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meta-8153
|
Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/)
----
Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.
Speaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.
Basically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called [‘Green Propellants.’](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/wstf/testing_and_analysis/propellants_and_aerospace_fulids/green_propellants.html) Although the topic has been raised about [20 years ago](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Green_Propellant_for_Space_Propulsion), NASA's most important technical demonstration mission for green propellants [GPIM](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/index.html) was launched June 2019. A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that, the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns and no environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project life-cycleare considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine and its derivatives. Fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space Propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry.
Current Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020).
There were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.
***Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if the European Commission makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before January 1, 2025. It is not necessary for this proposal to receive a vote or become law to resolve this question.
|
2021-11-10T06:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T21:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8150
|
Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
According to [a Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/RL32572.pdf):
>"While there are several ways to distinguish between strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons, most analysts consider nonstrategic weapons to be shorter-range delivery systems with lower-yield warheads that might attack troops or facilities on the battlefield.
>[These weapons] have not been limited by past U.S.-Russian arms control agreements. Some analysts argue such limits would be of value, particularly in addressing Russia’s greater numbers of these types of weapons. Others have argued that the United States should expand its deployments of these weapons, in both Europe and Asia, to address new risks of war conducted under a nuclear shadow."
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) [estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have "nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273). It's therefore not clear precisely how many nonstrategic weapons there are, but it's clear that it's below 3000.
The [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) states](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273) that "Since the end of the Cold War, inventories have declined by an order of magnitude from 20,000–30,000 to about 2,500 today" (as of 2019). FAS estimate that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have "nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273).
How many such weapons will be stockpiled and deployed by various countries in future may also have effects on - and serve as a proxy for - proliferation risk, the chance of nuclear war occurring, and what interventions would most effectively reduce nuclear risk.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if the most recent estimates available on December 31, 2023 from the FAS, across various sources, indicate that there are >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons on December 31, 2023. (One way this could occur is if multiple ["Nuclear Notebook"](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/) columns on individual countries' nuclear forces each give estimates of those countries' numbers of nonstrategic nuclear warheads, with these estimates summing to >3,000.) This includes warheads that are deployed, are in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.
If FAS do not publish in 2023 estimates of the number of nonstrategic weapons possessed in total or at least by the US and Russia, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.
This question will resolve no later than January 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution
|
2021-10-07T14:00:00Z
|
2023-12-30T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T22:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8148
|
Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)
* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/)
----
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the armed forces of a NATO member (other than the US) and the Russian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.
For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.
At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.
The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both Russia and a non-US NATO member.
This question will resolve as **No** if the above criteria are *not* met for a clash between Russia and a non-US NATO member, or if the criteria *are* met for a clash between Russia and the US by 2024 (regardless of whether there is a qualifying clash between Russia and a NATO member before or after the US-Russia clash)
|
2021-10-07T14:00:00Z
|
2023-12-30T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8140
|
Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
As of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) India is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 200. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It includes warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.
Resolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
Fine Print: If they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously.
|
2021-10-07T14:00:00Z
|
2023-12-30T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8139
|
Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
As of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated China as having 350 nuclear warheads, making its stockpile the third largest in the world, though far smaller than that of Russia (6,257) and the US (5,550).
The Pentagon is [reported](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/01/china-planning-to-double-nuclear-arsenal-pentagon-says/) to estimate that China will double its arsenal during the 2020s.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on December 31, 2023 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.
Resolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
Fine Print: If FAS do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously.
|
2021-10-07T14:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8138
|
Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
As of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:
>"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice."
An increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice would probably increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict occurring in the first place. Finally, changes in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) estimated to be deployed across all states as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 2,500. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. This _excludes_ weapons that are (a) deployed but not on high alert, (b) in reserve/nondeployed, or (c) retired but still intact.
Resolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously
|
2021-10-07T14:00:00Z
|
2023-12-30T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8135
|
Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each if those states as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)).
- Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads
- US: 5,550 nuclear warheads
- China: 350 nuclear warheads
- France: 290 nuclear warheads
- UK: 225 nuclear warheads
- Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads
- India: 160 nuclear warheads
- Israel: 90 nuclear warheads
- North Korea: sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads ("The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower")
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if the FAS website shows, at any time between 2021-10-01 and 2023-12-31, that two or more states each have arsenals 25% higher than the estimates given above (i.e., 25% higher than FAS's estimates from May 2021). This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If a state that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gains an arsenal of at least one assembled nuclear weapon, that would be counted as a state increasing its stockpile size by at least 25%.
In the case of North Korea, the "size of their nuclear stockpile" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not.
Fine Print: If FAS publish no estimates during the whole of 2023, then this question will resolve ambiguously.
