id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-20091 | Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024? | KalshiEX LLC [sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/predictions-market-kalshi-sues-cftc-blocking-election-contracts-2023-11-01/) for overstepping its authority by rejecting its proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. Kalshi argued these c... | 2023-11-23T18:41:00Z | 2024-11-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-09-06T13:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20063 | Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended? | On November 22, 2023, [Qatar announced](https://www.mofa.gov.qa/en/statements/the-state-of-qatar-announces-that-a-humanitarian-pause-has-been-agreed-in-gaza) that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement to implement a humanitarian pause. The announcement reads a follows:
>The State of Qatar announces the success of ... | 2023-11-22T19:00:00Z | 2023-11-30T23:00:00Z | 2023-11-28T10:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20043 | Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023? | From [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/20/microsoft-openai-sam-saltman-fired/).
> The future of OpenAI was thrown into chaos Monday after nearly all employees at the artificial intelligence company threatened to quit and join ousted chief executive Sam Altman at Microsoft, extendi... | 2023-11-20T21:00:00Z | 2023-11-30T19:00:00Z | 2023-11-30T01:08:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20042 | Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023? | Per [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-do-we-now-about-hamas-hostages-2023-10-19/) on October 20, Hamas has said it captured 200 hostages and that 50 more are held by other groups in Gaza, while public broadcaster Kan said 200 Israelis were being held in Gaza.
On October 26, Hamas said that "alm... | 2023-11-21T23:30:00Z | 2023-12-31T21:59:00Z | 2023-11-25T21:48:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20039 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.
Since then, reports have emerged that the [U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com... | 2023-11-24T21:02:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-04T03:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-20038 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023? | ChatGPT's uptime has exceeded 99% for every month except the month of launch, with Feburary at 98.28%.
Software reliability is often measured in "number of 9"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc.
OpenAI's future is uncertain following the ouster of CEO Sam Altman, prompting speculation that ChatGPT may [cease to wor... | 2023-11-20T20:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T17:39:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20024 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | NATO is an is an intergovernmental military alliance established in the aftermath of World War II. During the Cold War, the main purpose of NATO was to provide collective security against the Soviet Union and its allies, the Warsaw Pact. Recently, NATO has provided a European system of security against Russia, viewed... | 2023-12-10T17:34:00Z | 2025-01-01T12:00:00Z | 2024-03-07T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-20005 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e).
In a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:
> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by... | 2023-11-18T03:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2025-01-06T20:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19997 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as fol... | 2023-12-01T22:30:00Z | 2024-05-25T22:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T15:39:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19975 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group (SIG), established by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, coordinates between the CDC, National Institutes of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, and Department of Defense. This group is responsible for classifying ... | 2023-12-01T22:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T23:00:00Z | 2024-03-01T15:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19969 | Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024? | **See also**: [How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18694/amount-of-new-ukraine-aid-package/)
Between January 2022 and July 2023, the US has provided Ukraine with $46.6 billion in military aid, $3.9 billion in humanitarian aid and... | 2023-11-28T19:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-14T15:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19960 | Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024? | George Santos, a U.S. Representative, faces scrutiny over fabrications in his background and potential legal issues. On the 16th of November, [the House Ethics committee released a report into various aspects of Santos' conduct](https://ethics.house.gov/press-releases/statement-chairman-and-ranking-member-committee-eth... | 2023-11-16T20:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-01T16:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19959 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a pr... | 2023-11-17T18:54:00Z | 2024-11-04T19:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19942 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on "all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us... | 2023-12-12T21:19:00Z | 2024-11-30T11:00:00Z | 2025-01-14T07:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19919 | Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023? | [New Delhi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Delhi), the capital of India, has [been experiencing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19590/new-delhi-air-quality-end-of-october-2023/) very poor air quality. According to data from [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Del... | 2023-11-15T20:10:00Z | 2023-11-30T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-01T16:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19909 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024? | From the onset of the [Gaza-Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza–Israel_conflict) conflict, many pro-Israeli nations have shown their support for Israel [via high profile visits](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-11-03/why-canada-is-taking-a-cautious-approach-to-the-israel-hamas-war) includ... | 2023-11-15T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-04T12:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T17:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19898 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | At the beginning of 2023 BTC traded at between $16,000 and $17,000 in the wake of the [FTX collapse](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/technology/ftx-binance-crypto-explained.html) in late 2022 and a general [crypto market downturn in 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-crypto-contagion-from-bitcoin-to-FTX/)... | 2023-11-15T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-12-04T00:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19877 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | In May 2014, the [WHO declared the spread of poliovirus a global health emergency,](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/#:~:text=On%205%20May%202014%20the,poliovirus%2C%20and%20requested%20a%20reassessment) leading to ongoing efforts to combat the disease. As of 2023, count... