id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI | Will SBF plead guilty? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-21T22:02:08 | 2023-11-02T17:33:05 | 2023-11-02T17:33:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZkMByssdn2AqYgWBr4KR | Will Scott Alexander go on a livestream with Destiny by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-21T18:45:41 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T13:23:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m2nRgIjToKPifPBOJ2u7 | Will Apple release an AR headset in 2024 | There have been rumors about Apple releasing an AR headset for years. Will 2024 be the year it finally comes out?
https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks
Resolution criteria:
Must actually be available for purchase sometime in 2024. | 2022-12-21T18:14:07 | 2024-02-02T16:48:40 | 2024-02-02T16:48:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C8DKb94Kh7dGRm2IRWN1 | Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023 | There have been rumors about Apple releasing an AR headset for years. Will 2023 be the year it finally comes out?
https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks
Resolution criteria:
Must actually be available for purchase sometime in 2023.
Jan 18, 8:13pm: Will... | 2022-12-21T17:45:01 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:15:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wfULAHTPxM5MsbLybnEy | will m$ be declared by a regulator to be a security, commodity, money transmitter, or any other regulated asset, currency exchange, online gambling service, etc, before 2024? | Resolves YES if any regulatory agency asserts that manifold's currency is "real" in a way that would require making the significant changes that are implied by it being in an existing category of regulated service or asset. The significant changes aren't resolution criteria themselves, only the prerequisite step where ... | 2022-12-21T17:42:13 | 2023-12-31T12:59:00 | 2023-12-31T15:38:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7vIArPIOHYTG4sXdVr21 | Will the top marginal tax rate in the United States be changed by Congressional action before the end of 2023? | Bill must be passed and signed by President before 12/31/2023. Tax rate does not have to go into effect in 2023. | 2022-12-21T10:05:05 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:01:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aoMge52iSdi7LySv03ML | Will the average USD/RUB exchange rate be higher than 80 between March 19 and March 25, 2023? | Main source for market resolution:
Google Finance: USD/RUB
Averaging strategy
I will use arithmetic average of the daily exchange rates between March 19 and March 25, 2023.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market.
List of my USD/RUB markets:
>70. Dec. 24 - Dec. 30, 2022
>75. Jan. 22 - Jan. 28, 2023 (als... | 2022-12-21T07:56:37 | 2023-03-25T13:59:00 | 2023-03-25T23:17:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9C47He5oPMGQZOT8gTO9 | Will Microsoft announce a deal to buy Netflix by end of 2023? | Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, Microsoft and Netflix announce a merger/acquisition deal. Otherwise NO. It is not necessary for the deal to close, this resolves YES as soon as a deal is officially announced.
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/netflix-will-be-next-microsofts-shopping-list-2022-12-20/ predicts th... | 2022-12-21T07:50:42 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:17:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-16LaUKeiVrKMdEhwTCyr | Will Joe Biden face a primary challenge in 2024? | Resolves YES in the case of a serious challenger, who goes on to win at least one state. | 2022-12-21T07:01:20 | 2024-06-19T09:45:39 | 2024-06-19T09:45:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7OWoyIxG3w7YSUdCyKl6 | Will a general election take place in the UK in 2023? | A national general election for a new UK government. The election must complete and the winner announced in 2023. | 2022-12-21T02:37:20 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:03:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZynetznuUT8kwdRqIB6g | Will TikTok be banned in the US before the end of 2023? | Shaan Puri made some 2023 predictions. https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1605277930749579264 | 2022-12-21T00:25:19 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:09:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IxB74SW0mHdGXAYlUtWG | Will OpenAI be valued more than $75 billion before the end of 2023? | Shaan Puri made some 2023 predictions. https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1605277930749579264 | 2022-12-21T00:24:46 | 2024-01-03T10:09:03 | 2024-01-09T20:30:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FQuV2mz9CmuXWMyAKPvq | Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2023 NBA Championship? | Shaan Puri made some 2023 predictions. https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1605277930749579264 | 2022-12-21T00:23:05 | 2023-04-28T19:31:40 | 2023-04-28T19:31:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JqwQWFTt1DcNzSXcr1mr | Will Ethereum ever be below $600 before the end of 2023? | Shaan Puri made some 2023 predictions. https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1605277930749579264 | 2022-12-21T00:21:19 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:09:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Eql9ALv5L2qE62tK8X4S | Will the S&P500 ever be below $2700 before July 1, 2023? | Shaan Puri made some 2023 predictions. https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1605277930749579264
Dec 21, 12:20am: Will the S&P500 be below $2700 by July 1, 2023? → Will the S&P500 ever be below $2700 by July 1, 2023?
