id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-3689 | Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race? | Resolution Criteria: [Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race af... | 2020-02-21T23:00:00Z | 2021-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-11-06T16:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3682 | Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory? | The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a p... | 2020-02-19T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T23:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3631 | Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.
This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increa... | 2020-02-11T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T07:59:00Z | 2025-01-05T01:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3606 | Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? | Resolution Criteria: Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabet... | 2020-02-11T08:00:00Z | 2024-06-03T04:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3605 | Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? | Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have als... | 2020-03-05T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-20T05:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3484 | Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015? | Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank,... | 2020-01-14T08:00:00Z | 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-10-03T23:16:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-3469 | Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.
This question resolves positively if *any* mili... | 2020-01-14T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T07:59:00Z | 2025-01-04T01:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3460 | Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.i... | 2020-01-12T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T07:59:00Z | 2025-01-01T05:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-3439 | Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election? | Resolution Criteria: [The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics through... | 2019-12-30T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-08T07:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3528 | Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024? | Resolution Criteria: Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/... | 2020-01-29T00:00:00Z | 2024-05-31T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-05T01:23:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3433 | Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? | Resolution Criteria: Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into de... | 2019-12-26T23:00:00Z | 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3431 | Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023? | Resolution Criteria: One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar.
The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running... | 2019-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2023-07-14T23:00:00Z | 2023-07-15T12:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-3429 | Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024? | Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar rad... | 2019-12-23T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T02:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3409 | Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? | Resolution Criteria: A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe d... | 2019-12-16T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-30T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T02:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3241 | Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025? | Resolution Criteria: The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that
1. is in orbit around the Sun,
2. is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and,
3. has "cleared the neighborhood" around its orbit.
A debate h... | 2019-12-27T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T06:01:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3238 | Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025? | The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO cons... | 2019-10-19T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T02:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-3159 | Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025? | Resolution Criteria: WeWork (officially "The We Company") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial ... | 2019-10-04T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-11-07T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-3118 | Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.
Resolves pos... | 2019-09-28T23:00:00Z | 2020-12-30T14:00:00Z | 2025-01-03T16:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3117 | Will a new land speed record be set by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C ("Special Vehicles") flying start regulations... | 2019-09-24T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T11:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-3109 | Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024? | [Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting ... | 2019-09-19T23:00:00Z | 2024-09-18T15:00:00Z | 2024-09-18T04:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-2807 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023? | Resolution Criteria: As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.
In any month... | 2019-06-27T22:00:00Z | 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2023-07-17T15:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-2795 | Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024? | Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for... | 2019-06-23T22:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T11:59:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-2671 | Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025? | On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-116... | 2019-03-30T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-2645 | Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025? | Electricity, internal combustion engines,
and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half o... | 2019-03-27T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2024-08-13T00:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-2616 | Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [T... | 2019-02-16T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T16:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-2599 | Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.
(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)
1. Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62
2. Amazon.com Inc AMZN 800.88
4. Alphab... | 2019-02-03T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-2577 | Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025? | [A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
The "No" side won, with 2,001,926 (55... | 2019-01-21T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-2518 | Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: [The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.
Volume of ... | 2019-01-11T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1663 | Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018? | My thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the... | 2018-12-21T23:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-31T14:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-1650 | Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025? | The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights.
An amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original c... | 2018-12-20T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-31T21:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T02:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1645 | Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100? | Resolution Criteria: A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 \(kg/m^3\), speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of \(45°\) [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an ... | 2018-12-17T23:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-24T13:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1640 | Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025? | More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplan... | 2018-12-16T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-21T16:28:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1631 | Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023? | Resolution Criteria: Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution.
