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meta-8153 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/)
----
Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details... | 2021-11-10T06:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T21:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8150 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
According to [a Congressional Research Servic... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2023-12-30T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T22:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8148 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)
* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/744... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2023-12-30T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8140 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
As of May 2021, [the Federation of American... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2023-12-30T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8139 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
As of May 2021, [the Federation of American S... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8138 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
As of May 2021, [the Federation of American... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2023-12-30T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8135 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapon... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8130 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | _This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._
Resolution Criteria: As of September 28, 2021... | 2021-10-07T14:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-02-16T16:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8053 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-wa... | 2021-09-29T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-8009 | Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025? | Urbit is ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbit)):
> a decentralized personal server platform.[1] The platform seeks to deconstruct the client-server model in favour of a federated network of personal servers in a peer-to-peer network with a consistent digital identity.[2]
The aims are bold, so will it succ... | 2021-09-26T04:00:00Z | 2021-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-03-02T00:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7921 | Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions? | Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.
Metaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 ques... | 2021-09-16T23:00:00Z | 2021-09-30T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-31T14:40:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7918 | Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions? | Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.
Metaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or... | 2021-09-16T23:00:00Z | 2021-09-30T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-31T14:40:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7917 | Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions? | ** Related questions **
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/)
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/)
* [Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/... | 2021-09-16T23:00:00Z | 2021-09-30T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-31T14:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7914 | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | The [Artemis Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_Accords) are an international space agreement led by the United States. Many allies and friends of the United States and India, such as the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Japan, and Australia, are members. The accords are still open for signature, and will re... | 2022-02-22T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-06-23T19:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7850 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):
> The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on February 1, 2025, th... | 2021-09-01T04:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T08:00:00Z | 2025-02-01T15:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7849 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricti... | 2021-09-01T04:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T13:00:00Z | 2024-11-25T18:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7839 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs... | 2021-09-01T22:00:00Z | 2022-04-01T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-02T00:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7832 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election [to count the votes of the electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act).
If there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. ... | 2021-09-25T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-07T01:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7829 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Resolution Criteria: *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/)
----
In US presidential elections, it is required that states submit their results... | 2021-09-02T04:00:00Z | 2024-11-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-12-24T18:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7828 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | In the 2020 US Presidential election, [major news desks called the election for Joe Biden](https://apnews.com/article/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a) in the week following the November election. Despite this, [a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn... | 2021-09-14T04:00:00Z | 2024-11-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7784 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.
Egypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are conc... | 2021-08-28T22:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T21:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7738 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](ht... | 2021-08-18T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-14T07:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7669 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)
* [Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/)
----... | 2021-08-17T22:00:00Z | 2024-07-25T23:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T16:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7664 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat spor... | 2021-08-17T22:00:00Z | 2024-07-25T23:00:00Z | 2024-08-11T16:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7598 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | [Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootcla... | 2021-08-13T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T05:00:00Z | 2023-11-26T14:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7597 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | [Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ni... | 2021-08-15T07:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2022-10-14T19:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7575 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification.
The "Pan-Blue"... | 2021-07-28T04:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T20:00:00Z | 2024-01-13T14:52:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7468 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | [North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula.
According to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an "independent socialist state." It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as... | 2021-06-30T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-14T07:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7455 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | [Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:
* "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear wea... | 2021-06-25T07:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:07:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7454 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | [Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:
* "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear wea... | 2021-06-25T07:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:05:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7451 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Resolution Criteria: As discussed in [a previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4683/will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021/):
>"The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-In... | 2021-06-25T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:55:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7450 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:
> "The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to ... | 2021-06-25T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:52:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7449 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.
