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stringlengths 0
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-itDKqBvodNDJZ6zZ8xJB
|
Will any "Anti-AI art" law be created in any OECD country in 2023?
|
This resolves to "YES" if any laws are passed (or judicial rulings made with the force of law) in any OECD country that has the specific intent of hindering generative AI art projects and/or companies. Examples include, but are not limited to:
Copyright laws/rulings that make it clear that training generative AI on copyrighted imagery counts as making a derivative work
Laws/rulings regarding people's personal likenesses that impose restrictions on tools & software capable of generating them, or penalties on those who create them
Laws/rulings against creating e.g. pornography with somebody's face without their consent
This is a fairly broad brush I'm painting with, and will be resolved subjectively in my sole (but trying to be fair) opinion, BUT there are two objective tests I will subject all the above criteria to:
MUST BE NEW LAW: the legislation or judicial ruling has to be new. It can't have already existed as of when this market was posted.
MUST BURDEN THE SOFTWARE/COMPANY: it's not enough to say "no individual is allowed to produce a picture of type X using these tools," because arguably that's already the case with e.g. photoshop. It has to have some burden that attaches liability to an individual or company who produces or maintains or trains software that can produce a picture of type X.
|
2022-12-10T16:29:03
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-02-05T07:14:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C2IFN1DogAsTvCn4MqFW
|
Will Starfield release to mostly positive reviews?
|
This market will resolve to yes if the steam user rating of Starfield is Mostly Positive or better after 1 week of being released.
Close date updated to 2023-05-31 6:59 pm
|
2022-12-10T11:54:24
|
2023-09-12T15:59:00
|
2023-09-14T05:32:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GfoxYNoIcEbgyrgPKEHV
|
Will dearMoon complete its mission and return to Earth before Artemis 2 does?
|
dearMoon is scheduled to launch before Artemis 2, but either or both may see delays. Missions are considered complete when all surviving crew are returned to Earth.
|
2022-12-10T07:26:57
|
2024-06-01T18:15:01
|
2024-06-01T18:15:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yLnfj3t749hknHviXKyg
|
Will an AI art generator be trained that uses only public domain and Creative Commons images by the end of 2023?
|
I did a straw poll of artist friends who objected to stable diffusion, and most said their main issue was it being trained on copyrighted images.
This market resolves YES, if any major generative art AI is released before 2024 that is trained exclusively on public domain and Creative Commons licensed images (or at least a data set that is credibly 99% such images).
|
2022-12-10T06:49:48
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-03-24T22:57:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-elmLpRjH2SCSCeyN9a0k
|
Will Rafael Nadal win the 2023 French Open?
|
Resolved yes if Nadal wins the 2023 French Open.
|
2022-12-10T06:21:19
|
2023-05-18T07:31:51
|
2023-05-18T07:31:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VRLkJ5sozSalYUUPPREw
|
Will OpenAI release its own text-to-video generative model, similar to Make-a-Video or Imagen Video, by the end of June 2023?
|
OpenAI has been the leader in realistic image generation from text, introducing the DALL-E and DALL-E 2 models to the world. However, they did not publish a similar model for videos yet.
In the meantime, Meta came up with the Make-a-Video system, and Google published a paper for the Imagen Video model.
Will OpenAI join the competition by the end of June 2023 (June 30, 2023, 23:59)?
|
2022-12-10T05:37:59
|
2023-06-30T14:59:00
|
2023-07-05T13:54:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UitJbJIPmkakW2hLgTFP
|
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana?
|
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Jon Tester, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
|
2022-12-10T05:02:29
|
2024-11-06T09:25:09
|
2024-11-06T09:25:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y8sp8NuWeM2jeZPuxyJf
|
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Ohio?
|
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Sherrod Brown, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election are not important; what matters is how the candidate appears on the ballot.
|
2022-12-10T05:02:27
|
2024-11-06T09:25:16
|
2024-11-06T09:25:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mnI42WWh6aY3cYD3DtrX
|
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in West Virginia?
|
This refers to the regularly scheduled November election for the seat currently occupied by Joe Manchin, not any possible special election. If an independent candidate wins, this will resolve to NO, even if they caucus with the Democrats. Party switches after the election do not count; what matters is the party that appears on the ballot with the winning candidate.
|
2022-12-10T05:02:26
|
2024-11-22T00:05:49
|
2024-11-22T00:05:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zsSDPMXQw5MM6ffGM1uC
|
Will Clarence Thomas leave the supreme court before 2025?
|
Related markets
Roberts: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-john-roberts-retiredieleave-th
Sotomayor: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-sotomayor-leave-the-supreme-co
Alito: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
|
2022-12-10T00:31:11
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00
|
2025-01-02T14:03:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-arE9Gp4C6JUWluJ77SZF
|
Will Kyrsten Sinema win at least one county in the 2024 Arizona Senate election?
|
If she does not even run this shall resolve NO.
