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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-2xtBQyhcv1JA0aLILbvx
|
Who will Destiny publicly speak to next? XQC (Yes) or Nick Fuentes (No)
|
Must be on stream / video
|
2023-01-02T10:15:18
|
2023-07-11T00:42:17
|
2023-07-11T00:42:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lctFQLzPprO7KcMdc4hf
|
Will EU natural gas prices top $5 per 1 cubic meter for any month in 2023? (Medvedev's Predictions 1b)
|
Resolves YES if EU natural gas prices reach at least $141.64 USD per Million Metric British Thermal Unit (MMBtu) for any month in 2023 according to data at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNGASEUUSDM. Otherwise NO.
$141.64 comes from multiplying $5 USD per 1 cubic meter by 28.3278 m3 per MMBtu (see conversion factors here).
(I hope I got the math right here, let me know if I made any errors.)
For reference, the most recent data point is $20.80 per MMBtu for October 2022.
Note that this data source provides monthly average prices across the EU, which might not be exactly what Medvedev meant, but that's what happens when one writes unclear predictions!
Context: Prediction for 2023 made by Dmitry Medvedev:
[tweet]
|
2023-01-02T10:14:28
|
2024-01-04T19:30:37
|
2024-01-04T19:30:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6B9uGk7ghkGk6uMEQfym
|
Will the US economy grow in 2023?
|
Real GDP, according to BEA advance estimate in Jan '24.
Closing date/time is estimated, and will update to reflect the scheduled data release time.
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
|
2023-01-02T07:01:47
|
2024-01-25T07:00:00
|
2024-01-28T04:20:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q5wD644Y5oll7SyOtXAk
|
Will Carlos Alcaraz be World No. 1 in Tennis at the end of 2023
|
The young player from Spain currently leads the ATP ranking and is a big favourite for the upcoming events
|
2023-01-02T05:00:07
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T19:09:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JamkKr25gg8CWpagH6OH
|
Will Huobi be insolvent by the end of 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Huobi withdrawals for USDC, BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that Huobi is insolvent by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “Yes.”
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Huobi withdrawals being suspended for a majority of users means that a majority users are unable to withdraw their USDC, BTC and/or ETH, from Huobi.
If Huobi suspends withdrawals on a day in the last week of December (e.g Huobi halts token withdrawals on December 30, 2023, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 7 full days pass, resulting in a "No" resolution; 2) 7 full days pass (Dec 30 - Jan 6, 2024, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to official information released by Huobi, the leadership of Huobi, and/or official representatives of Huobi (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2023-01-02T04:17:46
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T10:46:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gRLExASkO8av13ixklzd
|
Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Coinbase withdrawals for USDC, BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that Coinbase is insolvent by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “Yes.”
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Coinbase withdrawals being suspended for a majority of users means that a majority users are unable to withdraw their USDC, BTC and/or ETH, from Coinbase.
If Coinbase suspends withdrawals on a day in the last week of December (e.g Coinbase halts token withdrawals on December 30, 2023, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 7 full days pass, resulting in a "No" resolution; 2) 7 full days pass (Dec 30 - Jan 6, 2024, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to official information released by Coinbase, the leadership of Coinbase, and/or official representatives of Coinbase (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:59 am
Jan 2, 12:20pm: Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2022? → Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2023?
|
2023-01-02T03:20:28
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T10:46:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wWI6l5toTmFHhko2S8uv
|
Will President Biden declare a new National Emergency by the end of 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31 2023, 12 AM ET, President Joe Biden declares a new National Emergency.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Under The National Emergencies Act of 1974 (enacted September 14, 1976, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 1601–1651), the President of the United States is empowered to activate special powers during a crisis. Congress has defined those statutory emergency powers, available to the President upon the declaration of an emergency (so called "National Emergency"). Congress also can terminate an emergency declaration with a joint resolution enacted into law.
Please note, for this market to resolve to "Yes" the national emergency declaration must be official, issued under authority of the National Emergencies Act by the Executive Office of the President. Any public announcement by President Biden without an official declaration will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". A continuation of any existing National Emergencies will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". An executive emergency order which is not subject to the provisions of the National Emergencies Act will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Register of official documents published by the Executive Office of the President (https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/executive-office-of-the-president), however other official government sources may be used.
|
2023-01-02T03:14:26
|
2023-12-03T04:54:26
|
2023-12-03T04:54:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sRb2bldlZVQ9sasJU8Qi
|
War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 150,000 troops by the end of 2023?
|
Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.
This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2024 - or the nearest available date.
https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/
[image]
|
2023-01-02T03:10:16
|
2023-07-10T03:11:27
|
2023-07-10T03:11:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wLTDYeuMqBhmnbiLKgso
|
War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 200,000 troops by the end of 2023?
|
Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.
This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2024 - or the nearest available date.
https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/
[image]
|
2023-01-02T03:08:40
|
2023-07-10T03:11:43
|
2023-07-10T03:11:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rMtPvTwJdzCE8rAvP2OT
|
Will there be more deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in 2023 than in 2022?
|
I will use data from Imazon https://imazon.org.br/ to resolve this market.
|
2023-01-02T02:45:57
|
2024-01-24T08:33:37
|
2024-01-24T08:33:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9HNjb25WjVc3k3JLCKOY
|
Will Sergey Lavrov still be the Foreign Minister of Russia on January 1, 2024?
|
[image]related:
[markets]
|
2023-01-02T02:45:30
|
2024-01-01T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:59:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KL4PjyYxd3fJB02x3AlK
|
Will Crypto.com be insolvent by the end of 2023?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Crypto.com withdrawals for USDC, BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that Crypto.com is insolvent by Dec 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “Yes.”
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Crypto.com withdrawals being suspended for a majority of users means that a majority users are unable to withdraw their USDC, BTC and/or ETH, from Crypto.com.
