id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-IStNsUqdUs | Will Trump's first executive order be about immigration and/or the border? | Resolves YES the first executive order of Trump's second term is primarily about immigration and/or border security, NO if it is not primarily about either topic, and N/A if he has not signed any executive orders by April 29th (i.e. first 100 days).
Context
The first executive order of Trump's first term was #13765, ... | 2024-11-10T14:49:01 | 2025-01-20T11:44:33 | 2025-01-29T08:36:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qlh5I5QI50 | Will Erling Haaland have at least 20 Premier League goals in the 2024-25 season by the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if Haaland has 20 or more goals (including 20) this season in the Premier League at any point before the end of 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
Data Source: https://www.premierleague.com/players/65970/Erling-Haaland/stats?co=1&se=719 | 2024-11-09T11:02:52 | 2024-12-29T09:34:36 | 2024-12-29T09:34:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-glz25ZQyRd | Will Donald Trump issue an executive order modifying birthright citizenship by May 31st 2025? | This market resolves YES if President Trump signs an executive order that attempts to end or modify birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment before May 31st, 2025.
Resolution Details:
- Resolves YES upon signing of such an executive order
- Resolves NO if no such order is signed by May 31st, 2025
- Subsequen... | 2024-11-08T22:26:39 | 2025-01-20T21:04:08 | 2025-01-20T21:04:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C2zOhz0UIt | Will Russia conduct a military action that directly triggers NATO's Article 5 by January 21, 2025? | Primary Criterion: Formal Invocation of Article 5
The resolution will occur as "Yes" if NATO formally and publicly invokes Article 5 in direct response to a Russian military action before January 21, 2025.
The invocation must be confirmed by official NATO channels, such as announcements from the NATO Secretary Genera... | 2024-11-08T22:11:31 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-01-30T07:36:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8ZtShu89Z6 | Bitcoin above $77K on Nov 18? | Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $77,000 on Coinbase at any point on November 18, 2024, based on 1-minute candlestick data. If this price is not reached during the day, the market resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time:
Expected to resolve by 23:59 PT on Novembe... | 2024-11-08T18:34:37 | 2024-11-18T13:40:14 | 2024-11-18T13:40:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hhnUhg5pty | Will an AI score over 10% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025 | "Today we're launching FrontierMath, a benchmark for evaluating advanced mathematical reasoning in AI. We collaborated with 60+ leading mathematicians to create hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging math problems, of which current AI systems solve less than 2%.
Existing math benchmarks like GSM8K and MATH ar... | 2024-11-08T17:02:53 | 2024-12-20T11:13:42 | 2024-12-20T11:13:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zt0yECduu9 | Will "Wicked" have a higher Rotten Tomatoes critics score than "Gladiator 2"? | Rotten Tomatoes pages:
"Wicked"
"Gladiator 2"
This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score for "Wicked" is greater than the score for "Gladiator 2" one week after their release (noon PT, November 29th), and NO otherwise.
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no d... | 2024-11-08T16:05:33 | 2024-11-29T11:59:00 | 2024-11-29T12:04:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Lt0lU2hyIs | Donald Trump's favorability rating 50% or higher on Jan 20th? | Market source will be the Favorable number reported by FiveThirtyEight's favorability polling average on January 20th: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
Note that the latest number available in the morning on January 20th will be used, regardless of the date shown on the chart. | 2024-11-08T06:42:02 | 2025-01-19T23:59:00 | 2025-01-20T19:50:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8N0g2dPlQE | Will Donald Trump, Jimmy Carter, and Alex Jones all be alive by January 1st, 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-07T22:16:57 | 2024-12-29T13:28:59 | 2024-12-29T13:28:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2pth2RShdq | Will third party candidates combined receive more than 2% of the popular vote? | Total of all 3rd party and write in votes in 2024 must be >2.00% to resolve yes. Any Vote that isn't for Harris or Trump is counted.
In 2020 it was 1.96%
in 2016 it was 6.05%
Resolves to data published by https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ once finalized. Will resolve 3 days after the final state has certified (mi... | 2024-11-07T21:29:07 | 2024-12-08T20:59:00 | 2024-12-19T05:40:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-L5NzElgNPC | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 before it goes back to $50,000? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-07T20:52:10 | 2024-12-04T18:49:51 | 2024-12-04T18:49:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hL8Zc9S5gS | Will Donald Trump be admitted to a hospital for any reason before his inauguration? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-07T12:42:12 | 2025-01-20T10:00:36 | 2025-01-20T10:00:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cNsLSShugy | Will the Israeli-Palestinian war end by January 20, 2025? | Resolves YES if the war ends by 11:59PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2025, and NO otherwise. "The war ends" means that fighting/violence has stopped completely.