As of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which th... | 2018-12-12T00:00:00Z | 2021-11-25T00:00:00Z | 2023-03-01T06:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-1534 | Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022? | In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate fo... | 2018-11-15T05:00:00Z | 2019-03-01T05:00:00Z | 2024-08-30T15:20:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1478 | Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024? | Resolution Criteria: The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):
> In the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extreme... | 2018-10-07T07:00:00Z | 2019-12-31T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1459 | By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness? | What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how c... | 2018-09-27T07:00:00Z | 2019-01-01T08:00:00Z | 2023-06-24T20:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1384 | Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025? | *This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always intere... | 2018-08-25T07:00:00Z | 2020-08-28T05:01:00Z | 2025-01-05T00:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1378 | Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon? | Resolution Criteria: Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They p... | 2018-08-24T07:00:00Z | 2018-12-01T05:00:00Z | 2023-08-23T12:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-1043 | Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science.
In the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/... | 2018-07-09T07:00:00Z | 2019-01-01T05:59:00Z | 2025-01-04T23:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-981 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024? | Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.
In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, ... | 2018-06-22T07:00:00Z | 2023-12-31T07:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T05:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-953 | Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? | Resolution Criteria: [Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential... | 2020-05-08T06:00:00Z | 2022-08-02T02:00:00Z | 2024-11-25T18:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-685 | Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s ["Death to Pennies"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?
After all, it [costs mo... | 2018-03-19T07:00:00Z | 2022-01-01T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-684 | Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025? | The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.
T... | 2018-03-19T07:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T08:00:00Z | 2025-01-04T23:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-669 | Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024? | Resolution Criteria: Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/)... | 2018-03-05T08:00:00Z | 2020-01-01T08:00:00Z | 2024-01-01T21:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-612 | Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025? | Resolution Criteria: SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk <a href="http://www.spacex.com/mars">announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet</a... | 2017-12-29T08:00:00Z | 2019-07-21T01:56:00Z | 2023-04-20T04:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-573 | The End of NAFTA? | Resolution Criteria: The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free... | 2017-10-25T22:00:00Z | 2018-10-30T20:00:00Z | 2020-07-01T04:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-477 | Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol? | Resolution Criteria: In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal *Aging* made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed tha... | 2017-06-12T21:21:40Z | 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-02-18T07:59:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-445 | By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall? | Resolution Criteria: In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that
> Am going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...
>It shall be called "The Boring Company"...
> I am really going to do this.
Per early-2017 reports, Musk has now [a... | 2017-02-25T16:51:45Z | 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-03T04:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-351 | Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly wi... | 2016-10-15T21:22:57Z | 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T10:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-255 | Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death.
Thus far, the world has been largely spared this horror.
The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo c... | 2016-06-15T00:00:00Z | 2017-12-15T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T12:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-254 | Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death.
Thus far, the world has been largely spared this horror.
The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon... | 2016-06-15T00:00:00Z | 2017-06-15T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T12:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-240 | Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025? | Resolution Criteria: Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is ... | 2016-06-15T00:00:00Z | 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T11:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
mani-9cn2tyq8nc | Will one or both Tate brothers visit Mar-a-Lago within 1 week [March 6]? - credible reporting | It has been reported that the Tate brothers are en route to Florida from Romania after their travel restrictions were lifted.
About a week ago, reports said that someone within the Trump administration was pushing Romania for their release.
This market resolved Yes if one or both Tate brothers are confirmed - by cre... | 2025-02-27T10:43:18 | 2025-03-06T23:59:00 | 2025-03-07T06:58:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I0tOsglSA2 | Will Andrew Tate meet in person with Trump within 1 week [March 6]? - photo/video | It has been reported that the Tate brothers are en route to Florida from Romania after their travel restrictions were lifted.
About a week ago, reports said that someone within the Trump administration was pushing Romania for their release.
This market resolved Yes if Andrew Tate is confirmed - by credible photos or... | 2025-02-27T09:19:13 | 2025-03-06T23:59:00 | 2025-03-07T06:59:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CPAdS2hLN5 | Will one or both Tate brothers visit Mar-a-Lago within 1 week [March 6]? - photo/video | It has been reported that the Tate brothers are en route to Florida from Romania after their travel restrictions were lifted.
About a week ago, reports said that someone within the Trump administration was pushing Romania for their release.
