id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-xlwwre0YKb0XZ6URhWyS | Will there be more searches for GPT-4 than for ChatGPT on any day before July 2023? | I will use google trends to resolve the market
https://trends.google.com.br/trends/explore?hl=pt-BR&tz=180&date=today+1-m&q=ChatGPT,GPT-4&sni=6 | 2022-12-17T17:23:56 | 2023-06-30T19:59:00 | 2023-07-01T08:37:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TIsnxXr12SjY3mInqEnc | Will Greta Gerwig's Barbie be rated at least 8.0 in IMDB at the end of 2023? | Closes by the end of 2023 at Yes if Barbie is rated 8.0 or above, and at No if not
IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1517268 | 2022-12-17T15:16:25 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:07:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eqif7qFvcdmzRDsTefvC | Will Destiny get banned on Twitter again by April 1st, 2023? | Resolves YES if a Twitter account that is known to be ran by Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II) is banned or suspended by April 1st, 2023 for any reason (including ban evasion).
Destiny has a history of creating accounts and getting banned for ban evasion after a while (some last much longer than others).
Today (12/... | 2022-12-17T15:12:26 | 2023-04-01T00:00:00 | 2023-04-01T10:46:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oGsxnHtk3LqXUUw33GbE | Has Tesla been grossly misrepresenting the range of it's semi truck? | PepsiCo has made strange comments this week following delivery of the trucks that it is capable of 400 mile range hauling potato chips but only 100 mile range hauling soda. Tesla has claimed 400 mile range loaded to approximately 85,000 lbs so why does the type of cargo effect this?
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 ... | 2022-12-17T10:08:32 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-08-11T11:04:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5Hr8o1S42nnwYD1eaBlP | Will Twitter declare bankruptcy while Elon Musk is CEO? | This market will resolve no if Elon Musk steps down as CEO and Twitter hasn't filed for bankruptcy.
Dec 17, 11:30am: Will twitter declare bankruptcy while Elon Musk is CEO? → Will Twitter declare bankruptcy while Elon Musk is CEO? | 2022-12-17T08:28:29 | 2023-06-06T16:33:14 | 2023-06-06T16:33:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fgRKxwOx2Ov1dcjCEkLH | Will Apple surpass $3 trillion market cap anytime before the end of 2023? | https://companiesmarketcap.com/apple/marketcap/ | 2022-12-17T07:50:20 | 2023-07-31T17:37:28 | 2023-07-31T17:37:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CM8Z7X2EKvyRlxfbCyV0 | Will Sonia Sotomayor retire from the Supreme Court before January 2025? | Dec 17, 10:49am: Will Sonya Sotomayor retire from the Supreme Court before January 2025? → Will Sonia Sotomayor retire from the Supreme Court before January 2025? | 2022-12-17T07:47:45 | 2025-01-01T07:47:00 | 2025-01-01T08:33:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Cc6bQTBOtcb4l9tIH1DM | Will Elon Musk be indicted for any crimes before the end of 2023? | Resolves to YES if Musk is officially indicted.
Resolves to NO if only an investigation is launched against him but no indiction, or if nothing happens.
Dec 17, 10:45am: Will Elon Musk be federally indicted by any reasons before the end of 2023? → Will Elon Musk be indicted for any crimes before the end of 2023? | 2022-12-17T07:44:43 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:33:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aAEaRtv6OO5XsOUxuS9b | Will Rich Campbell go live on Twitch...? | Will Richwcampbell go live on twitch before March 8, 2023 (International Women's Day) , after the SA accusation from @Azalialexi
Accusation: https://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1ss6utn
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Azalialexi
richwcampbell: https://www.twitch.tv/richwcampbell/schedule
Last live December 10th.