Inspired by https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-netanyahu-he-wants-gaza-war-over-by-time-he-enters-office-sources/ | 2024-11-07T11:21:13 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-02-04T22:33:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ihs69CZz6t | Will Trump Declare Himself King or Dictator for Life on January 20th? | TRUMP FOR LIFE | 2024-11-07T10:24:43 | 2025-01-19T13:56:00 | 2025-01-27T14:05:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R2SQPzQEtc | Will the German parliament reform the Schuldenbremse before the next election? | There are rumors that SPD/Grüne of the current Ampel coalition are planning to use the ousting of the FDP party to reform the Schuldenbremse with the help of the CDU/CSU.
This would also be in the best interest of the CDU/CSU, since they will most likely be in the next government.
Resolves YES, if the Schuldenbremse ... | 2024-11-07T00:28:07 | 2025-02-13T03:26:31 | 2025-02-13T03:26:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-082pqEIZpZ | Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 days of his inauguration? | They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours. - Donald J. Trump
That's hyperbolic, but how about 24 days?
Resolution Criteria:
End of War: Defined as a mutually agreed ceasefire or peace agreement signed by Ukraine and Russia.
Timeline:... | 2024-11-07T00:25:23 | 2025-02-13T09:00:00 | 2025-02-15T03:22:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QyNyyLuty9 | Will all living presidents attend Trump’s inauguration? | Resolves YES if all living presidents (on January 20th, 2025) attend Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Must be in person (presumably at the Capitol).
(For the sweepstakes market if Trump's inauguration never happens then this will resolve to No.) | 2024-11-06T20:02:52 | 2025-01-20T12:04:11 | 2025-01-20T12:04:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-l8q9gnnltL | Will France ban (or substantially restrict access to) Polymarket before Christmas? | From TheBigWhale:
The ANJ, France's gambling regulator, is expected to ban access to the site in the near future. The cryptocurrency prediction platform was a big hit during the US elections.
For context, the top of the Polymarket leaderboards are dominated by the Frenchman Fredi/Theo (he has more alts beyond this):... | 2024-11-06T17:16:29 | 2024-12-25T23:59:00 | 2025-01-04T08:51:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5SId2zn5hI | Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith? | Will the Trump administration offer Elon Musk a decent return for the time, effort, and political capital that he spent on backing Donald Trump?
Resolves NO if in my best guess based on public or shareable info, it looks like Donald Trump did not repay Elon Musk's backing, actively undermined Musk, decided that he was... | 2024-11-06T16:28:12 | 2025-02-26T20:23:30 | 2025-02-26T20:23:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cUZESqNd0g | Will Starship's 6th test successfully complete an in-space relight and burn? | For Starship's 6th test flight,
An additional objective for this flight will be attempting an in-space burn using a single Raptor engine, further demonstrating the capabilities required to conduct a ship deorbit burn prior to orbital missions.
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-6
Reso... | 2024-11-06T14:58:55 | 2024-11-19T19:39:10 | 2024-11-19T19:39:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Un206USES6 | Bitcoin $100K before Trump’s inauguration? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 on Coinbase, based on the 1-minute candlestick data, at any point before the scheduled inauguration date of Donald Trump (if applicable). If this price level is not reached by the end of the inauguration day, the market will resolve t... | 2024-11-06T13:09:09 | 2024-12-04T19:51:23 | 2024-12-04T19:51:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SQpEqsNhQ9 | Will there be a 6th Starship launch in November? | Resolves YES if a 6th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place in November 2024 (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
Context: SpaceX announced that "The sixth flight test of Starship is targeted to launch as early as Monday, November 18"
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad,... | 2024-11-06T12:12:34 | 2024-11-19T19:36:41 | 2024-11-19T19:36:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IU8ghA8Q6R | Will the S&P 500 close 2024 above 6000? |
This market will resolve based on whether the S&P 500 Index closes above or below 6000 on the last trading day of 2024.