This market resolved Yes if one or both Tate brothers are confirmed - by cre... | 2025-02-27T09:15:58 | 2025-03-06T23:59:00 | 2025-03-07T06:59:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NlsRy20QsP | Will GPT-4.5 be released on Thursday? | [image] | 2025-02-26T20:07:02 | 2025-02-27T17:34:19 | 2025-02-27T17:34:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qgd8qOU5Qt | Will Zelensky visit the White House before March 5 to discuss and sign the minerals deal? | Zelensky and Trump have been negotiating a minerals deal giving the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. While a visit is expected political resistance in Ukraine and uncertainty over U.S. commitments could delay it!
Will Zelensky make the trip and finalize the deal before March 5 or will obstacles push it ba... | 2025-02-25T21:31:55 | 2025-03-05T10:29:00 | 2025-03-06T03:02:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SC6n26qN80 | Will Mark Carney become Prime Minister of Canada? | Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Timeframe: Mark Carney must become Prime Minister of Canada prior to December 31, 2025 for the outcome to count.
Implication: Outcomes occurring after this date will not satisfy the criteria. | 2025-02-23T19:15:24 | 2025-03-09T16:01:57 | 2025-03-09T16:01:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SsZAC02yIy | US tariffs on Canada delayed again on or before March 4, 2025 | This market tracks whether the US will announce another delay in implementing 25% tariffs on most Canadian imports before March 4, 2025.
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES if the US government officially announces a delay or suspension of planned tariffs on Canada on or before March 4, 2025
Resolves NO if no delay is... | 2025-02-22T12:25:06 | 2025-03-04T04:33:53 | 2025-03-04T04:33:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q95nSslnUN | Will Pope Francis live past the end of February? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2025-02-22T12:09:44 | 2025-03-01T20:59:00 | 2025-03-01T21:44:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pOsdERczps | Will Grok remain the #1 model on the Chatbot Arena through March 31? [Polymarket] | See the polymarket market:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by xAI has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) continuously from February 18, to March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" secti... | 2025-02-18T10:57:40 | 2025-03-09T06:11:38 | 2025-03-09T06:11:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hU90uUlIcy | Bitcoin above $97K on February 28? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $97,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on Feb 28, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primar... | 2025-02-17T22:04:18 | 2025-02-28T23:59:00 | 2025-03-01T16:48:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hsncEU09P0 | Will the United States win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off championship? 🏒 | [image] | 2025-02-17T11:55:00 | 2025-02-20T20:35:34 | 2025-02-20T20:35:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9t5cq2tud8 | will xAI release a reasoning model today? | Will xAI release a reasoning model today? (today = Monday PT)
[image]For clarity: release = must be available to members of the public (e.g. x.com premium users or something) | 2025-02-17T06:07:08 | 2025-02-17T23:59:00 | 2025-02-19T01:58:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SN20tnyclN | Will Amazon (AMZN) close higher on February 21st than it did on February 14th | Background
Amazon's stock closed at $228.68 on February 14th, 2025.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Amazon's (AMZN) stock closing price on February 21st, 2025 is higher than $228.68 (its February 14th closing price). It will resolve to NO if the closing price is equal to or lower than $228.68... | 2025-02-17T05:26:58 | 2025-02-21T16:30:53 | 2025-02-21T16:30:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dOq89tIScc | Was Milei hacked? | Background On February 14, Argentine President Javier Milei posted about a LIBRA token on his X (formerly Twitter) account. The announcement was also shared on his Instagram account. The token's value reportedly increased significantly following the announcement.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the... | 2025-02-14T17:56:51 | 2025-02-17T22:06:35 | 2025-02-17T22:06:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P5zIZ5ucZz | Will the Israel - Hamas ceasefire end on Saturday? | Background
The current Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement involves the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has announced a delay in releasing hostages, citing alleged Israeli violations of the agreement. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has issued an ultimatum stating that if Hamas... | 2025-02-12T07:48:21 | 2025-02-15T02:00:00 | 2025-02-18T12:32:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ctz2EdtCPQ | Bitcoin above $97K on February 21? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $97,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on Feb 21, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primar... | 2025-02-11T14:23:06 | 2025-02-21T01:31:02 | 2025-02-21T01:31:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pCg2p0qNI5 | will xAI release a reasoning model this month? | Background
Rumour:
[image] | 2025-02-11T07:32:04 | 2025-02-18T22:56:38 | 2025-02-18T22:56:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sn0ngz2Etc | will Grok 3 be released this week? | Resolves YES if Grok 3 is released this week.
