id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-2xtBQyhcv1JA0aLILbvx | Who will Destiny publicly speak to next? XQC (Yes) or Nick Fuentes (No) | Must be on stream / video | 2023-01-02T10:15:18 | 2023-07-11T00:42:17 | 2023-07-11T00:42:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lctFQLzPprO7KcMdc4hf | Will EU natural gas prices top $5 per 1 cubic meter for any month in 2023? (Medvedev's Predictions 1b) | Resolves YES if EU natural gas prices reach at least $141.64 USD per Million Metric British Thermal Unit (MMBtu) for any month in 2023 according to data at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNGASEUUSDM. Otherwise NO.
$141.64 comes from multiplying $5 USD per 1 cubic meter by 28.3278 m3 per MMBtu (see conversion facto... | 2023-01-02T10:14:28 | 2024-01-04T19:30:37 | 2024-01-04T19:30:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6B9uGk7ghkGk6uMEQfym | Will the US economy grow in 2023? | Real GDP, according to BEA advance estimate in Jan '24.
Closing date/time is estimated, and will update to reflect the scheduled data release time.
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule | 2023-01-02T07:01:47 | 2024-01-25T07:00:00 | 2024-01-28T04:20:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q5wD644Y5oll7SyOtXAk | Will Carlos Alcaraz be World No. 1 in Tennis at the end of 2023 | The young player from Spain currently leads the ATP ranking and is a big favourite for the upcoming events | 2023-01-02T05:00:07 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T19:09:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JamkKr25gg8CWpagH6OH | Will Huobi be insolvent by the end of 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Huobi withdrawals for USDC, BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that Huobi is insolvent by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “Yes.”
Ot... | 2023-01-02T04:17:46 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:46:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gRLExASkO8av13ixklzd | Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Coinbase withdrawals for USDC, BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that Coinbase is insolvent by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “Yes.... | 2023-01-02T03:20:28 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:46:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wWI6l5toTmFHhko2S8uv | Will President Biden declare a new National Emergency by the end of 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31 2023, 12 AM ET, President Joe Biden declares a new National Emergency.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Under The National Emergencies Act of 1974 (enacted September 14, 1976, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 1601–1651), the President of the United States ... | 2023-01-02T03:14:26 | 2023-12-03T04:54:26 | 2023-12-03T04:54:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sRb2bldlZVQ9sasJU8Qi | War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 150,000 troops by the end of 2023? | Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.
This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2024 - or the nearest available date.
https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/
[image] | 2023-01-02T03:10:16 | 2023-07-10T03:11:27 | 2023-07-10T03:11:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wLTDYeuMqBhmnbiLKgso | War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 200,000 troops by the end of 2023? | Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.
This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2024 - or the nearest available date.
https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/
[image] | 2023-01-02T03:08:40 | 2023-07-10T03:11:43 | 2023-07-10T03:11:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rMtPvTwJdzCE8rAvP2OT | Will there be more deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in 2023 than in 2022? | I will use data from Imazon https://imazon.org.br/ to resolve this market.
| 2023-01-02T02:45:57 | 2024-01-24T08:33:37 | 2024-01-24T08:33:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9HNjb25WjVc3k3JLCKOY | Will Sergey Lavrov still be the Foreign Minister of Russia on January 1, 2024? | [image]related:
[markets] | 2023-01-02T02:45:30 | 2024-01-01T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:59:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KL4PjyYxd3fJB02x3AlK | Will Crypto.com be insolvent by the end of 2023? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Crypto.com withdrawals for USDC, BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that Crypto.com is insolvent by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “... | 2023-01-02T02:26:05 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:56:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NAvcSQ1pzzMaCBKBIUqX | Republicans control Congress after 2024 | Resolves YES if Republicans control both the Senate and House of Representatives after the 2024 elections. | 2023-01-02T00:53:55 | 2024-11-13T20:07:21 | 2024-11-13T20:07:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pCcUHO3puq7jly5qKaMi | Republican party trifecta in 2024 | Resolves YES if Republicans control the Presidency and both the Senate and House of Representatives after the 2024 elections. | 2023-01-02T00:51:00 | 2024-11-16T12:24:13 | 2024-11-16T12:24:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-530eh155CPQza6Aoizn2 | Democratic party trifecta in 2024 | Resolves YES if Democrats control the Presidency and both the Senate and House of Representatives after the 2024 elections. | 2023-01-02T00:50:30 | 2024-11-06T10:41:57 | 2024-11-06T10:41:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qhq1L3xNJWMeUIWFvk0H | In 2023, Israel will be openly involved in a military conflict with Iran. | https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/01/ukraine-taiwan-north-korea-iran-palestine-flashpoints-2023
An article in The Guardian suggests potential flashpoints in 2023, including Iran and Israel.
