id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-ldPUOQlQUz | Will Trump be Nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Will Donald Trump be nominated to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year? Nominations are due by the end of January. The market will resolve by Feb 28 or whenever they are announced, whichever is sooner. If there are no announcements it will resolve N/A.
Note: if one of the people who can make nominations announces that ... | 2025-01-24T17:20:45 | 2025-02-05T06:40:33 | 2025-02-05T06:40:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uQCZ2EEuZt | Bitcoin above $105K on Feb 7? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $105,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on Feb 7, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The primar... | 2025-01-24T02:16:29 | 2025-02-07T23:59:00 | 2025-02-08T09:40:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-INNdg6nsh2 | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31257)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point after January 10, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, semaglutide is not listed as "Currently in Shortage" on the FDA's drug shorta... | 2025-01-22T14:28:29 | 2025-03-03T18:22:47 | 2025-03-03T18:22:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UhnlC6y5hU | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31348)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, during calendar year 2025, the United States federal government releases any previously unreleased documents from any federal court case (cri... | 2025-01-22T12:36:21 | 2025-03-03T16:08:20 | 2025-03-03T16:08:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dtuS82zIOO | Will Google Maps still say Gulf of Mexico at the end of February? | resolves yes if the name is gulf of mexico and not gulf of america or any other variation
i will be checking from nyc at a random time on that day (later in the afternoon) and checking from usa ip
[image] | 2025-01-22T11:05:54 | 2025-02-28T20:59:00 | 2025-03-06T19:03:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zh6CCnt0LA | Will the total points scored on Championship Sunday exceed 95.5? | ℹ The sum of the final scores for both teams in each game. If a game goes to overtime, points scored in overtime are included in the total.
YES: 96 or more total points
NO: 95 or less total points
Example: If the Commanders vs. Eagles game ends 30-27 and the Bills vs. Chiefs game ends 28-24, the combined total point... | 2025-01-21T21:31:41 | 2025-01-26T18:42:23 | 2025-01-26T18:42:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gEQygUsypE | Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok iOS app is available for download on the US Apple App Store between Jan 19, 7:30 PM and January 24, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, it will still be considered av... | 2025-01-21T16:31:25 | 2025-01-24T02:59:00 | 2025-01-25T09:12:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0NAQyAO9sd | [💣] Will a senator switch party affiliation before 1/28? | [image]Based on this tweet. Doesn't have to be Dem -> Rep, just any party swap. Independent swaps have to caucus with a different party; i.e. a dem swapping to "independent but caucuses with dems" would not count. | 2025-01-21T12:50:38 | 2025-01-27T20:59:59 | 2025-01-27T21:24:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z8l9ZA0INE | Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Mexico by the end of February? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2025-01-20T21:22:51 | 2025-02-27T18:32:00 | 2025-03-05T06:43:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p9g8CdAES8 | Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Canada by the end of February? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2025-01-20T21:22:33 | 2025-02-27T18:32:00 | 2025-03-06T16:31:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dc50PgEl0g | Bitcoin above $100K on Jan 31? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 31, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The p... | 2025-01-20T16:34:13 | 2025-01-31T01:06:19 | 2025-01-31T01:06:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P2Uy69OddN | Will Google Maps display "Gulf of America" in place of "Gulf of Mexico" before 2026? | Background The Gulf of Mexico is a major body of water bordered by the United States, Mexico, and Cuba. In recent years, there have been occasional proposals to rename it to "Gulf of America," though no official changes have been approved by international governing bodies or mapping authorities.
Resolution Criteria Th... | 2025-01-20T15:43:15 | 2025-02-10T16:42:36 | 2025-02-10T16:42:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-shusCqNdRt | Will the Buffalo Bills trample the Kansas City Chiefs? | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2025-01-19T18:38:31 | 2025-01-26T18:52:39 | 2025-01-26T18:52:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s8ENOdU8cP | Will Trump sign 100+ executive orders on Day One? | Resolves YES if Trump signs 100 or more executive orders on January 20th.
Source: https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders
For reference, in 2017, Trump only signed a single executive order. However, some rumors claim that he will sign 200+ (!!!) executive orders on his first day.