Twitt... | 2022-12-17T01:17:40 | 2023-03-07T20:59:00 | 2023-03-08T04:50:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TGXInmvJWnVUwV5a7WCW | Will human brains be weaker than AI in every way by the end of 2024? | This is a duplicate of @/L/will-human-brains-be-weaker-than-ai, but for 2024. It resolves according to my interpretation of the same criteria laid out there, which I have copied here:
Resolves yes if and only if human brains are unambiguously weaker than AI in every domain.
Resolution process:
to propose YES resolut... | 2022-12-16T20:50:35 | 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-01-02T12:23:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hv9i2antpAfxrXVm0MYm | Will there be more hurricanes in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season than in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season? | This question covers the Atlantic hurricane season beginning on June 1, 2023, and ends on November 30, 2023, and resolves YES if there are more than eight hurricanes (the number in 2022). | 2022-12-16T18:16:35 | 2023-12-31T12:00:00 | 2023-12-31T12:44:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5m4OS1p0zJk7xb9kXZ11 | Will Apple's first AR/VR headset have an outward facing screen that shows your eyes? | This has been rumoured for much of this year: https://www.imore.com/apples-mixed-reality-headset-could-have-external-screen-show-people-your-facial-expressions
This market won't resolve until either Apple announces an AR, VR, or MR head-mounted display, or they don't release one before 2030. It resolves YES if such a ... | 2022-12-16T15:55:40 | 2023-06-05T12:57:12 | 2023-06-05T12:57:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-V21iwxavu1Zw2G4QjGvz | In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will the average response among all entrants be within the top 10% of entrants if scored as an entrant itself? | https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest | 2022-12-16T13:25:10 | 2024-03-31T13:21:53 | 2024-03-31T13:21:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UPUytGuLxcbmpR2kecbE | Will any Manifold market about Magic: The Gathering get at least 100 traders by the end of 2023? | https://manifold.markets/group/magic-the-gathering | 2022-12-16T12:23:58 | 2023-09-09T21:25:21 | 2023-09-09T21:25:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PsrwzT6FIBOTQvrcLe4L | Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% in his first term? | This market will resolve YES if Biden's approval rating as measured by FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) reaches 50% before the end of his first term, and resolves NO otherwise.
The last full day of Biden's first term is January 19, 2025, unless he leaves office before then.... | 2022-12-16T11:17:28 | 2025-01-19T20:59:00 | 2025-01-19T21:42:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JxXvTrSyADLdr3mu0nee | Will Sam Trabucco (former co-CEO of Alameda Research) be arrested before March 31st 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-16T10:28:18 | 2023-03-31T21:59:00 | 2023-03-31T22:16:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rr3JiEkQCH07Yq51Vejw | Will Émile Torres be noticeably better calibrated in their criticisms of EA/Longtermism by July 2023? | This market has a 1 week grace period where terms can change
ie, by July will there be consensus that Émile Torres describes criticisms more appropriately in terms of magnitude? | 2022-12-16T05:33:24 | 2023-07-19T14:58:55 | 2023-07-19T14:58:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C7F0sw3cbVaRgs62QgSG | Will Substack launch an ad network in 2023? | From Casey Newton's 13 Predictions for 2023:
"Substack will launch an ad network. The Rebooting’s Brian Morrissey likes to say that the first step toward building an ad network is to first say you’ll never do it. Substack, the service on which Platformer is hosted, long ago took such a step. But so much has changed si... | 2022-12-16T05:28:28 | 2023-12-31T20:10:12 | 2023-12-31T20:10:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xWt3w7sLXe6tSA3I2IbR | Will Destiny change his main platform (Youtube) by the end of 2023 ? | Resolves Yes if:
-Destiny gets banned on Youtube and streams somewhere else
-Destiny decides to move somewhere else (e.g. he gets unbanned from Twitch and goes back)
-Destiny streams on multiple platforms at the same time and gets more concurrent viewers somewhere other than Youtube
If Destiny does any of these thi... | 2022-12-16T04:04:25 | 2023-12-30T15:00:00 | 2024-01-01T15:28:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SMIGkQ9ckwkgGXuEo4qZ | Will Twitter acquire Substack by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-16T01:06:12 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:00:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hBPV82Xn79qNWvNqM6m5 | Will the Fed raise benchmark rates in May? | Jan/Feb 31-1
March 21-22
May 2-3 | 2022-12-15T22:00:18 | 2023-05-03T10:00:00 | 2023-05-03T11:01:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YOFT4odT4fUkm8bSNGzZ | Will Russia begin a major new offensive towards Kyiv before 1 March 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-15T20:49:16 | 2023-03-01T15:59:00 | 2023-03-05T13:15:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mtu58bWjzESTd1aHIdmA | Will Joe Biden's Approval Rating Reach 50% or Higher? | Specifically: Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% or higher at some point during the rest of his presidency?
