id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-QztPU6u62O | Will there be another assassination of a fortune 500 executive before the UHC killer is caught? | Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will remain open indefinitely if the killer's body is never found.
Update 2024-10-12 (PST): The market will be resolved as No since the killer has already been caught. (AI summary of creator comment) | 2024-12-08T13:58:44 | 2024-12-10T06:09:26 | 2024-12-10T06:09:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cQ89nR05hZ | Did Bashar al-Assad die in a plane crash on December 7th (PST)? | Some reports on social media claim that Assad was on a plane out of Syriah that crashed near Homs today 12/7 (PST time zone). This resolved YES if Assad was in fact on an airplane today that crashed and he died as a consequence of that crash. It does not have to be near Homs or on a flight that was in fact heading out ... | 2024-12-07T20:41:28 | 2024-12-08T12:38:09 | 2024-12-08T12:38:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tyy2hs8P8P | Assad dead in 2024? | This market resolves YES if Bashar al-Assad, former President of Syria, is confirmed dead before 31 Dec 2024. If he is dead prior to market creation, it still resolves YES. This will resolve NO if credible sources prove he's alive at the end of this year.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If Assad's... | 2024-12-07T20:02:30 | 2025-01-01T09:02:06 | 2025-01-01T09:02:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9LzuNcUOcP | Will the shooter of Brian Thompson of UnitedHealthcare be arrested by the end of February 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-12-07T03:53:28 | 2024-12-09T12:33:40 | 2024-12-09T12:33:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nUng5A0C0O | Will OpenAI release o2 (or o3) as part of the 12 days of Christmas? | https://x.com/sama/with_replies
Update 2024-19-12 (PST): The market will resolve as YES if OpenAI releases either o2 or o3 as part of the 12 days of Christmas. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-20-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A release is defined as allowing access to a larger set of people
... | 2024-12-06T18:06:48 | 2024-12-20T14:36:14 | 2024-12-21T14:14:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5NyIO26ltt | Will Assad flee Syria by 2025? | This should be pretty clear, but obviously temporary visits abroad will not count. To help distinguish between visits and flight, this question can only resolve YES if the Syrian government loses Damascus.
Internal retreats, including to Alawite-majority Latakia and Tartus, will not count.
If Assad is killed while on... | 2024-12-06T16:47:45 | 2024-12-08T00:48:12 | 2024-12-08T10:17:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8OdugR6hRO | Are these two supposed pictures of the United Healthcare CEO assassin actually different people? | People have pointed out their jackets, bags, and facial features might not line up.
[image][image]Remember, kids: YES = DIFFERENT people, NO = SAME person.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on official police sources and creator's judgment. Resolution may be delayed unt... | 2024-12-05T18:28:30 | 2024-12-27T20:27:36 | 2024-12-27T20:27:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PSU0hCclcS | Will Jimmy Carter blaze through April 20, 2025? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy Carter is alive on April 21, 2025. EST. Resolves No if he dies.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JCDM/which-days-will-jimmy-carter-be-ali-d7d632de70ae?play=true) | 2024-12-05T18:02:13 | 2024-12-29T16:24:26 | 2024-12-29T16:24:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LyEIhOAzLS | Will a tsunami kill >10 people in California in the next 10 days? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-12-05T11:01:42 | 2024-12-15T23:59:00 | 2024-12-16T09:41:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zy6Uc2ERCR | Will the UnitedHealthcare killer kill or attempt to kill again? | A major manhunt is ongoing for the killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. The killer shot and killed Thompson during a daytime attack in what is being described as a planned killing.
CNN reports that other major US healthcare executives are now increasing their security measures in wake of the killing:
"“The... | 2024-12-05T08:54:18 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:09:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uulE22E5Qd | Bitcoin above $100K on Dec 14? | Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 on Coinbase at any point on December 14, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on Decemb... | 2024-12-04T23:51:27 | 2024-12-14T01:07:37 | 2024-12-14T01:07:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uPghU6yqzC | Bitcoin $110K in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-12-04T20:02:36 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:03:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gdEzgIEq6t | Bitcoin $120K in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-12-04T20:01:24 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:02:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Cn8q6SscC6 | Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024? | [image]Admin clarification before sweepifying:
If somebody is arrested who the mainstream media/police claim is the killer this will resolve as YES immediately. They do not have to be found guilty and if they end up being released as not the killer the market will remain resolved as yes.
