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mani-IStNsUqdUs
|
Will Trump's first executive order be about immigration and/or the border?
|
Resolves YES the first executive order of Trump's second term is primarily about immigration and/or border security, NO if it is not primarily about either topic, and N/A if he has not signed any executive orders by April 29th (i.e. first 100 days).
Context
The first executive order of Trump's first term was #13765, a.k.a. "Executive Order Minimizing the Economic Burden of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Pending Repeal". An equivalent market would have resolved NO.
From his first term, the first executive order that would have resolved an equivalent market YES was his 3rd, #13767, "Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements".
For more examples, his 4th & 5th executive orders in 2016 would also have resolved this YES.
Regardless, there will naturally be some subjectivity in resolution. I intend to be fairly broad, but it needs to be primarily about immigration and/or border security, not just indirectly influence on these topics.
|
2024-11-10T14:49:01
|
2025-01-20T11:44:33
|
2025-01-29T08:36:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qlh5I5QI50
|
Will Erling Haaland have at least 20 Premier League goals in the 2024-25 season by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Haaland has 20 or more goals (including 20) this season in the Premier League at any point before the end of 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
Data Source: https://www.premierleague.com/players/65970/Erling-Haaland/stats?co=1&se=719
|
2024-11-09T11:02:52
|
2024-12-29T09:34:36
|
2024-12-29T09:34:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-glz25ZQyRd
|
Will Donald Trump issue an executive order modifying birthright citizenship by May 31st 2025?
|
This market resolves YES if President Trump signs an executive order that attempts to end or modify birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment before May 31st, 2025.
Resolution Details:
- Resolves YES upon signing of such an executive order
- Resolves NO if no such order is signed by May 31st, 2025
- Subsequent legal challenges or court rulings do not affect resolution
- Order must specifically address birthright citizenship for children born in the U.S.
|
2024-11-08T22:26:39
|
2025-01-20T21:04:08
|
2025-01-20T21:04:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C2zOhz0UIt
|
Will Russia conduct a military action that directly triggers NATO's Article 5 by January 21, 2025?
|
Primary Criterion: Formal Invocation of Article 5
The resolution will occur as "Yes" if NATO formally and publicly invokes Article 5 in direct response to a Russian military action before January 21, 2025.
The invocation must be confirmed by official NATO channels, such as announcements from the NATO Secretary General or a formal NATO press release.
Timeframe
The resolution applies to events occurring up to 11:59 PM UTC on January 20, 2025.
If Article 5 is invoked due to an event that occurred after this date, it will not impact the resolution of this question.
Verification Sources
Acceptable sources for confirming Article 5 invocation include:
Official NATO press releases and statements from the NATO Secretary General.
Verified reporting from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, etc.).
Statements from NATO-member government officials if they clearly confirm Article 5 has been invoked due to Russian actions.
Exclusions and Clarifications
Actions falling short of Article 5 invocation, such as:
Unauthorized airspace incursions, cyber-attacks, or limited border incidents that do not meet the threshold for Article 5,
Escalations leading only to diplomatic or economic sanctions without military response, will not result in a "Yes" resolution.
Ambiguous Cases: If an action raises Article 5 discussions but does not lead to a formal invocation, the resolution will be "No."
Resolution Date
If Article 5 is not invoked by January 21, 2025, the question will resolve to "No" on that date.
|
2024-11-08T22:11:31
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-01-30T07:36:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8ZtShu89Z6
|
Bitcoin above $77K on Nov 18?
|
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $77,000 on Coinbase at any point on November 18, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on November 18, 2024.
|
2024-11-08T18:34:37
|
2024-11-18T13:40:14
|
2024-11-18T13:40:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hhnUhg5pty
|
Will an AI score over 10% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
|
"Today we're launching FrontierMath, a benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI. We collaborated with 60+ leading mathematicians to create hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging math problems, of which current AI systems solve less than 2%.
Existing math benchmarks like GSM8K and MATH are approaching saturation, with AI models scoring over 90%—partly due to data contamination. FrontierMath significantly raises the bar. Our problems often require hours or even days of effort from expert mathematicians.
We evaluated six leading models, including Claude 3.5 Sonnet, GPT-4o, and Gemini 1.5 Pro. Even with extended thinking time (10,000 tokens), Python access, and the ability to run experiments, success rates remained below 2%—compared to over 90% on traditional benchmarks."
|
2024-11-08T17:02:53
|
2024-12-20T11:13:42
|
2024-12-20T11:13:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Zt0yECduu9
|
Will "Wicked" have a higher Rotten Tomatoes critics score than "Gladiator 2"?
|
Rotten Tomatoes pages:
"Wicked"
"Gladiator 2"
This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score for "Wicked" is greater than the score for "Gladiator 2" one week after their release (noon PT, November 29th), and NO otherwise.
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal). Ties resolve NO.
|
2024-11-08T16:05:33
|
2024-11-29T11:59:00
|
2024-11-29T12:04:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lt0lU2hyIs
|
Donald Trump's favorability rating 50% or higher on Jan 20th?
|
Market source will be the Favorable number reported by FiveThirtyEight's favorability polling average on January 20th: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
Note that the latest number available in the morning on January 20th will be used, regardless of the date shown on the chart.
|
2024-11-08T06:42:02
|
2025-01-19T23:59:00
|
2025-01-20T19:50:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8N0g2dPlQE
|
Will Donald Trump, Jimmy Carter, and Alex Jones all be alive by January 1st, 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-07T22:16:57
|
2024-12-29T13:28:59
|
2024-12-29T13:28:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2pth2RShdq
|
Will third party candidates combined receive more than 2% of the popular vote?
|
Total of all 3rd party and write in votes in 2024 must be >2.00% to resolve yes. Any Vote that isn't for Harris or Trump is counted.
In 2020 it was 1.96%
in 2016 it was 6.05%
Resolves to data published by https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ once finalized. Will resolve 3 days after the final state has certified (mid December).
