id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-QkCtxZOcLtJe8q2vrs7s | Will Erdogan win the 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-27T23:08:04 | 2023-05-28T15:10:35 | 2023-05-28T15:10:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i5Yrga4sFpADOygVyINo | Will Ramnik Arora be arrested in connection with FTX / Alameda? | Ramnik Arora was the head of product for FTX and head of investor relations for Alameda Research Ventures.
This market resolves Yes if credible reporting or primary sources (the government) report an arrest anywhere in the world in connection with actions taken at FTX and/or Alameda, or any subsidiary or affiliated en... | 2022-12-27T22:37:21 | 2023-12-31T06:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:51:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gNGLnPhUFJXW9cOIrpFN | Will Google Chrome have over 65% market share in worldwide browser usage in Dec 2023? | Resolution according to the statistics from StatCounter:
https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share
| 2022-12-27T21:36:01 | 2024-01-01T21:42:08 | 2024-01-01T21:42:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qi3mxFyvEdu2o5PPzhzj | Will Google Chrome have over 65% market share in worldwide browser usage in June 2023? | Resolution according to the statistics from StatCounter:
https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share
| 2022-12-27T21:35:35 | 2023-07-05T20:59:00 | 2023-07-09T08:30:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QEAxlX0CbnPS5p0twGFa | Will Google Chrome remain the most popular browser by the end of 2024? | Resolution according to the "Usage share of all browsers" table in this wikipedia entry:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers
| 2022-12-27T21:26:41 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wsxIvkFcGZnSGAmAhctb | Will Australia vote affirmatively to add an 'Indigenous Voice to Parliament' into the constitution during 2023? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Voice_to_Parliament
"By this time next year, the Voice to Parliament referendum will have been held, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says": https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/anthony-albanese-flags-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-to-be-held-within-year/6dpprmn05
"To... | 2022-12-27T21:26:37 | 2023-10-15T20:01:43 | 2023-10-15T20:01:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TWNqOCQEwiv0B67cfSf6 | Trump created his own NFT. Will the floor price of the Trump Digital Trading Cards NFT collection go below 0.05 ETH before the end of 2023? | New York Times article about Trump's NFT
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/us/politics/trump-nft-trading-cards-superhero.html
Resolves to Yes if the flood price of the Trump Digital Trading Cards NFT collection go below 0.05 ETH after the creation of this market
Resolution according to Open Sea's data
https://open... | 2022-12-27T21:19:25 | 2023-10-15T09:41:53 | 2023-10-15T09:41:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iJQYnJ9bOdJa079817bn | Will Elon Musk show up on the Joe Rogan's Podcast on year 2023? | Resolve to Yes if Elon Musk showed up on the Joe Rogan's Podcast on year 2023 | 2022-12-27T21:14:08 | 2023-11-03T10:25:22 | 2023-11-03T10:25:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pL3Od9bYzzIflVmKO9xr | Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of Jun 2023? | The war will be considered to have ended if a ceasefire happened and is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.
| 2022-12-27T20:13:09 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-07-05T14:00:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZBMtqQAt1RhZTKTeXaS9 | Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of Apr 2023? | The war will be considered to have ended if a ceasefire happened and is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.
| 2022-12-27T20:12:55 | 2023-04-30T20:59:00 | 2023-05-14T11:26:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h8Y4tWlfUZIakgvSSG6u | Will any fusion reactor demonstrate >2:1 energy efficiency by the end of 2023? | Measured as the ratio of energy put into the fuel to energy released from fusion. For example, the Lawrence Livermore labs experiment released 2.5 MJ of energy from an input of 2.1 MJ, which gives an efficiency of 1.19:1.