This market will either resolve when Biden's approval rating hits 50%, or when Biden stops being the president. I will be referring only to FiveThirtyEight's calculation of Biden's approval rating.
http... | 2022-12-15T20:26:07 | 2025-01-20T09:00:00 | 2025-01-31T23:29:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5KJNvnirFhYFGPAUsdNC | Will Elon Musk make Lex Fridman Twitter's CEO by the end of 2023? | This market will resolve to YES if Lex Fridman becomes Twitter's CEO (or co-CEO) by the end of 2023. | 2022-12-15T16:49:46 | 2023-12-31T13:50:10 | 2023-12-31T13:50:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0YiPsYmQUEQ6hnDSJf2E | Will DeSantis crush Trump? | >50% more delegates, | 2022-12-15T13:08:54 | 2024-05-03T16:35:02 | 2024-05-03T16:35:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-juVIMlRXcqV8aanZ7HM3 | Will Trump crush DeSantis? | >50% more delegates, | 2022-12-15T13:00:27 | 2024-05-03T14:48:46 | 2024-05-03T14:48:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XF67fkHfbowCjkQ5bwGX | Will Elon Musk sell more than $1Bln of Tesla stock during Q1 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-15T09:16:12 | 2023-04-16T23:18:41 | 2023-04-17T07:43:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NpFOADZWZoczKIjoLPnl | Will anyone profit by at least M$200,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that res... | 2022-12-14T18:24:49 | 2023-04-03T04:01:32 | 2023-04-03T04:01:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-x6pS4F8oCmoKhr3Dc53s | Will anyone profit by at least M$150,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$150,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that res... | 2022-12-14T18:24:36 | 2023-04-03T04:01:22 | 2023-04-03T04:01:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NTepuNNpCKvH3CCU7xTN | Will anyone profit by at least M$100,000 on a single market by the end of 2023? | I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$100,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.
Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that res... | 2022-12-14T18:24:21 | 2023-04-03T04:01:14 | 2023-04-03T04:01:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LYhcMqhDA1EHJBzizIch | Will Tesla surpass $1 trillion market cap anytime before the end of 2023? | https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/ | 2022-12-14T17:31:08 | 2023-12-30T13:27:43 | 2023-12-30T13:27:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Xw73LT0vOR8DWpTl0j7U | Will Ukraine control any territory near Azov sea by end of March 2023? | Resolves YES if Ukraine controls any territory within 20km of Azov sea coast for at least 3 days by the end of March.
For the purposes of this question, Molochnyi Lyman and Syvash lake are not considered to be part of Azov sea, but Utliuts'kyi Lyman is.
| 2022-12-14T15:50:37 | 2023-03-31T20:59:00 | 2023-04-08T22:03:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gdXiPGTApxCs38N8udNz | Will Apple allow alternative app stores by the start of 2024? | Apple recently announced that they will allow third-party app stores by the start of 2024, in accordance with EU regulations coming into effect then.
