id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-q1DV6oGhyB9r3y9QIzEI | Will Elon Musk appoint a replacement as CEO at Tesla by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-20T04:14:40 | 2023-12-31T20:20:13 | 2023-12-31T20:20:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2Q5gCZOBy7TnIdEjMpAa | Will Elon Musk attempt to sell Twitter before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-20T04:13:22 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T17:07:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VO673sMDopjKywaMIqrH | Will Elon Musk attempt to sell Twitter before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-20T04:12:47 | 2023-12-31T20:36:37 | 2023-12-31T20:36:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rCarz81AxYofBjtxVXxD | Will Apple acquire TSMC by 2025? | Apple last week announced they were moving a large fraction of their chip production from Asia to Arizona in a new fab joint venture with TSMC. TSMC is 1/5th the size of Apple, so it would barely dent the balance sheet to gobble up the Taiwanese national champion. The more I think about it, the more I am tempted to thi... | 2022-11-20T04:05:23 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:29:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kWuoESmtM6PNIGhqQBEB | Will Donald Trump have 100 million followers on Twitter by June 1, 2023? | https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump?lang=en
Currently 87.8mm. Could maybe close the gap if Twitter buys TruthSocial.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-twitter-acquire-truth-social-b) | 2022-11-20T01:29:21 | 2023-05-31T20:59:00 | 2023-06-01T05:24:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3zGTOte61ULeQOlyA3VY | Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | Resolves yes if the PRC attempts to physically invade Taiwan in the year of 2024. | 2022-11-19T20:30:25 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T21:03:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bOwE0RtCSrJwZeu65xCa | By the end of 2023, will Elon Musk claim he is an Effective Altruist? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-19T18:02:23 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T22:05:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hWPaDj7MQEdh9Vlf8JVE | Donald Trump will be banned from twitter by 2/14/2024 | This market rezolves 2 yes if Trump is banned from twiter by 2/14/2024 cuz we all know what happens then! | 2022-11-19T18:01:39 | 2024-02-13T15:59:00 | 2024-02-21T05:16:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-F2zDQl4IEhJf0ObFg6Pc | If Joe Biden is not the Democratic presidential nominee, will it be Harris or Newsom? | If Joe Biden is chosen as the 2024 Democratic Presidential nominee, resolves N/A.
Otherwise, resolves YES if Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom is chosen. | 2022-11-19T09:50:18 | 2024-08-11T21:42:57 | 2024-08-11T21:42:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y7SDc2DY2BQGsRUuAOud | Will a browser not made by Google or Apple have at least a 15% market share by the end of 2023? | Resolves to YES on December 31, 2023, if the worldwide market share of an "alternative" browser exceeds 15% based on statcounter (all device types).
Current standings:
65% Chrome
19% Safari
4% Edge
3% Firefox
...
Historical chart:
[image] | 2022-11-19T09:41:42 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:00:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mOfc86gPxWorUBEl88PR | Will Russia declare a general mobilization before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-18T23:38:54 | 2023-12-31T05:00:00 | 2024-01-01T00:28:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HKMyzI3GIZFVvyTU97AD | Assault weapons ban before 2025 | [image]Option will resolve as "yes" if
United States executive and legislative branches pass and sign a bill banning assault weapons before 2025 (even if the bill is not enforced until after 2025) OR
United States executive branch signs an order banning assault weapons, and such order is actually enforced before 202... | 2022-11-18T22:48:11 | 2024-12-31T22:02:00 | 2025-01-01T00:53:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UV5vVWxiZQ7YvykbVAM9 | Will Destiny and Sam Seder talk again before 2024? | Not inlcuding texts/dms, must be on stream/video/real life. | 2022-11-18T19:58:13 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:48:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fzXiap6ONqHa9TbT1QBP | Will Destiny talk to Ethan Klein publicly before 2024? | Not through text/dms, talking either on a stream, video, or in real life. | 2022-11-18T19:54:20 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:49:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wiz4XJ42FrJzMN3gjpAT | Will Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-18T17:42:07 | 2023-03-30T16:02:18 | 2023-03-30T16:02:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly | Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream? | Within two weeks of release. Market resolves "No" if there is no manifesto by the end of 2023.
