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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-vFJBlyzQd8Nr7dxcicq0
|
Will Neuralink be implemented into the human brain by May 31, 2023?
|
https://watcher.guru/news/elon-musks-neuralink-ready-for-implementation-in-six-months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-01/musk-s-neuralink-hopes-for-human-trials-approval-within-six-months
|
2022-11-30T22:20:57
|
2023-05-31T16:59:00
|
2023-06-03T09:58:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gZbRMajq0vBqfQ8jjYZG
|
Will the European Union fine Twitter by April 1?
|
A top European Union official warned Twitter owner Elon Musk on Wednesday that the social media platform must take significant steps to comply with EU content moderation laws, and that European officials will be monitoring closely for compliance.
Twitter could face a Europe-wide ban or fines of up to 6 per cent of global turnover if it breached the law
This market will resolve to YES if the EU will put a fine on Twitter with amount greater than $50 million.
read more: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/30/eu-raises-prospect-of-big-fine-or-ban-if-twitter-fails-to-follow-new-legislation
|
2022-11-30T15:30:11
|
2023-04-01T14:59:00
|
2023-04-02T03:32:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c2mBiR4DEKMCp4frjJWa
|
Will the European Union ban Twitter by April 1?
|
A top European Union official warned Twitter owner Elon Musk on Wednesday that the social media platform must take significant steps to comply with EU content moderation laws, and that European officials will be monitoring closely for compliance.
Twitter could face a Europe-wide ban or fines of up to 6 per cent of global turnover if it breached the law
read more: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/30/eu-raises-prospect-of-big-fine-or-ban-if-twitter-fails-to-follow-new-legislation
Dec 1, 12:30am: Will European Union ban Twitter by April 1? → Will the European Union ban Twitter by April 1?
|
2022-11-30T15:27:51
|
2023-04-01T14:59:00
|
2023-04-02T03:33:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LBpM7JDp8UqNPuHZB0NA
|
Will Destiny be banned from any Social Media Platform in the first half of 2023?
|
Conditions:
Platform: Top 10, being Facebook, Youtube, WhatsApp, Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, Pinterest, Reddit, LinkedIn, Twitter (Source).
Period: The 1st of January, 2023 up until the 30th of June, 2023
Person: Any public account of Steven Kenneth Bonnell II, this excludes some retroactive leak of a private burner having been banned.
Market will be resolved to YES if all three of the above are met.
[image]Dec 1, 12:11am: Will Destiny be banned from any social media platform in the first half of 2023? → Will Destiny be banned from any Social Media Platform in the first half of 2023?
|
2022-11-30T14:44:00
|
2023-06-30T14:59:00
|
2023-07-07T08:55:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZEAncUTEuM6W1Ll8Ed2o
|
Will at least two new companies enter the top 10 list of publicly traded US companies by the end of June, 2023?
|
As of today, https://companiesmarketcap.com/ lists Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, Visa, and Exxon Mobil as having the largest market capitalization of the publically traded US companies. Will the list at https://companiesmarketcap.com/usa/largest-companies-in-the-usa-by-market-cap/ have at least two new members in the top 10 on June 30th, 2023?
|
2022-11-30T14:23:29
|
2023-06-30T09:59:00
|
2023-06-30T18:18:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0KcccRb1ykzRAVoSOnKK
|
Will medical AI startup Aidoc be acquired before December 1, 2023?
|
Aidoc is very successful medical imaging AI startup with several FDA cleared products in their portfolio and they would make a very attractive acquisition target.
Aidoc has raised $237mm to date.
Resolves YES if Aidoc is acquired before December 1, 2023.
|
2022-11-30T14:17:15
|
2023-11-30T10:59:00
|
2023-11-30T12:20:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cIv75TdewfKpihVEyTU2
|
Will Apple have the largest market cap of any publicly traded US company by the end of 2023?
|
As of today, https://companiesmarketcap.com/ lists Apple as having the largest market capitalization of any publically traded US company, at $2.354 Trillion. Will Apple still be at the top of the list at https://companiesmarketcap.com/usa/largest-companies-in-the-usa-by-market-cap/ on December 31, 2023?
|
2022-11-30T14:12:21
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T08:19:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ChluRtWQ379OJYtB7Dlc
|
Will Meta (Facebook) drop out of the top 30 publicly traded US companies by market cap at any point before the end of 2023?
|
Meta Platforms (Facebook) was the 5th most valuable US company by market capitalization in December 2021. As of November 2022, Meta has fallen to the 19th place. Will Meta fall further, dropping out of the top 30 publicly traded US companies by market cap at any point in 2023?
|
2022-11-30T11:57:59
|
2023-12-31T21:12:10
|
2023-12-31T21:12:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5GIDMu22Un5hkVJmyqNd
|
Will GPT-4 be a superhuman coder?
|
Be it on APPS (https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938) OR on Codeforces (see https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.07814), will GPT-4 (the first released version by OpenAI) be a superhuman coder?
By superhuman, I mean that it beats human best experts (e.g it ranks first on Codeforces competition, or it scores more than 90% in top-1 accuracy on Competition Level problems from APPS).