https://9to5mac.com/2022/12/13/apple-alternative-app-stores-iphone/
This market will resolve YES if I can download a third-party app store and then install an app from... | 2022-12-14T15:45:40 | 2023-12-31T11:31:13 | 2023-12-31T11:31:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kk3ACdM27ifS2gAMQcXG | Will the US ban TikTok in the US by EOY 2023? | This market will resolve positively if the US government bans TikTok, through laws, regulation, executive action, or something else, provided a branch of the US government does it. If companies (e.g. Apple or Google) don't actually comply, that will not stop this market from resolving positively. | 2022-12-14T12:35:15 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:08:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T | Binance collapses before the end of 2023 | Gracefully winding down doesn't count, it must be somewhat catastrophic, similar to FTX. Happening unexpectedly in a short time frame, leaving other people at a disadvantage, etc. | 2022-12-14T11:32:35 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-01T22:41:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BMG4vVsTBwGJFy2KKNkh | Will SBF be offered a deal? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-14T10:31:37 | 2023-11-02T17:44:40 | 2023-11-02T17:44:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NUsTLpOtZUWaPThh63QS | Will the US government shut down on Oct 1st, 2023 because Congress fails to pass a budget? | I'll update the dates if the deadline changes, but I believe that's currently the projected deadline. | 2022-12-14T09:26:50 | 2023-10-01T16:59:00 | 2023-10-05T19:05:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bWtHLGxfFzB8QKexyUOJ | Will China host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | Resolves YES if China is selected as the 2030 World Cup host or co-host in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024.
Current FIFA rules prevent Asian Football Confederation nations from hosting any World Cup until 2034, but: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2019/06/05/fifa-open-china-bid-2030-world-cup-blow-gb-ireland-hopes... | 2022-12-14T09:16:27 | 2023-10-04T08:50:45 | 2023-10-04T08:50:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YutuQyIiqK7v5X9N5C7B | Will Morocco host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | Resolves YES if Morocco is selected as the 2030 World Cup host in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024.
Also resolves YES if Morocco co-hosts the World Cup (for example with Tunisia and Algeria, or with Portugal and Spain) | 2022-12-14T09:12:30 | 2023-10-04T08:51:42 | 2023-10-04T08:51:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-19RsVBPJlzZjUFmo0V3J | Will Spain and Portugal co-host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | Resolves YES if the Spain and Portugal are selected as the 2030 World Cup hosts in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024.
Ukraine might possibly join their bid and host games from the group stages: https://theathletic.com/3655578/2022/10/05/ukraine-2030-world-cup-bid/
If Ukraine or another country (for example Morocco) join... | 2022-12-14T09:12:18 | 2023-10-04T08:48:40 | 2023-10-04T08:48:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mvECtfx19OvsigAq5csm | Will South America host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | Resolves YES if countries from South America are selected as the 2030 World Cup hosts in the 74th FIFA Congress in 2024.
Currently, there are two possible bids: Argentina–Chile–Paraguay-Uruguay and Colombia–Ecuador–Peru. Resolves YES if either of those bids or another bid including South American countries is selected... | 2022-12-14T09:12:07 | 2023-10-04T08:47:57 | 2023-10-04T08:47:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JO4igglBL4kMoj0q6KNq | Will the party endorsed by the Sun newspaper win the next UK general election? | For these purposes, win means largest party. As determined by Wikipedia entry (here is the 2019 equivalent: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election )
In case of no endorsement, market resolves N/A
Dec 14, 4:27pm: Will the party endorsed by the Sun win the next UK gener... | 2022-12-14T04:30:12 | 2024-07-04T22:15:34 | 2024-07-04T22:15:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-trG8jU6eb9l7lsW2RTnQ | Will TSMC announce they are building a fab in Indiana before the end of 2023? | Doesn't matter what kind of chips it makes, just that it's TSMC direct investment in building and operating the facility. Indiana governor visited right around same time as Arizona governor where they recently announced $40mm direct investment, perhaps the largest in the history of the US. | 2022-12-13T20:47:33 | 2023-12-31T20:43:23 | 2023-12-31T20:43:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wufJm53wgghFxOB1U71Q | Will Anthropic Return The Funds they Received from SBF? | According to https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/29/anthropics-quest-for-better-more-explainable-ai-attracts-580m , Anthropic raised 580M led by SBF in 2022. This market resolves true if either of the following occurs:
Anthropic is ordered by a court to pay back the 580M investment or whatever cash is remaining
Anthropic ... | 2022-12-13T15:06:19 | 2023-06-03T16:20:00 | 2023-06-03T18:17:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-luBoEQfn4D4vd1AJbIVw | Will ByteDance surpass $1Trillion market cap by the end of 2023? | Dec 13, 5:17pm: Will ByteDance surpass $1Bln market cap by the end of 2023? → Will ByteDance surpass $1Trillion market cap by the end of 2023? | 2022-12-13T14:16:44 | 2023-12-31T20:20:47 | 2023-12-31T20:20:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ | Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023? | Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts.
Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any release before the end of March 31st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).
Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.
Re... | 2022-12-13T10:53:24 | 2023-03-14T16:21:46 | 2023-03-14T16:21:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eJuaTlWQFCivv74AQdO1 | Will $50mm worth of SBF political donations be clawed back or voluntarily returned by the end of 2023? | As I understand it these are among the most likely funds to be returned during bankruptcy proceedings. Marco Rubio I believe has already returned his contribution from SBF. | 2022-12-13T10:37:34 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:07:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j9gOp4AvbXpHmzJJUWIp | Will Tesla trade below $100 at any point during 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-13T10:08:40 | 2023-12-30T09:46:32 | 2023-12-30T09:46:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5LblQdc7VI3SzxEKfUIF | Will Kosovo and Serbia go to war before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-12T23:40:23 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:07:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S0yDK8VSiedbJObDH7G4 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky make a tweet about the sci-fi movie M3gan before the end of 2023? | Retweets don't count.
The tweet does not have to mention M3gan by name, so long as it is either 1, unambiguously a reference to M3gan, or 2, later clarified by Eliezer Yudkowsky to be a reference to M3gan. | 2022-12-12T23:21:48 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T17:35:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jN256427BUcC8Eouwn4Q | Will Vladimir Zelenskyy visit the White House in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-12T22:07:21 | 2023-09-21T12:42:03 | 2023-09-21T12:42:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dqlGytAOyI7sAnYtkQdG | Will CZ (CEO of Binance) be indicted in the US before the end of 2023? | https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/12/12/us-prosecutors-look-to-charge-binance-and-cz-for-possible-money-laundering-violations-reuters/
Resolves to YES if CZ is indicted in the US anytime before 12/31/23
Resolves to NO if CZ is not indicted in the US before 12/31/23 | 2022-12-12T20:07:17 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T20:40:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3O6BVoUKU0oeSiAfU7Tc | Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-12T17:28:01 | 2023-09-30T17:19:09 | 2023-09-30T17:19:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4PG1NBXdql5NsGIlZy8v | Does Gary Wang get >=1 years sentence? | (https://manifold.markets/embed/GeorgeVii/does-gary-wang-get-4-years-sentence)
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-12-12T17:21:14 | 2024-12-03T11:12:22 | 2024-12-03T11:12:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-16FLwUCPAqQGBBcaAyxx | Does Caroline Ellison get >=1 years sentence? | (https://manifold.markets/embed/GeorgeVii/does-caroline-ellison-get-4-year-se)
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-12-12T17:20:44 | 2024-09-24T15:54:13 | 2024-09-24T15:54:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wUK9kDHVfviXNeSnG3Wu | Does Caroline Ellison get >4 year sentence? | (https://manifold.markets/embed/GeorgeVii/does-caroline-ellison-get-1-years-s)
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-12-12T16:54:52 | 2024-09-24T15:54:48 | 2024-09-24T15:54:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M1q78hjjCDi2kfR6cQrN | Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more? | That is, a sentence >=50 years
Dec 22, 5:02pm: Does SBF get a life-sentence? → Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more? | 2022-12-12T16:53:19 | 2024-03-28T13:05:38 | 2024-03-28T13:05:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8BxYIaXlMfMDAKAqJkC1 | Conditional on legislative approval, will the Chilean people approve the new proposal for a constitution? | Update: This market resolves strictly according to the official results of the Chilean National Plebiscite on Sunday 17th of December.