"Iran is near boiling point, too, owing to sweeping anti-government protests – and because nuclear talks with t... | 2023-01-02T00:01:54 | 2023-12-31T15:00:00 | 2024-01-01T16:14:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TsbJKnwgiTxa9m2Nt5MI | Will the Speaker of the House (Kevin McCarthy) serve for a full two years? | Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House to be elected [EDIT: Kevin McCarthy] is still in office at the end of their two-year term (January 3, 2025), and NO if they leave office for any reason (being ousted, resigning, dying, etc).
Background: Kevin McCarthy, front-runner to become the next Speaker (PredictIt cur... | 2023-01-01T20:07:19 | 2023-10-03T16:05:19 | 2023-10-03T16:05:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f96Y91sN0blSoxjZroex | Will GPT-4 be the most searched model of 2023? | [image] | 2023-01-01T17:25:14 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:43:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aFHCm6eRXqlLZkQQb1Ho | Will Destiny re-dye his blue hair [YES] or chop it of [NO] (neither will result in N/A) | Close date updated to 2023-06-30 11:59 pm | 2023-01-01T17:13:56 | 2023-08-20T11:52:58 | 2023-08-20T11:52:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CRYAt4gkj21vzNHsJPQ2 | Will Destiny start (host or co-host) a new in-person podcast in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-01T17:04:24 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:47:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S0CanijYUOEkxI98kuq7 | Will Destiny appear on the Scuffed Podcast in 2023? | There were some rumblings of Train doing a special YouTube episode of Scuffed so that Destiny could be a guest. This never came to fruition.
In 2023, do you think that Destiny will appear on the Scuffed Podcast? | 2023-01-01T16:41:37 | 2023-12-15T06:39:01 | 2023-12-15T06:39:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JJhOlaRCBnyehcszL2DF | Will Destiny be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | Resolves July 14, 2024 - after democratic primaries.
[image]Serious poll, please discuss below. | 2023-01-01T14:23:21 | 2024-07-14T04:00:00 | 2025-01-22T13:16:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7psmDolVjRNbUESSC8UI | Will Xi Jinping still be president of China and Vladimir Putin president of Russia on 1 January 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-01T13:30:39 | 2024-01-01T15:59:00 | 2024-01-13T09:00:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v4D8scRf07YSNlsTXrOS | Will Destiny launch his Media Company in 2023? | Resolves yes if Destiny announces the creation of the company/website and makes it available to the public.
Destiny first talks about it here: https://youtu.be/251i-5-s19k?t=11582 https://youtu.be/251i-5-s19k?t=16477 | 2023-01-01T13:15:14 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:39:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vcn9J4PCOwmTsPHmihau | Will Trevor Bauer start a game in the major leagues this year? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-01T12:52:30 | 2023-12-11T15:38:45 | 2023-12-11T15:38:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EFykBsNxLzNZiIsL9Tdw | Will Destiny Stream on a platform other than Youtube in 2023? (Twitch,Rumble,etc) | Resolves yes if Destiny creates an offical account on another platform and streams for at least 30 mins. Guest appearences do not count.
[image] | 2023-01-01T12:25:47 | 2023-03-20T10:15:55 | 2023-03-20T10:15:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4d3JSedo0iEyQOAOysSs | Will Destiny have a 20k viewer stream in Q1 2023 | Resolves Yes if Destiny has 20k viewers on his own stream by March 31st.
