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mani-vcF4gxnSDSHRVdZzfdQb
|
Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024?
|
Resolves to know if Rigetti Inc is acquired by another public company or taken private.
Ticker is RGTI
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:00 am
Jan 6, 7:01am: Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024? → Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024?
|
2023-01-06T03:58:29
|
2023-12-29T13:04:28
|
2023-12-29T13:04:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RZxcYw9LMyUnsQ6G2AWK
|
Will Amazon lay off more than 5k people globally in Q1, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-06T02:37:54
|
2023-03-24T04:10:53
|
2023-03-24T04:10:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aIZ5fAtRqH5vkhDCyHSU
|
Will a high-ranking U.S. official endorse "UFOs = aliens" this year?
|
An endorsement can be as little as saying "we should take the idea of extraterrestrial influence seriously", or similar remarks. Bill Nelson's remarks (https://thehill.com/opinion/international/579303-nasa-chief-bill-nelson-latest-official-to-suggest-ufos-have/) would count, for instance.
It's not sufficient to say "extraterrestrial intelligence may exist" in a context divorced from UFO considerations, nor is it sufficient by itself to say "we don't know what UFOs are".
For the purposes of this market, a "high-ranking U.S. official" is any of:
President
Vice president
Cabinet member
Member of Joint Chiefs of Staff
Member of the National Security Council
(I'm open to persuasion if someone thinks I missed someone obvious. I'm deliberately only considering the executive branch, though.)
Adding Jul 30: The statement must either be public, or made public (e.g. leaked, and confirmed by an independent source) by the end of the year. If leaked, the leak must come from two independent sources, and both sources must come forward before the end of the year.
|
2023-01-05T23:44:23
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:26:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YjXEJCcbi8cWWedDbwmU
|
Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, at least one article has appeared on the New York Times that mentions the word "Georgism", "Henry George", or "Land Value Tax", in a neutral or positive light.
Jan 5, 9:41pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023 → Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023?
Jan 9, 8:11pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023? → Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023?
Jan 9, 8:16pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023? → Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing?
|
2023-01-05T19:41:07
|
2023-08-03T16:46:30
|
2023-08-03T16:46:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-67YxtMPpsNUj6XuNINnA
|
Will Joe Rogan interview a guest about Georgism in 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, Joseph James Rogan (aka "Joe Rogan"), host of the "Joe Rogan Experience", invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- "Georgism", "Geoism", or "Land Value Tax" -- in a favorable context.
#JoeRogan #Georgism #Economics #Podcast
|
2023-01-05T19:37:27
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T07:54:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h1kWsrYgmedVebEzN1zw
|
Will there be a federal labor rule that bans non-competes nationally by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-05T15:46:50
|
2023-12-31T20:21:11
|
2023-12-31T20:21:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4DkyQrO9VmyTdblFCvhN
|
Does the next US President currently hold the title of Governor? (As if January 2023)
|
The only have to hold the title for one day of January 2023 to qualify.
|
2023-01-05T14:51:48
|
2024-11-22T09:50:15
|
2024-11-22T09:50:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0mVBHk4RQVOyNDGNLkF8
|
Will Aella_Girl backstab, stalk OR harass Destiny or his orbiters before the end of 2023.
|
we could consider backstabbing an action by Aella that could negatively affect Destiny or an orbiter on a large scale (obviously if Aella plays a game with someone and team kills them that wouldn't be considered a backstab, but maybe we would consider sharing personal information that she was told not to share publicly backstabbing). Aella harassing someone would be unwanted attention she is giving to someone repeatedly after they say stop.
If you disagree with either of these let me know what you think should change and I'll consider changing it here.
When it comes to closing the bet, I will most likely wait until the situation is addressed by both Aella and the person she backstabs/stalks/harasses (if she chooses not to make a comment then I will close the best with a "yes," but I probably will wait a while to allow her to respond). Again, let me know if you disagree with this and I'll consider changing it here.
|
2023-01-05T13:42:50
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-03T18:28:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eZb1bf9pGDdpcdWVYRjw
|
Will Prince Harry attend his father's coronation?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-05T12:35:43
|
2023-05-06T20:59:00
|
2023-05-07T14:43:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p
|
Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?
|
Resolves YES if in NASA's monthly GISTEMP data (Land+Ocean column) any entry for 2023 has the (strictly) highest monthly temperature anomaly, and NO otherwise. The current record is 1.37° (for "2016.13", which I think means Feb 2016). If the format of the GISTEMP data changes, I'll resolve according to whatever part of the GISTEMP data best corresponds to the meaning of the question title. If monthly GISTEMP data is unavailable at resolution, I'll look for another dataset of monthly global temperature anomalies.
For the first week that this market is open, I reserve the right to make whatever changes to the resolution criteria I feel best capture the spirit of the question title. I won't bet on this market during that week, but may bet after that week.
Edit 04-25: To clarify, one of the 2023 months has to be the highest number in the entire Land+Ocean column, not just the highest out of all the months with that name.
Edit 08-15: If multiple 2023 months have the same rounded anomaly that is higher than any pre-2023 anomaly, this still resolves YES.
|
2023-01-05T11:58:06
|
2024-01-12T12:49:55
|
2024-01-12T12:49:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VIOCMkEIn4Pq1uzHAvvI
|
Will the US default on its debt by the end of 2023?
|
If the US defaults on its debt for any reason this will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
|
2023-01-05T11:26:23
|
2023-12-31T09:59:00
|
2024-01-12T06:56:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YIjHlLsUOpR5omgsONac
|
Will 2023 be in the top 3 warmest years?
|
I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available). The current 3rd warmest year, 2019, was 0.98° above the 1951-1980 base period. I'll count joint 3rd place as a NO, so currently the number has to be 0.99° or higher for a YES resolution. (That number may change if 2022 turns out to be in the top 3, if they change base periods, if they change past data for some reason, etc.) If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order.
Edit 2023-02-02: It looks like they adjusted the number for 2019 to 0.97°, so now it has to be 0.98° or higher.
