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forecasting

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mani-q1DV6oGhyB9r3y9QIzEI
Will Elon Musk appoint a replacement as CEO at Tesla by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-20T04:14:40
2023-12-31T20:20:13
2023-12-31T20:20:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2Q5gCZOBy7TnIdEjMpAa
Will Elon Musk attempt to sell Twitter before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-20T04:13:22
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T17:07:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VO673sMDopjKywaMIqrH
Will Elon Musk attempt to sell Twitter before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-20T04:12:47
2023-12-31T20:36:37
2023-12-31T20:36:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rCarz81AxYofBjtxVXxD
Will Apple acquire TSMC by 2025?
Apple last week announced they were moving a large fraction of their chip production from Asia to Arizona in a new fab joint venture with TSMC. TSMC is 1/5th the size of Apple, so it would barely dent the balance sheet to gobble up the Taiwanese national champion. The more I think about it, the more I am tempted to think Tim Cook might be the only person alive that could pull something like that off, so who knows. Chips are the new black...
2022-11-20T04:05:23
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:29:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kWuoESmtM6PNIGhqQBEB
Will Donald Trump have 100 million followers on Twitter by June 1, 2023?
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump?lang=en Currently 87.8mm. Could maybe close the gap if Twitter buys TruthSocial. (https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-twitter-acquire-truth-social-b)
2022-11-20T01:29:21
2023-05-31T20:59:00
2023-06-01T05:24:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3zGTOte61ULeQOlyA3VY
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
Resolves yes if the PRC attempts to physically invade Taiwan in the year of 2024.
2022-11-19T20:30:25
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T21:03:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bOwE0RtCSrJwZeu65xCa
By the end of 2023, will Elon Musk claim he is an Effective Altruist?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-19T18:02:23
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T22:05:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hWPaDj7MQEdh9Vlf8JVE
Donald Trump will be banned from twitter by 2/14/2024
This market rezolves 2 yes if Trump is banned from twiter by 2/14/2024 cuz we all know what happens then!
2022-11-19T18:01:39
2024-02-13T15:59:00
2024-02-21T05:16:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-F2zDQl4IEhJf0ObFg6Pc
If Joe Biden is not the Democratic presidential nominee, will it be Harris or Newsom?
If Joe Biden is chosen as the 2024 Democratic Presidential nominee, resolves N/A. Otherwise, resolves YES if Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom is chosen.
2022-11-19T09:50:18
2024-08-11T21:42:57
2024-08-11T21:42:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-y7SDc2DY2BQGsRUuAOud
Will a browser not made by Google or Apple have at least a 15% market share by the end of 2023?
Resolves to YES on December 31, 2023, if the worldwide market share of an "alternative" browser exceeds 15% based on statcounter (all device types). Current standings: 65% Chrome 19% Safari 4% Edge 3% Firefox ... Historical chart: [image]
2022-11-19T09:41:42
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T22:00:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mOfc86gPxWorUBEl88PR
Will Russia declare a general mobilization before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-18T23:38:54
2023-12-31T05:00:00
2024-01-01T00:28:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HKMyzI3GIZFVvyTU97AD
Assault weapons ban before 2025
[image]Option will resolve as "yes" if United States executive and legislative branches pass and sign a bill banning assault weapons before 2025 (even if the bill is not enforced until after 2025) OR United States executive branch signs an order banning assault weapons, and such order is actually enforced before 2025 OR A United States federal agency announces a new policy banning assault weapons, and such policy is actually enforced before 2025 Any bill, order, or policy which refers to itself as an “assault weapons ban” will counted as an assault weapons ban. If the bill, order or policy does not refer to itself as an assault weapons ban, I will look at the effects of the law on an average Americans ability to purchase an assault weapon.   “Assault weapon” is a nebulous category. For the purposes of this bet, I will look the Wesson M&P 15 Sport, the Sig Saur MCX Rattler, the Century Arms VSKA, the FN Scar, and the Daniel Defense MK 18. If the majority of these models are made unavailable for civilian purchase, or are neutered to comply with new laws, option will resolve as “yes”. If most of these models are still available for civilian purchase, in configurations that are same or improved (from a consumer’s standpoint), AND there has been no bill passed, executive order signed or federal agency policy change that calls itself an “assault weapons ban”, option will resolve as “no”.