The major political parties of Chile just reached an agreement to draft a new constitution written by a mixed body of experts and elected constituents.
Assuming this agreement will be... | 2022-12-12T16:46:37 | 2023-12-18T09:00:00 | 2023-12-18T09:11:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SZFOQoUOAJRHIs0SQEI4 | Will the UK sign a free trade agreement with India by the end of 2023? | The sixth round of negotiations under the current Tory government has recently commenced. | 2022-12-12T15:50:17 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:00:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h94d1IBfS6L3yH8d88XH | Will S&P500 close above 4400 at the end of 2023? | Will S&P500 close above 4400 at the end of 2023?
Resolution according to Yahoo!Finance
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC&.tsrc=fin-srch | 2022-12-12T15:36:02 | 2023-12-30T09:55:14 | 2023-12-30T09:55:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lPK2PZrNlNwztYEg1emt | Will Russia prohibit leaving the country for men of military age before the end of 2023? | This market resolves "YES" if Russia closes its borders to the majority of men of military age for at least two weeks before the end of 2023. | 2022-12-12T12:37:54 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:33:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y5kf9rqbMEDZPMWpnJxa | Will George R. R. Martin finish writing Winds of Winter by May 31, 2023? | Resolves to YES if he publically announces this by the first week of June (although I can change this if people have compelling arguments for why this doesn't correlate well enough to the core question). | 2022-12-12T11:47:52 | 2023-06-07T11:30:00 | 2023-06-07T12:07:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q1bciMf246qbVP2eEMTl | Will Russia legally end the ongoing military mobilization before the end of 2023? | Background
At the end of October 2022, Russian officials announced that partial mobilization was over. However, it has not been ended by decree or any other legal act. This fact has several legal ramifications. Already mobilized conscripts are not allowed to resign. Several Russian laws contain the legal concept of a ... | 2022-12-12T10:05:18 | 2023-12-31T13:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:35:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-duK5XhOr3l2pYy3I0peL | Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2024? | I have never seen someone so full of shit in my life as Elon Musk these past six months. When you behave like that the people around you start behaving like that. Eventually someone is committing fraud. I suspect charges are coming, do you agree?
Dec 12, 11:09am: Will any of Elon Musk's company's be charged with fraud... | 2022-12-12T09:46:28 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T17:05:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gBPRThy00I8Bi3nJHmOF | Will John Roberts retire/die/leave the US supreme court before 2025? | Related markets:
Sotomayor: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-sotomayor-leave-the-supreme-co
Thomas: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr
Alito: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme | 2022-12-12T09:44:25 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T14:02:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lY2gkwFtqzavqd4PVMwY | Will Vladimir Putin relocate OUT of Russia before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-12T09:41:11 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T06:48:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vpCcCwRwPcth8WoWOkTJ | Will any of Elon Musk's companies be charged with fraud by the end of 2023? | I have never seen someone so full of shit in my life as Elon Musk these past six months. When you behave like that the people around you start behaving like that. Eventually someone is committing fraud. I suspect charges are coming, do you agree?
Dec 12, 11:09am: Will any of Elon Musk's company's be charged with fraud... | 2022-12-12T08:08:48 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:01:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dZyO3hKD1az8UFGttw0g | Will Sotomayor leave the supreme court before 2025? | Part of a series of time-bounded binary questions on who will die/retire from SCOTUS, because many-outcome perimutuels are bad for early predictors. It ends at the end of 2024, because any later would give Biden no chance of replacing them during his first term.