Dec 21, 12:20am: Will the S&P500 ever be below $2700 by July 1, 2023? → Will the S&P500 ever be below $2... | 2022-12-21T00:19:38 | 2023-07-01T16:59:00 | 2023-07-01T17:12:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i0m357AtNeyHK7vKO3b6 | Will Russia attack Moldova before the end of 2023? | Resolves to YES if Russian troops or mercenaries paid by Russia attack anything in Moldova before the end of 2023.
Resolves to NO otherwise.
Transnistria will not count for this market as Russian Troops have been there since 1992. Therefore, it is not a change in the current situation.
22 Feb 2023 edit : in case Rus... | 2022-12-20T22:19:26 | 2023-12-31T08:59:00 | 2024-01-01T04:30:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pXhC70Vn4kt8wnQzmYoS | New major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May? | The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive-in-northern-ukraine/
This question asks that Russia or a country allied with Russia to have launched a major military invasion of northern Ukraine by crossing the border into certain regions of Ukra... | 2022-12-20T16:48:27 | 2023-04-30T15:00:00 | 2023-05-10T09:37:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LZuynBJB6zTiKm0HZuDK | 1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023? | This is question #1 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:47 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2023-12-31T21:31:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gs4djHFPEHhwGbOi48sO | 2. Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023? | If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This is question #2 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are availab... | 2022-12-20T14:55:46 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:34:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UsvMATDX96MeE8FmbJ7M | 3. Will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk at the end of 2023? | If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This is question #3 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are availab... | 2022-12-20T14:55:45 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:38:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nTvhFRc9vYyqgNr4yq01 | 4. Will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia at the end of 2023? | If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This is question #4 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are availab... | 2022-12-20T14:55:45 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:21:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5ZwiaRctyYdGPYPftsBA | 5. Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023? | A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without signifi... | 2022-12-20T14:55:44 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:35:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7GJmdx2kAsqTiusZWppI | 6. Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over in 2023? | As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.
This is question #6 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The con... | 2022-12-20T14:55:43 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T12:54:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HRhv92NTikar5GFGckVA | 7. Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023? | We will make this a judgment call but generally resolve positive if at least 25 civilians have to evacuate.
This is question #7 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through... | 2022-12-20T14:55:42 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:39:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JLNUN540nn4lYj6ImKKV | 8. Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023? | Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon is launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon does not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive materi... | 2022-12-20T14:55:42 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:48:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TsIXDQYwigSTivaNLj1B | 9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023? | This is question #9 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:41 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T12:56:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-alPKlzI3ZFoEb9WMRrdr | 10. Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023? | Very loosely, an invasion of a scale such that China most likely intended for it to establish direct control over at least half of the island of Taiwan, whether or not they actually accomplish this.
This is question #10 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are a... | 2022-12-20T14:55:40 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:44:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AQTHVGO9BJUqtGSYINSl | 11. Will any new country join NATO in 2023? | Sweden and Finland completing the accession process would count as new countries.