Close date updated to 2023-04-30 12:59 am
|
2022-11-30T11:46:51
|
2023-04-29T15:59:00
|
2023-07-09T05:12:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Drzx5AwK2aBQMIyYO1cP
|
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader by the next presidential inauguration (20 Jan 2025)?
|
Mitch McConnell is 80 years old and has been the Senate Republican Leader since 2007. He will become the all time longest serving Party Leader in the Senate from either party if he holds the post for another year. Will he resign, die, or be ousted by his caucus before another presidential term?
See same question but for:
before end of 2025
before end of 2026
before end of 2027
before end of 2028
before 2030
|
2022-11-30T09:15:58
|
2024-11-13T12:11:53
|
2024-11-13T12:11:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VYsjcauw34Qru3eVQIxz
|
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Oklahoma City Thunder make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Oklahoma City Thunder qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-30T08:47:04
|
2023-04-15T01:00:00
|
2023-04-15T06:31:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S2LmJX7FA3bDpCiOncrC
|
Will the New Orleans Pelicans make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the New Orleans Pelicans make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the New Orleans Pelicans qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-30T08:45:02
|
2023-04-13T04:04:44
|
2023-04-13T04:04:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TeowziY1WazeX0iHn1Ax
|
Will the Golden State Warriors make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Golden State Warriors make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Golden State Warriors qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-30T08:44:51
|
2023-04-10T00:33:18
|
2023-04-10T00:33:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jB6tj4mPzG8aEqIa85Jg
|
Will Destiny reach 700K subscribers on an odd month?
|
Resolves to 'YES' if the first time Destiny's main Youtube channel reaches 700,000 subscribers occurs in a month with an odd numeric value (e.g. January=1, March=3, May=5).
Resolve 'NO' if the first time this happens is in a month with an even numeric value (e.g. December=12, February=2, April=4).
Market will be cancelled if the channel does not reach 700K subs at any point within the next two years.
|
2022-11-29T23:41:04
|
2023-08-29T08:17:59
|
2023-08-29T08:17:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0QvP6WDXKqZavLrKmk1F
|
Will ContraPoints next video be over an hour long?
|
https://www.youtube.com/@ContraPoints/videos
If the next video posted to ContraPoints channel is over an hour long this market resolves YES.
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-contrapoints-release-another-v)
|
2022-11-29T21:38:50
|
2023-04-17T19:59:33
|
2023-04-17T20:00:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3pnNgkp2iki7P1QudunV
|
Will GPT-4 combine image and text generation to produce illustrated stories?
|
Basically will combine the features of GPT-3 and D-ALLE to create a unified GPT model for text and images.
|
2022-11-29T19:18:33
|
2023-03-15T08:36:08
|
2023-03-15T08:36:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fPirzEg6fWJmYwXC3YmV
|
Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2024?
|
This market resolves positively if either of the following is true:
1. Someone publishes a paper where AI estimated ELO in at least top 10%, with player pool of at least 50 players. The games should be played by rules one of the officially recognized MTG formats and players should not be restricted in their deck choice any further than the format requires.
2. AI gets at least third place in any official MTG tournament with at least 50 players.
3. AI reaches the top 100 rank in MTG Arena.
Edit: Human-designed decks for AI are allowed for the purpose of this question.
|
2022-11-29T02:00:52
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T19:14:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1odvzMW2pIjBFPgXitNr
|
will jreg make a video involving manifold markets, accurate predictions, etc?
|
resolves yes if jreg makes a video involving this site or a site like it, or in general the idea of having calibrated predictions about real events. insider trading encouraged, please try to prevent jreg from making such a video, this site is far too normal for even a professional young man like him.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 12:59 pm
|
2022-11-29T00:07:00
|
2023-12-31T12:59:00
|
2023-12-31T15:37:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FphzGLeIyAx2q4oMSscZ
|
Will Tesla raise the cost of its Full Self Driving software in 2023?
|
As of creating this market Telsa Full Self Driving costs $15,000 to add to any new Tesla vehicle. FSD (Full Self-Driving Capability software) must cost more than $15,000 to add to ANY new Tesla vehicle purchased by the end of 2023 for this market to resolve in a YES. Verified by Tesla.com, official Tesla website.
|
2022-11-28T22:46:50
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T12:07:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eHgEClKJ8H7AUR0K8iyC
|
Will NYT publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024?
|
Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the New York Times publishes an article that mentions Manifold, otherwise NO.
Fine print:
It must specifically mention Manifold by name in the article text, e.g. a screenshot of Manifold would not count.
It must actually refer to Manifold (this website), e.g. the words "manifold markets" next to each other referring to something else wouldn't count.
Resolution will be based on google search site:nytimes.com "manifold markets" or if a article meeting the criteria is linked in the comments.
Clarification: This means that I will examine links found by a google search like this and links posted in the comments to see whether they meet the criteria.
If manifold changes its name, the question will resolve YES if NYT mentions Manifold by either its old or new name.
Clarification: podcasts, videos, etc are not articles.
If an article links to manifold without actually saying manifold in the text, that does not count.
|
2022-11-28T18:12:49
|
2023-10-08T06:42:21
|
2023-10-08T06:42:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vmHXWqx7DgY9xL6OtBFz
|
Will MrGirl reach out to Keffals for his article?
|
Will resolve "Yes" if there's ever evidence from anywhere that MrGirl either reached out or talked to Keffals.
