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| open_date
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| close_date
stringlengths 19
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| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
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| resolution
stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-QztPU6u62O
|
Will there be another assassination of a fortune 500 executive before the UHC killer is caught?
|
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will remain open indefinitely if the killer's body is never found.
Update 2024-10-12 (PST): The market will be resolved as No since the killer has already been caught. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-12-08T13:58:44
|
2024-12-10T06:09:26
|
2024-12-10T06:09:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cQ89nR05hZ
|
Did Bashar al-Assad die in a plane crash on December 7th (PST)?
|
Some reports on social media claim that Assad was on a plane out of Syriah that crashed near Homs today 12/7 (PST time zone). This resolved YES if Assad was in fact on an airplane today that crashed and he died as a consequence of that crash. It does not have to be near Homs or on a flight that was in fact heading out of Syriah. Fatal Crash anywhere on route to anywhere counts.
If Assad survives or died from unrelated causes or on a later date this resolves NO.
Example of social media story: https://bsky.app/profile/slothropsmap.bsky.social/post/3lcraflomcs2q
If we don't know by end date this resolves NA
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will resolve YES if Assad dies from any type of non-normal landing of an airplane (including both accidental crashes and intentional attacks), as long as it occurs on the specified date.
|
2024-12-07T20:41:28
|
2024-12-08T12:38:09
|
2024-12-08T12:38:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tyy2hs8P8P
|
Assad dead in 2024?
|
This market resolves YES if Bashar al-Assad, former President of Syria, is confirmed dead before 31 Dec 2024. If he is dead prior to market creation, it still resolves YES. This will resolve NO if credible sources prove he's alive at the end of this year.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If Assad's status is unclear on December 31st 2024, the market will be extended until there is proof of life or death.
|
2024-12-07T20:02:30
|
2025-01-01T09:02:06
|
2025-01-01T09:02:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9LzuNcUOcP
|
Will the shooter of Brian Thompson of UnitedHealthcare be arrested by the end of February 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-12-07T03:53:28
|
2024-12-09T12:33:40
|
2024-12-09T12:33:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nUng5A0C0O
|
Will OpenAI release o2 (or o3) as part of the 12 days of Christmas?
|
https://x.com/sama/with_replies
Update 2024-19-12 (PST): The market will resolve as YES if OpenAI releases either o2 or o3 as part of the 12 days of Christmas. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-20-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A release is defined as allowing access to a larger set of people
A full public release is not required
Simply announcing future access does not count as a release
|
2024-12-06T18:06:48
|
2024-12-20T14:36:14
|
2024-12-21T14:14:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5NyIO26ltt
|
Will Assad flee Syria by 2025?
|
This should be pretty clear, but obviously temporary visits abroad will not count. To help distinguish between visits and flight, this question can only resolve YES if the Syrian government loses Damascus.
Internal retreats, including to Alawite-majority Latakia and Tartus, will not count.
If Assad is killed while on the ground in Syrian territory, this market will resolve NO. If Assad is killed after fleeing Syria I will resolve YES. If Assad is fleeing by air and his plane is shot down over Syria I will resolve YES.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If Assad's plane crashes in Syria during an attempt to flee (regardless of cause), this will resolve as YES.
|
2024-12-06T16:47:45
|
2024-12-08T00:48:12
|
2024-12-08T10:17:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8OdugR6hRO
|
Are these two supposed pictures of the United Healthcare CEO assassin actually different people?
|
People have pointed out their jackets, bags, and facial features might not line up.
[image][image]Remember, kids: YES = DIFFERENT people, NO = SAME person.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on official police sources and creator's judgment. Resolution may be delayed until after suspect is caught.
|
2024-12-05T18:28:30
|
2024-12-27T20:27:36
|
2024-12-27T20:27:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PSU0hCclcS
|
Will Jimmy Carter blaze through April 20, 2025?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy Carter is alive on April 21, 2025. EST. Resolves No if he dies.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JCDM/which-days-will-jimmy-carter-be-ali-d7d632de70ae?play=true)
|
2024-12-05T18:02:13
|
2024-12-29T16:24:26
|
2024-12-29T16:24:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LyEIhOAzLS
|
Will a tsunami kill >10 people in California in the next 10 days?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-12-05T11:01:42
|
2024-12-15T23:59:00
|
2024-12-16T09:41:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zy6Uc2ERCR
|
Will the UnitedHealthcare killer kill or attempt to kill again?
|
A major manhunt is ongoing for the killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. The killer shot and killed Thompson during a daytime attack in what is being described as a planned killing.
CNN reports that other major US healthcare executives are now increasing their security measures in wake of the killing:
"“The heads of major health care concerns and their security departments were adding people, security details, precautions, mail screening — across the country,” CNN’s Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst, John J. Miller said."
The killer may also pose a threat to law enforcement or the general public.
Resolves to "Yes" if a consensus of news outlets reports that the killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson has killed another person, or attempted to kill another person before January 1, 2025.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
If the killer is involved in a shootout with police where they shoot at officers or any other person, this will count as an attempt to kill and resolve to Yes, unless there is explicit evidence that the intent was not to kill
|
2024-12-05T08:54:18
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:09:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uulE22E5Qd
|
Bitcoin above $100K on Dec 14?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 on Coinbase at any point on December 14, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on December 8, 2024.
|
2024-12-04T23:51:27
|
2024-12-14T01:07:37
|
2024-12-14T01:07:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uPghU6yqzC
|
Bitcoin $110K in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-12-04T20:02:36
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:03:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gdEzgIEq6t
|
Bitcoin $120K in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-12-04T20:01:24
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:02:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Cn8q6SscC6
|
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024?
|
[image]Admin clarification before sweepifying:
If somebody is arrested who the mainstream media/police claim is the killer this will resolve as YES immediately. They do not have to be found guilty and if they end up being released as not the killer the market will remain resolved as yes.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
Market resolves NO if the killer is found dead or killed by law enforcement
|
2024-12-04T12:39:23
|
2024-12-09T12:22:47
|
2024-12-09T12:22:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c0Anqtuh2l
|
Will the United Healthcare CEO shooter be caught by June 2025?
|
I see no reason to be hasty but I do anticipate closing this soonish.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
Market will resolve YES if the shooter is found dead
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The shooter does not need to be convicted to resolve YES - being caught/found is sufficient.
|
2024-12-04T12:02:51
|
2024-12-10T20:21:13
|
2024-12-10T20:21:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q0gElppAPu
|
Will the killing of United Healthcare’s CEO be tied to a denial of service decision the company made by March 1st, 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-12-04T08:40:23
|
2025-03-01T20:59:00
|
2025-03-03T16:23:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ISAphSINc2
|
Murderer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson caught before January 3, 2025
|
This market resolves YES if the person responsible for the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is identified and apprehended by law enforcement before January 3, 2025. Resolution will be based on official statements from the NYPD or major news outlets confirming an arrest.