This question will resolve to YES if the official closing price of the S&P 500, as reported by reputable financial data sources such as Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, or MarketWatch, is 6000 or above o... | 2024-11-06T11:02:50 | 2024-12-31T13:03:07 | 2024-12-31T13:03:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8h5zsdRsL9 | Will Trump actually create a department of government efficiency by the end of 2026? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-06T10:23:20 | 2025-01-21T11:05:26 | 2025-01-21T11:05:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PLA2yhlnd2 | Will there be a serious effort to repeal the 22nd Amendment or redefine it as only applying to consecutive terms? | Donald Trump will only be the second President in U.S. history to serve two non-consecutive terms, and the first to do so after the passage of the 22nd Amendment, which provides that a person shall only be elected President twice. It's possible an attempt will be made to remove the constraints of the 22nd Amendment whe... | 2024-11-06T01:53:31 | 2025-01-23T17:26:48 | 2025-01-23T17:26:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ct0ghZzc2p | Will Nasa confirm the discovery of aliens before 2025 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-06T01:08:41 | 2024-11-13T14:59:00 | 2025-01-16T19:01:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d0ggQQtl5L | If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, will any of his criminal cases get dropped by the end of the year? | If Kamala Harris wins, this resolves N/A | 2024-11-05T17:49:47 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-06T05:37:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-szh6ng808c | Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [election day trading] | Resolves the same as this market: https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/nate-silver-100k-twitter-bet-will-t | 2024-11-05T10:27:25 | 2024-11-05T17:56:36 | 2024-11-05T17:56:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8gQPNPAtqd | Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht by 3/1/2025 | Trump is elected.
If Ross Ulbricht isn't a free man on 3/1/2025, this will resolve to 0%.
If Ross steps out of jail thanks to Trump by 3/1/2025, this resolves to a yes, 100%
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - Ross must step on free US soil for this market to resolve to Yes. (AI summary of creator comment) | 2024-11-05T08:26:44 | 2025-01-23T01:15:40 | 2025-01-23T01:15:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PE2PO68R9c | 🇺🇸 Will Baby Hippo Moo Deng Accurately Predict the Outcome of the 2024 U.S. Elections? | Celebrity baby hippo Moo Deng has predicted a win for Donald Trump in tomorrow’s U.S. election.
The cute hippo picked a watermelon carved with Trump’s name (in the local language) over another with Kamala Harris’s name.
This video was filmed on Monday, November 4, at the Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Chonburi, eastern Thai... | 2024-11-05T04:25:56 | 2024-11-06T22:17:32 | 2024-11-06T22:17:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dUl5PUSd5g | Will Destiny's prediction that Kamala will win 6 out of 7 swing states come true? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-04T20:38:36 | 2024-11-05T22:59:24 | 2024-11-05T22:59:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Inu2gyy86R | Will Trump post “Stop the Count” in the days following the election? | He must post those three words, with no other words between them for this to Resolve YES on either X (Twitter) or TruthSocial using his personal account.
If he puts emojis or punctuation in between the words, that’s fine. “Stop the Count!”, “stop. the. count.” and “STOP 👏 THE 👏 COUNT” are all treated the same.
Reso... | 2024-11-04T10:58:23 | 2024-11-09T23:59:00 | 2024-11-10T14:29:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UpydAN50qu | Will Pennsylvania be decisive in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Will Pennsylvania be decisive in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Pennsylvania is considered "decisive" if the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election wins Pennsylvania and also if the winner would not have reached at least 270 electoral votes if they had lost Pennsylvania. | 2024-11-04T09:16:58 | 2024-11-11T20:59:00 | 2024-11-11T21:05:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-APPNgpd69l | Will Democrats win both houses of Congress? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-04T02:35:54 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T04:23:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N5Nz0ZqggA | Will Arcane Season 2 get a 100% on RottenTomatoes? | Will Arcane Season 2 get a 100% on RottenTomatoes? Season 1 did.
This will be assessed 48hours after the final episodes come out. | 2024-11-03T20:38:55 | 2024-11-25T23:59:00 | 2024-12-10T15:29:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tU2yq0Q502 | Before the rooster crows on the morning of November 6, will Donald Trump have denied the election results three times? | Roosters typically crow around an hour before dawn, which in Washington DC is 6:41 am on November 6th. So we'll use 5:41 AM Eastern Time as the cutoff for this.