If there is never evidence of this, I will resolve "No" after MrGirl's article drops.
|
2022-11-28T13:34:01
|
2023-07-18T11:39:28
|
2023-07-18T11:39:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z7XCY0YoReI9RAsIWoJT
|
Will the Indiana Pacers make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Indiana Pacers make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Indiana Pacers qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-28T09:29:45
|
2023-04-03T02:14:04
|
2023-04-03T02:14:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a4frXpUL2LJ3dxQBwRVO
|
Will the Chicago Bulls make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Chicago Bulls make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Chicago Bulls qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-28T09:29:42
|
2023-04-15T01:00:00
|
2023-04-15T06:31:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7XmDHAO3TIo3MXLkVCo5
|
Will there exist an image model that can handle the prompt "A regular icosahedron carved out of wood" by 2023-06-01?
|
The title prompt produces the following outputs when I try it on some prominent models (along with an image of an icosahedron in the real world):
[image]None of these are even close to an acceptable image by my standards, though in other trials Stable Diffusion has fared somewhat better.
On 2023-06-01, I will go through every SoTA image model I am aware of and have access to, and obtain four generations from the prompt "A regular icosahedron carved out of wood". I'll settle to YES if any of the models tested yield a success on at least two of the four samples, where a success requires:
All or almost all of the polyhedron is in frame
It is clearly made out of wood
It has well-defined faces that clearly meet along edges and vertices
The faces are pretty close to equilateral (small deviation is OK)
Exactly five faces meet at every vertex
The perspective shown is physically realizable with some orientation of an icosahedron
For comparison, using this prompt with "cube" instead of "icosahedron" gives outputs that easily pass all the above requirements on SD2 and DALL-E, and kind of marginal outputs on MidJourney.
Fine-tuned models won't count, only general-purpose image models that haven't specifically focused on icosahedra or geometric objects or something.
I'll resolve early if there's a model before the resolution date that completely crushes this prompt, but I won't if it only sometimes gets it right (since it might still be the case that I get unlucky draws when sampling on 2023-06-01). I'll accept samples from non-public models if a commenter can credibly exhibit them.
I won't bet in this market.
|
2022-11-28T09:25:11
|
2023-05-31T23:59:00
|
2023-06-16T05:45:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GhmLHI78Q0JE9YFOdy6Z
|
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Los Angeles Lakers make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Los Angeles Lakers qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-28T09:19:32
|
2023-04-12T05:07:09
|
2023-04-12T05:07:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vC5RU0fKtTZNPnvZg1rs
|
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Minnesota Timberwolves make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Minnesota Timberwolves qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-28T09:13:37
|
2023-04-15T01:00:00
|
2023-04-15T06:31:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gURvPp2CuVjkdz8TvWNp
|
Will the Miami Heat make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Miami Heat make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Miami Heat qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-28T09:13:32
|
2023-04-15T01:00:00
|
2023-04-15T06:31:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q3x7dDnXdNX0TONvI4Na
|
Will the Toronto Raptors make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season?
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Toronto Raptors make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Toronto Raptors qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. Starting odds are taken from FiveThirtyEight's forecast on the date of this market's creation.
|
2022-11-28T09:10:47
|
2023-04-13T04:04:20
|
2023-04-13T04:04:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZXxAgpmehpXsPyosf5HN
|
Will any AI solve >=50 IMO problems by the start of 2024?
|
Hyper Tree Proof Search (Meta's math model from May 2022 (which they released some press about in November)) solved 10 IMO problems. Will we see a 5x improvement within one year?
Obviously the IMO problems must not be part of the training dataset.
|
2022-11-28T08:38:09
|
2024-01-03T12:34:05
|
2024-02-08T10:01:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xdLZOswPGiZajUbFja6c
|
Will Destiny talk with Joe Rogan by the end of 2023?
|
Any kind of messages don't count - it has to be a conversation either in person or over a voice call. Doesn't necessarily have to be the Joe Rogan Experience.
|
2022-11-28T05:01:24
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:34:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1WSZQ1JDnOvJCCNfInBd
|
Will Nick Fuentes be disavowed by 'Kan'YE WEST before the Republican Primaries begin?
|
The market will resolve YES if Nick Fuentes is disavowed in a public statement by Kanye West by the start of the Republican Primaries for the Candidacy for President in 2024.
|
2022-11-28T02:57:15
|
2024-01-26T06:30:58
|
2024-01-26T06:30:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mE9XHn84f840DEz7q0h1
|
Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?
|
Will any AI beat the best human competitive programmers in any major coding competition by the end of 2024?
Major coding competitions: ICPC, IOI, TopCoder tournaments, etc. I will also accept something like "solves every problem on Kattis", even if there's no particular competition to point at that it won.