Source:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/12/breakthrough-in-nuclear-fusion-could... | 2022-12-27T19:17:01 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:27:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eERFAt07DX0uXDXkjX0T | Will Mark Zuckerberg still be CEO of Meta at the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-27T18:53:12 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T10:35:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WKfjOOzrTrqlddgqWeXR | Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted on charges related to manipulation or fraud by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if Avraham Eisenberg is convicted on charges related to manipulation or fraud in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023, otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/
Avraham Eisenberg, the crypto investor whose “highly profitabl... | 2022-12-27T16:33:11 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:16:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uZvvcEVea76FLcKmuy86 | Will SBF plead guilty before July 1? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-27T14:34:15 | 2023-06-30T21:59:00 | 2023-07-10T11:25:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KVUIBSW1eJ9KWkrl58eJ | Will SBF be sentenced to 10+ Years? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-27T14:32:36 | 2024-03-28T13:05:51 | 2024-03-28T13:05:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7 | Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good? | Inspired by this comment. I will resolve this market to the best of my ability based on evidence provided to me before the end of February.
If Jamie (or anyone else) can provide any instance (or extremely strong yet indirect evidence of the existance of such an instance) of Scott, at any point of their life, clearly a... | 2022-12-27T14:25:23 | 2023-03-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-19T18:45:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V2uUGwmUaN2stChfN2pd | Will there be a new pope elected by the 17th of December 2024? | Pope Francis is 86 years old at the moment and would be 88 years old on the 17th of December 2024. He seems to be in good health exept impaired mobility coused by pain in his right knee.
Resolves YES if a new pope is elected by the 17th of December 2024. NO if the succesor of pope Francis has not been by the 17th of ... | 2022-12-27T12:47:44 | 2024-12-16T14:00:00 | 2024-12-20T02:13:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ckso1KafVSsUy5nHBCxp | Will more than 1,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired at Israel during the second half of 2023? | Main source for market resolution:
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel
Resolution criteria
I will use the number given by the source. If the source is unavailable at the market close, I will find another one.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market for ... | 2022-12-27T11:16:57 | 2023-10-12T00:14:16 | 2023-10-12T00:14:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kWnw6Q3bKMB8iHhT7fMU | Will Elon Musk get a margin call from Twitter's lenders by the end of 2023? | Twitter's $13B in debt is secured by Elon Musk's TSLA shares, which have fallen something like 65 percent since he first started pursuing the Twitter deal. There is a real possibility Musk could get a margin call because the value of his collateral is no longer sufficient. Tesla simply isn't worth a P/E Ratio in the 30... | 2022-12-27T09:27:21 | 2023-12-31T20:24:20 | 2023-12-31T20:24:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j8oj1fATCUJSyIeIyHqC | Will the S&P 500 increase in 2023? | Will S&P 500 increase from open on 3 January 2023 (3853.29) to close on 29 December 2023 ()?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-novembe-145f77830ae9
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q4-2023https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices | 2022-12-27T07:35:30 | 2023-12-29T17:00:00 | 2023-12-30T15:56:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DbwRy5iWAgWMQAXfElyd | Will S&P 500 increase overall in Q1 2023? | Will S&P 500 increase from open on 3 January 2023 (3853.29) to close on 31 March 2023 (4109.31)?
Source: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices | 2022-12-27T07:34:06 | 2023-04-02T11:27:30 | 2023-04-02T11:27:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nIK0vLcgcoRL7QWCplNT | Will the median Manhattan apartment rent rise in 2023? | According to Zillow Manhattan zip codes data or alternative trustworthy data source. | 2022-12-27T07:27:39 | 2024-01-10T15:59:00 | 2024-01-11T07:55:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NLwnmYws7QqISWb449GN | Will Donovan Mitchell win the Most Valuable Player award for the 2022-2023 NBA season? | This market will resolve 'YES' if Donovan Mitchell wins the Most Valuable Player award for the 2022-2023 NBA season. The award date has not yet been announced. Starting odds are taken from Basketball Reference's MVP Award Tracker on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr. | 2022-12-27T07:07:48 | 2023-05-02T16:44:58 | 2023-05-02T16:44:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z0VFA6IdkKF82hRErzp7 | Will Nikola Jokić win the Most Valuable Player award for the 2022-2023 NBA season? | This market will resolve 'YES' if Nikola Jokić wins the Most Valuable Player award for the 2022-2023 NBA season. The award date has not yet been