Alito: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samue... | 2022-12-12T07:24:01 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T14:03:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ndZuWEeywXhEDQO0Shlg | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Florida? | This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Rick Scott, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candi... | 2022-12-12T06:57:51 | 2024-11-06T09:25:28 | 2024-11-06T09:25:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FPgMpm76jFHsIe1iJ2P6 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Texas? | This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Ted Cruz, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candida... | 2022-12-12T06:57:49 | 2024-11-06T09:25:43 | 2024-11-06T09:25:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JCZkBOUoDA33oAE0MX0c | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Minnesota? | This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Amy Klobuchar, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the ca... | 2022-12-12T06:57:48 | 2024-11-08T11:22:06 | 2024-11-08T11:22:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VSYmwqRRTL7O9VnhEGxw | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Michigan? | This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Debbie Stabenow, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the ... | 2022-12-12T06:57:44 | 2024-11-06T23:50:38 | 2024-11-06T23:50:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CUxJXLyCDmWjulgw3Rer | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Wisconsin? | This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Tammy Baldwin, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the ca... | 2022-12-12T06:57:42 | 2024-11-06T23:51:17 | 2024-11-06T23:51:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S3coaLj456wPOTlLlWyi | Will there be Leopard (1 or 2) tanks in service in Ukraine by June 2023? | The question is whether there are Leopard tanks in Ukraine before June 1st 2023. The market will stay open until end of June. Then I will resolve to the best of my abilities.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickelChen/will-there-be-m1-abrams-tanks-in-se?referrer=NickelChen) | 2022-12-12T01:25:33 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-07-04T09:45:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aP0u9pJlYhLyYqarEk0G | Will Russia have control over Bakhmut at any point until end of March 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-12T00:41:02 | 2023-03-31T14:59:00 | 2023-04-01T00:48:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S2m2MBus8s4l9CAxfRob | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Washington DC? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:29:13 | 2024-11-06T09:01:22 | 2024-11-06T09:01:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MCof0zPP2AEYNETbObRo | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Wisconsin? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:28:39 | 2024-11-06T08:57:52 | 2024-11-06T08:57:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4yARHzMT1Gze2WNmAZS1 | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Virginia? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:27:33 | 2024-11-06T08:59:06 | 2024-11-06T08:59:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0zVVnxzRZdwcJ2Gyfjan | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Texas? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:26:38 | 2024-11-10T18:37:42 | 2024-11-10T18:37:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wpuiaDEvziaGhtanpmBe | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:23:04 | 2024-11-06T08:58:04 | 2024-11-06T08:58:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2jHU0AtX5N8HdpULKaca | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Ohio? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:21:44 | 2024-11-08T11:10:15 | 2024-11-08T11:10:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VydVZH2qxHWEr6cdL8BA | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:21:09 | 2024-11-10T18:42:26 | 2024-11-10T18:42:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XUBpq2DhnXwy6jBey70b | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in New Mexico? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:20:18 | 2024-11-06T08:59:22 | 2024-11-06T08:59:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mb97C4YbxsGwuFMbjCLv | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Nevada? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:18:33 | 2024-11-10T18:40:53 | 2024-11-10T18:40:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QCFBRIKwvFvvGEanPZ1G | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Minnesota? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:16:45 | 2024-11-08T11:03:55 | 2024-11-08T11:03:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0P8C9JjY5lPEyvRdoqIj | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Michigan? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:16:24 | 2024-12-01T12:14:00 | 2024-12-01T12:14:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dLp18snm8I2CNdO0aPrm | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Maine? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:13:38 | 2024-11-10T18:40:24 | 2024-11-10T18:40:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lGRdNA9fpvRvl2p9XBG2 | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Iowa? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:11:09 | 2024-11-10T18:55:57 | 2024-11-10T18:55:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-euWhtlIgfD484ivBlmVi | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Georgia? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:03:26 | 2024-11-06T08:58:46 | 2024-11-06T08:58:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K49i7CUyxaVWwXkSr0eB | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Florida? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T19:03:07 | 2024-11-06T08:53:29 | 2024-11-06T08:53:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mGjjbcsVYXNXAniaMdsg | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Arizona? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T18:53:44 | 2024-11-10T18:44:43 | 2024-11-10T18:44:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wBdMx7jtG2rHO7Xx9r8e | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Alaska? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-11T18:53:05 | 2024-11-09T02:46:23 | 2024-11-09T02:46:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4HWiyUwJFzI945Qtci4i | Will a Democrat who is not Kyrsten Sinema win the Arizona Senate seat in 2024? (Kyrsten Sinema's seat) | Resolves YES if a Democrat other than Kyrsten Sinema wins the Arizona Senate election in 2024. Resolves NO if Kyrsten Sinema wins (regardless of her party affiliation at that time), or if an Independent or Republican wins.