No attempt will be made to distinguish actual increases in arsenal sizes from increases in estimates due to FAS changing their estimation methods or learning new information about what was already true in May 2021. This is mostly for simplicity, but also partly because _some_ implications are the same whether (a) actual increases occur or (b) our current information is an underestimate.
|
2021-10-07T14:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8130
|
Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?
|
_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
Resolution Criteria: As of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads (whether or not those warheads have actually been assembled).
Resolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from [the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.
This question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.
**Related questions**
* [How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)
* [Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/).
Fine Print: For positive resolution, the mid-point of the estimate needs to be at or above 100. Statements such as "we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce approximately 100 warheads" or "we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 80-120 warheads" would count. Statements such as "we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 90-100 warheads" would not count.
|
2021-10-07T14:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-02-16T16:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8053
|
Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?
|
Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/).
Resolution Criteria: A "significant leadership disruption" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:
* resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),
* lost a confidence vote,
* lost an election,
* formally left office,
* died,
* been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
* fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
* been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days,
* been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days.
Resolution will be according to reliable published reports
|
2021-09-29T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2025-01-21T16:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-8009
|
Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?
|
Urbit is ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbit)):
> a decentralized personal server platform.[1] The platform seeks to deconstruct the client-server model in favour of a federated network of personal servers in a peer-to-peer network with a consistent digital identity.[2]
The aims are bold, so will it succeed? One way to quantify this is to think of whether the development is still ongoing in 2025. Urbit code changes [are public on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main).
Resolution Criteria: - If there are at least 3 commits in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-01, this question resolves positively.
- The commit must be made publicly on the codebase. Currently, [this is on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main). If it moves, the official codebase at the new location will be used.
- If the codebase becomes closed, admins judge whether development can be said to be ongoing, based on activity of the developer team elsewhere (e.g., are they actively promoting the project on [social media](https://twitter.com/urbit)? and [the project blog](https://urbit.org/blog)?)
|
2021-09-26T04:00:00Z
|
2021-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-03-02T00:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7921
|
Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?
|
Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.
Metaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.
This question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.
Resolution Criteria: Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance.
The set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.
If the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.
** Related questions **
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/
|
2021-09-16T23:00:00Z
|
2021-09-30T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-31T14:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7918
|
Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?
|
Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.
Metaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.
This question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.
Resolution Criteria: Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance.
The set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.
If the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.
** Related questions **
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/
|
2021-09-16T23:00:00Z
|
2021-09-30T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-31T14:40:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7917
|
Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?
|
** Related questions **
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/)
* [Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/)
----
Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.
Metaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.
This question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.
Resolution Criteria: Using the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance.
The set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve which close after September 16, 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
If the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously
|
2021-09-16T23:00:00Z
|
2021-09-30T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-31T14:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7914
|
Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?
|
The [Artemis Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_Accords) are an international space agreement led by the United States. Many allies and friends of the United States and India, such as the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Japan, and Australia, are members. The accords are still open for signature, and will remain so indefinitely. India has a [substantial space program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) which has been the subject of [multiple](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/) [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/) [on](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/) [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3041/will-chandrayaan-2-softly-land-on-the-moon-in-september-2019/) [website.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/657/will-india-land-on-the-moon-by-august-1-2018/) The United States and India have [substantial cooperation in space](https://in.usembassy.gov/bringing-u-s-india-space-cooperation-to-the-edge-of-the-universe-special-address-by-u-s-ambassador-to-india-richard-verma-at-the-orf-kalpana-chawl/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, NASA reports on [its website](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/republic-of-korea-joins-list-of-nations-to-sign-artemis-accords/) that India has signed the Artemis Accords
|
2022-02-22T08:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2023-06-23T19:27:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7850
|
Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?
|
[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):
> The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on February 1, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.
Fine Print: For reference, generally when the Senate is divided 50/50 the majority party is determined by the party of the Vice President. An illustrative example of how the majority party is determined is the 107th Congress, where the majority party switched 3 times between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2002 due to the VP's party changing, senators switching parties, and vacancies. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/107th_United_States_Congress)
|
2021-09-01T04:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T08:00:00Z
|
2025-02-01T15:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7849
|
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?
|
In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.
If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2024, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?
435* seats will be contested in 2024 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.
Fine Print: .* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.
.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.
|
2021-09-01T04:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T13:00:00Z
|
2024-11-25T18:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7839
|
Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?
|
Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs1yMqR3TCpuvmL.html), [Reddit thread with updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/scihub/comments/lofj0r/announcement_scihub_has_been_paused_no_new/)).
Resolution Criteria: If Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers to its database at any point in 2023, this question will resolve positively.
If another organisation widely reported to have involvement from Alexandra Elbakyan providing a similar service (as judged by Metaculus mods) to Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers, this should still resolve positively.