Edit 2023-04-20: Looks like they changed it back again. 0.99° or higher resolves YES, 0.98° or lower resolves NO.
|
2023-01-05T10:52:19
|
2024-01-12T12:55:25
|
2024-01-12T12:55:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uB5z6U2ThWWFpmvuSFZw
|
Will Ted Cruz be re-elected to the Senate in Texas in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if re-elected. Resolves NO if loses in either primary or general election, or decides not to run for re-election.
|
2023-01-05T10:29:32
|
2024-11-06T16:18:37
|
2024-11-06T16:18:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wMdNbJMkFzfAqHyAOZfJ
|
Will Amy Klobuchar be re-elected to the Senate from Minnesota in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if re-elected. Resolves NO if loses in either primary or general election, or decides not to run for re-election.
|
2023-01-05T10:28:33
|
2024-11-06T12:49:09
|
2024-11-06T12:49:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cZebvzIWvqxOtKDvScXz
|
Will Joe Manchin be reelected in West Virginia?
|
Resolves YES if re-elected. Resolves NO if loses in either primary or general election, or decides not to run for re-election.
|
2023-01-05T10:26:50
|
2023-11-09T17:58:16
|
2023-11-09T17:58:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4Nr5ltLQiyV1FxA9VDLC
|
Will Joe Biden get Covid in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-05T08:57:54
|
2023-12-31T20:38:51
|
2023-12-31T20:38:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hq5WAriulS0NqCbIOuK4
|
Can China restore economic growth to more than 5% in 2023?
|
The Financial Times published several predictions for 2023. One of them was the following:
Can China restore economic growth to more than 5 per cent?
"Yes. China is facing a bleak ending to 2022; the opening from its “zero-Covid” policy will sadly claim many more lives yet and is overwhelming hospitals, as the pandemic did elsewhere in 2020-21. But a lot can and will change over the course of the year. Once China learns to “live with Covid”, economic activity should bounce back strongly. Consumer spending will be energised by a pandemic-fuelled glut in savings and Beijing will launch a stimulus package focused on infrastructure." James Kynge
Preferably resolves according to reporting from the Financial Times, though I reserve the right to resolve by my own judgment if necessary.
|
2023-01-05T07:19:00
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T09:58:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-in3zOIN0dclaZOLE4jFl
|
Will global temperatures reach the 1.5C warming threshold in 2023?
|
The Financial Times published several predictions for 2023. One of them was the following:
Will the global temperature temporarily reach the 1.5C warming threshold?
"No, but it might as soon as 2024. The planet has already warmed by about 1.1C, comparing average temperatures in 2011-20 with the late 1800s, and by at least 1.2C in recent individual years. With emissions at record levels, scientists put 50:50 odds on temporarily hitting 1.5C in at least one year in 2022-26. With cooling La Nina weather patterns expected to last into early 2023, forecasters think the whole-year temperature will average 1.2C, but this could change in coming years. One year of 1.5C would not mean the Paris Agreement goal had been breached but would take the world much closer." Pilita Clark
Preferably resolves according to reporting from the Financial Times, though I reserve the right to resolve by my own judgement if necessary.
|
2023-01-05T07:15:48
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T09:59:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uvPiwXefjckzMVkVITfy
|
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?
|
Democrats are defending 23 seats, so they face an uphill battle.
In the case of a 50-50 split, this will be resolved according to whether the VP is Republican. Just so this is clear, the tie breaker is the presidential election.
|
2023-01-05T06:47:51
|
2024-11-05T21:26:33
|
2024-11-05T21:26:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sTBazKks6RlCi4243zIR
|
Will there be more than 3000 satellites launched into space in 2023?
|
This market will resolve to YES, if according to reliable reports, more than 3000 satellites will be launched into space in year 2023.
In 2022, according to Jonathan McDowell, 2482 satellites were launched in 2022.
|
2023-01-05T04:05:13
|
2024-01-10T15:20:04
|
2024-01-10T15:20:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-utS4CvXVwo6AjlW8ezLF
|
Will Caroline Ellison get a longer sentence than Elizabeth Holmes?
|
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/how-many-months-will-elizabeth-holm)
|
2023-01-05T03:46:20
|
2024-09-24T13:18:18
|
2024-09-24T13:18:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nNapEDsq59bhPQ5SrHMO
|
Will OpenAI have >$200 million in revenue in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-05T03:35:44
|
2023-12-31T10:36:27
|
2023-12-31T10:36:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IVLCVqsY6HYyc1F8x59R
|
Will Elon Musk purchase Twitter's debt and retire it by the end of 2023?
|
Maybe he could buy it at a huge discount and make the remainder disappear? Maybe it would cost close to the amount of Tesla stock he sold in late-2022?
|
2023-01-05T03:34:15
|
2023-12-31T20:09:50
|
2023-12-31T20:09:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FRUiDsGX7BqQK3LB3sIs
|
Will Haruki Murakami win the 2023 Nobel Prize for Literature?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-05T03:05:30
|
2023-10-31T15:00:00
|
2023-11-29T14:29:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nwuYkoxH5Vv9NT5vr9qb
|
Will the Chinese FDA approve any US pharmaceutical company COVID therapy or vaccine in 2023?
|
Related Markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-chinas-fda-grant-approval-to-a-0816c7879354)Jan 5, 8:11pm: Will the Chinese FDA approve any US pharmaceutical company COVID therapy or vaccine by the end of 2023? → Will the Chinese FDA approve any US pharmaceutical company COVID therapy or vaccine in 2023?
|
2023-01-05T01:45:20
|
2023-12-31T20:37:48
|
2023-12-31T20:37:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JOR1smdfEUAv3JlYpfmG
|
Will the Speaker of the House visit Taiwan?
|
Mar 6, 3:45am: Will the next Speaker of the House visit Taiwan? → Will the Speaker of the House visit Taiwan?