2022-11-18T22:48:11
2024-12-31T22:02:00
2025-01-01T00:53:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UV5vVWxiZQ7YvykbVAM9
Will Destiny and Sam Seder talk again before 2024?
Not inlcuding texts/dms, must be on stream/video/real life.
2022-11-18T19:58:13
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T09:48:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fzXiap6ONqHa9TbT1QBP
Will Destiny talk to Ethan Klein publicly before 2024?
Not through text/dms, talking either on a stream, video, or in real life.
2022-11-18T19:54:20
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T09:49:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wiz4XJ42FrJzMN3gjpAT
Will Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-18T17:42:07
2023-03-30T16:02:18
2023-03-30T16:02:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly
Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?
Within two weeks of release. Market resolves "No" if there is no manifesto by the end of 2023. Edit 1/7/2023: For this market to resolve "Yes" Destiny must either watch the video released by Mr. Girl or read the article. If Destiny reacts to someone watching the video or reading the article the market will also resolve "Yes". Short clips will not count, Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream. Edit 3/13/2023: Due to length and nature of manifesto evolving extensively, I'm going to offer a final clarification to this market. There is probably no criteria which will satisfy everyone, but I think this update embodies the original spirit of the market and remains in line with the previous update. In addition, I also think it's likely that it will be obvious once the dust has settled which direction the market should resolve. This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the article. Given the article's extensive length, singling out only a handful of particular sections (even if the sections are the most rhetorically significant) will not count. However, seeing as it is unrealistic that Destiny will read all 100+ pages of the article on stream, an engagement which involves skimming through the entire article, or skipping sections he finds irrelevant or uninteresting will still count towards YES. He does not need to respond to every point in the article, nor does he have to finish it, but if he engages with the larger revelations and analysis the market will resolve YES. Extensive discussion of the article will only count towards YES if that discussion encompasses a breadth of the article's content.
2022-11-18T17:07:11
2023-04-04T18:54:47
2023-04-04T18:54:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DbT8Nv83cMyYIQXv2oeG
Will Ticketmaster be deemed a monopoly by the end of 2023?
If any law or legal action gets taken against ticketmaster, successfully, causing it to split in smaller companies
2022-11-18T14:02:10
2023-12-31T21:01:00
2023-12-31T21:10:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4puPVNlPzjSJDzPMUFd3
Will Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones, @infowars) tweet in 2023?
This market will resolve to YES if one of the accounts @RealAlexJones and @infowars tweets between November 18, 2022, and January 1, 2024. 2022 market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/will-alex-jones-realalexjones-infow) Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-11-18T12:28:18
2023-12-11T03:00:38
2023-12-11T03:00:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gGnxdT90w0mxEPTVwD9S
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for 2024 presidency?
This question will resolve YES if Elon Musk announces that he will vote for, or is encouraging other people to vote for, Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, resolves NO after election day.
2022-11-18T12:19:23
2024-07-13T16:11:50
2024-07-13T16:11:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5wpx7KZxtlknjihg6xsu
Will the Twitter API Status page report a "Major Outage" by 2023-05-04?
Source data: https://api.twitterstat.us/ If the dashboard no longer lists "Major Outage" as an option on expiry, this market will be canceled.
2022-11-18T10:32:28
2023-05-04T00:00:00
2023-05-05T12:51:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-e2l3AX2ujpE1OCpoRVeH
Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before 5 May 2023?
While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (Al Arabiya, Daily Beast, Parley Policy Initiative). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the announced ceasefire to count. The date a ceasefire would take effect is immaterial. This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement and The Economist.
2022-11-18T10:23:11
2023-05-05T10:24:00
2023-05-06T06:31:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6FnMgbeDSPMiMJ0Hlehd
Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace?
Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement and The Economist.
2022-11-18T10:22:16
2023-10-01T10:24:00
2023-10-01T13:40:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9YdH2Wobzidq0pcbZxqQ
Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before March 1 2023?
SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com). This market is a copy of The World Ahead forecasting challenge by Good Judgement and The Economist.
2022-11-18T10:19:40
2023-03-01T10:24:00
2023-03-06T12:29:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iy95pbfoMeo3NYEylt0c
Will Tesla report automotive gross profit margins lower than 19.5% in any fiscal year by 2028?