Otherwise it should resolve negatively
|
2021-09-01T22:00:00Z
|
2022-04-01T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-02T00:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7832
|
In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?
|
Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election [to count the votes of the electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act).
If there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.
In 2021, the returns from [Arizona](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/06/sen-ted-cruz-house-gop-republicans-object-to-arizona-electoral-votes-congress) and [Pennsylvania](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/pro-trump-mob-breaches-u-s-capitol/1-senator-and-80-house-members-object-to-pennsylvania-results-triggering-further-debate) were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.
This question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if enough states are debated under 3 US Code § 15 after the 2024 US Presidential Election such that some combination of these states' electoral votes being flipped to another candidate would change the outcome of the election
|
2021-09-25T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-07T01:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7829
|
In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?
|
Resolution Criteria: *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/)
----
In US presidential elections, it is required that states submit their results by the Safe Harbor deadline, which is the date 6 days prior to the meeting of the electoral college, when the president is officially elected.
In 2020, there were numerous efforts at the state level in a number of states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, to change the result from the result projected by major news organisations, often alleging that voter fraud had resulted in Joe Biden's victory. None of these were ultimately successful.
***In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any US state officially submit results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline that are different from the projected winner of that state?***
This question resolves positively if any US state (including DC and districts of states) officially submits results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline (currently, December 10th, 2024) that are different from the projected winner of that state according to at least 6 of the following news desks: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, AP, Reuters, and the NYT.
|
2021-09-02T04:00:00Z
|
2024-11-01T00:00:00Z
|
2024-12-24T18:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7828
|
Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?
|
In the 2020 US Presidential election, [major news desks called the election for Joe Biden](https://apnews.com/article/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a) in the week following the November election. Despite this, [a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election), such that betting markets still [placed nontrivial probabilities](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-betting-idUSKBN27S1P5) on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.
This question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if the US President inaugurated in 2025 is from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of the following news desks: ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News
|
2021-09-14T04:00:00Z
|
2024-11-01T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-21T16:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7784
|
Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?
|
The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.
Egypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.
There have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:
* [WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)
* [The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)
Resolution Criteria: A clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:
* A bombing attack on the dam
* Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam
Success of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out
|
2021-08-28T22:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T21:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7738
|
Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?
|
On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025. ["Flagging"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. Otherwise, it resolves negative
|
2021-08-18T07:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:00:00Z
|
2025-01-14T07:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7669
|
Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)
* [Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/)
----
[There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)
France is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):
```
2000: 6th
2004: 7th
2008: 10th
2012: 7th
2016: 7th
2020: 8th
```
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.
The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
1. Number of Gold Medals
2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
3. (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medal
|
2021-08-17T22:00:00Z
|
2024-07-25T23:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T16:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7664
|
Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?
|
The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).
The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?
*Related questions*
* [How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)
* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.
The medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
1. Number of Gold Medals
2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
3. (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
|
2021-08-17T22:00:00Z
|
2024-07-25T23:00:00Z
|
2024-08-11T16:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7598
|
Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?
|
[Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/)[of](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/) its conclusions. No one has taken any of the challenges yet.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positive if before 2025, Rootclaim or its representatives indicate (on its [website](rootclaim.com), social media, or elsewhere) that someone has taken up the Rootclaim challenge, and it is not retracted before that time
|
2021-08-13T07:00:00Z
|
2025-01-02T05:00:00Z
|
2023-11-26T14:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7597
|
Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?
|
[Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation), a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.
In September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.
In July 2021, [a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/us-prosecutors-charge-trevor-milton-founder-of-electric-carmaker-nikola-with-three-counts-of-fraud.html) according to [an indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1418421/download) (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available [here.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporation-ceo-trevor-milton-charged-securities-fraud-scheme)
Milton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
[Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)
Under terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.
[“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)
Milton is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if Trevor Milton is convicted of any federal charge of wire fraud or securities fraud relating to Nikola Corporation prior to January 1, 2024. State charges are not covered by this question.
If no convictions on said charges result before January 1 2024, this question resolves negatively
|
2021-08-15T07:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2022-10-14T19:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7575
|
Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?
|
As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification.
The "Pan-Blue" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent "Pan-Green" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. [The next presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positive if a candidate nominated by the DPP wins the presidential election, according to the Central Election Commission or other reputable media sources
|
2021-07-28T04:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T20:00:00Z
|
2024-01-13T14:52:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7468
|
Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?
|
[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula.
According to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an "independent socialist state." It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.
According to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.
As of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event that before January 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than January 1, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur
|
2021-06-30T04:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-14T07:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7455
|
Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?
|
[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:
* "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders."
* "In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack."
* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.
The only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if, by January 1, 2024, an accidental or unauthorised detonation, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon seized from a state actor.
