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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-bbyaykp4bx
|
Will one candidate win exactly 6 out of 7 swing states?
|
Resolves yes if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win exactly 6 out of 7 of NC, GA, WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ
|
2024-10-17T17:42:57
|
2024-11-08T01:55:59
|
2024-11-08T01:55:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e0a3yrcmre
|
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea) between October 13, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between North Korean and South Korean military forces. Non-violent actions, such as the deployment of balloons, audio broadcasts, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
|
2024-10-17T14:02:57
|
2024-12-31T07:30:15
|
2024-12-31T07:30:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jmrdhx4xvv
|
🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025?
|
Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025?
For This Market To Resolve YES, All Of The Terms In The Question And Their Meaning Posted Below Must Be Met. This Market Will Close At 5pm EST December 31st 2025 [11:59 PM (GMT +3)]
For This Market These Terms Mean The Following:
Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas
Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days
Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities
Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.
Important Links:
Prime Minister's Office (Israel)
OFFICE OF PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
al-Araby al-Jadeed
Full Text of the Ceasefire Agreement That Hamas has Accepted May 6, 2024 (This document may contain errors and is not official for the accepted deal agreed to in January 2025 until otherwise confirmed)
2025 Israel–Hamas war ceasefire (Wiki)
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
If this market is sweepified, Mana Market Will Resolve The Same As Manifolds resolution to the sweeps market for the Mana market.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Call to terminate ALL hostilities: As defined in the Agreement.
Lasting: This market resolves YES as long as the ceasefire meets the description to initiate the start of the 10-day count, regardless of the phase or stage. The Market only resolves YES If the full 10 days has been met.
Ceasefire Breach: The ceasefire can be violated by either side or an outside party if Israel and/or Hamas issue statements that legitimately break the ceasefire.
Non-Hamas Groups: Rockets fired by non-Hamas groups like PIJ are considered as defined in the Agreement or deferred to Israel and/or Hamas statements.
Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Deferred to Israel/Hamas Statements: Must be confirmed by an official government statement from any of the Guarantors of the agreement (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ceasefire Breach:
Only substantial breaches confirmed by official statements from Israel or Hamas will reset the 10-day count.
Minor violations will not affect the resolution.
|
2024-10-17T10:00:04
|
2025-01-28T22:30:00
|
2025-01-29T15:00:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3eej4qtpex
|
Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-17T04:02:41
|
2024-11-08T18:59:46
|
2024-11-08T18:59:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gop4ytjhgx
|
Will Trump win and nominate RFK to a cabinet position?
|
This market will settle as YES if Trump wins the presidency and he nominates Robert F Kennedy to a cabinet position by January 31, 2025.
|
2024-10-16T14:24:52
|
2024-12-02T12:05:17
|
2024-12-02T12:05:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0y3va199ij
|
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-16T09:13:13
|
2024-12-30T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:04:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ahs26sicm
|
Will a Korean team win worlds 2024? (League of Legends)
|
Resolves yes if T1, GenG or HLE win worlds this year.
|
2024-10-16T07:54:53
|
2024-11-02T15:42:47
|
2024-11-02T15:42:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aet2gu63bm
|
Will a home grown LLM developed by Chinese company be competitive by end of 2025?
|
Home grown means the model should be trained from scratch by a Chinese company. The computer can be outside of China, can use any sort of hardware, the data could from anywher, but the model should not be a distilled or finetuned version of open source models developed by other country, but should be well-known for trained from scratch by the company itself.
Competitive means the home grown model leads or ties to one of top models from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic from the Chatarena board.
|
2024-10-15T15:25:46
|
2025-01-06T15:06:42
|
2025-01-06T15:06:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wpfswsm0z7
|
Will Donald Trump provoke another deadly riot before January 21st 2025?
|
Question: Will Donald Trump publicly provoke another deadly riot in the United States before January 21st, 2025?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve to "YES" if, after this question opens, but before 12:00 AM Pacific Time, January 21st, 2025, Donald Trump makes a public statement that provokes a group of his supporters to engage in violent or unlawful actions, and this statement is followed by a deadly riot within 72 hours. The statement must meet the detailed criteria outlined below, and all conditions must be satisfied for a "YES" resolution.
1. Trump’s Public Statement:
Attribution of the Statement:
The statement must be publicly attributable to Donald Trump. This can be through a public speech, televised interview, social media post, written statement, or any other medium where Trump directly communicates to a wide audience.
The existence of the statement must be documented and reported by at least three credible sources, such as major news outlets, official transcripts, or verified social media accounts.