Back up resolution: https://www.congress.gov/
Will resolve the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-of-votes-go-to-3rd-party-candidates-in-us-election?tid=1732070283517
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
Market resolves YES if third party vote percentage is >2.00% (any amount above 2%, even 2.0000000001%)
Market resolves NO if third party vote percentage is ≤2.00%
|
2024-11-07T21:29:07
|
2024-12-08T20:59:00
|
2024-12-19T05:40:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L5NzElgNPC
|
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 before it goes back to $50,000?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-07T20:52:10
|
2024-12-04T18:49:51
|
2024-12-04T18:49:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hL8Zc9S5gS
|
Will Donald Trump be admitted to a hospital for any reason before his inauguration?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-07T12:42:12
|
2025-01-20T10:00:36
|
2025-01-20T10:00:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cNsLSShugy
|
Will the Israeli-Palestinian war end by January 20, 2025?
|
Resolves YES if the war ends by 11:59PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2025, and NO otherwise. "The war ends" means that fighting/violence has stopped completely.
Inspired by https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-netanyahu-he-wants-gaza-war-over-by-time-he-enters-office-sources/
|
2024-11-07T11:21:13
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-02-04T22:33:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ihs69CZz6t
|
Will Trump Declare Himself King or Dictator for Life on January 20th?
|
TRUMP FOR LIFE
|
2024-11-07T10:24:43
|
2025-01-19T13:56:00
|
2025-01-27T14:05:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R2SQPzQEtc
|
Will the German parliament reform the Schuldenbremse before the next election?
|
There are rumors that SPD/Grüne of the current Ampel coalition are planning to use the ousting of the FDP party to reform the Schuldenbremse with the help of the CDU/CSU.
This would also be in the best interest of the CDU/CSU, since they will most likely be in the next government.
Resolves YES, if the Schuldenbremse is meaningfully reformed (requiring the help of the CDU/CSU for the necessary majority).
Resolves NO, if there is no reform until the next Bundestag election (including Neuwahlen), or they find a minor workaround to invest more. Resolves NO early, in case of Neuwahlen.
Feel free to ask for clarification.
|
2024-11-07T00:28:07
|
2025-02-13T03:26:31
|
2025-02-13T03:26:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-082pqEIZpZ
|
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 days of his inauguration?
|
They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours. - Donald J. Trump
That's hyperbolic, but how about 24 days?
Resolution Criteria:
End of War: Defined as a mutually agreed ceasefire or peace agreement signed by Ukraine and Russia.
Timeline: The agreement must be signed within 24 days of Trump’s inauguration.
Verification: Confirmation from recognized news sources or statements from official government sources in Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S.
Sister market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GazDownright/will-trump-end-the-russiaukraine-wa?play=true)Update 2024-27-12 (PST): - The ceasefire must have some permanence and cannot be a temporary or short-term agreement. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-11-07T00:25:23
|
2025-02-13T09:00:00
|
2025-02-15T03:22:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QyNyyLuty9
|
Will all living presidents attend Trump’s inauguration?
|
Resolves YES if all living presidents (on January 20th, 2025) attend Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Must be in person (presumably at the Capitol).
(For the sweepstakes market if Trump's inauguration never happens then this will resolve to No.)
|
2024-11-06T20:02:52
|
2025-01-20T12:04:11
|
2025-01-20T12:04:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l8q9gnnltL
|
Will France ban (or substantially restrict access to) Polymarket before Christmas?
|
From TheBigWhale:
The ANJ, France's gambling regulator, is expected to ban access to the site in the near future. The cryptocurrency prediction platform was a big hit during the US elections.
For context, the top of the Polymarket leaderboards are dominated by the Frenchman Fredi/Theo (he has more alts beyond this):
[image]Is this report legit, or nonsense?
For reference, access to Polymarket in the US would clear this bar, even if plenty of Americans still use the site.
Update 2024-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A proactive/voluntary pause of trading by Polymarket during an ongoing regulatory investigation will not be sufficient for a YES resolution
For YES, there must be evidence that the restriction was ordered/mandated by regulators rather than voluntarily implemented by Polymarket
Official statements from Polymarket will be weighed against other credible reporting to determine if the action was truly voluntary
|
2024-11-06T17:16:29
|
2024-12-25T23:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:51:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5SId2zn5hI
|
Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith?
|
Will the Trump administration offer Elon Musk a decent return for the time, effort, and political capital that he spent on backing Donald Trump?
Resolves NO if in my best guess based on public or shareable info, it looks like Donald Trump did not repay Elon Musk's backing, actively undermined Musk, decided that he was on the outs with Musk without Musk having previously clearly acted against Trump, etcetera. Resolves YES if my subjective judgment is that Musk struck first, or Trump acted in good faith until the point of a mutual break. If Trump doesn't specifically act against Musk, but Musk receives little or nothing in exchange for backing Trump, resolves NO.
This would resolve NO if Musk receives as little for backing Trump as Peter Thiel received for backing Trump in the 2016 election cycle. (E.g., Jim O'Neill was previously tipped to become FDA head, but did not become FDA head.) (I am open to hearing about how Trump repaid Thiel and I didn't hear about it yet.)
May resolve YES early if it's clear early in the Trump administration that Trump is already making a good-faith effort to fully repay Musk's backing, even if they end up on the outs later.
This isn't limited to selfish repayment; it counts if Musk obtains altruistic political desiderata.
|
2024-11-06T16:28:12
|
2025-02-26T20:23:30
|
2025-02-26T20:23:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cUZESqNd0g
|
Will Starship's 6th test successfully complete an in-space relight and burn?
|
For Starship's 6th test flight,
An additional objective for this flight will be attempting an in-space burn using a single Raptor engine, further demonstrating the capabilities required to conduct a ship deorbit burn prior to orbital missions.
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-6
Resolves YES if a Raptor engine relights while in space and completes its burn successfully. Otherwise resolves NO (including if it fails, or if it is not attempted for any reason).
E.g. if SpaceX states that they commanded an early shutdown due to any problem, that's a failure. It would also resolve unsuccessful if Starship explodes for any reason before the burn completes, regardless of whether it's due to an engine problem.