|
2023-01-05T00:00:06
|
2025-01-03T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T04:19:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ojztYZu6tuIt1aJ9lt5S
|
Part 1: In 2023, will a prominent venture capitalist announce a primary campaign?
|
On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“A prominent venture capitalist announces a primary campaign. This person runs as a barely-right-of-center Republican despite having previously been a prominent fundraiser for Democrats.’” —Chase Roberts, principal, Vertex Ventures
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
2023-10-24: The candidate must be running as a Republican
2023-10-24: The 'primary campaign' refers to the Presidential race
|
2023-01-04T17:44:43
|
2024-01-05T23:59:00
|
2024-01-06T11:19:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oIhaziOVl173re4vP7H7
|
In 2023, will the Bay Area persist as the home for tech founders and innovation?
|
On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“The San Francisco Bay Area will persist as the home for the tech founders and for innovation. There was certainly a benefit to looking beyond major tech hubs for hiring during the pandemic, but we are seeing a return of the importance of Silicon Valley. There was a moment in time when another city could’ve become the de facto tech hub. Miami was too far behind; New York was the only other possibility. But the Valley holds unparalleled opportunity for tech networking and innovation as in-person events pick back up and startups continue to incorporate here. The network effect still exists. It’s just expensive to live here.” —Immad Akhund, co-founder and CEO, Mercury
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
|
2023-01-04T17:29:16
|
2024-01-01T23:59:00
|
2024-01-06T09:06:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ibbYK5lhebJIjThvzHeX
|
Will Tesla allow any FSD Beta user to drive hands-free by the end of 2023?
|
Currently the driver is required to touch the steering wheel in order to make sure they are paying attention, but Tesla can fully rely on the driver monitoring camera to do so if they so choose.
This market will resolve to YES if any Beta user is allowed to use camera-only monitoring no matter how many miles they've logged on FSD.
|
2023-01-04T17:23:11
|
2023-12-31T13:51:26
|
2023-12-31T13:51:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-URZzQYB82r4xhbwXL19a
|
In 2023, will the "norm" be to cleave 50%+ of workforces?
|
On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“The 2022 norm has been to trim (10-20% of workforce), while the norm in 2023 will be to cleave (50%+ of workforce). Things will get worse before they get better.” —Mark Goldberg, partner, Index Ventures
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
|
2023-01-04T17:20:01
|
2024-01-01T23:59:00
|
2024-01-06T11:22:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MVfNDHrQzQMkQd9ObFua
|
In 2023, will natural language begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface?
|
On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Thanks to the rise of large language models, natural language will begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface. Using just voice or text as the input, consumers will generate code, control software apps, and create rich multimedia content.” —Talia Goldberg, partner, Bessemer Venture Partners
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
|
2023-01-04T17:04:20
|
2024-01-01T23:59:00
|
2024-01-07T21:30:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F050lFo41Fv6q7iU80Ic
|
Part 1: In 2023, will Twitter sell equity to cover the cost of interest payments?
|
On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Twitter struggles to make interest payments on their recently acquired debt of ~$14 billion and is forced to sell more equity to cover the cost. Elon makes a play to acquire that debt at the actual value of Twitter (estimated to be closer to $10Bn than $44Bn) and is able to recoup some of the premium he paid for Twitter via a quasi-reorganization. He converts that debt to equity, further increasing his exposure to the investment. He changes the revenue model to be a mix of blue check $8 subscription for premium content or some special form of access and begins to add direct communication features for users which starts to re-attract lost ad customers. He incorporates a payment system that does not require a bank account to transfer funds, only a Twitter handle and cell phone number. Twitter cracks the code on ‘banking the unbankable’ and returns to its previous glory.” —Matt Barbieri, partner, Wiss & Company
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
|
2023-01-04T16:59:23
|
2024-01-01T22:09:12
|
2024-01-01T22:09:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-57I0TN3M5XXIwEUihSFR
|
Will there be a renewed pace of VC investment by end of 2023?
|
On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Venture capital simply cannot stay frozen for long, and we’ll see renewed investments by the end of 2023. The record amount of dry powder at VC funds must be deployed according to schedules and in search of returns for investors. The VC community is driven by rumors and groupthink. All it will take to unlock a furious wave of pent-up demand is one person investing and sparking everyone else’s fear of missing out.” —Peter Pezaris, SVP of strategy and experience, New Relic
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
|
2023-01-04T16:47:19
|
2024-01-01T23:59:00
|
2024-01-07T21:35:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NRvP5OfNqBuJPDwKvpj8
|
Will Tim Cook be the CEO of Apple through 2023?
|
If Tim Cook remains in charge as CEO of Apple through December 31, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
[image]
real money original: https://futuur.com/q/166937/will-tim-cook-still-be-ceo-of-apple-through-the-end-of-2023
|
2023-01-04T15:32:08
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-02T05:09:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TFYDsKPJlU3golkA5TCh
|
Will Elon Musk be richer than Jeff Bezos at the end of 2023?
|
In December 31, 2022, Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk ranked 2nd the real-time list made by American magazine Forbes on the richest men in the world. At the time, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos ranked 5th in the list.
This market will be resolved based on which of the two billionaires (Musk or Bezos) is featured at a higher rank than the other on Forbes real-time list of the richest men on Earth on December 31, 2023, as made available at https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires.
[image]real money original: https://futuur.com/q/166938/who-will-be-richer-at-the-end-of-2023-elon-musk-or-jeff-bezos
Jan 5, 11:29am: Will Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos be richer at the end of 2023? → Will Elon Musk be richer than Jeff Bezos at the end of 2023?
|
2023-01-04T15:30:38
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-02T05:10:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LWbaP3HlAV0DUQ4WU5HY
|
2023: Will Amazon launch its first satellite of the Kuiper project?
|
In 2020, the US Federal Communications Commission, which regulates telecommunications in the United States, approved Amazon's plan to launch more than 3,000 satellites into Earth orbit. The project is called Kuiper and aims to provide high-speed internet to the entire world.