If Tesla stops reporting this metric, changes the accounting standard materially, Tesla goes private or any other unpredicted thing happens, this market will be resolved as N/A! [image]I may bet on this market. [markets]
2022-11-18T08:41:13
2024-01-24T18:27:57
2024-01-24T18:27:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TSwAFwrAjuwttFfRh5bQ
Will any Rational Animations video released in 2023 or late 2022 have over 2 million views by the end of 2024?
https://www.youtube.com/c/RationalAnimations Any video released from Nov 18, 2022 to December 31 2023 qualifies.
2022-11-18T08:05:00
2024-12-31T21:00:00
2025-01-01T16:32:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5S3AApt7AYNMYmdDFaq0
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
including tests
2022-11-18T07:17:42
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2023-12-31T22:17:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-biaKFKeHsUs7qzBy1O3R
Will the cryptocurrency market's total market capitalization set a new all-time high within the next 10 years?
Resolves YES if the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market exceeds $3,080,321,493,191.00 at any point within the next 10 years. Resolves NO otherwise. See: https://www.coingecko.com/en/global-charts
2022-11-17T23:12:35
2024-12-12T22:37:12
2024-12-12T22:37:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qDnFR5h3hV8tUbqQytYh
Will Bitcoin's total market capitalization set a new all-time high within the next 10 years?
Resolves YES if the total market capitalization of Bitcoin exceeds $1,278,797,895,528 at any point within the next 10 years. Resolves NO otherwise. See: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
2022-11-17T23:11:22
2024-03-08T11:29:49
2024-03-08T11:29:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7TWbauUImm3uOZQOaAmV
Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-17T17:49:41
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T05:32:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Wzni2A6Ggx1TuW12SYyh
Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2024?
Resolves yes if there is a model that receives a natural language description (e.g."Give me a video of a puppy playing with a kitten") and outputs a realistic looking video matching the description. It does *not* have to be *undetectable* as AI generated, merely "realistic enough". It must be able to consistently generate realistic videos >=30 seconds long to count. DALL-E 2 (https://cdn.openai.com/papers/dall-e-2.pdf) counts as "realistic enough" *image* generation from natural language descriptions (I am writing this before the model is fully available, if it turns out that all the samples are heavily cherry picked DALL-E 2 does not count but a hypothetical model as good as the cherry picked examples would). Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate
2022-11-17T17:41:40
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-08T16:08:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-X45wvvRyhKkLPEIIRZGW
Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed?
Nov 17, 6:22pm: Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's loan forgiveness program to proceed? → Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed? Nov 17, 6:22pm: Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed? → Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed?
2022-11-17T15:22:25
2023-06-30T07:38:31
2023-06-30T07:38:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DzZGJngJ2rtHdwxYdQE7
Will Rick Scott run for the GOP nomination in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-17T15:20:04
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:06:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lNDTPhfgAEmhsufShZCU
Will reliable sources report that Twitter is struggling to hire software engineers between January 2023 and June 2023?
Same definition of reliable sources as Wikipedia. Note that the media should report this as a fact, not as "sources claim" or such weasel words.
2022-11-17T13:30:13
2023-06-01T23:35:35
2023-06-01T23:35:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-K5UrdMeEMwbg3kIIG6x1
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan be the President of Turkey on January 1, 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on January 1, 20243 (12 PM ET), Recep Tayyip Erdogan is officially recognised as the President of the Republic of Türkiye (Turkey). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A consensus of credible media reports will be used to resolve this market. If the office of the President dissolves or substantially changes, this market will resolve to "No", regardless who is the executive head of Türkiye on January 1, 2024.
2022-11-17T10:15:04
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T05:39:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cs7PL9fKpdYMZR6w58XM
Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan as Speaker of the House?
Resolves N/A if McCarthy not elected Speaker. Resolves YES if McCarthy becomes Speaker and visits Taiwan during the 118th Congress.
2022-11-17T01:50:14
2023-10-30T02:30:37
2023-10-30T02:30:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CfGVdb4Kc1i6uG3CJ4h1
Will Tom Brady endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T21:57:44
2024-11-06T12:48:12
2024-11-06T12:48:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7Ubyr2NxMMaDN7CbBA3H
Will Blake Masters endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T20:56:18
2024-11-07T20:59:00
2024-11-09T11:12:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TWSyTiEJfMboPr8mUYGu
Will SBF still be alive by end of 2023?
Resolves to YES if by the closing date SBF is still alive and well. Resolves to NO if SBF dies.