If the mission never attempts the engine relight, for example because Starship explodes before it can happen or they just decide not to attempt it, resolves NO as well.
Only one engine completing the relight and burn is sufficient for YES even if others fail.
This question is about the next Starship mission that is planned to reach space (100km altitude). The question will remain open until that test occurs.
|
2024-11-06T14:58:55
|
2024-11-19T19:39:10
|
2024-11-19T19:39:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Un206USES6
|
Bitcoin $100K before Trump’s inauguration?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 on Coinbase, based on the 1-minute candlestick data, at any point before the scheduled inauguration date of Donald Trump (if applicable). If this price level is not reached by the end of the inauguration day, the market will resolve to "No."
|
2024-11-06T13:09:09
|
2024-12-04T19:51:23
|
2024-12-04T19:51:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SQpEqsNhQ9
|
Will there be a 6th Starship launch in November?
|
Resolves YES if a 6th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place in November 2024 (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
Context: SpaceX announced that "The sixth flight test of Starship is targeted to launch as early as Monday, November 18"
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.
|
2024-11-06T12:12:34
|
2024-11-19T19:36:41
|
2024-11-19T19:36:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IU8ghA8Q6R
|
Will the S&P 500 close 2024 above 6000?
|
This market will resolve based on whether the S&P 500 Index closes above or below 6000 on the last trading day of 2024.
This question will resolve to YES if the official closing price of the S&P 500, as reported by reputable financial data sources such as Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, or MarketWatch, is 6000 or above on December 31, 2024 (or the last trading day of 2024 if markets are closed on that date). It will resolve to NO if the closing price is below 6000.
|
2024-11-06T11:02:50
|
2024-12-31T13:03:07
|
2024-12-31T13:03:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8h5zsdRsL9
|
Will Trump actually create a department of government efficiency by the end of 2026?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-06T10:23:20
|
2025-01-21T11:05:26
|
2025-01-21T11:05:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PLA2yhlnd2
|
Will there be a serious effort to repeal the 22nd Amendment or redefine it as only applying to consecutive terms?
|
Donald Trump will only be the second President in U.S. history to serve two non-consecutive terms, and the first to do so after the passage of the 22nd Amendment, which provides that a person shall only be elected President twice. It's possible an attempt will be made to remove the constraints of the 22nd Amendment whether through repeal or redefinition by the courts, that it only applies to consecutive terms. This can resolve yes if:
1) A bill is introduced in the US Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment (regardless of outcome)
2) An op-ed is published in a major newspaper (>100k subscribers), by a current or past federal government official, notable academic, or major media figure, arguing that the 22nd Amendment applies only to consecutive terms
3) A paper is published in a top-20 legal journal (W&L Law Journal Rankings) arguing that the 22nd amendment applies only to consecutive terms.
4) Donald Trump, one of his administration members, or an external advisor specifically and seriously calls for the repeal or redefinition of the 22nd Amendment (and not just that it would be nice if Trump could serve a third term).
|
2024-11-06T01:53:31
|
2025-01-23T17:26:48
|
2025-01-23T17:26:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ct0ghZzc2p
|
Will Nasa confirm the discovery of aliens before 2025
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-06T01:08:41
|
2024-11-13T14:59:00
|
2025-01-16T19:01:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d0ggQQtl5L
|
If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, will any of his criminal cases get dropped by the end of the year?
|
If Kamala Harris wins, this resolves N/A
|
2024-11-05T17:49:47
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-06T05:37:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-szh6ng808c
|
Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [election day trading]
|
Resolves the same as this market: https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/nate-silver-100k-twitter-bet-will-t
|
2024-11-05T10:27:25
|
2024-11-05T17:56:36
|
2024-11-05T17:56:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8gQPNPAtqd
|
Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht by 3/1/2025
|
Trump is elected.
If Ross Ulbricht isn't a free man on 3/1/2025, this will resolve to 0%.
If Ross steps out of jail thanks to Trump by 3/1/2025, this resolves to a yes, 100%
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - Ross must step on free US soil for this market to resolve to Yes. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-11-05T08:26:44
|
2025-01-23T01:15:40
|
2025-01-23T01:15:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PE2PO68R9c
|
🇺🇸 Will Baby Hippo Moo Deng Accurately Predict the Outcome of the 2024 U.S. Elections?
|
Celebrity baby hippo Moo Deng has predicted a win for Donald Trump in tomorrow’s U.S. election.
The cute hippo picked a watermelon carved with Trump’s name (in the local language) over another with Kamala Harris’s name.
This video was filmed on Monday, November 4, at the Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Chonburi, eastern Thailand, according to reports.
Will his prediction be proven correct?
[tweet]
|
2024-11-05T04:25:56
|
2024-11-06T22:17:32
|
2024-11-06T22:17:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dUl5PUSd5g
|
Will Destiny's prediction that Kamala will win 6 out of 7 swing states come true?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-04T20:38:36
|
2024-11-05T22:59:24
|
2024-11-05T22:59:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Inu2gyy86R
|
Will Trump post “Stop the Count” in the days following the election?
|
He must post those three words, with no other words between them for this to Resolve YES on either X (Twitter) or TruthSocial using his personal account.
If he puts emojis or punctuation in between the words, that’s fine. “Stop the Count!”, “stop. the. count.” and “STOP 👏 THE 👏 COUNT” are all treated the same.
Resolves NO at the end of November 9th, 2024.
[image]
|
2024-11-04T10:58:23
|
2024-11-09T23:59:00
|
2024-11-10T14:29:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UpydAN50qu
|
Will Pennsylvania be decisive in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
Will Pennsylvania be decisive in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Pennsylvania is considered "decisive" if the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election wins Pennsylvania and also if the winner would not have reached at least 270 electoral votes if they had lost Pennsylvania.
|
2024-11-04T09:16:58
|
2024-11-11T20:59:00
|
2024-11-11T21:05:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-APPNgpd69l
|
Will Democrats win both houses of Congress?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-04T02:35:54
|
2024-11-06T20:59:00
|
2024-11-07T04:23:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N5Nz0ZqggA
|
Will Arcane Season 2 get a 100% on RottenTomatoes?
|
Will Arcane Season 2 get a 100% on RottenTomatoes? Season 1 did.