Possible clarification from cr... | 2024-12-04T12:39:23 | 2024-12-09T12:22:47 | 2024-12-09T12:22:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c0Anqtuh2l | Will the United Healthcare CEO shooter be caught by June 2025? | I see no reason to be hasty but I do anticipate closing this soonish.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
Market will resolve YES if the shooter is found dead
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The shooter does not need to be convicted to resolve YES - being caught/found is sufficien... | 2024-12-04T12:02:51 | 2024-12-10T20:21:13 | 2024-12-10T20:21:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-q0gElppAPu | Will the killing of United Healthcare’s CEO be tied to a denial of service decision the company made by March 1st, 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-12-04T08:40:23 | 2025-03-01T20:59:00 | 2025-03-03T16:23:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ISAphSINc2 | Murderer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson caught before January 3, 2025 | This market resolves YES if the person responsible for the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is identified and apprehended by law enforcement before January 3, 2025. Resolution will be based on official statements from the NYPD or major news outlets confirming an arrest.
References:
https://www.fox5ny.com... | 2024-12-04T07:51:44 | 2024-12-09T11:05:03 | 2024-12-09T11:05:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9ZZzny5clO | Doomsday Clock set at less than 90 seconds to midnight by January 2025 | The Doomsday Clock is a symbol representing how close humanity is to global catastrophe.
This market resolves based on the official announcement from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in early 2025.
Resolution Criteria:
Market resolves YES if the clock is set to any time less than 90 seconds to midnight.
Resolve... | 2024-12-04T04:18:25 | 2025-01-28T10:58:34 | 2025-01-28T10:58:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nOq6RPZ8Qp | Will Biden have granted more pardon petitions than Trump (2017-2021)? | We will use: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-statistics
Trump(2017-2021) granted 144 pardon petitions. | 2024-12-04T01:47:29 | 2025-01-21T14:59:00 | 2025-02-01T06:20:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O9zZLA8dt5 | Will Trump suggest repealing the 22nd Amendment (term limits) before inauguration? | Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A statement like "I suspect I won't be running again unless you say, 'He's so good we've got to figure something else out'" does not count as a suggestion to repeal the 22nd Amendment.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Statements suggesting that the... | 2024-12-03T19:46:13 | 2025-01-20T22:13:03 | 2025-01-20T22:13:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SIUy62zynh | Will Yoon Suk Yeol still be Korean president on Jan 6th 2025? 🇰🇷 | He ran what appears to be an unsuccessful coup. Or a moment of madness?
https://deepnewz.com/world/south-korea-s-yoon-declares-martial-law-u-s-notification-u-s-expresses-serious-5944dca9
[image]Will he still be president on Jan 6th 2025 Korean Time -- resolves midnight Korean time.
YES if he is still in office. NO i... | 2024-12-03T14:08:47 | 2025-01-05T20:20:21 | 2025-01-05T20:20:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2UzCdhgQ6y | Will Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol be impeached [⚠ and gone] before January 3rd 2025? | Criteria for a “Yes” Resolution:
• Completed Impeachment Process: President Yoon Suk Yeol has been impeached as defined in point 1 above, with both the National Assembly’s passage of the impeachment motion and the Constitutional Court’s confirmation occurring before 11:59 PM Korean Standard Time (KST) on January 2nd, ... | 2024-12-03T08:51:42 | 2025-01-02T21:59:00 | 2025-01-03T11:48:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gR89Q6dhdI | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested before 2026? | Background
Yoon Suk-yeol is the current President of South Korea, serving since May 2022. On December 3, 2024, he declared martial law in response to perceived threats from the opposition. His presidency has been marked by various controversies and political challenges, including a major defeat for his party in recent... | 2024-12-03T08:08:51 | 2025-01-15T20:33:55 | 2025-01-15T20:33:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cZInLlIzhS | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on January 1, 2025? | Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve YES if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the title of president on January 1, 2025, even if he is suspended from his duties due to impeachment.
Update 2024-29-12 (PST): - In the event that Yoon Suk Yeol is arrested, the market will only resolve to YES if the ar... | 2024-12-03T07:57:58 | 2025-01-01T07:59:00 | 2025-01-01T13:11:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lSpAtILdIu | Will South Korea be under martial law on January 1st 2025? | I will not bet.