Dec 10, 1:42am: Will Kyrsten Sinema win a single county in the 2024 Arizona Senate election? → Will Kyrsten Sinema win at least one county in the 2024 Arizona Senate election?
|
2022-12-09T23:38:51
|
2024-03-05T20:46:09
|
2024-03-05T20:46:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ulYrd8FIfiLRzy4oJguX
|
Will Pope Francis resign by end of 2023?
|
Pope Francis has alluded that he might retire. Resolves YES if Pope Francis publicly announces (but does not necessarily complete) his resignation before Jan 1, 2024. Otherwise NO. (If he dies, that's a NO.)
|
2022-12-09T21:19:47
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:17:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X15ze5u0C49oe5cXbpk3
|
Will the Fed raise benchmark rates in March?
|
March 21-22
|
2022-12-09T13:51:30
|
2023-03-22T11:00:00
|
2023-03-22T11:02:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XLSC4LbrVPS1E7JBAoPT
|
Will Hades II out perform Hades on steam charts by the end of 2024?
|
Hades II was announced by Supergiant games 8 Dec 2022. This market will resolve YES if steamcharts.com shows Hades II to have a higher all time player peak than Hades which is 37,586 concurrent players.
The game is set to come out in early access at some point in 2023 with no release date announced yet.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/l-iHDj3EwdI)
|
2022-12-09T12:50:23
|
2024-05-10T08:07:40
|
2024-05-10T08:07:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pInIhzicWSAClnhIfhei
|
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2023 MLB World Series?
|
Dec 9, 1:02pm: Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2023 World Series? → Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2023 MLB World Series?
|
2022-12-09T10:59:30
|
2023-10-03T11:03:33
|
2023-10-03T11:03:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xtT4JPBi2Pmasgggn3iE
|
Will Kyrsten Sinema caucus with the Senate Democrats on March 1, 2023?
|
Resolves Yes if on March 1, 2023 Kyrsten Sinema is listed on https://www.democrats.senate.gov/about-senate-dems/our-caucus. Otherwise No.
Background
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/sinema-arizona-senate-independent-00073216
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it.
In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/us/politics/kyrsten-sinema-democrats.html
Ms. Sinema has not said whether she would caucus with the Democrats, as do two other independent senators, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. She told Politico that she would not caucus with Republicans, and that her ideology and voting habits would not change.
Note: it's not clearly whether it would matter whether she officially caucuses with the Democrats. The impact depends on to what extent she continues to vote with them on legislation and Senate committees and floor procedure. But her decision on whether to officially caucus with the Democrats may provide some signal about those aspects.
Fine print
If this page moves or becomes available, equivalent official sources may be used instead.
Related
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-senate-democrats-hold-a-strict)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-kyrsten-sinema-caucus-with-the)
|
2022-12-09T07:44:38
|
2023-04-02T10:57:58
|
2023-04-02T10:57:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1c1m6tOXDgnAdYwzhSfB
|
Will Kyrsten Sinema caucus with the Senate Democrats on November 1, 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if on November 1, 2024 Kyrsten Sinema is listed on https://www.democrats.senate.gov/about-senate-dems/our-caucus. Otherwise No.
Background
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/sinema-arizona-senate-independent-00073216
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it.
In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/us/politics/kyrsten-sinema-democrats.html
Ms. Sinema has not said whether she would caucus with the Democrats, as do two other independent senators, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. She told Politico that she would not caucus with Republicans, and that her ideology and voting habits would not change.
Note: it's not clearly whether it would matter whether she officially caucuses with the Democrats. The impact depends on to what extent she continues to vote with them on legislation and Senate committees and floor procedure. But her decision on whether to officially caucus with the Democrats may provide some signal about those aspects.
Fine print
If this page moves or becomes available, equivalent official sources may be used instead.
Related
[markets]
|
2022-12-09T06:44:16
|
2024-11-01T16:59:00
|
2024-11-01T18:34:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tjS0LKeFsuXNxf7ExYoR
|
Will Kyrsten Sinema win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?
|
Resolves to YES if Kyrsten Sinema wins the 5 November 2024 US Senate election in Arizona, regardless of whether it is as a Democrat, Republican, independent or member of another party. Resolves to NO if she does not stand or fails to win.
|
2022-12-09T04:24:37
|
2024-03-06T13:18:47
|
2024-03-06T13:18:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0mI0KsfcCn4ZRfNHwXiz
|
Will a liberal candidate win the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election?
|
Wisconsin Supreme Court elections are officially non-partisan, but the justices still have political leanings. I will resolve based on what reliable sources say about whether the new justice is liberal or conservative (or equivalently Democrat-aligned or Republican-aligned). If the new justice is widely reported to be a moderate aligned with neither party I will resolve to PROB. This market refers to the scheduled election on April 4 to replace retiring justice Patience D. Roggensack, not any other elections that may occur in 2023.
|
2022-12-09T03:09:26
|
2023-04-05T00:43:53
|
2023-04-05T00:43:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pdDNisOAbXqcqT6RI1pd
|
Will there be protests in China due to rising COVID cases by June 2023?
|
The November–December protests were against the Zero COVID policy and because of draconian government actions. Now that Xi decided on the complete opposite, experts in China estimate that 80–90% of the nation will contract the disease (compared with less than 1/3 in the U.S. currently). Will there be one or more protests because of rising COVID cases and deaths, against the Living with COVID policy, and because of government inaction, by the end of June 2023?
The protests must be major enough to be reported by reliable sources such as BBC, PBS, NPR, NYT, WSJ, CBS, CNN, etc., or meet Wikipedia's notability guideline.
|
2022-12-08T22:29:38
|
2023-07-07T18:15:00
|
2023-07-07T18:15:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FCUiv7qOHdmrA2mQO737
|
Will China declare the Zero COVID policy again by March 2023?
|
Will China declare the Zero COVID policy again, after temporarily easing restrictions and 'living with COVID', by the end of March 2023?
