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forecasting

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mani-xlwwre0YKb0XZ6URhWyS
Will there be more searches for GPT-4 than for ChatGPT on any day before July 2023?
I will use google trends to resolve the market https://trends.google.com.br/trends/explore?hl=pt-BR&tz=180&date=today+1-m&q=ChatGPT,GPT-4&sni=6
2022-12-17T17:23:56
2023-06-30T19:59:00
2023-07-01T08:37:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TIsnxXr12SjY3mInqEnc
Will Greta Gerwig's Barbie be rated at least 8.0 in IMDB at the end of 2023?
Closes by the end of 2023 at Yes if Barbie is rated 8.0 or above, and at No if not IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1517268
2022-12-17T15:16:25
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2023-12-31T21:07:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eqif7qFvcdmzRDsTefvC
Will Destiny get banned on Twitter again by April 1st, 2023?
Resolves YES if a Twitter account that is known to be ran by Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II) is banned or suspended by April 1st, 2023 for any reason (including ban evasion). Destiny has a history of creating accounts and getting banned for ban evasion after a while (some last much longer than others). Today (12/17/2022) Destiny posted in dgg chat that he will make a new twitter account. (12/18/2022) Destiny has created a new twitter account, DestiDarko
2022-12-17T15:12:26
2023-04-01T00:00:00
2023-04-01T10:46:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oGsxnHtk3LqXUUw33GbE
Has Tesla been grossly misrepresenting the range of it's semi truck?
PepsiCo has made strange comments this week following delivery of the trucks that it is capable of 400 mile range hauling potato chips but only 100 mile range hauling soda. Tesla has claimed 400 mile range loaded to approximately 85,000 lbs so why does the type of cargo effect this? Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-12-17T10:08:32
2024-04-30T20:59:00
2024-08-11T11:04:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5Hr8o1S42nnwYD1eaBlP
Will Twitter declare bankruptcy while Elon Musk is CEO?
This market will resolve no if Elon Musk steps down as CEO and Twitter hasn't filed for bankruptcy. Dec 17, 11:30am: Will twitter declare bankruptcy while Elon Musk is CEO? → Will Twitter declare bankruptcy while Elon Musk is CEO?
2022-12-17T08:28:29
2023-06-06T16:33:14
2023-06-06T16:33:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fgRKxwOx2Ov1dcjCEkLH
Will Apple surpass $3 trillion market cap anytime before the end of 2023?
https://companiesmarketcap.com/apple/marketcap/
2022-12-17T07:50:20
2023-07-31T17:37:28
2023-07-31T17:37:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CM8Z7X2EKvyRlxfbCyV0
Will Sonia Sotomayor retire from the Supreme Court before January 2025?
Dec 17, 10:49am: Will Sonya Sotomayor retire from the Supreme Court before January 2025? → Will Sonia Sotomayor retire from the Supreme Court before January 2025?
2022-12-17T07:47:45
2025-01-01T07:47:00
2025-01-01T08:33:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Cc6bQTBOtcb4l9tIH1DM
Will Elon Musk be indicted for any crimes before the end of 2023?
Resolves to YES if Musk is officially indicted. Resolves to NO if only an investigation is launched against him but no indiction, or if nothing happens. Dec 17, 10:45am: Will Elon Musk be federally indicted by any reasons before the end of 2023? → Will Elon Musk be indicted for any crimes before the end of 2023?
2022-12-17T07:44:43
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T06:33:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aAEaRtv6OO5XsOUxuS9b
Will Rich Campbell go live on Twitch...?
Will Richwcampbell go live on twitch before March 8, 2023 (International Women's Day) , after the SA accusation from @Azalialexi Accusation: https://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1ss6utn Twitter: https://twitter.com/Azalialexi richwcampbell: https://www.twitch.tv/richwcampbell/schedule Last live December 10th. Twitter: https://twitter.com/RichWCampbell edit dec 21. Destinys take on the situation: Rich Campbell DMs Leak, Gets Fired From OTK Instantly still no word from Rich edit dec 23. https://twitter.com/manuretruck/status/160617045871326822 Mirror to tweet above: https://web.archive.org/web/20221223180026/https://twitter.com/manuretruck/status/160617045871326822 Screenshots in order, from tweet above: https://imgur.com/a/aLbmzgI Close date updated to 2023-03-08 5:59 am
2022-12-17T01:17:40
2023-03-07T20:59:00
2023-03-08T04:50:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TGXInmvJWnVUwV5a7WCW
Will human brains be weaker than AI in every way by the end of 2024?