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
Resolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins
|
2021-06-25T07:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:07:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7454
|
Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?
|
[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:
* "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders."
* "In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack."
* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.
The only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2024, an inadvertent detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
Resolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins
|
2021-06-25T07:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:05:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7451
|
Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: As discussed in [a previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4683/will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021/):
>"The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.
> [In 2020], tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.
> One unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that all border troops carry arms, a 1996 agreement between India and China states that: "With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control."
This question adapts that previous question to consider what might happen by 2024 and in any location (not necessarily just near the China-India border).
***Will there be a deadly clash between the Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the armed forces of India and the armed forces of China have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.
For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.
At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.
The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both China and India.
|
2021-06-25T07:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:55:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7450
|
Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
|
The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:
> "The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues."
However, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:
> "Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers."
Given these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the Chinese armed forces and the Russian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.
For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.
At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.
The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both China and Russia
|
2021-06-25T07:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:52:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7449
|
Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?
|
The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.
>"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)"
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the US armed forces and the Russian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.
For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.
At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.
The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both the US and Russia
|
2021-06-25T07:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:49:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7441
|
Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?
|
The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):
>In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”
>. . .
>On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.”
>. . .
>It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service prior to January 6, 2024. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from at least three credible media sources that women are required to register for the draft. To resolve positively, women must be required to register prior to January 6, 2024; the passage of a law that required women to register on or after January 6, 2024 would not count. Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving negatively
|
2021-06-30T04:00:00Z
|
2024-01-06T05:59:00Z
|
2024-01-07T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7412
|
Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?
|
According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):
> Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication.
EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.
[A 2005 report](https://web.archive.org/web/20121108204504/http://kyl.senate.gov/legis_center/subdocs/030805_pry.pdf) also claims analysts in other states see nuclear EMP attacks as a legitimate use of nuclear weapons or are concerned that their states may be targeted by such attacks.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one High-Energy Magnetic Pulse attack occurs before January 1, 2024.
For this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:
* a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or
* a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation
HEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.
Positive resolution requires a HEMP attack to be reported by at least three major media outlets within 30 days of the attack and before January 1st, 2024
|
2021-06-25T07:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:51:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7407
|
Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?
|
[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:
* "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders."
* "In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack."
* In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.
The only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by 2024, a deliberate detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
Resolution information will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN, and will be interpreted under Metaculus' best judgement.
|
2021-06-25T07:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T21:51:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7404
|
Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?
|
On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a non-test nuclear detonation occurs and causes at least one fatality before January 1, 2024. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation of a state or non-state nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
This question will resolve according to all credible media reports or from official government or UN reports.
Fine Print: Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. In the case of ambiguity, Metaculus has sole discretion over this question's resolution.
|
2021-06-22T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:38:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7403
|
Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
|
Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump.
Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the US armed forces and the Chinese armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.
For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.
At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.
The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both the US and China
|
2021-06-22T15:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T22:35:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7382
|
Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?
|
"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living." ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp))
The question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy ("Core CPI") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.
The "Core CPI" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).
Resolution Criteria: We will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)) for resolution.
This question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included.
This question resolves negatively if otherwise.
Fine Print: [EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-20: Clarified that we'll use not-seasonally-adjusted figures and that the clock starts in August 2021.
|
2021-08-23T07:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00Z
|
2022-02-10T18:28:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7227
|
Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?
|
There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”
Recently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”
Against the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan.
These developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between June 1, 2021 and December 31, 2023, either of the following occur:
- There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.
- There are at least three credible news reports that an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China.
In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in (a) an exchange of weapon fire or detonations and/or (b) one or more battle-related deaths or injuries. Notice that, as defined, an armed conflict need not result in death or injury, unless it involves hand-to-hand combat
|
2021-06-15T07:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7215
|
Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?
|
Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.
Closed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the difference in price between the fund and the underlying commodity.
Since retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations superimposed, I can't think of any plausible consumer-protection argument for the SEC to deny the right to convert it to an ETF, which wouldn't also be a fully generic argument against all ETFs (e.g., assuming that the market makers' profits come at the expense of the users)
Resolution Criteria: An ETF of equities of companies that own bitcoin, like Microstrategy, Square, and Coinbase, would not be sufficient for a yes resolution. Only an ETF that puts >95% of its NAV into bitcoin would count
|
2021-05-25T07:00:00Z
|
2025-01-20T08:01:00Z
|
2024-01-10T21:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7154
|
Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?
|
Related Question on Metaculus:
* [How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)
----
President Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.
As for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's ["$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?" (May 1, 2021)](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/student-loan-forgiveness-may-be-on-the-way-what-to-do-in-the-meantime-.html) writes:
> If Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.
>
> A clearer picture may soon emerge.