Will Donald Trump make three separate statements denying the election results before then? A statement is considered a denial of the results if it is specifi... | 2024-11-03T15:42:05 | 2024-11-06T14:14:36 | 2024-11-06T14:14:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RAq2gsu8ds | Will Ann Selzer's final Iowa 2024 presidential election poll be accurate? | Will the final poll of the 2024 presidential election cycle released by Des Moines Register/Mediacom that shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% accurately predict the results of the Iowa general election within 2%.
https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/... | 2024-11-03T13:15:05 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T04:48:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6AISthRhLg | Will trump have heart attack before Nov 6th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-11-03T13:12:08 | 2024-11-05T22:52:04 | 2024-11-05T22:52:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AhQLzRl29O | Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed before end of year? | This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before December 31st, 2024 at 11:59PM PST. A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling the original Switch's reveal... | 2024-11-03T02:58:29 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T04:53:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Oz6NlNRRQP | [Short-Fuse] Will Donald Trump be on any Fox show to deny associating with Jeffrey Epstein before Noon Election Day ? | https://www.thedailybeast.com/listen-to-the-jeffrey-epstein-tapes-i-was-donald-trumps-closest-friend/
Michael Wolff has teased hours of recordings of Jeffrey Epstein talking intimately about the inner-workings of the Trump administration.
Will this story gain enough traction to force Donald Trump to appear on, or cal... | 2024-11-03T00:21:22 | 2024-11-05T09:00:00 | 2024-11-05T09:00:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PCNA2hhOIh | Will Trump win Iowa by >5 points? | This market resolves YES if Trump wins Iowa by >5 points, and NO otherwise.
Same rules as the Florida market, but for >5 points instead.
RELATED MARKET: @/Ziddletwix/will-trump-win-iowa-by-5-points-and
seo terms: Republican Republicans Democrat Democrats Donald Trump Kamala Harris | 2024-11-02T16:58:13 | 2024-11-05T17:59:00 | 2024-11-06T08:08:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Cnz59C2dLP | Will Portland, Oregon see major, violent protests/riots during election week | For the purpose of this question I define "major" and "violent" as a protest with at least about 500 people and there have to be clashes with the police (or other law enforcement like national guard) or counter-protestors and some destruction of property like store fronts, public statues, or similar.
If some reports s... | 2024-11-02T10:34:37 | 2024-11-10T23:59:00 | 2024-11-11T07:12:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NgSu50EQAg | [Polymarket] Will either candidate concede in November? | This market is linked to a Polymarket, and will Resolve the same as its clone: Will either candidate concede in November?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the Republican or Democratic presidential candidate formally concedes the 2024 US presidential election election by November 30, 11:... | 2024-11-02T05:53:45 | 2024-11-07T23:59:00 | 2024-11-08T06:35:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SpEUdtLN5c | Will the New York Times needle go down on election day due to a NYT strike? | Consensus of credible reporting
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-new-york-times-risks-losing-its-needle-over-its-tech-unions-strike/ | 2024-11-01T15:24:54 | 2024-11-06T00:23:36 | 2024-11-06T00:23:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cRApE6z2lp | Will *neither* Trump nor Harris get 270 votes before 2025? (This is a setup for a "Contingent Election") | For example, this could happen via a swing state refusing to certify its outcome. | 2024-11-01T13:45:03 | 2024-11-10T03:54:17 | 2024-11-10T03:54:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ey6zPzCO29 | Will Kamala Harris win the national popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did? | HRC won by 2.09%.
Resolves YES if Harris wins the NPV by more than that (up to 3dp) and NO if she wins by less than that, or doesn't win the NPV. To allow for recounts, challenges, and states like California that take their time to count mail ballots etc, I will delay resolution to as late as possible if their margin... | 2024-11-01T09:56:23 | 2024-11-06T00:45:11 | 2024-11-06T00:45:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-92Cp08NN65 | Will bitcoin end December 31, 2024 over $79000? | End of month California time | 2024-11-01T08:13:30 | 2024-12-31T11:35:03 | 2024-12-31T11:35:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Z8tRNgUzZ | Will Lamar Jackson be the 2024-2025 NFL MVP? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dglid/will-josh-allen-be-the-20242025-nfl?play=false) | 2024-11-01T03:40:35 | 2025-02-06T22:14:55 | 2025-02-06T22:14:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nOzp550ZSl | Will Josh Allen be the 2024-2025 NFL MVP? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dglid/will-lamar-jackson-be-the-20242025?play=false) | 2024-11-01T03:39:33 | 2025-02-06T22:14:33 | 2025-02-06T22:14:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-26zECRI5du | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the Super Bowl in 2025? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIX
See more Super Bowl sweepcash markets at https://manifold.markets/home?q=Super%20bowl&s=score&f=open&ct=ALL&p=0&fy=0&mt=00000&sw=1 | 2024-11-01T03:31:43 | 2025-01-20T12:11:54 | 2025-01-20T12:11:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AUQgCCRL9L | Will OpenAI release their o1 model before 2025? | Resolves YES if OpenAI releases their o1 model before 2025.