This is a duplicate of @/L/will-human-brains-be-weaker-than-ai, but for 2024. It resolves according to my interpretation of the same criteria laid out there, which I have copied here: Resolves yes if and only if human brains are unambiguously weaker than AI in every domain. Resolution process: to propose YES resolution, comment with a reference to an AI that appears to be stronger than humans in every way. to counterpropose NO resolution, comment with a domain the given AI appears to be weaker-than-human within. I or other commenters check if the AI can prove its capability in the challenged domain. If no counterproposed NO can be found that the AI cannot disprove, the question resolves yes. This does not require AI to have replaced humans in practical tasks, only that there is at least one single integrated AI that can in fact beat us at absolutely everything. Note: this includes understanding the human experience. An AI that passes this test would understand humans very dramatically better than most of us understand ourselves, since it'd need to be able to empathize with us across substrates. Note #2: This is not a per-watt question. The AI is allowed to use arbitrarily much more compute than humans to do the task, as long as it can produce more accurate results than the best trained human in a given task. This will likely require the AI to be one that does active exploration.
2022-12-16T20:50:35
2025-01-01T00:00:00
2025-01-02T12:23:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hv9i2antpAfxrXVm0MYm
Will there be more hurricanes in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season than in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season?
This question covers the Atlantic hurricane season beginning on June 1, 2023, and ends on November 30, 2023, and resolves YES if there are more than eight hurricanes (the number in 2022).
2022-12-16T18:16:35
2023-12-31T12:00:00
2023-12-31T12:44:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5m4OS1p0zJk7xb9kXZ11
Will Apple's first AR/VR headset have an outward facing screen that shows your eyes?
This has been rumoured for much of this year: https://www.imore.com/apples-mixed-reality-headset-could-have-external-screen-show-people-your-facial-expressions This market won't resolve until either Apple announces an AR, VR, or MR head-mounted display, or they don't release one before 2030. It resolves YES if such a display has a screen on the outside of the device, facing the outside world, that shows your eyes (or a reproduction of them) to other people around you. It resolves N/A if Apple doesn't announce an AR/VR/MR headset at all by 2030, or if something else prevents Apple from doing so (such as Apple ceasing to exist). It resolves to NO in all other circumstances, including if the first AR or VR device Apple announces has a fully transparent display with no outward-facing screen, and if Apple announces a device with an outward-facing screen but no built-in feature to show your eyes. This market will resolve on that device's announcement, not its release.
2022-12-16T15:55:40
2023-06-05T12:57:12
2023-06-05T12:57:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-V21iwxavu1Zw2G4QjGvz
In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will the average response among all entrants be within the top 10% of entrants if scored as an entrant itself?
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest
2022-12-16T13:25:10
2024-03-31T13:21:53
2024-03-31T13:21:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UPUytGuLxcbmpR2kecbE
Will any Manifold market about Magic: The Gathering get at least 100 traders by the end of 2023?
https://manifold.markets/group/magic-the-gathering
2022-12-16T12:23:58
2023-09-09T21:25:21
2023-09-09T21:25:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PsrwzT6FIBOTQvrcLe4L
Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% in his first term?
This market will resolve YES if Biden's approval rating as measured by FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) reaches 50% before the end of his first term, and resolves NO otherwise. The last full day of Biden's first term is January 19, 2025, unless he leaves office before then. If FiveThirtyEight stops measuring Biden's approval rating, I'll go with a suitable alternate measure if that exists, and otherwise resolve N/A. Related markets: https://manifold.markets/Hamm103/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-rea https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-bidens-approval-ever-exceed-50 https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/on-election-day-what-will-538-say-j
2022-12-16T11:17:28
2025-01-19T20:59:00
2025-01-19T21:42:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JxXvTrSyADLdr3mu0nee
Will Sam Trabucco (former co-CEO of Alameda Research) be arrested before March 31st 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-16T10:28:18
2023-03-31T21:59:00
2023-03-31T22:16:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rr3JiEkQCH07Yq51Vejw
Will Émile Torres be noticeably better calibrated in their criticisms of EA/Longtermism by July 2023?
This market has a 1 week grace period where terms can change ie, by July will there be consensus that Émile Torres describes criticisms more appropriately in terms of magnitude?
2022-12-16T05:33:24
2023-07-19T14:58:55
2023-07-19T14:58:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-C7F0sw3cbVaRgs62QgSG
Will Substack launch an ad network in 2023?