>
> “If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.
> If the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.
>
> That’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.
>
> The next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.
Expert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn ([*Time*, April 29, 2021](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/)):
> “A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”
>
> “I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”
>
> “I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of FutureFuel.io.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2024, a presidential executive order is signed or a Congressional bill is signed into law (or other legal means are used) that cancels at least $10,000 of US federal student loan debt for each person, and there is credible evidence that at least one student actually has received the promised debt cancellation from the bill or executive order before January 1, 2024.
There may be restrictions on who is eligible for loan forgiveness of $10,000, but these restrictions must not withhold debt cancellation from more than 10% of American citizens at least 21 years old with at least $1,000 of federal student debt. If a borrower has less than $10,000 of debt, they will be considered to have "recieved $10,000 of loan forgiveness" if their entire debt amount (under $10,000) is forgiven.
If no such loan forgiveness occurs, for example if the bill or executive order is declared unconstitutional before any student receives debt forgiveness, this question will resolve as **No**.
*See edit history under the fine print*
Fine Print: August 25, 2022 - casens - made a clarification that individuals who have less than 10k of student debt will be considered to have recieved the full forgiveness amount if their entire debt is forgiven.
|
2021-05-07T06:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-7053
|
Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?
|
Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.
According to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:
>”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”
The [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if [FAOSTAT data](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC) indicates that Brazil produces the largest quantity of soybeans worldwide, by weight, in the year 2022.
If the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ceases the report the relevant data, other credible global agriculture data sources may be considered
|
2021-04-22T15:00:00Z
|
2022-04-22T22:56:00Z
|
2024-01-23T15:27:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6944
|
In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?
|
Recent [controversy over state election laws](https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-new-election-law-means-for-voters-and-officials-explainer-2021-3) has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator [recently suggested](https://web.archive.org/web/20210329024002/https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1376161115244204037):
>"If a Democrat wins a GOP-controlled swing state in 2024 … there’s a very good chance the victory isn’t certified"
Election certification is the process in which states [confirm the election results](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/13/how-election-certification-works-when-will-2020-be-certified/) and declare them to be the official results. Typically states set their own deadlines for election certification, which in 2020 [ranged from November 5th to December 8th for the presidential contest](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020) (several states appear to have no deadline), but federal law provides a ["safe harbor" deadline](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/942288226/bidens-victory-cemented-as-states-reach-deadline-for-certifying-vote-tallies) by which states must formally certify their election results in order for the certified results to be federally recognized as governing the outcome. The "safe harbor" deadline is set by [3 U.S. Code § 5](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/5) and [3 U.S. Code § 7](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/7) which sets the safe harbor deadline as six days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December of the election year.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve positively if any state (or DC) does not certify their results by the "safe harbor" deadline. The "safe harbor" deadline for the 2024 presidential election will be December 10th
|
2021-04-16T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-02T03:59:00Z
|
2025-01-21T16:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6889
|
Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?
|
[Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.
However, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a slam in 2017, although she's reached 4 slam finals since then.
As part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked "Last year, each of you said you expected Serena to win another major. Do you want to change your answer?". The answer given was "Probably not" (ie probably she doesn't win another one).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positive if Serena Williams wins a grand slam after 2021-04-01.
This question resolve negative if Serena Williams stops playing Tennis before winning another grand slam
|
2021-04-07T04:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2024-09-03T16:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6730
|
Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?
|
Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.
Commodity.com provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)
Dogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html).
One of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165).
In 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”
Further reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)
Resolution Criteria: In order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.
[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin
|
2021-04-01T07:00:00Z
|
2023-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-04T01:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6660
|
Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?
|
Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.
The paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).
Resolution Criteria: An official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on gov.uk
A pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.
The zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:
- Number of floors
- Plot us
|
2021-02-25T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:01:00Z
|
2023-10-26T13:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6597
|
Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?
|
Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.
Resolution Criteria: A report from a reputable news source that Amazon.com (or a local counterparts in any country, such as Amazon.fr, Amazon.nl, etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product
|
2021-03-04T23:00:00Z
|
2021-12-01T18:55:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5462
|
Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
|
The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.
Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.
Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.
On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a "CANZUK" agreement, getting "tough on China", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.
In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.
Fine Print: Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.
Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.
|
2020-10-20T23:00:00Z
|
2021-09-18T23:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5431
|
Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?
|
*This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.*
European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of "enriched" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.
In July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the "[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project "[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.
[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.
* Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship.
* In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020.
* In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there.
* In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate.
* The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030.
* In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)).
* France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients).
* The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used.
In September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that "the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively.
In the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement
|
2020-10-15T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-01T06:58:00Z
|
2024-11-01T21:18:55Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5427
|
Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?
|
The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.
Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:
* [Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/);
* [The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html).