2022-11-16T20:19:22
2023-12-31T12:20:00
2023-12-31T14:43:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WXBnuggN21MxUAKNJKcM
Will Sen. Dianne Feinstein run for reelection in 2024?
She filed the initial FEC paperwork to run in early 2021, though her staff said that this didn't mean that she would necessarily do it. Hypothetically, she would be 91 at the start of the term and 97 at the end. Close date updated to 2024-03-11 3:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-12-08 11:59 pm
2022-11-16T19:41:33
2023-09-29T07:03:48
2023-09-29T07:03:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cjGmgrGW7tiJW7ojoejo
Will Lex Fridman interview SBF by 2024?
Related: [markets]
2022-11-16T13:54:47
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T12:41:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rdBDy4UXIZppxOjsyear
Will 2023 be the warmest year on record?
I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available), counting an exact match (1.02) as a "no". If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022. Edit 2023-08-08: past numbers changed to 1.01, so now a 1.02 or higher resolves YES and a 1.01 or lower resolves NO. Edit 2023-08-15: past numbers changed back to 1.02 again, so now a 1.03 or higher resolves YES and a 1.02 or lower resolves NO. Resolution will be based on what the number is in Jan 2024.
2022-11-16T11:11:44
2024-01-12T12:52:49
2024-01-12T12:52:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7pAa0IsFytGNkO6GE5yN
Will Sneako vote for Donald Trump in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T10:35:22
2024-11-06T00:27:28
2024-11-06T00:27:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-thk4Fk6DRgpie3FT4lZZ
Will Ron Johnson endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T10:07:16
2024-06-16T12:00:52
2024-06-16T12:00:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-h2BF9rd5VY01FaVSbXpB
Will Trump win the Virginia Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T10:04:27
2024-03-06T03:07:54
2024-03-06T03:07:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1cA80FU3mEa2k0i8eW3F
Will Trump win the Colorado Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T10:03:01
2024-03-06T03:09:19
2024-03-06T03:09:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fltPI55eyhh36NIwrPpR
Will Trump win the Nevada caucus?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T10:02:40
2024-02-09T18:36:58
2024-02-09T18:36:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wjqlThiba2wVW3hm6MnP
Will Trump win the Utah Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T10:02:24
2024-03-06T03:08:29
2024-03-06T03:08:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DXBEFLwQ9H3PbvnoxNOP
Will Trump win the Arizona Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T10:01:46
2024-03-19T23:23:06
2024-03-19T23:23:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ty2wjtZq4VRQeKOgtTKI
Will Trump win the Louisiana Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T10:01:37
2024-03-24T13:06:05
2024-03-24T13:06:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LekfH4GrxOnfs2xsdDn7
Will Peter Thiel endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:58:32
2024-11-07T07:28:09
2024-11-07T07:28:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YHNRDYczlUUZUHeu7HNK
Will Trump win the Ohio Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:54:24
2024-03-19T23:22:29
2024-03-19T23:22:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-G3hnti1hirYok90nhxRJ
Will Trump win the Tennessee Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:53:35
2024-03-06T03:07:35
2024-03-06T03:07:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eDRXOkVrhmMsAvQEHU9y
Will Trump win the Mississippi Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:53:07
2024-03-13T18:14:57
2024-03-13T18:14:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-qBF0dSKCv826uOXzU4hc
Will Trump win the Missouri Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:52:53
2024-03-02T20:55:45
2024-03-02T20:55:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fLmwuuRRuyRDr9CvCb91
Will Trump win the Wisconsin Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:52:17
2024-04-03T14:45:06
2024-04-03T14:45:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DnQbDPvFwRinSoav07a6
Will Trump win the Michigan Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:51:55
2024-02-28T15:43:49
2024-02-28T15:43:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dAMWkMSoy5AF5tpq0J2g
Will Trump win the New York Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:51:23
2024-04-03T14:45:18
2024-04-03T14:45:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SEXfYfLRNEDo7xTH8XL1
Will Trump win the California Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:51:06
2024-03-06T03:07:13
2024-03-06T03:07:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jH4R7WFwIcILLxJg3S80
Will Trump win the Texas Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:50:04
2024-03-06T03:08:17
2024-03-06T03:08:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2HG9hYxaROScIwuUKwD9
Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary?