This is question #11 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral C... | 2022-12-20T14:55:39 | 2023-04-06T17:04:52 | 2023-04-06T17:04:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wcDggyrq6l2O8pbI4tFB | 12. Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran in 2023? | This is question #12 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:39 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:14:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hDlpLoIcY0SNg8YVAxK7 | 13. Will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine in 2023? | We will judge casualties for the Ukraine war based on the sum of the UN estimate of civilian deaths + injuries, plus each side's report of the other side's deaths + injuries. See eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Field_casualties_and_injuries . We reserve the right to change this if one ... | 2022-12-20T14:55:38 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T09:38:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC | 14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023? | Based on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
This is question #14 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:37 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:39:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p2SCRbOTONfqDpXfQPMu | 15. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to selec... | 2022-12-20T14:55:37 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:15:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Tfvb8ofxEUc9u43gmNQj | 16. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to selec... | 2022-12-20T14:55:36 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:37:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT | 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to selec... | 2022-12-20T14:55:35 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:13:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TpD3R0E9ucPPJRXcOmTf | 18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to selec... | 2022-12-20T14:55:34 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:38:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1uBuKrxEyIHXFwvHW2a4 | 19. Will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action in 2023? | This is question #19 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:34 | 2023-07-25T23:23:55 | 2023-07-25T23:23:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UGna3EU4gAKWN8m2lrf8 | 20. Will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court in 2023? | Most likely justices dying or resigning, but court packing would also qualify.
This is question #20 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Code... | 2022-12-20T14:55:33 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:40:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R9ywbZdVqmhJpxpU70xs | 21. Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet in 2023? | Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.
This is question #21 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rul... | 2022-12-20T14:55:32 | 2023-08-25T12:17:55 | 2023-08-25T12:17:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qd8DwR42oOd5kPYYDDUG | 22. Will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating at the end of 2023? | See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ . Currently he is at 51% disapprove, 43% approve, so his approval - disapproval is -8 and this question would resolve as "no".
This is question #22 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available... | 2022-12-20T14:55:30 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T12:54:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fu21p5BIGWCMXwFpk3Rq | 23. Will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges in 2023? | This is question #23 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:29 | 2023-04-06T17:05:01 | 2023-04-06T17:05:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5JnfyAU85tBCgWaNFhoO | 24. Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023? | Qualifying political figures are the President, VP, any Cabinet secretary, any member of Congress, any Supreme Court Justice, or any state governor. Any injury, no matter how slight, counts as a “wound” for this question, as long as the assassin was in our judgment intending to kill their victim.
This is question #24 ... | 2022-12-20T14:55:28 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T12:57:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zOhoQEBRo5d4jTqU0DAb | 25. Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK at the end of 2023? | This is question #25 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:27 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:49:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mmGYG3bMkBXxi3zlAA9u | 26. Will the UK hold a general election in 2023? | This is question #26 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:27 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:50:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-A3Dl8uiHEzrKbK2CEYly | 27. Will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter at the end of 2023? | If there is no publicly available data about ownership stakes, this will resolve positively unless there is some strong reason to think he is no longer majority owner.
This is question #27 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will reso... | 2022-12-20T14:55:26 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:15:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-R0BhowgTSahb3E8wEvtZ | 28. Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | To be resolved using https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ . If not all four quarters of data are available in January 2024 when we resolve this question, we will compare however many quarters of 2023 are available to their 2022 equivalents.
This is question #28 in the Astral Codex T... | 2022-12-20T14:55:25 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-04T00:27:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qqFkvYHzzpTuonxnBWpN | 29. Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | To resolve using https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/
This is question #29 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given thro... | 2022-12-20T14:55:24 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-04T00:28:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mAQgw4OFEIJ6xJ4RxZ8A | 30. Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4% in 2023? | This is question #30 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:23 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:02:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RKvv5gUsL9IebGF5v67i | 31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This is question #31 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:23 | 2023-12-29T15:14:18 | 2023-12-29T15:14:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pDCgifEaspF87XO2xK86 | 32. Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2023? | This is question #32 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:22 | 2023-12-29T13:22:53 | 2023-12-29T13:22:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-858L6WT5Iv3kRltORZpF | 33. Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This is question #33 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:21 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:15:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q2fw3pIf2HagYpvEGzqL | 34. Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | IE will it end the year higher than it began?
This is question #34 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:20 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:13:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ga5bdA6uhlrA5AYEE9Ej | 35. Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | This is question #35 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:20 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:12:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TTMWjfmyZImPvLQkxTbe | 36. Will Tether de-peg in 2023? | We will count Tether as “de-pegged” if it spends at least one full day below 98 cents at any point during 2023.