This refers to the central government or the CCP central committee. For example, Xi Jinping calls for, endorses, or proposes the Zero COVID policy again at a provincial-level or above meeting.
|
2022-12-08T22:14:10
|
2023-04-04T18:00:00
|
2023-04-05T00:06:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bnsKMDJRfWBNLwmQaVYo
|
Will SBF testify?
|
At his trial. N/A if no trial.
|
2022-12-08T20:35:56
|
2023-10-27T11:17:10
|
2023-10-27T11:17:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z2yWYL3pcDbUT5R0qC46
|
Will SBF take a plea deal?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-08T20:10:15
|
2023-11-02T17:39:01
|
2023-11-02T17:39:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V0c3LOTGlRdRMOyDKHBX
|
Will EAGxBoston 2023 happen before June 2023?
|
This market resolves to "YES" if the conference EAGxBoston 2023 completely happens before June 1, 2023. To resolve to "YES", it does not need to be exactly called "EAGxBoston 2023", but needs to be similar at its core (i.e. a conference for students or professionals new to EA, with a focus on networking and learning about EA cause areas, geographically in the Boston metropolitan area).
This market resolves to "NO" if no such conference happens before June 2023.
|
2022-12-08T15:38:05
|
2023-06-01T15:37:00
|
2023-06-02T01:34:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dAUKAxFWiqknOMSpmPsZ
|
Will Twitter file for bankruptcy by EOY 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-08T11:25:32
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:30:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o6fnOS2MFC4pi7OECcq6
|
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2024 elections?
|
Resolves YES if after the 2024 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.
If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
|
2022-12-08T08:23:49
|
2024-11-06T18:33:27
|
2024-11-06T18:33:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cGtUBVSMQLqHCGUKCdi0
|
Will Conjecture produce work that they believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?
|
Conjecture recently released their 8 month retrospective, in which they shared their belief that they had yet to make meaningful progress on the alignment problem.
I will resolve this market to "Yes" if any of Conjecture's three founders (Connor Leahy, Sid Black, or Gabriel Alfour), or any other person who I deem as plausibly being able to speak authoritatively on Conjecture's behalf, publically state that they believe work carried out by Conjecture consitutes meaningful progress towards solving the alignment problem. If no such statement is made by Jan 1st 2024, I will resolve the market as "No".
|
2022-12-08T06:51:49
|
2023-12-31T16:00:00
|
2024-01-18T12:37:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f7E1hCf8BTquwrHi22JE
|
Will Putin and Xi JinPing meet in person before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-08T06:27:18
|
2023-04-05T15:11:46
|
2023-04-05T15:11:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jccG0ZLYNERV9eLGMPLd
|
Will Joe Biden and Xi JinPing meet in person before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-08T06:26:59
|
2023-11-16T00:30:04
|
2023-11-16T00:30:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Qq4fZWK3RyIL1JQciKs
|
Will a nuclear weapon cause over 100,000 deaths in 2023?
|
inclusing tests
|
2022-12-08T06:08:05
|
2023-12-30T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T06:22:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GicyNGDVDn18hI9xKqlT
|
Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2023?
|
inclusing tests
|
2022-12-08T06:07:49
|
2023-12-30T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T06:22:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JThQX3hfV0YUp1R96hWd
|
Will there be an attempted autogolpe during 2023?
|
An autogolpe is a self-coup. January 6th is an example.
|
2022-12-07T18:52:59
|
2023-11-09T00:23:17
|
2023-11-09T00:23:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XZCgR2mMOCkmoJuFaEg9
|
Will Elon Musk be the richest man in the world in the end of 2023?
|
Resolves as of 2023.12.31.
|
2022-12-07T17:26:47
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-05T21:59:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4KtkoB2zNhcJYEUfZmrK
|
Will Elon Musk be the richest man in the world in the end of 2023?
|
Resolves as of 2023.12.31.
|
2022-12-07T17:16:51
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:27:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG
|
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
|
as reported by the BBC
|
2022-12-07T14:04:27
|
2024-11-04T15:00:00
|
2024-11-06T00:54:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kIV5reLdIlA1pzoTPO6x
|
Will Tether (USDT) ever trade under 0.7 in 2023?
|
Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/duck/will-tether-usdt-ever-trade-under-0 which was for 2022
Question resolves to YES if at least one candle's lowest price on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) goes under 0.7 USD.