Nov 16, 1:05pm: Will Trump win the North Carolina Primary? → Will Trump win the Sorth Carolina Primary? Nov 16, 1:06pm: Will Trump win the Sorth Carolina Primary? → Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary?
2022-11-16T09:49:30
2024-02-24T18:31:27
2024-02-24T18:31:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YVJYFmOjds47X20cX77X
Will Trump win the Alabama Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:49:02
2024-03-10T04:15:47
2024-03-10T04:15:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XBJ75FKYu5qyrypxjfUp
Will Trump win the Georgia Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:48:45
2024-03-13T17:39:34
2024-03-13T17:39:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gHWx7gzkBfBwZW0s16Un
Will Trump win the Florida Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:48:24
2024-03-19T23:22:43
2024-03-19T23:22:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6PRVVzCtifOxdVGJNA7a
Will Trump win the NH Primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:47:51
2024-01-24T18:10:00
2024-01-24T18:10:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-eNMla3nippbv8PifenNo
Will Trump win the Iowa Caucus?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:47:32
2024-01-16T10:27:40
2024-01-16T10:27:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FoQjTKTN70yMHPRPyGRO
Will Chuck Grassley endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:45:24
2024-06-16T12:01:09
2024-06-16T12:01:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9xMUeRBw6WWNbsxYsZia
Will Tim Scott endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:44:26
2024-01-20T14:47:40
2024-01-20T14:47:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-o8btYPlagwLMHyNcZhAw
Will Marco Rubio endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:43:57
2024-01-14T13:46:46
2024-01-14T13:46:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2B6VTKK9r3fjuOQXcMpH
Will Kevin McCarthy endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:30:38
2023-12-11T14:18:48
2023-12-11T14:18:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gVqCwsdXtBmhK4z8SkmG
Will MTG endorse Trump?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T09:29:59
2023-12-01T04:50:08
2023-12-01T04:50:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HjiEyx59fhaHUTpNTpfw
Any country invokes article 5 of NATO before 2025
What is Article 5? Under Article 5, Nato’s charter stipulates that “the Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” Nato says: “It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the Alliance.” Article 5 has only been invoked once before; after the 9/11 attacks on the US. It included launching Nato’s first ever anti-terror operation. What this means, in essence, is that if Russia launches as attack against any Nato member, all 30 will be at war with President Putin’s country, including the UK and the US. Resolved if any country attempts to invoke Article 5 even if they are not successful.
2022-11-16T09:05:26
2024-12-31T16:01:00
2025-01-06T00:08:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HaHgVdax8SJs3HAMnvrg
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-16T05:59:45
2024-08-16T10:40:55
2024-08-16T10:40:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1GLcfEqDMtiw6vVYhaNH
Will Ukraine retake the city of Donetsk before the end of 2023?
As determined by control of the town square/city hall.
2022-11-16T04:42:03
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:03:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4JGPKXEWnDWTtEWUEHyH
Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2023?
Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm If any NATO member country invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 15, 2022, and December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice. market for 2022: [markets]
2022-11-16T02:31:56
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T07:41:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3Xs3Z9yacr1YD46gausb
Will Keffals publicly retract past statements she's made about Destiny? [By 2025]
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-15T20:28:04
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-02-20T23:41:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7sn2rudbCLRGNq9T85DH
Will FiveThirtyEight publish a 2024 Republican primaries forecast?
I believe the only primary forecast so far they've published was for the 2020 Democratic primaries. This market resolves YES if FiveThirtyEight publishes a forecast before the first caucus or primary that lists probabilities for Republican presidential candidates to win the 2024 nomination. It resolves NO otherwise. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/will-fivethirtyeight-publish-a-2024-652e6f6dc52c)
2022-11-15T19:33:28
2024-02-01T17:45:16
2024-02-01T17:45:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yaka9zRiAGqcWPMlSd7u
Was the Poland missile strike an intentional escalation by Russia?
Kinda hard to set clear resolution guidelines. If there isn't a super clear answer to this after 6 months, I'll ask 3 random active/reputable users in the Manifold Discord and resolve to what they say.
2022-11-15T15:24:41
2023-05-15T10:44:32
2023-05-15T10:44:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iKvbwIJfbkfakdnYDGsH
In a year, will Peter Wildeford believe that AI is the largest single source of existential risk?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-15T14:26:27
2023-11-15T15:59:00
2024-08-18T16:59:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NEehUQgOUPm2UuVFczQx
Will Sir Keir Starmer (Labour Party) be the UK's next prime minister?