I am happy to accept advice on how resolution criteria, but it seems that unless the President of South Korea specifies an end date in advance, martial law will continue until it is declared lifted. | 2024-12-03T06:13:17 | 2024-12-30T22:00:00 | 2025-01-01T13:11:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qqs8gZsIZC | Will Syrian rebels control Homs by June 30, 2025? | Resolves YES if Syrian rebels (HTS or other anti-government groups) control the entire city of Homs for any period of time before the end of June 2025. So if the rebels capture Homs, they wouldn't necessarily need to hold it through June 30, 2025 for the question to resolve as YES.
Resolves NO if the city remains in g... | 2024-12-03T06:06:51 | 2024-12-07T17:48:18 | 2024-12-07T17:48:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0LSNQSpghz | Biden pardons Fauci? | Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if President Joe Biden officially pardons Anthony Fauci for any alleged crimes or offenses during his presidency, as confirmed by an official announcement, executive order, or credible news sources.
• If no such pardon is issued by the resolution date, the market resolve... | 2024-12-02T18:46:43 | 2025-01-20T12:36:42 | 2025-01-20T12:36:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p2EsOhSEOg | Donald Trump meets with Marine Le Pen during his Paris trip | This market resolves based on whether Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen have a confirmed in-person meeting during Trump's upcoming visit to Paris.
Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if reputable news sources (Reuters, AP, AFP) or official statements from Trump/Le Pen's offices confirm they met in person. Market res... | 2024-12-02T18:19:45 | 2024-12-09T16:00:00 | 2024-12-10T09:11:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-syq5cQpCL0 | Will Biden have pardoned more people than Trump (2017-2021)? | Trump issued 144 pardons on his first term.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve based on Federal marijuana pardons issued by Biden compared to Trump's 144 pardons. | 2024-12-02T02:08:33 | 2024-12-04T01:34:41 | 2024-12-04T01:34:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C0lSssnZIu | Trump team releases Epstein/Diddy information before January 31st, 2025. | Resolves YES if Donald Trump, Elon Musk or his team officially releases substantial new information about either the Epstein or Diddy cases before January 31st, 2025. Must be verifiable through major news sources and contain significant new revelations not previously public. | 2024-12-01T22:42:29 | 2025-01-31T16:00:00 | 2025-01-31T18:00:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2QCh0ZRL68 | Bitcoin below $90K in December? | Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $90,000 USD at any point during December 2024, based on the last price in any 1-minute candlestick on Coinbase.
• If Bitcoin does not fall below $90K during December 2024, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2024, ... | 2024-12-01T20:40:20 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:01:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tUL52IcOz0 | Will Bashar Al-Assad remain in power throughout 2025? | Background
Bashar al-Assad has been the President of Syria since 2000 and has maintained power through a devastating civil war that began in 2011. He currently controls most of Syria's territory with strong military and political backing from Russia and Iran. Recent developments include Syria's readmission to the Arab... | 2024-12-01T14:07:23 | 2024-12-07T23:34:31 | 2024-12-07T23:34:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hqRAUC8A5S | Will the Bitcoin hit $99K in December 2024? | Background
Bitcoin recently touched the $99K mark following news of Gary Gensler's resignation as SEC chair, but subsequently experienced corrections, dropping below $93K. The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, influenced by regulatory changes, market sentiment, and various macroeconomic factors.
Resolution Crit... | 2024-12-01T07:34:11 | 2024-12-04T15:34:07 | 2024-12-04T15:34:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pSCztCzOER | Will there be a new major LLM released by OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2024? | Models that would count:
GPT-5, o1 (not preview), Claude 3.5 Opus, Claude 4.0 Sonnet
Models that would not count: GPT-4o-12-2024, Claude-3.5 Sonnet-12-2024
I will decide ambiguous models how I see fit. | 2024-12-01T07:33:33 | 2024-12-05T11:00:30 | 2024-12-05T11:00:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c5h956ChLO | Will Kash Patel be FBI Director? | This market will be settle as YES if Kash Patel becomes Director of the FBI by the close date of the market.
The market may close early as NO if Trump at some point withdraws his nomination or a consensus of credible reporting indicates the president is no longer pursuing the nomination.
