id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-vcF4gxnSDSHRVdZzfdQb | Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024? | Resolves to know if Rigetti Inc is acquired by another public company or taken private.
Ticker is RGTI
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:00 am
Jan 6, 7:01am: Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024? → Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024? | 2023-01-06T03:58:29 | 2023-12-29T13:04:28 | 2023-12-29T13:04:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RZxcYw9LMyUnsQ6G2AWK | Will Amazon lay off more than 5k people globally in Q1, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-06T02:37:54 | 2023-03-24T04:10:53 | 2023-03-24T04:10:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aIZ5fAtRqH5vkhDCyHSU | Will a high-ranking U.S. official endorse "UFOs = aliens" this year? | An endorsement can be as little as saying "we should take the idea of extraterrestrial influence seriously", or similar remarks. Bill Nelson's remarks (https://thehill.com/opinion/international/579303-nasa-chief-bill-nelson-latest-official-to-suggest-ufos-have/) would count, for instance.
It's not sufficient to say "e... | 2023-01-05T23:44:23 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:26:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YjXEJCcbi8cWWedDbwmU | Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, at least one article has appeared on the New York Times that mentions the word "Georgism", "Henry George", or "Land Value Tax", in a neutral or positive light.
Jan 5, 9:41pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism i... | 2023-01-05T19:41:07 | 2023-08-03T16:46:30 | 2023-08-03T16:46:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-67YxtMPpsNUj6XuNINnA | Will Joe Rogan interview a guest about Georgism in 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, Joseph James Rogan (aka "Joe Rogan"), host of the "Joe Rogan Experience", invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- "Georgism", "Geoism", or "Land Value Tax" -- in a favorable context.
#JoeRogan #Georgism #Econo... | 2023-01-05T19:37:27 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:54:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h1kWsrYgmedVebEzN1zw | Will there be a federal labor rule that bans non-competes nationally by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-05T15:46:50 | 2023-12-31T20:21:11 | 2023-12-31T20:21:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4DkyQrO9VmyTdblFCvhN | Does the next US President currently hold the title of Governor? (As if January 2023) | The only have to hold the title for one day of January 2023 to qualify. | 2023-01-05T14:51:48 | 2024-11-22T09:50:15 | 2024-11-22T09:50:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0mVBHk4RQVOyNDGNLkF8 | Will Aella_Girl backstab, stalk OR harass Destiny or his orbiters before the end of 2023. | we could consider backstabbing an action by Aella that could negatively affect Destiny or an orbiter on a large scale (obviously if Aella plays a game with someone and team kills them that wouldn't be considered a backstab, but maybe we would consider sharing personal information that she was told not to share publicly... | 2023-01-05T13:42:50 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-03T18:28:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eZb1bf9pGDdpcdWVYRjw | Will Prince Harry attend his father's coronation? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-05T12:35:43 | 2023-05-06T20:59:00 | 2023-05-07T14:43:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p | Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record? | Resolves YES if in NASA's monthly GISTEMP data (Land+Ocean column) any entry for 2023 has the (strictly) highest monthly temperature anomaly, and NO otherwise. The current record is 1.37° (for "2016.13", which I think means Feb 2016). If the format of the GISTEMP data changes, I'll resolve according to whatever part of... | 2023-01-05T11:58:06 | 2024-01-12T12:49:55 | 2024-01-12T12:49:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VIOCMkEIn4Pq1uzHAvvI | Will the US default on its debt by the end of 2023? | If the US defaults on its debt for any reason this will resolve YES. Otherwise NO. | 2023-01-05T11:26:23 | 2023-12-31T09:59:00 | 2024-01-12T06:56:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YIjHlLsUOpR5omgsONac | Will 2023 be in the top 3 warmest years? | I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available). The current 3rd warmest year, 2019, was 0.98° above the 1951-1980 base period. I'll count joint 3rd place as a NO, so currently the number has to be 0.99° or higher for a YES resolution. (That number may change if 2022 turns out to ... | 2023-01-05T10:52:19 | 2024-01-12T12:55:25 | 2024-01-12T12:55:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uB5z6U2ThWWFpmvuSFZw | Will Ted Cruz be re-elected to the Senate in Texas in 2024? | Resolves YES if re-elected. Resolves NO if loses in either primary or general election, or decides not to run for re-election. | 2023-01-05T10:29:32 | 2024-11-06T16:18:37 | 2024-11-06T16:18:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wMdNbJMkFzfAqHyAOZfJ | Will Amy Klobuchar be re-elected to the Senate from Minnesota in 2024? | Resolves YES if re-elected. Resolves NO if loses in either primary or general election, or decides not to run for re-election. | 2023-01-05T10:28:33 | 2024-11-06T12:49:09 | 2024-11-06T12:49:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cZebvzIWvqxOtKDvScXz | Will Joe Manchin be reelected in West Virginia? | Resolves YES if re-elected. Resolves NO if loses in either primary or general election, or decides not to run for re-election. | 2023-01-05T10:26:50 | 2023-11-09T17:58:16 | 2023-11-09T17:58:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4Nr5ltLQiyV1FxA9VDLC | Will Joe Biden get Covid in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-05T08:57:54 | 2023-12-31T20:38:51 | 2023-12-31T20:38:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hq5WAriulS0NqCbIOuK4 | Can China restore economic growth to more than 5% in 2023? | The Financial Times published several predictions for 2023. One of them was the following:
Can China restore economic growth to more than 5 per cent?