Background:
Rumour:
[image]Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Calendar Week Definition:
The resolution is based on a calendar week rather than a 7-day period from market creation.
Any release anywhere on Earth during that calendar week will resol... | 2025-02-11T07:30:55 | 2025-02-17T02:59:00 | 2025-02-17T03:15:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zPtp60hSZC | Will Donald Trump say he loves Elon Musk, in 2025? | [tweet]Resolves YES if, after market creation but in 2025, Donald Trump says he loves Elon Musk. He must use the word "love" and refer to Elon. It does not count if he refers to an attribute elon musk has, like "I love Elon Musk's eyes". He doesn't need to mention Elon by name; saying "I love him", referring to Elon, c... | 2025-02-07T15:04:58 | 2025-03-02T13:18:32 | 2025-03-02T13:18:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UEyndCyOO8 | Will Taylor Swift & Donald Trump shake hands at Super Bowl LIX? | Resolution criteria borrowed from Polymarket [1].
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at Super Bowl LIX, Donald Trump and Taylor Swift shake hands at any point on while on venue grounds (must be confirmed by picture or video). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
[1]. Resolution criteria, not resolution resu... | 2025-02-07T14:15:33 | 2025-02-09T14:59:00 | 2025-02-09T20:45:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OsLNNZ8ypQ | Trump will sign an executive order that mentions "Bitcoin" in 2025 | Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Official sources:
The executive order must be published on whitehouse.gov or the Federal Register.
Keywords:
The text must include bitcoin, bitcoins, or BTC (in the meaning of Bitcoin).
This clarifies that only orders meeting these specific criteria will reso... | 2025-02-07T13:22:22 | 2025-03-06T22:27:37 | 2025-03-06T22:27:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ntgCy2C2c2 | Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Context: https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1887837266703417817
Criteria: Resolves to 'Yes' if Kanye West is confirmed by credible reports to have launched his own blockchain token before February 28, 2025, 11:59pm (PST). | 2025-02-07T12:15:38 | 2025-02-28T23:59:00 | 2025-03-01T08:04:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QncIcO8sng | Will Grok 3 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard? | https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
Resolves YES if Grok 3 has the highest Arena Score at any point within one week of it appearing on the leaderboard.
| 2025-02-07T06:05:05 | 2025-02-17T23:28:57 | 2025-02-17T23:28:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UOOtzz8s6U | Will the iPhone SE debut next week? | By "debut" I mean "be officially presented by Apple
https://www.macrumors.com/2025/02/06/iphone-se-4-launch-next-week/ | 2025-02-07T01:30:34 | 2025-02-16T11:24:38 | 2025-02-16T11:24:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z8R0SPSdIy | Will David Pakman have more YouTube video views in February compared to January? | This market resolves yes if the David Pakman Show YouTube channel has more views in February than in January according to this SocialBlade page.
[image]Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Data Point Clarification:
The market will be resolved based on the monthly gained video views grap... | 2025-02-06T14:08:22 | 2025-02-28T23:59:00 | 2025-03-01T12:23:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qt6dndUSQR | Will Trump impose additional tariffs on China before April 10? | This market closes on March 6th, but cannot resolve NO until April 11th.
The tariffs must actually go into effect for this market to resolve YES. The market still resolves YES even if the tariffs are removed immediately after taking effect. | 2025-02-04T10:00:10 | 2025-03-04T08:27:05 | 2025-03-04T08:27:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hlLZEPn2qS | Will Trump sign tariffs on the EU by March? | Trump has placed tariffs on Canada (and has postponed tariffs on Mexico before they went into effect). He's now saying that the EU will "definitely" see tariffs as well.