Related markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PeterHroššo/will-ai-outcompete-best-humans-in-c-c91105439712)
|
2022-11-27T21:13:36
|
2024-12-31T12:59:00
|
2025-01-05T20:42:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YpyIqY26DFCl2H8CaIWV
|
Will 2023 be warmer than 2022?
|
I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available), counting equal numbers as a "no". If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022 vs. 2021.
|
2022-11-27T20:54:54
|
2024-01-12T12:54:41
|
2024-01-12T12:54:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nRF0qojPtB4H1I3DiEjs
|
Will Alexander Lukashenko remain President of Belarus by the end of 2023?
|
This market will resolve positively if Alexander Lukashenko holds the office of President of Belarus without interruption until 12/31/2023, at 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
|
2022-11-27T14:44:53
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T14:15:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B8ZqSvPN3p3EQ4FYxrIn
|
Will Destiny sue MrGirl or drop his website after the article?
|
> Chat someone should set up betting markets for whether or not Destiny sues mr girl for the article and whether or not Destiny drops his website after it comes out - ragepope
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm
|
2022-11-27T13:54:07
|
2023-04-13T08:24:33
|
2023-04-13T08:24:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FRgIvvz8G26k7OTON0bx
|
Will Xi Jinping occupy his current office on Jan. 1 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-27T13:29:38
|
2024-01-01T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:07:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qsh4VP9ibkQ3MYSQiZJO
|
Will Ken Griffin be associated with any nine figure real estate or art transactions during 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-27T12:33:15
|
2023-12-25T08:45:07
|
2023-12-25T08:45:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1XZrW8Dd1sybGjVvrw8b
|
Will China's FDA grant approval to an mRNA COVID vaccine by the end of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if China approves a COVID vaccine based on mRNA technology by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not.
|
2022-11-27T12:22:46
|
2023-10-10T03:42:56
|
2023-10-10T03:42:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vGm4Awo7co3G8Qa594gk
|
Will an AI be able to convert recent mathematical results into a fully formal proofs that can be verified by a mainstream proof assistant by 2025?
|
Definitions used:
Under "AI" I consider any fully autonomous computer program that is not given any human input other than the mathematic
Under "recent mathematical results" I consider novel mathematical results that have been published during or after 2010.
Under "fully formal proof" I consider a sequence of proof steps written in a formal mathematical logic such as CIC or ZFC.
Under "mainstream proof assistant" I consider languages such as Isabelle/HOL, Coq, or Lean.
This question will resolve to YES if such an AI can translate and verify at least five recent mathematical results that had not previously been verified in a proof assistant before the start of 2025, and will otherwise resolve to NO.
|
2022-11-27T09:51:44
|
2024-12-31T15:00:00
|
2025-01-02T05:24:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-82Mg1pJMHxlPe41lIwyA
|
Will a protest in China exceed 100,000 people before 2024?
|
Resolves yes if multiple credible western news-sources report more than 100,000 being present at a protest.
The question resolves true if one hundred thousand or more protest in a single city concurrently. Ten thousand people protesting the same topic in ten different cities will not resolve the question true.
|
2022-11-27T07:31:06
|
2023-12-31T22:07:07
|
2023-12-31T22:07:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vUslWAdaquBsgUcyLjGC
|
Will Belarus troops join the war in Ukraine by the 1st of June 2023
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-27T02:56:47
|
2023-05-31T16:00:00
|
2023-06-02T01:52:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rxu6f07u16BDVH13Wy3B
|
Will 'The Winds of Winter' be published during 2023?
|
Resolves YES if book 6 of the Song of Ice and Fire series by GRRM releases during 2023.
|
2022-11-26T21:05:48
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T13:23:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uT76w6UrzesEeLAHNZR0
|
Will a protest in China exceed 10,000 people before 2024?
|
Resolves yes if multiple credible western news-sources report more than 10,000 being present at the protest.
The question resolves true if ten thousand or more protest in a single city concurrently. one thousand people protesting the same topic in ten different cities will not resolve the question true.
|
2022-11-26T13:28:19
|
2024-01-04T06:04:22
|
2024-01-04T06:04:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NT2N2SfuXY2Qfj8Fjmqz
|
Will the Republican 2024 Senate margin in Florida be higher than in Texas?
|
The margin is the Republican vote percentage minus the Democratic vote percentage.
|
2022-11-26T12:39:10
|
2024-11-07T15:11:55
|
2024-11-07T15:11:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AA6qRZKvfiT1IpVNWSAz
|
Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?
|
Resolves YES if Trump is charged by the end of 2023 specifically for the crimes listed in the probable cause warrant to search Mar-a-Lago. Resolves NO if not.
|
2022-11-26T09:29:44
|
2023-06-08T17:25:24
|
2023-06-08T17:25:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9GShohlJ4YeEgFWR8w5y
|
Will Elon Musk say publicly that he regrets buying Twitter?
|
He did spend months trying to get out of it, a good indicator of regret, but he has since completely dedicated himself to the company so hard to tell currently. Musk must say he regrets buying Twitter or some obvious variation of that by the end of 2023 for this to resolve YES.
|
2022-11-26T06:34:46
|
2023-12-31T20:16:06
|
2023-12-31T20:16:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yUSuJjFulPyDWwGsUuJ4
|
Will Israel cancel or suspend the "grandchild clause" in its Law of Return before January 2025?
|
This market resolves "YES" if, before its close date, Israel cancels or suspends at least for one year the right to return for "grandchildren of Jews" in the Law of Return.
