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mani-ldPUOQlQUz
|
Will Trump be Nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
|
Will Donald Trump be nominated to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year? Nominations are due by the end of January. The market will resolve by Feb 28 or whenever they are announced, whichever is sooner. If there are no announcements it will resolve N/A.
Note: if one of the people who can make nominations announces that Trump has been nominated, this will resolve YES.
If others are announced or leaked, but not Trump, it will resolve NO.
|
2025-01-24T17:20:45
|
2025-02-05T06:40:33
|
2025-02-05T06:40:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uQCZ2EEuZt
|
Bitcoin above $105K on Feb 7?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $105,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on Feb 7, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase BTC/USD price. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from Kraken and Bitstamp may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.
Additional Notes:
• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (12:00 AM - 11:59 PM PT) on Feb 7, 2025 will count towards resolution.
• If Bitcoin exceeds $105,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.
• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.
|
2025-01-24T02:16:29
|
2025-02-07T23:59:00
|
2025-02-08T09:40:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-INNdg6nsh2
|
Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?
|
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31257)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point after January 10, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, semaglutide is not listed as "Currently in Shortage" on the FDA's drug shortage list. Otherwise if it remains on the FDA's drug shortage list, this question resolves as No.
|
2025-01-22T14:28:29
|
2025-03-03T18:22:47
|
2025-03-03T18:22:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UhnlC6y5hU
|
Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?
|
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31348)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, during calendar year 2025, the United States federal government releases any previously unreleased documents from any federal court case (criminal or civil) or investigation related to Jeffrey Epstein. The court case or investigation must involve or be related to claims of illegal or harmful sexual activity conducted by Epstein or his associates.
|
2025-01-22T12:36:21
|
2025-03-03T16:08:20
|
2025-03-03T16:08:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dtuS82zIOO
|
Will Google Maps still say Gulf of Mexico at the end of February?
|
resolves yes if the name is gulf of mexico and not gulf of america or any other variation
i will be checking from nyc at a random time on that day (later in the afternoon) and checking from usa ip
[image]
|
2025-01-22T11:05:54
|
2025-02-28T20:59:00
|
2025-03-06T19:03:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zh6CCnt0LA
|
Will the total points scored on Championship Sunday exceed 95.5?
|
ℹ The sum of the final scores for both teams in each game. If a game goes to overtime, points scored in overtime are included in the total.
YES: 96 or more total points
NO: 95 or less total points
Example: If the Commanders vs. Eagles game ends 30-27 and the Bills vs. Chiefs game ends 28-24, the combined total points are: 30 + 27 + 28 + 24 = 109. Resolves YES.
|
2025-01-21T21:31:41
|
2025-01-26T18:42:23
|
2025-01-26T18:42:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gEQygUsypE
|
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok iOS app is available for download on the US Apple App Store between Jan 19, 7:30 PM and January 24, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, it will still be considered available for download.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the Apple App Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
clone of https://polymarket.com/event/will-tiktok-be-on-the-app-store-on-friday
|
2025-01-21T16:31:25
|
2025-01-24T02:59:00
|
2025-01-25T09:12:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0NAQyAO9sd
|
[💣] Will a senator switch party affiliation before 1/28?
|
[image]Based on this tweet. Doesn't have to be Dem -> Rep, just any party swap. Independent swaps have to caucus with a different party; i.e. a dem swapping to "independent but caucuses with dems" would not count.
|
2025-01-21T12:50:38
|
2025-01-27T20:59:59
|
2025-01-27T21:24:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z8l9ZA0INE
|
Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Mexico by the end of February?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2025-01-20T21:22:51
|
2025-02-27T18:32:00
|
2025-03-05T06:43:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p9g8CdAES8
|
Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Canada by the end of February?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2025-01-20T21:22:33
|
2025-02-27T18:32:00
|
2025-03-06T16:31:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dc50PgEl0g
|
Bitcoin above $100K on Jan 31?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 31, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase BTC/USD price. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from Kraken and Bitstamp may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.
Additional Notes:
• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (12:00 AM - 11:59 PM PT) on January 31, 2025 will count towards resolution.
• If Bitcoin exceeds $100,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.
• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.
|
2025-01-20T16:34:13
|
2025-01-31T01:06:19
|
2025-01-31T01:06:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P2Uy69OddN
|
Will Google Maps display "Gulf of America" in place of "Gulf of Mexico" before 2026?
|
Background The Gulf of Mexico is a major body of water bordered by the United States, Mexico, and Cuba. In recent years, there have been occasional proposals to rename it to "Gulf of America," though no official changes have been approved by international governing bodies or mapping authorities.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Google Maps displays "Gulf of America" instead of "Gulf of Mexico" as the primary label for this body of water at any point before January 1, 2026. The change must be visible on the main Google Maps website (maps.google.com) and/or the official Google Maps mobile app.
The market will resolve NO if:
Google Maps continues to display "Gulf of Mexico" through December 31, 2025
Google Maps displays both names simultaneously
The change appears only in experimental features, beta versions, or regional variants
The change appears only temporarily due to a technical error
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
The change to "Gulf of America" must be visible to all US users on the main Google Maps website (maps.google.com) and/or the official Google Maps mobile app, even if other regions continue to display "Gulf of Mexico."
|
2025-01-20T15:43:15
|
2025-02-10T16:42:36
|
2025-02-10T16:42:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-shusCqNdRt
|
Will the Buffalo Bills trample the Kansas City Chiefs?
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2025-01-19T18:38:31
|
2025-01-26T18:52:39
|
2025-01-26T18:52:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s8ENOdU8cP
|
Will Trump sign 100+ executive orders on Day One?
|
Resolves YES if Trump signs 100 or more executive orders on January 20th.
Source: https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders
For reference, in 2017, Trump only signed a single executive order. However, some rumors claim that he will sign 200+ (!!!) executive orders on his first day.
[tweet]
|
2025-01-19T17:36:12
|
2025-01-20T23:59:00
|
2025-01-29T08:40:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lpOdRgdsgl
|
Will the Washington Commanders conquer the Philadelphia Eagles?
|
ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable.
|
2025-01-19T17:28:30
|
2025-01-26T15:41:01
|
2025-01-26T15:41:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hq9utlgEUA
|
NCAAF National Championship 🏈 Will Ohio State win by double digits against Notre Dame?
|
Ohio St vs Notre Dame
Kickoff 07:30 PM EST 1/20/25
|
2025-01-19T15:17:43
|
2025-01-20T20:11:43
|
2025-01-20T20:11:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pqpC5ZSpPN
|
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift at the 2025 Super Bowl?
|
This market will resolve YES if Travis Kelce proposes marriage to Taylor Swift during the 2025 Super Bowl, including pre-game, during the game, or post-game celebrations on the same day, in the immediate vicinity of the stadium. The proposal must be verified by credible media sources or direct confirmation from either party, or take place clearly on camera. If the Kansas City Chiefs do not make the Super Bowl, or Kelce is injured, and so on, this market will stay open just in case he proposes while in attendance anyway.
|
2025-01-19T15:03:35
|
2025-02-10T03:39:29
|
2025-02-10T03:39:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QqtR9NUUhO
|
Will another member of the Trump Family release a self-styled cryptocurrency "meme" token before March 1, 2025?
|
As of January 19, 2025, both Trump and Melania have released self-styled "meme" tokens - $TRUMP and $MELANIA.
NFTs do not count.
|
2025-01-19T13:21:48
|
2025-03-09T03:56:33
|
2025-03-09T03:56:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R2Us9Nl8S8
|
Will $Trump coin (Official Trump) get to a fully diluted valuation of $100 billion by January 21?
|
This market will resolve YES if $Trump coin (Official Trump) gets to $100 billion in fully diluted valuation (not market capitalization) before January 21st (midnight EST).