Resolves YES if Trump signs any executive order OR signs any congressional act that places tariffs on the European Union (or 2+ specific EU countries... | 2025-02-03T11:43:27 | 2025-02-28T20:59:00 | 2025-02-28T22:22:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ugUuysuqy5 | Will there be another notable US plane crash in February? | The last market had less-than-great resolution criteria. Hopefully this one will be a little better!
For the purposes of this market:
"Notable" means any of the following:
At least 3 of CNN, the New York Times, NBC News, Reuters, AP News, Fox News, USA Today, BBC, or NPR call the accident a "crash,"
The accident le... | 2025-02-02T13:48:05 | 2025-02-07T17:07:51 | 2025-02-07T17:07:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CuNIsAP69U | S&P 500 drops more than 6% on February 3rd, 2025 compared to January 31st close | Market will resolve YES if the S&P 500 index closes more than 6% lower on February 3rd, 2025 compared to its closing price on January 31st, 2025. Resolution based on official closing prices from https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data | 2025-02-02T08:49:20 | 2025-02-03T16:00:00 | 2025-02-05T06:29:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lI8082U9SN | Will Alex Pereira defeat Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 313? | Draw or No Contest will resolve as N/A
Chama
🤣😭
| 2025-02-02T07:18:15 | 2025-03-08T22:02:54 | 2025-03-08T22:02:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-82ZAnEgEhh | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 3 than it closed on Jan 31? | Will it close higher than $6,040.53 | 2025-02-02T01:18:26 | 2025-02-03T13:50:25 | 2025-02-03T13:50:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hNZ9Sc2ANP | Will Trump issue an executive order in February to shut down the Department of Education? | Resolves YES even if the order is blocked by a court, or rescinded 15 minutes after being issued
Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Full shutdown/defunding required: The executive order must result in the complete shutdown of the Department of Education by fully defunding it.
Partial defunding d... | 2025-01-31T12:18:29 | 2025-02-07T23:59:00 | 2025-03-04T15:12:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tUnR8PZZEz | Will OpenAI run a Super Bowl ad? | I will borrow resolution criteria from Kalshi:
This market is strictly for ads ran via the national broadcast on Fox Sports. Ads ran on local broadcasts or Fox Deportes will not count for this market. The advertisement must occur after kick-off and before the game has ended. An ad is aired if it is aired as part of a... | 2025-01-31T08:57:20 | 2025-02-09T15:20:00 | 2025-02-09T20:40:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OPl99N5Aun | Super Bowl LIX: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2025-01-30T18:56:48 | 2025-02-09T19:21:18 | 2025-02-09T19:47:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8NUA6LsysN | Bitcoin above $105K on Valentine's Day? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $105,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on Feb 14, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The prima... | 2025-01-29T23:40:47 | 2025-02-14T23:59:00 | 2025-02-15T09:09:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UyuZpIzR9g | At least 5% of federal workers accept Trump administration buyout offer by February 6th 2025 | The Trump administration has offered federal workers a 'deferred resignation' buyout program, estimating 5-10% acceptance rate [edit: I previously said 5%, in error]. Resolution based on official government statements or credible news reports (NBC News, etc.) of final acceptance rate by program deadline.
Resolution cr... | 2025-01-29T21:07:12 | 2025-02-06T16:00:00 | 2025-02-13T09:04:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EUCtpdlgCp | Will the midair collision at Reagan Airport be shown to be terrorism? | From the FAA:
A PSA Airlines Bombardier CRJ700 regional jet collided in midair with a Sikorsky H-60 helicopter while on approach to Runway 33 at Reagan Washington National Airport around 9 p.m. local time.
PSA was operating as Flight 5342 for American Airlines. It departed from Wichita, Kansas.