4A. (a) The rights of a Jew under this Law and the rights of an
oleh under the Nationality Law, 5712-1952, as well as the rights of
an oleh under any other enactment, are also vested in a child and a
grandchild of a Jew, the spouse of a Jew, the spouse of a child of a
Jew and the spouse of a grandchild of a Jew, except for a person
who has been a Jew and has voluntarily changed his religion.
Links:
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Return
Text of the law: https://israeled.org/resources/documents/israels-law-return/
"Israel’s chief rabbi proposes amending the Law of Return": https://www.jns.org/israels-chief-rabbi-proposes-amending-the-law-of-return/
If you think that market formulation is not precise enough and has potential gray areas, please comment on this.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.
|
2022-11-26T05:48:52
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:06:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DFCmfW1IoFEEP5kmaLmp
|
Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-25T18:47:48
|
2023-06-05T13:59:21
|
2023-06-05T13:59:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AsKh3Bd3uVm5YzXeUVEb
|
Will we see another AI capable of ranking in the top 10% of another complex natural language strategy game before May 2023?
|
To resolve YES, an AI must beat 90% of human players (such as CICERO
is able to do https://ai.facebook.com/research/cicero/) at a game besides Diplomacy that has a vital natural language component before May 1st.
[image]
|
2022-11-25T11:43:12
|
2023-04-30T22:01:00
|
2023-05-03T10:23:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-reWwChWEHtyXNxVD410e
|
Will Google Cloud turn a profit 2023Q4?
|
source data: abc.xyz/investor
This market resolves positively if "Google Cloud" reports a positive quarterly opearing income. Includes quarters up to and including Q4 2023, which will come after expiry, but will be counted for this event. In Q3 2022, Google Cloud revenue was $6.87B and a net operating loss of $699M. Resolution based only on investor reports, regardless of how "Google Cloud" is defined.
|
2022-11-25T10:50:16
|
2023-06-07T15:23:57
|
2023-06-07T15:23:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2Rfnke73CWmGlqqZxMmz
|
Will Destiny's news organization be up by May of 2023 (6 months timeframe)?
|
Destiny has expressed interest in founding his own news company a few months back.
The topic was brought back up yesterday by Dan and today again by call-ins.
Destiny says he will start working on it after he finishes Factorio.
Market resolves when a working website with news coverage is available, even if it's in a prototype stage. If it's not up by May of 2023, this will close as a NO.
Nov 25, 10:12am: Will Destiny's news organization be up by May of 2023? → Will Destiny's news organization be up by May of 2023 (6 months timeframe)?
|
2022-11-25T10:08:35
|
2023-05-02T02:29:40
|
2023-05-02T02:29:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?
|
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/
|
2022-11-25T04:50:44
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:45:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3DBfZ7AOupTDgJmPw32v
|
Will Adam Kinzinger receive a subpeona to testify before any committee during the 118th Congress?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-24T23:11:50
|
2025-01-03T10:59:00
|
2025-01-10T14:23:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8F9mEb7HBs5FWbl31poX
|
Will Changpeng Zhao ("CZ", cofounder of Binance exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
|
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Changpeng Zhao ("CZ", co-founder of Binance) has been criminally charged (or indicted) with any felony crime. Note that a lawsuit (e.g. a CFTC lawsuit) is inadequate -- he must be charged by the police or indicted by a grand jury, or the equivalent in other countries.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if they are not found not guilty.
Examples that count: wire fraud, perjury, assault, arson, theft.
Examples that don't count: littering, possession of small amounts of marijuana.
|
2022-11-24T20:07:14
|
2023-12-17T15:35:48
|
2023-12-17T15:35:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O1TKBjLskAEGANKBkbdk
|
Will Destiny and Kanye (Ye) talk in person on or off stream before 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-24T20:06:33
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-03T18:01:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nB6H5VmiVTAmQCvicyqp
|
Apple adopts RCS in iOS Messages app by end of 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-24T13:59:05
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:05:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RaoQJ9dlmkMEqyxaeFDR
|
Will AI for Diplomacy be mildly superhuman by 2024?
|
Meta AI recently achieved 90th percentile Diplomacy play (no restrictions afaict): https://ai.facebook.com/blog/cicero-ai-negotiates-persuades-and-cooperates-with-people/.
Within one year will AI be mildly superhuman at (full-press) Diplomacy in the sense of having a higher ELO rating than any human player? If there are not ELO ratings available for some reason I may accept an alternative such as winning a tournament against the best human players. I will not accept any alternative that does not involve some kind of direct, well-incentivized competition between the AI and the best human players.
Related to:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/vluzko/will-ai-for-diplomacy-be-superhuman)
|
2022-11-24T10:56:12
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T00:34:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-94aUJ7prGjcOEAqr8Azl
|
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before April 2023?
|
Wikipedia's list of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea will be used to resolve. Positive resolution requires a detonation to take place before 2023-04-01T00:00:00 Korean Standard Time.