[t... | 2025-01-19T17:36:12 | 2025-01-20T23:59:00 | 2025-01-29T08:40:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lpOdRgdsgl | Will the Washington Commanders conquer the Philadelphia Eagles? | ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-19T17:28:30 | 2025-01-26T15:41:01 | 2025-01-26T15:41:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hq9utlgEUA | NCAAF National Championship 🏈 Will Ohio State win by double digits against Notre Dame? | Ohio St vs Notre Dame
Kickoff 07:30 PM EST 1/20/25 | 2025-01-19T15:17:43 | 2025-01-20T20:11:43 | 2025-01-20T20:11:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pqpC5ZSpPN | Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift at the 2025 Super Bowl? | This market will resolve YES if Travis Kelce proposes marriage to Taylor Swift during the 2025 Super Bowl, including pre-game, during the game, or post-game celebrations on the same day, in the immediate vicinity of the stadium. The proposal must be verified by credible media sources or direct confirmation from either ... | 2025-01-19T15:03:35 | 2025-02-10T03:39:29 | 2025-02-10T03:39:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QqtR9NUUhO | Will another member of the Trump Family release a self-styled cryptocurrency "meme" token before March 1, 2025? | As of January 19, 2025, both Trump and Melania have released self-styled "meme" tokens - $TRUMP and $MELANIA.
NFTs do not count. | 2025-01-19T13:21:48 | 2025-03-09T03:56:33 | 2025-03-09T03:56:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R2Us9Nl8S8 | Will $Trump coin (Official Trump) get to a fully diluted valuation of $100 billion by January 21? | This market will resolve YES if $Trump coin (Official Trump) gets to $100 billion in fully diluted valuation (not market capitalization) before January 21st (midnight EST).
It is currently at a $59.39 billion fully diluted valuation.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/official-trump
I will trade this market but w... | 2025-01-19T01:17:03 | 2025-01-20T21:38:15 | 2025-01-20T21:38:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h2pdlsupZc | SpaceX Starship Flight 8 lands successfully without destruction by April 1st, 2025 | Following Flight 7's upper stage destruction due to a propellant leak, this market predicts whether the next Starship test (Flight 8) will achieve a successful landing without destruction of either stage. Resolution criteria: Market resolves YES if both stages of Starship complete their mission profiles without destruc... | 2025-01-17T20:14:07 | 2025-03-08T21:43:52 | 2025-03-08T21:43:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0CEOunlc9d | Will Georgia unsuspend any poultry activity before February? | This PR just came out from Georgia
[image]This market resolve yes as soon as a new PR by the Georgia Department of Agriculture or a similarly official announcement comes out which allows any of the currently suspended poultry activities to resume.
This market resolves No if by Jan 31st 23:59 EST all poultry activity ... | 2025-01-17T16:48:28 | 2025-01-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-07T14:03:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t2LRSSIg90 | Will the "last minute" breakdown of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire last until January 31, 2025? | As per Bloomberg:
Hamas has reneged on parts of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release deal that was already agreed upon, and is creating a last-minute crisis that prevents the completion of the accord, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said.
The Israeli cabinet will not convene to approve the deal u... | 2025-01-16T01:23:53 | 2025-01-19T04:55:48 | 2025-01-19T04:55:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nyyg5h8s25 | Bitcoin above $98K on Jan 24th? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $98,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 24, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The pr... | 2025-01-15T23:22:25 | 2025-01-24T00:50:02 | 2025-01-24T00:50:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sUuCqZ9OR0 | Israel strike on Iran by Feb 1 | This market will resolve YES if Israel conducts a military strike against Iranian territory or Iranian nuclear facilities before Feb 1, 2025. This includes:
Direct airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force
Special forces operations
Missile strikes
Drone strikes
The market will resolve NO if no strike occurs by Feb 1, 20... | 2025-01-15T14:31:18 | 2025-01-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-01T08:59:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ApZ0tN5Qy8 | Will Bernie Sanders vote Yes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard? | Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Yes votes include both Yes and Yea. | 2025-01-15T13:18:43 | 2025-02-25T09:52:17 | 2025-02-25T09:52:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NZgqzgtuCs | Will the first day of the ceasefire (January 19, 2025) pass with zero Israeli airstrikes on Gaza? | Background A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached after extensive negotiations, set to begin on January 19, 2025. This marks a potential pause in the 15-month conflict. In the days leading up to the agreement, Israeli airstrikes continued in Gaza, with strikes reported even as negotiations were... | 2025-01-15T12:32:22 | 2025-01-20T01:53:24 | 2025-01-20T01:53:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LZqRChOl9P | Will Biden pardon anyone in his final two days in office? | Previous presidents (especially Obama and Trump) have used their last day or two in office to issue a slew of last-minute pardons. Will Biden issue any on these final two days of his presidency?
Commutations do not count. Any pardons issued by Biden on January 19th or January 20th (eastern time) resolve this YES. Pard... | 2025-01-15T10:24:25 | 2025-01-19T18:50:09 | 2025-01-19T18:50:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AQLN6PqZdl | Will Trump's second inauguration address be >50% longer than his first inauguration address? (by word count) | Context: Trump has gotten much more loquacious as he ages, to put it mildly.
Resolution: I will use wordcounter.net, with a transcript posted to a .gov address, if available (otherwise I will substitute with the most reputable-seeming transcript I can find).