It is currently at a $59.39 billion fully diluted valuation.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/official-trump
I will trade this market but will of course resolve it fairly.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - The market will end at midnight tonight (January 21st, 11:59 PM EST). (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2025-01-19T01:17:03
|
2025-01-20T21:38:15
|
2025-01-20T21:38:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h2pdlsupZc
|
SpaceX Starship Flight 8 lands successfully without destruction by April 1st, 2025
|
Following Flight 7's upper stage destruction due to a propellant leak, this market predicts whether the next Starship test (Flight 8) will achieve a successful landing without destruction of either stage. Resolution criteria: Market resolves YES if both stages of Starship complete their mission profiles without destruction during Flight 8. Market resolves NO if either stage is destroyed or experiences catastrophic failure during the mission. Sources for resolution: Official SpaceX streams and announcements, verified space news sources like space.com.
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Blowing up of a stage is only considered a successful resolution if it is part of the mission plan.
If a soft splashdown is planned and a stage blows up unexpectedly, the market resolves to NO.
|
2025-01-17T20:14:07
|
2025-03-08T21:43:52
|
2025-03-08T21:43:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0CEOunlc9d
|
Will Georgia unsuspend any poultry activity before February?
|
This PR just came out from Georgia
[image]This market resolve yes as soon as a new PR by the Georgia Department of Agriculture or a similarly official announcement comes out which allows any of the currently suspended poultry activities to resume.
This market resolves No if by Jan 31st 23:59 EST all poultry activity continues to remain suspended.
|
2025-01-17T16:48:28
|
2025-01-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-07T14:03:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t2LRSSIg90
|
Will the "last minute" breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire last until January 31, 2025?
|
As per Bloomberg:
Hamas has reneged on parts of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release deal that was already agreed upon, and is creating a last-minute crisis that prevents the completion of the accord, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said.
The Israeli cabinet will not convene to approve the deal until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement, his office said.
Resolves to "Yes" if, by February 1, 2025, 23:59 IST:
The Israeli government's official position is that no ceasefire accord (deal) is in place between the State of Israel and Hamas. In other words: the status quo remains as of January 16, 2025.
Agreements in principle do not count - an official accord (deal) must be signed by both sides.
|
2025-01-16T01:23:53
|
2025-01-19T04:55:48
|
2025-01-19T04:55:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nyyg5h8s25
|
Bitcoin above $98K on Jan 24th?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $98,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 24, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase BTC/USD price. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from Kraken and Bitstamp may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.
Additional Notes:
• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (12:00 AM - 11:59 PM PT) on January 24, 2025 will count towards resolution.
• If Bitcoin exceeds $98,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.
• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.
|
2025-01-15T23:22:25
|
2025-01-24T00:50:02
|
2025-01-24T00:50:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sUuCqZ9OR0
|
Israel strike on Iran by Feb 1
|
This market will resolve YES if Israel conducts a military strike against Iranian territory or Iranian nuclear facilities before Feb 1, 2025. This includes:
Direct airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force
Special forces operations
Missile strikes
Drone strikes
The market will resolve NO if no strike occurs by Feb 1, 2025
Does not count: Israel strikes Iranian-backed forces or facilities in other countries (e.g., Syria, Lebanon)
|
2025-01-15T14:31:18
|
2025-01-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-01T08:59:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ApZ0tN5Qy8
|
Will Bernie Sanders vote Yes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?
|
Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Yes votes include both Yes and Yea.
|
2025-01-15T13:18:43
|
2025-02-25T09:52:17
|
2025-02-25T09:52:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NZgqzgtuCs
|
Will the first day of the ceasefire (January 19, 2025) pass with zero Israeli airstrikes on Gaza?
|
Background A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached after extensive negotiations, set to begin on January 19, 2025. This marks a potential pause in the 15-month conflict. In the days leading up to the agreement, Israeli airstrikes continued in Gaza, with strikes reported even as negotiations were being finalized.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if there are zero confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Gaza during January 19, 2025 (00:00-23:59 Gaza local time). It will resolve NO if there is at least one confirmed Israeli airstrike during this period.
An "airstrike" is defined as any aerial bombardment conducted by Israeli forces, including attacks from planes, drones, or helicopters
Confirmation must come from reliable media sources, official military statements, or verified international observers
Artillery fire or ground-based attacks do not count as airstrikes
Defensive measures such as missile interception by the Iron Dome system do not count as airstrikes
Considerations
Previous ceasefires in this conflict have sometimes experienced violations within the first 24 hours
The phased nature of this agreement and ongoing tensions may affect compliance
There may be disputes about whether certain military actions qualify as "airstrikes" - resolution will rely on official confirmations and mainstream media reporting
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution period:
00:00-00:00 Gaza local time
08:30-08:30 Gaza local time
A confirmed Israeli airstrike occurring in either time frame will result in the market resolving as NO.
|
2025-01-15T12:32:22
|
2025-01-20T01:53:24
|
2025-01-20T01:53:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LZqRChOl9P
|
Will Biden pardon anyone in his final two days in office?
|
Previous presidents (especially Obama and Trump) have used their last day or two in office to issue a slew of last-minute pardons. Will Biden issue any on these final two days of his presidency?
Commutations do not count. Any pardons issued by Biden on January 19th or January 20th (eastern time) resolve this YES. Pardons issued before that will not. Trump takes office at noon ET on the 20th. I give mods permission to resolve this immediately if a pardon occurs.
Update 2025-18-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
**If Vice President Harris becomes President and issues any pardons on January 19th or January 20th (Eastern Time), the market will be resolved as N/A.
|
2025-01-15T10:24:25
|
2025-01-19T18:50:09
|
2025-01-19T18:50:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AQLN6PqZdl
|
Will Trump's second inauguration address be >50% longer than his first inauguration address? (by word count)
|
Context: Trump has gotten much more loquacious as he ages, to put it mildly.
Resolution: I will use wordcounter.net, with a transcript posted to a .gov address, if available (otherwise I will substitute with the most reputable-seeming transcript I can find).
Here is the transcript for Trump's 2017 inauguration address. According to wordcounter.net, it was 1,444 words. Thus, this market resolves YES if Trump's 2025 inauguration address has 2,167 or more words.
I will resolve based on the most official transcript I can find, as long it is ~basically what Trump said. If the transcript differs from what he actually said aloud by a few words here or there, I won't be manually trying to adjust the word count to match what he actually says, I'll just use the transcript.
This assumes the transcript is ~basically correct—if Trump goes on long tangents that aren't included in the transcript for some reason, only then will I try to find a transcript of what he actually said.
I'm not going to second guess what wordcounter.net defines as a word—I'll just be copy pasting the transcript & accepting how it's counted.
(Note that there can be slight differences in word count depending on the source, e.g. Wikipedia lists his 2017 address as 1433 words instead, that's why I'm specifying my definition now).
This market will close before the inauguration.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:
Transcript Source: An MSNBC transcript (2800+ words) was used, significantly exceeding the required threshold of 2,167 words.
Early Resolution: The market is being resolved as YES based on the MSNBC transcript without waiting for an official .gov transcript, as the current transcript sufficiently meets the resolution criteria.
Transcript Accuracy: Minor differences in word count from official transcripts will not affect the resolution unless discrepancies are substantial (e.g., 700 words).
|
2025-01-15T09:06:31
|
2025-01-19T23:59:00
|
2025-01-20T16:10:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OItNyCRg6h
|
Will Biden issue a preemptive pardon?
|
Resolves YES if Biden issues at least one pardon only for crime(s) for which the individual was not yet charged or convicted, before the end of Biden’s term.