Edit: If Destiny does end up multi streaming to Facebook/Rumble this market will include the viewers from all platforms.
[image] | 2023-01-01T12:13:49 | 2023-03-20T14:55:36 | 2023-03-20T14:55:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ik5vhV5CcNYEI4zs1ogD | Will Ethereum go above $3k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | Full 24hours on Coingecko
Grouped Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-reach-10k-before-it-re/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le) | 2023-01-01T12:13:39 | 2023-12-31T08:41:34 | 2023-12-31T08:41:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd | Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024? | If Aella and Destiny become romantically involved for any length of time before the end of 2024, this market resolves YES, even if they later stop being involved.
For the purposes of this market, "romantic involvement" constitutes voluntary physical intimacy (sex, kissing, hand-holding, etc.) along with mutual express... | 2023-01-01T12:09:27 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-02T11:56:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lAnIrmABP54UfCM9193f | Will Ethereum go below $700 for at least 24 hours before 2024? | Full 24hours on Coingecko
Grouped Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-reach-10k-before-it-re/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le) | 2023-01-01T11:31:03 | 2023-12-31T10:21:07 | 2023-12-31T10:21:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GpTELUJ5sWZfYTBRUWAM | Will Bitcoin reach $12k before it reaches $30k? | Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window above/below these values
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le) | 2023-01-01T11:28:42 | 2023-04-11T07:07:24 | 2023-04-11T07:07:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zLADnd3CV6otjU0IW5Or | Will the S&P 500 close above 4000 at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-01T10:33:07 | 2023-12-29T13:38:30 | 2023-12-29T13:38:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ubZXNUCEuYSUEe8UIQJo | Will there be official confirmation of a Mistborn movie in 2023 | Resolves yes if either Brandon Sanderson dragonsteel or a production company announce that they have signed for a mistborn movie | 2023-01-01T10:10:23 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-02T05:46:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-14AfHIg24oAaVAR6vuh3 | Will Sequoia markdown the value of their Twitter stake by more than half? | Any fund that takes institutional money must report audited valuations of every company in their portfolio on a quarterly basis. This market resolves YES if Sequoia writes down the the value of their stake by more than 50-percent.
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm | 2023-01-01T10:03:05 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:20:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iHlUrH04wMnAC02aQXXc | "2023 will make 2022 look like a sleepy year for AI advancement & adoption" | Update 2024-Feb-16
I never heard back from Brockman, and the price spent >5 days >=90%. Resolved YES.
Update 2024-Jan-08:
No response from Brockman. So we fall back to the Keynesian Beauty Contest. Starting Jan 8th, I will wait until the price stabilizes for 5+ days at <=10% (resolves "No"), OR spending 5+ days a... | 2023-01-01T09:54:09 | 2024-02-16T08:59:39 | 2024-02-16T08:59:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NyH59Kahy8mifcrweJhR | Will Andor Season 2 release in 2024 as expected? | Resolved yes if the first episode is available to watch on Disney + in the US before the end of 2024. It is a highly anticipated second season of Star Wars tv. And the first season is quite good. | 2023-01-01T09:49:32 | 2024-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-01-02T15:56:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WtPKQV6WTa3VvJullOhB | Will there be a new Hello Internet episode in 2023? | Hello Internet is a podcast that has not posted an episode since February, 2020. The only word on the state of the podcast has come from one of the hosts who referred to the hiatus as a "break" (https://www.bradyharanblog.com/hello-internet). However, there has been no indication that there are any plans to resume the ... | 2023-01-01T08:53:01 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2023-12-31T23:38:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xX5DiWMPpibaVMdV08MJ | Will Destiny get unbanned on twitch before Jan 1 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-01-01T07:11:07 | 2023-12-31T11:59:54 | 2023-12-31T11:59:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o39zjZWJ0JS3exGbyCQW | Will Destiny get unbanned on twitch before April? | Resolves YES if before April 2023, https://www.twitch.tv/destiny is unbanned. Otherwise NO.