Here is the transcript for Trump's 2017 inauguration addre... | 2025-01-15T09:06:31 | 2025-01-19T23:59:00 | 2025-01-20T16:10:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OItNyCRg6h | Will Biden issue a preemptive pardon? | Resolves YES if Biden issues at least one pardon only for crime(s) for which the individual was not yet charged or convicted, before the end of Biden’s term.
Update 2025-14-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - YES requires Biden to issue a pardon only for crimes for which the individual has not been charged.
... | 2025-01-14T15:10:28 | 2025-01-20T07:28:38 | 2025-01-20T07:28:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6dSdlluqyd | Elon Musk addresses Path of Exile cheating rumours by end of February | resolves YES if Elon makes any kind of public statement directly addressing the rumours (confirming/denying/directly addressing)
Update 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only public statements that confirm, deny, or explicitly address the rumours will be considered as addressing them.
Deflection or... | 2025-01-14T06:15:05 | 2025-01-21T14:06:22 | 2025-01-21T14:06:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-czN0CqsNCd | Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the LA Rams? | ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-13T20:16:36 | 2025-01-19T15:17:46 | 2025-01-19T15:17:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C9Rp92NCUt | Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal before Trump’s inauguration? | Will consult major news sources as well as statements from Israel, Hamas, and mediating countries to determine whether a ceasefire deal has been agreed to by both sides. market closes on january 20th, 2025.
Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - Ceasefire Agreement: Any agreement between both sides that involves a cessation of h... | 2025-01-13T18:58:21 | 2025-01-18T07:50:18 | 2025-01-18T07:50:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hn6O9PUQN0 | Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the Buffalo Bills? | ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-13T13:26:15 | 2025-01-19T18:39:55 | 2025-01-19T18:39:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LL5uOE0L5p | Will the Washington Commanders conquer the Detroit Lions? | ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-13T13:25:09 | 2025-01-18T20:24:42 | 2025-01-18T20:24:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cIz8O8COg2 | Will the Nintendo switch successor console be revealed on January 16th of this year? | This will resolve YES if the switch successor is revealed on January 16th.
This is inclusive of a variety of timezones, as long as it is January the 16th somewhere in the world it will resolve YES. | 2025-01-13T09:42:50 | 2025-01-16T05:09:39 | 2025-01-16T05:09:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hLPEyRA8AU | Will the AfD receive >= 20% of votes in the 2025 German federal election? | Will the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party receive equal to or more than 20% of votes in the February 23, 2025 federal election?
In 2021, the AfD received 10.4% of votes. Current polling shows AfD at 19.9%. Resolution based on official results for second (party) votes.
Source: https://politpro.eu/en/germany, ht... | 2025-01-12T20:16:29 | 2025-02-25T16:00:00 | 2025-02-25T20:44:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yIs26sZ6I2 | Will Trump tour any areas damaged by the Los Angeles fires before February 1, 2025? | Will Trump tour any area of Los Angeles damaged by the recent fires?
Credible reports of Trump doing so before January 31, 2025 23:59 PST will resolve this question to "Yes".
Tour can be in any capacity (e.g., on foot, inside a vehicle or by helicopter) as long as the reports explicitly state that Trump is there in ... | 2025-01-12T11:58:57 | 2025-01-25T09:53:34 | 2025-01-25T09:53:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NSnAl2U56h | Will Lamar Jackson wins the MVP? | Background
Josh Allen is the quarterback for the Buffalo Bills and has been one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks since 2020. He has never won an MVP award but has received votes in previous seasons. The NFL MVP is voted on by a panel of 50 media members selected by the Associated Press.
Resolution Criteria
This market ... | 2025-01-12T10:15:28 | 2025-02-06T20:34:36 | 2025-02-06T20:34:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OPOquSLOcu | Will Josh Allen win the MVP? | Background
Josh Allen is the quarterback for the Buffalo Bills and has been one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks since 2020. He has never won an MVP award but has received votes in previous seasons. The NFL MVP is voted on by a panel of 50 media members selected by the Associated Press.