Update 2025-14-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - YES requires Biden to issue a pardon only for crimes for which the individual has not been charged.
A pardon that includes both uncharged and charged crimes does not count towards a YES resolution.
For example, a pardon that preempts possible future charges for individuals like Fauci, Cheney, or Schiff would count, but pardons that also include current convictions (e.g., Hunter’s pardon) do not count.
|
2025-01-14T15:10:28
|
2025-01-20T07:28:38
|
2025-01-20T07:28:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6dSdlluqyd
|
Elon Musk addresses Path of Exile cheating rumours by end of February
|
resolves YES if Elon makes any kind of public statement directly addressing the rumours (confirming/denying/directly addressing)
Update 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only public statements that confirm, deny, or explicitly address the rumours will be considered as addressing them.
Deflection or indirect responses will not count towards resolving to YES.
|
2025-01-14T06:15:05
|
2025-01-21T14:06:22
|
2025-01-21T14:06:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-czN0CqsNCd
|
Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the LA Rams?
|
ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable.
|
2025-01-13T20:16:36
|
2025-01-19T15:17:46
|
2025-01-19T15:17:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C9Rp92NCUt
|
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal before Trump’s inauguration?
|
Will consult major news sources as well as statements from Israel, Hamas, and mediating countries to determine whether a ceasefire deal has been agreed to by both sides. market closes on january 20th, 2025.
Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - Ceasefire Agreement: Any agreement between both sides that involves a cessation of hostilities counts as a ceasefire agreement, even if it is part of a longer series of phased negotiations for more far-reaching settlements of the conflict. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - Ratification by Israeli Cabinet: The ceasefire agreement must be officially ratified by the Israeli cabinet to be considered valid. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2025-01-13T18:58:21
|
2025-01-18T07:50:18
|
2025-01-18T07:50:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hn6O9PUQN0
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the Buffalo Bills?
|
ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable.
|
2025-01-13T13:26:15
|
2025-01-19T18:39:55
|
2025-01-19T18:39:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LL5uOE0L5p
|
Will the Washington Commanders conquer the Detroit Lions?
|
ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable.
|
2025-01-13T13:25:09
|
2025-01-18T20:24:42
|
2025-01-18T20:24:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cIz8O8COg2
|
Will the Nintendo switch successor console be revealed on January 16th of this year?
|
This will resolve YES if the switch successor is revealed on January 16th.
This is inclusive of a variety of timezones, as long as it is January the 16th somewhere in the world it will resolve YES.
|
2025-01-13T09:42:50
|
2025-01-16T05:09:39
|
2025-01-16T05:09:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hLPEyRA8AU
|
Will the AfD receive >= 20% of votes in the 2025 German federal election?
|
Will the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party receive equal to or more than 20% of votes in the February 23, 2025 federal election?
In 2021, the AfD received 10.4% of votes. Current polling shows AfD at 19.9%. Resolution based on official results for second (party) votes.
Source: https://politpro.eu/en/germany, https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
|
2025-01-12T20:16:29
|
2025-02-25T16:00:00
|
2025-02-25T20:44:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yIs26sZ6I2
|
Will Trump tour any areas damaged by the Los Angeles fires before February 1, 2025?
|
Will Trump tour any area of Los Angeles damaged by the recent fires?
Credible reports of Trump doing so before January 31, 2025 23:59 PST will resolve this question to "Yes".
Tour can be in any capacity (e.g., on foot, inside a vehicle or by helicopter) as long as the reports explicitly state that Trump is there in situ inspecting damage, speaking to residents impacted for example.
|
2025-01-12T11:58:57
|
2025-01-25T09:53:34
|
2025-01-25T09:53:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NSnAl2U56h
|
Will Lamar Jackson wins the MVP?
|
Background
Josh Allen is the quarterback for the Buffalo Bills and has been one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks since 2020. He has never won an MVP award but has received votes in previous seasons. The NFL MVP is voted on by a panel of 50 media members selected by the Associated Press.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Josh Allen wins the Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2023 NFL season. The award is typically announced at the NFL Honors ceremony before the Super Bowl in early 2024.
The market will resolve to NO if:
Another player wins the AP NFL MVP award
Allen shares the award with another player (in the unlikely event of a tie)
Allen is unable to complete the season due to injury or other circumstances
Considerations
The MVP award has gone to quarterbacks in 10 of the last 11 seasons
Key competitors for the award include Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Tua Tagovailoa
Team success typically plays a major role in MVP voting - the Bills' overall record and playoff performance could significantly impact Allen's chances
Background The NFL MVP award is voted on by a panel of 50 media members selected by the Associated Press. Lamar Jackson, quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens, has emerged as the frontrunner after being named first-team All-Pro quarterback for the 2023 season. Historically, the NFL MVP has almost always been awarded to the first-team All-Pro quarterback, with the last exception being Steve McNair in 2003. Jackson has led the league in QBR and accumulated impressive stats including 41 passing touchdowns, 4,172 passing yards, and 915 rushing yards.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if Lamar Jackson wins the Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2023 NFL season. The award is typically announced at the NFL Honors ceremony before the Super Bowl in early 2024.
The market will resolve to NO if:
Another player wins the AP NFL MVP award
Jackson shares the award with another player (in the unlikely event of a tie)
The AP MVP award is not given out for any reason
Considerations
Current betting odds heavily favor Jackson (-230) over his closest competitor Josh Allen (+190)
The first-team All-Pro selection has historically been a strong indicator of MVP selection
While Josh Allen has had an impressive season leading a less talented Bills team, the combination of Jackson's statistical performance and the Ravens' success makes him the clear favorite
|
2025-01-12T10:15:28
|
2025-02-06T20:34:36
|
2025-02-06T20:34:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OPOquSLOcu
|
Will Josh Allen win the MVP?
|
Background
Josh Allen is the quarterback for the Buffalo Bills and has been one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks since 2020. He has never won an MVP award but has received votes in previous seasons. The NFL MVP is voted on by a panel of 50 media members selected by the Associated Press.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Josh Allen wins the Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2023 NFL season. The award is typically announced at the NFL Honors ceremony before the Super Bowl in early 2024.
The market will resolve to NO if:
Another player wins the AP NFL MVP award
Allen shares the award with another player (in the unlikely event of a tie)
Allen is unable to complete the season due to injury or other circumstances
Considerations
The MVP award has gone to quarterbacks in 10 of the last 11 seasons
Key competitors for the award include Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Tua Tagovailoa
Team success typically plays a major role in MVP voting - the Bills' overall record and playoff performance could significantly impact Allen's chances
|
2025-01-12T10:14:45
|
2025-02-06T20:34:49
|
2025-02-06T20:34:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zCEhRZdgRA
|
First working quantum circuit to factor 77 into 7 and 11 on IBM's cloud service published before March 1st, 2025
|
This market resolves YES if someone publishes a working quantum circuit implementation that successfully factors 77 into 7 and 11 using IBM's cloud quantum computing service before March 1st, 2025. The implementation must be publicly available (e.g. on GitHub, arXiv, or similar platform) and verifiably demonstrate successful factorization on IBM's platform. Resolution will be based on public announcements, academic publications, or verifiable GitHub repositories showing working code.
Motivated by Martin Shkreli's tweet:
[tweet]
|
2025-01-10T20:21:33
|
2025-01-13T19:34:26
|
2025-01-13T19:34:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Su5CLzPZZ8
|
Will TikTok be meaningfully banned in the US on March 1, 2025?
|
A law requiring ByteDance (TikTok's Chinese parent company) to sell TikTok or face a ban in the United States is set to take effect on January 19, 2025. TikTok has appealed to the Supreme Court to block this law, arguing it violates the First Amendment and other constitutional provisions. The case is currently pending.