Close date updated to 2023-03-31 4:00 pm
|
2022-11-24T06:30:06
|
2023-03-31T08:00:00
|
2023-03-31T08:08:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mU5bFHhfOLM8pUwUqdeT
|
Will Wikipedia's 'Current events' include the COVID-19 pandemic as an ongoing event on 2024-01-01?
|
I'll look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events at some point on that day and resolve as I see it. I'm using this as a proxy for when the pandemic will be commonly considered to be over.
|
2022-11-23T21:12:49
|
2023-12-31T03:00:00
|
2023-12-31T15:38:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tWAbrlbysZBeWvOGIzEJ
|
Will Andrej Karpathy return to Tesla by the end of 2023?
|
I believe he has been quoted speculating about a potential future back at Tesla. Resolves YES if Karpathy is reemployed by Tesla by the end of 2023.
|
2022-11-23T18:55:30
|
2023-12-31T14:03:28
|
2023-12-31T14:03:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9m8d79ZTgWzm0qraJ4tn
|
Will OpenAI suggest GPT-4 is AGI?
|
Context
https://twitter.com/MikePFrank/status/1595370237901393921?t=MuS79wbUABHVUGq_O3kddA&s=19
|
2022-11-23T15:49:45
|
2024-12-31T19:59:00
|
2025-01-01T02:16:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J3IabISgj4baPHHrq2uo
|
Will asteriskmag.com still be alive by the end of 2024?
|
https://asteriskmag.com/
The website must be up, and at least one article must have been published in the last 2 months. (Excluding an article anouncing the end of the site.)
|
2022-11-23T14:38:56
|
2024-12-31T21:00:00
|
2025-01-02T18:46:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GEUH1ESBaqX3uXgcVMwd
|
Will Nate Silver sign up for Manifold by July 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-23T13:26:21
|
2023-06-30T20:59:00
|
2023-06-30T21:17:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3K63FYyhwljHyac11tXy
|
Will Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin be the Republican Party nominee for President in 2024 in the general election.
|
Based in results of the 2024 primaries as reported in the Wall Street Journal
|
2022-11-23T12:19:44
|
2024-07-15T20:22:48
|
2024-07-15T20:22:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NlAs5nCgdZNUYf04kPWo
|
Will FIFA still have 211 member associations on April 1, 2023?
|
FIFA, which stands for Fédération Internationale de Football Association, is an international governing body of association football, beach football and futsal.
In November 2022 FIFA consisted of 211 affiliated associations.
However...
[image]
This market will resolve to YES if on April 1, 2023, this number is the same.
|
2022-11-23T10:20:25
|
2023-04-01T02:11:00
|
2023-04-01T04:26:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rtsupfsUdNTb6gRkl0A7
|
Will AI for Diplomacy be strongly superhuman by 2024?
|
Meta AI recently achieved 90th percentile Diplomacy play (no restrictions afaict): https://ai.facebook.com/blog/cicero-ai-negotiates-persuades-and-cooperates-with-people/.
Within one year, will AI be superhuman at Diplomacy, which for the purposes of this market means an ELO rating corresponding to a 90% win rate against the best human players?
Nov 22, 11:51pm: Will AI for Diplomacy be superhuman by 2024? → Will AI for Diplomacy be strongly superhuman by 2024?
|
2022-11-22T21:29:01
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-01T00:25:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HxhPaDet04jnN6ZnuMGF
|
Will Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft or Google buy Twitter before end of 2023?
|
Resolves true if the take over is agreed before end of 2023 even if the merge is not complete. If there are court cases opening contesting the buy then will use judgement but probably be NO.
|
2022-11-22T17:40:43
|
2023-12-30T17:40:00
|
2023-12-30T18:07:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A3lwYLfAukInQNn5iYtn
|
Will Destiny get diagnosed with ADHD before 2024?
|
Nov 22, 5:42pm: Will Destiny test positive for ADHD before 2024? → Will Destiny get diagnosed with ADHD before 2024?
|
2022-11-22T14:49:27
|
2023-10-26T19:01:50
|
2023-10-26T19:01:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DjN8qUwQm0H32HKZH9zB
|
Will Google create a folding smartphone by 2025?
|
Resolved on whether a folding Google-made smartphone (of any branding) is announced.
|
2022-11-22T10:07:39
|
2023-07-07T08:53:31
|
2023-07-07T08:53:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JLunYBq7gjymfN2NKV7G
|
Will Mark Zuckerberg resign by 2024?
|
https://theleak.co/2022/11/22/mark-zuckerberg-is-set-to-resign-next-year/
Closes on Jan 1, 2024 12:00AM
|
2022-11-22T07:27:46
|
2023-12-31T21:00:00
|
2023-12-31T21:19:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ze75Pl8jgi2uDmrIiJOJ
|
Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2026?
|
Alexei Navalny is a Russian politician and Putin's critic. He survived an assassination attempt widely linked with Russian secret services. He is currently imprisoned.
I will use media sources and my best judgement to determine if he is alive, and free.
I posted the same question with different end dates: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
|
2022-11-22T04:26:36
|
2024-02-17T02:36:52
|
2024-02-17T02:36:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i3mLM7EpSQH93m0PpZSL
|
Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025?
|
Alexei Navalny is a Russian politician and Putin's critic. He survived an assassination attempt widely linked with Russian secret services. He is currently imprisoned.
I will use media sources and my best judgement to determine if he is alive, and free.