>"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democ... | 2021-06-25T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:49:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7441 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](... | 2021-06-30T04:00:00Z | 2024-01-06T05:59:00Z | 2024-01-07T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7412 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):
> Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack ca... | 2021-06-25T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:51:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7407 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | [Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:
* "In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear wea... | 2021-06-25T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T21:51:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7404 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a non-test nuclear det... | 2021-06-22T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:38:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7403 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, t... | 2021-06-22T15:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T22:35:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7382 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are use... | 2021-08-23T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T20:59:00Z | 2022-02-10T18:28:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7227 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflic... | 2021-06-15T07:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7215 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.
Closed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the di... | 2021-05-25T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-20T08:01:00Z | 2024-01-10T21:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-7154 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Related Question on Metaculus:
* [How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)
----
President Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan de... | 2021-05-07T06:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-7053 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, a... | 2021-04-22T15:00:00Z | 2022-04-22T22:56:00Z | 2024-01-23T15:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6944 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Recent [controversy over state election laws](https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-new-election-law-means-for-voters-and-officials-explainer-2021-3) has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One comm... | 2021-04-16T22:00:00Z | 2024-11-02T03:59:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6889 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | [Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.
However, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a... | 2021-04-07T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-09-03T16:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6730 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put o... | 2021-04-01T07:00:00Z | 2023-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-04T01:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6660 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.
The paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).
Resolution Criteria: An official gove... | 2021-02-25T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:01:00Z | 2023-10-26T13:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6597 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.
Resolution Criteria: A report from a reputable news source tha... | 2021-03-04T23:00:00Z | 2021-12-01T18:55:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5462 | Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? | The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elect... | 2020-10-20T23:00:00Z | 2021-09-18T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5431 | Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024? | *This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.*
European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of "enriched" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-f... | 2020-10-15T22:00:00Z | 2024-11-01T06:58:00Z | 2024-11-01T21:18:55Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5427 | Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? | The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.
Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:
* [Russia may introduce tax on ch... | 2020-10-18T22:00:00Z | 2021-03-16T21:00:00Z | 2024-03-15T23:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5380 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):
>Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be comin... | 2021-01-14T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2021-06-23T20:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5350 | Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? | Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.
He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_ele... | 2020-10-29T07:00:00Z | 2021-05-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-05-29T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-5319 | Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | Resolution Criteria: Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and... | 2020-10-02T22:00:00Z | 2021-06-30T23:00:00Z | 2023-07-10T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5318 | Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/)... | 2020-10-02T22:00:00Z | 2021-06-30T23:00:00Z | 2023-07-10T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5317 | Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/)... | 2020-10-02T22:00:00Z | 2021-06-30T23:00:00Z | 2023-07-10T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5316 | Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic? | Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/)... | 2020-10-02T22:00:00Z | 2021-07-01T20:16:00Z | 2023-07-10T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5217 | Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? | Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previousl... | 2020-09-15T22:00:00Z | 2023-06-04T22:00:00Z | 2022-11-02T01:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5201 | Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-fi... | 2020-09-11T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5174 | If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? | In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Joe Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax brack... | 2020-09-27T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T01:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5173 | Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? | OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writ... | 2020-09-03T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T08:12:00Z | 2025-01-26T13:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5170 | Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted as... | 2020-10-15T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T07:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5105 | Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud? | Resolution Criteria: As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):
>Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thu... | 2020-08-23T22:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2021-01-20T00:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-4952 | Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unres... | 2020-08-13T13:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T14:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T14:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-4934 | Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful? | Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.
After that... | 2020-08-12T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T18:00:00Z | 2025-01-22T16:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-4826 | Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse? | Resolution Criteria: Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020.
The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.
More details can be found here:
- https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wir... | 2020-11-23T23:00:00Z | 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-4763 | Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)
According to the BBC:
>It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.
>The researchers are concern... | 2020-07-08T07:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-17T01:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-4742 | Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: [New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nyti... | 2020-07-07T07:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T04:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-4630 | Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if *all of the following* occur:
- Metaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and se... | 2020-06-11T22:00:00Z | 2021-06-09T11:36:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-4586 | If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024? | Resolution Criteria: Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ra... | 2020-06-12T22:00:00Z | 2024-01-02T00:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-4433 | If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024? | Resolution Criteria: The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.