Only this account will qualify here - if Destiny creates a different account, that will not count for this question, regardless of whether it is ban evasion or allowed by Twitch.
If the account is unbanned and then re-banned, ... | 2023-01-01T06:17:54 | 2023-04-01T05:19:34 | 2023-04-01T05:19:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fEynd6HX5JURNRDwqO89 | Will the word "stablecoin" be added to the Merriam-Webster online dictionary in 2023 | https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stablecoin currently says: The word you've entered isn't in the dictionary | 2023-01-01T04:30:47 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2023-12-31T19:20:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mTMjwb8CNxte6xGnyYif | Will the Barbie (2023) movie be a box office success within one week of its theatrical release? | The market resolves to YES if the Barbie movie grosses >=2.5 times its cost (production + marketing) in total box office earnings worldwide a week after its theatrical release; else, it resolves to NO.
As of writing, the movie's production budget is $100 million but its marketing budget undisclosed.
Jan 2, 2:14am: Wi... | 2023-01-01T03:45:41 | 2023-07-27T09:00:00 | 2023-09-09T13:55:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BZqAOzHBZwCd2AWsjBnY | EUR/CHF >= 1, will the euro be equal to or higher than the Swiss franc by the end of 2023? | Using https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=EUR&To=CHF or the first exchange plateforme suggested on Google.com search, if xe.com is unavailable, by the end of 31-12-2023.
In words, we ask if, by the end of the year, you must pay one or more Swiss francs to get 1 euro. | 2023-01-01T02:25:11 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:34:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zXL9g6jXNKkpnSBoxrTo | Will Binance USD depeg even slightly in 2023? | This resolves YES if the closing price for Binance USD listed here is ever less than $0.9900 in USD for any date in 2023. | 2022-12-31T22:10:08 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:25:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sm94gcvZEUXvihYrG5vN | Will Tether depeg even slightly in 2023? | This resolves YES if the closing price for Tether listed here is ever less than $0.9900 in USD for any date in 2023. | 2022-12-31T22:08:55 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:25:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jwEH9AldiAhk4iFh9e9y | Will Hunter Biden be criminally indicted in 2023? | Felony's and higher, State or Federal. | 2022-12-31T21:30:10 | 2023-10-05T05:37:58 | 2023-10-05T05:37:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP | Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023? | Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from G... | 2022-12-31T20:35:23 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-07-01T10:56:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CtIkjtoAUf2DKUB3J6D7 | Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023? | By new I mean put into widespread commercial use during 2023. The effect will need to impact the whole sector of an economy (e.g. car manufacturing, online advertising, education) in a way that is noticeable in at least one key economic measure (growth, productivity, employment, profits, etc.).
Based on the US econom... | 2022-12-31T18:14:27 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:31:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-goNXbGyqTE5qj4Xp48yH | Will SBF plead guilty to all charges? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-31T13:34:54 | 2023-11-07T08:21:50 | 2023-11-07T08:21:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m5VihUBViJTDoZCJcd9E | Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-31T13:27:43 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-92IUCFFB9PGb4aOMTCHq | Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-31T13:27:21 | 2023-12-31T11:36:17 | 2023-12-31T11:36:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2e2C9XL88Medc9EL18mL | Will Destiny start playing Minecraft again in 2023? | Market closes 31st of december 2023.
Will steven grind minecraft again in 2023?
| 2022-12-31T13:03:41 | 2023-12-31T13:03:00 | 2023-12-31T13:42:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1SmjLoF1tmKlG5VTGvrH | Will the Florida Panthers win the 2023 NHL playoffs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-31T11:08:27 | 2023-06-18T10:17:23 | 2023-06-18T10:17:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ykqeYPawGl3JsKUBIoUN | Will a Covid vaccine be pulled off the market due to safety concerns in 2023? | Resolves to YES if a vaccine that was widely administered (more than 1 million doses) is pulled off the market due to safety concerns in at least one OECD country, at any point in 2023.
Otherwise resolves to NO.