From Casey Newton's 13 Predictions for 2023: "Substack will launch an ad network. The Rebooting’s Brian Morrissey likes to say that the first step toward building an ad network is to first say you’ll never do it. Substack, the service on which Platformer is hosted, long ago took such a step. But so much has changed since then! One, the company has struggled to grow revenues fast enough to raise a Series B round of fundraising at its desired valuation; limiting its revenue opportunities to subscriptions has meant depriving itself of the other, typically larger stream of revenue in every big publisher’s arsenal. Two, Substack got really good at growing free email lists this year with its recommendations feature — but not at converting those free readers to paid. The company now almost certainly has millions of email addresses at its disposal, but it makes money only from a small fraction of them. The company’s need to grow is too existential, and the solution too obvious, for Substack not to act. By the end of 2023, Substack will have introduced or say it is working on a native advertising solution."
2022-12-16T05:28:28
2023-12-31T20:10:12
2023-12-31T20:10:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xWt3w7sLXe6tSA3I2IbR
Will Destiny change his main platform (Youtube) by the end of 2023 ?
Resolves Yes if: -Destiny gets banned on Youtube and streams somewhere else -Destiny decides to move somewhere else (e.g. he gets unbanned from Twitch and goes back) -Destiny streams on multiple platforms at the same time and gets more concurrent viewers somewhere other than Youtube If Destiny does any of these things, but by the end of the 2023 he goes back to Youtube this will resolve as a No.
2022-12-16T04:04:25
2023-12-30T15:00:00
2024-01-01T15:28:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SMIGkQ9ckwkgGXuEo4qZ
Will Twitter acquire Substack by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-16T01:06:12
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:00:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hBPV82Xn79qNWvNqM6m5
Will the Fed raise benchmark rates in May?
Jan/Feb 31-1 March 21-22 May 2-3
2022-12-15T22:00:18
2023-05-03T10:00:00
2023-05-03T11:01:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YOFT4odT4fUkm8bSNGzZ
Will Russia begin a major new offensive towards Kyiv before 1 March 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-15T20:49:16
2023-03-01T15:59:00
2023-03-05T13:15:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mtu58bWjzESTd1aHIdmA
Will Joe Biden's Approval Rating Reach 50% or Higher?
Specifically: Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% or higher at some point during the rest of his presidency? This market will either resolve when Biden's approval rating hits 50%, or when Biden stops being the president. I will be referring only to FiveThirtyEight's calculation of Biden's approval rating. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ very specific details: If, from the moment of this market's creation onwards, FiveThirtyEight calculates Biden's approval rating to be at or greater than 50%, then this market will resolve as YES. If Biden ceases to be the President, then this market will resolve as NO. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the Associated Press has not called someone other than Biden as the winner of the 2024 Presidential election, and if the 2028 Presidential election has not yet begun, then this market will resolve as N/A. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the Associated Press has called someone other than Biden as the winner of the 2024 Presidential election, then this market will resolve as NO. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the 2028 Presidential election has begun, then this market will resolve as NO. Close date updated to 2024-02-01 6:59 pm Close date updated to 2025-01-20 12:00 pm
2022-12-15T20:26:07
2025-01-20T09:00:00
2025-01-31T23:29:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5KJNvnirFhYFGPAUsdNC
Will Elon Musk make Lex Fridman Twitter's CEO by the end of 2023?
This market will resolve to YES if Lex Fridman becomes Twitter's CEO (or co-CEO) by the end of 2023.
2022-12-15T16:49:46
2023-12-31T13:50:10
2023-12-31T13:50:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0YiPsYmQUEQ6hnDSJf2E
Will DeSantis crush Trump?
>50% more delegates,
2022-12-15T13:08:54
2024-05-03T16:35:02
2024-05-03T16:35:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-juVIMlRXcqV8aanZ7HM3
Will Trump crush DeSantis?
>50% more delegates,
2022-12-15T13:00:27
2024-05-03T14:48:46
2024-05-03T14:48:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XF67fkHfbowCjkQ5bwGX
Will Elon Musk sell more than $1Bln of Tesla stock during Q1 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-15T09:16:12
2023-04-16T23:18:41
2023-04-17T07:43:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NpFOADZWZoczKIjoLPnl
Will anyone profit by at least M$200,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count. Simlar markets on various profit values: M$10,000 M$15,000 M$20,000 M$30,000 M$50,000 M$75,000 M$100,000 M$150,000 M$200,000
2022-12-14T18:24:49
2023-04-03T04:01:32
2023-04-03T04:01:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-x6pS4F8oCmoKhr3Dc53s
Will anyone profit by at least M$150,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count. Simlar markets on various profit values: M$10,000 M$15,000 M$20,000 M$30,000 M$50,000 M$75,000 M$100,000 M$150,000 M$200,000
2022-12-14T18:24:36
2023-04-03T04:01:22
2023-04-03T04:01:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NTepuNNpCKvH3CCU7xTN
Will anyone profit by at least M$100,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$100,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets. Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count. Simlar markets on various profit values: M$10,000 M$15,000 M$20,000 M$30,000 M$50,000 M$75,000 M$100,000 M$150,000 M$200,000
2022-12-14T18:24:21
2023-04-03T04:01:14
2023-04-03T04:01:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LYhcMqhDA1EHJBzizIch
Will Tesla surpass $1 trillion market cap anytime before the end of 2023?
https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/
2022-12-14T17:31:08
2023-12-30T13:27:43
2023-12-30T13:27:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Xw73LT0vOR8DWpTl0j7U
Will Ukraine control any territory near Azov sea by end of March 2023?