This market applies only to the seat currently held by Kyrsten Sinema. | 2022-12-11T09:18:16 | 2024-11-11T10:08:22 | 2024-11-11T10:08:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1LPTGLUjyuVQSYjKClop | Will Destiny start another political project within the next 3 months? | Sejin has been asking Destiny to do more canvassing.
Destiny said he's going to consider doing more next year.
Any major project that involves politics will count. | 2022-12-11T09:17:34 | 2023-03-02T00:28:09 | 2023-03-02T00:28:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GagKrlKDT80LHzfJqwG0 | Will there be another crypto scam or organizational collapse that costs people at least $1 billion USD by the end of 2023? | Does not count general downwards motion of crypto prices. It must be a single event caused by poor management of a single entity. Something similar to the FTX collapse. | 2022-12-10T18:15:47 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-01T22:44:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wGcYi3bWL484VnG02ydw | Will Tether (USDT) be "unpegged" by the end of 2023? | A duplicate of this market, but for 2023.
Tether (USDT) is a so-called "stablecoin", i.e., a cryptocurrency which is (supposed to be) backed by actual currency so that its value is pegged to the US Dollar. Tether has long been suspected to not actually hold the reserves necessary to back all existing USDT. A bounty of... | 2022-12-10T18:00:38 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-01T22:46:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iQQ4J9Nnz2XAokcCvE7A | Will Saudi Arabia announce the yuan will be accepted as alternative to the US dollar for oil purchases by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if Saudi Arabia announces they will accept Chinese Yuan as an alternative to the US Dollar to settle oil purchases by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not.
While visiting Saudi Arabia in early December 2022 Xi Jinping called for this specifically at a summit of Arab leaders.
Dec 2, 11:52pm: Will Saudi A... | 2022-12-10T17:19:39 | 2023-12-31T20:17:24 | 2023-12-31T20:17:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hhwI308rRAqF3wVDPlTK | Will Joe Manchin leave the Democratic Party by the end of 2023? | Joe Manchin is up for reelection in West Virginia, much like Kristen Sinema, and it's definitely not unthinkable he would take a similar path and abandon the Dems but to join the GOP rather than going independent. | 2022-12-10T16:57:32 | 2023-12-31T13:54:33 | 2023-12-31T13:54:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FZht6rUgnvJyhLbrLdo8 | Will Kyrsten Sinema run for re-election to the Senate in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-12-10T16:50:46 | 2024-03-05T20:45:28 | 2024-03-05T20:45:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Du6DWpm6GuU9WT6375XR | Will any "Anti-AI art" law be created in the USA in 2023? | This resolves to "YES" if any laws are passed (or judicial rulings made with the force of law) in the USA that has the specific intent of hindering generative AI art projects and/or companies. Examples include, but are not limited to:
Copyright laws/rulings that make it clear that training generative AI on copyrighted... | 2022-12-10T16:31:06 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-02T22:05:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
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