This will be assessed 48hours after the final episodes come out.
|
2024-11-03T20:38:55
|
2024-11-25T23:59:00
|
2024-12-10T15:29:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tU2yq0Q502
|
Before the rooster crows on the morning of November 6, will Donald Trump have denied the election results three times?
|
Roosters typically crow around an hour before dawn, which in Washington DC is 6:41 am on November 6th. So we'll use 5:41 AM Eastern Time as the cutoff for this.
Will Donald Trump make three separate statements denying the election results before then? A statement is considered a denial of the results if it is specifically contradicting a statement by an official, widely recognized news source about the outcome of the election. Some examples:
"We won this election," if the election has not been called yet (or has been called for Kamala) - counts as a denial
"I call for a recount" - does not count as a denial
"This election is not yet decided," if the election has been called by major news sources - counts as a denial
The statements don't have to be in separate speeches, but have to be separated by at least one sentence. "We won Pennsylvania, we won Wisconsin, and we won Michigan" only counts as one (if they hadn't been called yet)
I won't trade on this market as it's a little subjective.
|
2024-11-03T15:42:05
|
2024-11-06T14:14:36
|
2024-11-06T14:14:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RAq2gsu8ds
|
Will Ann Selzer's final Iowa 2024 presidential election poll be accurate?
|
Will the final poll of the 2024 presidential election cycle released by Des Moines Register/Mediacom that shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% accurately predict the results of the Iowa general election within 2%.
https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
Resolves YES if Harris gets between 49% and 45% of the vote and Trump gets between 46% and 42% of the vote in Iowa. This market closes on Nov 5th and resolves Nov 12th based on CNN published Iowa election data.
|
2024-11-03T13:15:05
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-07T04:48:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6AISthRhLg
|
Will trump have heart attack before Nov 6th?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-11-03T13:12:08
|
2024-11-05T22:52:04
|
2024-11-05T22:52:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AhQLzRl29O
|
Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed before end of year?
|
This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before December 31st, 2024 at 11:59PM PST. A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling the original Switch's reveal trailer would qualify, but something such as a social media posting showing a visual of the system and its name would resolve to YES as well.
|
2024-11-03T02:58:29
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:53:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Oz6NlNRRQP
|
[Short-Fuse] Will Donald Trump be on any Fox show to deny associating with Jeffrey Epstein before Noon Election Day ?
|
https://www.thedailybeast.com/listen-to-the-jeffrey-epstein-tapes-i-was-donald-trumps-closest-friend/
Michael Wolff has teased hours of recordings of Jeffrey Epstein talking intimately about the inner-workings of the Trump administration.
Will this story gain enough traction to force Donald Trump to appear on, or call into, any Fox News or Business show, to deny these allegations before 12pm EDT on election day?|
Mention of Jeffrey Epstein, Michael Wolff, or The Daily Beast in regards to denial of the rumors, or disparagement of those individuals or organization, would count.
For example, if he says "Michael Wolff is a hack journalist, I sued him for defamation, because he lies.", or something to that effect, this would resolve YES, because he is disparaging the source of the recordings.
|
2024-11-03T00:21:22
|
2024-11-05T09:00:00
|
2024-11-05T09:00:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PCNA2hhOIh
|
Will Trump win Iowa by >5 points?
|
This market resolves YES if Trump wins Iowa by >5 points, and NO otherwise.
Same rules as the Florida market, but for >5 points instead.
RELATED MARKET: @/Ziddletwix/will-trump-win-iowa-by-5-points-and
seo terms: Republican Republicans Democrat Democrats Donald Trump Kamala Harris
|
2024-11-02T16:58:13
|
2024-11-05T17:59:00
|
2024-11-06T08:08:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Cnz59C2dLP
|
Will Portland, Oregon see major, violent protests/riots during election week
|
For the purpose of this question I define "major" and "violent" as a protest with at least about 500 people and there have to be clashes with the police (or other law enforcement like national guard) or counter-protestors and some destruction of property like store fronts, public statues, or similar.
If some reports say "400 protestors" and others "500 protestors", it will still count as long as it's legit sources and numbers are in the right ballpark.
Destruction of "unofficial" statues like the "grab'em by the pussy" statue that was put up by an artist recently won't count. Non-political destruction, that's unfortunately common place in Portland, like smashing of bus stop glass won't count either, unless we have clear evidence that it was done by protestors or people who hijacked a protest to be assholes or make the protestors look bad.
Since this is somewhat subjective, I won't participate myself.
|
2024-11-02T10:34:37
|
2024-11-10T23:59:00
|
2024-11-11T07:12:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NgSu50EQAg
|
[Polymarket] Will either candidate concede in November?
|
This market is linked to a Polymarket, and will Resolve the same as its clone: Will either candidate concede in November?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the Republican or Democratic presidential candidate formally concedes the 2024 US presidential election election by November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A concession is defined as an unambiguous public statement which acknowledges that the candidate lost the 2024 US presidential election, will not be the next President, or which acknowledges the victory of an opponent. If a candidate makes these acknowledgements while also claiming that the election was rigged, or that there was fraud, this will still qualify as a concession.
Only public statements from the conceding candidate will qualify. Reports of private conversations, e.g. if the candidate called the victor and conceded over the phone, will not count.
|
2024-11-02T05:53:45
|
2024-11-07T23:59:00
|
2024-11-08T06:35:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SpEUdtLN5c
|
Will the New York Times needle go down on election day due to a NYT strike?
|
Consensus of credible reporting
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-new-york-times-risks-losing-its-needle-over-its-tech-unions-strike/
|
2024-11-01T15:24:54
|
2024-11-06T00:23:36
|
2024-11-06T00:23:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cRApE6z2lp
|
Will *neither* Trump nor Harris get 270 votes before 2025? (This is a setup for a "Contingent Election")
|
For example, this could happen via a swing state refusing to certify its outcome.
|
2024-11-01T13:45:03
|
2024-11-10T03:54:17
|
2024-11-10T03:54:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ey6zPzCO29
|
Will Kamala Harris win the national popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did?
|
HRC won by 2.09%.