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-06-06T16:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19873 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Germany finalized its long-planned exit from nuclear energy in [April 2023](https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-phase-out_node.html), shutting down its last three nuclear power plants. This decision was part of a [policy shift that began in 1998](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/countr... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-06-01T16:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19871 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | In the current AI landscape, there's a significant divide between proprietary and open-source AI models. Proprietary AI, represented by LLM models like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, boasts substantial market influence and development, supported by extensive resources and large model and training run sizes. O... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T16:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19870 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | While major tech companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Google have actively released their Large Language Models (LLMs) to the public, Apple remains an exception in this trend. Despite its significant advancements and investments in AI, particularly with the internal development of the rumoured [Ajax-powered chatbot](https:... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-06-01T04:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19869 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Founded in 2015 by notable figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman, OpenAI began as a non-profit organization with a vision to advance AI technology for the benefit of humanity. However, in 2019, OpenAI transitioned to a ["capped" for-profit model](https://www.lxahub.com/stories/the-history-of-openai), known as OpenAI LP... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-06-01T16:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19868 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | In October 2022, Elon Musk completed the acquisition of Twitter for [$44 billion](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html), transitioning the company from a public to a [private entity](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/technology/twitter-changes.html#:~:text=Making%20Twitter... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T15:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19867 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Elon Musk, the world’s richest person known for leading companies like SpaceX and Tesla, expanded his portfolio by acquiring Twitter for [$44 billion](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63402338) in October 2022. Under his leadership, the company underwent significant changes, including a rebranding to "X" in July 2... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T16:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19866 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Nuclear whistle-blowers in the United States have played a crucial role in highlighting safety concerns in the nuclear industry, often at significant personal risk. Beginning with prominent figures like [Karen Silkwood in 1974](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Karen-Silkwood), who raised alarms about health and saf... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-06-06T20:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19865 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Building nuclear power plants in the United States is an [exceptionally challenging and complex endeavor.](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57280#:~:text=Most%20U.S.%20nuclear%20reactors%20were,reactor%20came%20online%20in%202016.) The process is fraught with stringent regulatory requirements, high finan... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-06-01T07:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19851 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Rishi Sunak assumed office as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in October 2022, following the turbulent tenure of Liz Truss. His first year was dominated by efforts to stabilize the UK's economy, grappling with high inflation and the repercussions of Truss’s policies. Sunak focused on [austerity measures and pr... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T23:56:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19850 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.), primarily due to the escalating... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T16:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19849 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.) due to the escalating violence b... | 2023-12-01T15:30:00Z | 2024-02-29T12:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T15:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19846 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Late October 2023, [a new pastry called the _crompouce_](https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/28/tiktok-craze-bakery-crompouce-becomes-new-pastry-sensation) [went viral in The Netherlands](https://www.iamexpat.nl/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/crompouce-croissant-tompouce-hybrid-takes-over-dutch-tiktok). A crompouce is a hybrid betwee... | 2023-11-25T21:24:00Z | 2024-04-30T10:00:00Z | 2024-04-30T20:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19810 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October ... | 2023-11-07T15:56:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-10T00:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19765 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Donald Trump is facing [four indictments](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/07/politics/trump-indictments-criminal-cases/) (in [New York, Florida, Washington DC, and Georgia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictments_against_Donald_Trump)) as well as a [civil case in New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_... | 2023-11-02T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T17:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19764 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | [SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starshi... | 2023-11-02T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-11-18T13:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19754 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Most basic foods in Germany are only taxed by 7% VAT. Plant-based milk is currently taxed at the default 19%. [Recently, the Green party and the governing SPD talked about reducing the VAT for plant-based milks.](https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/mehrwertsteuer-milchersatzprodukte-100.html)