This is question #36 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given th... | 2022-12-20T14:55:19 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T08:11:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l3K7632Z273RnWmmIgoY | 37. Will the US unemployment rate (now 3.7%) be above 4% in November 2023? | This is question #37 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:18 | 2023-12-08T15:32:47 | 2023-12-08T15:32:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UvlXcPScQ9Ddtr7llnB1 | 38. Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2023? | Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which can be easily exchanged from most major cryptocurrencies on at least on... | 2022-12-20T14:55:17 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:05:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WEVTlUCC986nOdOm0owK | 39. Will OpenAI release GPT-4 in 2023? | This resolves as positive if Open-AI publishes a paper or webpage implicitly declaring GPT-4 “released” or “complete”, showcasing some examples of what it can do, and offering some form of use in some reasonable timescale to some outside parties (researchers, corporate partners, people who want to play around with it, ... | 2022-12-20T14:55:17 | 2023-03-14T10:57:12 | 2023-03-14T10:57:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy | 40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023? | This is question #40 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Added context - Scott said this in a comment:
I'm not an expert on the ... | 2022-12-20T14:55:16 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:34:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tExWFua6ATe52DbjQnme | 41. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023? | See https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet . Scott and Edwin will try to get the top image models of late 2023 to try the specific questions in the bet. If we can’t access the models, then Edwin can use public demos of the image models and his own best guess to resolve... | 2022-12-20T14:55:15 | 2024-01-04T21:53:18 | 2024-01-09T04:31:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WpPlUP5ZLyt4voICWmIH | 42. Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | According to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
This is question #42 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:14 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T12:52:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8xK6Mp3MI5Oxf6LZ2jON | 43. Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023? | This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less than 50%.
This is question #43 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction ... | 2022-12-20T14:55:14 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-04T00:29:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tbPBj3qDZ2RuMezy3VWX | 44. Will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset in 2023? | An AR (Augmented Reality) headset is defined as a wearable where the user can see through it (unlike a VR headset) to the outside world, and it adds new visual information on top of what the viewer sees. It’s not sufficient to have glasses that have functionality like taking pictures, or that modify the visual field wi... | 2022-12-20T14:55:13 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T12:51:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p1MUbBE2xAjfbH1Qrk6p | 45. Will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour at the end of 2023? | Scott Alexander will spend some time January 1 checking whether he can get via his house in Oakland to the Presidio in San Francisco via self-driving car at rush hour. He will probably not actually take the trip, but he will resolve this as positive if it looks like he could take the trip with less than one hour of fig... | 2022-12-20T14:55:12 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:45:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iLhOsXM04Ruz1LtGb63I | 46. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023? | This is question #46 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:11 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:38:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fvG9R0njfMXWvRPClqzK | 47. Will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source in 2023? | A deepfake is defined as any sophisticated AI-generated image, video, or audio meant to mislead. For this question to resolve positively, it must actually harm someone, not just exist. Valid forms of harm include but are not limited to costing someone money, or making some specific name-able person genuinely upset (not... | 2022-12-20T14:55:10 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:46:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vXFfGUyACrhyJmT5GKOv | 48. Will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency in 2023? | For reference, the last three were monkeypox, COVID, and Ebola.
This is question #48 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. | 2022-12-20T14:55:09 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T12:58:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wjd2M3bFReBU5Lmb3v2r | 49. Will AI win a programming competition in 2023? | This will resolve positively if a major news source reports that an AI entered a programming competition with at least two other good participants, and won the top prize. A good participant will be defined as someone who could be expected to perform above the level of an average big tech company employee; if there are ... | 2022-12-20T14:55:08 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-01T13:20:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VOR7QIHvUR8XqwGc6EbI | 50. Will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos" in 2023? | This question resolves positively if some person or group credibly announces the existence of an AI that can generate appropriate videos at least 10 seconds long from arbitrary prompts (similar to the way DALL-E generates images from arbitrary prompts) and provides examples.