Resolution Criteria
This market ... | 2025-01-12T10:14:45 | 2025-02-06T20:34:49 | 2025-02-06T20:34:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zCEhRZdgRA | First working quantum circuit to factor 77 into 7 and 11 on IBM's cloud service published before March 1st, 2025 | This market resolves YES if someone publishes a working quantum circuit implementation that successfully factors 77 into 7 and 11 using IBM's cloud quantum computing service before March 1st, 2025. The implementation must be publicly available (e.g. on GitHub, arXiv, or similar platform) and verifiably demonstrate succ... | 2025-01-10T20:21:33 | 2025-01-13T19:34:26 | 2025-01-13T19:34:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Su5CLzPZZ8 | Will TikTok be meaningfully banned in the US on March 1, 2025? | A law requiring ByteDance (TikTok's Chinese parent company) to sell TikTok or face a ban in the United States is set to take effect on January 19, 2025. TikTok has appealed to the Supreme Court to block this law, arguing it violates the First Amendment and other constitutional provisions. The case is currently pending.... | 2025-01-10T17:18:12 | 2025-03-01T22:59:00 | 2025-03-01T23:10:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QRsPZsqgON | Bitcoin above $96K on Jan 17th? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $96,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 17, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The pr... | 2025-01-10T15:36:04 | 2025-01-17T08:43:56 | 2025-01-17T08:43:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pPRdNAZ22Z | Will the super heavy booster for Starship Flight 7 be caught? | It has to be caught by the tower. If it’s an offshore divert even if nothing is technically wrong with the booster it will resolve no. For example flight 5 would've resolved YES and flight 6 would've resolved NO.
If there is some kind of in between state where the booster is caught but not safely and is destroyed whi... | 2025-01-10T10:23:23 | 2025-01-16T17:38:49 | 2025-01-16T17:38:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U2Lcz85yct | RAS2025: Will the ECB cut rates by more than a quarter point in January 2025? | This RAS2025 market closes on end of 28 January 2025 CET. Resolves to yes if the ECB announces a cut of at least 50 basis points in at least one of its three key interest rates (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/mopo/html/index.en.html) after its governing council meeting end of January 2025. | 2025-01-10T06:44:00 | 2025-01-28T14:59:59 | 2025-01-31T05:44:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tt00NhtZzp | RAS2025: Will Samsung feature smart glasses at the Unpacked event? | This RAS2025 market closes end of 21 January 2025 CET. Resolves to yes, if the Moohan project is previewed at the January 22 event. | 2025-01-10T06:42:31 | 2025-01-21T14:59:59 | 2025-01-23T05:34:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UC2A66Rd2S | RAS2025: Will Trump reverse Bidens offshore drilling ban on his first day? | This RAS2025 market closes end of 19 January 2025 CET. Resolves to yes, if the White House reports an executive action overturning Bidens drilling ban (whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2025/01/06/memorandum-on-the-withdrawal-of-certain-areas-of-the-united-states-outer-continental-shelf-from-oil-or-natu... | 2025-01-10T06:38:57 | 2025-01-19T14:59:59 | 2025-01-21T05:56:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-L2In850n9y | RAS2025: Will Microsoft close its Chinese AI lab? | This RAS2025 market closes end of 31 January 2025 CET (or when Microsoft announces closure, whichever is earlier). Resolves to yes, if Microsoft or a major news outlet announces closure of the Microsoft Research Lab Asia in Beijing by end of January. Resolves to No if no such decision is reported. | 2025-01-10T06:38:01 | 2025-01-31T14:59:59 | 2025-02-03T01:14:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dR6tIN89Zd | RAS2025: Will The Brutalist be nominated for more than five Oscars categories? | This RAS2025 market closes on 18 January 2025 (or when the nomination lists are announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, whichever is earlier). Resolves to yes, if The Brutalists shows up in six or more Oscars categories. Oscars shortlists are posted on oscars.org/news | 2025-01-10T06:19:18 | 2025-01-18T14:59:59 | 2025-01-23T05:59:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qUs8OPhI06 | Will the cause of the Los Angeles fires be due to a terrorist attack? | Background Recent wildfires in Los Angeles have prompted investigations into their cause. While the fires have caused significant damage and evacuations, officials are currently conducting investigations to determine the origin. Natural factors such as powerful winds and dry conditions have been noted as contributing f... | 2025-01-09T16:16:57 | 2025-02-06T23:46:36 | 2025-02-06T23:46:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-682z90du62 | Will the Gulf of Mexico be renamed during the Trump presidency? | Resolution Criteria:
Definition of "Renamed":
The Gulf of Mexico will be considered "renamed" if its official name, as recognized by the United States federal government, is changed to a name different from "Gulf of Mexico."
Sources of Resolution:
Resolution will rely on official government documents, such as:
A for... | 2025-01-07T12:46:31 | 2025-01-21T10:43:37 | 2025-01-21T10:43:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZZA6tclSpt | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend Trump’s second inauguration? | Confirmed by news reports or reputable tweets | 2025-01-07T07:06:04 | 2025-01-20T19:32:46 | 2025-01-20T19:32:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RN5cSLZ2E2 | Will the next attempt to arrest South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol result in at least one (1) fatality? | Question resolves to "Yes" if consensus of credible reports state that:
South Korean law enforcement and / or armed forces have attempted to arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol (for the second time) which has resulted in at least one (1) fatality.
Reports must explicitly state that an arrest attempt was made on Yoon Suk ... | 2025-01-06T08:40:52 | 2025-01-15T10:37:07 | 2025-01-15T10:37:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hplNNh02pI | Will Justin Trudeau resign TODAY? | 🚨Update: resolves YES if Trudeau ANNOUNCES his resignation today, even if he resigns after.