I posted the same question with different end dates: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
|
2022-11-22T04:25:47
|
2024-02-17T02:36:38
|
2024-02-17T02:36:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p
|
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?
|
Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA
[image]
|
2022-11-22T03:36:07
|
2024-01-12T08:47:22
|
2024-01-12T08:47:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K19YMoUiaJ7FpSXX7Pd3
|
Will Ron DeSantis appear on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the 2024 US elections?
|
Please note, to resolve YES, the appearance of DeSantis must be longer than 10 minutes.
|
2022-11-22T03:19:44
|
2024-11-11T04:41:49
|
2024-11-11T04:41:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dDtvoeuE2lCmqn5Y82Cb
|
Will Iran publicly execute 100+ of the currently imprisoned protesters by March 31, 2023?
|
The Iranian legislature overwhelmingly passed a law condeming all protesters arrested during the current uprising to death. To what extent will they follow through on this threat? There are thousands of prisons to which this new law applies.
|
2022-11-21T23:45:15
|
2023-03-31T20:59:00
|
2023-04-02T09:14:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HXwBWmTdF0z4XqROTzHA
|
Will Vladimir Putin visit Tehran, Iran by June 30, 2023?
|
Putin is getting increasingly desperate for capable soldiers and munitions. He has already started buying arms from the Iranians and North Koreans. Will he need to go kiss the ring to continue getting support under increasing international pressure?
|
2022-11-21T23:40:55
|
2023-06-30T20:59:00
|
2023-06-30T21:21:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gzMk90sw1PssNARdIcIW
|
Will Vladimir Putin visit Pyongyang, North Korea by June 30, 2023?
|
Putin is getting increasingly desperate for capable soldiers and munitions. He has already started buying arms from the Iranians and North Koreans. Will he need to go kiss the ring to continue getting support under increasing international pressure?
|
2022-11-21T23:39:59
|
2023-06-30T20:59:00
|
2023-06-30T21:20:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7HbXLA7n2mXUZSRnVC0p
|
Will Jeff Bezos return to Amazon to be CEO in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-21T21:46:52
|
2023-12-31T22:59:00
|
2023-12-31T23:17:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3ic4dtcwWikZEsWCQK4a
|
Will Turkey ratify Sweden's accession to NATO by April 1, 2023?
|
On 5 July 2022, NATO signed the accession protocol for Sweden to join the alliance. However, all member countries must formally approve (ratify) such accession. Turkey and Hungary are the last to do so, delaying approval for various reasons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Ratification_process
|
2022-11-21T15:23:08
|
2023-04-01T14:59:00
|
2023-04-02T03:23:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TMe7Fc5XgfIafJK4kajk
|
Will Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential election before 11/5/2024?
|
Will Joe Biden announce to suspend his candidacy or campaign for the 2024 presidential election before the election date, 11/5/2024?
|
2022-11-21T14:39:28
|
2024-07-22T00:47:15
|
2024-07-22T00:47:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FiAuXlx2bHaAaaGb25eU
|
Will Kevin Durant play for the Brooklyn Nets in the 2023-2024 NBA season?
|
Durant is under contract with the Net through 2026 but is clearly unhappy with the team's trajectory. Will he force a trade this offseason?
Market Resolves Yes: If Durant plays a single second of the 2023-2024 NBA regular season in a Brooklyn Nets uniform.
|
2022-11-21T14:11:31
|
2024-01-11T14:20:25
|
2024-01-11T14:20:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CMY4YI668LfkAUXQju4s
|
Will Kyrie Irving play in the 2023-2024 NBA season?
|
Kyrie is currently in the last year of his contract with the Brooklyn Nets.
Market Resolves Yes: If Kyrie plays a single second in the 2023-2024 NBA regular season.
Nov 21, 2:06pm: Will Kyrie Irving play in the NBA 2023-2024 NBA season? → Will Kyrie Irving play in the 2023-2024 NBA season?
Close date updated to 2024-04-15 12:00 am
|
2022-11-21T14:05:52
|
2023-10-29T11:09:10
|
2023-10-29T11:09:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uRvjIQRD0GCQ7yzst7o4
|
Will DeSantis and Trump debate?
|
At a debate, not "town hall", obviously not if on same team.
|
2022-11-21T13:54:37
|
2024-05-03T15:45:24
|
2024-05-03T15:45:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G4LdYeWfK61fkHpfDUuc
|
Will Biden debate Trump?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-21T13:53:42
|
2024-06-27T18:11:15
|
2024-06-27T18:11:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6iq4XUDSluhrnbg7DMB8
|
Will Biden debate?
|
(Any Dem candidate, or any Republican candidate)
|
2022-11-21T13:51:08
|
2024-06-27T19:31:13
|
2024-06-27T19:31:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WyM7VqQKF22bSyFqfcNV
|
Will Rockstar announce GTA 6 release date or official logo before April 1st, 2023?
|
GTA 6 was confirmed in 2022, but Rockstar is yet to release any official screenshots or even a logo just yet.
https://www.techradar.com/news/gta-6-release-date-news-and-rumors-mapping-the-path-to-grand-theft-auto-6
https://www.gamesradar.com/gta-6-guide/
|
2022-11-21T10:36:53
|
2023-04-01T14:59:00
|
2023-04-02T03:32:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wwnG24cDn1XzsxpN7EGy
|
Will a Democrat win the 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-21T10:19:07
|
2023-11-07T23:46:02
|
2023-11-07T23:46:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4PSv6wW6iYK6iFJmxCw0
|
Will a Democrat win the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-21T10:09:02
|
2023-11-07T23:41:42
|
2023-11-07T23:41:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-82K3PUBoOpGi02Af85VS
|
Will Biden be President for 8 years?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-20T19:09:08
|
2024-11-06T15:43:39
|
2024-11-06T15:43:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WuzsBvuUvtpRz6S6K46r
|
Will Trump’s first tweet mention Truth Social?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-20T16:45:28
|
2023-08-25T12:14:21
|
2023-08-25T12:14:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T8WZa5ONcTO5AbGmkEWM
|
Will Twitter acquire TruthSocial by the end of 2023?
|
What would it take to get Trump? Just buy him. It will cost like a months burn rate.