The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obam... | 2020-05-31T09:59:00Z | 2024-12-31T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-17T01:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6478 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | *What would a Trump administration look like? A Harris administration? What would be dramatically different, and what would be the same? Learn more in the [2024 Electoral Consequences series](https://www.metaculus.com/project/us-conditionals/).*
Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique syste... | 2021-02-08T05:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T13:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6475 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood.
The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the proj... | 2021-02-08T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2025-01-14T08:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6456 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or c... | 2021-02-12T23:00:00Z | 2024-11-01T06:59:00Z | 2025-01-09T00:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6438 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960.
Of the 45 indiv... | 2021-02-11T23:00:00Z | 2023-11-16T04:59:00Z | 2023-04-25T10:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6427 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire.
Andrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show... | 2021-05-20T22:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2025-01-17T17:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6423 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:
* Donald Trump
* Melania Trump
* Donald Trump Jr.
* Ivanka Trump
* Eric Trump
* Tiffany... | 2021-02-20T08:00:00Z | 2022-01-27T18:44:00Z | 2024-11-03T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6421 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).
Resolution Criteria: This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has ra... | 2021-01-29T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T18:33:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6369 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country.
The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotia... | 2021-02-18T08:00:00Z | 2024-05-02T21:00:00Z | 2024-05-03T23:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6352 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)
- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031... | 2021-01-23T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T06:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T04:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6331 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.
Resolution Criteria... | 2021-01-19T23:00:00Z | 2024-11-04T13:59:00Z | 2023-06-05T15:49:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6330 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020... | 2021-02-14T08:00:00Z | 2024-11-01T21:00:00Z | 2022-11-16T02:25:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6322 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | [With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there i... | 2021-01-28T23:00:00Z | 2022-01-09T23:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T04:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6313 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel A... | 2021-01-17T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-20T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6312 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024... | 2021-02-11T05:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6306 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a pr... | 2021-02-19T08:00:00Z | 2024-11-04T16:00:00Z | 2024-11-25T18:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6218 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district.
Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district... | 2021-01-13T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-20T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-23T02:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6108 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows cou... | 2021-01-06T05:00:00Z | 2023-07-01T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-6092 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy ("Core CPI") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.
The "Core CPI" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves "yes" if the 12-mo... | 2021-02-13T08:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:59:00Z | 2021-06-13T11:37:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6049 | Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? | Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.
Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, ... | 2020-12-29T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-09T00:00:00Z | 2024-12-12T12:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6021 | Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025? | Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#).
Animal Charity Evaluators is a... | 2020-12-30T00:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2022-11-22T18:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-6001 | How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve? | In an interesting case study of the dangers of making an ambiguous bet, [on Longbets](https://longbets.org/9/) Martin Rees bet Steven Pinker that,
> A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.
Given the ambiguity of what ... | 2020-12-21T08:00:00Z | 2020-12-31T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-03T06:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5882 | Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party? | From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),
> Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the ... | 2020-12-10T08:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T08:00:00Z | 2024-11-08T18:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-5715 | Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024? | Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).
Jeff McAulay argued,
> Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demons... | 2020-11-16T08:00:00Z | 2024-05-27T07:00:00Z | 2025-02-18T21:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-2797 | Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024? | *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?
](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/)
----
Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a con... | 2019-06-21T22:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-4127 | Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024? | Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [20... | 2020-05-09T10:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-07-15T22:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-4061 | Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025? | In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled ["The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good."](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceed... | 2020-05-03T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2025-02-01T16:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3821 | Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for int... | 2020-03-14T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T05:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3820 | Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? | [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The pri... | 2020-03-12T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-05T02:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-3715 | Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? | Resolution Criteria: The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially unde... | 2020-02-25T09:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-11T20:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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