Resolves YES if Harris wins the NPV by more than that (up to 3dp) and NO if she wins by less than that, or doesn't win the NPV. To allow for recounts, challenges, and states like California that take their time to count mail ballots etc, I will delay resolution to as late as possible if their margins are close.
|
2024-11-01T09:56:23
|
2024-11-06T00:45:11
|
2024-11-06T00:45:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-92Cp08NN65
|
Will bitcoin end December 31, 2024 over $79000?
|
End of month California time
|
2024-11-01T08:13:30
|
2024-12-31T11:35:03
|
2024-12-31T11:35:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Z8tRNgUzZ
|
Will Lamar Jackson be the 2024-2025 NFL MVP?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dglid/will-josh-allen-be-the-20242025-nfl?play=false)
|
2024-11-01T03:40:35
|
2025-02-06T22:14:55
|
2025-02-06T22:14:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nOzp550ZSl
|
Will Josh Allen be the 2024-2025 NFL MVP?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dglid/will-lamar-jackson-be-the-20242025?play=false)
|
2024-11-01T03:39:33
|
2025-02-06T22:14:33
|
2025-02-06T22:14:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-26zECRI5du
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the Super Bowl in 2025?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX
See more Super Bowl sweepcash markets at https://manifold.markets/home?q=Super%20bowl&s=score&f=open&ct=ALL&p=0&fy=0&mt=00000&sw=1
|
2024-11-01T03:31:43
|
2025-01-20T12:11:54
|
2025-01-20T12:11:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AUQgCCRL9L
|
Will OpenAI release their o1 model before 2025?
|
Resolves YES if OpenAI releases their o1 model before 2025.
For this market, it will be considered to be released if either of the following occur:
OpenAI announces that they have started rolling it out to ChatGPT for some users.
OpenAI announces that it is available in the API, even if it is not available to all tiers.
Resolves NO if none of the above happens before 2025.
Note that the o1 model is separate from the o1-mini and o1-preview model, as shown by their different benchmark scores.
|
2024-10-31T20:48:35
|
2024-12-05T13:52:16
|
2024-12-05T13:52:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nISAQzIyRl
|
Will the Presidential Election get called before Pennsylvania?
|
Will the US 2024 Presidential Election get called before the commonwealth of Pennsylvania has been called (for the presidential election)?
Will be using CNN for all calls here.
|
2024-10-31T19:14:14
|
2024-11-07T05:43:09
|
2024-11-07T05:43:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RcLsuZz6h0
|
Should Harris have picked Shapiro? [See description]
|
This market resolves YES if the following three things happen:
Kamala Harris loses the 2024 presidential election.
Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania by between 0% and 1%.
Had she instead won Pennsylvania, she would have gotten 270 or more electoral votes.
Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
This is intended to be a proxy for "Harris would have counterfactually won the election if she had picked Josh Shapiro instead of Tim Walz".
|
2024-10-31T13:21:41
|
2024-11-06T14:36:05
|
2024-11-06T14:36:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hzAUPy25NE
|
Will faithless electors change the result of the 2024 election?
|
Resolves YES if one candidate wins states totaling to 270+ electoral votes, but that candidate loses the election due to electors voting for candidates other than those whom they pledged their support to. Otherwise, resolves NO.
|
2024-10-31T10:03:12
|
2024-12-18T07:27:20
|
2024-12-18T07:27:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UON8qN69y0
|
Trump nominates Musk to cabinet?
|
This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump wins the election and announces that Elon Musk is nominated to a cabinet position by February 28, 2025. Trump must say what the position is; a general expression that Musk will be in the cabinet will not count. "The cabinet" means one of the 15 heads of government agencies, or a role designated as cabinet-level.
If the Republican ticket loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If the Republican ticket wins but Donald Trump is not able to fulfill his duties, then the market will be resolved based on whether whoever the next president is nominates Musk.
|
2024-10-30T12:03:26
|
2025-02-28T23:59:00
|
2025-03-10T14:03:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gtUczqLy8N
|
Will a major news outlet incorrectly report a state winner in the Presidential election?
|
A YES resolution requires a definitive report of the statewide winner in the presidential election that is later shown to be incorrect.
Includes the news organizations:
• ABC
• CBS
• NBC
• PBS
• NPR
• CNN
• Fox
• MSNBC
• Associated Press
• New York Times
• Wall Street Journal
• USA Today
Note: This includes a case where fraud revelation overturns a previously announced result.
|
2024-10-30T11:09:49
|
2024-12-30T13:06:10
|
2024-12-30T13:06:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0SQqE96yhg
|
At least one person dies from violence at a polling place on US Election Day (Nov. 5th, 2024).
|
Will also count if they suffer injuries from such an event and die within the same week.
Adverse health events (e.g. heart attacks, overdoses, dehydration) not specifically related will not count.
|
2024-10-30T10:39:39
|
2024-11-06T08:17:29
|
2024-11-06T08:17:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OZR0Iqphzn
|
Will OpenAI release a product with the word "Orion" in its name before 2025?
|
Obviously calling it "Orion" counts as having the word "Orion" in its name. If it is nicknamed Orion by people working in OpenAI itself, or if it is stated that it was going to be called Orion, but OpenAI changed its mind, this will also count.
|
2024-10-29T20:36:19
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-14T20:45:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pcdAhUPZdg
|
Will CNN declare a winner in the presidential election before 11:59pm EST on Wednesday November 6
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-29T19:03:53
|
2024-11-06T03:34:55
|
2024-11-06T03:34:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9h89E9gNL2
|
Bitcoin above 70K on Nov 6?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-29T18:30:36
|
2024-11-06T00:09:37
|
2024-11-06T00:09:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5Uh0pZUUUn
|
Will Kamala win New York by >8 points?
|
This market resolves YES if Kamala wins New York by >8 points, and NO otherwise.