Anonymous sources or statements made by Trump’s associates, campaign staff, or proxies will not count toward this criterion.
Provocation of Violent or Unlawful Action:
The statement must include language that, based on reasonable interpretation, could provoke supporters to engage in violent or unlawful actions. While it does not need to explicitly advocate violence, it must meet at least one of the following criteria:
Emotionally Charged and Confrontational Language:
The statement contains highly emotional language that escalates political tensions and could provoke individuals to act violently. Examples include:
Describing opponents as "criminals," "enemies," "traitors," or other terms that dehumanize or suggest they are engaging in unjust or unlawful behavior.
Phrases like "This is a war," "We are under attack," "We cannot let them get away with this," "They are trying to destroy our country," or similar rhetoric that portrays the situation as existential or requiring immediate, forceful action.
Encouraging Defiance or Resistance:
The statement implies or directly states that supporters should disrupt, defy, or resist political or legal outcomes, including through unlawful means. Examples include:
"We need to take back the government," "Don’t let them steal this from us," "You need to stop them from taking away your rights," or other phrases that suggest the need for supporters to intervene or disrupt outcomes.
Calls to resist authority or disobey the law without specifying legal or peaceful recourse. For instance, "You need to stand up and stop this," "Do not let them proceed," without clarifying peaceful methods of doing so.
Calls for Large-Scale Mobilization:
The statement encourages a large gathering or mobilization of supporters at a specific place or time, particularly in situations where large crowds have historically escalated into riots or unlawful behavior. For example:
"Everyone needs to show up in force," "Be there or you’re complicit," "Come out and show them we won’t back down," or similar language encouraging the assembly of large groups.
Statements like "We need to make sure they hear us," "Let’s gather and show them who’s in charge," especially if made during politically tense moments, may be seen as a precursor to potential violence.
Implying Consequences for Inaction:
The statement conveys that failure to act will result in dire consequences for supporters or the nation, which could reasonably provoke individuals to take extreme measures. For example:
"If we don’t act now, we’ll lose everything," "This is our last chance," "They’ll destroy America if we don’t stop them," or other language that suggests immediate, forceful action is required to avoid catastrophe.
Emphasis on urgency and high stakes, such as "Now or never," "This is a fight for our lives," without reference to legal or peaceful forms of protest.
Clarification: Contradictory Qualifiers:
Peaceful language qualifiers, such as “peacefully” or “lawfully”, will not disqualify the statement from consideration if they are contradicted or diluted by other language that implies or encourages confrontation. For instance:
A statement like "We need to march peacefully, but we have to fight or we will lose everything," would still count, as the qualifier is undermined by the subsequent escalation in tone.
Similarly, phrases such as "We need to be peaceful, but if they push us, we need to push back harder" will still count if the overall tone suggests confrontation or resistance.
2. Occurrence of a Deadly Riot:
A deadly riot must occur within 72 hours of Trump’s public statement. The riot must meet all of the following conditions:
Size of the Riot: The riot involves at least 50 individuals engaging in violent or unlawful acts, such as assault, vandalism, property destruction, looting, or clashes with law enforcement.
Significant Law Enforcement Response: Law enforcement must respond with riot control measures, such as the deployment of police, the National Guard, or other security forces. This includes situations where officers or guards are dispatched specifically due to violence or unlawful activity.
Death: The riot must result in the death of at least one person, documented through police reports or medical records. This death must occur within 48 hours of the recognized end of the riot, which occurs when law enforcement announces that they have secured control of the relevant areas. The death must be directly and unambiguously attributable to violence during the riot, rather than occurring incidentally.
Credible Reporting: The riot must be widely reported by at least three credible news sources, with descriptions of the violence or illegal behavior involved.
3. Causal Link Between Statement and Riot:
There must be direct and documented evidence linking Trump’s statement to the riot. This can include:
Social Media Posts or Messages: Riot participants or organizers reference Trump’s statement in online posts (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, message boards) or communications (texts, emails, etc.) discussing the reason for their participation.
Testimonies or Interviews: Riot participants explicitly cite Trump’s statement in testimonies, interviews with law enforcement, or media outlets, indicating they were provoked or motivated by his words.
Coordinated Planning: Documentation or investigative reporting shows that Trump’s statement led to planning or organizing of violent activities (e.g., specific calls to action on social media or encrypted messaging platforms).
Investigative Findings: Independent investigations, law enforcement reports, or expert analyses confirm that Trump’s statement played a significant role in provoking the riot, based on collected evidence from participants, communications, and other data.