The term "pulled off the market" does not apply if rollout is only temporarily paused for 30 days or less.... | 2022-12-31T10:30:32 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T00:38:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JdMwAwqc9eWgOHI20432 | Will the S&P 500 index close both 10% above and 10% below 2022 closing price in 2023? | 2022 closing price was 3839.5
Market resolves to YES if at any point in 2023 the index closes above 4223.45 (+10%) on any day in 2023 AND the index closes below 3455.55 (-10%) on any day in 2023. | 2022-12-30T21:52:34 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T18:35:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ah821nQJkEVY79YLJQfa | Will US stocks outperform long term bonds in 2023? | Will the $VTI outperform the $BND in 2023? (Inclusive of stock splits and dividends)
[markets] | 2022-12-30T20:48:04 | 2023-12-29T13:19:08 | 2023-12-29T13:19:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OoPouYX3YeK5vhBGv6dh | Will GPT-4 exceed chatGPT interest? (2023) | [image] | 2022-12-30T20:01:15 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:38:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZXUWOojKFeOxvmlEvtpS | Will SBF plead guilty before trial? | Before the first day of trial | 2022-12-30T19:58:52 | 2023-10-08T10:02:51 | 2023-10-08T10:02:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0ywISwPxuAclJjuZOhHD | Will a world leader be assassinated by the end of 2023? | Defining a "world leader" as the president/prime minister/highest-ranking official of a country, beginning January 1st 2023 and ending if someone is assassinated, or a world leader that is in power as of January 1st 2023 but later steps down. Assassination is either definitive (e.g. someone is shot on live TV) or a sit... | 2022-12-30T19:12:32 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:54:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-awEhNhbLGklkz3JzPlkr | Will the US impose broad sanctions against any new countries in 2023? | Dec 30, 11:38pm: Will the US institute broad sanctions against any new countries in 2023? → Will the US impose broad sanctions against any new countries in 2023? | 2022-12-30T18:34:58 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:04:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BUDHdAVrVRw8BMKCDQ7D | Will Destiny lift sanctions on MrGirl at any time in 2023? | Resolves YES if any of the following occur:
Destiny announces the sanctions are lifted, or that he "doesn't care" if people talk to MrGirl
Does not count if he says it while in a conversation with a streamer who recently broke sanctions (see below)
Destiny has a conversation with MORE THAN ONE other streamer within... | 2022-12-30T18:14:45 | 2023-04-06T05:24:07 | 2023-04-06T05:24:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QzhYXA2995Exs7cPOa0i | Will the Kerch Strait Bridge (bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2023? | Resolves to YES if at any time in 2023 the Kerch Strait Bridge ends up in a state in which it cannot be used for more than two days. Planned maintenance does not count. | 2022-12-30T18:08:30 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T13:12:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vVOCPYBx9ikH10Es64xV | Will Paul Graham create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if Paul Graham creates a market by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not.
[image] | 2022-12-30T17:27:24 | 2023-12-31T20:23:40 | 2023-12-31T20:23:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J5ZduK47ghtuKDDaPRFE | Will Xi Jinping meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2023? | Resolves YES if Xi Jinping meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2023 anywhere in the world. Resolves NO if not.
[image]Dec 30, 8:21pm: Will Xi Jinping meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2022? → Will Xi Jinping meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2023? | 2022-12-30T17:21:34 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:59:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Cj6zJH4pHAYL5Azc4mmP | Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if confirmed that Lex Fridman created a market on Manifold by end of 2023. | 2022-12-30T17:18:43 | 2023-06-08T09:32:06 | 2023-06-08T09:32:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CGbzHM1Cherst3afDkca | Will mainland North America experience a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in 2023? | North America is from the Colombian/Panamanian border, 50 miles or less off the coast. Hawai'i and other islands do not count for the purpose of this market. | 2022-12-30T17:16:56 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:22:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xWQBiyvpZ9lvSvUBSqzR | Will a notable Republican politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges in 2023? | Resolves YES if any current or former Republican governors or members of congress are indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges in 2023. Otherwise NO.