Nov 20, 3:23pm: Will Twitter acquire Truth social buy end of 2023? → Will Twitter acquire TruthSocial by the end of 2023?
|
2022-11-20T12:20:50
|
2023-12-31T13:50:44
|
2023-12-31T13:50:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JI16KP1IkUg0UoAT2Oid
|
What is the chance that Coinbase goes bankrupt OR loses at least 10% of their customer assets (e.g., some of the crypto on the platform gets stolen) before Nov 20, 2024?
|
This will resolve to Yes/True if either of these conditions is met before Nov 20, 2024:
• Coinbase files for bankruptcy (including Chapter 7, Chapter 11, and all other forms)
• At least 10% of Coinbase's customer assets are lost, stolen or disappear
|
2022-11-20T11:57:43
|
2024-11-20T15:59:00
|
2024-11-20T17:57:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-md07zgK4Eixmaw8n0tFs
|
Will Riot release a new Illaoi skin in 2023?
|
Illaoi has one of the lowest skin counts in the game with 4 (excluding her default skin). Illaoi has been in the game for roughly 7 years. Her last skin was released 23/06/2022 (Snow Moon).
|
2022-11-20T11:12:29
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:14:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n6sRCgbDSs25qnMeKSlI
|
Will Destiny Talk to Vaush in 2023?
|
Will Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II) talk to Vaush (Ian Kochinsky) in the year 2023?
Edit: Title Edit was just for testing reasons, this Market will close on December 31st 2023!
Talk: Be in the same (discord) call, or talk face to face, and exchange a couple of sentences.
|
2022-11-20T11:08:49
|
2023-09-29T10:38:32
|
2023-09-29T10:38:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KBdABxbSyYRJvioqaAtB
|
Will any Currently Top 15 Cryptocurrency exchange file for bankruptcy before 1 Mar 2023
|
This market will resolve Yes is any of the current top 15 Crypto exchanges as ranked by CMC will begin filing for bankruptcy before 1 march 2023. The list is as follows:
Binance
Coinbase
Kraken
BinanceUS
KuCoin
Bitfinex
Coincheck
Bitstamp
Bybit
Gemini
bitFlyer
OKX
Upbit
Bitget
Cryptocom
otherwise the market will resolve No
|
2022-11-20T07:38:20
|
2023-03-01T15:59:00
|
2023-03-02T08:36:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tcnI9D3RKccukiUZHFet
|
Will Elon Musk make a deal with Trump to create content exclusively for Twitter?
|
Trump currently has an exclusive deal with truth social and has so far indicated he intends to honor it, at least for now. What will Elon do to entice Trump when he is desperate? Trump could have a blast emasculating Musk. I think he will make him acquire truth social maybe.?
|
2022-11-20T07:22:42
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:01:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7rPc2QXVkLlw5Mag0e6z
|
Will Amazon spin off AWS by the end of 2023?
|
Scott Galloway has argued several times in the last few months on his Pivot podcast that AWS is worth more than the entire company as a standalone business and predicts a spin off. Most recent version of the prediction was paired with Jeff Bezos coming back to run Amazon when Andy Jaffy goes back to run his baby AWS.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-jeff-bezos-return-to-amazon-as)
|
2022-11-20T07:15:55
|
2023-12-31T20:26:27
|
2023-12-31T20:26:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qYjeDWzb99vcV2F4b91O
|
Will Microsoft acquire the US assets of TikTok by the end of 2023?
|
Kara Swisher predicted on the most recent episode of Pivot that Microsoft would acquire the US assets of TikTok. This came after her and co-host Scott Galloway both predicted the days for TikTok operating in the US under Chinese ownership are numbered and it's only a matter of time before someone acquires it.
|
2022-11-20T07:14:52
|
2023-12-31T20:16:24
|
2023-12-31T20:16:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u6lmh2MuRy6jaiiiee1f
|
Will Jeff Bezos return to Amazon as CEO by 2024?
|
Amazon has lost 45 percent of its market cap since Jeff Bezos had his mid-life crisis. Will he take back his company by pushing Andy Jaffy to leave to serve as the chief of AWS after it is spun out of Amazon as independent company? Just one way it could happen, but I could see him just walking in tomorrow like Bob Iger at Disney for sure...
Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm
|
2022-11-20T04:37:47
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:49:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h3Fwodt8N29leIYVdSB4
|
Will Bibi Netanyahu visit Mar-a-Lago while Israeli Prime Minister?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2022-11-20T04:34:24
|
2024-07-26T15:57:28
|
2024-07-26T15:57:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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