Meanwhile, it seems like Trump might not enforce the law, leaving it theoretically banned but still accessible.
This market will resolve YES if TikTok is no longer available for download in both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store on March 1, 2025.
The market will resolve NO if either:
TikTok remains available and functional in the U.S. on March 1, 2025, being downloadable from at least one of those app stores
The ban is blocked, delayed, or overturned before March 1, 2025
ByteDance sells TikTok to a U.S. company before March 1, 2025, avoiding a ban
|
2025-01-10T17:18:12
|
2025-03-01T22:59:00
|
2025-03-01T23:10:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QRsPZsqgON
|
Bitcoin above $96K on Jan 17th?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $96,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 17, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase BTC/USD price. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from Kraken and Bitstamp may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.
Additional Notes:
• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (12:00 AM - 11:59 PM PT) on January 17, 2025 will count towards resolution.
• If Bitcoin exceeds $96,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.
• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.
|
2025-01-10T15:36:04
|
2025-01-17T08:43:56
|
2025-01-17T08:43:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pPRdNAZ22Z
|
Will the super heavy booster for Starship Flight 7 be caught?
|
It has to be caught by the tower. If it’s an offshore divert even if nothing is technically wrong with the booster it will resolve no. For example flight 5 would've resolved YES and flight 6 would've resolved NO.
If there is some kind of in between state where the booster is caught but not safely and is destroyed while still held by the catch arms that will resolve NO. (SN10 for reference)
If it is removed safely from the catch arms and then an issue occurs that will resolve YES.
|
2025-01-10T10:23:23
|
2025-01-16T17:38:49
|
2025-01-16T17:38:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U2Lcz85yct
|
RAS2025: Will the ECB cut rates by more than a quarter point in January 2025?
|
This RAS2025 market closes on end of 28 January 2025 CET. Resolves to yes if the ECB announces a cut of at least 50 basis points in at least one of its three key interest rates (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/mopo/html/index.en.html) after its governing council meeting end of January 2025.
|
2025-01-10T06:44:00
|
2025-01-28T14:59:59
|
2025-01-31T05:44:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tt00NhtZzp
|
RAS2025: Will Samsung feature smart glasses at the Unpacked event?
|
This RAS2025 market closes end of 21 January 2025 CET. Resolves to yes, if the Moohan project is previewed at the January 22 event.
|
2025-01-10T06:42:31
|
2025-01-21T14:59:59
|
2025-01-23T05:34:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UC2A66Rd2S
|
RAS2025: Will Trump reverse Bidens offshore drilling ban on his first day?
|
This RAS2025 market closes end of 19 January 2025 CET. Resolves to yes, if the White House reports an executive action overturning Bidens drilling ban (whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2025/01/06/memorandum-on-the-withdrawal-of-certain-areas-of-the-united-states-outer-continental-shelf-from-oil-or-natural-gas-leasing). For resolution, it does not matter whether or not such attempt is legally valid.
|
2025-01-10T06:38:57
|
2025-01-19T14:59:59
|
2025-01-21T05:56:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L2In850n9y
|
RAS2025: Will Microsoft close its Chinese AI lab?
|
This RAS2025 market closes end of 31 January 2025 CET (or when Microsoft announces closure, whichever is earlier). Resolves to yes, if Microsoft or a major news outlet announces closure of the Microsoft Research Lab Asia in Beijing by end of January. Resolves to No if no such decision is reported.
|
2025-01-10T06:38:01
|
2025-01-31T14:59:59
|
2025-02-03T01:14:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dR6tIN89Zd
|
RAS2025: Will The Brutalist be nominated for more than five Oscars categories?
|
This RAS2025 market closes on 18 January 2025 (or when the nomination lists are announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, whichever is earlier). Resolves to yes, if The Brutalists shows up in six or more Oscars categories. Oscars shortlists are posted on oscars.org/news
|
2025-01-10T06:19:18
|
2025-01-18T14:59:59
|
2025-01-23T05:59:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qUs8OPhI06
|
Will the cause of the Los Angeles fires be due to a terrorist attack?
|
Background Recent wildfires in Los Angeles have prompted investigations into their cause. While the fires have caused significant damage and evacuations, officials are currently conducting investigations to determine the origin. Natural factors such as powerful winds and dry conditions have been noted as contributing factors to the fires' spread.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
Official investigators (FBI, LAPD, Fire Department, or other relevant authorities) conclude that the fires were deliberately set as part of a terrorist attack
A terrorist organization claims responsibility AND this claim is verified by relevant authorities
This market will resolve NO if:
Investigators determine the cause was not terrorism-related (e.g., natural causes, accidents, non-terrorist arson)
The investigation concludes without finding evidence of terrorist involvement
No conclusion is reached by January 1, 2026
For resolution purposes, "terrorist attack" is defined as an act of arson committed with political, religious, or ideological motivations by an individual or group classified as terrorists by the U.S. government.
Considerations
Investigations into the causes of wildfires can take months or even years to complete
Initial reports and speculation about fire causes often prove incorrect as investigations progress
Claims of responsibility by terrorist organizations must be verified by authorities to count for resolution purposes
https://www.dni.gov/files/NCTC/documents/jcat/firstresponderstoolbox/124s_-_Mitigating_the_Threat_of_Terrorist-Initiated_Arson_Attacks_on_Wildland-Urban_Interface_Areas.pdf
|
2025-01-09T16:16:57
|
2025-02-06T23:46:36
|
2025-02-06T23:46:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-682z90du62
|
Will the Gulf of Mexico be renamed during the Trump presidency?
|
Resolution Criteria:
Definition of "Renamed":
The Gulf of Mexico will be considered "renamed" if its official name, as recognized by the United States federal government, is changed to a name different from "Gulf of Mexico."
Sources of Resolution:
Resolution will rely on official government documents, such as:
A formal proclamation or executive order from the President.
Legislative action passed by Congress and signed into law by the President.
Official updates to United States Geological Survey (USGS) or Department of the Interior documentation reflecting the new name.
Clarity of Change:
The new name must be explicitly declared as the official name of the body of water currently known as the Gulf of Mexico.
Informal, colloquial, or symbolic references (e.g., public nicknames, marketing campaigns) will not count.
Disqualification:
Proposals, discussions, or attempts to rename the Gulf of Mexico that do not result in a finalized change will not resolve as a "Yes."
Changes recognized only by non-U.S. entities, international organizations, or foreign governments will not count unless also formally adopted by the U.S. government.
Resolution:
YES: If the Gulf of Mexico is officially renamed by the U.S. federal government during the Trump presidency.
NO: If no such renaming occurs by the end of the Trump presidency.
|
2025-01-07T12:46:31
|
2025-01-21T10:43:37
|
2025-01-21T10:43:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZZA6tclSpt
|
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend Trump’s second inauguration?
|
Confirmed by news reports or reputable tweets
|
2025-01-07T07:06:04
|
2025-01-20T19:32:46
|
2025-01-20T19:32:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RN5cSLZ2E2
|
Will the next attempt to arrest South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol result in at least one (1) fatality?
|
Question resolves to "Yes" if consensus of credible reports state that:
South Korean law enforcement and / or armed forces have attempted to arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol (for the second time) which has resulted in at least one (1) fatality.
Reports must explicitly state that an arrest attempt was made on Yoon Suk Yeol.
The arrest attempt need not be successful.
The fatality must occur directly as a result of the arrest. Indirect fatalities do not count.
If it is reported that Yoon is in police custody and that no fatalities have occurred, this question will immediately resolve to "No".