"Yes. China is facing a bleak ending to 2022; the opening from its “zero-Covid” policy will sadly claim many more lives yet and is overwhelming hospitals, as the pande... | 2023-01-05T07:19:00 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:58:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-in3zOIN0dclaZOLE4jFl | Will global temperatures reach the 1.5C warming threshold in 2023? | The Financial Times published several predictions for 2023. One of them was the following:
Will the global temperature temporarily reach the 1.5C warming threshold?
"No, but it might as soon as 2024. The planet has already warmed by about 1.1C, comparing average temperatures in 2011-20 with the late 1800s, and by a... | 2023-01-05T07:15:48 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:59:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uvPiwXefjckzMVkVITfy | Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024? | Democrats are defending 23 seats, so they face an uphill battle.
In the case of a 50-50 split, this will be resolved according to whether the VP is Republican. Just so this is clear, the tie breaker is the presidential election. | 2023-01-05T06:47:51 | 2024-11-05T21:26:33 | 2024-11-05T21:26:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sTBazKks6RlCi4243zIR | Will there be more than 3000 satellites launched into space in 2023? | This market will resolve to YES, if according to reliable reports, more than 3000 satellites will be launched into space in year 2023.
In 2022, according to Jonathan McDowell, 2482 satellites were launched in 2022. | 2023-01-05T04:05:13 | 2024-01-10T15:20:04 | 2024-01-10T15:20:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-utS4CvXVwo6AjlW8ezLF | Will Caroline Ellison get a longer sentence than Elizabeth Holmes? | (https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/how-many-months-will-elizabeth-holm) | 2023-01-05T03:46:20 | 2024-09-24T13:18:18 | 2024-09-24T13:18:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nNapEDsq59bhPQ5SrHMO | Will OpenAI have >$200 million in revenue in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-05T03:35:44 | 2023-12-31T10:36:27 | 2023-12-31T10:36:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IVLCVqsY6HYyc1F8x59R | Will Elon Musk purchase Twitter's debt and retire it by the end of 2023? | Maybe he could buy it at a huge discount and make the remainder disappear? Maybe it would cost close to the amount of Tesla stock he sold in late-2022? | 2023-01-05T03:34:15 | 2023-12-31T20:09:50 | 2023-12-31T20:09:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FRUiDsGX7BqQK3LB3sIs | Will Haruki Murakami win the 2023 Nobel Prize for Literature? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-05T03:05:30 | 2023-10-31T15:00:00 | 2023-11-29T14:29:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nwuYkoxH5Vv9NT5vr9qb | Will the Chinese FDA approve any US pharmaceutical company COVID therapy or vaccine in 2023? | Related Markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-chinas-fda-grant-approval-to-a-0816c7879354)Jan 5, 8:11pm: Will the Chinese FDA approve any US pharmaceutical company COVID therapy or vaccine by the end of 2023? → Will the Chinese FDA approve any US pharmaceutical company COVID therapy or vaccine in 2023? | 2023-01-05T01:45:20 | 2023-12-31T20:37:48 | 2023-12-31T20:37:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JOR1smdfEUAv3JlYpfmG | Will the Speaker of the House visit Taiwan? | Mar 6, 3:45am: Will the next Speaker of the House visit Taiwan? → Will the Speaker of the House visit Taiwan? | 2023-01-05T00:00:06 | 2025-01-03T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T04:19:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ojztYZu6tuIt1aJ9lt5S | Part 1: In 2023, will a prominent venture capitalist announce a primary campaign? | On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“A prominent venture capitalist announces a primary campaign. This person runs as a barely-right-of-ce... | 2023-01-04T17:44:43 | 2024-01-05T23:59:00 | 2024-01-06T11:19:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oIhaziOVl173re4vP7H7 | In 2023, will the Bay Area persist as the home for tech founders and innovation? | On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“The San Francisco Bay Area will persist as the home for the tech founders and for innovation. There w... | 2023-01-04T17:29:16 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-06T09:06:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ibbYK5lhebJIjThvzHeX | Will Tesla allow any FSD Beta user to drive hands-free by the end of 2023? | Currently the driver is required to touch the steering wheel in order to make sure they are paying attention, but Tesla can fully rely on the driver monitoring camera to do so if they so choose.