Edit 1/7/2023: For this market to resolve "Yes" Destiny must either watch the video released by Mr. Girl or read the article. If Destiny reacts to someone watching the video or reading the article the market will also resolv... | 2022-11-18T17:07:11 | 2023-04-04T18:54:47 | 2023-04-04T18:54:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DbT8Nv83cMyYIQXv2oeG | Will Ticketmaster be deemed a monopoly by the end of 2023? | If any law or legal action gets taken against ticketmaster, successfully, causing it to split in smaller companies | 2022-11-18T14:02:10 | 2023-12-31T21:01:00 | 2023-12-31T21:10:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4puPVNlPzjSJDzPMUFd3 | Will Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones, @infowars) tweet in 2023? | This market will resolve to YES if one of the accounts @RealAlexJones and @infowars tweets between November 18, 2022, and January 1, 2024.
2022 market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/will-alex-jones-realalexjones-infow)
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-11-18T12:28:18 | 2023-12-11T03:00:38 | 2023-12-11T03:00:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gGnxdT90w0mxEPTVwD9S | Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for 2024 presidency? | This question will resolve YES if Elon Musk announces that he will vote for, or is encouraging other people to vote for, Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Otherwise, resolves NO after election day. | 2022-11-18T12:19:23 | 2024-07-13T16:11:50 | 2024-07-13T16:11:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5wpx7KZxtlknjihg6xsu | Will the Twitter API Status page report a "Major Outage" by 2023-05-04? | Source data: https://api.twitterstat.us/
If the dashboard no longer lists "Major Outage" as an option on expiry, this market will be canceled. | 2022-11-18T10:32:28 | 2023-05-04T00:00:00 | 2023-05-05T12:51:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e2l3AX2ujpE1OCpoRVeH | Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before 5 May 2023? | While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (Al Arabiya, Daily Beast, Parley Policy Initiative). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" i... | 2022-11-18T10:23:11 | 2023-05-05T10:24:00 | 2023-05-06T06:31:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6FnMgbeDSPMiMJ0Hlehd | Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace? | Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries genera... | 2022-11-18T10:22:16 | 2023-10-01T10:24:00 | 2023-10-01T13:40:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9YdH2Wobzidq0pcbZxqQ | Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before March 1 2023? | SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement a... | 2022-11-18T10:19:40 | 2023-03-01T10:24:00 | 2023-03-06T12:29:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iy95pbfoMeo3NYEylt0c | Will Tesla report automotive gross profit margins lower than 19.5% in any fiscal year by 2028? | If Tesla stops reporting this metric, changes the accounting standard materially, Tesla goes private or any other unpredicted thing happens, this market will be resolved as N/A!
[image]I may bet on this market.
[markets] | 2022-11-18T08:41:13 | 2024-01-24T18:27:57 | 2024-01-24T18:27:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TSwAFwrAjuwttFfRh5bQ | Will any Rational Animations video released in 2023 or late 2022 have over 2 million views by the end of 2024? | https://www.youtube.com/c/RationalAnimations
Any video released from Nov 18, 2022 to December 31 2023 qualifies. | 2022-11-18T08:05:00 | 2024-12-31T21:00:00 | 2025-01-01T16:32:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5S3AApt7AYNMYmdDFaq0 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023? | including tests | 2022-11-18T07:17:42 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:17:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-biaKFKeHsUs7qzBy1O3R | Will the cryptocurrency market's total market capitalization set a new all-time high within the next 10 years? | Resolves YES if the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market exceeds $3,080,321,493,191.00 at any point within the next 10 years. Resolves NO otherwise.
See: https://www.coingecko.com/en/global-charts | 2022-11-17T23:12:35 | 2024-12-12T22:37:12 | 2024-12-12T22:37:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qDnFR5h3hV8tUbqQytYh | Will Bitcoin's total market capitalization set a new all-time high within the next 10 years? | Resolves YES if the total market capitalization of Bitcoin exceeds $1,278,797,895,528 at any point within the next 10 years. Resolves NO otherwise.
See: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin | 2022-11-17T23:11:22 | 2024-03-08T11:29:49 | 2024-03-08T11:29:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7TWbauUImm3uOZQOaAmV | Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-17T17:49:41 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wzni2A6Ggx1TuW12SYyh | Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2024? | Resolves yes if there is a model that receives a natural language description (e.g."Give me a video of a puppy playing with a kitten") and outputs a realistic looking video matching the description.
It does *not* have to be *undetectable* as AI generated, merely "realistic enough".
It must be able to consistently g... | 2022-11-17T17:41:40 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-08T16:08:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X45wvvRyhKkLPEIIRZGW | Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed? | Nov 17, 6:22pm: Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's loan forgiveness program to proceed? → Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed?