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:
* An explicit tax on childlessness.
* A tax levied on each person except those with children.
For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.
The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.
Fine Print: If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened.
|
2020-10-18T22:00:00Z
|
2021-03-16T21:00:00Z
|
2024-03-15T23:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5380
|
Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?
|
Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):
>Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.
>The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.
>[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”
>[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.
>[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.
Resolution Criteria: - If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively.
- If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date.
- Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence.
- Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution.
- If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively
|
2021-01-14T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2021-06-23T20:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5350
|
Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?
|
Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.
He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)
However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election
Resolution Criteria: Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).
Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023
|
2020-10-29T07:00:00Z
|
2021-05-31T23:00:00Z
|
2023-05-29T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5319
|
Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
|
Resolution Criteria: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
***Will the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?***
This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:
- That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.
And:
- That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.
In the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:
> At present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19
[fine-print]
The question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.
The consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators.
The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.
[/fine-print]
|
2020-10-02T22:00:00Z
|
2021-06-30T23:00:00Z
|
2023-07-10T04:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5318
|
Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
|
Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:
- That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.
And:
- That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.
The CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)
> The role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.
Fine Print: The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.
|
2020-10-02T22:00:00Z
|
2021-06-30T23:00:00Z
|
2023-07-10T04:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5317
|
Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
|
Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:
- That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.
And:
- That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.
The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:
> There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.
Fine Print: The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.
|
2020-10-02T22:00:00Z
|
2021-06-30T23:00:00Z
|
2023-07-10T04:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5316
|
Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?
|
Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.
Fine Print: The BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.
"1st line", and "Plus" count as a recommendation. "Consider" does not.
The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.
|
2020-10-02T22:00:00Z
|
2021-07-01T20:16:00Z
|
2023-07-10T04:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5217
|
Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?
|
Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.
Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).
Resolution Criteria: - If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.
- If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question
|
2020-09-15T22:00:00Z
|
2023-06-04T22:00:00Z
|
2022-11-02T01:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5201
|
Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)
----
Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).
>Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.
>The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.
>Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kamala Harris is the US President for at least 30 consecutive days at any point between January 20, 2021 to January 20, 2025. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution
|
2020-09-11T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-21T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-21T16:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5174
|
If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?
|
In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Joe Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6% by January 1, 2025. If Biden is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%, this question will resolve as **No**.
If Biden is not elected President in 2020, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**
|
2020-09-27T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T01:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5173
|
Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
|
OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question ["When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if by January 1, 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.
Fine Print: The code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.
This question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of "Transformer derived":
Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a "transformer" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,
> Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?
After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer "Yes".
|
2020-09-03T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T08:12:00Z
|
2025-01-26T13:43:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5170
|
Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).
***Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas before January 1, 2025. If the project is declared abandoned, canceled, or destroyed, this question will resolve as **No**.
This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia during the period between October 2020 to December 2024.
|
2020-10-15T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-08T07:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5105
|
Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?
|
Resolution Criteria: As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):
>Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.
>The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others "orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors".
>The indictment claims the "scheme" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.
[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).
The official charges are as follows:
>1. BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”
>2. Those representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.
**Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?**
- The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely).
- Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question.
|
2020-08-23T22:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2021-01-20T00:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4952
|
Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):
>Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.
So the question is: **Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?**
- It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers.
|
2020-08-13T13:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T14:00:00Z
|
2025-01-02T14:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4934
|
Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?
|
Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.
After that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON on January 1, 2025, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month on January 1, 2025. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively
|
2020-08-12T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T18:00:00Z
|
2025-01-22T16:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4826
|
Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?
|
Resolution Criteria: Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020.
The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.
More details can be found here:
- https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal
Markus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.
This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:
- Markus Braun
- Jan Marsalek
- Alexander von Knoop
- Susanne Steidl
- Jan Marsalek
- Oliver Bellenhaus
The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.
Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment
|
2020-11-23T23:00:00Z
|
2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4763
|
Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)
According to the BBC:
>It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.
>The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.
>The virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.
>They found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.
>Current flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.
The virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).
[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that "G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented."
This question asks: **Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?**
For a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.
|
2020-07-08T07:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-17T01:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4742
|
Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: [New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) "Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.
**Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?**
This question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases).
The relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.
Furthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:
- The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity
- A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati.
Hence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.
|
2020-07-07T07:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T04:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4630
|
Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?
|
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if *all of the following* occur:
- Metaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question
- For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries
- The payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash)
- An individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024
If Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
|
2020-06-11T22:00:00Z
|
2021-06-09T11:36:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4586
|
If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).
This sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.
Joe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.
***If Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?***
Resolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.
|
2020-06-12T22:00:00Z
|
2024-01-02T00:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4433
|
If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.
The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.
In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).