The Independent recently reported the headline Justin Trudeau - latest: Canadian prime minister ‘ready to resign’ as early as today over Trump tariff row.
If Justin Trudeau resigns from his position as Prime Minister of Canad... | 2025-01-06T04:59:43 | 2025-01-06T08:11:42 | 2025-01-06T08:11:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uqhncN8ARN | Will the Minnesota Vikings plunder the LA Rams? | ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-05T20:47:44 | 2025-01-13T20:20:30 | 2025-01-13T20:20:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uQcPAAhyRt | Bitcoin above $100K on Jan 21? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 21, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The p... | 2025-01-05T18:42:44 | 2025-01-21T12:20:30 | 2025-01-21T12:20:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-E2QIqlp8LC | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pillage the Washington Commanders? | ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-05T17:49:50 | 2025-01-12T20:28:30 | 2025-01-12T20:28:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L2lSh9guNy | Will the Green Bay Packers ship out the Philadelphia Eagles? | ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-05T17:48:17 | 2025-01-12T16:54:10 | 2025-01-12T16:54:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-28hhPQ9ZIE | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers hammer the Baltimore Ravens? | ℹ YES if Team A wins. NO if Team B wins. Final winner after OT if applicable. | 2025-01-05T17:45:35 | 2025-01-11T20:01:16 | 2025-01-11T20:01:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dd6P0IyLAR | Will TikTok be banned in the United States for the majority of the population by the end of 2025? | This question is about the legislation impacting consumers before the end of 2025 (for the majority of Americans).
If TikTok is banned for the majority of Americans before the end of 2025 and some people were still accessing TikTok illegally in the US after the ban came into place then the market would resolve YES
I... | 2025-01-04T04:51:52 | 2025-01-29T21:35:41 | 2025-01-29T21:35:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hPqR8lgqLq | Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on Feb 20th? | Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated February 20th, 2025 (or next available data point after Feb 20th) on 538's approval tracker.
Such a page does not currently exist for Donald Trump's second term, but is expected to be published after inauguration. Fo... | 2025-01-03T22:17:53 | 2025-02-20T23:59:00 | 2025-02-21T16:26:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IdNhPynhRC | Will Donald Trump order flags at full-mast, before the end of Jimmy Carter's 30 day mourning period? | Background Following Jimmy Carter's death on December 29, 2024, President Biden ordered flags to be flown at half-staff for the traditional 30-day mourning period, which extends until January 28, 2025. Trump's inauguration is scheduled for January 20, 2025, during this mourning period. Trump has made public comments ex... | 2025-01-03T19:29:56 | 2025-01-20T12:21:25 | 2025-01-20T12:21:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-szsuZ26tUQ | Will Starship Flight 7 fly before New Glenn’s Maiden flight? | Which rocket will lift off first. It’s that simple if it gets off the pad first it counts. It’s a matter of days now so we will see. As of the making of this market New Glenn Maiden Flight leads with a scheduled launch time of Wednesday January 8th 2025 and Starship Flight 7 trailing at Friday January 10th 2025. | 2025-01-03T11:14:24 | 2025-01-16T03:57:27 | 2025-01-16T03:57:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5uyS0h2zP8 | Will South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol be in police custody before February 1, 2025? | There is currently arrest warrant for insurrection as a result of Yoon briefly imposing martial law in late 2024 which was subsequently overturned by the South Korean government.
The previous attempt to arrest Yoon by South Korean anti-corruption investigators failed after a long stand-off between his security team.
... | 2025-01-03T03:26:26 | 2025-01-14T21:15:39 | 2025-01-14T21:15:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zzdglSh5Up | Bitcoin above $96K on Jan 10th? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $96,000 at any point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PT on January 10, 2025.
The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price level during the specified time frame.
Resolution Source:
The pr... | 2025-01-02T21:45:20 | 2025-01-10T23:59:00 | 2025-01-11T07:32:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LPAnP5yq0S | Will the FBI conclude that the Trump Hotel Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion was a terrorist attack by February 1st 2025? | Will the FBI officially conclude that the January 1st 2025 Tesla Cybertruck explosion at Trump International Hotel Las Vegas was a terrorist attack by February 1st 2025?
Resolution criteria: Official FBI statement or press release classifying the incident as terrorism. N/A if no official conclusion is reached by resol... | 2025-01-02T17:49:34 | 2025-01-31T16:00:00 | 2025-02-04T19:51:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c0du9q6hCl | Will Severance Season 2 surpass the critical acclaim of Season 1? | Will Severance Season 2 surpass the critical acclaim of Season 1?