Resolves YES if Ukraine controls any territory within 20km of Azov sea coast for at least 3 days by the end of March. For the purposes of this question, Molochnyi Lyman and Syvash lake are not considered to be part of Azov sea, but Utliuts'kyi Lyman is.
2022-12-14T15:50:37
2023-03-31T20:59:00
2023-04-08T22:03:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gdXiPGTApxCs38N8udNz
Will Apple allow alternative app stores by the start of 2024?
Apple recently announced that they will allow third-party app stores by the start of 2024, in accordance with EU regulations coming into effect then. https://9to5mac.com/2022/12/13/apple-alternative-app-stores-iphone/ This market will resolve YES if I can download a third-party app store and then install an app from that app store on my iPhone, and NO otherwise. A situation where the apps need to be signed by Apple would still resolve YES, as long as the alternative app stores are still largely independent. For example, if there's a flat "verification" fee that the developer of an app on the app store pays, but sales from the alternate app store do not go to Apple, that would count as third-party. The alternate app store needs to be free to download and installable without having a separate computer (since many iPhone users do not have separate computers). My iPhone is not jailbroken and will not be jailbroken; this needs to be a feature supported by Apple. I will run the most up-to-date non-beta iOS version though. In the event that it is region locked to the EU, and I am not in the EU, I will also resolve this YES if someone who is based in the EU provides concrete proof of this being possible (eg. a video of it being done). The same goes if this is limited to some other region, such as China or India. This market can resolve YES early, in the case where I can successfully do this before the start of 2024.
2022-12-14T15:45:40
2023-12-31T11:31:13
2023-12-31T11:31:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Kk3ACdM27ifS2gAMQcXG
Will the US ban TikTok in the US by EOY 2023?
This market will resolve positively if the US government bans TikTok, through laws, regulation, executive action, or something else, provided a branch of the US government does it. If companies (e.g. Apple or Google) don't actually comply, that will not stop this market from resolving positively.
2022-12-14T12:35:15
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T07:08:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T
Binance collapses before the end of 2023
Gracefully winding down doesn't count, it must be somewhat catastrophic, similar to FTX. Happening unexpectedly in a short time frame, leaving other people at a disadvantage, etc.
2022-12-14T11:32:35
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-01T22:41:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BMG4vVsTBwGJFy2KKNkh
Will SBF be offered a deal?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-14T10:31:37
2023-11-02T17:44:40
2023-11-02T17:44:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NUsTLpOtZUWaPThh63QS
Will the US government shut down on Oct 1st, 2023 because Congress fails to pass a budget?
I'll update the dates if the deadline changes, but I believe that's currently the projected deadline.
2022-12-14T09:26:50
2023-10-01T16:59:00
2023-10-05T19:05:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bWtHLGxfFzB8QKexyUOJ
Will China host the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Resolves YES if China is selected as the 2030 World Cup host or co-host in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024. Current FIFA rules prevent Asian Football Confederation nations from hosting any World Cup until 2034, but: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2019/06/05/fifa-open-china-bid-2030-world-cup-blow-gb-ireland-hopes/
2022-12-14T09:16:27
2023-10-04T08:50:45
2023-10-04T08:50:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YutuQyIiqK7v5X9N5C7B
Will Morocco host the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Resolves YES if Morocco is selected as the 2030 World Cup host in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024. Also resolves YES if Morocco co-hosts the World Cup (for example with Tunisia and Algeria, or with Portugal and Spain)
2022-12-14T09:12:30
2023-10-04T08:51:42
2023-10-04T08:51:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-19RsVBPJlzZjUFmo0V3J
Will Spain and Portugal co-host the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Resolves YES if the Spain and Portugal are selected as the 2030 World Cup hosts in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024. Ukraine might possibly join their bid and host games from the group stages: https://theathletic.com/3655578/2022/10/05/ukraine-2030-world-cup-bid/ If Ukraine or another country (for example Morocco) joins or not, won't affect the resolution of this market.