This question is paired with:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-a-democratic-politician-be-ind) | 2022-12-30T13:38:36 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:16:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yE2HK8BolYxZrYwMeHhd | Will the US approve an arms sales to Taiwan totaling greater than $5Bln during 2023? | Resolves YES once more than >$5Bln worth of arms sales are approved by the Biden administration during 2023. Resolves NO if by the end of 2023 total arms sales by the US to Taiwan <$5Bln. | 2022-12-30T12:44:24 | 2023-12-31T20:43:36 | 2023-12-31T20:43:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PMQOLQbYvGq1GalV2alz | Will the US approve an arms sales to Taiwan totaling greater than $2Bln during 2023? | Resolves YES once more than >$2Bln worth of arms sales are approved by the Biden administration during 2023. Resolves NO if by the end of 2023 total arms sales by the US to Taiwan <$2Bln. | 2022-12-30T12:44:00 | 2023-12-25T08:47:21 | 2023-12-25T08:47:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dFkjPcLYnCzld7kkSr9U | Will Elon Musk's twitter account be hacked in 2023? | For this to resolve YES the hackers must takeover the account and either post as Musk or modify the profile image/bio into a parody of the real life Musk or someone else
[image]. | 2022-12-30T12:27:19 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:00:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vMRe9DDQ4udIFm6j08ob | Will any Twitter account with at least 100,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023? | In order to be "discovered" to be an AI, it must not have been publically known prior to the discovery.
Some minor human curating is fine, as is a human tweet here and there, as long as the majority of its engagement-genererating content was AI-generated.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/by-the-en... | 2022-12-30T12:18:43 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T22:39:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kXGpgdeDvY4QVKUTDmwE | Will Destiny livestream on cozy.tv before April? | Resolves to YES if he goes live on cozy.tv/destiny before April 1st.
Context: https://youtu.be/5ZK8A7cfGK8?t=13409 -> mirror
| 2022-12-30T11:21:50 | 2023-03-31T20:59:00 | 2023-04-01T00:08:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TKbeoYzC6RejUGkIYqLe | Will Destiny livestream on cozy.tv in 2023? | Resolves to YES if he goes live on cozy.tv/destiny before 2023 ends.
Context: https://youtu.be/5ZK8A7cfGK8?t=13409 -> mirror | 2022-12-30T11:08:22 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T19:07:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b8mNrTfGxYUXEq7tXrD6 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried's father or mother be indicted by 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-30T06:41:53 | 2025-01-01T11:00:00 | 2025-01-01T12:04:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rDDcRKHfs7FYinPum1vw | Will Caltrain electrification finish on schedule in 2024? | Currently Caltrain electric trains are anticipated to start service in late-2024. The original timeline projected a 2021 opening, which was subsequently postponed to 2022, and now 2024. Resolves YES if I can ride an electric train on regular passenger service by December 31, 2024.
Edited to add context.
Changed close... | 2022-12-30T05:21:44 | 2024-12-23T08:12:30 | 2024-12-23T08:12:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P2pLhD7byDbaPJGIYSay | Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023? | In order to be "discovered" to be an AI, it must not have been publically known prior to the discovery.
Some minor human curating is fine, as is a human tweet here and there, as long as the majority of its engagement-genererating content was AI-generated.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-any-... | 2022-12-30T02:53:02 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T22:39:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S2nlPtWWBMT3wDy6L56Y | Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist? | Destiny has issued a cease and desist to Keffals demanding that she retracts defamatory statements she made. He has confirmed that Keffals and seen it, and he is still awaiting her response.
Will Keffals fulfill the requirements of the cease and desist that she received from Destiny's legal team?
This market will res... | 2022-12-29T21:01:24 | 2023-06-30T22:01:00 | 2023-07-07T08:47:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GrQn5yCsBdiH6sxR8Y3X | Will Greg Abbott seek the GOP nomination for president in 2024? | Resolves YES if he announces and files necessary paperwork with the FEC. | 2022-12-29T19:02:37 | 2024-01-17T19:16:29 | 2024-01-17T19:16:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MMM1XwFpJoHrTAv80jkT | Will the LDS Church (Mormons) get a new prophet (president of the church) before Dec 2023? | The current prophet and president of the church is Russell M Nelson, at age 98.