Resolves on reports f... | 2025-01-29T20:32:31 | 2025-03-05T09:02:40 | 2025-03-05T09:02:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-59QPz2PRLI | Will Taylor Swift be shown at least 10 times during the Super Bowl broadcast? | Resolution source: I will almost certainly follow the number determined by Polymarket (unless there is overwhelming reason to doubt their number, in which case I will look for a consensus of credible reporting).
Thus, this only counts between the start of the national anthem and the final whistle of the game. Each di... | 2025-01-29T07:39:53 | 2025-02-09T15:35:00 | 2025-02-10T08:22:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C8zpgUnZQR | Will Trump again express intent to run for a third term while he is president, before the end of Febuary 2025? | Any expression of intent counts, even if it is "obviously a joke", e.g. a Tweet saying "Who knows? Maybe I will run in 2028." counts.
Note: on Jan 29 he joked about it which resulted in the prior market resolving YES.
Must be from today or later. | 2025-01-29T00:51:25 | 2025-02-28T23:59:00 | 2025-03-03T11:34:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sA685lh9ZA | Bitcoin above $102K on Feb 10? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $102,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on February 10, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The ... | 2025-01-29T00:04:09 | 2025-02-10T23:59:00 | 2025-02-11T13:18:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lsplIEPgdn | Will o3 (OpenAI model) be released before March 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2025-01-28T19:08:20 | 2025-03-01T20:59:00 | 2025-03-02T17:37:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tPN8gSdLR0 | Will Trump announce mass layoffs on Feb 7? | Axios reports that all Federal employees have received an email similar to Elon's "Fork in the Road" ultimatum to Twitter employees in 2022.
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance
Reporting suggests that, if a federal employee replies to the email before February 6 and expresses in writ... | 2025-01-28T17:03:48 | 2025-02-07T14:34:46 | 2025-02-07T14:34:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ISApEyZ6Et | Will Anthropic release a reasoning model before March 2025? | Resolves yes if Anthropic releases a model for public use before March | 2025-01-28T14:38:25 | 2025-02-24T12:59:19 | 2025-02-24T12:59:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PQcOnqEty5 | Will NVDA recover this month? | Resolves YES if NVDA reaches 134 before Jan 31, 2025, 4 PM ET
Background:
NVDA crashed in response to China's DeepSeek success
[image] | 2025-01-27T10:44:20 | 2025-01-31T16:00:00 | 2025-01-31T16:08:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SZslRAZOIu | NVIDIA (NVDA) stock price above $140 by February 10, 2025 | This market tracks whether NVIDIA's stock will recover to its previous high of $140 within the next 14 days.
Resolution will be based on the closing price on February 10, 2025 as reported by Investing.com.
References:
https://www.investopedia.com/nvidia-stock-extends-recovery-rally-nears-record-high-8697887
https:/... | 2025-01-27T08:01:29 | 2025-02-09T16:00:00 | 2025-02-20T10:13:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qLP0EQLl80 | Trump imposes new tariffs on Canada by EOD February 1st, 2025 | This market will resolve based on whether President Donald Trump implements new tariffs on Canada by the end of the day on February 1st, 2025. The market will resolve YES if official announcements or executive orders are issued by the U.S. government imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada.
Note that although Trump ... | 2025-01-27T06:40:19 | 2025-02-01T14:36:40 | 2025-02-01T14:36:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UC9pu9cAhp | Super Bowl LIX: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win? | ℹ YES if Philadelphia Eagles win. NO if Kansas City Chiefs win. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-26T17:59:57 | 2025-02-09T19:21:18 | 2025-02-09T19:21:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SOCnUR8pA8 | PEPFAR funding unfrozen by February 15, 2025 | On January 24, the State Department paused disbursements of foreign aid for a 90-day review period. So far, there are exemptions for emergency food aid but not for PEPFAR. This market resolves YES if PEPFAR funding is unfrozen as of February 15, 2025, and NO if funding is (still) frozen on that date.
https://apnews.co... | 2025-01-25T16:32:18 | 2025-02-15T16:00:00 | 2025-03-01T13:09:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
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