According to the company, the plan is to have half of the satellites in space by 2026, while all of them would be in orbit by 2029. By the time of the project's approval, however, Amazon was still to reveal who would be its commercial partner to launch the rockets.
If by December 31, 2023, Amazon does manage to successfully launch the first Kuiper satellite to orbit the Earth, this market will resolve to "yes".
original: https://futuur.com/q/166949/will-the-first-amazon-satellite-of-the-kuiper-project-be-launched-by-the-end-of-2023
|
2023-01-04T15:24:37
|
2023-10-17T20:18:01
|
2023-10-17T20:18:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wZrsjnLjeZRUdYp3NhH5
|
Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 70% in 2023?
|
If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in December 2022 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president.
This market will resolve to YES, if in any month of 2023, survey indicates Putin's approval rating lower than 70%.
[image]
resolution: Levada Center, https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/
|
2023-01-04T15:16:24
|
2023-12-27T03:23:31
|
2023-12-27T03:23:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VuI9XWi5jXNDkTlnaPgC
|
Will anyone run a marathon under 2:01:00 in 2023?
|
This market resolves to YES if at least one runner finishes an officially sanctioned marathon (26.1 miles or 42.2km) race in less than 2 hours and 1 minute gun time.
|
2023-01-04T14:46:55
|
2023-10-08T07:54:17
|
2023-10-08T07:54:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xfoCQMaNrydmSQVLOeP5
|
Will Oleksii Reznikov still be the Minister of Defence of Ukraine on January 1, 2024?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Reznikov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ministers_of_Defense_(Ukraine)
[image]related:
[markets]
|
2023-01-04T12:37:35
|
2023-09-05T01:31:42
|
2023-09-05T01:31:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qBrBedGnQHL7zBZw1QkY
|
Will Russia close its borders for all citizens at any point in 2023?
|
i.e., preventing everyone from leaving, not just e.g. men of military age.
|
2023-01-04T11:51:33
|
2023-12-31T16:20:32
|
2023-12-31T16:20:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OCAPhU7s9nBA7NHTYmd1
|
Will any US Supreme Court justice retire before the 2024 elections?
|
It has been suggested that some of the Democratic-leaning Supreme Court justices will retire before the 2024 election, while the Democratic Party control the Senate and the Presidency, so that they don't risk dying and being replaced by a GOP justice. However, the justices are not particularly close to retirement (the oldest Democratic justice is Sonia Sotomayor, at 68), so they might want to wait it out.
Resolves YES if any US Supreme Court justice retires before the 2024 elections, regardless of the party they lean towards.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gabrielle/will-the-democrats-control-the-us-s)
|
2023-01-04T10:29:31
|
2024-11-08T09:31:40
|
2024-11-08T09:31:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r27OD6kLHpwZjSilt3fp
|
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?
|
This question will resolve as YES if no nuclear weapon is detonated before January 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests.
|
2023-01-04T09:39:59
|
2024-01-01T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T17:36:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ogDH2ws0c4ZbqbX808k8
|
Will Disney acquire Roblox in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-04T09:37:14
|
2023-12-31T20:32:07
|
2023-12-31T20:32:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QvJS7LBqmspBwZafblYU
|
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record in 2023?
|
Resolves Yes if Forsen beats xQc's Minecraft record
Resolves No if he doesn't
Time to beat: 20:05
|
2023-01-04T09:09:35
|
2023-03-22T16:05:11
|
2023-03-22T16:05:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MHX6RX7XP7dWriHpp83p
|
Will T1 win World 2023 this year?
|
https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/T1?so=search Current roster is
Top: Zues
Jungler Oner
Mid: Faker
Bot: GumaYusi
Support: Keria
This team make it to the finals last year and was 1 game away from winning 2022 Worlds. Can they win this year and hold the cup?
|
2023-01-04T07:57:34
|
2023-12-14T22:37:47
|
2023-12-14T22:37:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F4p4JmQKQkZTjpCy9Nhj
|
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win a Super Bowl between January 1, 2023 and April 1, 2024?
|
Resolves YES if the Eagles win the Super Bowl in 2023 or 2024
|
2023-01-04T07:17:37
|
2024-01-16T08:35:53
|
2024-01-16T08:35:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sWrR3TiAJ7BIyrMYUEg1
|
Will the Minnesota Vikings win a Super Bowl between January 1, 2023 and April 1, 2024?
|
Resolves YES if the Vikings win the Super Bowl in 2023 or 2024
|
2023-01-04T07:13:08
|
2024-01-07T18:39:48
|
2024-01-07T18:39:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UDiGpM1zFiD59L0MW5sj
|
Will Destiny talk with MrGirl or Lav by the end of the year?
|
Resolves YES if he has a conversation on stream with either by Dec 31st 11:59pm cst
|
2023-01-04T07:11:10
|
2023-03-05T08:46:55
|
2023-03-05T08:46:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8p0zOcrU162NHXjR2OWn
|
Will Destiny play a game with Lilypichu?
|
Resolves YES if Destiny plays a "game" with Lilypichu by the end of the year. A "game" is qualified by a mulitplayer game that is actively livestreamed. If a situation where the "game" they play is argueably a game but controversal, I will have the last say where I gather the popular opinion and what I seem fit. An example of a game I wouldn't count is Got Rhythm, but I would count a game like chess. You can ask any clarifying questions if you'd like.
|
2023-01-04T07:00:20
|
2023-12-31T09:50:00
|
2024-01-02T17:20:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XxvDQSgkuYpKHlYJ71C9
|
Will Destiny talk with Sam Seder again?
|
Resolves YES if Destiny is either on Sam's show, or Sam is on Destiny's stream by the end of the year. They must be actively discussing something live. Any clarifying questions will be answered in the comments.
|
2023-01-04T06:38:34
|
2023-12-31T09:59:00
|
2024-01-02T17:20:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DeJ4xzMwGWei7hDcgtz2
|
Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation by March 1, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-04T05:02:53
|
2023-03-01T04:59:00
|
2023-03-06T08:50:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rghsLaf9OOpnTul8kBt2
|
Will the SEC punish Tesla for any of Elon Musk’s tweets by the end of 2023?
|
Due to a court settlement with the US securities watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), since 2018 Elon Musk must have his tweets pre-approved by Tesla’s lawyers before publishing them if they address the company’s financial condition. Despite this corporate governance deal, the SEC informed Tesla of two breaches by Musk in 2020.