Resolve to Yes if the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints get a new prophet (president of the church) before Dec 2023 | 2022-12-29T16:32:01 | 2023-12-01T20:59:00 | 2023-12-03T15:16:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7bGmK0Gd5R7vhDCsE2KD | Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023? | Recession =2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Not going to entertain any nonsense about that not being the definition anymore.
Dec 31, 3:17am: Will there be a recession in 2023? → Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023? | 2022-12-29T15:34:34 | 2023-12-30T17:11:35 | 2023-12-30T17:11:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WKOeAYcsHB6olbfYvvRP | Will California wildfire acreage be greater in 2023 than in 2022 | Stats: https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/
2022 was 363,917 acres (provisional)
Authoritative number is whatever is most up to date from CalFire at close (using the YTD cumulative state and fed numbers as above)
Update: I'll resolve the market after the finalized 2023 numbers come out (which is some time after ma... | 2022-12-29T13:03:28 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-06T14:57:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dOIDXce1UxKXwR2oQbro | Will Liren Ding surpass Magnus Carlsen to be the highest rating FIDE player at any point in 2023? | Resolution according to FIDE offical ratings
https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml
Resolve to Yes if Liren Ding surpasses Magnus Carlsen to be the highest rating FIDE player at any point in 2023, and someone included a screenshot of it as proof in the comments.
Liren Ding has to both surpasses Magnus Carlsen and ... | 2022-12-29T13:00:11 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:25:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u8ZwNskuFZlwKaKgIKwl | Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2024? | Resolution according to FIDE offical ratings
https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml
| 2022-12-29T12:56:09 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uPT3rWwDPyqEbgGBaIkd | Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023? | Romanian police did an unannounced armed raid on Tate's home today,
allegedly connected to kidnapping of two underage girls.
Will criminal charges follow?
Clarificarion: I will resolve to YES if criminal charges are filed in any court, not strictly Romania,
as long as the charges are directly based on the events of... | 2022-12-29T12:05:15 | 2023-04-30T23:59:00 | 2023-05-07T18:54:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-keb9F4XSUB9ByBP6tRGQ | Will Nintendo announce a new console by the end of 2023? | This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch. The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced, or if there are no console announcements. | 2022-12-29T11:45:36 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:53:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Si1DxLpnQfU4JDEBcmtn | Will Trump ever run as an independent in the 2024 presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-29T11:13:09 | 2024-11-06T20:22:35 | 2024-11-06T20:22:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z0KyjKjJ9AlGe8EQ6UyX | Will the Atlanta Hawks make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Atlanta Hawks win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr. | 2022-12-29T11:00:11 | 2023-04-28T01:11:43 | 2023-04-28T01:11:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-btwMAe5pMa5RRT4PWxMm | Will the Apple Watch Series 9 measure blood glucose? | To clarify, the Watch itself needs to have the measuring capability (either in the "box" or the band). An external device making the measurement that connects to the Apple Watch does not count. | 2022-12-29T09:43:12 | 2023-09-13T10:30:08 | 2023-09-13T10:30:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JL2l4t6xwgwCsVoB5dxY | Will the Apple Watch series 9 measure blood pressure? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-29T09:42:13 | 2023-09-13T10:31:28 | 2023-09-13T10:31:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OIju8TVhaGh9RPY9SA2E | Will the iPhone 15 starting price be greater than $799? | Resolves YES if the base model iPhone 15 costs more than $799, and resolves NO if the base model costs less than or equal to $799. | 2022-12-29T08:45:32 | 2023-09-29T17:00:00 | 2023-10-01T09:40:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GU2d3JOZNYMePWDQWkJg | Will Donald trump be indicted, but flee before arrest? [2023 limit] | At the time of opening this market: MM users give a 75% chance of indictment in 2023 but only a 39% chance of arrest in 2023 or 2024.