2022-12-14T09:12:18
2023-10-04T08:48:40
2023-10-04T08:48:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mvECtfx19OvsigAq5csm
Will South America host the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Resolves YES if countries from South America are selected as the 2030 World Cup hosts in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024. Currently, there are two possible bids: Argentina–Chile–Paraguay-Uruguay and Colombia–Ecuador–Peru. Resolves YES if either of those bids or another bid including South American countries is selected during the 2024 Congress.
2022-12-14T09:12:07
2023-10-04T08:47:57
2023-10-04T08:47:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JO4igglBL4kMoj0q6KNq
Will the party endorsed by the Sun newspaper win the next UK general election?
For these purposes, win means largest party. As determined by Wikipedia entry (here is the 2019 equivalent: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election ) In case of no endorsement, market resolves N/A Dec 14, 4:27pm: Will the party endorsed by the Sun win the next UK general election? → Will the party endorsed by the Sun newspaper win the next UK general election?
2022-12-14T04:30:12
2024-07-04T22:15:34
2024-07-04T22:15:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-trG8jU6eb9l7lsW2RTnQ
Will TSMC announce they are building a fab in Indiana before the end of 2023?
Doesn't matter what kind of chips it makes, just that it's TSMC direct investment in building and operating the facility. Indiana governor visited right around same time as Arizona governor where they recently announced $40mm direct investment, perhaps the largest in the history of the US.
2022-12-13T20:47:33
2023-12-31T20:43:23
2023-12-31T20:43:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wufJm53wgghFxOB1U71Q
Will Anthropic Return The Funds they Received from SBF?
According to https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/29/anthropics-quest-for-better-more-explainable-ai-attracts-580m , Anthropic raised 580M led by SBF in 2022. This market resolves true if either of the following occurs: Anthropic is ordered by a court to pay back the 580M investment or whatever cash is remaining Anthropic buys back their equity from SBF This market resolves automatically to NO if such an order or transaction has not taken place by June 03, 2023 4:20pm. Relevant links for discussion: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fraudulentconveyance.asp
2022-12-13T15:06:19
2023-06-03T16:20:00
2023-06-03T18:17:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-luBoEQfn4D4vd1AJbIVw
Will ByteDance surpass $1Trillion market cap by the end of 2023?
Dec 13, 5:17pm: Will ByteDance surpass $1Bln market cap by the end of 2023? → Will ByteDance surpass $1Trillion market cap by the end of 2023?
2022-12-13T14:16:44
2023-12-31T20:20:47
2023-12-31T20:20:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ
Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?
Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts. Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count. Any release before the end of March 31st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.). Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count. Resolution based on my best judgment. Dec 14, 5:46pm: Will GPT4 be released before March 31th, 2023? → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023? Feb 4, 12:50pm: Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023? → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?
2022-12-13T10:53:24
2023-03-14T16:21:46
2023-03-14T16:21:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eJuaTlWQFCivv74AQdO1
Will $50mm worth of SBF political donations be clawed back or voluntarily returned by the end of 2023?
As I understand it these are among the most likely funds to be returned during bankruptcy proceedings. Marco Rubio I believe has already returned his contribution from SBF.
2022-12-13T10:37:34
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:07:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-j9gOp4AvbXpHmzJJUWIp
Will Tesla trade below $100 at any point during 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-13T10:08:40
2023-12-30T09:46:32
2023-12-30T09:46:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5LblQdc7VI3SzxEKfUIF
Will Kosovo and Serbia go to war before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-12T23:40:23
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2023-12-31T22:07:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S0yDK8VSiedbJObDH7G4
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky make a tweet about the sci-fi movie M3gan before the end of 2023?
Retweets don't count. The tweet does not have to mention M3gan by name, so long as it is either 1, unambiguously a reference to M3gan, or 2, later clarified by Eliezer Yudkowsky to be a reference to M3gan.
2022-12-12T23:21:48
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T17:35:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jN256427BUcC8Eouwn4Q
Will Vladimir Zelenskyy visit the White House in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-12T22:07:21
2023-09-21T12:42:03
2023-09-21T12:42:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dqlGytAOyI7sAnYtkQdG
Will CZ (CEO of Binance) be indicted in the US before the end of 2023?