If Tesla gets convicted for any breach in governance linked to Elon Musk’s tweets by December 31st, 2023, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.
original: https://futuur.com/q/166957/will-the-sec-punish-tesla-for-any-of-elon-musks-tweets-by-the-end-of-2023
|
2023-01-04T04:50:49
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-02T08:48:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uFIIRH1nKrtcVGugrz5C
|
Will LeBron James and LeBron James Jr. get to play in the same season of the NBA?
|
If LeBron James and his son, LeBron Jame Jr., get to play on the same season of the NBA - regardless of which team each of them plays for - this market will be resolved as "Yes".
If LeBron James announces his retirement from the league at any point before LeBron James Jr.'s debut in the NBA for any team, this market will be resolved as "No", even if LeBron James returns to playing in the league afterward.
[image]original: https://futuur.com/q/123167/will-lebron-james-and-lebron-james-jr-get-play-same-season-nba
|
2023-01-04T04:40:37
|
2024-10-07T15:21:49
|
2024-10-07T15:21:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aeDjOBtgWJ1cr9qUF8TC
|
2023: Will Biden's approval rating fall below 40%?
|
This market will resolve to YES, if in any point of 2023, Approval Rating for Joe Biden falls below 40%
[image]
resolution: Levada Center, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
|
2023-01-04T03:53:00
|
2023-07-07T08:54:10
|
2023-07-07T08:54:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oeYATU2AGhZvjVYyCiJ8
|
Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 75% in 2023?
|
If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in December 2022 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president.
This market will resolve to YES, if in any month of 2023, survey indicates Putin's approval rating lower than 75%.
[image]
resolution: Levada Center, https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/
|
2023-01-04T03:34:16
|
2023-12-27T06:35:01
|
2023-12-27T06:35:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8CKeM7xyh9z1rA1jUHEU
|
Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-04T03:00:28
|
2024-12-30T15:59:00
|
2025-01-03T11:25:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5uKfYDRuCKeonUWzuKGB
|
Will Scott Alexander endorse Ron DeSantis (for president) in 2024?
|
Only publicly posted endorsements count (e.g. to ACX).
To be clear, this resolves YES if any endorsement is made in the primary or in the general election. Any presidential endorsement (as long as it's not private, or an obvious joke, or otherwise opposed to the obvious spirit of this market) for the 2024 election results in a YES.
Related markets
[markets]
|
2023-01-04T00:45:55
|
2024-11-29T15:50:03
|
2024-11-29T15:50:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jxMC8Y1qX5KZgto7vhnU
|
Will Scott Alexander endorse Donald Trump (for president) in 2024?
|
Only publicly posted (e.g. to ACX) endorsements count.
Related markets
[markets]
|
2023-01-04T00:45:28
|
2024-11-29T16:02:19
|
2024-11-29T16:02:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zW51SKs0mggt6URO4PDS
|
Will Scott Alexander endorse a presidential candidate in 2024?
|
Only endorsements posted publicly (mainly to ACX) count.
To be clear, this resolves YES if any endorsement is made in the primary or in the general election. Any presidential endorsement (as long as it's not private, or an obvious joke, or otherwise opposed to the obvious spirit of this market) for the 2024 election results in a YES.
Related markets
[markets]Jan 4, 8:40pm: Will Scott Alexander endorse any presidential candidate in 2024? → Will Scott Alexander endorse a presidential candidate in 2024?
|
2023-01-04T00:45:01
|
2024-11-05T22:59:00
|
2024-11-07T07:38:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RbuM4p3qOH0BmlmucGe4
|
Will Scott Alexander endorse Joe Biden in 2024?
|
Only publicly posted endorsements count (e.g. to ACX).
To be clear, this resolves YES if any endorsement is made in the primary or in the general election. Any presidential endorsement (as long as it's not private, or an obvious joke, or otherwise opposed to the obvious spirit of this market) for the 2024 election results in a YES.
Related markets
[markets]
|
2023-01-04T00:32:05
|
2024-12-31T10:32:11
|
2024-12-31T10:32:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gSKsfa1UoVehCdSY4dxu
|
Will Scott Alexander blog about UFOs this year?
|
In order for a post to resolve YES, it must be substantially about UFOs (the threshold might be about 33%---references in links posts don't count), and it must consider factual questions about UFOs as being on-topic. It's okay if UFOs are then used as a springboard to another topic.
I will not be betting in this market.
|
2023-01-04T00:30:57
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:25:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0yluC3HmseYLmus4rB0A
|
Will Robin Hanson publicly shorten his median human-level AI timeline to <2075 before July 1st 2023?
|
Robin Hanson has famously long AI timelines. For example in an interview from 2019, and more recently, a podcast, he seemed to argue that human-level AI is likely at least a century away. However, many are speculating that AI developments announced in early 2023 will be "wild" and will cause people to shorten their AI timelines.
This question resolves to YES if Robin Hanson publicly changes his mind before July 1st 2023, and clearly indicates that his median human-level AI timeline has moved to before 2075. Here is a non-exaustive list of example scenarios that would count towards positive resolution:
He releases a blog post indicating that he now expects robots to receive >50% of Gross World Product within 5 decades.
He says in a public talk published before July 1st that he now thinks ems will probably be invented in the 2060s.
He says in a podcast that he "now finds it very plausible" that the labor force participation rate will fall to <10% due to robots by 2050.