Close date updated to 2025-02-28 11:59 pm
2022-11-15T13:28:01
2024-07-02T15:59:00
2024-07-05T03:01:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3rKEldxZEJPZQL6n1NFI
Will there be a direct military conflict between Poland and Russia before the end of 2023?
This market resolves as "Yes" if there is any direct combat between Russian and Polish forces. Note that both sides need to be directly involved in the conflict (i.e there needs to be an exchange of bullets/rockets). Background: On Tuesday (15.11.2022) Russian rockets crossed into Polish territory and killed 2 people. In response, the Polish State Security Council convened. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52
2022-11-15T11:32:19
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T13:38:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-d8VQMqyNWGCtt0TpCFFA
Will Paul Christiano's "Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer" post still be the most upvoted post on LessWrong at the beginning of 2025?
The current top post is this one. You can see a list of the current top posts here.
2022-11-15T11:11:36
2024-12-31T21:00:00
2025-01-02T12:33:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GAOEslqidlDEdDtKadTU
GPT-4 #2: Will GPT-4 be at least partially trained with RL?
The obvious YES resolution is if some form of RLHF (https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03741) is used, but others forms of RL would count. The RL loop must actually directly affect the weights. If there's some RL for, say, architecture search or hyperparameter optimization as an outer loop that doesn't count. Nov 25, 11:10pm: Will GPT-4 be at least partially trained with RL? → GPT-4 #2: Will GPT-4 be at least partially trained with RL?
2022-11-15T10:02:46
2023-03-14T11:08:24
2023-03-14T11:08:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ENuDUgUEQ6bqw8xHWKOK
Will Twitter have an unprecedented outage by modern Twitter standards (1 day or longer) by January 1st 2024?
This market is based off this poll from Dan Luu: https://twitter.com/altluu/status/1590993677715148802 "unprecedented outage" here specifically means 1 day or longer, where >= 50% of U.S. users or >= 25% of global users find Twitter to be unusable. The market will resolve if Dan believes there has such an outage or, if he doesn't comment, whether I believe that.
2022-11-15T01:14:18
2024-01-01T15:59:00
2024-01-01T16:24:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QvqGyjo5ZAz5Z7cGMpku
Will a G-20 world leader die of COVID-19 by the end of of April 2023?
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said that he tested positive for Covid-19 just two days after meeting world leaders including US President Joe Biden - Bloomberg During with interview with the press after meeting with China president Xi Jinping before the G20, Biden coughed and claimed he had a cold. This market will resolve to YES if a sitting Chief of State or Chief of Government of a G-20 country, the Chiefs of the European Comission and European Council or a de facto Chief of State dies of COVID, as reported by the WSJ or the NYT by the end of March 2023. The G-20 Countries are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States and the European Union. As always, I won't bet. Close date updated to 2023-04-30 12:00 am
2022-11-14T18:07:10
2023-04-29T20:00:00
2023-05-04T20:14:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RA6WgWYRH1NEpyRMVfaN
Will a Democrat win the 2024 election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-14T13:09:19
2024-11-06T14:11:51
2024-11-06T14:11:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jNxX1P00ugsn8zT9XWB2
Will Xi Jinping sit for an interview with a major US media outlet by the end of 2023?
To date, Xi has ONLY ONCE submitted to an interview with Western media, with the WSJ in 2015. That is truly remarkable.
2022-11-14T11:43:20
2023-12-31T20:12:33
2023-12-31T20:12:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CnUPcXOO1oWtugSWAZuZ
Will MrGirl's "investigation" conclude that Destiny is a serial sexual abuser?
If the line is blurry on the conclusion, I'll cancel the market returning everyone's investment. Close date updated to 2023-02-01 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-04-01 11:59 pm
2022-11-14T10:34:51
2023-04-01T21:59:00
2023-04-12T09:26:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-H4jvRcIaD8ycZ3VaHOZx
Will the US intercept a North Korean missile before the end of 2023?
Missile tests and real world combat both count.
2022-11-14T10:03:12
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:01:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ad6tsmUDciCq0ggm7zVC
Will CZ (Changpeng Zhao) be the CEO of Binance through 2023?