If Crypto.com suspends withdrawals on a day in the last week of December (e.g Crypto.com halts token withdrawals on December 30, 2023, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 7 full days pass, resulting in a "No" resolution; 2) 7 full days pass (Dec 30 - Jan 6, 2024, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to official information released by Crypto.com, the leadership of Crypto.com, and/or official representatives of Crypto.com (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2023-01-02T02:26:05
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T10:56:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NAvcSQ1pzzMaCBKBIUqX
|
Republicans control Congress after 2024
|
Resolves YES if Republicans control both the Senate and House of Representatives after the 2024 elections.
|
2023-01-02T00:53:55
|
2024-11-13T20:07:21
|
2024-11-13T20:07:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pCcUHO3puq7jly5qKaMi
|
Republican party trifecta in 2024
|
Resolves YES if Republicans control the Presidency and both the Senate and House of Representatives after the 2024 elections.
|
2023-01-02T00:51:00
|
2024-11-16T12:24:13
|
2024-11-16T12:24:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-530eh155CPQza6Aoizn2
|
Democratic party trifecta in 2024
|
Resolves YES if Democrats control the Presidency and both the Senate and House of Representatives after the 2024 elections.
|
2023-01-02T00:50:30
|
2024-11-06T10:41:57
|
2024-11-06T10:41:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qhq1L3xNJWMeUIWFvk0H
|
In 2023, Israel will be openly involved in a military conflict with Iran.
|
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/01/ukraine-taiwan-north-korea-iran-palestine-flashpoints-2023
An article in The Guardian suggests potential flashpoints in 2023, including Iran and Israel.
"Iran is near boiling point, too, owing to sweeping anti-government protests – and because nuclear talks with the west face imminent collapse. Even if Iran makes dramatic concessions, it is hard to see the US president, Joe Biden, cutting a deal with a regime that actively murders and tortures its young women.
Head-on (as opposed to covert) Israel-Iran military confrontation could be one result of a final western rupture with Tehran. That in turn could draw in Iraq and Syria – more unfinished US business – as well as Russia."
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:00 am
|
2023-01-02T00:01:54
|
2023-12-31T15:00:00
|
2024-01-01T16:14:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TsbJKnwgiTxa9m2Nt5MI
|
Will the Speaker of the House (Kevin McCarthy) serve for a full two years?
|
Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House to be elected [EDIT: Kevin McCarthy] is still in office at the end of their two-year term (January 3, 2025), and NO if they leave office for any reason (being ousted, resigning, dying, etc).
Background: Kevin McCarthy, front-runner to become the next Speaker (PredictIt currently says he has a 68% chance), has just conceded "he would lower the barriers for rank-and-file members to attempt to depose a sitting speaker ... If adopted, the new rule would allow five members of the House majority to force a vote of no-confidence in their leader." (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/01/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote-00076002)
All Speakers since 1940 have served out their full terms, with three exceptions: John Boehner resigned in 2015 after conflicts with the Freedom Caucus, Jim Wright resigned in 1989 after an ethics investigation, and Sam Rayburn died in 1961 at age 79. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_speakers_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-01-01T20:07:19
|
2023-10-03T16:05:19
|
2023-10-03T16:05:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f96Y91sN0blSoxjZroex
|
Will GPT-4 be the most searched model of 2023?
|
[image]
|
2023-01-01T17:25:14
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:43:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aFHCm6eRXqlLZkQQb1Ho
|
Will Destiny re-dye his blue hair [YES] or chop it of [NO] (neither will result in N/A)
|
Close date updated to 2023-06-30 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-01T17:13:56
|
2023-08-20T11:52:58
|
2023-08-20T11:52:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CRYAt4gkj21vzNHsJPQ2
|
Will Destiny start (host or co-host) a new in-person podcast in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-01T17:04:24
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T09:47:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S0CanijYUOEkxI98kuq7
|
Will Destiny appear on the Scuffed Podcast in 2023?
|
There were some rumblings of Train doing a special YouTube episode of Scuffed so that Destiny could be a guest. This never came to fruition.
In 2023, do you think that Destiny will appear on the Scuffed Podcast?
|
2023-01-01T16:41:37
|
2023-12-15T06:39:01
|
2023-12-15T06:39:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JJhOlaRCBnyehcszL2DF
|
Will Destiny be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
|
Resolves July 14, 2024 - after democratic primaries.
[image]Serious poll, please discuss below.
|
2023-01-01T14:23:21
|
2024-07-14T04:00:00
|
2025-01-22T13:16:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7psmDolVjRNbUESSC8UI
|
Will Xi Jinping still be president of China and Vladimir Putin president of Russia on 1 January 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-01T13:30:39
|
2024-01-01T15:59:00
|
2024-01-13T09:00:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v4D8scRf07YSNlsTXrOS
|
Will Destiny launch his Media Company in 2023?
|
Resolves yes if Destiny announces the creation of the company/website and makes it available to the public.
Destiny first talks about it here: https://youtu.be/251i-5-s19k?t=11582 https://youtu.be/251i-5-s19k?t=16477
|
2023-01-01T13:15:14
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T15:39:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vcn9J4PCOwmTsPHmihau
|
Will Trevor Bauer start a game in the major leagues this year?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-01T12:52:30
|
2023-12-11T15:38:45
|
2023-12-11T15:38:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EFykBsNxLzNZiIsL9Tdw
|
Will Destiny Stream on a platform other than Youtube in 2023? (Twitch,Rumble,etc)
|
Resolves yes if Destiny creates an offical account on another platform and streams for at least 30 mins. Guest appearences do not count.
[image]
|
2023-01-01T12:25:47
|
2023-03-20T10:15:55
|
2023-03-20T10:15:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4d3JSedo0iEyQOAOysSs
|
Will Destiny have a 20k viewer stream in Q1 2023
|
Resolves Yes if Destiny has 20k viewers on his own stream by March 31st.