The question will not resolve immediately after an arrest attempt is made to ensure that person(s) injured as a result of the arrest attempt do not succumb to their injuries.
In the event that Yoon Suk Yeol leaves his current location (his official residence - as of January 6, 2025) the question will remain open until he is in custody. If no attempt is made to arrest Yoon by December 31, 2025, the question will resolve to N/A.
|
2025-01-06T08:40:52
|
2025-01-15T10:37:07
|
2025-01-15T10:37:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hplNNh02pI
|
Will Justin Trudeau resign TODAY?
|
🚨Update: resolves YES if Trudeau ANNOUNCES his resignation today, even if he resigns after.
The Independent recently reported the headline Justin Trudeau - latest: Canadian prime minister ‘ready to resign’ as early as today over Trump tariff row.
If Justin Trudeau resigns from his position as Prime Minister of Canada before midnight on 6 January 2025 (Ottawa time, GMT-5), this market will resolve YES. Otherwise it will resolve NO. I will go off of reputable news sources (e.g. BBC).
I guarantee that this market will resolve soon enough.
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to YES if Justin Trudeau announces his resignation today.
Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
Update 2025-06-01 (PST): - Resolution: The market will resolve to YES unless any objections are raised. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2025-01-06T04:59:43
|
2025-01-06T08:11:42
|
2025-01-06T08:11:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uqhncN8ARN
|
Will the Minnesota Vikings plunder the LA Rams?
|
ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable.
|
2025-01-05T20:47:44
|
2025-01-13T20:20:30
|
2025-01-13T20:20:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uQcPAAhyRt
|
Bitcoin above $100K on Jan 21?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 21, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase BTC/USD price. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from Kraken and Bitstamp may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.
Additional Notes:
• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (12:00 AM - 11:59 PM PT) on January 21, 2025 will count towards resolution.
• If Bitcoin exceeds $100,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.
• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.
|
2025-01-05T18:42:44
|
2025-01-21T12:20:30
|
2025-01-21T12:20:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E2QIqlp8LC
|
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pillage the Washington Commanders?
|
ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable.
|
2025-01-05T17:49:50
|
2025-01-12T20:28:30
|
2025-01-12T20:28:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L2lSh9guNy
|
Will the Green Bay Packers ship out the Philadelphia Eagles?
|
ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable.
|
2025-01-05T17:48:17
|
2025-01-12T16:54:10
|
2025-01-12T16:54:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-28hhPQ9ZIE
|
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers hammer the Baltimore Ravens?
|
ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable.
|
2025-01-05T17:45:35
|
2025-01-11T20:01:16
|
2025-01-11T20:01:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dd6P0IyLAR
|
Will TikTok be banned in the United States for the majority of the population by the end of 2025?
|
This question is about the legislation impacting consumers before the end of 2025 (for the majority of Americans).
If TikTok is banned for the majority of Americans before the end of 2025 and some people were still accessing TikTok illegally in the US after the ban came into place then the market would resolve YES
If a bill is signed into law but is not yet impacting consumers (i.e. because it is held up in court) that would not count towards a YES because the ban would not yet be impacting consumers
If TikTok is banned in a way that impacted the majority of Americans before the end of 2025, for at least 7 consecutive days, then the market would resolve as a YES (even if TikTok was later re-instated)
|
2025-01-04T04:51:52
|
2025-01-29T21:35:41
|
2025-01-29T21:35:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hPqR8lgqLq
|
Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on Feb 20th?
|
Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated February 20th, 2025 (or next available data point after Feb 20th) on 538's approval tracker.
Such a page does not currently exist for Donald Trump's second term, but is expected to be published after inauguration. For reference, see past trackers https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ and https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/. If 538 does not publish a tracker by February 20th, a suitable alternative tracker will be used.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Data Source:
RCP (RealClearPolitics) will be used as the backup option if 538 does not maintain the presidential approval tracker.
For reference, RCP currently has Biden approval about 1% higher than 538.
Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Data Source Update:
The 538 approval tracker is now available: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/
|
2025-01-03T22:17:53
|
2025-02-20T23:59:00
|
2025-02-21T16:26:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IdNhPynhRC
|
Will Donald Trump order flags at full-mast, before the end of Jimmy Carter's 30 day mourning period?
|
Background Following Jimmy Carter's death on December 29, 2024, President Biden ordered flags to be flown at half-staff for the traditional 30-day mourning period, which extends until January 28, 2025. Trump's inauguration is scheduled for January 20, 2025, during this mourning period. Trump has made public comments expressing dissatisfaction about having flags at half-staff during his inauguration.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve as YES if Donald Trump, after taking office on January 20, 2025, issues an order to raise any flags to full-mast before January 28, 2025 (the end of Carter's 30-day mourning period). The market will resolve as NO if flags remain at half-staff through January 28, 2025.
Considerations
While the President has the authority to modify flag protocols, such changes during a former president's mourning period would be unprecedented
The resolution will be based on official White House proclamations or verified changes to flag positions at federal buildings
The U.S. flag being flown at full-mast on any federal building for at least one day before the end of Jimmy Carter's 30-day mourning period, at the credibly reported direction of Donald Trump (or any of his subordinates), will qualify as a YES.
|
2025-01-03T19:29:56
|
2025-01-20T12:21:25
|
2025-01-20T12:21:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-szsuZ26tUQ
|
Will Starship Flight 7 fly before New Glenn’s Maiden flight?
|
Which rocket will lift off first. It’s that simple if it gets off the pad first it counts. It’s a matter of days now so we will see. As of the making of this market New Glenn Maiden Flight leads with a scheduled launch time of Wednesday January 8th 2025 and Starship Flight 7 trailing at Friday January 10th 2025.
|
2025-01-03T11:14:24
|
2025-01-16T03:57:27
|
2025-01-16T03:57:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5uyS0h2zP8
|
Will South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol be in police custody before February 1, 2025?
|
There is currently arrest warrant for insurrection as a result of Yoon briefly imposing martial law in late 2024 which was subsequently overturned by the South Korean government.
The previous attempt to arrest Yoon by South Korean anti-corruption investigators failed after a long stand-off between his security team.
Resolves to "Yes" on credible reports that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is in police custody before February 1, 2025*. Otherwise it will resolve to "No". Announcement of his intention to surrender is not sufficient to resolve to "Yes".
* (Jan 6 Clarification: Before January 31, 2025, 23:59 KST)
|
2025-01-03T03:26:26
|
2025-01-14T21:15:39
|
2025-01-14T21:15:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zzdglSh5Up
|
Bitcoin above $96K on Jan 10th?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $96,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 10, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Coinbase BTC/USD price. In the event of any discrepancies or outages, data from Kraken and Bitstamp may be used as secondary sources to verify the price.
Additional Notes:
• Only the price recorded within the exact time window (12:00 AM - 11:59 PM PT) on January 10, 2025 will count towards resolution.
• If Bitcoin exceeds $96,000 outside of this time frame, it will not influence the market outcome.
• This market will resolve immediately if the criteria are met, without waiting until the end of the day.
|
2025-01-02T21:45:20
|
2025-01-10T23:59:00
|
2025-01-11T07:32:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LPAnP5yq0S
|
Will the FBI conclude that the Trump Hotel Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion was a terrorist attack by February 1st 2025?
|
Will the FBI officially conclude that the January 1st 2025 Tesla Cybertruck explosion at Trump International Hotel Las Vegas was a terrorist attack by February 1st 2025?
Resolution criteria: Official FBI statement or press release classifying the incident as terrorism. N/A if no official conclusion is reached by resolution date.