References:
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/brian-thompson-united-healthcare-ceo-killed
https://www.axios.com/2024/12/04/unitedhealthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-killed-shot
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If the suspect is found dead or killed by law enforcement, the market will resolve YES as long as there are official statements from law enforcement confirming they were the assassin.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
Market will resolve YES if an arrest is made and either major news outlets or NYPD indicate the arrest is of the suspected killer
If the arrested person is later found to be innocent after market resolution, the YES resolution will stand
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
Market will resolve YES if an arrest is made and either major news outlets or NYPD indicate the arrest is of the suspected killer
If the arrested person is later found to be innocent after market resolution, the YES resolution will stand
|
2024-12-04T07:51:44
|
2024-12-09T11:05:03
|
2024-12-09T11:05:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9ZZzny5clO
|
Doomsday Clock set at less than 90 seconds to midnight by January 2025
|
The Doomsday Clock is a symbol representing how close humanity is to global catastrophe.
This market resolves based on the official announcement from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in early 2025.
Resolution Criteria:
Market resolves YES if the clock is set to any time less than 90 seconds to midnight.
Resolves NO if set to 90 seconds or more.
References:
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
|
2024-12-04T04:18:25
|
2025-01-28T10:58:34
|
2025-01-28T10:58:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nOq6RPZ8Qp
|
Will Biden have granted more pardon petitions than Trump (2017-2021)?
|
We will use: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-statistics
Trump(2017-2021) granted 144 pardon petitions.
|
2024-12-04T01:47:29
|
2025-01-21T14:59:00
|
2025-02-01T06:20:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O9zZLA8dt5
|
Will Trump suggest repealing the 22nd Amendment (term limits) before inauguration?
|
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A statement like "I suspect I won't be running again unless you say, 'He's so good we've got to figure something else out'" does not count as a suggestion to repeal the 22nd Amendment.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Statements suggesting that the 22nd Amendment doesn't apply to Trump (e.g., due to impeachment affecting term counts) do not count as suggestions to repeal the amendment.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Generic musings about being entitled to more terms or how people might want him to have more terms do not count as suggestions to repeal the 22nd Amendment.
|
2024-12-03T19:46:13
|
2025-01-20T22:13:03
|
2025-01-20T22:13:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SIUy62zynh
|
Will Yoon Suk Yeol still be Korean president on Jan 6th 2025? 🇰🇷
|
He ran what appears to be an unsuccessful coup. Or a moment of madness?
https://deepnewz.com/world/south-korea-s-yoon-declares-martial-law-u-s-notification-u-s-expresses-serious-5944dca9
[image]Will he still be president on Jan 6th 2025 Korean Time -- resolves midnight Korean time.
YES if he is still in office. NO if he is impeached, removed or resigns.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market resolves YES if Yoon Suk Yeol holds official power, even if impeached
Resolution is based on whether he maintains actual power/office, not impeachment status
Update 2024-14-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Yoon to be considered out of office, his removal must be confirmed by Constitutional Court, unless he resigns or his party forces him out
Resolution will not occur before Monday unless there is a clear event like resignation
|
2024-12-03T14:08:47
|
2025-01-05T20:20:21
|
2025-01-05T20:20:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2UzCdhgQ6y
|
Will Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol be impeached [⚠ and gone] before January 3rd 2025?
|
Criteria for a “Yes” Resolution:
• Completed Impeachment Process: President Yoon Suk Yeol has been impeached as defined in point 1 above, with both the National Assembly’s passage of the impeachment motion and the Constitutional Court’s confirmation occurring before 11:59 PM Korean Standard Time (KST) on January 2nd, 2025.
• Resignation After Impeachment Motion: President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office after the National Assembly passes an impeachment motion against him but before the Constitutional Court reaches a decision, and this resignation occurs before the deadline.
Criteria for a “No” Resolution:
• No Impeachment Motion Passed: The National Assembly does not pass an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol before the deadline.
• Impeachment Motion Not Confirmed or No Resignation: An impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly but is not confirmed by the Constitutional Court before the deadline, and President Yoon Suk Yeol does not resign after the motion is passed.
• Resignation Without Impeachment Motion: President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office before any impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly.
• Removal by Other Means: President Yoon Suk Yeol leaves office due to death, incapacitation, or any method other than the impeachment process defined above.
Additional Clarifications:
• Time Zone: All times and dates refer to Korean Standard Time (KST, UTC+9).
• Sequence of Events: For a “Yes” resolution under point 2, the resignation must occur after the impeachment motion has been officially passed by the National Assembly.
• Legal Challenges: Any legal proceedings or appeals related to the impeachment that are unresolved by the deadline will not affect the market’s resolution.
• Extensions and Delays: Any extensions, delays, or procedural changes in the impeachment process after the deadline will not be considered.
|
2024-12-03T08:51:42
|
2025-01-02T21:59:00
|
2025-01-03T11:48:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gR89Q6dhdI
|
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested before 2026?
|
Background
Yoon Suk-yeol is the current President of South Korea, serving since May 2022. On December 3, 2024, he declared martial law in response to perceived threats from the opposition. His presidency has been marked by various controversies and political challenges, including a major defeat for his party in recent elections.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if Yoon Suk-yeol is arrested by law enforcement authorities before January 1, 2026. The arrest must be formally executed with an arrest warrant or through a legitimate legal process under South Korean law.