Nov 17, 6:22pm: Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed? → Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's stud... | 2022-11-17T15:22:25 | 2023-06-30T07:38:31 | 2023-06-30T07:38:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DzZGJngJ2rtHdwxYdQE7 | Will Rick Scott run for the GOP nomination in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-17T15:20:04 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:06:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lNDTPhfgAEmhsufShZCU | Will reliable sources report that Twitter is struggling to hire software engineers between January 2023 and June 2023? | Same definition of reliable sources as Wikipedia. Note that the media should report this as a fact, not as "sources claim" or such weasel words. | 2022-11-17T13:30:13 | 2023-06-01T23:35:35 | 2023-06-01T23:35:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K5UrdMeEMwbg3kIIG6x1 | Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan be the President of Turkey on January 1, 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if on January 1, 20243 (12 PM ET), Recep Tayyip Erdogan is officially recognised as the President of the Republic of Türkiye (Turkey). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
A consensus of credible media reports will be used to resolve this market. If the office of the President dissolve... | 2022-11-17T10:15:04 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:39:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cs7PL9fKpdYMZR6w58XM | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan as Speaker of the House? | Resolves N/A if McCarthy not elected Speaker. Resolves YES if McCarthy becomes Speaker and visits Taiwan during the 118th Congress. | 2022-11-17T01:50:14 | 2023-10-30T02:30:37 | 2023-10-30T02:30:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CfGVdb4Kc1i6uG3CJ4h1 | Will Tom Brady endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T21:57:44 | 2024-11-06T12:48:12 | 2024-11-06T12:48:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Ubyr2NxMMaDN7CbBA3H | Will Blake Masters endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T20:56:18 | 2024-11-07T20:59:00 | 2024-11-09T11:12:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TWSyTiEJfMboPr8mUYGu | Will SBF still be alive by end of 2023? | Resolves to YES if by the closing date SBF is still alive and well. Resolves to NO if SBF dies. | 2022-11-16T20:19:22 | 2023-12-31T12:20:00 | 2023-12-31T14:43:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WXBnuggN21MxUAKNJKcM | Will Sen. Dianne Feinstein run for reelection in 2024? | She filed the initial FEC paperwork to run in early 2021, though her staff said that this didn't mean that she would necessarily do it. Hypothetically, she would be 91 at the start of the term and 97 at the end.
Close date updated to 2024-03-11 3:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-12-08 11:59 pm | 2022-11-16T19:41:33 | 2023-09-29T07:03:48 | 2023-09-29T07:03:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cjGmgrGW7tiJW7ojoejo | Will Lex Fridman interview SBF by 2024? | Related:
[markets] | 2022-11-16T13:54:47 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T12:41:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rdBDy4UXIZppxOjsyear | Will 2023 be the warmest year on record? | I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available), counting an exact match (1.02) as a "no". If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022.
Edit 2023-08-08: past numbers changed to 1.01, so now a 1.02 or hig... | 2022-11-16T11:11:44 | 2024-01-12T12:52:49 | 2024-01-12T12:52:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7pAa0IsFytGNkO6GE5yN | Will Sneako vote for Donald Trump in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T10:35:22 | 2024-11-06T00:27:28 | 2024-11-06T00:27:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-thk4Fk6DRgpie3FT4lZZ | Will Ron Johnson endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T10:07:16 | 2024-06-16T12:00:52 | 2024-06-16T12:00:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h2BF9rd5VY01FaVSbXpB | Will Trump win the Virginia Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T10:04:27 | 2024-03-06T03:07:54 | 2024-03-06T03:07:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1cA80FU3mEa2k0i8eW3F | Will Trump win the Colorado Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T10:03:01 | 2024-03-06T03:09:19 | 2024-03-06T03:09:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fltPI55eyhh36NIwrPpR | Will Trump win the Nevada caucus? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T10:02:40 | 2024-02-09T18:36:58 | 2024-02-09T18:36:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wjqlThiba2wVW3hm6MnP | Will Trump win the Utah Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T10:02:24 | 2024-03-06T03:08:29 | 2024-03-06T03:08:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DXBEFLwQ9H3PbvnoxNOP | Will Trump win the Arizona Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T10:01:46 | 2024-03-19T23:23:06 | 2024-03-19T23:23:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ty2wjtZq4VRQeKOgtTKI | Will Trump win the Louisiana Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T10:01:37 | 2024-03-24T13:06:05 | 2024-03-24T13:06:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LekfH4GrxOnfs2xsdDn7 | Will Peter Thiel endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:58:32 | 2024-11-07T07:28:09 | 2024-11-07T07:28:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YHNRDYczlUUZUHeu7HNK | Will Trump win the Ohio Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:54:24 | 2024-03-19T23:22:29 | 2024-03-19T23:22:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-G3hnti1hirYok90nhxRJ | Will Trump win the Tennessee Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:53:35 | 2024-03-06T03:07:35 | 2024-03-06T03:07:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eDRXOkVrhmMsAvQEHU9y | Will Trump win the Mississippi Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:53:07 | 2024-03-13T18:14:57 | 2024-03-13T18:14:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qBF0dSKCv826uOXzU4hc | Will Trump win the Missouri Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:52:53 | 2024-03-02T20:55:45 | 2024-03-02T20:55:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fLmwuuRRuyRDr9CvCb91 | Will Trump win the Wisconsin Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:52:17 | 2024-04-03T14:45:06 | 2024-04-03T14:45:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DnQbDPvFwRinSoav07a6 | Will Trump win the Michigan Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:51:55 | 2024-02-28T15:43:49 | 2024-02-28T15:43:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dAMWkMSoy5AF5tpq0J2g | Will Trump win the New York Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:51:23 | 2024-04-03T14:45:18 | 2024-04-03T14:45:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SEXfYfLRNEDo7xTH8XL1 | Will Trump win the California Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:51:06 | 2024-03-06T03:07:13 | 2024-03-06T03:07:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jH4R7WFwIcILLxJg3S80 | Will Trump win the Texas Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:50:04 | 2024-03-06T03:08:17 | 2024-03-06T03:08:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2HG9hYxaROScIwuUKwD9 | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary? | Nov 16, 1:05pm: Will Trump win the North Carolina Primary? → Will Trump win the Sorth Carolina Primary?
Nov 16, 1:06pm: Will Trump win the Sorth Carolina Primary? → Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary? | 2022-11-16T09:49:30 | 2024-02-24T18:31:27 | 2024-02-24T18:31:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YVJYFmOjds47X20cX77X | Will Trump win the Alabama Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:49:02 | 2024-03-10T04:15:47 | 2024-03-10T04:15:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XBJ75FKYu5qyrypxjfUp | Will Trump win the Georgia Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:48:45 | 2024-03-13T17:39:34 | 2024-03-13T17:39:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gHWx7gzkBfBwZW0s16Un | Will Trump win the Florida Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:48:24 | 2024-03-19T23:22:43 | 2024-03-19T23:22:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6PRVVzCtifOxdVGJNA7a | Will Trump win the NH Primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:47:51 | 2024-01-24T18:10:00 | 2024-01-24T18:10:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eNMla3nippbv8PifenNo | Will Trump win the Iowa Caucus? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:47:32 | 2024-01-16T10:27:40 | 2024-01-16T10:27:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FoQjTKTN70yMHPRPyGRO | Will Chuck Grassley endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:45:24 | 2024-06-16T12:01:09 | 2024-06-16T12:01:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9xMUeRBw6WWNbsxYsZia | Will Tim Scott endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:44:26 | 2024-01-20T14:47:40 | 2024-01-20T14:47:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-o8btYPlagwLMHyNcZhAw | Will Marco Rubio endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:43:57 | 2024-01-14T13:46:46 | 2024-01-14T13:46:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2B6VTKK9r3fjuOQXcMpH | Will Kevin McCarthy endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:30:38 | 2023-12-11T14:18:48 | 2023-12-11T14:18:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gVqCwsdXtBmhK4z8SkmG | Will MTG endorse Trump? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T09:29:59 | 2023-12-01T04:50:08 | 2023-12-01T04:50:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HjiEyx59fhaHUTpNTpfw | Any country invokes article 5 of NATO before 2025 | What is Article 5?
Under Article 5, Nato’s charter stipulates that “the Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.”