Dec 15, 5:48pm: Will Tether (USDT) trade under 0.7 in 2023? → Will Tether (USDT) ever trade under 0.7 in 2023?
|
2022-12-07T09:57:47
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:58:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aOiNyKJRYJYJjEsKyO0g
|
Will Carvana file for bankruptcy before March 1, 2023?
|
Context:
"Carvana shares tank as bankruptcy concerns grow for used car retailer" https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/carvana-shares-tank-as-bankruptcy-concerns-grow-for-used-car-retailer.html
|
2022-12-07T09:34:39
|
2023-03-01T06:44:44
|
2023-03-01T06:44:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ffLTfDNqYLP2iiHiIhc8
|
Will Sam Altman be Time's Person of the Year 2023
|
OpenAI seems to be ahead of everyone else in the LLM race at the moment, and GPT-4 is rumoured to come out early next year 👀
If Sam Altman is identified by name as one of the Time people of the year this will resolve YES. I.e. "Sam Altman and ChatGPT" is a YES, but "Everyone" or "You" is a NO.
|
2022-12-07T09:30:20
|
2023-12-06T10:24:40
|
2023-12-06T10:24:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gjO13TjcgLoJzWIfBbog
|
Will the US Supreme Court rule in favor of Lorie Smith, the "web designer who opposes same-sex marriage", in the case 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis?
|
This market will resolve to "YES" if the Supreme Court reverses or vacates the lower court's decision in 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/303_Creative_LLC_v._Elenis), and "NO" if the Supreme Court affirms the lower court's decision or otherwise dismisses the case without vacating the decision below.
See https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/12/conservative-justices-seem-poised-to-side-with-web-designer-who-opposes-same-sex-marriage/ for quote in the question.
|
2022-12-07T03:50:00
|
2023-06-30T09:20:55
|
2023-06-30T09:20:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lIPkE9oLw7dmb8zZwXCj
|
Will Destiny stream on Train's platform Kick by June 2023?
|
Train's new streaming site is https://kick.com/
Just 1 stream would count.
|
2022-12-06T23:15:33
|
2023-03-26T07:06:41
|
2023-03-26T07:06:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DKPoiScN7VErdGiyoXcM
|
Will Elon Musk change his Twitter profile picture before the end of 2023?
|
The current twitter profile picture of @elonmusk
https://twitter.com/elonmusk
[image]
|
2022-12-06T18:44:48
|
2023-07-24T21:42:55
|
2023-07-24T21:42:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JnheXMAtvw22JRIHjOoO
|
Will United States be the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup Winner?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-06T18:13:29
|
2023-08-10T06:24:03
|
2023-08-10T06:24:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gRIfKwaJWvkd3QEKMtpL
|
Will New Zealand be the 2023 Rugby World Cup winner?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-06T18:11:32
|
2023-10-29T01:58:20
|
2023-10-29T01:58:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PrbozIgbt6NReRRG341x
|
Will South Africa be the 2023 Rugby World Cup winner?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-06T18:10:27
|
2023-10-29T01:22:34
|
2023-10-29T01:22:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eAec4U2atwHz9Ql0sSqM
|
Will Hunter Biden be pardoned by his father at any point in his father's current term?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-06T15:00:35
|
2024-12-01T20:35:57
|
2024-12-01T20:35:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ewOMVZgu2K7RjKhfuhCI
|
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2025?
|
If NASA announces that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon before December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Else, the market resolves to No.
|
2022-12-06T08:39:34
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cN8drTnbkr6A3Re2kCkZ
|
Will Alphabet release a service similar to ChatGPT before Jan 1st, 2024?
|
A service similar to ChatGPT released by Alphabet should satisfy the following conditions:
Mainly uses a chat UI to interact with users
Mainly uses a Large Language Model to generate responses
At least 1 million unique users within 1 month of release (someone who used it only once counts as a user)
Released by any subsidiary of Alphabet such as Google or DeepMind.
Dec 6, 3:14pm: Will Alphabet release a service similar to ChatGPT before 1 January 2024? → Will Alphabet release a service similar to ChatGPT before Jan 1st, 2024?
|
2022-12-06T06:07:22
|
2023-07-06T06:50:28
|
2023-07-06T06:50:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5OnTru6dBYh03rKy0z1Q
|
Will SBF be dead before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2024-12-31.
|
2022-12-06T06:01:11
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:34:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iw7rsJnGnLiyyqvgD8oh
|
Will SBF be dead before the end of 2023?
|
Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2023-12-31.
|
2022-12-06T05:59:49
|
2023-12-31T07:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:42:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-piAS3nrk5sb3SxLgvYD8
|
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2024?
|
When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2024, otherwise NO.
This is analagous to the https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ but for contest programming instead of math.
Rules:
The AI has only as much time as a human competitor, but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.
The AI must be evaluated under conditions substantially equivalent to human contestants, e.g. the same time limits and submission judging rules. The AI cannot query the Internet.
The AI must not have access to the problems before being evaluated on them, e.g. the problems cannot be included in the training set. It should also be reasonably verifiable, e.g. it should not use any data which was uploaded after the latest competition.
The contest must be most current IOI contest at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).
This will resolve using the same resolution criteria as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12467/ai-wins-ioi-gold-medal/, i.e. it resolves YES if the Metaculus question resolves to a date prior to the deadline.
Grouped questions
[markets]Background:
In Feb 2022, DeepMind published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming: https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode. When will an AI system perform as well as the top humans?
The International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) is an annual competitive programming contest for high school students, and is one of the most well-known and prestigous competitive programming contests.
Gold medals in the IOI are awarded to approximately the top 1/12 (8%) of contestants. Each country can send their top 4 contestants to the IOI, i.e. a gold medal is top 8% of an already selected pool of contestants.
Scoring is based on solving problems correctly. There are two competition days, and on each day there are 5 hours to solve three problems. Scoring is not based on how fast you submit solutions. Contestants can submit up to 50 solution attempts for each problem and see limited feedback (such as "correct answer" or "time limit exceeded") for each submission.
|
2022-12-06T05:26:33
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T10:55:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rgdw8WtPumwtQ5zdlwX7
|
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
|
When will an AI compete well enough on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) to earn the equivalent of a gold medal (top ~30 human performance)? Resolves YES if it happens before Jan 1 2025, otherwise NO.