Update: Becoming Acting Dir... | 2024-11-30T17:30:24 | 2025-02-28T17:56:09 | 2025-02-28T17:56:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8s90AUyQAL | Will pro-HTS rebels be in Damascus province at the end of the year? | They have almost entered Hama. If they enter Damascus province but withdraw before the end of the year, this will count as No.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Pro-HTS rebels entering Damascus province as part of a post-Assad coalition government will count as Yes. | 2024-11-30T09:42:20 | 2025-01-01T05:09:59 | 2025-01-01T05:09:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-l8y6t0cgs8 | Will Assad government forces control the Syrian Presidential Palace in Damascus on January 1st, 2025? | Resolves based on a consensus of credible media reporting as to whether government forces under the command of Bashar Al Assad control the presidential palace.. Contested control (i.e. active fighting) resolves to no. | 2024-11-29T12:52:49 | 2024-12-08T05:25:12 | 2024-12-08T05:25:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LEhn8Itu50 | Will OpenAI launch or announce something new on ChatGPT’s anniversary tomorrow? | ChatGPT was launched by OpenAI on November 30, 2022, marking a significant milestone in AI development. While OpenAI regularly releases updates and new features, they typically don't announce major launches in advance.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if OpenAI officially launches or announces a new p... | 2024-11-29T09:03:03 | 2024-12-01T05:06:39 | 2024-12-01T05:06:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-90PUqhqIu2 | Will Anthropic have a Super Bowl ad? | Prompted by this tweet from @ZviMowshowitz : https://x.com/TheZvi/status/1862207253073256786
To bet on OpenAI:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MichaelWheatley/companies-with-super-bowl-ads?play=true) | 2024-11-28T15:42:19 | 2025-02-10T07:56:00 | 2025-02-10T07:56:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CNdOZUlCSQ | Bitcoin above $95K on Dec 8? | Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $95,000 on Coinbase at any point on December 8, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on December... | 2024-11-27T21:56:06 | 2024-12-08T02:11:04 | 2024-12-08T02:11:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-phNPgOEdgR | Trump signs executive order imposing 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada goods on January 20, 2025 | This market resolves based on whether Donald Trump signs an executive order on his first day in office (January 20, 2025) imposing a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada.
Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if Trump signs such an executive order on January 20, 2025, and NO otherwise. This will be verifi... | 2024-11-26T03:26:02 | 2025-01-20T16:00:00 | 2025-01-22T08:03:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u0SICAtqEy | Will Trump institute a transgender military ban within 24 hours of taking office? | This market resolves YES if Donald Trump, upon taking office as President in 2025, issues an executive order or similar directive banning transgender individuals from serving in the US military within his first 24 hours as president. Market resolves NO if no such ban is instituted within the first 24 hours.
Resolution... | 2024-11-25T18:56:01 | 2025-01-20T17:08:58 | 2025-01-20T17:08:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-unUtCSQOs6 | If Bitcoin goes over 100k$, will it reach 115k within one week? | Question is, if Bitcoin surpasses 100k, will it shoot straight up within the same week to at least 115k?
YES if it increases at least 15k USD in the week following to hitting* 100k.
NO if it never reaches 115k after a week.
N/A in the event BTC doesn't reaches 100k at all - the market will be reasonably extended but... | 2024-11-25T17:35:27 | 2024-12-11T19:30:00 | 2024-12-11T19:30:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rudl0Sp0U0 | TikTok banned in the US by May 2025? | Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if TikTok is officially banned from operating in the United States by May 31, 2025, as confirmed by credible sources such as government announcements, legislation, or major news outlets.
• A ban must prevent TikTok from being legally accessible to the general public in t... | 2024-11-25T00:45:01 | 2025-03-04T14:38:26 | 2025-03-04T14:38:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-60pZcnCNEy | SpaceX conducts at least one Starship launch every month in 2025 | SpaceX aims to conduct 25 Starship launches in 2025, requiring consistent monthly launches to achieve this goal.
Market resolves YES if SpaceX conducts at least one Starship launch in each calendar month of 2025 (January through December). Market resolves NO if any month passes without a launch. | 2024-11-24T17:26:32 | 2025-03-02T01:15:58 | 2025-03-02T01:15:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8zR5uc8Pzp | Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be unrenewable in 2025? | Weaker version of https://manifold.markets/JessicaEvans/will-transgender-us-passports-with
For an N=1 case study, see https://manifold.markets/KJW_01294/will-kimmys-transgender-mtf-passpor
Will a trans-allied news source like Erin Reed, them.us, NCTE, etc. report that many people (N>=5) whose gender marker differs fr... | 2024-11-24T08:15:00 | 2025-02-02T15:53:59 | 2025-02-02T15:53:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yRc2lZzc8c | Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next Director of National Intelligence? | clearing ambiguity from a related question.