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/12/12/us-prosecutors-look-to-charge-binance-and-cz-for-possible-money-laundering-violations-reuters/ Resolves to YES if CZ is indicted in the US anytime before 12/31/23 Resolves to NO if CZ is not indicted in the US before 12/31/23
2022-12-12T20:07:17
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T20:40:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3O6BVoUKU0oeSiAfU7Tc
Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-12T17:28:01
2023-09-30T17:19:09
2023-09-30T17:19:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4PG1NBXdql5NsGIlZy8v
Does Gary Wang get >=1 years sentence?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GeorgeVii/does-gary-wang-get-4-years-sentence) Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-12-12T17:21:14
2024-12-03T11:12:22
2024-12-03T11:12:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-16FLwUCPAqQGBBcaAyxx
Does Caroline Ellison get >=1 years sentence?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GeorgeVii/does-caroline-ellison-get-4-year-se) Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-12-12T17:20:44
2024-09-24T15:54:13
2024-09-24T15:54:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wUK9kDHVfviXNeSnG3Wu
Does Caroline Ellison get >4 year sentence?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GeorgeVii/does-caroline-ellison-get-1-years-s) Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-12-12T16:54:52
2024-09-24T15:54:48
2024-09-24T15:54:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M1q78hjjCDi2kfR6cQrN
Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?
That is, a sentence >=50 years Dec 22, 5:02pm: Does SBF get a life-sentence? → Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?
2022-12-12T16:53:19
2024-03-28T13:05:38
2024-03-28T13:05:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8BxYIaXlMfMDAKAqJkC1
Conditional on legislative approval, will the Chilean people approve the new proposal for a constitution?
Update: This market resolves strictly according to the official results of the Chilean National Plebiscite on Sunday 17th of December. The major political parties of Chile just reached an agreement to draft a new constitution written by a mixed body of experts and elected constituents. Assuming this agreement will be formalized by law, what's the probability that this new proposal gets approved by the Chilean people? If the process doesn't get approved by congress or otherwise the final vote doesn't happen, this will resolve to N/A.
2022-12-12T16:46:37
2023-12-18T09:00:00
2023-12-18T09:11:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SZFOQoUOAJRHIs0SQEI4
Will the UK sign a free trade agreement with India by the end of 2023?
The sixth round of negotiations under the current Tory government has recently commenced.
2022-12-12T15:50:17
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:00:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-h94d1IBfS6L3yH8d88XH
Will S&P500 close above 4400 at the end of 2023?
Will S&P500 close above 4400 at the end of 2023? Resolution according to Yahoo!Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC&.tsrc=fin-srch
2022-12-12T15:36:02
2023-12-30T09:55:14
2023-12-30T09:55:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lPK2PZrNlNwztYEg1emt
Will Russia prohibit leaving the country for men of military age before the end of 2023?
This market resolves "YES" if Russia closes its borders to the majority of men of military age for at least two weeks before the end of 2023.
2022-12-12T12:37:54
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2023-12-31T22:33:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Y5kf9rqbMEDZPMWpnJxa
Will George R. R. Martin finish writing Winds of Winter by May 31, 2023?
Resolves to YES if he publically announces this by the first week of June (although I can change this if people have compelling arguments for why this doesn't correlate well enough to the core question).
2022-12-12T11:47:52
2023-06-07T11:30:00
2023-06-07T12:07:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Q1bciMf246qbVP2eEMTl
Will Russia legally end the ongoing military mobilization before the end of 2023?
Background At the end of October 2022, Russian officials announced that partial mobilization was over. However, it has not been ended by decree or any other legal act. This fact has several legal ramifications. Already mobilized conscripts are not allowed to resign. Several Russian laws contain the legal concept of a "period of mobilization" that sometimes toughens the punishment. Finally, there will be fewer legal obstacles to starting a "second wave" of mobilization. Resolution criteria This market resolves "YES" if, before the market close, Russia legally ends its "mobilization period" for at least two weeks, meaning there is a decree (or any other legal act) ending the ongoing mobilization and no new decrees starting a new mobilization are issued in two weeks after that.
2022-12-12T10:05:18
2023-12-31T13:59:00
2023-12-31T22:35:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-duK5XhOr3l2pYy3I0peL
Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2024?
I have never seen someone so full of shit in my life as Elon Musk these past six months. When you behave like that the people around you start behaving like that. Eventually someone is committing fraud. I suspect charges are coming, do you agree? Dec 12, 11:09am: Will any of Elon Musk's company's be charged with fraud by the end of 2023? → Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2023?
2022-12-12T09:46:28
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T17:05:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gBPRThy00I8Bi3nJHmOF
Will John Roberts retire/die/leave the US supreme court before 2025?
Related markets: Sotomayor: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-sotomayor-leave-the-supreme-co Thomas: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr Alito: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
2022-12-12T09:44:25
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-02T14:02:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lY2gkwFtqzavqd4PVMwY
Will Vladimir Putin relocate OUT of Russia before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-12T09:41:11
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T06:48:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vpCcCwRwPcth8WoWOkTJ
Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2023?
I have never seen someone so full of shit in my life as Elon Musk these past six months. When you behave like that the people around you start behaving like that. Eventually someone is committing fraud. I suspect charges are coming, do you agree? Dec 12, 11:09am: Will any of Elon Musk's company's be charged with fraud by the end of 2023? → Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2023?