The market will resolve as NO if:
Yoon is not arrested before January 1, 2026
He is only questioned or investigated without being arrested
He faces impeachment proceedings but is not arrested
He resigns or leaves office without being arrested
Considerations
Sitting presidents in South Korea have constitutional immunity from criminal prosecution except in cases of insurrection or treason
The opposition party does not currently have the two-thirds majority needed for impeachment
The declaration of martial law does not affect the president's constitutional immunity
Previous South Korean presidents have faced legal consequences after leaving office, including arrests and convictions, but this typically occurs after their terms end
Any arrest would likely require either impeachment and removal from office, or charges of insurrection or treason that overcome presidential immunity
|
2024-12-03T08:08:51
|
2025-01-15T20:33:55
|
2025-01-15T20:33:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cZInLlIzhS
|
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on January 1, 2025?
|
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve YES if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the title of president on January 1, 2025, even if he is suspended from his duties due to impeachment.
Update 2024-29-12 (PST): - In the event that Yoon Suk Yeol is arrested, the market will only resolve to YES if the arrest results in him ceasing to hold the title of president. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-12-03T07:57:58
|
2025-01-01T07:59:00
|
2025-01-01T13:11:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lSpAtILdIu
|
Will South Korea be under martial law on January 1st 2025?
|
I will not bet.
I am happy to accept advice on how resolution criteria, but it seems that unless the President of South Korea specifies an end date in advance, martial law will continue until it is declared lifted.
|
2024-12-03T06:13:17
|
2024-12-30T22:00:00
|
2025-01-01T13:11:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qqs8gZsIZC
|
Will Syrian rebels control Homs by June 30, 2025?
|
Resolves YES if Syrian rebels (HTS or other anti-government groups) control the entire city of Homs for any period of time before the end of June 2025. So if the rebels capture Homs, they wouldn't necessarily need to hold it through June 30, 2025 for the question to resolve as YES.
Resolves NO if the city remains in government control, or if control is split between pro-government and rebel forces.
|
2024-12-03T06:06:51
|
2024-12-07T17:48:18
|
2024-12-07T17:48:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0LSNQSpghz
|
Biden pardons Fauci?
|
Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if President Joe Biden officially pardons Anthony Fauci for any alleged crimes or offenses during his presidency, as confirmed by an official announcement, executive order, or credible news sources.
• If no such pardon is issued by the resolution date, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: January 21, 2025, at 23:59 PST.
|
2024-12-02T18:46:43
|
2025-01-20T12:36:42
|
2025-01-20T12:36:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p2EsOhSEOg
|
Donald Trump meets with Marine Le Pen during his Paris trip
|
This market resolves based on whether Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen have a confirmed in-person meeting during Trump's upcoming visit to Paris.
Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if reputable news sources (Reuters, AP, AFP) or official statements from Trump/Le Pen's offices confirm they met in person. Market resolves NO if no meeting occurs by the time Trump leaves France. A meeting must be intentional and mutually agreed upon. Just being in the same room or bumping into each other doesn’t count. The meeting can take place within or outside of Paris as long as it is during Trump’s trip.
References:
https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20241130-french-far-right-sceptical-of-trump-as-policies-threaten-european-interests
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/12/03/trump-will-visit-paris-to-celebrate-reopening-of-notre-dame/
|
2024-12-02T18:19:45
|
2024-12-09T16:00:00
|
2024-12-10T09:11:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-syq5cQpCL0
|
Will Biden have pardoned more people than Trump (2017-2021)?
|
Trump issued 144 pardons on his first term.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve based on Federal marijuana pardons issued by Biden compared to Trump's 144 pardons.
|
2024-12-02T02:08:33
|
2024-12-04T01:34:41
|
2024-12-04T01:34:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C0lSssnZIu
|
Trump team releases Epstein/Diddy information before January 31st, 2025.
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump, Elon Musk or his team officially releases substantial new information about either the Epstein or Diddy cases before January 31st, 2025. Must be verifiable through major news sources and contain significant new revelations not previously public.
|
2024-12-01T22:42:29
|
2025-01-31T16:00:00
|
2025-01-31T18:00:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2QCh0ZRL68
|
Bitcoin below $90K in December?
|
Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $90,000 USD at any point during December 2024, based on the last price in any 1-minute candlestick on Coinbase.
• If Bitcoin does not fall below $90K during December 2024, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2024, at 23:59 PST, or earlier if the price condition is met.
|
2024-12-01T20:40:20
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:01:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tUL52IcOz0
|
Will Bashar Al-Assad remain in power throughout 2025?
|
Background
Bashar al-Assad has been the President of Syria since 2000 and has maintained power through a devastating civil war that began in 2011. He currently controls most of Syria's territory with strong military and political backing from Russia and Iran. Recent developments include Syria's readmission to the Arab League and growing regional normalization of relations with the Assad regime.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if Bashar al-Assad is alive and remains the President of Syria through December 31, 2025. The market will resolve NO if:
Assad dies from any cause before December 31, 2025
Assad is removed from power through any means (military coup, revolution, voluntary resignation, etc.)
Assad no longer exercises de facto control over the Syrian government
Considerations
While Assad faces ongoing challenges including regional instability and economic crisis, he has consolidated his military position with support from key allies
The U.S. Biden administration has shown limited engagement in Syria, reducing external pressure for regime change
Recent regional diplomatic developments, including normalization with Turkey and other Arab states, have strengthened Assad's position
Previous predictions of Assad's fall have consistently proven wrong since the start of the Syrian Civil War
|
2024-12-01T14:07:23
|
2024-12-07T23:34:31
|
2024-12-07T23:34:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hqRAUC8A5S
|
Will the Bitcoin hit $99K in December 2024?
|
Background
Bitcoin recently touched the $99K mark following news of Gary Gensler's resignation as SEC chair, but subsequently experienced corrections, dropping below $93K. The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, influenced by regulatory changes, market sentiment, and various macroeconomic factors.
Resolution Criteria
Market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $99,000.00 USD at any point during December 2024 (UTC timezone) on any major cryptocurrency exchange.
Market resolves NO if Bitcoin's price stays below $99,000.00 USD throughout December 2024.
Price must be verified by at least two major cryptocurrency exchanges (e.g., Binance, Coinbase, Kraken).
Brief price spikes due to technical glitches or exchange malfunctions will not count toward resolution.
If an exchange experiences a significant hack or technical issue that affects price reporting, that exchange's data will be excluded from consideration.
Considerations
Bitcoin's price can be highly volatile and subject to rapid changes.
Historical precedent shows that cryptocurrency prices can be influenced by various factors including regulatory news, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions.