This resolves ‘yes’ if she ever holds the title, whether it’s confirmation by Congress or appointment during recess. It resolves ‘no’ if she declines, is denied by congress, or someone else is appointed to the role. | 2024-11-23T23:57:01 | 2025-02-12T12:08:43 | 2025-02-12T12:08:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AREcuUtO26 | Bitcoin above $110K on Christmas? | Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $110,000 on Coinbase at any point on December 25, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on Decemb... | 2024-11-23T20:12:45 | 2024-12-25T23:59:00 | 2024-12-26T09:34:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NzyE2UZysy | Will Liverpool beat Manchester City? | Liverpool is scheduled to play Manchester City at home on December 1st. Resolves YES if Liverpool wins the match, NO if it's a draw or Manchester City wins.
This market is about the Liverpool vs. Man City Premier League match at Liverpool, not any other match between these teams.
If the match is postponed, this marke... | 2024-11-23T13:01:54 | 2024-12-01T10:26:14 | 2024-12-01T10:26:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hPLuyhg8pO | Will Donald Trump pardon Hunter Biden? | Background
Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden's son, faces multiple federal charges including tax-related crimes and a firearms violation. Former President Donald Trump, in recent interviews, has suggested he would be open to pardoning Hunter Biden if re-elected, despite being a political opponent of the Biden family.
... | 2024-11-23T03:41:20 | 2024-12-02T10:12:26 | 2024-12-02T10:12:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UpUSyE2tEA | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2025-01-20? | This market resolves to "Yes" if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in a direct military application (not a test) before January 20, 2025. Direct military application includes any intentional use as a weapon during a conflict but excludes tests, accidents, or threats.
The market resolves to "N/A" if Russia ceases to exist ... | 2024-11-22T11:27:17 | 2025-01-20T21:59:00 | 2025-01-21T07:01:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0z85nsPZZy | Will Russia launch another ICBM or IRBM in 2024? | This market resolves YES if Russia launches a ICBM or IRBM before Jan 1, 2025
It doesn't have to hit Ukraine. Test launches count, but only if it makes it off the launch pad. | 2024-11-22T07:04:28 | 2025-01-01T08:59:00 | 2025-01-01T09:03:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pc8PyStCyh | Bitcoin hits $100K in less than 48 hours? | Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $100,000 USD by November 24, 2024, at 4:00 AM PST, based on data from Coinbase.
• The price must be reflected as the last price in any 1-minute candlestick within the 48-hour period.
• If Bitcoin does not hit $100K within the specifie... | 2024-11-22T03:52:34 | 2024-11-24T04:00:00 | 2024-11-24T08:43:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0CLsI06LQq | Bitcoin above $100K on Thanksgiving? | Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 on Coinbase at any point on November 28, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on Novemb... | 2024-11-22T02:27:23 | 2024-11-28T23:59:00 | 2024-11-29T00:39:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pS0IdsuzSL | Trump creates Bitcoin reserve in 100 days? | Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald J. Trump, during the first 100 days of his presidency starting January 20, 2025, officially announces or signs an executive order to create a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, as confirmed by credible sources (e.g., official government statements, press releases, or major n... | 2024-11-22T01:47:02 | 2025-03-06T18:37:22 | 2025-03-06T18:37:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NIlyhQyLdg | Will Elon do his X jump at the inauguration? | [image] | 2024-11-21T20:16:23 | 2025-01-20T22:59:00 | 2025-01-21T06:04:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P882upQulC | Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before Nov 29? | Resolves based if the Coinbase BTC-USD market has traded at or above $100,000 before 00:00 ET Nov 29 | 2024-11-21T15:12:19 | 2024-11-29T06:25:43 | 2024-11-29T06:25:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hPlOC2sURt | Will Matt Gaetz take the House oath of office on January 3rd, 2025? | He has in some sense resigned from his term in the 119th Congress (he sent a letter to Johnson and DeSantis saying he doesn't intend to take the oath) to allow for DeSantis to schedule a special election, and I understand that the House doesn't let people un-resign.
Still, what are they going to do if he shows up to t... | 2024-11-21T10:07:30 | 2025-01-04T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T21:17:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PgtE9lzt6n | First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025 | Currently no confirmed human-to-human transmission. Resolves YES if WHO or CDC confirms first case of human-to-human H5N1 transmission anywhere globally by February 1, 2025. Resolution source: WHO/CDC official announcements.