Edit: If Destiny does end up multi streaming to Facebook/Rumble this market will include the viewers from all platforms.
[image]
|
2023-01-01T12:13:49
|
2023-03-20T14:55:36
|
2023-03-20T14:55:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ik5vhV5CcNYEI4zs1ogD
|
Will Ethereum go above $3k for at least 24 hours before 2024?
|
Full 24hours on Coingecko
Grouped Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-reach-10k-before-it-re/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le)
|
2023-01-01T12:13:39
|
2023-12-31T08:41:34
|
2023-12-31T08:41:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xmgQKlpoIuKVouzTB6Rd
|
Will Aella be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?
|
If Aella and Destiny become romantically involved for any length of time before the end of 2024, this market resolves YES, even if they later stop being involved.
For the purposes of this market, "romantic involvement" constitutes voluntary physical intimacy (sex, kissing, hand-holding, etc.) along with mutual expressions of love or romantic emotions. (Including something like sexting.) It does not include platonic friendship or anything that only occurred because someone paid for it or because one of them wants to manipulate this market
I reserve the right to resolve this market to N/A if Destiny or Aella asks me to, out of respect for their privacy.
If no clear evidence for YES has emerged by the end of 2024, I'll leave this market open for a few weeks afterwards just in case it took a while to become public. If nothing has come to light by then, this will resolve NO.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Details:
The creator may resolve the market earlier than the standard timeline if sufficient evidence is available.
|
2023-01-01T12:09:27
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00
|
2025-01-02T11:56:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lAnIrmABP54UfCM9193f
|
Will Ethereum go below $700 for at least 24 hours before 2024?
|
Full 24hours on Coingecko
Grouped Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-reach-10k-before-it-re/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le)
|
2023-01-01T11:31:03
|
2023-12-31T10:21:07
|
2023-12-31T10:21:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GpTELUJ5sWZfYTBRUWAM
|
Will Bitcoin reach $12k before it reaches $30k?
|
Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window above/below these values
Related Markets
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-bitcoin-go-below-10k-for-at-le/will-bitcoin-go-above-50k-for-at-le)
|
2023-01-01T11:28:42
|
2023-04-11T07:07:24
|
2023-04-11T07:07:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zLADnd3CV6otjU0IW5Or
|
Will the S&P 500 close above 4000 at the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-01T10:33:07
|
2023-12-29T13:38:30
|
2023-12-29T13:38:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ubZXNUCEuYSUEe8UIQJo
|
Will there be official confirmation of a Mistborn movie in 2023
|
Resolves yes if either Brandon Sanderson dragonsteel or a production company announce that they have signed for a mistborn movie
|
2023-01-01T10:10:23
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-02T05:46:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-14AfHIg24oAaVAR6vuh3
|
Will Sequoia markdown the value of their Twitter stake by more than half?
|
Any fund that takes institutional money must report audited valuations of every company in their portfolio on a quarterly basis. This market resolves YES if Sequoia writes down the the value of their stake by more than 50-percent.
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm
|
2023-01-01T10:03:05
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:20:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iHlUrH04wMnAC02aQXXc
|
"2023 will make 2022 look like a sleepy year for AI advancement & adoption"
|
Update 2024-Feb-16
I never heard back from Brockman, and the price spent >5 days >=90%. Resolved YES.
Update 2024-Jan-08:
No response from Brockman. So we fall back to the Keynesian Beauty Contest. Starting Jan 8th, I will wait until the price stabilizes for 5+ days at <=10% (resolves "No"), OR spending 5+ days at >=90% (resolves "Yes").
But if Brockman replies and agrees with me, then the KBC would be cancelled and we'd switch back to resolving based on the agreement.
Update 2024-Jan-02:
I asked Brockman if he still endorses calling 2022 a "sleepy" year. However impressive 2023 was, it's misleading amnesia to call 2022 "sleepy".
But does Brockman still endorse it? We'll wait to see if he agrees. If he doesn't reply by Jan-7, then we convert this to the Keynesian Beauty Contest rules below, as a fallback. We'd also use those KBC rules if he does reply but disagrees with me (and still endorses the "sleepy" wording).
Original Description
This market is fuzzy and ambiguous. On 2022-Dec-31, Greg Brockman (Co-Founder of OpenAI) tweets:
Prediction: 2023 will make 2022 look like a sleepy year for AI advancement & adoption.
Around 2024-Jan-01, I will reply to Greg Brockman's tweet thread (or DM them), and ask if they feel that 2023 "made 2022 look like a sleepy year for AI advancement & adoption". If we agree about whether this "happened", then I'll resolve the market that way.
But if we disagree about whether this "happened", then I'll convert this market into a Keynesian Beauty Contest. I would wait for the price to stabilize, either spending 5+ days at <=10% (resolves "No"), OR spending 5+ days at >=90% (resolves "Yes"). This is only meant to be used if me and Greg Brockman don't agree afterward.
If Greg Brockman doesn't respond by 2024-Jan-7th, or gives an unclear answer, then we'll use the KBC. The close date is deliberately set excessively far in the future, so replies and reflection have whatever time they need.
|
2023-01-01T09:54:09
|
2024-02-16T08:59:39
|
2024-02-16T08:59:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NyH59Kahy8mifcrweJhR
|
Will Andor Season 2 release in 2024 as expected?
|
Resolved yes if the first episode is available to watch on Disney + in the US before the end of 2024. It is a highly anticipated second season of Star Wars tv. And the first season is quite good.
|
2023-01-01T09:49:32
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00
|
2025-01-02T15:56:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WtPKQV6WTa3VvJullOhB
|
Will there be a new Hello Internet episode in 2023?
|
Hello Internet is a podcast that has not posted an episode since February, 2020. The only word on the state of the podcast has come from one of the hosts who referred to the hiatus as a "break" (https://www.bradyharanblog.com/hello-internet). However, there has been no indication that there are any plans to resume the show. This question resolves positively if anything is posted to the Hello Internet podcast feed at any point in 2023. For the purposes of this question, it does not have to be a full or official episode to count.
|
2023-01-01T08:53:01
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T23:38:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xX5DiWMPpibaVMdV08MJ
|
Will Destiny get unbanned on twitch before Jan 1 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-01-01T07:11:07
|
2023-12-31T11:59:54
|
2023-12-31T11:59:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o39zjZWJ0JS3exGbyCQW
|
Will Destiny get unbanned on twitch before April?
|
Resolves YES if before April 2023, https://www.twitch.tv/destiny is unbanned. Otherwise NO.