The approval or rejection of Bitcoin ETFs, changes in regulatory stance, or major institutional adoption could significantly impact Bitcoin's price during this period.
|
2024-12-01T07:34:11
|
2024-12-04T15:34:07
|
2024-12-04T15:34:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pSCztCzOER
|
Will there be a new major LLM released by OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2024?
|
Models that would count:
GPT-5, o1 (not preview), Claude 3.5 Opus, Claude 4.0 Sonnet
Models that would not count: GPT-4o-12-2024, Claude-3.5 Sonnet-12-2024
I will decide ambiguous models how I see fit.
|
2024-12-01T07:33:33
|
2024-12-05T11:00:30
|
2024-12-05T11:00:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c5h956ChLO
|
Will Kash Patel be FBI Director?
|
This market will be settle as YES if Kash Patel becomes Director of the FBI by the close date of the market.
The market may close early as NO if Trump at some point withdraws his nomination or a consensus of credible reporting indicates the president is no longer pursuing the nomination.
Update: Becoming Acting Director will count.
|
2024-11-30T17:30:24
|
2025-02-28T17:56:09
|
2025-02-28T17:56:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8s90AUyQAL
|
Will pro-HTS rebels be in Damascus province at the end of the year?
|
They have almost entered Hama. If they enter Damascus province but withdraw before the end of the year, this will count as No.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Pro-HTS rebels entering Damascus province as part of a post-Assad coalition government will count as Yes.
|
2024-11-30T09:42:20
|
2025-01-01T05:09:59
|
2025-01-01T05:09:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l8y6t0cgs8
|
Will Assad government forces control the Syrian Presidential Palace in Damascus on January 1st, 2025?
|
Resolves based on a consensus of credible media reporting as to whether government forces under the command of Bashar Al Assad control the presidential palace.. Contested control (i.e. active fighting) resolves to no.
|
2024-11-29T12:52:49
|
2024-12-08T05:25:12
|
2024-12-08T05:25:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LEhn8Itu50
|
Will OpenAI launch or announce something new on ChatGPT’s anniversary tomorrow?
|
ChatGPT was launched by OpenAI on November 30, 2022, marking a significant milestone in AI development. While OpenAI regularly releases updates and new features, they typically don't announce major launches in advance.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if OpenAI officially launches or announces a new product, model, or significant feature for ChatGPT on November 30, 2024.
To qualify as "new":
Must be more substantial than routine updates or bug fixes
Must be officially announced or released by OpenAI
Must be directly related to ChatGPT or its underlying technology
The market will resolve NO if:
No new launches or announcements occur on November 30, 2024
Only minor updates or bug fixes are released
Considerations
OpenAI has not publicly indicated any plans for anniversary-related launches
The company has historically made major announcements without tying them to specific dates or anniversaries
The market will close when it is no longer Nov 30 anywhere in the world (UTC−12:00)
|
2024-11-29T09:03:03
|
2024-12-01T05:06:39
|
2024-12-01T05:06:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-90PUqhqIu2
|
Will Anthropic have a Super Bowl ad?
|
Prompted by this tweet from @ZviMowshowitz : https://x.com/TheZvi/status/1862207253073256786
To bet on OpenAI:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MichaelWheatley/companies-with-super-bowl-ads?play=true)
|
2024-11-28T15:42:19
|
2025-02-10T07:56:00
|
2025-02-10T07:56:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CNdOZUlCSQ
|
Bitcoin above $95K on Dec 8?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $95,000 on Coinbase at any point on December 8, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on December 8, 2024.
|
2024-11-27T21:56:06
|
2024-12-08T02:11:04
|
2024-12-08T02:11:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-phNPgOEdgR
|
Trump signs executive order imposing 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada goods on January 20, 2025
|
This market resolves based on whether Donald Trump signs an executive order on his first day in office (January 20, 2025) imposing a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada.
Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if Trump signs such an executive order on January 20, 2025, and NO otherwise. This will be verified through official White House announcements and executive order documents.
References:
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/trump-pledges-new-tariffs-on-china-mexico-canada-in-day-one-agenda
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-says-issue-executive-order-charge-canada-mexico-25-tariff-goods-taking-office
|
2024-11-26T03:26:02
|
2025-01-20T16:00:00
|
2025-01-22T08:03:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u0SICAtqEy
|
Will Trump institute a transgender military ban within 24 hours of taking office?
|
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump, upon taking office as President in 2025, issues an executive order or similar directive banning transgender individuals from serving in the US military within his first 24 hours as president. Market resolves NO if no such ban is instituted within the first 24 hours.
Resolution criteria: Official White House announcements, executive orders, or Department of Defense directives issued within the first 24 hours of Trump taking office.
Sources: https://www.thepinknews.com/2024/11/25/donald-trump-transgender-military/ https://economictimes.com/news/international/global-trends/trump-plans-deadly-move-against-transgenders-serving-in-the-us-military-on-first-day-of-his-office-check-details/articleshow/115656318.cms
|
2024-11-25T18:56:01
|
2025-01-20T17:08:58
|
2025-01-20T17:08:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-unUtCSQOs6
|
If Bitcoin goes over 100k$, will it reach 115k within one week?
|
Question is, if Bitcoin surpasses 100k, will it shoot straight up within the same week to at least 115k?
YES if it increases at least 15k USD in the week following to hitting* 100k.
NO if it never reaches 115k after a week.
N/A in the event BTC doesn't reaches 100k at all - the market will be reasonably extended but the point is within this halving cycle.
Price will be taken from coingecko, it can be resolved YES as soon as the price hits the 115k target within the week.
*The week starts counting at the time BTC surpasses (it has to actually go over it not barely touch it and immediately go down) 100k in coingecko. To be specific and avoid interpretations let's say it has to END one of the 30 minute candlesticks in coingecko over 100k to start the week counter. It's exactly one week after said candlestick.
It's basic because I don't have a lot of liquidity rn so just put up limit orders. I tried to make the numbers interesting :)
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
For the week counter to start, BTC must stay above $100k for the duration of the 30 minute candlestick, not just briefly touch it
|
2024-11-25T17:35:27
|
2024-12-11T19:30:00
|
2024-12-11T19:30:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rudl0Sp0U0
|
TikTok banned in the US by May 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if TikTok is officially banned from operating in the United States by May 31, 2025, as confirmed by credible sources such as government announcements, legislation, or major news outlets.
• A ban must prevent TikTok from being legally accessible to the general public in the US (e.g., removal from app stores or blocked access).