This market will resolve to YES if any Beta user is allowed to use camera-only monitoring no matter how many miles they've l... | 2023-01-04T17:23:11 | 2023-12-31T13:51:26 | 2023-12-31T13:51:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-URZzQYB82r4xhbwXL19a | In 2023, will the "norm" be to cleave 50%+ of workforces? | On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“The 2022 norm has been to trim (10-20% of workforce), while the norm in 2023 will be to cleave (50%+ ... | 2023-01-04T17:20:01 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-06T11:22:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MVfNDHrQzQMkQd9ObFua | In 2023, will natural language begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface? | On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Thanks to the rise of large language models, natural language will begin to replace GUIs as the prima... | 2023-01-04T17:04:20 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-07T21:30:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-F050lFo41Fv6q7iU80Ic | Part 1: In 2023, will Twitter sell equity to cover the cost of interest payments? | On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Twitter struggles to make interest payments on their recently acquired debt of ~$14 billion and is fo... | 2023-01-04T16:59:23 | 2024-01-01T22:09:12 | 2024-01-01T22:09:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-57I0TN3M5XXIwEUihSFR | Will there be a renewed pace of VC investment by end of 2023? | On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Venture capital simply cannot stay frozen for long, and we’ll see renewed investments by the end of 2... | 2023-01-04T16:47:19 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-07T21:35:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NRvP5OfNqBuJPDwKvpj8 | Will Tim Cook be the CEO of Apple through 2023? | If Tim Cook remains in charge as CEO of Apple through December 31, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
[image]
real money original: https://futuur.com/q/166937/will-tim-cook-still-be-ceo-of-apple-through-the-e... | 2023-01-04T15:32:08 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T05:09:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TFYDsKPJlU3golkA5TCh | Will Elon Musk be richer than Jeff Bezos at the end of 2023? | In December 31, 2022, Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk ranked 2nd the real-time list made by American magazine Forbes on the richest men in the world. At the time, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos ranked 5th in the list.
This market will be resolved based on which of the two billionaires (Musk or Bezos) is featured at a hi... | 2023-01-04T15:30:38 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T05:10:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LWbaP3HlAV0DUQ4WU5HY | 2023: Will Amazon launch its first satellite of the Kuiper project? | In 2020, the US Federal Communications Commission, which regulates telecommunications in the United States, approved Amazon's plan to launch more than 3,000 satellites into Earth orbit. The project is called Kuiper and aims to provide high-speed internet to the entire world.
According to the company, the plan is to ha... | 2023-01-04T15:24:37 | 2023-10-17T20:18:01 | 2023-10-17T20:18:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wZrsjnLjeZRUdYp3NhH5 | Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 70% in 2023? | If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in December 2022 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president.