Next deadline: @/ian/first-confirmed-humantohuman-h5n1-t-zZnInOSz5g | 2024-11-20T19:12:05 | 2025-01-31T17:00:00 | 2025-02-01T09:05:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-q05ZOQ20n6 | Will Trump pardon anyone by the end of January 2025? | Pardon must be formal. Announced intention doesn’t count.
Update 2024-09-12 (PST): A signed pardon will resolve this market as YES. (AI summary of creator comment) | 2024-11-20T14:29:38 | 2025-01-21T19:05:34 | 2025-01-21T19:05:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9g9d829S2z | Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024? | This market resolves to YES if Russia launches an RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024. Resolution will be based on confirmation from credible sources such as official Russian/Ukrainian government statements or trusted news sources. | 2024-11-20T07:07:40 | 2024-12-31T08:31:35 | 2024-12-31T08:31:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8dElzcnn0Z | Will Trump declare a national emergency on immigration before February 2025? | Donald Trump affirmed on Truth Social that he will "declare a national emergency and will use military assets to reverse the Biden invasion through a mass deportation program."
Will the declaration of the national emergency happen before midnight, Eastern Time, on January 31, 2025? The national emergency should clearl... | 2024-11-19T10:36:04 | 2025-01-20T21:24:09 | 2025-01-20T21:24:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UzC8pPZlsC | Will Bluesky reach 30mn users before 2025? | According to these stats: https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats
This counter shows them very neatly: https://bsky-users.theo.io/
| 2024-11-18T15:52:47 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-04T02:39:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lcQpUONApO | Will the FDP be part of the next German parliament? | This will resolve yes, if the FDP is part of the next German parliament. The election is currently set for 23th February 2025, but the market will settle to the result of the earliest federal election of the Bundestag after the 19th November (I.e. the date of the election does not influence the result). | 2024-11-18T13:29:31 | 2025-03-01T15:59:00 | 2025-03-01T16:33:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hCQPORgcyq | Will Elon Musk still be one of the leaders of the Dept of Gov Efficiency on the first of march 2025? | This will resolve to yes if the department is still a real or virtual entity and Musk is still one of the named leaders. It will resolve to no if musk has been “fired” from this role or has stepped back from this role publicly. | 2024-11-18T02:20:19 | 2025-03-01T07:59:00 | 2025-03-01T08:04:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sg9OpRS6Ln | Will SpaceX successfully catch the booster again in ift6? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-17T23:28:51 | 2024-11-19T14:07:34 | 2024-11-19T14:07:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gdn0ApdgQy | Will Ukraine attack Russia with long-range U.S. missiles before Biden leaves office? | The administration of President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to attack Russia with long-range U.S. missiles. Biden is scheduled to leave office on January 20, 2025, and Donald Trump is expected to scale back U.S. aid to Ukraine.
Due to possible subjectivity, I will not bet on this market. | 2024-11-17T12:51:57 | 2024-11-21T12:59:00 | 2024-11-21T13:01:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EAsSLLqzcU | Will January 2025 be the hottest January ever? [NCEI] | Will January 2025 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Envi... | 2024-11-17T10:53:42 | 2025-02-12T09:47:23 | 2025-02-12T09:47:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9nqdg0RUEI | Bitcoin above $93K on Thanksgiving? | Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $93,000 on Coinbase at any point on November 28, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on Novembe... | 2024-11-17T01:39:25 | 2024-11-28T00:17:11 | 2024-11-28T00:17:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8C6NUg86SL | Will Bitcoin be over $93,000 on November 22? | Will Bitcoin be at or above $93,000 USDT on Binance (BTC/USDT) on
November 22, 23:59 PM (GMT-5)?
Ṁ 1,000 subsidy | 2024-11-15T17:36:06 | 2024-11-22T20:59:00 | 2024-11-23T04:51:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z9LOOL9In8 | Will Bitcoin BTC reach $222,222 by 2/2/25? (February 2, 2025) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-15T12:45:54 | 2025-02-03T08:40:00 | 2025-02-04T19:23:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8zqI6z20I6 | Will Black Myth Wukong win GOTY at "The Game Awards"? | Ends December 13, 2024 at 4:30 PM PST
Game of the Year
The Game Awards
GOTY | 2024-11-15T12:43:15 | 2024-12-14T23:59:00 | 2024-12-28T15:20:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pAIg8lPgpZ | Will Jake Paul beat Mike Tyson? 🥊 | Jake Paul is set to fight Mike Tyson on Friday Nov 15th in Arlington Texas.