If Changpeng Zhao remains in charge as CEO of Binance through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes". If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
2022-11-14T09:58:01
2023-11-21T17:06:24
2023-11-21T17:06:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FstwuuWDNJSgXUISnvEv
Will SBF testify at his trial?
(Pure YES/NO, regardless of trial happening)
2022-11-14T08:10:36
2023-10-27T11:16:44
2023-10-27T11:16:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7zySaTGhVX26gMokqwGy
Will Trafalgar have their polls banned from 538 by the end of 2023?
Trafalgar is a partisan pollster for Republican Party. Some claim, that they are fraud and their polls are totally made up. Will 538 stop using Trafalgar's polls in their models by the end of 2023? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
2022-11-14T07:40:53
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T14:09:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eNpBibkiBOFlOkgUt2KG
Will the UK Conservative party win the next election?
Close date updated to 2022-11-21 11:59 pm
2022-11-14T07:15:06
2024-07-06T13:00:19
2024-07-06T13:00:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6VaXquGxSkHTfNwjCZSA
Will Twitter increase its number of active users, in a year after Musk's takeover?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-14T07:07:58
2023-10-28T14:59:00
2023-11-09T00:06:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-oTb3yX2RwG5xM3pYVNB6
Will the mystery woman in Destiny's cheating secret be revealed by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-14T06:51:24
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T16:35:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Y6NWeQHidIDWVfWOtA8t
Will Sergey Shoygu still be the Minister of Defence of Russia on January 1, 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-14T06:36:54
2024-01-05T02:19:32
2024-01-05T02:19:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EPoUdJVhWS3imcWbyn5D
Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty of more than 10 years in prison before 2030?
Market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Bankman Fried is sentenced by a judge in any jurisdiction to serve more than ten years in prison before 2030.
2022-11-14T05:47:40
2024-03-28T09:27:45
2024-03-28T09:27:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ukoHs1c0WE1SRz3OCsNz
Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty of more than 20 years in prison before 2030?
Market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Bankman Fried is sentenced by a judge in any jurisdiction to serve more than twenty years in prison before 2030.
2022-11-14T05:45:51
2024-03-28T09:31:25
2024-03-28T09:31:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Hm55NKmeHcT7tNoUueC0
Will Tesla report advertising spending for any of the fiscal years 2022 or 2023?
Marketing, Promotional and Advertising Costs Marketing, promotional and advertising costs are expensed as incurred and are included as an element of selling, general and administrative expense in the consolidated statement of operations. Marketing, promotional and advertising costs were immaterial for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019. Recently the media reported that SpaceX is buying ads on Twitter. Therefore I am creating this slightly different market (because this one is easily auditable!) that will resolve to YES if Tesla has material advertising costs on their SEC Financials. For comparison, Ford reported $3.1B in advertising spending in 2021 and General Motors spent $3.3B. As always, I won't bet.
2022-11-13T22:00:12
2024-01-29T09:13:11
2024-01-29T09:13:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-itp5VrZTioFlYG1QZ2ht
Will any prediction market clearly elicit knowledge about an important event that was otherwise unknown to the public before 2025?
I keep seeing people talk about prediction markets as though they're some magic way to gain knowledge that isn't publically available. (e.g. #9 here.) As I explained in a response to that post, this seems overly optimistic to me. Markets are very good about updating on public information once it's known, but can they reliably do so beforehand? See for example all the election markets that just track the polls until vote counts start coming in and then update based on tweets. What prediction value are those providing exactly? Prediction markets are great at aggregating public information, but I'm not convinced they're actually that useful for prediction of future events, especially when those events are highly contingent upon a small group of people or tightly-guarded information. This market resolves to YES if someone gives me an example of a market (doesn't have to be on Manifold) about some notable real-world event that had a mysteriously high or low price for quite a while, followed by the reason for that price later becoming known. For example, if this market had been at upwards of 20% before any of the news broke anywhere else, that would convince me that prediction markets might actually work for fraud detection. Otherwise it resolves to NO at the beginning of 2025.
2022-11-13T15:52:08
2023-06-22T09:50:45
2023-06-22T09:50:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QYevHlWD9BGpXg2UiGfP
Will Melina and Destiny stop seeing each other before 1/1/2024?
Idea credit: Dan the Man
2022-11-13T14:40:57
2023-12-11T12:27:42
2023-12-11T12:27:42
yes
MANIFOLD