This market will resolv... | 2023-01-04T15:16:24 | 2023-12-27T03:23:31 | 2023-12-27T03:23:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VuI9XWi5jXNDkTlnaPgC | Will anyone run a marathon under 2:01:00 in 2023? | This market resolves to YES if at least one runner finishes an officially sanctioned marathon (26.1 miles or 42.2km) race in less than 2 hours and 1 minute gun time. | 2023-01-04T14:46:55 | 2023-10-08T07:54:17 | 2023-10-08T07:54:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xfoCQMaNrydmSQVLOeP5 | Will Oleksii Reznikov still be the Minister of Defence of Ukraine on January 1, 2024? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Reznikov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ministers_of_Defense_(Ukraine)
[image]related:
[markets] | 2023-01-04T12:37:35 | 2023-09-05T01:31:42 | 2023-09-05T01:31:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qBrBedGnQHL7zBZw1QkY | Will Russia close its borders for all citizens at any point in 2023? | i.e., preventing everyone from leaving, not just e.g. men of military age. | 2023-01-04T11:51:33 | 2023-12-31T16:20:32 | 2023-12-31T16:20:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OCAPhU7s9nBA7NHTYmd1 | Will any US Supreme Court justice retire before the 2024 elections? | It has been suggested that some of the Democratic-leaning Supreme Court justices will retire before the 2024 election, while the Democratic Party control the Senate and the Presidency, so that they don't risk dying and being replaced by a GOP justice. However, the justices are not particularly close to retirement (the ... | 2023-01-04T10:29:31 | 2024-11-08T09:31:40 | 2024-11-08T09:31:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r27OD6kLHpwZjSilt3fp | Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024? | This question will resolve as YES if no nuclear weapon is detonated before January 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. | 2023-01-04T09:39:59 | 2024-01-01T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T17:36:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ogDH2ws0c4ZbqbX808k8 | Will Disney acquire Roblox in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-04T09:37:14 | 2023-12-31T20:32:07 | 2023-12-31T20:32:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QvJS7LBqmspBwZafblYU | Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record in 2023? | Resolves Yes if Forsen beats xQc's Minecraft record
Resolves No if he doesn't
Time to beat: 20:05 | 2023-01-04T09:09:35 | 2023-03-22T16:05:11 | 2023-03-22T16:05:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MHX6RX7XP7dWriHpp83p | Will T1 win World 2023 this year? | https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/T1?so=search Current roster is
Top: Zues
Jungler Oner
Mid: Faker
Bot: GumaYusi
Support: Keria
This team make it to the finals last year and was 1 game away from winning 2022 Worlds. Can they win this year and hold the cup? | 2023-01-04T07:57:34 | 2023-12-14T22:37:47 | 2023-12-14T22:37:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-F4p4JmQKQkZTjpCy9Nhj | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win a Super Bowl between January 1, 2023 and April 1, 2024? | Resolves YES if the Eagles win the Super Bowl in 2023 or 2024 | 2023-01-04T07:17:37 | 2024-01-16T08:35:53 | 2024-01-16T08:35:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sWrR3TiAJ7BIyrMYUEg1 | Will the Minnesota Vikings win a Super Bowl between January 1, 2023 and April 1, 2024? | Resolves YES if the Vikings win the Super Bowl in 2023 or 2024 | 2023-01-04T07:13:08 | 2024-01-07T18:39:48 | 2024-01-07T18:39:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UDiGpM1zFiD59L0MW5sj | Will Destiny talk with MrGirl or Lav by the end of the year? | Resolves YES if he has a conversation on stream with either by Dec 31st 11:59pm cst | 2023-01-04T07:11:10 | 2023-03-05T08:46:55 | 2023-03-05T08:46:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8p0zOcrU162NHXjR2OWn | Will Destiny play a game with Lilypichu? | Resolves YES if Destiny plays a "game" with Lilypichu by the end of the year. A "game" is qualified by a mulitplayer game that is actively livestreamed. If a situation where the "game" they play is argueably a game but controversal, I will have the last say where I gather the popular opinion and what I seem fit. An exa... | 2023-01-04T07:00:20 | 2023-12-31T09:50:00 | 2024-01-02T17:20:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XxvDQSgkuYpKHlYJ71C9 | Will Destiny talk with Sam Seder again? | Resolves YES if Destiny is either on Sam's show, or Sam is on Destiny's stream by the end of the year. They must be actively discussing something live. Any clarifying questions will be answered in the comments. | 2023-01-04T06:38:34 | 2023-12-31T09:59:00 | 2024-01-02T17:20:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DeJ4xzMwGWei7hDcgtz2 | Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation by March 1, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-04T05:02:53 | 2023-03-01T04:59:00 | 2023-03-06T08:50:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rghsLaf9OOpnTul8kBt2 | Will the SEC punish Tesla for any of Elon Musk’s tweets by the end of 2023? | Due to a court settlement with the US securities watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), since 2018 Elon Musk must have his tweets pre-approved by Tesla’s lawyers before publishing them if they address the company’s financial condition. Despite this corporate governance deal, the SEC informed Tesla of t... | 2023-01-04T04:50:49 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T08:48:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uFIIRH1nKrtcVGugrz5C | Will LeBron James and LeBron James Jr. get to play in the same season of the NBA? | If LeBron James and his son, LeBron Jame Jr., get to play on the same season of the NBA - regardless of which team each of them plays for - this market will be resolved as "Yes".