https://deepnewz.com/boxing/mike-tyson-58-slaps-jake-paul-weigh-paul-threatens-to-kill-him-nov-15-fight-2cf0994c
[image]Tyson looks like he's in great shape. Videos show him looking ferocious in training, and he slapped Jake Paul at the weigh... | 2024-11-14T22:17:40 | 2024-11-15T21:36:51 | 2024-11-15T21:36:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uqQd6UdC8l | Will Dogecoin reach $1 before the end of the year (2024)? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-14T22:16:04 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2025-01-03T06:49:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8NncsANRR2 | Will Donald Trump attempt to implement mass deportations within his first month in office? | Update 2024-25-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Executive order
Policy statement
Lobbying for relevant legislation | 2024-11-14T18:35:56 | 2025-02-21T20:59:00 | 2025-02-24T08:17:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n9RUR28IE6 | Will RFK Jr. be confirmed as Secretary of HHS? | Trump recently nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services. This role requires assent by the Senate. Will the Senate confirm this nomination? | 2024-11-14T14:15:36 | 2025-02-01T18:59:00 | 2025-02-17T08:10:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ElN5RZgNdg | Will Dogecoin (DOGE) cost >=$1 in 2024? | Resolves YES if the price of DOGE is >=$1 at any point in 2024.
Price at market posting: $0.4106
You can bet on a shorter time-framed version of the market here: @/RJDoesIt_/doge-passes-1-by-1120 | 2024-11-14T06:30:42 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-02T10:33:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5I5QqIAulU | Will Ghisaline Maxwell Be Reported Dead Within 72 Hours? | [image]Yes criteria:
Credible news sources confirm she is dead.
This will resolve in 72 hours. If the death happened before the time but the reporting did not occur, it will resolve No. | 2024-11-14T00:36:46 | 2024-11-17T23:59:00 | 2024-11-18T01:22:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9dcNCpuA8I | Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2024? | resolves YES if 100 or more people are infected by the end of 2024 in the US, as reported by this website
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1
[image] | 2024-11-13T21:01:33 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:46:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-02n9uqqCSl | Will Tulsi Gabbard be confirmed as Intelligence Director? | resolves yes if congress approves her as pick | 2024-11-13T20:40:21 | 2025-02-12T11:53:14 | 2025-02-12T11:53:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UzhE8z88zl | Will the contents of the Matt Gaetz ethics report be leaked or reported on in detail before January 1, 2025? | If it’s a news story, it must quote or describe the actual contents of the report, or a draft of the report, not “according to sources familiar with the report.”
If they publish the report (even if only other House or Senate members can read it) resolves YES.
Note for interested bettors I have high trust in the vetti... | 2024-11-13T19:55:10 | 2024-12-23T07:41:56 | 2024-12-23T07:41:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2RIAQSUU2Q | Kash Patel FBI Director by Jan 31, 2025? | Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Kash Patel is officially appointed and assumes the role of FBI Director by January 31, 2025, as confirmed by an official government announcement or reliable sources (e.g., major news outlets or government press releases). If he is not appointed by this date, the market... | 2024-11-13T18:04:50 | 2025-01-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-01T11:21:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-A2QydP9hgn | Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed as Attorney General | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-13T15:24:55 | 2024-12-02T11:55:54 | 2024-12-02T11:55:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-88u2sIPEqI | Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed by the Senate to become the Attorney General of the US? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-13T12:55:44 | 2024-11-21T10:08:37 | 2024-11-21T10:08:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-REc52ghOdh | Will Matt Gaetz be Donald Trump's first Attorney General? | Refers to the first person in Trump's second term who is nominated, confirmed by the Senate, and appointed to the post, or who receives a recess appointment.
I may push the close date back if needed. | 2024-11-13T12:47:10 | 2025-02-07T17:01:51 | 2025-02-07T17:01:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pzyhqUcshn | Will Bitcoin be above $100k at the close of December 2024? | The market will be resolved according to the data from Tradingview: Binance Spot chart [BTC/USD] at the time of the monthly close. The results will be available 24 hours after closing to resolve.
