Pope Francis (Jorge M. Bergoglio) still be Pope on Dec 31, 2024? | This market will resolve to "YES", if Jorge M. Bergoglio is still head of Catholic Church as Pope Francis on December 31, 2024.
If for any reason Pope Francis leaves the Vatican throne by the end of 2024, this will resolve to "NO". | 2023-01-06T10:02:55 | 2024-12-31T10:28:56 | 2024-12-31T10:28:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-V14e38kWV9wruu4NBgjg | 2023: Will Elon Musk become the richest billionaire... AGAIN? | Will resolve to YES if at any point in 2023, Elon Musk comes back to #1 spot at Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.
Since December '22, Bernard Arnault took over 'the richest billionaire' spot from Elon Musk.
Current toplist:
[image] | 2023-01-06T09:12:35 | 2023-06-08T15:48:45 | 2023-06-08T15:48:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HrDZqbbzBhaHSqpQsKk4 | Something relating to India is a going to be a top story in the anglosphere in 2023 | I am experimenting with markets based on things I might say in conversation.
I mean a top story looking back across the year. Let's say ~top 7
eg In a list of the biggest seven stories of 2023, something about India is in the top 7. | 2023-01-06T09:09:37 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-07T14:25:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ni9c5CKbrCtWeFuHEUoB | Will Alexander Lukashenko remain President of Belarus by the end of 2024? | This market will resolve positively if Alexander Lukashenko holds the office of President of Belarus without interruption until 12/31/2024, at 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ | 2023-01-06T09:07:56 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-26T13:56:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eNLAE9XDVul3Ureffe6Y | Will at least 3 of the big 5 tech companies (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google) end their hiring freeze by 2024? | Resolves yes if at least 3/5 are hiring by 2024.01.01 (including open applications for "new grad" positions, to avoid situations where they're hiring for some posts but still not generally hiring). | 2023-01-06T08:21:29 | 2024-01-01T13:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:09:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iXJF74LXR3SEIgjB9hvj | Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2024? | Epstein-Bar has recently been very credibly fingered as the leading cause of Multiple Sclerosis: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/epstein-barr-virus-may-be-leading-cause-of-multiple-sclerosis/
Will we discover that some other mysterious disease of unknown origin is caused by a Virus? | 2023-01-06T07:56:31 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-08T19:57:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LMeroTrmpaRE7iLfjd4H | Will the next President of the United States go by a different first name or nickname that is NOT one of their birth name(s)? | Resolves based on whether or not their public facing first name, or preferred nickname, is also one of their birth names. Last names not considered.
They must be sworn in as president, and "confirmed" or whatever. Doesn't matter if they get there by election or military coup.
Acting President doesn't count.
Examples... | 2023-01-06T07:32:40 | 2025-01-19T23:40:00 | 2025-01-21T19:02:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gq7dvaM0ZBYocPrxSvbo | Will GPT-4 work mostly well with the Morse code? | Resolves YES on credible reports that GPT-4 is mostly able to reply to and produce long Morse Code messages.
Resolves NO on credible reports that over 1000 external users have access to GPT-4 && it still makes significant errors with Morse.
I’ll accept the use of very simple technical workarounds (like separating char... | 2023-01-06T06:59:36 | 2023-03-30T15:00:00 | 2023-04-10T07:25:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2Pd3HkJjl8jNJeaVY8uY | Will the US mint a "trillion-dollar platinum coin" in 2023? | Resolves YES if in 2023, the US mints one or more platinum coins with a denomination of at least $1 billion USD worth a combined total of at least $1 trillion USD. Otherwise NO.
Context:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin
The trillion-dollar coin is a concept that emerged during the United States deb... | 2023-01-06T06:08:47 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:06:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5h7atRspQtTPpUJy82NQ | Will Amazon lay off 11k or more people before the end of Q1, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T05:18:59 | 2023-03-25T02:02:41 | 2023-03-25T02:02:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jRjCcHC0hR453jJdstBR | Will Amazon lay off 10k or more people from its global workforce in Q1 and Q2, 2023? | Global workforce, not just the corporate staff | 2023-01-06T05:13:05 | 2023-03-25T02:01:19 | 2023-03-25T02:01:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YB732Y21m2UC87gaiyMD | Will Amazon lay off 9k or more people in Q1, 2023, worldwide? | Jan 6, 6:42pm: Will Amazon lay of 9k or more people in Q1, 2023, worldwide? → Will Amazon lay off 9k or more people in Q1, 2023, worldwide? | 2023-01-06T05:12:02 | 2023-03-25T01:59:37 | 2023-03-25T01:59:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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