**If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?**
Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.
|
2020-05-31T09:59:00Z
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-17T01:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6478
|
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
|
*What would a Trump administration look like? A Harris administration? What would be dramatically different, and what would be the same? Learn more in the [2024 Electoral Consequences series](https://www.metaculus.com/project/us-conditionals/).*
Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by Congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate receives more than 269 votes.
The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in Congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbency advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) Party receives the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)) in the [2024 US Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election). It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the votes, or when Congress selects the President in the case a candidate does not receive a majority.
|
2021-02-08T05:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T13:00:00Z
|
2025-01-21T16:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6475
|
Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?
|
The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood.
The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is "in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun."
The website further states that the project team "expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021."
Resolution Criteria: The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively
|
2021-02-08T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2025-01-14T08:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6456
|
Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?
|
High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”.
The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.
Resolution Criteria: This will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).
|
2021-02-12T23:00:00Z
|
2024-11-01T06:59:00Z
|
2025-01-09T00:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6438
|
By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?
|
When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960.
Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.
Fine Print: If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative.
|
2021-02-11T23:00:00Z
|
2023-11-16T04:59:00Z
|
2023-04-25T10:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6427
|
Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?
|
GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire.
Andrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station.
Despite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator.
The market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/).
Sky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to "reach" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing.
Resolution Criteria: GB News will be deemed to be broadcasting if a TV station with the brand of "GB News" airs more than six hours of content per day over the Freeview network beyond January 1 2025.
The ownership of the channel should not be deemed relevant. If the brand changes, it will deemed to exist - so long as the station continues to broadcast and so long as its name, as listed on the Freeview electronic programme guide (EPG), still has the words "GB News" in the channel title.
The authoritative version of the EPG will be the standard text-only version of the EPG accessible to British Freeview viewers by pressing the programme guide button. There is an [online version](https://www.freeview.co.uk/tv-guide) - which is the same, but it currently uses graphics in place of channel names, which might create ambiguity on the naming question
|
2021-05-20T22:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2025-01-17T17:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6423
|
Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?
|
Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:
* Donald Trump
* Melania Trump
* Donald Trump Jr.
* Ivanka Trump
* Eric Trump
* Tiffany Trump
* Barron Trump
* Jared Kushne
|
2021-02-20T08:00:00Z
|
2022-01-27T18:44:00Z
|
2024-11-03T04:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6421
|
Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?
|
Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).
Resolution Criteria: This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date
|
2021-01-29T23:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T18:33:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6369
|
Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?
|
Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country.
The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.
The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a referendum held in Scotland regarding Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom, and this referendum is held before May 3, 2024. This referendum may be an "advisory" referendum; that is, it is not necessary for the referendum to have any legally binding effect.
It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government
|
2021-02-18T08:00:00Z
|
2024-05-02T21:00:00Z
|
2024-05-03T23:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6352
|
Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)
- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)
----
[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:
> - when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),
> - to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),
> - or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).
The Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).
Recent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US federal government invokes the Insurrection Act at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025. No additional criteria are necessary for this question to resolve positively.
Fine Print: If positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.
|
2021-01-23T07:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T06:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T04:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6331
|
Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?
|
Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if former Vice President Michael R. Pence declares his candidacy for the 2024 election. Any announcement between January 1, 2021 to election day 2024 will be sufficient; Pence may seek the Republican nomination, run independently, or seek the nomination of any other party.
Fine Print: In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed "FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election.
|
2021-01-19T23:00:00Z
|
2024-11-04T13:59:00Z
|
2023-06-05T15:49:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6330
|
Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?
|
With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html).
There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump declares his candidacy for the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Fine Print: Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed "FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election.
|
2021-02-14T08:00:00Z
|
2024-11-01T21:00:00Z
|
2022-11-16T02:25:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6322
|
Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?
|
[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.
Resolution Criteria: - If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively.
- This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024.
- Platforms must be open to the public
|
2021-01-28T23:00:00Z
|
2022-01-09T23:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T04:59:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6313
|
Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?
|
Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if on January 20, 2025, at noon EST, there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources
|
2021-01-17T08:00:00Z
|
2025-01-20T08:00:00Z
|
2025-01-21T16:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6312
|
Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
|
There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).
Resolution Criteria: Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President
|
2021-02-11T05:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-01-01T05:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6306
|
Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
|
Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).
The most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)
Resolution Criteria: This prediction resolves ***positive*** if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and ***negative*** if one does not
|
2021-02-19T08:00:00Z
|
2024-11-04T16:00:00Z
|
2024-11-25T18:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6218
|
Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?
|
Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district.
Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions.
There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if legislation making some portion of Washington, DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question will resolve as **No** if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state
|
2021-01-13T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-20T05:00:00Z
|
2025-01-23T02:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6108
|
Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?
|
In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.