Sources:
FBI investigation details: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/01/us/cybertruck-fire-trump-hotel-las-vegas/index.html
|
2025-01-02T17:49:34
|
2025-01-31T16:00:00
|
2025-02-04T19:51:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c0du9q6hCl
|
Will Severance Season 2 surpass the critical acclaim of Season 1?
|
Will Severance Season 2 surpass the critical acclaim of Season 1?
Resolves to "Yes" if the:
% of positive critics' reviews ("Avg. Tomatometer") on Rotten Tomatoes is greater than 97%, OR
Metacritic weighted-average score ("Metascore") is greater than 83.
The question will resolve on January 24 - one week after the planned January 17 released date - whereby the scoring on both sites will be accessed at any time during that date and used to resolve the question.
|
2025-01-02T02:48:01
|
2025-01-24T05:45:12
|
2025-01-24T05:45:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dIsu8p5pct
|
Bitcoin dips below $80K in Q1?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin’s price dips below $80,000 at any point during Q1 2025 (January 1, 2025 – March 31, 2025).
• The price will be determined based on the Coinbase BTC/USD spot price.
• A 1-minute candlestick where the low is below $80,000 will trigger a “Yes” resolution.
If Bitcoin does not dip below $80,000 during this period, the market will resolve to “No” at 11:59 PM PST on March 31, 2025.
|
2025-01-01T20:47:34
|
2025-02-27T19:11:12
|
2025-02-27T19:11:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R5OnzCquc8
|
FBI confirms direct connection between New Orleans truck attack and Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion by February 1, 2025
|
Will investigations confirm a direct connection between the January 1st New Orleans truck attack that killed 15 people and the Las Vegas Trump Hotel Cybertruck explosion?
Market resolves YES if the FBI or other lead investigative agencies officially confirm a direct connection between the two incidents by January 31, 2025. Market resolves NO if agencies confirm no connection or if no connection is confirmed by resolution date.
References:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-orleans-vehicle-crash-bourbon-street-crowd-casualties-shooting/
https://abc7.com/post/trump-tower-fire-police-investigating-vehicle-explosion-las-vegas-nevada-hotel-driver-dead/15737979/
|
2025-01-01T16:02:38
|
2025-02-01T16:00:00
|
2025-02-02T16:17:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z05s2IIuUp
|
OpenAI demos an AI model for 'computer use' in January 2025
|
This market resolves YES if OpenAI publicly demonstrates an AI model specifically designed for computer use/control during January 2025. Resolution will be based on official OpenAI demonstrations, press releases, and public announcements.
References:
https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/openais-next-giant-breakthrough-tipped-to-land-soon-and-control-your-computer
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Updating existing models (e.g., GPT-4o) to enhance computer use will satisfy the resolution criteria.
It is not necessary to train a brand new model from scratch.
|
2025-01-01T14:12:37
|
2025-01-23T10:10:21
|
2025-01-23T10:10:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q0L2IQlIq5
|
FBI officially classifies New Orleans truck attack as terrorism by January 31st 2025
|
Will the FBI officially classify the January 1st, 2025 New Orleans truck attack as an act of terrorism by January 31st, 2025?
Market resolves based on official FBI statements or press releases confirming the classification.
References:
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-statement-on-the-attack-in-new-orleans
|
2025-01-01T09:47:28
|
2025-01-30T16:00:00
|
2025-02-02T16:16:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0QPsPRgd82
|
Will Penn State football defeat Notre Dame on January 9?
|
This market will resolve to YES if Penn State defeats Notre Dame during its football game on January 9, 2025, to N/A if the game is not completed by January 20, 2025, and to NO otherwise.
|
2025-01-01T07:32:05
|
2025-01-09T20:59:00
|
2025-01-10T05:46:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5PEOQNELLQ
|
Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" be revealed in January?
|
This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before January 31st, 2025 at 11:59PM PST.
A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling the original Switch's reveal trailer would qualify, but something such as a social media posting showing a visual of the system and its name would resolve to YES as well.
There are other markets covering this, but this market serves the purpose of a higher liquidity YES/NO.
|
2025-01-01T06:38:09
|
2025-01-16T06:00:21
|
2025-01-16T06:00:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tcpZd8RNln
|
Will anyone die with H5 bird flu in the US in 2025?
|
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - The term with refers to any death occurring in individuals who are infected with H5 bird flu, regardless of whether H5 bird flu is the direct cause of death. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2025-01-01T04:20:28
|
2025-01-06T15:01:55
|
2025-01-06T15:01:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I2qSdh92En
|
Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2025?
|
Commercial airplanes nearly crashed 46 times in June 2023, according to NY Times reporting on FAA safety documents.
FAA hosts a public database of such incidents. Wikipedia lists fatal commercial aircraft accidents in the US.
an "airliner crash"
excludes non-commercial aviation, e.g. military, private jets, charter flights
only includes airliners; e.g. excludes helicopters, small planes
must involve a "crash," so excludes events like the 2022 Montgomery incident
Update 2025-22-01 (PST): - Public charter operators that sell seats to the public and operate flights in the normal manner are considered commercial aviation and are included in the resolution criteria. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2025-01-01T00:07:19
|
2025-01-30T02:21:18
|
2025-01-30T02:21:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IOIqdq06R0
|
Will Joe Biden express regret about dropping out before the end of 2025 [video evidence]?
|
Will there be video evidence strongly implying that Joe Biden regrets dropping out of the presidential race, before the end of 2025?
Some things that would make this resolve YES:
Biden says he would have won had he been the nominee
Biden says it was a mistake to drop out
If nothing like this comes out, resolves NO at the end of 2025.
Things that wouldn't count (not direct enough):
Biden says top Democrats shouldn't have put pressure on him to drop out
Biden says he wasn't too old to run
I will not bet here.
|
2024-12-30T08:22:58
|
2025-01-10T20:54:39
|
2025-01-18T10:18:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tOCgpzgthI
|
Will Erling Haaland have at least 20 Premier League goals in the 2024-25 season by the end of February 2025?
|
Resolves YES if Haaland has 20 or more goals (including 20) this season in the Premier League at any point before the end of February 2025. Resolves NO if this hasn't happened and Manchester City have played all of their Premier League matches scheduled before the end of February.
Data Source: https://www.premierleague.com/players/65970/Erling-Haaland/stats?co=1&se=719
|
2024-12-29T09:30:10
|
2025-02-28T10:53:51
|
2025-02-28T10:53:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Zy9gcUQzs0
|
Will Biden pardon SBF?
|
Resolves identically to https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-biden-pardon/will-biden-pardon-sbf-this-term
[link preview]
|
2024-12-29T04:37:14
|
2025-01-20T02:59:00
|
2025-01-20T17:27:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c6c8EphOzd
|
Will Donald Trump have a net favorable rating on Jan 20 2025?
|
Resolution source is https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ . A net approval of 0 resolves NO.
Resolves on 20 Jan 0900h UTC
|
2024-12-27T22:19:34
|
2025-01-20T03:51:29
|
2025-01-20T03:51:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QlhQEtsRLP
|
Will Trump express intent to run for a third term while he is president, before the end of Febuary 2025?
|
Any expression of intent counts, even if it is "obviously a joke", e.g. a Tweet saying "Who knows? Maybe I will run in 2028." counts.
Must be after inaguration.
Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - Corrected February 2024 to February 2025 as the market closing date. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-12-27T13:30:09
|
2025-01-28T13:37:35
|
2025-01-28T13:37:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6N6Ogd9LLS
|
Biden pardons Sam Bankman-Fried?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph R. Biden Jr. grants a full, partial, or conditional pardon to Sam Bankman-Fried by January 21, 2025, at 11:59 PM PST.
Conditions for Resolution:
• The pardon must be officially announced through White House communications, the Department of Justice, or listed on the official pardon list.