For this market, it will be considered to be released if either of the following occur:
OpenAI announces that they have started rolling it out to ChatGPT for some users.
OpenAI announces that it is available in the API, even if it is not available to all ti... | 2024-10-31T20:48:35 | 2024-12-05T13:52:16 | 2024-12-05T13:52:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nISAQzIyRl | Will the Presidential Election get called before Pennsylvania? | Will the US 2024 Presidential Election get called before the commonwealth of Pennsylvania has been called (for the presidential election)?
Will be using CNN for all calls here. | 2024-10-31T19:14:14 | 2024-11-07T05:43:09 | 2024-11-07T05:43:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RcLsuZz6h0 | Should Harris have picked Shapiro? [See description] | This market resolves YES if the following three things happen:
Kamala Harris loses the 2024 presidential election.
Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania by between 0% and 1%.
Had she instead won Pennsylvania, she would have gotten 270 or more electoral votes.
Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
This is intended to be a ... | 2024-10-31T13:21:41 | 2024-11-06T14:36:05 | 2024-11-06T14:36:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hzAUPy25NE | Will faithless electors change the result of the 2024 election? | Resolves YES if one candidate wins states totaling to 270+ electoral votes, but that candidate loses the election due to electors voting for candidates other than those whom they pledged their support to. Otherwise, resolves NO. | 2024-10-31T10:03:12 | 2024-12-18T07:27:20 | 2024-12-18T07:27:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UON8qN69y0 | Trump nominates Musk to cabinet? | This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump wins the election and announces that Elon Musk is nominated to a cabinet position by February 28, 2025. Trump must say what the position is; a general expression that Musk will be in the cabinet will not count. "The cabinet" means one of the 15 heads of government agencies... | 2024-10-30T12:03:26 | 2025-02-28T23:59:00 | 2025-03-10T14:03:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gtUczqLy8N | Will a major news outlet incorrectly report a state winner in the Presidential election? | A YES resolution requires a definitive report of the statewide winner in the presidential election that is later shown to be incorrect.
Includes the news organizations:
• ABC
• CBS
• NBC
• PBS
• NPR
• CNN
• Fox
• MSNBC
• Associated Press
• New York Times
• Wall Street Journal
• USA Today
Note: This inc... | 2024-10-30T11:09:49 | 2024-12-30T13:06:10 | 2024-12-30T13:06:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0SQqE96yhg | At least one person dies from violence at a polling place on US Election Day (Nov. 5th, 2024). | Will also count if they suffer injuries from such an event and die within the same week.
Adverse health events (e.g. heart attacks, overdoses, dehydration) not specifically related will not count. | 2024-10-30T10:39:39 | 2024-11-06T08:17:29 | 2024-11-06T08:17:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OZR0Iqphzn | Will OpenAI release a product with the word "Orion" in its name before 2025? | Obviously calling it "Orion" counts as having the word "Orion" in its name. If it is nicknamed Orion by people working in OpenAI itself, or if it is stated that it was going to be called Orion, but OpenAI changed its mind, this will also count. | 2024-10-29T20:36:19 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2025-01-14T20:45:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pcdAhUPZdg | Will CNN declare a winner in the presidential election before 11:59pm EST on Wednesday November 6 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-29T19:03:53 | 2024-11-06T03:34:55 | 2024-11-06T03:34:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9h89E9gNL2 | Bitcoin above 70K on Nov 6? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-29T18:30:36 | 2024-11-06T00:09:37 | 2024-11-06T00:09:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5Uh0pZUUUn | Will Kamala win New York by >8 points? | This market resolves YES if Kamala wins New York by >8 points, and NO otherwise.
Same rules as the Florida market (but for Kamala).
| 2024-10-28T18:00:26 | 2024-11-04T23:59:00 | 2024-12-01T13:53:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CIpEP2EnNZ | Will Nate Silver call all 50 states correctly? | Resolves based on the final forecast given by the Silver Bulletin.