announced. Starting odds are taken from Basketball Reference's MVP Award Tracker on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr. | 2022-12-27T06:58:31 | 2023-05-02T16:32:54 | 2023-05-02T16:32:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TPjX7T7Szvysh7FbH32C | Will the next Twitter CEO have over 10 Million Twitter-Follower prior to the anouncement? | Resolves YES, if there is evidence, like follower-trackers, that provide data from the past for the new CEO confirming he/she had over 10 Million Follower prior to the announcement that he/she will be new CEO. | 2022-12-27T02:24:47 | 2023-05-14T02:05:47 | 2023-05-14T02:06:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gArLtRBFWyNxIoPvrI1i | Will John Carmack seriously engage with the alignment community by the end of 2023? | Discussing alignment concerns with people such as
Paul Christiano
Richard Ngo
Buck Shlegeris
for more than 10 hours in total would count. I also would count spending around 2x this amount of time reading and/or writing takes about whether or not alignment research is important, how bad/good speeding up capabiliti... | 2022-12-27T00:04:56 | 2024-01-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-31T19:05:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pj3SKvYb91GLBHz3Eqwe | Will the blue check of Jesus Christ's Twitter profile be removed before the end of 2023? | Resolve to Yes if the blue check of Jesus Christ's Twitter profile (@Jesus) is removed at any point before the end of 2023
https://twitter.com/jesus?s=20 | 2022-12-26T21:10:04 | 2023-10-06T02:39:53 | 2023-10-06T02:39:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Jsv0Bhta4VZB8V0iC5gL | Will any of Dmitry Medvedev's predictions come true in 2023? | Resolves to "YES" if any of the ten predictions in this thread come true in their entirety by EOY 2023.
[tweet] | 2022-12-26T17:32:58 | 2023-12-31T19:22:18 | 2023-12-31T19:22:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cMyoVSDkVvKeAuUKbPfQ | 2023 Medvedev's Predictions #8: Will a civil war break out in the US? | Prediction for 2023 made by Dmitry Medvedev.
Will resolve most objectively, according to credible reports' consensus and with a little help from this community.
[tweet]
| 2022-12-26T16:18:15 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T07:50:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qXOy4yUJaezatde0U14A | Will the U.S. dollar be pegged to gold at the end of 2023? | This is prediction #10 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
The Bretton Woods system ended in the 1970s with the Jamaica Accords, but Medvedev's Twitter prediction claims it will collapse in 2023. This market resolves YES if the U.S. dollar is pegged to gold at the en... | 2022-12-26T16:08:45 | 2023-12-31T21:14:26 | 2023-12-31T21:14:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-juvMwHhE9fOXz5H7wTSa | Will Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland in 2023? | This is prediction #7 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves YES if by the end of 2023 the Republic of Ireland controls Northern Ireland. | 2022-12-26T16:00:48 | 2023-12-31T21:16:13 | 2023-12-31T21:16:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S5IxHycQoa37farVD755 | Will France fight a war against Germany in 2023? | This is prediction #6 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves YES if in 2023 France declares war on Germany or if French and German troops engage in armed conflict against one another in Europe leading to at least 100 deaths.
Jan 22, 11:21pm: Will France fight ... | 2022-12-26T15:58:38 | 2023-12-31T21:16:44 | 2023-12-31T21:16:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yGXveLibVOZ4wv6tQYuu | Will a country controlling 2022 territory of Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and the Baltics exist by the end of 2023? | This is prediction #5 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves YES if a country exists at the end of 2023 that controls at least some territory within each of these countries' 2022 borders:
Germany
Czechia
Slovakia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland | 2022-12-26T15:56:55 | 2023-12-31T21:18:26 | 2023-12-31T21:18:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t1KDGX0kkQhZjFsMRTJ1 | At the end of 2023, will Poland or Hungary occupy any territory that was controlled by Ukraine in 2013? | This is prediction #4 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions. | 2022-12-26T15:54:24 | 2023-12-31T21:18:13 | 2023-12-31T21:18:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2i1C6ELbPlfhSvoGwbqy | Will any country use the Euro as its official currency at the end of 2023? | This is part of prediction #3 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions. | 2022-12-26T15:51:30 | 2023-12-31T21:18:43 | 2023-12-31T21:18:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QZIVlL0OHclas30RRlS9 | Will the United Kingdom become a candidate to rejoin the European Union in 2023? | This is prediction #2 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves YES if the United Kingdom either joins the EU or becomes an EU candidate country during 2023. | 2022-12-26T15:50:03 | 2023-12-31T21:14:13 | 2023-12-31T21:14:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QIdH6FP4pUNTHPmY90RX | 2023 Medvedev's Predictions #1: Will oil price rise to $150/barrel? | Prediction for 2023 made by Dmitry Medvedev, will resolve to YES if oil barrel's price rises to $150 and cubic meter of gas to $5,000.