Resolution C... | 2023-12-12T21:24:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:59:00Z | 2025-01-06T16:28:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19741 | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Senegal was [scheduled to hold presidential elections on February 25, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Senegalese_presidential_election), but on February 5 Senegalese President [Macky Sall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macky_Sall) announced that the elections would be [delayed until December](https://www.cnn.c... | 2024-02-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-04-03T22:00:00Z | 2024-04-02T18:28:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19700 | Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023? | An [initial public offering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering) (IPO) is the process by which a privately-held company goes public by offering a portion of its shares to public investors for the first time. So far in 2023, five Russian companies have IPO-ed on the [MICEX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... | 2023-11-02T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-11-21T15:15:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19593 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Mike Johnson has been elected the [Speaker of the House of Representatives](https://www.house.gov/feature-stories/2023-10-25-new-speaker-of-the-house), securing 220 votes, amid a tumultuous period marked by intra-Republican discord. He is the fourth Republican to be nominated for the role since Kevin McCarthy's removal... | 2023-11-01T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T17:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19592 | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | Canada and India have been in an [ongoing dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Canada%E2%80%93India_diplomatic_row) following Canada's public [allegation in September of 2023 that India was responsible for the killing of a Canadian citizen](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-indian-government-nijjar-1.6970... | 2023-10-27T14:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-02T22:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19590 | Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29? | According to an [article published by the BBC on October 24, 2023](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67166585):
>The air quality in India's capital Delhi has fallen to poor levels and is expected to deteriorate further in the coming days, officials have said.
>
>. . .
>
>Delhi is one of the world's most pollut... | 2023-10-27T14:00:00Z | 2023-11-03T22:00:00Z | 2023-11-06T23:13:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19554 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a [surprise offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the early d... | 2023-10-26T02:53:00Z | 2024-10-07T03:00:00Z | 2024-10-08T11:25:45Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19525 | Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election? | The 2023 Liberian election has led to a closely contested race between the incumbent President George Weah and opposition leader Joseph Boakai. The first round of the election, held on 10th October 2023, did not result in a clear winner as neither candidate secured the more than 50% of the votes required to avoid a run... | 2023-10-25T14:00:00Z | 2023-11-05T12:00:00Z | 2023-11-17T21:23:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19492 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched an attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), with [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-war-explained-week-2-mime-intl/index.html) stating that more than 1,400 Israeli civilians were killed. Following the attack [media r... | 2023-10-20T14:30:00Z | 2023-10-31T22:00:00Z | 2023-10-31T10:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19467 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | On the 17th of October 2023, [multiple](https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/17/at-least-500-killed-in-gaza-city-hospital-blast) [agencies](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/) [reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Ahli_Arab_Hospital... | 2023-10-18T20:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T17:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19444 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). Some reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/... | 2023-10-16T22:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T14:23:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19442 | Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)? | Peter Bone, a British Conservative Party politician, served as Deputy Leader of the House of Commons in 2022 and has been representing Wellingborough as an MP since 2005. On 16 October 2023, he was recommended for suspension from the House of Commons by the [Independent Expert Panel](https://rb.gy/ddpkb) for multiple a... | 2023-10-19T14:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2023-10-25T17:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19406 | Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize? | The [Booker Prize](https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2023) is an annual literary award for the best English-language novel published in the UK and Ireland. Established in 1969, it comes with a £50,000 prize and is selected by a five-person expert panel. The award has broad cultural impact, ofte... | 2023-11-09T19:00:00Z | 2023-11-25T12:00:00Z | 2023-11-27T04:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19396 | Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season? | French basketball phenom Victor Wembanyama was picked first overall in the 2023 NBA Draft. Soon after, [he was given an 84 rating for NBA 2k24, the highest rating for a rookie in the franchise's history.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10085735-victor-wembanyamas-nba2k24-rating-revealed-highest-rated-rookie-in-gam... | 2023-10-26T21:03:00Z | 2023-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2024-02-02T00:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19386 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise).
According to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:
> Initial informa... | 2023-10-13T20:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T07:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19375 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbolla... | 2023-10-13T00:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-09T18:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19361 | Will Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee be invited to the APEC summit in November 2023? | On July 27, 2023, the United States announced that it will [bar Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, from attending the APEC summit](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/27/hong-kong-john-lee-apec/), even though Hong Kong is an APEC member. Since then, the Hong Kong government has been [appealing ... | 2023-10-27T02:44:00Z | 2023-11-15T04:00:00Z | 2023-10-31T06:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19358 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | The U.S. federal funds target rate, often simply called the "fed funds rate," is the interest rate at which depository institutions (primarily banks) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, the... | 2023-10-18T14:00:00Z | 2023-12-12T12:00:00Z | 2023-12-18T16:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19350 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise).