"Calling a state" means that the candidate given the highest winning probability by Nate's model in his final presidential forecast matches the winner called by the AP news desk.
If two candidates are exactly tied, then either count as being "called c... | 2024-10-28T17:46:19 | 2024-11-04T23:59:00 | 2024-11-07T15:03:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cA0LZuL6u2 | Will Trump win a solid blue state? | Will any states currently rated as "Solid D" by Cook Political Report be won by Trump in the 2024 presidential election? Resolves YES when any of the following listed states are called for the Republican nominee by the AP, or NO when all of them have been called for the Democratic nominee. If the AP does not announce r... | 2024-10-28T16:56:09 | 2024-11-06T15:13:11 | 2024-11-06T15:13:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cALsOdgNzC | Major Election Riots in 2024-2025? | This market will settle as YES if there is one or more significant riots related to the US presidential election between October 28, 2024, and midnight Eastern Time on January 20, 2025.
To settle as YES, the following criteria must be met:
One or more incidents referred to by credible news sources as riots, involving... | 2024-10-28T13:34:16 | 2025-01-21T23:59:00 | 2025-01-22T12:25:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yEPELQQcRz | Will Polymarket crash on Election Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-28T12:22:21 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-20T06:13:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6zIRuUZcLp | Will BLC-1 be confirmed as alien technology before 2025? | This market explores the likelihood that the Breakthrough Listen project will present credible evidence of extraterrestrial life associated with the BLC-1 signal by 2025.
The Breakthrough Listen initiative, a large-scale search for intelligent extraterrestrial communications, has focused on signals from nearby stars, ... | 2024-10-28T10:04:27 | 2024-12-31T19:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:59:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EUZP9g8Uq2 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 election and will she get over 90 million votes? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-28T05:32:32 | 2024-11-28T00:59:00 | 2024-12-01T14:55:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pOZP6sLSUP | If Trump is elected, will the National Guard be called out in response to rioting on or before Inauguration Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-27T15:14:54 | 2025-01-20T11:21:39 | 2025-01-20T11:21:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gpPp5EsAgd | Will Iran strike directly against Israel in 2024 following Israel’s 26th October 2024 strikes on Iran? | Israel’s large and publicly acknowledged strikes on Iranian air-defence, missile production, and (at time of writing still unconfirmed) potentially also nuclear facilities at Parchin on 26th October have been met with a dismissive public statement response from the Iranian regime.
Will Iran respond directly against I... | 2024-10-27T10:52:49 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:17:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LzP2u8ltSz | Will special prosecutor Jack Smith, eventually indict and prosecute Donald Trump as a war criminal? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-26T22:54:31 | 2025-01-01T00:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:38:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CNLq2SUP2N | Will Biden declare a national FEMA EMERGENCY after the election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-26T17:45:45 | 2024-11-08T20:08:07 | 2024-11-08T20:08:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NZRdOZcChg | Will Gukesh Dommaraju beat Ding Liren in the 2024 World Chess Championship? | It looks like the chess WC is back on.
Due to start on November 25th in Singapore.
https://deepnewz.com/chess/ding-liren-to-defend-title-against-gukesh-fide-world-championship-starting-25-6bbcc874
[image]For those who don't follow chess closely
Ding won the world championship a while ago, and hasn't been in great fo... | 2024-10-26T16:58:50 | 2024-12-12T09:51:38 | 2024-12-12T09:51:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hgqt9d65O5 | If Kamala Harris gives a concession speech, will she cry? | Resolves N/A if she doesn’t give a concession speech by 12/31/24 or if Dave Wasserman projects that she wins the 2024 election.