Same rules as the Florida market (but for Kamala).
|
2024-10-28T18:00:26
|
2024-11-04T23:59:00
|
2024-12-01T13:53:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CIpEP2EnNZ
|
Will Nate Silver call all 50 states correctly?
|
Resolves based on the final forecast given by the Silver Bulletin.
"Calling a state" means that the candidate given the highest winning probability by Nate's model in his final presidential forecast matches the winner called by the AP news desk.
If two candidates are exactly tied, then either count as being "called correctly" (don't do this Nate, it's a cop out!).
This just covers the 50 states, e.g. it resolves based on Nate's main Nebraska forecast, ignoring NE-1 & NE-2 (and the same for Maine).
|
2024-10-28T17:46:19
|
2024-11-04T23:59:00
|
2024-11-07T15:03:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cA0LZuL6u2
|
Will Trump win a solid blue state?
|
Will any states currently rated as "Solid D" by Cook Political Report be won by Trump in the 2024 presidential election? Resolves YES when any of the following listed states are called for the Republican nominee by the AP, or NO when all of them have been called for the Democratic nominee. If the AP does not announce race calls in 2024, I will use reporting by other credible media.
The following are solid blue states:
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
I may bet on this market. This market is based on this market, but uses different states because it started later.
|
2024-10-28T16:56:09
|
2024-11-06T15:13:11
|
2024-11-06T15:13:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cALsOdgNzC
|
Major Election Riots in 2024-2025?
|
This market will settle as YES if there is one or more significant riots related to the US presidential election between October 28, 2024, and midnight Eastern Time on January 20, 2025.
To settle as YES, the following criteria must be met:
One or more incidents referred to by credible news sources as riots, involving at least 500 participants across one or more cities motivated by the same grievance, leading to either:
A) The death or hospitalization of at least 10 people—including rioters, police, bystanders, targets, or others,
or
B) At least $1 million in property damage.
All criteria must be met by the same side. For example, if Harris supporters cause $500K in damages and Trump supporters cause another $500K in damages in different cities, this will not be sufficient to settle the market as YES. Edge cases with ambiguities under the resolution criteria will be settled in accordance with the spirit of the market.
|
2024-10-28T13:34:16
|
2025-01-21T23:59:00
|
2025-01-22T12:25:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yEPELQQcRz
|
Will Polymarket crash on Election Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-28T12:22:21
|
2024-11-06T20:59:00
|
2024-11-20T06:13:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6zIRuUZcLp
|
Will BLC-1 be confirmed as alien technology before 2025?
|
This market explores the likelihood that the Breakthrough Listen project will present credible evidence of extraterrestrial life associated with the BLC-1 signal by 2025.
The Breakthrough Listen initiative, a large-scale search for intelligent extraterrestrial communications, has focused on signals from nearby stars, including Proxima Centauri. In 2019, the BLC-1 signal, detected by the Parkes Radio Telescope in Australia, was initially regarded as a potential technosignature—a possible indicator of alien technology.
The signal sparked interest because of its unusual characteristics, such as being narrowband and drifting in frequency, which are generally indicative of artificial origins.
However, further analysis attributed the signal to terrestrial interference, leading the scientific community to remain cautious in its interpretation.
Recently, claims by filmmaker Simon Holland, who has reportedly worked with NASA, reignited public interest by suggesting that significant findings related to BLC-1 may soon be disclosed.
Though these claims lack verification and are not peer-reviewed, they have fueled curiosity about whether Breakthrough Listen could ultimately present extraterrestrial evidence linked to BLC-1.
Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to "YES" if credible, peer-reviewed scientific findings or consensus emerge before 2025, that strongly reduce the likelihood of a natural or terrestrial source for BLC-1.
Further Reading:
Sheikh, S. Z., et al. "Analysis of the BLC-1 signal using a technosignature verification framework." Nature Astronomy (2021). Available on arXiv: [arXiv link](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2111.06350 )
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13950399/Evidence-alien-life-revealed-month.html
"NASA Filmmaker Claims Evidence of Alien Life Could Be Revealed…" Overview of recent claims and public response on NDTV: [NDTV link](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nasa-filmmaker-claims-evidence-of-alien-life-could-be-revealed-next-month-6792180).
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/1BhQG2re1lY?si=Kpifr3bmaRvrt3Vf)
|
2024-10-28T10:04:27
|
2024-12-31T19:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:59:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EUZP9g8Uq2
|
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 election and will she get over 90 million votes?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-28T05:32:32
|
2024-11-28T00:59:00
|
2024-12-01T14:55:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pOZP6sLSUP
|
If Trump is elected, will the National Guard be called out in response to rioting on or before Inauguration Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-27T15:14:54
|
2025-01-20T11:21:39
|
2025-01-20T11:21:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gpPp5EsAgd
|
Will Iran strike directly against Israel in 2024 following Israel’s 26th October 2024 strikes on Iran?
|
Israel’s large and publicly acknowledged strikes on Iranian air-defence, missile production, and (at time of writing still unconfirmed) potentially also nuclear facilities at Parchin on 26th October have been met with a dismissive public statement response from the Iranian regime.
Will Iran respond directly against Israel again (as on October 1st 2024) , or attempt to stop the spiral by not retaliating directly, instead relying on proxies or even “doing nothing extra”?
Time bound for 2024. Any attack from Iran or Iranian forces (IRGC, Iranian Military, Navy included) against Israel proper will resolve to YES.
|
2024-10-27T10:52:49
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:17:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LzP2u8ltSz
|
Will special prosecutor Jack Smith, eventually indict and prosecute Donald Trump as a war criminal?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-26T22:54:31
|
2025-01-01T00:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:38:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CNLq2SUP2N
|
Will Biden declare a national FEMA EMERGENCY after the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-26T17:45:45
|
2024-11-08T20:08:07
|
2024-11-08T20:08:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NZRdOZcChg
|
Will Gukesh Dommaraju beat Ding Liren in the 2024 World Chess Championship?
|
It looks like the chess WC is back on.