(Will resolve 50/50 if only one price happens.)
[tweet]
Will resolve most objectively, according to credible reports consensus and with a little help from this community.
Dec 27,... | 2022-12-26T15:47:22 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T08:00:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ExX8sy4wzPRM71t4bRCS | Will the price of crude oil reach $150 at any time in 2023? | This is prediction #1 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves if the listed price at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl00 is at or above US$150 any time in 2023 (Pacific Time). | 2022-12-26T15:43:02 | 2023-12-31T21:17:59 | 2023-12-31T21:17:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Bb4cbA4iHjo1QQDQm1yL | Will you be able to pet the dogs in "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom"? | Pre-release gameplay demonstrations will suffice for YES. | 2022-12-26T15:24:40 | 2023-05-11T05:00:00 | 2023-05-17T16:34:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-olazguKkjqWvgn7vp6nD | Will neither Desantis nor Trump be the GOP 2024 nominee? | Resolves YES if the GOP nominates someone other than the former guy and the Florida guy.
[image] | 2022-12-26T12:48:19 | 2024-09-10T13:50:28 | 2024-09-10T13:50:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m9bQJyAH89r1ntkYXTfE | Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024? | [image] | 2022-12-26T12:46:54 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T00:57:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G6ALf4xz2haQGpLWZSyg | Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a prison sentence of over 64 years? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-26T12:16:09 | 2024-03-28T11:40:24 | 2024-03-28T11:40:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3DZEI4bQOmNSn2csACRT | Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a prison sentence of over 44 years? |
Close date updated to 2024-01-26 4:59 pm
Close date updated to 2025-12-26 3:59 pm | 2022-12-26T12:15:49 | 2024-03-28T11:47:06 | 2024-03-28T11:47:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RgpbrUmEG8QuZi5ksJzI | Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a prison sentence of over 39 years? |
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 3:59 pm | 2022-12-26T12:15:39 | 2024-03-28T11:47:02 | 2024-03-28T11:47:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ezCSz1h0xLTOyl3TL1AH | Will destiny be featured on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2023? | Will resolve as a yes if Destiny is a named guest on any 2023 episode of the Lex Fridman podcast. | 2022-12-26T09:28:43 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:18:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qblxJKiXQHDMnNUGa3U0 | Will India test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-26T09:25:35 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:32:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5QZcEW1BzuAOFByntvUn | Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-26T08:10:04 | 2023-12-31T20:15:01 | 2023-12-31T20:15:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RmFWh3nUxPmeQvQSfaqM | Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024? | Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates. | 2022-12-26T08:04:22 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:32:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ixMgOdD1ykTcEUwrIsyg | Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-26T08:04:03 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:06:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-evK7aAHzkCWn9JfJOx99 | Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test by end of 2023? | Resolves YES if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon before the end of 2023. NO otherwise.
I will refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea and reliable media reporting for resolution. I will use local time in Korea.