Resolves to "Yes" if the:
% of positive critics' reviews ("Avg. Tomatometer") on Rotten Tomatoes is greater than 97%, OR
Metacritic weighted-average score ("Metascore") is greater than 83.
The question will resolve on January 24 - one week after the ... | 2025-01-02T02:48:01 | 2025-01-24T05:45:12 | 2025-01-24T05:45:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dIsu8p5pct | Bitcoin dips below $80K in Q1? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin’s price dips below $80,000 at any point during Q1 2025 (January 1, 2025 – March 31, 2025).
• The price will be determined based on the Coinbase BTC/USD spot price.
• A 1-minute candlestick where the low is below $80,000 will trigger a “Yes” resolution... | 2025-01-01T20:47:34 | 2025-02-27T19:11:12 | 2025-02-27T19:11:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-R5OnzCquc8 | FBI confirms direct connection between New Orleans truck attack and Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion by February 1, 2025 | Will investigations confirm a direct connection between the January 1st New Orleans truck attack that killed 15 people and the Las Vegas Trump Hotel Cybertruck explosion?
Market resolves YES if the FBI or other lead investigative agencies officially confirm a direct connection between the two incidents by January 31, ... | 2025-01-01T16:02:38 | 2025-02-01T16:00:00 | 2025-02-02T16:17:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z05s2IIuUp | OpenAI demos an AI model for 'computer use' in January 2025 | This market resolves YES if OpenAI publicly demonstrates an AI model specifically designed for computer use/control during January 2025. Resolution will be based on official OpenAI demonstrations, press releases, and public announcements.
References:
https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/openais... | 2025-01-01T14:12:37 | 2025-01-23T10:10:21 | 2025-01-23T10:10:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-q0L2IQlIq5 | FBI officially classifies New Orleans truck attack as terrorism by January 31st 2025 | Will the FBI officially classify the January 1st, 2025 New Orleans truck attack as an act of terrorism by January 31st, 2025?
Market resolves based on official FBI statements or press releases confirming the classification.
References:
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-statement-on-the-attack-in-new-orlean... | 2025-01-01T09:47:28 | 2025-01-30T16:00:00 | 2025-02-02T16:16:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0QPsPRgd82 | Will Penn State football defeat Notre Dame on January 9? | This market will resolve to YES if Penn State defeats Notre Dame during its football game on January 9, 2025, to N/A if the game is not completed by January 20, 2025, and to NO otherwise. | 2025-01-01T07:32:05 | 2025-01-09T20:59:00 | 2025-01-10T05:46:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5PEOQNELLQ | Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" be revealed in January? | This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before January 31st, 2025 at 11:59PM PST.
A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling the original Switch's reveal... | 2025-01-01T06:38:09 | 2025-01-16T06:00:21 | 2025-01-16T06:00:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tcpZd8RNln | Will anyone die with H5 bird flu in the US in 2025? | Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - The term with refers to any death occurring in individuals who are infected with H5 bird flu, regardless of whether H5 bird flu is the direct cause of death. (AI summary of creator comment) | 2025-01-01T04:20:28 | 2025-01-06T15:01:55 | 2025-01-06T15:01:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-I2qSdh92En | Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2025? | Commercial airplanes nearly crashed 46 times in June 2023, according to NY Times reporting on FAA safety documents.
FAA hosts a public database of such incidents. Wikipedia lists fatal commercial aircraft accidents in the US.
an "airliner crash"
excludes non-commercial aviation, e.g. military, private jets, charter ... | 2025-01-01T00:07:19 | 2025-01-30T02:21:18 | 2025-01-30T02:21:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IOIqdq06R0 | Will Joe Biden express regret about dropping out before the end of 2025 [video evidence]? | Will there be video evidence strongly implying that Joe Biden regrets dropping out of the presidential race, before the end of 2025?
Some things that would make this resolve YES:
Biden says he would have won had he been the nominee
Biden says it was a mistake to drop out
If nothing like this comes out, resolves NO ... | 2024-12-30T08:22:58 | 2025-01-10T20:54:39 | 2025-01-18T10:18:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tOCgpzgthI | Will Erling Haaland have at least 20 Premier League goals in the 2024-25 season by the end of February 2025? | Resolves YES if Haaland has 20 or more goals (including 20) this season in the Premier League at any point before the end of February 2025. Resolves NO if this hasn't happened and Manchester City have played all of their Premier League matches scheduled before the end of February.
Data Source: https://www.premierleagu... | 2024-12-29T09:30:10 | 2025-02-28T10:53:51 | 2025-02-28T10:53:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zy9gcUQzs0 | Will Biden pardon SBF? | Resolves identically to https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-biden-pardon/will-biden-pardon-sbf-this-term
[link preview] | 2024-12-29T04:37:14 | 2025-01-20T02:59:00 | 2025-01-20T17:27:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c6c8EphOzd | Will Donald Trump have a net favorable rating on Jan 20 2025? | Resolution source is https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ . A net approval of 0 resolves NO.