If it's ambiguous whether he's changed his mind, I'll tweet at him and ask. If he does not reply within roughly 2 weeks, the question will resolve to N/A. If he does not change his mind, this question resolves to NO.
|
2023-01-03T21:59:17
|
2023-07-01T00:00:00
|
2023-07-06T01:12:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lQHoM3KVMRiaxsrjCN9a
|
Will the 118th Congress pass more than 700 resolutions?
|
If, at any time before the beginning of the 119th Congress, the number of passed resolutions for the 118th Congress per https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics is larger than 700, then this resolves YES. If it's smaller or the same for this whole time period, then this resolves NO.
If for whatever reason I deem that site to be inaccurate, I reserve the right to choose an alternate source (which is backed by market consensus). If no such source can be found, then this will resolve N/A.
Why I'm Asking: I've heard various pundits say that if McCarthy isn't elected on the first ballot then "the Republican majority [would be] hopelessly damaged from the start" (NYT). Well, that's happened. And one measure of how strong a majority is, is how many resolutions did it pass.
All Number of Resolutions Passed Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-01-03T21:45:47
|
2025-01-03T11:45:24
|
2025-01-03T11:45:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vmaT2yqUplP4j38zL6P1
|
Will Daniil Medvedev win a Grand Slam title in 2023?
|
Grand Slam tennistournaments include the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and US Open.
Resolves to YES if Daniil Medvedev wins at least one of the four tournaments in 2023.
|
2023-01-03T18:09:13
|
2023-09-10T16:38:33
|
2023-09-10T16:38:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZzlCjpyLlwo08yF96pYA
|
Will Carlos Alcaraz win a Grand Slam title in 2023?
|
Grand Slam tennis tournaments include the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and US Open.
Resolves to YES if Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one of the four tournaments in 2023.
|
2023-01-03T18:07:01
|
2023-07-16T14:14:46
|
2023-07-16T14:14:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VpBneZwYZOMa4n6nnr9w
|
War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 250,000 troops by the end of 2023?
|
Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.
This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2024 - or the nearest available date.
https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/
[image]related:
[markets]
|
2023-01-03T14:37:34
|
2023-08-15T08:45:04
|
2023-08-15T08:45:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8q5NtjanH9tvRHEGEWG6
|
Will a YouTuber with over 100k subscribers call Destiny a "gusano" in 2023?
|
It can be in a video, stream, tweet, dm, or in person. The person doesn't neccesarily have to be a "YouTuber", just someone with over 100k on YouTube. (example: Hasan would count towards this despite being better labeled a streamer)
|
2023-01-03T14:28:52
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-08T05:37:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GoORUHo5zg7Qgb39YJUu
|
Will MrGirl get unbanned on youtube in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-03T14:22:56
|
2023-09-04T22:32:07
|
2023-09-04T22:32:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CX9miVTeJnkCP03R8syN
|
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024?
|
They don't need to donate their fortune by then, just someone who is significantly involved in the EA movement who commits to donating a significant portion of their fortune to EA causes. Forbes must estimate their net worth to be greater than $1B.
|
2023-01-03T14:14:23
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-31T22:12:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bbBC2mB5cGEvx1jcfk0M
|
Will Cannabis be legalised in Germany in 2023?
|
The current government decided that Cannbis should become legal.
|
2023-01-03T14:04:50
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T18:00:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IUCVSuNXLbmU9gJk2dew
|
Will Russia declare war on Ukraine in 2023?
|
Formally.
|
2023-01-03T13:02:46
|
2023-12-31T16:22:49
|
2023-12-31T16:22:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0Ksf4kxJT5iLVQIaRubD
|
Will the Kids Online Safety Act be signed into law in 2023?
|
KOSA was introduced to the Senate last year with bipartisan support. It faced opposition from privacy and LGBTQIA+ advocacy groups and failed to make it into the end of year omibus spending bill in the Senate. Its proponents have stated that they will try again this year.
The bill was introduced in early May, the text is here. So we'll go with whether this gets signed into law this year.
[markets]
|
2023-01-03T12:43:19
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:52:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8TCV4dQbkMg0ObD9fh2R
|
2023: Will Bitcoin reach $60,000?
|
via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]related:
[markets]
|
2023-01-03T11:24:31
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:03:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7XXLTHeGEzKtLtrQ9og7
|
2023: Will Bitcoin reach $50,000?
|
via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-01-03T11:23:13
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T05:29:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xjLHAC3W47LOx2XwWIvb
|
2023: Will Bitcoin reach $40,000?
|
via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-01-03T11:21:08
|
2023-12-03T20:20:18
|
2023-12-03T20:20:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rfqukogDYaVkmJZgNH1Y
|
2023: Will Bitcoin reach $30,000?
|
via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-01-03T11:18:31
|
2023-04-12T14:42:40
|
2023-04-12T14:42:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Uur14JSjmh6oucbeEWzx
|
Will Cristiano Ronaldo become a top-scorer of the Saudi Professional League in season 2023/24?
|
related:
[markets]
|
2023-01-03T10:03:54
|
2024-05-28T02:26:44
|
2024-05-28T02:26:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fkLSPKRPxQLOEs62yeJx
|
Will the EUR ever be worth less than a USD by the end of 2023.
|
If the value shown at the link below is ever less than 1 by December 31st at 11:59 PM, this market resolves to YES (after the creation of this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD?window=1Y
|
2023-01-03T08:26:25
|
2023-12-30T12:59:47
|
2023-12-30T12:59:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lA7bK5B7Gkecw6cjT7B9
|
Will Newcastle United play in the UEFA Champions League 2023/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-03T08:17:42
|
2023-05-24T13:34:20
|
2023-05-24T13:34:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9D2CzeeKj1pYrF7XGo6U
|
Will Israel host the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
|
The FIFA President and the Israeli Prime Minister announced that Israel might present a bid to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/13/football/israel-uae-world-cup-2030-possibility-spt-intl/index.html
Resolves YES if Israel is selected as the 2030 World Cup host or co-host in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024.