If LeBron James announces his retirement from the league at any point before LeBron James Jr.'s debut in the NBA for any team, this market w... | 2023-01-04T04:40:37 | 2024-10-07T15:21:49 | 2024-10-07T15:21:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aeDjOBtgWJ1cr9qUF8TC | 2023: Will Biden's approval rating fall below 40%? | This market will resolve to YES, if in any point of 2023, Approval Rating for Joe Biden falls below 40%
[image]
resolution: Levada Center, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ | 2023-01-04T03:53:00 | 2023-07-07T08:54:10 | 2023-07-07T08:54:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oeYATU2AGhZvjVYyCiJ8 | Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 75% in 2023? | If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in December 2022 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president.
This market will resolv... | 2023-01-04T03:34:16 | 2023-12-27T06:35:01 | 2023-12-27T06:35:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8CKeM7xyh9z1rA1jUHEU | Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-04T03:00:28 | 2024-12-30T15:59:00 | 2025-01-03T11:25:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5uKfYDRuCKeonUWzuKGB | Will Scott Alexander endorse Ron DeSantis (for president) in 2024? | Only publicly posted endorsements count (e.g. to ACX).
To be clear, this resolves YES if any endorsement is made in the primary or in the general election. Any presidential endorsement (as long as it's not private, or an obvious joke, or otherwise opposed to the obvious spirit of this market) for the 2024 election res... | 2023-01-04T00:45:55 | 2024-11-29T15:50:03 | 2024-11-29T15:50:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jxMC8Y1qX5KZgto7vhnU | Will Scott Alexander endorse Donald Trump (for president) in 2024? | Only publicly posted (e.g. to ACX) endorsements count.
Related markets
[markets] | 2023-01-04T00:45:28 | 2024-11-29T16:02:19 | 2024-11-29T16:02:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zW51SKs0mggt6URO4PDS | Will Scott Alexander endorse a presidential candidate in 2024? | Only endorsements posted publicly (mainly to ACX) count.
To be clear, this resolves YES if any endorsement is made in the primary or in the general election. Any presidential endorsement (as long as it's not private, or an obvious joke, or otherwise opposed to the obvious spirit of this market) for the 2024 election r... | 2023-01-04T00:45:01 | 2024-11-05T22:59:00 | 2024-11-07T07:38:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RbuM4p3qOH0BmlmucGe4 | Will Scott Alexander endorse Joe Biden in 2024? | Only publicly posted endorsements count (e.g. to ACX).
To be clear, this resolves YES if any endorsement is made in the primary or in the general election. Any presidential endorsement (as long as it's not private, or an obvious joke, or otherwise opposed to the obvious spirit of this market) for the 2024 election res... | 2023-01-04T00:32:05 | 2024-12-31T10:32:11 | 2024-12-31T10:32:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gSKsfa1UoVehCdSY4dxu | Will Scott Alexander blog about UFOs this year? | In order for a post to resolve YES, it must be substantially about UFOs (the threshold might be about 33%---references in links posts don't count), and it must consider factual questions about UFOs as being on-topic. It's okay if UFOs are then used as a springboard to another topic.
I will not be betting in this marke... | 2023-01-04T00:30:57 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:25:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0yluC3HmseYLmus4rB0A | Will Robin Hanson publicly shorten his median human-level AI timeline to <2075 before July 1st 2023? | Robin Hanson has famously long AI timelines. For example in an interview from 2019, and more recently, a podcast, he seemed to argue that human-level AI is likely at least a century away. However, many are speculating that AI developments announced in early 2023 will be "wild" and will cause people to shorten their AI ... | 2023-01-03T21:59:17 | 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-07-06T01:12:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lQHoM3KVMRiaxsrjCN9a | Will the 118th Congress pass more than 700 resolutions? | If, at any time before the beginning of the 119th Congress, the number of passed resolutions for the 118th Congress per https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics is larger than 700, then this resolves YES. If it's smaller or the same for this whole time period, then this resolves NO.