• If TikTok remains operational in the US by the deadline, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: May 31, 2025, at 23:59 PST.
|
2024-11-25T00:45:01
|
2025-03-04T14:38:26
|
2025-03-04T14:38:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-60pZcnCNEy
|
SpaceX conducts at least one Starship launch every month in 2025
|
SpaceX aims to conduct 25 Starship launches in 2025, requiring consistent monthly launches to achieve this goal.
Market resolves YES if SpaceX conducts at least one Starship launch in each calendar month of 2025 (January through December). Market resolves NO if any month passes without a launch.
|
2024-11-24T17:26:32
|
2025-03-02T01:15:58
|
2025-03-02T01:15:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8zR5uc8Pzp
|
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be unrenewable in 2025?
|
Weaker version of https://manifold.markets/JessicaEvans/will-transgender-us-passports-with
For an N=1 case study, see https://manifold.markets/KJW_01294/will-kimmys-transgender-mtf-passpor
Will a trans-allied news source like Erin Reed, them.us, NCTE, etc. report that many people (N>=5) whose gender marker differs from the one assigned at birth are unable to renew their passport? By any means, including legislative or administrative.
Also resolves YES if:
The sister market resolves YES (passports are revoked) or
A mainstream news source or trans-critical news source reports this occurring (I somewhat don’t expect them to.), or
Such passports may be renewed only if the recipient agrees to “correct” their gender marker to match the one assigned at birth
Resolves NO if:
Number of individuals affected is < 5
Such a source reports that everyone is also having trouble renewing passports (stricter ID requirements, dismantling of USPS, destaffing, etc) — gender mismatch must be stated as a contributing factor to count as YES
>=5 anecdotal posts describing this happening to individuals on Bluesky, Twitter, etc can be found, but are not being reported as systemic/widespread, even by trans-allied journalists
I believe this is somewhat likely (>20% probability), but I won’t participate.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JessicaEvans/will-transgender-us-passports-with?play=true)Update 2025-24-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Secretary of State Marco Rubio directed the State Department to freeze passport renewals and applications for individuals with an “X” sex marker.
All current and future applications requesting an “X” sex marker are being suspended pending additional guidance from the Department.
Resolve YES in 14 days unless there are substantial legal challenges or other developments pending additional guidance from the Department.
|
2024-11-24T08:15:00
|
2025-02-02T15:53:59
|
2025-02-02T15:53:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yRc2lZzc8c
|
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next Director of National Intelligence?
|
clearing ambiguity from a related question.
This resolves ‘yes’ if she ever holds the title, whether it’s confirmation by Congress or appointment during recess. It resolves ‘no’ if she declines, is denied by congress, or someone else is appointed to the role.
|
2024-11-23T23:57:01
|
2025-02-12T12:08:43
|
2025-02-12T12:08:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AREcuUtO26
|
Bitcoin above $110K on Christmas?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $110,000 on Coinbase at any point on December 25, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on December 25, 2024.
|
2024-11-23T20:12:45
|
2024-12-25T23:59:00
|
2024-12-26T09:34:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NzyE2UZysy
|
Will Liverpool beat Manchester City?
|
Liverpool is scheduled to play Manchester City at home on December 1st. Resolves YES if Liverpool wins the match, NO if it's a draw or Manchester City wins.
This market is about the Liverpool vs. Man City Premier League match at Liverpool, not any other match between these teams.
If the match is postponed, this market's close date will be extended as needed.
|
2024-11-23T13:01:54
|
2024-12-01T10:26:14
|
2024-12-01T10:26:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hPLuyhg8pO
|
Will Donald Trump pardon Hunter Biden?
|
Background
Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden's son, faces multiple federal charges including tax-related crimes and a firearms violation. Former President Donald Trump, in recent interviews, has suggested he would be open to pardoning Hunter Biden if re-elected, despite being a political opponent of the Biden family.
Current Status
The White House has stated that President Joe Biden will not pardon his son. Trump's comments about potentially pardoning Hunter Biden came during his 2024 presidential campaign, though he has not made any firm commitments.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if Donald Trump issues a presidential pardon to Hunter Biden at any point in the future. This requires:
Trump must become president again
The pardon must be officially issued while Trump is in office
The pardon must specifically cover Hunter Biden
The pardon must be formally documented in federal records
The market will resolve as NO if:
Trump never becomes president again
Trump becomes president but does not pardon Hunter Biden during his term(s)
Trump only issues a commutation rather than a full pardon
Things to Consider
A pardon can only be issued by a sitting president
Presidential pardons can be issued preemptively, before any conviction
Trump would need to win the 2024 election (or a future election) to have the power to issue pardons
Hunter Biden's legal situation and charges could change before any potential pardon
Political considerations may influence Trump's decision differently once in office versus as a candidate
|
2024-11-23T03:41:20
|
2024-12-02T10:12:26
|
2024-12-02T10:12:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UpUSyE2tEA
|
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2025-01-20?
|
This market resolves to "Yes" if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in a direct military application (not a test) before January 20, 2025. Direct military application includes any intentional use as a weapon during a conflict but excludes tests, accidents, or threats.
The market resolves to "N/A" if Russia ceases to exist before this date for reasons unrelated to the use of nuclear weapons. If no such use occurs by the deadline and Russia continues to exist, the market resolves to "No."
|
2024-11-22T11:27:17
|
2025-01-20T21:59:00
|
2025-01-21T07:01:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0z85nsPZZy
|
Will Russia launch another ICBM or IRBM in 2024?
|
This market resolves YES if Russia launches a ICBM or IRBM before Jan 1, 2025
It doesn't have to hit Ukraine. Test launches count, but only if it makes it off the launch pad.
|
2024-11-22T07:04:28
|
2025-01-01T08:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:03:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pc8PyStCyh
|
Bitcoin hits $100K in less than 48 hours?
|
Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $100,000 USD by November 24, 2024, at 4:00 AM PST, based on data from Coinbase.
• The price must be reflected as the last price in any 1-minute candlestick within the 48-hour period.