On 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:
- Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution)
- 2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution)
- Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution
|
2021-01-06T05:00:00Z
|
2023-07-01T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T02:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6092
|
Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?
|
The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy ("Core CPI") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.
The "Core CPI" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves "yes" if the 12-month "Core CPI" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.
This question resolves "no" if the 12-month "Core CPI" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023
|
2021-02-13T08:00:00Z
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00Z
|
2021-06-13T11:37:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6049
|
Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
|
Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.
Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.
Resolution Criteria: This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press
|
2020-12-29T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-09T00:00:00Z
|
2024-12-12T12:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6021
|
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?
|
Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#).
Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in "[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)", the evaluation criteria are described in "[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)".
Resolution Criteria: Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.
Fine Print: This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
|
2020-12-30T00:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2022-11-22T18:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-6001
|
How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?
|
In an interesting case study of the dangers of making an ambiguous bet, [on Longbets](https://longbets.org/9/) Martin Rees bet Steven Pinker that,
> A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.
Given the ambiguity of what "bioerror" means, some have speculated in the comment section that the [current coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) should qualify. Rees had specified that,
> By "bioerror", I mean something which has the same effect as a terror attack, but rises from inadvertance rather than evil intent.
and Longbets clarified,
> Casualties will be defined by WHO, CDC, or BPHS, whoever has the highest numbers. Casualties should ideally include "victims requiring hospitalization" and not include indirect deaths caused by the pathogen, although ultimately Long Now will rely on the criteria set by the above organizations for determining casualties to adjudicate this bet.
Pinker was worried about the resolution criteria,
> We'd need definitions of "casualty" (death, permanent disability, or just infection?), "bioterror" (state-sponsored? apolitical vengeance/spree killing?) and "bioerror" (I assume a mere lack of preparedness doesn't count). But that shouldn't be too hard.
Unfortunately, it's not clear that Pinker's worries were addressed. The procedure for resolving bets is outlined [here](https://longbets.org/procedure/).
Resolution Criteria: If Longbets declares Martin Rees the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If Steven Pinker is resolved the winner of the bet, then this question resolves negatively. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguously
|
2020-12-21T08:00:00Z
|
2020-12-31T08:00:00Z
|
2025-01-03T06:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5882
|
Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?
|
From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),
> Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was "the most secure in American history." Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was "no evidence of widespread fraud" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.
Resolution Criteria: For the purpose of this question, the "losing party" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,
* The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of "fraudulent" or "rigged", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if thesaurus.com lists "fraud", "fraudulent", or "rigged" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.
* The losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.
* Fewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.
* A survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was "probably" or "definitely" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).
Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
Fine Print: For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have "projected" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of "projected" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection.
|
2020-12-10T08:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T08:00:00Z
|
2024-11-08T18:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-5715
|
Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?
|
Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).
Jeff McAulay argued,
> Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.
Stephen Zoepf countered,
> I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.
Resolution Criteria: If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question will resolve as **Yes**. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question will resolve as **No**
|
2020-11-16T08:00:00Z
|
2024-05-27T07:00:00Z
|
2025-02-18T21:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-2797
|
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?
|
*Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?
](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/)
----
Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if no nuclear weapon is detonated before January 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:
- Deliberate nuclear attack.
- Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)
- Accidental detonation of a weapon.
- Nuclear terrorism.
For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) *do not* trigger negative resolution
|
2019-06-21T22:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4127
|
Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?
|
Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)
The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)
Resolution Criteria: Resolves **Yes** if one of these individuals is the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024:
- Donald Trump
- Donald Trump Jr.
- Eric Trump
- Ivanka Trump
- Tiffany Trump
- Melania Trump
- Barron Trump
|
2020-05-09T10:00:00Z
|
2024-05-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-07-15T22:20:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-4061
|
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
|
In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled ["The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good."](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.
Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following companies/organizations ratifies a Windfall Clause before January 1, 2025:
* Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X)
* Alibaba
* Amazon
* Apple
* Baidu
* Facebook
* Microsoft
* OpenAI
* Tesla
For the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)
|
2020-05-03T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2025-02-01T16:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-3821
|
Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.
Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900.
***Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time between March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2025, according to credible press reports, or a major cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform.
A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).
|
2020-03-14T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
|
2025-01-05T05:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-3820
|
Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?
|
[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.
Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900.
***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before January 1, 2025, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation.
|
2020-03-12T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-05T02:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-3715
|
Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?
|
Resolution Criteria: The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.
This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.
***Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?***
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:
- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service))
- The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit))
- [World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/)
- [The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/)
- The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html)
- [Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html)
- [The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/)
- [Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england)
- [The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx)
- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=)
- [The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html)
In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.
The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.
This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).
|
2020-02-25T09:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:00:00Z
|
2025-01-11T20:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
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