Update 2024-23-12 (PST): The monthly close will be determined using [UTC +13:45] Chatham Islands timezone (AI summary of cr... | 2024-11-13T08:05:30 | 2024-12-31T15:00:00 | 2024-12-31T15:04:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gdLnsyyuS9 | Will the Israel-Hamas War End Within 100 days of Trump Taking Office? [Polymarket] | Clone to Polymarket's market:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between November 4, 2024 and April 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
To count toward the resolution of this mar... | 2024-11-13T01:31:32 | 2025-01-21T08:35:48 | 2025-01-21T08:35:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sOh96QhLOc | Bitcoin $95K in November? | Resolution Criteria: The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $95,000 USD at any point in November 2024, based on a 1-minute candlestick chart from Coinbase. If Bitcoin does not hit $95K during the month, the market resolves “No.” Resolution Date & Time: November 30, 2024, at 23:59 PST, or earlier ... | 2024-11-12T17:45:32 | 2024-11-20T21:31:36 | 2024-11-20T21:31:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AqhO8gt0P6 | Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's first Defense Secretary? | Refers to the first person in Trump's second term who is nominated, confirmed by the Senate, and appointed to the post, or who receives a recess appointment.
I may push the close date back if needed. | 2024-11-12T16:37:40 | 2025-01-25T10:58:54 | 2025-01-25T10:58:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SPcyCsg9O2 | AOC confirmed pregnant by Jan 6th? 👶 🇺🇸 | It has been rumored only for two weeks now, with her notable change in appearance and "glowing" mannerism on the live streams.
https://deepnewz.com/celebrities/speculation-grows-over-aoc-s-pregnancy-following-election-influenced-stacey-baby-98cafbc4
[image]Polymarket is trading at 31 cents, up from 16 cents yesterday.... | 2024-11-12T11:47:39 | 2025-01-05T20:26:22 | 2025-01-05T20:26:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qAhZAUn8Ah | Will Bytedance's deadline to divest from Tiktok be delayed past January 19th? | Resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is removed or extended past January 19th 2025, 23:59 ET.
If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok nev... | 2024-11-12T11:17:08 | 2025-01-18T23:40:43 | 2025-01-18T23:40:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cSQqCOSQCh | Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026? | From a recent arXiv preprint,
We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians. The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real an... | 2024-11-12T03:20:51 | 2025-01-31T13:31:27 | 2025-01-31T13:31:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IEgh0cLNtC | Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out within 45 days of the inauguration? | To define falling out:
A dismissal from any positions associated to the White House
A public feud on any social media platform that results in a “block” of the other party by one of the other parties
more than 3 credible news reports indicating Musk is less close with Trump; only 2 are needed if a pejorative nicknam... | 2024-11-12T00:02:32 | 2025-03-06T21:59:00 | 2025-03-08T11:59:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SAcECLN9h2 | Bitcoin above $87K on Nov 30? | Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin exceeds $87,000 on Coinbase at any point on November 30, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on November 30, 2024... | 2024-11-11T19:29:26 | 2024-11-30T23:59:00 | 2024-12-01T00:20:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Sg9UNdS5p | Will Bitcoin hit 100K in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-11T17:36:55 | 2024-12-06T13:23:48 | 2024-12-06T13:23:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-28ZsONLPNZ | Will Bitcoin reach $111,111 USD before the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if it reaches 111111 USD on multiple mainstream exchanges by my judgement | 2024-11-11T15:53:30 | 2024-12-31T15:52:00 | 2025-01-01T15:46:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S5SQO9yORz | Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada? | This question resolves YES if Trump imposes any tariffs on Canada during his second term that were not already in place.
This question will only resolve once tariffs are actually in effect, or when Trump's second term ends.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mainstream Media Confirmation Require... | 2024-11-11T11:13:18 | 2025-03-07T06:13:43 | 2025-03-07T06:13:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gIOLPIC8N5 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 before Nov 16? | Source of results will be GMT-5
From Binance’s BTC/USDT pair | 2024-11-11T01:26:20 | 2024-11-13T06:33:57 | 2024-11-13T06:33:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ASAq8SAPnO | Will TSLA reach >$ 420 before 8pm EST on February 18? | Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$420 ($420.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on February 18th (2025 obviously)
For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com) | 2024-11-10T21:31:14 | 2024-12-12T13:13:11 | 2024-12-12T13:13:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LP8cORILP6 | Will Mariah’s All I Want for Christmas Is You Reach #1 on Billboard in November 2024? | Billboard’s Hot 100 edition are weekly leaderboards with a Saturday date, and there are 2 Saturday’s at the end of this month: the 23rd and the 30th.
Since 2019, Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You has reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the month of November every year (seen below and here). Will she do... | 2024-11-10T15:52:04 | 2024-11-30T23:59:00 | 2024-12-13T11:54:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
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