2022-12-12T08:08:48
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:01:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dZyO3hKD1az8UFGttw0g
Will Sotomayor leave the supreme court before 2025?
Part of a series of time-bounded binary questions on who will die/retire from SCOTUS, because many-outcome perimutuels are bad for early predictors. It ends at the end of 2024, because any later would give Biden no chance of replacing them during his first term. Alito: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme Thomas: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr Roberts: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-john-roberts-retiredieleave-th
2022-12-12T07:24:01
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-02T14:03:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ndZuWEeywXhEDQO0Shlg
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Florida?
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Rick Scott, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
2022-12-12T06:57:51
2024-11-06T09:25:28
2024-11-06T09:25:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FPgMpm76jFHsIe1iJ2P6
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Texas?
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Ted Cruz, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
2022-12-12T06:57:49
2024-11-06T09:25:43
2024-11-06T09:25:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JCZkBOUoDA33oAE0MX0c
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Minnesota?
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Amy Klobuchar, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
2022-12-12T06:57:48
2024-11-08T11:22:06
2024-11-08T11:22:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VSYmwqRRTL7O9VnhEGxw
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Michigan?
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Debbie Stabenow, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
2022-12-12T06:57:44
2024-11-06T23:50:38
2024-11-06T23:50:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CUxJXLyCDmWjulgw3Rer
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Wisconsin?
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Tammy Baldwin, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
2022-12-12T06:57:42
2024-11-06T23:51:17
2024-11-06T23:51:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-S3coaLj456wPOTlLlWyi
Will there be Leopard (1 or 2) tanks in service in Ukraine by June 2023?
The question is whether there are Leopard tanks in Ukraine before June 1st 2023. The market will stay open until end of June. Then I will resolve to the best of my abilities. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-there-be-m1-abrams-tanks-in-se?referrer=NickelChen)
2022-12-12T01:25:33
2023-06-30T14:59:00
2023-07-04T09:45:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-aP0u9pJlYhLyYqarEk0G
Will Russia have control over Bakhmut at any point until end of March 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-12T00:41:02
2023-03-31T14:59:00
2023-04-01T00:48:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S2m2MBus8s4l9CAxfRob
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Washington DC?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:29:13
2024-11-06T09:01:22
2024-11-06T09:01:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MCof0zPP2AEYNETbObRo
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Wisconsin?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:28:39
2024-11-06T08:57:52
2024-11-06T08:57:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4yARHzMT1Gze2WNmAZS1
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Virginia?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:27:33
2024-11-06T08:59:06
2024-11-06T08:59:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0zVVnxzRZdwcJ2Gyfjan
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Texas?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:26:38
2024-11-10T18:37:42
2024-11-10T18:37:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wpuiaDEvziaGhtanpmBe
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:23:04
2024-11-06T08:58:04
2024-11-06T08:58:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2jHU0AtX5N8HdpULKaca
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Ohio?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:21:44
2024-11-08T11:10:15
2024-11-08T11:10:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VydVZH2qxHWEr6cdL8BA
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:21:09
2024-11-10T18:42:26
2024-11-10T18:42:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XUBpq2DhnXwy6jBey70b
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in New Mexico?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:20:18
2024-11-06T08:59:22
2024-11-06T08:59:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mb97C4YbxsGwuFMbjCLv
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Nevada?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:18:33
2024-11-10T18:40:53
2024-11-10T18:40:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QCFBRIKwvFvvGEanPZ1G
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Minnesota?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:16:45
2024-11-08T11:03:55
2024-11-08T11:03:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0P8C9JjY5lPEyvRdoqIj
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Michigan?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:16:24
2024-12-01T12:14:00
2024-12-01T12:14:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dLp18snm8I2CNdO0aPrm
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Maine?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:13:38
2024-11-10T18:40:24
2024-11-10T18:40:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lGRdNA9fpvRvl2p9XBG2
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Iowa?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:11:09
2024-11-10T18:55:57
2024-11-10T18:55:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-euWhtlIgfD484ivBlmVi
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Georgia?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:03:26
2024-11-06T08:58:46
2024-11-06T08:58:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-K49i7CUyxaVWwXkSr0eB
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Florida?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T19:03:07
2024-11-06T08:53:29
2024-11-06T08:53:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mGjjbcsVYXNXAniaMdsg
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Arizona?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T18:53:44
2024-11-10T18:44:43
2024-11-10T18:44:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wBdMx7jtG2rHO7Xx9r8e
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Alaska?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-11T18:53:05
2024-11-09T02:46:23
2024-11-09T02:46:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4HWiyUwJFzI945Qtci4i
Will a Democrat who is not Kyrsten Sinema win the Arizona Senate seat in 2024? (Kyrsten Sinema's seat)
Resolves YES if a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema wins the Arizona Senate election in 2024. Resolves NO if Kyrsten Sinema wins (regardless of her party affiliation at that time), or if an Independent or Republican wins. This market applies only to the seat currently held by Kyrsten Sinema.