Resolves yes if she cries during her concession speech, including if she sniffles or bats her eyes (My discretion, needs to be out of sadness. Will look at whether her eyes are watering). | 2024-10-26T16:30:15 | 2024-11-06T16:59:09 | 2024-11-06T16:59:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-98UldnzdhE | Will Ding Liren beat Gukesh Dommaraju at the 2024 World Chess Championship? | resolves YES if he wins, NO if he loses or draws | 2024-10-26T16:23:14 | 2024-12-12T07:42:13 | 2024-12-12T07:42:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5yZuIgu8NR | Will this current Israel 🇮🇱 attack on Iran 🇮🇷 be a multi day attack? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-25T16:58:14 | 2024-10-27T14:53:51 | 2024-10-27T14:54:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d5Ohq8lP0P | Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump on or before election day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-25T11:29:56 | 2024-11-04T18:47:12 | 2024-11-04T18:47:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EPC8S0NQsO | Will Kamala Harris do better than Joe Biden did in California? | Easier version of the CA MoV market.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MarkHamill/what-will-kamala-harriss-vote-share)Resolves yes if she gets more than Joe Biden’s 63.5% in CA | 2024-10-25T07:06:25 | 2024-11-15T23:59:00 | 2024-11-17T09:27:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5A99LA96lA | Will Israel attack Iran before the USA elections? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-25T03:18:38 | 2024-11-24T04:59:00 | 2024-12-01T19:18:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pnZNA5plOg | Will Pia Cramling win her match against Levy Rozman? | [tweet]If the result is tied after the games that are currently planned, and they play tiebreaker games, this will resolve to the result of the tiebreakers; otherwise it resolves NO. (i.e. because tie ≠ win). Also resolves NO if the match doesn't happen, is canceled partway through, or the results aren't publicized by ... | 2024-10-24T19:40:41 | 2024-11-02T08:34:56 | 2024-11-02T08:34:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nAOynN2ncQ | Will Donald Trump declare victory before a major outlet has called the 2024 presidential election? | Will Trump declare that he himself was the victor of the 2024 Presidential Election before a major paper has called it?
The list of major papers is exactly: CNN, NBC News, MSNBC, CBS News, ABC News, The Associated Press, and Fox News, which is the ordered list of who called the 2020 election.
This counts written or s... | 2024-10-24T14:01:59 | 2024-11-08T23:59:00 | 2024-11-09T17:05:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IdhQ0yPs8z | Will TSLA reach >$280 before 8pm EST on October 31st? | Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$280 ($280.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on October 31st
For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com) | 2024-10-24T12:38:07 | 2024-10-31T18:33:16 | 2024-10-31T18:33:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5CRgsd6Und | Did Donald Trump grope a teenager? | Resolves YES if:
a video of Donald Trump groping a teenager is published, and I personally judge the video to be real, OR:
at least two of ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, NBC News, the New York Times, USA Today, the Washington Post, Politico, and NPR report on allegations of Donald Trump groping a teenager, and I personally ju... | 2024-10-23T15:30:32 | 2024-11-04T21:59:00 | 2024-11-05T03:32:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b1gcemzj04 | Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025? | Resolves yes if Jake Paul wins a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025.
Resolves No if Mike Tyson wins, there is a draw, or no match ever takes place.
This market will not resolve for 24 hours after the match in case a disqualification is announced. | 2024-10-23T07:13:44 | 2024-11-17T12:25:22 | 2024-11-17T12:25:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-85wonkvs7m | Will Trump reach 69% on Polymarket before Election Day? | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1848631587736322485\n\nResolves YES if the chance of Trump winning on https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 is at least 69.0% for any given day through November 4, 2024. Resolves NO otherwise." | 2024-10-22T20:42:19 | 2024-11-04T21:47:51 | 2024-11-04T21:47:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ib7ov5u3od | Will the US have a port strike in January 2025? | https://x.com/typesfast/status/1848877003593945431
Resolves to Ryan Petersen's announcement, or to my judgement of other news sources if that's unavailable. | 2024-10-22T17:36:04 | 2025-02-01T09:48:53 | 2025-02-01T09:48:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vyxlgh6dyz | Will Trump reach 70% before election day? | Resolves YES if Trump reaches 70% at any point from now until Nov 4, 2024 11:59 PM PT on electionbettingodds.com | 2024-10-21T16:54:59 | 2024-11-05T02:59:00 | 2024-11-05T03:02:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-urswu5cqny | Will Kamala Harris lose the popular vote but win the electoral college? | Is there a chance Kamala Harris could do the opposite to Donald Trump compared to what Trump did to Hillary Clinton in 2016, i.e. win the electoral college but lose the popular vote? Some people seem to think so: https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/1flyful/could_harris_lose_the_popular_vote_but_still_... | 2024-10-21T16:42:13 | 2024-11-06T13:21:42 | 