Background
In 2022, North Korea conducted a large number of ... | 2022-12-26T07:23:09 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:16:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZrukyJm21f3vPuLPcTaO | Will Twitter have fewer active users at EoY 2023 than EoY 2022? | Resolves based on worldwide monetizable daily active usaers (mDAUs). | 2022-12-26T04:08:30 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T18:33:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P779hJchmgGNvUwsPLwd | Will Ted Cruz announce he is running for president before April 1, 2023? | There is no question he is running. He has every reason to think, at least historically, that he is the GOP frontrunner and heir apparent to Donald Trump. I think MAGA has something to say about that, but I also think Ted Cruz will beat the ever living crap out of Ron Desantis toe-to-toe in a long campaign. Will he get... | 2022-12-26T02:17:48 | 2023-03-31T20:59:00 | 2023-04-02T09:07:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C24DxRSKdY77cDiBFW7f | Will Joe Biden announce his bid for reelection before April 1, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-25T21:16:41 | 2023-03-31T21:00:00 | 2023-04-02T09:14:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MhEQVKdLwK8TFsbeolf2 | Will the 3rd intifada begin in 2023? | There have been two major uprisings by the Palestinians against the Israeli's since the 1967 Six Day War. This market will resolve YES if the Palestinians engage in mass protests, civil disobedience and other forms of demonstration against the Israeli occupation resulting in sustained and repeated clashes between prote... | 2022-12-25T21:08:55 | 2024-01-14T20:59:00 | 2024-01-26T19:08:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XGsdcGkdHzae6rPBUwOe | Will the US Senate get rid of the filibuster before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-25T20:23:37 | 2024-03-19T12:37:26 | 2024-03-19T12:37:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Oy67CBKtVoXR4mS7Kcg | Will LastPass shut down or majorly rebrand by end of 2023? | Includes getting bought by another company and rebranded or absorbed into their product. | 2022-12-25T19:45:57 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:08:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dmfwo9OYKNOoukaRaVOV | Will GPT4 cause a similar economic shock to the one from COVID? | This guy thinks so: https://twitter.com/Nick_Davidov/status/1606688723265277952
It's basically this market but much less confusing: https://manifold.markets/RonnyFernandez/will-i-ronny-fernandez-think-that-e
Resolves 9 months after GPT4 is released and broadly available (anyone can access it, but they might have to p... | 2022-12-25T16:04:32 | 2023-12-22T15:59:00 | 2023-12-23T00:19:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nxChfhV36BKVE0xYwvWz | Bitcoin closes next year <15k | 12/31/23
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data#panel | 2022-12-25T15:43:43 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:19:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s09GR2qnt7p36hGN0cqW | Will Lex Fridman interview Trump by 2024? | Related:
[markets] | 2022-12-25T15:42:09 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:40:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ppTngB2vbNEsPM69ZABh | Will SBF be sentenced to 20+ Years? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-25T15:21:29 | 2024-04-09T10:36:26 | 2024-04-09T10:36:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1kDjXF5nXo5xiT9TcOTJ | Will the winner of Eurovision 2023 come from Europe? | While most countries in Eurovision come from Europe, several countries geographically outside Europe participate in the contest, a notable example being Australia.
This market resolves NO if any of the listed countries (4 out of 37) win:
-Armenia
-Australia
-Azerbaijan
-Israel
[image] | 2022-12-25T13:29:45 | 2023-05-14T01:20:00 | 2023-05-14T01:20:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pUDEZM8wokDbaS0SV0IQ | Will Tottenham Hotspur Qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-25T13:15:06 | 2023-05-16T12:38:06 | 2023-05-16T12:38:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-djcZX2zVIhcs3mPWrdru | Will Liverpool FC Qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-25T13:12:46 | 2023-05-26T00:42:39 | 2023-05-26T00:42:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ClyGUpumEBcRdi9UGyLm | Will Manchester United Qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-25T13:11:52 | 2023-05-26T00:41:48 | 2023-05-26T00:41:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kK4YlvhSzRwGi1tc1BMJ | Will GPT-4 still not be safe to use for downstream programs? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #4) | This market is about prediction #4 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction is:
Its natural language output still won’t be something that one ca... | 2022-12-25T13:05:45 | 2024-04-15T15:54:36 | 2024-04-15T15:54:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LVoWpPEdjTv0xgY38UYY | Will GPT-4 still hallucinate facts? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #3) | This market is about prediction #3 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction is:
Fluent hallucinations will still be common, and easily induced, ... | 2022-12-25T13:04:43 | 2023-04-02T16:19:56 | 2023-04-02T16:19:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NzS3KuknP8LGe5Ghcwov | Will GPT-4 be a "bull in a china shop"? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #1) | This market is about prediction #1 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction is:
GPT-4 will still, like its predecessors, be a bull in a china sh... | 2022-12-25T13:02:08 | 2023-04-14T00:00:00 | 2023-05-09T18:03:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v1OUKucxCeISVp1wGqmp | Will US aid to Israel be significantly lower in 2023? | The US gave Israel $3.8 billion in total aid in 2021 and in past years too (I can't get figures on 2022). However, Biden's administration is concerned about Israel's new right-wing religious government.