• If Bitcoin does not hit $100K within the specified timeframe, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: November 24, 2024, at 4:00 AM PST.
|
2024-11-22T03:52:34
|
2024-11-24T04:00:00
|
2024-11-24T08:43:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0CLsI06LQq
|
Bitcoin above $100K on Thanksgiving?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 on Coinbase at any point on November 28, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on November 28, 2024.
|
2024-11-22T02:27:23
|
2024-11-28T23:59:00
|
2024-11-29T00:39:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pS0IdsuzSL
|
Trump creates Bitcoin reserve in 100 days?
|
Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald J. Trump, during the first 100 days of his presidency starting January 20, 2025, officially announces or signs an executive order to create a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, as confirmed by credible sources (e.g., official government statements, press releases, or major news outlets).
• If no such announcement or action is made within the first 100 days, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: April 29, 2025, at 23:59 PST.
|
2024-11-22T01:47:02
|
2025-03-06T18:37:22
|
2025-03-06T18:37:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NIlyhQyLdg
|
Will Elon do his X jump at the inauguration?
|
[image]
|
2024-11-21T20:16:23
|
2025-01-20T22:59:00
|
2025-01-21T06:04:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P882upQulC
|
Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before Nov 29?
|
Resolves based if the Coinbase BTC-USD market has traded at or above $100,000 before 00:00 ET Nov 29
|
2024-11-21T15:12:19
|
2024-11-29T06:25:43
|
2024-11-29T06:25:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hPlOC2sURt
|
Will Matt Gaetz take the House oath of office on January 3rd, 2025?
|
He has in some sense resigned from his term in the 119th Congress (he sent a letter to Johnson and DeSantis saying he doesn't intend to take the oath) to allow for DeSantis to schedule a special election, and I understand that the House doesn't let people un-resign.
Still, what are they going to do if he shows up to take the oath?
|
2024-11-21T10:07:30
|
2025-01-04T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T21:17:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PgtE9lzt6n
|
First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025
|
Currently no confirmed human-to-human transmission. Resolves YES if WHO or CDC confirms first case of human-to-human H5N1 transmission anywhere globally by February 1, 2025. Resolution source: WHO/CDC official announcements.
Next deadline: @/ian/first-confirmed-humantohuman-h5n1-t-zZnInOSz5g
|
2024-11-20T19:12:05
|
2025-01-31T17:00:00
|
2025-02-01T09:05:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q05ZOQ20n6
|
Will Trump pardon anyone by the end of January 2025?
|
Pardon must be formal. Announced intention doesn’t count.
Update 2024-09-12 (PST): A signed pardon will resolve this market as YES. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-11-20T14:29:38
|
2025-01-21T19:05:34
|
2025-01-21T19:05:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9g9d829S2z
|
Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024?
|
This market resolves to YES if Russia launches an RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024. Resolution will be based on confirmation from credible sources such as official Russian/Ukrainian government statements or trusted news sources.
|
2024-11-20T07:07:40
|
2024-12-31T08:31:35
|
2024-12-31T08:31:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8dElzcnn0Z
|
Will Trump declare a national emergency on immigration before February 2025?
|
Donald Trump affirmed on Truth Social that he will "declare a national emergency and will use military assets to reverse the Biden invasion through a mass deportation program."
Will the declaration of the national emergency happen before midnight, Eastern Time, on January 31, 2025? The national emergency should clearly be related to the border or immigration. If it is unclear this market will resolve if at least 3 of (Politico, the New York Times, ABC News, Bloomberg, the Washington Post, and Axios) report that the emergency is about the border or immigration. If Donald Trump is not president before the market's resolution, this will still resolve regardless of who declares the emergency.
|
2024-11-19T10:36:04
|
2025-01-20T21:24:09
|
2025-01-20T21:24:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UzC8pPZlsC
|
Will Bluesky reach 30mn users before 2025?
|
According to these stats: https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats
This counter shows them very neatly: https://bsky-users.theo.io/
|
2024-11-18T15:52:47
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:39:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lcQpUONApO
|
Will the FDP be part of the next German parliament?
|
This will resolve yes, if the FDP is part of the next German parliament. The election is currently set for 23th February 2025, but the market will settle to the result of the earliest federal election of the Bundestag after the 19th November (I.e. the date of the election does not influence the result).
|
2024-11-18T13:29:31
|
2025-03-01T15:59:00
|
2025-03-01T16:33:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hCQPORgcyq
|
Will Elon Musk still be one of the leaders of the Dept of Gov Efficiency on the first of march 2025?
|
This will resolve to yes if the department is still a real or virtual entity and Musk is still one of the named leaders. It will resolve to no if musk has been “fired” from this role or has stepped back from this role publicly.
|
2024-11-18T02:20:19
|
2025-03-01T07:59:00
|
2025-03-01T08:04:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sg9OpRS6Ln
|
Will SpaceX successfully catch the booster again in ift6?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-17T23:28:51
|
2024-11-19T14:07:34
|
2024-11-19T14:07:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gdn0ApdgQy
|
Will Ukraine attack Russia with long-range U.S. missiles before Biden leaves office?
|
The administration of President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to attack Russia with long-range U.S. missiles. Biden is scheduled to leave office on January 20, 2025, and Donald Trump is expected to scale back U.S. aid to Ukraine.
Due to possible subjectivity, I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-11-17T12:51:57
|
2024-11-21T12:59:00
|
2024-11-21T13:01:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EAsSLLqzcU
|
Will January 2025 be the hottest January ever? [NCEI]
|
Will January 2025 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Environmental Information update the predicted date for the release of data. The predicted date can be found in the row labeled January in the Global table at this link.
|
2024-11-17T10:53:42
|
2025-02-12T09:47:23
|
2025-02-12T09:47:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9nqdg0RUEI
|
Bitcoin above $93K on Thanksgiving?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $93,000 on Coinbase at any point on November 28, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on November 28, 2024.
|
2024-11-17T01:39:25
|
2024-11-28T00:17:11
|
2024-11-28T00:17:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8C6NUg86SL
|
Will Bitcoin be over $93,000 on November 22?
|
Will Bitcoin be at or above $93,000 USDT on Binance (BTC/USDT) on
November 22, 23:59 PM (GMT-5)?