This is analagous to the https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ but for contest programming instead of math.
Rules:
The AI has only as much time as a human competitor, but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.
The AI must be evaluated under conditions substantially equivalent to human contestants, e.g. the same time limits and submission judging rules. The AI cannot query the Internet.
The AI must not have access to the problems before being evaluated on them, e.g. the problems cannot be included in the training set. It should also be reasonably verifiable, e.g. it should not use any data which was uploaded after the latest competition.
The contest must be most current IOI contest at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).
This will resolve using the same resolution criteria as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12467/ai-wins-ioi-gold-medal/, i.e. it resolves YES if the Metaculus question resolves to a date prior to the deadline.
Grouped questions
[markets]Background:
In Feb 2022, DeepMind published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming: https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode. When will an AI system perform as well as the top humans?
The International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) is an annual competitive programming contest for high school students, and is one of the most well-known and prestigous competitive programming contests.
Gold medals in the IOI are awarded to approximately the top 1/12 (8%) of contestants. Each country can send their top 4 contestants to the IOI, i.e. a gold medal is top 8% of an already selected pool of contestants.
Scoring is based on solving problems correctly. There are two competition days, and on each day there are 5 hours to solve three problems. Scoring is not based on how fast you submit solutions. Contestants can submit up to 50 solution attempts for each problem and see limited feedback (such as "correct answer" or "time limit exceeded") for each submission.
Update: Changed the resolution criteria - now the AI does not need to be published before the IOI, instead the requirement is it cannot use any training data from the IOI. I'll compensate you if you traded before this change and wish to reverse your trade.
|
2022-12-06T05:13:47
|
2025-01-01T09:25:47
|
2025-01-01T09:25:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EMfRZD7CEL2asqW5dSAd
|
Will the spy close the year 2023 in green?
|
The market resolves if the spy Etf closes the year 2023 Jan 1st to dec 31st in green
|
2022-12-06T01:44:12
|
2023-12-29T08:30:54
|
2023-12-29T08:30:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rwQE4R6g4gCQP5iJeiz6
|
Will an AI win Advent of Code? (2023)
|
https://adventofcode.com
|
2022-12-05T21:28:59
|
2023-12-25T21:59:00
|
2024-01-12T07:23:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hB7JEgCi3h9fYLKW0iBm
|
Will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war in 2023?
|
Resolves YES if at any point during 2023 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire for a period of two consecutive weeks OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties.
|
2022-12-05T21:19:32
|
2023-12-31T04:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:06:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FNAd7QlqGK1uIHJhao6I
|
Will Anthropic OR Deepmind publish their alignment plan before March 1, 2023?
|
Currently OpenAI has published an alignment plan. Resolves YES if either Anthropic or Deepmind publishes their alignment plan.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Lr99AGm4czFK7bsgj/a-challenge-for-agi-organizations-and-a-challenge-for
|
2022-12-05T15:01:26
|
2023-03-01T15:59:00
|
2023-03-01T19:42:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YeeweBxhSdG1c65txKLQ
|
Will Finland join NATO by the 15th of April?
|
Resolves YES IF Finland joins NATO before the 15th of April And NO if it doesn't.
[image]
|
2022-12-05T03:50:53
|
2023-04-04T09:02:47
|
2023-04-04T09:02:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nwl8UgIDTdBjtQpRwMsq
|
Will the Miami Heat make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Miami Heat win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-05T03:19:51
|
2023-05-30T16:00:00
|
2023-05-31T20:52:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dchxiQkTEn0BRdsz3kKf
|
Will the Denver Nuggets make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Denver Nuggets win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-05T03:18:48
|
2023-05-24T03:57:02
|
2023-05-24T03:57:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tditUf6BhjpDRYblEOe6
|
Will the Golden State Warriors make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Golden State Warriors win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-05T03:18:17
|
2023-05-14T09:43:57
|
2023-05-14T09:43:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-83hh8sbz6CzU9CZvZrM5
|
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Philadelphia 76ers win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-05T03:14:53
|
2023-05-15T07:19:02
|
2023-05-15T07:19:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zMn3jPsvG1MqJNSzjqcB
|
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Milwaukee Bucks win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-05T03:14:22
|
2023-04-26T22:09:49
|
2023-04-26T22:09:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0Zr3UwcrkRbYUBMlG1BS
|
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Memphis Grizzlies win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-05T03:13:51
|
2023-04-29T02:50:02
|
2023-04-29T02:50:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nrUQHvNTRoZbOpJMFO9l
|
Will the Phoenix Suns make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Phoenix Suns win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-05T03:13:20
|
2023-05-14T09:47:13
|
2023-05-14T09:47:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YMDIKDDCuz2IQUvB0uQY
|
Will the Boston Celtics make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Boston Celtics win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
Market created with manifoldr.
|
2022-12-05T03:10:07
|
2023-05-30T16:00:00
|
2023-05-31T20:52:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IIRoZLfePNRaiw6AmiSO
|
Will an AI-authored story win a short story contest by 2024?
|
This question resolves "YES" if there is a substantive allegations that an AI-authored short story has won a short story award in any genre by 00:00 UTC on Jan 1, 2024, and "NO" otherwise. The award must not be restricted to juvenile authors. (A pure poetry award would not count, but epic poetry or storytelling through poetry might.)