2024-11-06T13:21:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ewj2yf24e4 | Will there be a 6th Starship launch before end of 2024? | Resolves YES if a 6th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before the specified date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is def... | 2024-10-21T07:54:40 | 2024-11-19T19:37:50 | 2024-11-19T19:37:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4x2ys7xtrg | Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election receives more than 50% of the total popular vote, constituting a majority. If no candidate secures a majority and only a plurality of votes is achieved, the market will resolve to "No." In the event that the 2024 U.S. presidential... | 2024-10-21T05:46:26 | 2024-12-30T18:16:06 | 2024-12-30T18:16:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i8b78fvhuu | Will the first confirmed capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces occur before the end of 2024? | Resolution Criteria
A capture will be considered confirmed if at least two of the following criteria are met:
Verified OSINT evidence (e.g., geolocated photos or videos, intercepted communications)
Official statement from Ukrainian military authorities
Reports from at least two major international news agencies
Co... | 2024-10-21T02:45:23 | 2024-12-28T12:17:24 | 2024-12-28T12:17:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aah2qhc0d2 | Will Israel launch an attack on Iranian soil before the end of October 2024? | Must be an attack directly on Iranian territory (embassies won’t count). I will also not count sabatoge or covert operations (for example, the assassination of Haniyeh). Must be an attack using missiles or aircraft. | 2024-10-21T01:20:02 | 2024-10-25T18:24:25 | 2024-10-25T18:24:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1o79og4lmo | Will Dan Clancy still be CEO of Twitch at the end of 2024? | This market will resolve at the start of 2025 based on whether Dan Clancy was CEO of Twitch on December 31st at 11:59pm PST.
If he is fired or resigns this market will stay open in case he is re-instated (such as with what happened with Sam Altman).
If he is considered an interim CEO or has announced he will be step... | 2024-10-21T00:00:34 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T22:40:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rfx23hf71p | Will Trump reach 60% in Nate Silver’s model again before the election? | This market will resolve to yes if Trump’s chance of victory in Nate Silver’s model reaches 60% before the election.
If the model is showing Trump with a 59.9% chance this will not count. It must be at least 60.0%
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
As of October 20th Trump ... | 2024-10-20T13:17:08 | 2024-11-05T00:12:40 | 2024-11-05T00:12:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y80e44uvgv | Will any NFL game end in a tie this regular season (2024-25)? | If any regular season game has its final score recorded as a tie this market will resolve to "YES". If the regular season finishes without a tie, this market will resolve to "NO". For a game to count as a tie, the game must actually be played and result in a tie, the cancellation or forfeiture of a game will not qualif... | 2024-10-20T06:37:32 | 2025-01-06T05:00:54 | 2025-01-06T05:00:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5gvpdlgtub | Will Elon Musk claim voter fraud in Pennsylvania, citing the Super PAC petition numbers? | What I'm expecting: "There's obviously voter fraud in Pennsylvania, we had Xmillion people sign the petition and only Xmillion votes!!"
If Trump [or someone else] makes the claim and Elon uncritically shares it on X, that will also suffice. If he mentions voter fraud, i.e. "Trump claims there is voter fraud in Pennsyl... | 2024-10-20T00:06:39 | 2024-11-18T06:57:46 | 2024-11-18T06:57:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b0kdgz3ar6 | Will Opus 3.5 be released this week? | That is, before next Monday October 28th. | 2024-10-19T17:54:12 | 2024-10-27T23:59:00 | 2024-11-04T08:46:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-crutp6ae7p | Will Trump concede the election as part of a deal with Biden for a pardon? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-19T11:35:18 | 2024-11-06T11:19:01 | 2024-11-06T11:19:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4up55sw7qb | Will we get a video of claude 3.5 Sonnet running a very single minded competent minecraft agent before December 2024? | As repligate describes here:
[image]Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Market will resolve YES if a video demonstrates Claude 3.5v2 Sonnet (not just 3.5 Sonnet) running a single-minded competent minecraft agent (AI summary of creator comment) | 2024-10-19T08:06:03 | 2024-11-18T14:09:54 | 2024-12-20T13:50:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vwab4ucv8e | Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before election day? | Resolves YES if both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump appear on the Joe Rogan Experience, or NO on election day. | 2024-10-18T21:15:35 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-06T06:01:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2ayijgu08d | Will absolute voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential election be higher than 2020? | Resolves YES if the popular vote in the 2024 election on DDHQ exceeds 158,429,631 | 2024-10-18T07:48:25 | 2024-11-15T23:59:00 | 2024-11-17T09:32:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
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