Resolves on 20 Jan 0900h UTC | 2024-12-27T22:19:34 | 2025-01-20T03:51:29 | 2025-01-20T03:51:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QlhQEtsRLP | Will Trump express intent to run for a third term while he is president, before the end of Febuary 2025? | Any expression of intent counts, even if it is "obviously a joke", e.g. a Tweet saying "Who knows? Maybe I will run in 2028." counts.
Must be after inaguration.
Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - Corrected February 2024 to February 2025 as the market closing date. (AI summary of creator comment) | 2024-12-27T13:30:09 | 2025-01-28T13:37:35 | 2025-01-28T13:37:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6N6Ogd9LLS | Biden pardons Sam Bankman-Fried? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph R. Biden Jr. grants a full, partial, or conditional pardon to Sam Bankman-Fried by January 21, 2025, at 11:59 PM PST.
Conditions for Resolution:
• The pardon must be officially announced through White House communications, the Department of Justice, or... | 2024-12-24T20:12:31 | 2025-01-21T23:59:00 | 2025-01-22T00:04:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-959c58CLgP | Will Bill Clinton outlive Jimmy Carter? | Resolves when either Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter dies | 2024-12-23T14:05:30 | 2024-12-29T13:09:48 | 2024-12-29T13:09:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n5S55Syd9c | Will Magnus Carlsen repeat in 2024 as the FIDE World Blitz Champion? | This market predicts whether Magnus Carlsen will successfully defend his World Blitz Championship title this December at the 2024 FIDE World Rapid and Blitz Championships.
Resolution will be based on the official tournament results.
https://worldrapidandblitz2024.fide.com/schedule/
https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/ma... | 2024-12-23T13:05:54 | 2024-12-31T16:11:33 | 2024-12-31T16:11:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6ug6qP0pt9 | Trudeau out before April? | Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Justin Trudeau:
• Announces his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada, OR
• Ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time between December 22, 2024, and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive).
If Trudeau announces his resignation but remains in offic... | 2024-12-22T16:14:11 | 2025-01-06T08:57:56 | 2025-01-06T08:57:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c9stt6LEPu | Will Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear program before Trump’s inauguration? | In order for market to resolve YES, the attack must be a significant operation to either destroy or incapacitate nuclear capabilities of Iran. Any means of attack will count, including sabotage. If responsibility is not directly claimed, news reports by major news organizations will be used to assess. Market closes mid... | 2024-12-22T11:11:49 | 2025-01-20T09:47:14 | 2025-01-20T09:47:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OylE9tuN9n | Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February? | Google currently leads with Gemini -- which has two models at around 1370
[image]But OpenAI just announced O3 -- which is getting great marks on things like hard science questions.
https://deepnewz.com/ai-modeling/openai-unveils-o3-o3-mini-models-exceeding-human-performance-on-arc-agi-4f05e4f7
[image]The resolution i... | 2024-12-20T10:57:51 | 2025-02-01T09:03:45 | 2025-02-01T09:03:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pLE2ldQ6ZZ | Will any AI reach 20%+ performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2026? | The best performance by an AI system on FrontierMath as of December 31st 2026.
[image]Which AI systems count?
Any AI system counts if it operates within realistic deployment constraints and doesn't have unfair advantages over human baseliners.
Tool assistance, scaffolding, and any other inference-time elicitation te... | 2024-12-19T03:19:49 | 2025-01-01T12:31:42 | 2025-01-01T12:31:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8hI5AEPRL0 | Will Tesla(NASDAQ(TSLA)) have a significant drawdown (>40%) in 2025? | I will take the dates from "investing.com", if in 2025 will be a drawdown of 40% or more i will resolve for YES, otherwise i will resolve for NO. | 2024-12-16T03:14:01 | 2025-03-10T14:13:27 | 2025-03-10T14:13:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NpILIcROR9 | Will the Chiefs score more than 30 points in a game this season? | This market includes both regular season and post season games.
All points scored in a game (the final score) count
YES: Over 30 points scored in a game
NO: 30 points or less scored in a game | 2024-12-15T10:43:36 | 2025-01-26T18:41:50 | 2025-01-26T18:41:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rn5SZSI80q | Will a disaster occur related to the "drones" before end of 2024? | The US government's official stance on the spreading drones is that "there is no evidence they pose a threat." So, are they telling the truth, or, is the statement carefully worded to only be true about the drones themselves?