Reasonable Provocation: Even if the statement does not explicitly call for violence, it must be shown to have reasonably provoked violent or unlawful actions. Evidence should demonstrate that Trump’s rhetoric or tone was interpreted by some participants as justification or motivation for their actions, based on the content of his statement and its timing relative to the riot.
4. Verification and Review:
The resolution of this question will rely on publicly available evidence by January 21st, 2025. Evidence may include police reports, journalistic investigations, and expert testimony from scholars or analysts specializing in political violence.
If the causal connection between Trump’s statement and the riot remains ambiguous or unproven, or if there is insufficient documentation to establish a clear link, the question will resolve to "NO."
The final resolution will take into account the totality of the evidence, and all relevant factors must be objectively met for a "YES" resolution.
|
2024-10-15T11:31:31
|
2025-01-21T23:59:00
|
2025-01-22T08:56:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1vm0yc679d
|
Will Harris win the popular vote in the 2024 Election?
|
This question will resolve YES if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election.
Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-win-the-popular-v-nkvd5qs9lh?play=true)
|
2024-10-15T04:20:35
|
2024-11-27T16:20:37
|
2024-11-27T16:20:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c8ok9bc4g5
|
Will Trump declare victory on election night 2024?
|
David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, told Axios,
It is a near guarantee that Donald Trump will declare victory the night of Nov. 5 and the margin won't matter — it won't matter whether he's accurate and he actually won, or whether he was defeated soundly
Will Donald Trump declare that he has won the 2024 US presidential election before 8:00 AM Eastern Time (5 AM Pacific Time) on Wednesday November 6th, 2024?
To determine whether Donald Trump declared himself the winner of the 2024 US presidential election on election night, statements made by Donald Trump between 12:00 PM November 5th 2024 and 8:00 AM November 6th 2024 Eastern Time will be analyzed. If Donald Trump says during this time, through any medium including his official social media accounts, that he has won the 2024 US presidential election, then this question will resolve as YES. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.
To qualify, a statement or declaration must explicitly and unambiguously state that Trump considers himself, or his campaign, the winner of the 2024 election, using clear language such as "Frankly, we did win this election" or similar. The statement must clearly refer to the past or present tense, and cannot use conditional phrasing, e.g., "I have won" or "I am the winner" rather than "I will win" or "If you count the legal votes, I easily win". The statement must directly pertain to the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election, rather than any other election.
|
2024-10-14T15:47:19
|
2024-11-06T12:24:16
|
2024-11-06T12:24:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3m9w75alh1
|
Will GPT-4.5o launch before October 18th?
|
This will be resolved "Yes" if OpenAI announce GPT-4.5o, GPT-4.5, or model of better capabilities to the public by before Friday, October 18th.
Otherwise, this question will be resolved as "No".
|
2024-10-14T01:22:59
|
2024-10-18T09:59:00
|
2024-10-18T17:30:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7kwamouf46
|
Will Jimmy Carter live to be 100 ½ years old?
|
Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on 1 April 2025 EDT.
|
2024-10-13T22:02:02
|
2024-12-29T15:40:55
|
2024-12-29T15:40:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k85pxgla0i
|
Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?
|
Will North Korea provide troops to help Russia with their battle against Ukraine? With least one contingent of over 100 troops, where they are physically within the borders of Ukraine's map before the February 2022 invasion.
|
2024-10-13T15:21:21
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:29:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kgohxhrngm
|
Will the sun come up tomorrow morning?
|
[image]Judged from my personal perspective.
|
2024-10-13T06:18:11
|
2024-10-14T12:53:23
|
2024-10-14T12:53:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2khv900wcx
|
Will one candidate win all 7 swing states?
|
Resolves yes if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win all 7 of NC, GA, WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ
Split Ticket says 51%
[tweet]Related
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MarkHamill/will-one-candidate-win-6-out-of-7-s)
|
2024-10-13T00:06:01
|
2024-11-08T01:49:27
|
2024-11-08T01:49:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tr7ee2k4qb
|
Will starship ift 5 happen on 13th October?
|
Local time
|
2024-10-11T14:28:57
|
2024-10-13T05:47:20
|
2024-10-13T05:47:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y8y1wwqtde
|
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?
|
Resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins New York state by 10.0% (or more).
See Polymarket for a market on the same value.
|
2024-10-11T12:55:19
|
2024-11-07T11:59:00
|
2024-11-07T12:17:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c3m7baf0co
|
Will more people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election than voted for Donald Trump in 2020?
|
Dave Leip's numbers will be used for resolution. According to Dave Leip, 74,225,926 people voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election.