Will total US aid to Israel, excluding loan guarantees, be $3.04 billion or less in 2023? (20% lower) | 2022-12-25T09:27:17 | 2023-12-21T18:46:56 | 2023-12-21T18:46:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xc0zZDrnhtbKQi8B289Y | Will Ted Cruz win the 2024 US Senate election in Texas? | Resolves YES if Ted Cruz wins the Texas Senate election in November 2024, and NO otherwise. In particular, if Ted Cruz does not run for reelection, this market will resolve NO (after the relevant filing deadline has passed).
This market applies only to the seat currently held by Ted Cruz and not any other Senate seat.... | 2022-12-25T01:59:52 | 2024-11-05T22:02:12 | 2024-11-05T22:02:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sNP3wvKSNhThcaRzMiuV | Will Joe Manchin win the 2024 US Senate election in West Virginia? | Resolves YES if Joe Manchin wins the West Virginia Senate election in November 2024, and NO otherwise. In particular, if Joe Manchin does not run for reelection, this market will resolve NO (after the relevant filing deadline has passed).
This market applies only to the seat currently held by Joe Manchin and not any o... | 2022-12-25T01:57:12 | 2024-03-06T09:33:23 | 2024-03-06T09:33:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7mPJHrqo25TDUD0cfyc4 | Will Finland and Sweden be approved to join NATO by July 1, 2023? | This market will resolve YES if, by the beginning of the day on July 1, 2023, instruments of ratification have been deposited by all parties to the Protocols to the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949 on the Accession of the Republic of Finland and the Kingdom of Sweden, which were signed on July 5, 2022, with the Government... | 2022-12-24T23:17:31 | 2023-06-30T00:17:02 | 2023-06-30T00:17:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RcViFeVUmxsGYmSdX3kv | Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a sentence of over 34 years? |
Close date updated to 2025-11-01 3:59 pm
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 3:59 pm | 2022-12-24T22:41:03 | 2024-03-28T11:43:31 | 2024-03-28T11:43:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JQjRKnB0IIFm3ERaCX6Q | Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a prison sentence of over 25 years? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-24T22:40:37 | 2024-03-28T11:43:49 | 2024-03-28T11:43:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WF1p3GuENO8E5nUjEIHg | Will Messi hold the record for most-liked Instagram post throughout 2023? | Will resolve as NO if at any point in 2023 another account's post surpasses the record set by Messi's most-liked post. | 2022-12-24T22:36:22 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:39:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-j4XjZGOjZCKWYxsm6ve2 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a sentence of over 19 years? |
Close date updated to 2025-12-25 11:00 am | 2022-12-24T22:15:26 | 2024-03-28T11:44:06 | 2024-03-28T11:44:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WFSNAbYz2W7V9i4SHfwy | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | If this market gets fewer than 30 traders, it resolves N/A. Otherwise, it resolves as per the title.
This is an experiment to see whether a "this market is cancelled if I don't get enough traders" clause will be self-defeating and make people less likely to bet. Experiment results: Seems like no, though maybe pickup w... | 2022-12-24T21:47:23 | 2024-11-06T08:58:22 | 2024-11-06T08:58:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MW3kB4kCWmMXLttv4l5S | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2023? 🇺🇦 | Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023.
Resolves NO if Ukraine does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur.
Mar 27, 10:57am: Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2023? → Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2023? 🇺🇦 | 2022-12-24T21:33:21 | 2023-05-13T16:38:47 | 2023-05-13T16:38:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VnHvLufFnHUU7syFXF7H | Will Destiny mention this market on stream by the end of 2023? | Must be this specific market, not Manifold Markets in general. | 2022-12-24T20:50:29 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T13:23:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zoqFNIDPXPyMf1DDN5lg | Will Shivon Zilis be the next CEO of Twitter? | She already works for Musk running Neuralink and they had twins together via surrogate last year. Talk about being "all in"!!!