This is question #50 in the Astral Codex Te... | 2022-12-20T14:55:08 | 2023-12-31T15:59:59 | 2024-01-04T00:29:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CXKaADYyjd92cJdUWdVG | Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2023 be AI-related? | In 2022, Science Magazine proclaimed the James Webb Space Telescope the greatest scientific breakthrough of the year, in front of AlphaCode, DALL-E 2 & Stable Diffusion, Minerva, and everything else.
The winner for 2021 was AlphaFold.
Will the award for 2023 be given to a machine learning success?
Resolves YES if t... | 2022-12-20T12:47:15 | 2023-12-14T14:18:35 | 2023-12-14T14:18:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wKoeD49zmY2KO7tnqStm | Will the Sun newspaper endorse the Conservative Party at the next UK general election? | Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/Nico/will-the-party-endorsed-by-the-sun
As in the above market, endorsement will be determined by the equivalent of this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
For context, the Sun is a popular British newspaper. I... | 2022-12-20T11:57:55 | 2024-07-03T10:18:30 | 2024-07-03T10:18:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0NI99mW1okcDqrvM3Qti | Will Wikipedia be blocked in Russia before the end of 2023? | Resultion criteria
This question will resolve positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire RU subdomain of Wikipedia website (ru.wikipedia.org) is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days between market start and December 31, 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively.
Author... | 2022-12-20T09:30:35 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:04:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fRs7kFjmUegMHNeuKSid | Will regulated non-medical cannabis be available in Germany by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-20T03:21:44 | 2024-09-22T12:35:35 | 2024-09-22T12:35:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7ebEe9rs84gTifpGV3KQ | Will Rep. George Santos (R-NY) remain in office until the scheduled end of his Congressional term? | Resolves to NO if Santos resigns, dies, is expelled from the House, or leaves his current Congressional seat (New York's third district) for any other reason before his term is scheduled to end in January 2025. Resolves to YES otherwise.
It doesn't matter whether Santos remains in the Republican Party or whether he ru... | 2022-12-20T03:16:18 | 2023-12-01T08:06:35 | 2023-12-01T08:06:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5DW8CcW21RKmTcGLn1dv | Will the Supreme Court universally ban the use of race in University Admissions in in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard? | https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/10/what-to-know-about-harvards-case-in-supreme-court/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/31/us/supreme-court-harvard-unc-affirmative-action.html
Close date updated to 2023-07-03 7:59 am | 2022-12-19T21:23:23 | 2023-06-29T10:27:52 | 2023-07-01T00:19:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f8PUpAASskqwzWhS2jwn | Will Destiny be alive by 2025? | Resolves YES if Steven "Destiny" Bonnell is alive on Jan 1st, 2025 | 2022-12-19T14:50:22 | 2025-01-01T10:00:00 | 2025-01-10T07:54:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VsvoOB6HrCRlr4Q1HPyp | Will OpenAI be acquired by Microsoft by the end of 2024? | Microsoft is already the primary investor and exlusive licensee of OpenAI's GPT-3 technology. | 2022-12-19T14:29:14 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T17:12:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CNb3hGlHCVJMgTulrDKx | Will OpenAI have >$1 billion in revenue in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-19T14:21:27 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:49:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp | Will Lionel Messi retire before the end of 2024? | Argentina skipper Lionel Messi denied rumours of his retirement post the World Cup win against France, saying he wishes to keep playing for his country.
(https://sportstar.thehindu.com/football/fifa-world-cup/news/messi-argentina-no-plan-to-retire-arg-vs-fra-world-cup-final-qatar-wc-2022/article66279720.ece#:~:text=fo... | 2022-12-19T10:26:39 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yeXZwdXRgXLnw3zMqOGb | Will Lionel Messi retire before the end of 2023? | Argentina skipper Lionel Messi denied rumours of his retirement post the World Cup win against France, saying he wishes to keep playing for his country.