Nato says: “It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its members together, committing them to ... | 2022-11-16T09:05:26 | 2024-12-31T16:01:00 | 2025-01-06T00:08:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HaHgVdax8SJs3HAMnvrg | Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-16T05:59:45 | 2024-08-16T10:40:55 | 2024-08-16T10:40:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1GLcfEqDMtiw6vVYhaNH | Will Ukraine retake the city of Donetsk before the end of 2023? | As determined by control of the town square/city hall. | 2022-11-16T04:42:03 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:03:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4JGPKXEWnDWTtEWUEHyH | Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2023? | Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by th... | 2022-11-16T02:31:56 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T07:41:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3Xs3Z9yacr1YD46gausb | Will Keffals publicly retract past statements she's made about Destiny? [By 2025] | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-15T20:28:04 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-02-20T23:41:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7sn2rudbCLRGNq9T85DH | Will FiveThirtyEight publish a 2024 Republican primaries forecast? | I believe the only primary forecast so far they've published was for the 2020 Democratic primaries.
This market resolves YES if FiveThirtyEight publishes a forecast before the first caucus or primary that lists probabilities for Republican presidential candidates to win the 2024 nomination. It resolves NO otherwise. ... | 2022-11-15T19:33:28 | 2024-02-01T17:45:16 | 2024-02-01T17:45:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yaka9zRiAGqcWPMlSd7u | Was the Poland missile strike an intentional escalation by Russia? | Kinda hard to set clear resolution guidelines. If there isn't a super clear answer to this after 6 months, I'll ask 3 random active/reputable users in the Manifold Discord and resolve to what they say. | 2022-11-15T15:24:41 | 2023-05-15T10:44:32 | 2023-05-15T10:44:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iKvbwIJfbkfakdnYDGsH | In a year, will Peter Wildeford believe that AI is the largest single source of existential risk? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-15T14:26:27 | 2023-11-15T15:59:00 | 2024-08-18T16:59:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NEehUQgOUPm2UuVFczQx | Will Sir Keir Starmer (Labour Party) be the UK's next prime minister? |
Close date updated to 2025-02-28 11:59 pm | 2022-11-15T13:28:01 | 2024-07-02T15:59:00 | 2024-07-05T03:01:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3rKEldxZEJPZQL6n1NFI | Will there be a direct military conflict between Poland and Russia before the end of 2023? | This market resolves as "Yes" if there is any direct combat between Russian and Polish forces. Note that both sides need to be directly involved in the conflict (i.e there needs to be an exchange of bullets/rockets).
Background: On Tuesday (15.11.2022) Russian rockets crossed into Polish territory and killed 2 people... | 2022-11-15T11:32:19 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:38:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d8VQMqyNWGCtt0TpCFFA | Will Paul Christiano's "Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer" post still be the most upvoted post on LessWrong at the beginning of 2025? | The current top post is this one. You can see a list of the current top posts here. | 2022-11-15T11:11:36 | 2024-12-31T21:00:00 | 2025-01-02T12:33:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GAOEslqidlDEdDtKadTU | GPT-4 #2: Will GPT-4 be at least partially trained with RL? | The obvious YES resolution is if some form of RLHF (https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03741) is used, but others forms of RL would count.
The RL loop must actually directly affect the weights. If there's some RL for, say, architecture search or hyperparameter optimization as an outer loop that doesn't count.
Nov 25, 11:10pm... | 2022-11-15T10:02:46 | 2023-03-14T11:08:24 | 2023-03-14T11:08:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ENuDUgUEQ6bqw8xHWKOK | Will Twitter have an unprecedented outage by modern Twitter standards (1 day or longer) by January 1st 2024? | This market is based off this poll from Dan Luu: https://twitter.com/altluu/status/1590993677715148802
"unprecedented outage" here specifically means 1 day or longer, where >= 50% of U.S. users or >= 25% of global users find Twitter to be unusable. The market will resolve if Dan believes there has such an outage or, i... | 2022-11-15T01:14:18 | 2024-01-01T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:24:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QvqGyjo5ZAz5Z7cGMpku | Will a G-20 world leader die of COVID-19 by the end of of April 2023? | Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said that he tested positive for Covid-19 just two days after meeting world leaders including US President Joe Biden - Bloomberg
During with interview with the press after meeting with China president Xi Jinping before the G20, Biden coughed and claimed he had a cold.
This market wil... | 2022-11-14T18:07:10 | 2023-04-29T20:00:00 | 2023-05-04T20:14:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RA6WgWYRH1NEpyRMVfaN | Will a Democrat win the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-14T13:09:19 | 2024-11-06T14:11:51 | 2024-11-06T14:11:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jNxX1P00ugsn8zT9XWB2 | Will Xi Jinping sit for an interview with a major US media outlet by the end of 2023? | To date, Xi has ONLY ONCE submitted to an interview with Western media, with the WSJ in 2015. That is truly remarkable. | 2022-11-14T11:43:20 | 2023-12-31T20:12:33 | 2023-12-31T20:12:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CnUPcXOO1oWtugSWAZuZ | Will MrGirl's "investigation" conclude that Destiny is a serial sexual abuser? | If the line is blurry on the conclusion, I'll cancel the market returning everyone's investment.