• Any commutation of sentence, clemency, or reduction in sentence will not qualify unless explicitly referred to as a pardon.
Exclusions:
• State-level pardons or dismissals do not qualify.
• Legal appeals, retrials, or overturned convictions will not trigger a “Yes” resolution.
Primary Sources:
• Official White House statements, DOJ publications, or credible media outlets reporting the pardon.
If no pardon is granted by January 21, 2025, the market will resolve to “No.”
|
2024-12-24T20:12:31
|
2025-01-21T23:59:00
|
2025-01-22T00:04:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-959c58CLgP
|
Will Bill Clinton outlive Jimmy Carter?
|
Resolves when either Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter dies
|
2024-12-23T14:05:30
|
2024-12-29T13:09:48
|
2024-12-29T13:09:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n5S55Syd9c
|
Will Magnus Carlsen repeat in 2024 as the FIDE World Blitz Champion?
|
This market predicts whether Magnus Carlsen will successfully defend his World Blitz Championship title this December at the 2024 FIDE World Rapid and Blitz Championships.
Resolution will be based on the official tournament results.
https://worldrapidandblitz2024.fide.com/schedule/
https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/magnus-carlsen-leads-wr-chess-to-blitz-victory-at-fide-championships-in-astana/
Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Even if the title is shared, Magnus Carlsen will be considered the World Blitz Champion.
|
2024-12-23T13:05:54
|
2024-12-31T16:11:33
|
2024-12-31T16:11:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6ug6qP0pt9
|
Trudeau out before April?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Justin Trudeau:
• Announces his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada, OR
• Ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time between December 22, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive).
If Trudeau announces his resignation but remains in office beyond March 31, 2025, the market will still resolve to “Yes” immediately upon the announcement.
Resolution Source:
• Primary source: Official statements from Justin Trudeau or the Government of Canada.
• Secondary: Consensus from credible media outlets and reporting.
If no such announcement or change occurs by the end of the timeframe, the market will resolve to “No.”
|
2024-12-22T16:14:11
|
2025-01-06T08:57:56
|
2025-01-06T08:57:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c9stt6LEPu
|
Will Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear program before Trump’s inauguration?
|
In order for market to resolve YES, the attack must be a significant operation to either destroy or incapacitate nuclear capabilities of Iran. Any means of attack will count, including sabotage. If responsibility is not directly claimed, news reports by major news organizations will be used to assess. Market closes midnight, Jan 19th.
Update 2024-24-12 (PST): - Resolution criteria start date: From the date of market opening (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-12-22T11:11:49
|
2025-01-20T09:47:14
|
2025-01-20T09:47:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OylE9tuN9n
|
Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February?
|
Google currently leads with Gemini -- which has two models at around 1370
[image]But OpenAI just announced O3 -- which is getting great marks on things like hard science questions.
https://deepnewz.com/ai-modeling/openai-unveils-o3-o3-mini-models-exceeding-human-performance-on-arc-agi-4f05e4f7
[image]The resolution is simple. Will and LMSys update contain a model with 1400 ELO? Cutoff is last day in January (East Coast time).
Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - Resolution Criteria Update:
The resolution will be based on the information available on the website on February 1st. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-12-20T10:57:51
|
2025-02-01T09:03:45
|
2025-02-01T09:03:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pLE2ldQ6ZZ
|
Will any AI reach 20%+ performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2026?
|
The best performance by an AI system on FrontierMath as of December 31st 2026.
[image]Which AI systems count?
Any AI system counts if it operates within realistic deployment constraints and doesn't have unfair advantages over human baseliners.
Tool assistance, scaffolding, and any other inference-time elicitation techniques are permitted as long as:
There is no systematic unfair advantage over the humans described in the Human Performance section (e.g. AI systems are allowed to have multiple outputs autograded while humans aren't, or AI systems have access to the internet when humans don't).
Having the AI system complete the task does not use more compute than could be purchased with the wages needed to pay a human to complete the same task to the same level
The PASS@k elicitation technique (which automatically grades and chooses the best out of k outputs from a model) is a common example that we do not accept on this benchmark because mathematicians are generally evaluated on their ability to generate a single correct answer, not multiple answers to be automatically graded. So PASS@k would consititute an unfair advantage.
If there is evidence of training contamination leading to substantially increased performance, scores will be accordingly adjusted or disqualified.
(Much of the resolution is modified from AI Digest's excellent
@/Manifold/what-will-be-the-best-performance-o-A58Ld8LZZL )
|
2024-12-19T03:19:49
|
2025-01-01T12:31:42
|
2025-01-01T12:31:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8hI5AEPRL0
|
Will Tesla(NASDAQ(TSLA)) have a significant drawdown (>40%) in 2025?
|
I will take the dates from "investing.com", if in 2025 will be a drawdown of 40% or more i will resolve for YES, otherwise i will resolve for NO.
|
2024-12-16T03:14:01
|
2025-03-10T14:13:27
|
2025-03-10T14:13:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NpILIcROR9
|
Will the Chiefs score more than 30 points in a game this season?
|
This market includes both regular season and post season games.
All points scored in a game (the final score) count
YES: Over 30 points scored in a game
NO: 30 points or less scored in a game
|
2024-12-15T10:43:36
|
2025-01-26T18:41:50
|
2025-01-26T18:41:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rn5SZSI80q
|
Will a disaster occur related to the "drones" before end of 2024?
|
The US government's official stance on the spreading drones is that "there is no evidence they pose a threat." So, are they telling the truth, or, is the statement carefully worded to only be true about the drones themselves?
This market will resolve to YES if one hundred or more people are killed in an incident related to the "drones." Such disasters may include:
The drones themselves deploy weapons and kill people
The drones are searching for something bad that causes casualties
The drones are from an adversary who declares war or they cause retaliation
The drones create panic and riots
Otherwise, if time expires, it will resolve to NO.
Update 2024-15-12 (PST): - A disaster will count as YES if it involves casualties from people interfering with aircraft they believe to be drones (e.g. shooting at them, pointing lasers at them), even if the aircraft were not actually drones (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-16-12 (PST): Casualties includes both deaths and injuries, but must occur in one distinct single incident to qualify for YES resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-12-14T16:10:22
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:25:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ztdnPqSpS8
|
Will non-human intelligence become a leading "mainstream media" theory for the cause of the "drones" before end of 2024?
|
Some news outlets have just begun to seriously consider the theory that non-human intelligence is responsible for some of the UFO sightings in New Jersey and elsewhere around the world. I've also noticed that more of my comments supporting this hypothesis are receiving likes and upvotes than they did a week ago. Will this finally break through to become a leading theory?
This market will resolve to YES if, before December 31, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EST, the New York Times, CNN, ABC, NBC, or CBS (specifically excluding Fox and MSNBC) posts an article as its front page headline, or leads its Nightly News show with a segment suggesting or investigating this theory.
"Drones generating mass panic" is not sufficient. "X presents three leading theories for drones" is not sufficient. "Non-human intelligence (or any similar term) being investigated as cause of drones" is sufficient. These must be the headlines or first paragraph or first statements in the reporting of the leading breaking news story on one outlet. NHI cannot just be discussed or dismissed as one possible theory later in a segment or article.
It is not necessary for non-human intelligence to actually be confirmed to as the cause of any sightings for a YES resolution.