(https://sportstar.thehindu.com/football/fifa-world-cup/news/messi-argentina-no-plan-to-retire-arg-vs-fra-world-cup-final-qatar-wc-2022/article66279720.ece#:~:text=fo... | 2022-12-19T10:26:24 | 2023-12-31T10:05:10 | 2023-12-31T10:05:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GDc5y8etI9zlHj42SZbv | Will the percent of the world living in extreme poverty be below 8% in 2023? | 8.44% in 2018 and 10.79% in 2015.
https://ourworldindata.org/poverty#explore-data-poverty | 2022-12-19T08:07:55 | 2024-10-31T21:50:44 | 2024-10-31T21:50:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IOuQcpXpJgc2T13Et2cf | Will US total CO2 emissions be below 5 billion tons in 2023? | 5.12 billion in 2021. 4.82 billion in 2020. 5.35 billion in 2019.
As estimated on our world in data: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-co2-fossil-plus-land-use?country=~USA | 2022-12-19T07:58:17 | 2024-12-01T08:10:42 | 2024-12-01T08:10:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fROcrXsy1QDTvpz6Ll4l | Will global total CO2 emissions be below 40 billion tons in 2023 as estimated by Our World in Data? | 41.06 billion in 2021, 39.32 billion in 2020, 41.64 billion in 2019.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-co2-fossil-plus-land-use?country=~OWID_WRL | 2022-12-19T07:55:02 | 2024-11-22T21:40:10 | 2024-11-22T21:40:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dDFRIGyJ9sPem4WNTM2j | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia before the end of 2023? | This question is inspired by the 2022 market: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-youtube-be-blocked-in-russia-i
Resultion criteria
I will use the same resolution criteria as the 2021 and 2022 questions on Metaculus:
This question will resolve positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, t... | 2022-12-19T05:58:05 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:12:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hVR9iKZ2062ErYPLXY0W | Will Magnus Carlsen play a FIDE-rated game of chess against Hans Niemann by the end of 2023? | In his statement on the Sinquefield Cup Scandal, Magnus Carlsen said "for my part going forward, I don't want to play against people that have cheated repeatedly in the past, because I don't know what they are capable of doing in the future. [...] So far I have only been able to speak with my actions, and those actions... | 2022-12-18T23:37:59 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:33:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e90a9TbvFLODkOur1zBl | Will Lex Fridman be the next CEO of Twitter after Elon Musk? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-18T21:11:00 | 2023-06-09T19:49:58 | 2023-06-09T19:49:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V5IJ7tmEmrsGMXfksDzG | Will Jared Kushner be the next CEO of Twitter after Elon Musk? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-18T21:10:33 | 2023-06-12T11:54:53 | 2023-06-12T11:54:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DSgSiQHr1l5cwC20Ao30 | Will Elon Musk step down from being head of Twitter before the end of 2023? | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097
[image] | 2022-12-18T21:01:19 | 2023-06-12T11:55:03 | 2023-06-12T11:55:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LLdCr1phtxWEYKbPdaZw | Will Lex Fridman become CEO of Twitter before March 1st 2023? | Resolves according to reliable sources.
[image]Dec 18, 4:08pm: Will Lex Friedman become CEO of Twitter before March 1st 2023? → Will Lex Fridman become CEO of Twitter before March 1st 2023? | 2022-12-18T16:06:51 | 2023-03-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-01T20:22:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OVMheVp5EpaA6xT0DVAQ | Will Musk actually abide by the results of his Twitter poll on stepping down? | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097?t=dT8tP9Mn0MP2zFjIBRV5Hw&s=19
Close date updated to 2024-11-30 6:59 pm | 2022-12-18T16:06:50 | 2023-06-10T14:42:30 | 2023-06-10T14:42:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T5peleFKczlNTvfRuFbX | Will Elon step down as head of Twitter? | Resolves to YES if Elon steps down as per the results in the linked poll: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-12-18T15:58:50 | 2023-05-12T14:14:16 | 2023-05-12T14:14:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6L7A2jjvxCHu8L5EdYp2 | Will Belarus begin a land invasion of Ukraine from the north by the end of 2023? | (It must be an invasion from the current Belarussian-Ukrainian border, so sending troops to the current eastern front on the Russian border would not count, and Belarussian troops must make up a significant portion of the invasion force) | 2022-12-18T15:56:29 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:45:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BMMgraYfRxbrHCu9pnvK | Will any of the Big Four of the FTX case be confirmed dead by the end of 2023? | "Big four" meaning one of:
Sam Bankman Fried
Caroline Ellison
Nishad Singh
Gary Wang
"Confirmed dead" meaning truthfully and credibly reported dead by any source that Dean Valentine subjectively deems "credible" - this does not have to be a major media outlet.