Ṁ 1,000 subsidy
|
2024-11-15T17:36:06
|
2024-11-22T20:59:00
|
2024-11-23T04:51:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z9LOOL9In8
|
Will Bitcoin BTC reach $222,222 by 2/2/25? (February 2, 2025)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-15T12:45:54
|
2025-02-03T08:40:00
|
2025-02-04T19:23:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8zqI6z20I6
|
Will Black Myth Wukong win GOTY at "The Game Awards"?
|
Ends December 13, 2024 at 4:30 PM PST
Game of the Year
The Game Awards
GOTY
|
2024-11-15T12:43:15
|
2024-12-14T23:59:00
|
2024-12-28T15:20:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pAIg8lPgpZ
|
Will Jake Paul beat Mike Tyson? 🥊
|
Jake Paul is set to fight Mike Tyson on Friday Nov 15th in Arlington Texas.
https://deepnewz.com/boxing/mike-tyson-58-slaps-jake-paul-weigh-paul-threatens-to-kill-him-nov-15-fight-2cf0994c
[image]Tyson looks like he's in great shape. Videos show him looking ferocious in training, and he slapped Jake Paul at the weigh-ins.
Polymarket and other betting sites have this about 60-65% for Jake Paul.
https://polymarket.com/event/jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win?tid=1731651138787
[image]I think they've done a great job selling the fight. And part of selling the fight is making it seem like the underdog just might win this one.
They've done it before, but this time it may even be true.
Market will resolve YES if Jake Paul is declared the winner [within a week, if it's controversial somehow]. It will still resolve YES if the fight result is over-turned later... but judged a win at the time.
Market will resolve NO in the case of a Tyson win, a draw, a "no contest" or any other result that is not a Jake Paul win.
We will resolve N/A if they don't get in the ring. Once the opening bell rings this will resolve YES or NO. Boxing rules are extremely clear on what is or is not a fight so please don't ask for clarification.
Let's bet this one. I will add more subsidies beyond 10,000 Mana so we can bet this live during the fight as well.
|
2024-11-14T22:17:40
|
2024-11-15T21:36:51
|
2024-11-15T21:36:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uqQd6UdC8l
|
Will Dogecoin reach $1 before the end of the year (2024)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-14T22:16:04
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2025-01-03T06:49:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8NncsANRR2
|
Will Donald Trump attempt to implement mass deportations within his first month in office?
|
Update 2024-25-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Executive order
Policy statement
Lobbying for relevant legislation
|
2024-11-14T18:35:56
|
2025-02-21T20:59:00
|
2025-02-24T08:17:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n9RUR28IE6
|
Will RFK Jr. be confirmed as Secretary of HHS?
|
Trump recently nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services. This role requires assent by the Senate. Will the Senate confirm this nomination?
|
2024-11-14T14:15:36
|
2025-02-01T18:59:00
|
2025-02-17T08:10:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ElN5RZgNdg
|
Will Dogecoin (DOGE) cost >=$1 in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if the price of DOGE is >=$1 at any point in 2024.
Price at market posting: $0.4106
You can bet on a shorter time-framed version of the market here: @/RJDoesIt_/doge-passes-1-by-1120
|
2024-11-14T06:30:42
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-02T10:33:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5I5QqIAulU
|
Will Ghisaline Maxwell Be Reported Dead Within 72 Hours?
|
[image]Yes criteria:
Credible news sources confirm she is dead.
This will resolve in 72 hours. If the death happened before the time but the reporting did not occur, it will resolve No.
|
2024-11-14T00:36:46
|
2024-11-17T23:59:00
|
2024-11-18T01:22:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9dcNCpuA8I
|
Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2024?
|
resolves YES if 100 or more people are infected by the end of 2024 in the US, as reported by this website
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1
[image]
|
2024-11-13T21:01:33
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:46:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-02n9uqqCSl
|
Will Tulsi Gabbard be confirmed as Intelligence Director?
|
resolves yes if congress approves her as pick
|
2024-11-13T20:40:21
|
2025-02-12T11:53:14
|
2025-02-12T11:53:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UzhE8z88zl
|
Will the contents of the Matt Gaetz ethics report be leaked or reported on in detail before January 1, 2025?
|
If it’s a news story, it must quote or describe the actual contents of the report, or a draft of the report, not “according to sources familiar with the report.”
If they publish the report (even if only other House or Senate members can read it) resolves YES.
Note for interested bettors I have high trust in the vetting process used by "mainstream media" reporters and their attorneys, if something appears in print in e.g. the New York Times I am going to assume it is true and not that the reporters are just making something up.
|
2024-11-13T19:55:10
|
2024-12-23T07:41:56
|
2024-12-23T07:41:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2RIAQSUU2Q
|
Kash Patel FBI Director by Jan 31, 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Kash Patel is officially appointed and assumes the role of FBI Director by January 31, 2025, as confirmed by an official government announcement or reliable sources (e.g., major news outlets or government press releases). If he is not appointed by this date, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: January 31, 2025, at 23:59 PST.
|
2024-11-13T18:04:50
|
2025-01-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-01T11:21:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A2QydP9hgn
|
Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed as Attorney General
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-13T15:24:55
|
2024-12-02T11:55:54
|
2024-12-02T11:55:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-88u2sIPEqI
|
Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed by the Senate to become the Attorney General of the US?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-13T12:55:44
|
2024-11-21T10:08:37
|
2024-11-21T10:08:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-REc52ghOdh
|
Will Matt Gaetz be Donald Trump's first Attorney General?
|
Refers to the first person in Trump's second term who is nominated, confirmed by the Senate, and appointed to the post, or who receives a recess appointment.
I may push the close date back if needed.
|
2024-11-13T12:47:10
|
2025-02-07T17:01:51
|
2025-02-07T17:01:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pzyhqUcshn
|
Will Bitcoin be above $100k at the close of December 2024?
|
The market will be resolved according to the data from Tradingview: Binance Spot chart [BTC/USD] at the time of the monthly close. The results will be available 24 hours after closing to resolve.
Update 2024-23-12 (PST): The monthly close will be determined using [UTC +13:45] Chatham Islands timezone (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-11-13T08:05:30
|
2024-12-31T15:00:00
|
2024-12-31T15:04:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gdLnsyyuS9
|
Will the Israel-Hamas War End Within 100 days of Trump Taking Office? [Polymarket]
|
Clone to Polymarket's market:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between November 4, 2024 and April 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hamas military conflict must pertain to the entirety of Gaza, and be declared through official channels by both parties.
A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media source.