This market will resolve to YES if one hundred or more people are killed in an incident rela... | 2024-12-14T16:10:22 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:25:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ztdnPqSpS8 | Will non-human intelligence become a leading "mainstream media" theory for the cause of the "drones" before end of 2024? | Some news outlets have just begun to seriously consider the theory that non-human intelligence is responsible for some of the UFO sightings in New Jersey and elsewhere around the world. I've also noticed that more of my comments supporting this hypothesis are receiving likes and upvotes than they did a week ago. Will... | 2024-12-14T10:47:52 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:22:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZlI2ZsZNzU | Will any of the three flat earth participants on "The Final Experiment" renounce their belief in flat earth before 2026? | TFE is an experiment where flat and globe earthers are traveling to Antarctica to see if the 24 hour sun is real or not. Resolves yes of any of the flat earth participants (Jeran Campanella, Sean Griffin, or Austin Whitsitt) makes a sincere statement renouncing their belief in flat earth before 2026.
https://www.the-f... | 2024-12-14T09:23:18 | 2025-03-08T10:09:01 | 2025-03-08T10:09:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-phUuQtS0hP | If Pete Hegseth is nominated for Secretary of Defense, will John Fetterman vote to confirm him? | Resolves based on the first nominee to the office who receives a Senate vote. Resolves N/A if Hegseth is not the nominee. | 2024-12-13T19:18:11 | 2025-01-24T18:23:12 | 2025-01-24T18:23:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gNUURzzuSI | Will Trump ever have a net positive approval rating? (Read Description) | BEGINNING 2 WEEKS AFFER HE IS INAUGURATED - I.E., BEGINNING FEBRUARY 3RD, 2025.
DECIDED BY REALCLEARPOLITICS AVERAGE.
Last term, his approval rating went underwater February 1st, 2017 and never surfaced. Joe Biden’s went underwater August 23rd, 2021 and never surfaced.
If RCP shuts down for whatever reason, then d... | 2024-12-13T08:43:39 | 2025-02-20T07:23:24 | 2025-02-20T07:23:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pP0u5Cpp2n | Will Trump order an end to birthright citizenship within 72h of being president? | Update 2024-13-12 (PST): Market will resolve based on whether Trump issues an executive order to end birthright citizenship, regardless of whether the order is upheld in court. (AI summary of creator comment) | 2024-12-12T21:21:59 | 2025-01-21T19:12:47 | 2025-01-21T19:12:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S00cLNgtcA | At least one Trump Cabinet Member confirmed by Senate on January 20, 2025 | This market resolves based on whether any Trump Cabinet nominees receive Senate confirmation on Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025).
Resolution will be based on official Senate confirmation votes and reporting from major news sources.
| 2024-12-12T13:02:39 | 2025-01-20T16:00:00 | 2025-01-20T18:06:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ONNI9qZgPu | Will Lula still be President of Brazil on March 1st 2025? 🇧🇷🗳️ | Lula, age 79, is to undergo a "minor" brain surgery on Thursday December 12th -- his second brain surgery this month.
https://deepnewz.com/brazil/brazil-s-lula-to-undergo-low-risk-brain-procedure-thursday-after-emergency-1787368b
[image]While Lula is not due for another election until 2026, and other Manifold markets ... | 2024-12-11T23:53:22 | 2025-03-02T20:59:00 | 2025-03-04T14:27:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qyuIS9RZ9O | Will Xi Jinping attend Trump’s inauguration? | Donald Trump has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his presidential inauguration scheduled for January 20. While the invitation has been extended, Xi has not yet publicly confirmed whether he will attend.
The market will resolve YES if Xi Jinping physically attends Donald Trump's presidential inauguration ceremo... | 2024-12-11T15:17:11 | 2025-01-19T16:30:18 | 2025-01-19T16:30:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2PAgz5In6O | Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? | Resolves YES if Liz Cheney receives any form of presidential pardon issued by Joe Biden during his first term. Otherwise, resolves NO when the next president takes office.
Resolves YES even if Liz Cheney chooses to "reject" the pardon. | 2024-12-11T08:32:13 | 2025-01-19T23:59:00 | 2025-01-20T07:50:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ANAqtcQdlE | Will Donald Trump be attacked again? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump is physically attacked or threatened between December 10, 2024 and January 20, 2025 (at 11:59 PM Eastern Time). Resolves N/A if Trump is attacked or threatened, but the person (or at least one of the people, if multiple) has ever made a bet on Manifold, or a close associate of someone else ... | 2024-12-09T23:38:17 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:01:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N2OLyZRIg0 | Trump administration implements ending birthright citizenship by February 1, 2025, in a policy or signed bill. | This market resolves YES if there is an official announcement or proposal from the Trump administration regarding the end of birthright citizenship by February 1, 2025. Resolution will be based on official White House statements, press releases, or legislative proposals.
References:
https://www.niskanencenter.org/pro... | 2024-12-09T12:05:28 | 2025-01-21T09:06:53 | 2025-01-21T09:06:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.