According to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:
> Initial informa... | 2023-10-10T22:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-23T17:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19333 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square k... | 2023-10-09T20:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T17:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19332 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise).
According to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:
> Initial informa... | 2023-10-09T19:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T17:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19308 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square k... | 2023-10-08T12:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2024-01-03T20:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19306 | Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety? | *This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*
The [UK AI Safety Summit](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-introduction/ai-safety-summit-introduction-html) is taking place November 1st and 2nd, 2023. [According ... | 2023-10-10T14:00:00Z | 2023-10-31T22:00:00Z | 2023-11-21T13:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19297 | Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election? | The Mid Bedfordshire constituency in Bedfordshire, UK has been held by the Conservatives since 1931, with Nadine Dorries as MP since 2005. On June 9, 2023, Dorries unexpectedly announced she was resigning as MP "with immediate effect", triggering a [by-election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Mid_Bedfordshire_by-el... | 2023-10-10T14:00:00Z | 2023-10-18T11:00:00Z | 2023-10-20T21:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19192 | Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024? | Since 1999, the [United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MONUSCO) (MONUSCO) has been active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to aid in stabilizing the region during and after the [Second Congo War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik... | 2023-11-15T20:12:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-19T15:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19173 | [Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023? | On October 2, 2023, Representative Matt Gaetz [filed a motion to vacate the Office of Speaker of the House of Representatives](https://apnews.com/article/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-speaker-vacate-congress-e7e5ccc6cf79ccbf5b4a7b73b9d5a3ae) in a bid to oust Kevin McCarthy. The resolution requires a simple majority to pass... | 2023-10-03T15:15:00Z | 2023-10-03T18:00:00Z | 2023-10-03T20:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19131 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | The [Alignment Research Center](https://www.alignment.org) (ARC) runs a project called [ARC Evals](https://evals.alignment.org) that evaluates AI systems to see if they pose a catastrophic risk to the human species. [Update: [ARC Evals has spun out from ARC](https://metr.org/blog/2023-12-04-metr-announcement/), and has... | 2023-10-04T18:29:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-24T13:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19128 | Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024? | On September 29, 2023, NATO announced that it was [increasing troop presence in Kosovo](https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-clashes-raid-police-f671bd21560f60bdca72d2daf7ce50ef) after [violence between Serbian insurgents and Kosovan police](https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-policeman-killed-tension-kurti-vu... | 2023-09-29T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19110 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | The [I.N.D.I.A.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_National_Developmental_Inclusive_Alliance) alliance was formed on 18th July 2023, as a big-tent political alliance to contest the [next Indian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election) against the incumbent [Bharatiya Janata Party... | 2023-10-14T18:36:00Z | 2024-03-31T18:30:00Z | 2024-08-16T16:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-19104 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024? | Tokmak is a city in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast in Ukraine. It has a population of nearly 30,000. At the time of writing, it lies about 20km from the frontlines. The general purportedly leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive has said that liberating Tokmak is "[the minimum goal](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-bi... | 2023-10-06T22:46:00Z | 2023-12-31T19:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19102 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | On September 27, 2023, the House Financial Services Committee, chaired by Patrick McHenry, conducted an oversight hearing of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), featuring testimony from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. McHenry and the Committee Republicans criticized Gensler for what they perceived as a reckless ap... | 2023-10-11T02:05:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T21:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19089 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | [Bob Menendez](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Menendez), a Democratic U.S. Senator from New Jersey, has had a long-standing political career, serving in the Senate since 2006. Before his tenure in the Senate, Menendez held various other political positions, including serving in the House of Representatives from 1993... | 2023-09-27T01:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T22:00:00Z | 2023-10-01T07:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19021 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Note: This question is a stricter operationalization of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19020/llm-cyberattackvirusworm-before-2025/).
As large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are [concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/news... | 2023-09-28T19:28:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2025-01-06T20:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19020 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Note: This question is a looser operationalization of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19021/autonomous-llm-attackvirusworm-before-2025/).