If for whatever reason I d... | 2023-01-03T21:45:47 | 2025-01-03T11:45:24 | 2025-01-03T11:45:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vmaT2yqUplP4j38zL6P1 | Will Daniil Medvedev win a Grand Slam title in 2023? | Grand Slam tennistournaments include the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and US Open.
Resolves to YES if Daniil Medvedev wins at least one of the four tournaments in 2023. | 2023-01-03T18:09:13 | 2023-09-10T16:38:33 | 2023-09-10T16:38:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZzlCjpyLlwo08yF96pYA | Will Carlos Alcaraz win a Grand Slam title in 2023? | Grand Slam tennis tournaments include the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and US Open.
Resolves to YES if Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one of the four tournaments in 2023. | 2023-01-03T18:07:01 | 2023-07-16T14:14:46 | 2023-07-16T14:14:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VpBneZwYZOMa4n6nnr9w | War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 250,000 troops by the end of 2023? | Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.
This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2024 - or the nearest available date.
https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/
[image]related:
[markets] | 2023-01-03T14:37:34 | 2023-08-15T08:45:04 | 2023-08-15T08:45:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8q5NtjanH9tvRHEGEWG6 | Will a YouTuber with over 100k subscribers call Destiny a "gusano" in 2023? | It can be in a video, stream, tweet, dm, or in person. The person doesn't neccesarily have to be a "YouTuber", just someone with over 100k on YouTube. (example: Hasan would count towards this despite being better labeled a streamer) | 2023-01-03T14:28:52 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-08T05:37:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GoORUHo5zg7Qgb39YJUu | Will MrGirl get unbanned on youtube in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-03T14:22:56 | 2023-09-04T22:32:07 | 2023-09-04T22:32:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CX9miVTeJnkCP03R8syN | Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024? | They don't need to donate their fortune by then, just someone who is significantly involved in the EA movement who commits to donating a significant portion of their fortune to EA causes. Forbes must estimate their net worth to be greater than $1B. | 2023-01-03T14:14:23 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-31T22:12:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bbBC2mB5cGEvx1jcfk0M | Will Cannabis be legalised in Germany in 2023? | The current government decided that Cannbis should become legal. | 2023-01-03T14:04:50 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T18:00:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IUCVSuNXLbmU9gJk2dew | Will Russia declare war on Ukraine in 2023? | Formally. | 2023-01-03T13:02:46 | 2023-12-31T16:22:49 | 2023-12-31T16:22:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0Ksf4kxJT5iLVQIaRubD | Will the Kids Online Safety Act be signed into law in 2023? | KOSA was introduced to the Senate last year with bipartisan support. It faced opposition from privacy and LGBTQIA+ advocacy groups and failed to make it into the end of year omibus spending bill in the Senate. Its proponents have stated that they will try again this year.
The bill was introduced in early May, the text... | 2023-01-03T12:43:19 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:52:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8TCV4dQbkMg0ObD9fh2R | 2023: Will Bitcoin reach $60,000? | via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]related:
[markets] | 2023-01-03T11:24:31 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:03:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7XXLTHeGEzKtLtrQ9og7 | 2023: Will Bitcoin reach $50,000? | via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image] | 2023-01-03T11:23:13 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:29:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xjLHAC3W47LOx2XwWIvb | 2023: Will Bitcoin reach $40,000? | via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image] | 2023-01-03T11:21:08 | 2023-12-03T20:20:18 | 2023-12-03T20:20:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rfqukogDYaVkmJZgNH1Y | 2023: Will Bitcoin reach $30,000? | via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image] | 2023-01-03T11:18:31 | 2023-04-12T14:42:40 | 2023-04-12T14:42:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Uur14JSjmh6oucbeEWzx | Will Cristiano Ronaldo become a top-scorer of the Saudi Professional League in season 2023/24? | related:
[markets] | 2023-01-03T10:03:54 | 2024-05-28T02:26:44 | 2024-05-28T02:26:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fkLSPKRPxQLOEs62yeJx | Will the EUR ever be worth less than a USD by the end of 2023. | If the value shown at the link below is ever less than 1 by December 31st at 11:59 PM, this market resolves to YES (after the creation of this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD?window=1Y
| 2023-01-03T08:26:25 | 2023-12-30T12:59:47 | 2023-12-30T12:59:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lA7bK5B7Gkecw6cjT7B9 | Will Newcastle United play in the UEFA Champions League 2023/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-03T08:17:42 | 2023-05-24T13:34:20 | 2023-05-24T13:34:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9D2CzeeKj1pYrF7XGo6U | Will Israel host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | The FIFA President and the Israeli Prime Minister announced that Israel might present a bid to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/13/football/israel-uae-world-cup-2030-possibility-spt-intl/index.html
Resolves YES if Israel is selected as the 2030 World Cup host or co-host in the 74th FIFA C... | 2023-01-03T07:17:30 | 2023-10-04T08:51:15 | 2023-10-04T08:51:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JYebmJ0u5wVypVJQHfCW | Will Destiny cry on stream in 2023? | The minimum barrier for what counts as "crying" would be like getting misty-eyed, a snuffle, wiping a tear. Anything less than that probably wouldn't count, but I'm going to abstain from predicting in this market and I'll use my best judgement as to whether it counts as crying or not, if it's a close call.