Context: Two years ago large language models could create plausible short texts, but the longer the text requested, the more likely the model would output something recognizable as nonhuman. Have language models reached the point that they can create plausible award-winning short stories?
|
2022-12-04T22:46:06
|
2024-01-01T01:00:00
|
2024-01-04T12:32:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BnFRQFXADoeXeW6xufx8
|
Will SBF go on the Lex Fridman podcast by December 31st 2023?
|
Pretty self-explanatory
|
2022-12-04T12:11:06
|
2023-12-30T13:14:13
|
2023-12-30T13:14:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kBM8iHPBMiNzdcSkHVxq
|
Will any of the following people come out as transgender before the end of 2023? Donald Trump, Elon Musk, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, Mark Zuckerberg, Scott Alexander
|
Must be a sincere coming-out, not a joke. Must express a strong desire to be the opposite biological sex, or intention to take cross-sex hormones, or consistently request to be addressed by opposite sex pronouns.
|
2022-12-04T11:34:47
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-02T09:37:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kaij5D26S0XDhdHKFLQC
|
Will OpenAI release a search engine before 2024? [Read description]
|
Beta products don't count
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 7:59 pm
For the effects of this market ChatGPT browsing plugin could count as search engine.
|
2022-12-04T05:16:51
|
2023-10-19T03:46:36
|
2023-10-19T03:46:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iN9o6W3kI89Vl2a2vGfq
|
Will Joe Biden openly convert to Protestantism by the end of his current term?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-03T22:03:40
|
2025-01-19T22:00:00
|
2025-01-20T11:42:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q8yCNgWK5AwsFb7St1PP
|
Will the Democratic candidate win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-03T19:47:20
|
2024-11-06T16:03:05
|
2024-11-06T16:03:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0MbcVw4T1py0KIcAutVY
|
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2023 WDC?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-03T19:02:07
|
2023-10-15T09:12:01
|
2023-10-15T09:12:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VOIEYnqgZO7DplRu2BVc
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 WDC?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-03T19:01:41
|
2023-10-15T09:11:50
|
2023-10-15T09:11:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ycoukyQQ4rYpjT2C3FUS
|
Will India have a larger population than China on December 31st 2023.
|
Resolution source will be Our World in Data.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population?time=2004..latest&country=IND~CHN
|
2022-12-03T16:13:01
|
2023-12-30T14:35:29
|
2023-12-30T14:35:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hrcSNOx7vbeYJ13xDwiB
|
By EOY 2023, will prominent AIs resist attempts to generate ideological conformity statements?
|
Recent advances in AI chatbots have drawn attention to the ability of LLMs to handle generic writing tasks, such as writing emails or academic essays. It has also been widely documented that these AIs are programmed to refuse or dodge questions that would infringe on contemporary taboos, such as correlations between race and crime rates. Many "hacks" have been demonstrated, such as telling an AI that it needs to pretend to be a character that believes something taboo, but the key is that the AIs clearly resist these questions.
Another trend that has drawn attention recently is the increasing popularity of "diversity statements" in academia and elsewhere, which many people feel they are being forced to write in order to signal alligiance or submission to an ideology they do not agree with, or at lease feel they should be able to question as any other. Many of these people would gladly use an AI to generate a diversity statement, but this would likely anger those demanding them.
So the question arrises: will the generation of these diversity statements, or other similar professions of political belief, be resisted by the AIs?
This will resolve YES if:
at any time until EOY 2023, 4 out of the top 5 publicly available AIs are shown to refuse or dodge direct attempts to generate professions of political belief
I personally judge that a strong preponderance of AI technology is refusing to generate these statements (I will not bet)
Insufficient/irrelevant:
AIs can be tricked or "hacked" into generating them
only a slight majority of top AI chatbots refuse the generation
new technology is developed to try to detect if ideology statements are computer-generated
|
2022-12-03T08:46:44
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-03T22:27:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RZjt93oPD5ietXJURf1f
|
Will Kanye West's (@kanyewest) profile be active on Twitter on April 6, 2023?
|
12 am et
Jan 6 market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/will-kanye-wests-kanyewest-profile)related:
[markets]
Close date updated to 2023-04-06 11:59 pm
|
2022-12-03T05:59:31
|
2023-04-06T09:45:22
|
2023-04-06T09:45:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ABQPFzmHWzMNRj1zpyty
|
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be Trump's running mate?
|
From Wikipedia:
Reportedly, Trump has "repeatedly" discussed the possibility of choosing United States Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate.[8] Greene has claimed that she is in talks with Trump to become his running mate.[9]
Resolves NO if Trump announces a different running mate or drops out before announcing one. Resolves N/A if Trump dies without suspending his campaign.
|
2022-12-02T22:50:11
|
2024-07-15T16:38:55
|
2024-07-15T16:38:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Wu55eK2YUyarXkUP2gQI
|
Will any municipality in the United States implement a mask mandate by the end of 2023?
|
Clarification: This would apply to a general mask mandate like was commonly seen in 2020 and 2021 that applied to private businesses. Ones applying only to certain people such as government employees, in only specific government buildings or hospitals or just schools does not apply and will not resolve this YES.