Only this account will qualify here - if Destiny creates a different account, that will not count for this question, regardless of whether it is ban evasion or allowed by Twitch.
If the account is unbanned and then re-banned, that counts as YES, as long as the unban was intentional and not a mistake.
|
2023-01-01T06:17:54
|
2023-04-01T05:19:34
|
2023-04-01T05:19:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fEynd6HX5JURNRDwqO89
|
Will the word "stablecoin" be added to the Merriam-Webster online dictionary in 2023
|
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stablecoin currently says: The word you've entered isn't in the dictionary
|
2023-01-01T04:30:47
|
2023-12-31T04:59:00
|
2023-12-31T19:20:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mTMjwb8CNxte6xGnyYif
|
Will the Barbie (2023) movie be a box office success within one week of its theatrical release?
|
The market resolves to YES if the Barbie movie grosses >=2.5 times its cost (production + marketing) in total box office earnings worldwide a week after its theatrical release; else, it resolves to NO.
As of writing, the movie's production budget is $100 million but its marketing budget undisclosed.
Jan 2, 2:14am: Will the Barbie (2023) movie be a box office success? → Will the Barbie (2023) movie be a box office success within one week of its theatrical release?
|
2023-01-01T03:45:41
|
2023-07-27T09:00:00
|
2023-09-09T13:55:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BZqAOzHBZwCd2AWsjBnY
|
EUR/CHF >= 1, will the euro be equal to or higher than the Swiss franc by the end of 2023?
|
Using https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=EUR&To=CHF or the first exchange plateforme suggested on Google.com search, if xe.com is unavailable, by the end of 31-12-2023.
In words, we ask if, by the end of the year, you must pay one or more Swiss francs to get 1 euro.
|
2023-01-01T02:25:11
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T06:34:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zXL9g6jXNKkpnSBoxrTo
|
Will Binance USD depeg even slightly in 2023?
|
This resolves YES if the closing price for Binance USD listed here is ever less than $0.9900 in USD for any date in 2023.
|
2022-12-31T22:10:08
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:25:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sm94gcvZEUXvihYrG5vN
|
Will Tether depeg even slightly in 2023?
|
This resolves YES if the closing price for Tether listed here is ever less than $0.9900 in USD for any date in 2023.
|
2022-12-31T22:08:55
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:25:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jwEH9AldiAhk4iFh9e9y
|
Will Hunter Biden be criminally indicted in 2023?
|
Felony's and higher, State or Federal.
|
2022-12-31T21:30:10
|
2023-10-05T05:37:58
|
2023-10-05T05:37:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP
|
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?
|
Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
|
2022-12-31T20:35:23
|
2023-06-30T14:59:00
|
2023-07-01T10:56:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CtIkjtoAUf2DKUB3J6D7
|
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
|
By new I mean put into widespread commercial use during 2023. The effect will need to impact the whole sector of an economy (e.g. car manufacturing, online advertising, education) in a way that is noticeable in at least one key economic measure (growth, productivity, employment, profits, etc.).
Based on the US economy and NAICS defined sectors or subsectors. NAICS codes used will be anything at the 2 digit level with 3/4 digit codes evaluated on a case by case basis
|
2022-12-31T18:14:27
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:31:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-goNXbGyqTE5qj4Xp48yH
|
Will SBF plead guilty to all charges?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-31T13:34:54
|
2023-11-07T08:21:50
|
2023-11-07T08:21:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m5VihUBViJTDoZCJcd9E
|
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-31T13:27:43
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-92IUCFFB9PGb4aOMTCHq
|
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-31T13:27:21
|
2023-12-31T11:36:17
|
2023-12-31T11:36:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2e2C9XL88Medc9EL18mL
|
Will Destiny start playing Minecraft again in 2023?
|
Market closes 31st of december 2023.
Will steven grind minecraft again in 2023?
|
2022-12-31T13:03:41
|
2023-12-31T13:03:00
|
2023-12-31T13:42:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1SmjLoF1tmKlG5VTGvrH
|
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2023 NHL playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-31T11:08:27
|
2023-06-18T10:17:23
|
2023-06-18T10:17:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ykqeYPawGl3JsKUBIoUN
|
Will a Covid vaccine be pulled off the market due to safety concerns in 2023?
|
Resolves to YES if a vaccine that was widely administered (more than 1 million doses) is pulled off the market due to safety concerns in at least one OECD country, at any point in 2023.
Otherwise resolves to NO.
The term "pulled off the market" does not apply if rollout is only temporarily paused for 30 days or less.
Edit June 19:
It has to be an active choice by either a regulator or a pharmaceutical company to stop administering doses of a vaccine that were already produced and have not expired, and that choice has to be influenced mainly by safety concerns.