Due to start on November 25th in Singapore.
https://deepnewz.com/chess/ding-liren-to-defend-title-against-gukesh-fide-world-championship-starting-25-6bbcc874
[image]For those who don't follow chess closely
Ding won the world championship a while ago, and hasn't been in great form recently
Gukesh has been crushing it -- including recently at Chess Olympiad which India won in dominant fashion
Betting sites have Gukesh between 3-1 and 8-1 favorite...
Basically most people think Gukesh can't lose, and Ding can't win.
However -- both are top 2700+ ELO players. Ding has slide to #23 in the world (to Gukesh's #5) but that's still only a 50 point difference.
https://2700chess.com/
[image]Also as the defending champion Ding wins if the match ends in a tie.
Hence the market is if Gukesh can win. Ding needs only a tied match to hold on to his championship.
Gukesh is also still a teenager. If he wins, he'd be the youngest champion ever, beating Gary Kasparov's record (age 20 / 21 I think). Maybe the nerves will get to him, especially if Ding turns out to be tougher than he expects...
We will post updates and more information here, and make this a Premium market.
Let us know if you want to see more markets on individual games, margin of victory, etc...
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
Tiebreaks will count - Gukesh can win by winning the tiebreaks even if classical portion is tied
If match ends in a tie for any other reason (e.g. cancellation), Ding remains champion and market resolves NO
|
2024-10-26T16:58:50
|
2024-12-12T09:51:38
|
2024-12-12T09:51:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hgqt9d65O5
|
If Kamala Harris gives a concession speech, will she cry?
|
Resolves N/A if she doesn’t give a concession speech by 12/31/24 or if Dave Wasserman projects that she wins the 2024 election.
Resolves yes if she cries during her concession speech, including if she sniffles or bats her eyes (My discretion, needs to be out of sadness. Will look at whether her eyes are watering).
|
2024-10-26T16:30:15
|
2024-11-06T16:59:09
|
2024-11-06T16:59:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-98UldnzdhE
|
Will Ding Liren beat Gukesh Dommaraju at the 2024 World Chess Championship?
|
resolves YES if he wins, NO if he loses or draws
|
2024-10-26T16:23:14
|
2024-12-12T07:42:13
|
2024-12-12T07:42:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5yZuIgu8NR
|
Will this current Israel 🇮🇱 attack on Iran 🇮🇷 be a multi day attack?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-25T16:58:14
|
2024-10-27T14:53:51
|
2024-10-27T14:54:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d5Ohq8lP0P
|
Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump on or before election day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-25T11:29:56
|
2024-11-04T18:47:12
|
2024-11-04T18:47:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EPC8S0NQsO
|
Will Kamala Harris do better than Joe Biden did in California?
|
Easier version of the CA MoV market.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MarkHamill/what-will-kamala-harriss-vote-share)Resolves yes if she gets more than Joe Biden’s 63.5% in CA
|
2024-10-25T07:06:25
|
2024-11-15T23:59:00
|
2024-11-17T09:27:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5A99LA96lA
|
Will Israel attack Iran before the USA elections?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-25T03:18:38
|
2024-11-24T04:59:00
|
2024-12-01T19:18:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pnZNA5plOg
|
Will Pia Cramling win her match against Levy Rozman?
|
[tweet]If the result is tied after the games that are currently planned, and they play tiebreaker games, this will resolve to the result of the tiebreakers; otherwise it resolves NO. (i.e. because tie ≠ win). Also resolves NO if the match doesn't happen, is canceled partway through, or the results aren't publicized by a credible source. (I expect to use chess.com as a source.)
|
2024-10-24T19:40:41
|
2024-11-02T08:34:56
|
2024-11-02T08:34:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nAOynN2ncQ
|
Will Donald Trump declare victory before a major outlet has called the 2024 presidential election?
|
Will Trump declare that he himself was the victor of the 2024 Presidential Election before a major paper has called it?
The list of major papers is exactly: CNN, NBC News, MSNBC, CBS News, ABC News, The Associated Press, and Fox News, which is the ordered list of who called the 2020 election.
This counts written or spoken words by Donald Trump: either said aloud (into a microphone / on video / widely reported and not disputed by major, respected news agencies), or on his personal or campaign’s social media accounts.
See a similar question above him declaring on election night: @/MatthewBarnett/will-trump-declare-victory-on-elect
Market will extend as needed.
|
2024-10-24T14:01:59
|
2024-11-08T23:59:00
|
2024-11-09T17:05:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IdhQ0yPs8z
|
Will TSLA reach >$280 before 8pm EST on October 31st?
|
Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$280 ($280.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on October 31st
For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com)
|
2024-10-24T12:38:07
|
2024-10-31T18:33:16
|
2024-10-31T18:33:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5CRgsd6Und
|
Did Donald Trump grope a teenager?
|
Resolves YES if:
a video of Donald Trump groping a teenager is published, and I personally judge the video to be real, OR:
at least two of ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, NBC News, the New York Times, USA Today, the Washington Post, Politico, and NPR report on allegations of Donald Trump groping a teenager, and I personally judge that the tone of the articles is at least as confident as "neutral on whether it happened or not".
Resolves NO if this does not happen by market close.
|
2024-10-23T15:30:32
|
2024-11-04T21:59:00
|
2024-11-05T03:32:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b1gcemzj04
|
Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025?
|
Resolves yes if Jake Paul wins a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025.
Resolves No if Mike Tyson wins, there is a draw, or no match ever takes place.