I'll err o... | 2023-01-03T05:11:46 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-03T15:13:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qI6dd07HjwCCDC1NlDiZ | Will the Reform UK party win any seats in the next UK general election? | Resolution date arbitrarily far in the future, I will resolve when it happens, or may update the closing date if the election date is confirmed.
| 2023-01-03T04:41:04 | 2024-07-06T11:00:20 | 2024-07-06T11:00:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7jAJF5K8sap5GfMFF5BS | Will Germany legalize Cannabis before 2025? | The market will resolve Yes if the law legalizing Cannabis in Germany comes into effect in 2024. In Germany, Laws come into effect either on the date stated in the law itself or if not stated explicitly 14 days after the law was announced in the Bundesanzeiger.
Follow up to:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChe... | 2023-01-03T00:08:06 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:27:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-N4PwSuA7jH9c2y7ucaG2 | Will Germany experience negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters in 2023? (Recession in Germany) | Will Germany experience a recession in 2023?
I will resolve YES if the German economy, measured by price + calendar + seasonally adjusted GDP growth, experiences negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters in 2023.
I will use data from the official German statistics agency. See the (EDIT: second) line of th... | 2023-01-02T23:10:25 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-30T05:36:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gsizjfWsmEwpEDibZFBZ | Will the Canadian dollar be worth more than US$0.74 at the end of 2023? | Market will be resolved based on this page: Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe. At the time of writing, the midmarket rate is listed as 1 CAD = 0.737859 USD.
If the listed rate for January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD > 0.74 USD, this market will resolve to YES.
If the listed rate for January 1, 2... | 2023-01-02T20:59:50 | 2023-12-31T21:39:07 | 2023-12-31T21:39:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WInN0aSfMio9L2cKcEUG | Will the Canadian dollar be worth more than US$0.74 at the end of the first quarter of 2023? | Market will be resolved based on this page: Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe. At the time of writing, the midmarket rate is listed as 1 CAD = 0.737859 USD.
If the listed rate for April 1, 2023 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD > 0.74 USD, this market will resolve to YES.
If the listed rate for April 1, 2023 ... | 2023-01-02T20:57:06 | 2023-03-31T23:59:00 | 2023-04-01T22:58:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HpzooykYfZR5vyldBgNP | During the 118th Congress, will the House hold a vote on removing the Speaker of the House? | This market will resolve YES if, during the 118th Congress (ending January 3, 2025), the House of Representatives holds a vote that would remove the Speaker of the House from office. The outcome of such a vote will not have any bearing on the resolution of this market, as long as the vote takes place. This vote takes t... | 2023-01-02T20:56:58 | 2023-10-03T15:38:16 | 2023-10-03T15:38:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YZ6uDWkJfhZ38BMSy2nB | Will Rep.-elect George Santos appear in court or in custody in Brazil (including through extradition) before the end of 2024? | Update Jun 1, 2023: George Santos's remote appearance in a Brazillian court, without being physically "in Brazil", will not count; this market will resolve NO if he doesn't physically appear by the end date of the market.