A YES resolution is possible if this headline refers to any sightings that have occurred after November 1, 2024 at any location on or near Earth. Reports about life being discovered through a telescope on another planet are specifically excluded.
|
2024-12-14T10:47:52
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:22:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZlI2ZsZNzU
|
Will any of the three flat earth participants on "The Final Experiment" renounce their belief in flat earth before 2026?
|
TFE is an experiment where flat and globe earthers are traveling to Antarctica to see if the 24 hour sun is real or not. Resolves yes of any of the flat earth participants (Jeran Campanella, Sean Griffin, or Austin Whitsitt) makes a sincere statement renouncing their belief in flat earth before 2026.
https://www.the-final-experiment.com/participants
Update 2024-15-12 (PST): Lisbeth Acosta is also included as a flat earth participant whose potential renouncement would qualify for a YES resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-19-12 (PST): A YES resolution requires an explicit endorsement of the globe Earth model. Simply acknowledging specific evidence (like the 24-hour sun) while still expressing doubt about the Earth being a sphere is not sufficient for a YES resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-12-14T09:23:18
|
2025-03-08T10:09:01
|
2025-03-08T10:09:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-phUuQtS0hP
|
If Pete Hegseth is nominated for Secretary of Defense, will John Fetterman vote to confirm him?
|
Resolves based on the first nominee to the office who receives a Senate vote. Resolves N/A if Hegseth is not the nominee.
|
2024-12-13T19:18:11
|
2025-01-24T18:23:12
|
2025-01-24T18:23:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gNUURzzuSI
|
Will Trump ever have a net positive approval rating? (Read Description)
|
BEGINNING 2 WEEKS AFFER HE IS INAUGURATED - I.E., BEGINNING FEBRUARY 3RD, 2025.
DECIDED BY REALCLEARPOLITICS AVERAGE.
Last term, his approval rating went underwater February 1st, 2017 and never surfaced. Joe Biden’s went underwater August 23rd, 2021 and never surfaced.
If RCP shuts down for whatever reason, then decided by 538’s average.
Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Detail:
The market will only resolve if a RealClearPolitics average for February 3rd (2/3) is available.
The current data (average covering 1/20–1/30) will not be used; the resolution depends on being able to hover over the graph and pinpoint the average for 2/3.
Resolution will occur as soon as the February 3rd average is clearly posted.
Update 2025-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Poll Data Clarification:
The resolution requires using the RealClearPolitics poll average for February 3rd.
If an exact February 3rd average is not identifiable, a poll average from a period beginning on or after February 3rd will be used.
A graph based on emerging poll data will be generated once enough polls have been accumulated.
|
2024-12-13T08:43:39
|
2025-02-20T07:23:24
|
2025-02-20T07:23:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pP0u5Cpp2n
|
Will Trump order an end to birthright citizenship within 72h of being president?
|
Update 2024-13-12 (PST): Market will resolve based on whether Trump issues an executive order to end birthright citizenship, regardless of whether the order is upheld in court. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-12-12T21:21:59
|
2025-01-21T19:12:47
|
2025-01-21T19:12:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S00cLNgtcA
|
At least one Trump Cabinet Member confirmed by Senate on January 20, 2025
|
This market resolves based on whether any Trump Cabinet nominees receive Senate confirmation on Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025).
Resolution will be based on official Senate confirmation votes and reporting from major news sources.
|
2024-12-12T13:02:39
|
2025-01-20T16:00:00
|
2025-01-20T18:06:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ONNI9qZgPu
|
Will Lula still be President of Brazil on March 1st 2025? 🇧🇷🗳️
|
Lula, age 79, is to undergo a "minor" brain surgery on Thursday December 12th -- his second brain surgery this month.
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/brazil-s-lula-to-undergo-low-risk-brain-procedure-thursday-after-emergency-1787368b
[image]While Lula is not due for another election until 2026, and other Manifold markets have him as a 60% favorite to seek re-election in 2026, as an 81 year old (!) -- there is no such thing as "minor surgery" for someone his age. Especially a second brain surgery. Which is a complication from a fall he took in October.
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/lula-remains-charge-despite-icu-stay-surgical-intervention-looms-alckmin-duties-bafe5b52
Instead of betting on his health -- and best wishes to Lula there -- let's have a market as to whether he will still be President of Brazil in a couple of months.
Barring unexpected caveats, resolution should be simple. If Lula is President of Brazil on midnight New York time, March 1st 2025 this will resolve YES.
If he steps down -- due to health or any other reason -- then the market will resolve NO.
I don't know the intricacies of Brazilian constitutional law. But if he remains President but is in a coma (for example) -- then that will also resolve as NO -- since Vice President Alckmin would have necessarily taken over. We are talking about Woodrow Wilson 25th Amendment type stuff.
[image]But if Lula is in a Biden-like state -- conscious, active, alive, but a bit "checked out" as President... that will still resolve as a YES.
If he takes an extended vacation but remains President that will resolve in YES.
If he is in a coma, it will resolve as NO.
We will deal with fine distinctions between those cases if they become relevant.
For example, Presidential health nerds will remember that George W Bush underwent heart surgery while President -- he got a stent put in. While he was under anesthesia, Cheney was acting President. But clearly that did not count as Bush stepping down.
Had Bush went into a coma... Cheney would be acting US President... for real now. He would be setting policy. There would be a debate as to whether Bush needs to step aside or what happens if we wakes up. But regardless of those conversations, Cheney would have been President. Similar case here.
Let's hope Lula has a successful operation and a speedy recovery. Whether or not he steps down afterward.
I will be betting this market.
|
2024-12-11T23:53:22
|
2025-03-02T20:59:00
|
2025-03-04T14:27:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qyuIS9RZ9O
|
Will Xi Jinping attend Trump’s inauguration?
|
Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his presidential inauguration scheduled for January 20. While the invitation has been extended, Xi has not yet publicly confirmed whether he will attend.
The market will resolve YES if Xi Jinping physically attends Donald Trump's presidential inauguration ceremony in person. The market will resolve NO if Xi Jinping does not attend the inauguration in person, for any reason.
|
2024-12-11T15:17:11
|
2025-01-19T16:30:18
|
2025-01-19T16:30:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2PAgz5In6O
|
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
|
Resolves YES if Liz Cheney receives any form of presidential pardon issued by Joe Biden during his first term. Otherwise, resolves NO when the next president takes office.
Resolves YES even if Liz Cheney chooses to "reject" the pardon.
|
2024-12-11T08:32:13
|
2025-01-19T23:59:00
|
2025-01-20T07:50:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ANAqtcQdlE
|
Will Donald Trump be attacked again?
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump is physically attacked or threatened between December 10, 2024 and January 20, 2025 (at 11:59 PM Eastern Time). Resolves N/A if Trump is attacked or threatened, but the person (or at least one of the people, if multiple) has ever made a bet on Manifold, or a close associate of someone else who has ever made a bet on Manifold. Resolves N/A if Trump dies before January 20, 2025 but not because he was physically attacked. Resolves NO on January 21, 2025 otherwise.
In 2024 alone, he has been threatened thrice: once on July 13, the second time on September 15, the third time on October 12. There are also many other prior incidents: see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_incidents_involving_Donald_Trump f
or a more complete list
[link preview]EDIT: clarify resolution timeline
EDIT 2: add anti-assassination-market clause
|
2024-12-09T23:38:17
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:01:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N2OLyZRIg0
|
Trump administration implements ending birthright citizenship by February 1, 2025, in a policy or signed bill.
|
This market resolves YES if there is an official announcement or proposal from the Trump administration regarding the end of birthright citizenship by February 1, 2025. Resolution will be based on official White House statements, press releases, or legislative proposals.
References:
https://www.niskanencenter.org/project-2025-unveiling-the-far-rights-plan-to-demolish-immigration-in-a-second-trump-term/
Update 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will only resolve YES if there is concrete action beyond just announcements or statements, specifically:
A signed bill
An executive order
A signed policy change
|
2024-12-09T12:05:28
|
2025-01-21T09:06:53
|
2025-01-21T09:06:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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