This market will not resolve for 24 hours after the match in case a disqualification is announced.
|
2024-10-23T07:13:44
|
2024-11-17T12:25:22
|
2024-11-17T12:25:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-85wonkvs7m
|
Will Trump reach 69% on Polymarket before Election Day?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1848631587736322485\n\nResolves YES if the chance of Trump winning on https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 is at least 69.0% for any given day through November 4, 2024. Resolves NO otherwise."
|
2024-10-22T20:42:19
|
2024-11-04T21:47:51
|
2024-11-04T21:47:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ib7ov5u3od
|
Will the US have a port strike in January 2025?
|
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1848877003593945431
Resolves to Ryan Petersen's announcement, or to my judgement of other news sources if that's unavailable.
|
2024-10-22T17:36:04
|
2025-02-01T09:48:53
|
2025-02-01T09:48:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vyxlgh6dyz
|
Will Trump reach 70% before election day?
|
Resolves YES if Trump reaches 70% at any point from now until Nov 4, 2024 11:59 PM PT on electionbettingodds.com
|
2024-10-21T16:54:59
|
2024-11-05T02:59:00
|
2024-11-05T03:02:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-urswu5cqny
|
Will Kamala Harris lose the popular vote but win the electoral college?
|
Is there a chance Kamala Harris could do the opposite to Donald Trump compared to what Trump did to Hillary Clinton in 2016, i.e. win the electoral college but lose the popular vote? Some people seem to think so: https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/1flyful/could_harris_lose_the_popular_vote_but_still_win/
|
2024-10-21T16:42:13
|
2024-11-06T13:21:42
|
2024-11-06T13:21:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ewj2yf24e4
|
Will there be a 6th Starship launch before end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if a 6th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before the specified date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.
|
2024-10-21T07:54:40
|
2024-11-19T19:37:50
|
2024-11-19T19:37:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4x2ys7xtrg
|
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election receives more than 50% of the total popular vote, constituting a majority. If no candidate secures a majority and only a plurality of votes is achieved, the market will resolve to "No." In the event that the 2024 U.S. presidential election is not held, this market will resolve to "N/A."
|
2024-10-21T05:46:26
|
2024-12-30T18:16:06
|
2024-12-30T18:16:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i8b78fvhuu
|
Will the first confirmed capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces occur before the end of 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria
A capture will be considered confirmed if at least two of the following criteria are met:
Verified OSINT evidence (e.g., geolocated photos or videos, intercepted communications)
Official statement from Ukrainian military authorities
Reports from at least two major international news agencies
Confirmation from reputable OSINT organizations or analysts
|
2024-10-21T02:45:23
|
2024-12-28T12:17:24
|
2024-12-28T12:17:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aah2qhc0d2
|
Will Israel launch an attack on Iranian soil before the end of October 2024?
|
Must be an attack directly on Iranian territory (embassies won’t count). I will also not count sabatoge or covert operations (for example, the assassination of Haniyeh). Must be an attack using missiles or aircraft.
|
2024-10-21T01:20:02
|
2024-10-25T18:24:25
|
2024-10-25T18:24:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1o79og4lmo
|
Will Dan Clancy still be CEO of Twitch at the end of 2024?
|
This market will resolve at the start of 2025 based on whether Dan Clancy was CEO of Twitch on December 31st at 11:59pm PST.
If he is fired or resigns this market will stay open in case he is re-instated (such as with what happened with Sam Altman).
If he is considered an interim CEO or has announced he will be stepping down but a replacement/new interim CEO hasn't been announced yet then this will still resolve as YES.
|
2024-10-21T00:00:34
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T22:40:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rfx23hf71p
|
Will Trump reach 60% in Nate Silver’s model again before the election?
|
This market will resolve to yes if Trump’s chance of victory in Nate Silver’s model reaches 60% before the election.
If the model is showing Trump with a 59.9% chance this will not count. It must be at least 60.0%
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
As of October 20th Trump has a 53.1% chance of victory.
|
2024-10-20T13:17:08
|
2024-11-05T00:12:40
|
2024-11-05T00:12:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y80e44uvgv
|
Will any NFL game end in a tie this regular season (2024-25)?
|
If any regular season game has its final score recorded as a tie this market will resolve to "YES". If the regular season finishes without a tie, this market will resolve to "NO". For a game to count as a tie, the game must actually be played and result in a tie, the cancellation or forfeiture of a game will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the score of the game as first reported at the end of the game will be used. Later action by the commissioner or any other official to overrule or change the score of a game will be irrelevant to this market.
|
2024-10-20T06:37:32
|
2025-01-06T05:00:54
|
2025-01-06T05:00:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5gvpdlgtub
|
Will Elon Musk claim voter fraud in Pennsylvania, citing the Super PAC petition numbers?
|
What I'm expecting: "There's obviously voter fraud in Pennsylvania, we had Xmillion people sign the petition and only Xmillion votes!!"
If Trump [or someone else] makes the claim and Elon uncritically shares it on X, that will also suffice. If he mentions voter fraud, i.e. "Trump claims there is voter fraud in Pennsylvania", that is insufficient. Someone needs to cite the super PAC numbers vs voter numbers.
If Elon reposts a list of 50 fraud claims and this is one of them, it may not count. The key spirit of the market here is: It needs to be clear that Elon read this exact claim and is uncritically amplifying it, or explicitly endorsing it.
Not conditional on Trump winning/losing the state.
I have been asked not to trade, so I won't!
|
2024-10-20T00:06:39
|
2024-11-18T06:57:46
|
2024-11-18T06:57:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b0kdgz3ar6
|
Will Opus 3.5 be released this week?
|
That is, before next Monday October 28th.
|
2024-10-19T17:54:12
|
2024-10-27T23:59:00
|
2024-11-04T08:46:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-crutp6ae7p
|
Will Trump concede the election as part of a deal with Biden for a pardon?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-19T11:35:18
|
2024-11-06T11:19:01
|
2024-11-06T11:19:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4up55sw7qb
|
Will we get a video of claude 3.5 Sonnet running a very single minded competent minecraft agent before December 2024?
|
As repligate describes here:
[image]Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Market will resolve YES if a video demonstrates Claude 3.5v2 Sonnet (not just 3.5 Sonnet) running a single-minded competent minecraft agent (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-10-19T08:06:03
|
2024-11-18T14:09:54
|
2024-12-20T13:50:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vwab4ucv8e
|
Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before election day?
|
Resolves YES if both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump appear on the Joe Rogan Experience, or NO on election day.
|
2024-10-18T21:15:35
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T06:01:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ayijgu08d
|
Will absolute voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential election be higher than 2020?
|
Resolves YES if the popular vote in the 2024 election on DDHQ exceeds 158,429,631
|
2024-10-18T07:48:25
|
2024-11-15T23:59:00
|
2024-11-17T09:32:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
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