[image] | 2022-12-24T20:25:57 | 2023-05-12T09:22:25 | 2023-05-12T09:22:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YzGr903Vw0uDv66tlUHX | Will TSMC decide to build a semiconductor plant in Germany? | This market resolves YES, if TSMC publicly announces in 2023 that it decided to build a semiconductor plant in Germany.
https://www.theregister.com/2022/12/23/tsmc_reportedly_looking_at_building/ | 2022-12-23T23:45:14 | 2023-08-28T16:04:17 | 2023-08-28T16:04:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ldQwvvPBaxKVOX50YAwC | Will the average US price of regular gas exceed $4/gallon by April 1st 2023? | As measured by https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price | 2022-12-23T22:27:37 | 2023-04-01T16:59:00 | 2023-04-03T06:37:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rBMSwxy1y06MIKxRxsJ1 | An AI tool will be used in crimes to steal $100M or more, and be reported by a major news outlet before the end of 2023 | It may be multiple crimes, multiple victims, and multiple criminals, but the news must center around a single AI tool used to steal $100M (or equivalent by exchange rates) and be reported by a reputable news source before the end of 2023. it's not required that the criminals be caught or charged, simply that victims ex... | 2022-12-23T16:41:31 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-03T22:52:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JAEwyrjHe1QwxtiPxGpM | Will there be an serious coup attempt in Russia aganist Putin (successful or unsuccessful) by the end of 2023 | In this case, the definition of coup means that someone or a group of people made a serious effort and progress towards removing Putin. It's not just some death threat or protest. Sorry if it's a vague description. | 2022-12-23T13:43:04 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:08:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qKiIlYkMGCeb9mDQeQFy | Will a 'dark version' of an advanced AI chatbot be widely available by 2024? | I mean something like ChatGPT but with few or no ethical restrictions to the content it can produce. | 2022-12-23T12:55:51 | 2023-05-05T18:02:31 | 2023-05-05T18:02:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pDP2Sc6TVu5p4rtCo9uv | Will Alphabet (GOOG) be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world by the end of 2024? | Dec 23, 3:52pm: Will Google be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world by the end of 2024? → Will Alphabet (GOOG) be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world by the end of 2024? | 2022-12-23T12:51:22 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:30:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6zqHxKlw3IEo8nyDls5q | Will the U.K. Conservative Party lose at least three parliamentary seats in by-elections in 2023? | The Conservatives lost two seats in 2022, two in 2021, and none in 2020.
The question is about losses, not net losses (so it doesn't matter if the Conservatives gain seats in other by-elections).
These must be by-elections to the U.K. House of Commons, not any other body.
Losses are counted relative to the last ele... | 2022-12-23T10:12:47 | 2023-10-19T23:45:01 | 2023-10-19T23:45:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u8HTbBCik0XUf9PTukiy | Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll in 2023? | The U.K. Conservative Party last led a national poll in December 2021; since then, the Labour Party have tied or led in every poll. Resolves to YES if a valid poll with the Conservatives leading is published and NO otherwise.
A valid poll must:
– Be a national (Great Britain) Westminster voting intention poll, not a ... | 2022-12-23T10:07:56 | 2024-01-05T03:00:00 | 2024-01-05T11:22:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y2erRq3amBMQiaii7a8r | Will Steve Davis be the next Twitter CEO? | Resolves YES if the next CEO of Twitter, interim or otherwise, is Steve Davis. Resolves NO if someone other than Steve Davis or Elon Musk is CEO of Twitter. Resolves N/A if Elon is still CEO at market close.
Steve Davis is the CEO of The Boring Company. The Information suggests he's in the running: https://www.theinfo... | 2022-12-23T09:40:54 | 2023-06-08T07:54:02 | 2023-06-08T07:54:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8aDY60A3UJDrWzzqi71R | Will Russia legally prohibit using VPN services or personal VPNs before the end of 2023? | This market resolves YES if, before the end of 2023, it becomes illegal in Russia to use a VPN for personal purposes. If it is allowed only with special permission or in a way that potentially makes your traffic more vulnerable, this market also resolves YES.
If you find any ambiguities in the market resolution criter... | 2022-12-23T00:26:55 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:06:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b98of9WhXy0dJzhZlZah | Will Erdogan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | Background: On June 18, 2023, the Turkish general election will be held which will include the first round of the Turkish presidential election. According to opinion polls, Erdogan could lose in the second round against certain potential candidates.