Both markets have more than 500 trades on and are relatively stable. Arrest follows indictment, so either people are unsure of the terms, OR they are ascribing a 36% chance of DT being... | 2022-12-29T07:18:15 | 2023-04-05T05:29:21 | 2023-04-05T05:29:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HaWSjHQxxVF16LlW5GWR | Will at least 10 Conservative MPs publicly call for Rishi Sunak to resign in 2023 (conditional on no general election taking place)? | Resolves to YES if at least 10 Conservative Members of Parliament (in the UK) publicly call for Rishi Sunak to resign as leader of the Conservative Party and/or as Prime Minister in 2023. This must be a call for an immediate or fairly immediate resignation; saying that they do not want Sunak to fight the next general e... | 2022-12-29T02:50:40 | 2024-01-03T01:59:01 | 2024-01-03T01:59:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iiHxkltEd2s92kylTdEP | Does SBF get a sentence of 20 years or more? | Update: I just noticed the trial was split. To be clear, this is meant to include both.
Also to be clear, house arrest doesn't count. | 2022-12-28T18:22:05 | 2024-03-28T16:52:24 | 2024-03-28T16:52:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7FRNxEjhUKQyvcs9EpDf | Will Rep.-elect George Santos be charged with a crime by the end of 2024? | This market will resolve YES if George Santos is charged with any crime (felony or misdemeanor), as determined through official government sources or other reliable sources, anywhere in the United States by December 31, 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
Background: After being elected to the US House of Representat... | 2022-12-28T16:17:32 | 2023-05-10T08:42:22 | 2023-05-10T08:42:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GjbV0SxPzwCj4YTGx3Fo | Will Lex Fridman interview Elon by 2024? | Related:
[markets] | 2022-12-28T15:21:43 | 2023-11-09T11:34:54 | 2023-11-09T11:34:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JjvfXr6ephkckOoA8JFK | Will Destiny still have blue hair after 31 mars 2023? | Resolves Yes if his hair is still blue (even if its faded)
Resolves No if his hair is back to normal or another color | 2022-12-28T12:11:06 | 2023-03-31T15:00:00 | 2023-03-31T19:09:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KYyIsLO5he2Fppbkqkba | Will another cloud-based password management service with >1 million users be hacked and have user password vaults stolen in 2023? | Based off of the LastPass breach and the theft of encrypted user password vaults, what is the likelyhood that another (edit 2023-01-17: non-LastPass) major password management service will be similarly breached in 2023?
https://blog.lastpass.com/2022/12/notice-of-recent-security-incident/
Criteria:
Service must be a... | 2022-12-28T10:24:25 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-05-05T18:12:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P9HauiYp1BS5orPEa0as | Will there be significant Right-Wing riots between Presidential Election Day 2024 (11/05/24) and inauguration (01/20/25)? | Significant riots will be approximately 500 participants in more than 2 major US cities. "Right-wing" will be determined by prominent useage of right wing branding/iconography. A riot is a situation in which people in a crowd are engaging in violence and/or destruction in the streets or another public space. | 2022-12-28T09:21:07 | 2025-01-19T15:59:00 | 2025-01-19T16:01:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bIxA63KjxWrWiga6eUmK | Will Joe Biden Publicly Refer to a Specific AI Model While President? | "Publicly refer to" means in recorded speech (so not a written press release/statement likely written by someone else), but it need not be part of a formal address (i.e. bringing it up in response to a reporter's question or at a campaign event is sufficient to resolve yes).
Examples of specific AI models: "ChatGPT,"... | 2022-12-28T05:06:25 | 2025-01-21T22:09:39 | 2025-01-31T16:17:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xZAZGWRxpC5dpCpYPUnu | Will there be a US Government shutdown during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-27T23:13:02 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:12:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gnYAPiIy5oPySEe7V0Ac | Will Mohammed bin Salman become the King of Saudi Arabia during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-27T23:11:44 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:19:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
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