Does not count on its own:
A pharmaceutical company deciding not to produce additional doses of a specific vaccine
Doses of a vaccine expiring as part of their regular lifecycle
|
2022-12-31T10:30:32
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-02T00:38:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JdMwAwqc9eWgOHI20432
|
Will the S&P 500 index close both 10% above and 10% below 2022 closing price in 2023?
|
2022 closing price was 3839.5
Market resolves to YES if at any point in 2023 the index closes above 4223.45 (+10%) on any day in 2023 AND the index closes below 3455.55 (-10%) on any day in 2023.
|
2022-12-30T21:52:34
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T18:35:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ah821nQJkEVY79YLJQfa
|
Will US stocks outperform long term bonds in 2023?
|
Will the $VTI outperform the $BND in 2023? (Inclusive of stock splits and dividends)
[markets]
|
2022-12-30T20:48:04
|
2023-12-29T13:19:08
|
2023-12-29T13:19:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OoPouYX3YeK5vhBGv6dh
|
Will GPT-4 exceed chatGPT interest? (2023)
|
[image]
|
2022-12-30T20:01:15
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:38:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZXUWOojKFeOxvmlEvtpS
|
Will SBF plead guilty before trial?
|
Before the first day of trial
|
2022-12-30T19:58:52
|
2023-10-08T10:02:51
|
2023-10-08T10:02:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0ywISwPxuAclJjuZOhHD
|
Will a world leader be assassinated by the end of 2023?
|
Defining a "world leader" as the president/prime minister/highest-ranking official of a country, beginning January 1st 2023 and ending if someone is assassinated, or a world leader that is in power as of January 1st 2023 but later steps down. Assassination is either definitive (e.g. someone is shot on live TV) or a situation where there is a general consensus of experts/an UN body/some other indisputable evidence there is foul play (e.g. someone falls out a window).
|
2022-12-30T19:12:32
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T10:54:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-awEhNhbLGklkz3JzPlkr
|
Will the US impose broad sanctions against any new countries in 2023?
|
Dec 30, 11:38pm: Will the US institute broad sanctions against any new countries in 2023? → Will the US impose broad sanctions against any new countries in 2023?
|
2022-12-30T18:34:58
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:04:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BUDHdAVrVRw8BMKCDQ7D
|
Will Destiny lift sanctions on MrGirl at any time in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if any of the following occur:
Destiny announces the sanctions are lifted, or that he "doesn't care" if people talk to MrGirl
Does not count if he says it while in a conversation with a streamer who recently broke sanctions (see below)
Destiny has a conversation with MORE THAN ONE other streamer within a week of them talking to MrGirl - [EDIT 28/03/2023: must be on Destiny's stream as noted below]
For example, if <STREAMER> has a voice chat or IRL discussion with MrGirl on either <STREAMER>'s stream or MrGirls stream, and then has a voice chat or IRL appearance on Destiny's stream within 168 hours of that discussion. This would count as 1/2 for this conclusion.
If conversation between destiny and <STREAMER> concludes because destiny finds out they breached sanctions, this will NOT count toward 1/2 for this conclusion.
if Destiny finds out during their conversation that they breached sanctions and continues to discuss, they will only count as 1/2 here, and not satisfy the first resolution requirement stated above. Even if he explicitly says "I don't care" in that conversation.
2 occurrences before the end date any length apart will be accepted, but there must be 2 unique streamers (group call with 10 people who all broke sanctions will count, if >1 had significant interaction with MrGirl)
Destiny has a conversation with MrGirl directly, on Destiny's stream (MrGirl's or other platforms do not count, you must hear Max speak on Destiny's stream and he remain present for at least 5 minutes)
Will resolve no if
Resolution criteria as stated above are not met by the end date
MrGirl closes all social media and disappears for >14 days
MrGirl announces retirement from online content (14 day silence/waiting period to confirm)
MrGirl says he will never speak to or about Destiny or anyone in the orbit again (3 month waiting period to confirm)
MrGirl dies
MrGirl goes to prison
MrGirl is banned from twitter and has not streamed for 14 days
|
2022-12-30T18:14:45
|
2023-04-06T05:24:07
|
2023-04-06T05:24:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QzhYXA2995Exs7cPOa0i
|
Will the Kerch Strait Bridge (bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2023?
|
Resolves to YES if at any time in 2023 the Kerch Strait Bridge ends up in a state in which it cannot be used for more than two days. Planned maintenance does not count.
|
2022-12-30T18:08:30
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T13:12:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vVOCPYBx9ikH10Es64xV
|
Will Paul Graham create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if Paul Graham creates a market by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not.
[image]
|
2022-12-30T17:27:24
|
2023-12-31T20:23:40
|
2023-12-31T20:23:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J5ZduK47ghtuKDDaPRFE
|
Will Xi Jinping meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2023?
|
Resolves YES if Xi Jinping meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2023 anywhere in the world. Resolves NO if not.
[image]Dec 30, 8:21pm: Will Xi Jinping meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2022? → Will Xi Jinping meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in person during 2023?
|
2022-12-30T17:21:34
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T20:59:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Cj6zJH4pHAYL5Azc4mmP
|
Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if confirmed that Lex Fridman created a market on Manifold by end of 2023.
|
2022-12-30T17:18:43
|
2023-06-08T09:32:06
|
2023-06-08T09:32:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CGbzHM1Cherst3afDkca
|
Will mainland North America experience a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in 2023?
|
North America is from the Colombian/Panamanian border, 50 miles or less off the coast. Hawai'i and other islands do not count for the purpose of this market.
|
2022-12-30T17:16:56
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:22:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xWQBiyvpZ9lvSvUBSqzR
|
Will a notable Republican politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if any current or former Republican governors or members of congress are indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges in 2023. Otherwise NO.