Close date updated to 2024-04-01 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-03T07:17:30
|
2023-10-04T08:51:15
|
2023-10-04T08:51:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JYebmJ0u5wVypVJQHfCW
|
Will Destiny cry on stream in 2023?
|
The minimum barrier for what counts as "crying" would be like getting misty-eyed, a snuffle, wiping a tear. Anything less than that probably wouldn't count, but I'm going to abstain from predicting in this market and I'll use my best judgement as to whether it counts as crying or not, if it's a close call.
I'll err on the side of yes for the spirit of this market, so it's not like he has to be balling his eyes out for it to count.
YES = Destiny crise on stream in 2023.
NO = Destiny doesn't cry on stream in 2023.
|
2023-01-03T05:11:46
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-03T15:13:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qI6dd07HjwCCDC1NlDiZ
|
Will the Reform UK party win any seats in the next UK general election?
|
Resolution date arbitrarily far in the future, I will resolve when it happens, or may update the closing date if the election date is confirmed.
|
2023-01-03T04:41:04
|
2024-07-06T11:00:20
|
2024-07-06T11:00:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7jAJF5K8sap5GfMFF5BS
|
Will Germany legalize Cannabis before 2025?
|
The market will resolve Yes if the law legalizing Cannabis in Germany comes into effect in 2024. In Germany, Laws come into effect either on the date stated in the law itself or if not stated explicitly 14 days after the law was announced in the Bundesanzeiger.
Follow up to:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-germany-legalize-cannabis-befo?referrer=NickelChen)
|
2023-01-03T00:08:06
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:27:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N4PwSuA7jH9c2y7ucaG2
|
Will Germany experience negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters in 2023? (Recession in Germany)
|
Will Germany experience a recession in 2023?
I will resolve YES if the German economy, measured by price + calendar + seasonally adjusted GDP growth, experiences negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters in 2023.
I will use data from the official German statistics agency. See the (EDIT: second) line of the table here: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Volkswirtschaftliche-Gesamtrechnungen-Inlandsprodukt/Tabellen/bip-bubbles.html
"preisbereinigtes BIP" means price-adjusted GDP
If the website no longer exists at the beginning of 2024, I will find a suitable alternative data source.
|
2023-01-02T23:10:25
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-30T05:36:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gsizjfWsmEwpEDibZFBZ
|
Will the Canadian dollar be worth more than US$0.74 at the end of 2023?
|
Market will be resolved based on this page: Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe. At the time of writing, the midmarket rate is listed as 1 CAD = 0.737859 USD.
If the listed rate for January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD > 0.74 USD, this market will resolve to YES.
If the listed rate for January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD ≤ 0.74 USD, this market will resolve to NO.
If the XE chart is unavailable for any reason when resolving, I will use the result from a major search engine to resolve.
|
2023-01-02T20:59:50
|
2023-12-31T21:39:07
|
2023-12-31T21:39:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WInN0aSfMio9L2cKcEUG
|
Will the Canadian dollar be worth more than US$0.74 at the end of the first quarter of 2023?
|
Market will be resolved based on this page: Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe. At the time of writing, the midmarket rate is listed as 1 CAD = 0.737859 USD.
If the listed rate for April 1, 2023 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD > 0.74 USD, this market will resolve to YES.
If the listed rate for April 1, 2023 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD ≤ 0.74 USD, this market will resolve to NO.
If the XE chart is unavailable for any reason when resolving, I will use the result from a major search engine to resolve.
Close date updated to 2023-03-31 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-02T20:57:06
|
2023-03-31T23:59:00
|
2023-04-01T22:58:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HpzooykYfZR5vyldBgNP
|
During the 118th Congress, will the House hold a vote on removing the Speaker of the House?
|
This market will resolve YES if, during the 118th Congress (ending January 3, 2025), the House of Representatives holds a vote that would remove the Speaker of the House from office. The outcome of such a vote will not have any bearing on the resolution of this market, as long as the vote takes place. This vote takes the form of a "motion to vacate the chair"; see Wikipedia article.
Context: In the 117th Congress, only a party caucus or conference (i.e. House Democrats or House Republicans, acting by a majority) can force the House to hold a vote to remove the Speaker. See https://rollcall.com/2023/01/02/mccarthy-releases-house-rules-package-still-short-speaker-votes/. This rule is codified as clause 2(a)(3) of rule IX of the Standing Rules of the House.
The rules package released by House Republicans would lower that threshold to five Republican members. In particular, Section 3(c) of the rules package would provide that "During the One Hundred Eighteenth 3 Congress, clause 2(a)(3) of rule IX shall not apply to any 4 resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker that 5 is offered by a Member of the majority party caucus or 6 conference and has accumulated 4 cosponsors from such 7 party caucus or conference at the time it is offered."
|
2023-01-02T20:56:58
|
2023-10-03T15:38:16
|
2023-10-03T15:38:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YZ6uDWkJfhZ38BMSy2nB
|
Will Rep.-elect George Santos appear in court or in custody in Brazil (including through extradition) before the end of 2024?
|
Update Jun 1, 2023: George Santos's remote appearance in a Brazillian court, without being physically "in Brazil", will not count; this market will resolve NO if he doesn't physically appear by the end date of the market.
This market will resolve YES if prior to EOD December 31, 2024, according to reliable sources, Rep.-elect George Santos personally appears in court in Brazil or is otherwise in judicial or law enforcement custody in Brazil in relation to fraud charges approved in 2011 or any related charges. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
The New York Times reports that in 2011, a judge in Brazil approved fraud charges against now-Rep.-elect George Santos and ordered him to respond to those charges.