As large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are [concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/... | 2023-09-28T19:28:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-19019 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | As large language models (LLMs) gain more impressive capabilities, there are increasing fears within the AI alignment community as well as the general public that these models could be misused to cause severely negative outcomes. While companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models closed, Meta has made its... | 2023-09-28T19:28:00Z | 2024-12-31T20:00:00Z | 2024-07-23T15:15:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18860 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | [Stepanakert, also known as Khankendi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepanakert), is the largest city in the [Nagorno-Karabakh region](https://freedomhouse.org/country/nagorno-karabakh). The region is mostly ethnic Armenian, but is a *de jure* part of Azerbaijan, which has led to [continuous disputes and two wars](htt... | 2023-09-20T14:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-10-02T20:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18859 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan [launched a military operation](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66852070) in Nagorno-Karabakh, a [breakaway region](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict) that has been the location of ongoing conflict - and two wars - between Azerbaijan ... | 2023-09-20T14:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-10-01T16:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18857 | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Finnish_presidential_election):
>Presidential elections are expected to be held in Finland on Sunday, 28 January 2024, with a possible second round on Sunday, 11 February 2024.
The President is elected by a direct vote, if necessary in two rounds. If one of... | 2024-01-17T15:30:00Z | 2024-01-28T18:00:00Z | 2024-01-28T21:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18854 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023? | *See the previous edition of this question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14483/gop-member-calls-speaker-vote-before-july/).*
---
[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Sp... | 2023-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z | 2023-10-01T07:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18739 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | The UK and India are pursuing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). While both sides are keen to sign a deal (for political and economic reasons), there are some sticking points (on issues like IP, migration, digital), and FTAs generally take quite a long time (3-10 years) to negotiate. From the UK PM Rishi Sunak's perspective... | 2023-09-22T19:24:00Z | 2025-01-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-07-04T17:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18716 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | *This question is modeled on [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18606/trump-removed-or-blocked-from-the-ballot/), but asks instead about the possibility of Trump's removal from primary election ballots.*
The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the "Disqualification... | 2023-09-12T21:24:00Z | 2024-07-14T17:00:00Z | 2024-07-16T01:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18696 | Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023? | The [Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023](https://www.democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/uap_amendment.pdf) is an extraordinary piece of legislation which contains the following passages:
> NON-HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.—The term ‘‘non-human intelligence’’ means any sentient intelligent non-human li... | 2023-09-13T16:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-10-01T16:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18695 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Erling Haaland plays for Manchester City, a football team which competes in a number of competitions, including the Premier League.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves **Yes** if Erling Haaland is the player with the largest number of goals after each of the 20 PL teams plays their 38th game of the 2023/24 seas... | 2023-09-26T22:20:00Z | 2024-05-19T17:59:00Z | 2024-05-20T01:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18693 | Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate? | The Republican primary debates are an opportunity for candidates to present themselves to US voters.
As of the creation of this question, the Republican field has a lot of candidates hoping to secure the nomination from the DNC.
The current polling favorite is Donald Trump, with 50%+ [average polling](https://projects... | 2023-09-13T20:36:00Z | 2023-09-28T10:00:00Z | 2023-09-28T04:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18690 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | *The background has been copied and updated from [this previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17554/black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023/).*
Following the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiat... | 2023-09-08T16:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T22:00:28.449000Z | 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18684 | Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023? | The potential for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve an exchange-traded fund (ETF) directly tracking the price of the cryptocurrency Ethereum has generated enthusiasm within the investment community. Such a product would offer conventional retail investors straightforward exposure to this emergent ... | 2023-09-08T21:44:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18681 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | In early September, India issued invitations to a state dinner at the G20 summit, which it is hosting, that [referred to](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/bharat-g20-invitation-fuels-rumours-india-may-change-name) the President of India, [Droupadi Murmu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droupadi_Murmu), as "p... | 2023-09-07T16:45:00Z | 2023-09-22T22:00:00Z | 2023-09-23T12:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18680 | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | The [United Auto Workers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Auto_Workers) (UAW) union represents [more than 400,000](https://uaw.org/about/) active members primarily [from](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Auto_Workers) "autos and auto parts, health care, casino gambling, and higher education."