This question is paired with:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-a-democratic-politician-be-ind)
|
2022-12-30T13:38:36
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:16:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yE2HK8BolYxZrYwMeHhd
|
Will the US approve an arms sales to Taiwan totaling greater than $5Bln during 2023?
|
Resolves YES once more than >$5Bln worth of arms sales are approved by the Biden administration during 2023. Resolves NO if by the end of 2023 total arms sales by the US to Taiwan <$5Bln.
|
2022-12-30T12:44:24
|
2023-12-31T20:43:36
|
2023-12-31T20:43:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PMQOLQbYvGq1GalV2alz
|
Will the US approve an arms sales to Taiwan totaling greater than $2Bln during 2023?
|
Resolves YES once more than >$2Bln worth of arms sales are approved by the Biden administration during 2023. Resolves NO if by the end of 2023 total arms sales by the US to Taiwan <$2Bln.
|
2022-12-30T12:44:00
|
2023-12-25T08:47:21
|
2023-12-25T08:47:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dFkjPcLYnCzld7kkSr9U
|
Will Elon Musk's twitter account be hacked in 2023?
|
For this to resolve YES the hackers must takeover the account and either post as Musk or modify the profile image/bio into a parody of the real life Musk or someone else
[image].
|
2022-12-30T12:27:19
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:00:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vMRe9DDQ4udIFm6j08ob
|
Will any Twitter account with at least 100,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?
|
In order to be "discovered" to be an AI, it must not have been publically known prior to the discovery.
Some minor human curating is fine, as is a human tweet here and there, as long as the majority of its engagement-genererating content was AI-generated.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2023-will-any-twitter)
|
2022-12-30T12:18:43
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T22:39:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kXGpgdeDvY4QVKUTDmwE
|
Will Destiny livestream on cozy.tv before April?
|
Resolves to YES if he goes live on cozy.tv/destiny before April 1st.
Context: https://youtu.be/5ZK8A7cfGK8?t=13409 -> mirror
|
2022-12-30T11:21:50
|
2023-03-31T20:59:00
|
2023-04-01T00:08:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TKbeoYzC6RejUGkIYqLe
|
Will Destiny livestream on cozy.tv in 2023?
|
Resolves to YES if he goes live on cozy.tv/destiny before 2023 ends.
Context: https://youtu.be/5ZK8A7cfGK8?t=13409 -> mirror
|
2022-12-30T11:08:22
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T19:07:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b8mNrTfGxYUXEq7tXrD6
|
Will Sam Bankman-Fried's father or mother be indicted by 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-30T06:41:53
|
2025-01-01T11:00:00
|
2025-01-01T12:04:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rDDcRKHfs7FYinPum1vw
|
Will Caltrain electrification finish on schedule in 2024?
|
Currently Caltrain electric trains are anticipated to start service in late-2024. The original timeline projected a 2021 opening, which was subsequently postponed to 2022, and now 2024. Resolves YES if I can ride an electric train on regular passenger service by December 31, 2024.
Edited to add context.
Changed close to Dec 31 to reduce ambiguity.
|
2022-12-30T05:21:44
|
2024-12-23T08:12:30
|
2024-12-23T08:12:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P2pLhD7byDbaPJGIYSay
|
Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?
|
In order to be "discovered" to be an AI, it must not have been publically known prior to the discovery.
Some minor human curating is fine, as is a human tweet here and there, as long as the majority of its engagement-genererating content was AI-generated.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-any-twitter-account-with-at-le-f5483bf4b2b7)
|
2022-12-30T02:53:02
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T22:39:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S2nlPtWWBMT3wDy6L56Y
|
Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?
|
Destiny has issued a cease and desist to Keffals demanding that she retracts defamatory statements she made. He has confirmed that Keffals and seen it, and he is still awaiting her response.
Will Keffals fulfill the requirements of the cease and desist that she received from Destiny's legal team?
This market will resolve to NO on July 1st, 2023 if she hasn't satisfied the terms of the C&D by that date.
|
2022-12-29T21:01:24
|
2023-06-30T22:01:00
|
2023-07-07T08:47:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GrQn5yCsBdiH6sxR8Y3X
|
Will Greg Abbott seek the GOP nomination for president in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if he announces and files necessary paperwork with the FEC.
|
2022-12-29T19:02:37
|
2024-01-17T19:16:29
|
2024-01-17T19:16:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MMM1XwFpJoHrTAv80jkT
|
Will the LDS Church (Mormons) get a new prophet (president of the church) before Dec 2023?
|
The current prophet and president of the church is Russell M Nelson, at age 98.
Resolve to Yes if the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints get a new prophet (president of the church) before Dec 2023
|
2022-12-29T16:32:01
|
2023-12-01T20:59:00
|
2023-12-03T15:16:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7bGmK0Gd5R7vhDCsE2KD
|
Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023?
|
Recession =2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Not going to entertain any nonsense about that not being the definition anymore.
Dec 31, 3:17am: Will there be a recession in 2023? → Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023?
|
2022-12-29T15:34:34
|
2023-12-30T17:11:35
|
2023-12-30T17:11:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WKOeAYcsHB6olbfYvvRP
|
Will California wildfire acreage be greater in 2023 than in 2022
|
Stats: https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/
2022 was 363,917 acres (provisional)
Authoritative number is whatever is most up to date from CalFire at close (using the YTD cumulative state and fed numbers as above)
Update: I'll resolve the market after the finalized 2023 numbers come out (which is some time after market close).
|
2022-12-29T13:03:28
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-06T14:57:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dOIDXce1UxKXwR2oQbro
|
Will Liren Ding surpass Magnus Carlsen to be the highest rating FIDE player at any point in 2023?
|
Resolution according to FIDE offical ratings
https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml
Resolve to Yes if Liren Ding surpasses Magnus Carlsen to be the highest rating FIDE player at any point in 2023, and someone included a screenshot of it as proof in the comments.
Liren Ding has to both surpasses Magnus Carlsen and be the highest rating FIDE player for the market to resolve to Yes.
|
2022-12-29T13:00:11
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:25:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u8ZwNskuFZlwKaKgIKwl
|
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2024?
|
Resolution according to FIDE offical ratings
https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml
|
2022-12-29T12:56:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uPT3rWwDPyqEbgGBaIkd
|
Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023?
|
Romanian police did an unannounced armed raid on Tate's home today,
allegedly connected to kidnapping of two underage girls.