This market will be resolved quickly after the end of... | 2022-12-18T13:30:02 | 2023-12-31T22:00:00 | 2024-01-01T08:31:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CKlw1008Etabljwlr6Mm | Will there be at least three new high profile AI systems unveiled by the end of 2023? | "High profile" here means "Lots of people are talking about them, experimenting with them, and speculating on what they mean for the world". If there are long Wikipedia pages about them or they're filling up my Twitter feed, they're probably "high profile" enough.
GPT-3, DALL-E 2, LaMDA, Stable Diffusion, and ChatGPT ... | 2022-12-18T12:23:17 | 2023-12-29T22:51:55 | 2023-12-29T22:51:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MOrNWQR6sTWXsILPKUU7 | Will Messi retire before the end of 2023? | If Messi announces retirement after his contract with PSG ends, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise, market resolves to NO. | 2022-12-18T11:30:38 | 2023-12-31T10:57:47 | 2023-12-31T10:57:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XtD1M87hEkmLVrjxcCe9 | Will Destiny Reach 1,000,000 Subscribers In 2023 | The question resolves to 'yes' if Destiny's main Youtube channel reaches, or exceeds, 1,000,000 subscribers by 2024-01-01
If his channel gets banned/deleted before reaching 1M the question will also resolve 'no' | 2022-12-18T08:10:43 | 2023-12-31T16:00:00 | 2023-12-31T18:55:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4rR1RD9tsejj3JGJhISB | Will the WHO declare any new public health emergencies of international concern in 2023? | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern
Dec 18, 10:24am: Will the WHO declare any public health emergencies of international concern in 2023? → Will the WHO declare any new public health emergencies of international concern in 2023? | 2022-12-18T05:10:30 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T08:15:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3 | Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump is arrested before January of 2024
Update: For clarification, the use of the word arrested is the legal term in the jurisdiction in which the event occurs. I'm trying to gather the definitions from each state. If you would like to assist in finding references for each state, that's helpful... | 2022-12-18T03:34:21 | 2023-04-04T10:53:10 | 2023-04-04T10:53:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p81ymO82Hu1JT13tDlrV | Will the Everyday Astronaut go to the moon by the end of 2024? | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFIuzormhYU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DearMoon_project | 2022-12-17T21:36:20 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-02T12:26:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WyoazzQDrj8ttVec23jZ | Will Twitter pay fines in the EU by Jan 1, 2024? | There has been a lot of discussion in the media about the EU using the "Media Freedom Act" to punish Elon Musk's Twitter. I just discovered that this Act has not been made into EU law yet.
Will Twitter pay any fines in the EU by Jan 1, 2024?
Resolves YES as soon as proof is posted to the comments. Resolves midnight o... | 2022-12-17T19:57:40 | 2024-01-01T15:00:00 | 2024-01-01T16:17:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2uWn8Hiouck45Iw8tlTo | Will EU charges be brought against Twitter by July 1, 2023? | There has been a lot of discussion in the media about the EU using the "Media Freedom Act" to punish Elon Musk's Twitter. I just discovered that this Act has not been made into EU law yet.
Will the EU find a basis to bring charges against Twitter by July 1, 2023?
Resolves midnight on July 2nd Brussels time if NO, on... | 2022-12-17T19:45:47 | 2023-07-01T16:00:00 | 2023-07-07T13:42:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G6p5tsShi3hl9eJ4LFFe | Trump created his own NFT. Will the floor price of the Trump Digital Trading Cards NFT collection be above 1.0 ETH before the end of 2023? | New York Times article about Trump's NFT
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/us/politics/trump-nft-trading-cards-superhero.html
Resolution according to Open Sea's data
https://opensea.io/collection/trump-digital-trading-cards
Relevant markets:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/trump-created-his-own-nft-what-will
| 2022-12-17T18:37:19 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:26:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
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