2022-12-11T09:18:16
2024-11-11T10:08:22
2024-11-11T10:08:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1LPTGLUjyuVQSYjKClop
Will Destiny start another political project within the next 3 months?
Sejin has been asking Destiny to do more canvassing. Destiny said he's going to consider doing more next year. Any major project that involves politics will count.
2022-12-11T09:17:34
2023-03-02T00:28:09
2023-03-02T00:28:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GagKrlKDT80LHzfJqwG0
Will there be another crypto scam or organizational collapse that costs people at least $1 billion USD by the end of 2023?
Does not count general downwards motion of crypto prices. It must be a single event caused by poor management of a single entity. Something similar to the FTX collapse.
2022-12-10T18:15:47
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-01-01T22:44:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wGcYi3bWL484VnG02ydw
Will Tether (USDT) be "unpegged" by the end of 2023?
A duplicate of this market, but for 2023. Tether (USDT) is a so-called "stablecoin", i.e., a cryptocurrency which is (supposed to be) backed by actual currency so that its value is pegged to the US Dollar. Tether has long been suspected to not actually hold the reserves necessary to back all existing USDT. A bounty of $1 million [1] for anyone who provides information on Tether's backing has so far not been claimed. On the other hand, Tether is very useful for trading cryptocurrencies, and many in the business probably do not care about whether it is actually backed, as long as it serves its purpose. This market resolves YES if the value of one USDT is less than 0.9 US Dollars for more than one (consecutive) week of the year 2023 (as reported by [2]). [1] https://hindenburgresearch.com/tether/ [2] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/
2022-12-10T18:00:38
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-01-01T22:46:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iQQ4J9Nnz2XAokcCvE7A
Will Saudi Arabia announce the yuan will be accepted as alternative to the US dollar for oil purchases by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if Saudi Arabia announces they will accept Chinese Yuan as an alternative to the US Dollar to settle oil purchases by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not. While visiting Saudi Arabia in early December 2022 Xi Jinping called for this specifically at a summit of Arab leaders. Dec 2, 11:52pm: Will Saudi Arabia announce the yuan will be accepted as alternative to the US dollar for oil purchases by the end of 2022? → Will Saudi Arabia announce the yuan will be accepted as alternative to the US dollar for oil purchases by the end of 2023?
2022-12-10T17:19:39
2023-12-31T20:17:24
2023-12-31T20:17:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hhwI308rRAqF3wVDPlTK
Will Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party by the end of 2023?
Joe Manchin is up for reelection in West Virginia, much like Kristen Sinema, and it's definitely not unthinkable he would take a similar path and abandon the Dems but to join the GOP rather than going independent.
2022-12-10T16:57:32
2023-12-31T13:54:33
2023-12-31T13:54:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FZht6rUgnvJyhLbrLdo8
Will Kyrsten Sinema run for re-election to the Senate in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-12-10T16:50:46
2024-03-05T20:45:28
2024-03-05T20:45:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Du6DWpm6GuU9WT6375XR
Will any "Anti-AI art" law be created in the USA in 2023?
This resolves to "YES" if any laws are passed (or judicial rulings made with the force of law) in the USA that has the specific intent of hindering generative AI art projects and/or companies. Examples include, but are not limited to: Copyright laws/rulings that make it clear that training generative AI on copyrighted imagery counts as making a derivative work Laws/rulings regarding people's personal likenesses that impose restrictions on tools & software capable of generating them, or penalties on those who create them Laws/rulings against creating e.g. pornography with somebody's face without their consent State and Federal laws and judicial rulings all qualify. This is a fairly broad brush I'm painting with, and will be resolved subjectively in my sole (but trying to be fair) opinion, BUT there are two objective tests I will subject all the above criteria to: MUST BE NEW LAW: the legislation or judicial ruling has to be new. It can't have already existed as of when this market was posted. MUST BURDEN THE SOFTWARE/COMPANY: it's not enough to say "no individual is allowed to produce a picture of type X using these tools," because arguably that's already the case with e.g. photoshop. It has to have some burden that attaches liability to an individual or company who produces or maintains or trains software that can produce a picture of type X. Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-12-10T16:31:06
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-02T22:05:53
no
MANIFOLD