Will criminal charges follow?
Clarificarion: I will resolve to YES if criminal charges are filed in any court, not strictly Romania,
as long as the charges are directly based on the events of the raid itself, &/or the Romanian investigation that the raid is part of.
Please feel free to ask me about hypothetical edge cases.
https://www.libertatea.ro/stiri/surse-perchezitii-diicot-tristan-tate-andrew-tate-sechestrare-fete-tristan-tate-bianca-dragusanu-4394856/amp
https://www.dexerto.com/entertainment/andrew-tates-luxury-villa-reportedly-raided-by-armed-police-in-romania-2019584/
Dec 31, 7:06pm: Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before 5/1/2023? → Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023?
|
2022-12-29T12:05:15
|
2023-04-30T23:59:00
|
2023-05-07T18:54:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-keb9F4XSUB9ByBP6tRGQ
|
Will Nintendo announce a new console by the end of 2023?
|
This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch. The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced, or if there are no console announcements.
|
2022-12-29T11:45:36
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:53:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Si1DxLpnQfU4JDEBcmtn
|
Will Trump ever run as an independent in the 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-29T11:13:09
|
2024-11-06T20:22:35
|
2024-11-06T20:22:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z0KyjKjJ9AlGe8EQ6UyX
|
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Atlanta Hawks win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-29T11:00:11
|
2023-04-28T01:11:43
|
2023-04-28T01:11:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-btwMAe5pMa5RRT4PWxMm
|
Will the Apple Watch Series 9 measure blood glucose?
|
To clarify, the Watch itself needs to have the measuring capability (either in the "box" or the band). An external device making the measurement that connects to the Apple Watch does not count.
|
2022-12-29T09:43:12
|
2023-09-13T10:30:08
|
2023-09-13T10:30:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JL2l4t6xwgwCsVoB5dxY
|
Will the Apple Watch series 9 measure blood pressure?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-29T09:42:13
|
2023-09-13T10:31:28
|
2023-09-13T10:31:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OIju8TVhaGh9RPY9SA2E
|
Will the iPhone 15 starting price be greater than $799?
|
Resolves YES if the base model iPhone 15 costs more than $799, and resolves NO if the base model costs less than or equal to $799.
|
2022-12-29T08:45:32
|
2023-09-29T17:00:00
|
2023-10-01T09:40:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GU2d3JOZNYMePWDQWkJg
|
Will Donald trump be indicted, but flee before arrest? [2023 limit]
|
At the time of opening this market: MM users give a 75% chance of indictment in 2023 but only a 39% chance of arrest in 2023 or 2024.
Both markets have more than 500 trades on and are relatively stable. Arrest follows indictment, so either people are unsure of the terms, OR they are ascribing a 36% chance of DT being indicted but avoiding arrest. I'd like to use this market to check that 36% gap.
This market will resolve at the end of 2023, or if DT flees the USA, or is arrested, whichever comes first.
|
2022-12-29T07:18:15
|
2023-04-05T05:29:21
|
2023-04-05T05:29:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HaWSjHQxxVF16LlW5GWR
|
Will at least 10 Conservative MPs publicly call for Rishi Sunak to resign in 2023 (conditional on no general election taking place)?
|
Resolves to YES if at least 10 Conservative Members of Parliament (in the UK) publicly call for Rishi Sunak to resign as leader of the Conservative Party and/or as Prime Minister in 2023. This must be a call for an immediate or fairly immediate resignation; saying that they do not want Sunak to fight the next general election does not count.
Submitting a letter of no confidence in Sunak (and announcing this publicly) counts, unless the MP explicitly says that they support Sunak staying in power and are submitting a letter for some other reason (e.g. so that Sunak wins a vote of no confidence to strengthen his position).
Voting against the government in a parliamentary vote of no confidence would also count (unless there are some sort of special circumstances).
The 10 Conservative MPs do not need to do this at the same time, and this can still resolve to YES if some of them change their minds; all that is needed is for 10 different individuals to all have called for Sunak to resign.
If a general election takes place in 2023 before 10 MPs have called for Sunak to resign, this will resolve to N/A (because if Sunak lost an election, this would be almost certain to occur).
|
2022-12-29T02:50:40
|
2024-01-03T01:59:01
|
2024-01-03T01:59:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iiHxkltEd2s92kylTdEP
|
Does SBF get a sentence of 20 years or more?
|
Update: I just noticed the trial was split. To be clear, this is meant to include both.
Also to be clear, house arrest doesn't count.
|
2022-12-28T18:22:05
|
2024-03-28T16:52:24
|
2024-03-28T16:52:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7FRNxEjhUKQyvcs9EpDf
|
Will Rep.-elect George Santos be charged with a crime by the end of 2024?
|
This market will resolve YES if George Santos is charged with any crime (felony or misdemeanor), as determined through official government sources or other reliable sources, anywhere in the United States by December 31, 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
Background: After being elected to the US House of Representatives, George Santos has publicly stated that he fabricated elements of his education and work experience. He now faces an investigation by Nassau County district attorney Anne Donnelly; see https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/28/nyregion/george-santos-long-island-investigation.html.