Close date updated to 2023-02-01 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2023-04-01 11:59 pm | 2022-11-14T10:34:51 | 2023-04-01T21:59:00 | 2023-04-12T09:26:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-H4jvRcIaD8ycZ3VaHOZx | Will the US intercept a North Korean missile before the end of 2023? | Missile tests and real world combat both count. | 2022-11-14T10:03:12 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:01:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ad6tsmUDciCq0ggm7zVC | Will CZ (Changpeng Zhao) be the CEO of Binance through 2023? | If Changpeng Zhao remains in charge as CEO of Binance through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No". | 2022-11-14T09:58:01 | 2023-11-21T17:06:24 | 2023-11-21T17:06:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FstwuuWDNJSgXUISnvEv | Will SBF testify at his trial? | (Pure YES/NO, regardless of trial happening) | 2022-11-14T08:10:36 | 2023-10-27T11:16:44 | 2023-10-27T11:16:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7zySaTGhVX26gMokqwGy | Will Trafalgar have their polls banned from 538 by the end of 2023? | Trafalgar is a partisan pollster for Republican Party. Some claim, that they are fraud and their polls are totally made up.
Will 538 stop using Trafalgar's polls in their models by the end of 2023?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ | 2022-11-14T07:40:53 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T14:09:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eNpBibkiBOFlOkgUt2KG | Will the UK Conservative party win the next election? |
Close date updated to 2022-11-21 11:59 pm | 2022-11-14T07:15:06 | 2024-07-06T13:00:19 | 2024-07-06T13:00:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6VaXquGxSkHTfNwjCZSA | Will Twitter increase its number of active users, in a year after Musk's takeover? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-14T07:07:58 | 2023-10-28T14:59:00 | 2023-11-09T00:06:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oTb3yX2RwG5xM3pYVNB6 | Will the mystery woman in Destiny's cheating secret be revealed by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-14T06:51:24 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:35:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y6NWeQHidIDWVfWOtA8t | Will Sergey Shoygu still be the Minister of Defence of Russia on January 1, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-14T06:36:54 | 2024-01-05T02:19:32 | 2024-01-05T02:19:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EPoUdJVhWS3imcWbyn5D | Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty of more than 10 years in prison before 2030? | Market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Bankman Fried is sentenced by a judge in any jurisdiction to serve more than ten years in prison before 2030. | 2022-11-14T05:47:40 | 2024-03-28T09:27:45 | 2024-03-28T09:27:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ukoHs1c0WE1SRz3OCsNz | Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty of more than 20 years in prison before 2030? | Market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Bankman Fried is sentenced by a judge in any jurisdiction to serve more than twenty years in prison before 2030. | 2022-11-14T05:45:51 | 2024-03-28T09:31:25 | 2024-03-28T09:31:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hm55NKmeHcT7tNoUueC0 | Will Tesla report advertising spending for any of the fiscal years 2022 or 2023? | Marketing, Promotional and Advertising Costs
Marketing, promotional and advertising costs are expensed as incurred and are included as an element of selling, general and administrative expense in the consolidated statement of operations. Marketing, promotional and advertising costs were immaterial for the years ended ... | 2022-11-13T22:00:12 | 2024-01-29T09:13:11 | 2024-01-29T09:13:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-itp5VrZTioFlYG1QZ2ht | Will any prediction market clearly elicit knowledge about an important event that was otherwise unknown to the public before 2025? | I keep seeing people talk about prediction markets as though they're some magic way to gain knowledge that isn't publically available. (e.g. #9 here.) As I explained in a response to that post, this seems overly optimistic to me. Markets are very good about updating on public information once it's known, but can they r... | 2022-11-13T15:52:08 | 2023-06-22T09:50:45 | 2023-06-22T09:50:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QYevHlWD9BGpXg2UiGfP | Will Melina and Destiny stop seeing each other before 1/1/2024? | Idea credit: Dan the Man | 2022-11-13T14:40:57 | 2023-12-11T12:27:42 | 2023-12-11T12:27:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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