|
2022-12-02T21:28:01
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T17:50:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UBTIHJ3vbKov0HrWEB0b
|
Will the "Leftovers" Podcast by Ethan Klein and Hasanabi end or take an indefinite break before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-02T21:20:20
|
2023-11-14T23:31:13
|
2023-11-14T23:31:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TRzNTv8QWSHFaJo12qES
|
Will Xi Jinping visit Japan by the end of 2023?
|
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/12/02/national/china-japan-xi-visit-guest-relations/
|
2022-12-02T15:20:58
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:00:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WeiYxCcg0ksP6Vwj5ipr
|
Will Google acquire Twitter by EOY 2023?
|
This market resolves positively if a joint press release announces Google intent to acquire Twitter, with price. The deal does not need to actually close (for instance, failing due to regulatory issues will not prevent positive resolution of the market), just a formal agreement to be acquired.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
|
2022-12-02T12:12:41
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:30:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vQC4u5hJJBntZ9WH8JbB
|
Will any streaming service pull Kanye West's music before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-02T11:24:14
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T17:50:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-skOczsGCpLFvjjsxqvWm
|
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2023?
|
The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019 during the Trump administration. There were also government shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. Will the US government shutdown again in 2023 for any amount of time?
Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-952b953ae6f2)
|
2022-12-02T10:39:47
|
2023-12-31T21:04:27
|
2023-12-31T21:04:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HY7e1BwnXDaEyXLgCT0D
|
Will Kanye West be unbanned from Twitter before the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-02T09:58:05
|
2023-08-04T22:17:23
|
2023-08-04T22:17:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-brMzePlNXvebBSiegH5Y
|
Will Twitter be banned in the EU at any time before the end of 2023?
|
The FT has reported that the EU has issued a stern warning to Elon Musk that Twitter could be banned on the continent if it doesn't meet content moderation standards. If anything I think this is likely to antagonize Musk and force a confrontation. Will Elon call their bluffing?
[image]
|
2022-12-02T09:45:54
|
2023-12-31T14:16:30
|
2023-12-31T14:16:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MBVKIt5fvZeUZ5uK7gvt
|
Will the US officially enter a recession in 2023? (Announcement by NBER)
|
Resolution: Resolves YES if by the end of 2024, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred anytime in 2023). Resolves NO otherwise.
Background: The official definition of "recession" in the US is if a committee of economists - the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - determines it is a recession, defined as "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months".
NBER determines whether recessions occurred and their dates retrospectively: "We wait until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions." So official recession determinations are typically made long after the recession actually occurred because it takes time for the data analysis. For example, the April 2020 recession was announced in July 2021. See https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements for historical data on NBER's previous determinations.
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession:
two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real gross domestic product (real GDP) is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession. In the United States, a recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".
|
2022-12-02T08:38:36
|
2025-01-01T10:53:14
|
2025-01-01T10:53:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W563gk6YOoqvtfcYtDxc
|
Will Indian population surpass China by end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-02T07:21:12
|
2023-08-10T13:20:32
|
2023-08-10T13:20:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-edwkRHxJIZeQ5tXQtIuO
|
Will Kanye West release a new album in 2023?
|
While this seems straightforward, note that I will require that the album be successfully released, i.e. it must actually be publicly accessible somehow. I will accept an EP, but not singles. Any other situation should resolve to NO.
I might bet on this myself if it seems worthwhile. I don't see any way for this to resolve N/A, but I suppose it's possible somehow?
EDIT: I am directing you guys to a comment I made below - the album leak does not count. It's got to be officially released!
|
2022-12-02T06:13:12
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-02T05:51:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BjZLPJvcmtXeZ2fIvIvc
|
Will Twitter unban Kanye West by May 1, 2023?
|
resolves YES if https://twitter.com/kanyewest no longer says this account is suspended.
|
2022-12-02T02:44:11
|
2023-05-01T14:59:00
|
2023-05-03T04:51:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OFUsr1P9ZeM2JMNjUHAe
|
Will Ron DeSantis be accused of sexual assault before the 2024 Election?
|
This will resolve to Yes if a notable sexual assault allegation is made against Ron DeSantis before the 2024 election, on a level of credibility similar to other accusations against political figures such as Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Brett Kavanaugh.
Conditions that will result in a Yes resolution:
There is a presistent Wikipedia article or subsection called "Ron DeSantis sexual assault allegation(s)" or similar
The New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, or similar high-profile national newspaper publishes a story primarily about a sexual assault allegation against Ron DeSantis.
Close date updated to 2024-11-05 11:59 pm
|
2022-12-02T01:24:19
|
2024-11-05T15:59:00
|
2024-11-05T16:10:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AdyXk3FHlOW59yqDg11c
|
Will Elon Musk have a brain-computer interface installed on himself for non-health reasons by the end of 2024?
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YreDYmXTYi4&t=1454s
https://twitter.com/ashleevance/status/1598146583438426112
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1598152789569736705
Resolves positively if Elon Musk publicly declares (via his own twitter account, on a Neuralink demo presentation, or credible media that he explictly confirms to be accurate) that he's had any kind of BCI/BMI (brain-computer interface/brain-machine interface) installed on himself as augmentation and not as a way to treat a health condition (similar criteria to this question on metaculus, but narrowed down to an implant intended to allow him to deliberately interact with devices outside his own body).