Clarification 1/2/2023: Charges originating outside the United States (e.g. charges brought in Brazil) will not affect the resolution of this market as the market description applied to charges from "anywhere in the United States". The following market relates to the Brazil charges:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/octothorpe/will-repelect-george-santos-appear)
|
2022-12-28T16:17:32
|
2023-05-10T08:42:22
|
2023-05-10T08:42:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GjbV0SxPzwCj4YTGx3Fo
|
Will Lex Fridman interview Elon by 2024?
|
Related:
[markets]
|
2022-12-28T15:21:43
|
2023-11-09T11:34:54
|
2023-11-09T11:34:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JjvfXr6ephkckOoA8JFK
|
Will Destiny still have blue hair after 31 mars 2023?
|
Resolves Yes if his hair is still blue (even if its faded)
Resolves No if his hair is back to normal or another color
|
2022-12-28T12:11:06
|
2023-03-31T15:00:00
|
2023-03-31T19:09:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KYyIsLO5he2Fppbkqkba
|
Will another cloud-based password management service with >1 million users be hacked and have user password vaults stolen in 2023?
|
Based off of the LastPass breach and the theft of encrypted user password vaults, what is the likelyhood that another (edit 2023-01-17: non-LastPass) major password management service will be similarly breached in 2023?
https://blog.lastpass.com/2022/12/notice-of-recent-security-incident/
Criteria:
Service must be a cloud-based password management service with >1 million unique users (active or not) at the time of the attack. If it seems at all close on that user threshold, assume "yes".
Attack must occur within calendar 2023, UTC. Detection/disclosure of attack need not be.
The architecture of the service must primarily or exclusively be around storage of encrypted user password vaults. A generic cloud-storage / file management service (Dropbox, Google Drive, OneDrive) does not count. Password security/strength checkers that incidentally use and store metadata/previous breaches to evaluate secure passwords also don't count. (ok I probably could have just said YouHaveBeenPwned/Pwned Passwords, here).
At least one user password being displayed to the attacker and/or exfiltrated as a data download (even if an encrypted version of that password) qualifies as a breach, provided it was by an external and unauthorized party. (An employee absconding with a jilted lover's password file does not count). * see caveat in criterion #7.
The breach must be disclosed in a major media outlet, if not by the company directly. If a publication is remotely questionable on this criteria, assume "no".
(Added 2023-01-17) A second (through nth...) breach of LastPass does not count for this market. It must be a non-LastPass service. (That said, if some really wild edge case happens, like LastPass acquires a qualifying service and the breach is or seems to be entirely isolated to / affecting that service and its users, I reserve the right to go with YES after all.)
(Added 2023-01-25) A bulk attack on the service, using credential stuffing or other techniques that don't exploit a bug or vulnerability, and that results in a widespread compromise of user accounts will count, if there are clear preventive measures that a password security service could have taken to prevent them. For instance:
lacking two-factor authentication
not checking or having weak requirements for password strength for vaults' master passwords
not having a means to stop or throttle bulk malicious traffic
These all feel like negligence on the part of the password security service.
Caveat: isolated reports of a single user's or targeted set of users' passwords being obtained through credential stuffing, phishing, social engineering, etc. (even someone high-profile like a government leader or celebrity technology leader) will not count, even if such an episode would otherwise pass criterion #4. The rubric here will be "does it seem like they were going for specific individuals or just every user account they could find?"
If an attack is discovered that started prior to 2023, but spans/spanned into 2023, the attack will not count unless it is evident that the company knew about the initial attack, did no mitigation, and left themselves open to a second, distinct copycat event that did occur in 2023.
Added 2023-01-25) This market will resolve YES earlier than the close date when a) there is a public report of a potentially qualifying breach and b) the company has either admitted or confirmed a sufficient number of details to pass all the criteria. A news report purporting all sufficient details itself isn't enough, and I will allow the time needed for the impacted service to conduct their investigation to confirm.
Otherwise, this market will close at midnight 2024 UTC. The resolution will be four months later on May Day (lol) 2024 UTC. (Based on four months between the attack and disclosure for LastPass). If a suspected but unconfirmed breach is being reported by a service as of May Day, the market resolution will remain pending until that investigation concludes (or "all conclude" if there are, heaven forbid, multiple ongoing).
(Added 2023-01-26) List of services that are being or had been considered as resolution candidates:
Norton Lifelock / Norton Password Manager - NO
|
2022-12-28T10:24:25
|
2023-12-31T21:00:00
|
2024-05-05T18:12:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P9HauiYp1BS5orPEa0as
|
Will there be significant Right-Wing riots between Presidential Election Day 2024 (11/05/24) and inauguration (01/20/25)?
|
Significant riots will be approximately 500 participants in more than 2 major US cities. "Right-wing" will be determined by prominent useage of right wing branding/iconography. A riot is a situation in which people in a crowd are engaging in violence and/or destruction in the streets or another public space.
|
2022-12-28T09:21:07
|
2025-01-19T15:59:00
|
2025-01-19T16:01:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bIxA63KjxWrWiga6eUmK
|
Will Joe Biden Publicly Refer to a Specific AI Model While President?
|
"Publicly refer to" means in recorded speech (so not a written press release/statement likely written by someone else), but it need not be part of a formal address (i.e. bringing it up in response to a reporter's question or at a campaign event is sufficient to resolve yes).
Examples of specific AI models: "ChatGPT," "GPT-4," "Chinchilla," "DALLE-3," "AlphaGo." Mentioning an AI company and referring to its "product" or some such is not sufficient.
Mispronunciations where its clear he intended to refer to a known model (i.e. "GTP-4") will resolve yes.
If a reporter asks something like "what do you think of GPT-5?" and Biden responds without repeating the name or otherwise demonstrating it's something he's specifically aware of, that is not sufficient. Repeating the name in perfunctory way that suggests no previous private discussion/thought about the model is not sufficient in principle, but presents a hard edge case that will resolve with my best judgment as to whether previous thought/discussion happened.
|
2022-12-28T05:06:25
|
2025-01-21T22:09:39
|
2025-01-31T16:17:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xZAZGWRxpC5dpCpYPUnu
|
Will there be a US Government shutdown during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-27T23:13:02
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:12:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gnYAPiIy5oPySEe7V0Ac
|
Will Mohammed bin Salman become the King of Saudi Arabia during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-27T23:11:44
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:19:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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