Old title:
Will Trump End the Israel-Hamas War Within 100 days of Taking Office? [Polymarket]
New title:
Will the Israel-Hamas War End Within 100 days of Trump Taking Office? [Polymarket]
See also:
[markets]
|
2024-11-13T01:31:32
|
2025-01-21T08:35:48
|
2025-01-21T08:35:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sOh96QhLOc
|
Bitcoin $95K in November?
|
Resolution Criteria: The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $95,000 USD at any point in November 2024, based on a 1-minute candlestick chart from Coinbase. If Bitcoin does not hit $95K during the month, the market resolves “No.” Resolution Date & Time: November 30, 2024, at 23:59 PST, or earlier if Bitcoin crosses $95K in November.
|
2024-11-12T17:45:32
|
2024-11-20T21:31:36
|
2024-11-20T21:31:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AqhO8gt0P6
|
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's first Defense Secretary?
|
Refers to the first person in Trump's second term who is nominated, confirmed by the Senate, and appointed to the post, or who receives a recess appointment.
I may push the close date back if needed.
|
2024-11-12T16:37:40
|
2025-01-25T10:58:54
|
2025-01-25T10:58:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SPcyCsg9O2
|
AOC confirmed pregnant by Jan 6th? 👶 🇺🇸
|
It has been rumored only for two weeks now, with her notable change in appearance and "glowing" mannerism on the live streams.
https://deepnewz.com/celebrities/speculation-grows-over-aoc-s-pregnancy-following-election-influenced-stacey-baby-98cafbc4
[image]Polymarket is trading at 31 cents, up from 16 cents yesterday.
https://polymarket.com/event/aoc-pregnant-in-2024
[image]Resolution via confirmation from AOC. I will bet this market!
|
2024-11-12T11:47:39
|
2025-01-05T20:26:22
|
2025-01-05T20:26:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qAhZAUn8Ah
|
Will Bytedance's deadline to divest from Tiktok be delayed past January 19th?
|
Resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is removed or extended past January 19th 2025, 23:59 ET.
If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok never becomes unavailable to download for the majority of US residents. This applies even if the deadline technically runs out before the extension takes effect.
Otherwise, this market will resolve No as soon as TikTok the deadline is passed and there are no plans for an extension. If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No.
[image]
|
2024-11-12T11:17:08
|
2025-01-18T23:40:43
|
2025-01-18T23:40:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cSQqCOSQCh
|
Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
|
From a recent arXiv preprint,
We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians. The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory. Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days. FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination. Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community. As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.
This question resolves to YES if the state-of-the-art average accuracy score on the FrontierMath benchmark, as reported prior to midnight, January 1st 2026 Pacific Time, is above 30.0% for any fully-automated computer method. Credible reports include but are not limited to blog posts, arXiv preprints, and papers. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
I will use my discretion in determining whether a result should be considered valid. Obvious cheating, such as including the test set in the training data, does not count.
See also:
@/MatthewBarnett/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o
@/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ
|
2024-11-12T03:20:51
|
2025-01-31T13:31:27
|
2025-01-31T13:31:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IEgh0cLNtC
|
Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out within 45 days of the inauguration?
|
To define falling out:
A dismissal from any positions associated to the White House
A public feud on any social media platform that results in a “block” of the other party by one of the other parties
more than 3 credible news reports indicating Musk is less close with Trump; only 2 are needed if a pejorative nickname is given to Elon
|
2024-11-12T00:02:32
|
2025-03-06T21:59:00
|
2025-03-08T11:59:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SAcECLN9h2
|
Bitcoin above $87K on Nov 30?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin exceeds $87,000 on Coinbase at any point on November 30, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on November 30, 2024.
|
2024-11-11T19:29:26
|
2024-11-30T23:59:00
|
2024-12-01T00:20:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Sg9UNdS5p
|
Will Bitcoin hit 100K in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-11T17:36:55
|
2024-12-06T13:23:48
|
2024-12-06T13:23:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-28ZsONLPNZ
|
Will Bitcoin reach $111,111 USD before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if it reaches 111111 USD on multiple mainstream exchanges by my judgement
|
2024-11-11T15:53:30
|
2024-12-31T15:52:00
|
2025-01-01T15:46:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S5SQO9yORz
|
Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada?
|
This question resolves YES if Trump imposes any tariffs on Canada during his second term that were not already in place.
This question will only resolve once tariffs are actually in effect, or when Trump's second term ends.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mainstream Media Confirmation Requirement
The market will resolve YES only after there is confirmation from mainstream media that goods have been sold with the tariff applied.
This evidence is required as proof that the tariff is effectively in place.
Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Evidence Requirement Clarification:
Proof of Transaction: The market will resolve YES if verifiable evidence shows that money has changed hands as a result of Trump's tariffs on Canada.
Post-Tariff Removal: Even if the tariffs are later removed, the market will resolve YES if there is proof that tariff money was paid.
Resolution Status: Without such evidence, the market will remain unresolved.
Update 2025-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Acceptable Evidence Clarification:
Media Articles: An article from a reputable mainstream source (such as Reuters) that documents tariff-related transactions qualifies as acceptable evidence.
Real-World Effect: Evidence must show a tangible impact—for example, that money actually changed hands as a result of the tariffs, rather than a mere announcement that tariffs exist.
Post-Tariff Situation: Even if the tariffs are subsequently removed, such evidence still results in a YES resolution.
|
2024-11-11T11:13:18
|
2025-03-07T06:13:43
|
2025-03-07T06:13:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gIOLPIC8N5
|
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 before Nov 16?
|
Source of results will be GMT-5
From Binance’s BTC/USDT pair
|
2024-11-11T01:26:20
|
2024-11-13T06:33:57
|
2024-11-13T06:33:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ASAq8SAPnO
|
Will TSLA reach >$ 420 before 8pm EST on February 18?
|
Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$420 ($420.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on February 18th (2025 obviously)
For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com)
|
2024-11-10T21:31:14
|
2024-12-12T13:13:11
|
2024-12-12T13:13:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LP8cORILP6
|
Will Mariah’s All I Want for Christmas Is You Reach #1 on Billboard in November 2024?
|
Billboard’s Hot 100 edition are weekly leaderboards with a Saturday date, and there are 2 Saturday’s at the end of this month: the 23rd and the 30th.
Since 2019, Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You has reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the month of November every year (seen below and here). Will she do it again this year?
Can Mariah Carey get her 6th consecutive #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before December?
Resolves NO on December 1st.
[image]
|
2024-11-10T15:52:04
|
2024-11-30T23:59:00
|
2024-12-13T11:54:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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