On August 25, 20... | 2023-09-07T16:45:00Z | 2023-09-14T22:00:00Z | 2023-09-15T09:56:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18665 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | [Incidents of civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_... | 2023-09-15T16:43:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T04:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18611 | Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023? | Large language models have established a new state of the art in several areas of natural language processing. It is possible that they will also be widely accepted as the state of the art for machine translation (MT) within the year.
Every year, the MT community compares the quality of research systems at the Confere... | 2023-09-07T22:38:00Z | 2023-11-30T11:00:00Z | 2023-12-06T15:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18609 | Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023? | The Gabonese military has announced a [coup](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/8/30/gabon-crisis-live-news-soldiers-seize-power-cancel-election-result) in the wake of Ali Bongo's election victory this month.
Ali Bongo has been placed under house arrest following military leaders appearing on TV channel Gab... | 2023-09-08T19:22:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18607 | Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023? | On August 28, 2023, [Offshore Alliance](https://offshorealliance.org.au/) — an Australian workers union — [announced](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02DaBqp3BcYqVEijr9oDG42VipbFACwhE16F8KLThtDpAJKmwrLhhabcesJDARmJ1ol&id=100063786371409) that they had notified the oil company [Chevron](https://en... | 2023-08-31T16:00:00Z | 2023-09-24T22:00:00Z | 2023-09-21T23:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18606 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the "Disqualification Clause" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof." Given the events su... | 2023-08-31T19:44:00Z | 2024-11-04T18:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T17:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18548 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Ursula von der Leyen (DE/EPP) is the current President of the European Commission. The European Commission President is elected for a 5-year term by the European Parliament after European elections, meaning her term will end in 2024, coinciding with the 2024 European Parliament elections. The European Council proposes ... | 2023-09-01T19:32:00Z | 2024-12-31T11:00:00Z | 2024-07-17T13:50:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18535 | Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st? | House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer has [requested](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/) that the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) provide special ac... | 2023-08-26T21:51:00Z | 2023-08-30T17:00:00Z | 2023-09-01T05:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18531 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):
> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief muti... | 2023-08-24T01:00:00Z | 2024-02-23T20:00:00Z | 2024-02-24T15:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18530 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023? | According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):
> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief muti... | 2023-08-24T01:00:00Z | 2023-10-31T19:00:00Z | 2023-08-30T01:39:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-18525 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/). It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.
As of August 22, 2023, the top five model... | 2023-08-25T18:53:00Z | 2023-09-30T15:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18523 | Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023? | According to [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02656-9), "Researchers are racing to determine whether a highly mutated coronavirus variant that has popped up in three continents will be a global concern — or much ado about nothing."
On August 17th, the WHO labeled BA.2.86 a "Variant Under Monitoring,... | 2023-08-23T18:00:00Z | 2023-09-30T18:00:00Z | 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18437 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).
The August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii kil... | 2023-08-20T03:36:00Z | 2024-12-31T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-06T20:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-18390 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | On August 14, 2023, former President Donald Trump was [indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia#Indictment) by a grand jury in Georgia, alongside 18 other individuals. The state brought charges against Trump related to Trump's alleged participation in an attempt to overturn the sta... | 2023-08-18T02:04:00Z | 2024-05-31T18:00:00Z | 2024-06-01T15:47:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8356 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Since 1988, the former supertanker _Esso Japan_ has been moored in the Red Sea off the Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah as the floating oil storage and offloading vessel _Safer_. Prior to the outbreak of the latest Yemeni civil war, it was used by the state-owned Yemen Oil and Gas Corporation to store crude extracted from Ye... | 2021-10-28T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:00:00Z | 2023-08-11T15:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8341 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Recently, some commenters [have](https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1303352142866993154) [criticized](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/opinion/rbg-aclu-abortion.html)
[the ACLU](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/aclu-free-speech.html) for abandoning its historic stance in favor of free speech. On 2021-10-17, ... | 2021-12-02T06:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8334 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that [69% of full-time employed americans were working from home](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-... | 2021-10-21T10:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T16:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8160 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | See [the Wikipedia article on the 2019–2021 Persian Gulf crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis) for some context relevant to this question.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, a US-Iran war is defined as the US and Iran collectively suffering [at least 1000 bat... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2022-03-11T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T17:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8159 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)
* [[...] between Indian and Chinese armed forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-an... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2023-12-30T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8154 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-eu-by-2025/)
----
Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236... | 2021-11-10T06:00:00Z | 2025-01-20T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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