Update: The first round has been moved forward to Sunday, May 14.
Th... | 2022-12-22T22:56:23 | 2023-05-28T15:28:46 | 2023-05-28T15:28:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S3BQDyPC3vlC9z8LR7Jd | Will OpenAI IPO by 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-22T22:29:55 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-03T09:43:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-na1UKDAdTrmYUMPINu6e | Will MrBeast remain the 4th most-subscribed YouTube channel throughout 2023? | Will resolve as NO if at any point in 2023 MrBeast is not the 4th most subscribed to channel. Also resolves as NO if the channel is deleted or banned. | 2022-12-22T22:15:56 | 2023-06-03T01:46:42 | 2023-06-03T01:46:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nxPiSBi32x3oanJZtOa3 | Will OpenAI have >$100 million in revenue in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-22T22:15:36 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T15:08:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0Y9qRfVNtrEiA5PYYvxa | Will Justin Trudeau win the next Canadian federal election to remain Prime Minister of Canada? | Dec 22, 10:09pm: Will Justin Trudeau win the October 2025 election to remain Prime Minister? → Will Justin Trudeau win the October 2025 election to remain Prime Minister of Canada?
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Justin Trudeau has resigned and will not seek reelection.
Resolution: The mark... | 2022-12-22T22:09:41 | 2025-01-06T08:25:04 | 2025-01-06T08:25:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eFkKCkjEPyQjdGOSIu7N | By June 2024, will Musk have sold another Tesla share? | Today, December 22nd 2022, Elon Musk said in a Twitter Spaces that he won't sell another share for 18 to 24 months.
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-wont-sell-tesla-stock-next-year-recession-overdue-2022-12
Musk famously lied about it before.
If Musk files with the SEC for having sold another share from no... | 2022-12-22T16:25:36 | 2024-07-01T17:25:00 | 2024-07-17T08:39:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p4rxBVmoh58MwnMtnP1a | Will online gambling be a notable issue in the 2024 US presidential election debates? | Online gambling is exploding, multiple states are currently considering bills regarding eGambling, and big companies making profit off of the masses is good grist for the political mill.
This will resolve as YES if multiple canidates (pridident or VP) bring up the issue across multiple national debates. It does not m... | 2022-12-22T14:36:14 | 2024-11-03T15:59:00 | 2024-11-04T12:50:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lAA9zDzXAGGsJpvs1QSj | Will either of SBF's parents be charged by the end of 2023 with a crime for their involvement with FTX / Alameda Research? | Will resolve YES if charges are published from official government source or other highly reputable sources on or before Dec 31, 2023.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-12-22T12:19:45 | 2023-12-31T22:10:21 | 2023-12-31T22:10:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF | Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023? | This market resolves YES, if, in my sole opinion, it seems abundantly clear that support for "AI" (an umbrella term for all the technologies, and, frankly marketing/branding associated with the term), becomes politically polarized along left/right lines.
It doesn't matter which side becomes "pro" AI or "anti" AI, just... | 2022-12-22T10:30:27 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-20T23:13:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U7YNHvZlmJtLvO2B4qQI | Is Yitang Zhang's preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros correct? | On 4th of November Yitang Zhang uplodaed a preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros to arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.02515
The market resolves based on the correctness of the preprint. In the case the preprint is (essentially) correct as stated, the market resolves to 100%. However, certain gray area cases are possible, in... | 2022-12-22T07:46:02 | 2025-01-01T04:57:25 | 2025-01-01T04:57:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0J7EQ2Qawbf5fBVvVNpT | Will the average USD/RUB exchange rate be higher than 80 between December 15 and December 21, 2023? | Main source for market resolution:
Google Finance: USD/RUB
Averaging strategy
I will use arithmetic average of the daily exchange rates between December 15 and December 21, 2023.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market.
List of my USD/RUB markets:
>70. Dec. 24 - Dec. 30, 2022
>75. Jan. 22 - Jan. 28, 202... | 2022-12-21T22:45:26 | 2023-12-21T13:59:00 | 2023-12-22T01:35:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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