The New York Times further reports that "Brazilian law enforcement authorities intend to revive fraud charges against Mr. Santos, and will seek his formal response, prosecutors said on Monday." Furthermore, the Times reports that:
The next step for Brazilian prosecutors is to file a petition when the courts reopen at the end of the week requesting that Mr. Santos respond to the charges against him. A judge would then share the request, called a rogatory letter, with the federal Justice Ministry in Brazil, which would share it with the U.S. Department of Justice. Neither the Justice Department nor Brazilian authorities can compel Mr. Santos to respond at this point. But Mr. Santos must be officially notified in order for the case to proceed.
A criminal conviction, even for a felony, is not on its own an act that would disqualify a congressional member from holding office. The last time a member of Congress was removed from office for breaking the law was in 2002, when James A. Traficant Jr. was removed from the House after his conviction on felony racketeering and corruption charges.
If Mr. Santos does not present a defense in the Brazilian case, he will be tried in absentia. If found guilty, Mr. Santos could receive up to five years in prison, plus a fine.
|
2023-01-02T19:48:10
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T17:36:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bKCVj293EkQ0vCDo3CmC
|
Will Damar Hamlin play football again before the end of 2023?
|
Playing football for any team in any league would count. Practice would not count.
|
2023-01-02T19:07:39
|
2023-08-14T07:03:21
|
2023-08-14T07:03:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H9emVeEKVr9EHMckhM2i
|
Will the SEC approve a bitcoin ETF before Jan 20 2025?
|
See description here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/
|
2023-01-02T18:36:50
|
2024-01-10T15:49:29
|
2024-01-10T15:49:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ifZYHMeBTOB8CRJlhmsp
|
Will Twitter ban Destiny by the end of 2023?
|
Market closes midnight 1/01/24 or If https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal is banned or suspended for any length of time.
Vote, Yes if you believe Twitter will ban Destiny by the end of 2023.
Vote, No if you believe Twitter will not ban Destiny by the end of 2023.
Feel free to ask me any questions in the comment section.
Description formatting from Versuch.
|
2023-01-02T17:54:08
|
2023-12-31T22:01:00
|
2023-12-31T22:05:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UiIKuo4Pm0pVy2YVO2ad
|
Will CGP Grey create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-02T17:22:56
|
2023-04-02T07:34:36
|
2023-04-02T07:34:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X1T4cvkpfLLx32oMRztf
|
Will Destiny say the n word (soft a or hard r) on stream in 2023?
|
On any account.
|
2023-01-02T17:02:06
|
2023-08-30T20:17:15
|
2023-08-30T20:17:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p5t2hd4vIWNHnFgToAdp
|
Will Microsoft announce that it is acquiring any of Shopify, Netflix, Roku, Pinterest, Snap, Unity, Discord, Reddit, TikTok, or Adobe by February 2024?
|
If Microsoft announces they signed a definitive agreement to acquire any of these companies (or a significant subsidiary, like buying just Adobe Experience Solutions), this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-01-02T13:58:01
|
2024-01-31T18:54:00
|
2024-02-01T12:35:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YvE0c0SDdIfqYxLUpxbV
|
Will George Santos (R-NY) be expelled from Congress during his first term?
|
Resolves to YES if George Santos is expelled from the US House of Representatives during the 118th Congress (Jan 2023 - Jan 2025). Otherwise NO. If Santos resigns, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than being expelled, immediately resolves NO.
Context: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it. Each house of Congress can expel a member with a 2/3 majority vote. In addition, he is now facing a number of investigations for possible campaign finance fraud.
See https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/us/politics/george-santos-what-next.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress for context.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-george-santos-rny-resign-from)(https://manifold.markets/embed/lisamarsh/will-rep-george-santos-rny-remain-i)
|
2023-01-02T13:36:58
|
2023-12-01T08:24:07
|
2023-12-01T08:24:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7vPfUot46yyQ8lR8uJls
|
Will Jeremy Renner survive his recent snow-plow accident? (Marvel Hawkeye actor)
|
According to various sources, on Sunday, Jeremy Renner (who most famously played Clint Barton, aka Hawkeye, in the Marvel Cinematic Universe) was working on his land when he got into a "weather related accident". Reportedly, his plowing machine (a Snowcat) ran over his leg, causing heavy blood loss. A neighbour applied a tourniquet to his leg and he was flown to an area hospital, where he is now in "critical but stable condition".
Market resolves to YES if Jeremy Renner is still alive in 90 days, regardless of hospitalization, loss of limbs, or state of consciousness. Market resolves to NO otherwise.
Market aside, I think he's an amazing actor and am genuinely concerned for his condition.
|
2023-01-02T13:10:57
|
2023-04-03T00:59:00
|
2023-04-07T16:39:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ohl4qJNxNY4e6Y2p6bXf
|
Will Destiny's twitter account @TheOmniLiberal be banned before April 2023?
|
Will Destiny be banned on Twitter before April 2023?
Market closes midnight 3/31/23
or
If https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal is banned
Yes if you believe Destiny's Twitter account will be banned before April 2023
No if you believe Destiny will not be banned on Twitter before April 2023
I won't be participating in this market.
If you have any clarifying questions, post them below in the comments!
Close date updated to 2023-03-31 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-02T12:30:32
|
2023-03-31T20:59:00
|
2023-04-01T04:40:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9MMjOBcJEVkF4tQI0Hkg
|
Will the Euro be worth more than the US Dollar at the end of 2023?
|
Reference:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD
If the value shown at the link above is bigger than 1, this market resolves to YES.
|
2023-01-02T11:47:16
|
2023-12-30T12:48:25
|
2023-12-30T12:48:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tn3RxUi77WYyFnNtUFsU
|
Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2023?
|
Some people are really optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Engineering breakeven basically means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor
|
2023-01-02T11:46:28
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T08:44:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pzaUjPr2p2MSU5IhV0GZ
|
Will Destiny reach 1M subscribers (on YT) this year?
|
Will the YouTube streamer Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (known online as "Destiny") reach the One Million subscriber milestone on YouTube this year (2023)?
Close date updated to 2023-01-16 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-01-25 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-02T11:20:59
|
2023-12-31T05:29:00
|
2023-12-31T22:00:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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