This market will resolve YES if prior to EOD December 31, 2024, according to reliable sources, Re... | 2023-01-02T19:48:10 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T17:36:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bKCVj293EkQ0vCDo3CmC | Will Damar Hamlin play football again before the end of 2023? | Playing football for any team in any league would count. Practice would not count. | 2023-01-02T19:07:39 | 2023-08-14T07:03:21 | 2023-08-14T07:03:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-H9emVeEKVr9EHMckhM2i | Will the SEC approve a bitcoin ETF before Jan 20 2025? | See description here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/ | 2023-01-02T18:36:50 | 2024-01-10T15:49:29 | 2024-01-10T15:49:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ifZYHMeBTOB8CRJlhmsp | Will Twitter ban Destiny by the end of 2023? | Market closes midnight 1/01/24 or If https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal is banned or suspended for any length of time.
Vote, Yes if you believe Twitter will ban Destiny by the end of 2023.
Vote, No if you believe Twitter will not ban Destiny by the end of 2023.
Feel free to ask me any questions in the comment section... | 2023-01-02T17:54:08 | 2023-12-31T22:01:00 | 2023-12-31T22:05:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UiIKuo4Pm0pVy2YVO2ad | Will CGP Grey create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-02T17:22:56 | 2023-04-02T07:34:36 | 2023-04-02T07:34:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-X1T4cvkpfLLx32oMRztf | Will Destiny say the n word (soft a or hard r) on stream in 2023? | On any account. | 2023-01-02T17:02:06 | 2023-08-30T20:17:15 | 2023-08-30T20:17:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p5t2hd4vIWNHnFgToAdp | Will Microsoft announce that it is acquiring any of Shopify, Netflix, Roku, Pinterest, Snap, Unity, Discord, Reddit, TikTok, or Adobe by February 2024? | If Microsoft announces they signed a definitive agreement to acquire any of these companies (or a significant subsidiary, like buying just Adobe Experience Solutions), this market resolves to YES.
| 2023-01-02T13:58:01 | 2024-01-31T18:54:00 | 2024-02-01T12:35:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YvE0c0SDdIfqYxLUpxbV | Will George Santos (R-NY) be expelled from Congress during his first term? | Resolves to YES if George Santos is expelled from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos resigns, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than being expelled, immediately resolves NO.
Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, ... | 2023-01-02T13:36:58 | 2023-12-01T08:24:07 | 2023-12-01T08:24:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7vPfUot46yyQ8lR8uJls | Will Jeremy Renner survive his recent snow-plow accident? (Marvel Hawkeye actor) | According to various sources, on Sunday, Jeremy Renner (who most famously played Clint Barton, aka Hawkeye, in the Marvel Cinematic Universe) was working on his land when he got into a "weather related accident". Reportedly, his plowing machine (a Snowcat) ran over his leg, causing heavy blood loss. A neighbour applied... | 2023-01-02T13:10:57 | 2023-04-03T00:59:00 | 2023-04-07T16:39:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ohl4qJNxNY4e6Y2p6bXf | Will Destiny's twitter account @TheOmniLiberal be banned before April 2023? | Will Destiny be banned on Twitter before April 2023?
Market closes midnight 3/31/23
or
If https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal is banned
Yes if you believe Destiny's Twitter account will be banned before April 2023
No if you believe Destiny will not be banned on Twitter before April 2023
I won't be participating in th... | 2023-01-02T12:30:32 | 2023-03-31T20:59:00 | 2023-04-01T04:40:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9MMjOBcJEVkF4tQI0Hkg | Will the Euro be worth more than the US Dollar at the end of 2023? | Reference:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD
If the value shown at the link above is bigger than 1, this market resolves to YES. | 2023-01-02T11:47:16 | 2023-12-30T12:48:25 | 2023-12-30T12:48:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tn3RxUi77WYyFnNtUFsU | Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2023? | Some people are really optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Engineering breakeven basically means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in ... | 2023-01-02T11:46:28 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T08:44:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pzaUjPr2p2MSU5IhV0GZ | Will Destiny reach 1M subscribers (on YT) this year? | Will the YouTube streamer Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (known online as "Destiny") reach the One Million subscriber milestone on YouTube this year (2023)?
Close date updated to 2023-01-16 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-01-25 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2023-01-02T11:20:59 | 2023-12-31T05:29:00 | 2023-12-31T22:00:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
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