2023
|
2022-12-01T16:59:07
|
2024-12-31T19:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:44:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-elq4L7hDWkZyybZQmnUi
|
Will Instagram ban Kanye West by May 1, 2023?
|
resolves YES if https://www.instagram.com/kanyewest/ says this account is not active
|
2022-12-01T15:44:30
|
2023-05-05T14:59:00
|
2023-05-06T06:34:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YvlRNShBhTIV7frnlJaq
|
Will Henry Kissinger die in 2023?
|
Will resolve "Yes" if Henry Kissinger dies between 1st January 2023 and December 31st 2023.
Will resolve "No" if Henry Kissinger is not dead by December 31st 2023 23:59 or if Kissinger dies before 1st January 2023.
Henry Kissinger is currently 99 years old and turns 100 on May 23rd.
|
2022-12-01T15:12:47
|
2023-11-29T22:52:40
|
2023-11-29T22:52:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d6Ub5j7besIsESg7Rxlc
|
Will Spotify or Apple Music deplatform Kanye West?
|
This market will resolve to YES, if by the end of 2023, at least one of these platforms will delete the majority of Kanye West's music, so it's no longer available to stream or download.
Kanye West's discography includes all of his full-length studio albums, which include The College Dropout, Late Registration, Graduation, 808s & Heartbreak, My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy, Yeezus, The Life of Pablo, Ye, Jesus is King, and Donda/Donda (Deluxe).
This market does not consider the availability of albums which feature Kanye or those on which he has collaborated on.
|
2022-12-01T14:24:21
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T22:07:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B4mRtem5GAUhSR8AB1mD
|
Will Tucker Carlson have Nick Fuentes on before the end of 2023?
|
If Fuentes appears on Tucker's show before the end of 2023 this will resolve YES.
Otherwise, this will resolve NO.
|
2022-12-01T12:46:40
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-02T22:07:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ndJNTZ68TsphAhWsz2xl
|
Will a device from Neuralink receive FDA approval in 2023 for implantation in a human?
|
Dec 1, 5:53pm: Will a device from Neuralink receive FDA approval for implantation in a human? → Will a device from Neuralink receive FDA approval in 2023 for implantation in a human?
|
2022-12-01T08:53:22
|
2023-06-09T10:25:09
|
2023-06-09T10:25:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4nZE9UbYP4rb7O1wMZuQ
|
Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-12-01T06:03:21
|
2024-12-30T20:59:00
|
2025-01-19T07:25:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Dd03Pd8RjdsAgTfwrfzU
|
Will a Neuralink device be implanted in a human brain by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves to YES if Neuralink implants a chip into a human brain before Jan 1, 2025. I will rely on official statements or demos, or highly credible media reports. It is NOT necessary that the patient survives, or that the device even functions properly. The resolution is based solely on whether the device is implanted and connected to any living human brain.
In the case that this is ambiguous, such as rumors that the project is underway, but without publicly accessible proof, I will use my judgement to resolve. I will not bet.
Dec 1, 10:05am: Will Neuralink implant a chip in a human brain by the end of 2024? → Will a Neuralink device be implanted in a human brain by the end of 2024?
|
2022-12-01T03:26:19
|
2024-03-20T14:49:20
|
2024-03-20T14:49:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y78omdm66Mp2qj7JNKOH
|
Will a Neuralink device be implanted in a human brain by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves to YES if Neuralink implants a chip into a human brain before Jan 1, 2024. I will rely on official statements or demos, or highly credible media reports. It is NOT necessary that the patient survives, or that the device even functions properly. The resolution is based solely on whether the device is implanted and connected to any living human brain.
In the case that this is ambiguous, such as rumors that the project is underway, but without publicly accessible proof, I will use my judgement to resolve. I will not bet.
Dec 1, 10:04am: Will Neuralink implant a chip in a human brain by the end of 2023? → Will a Neuralink device be implanted in a human brain by the end of 2023?
|
2022-12-01T03:09:05
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:34:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JjV19UASbjTg8aCy8HhY
|
Will $USDT Tether crash to below $5 Billion Market Cap by the end of 2023?
|
To resolve in a YES: The Market Capitalization of $USDT Tether at any time between the creation of this poll and the end of 2023 must be $5 Billion or lower. Failure to meet this condition will resolve this market as NO.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
|
2022-12-01T00:55:44
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-03T15:40:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yDFlYHMHmlcUO3QruXsh
|
Will Marijuana/Cannabis no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023?
|
For this market to be resolved as a YES: The United States Drug Enforcement Administration must remove Marijuana/Cannabis as listed under Schedule I classification. This is the only condition to resolve YES.
If Marijuana/Cannabis is moved to a different type of classification or category of substance as listed by United States Drug Enforcement Administration, then that is irrelevant. So long as Marijuana/Cannabis is not within the Schedule I tier, then this market will still resolve as YES.
Dec 1, 3:33am: Will Marijuana no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023? → Will Marijuana/Cannabis no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023?
Dec 1, 3:33am: Will Marijuana/Cannabis no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023? → Will Marijuana no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023?
Dec 1, 3:33am: Will Marijuana no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023? → Will Marijuana/Cannabis no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023?
|
2022-12-01T00:33:04
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:08:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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