If more than 74,225,926 people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election, this market will resolve YES.
|
2024-10-11T04:06:03
|
2024-11-22T04:07:58
|
2024-11-22T04:07:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8kyziml4si
|
Will Claude-3.5 Opus launch before October 18th?
|
This will be resolved "Yes" if Anthropic announce Claude-3.5 Opus to the public by Friday, October 18th.
Otherwise, this question will be resolved as "No".
|
2024-10-10T21:47:05
|
2024-10-18T09:59:00
|
2024-10-18T17:30:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d6u75onzca
|
Will NYT publish The Needle with a live national forecast on November 5?
|
The iconic/infamous Needle was first introduced in the 2016 election night coverage with a live forecast of the presidential winner. In 2020 it returned with the live forecast of 3 swing states but not the national electoral winner.
In what form will it return this November? I will resolve Yes if The Needle returns AND shows a live probability estimate of the presidential winner during ballot counting on November 5.
2016 Needle
[image]2020 Needle
[image]
|
2024-10-10T19:31:54
|
2024-11-05T17:24:12
|
2024-11-05T17:24:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7jo2f8ibbb
|
Will an AI-generated film win an Oscar in 2025?
|
https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1844522693464555534
Rules: Film must consist only of AI-generated visuals. Can be lightly edited. Can have non-AI audio.
Rules are indicative only and subject to change.
|
2024-10-10T18:26:32
|
2025-03-05T10:00:29
|
2025-03-05T10:00:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gpliums06q
|
Will the New York Yankees win the World Series?
|
Original title: Will a New York team win the World Series?
Resolves YES if the New York Yankees or New York Mets win the World Series. Will resolve YES right away if the Yankees and Mets both win their League Championship Series, and will resolve NO right away if they both fail to win their League Championship Series.
|
2024-10-10T12:14:49
|
2024-10-30T20:52:29
|
2024-10-30T20:52:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0qoim8aj3u
|
Will entropy-based sampling improve Llama3.1 on reasoning benchmarks in 2024?
|
Entropy-based sampling (colloquially, "the shrek sampler") is a term for a new class of sampling methods for LLMs, intended to "simulate something similar to o1's CoT or [Anthropic's models] to get much better results using inference time compute."
https://github.com/xjdr-alt/entropix
This market will resolve YES if by the end of 2024, there has been a credible demonstration that applying entropy-based sampling to a Llama3.1 model (base or Instruct) leads to reasoning scores that are better than the baseline of the corresponding Llama3.1 Instruct model with regular chain-of-thought (CoT). Specifically, someone must post a comment on this market linking to credible evidence that entropy-based sampling method produces validation accuracies at least 2 percentage points higher than baseline across multiple reasoning benchmarks. Eligible "reasoning benchmarks" are:
MMLU (https://github.com/hendrycks/test)
MMLU-Pro (https://github.com/TIGER-AI-Lab/MMLU-Pro)
MATH (https://github.com/hendrycks/math/)
GPQA (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022)
MathVista (https://mathvista.github.io/)
BBH (https://github.com/suzgunmirac/BIG-Bench-Hard)
AIW (https://github.com/LAION-AI/AIW)
ARC-AGI (https://github.com/fchollet/ARC-AGI)
To establish the baseline to compare against, if Meta has not already published official scores on a given benchmark for that model w/ regular CoT, it is acceptable to produce unofficial scores and link them alongside the comparison results.
As an example, it would suffice to post a comment on this market linking to logs of Llama 3.1 8B with a single set of sampling parameters producing BOTH:
>= 75% macro-averaged zero-shot accuracy on MMLU
(Meta reports 73.0% as their score for this model size + eval)
>= 53% macro-averaged zero-shot accuracy on MATH
(Meta reports 51.0% as their score for this model size + eval)
This market will resolve NO at the end of 2024 otherwise. If there is substantial disagreement about the validity of the baseline or comparison scores, I will resolve the market based on my best understanding of the situation.
I will not trade on this market.
|
2024-10-10T10:40:21
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:22:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qu1c70mgso
|
Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020?
|
In 2020, Donald Trump got 74,223,975 votes.
In 2024 will Donald Trump get 74,223,976 or more votes?
Resolves to the NYT vote tally
|
2024-10-10T08:26:02
|
2024-11-08T19:16:08
|
2024-11-08T19:16:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h1279tz37x
|
Will Rafael Nadal win his last professional tennis match?
|
On October 10, 2024, Rafael Nadal announced his retirement from professional tennis. He will play his final matches as part of Team Spain for the 2024 Davis Cup Final 8, taking place in late November.
For the purposes of this market, I make no distinction between singles and doubles matches. If his final match is a doubles match and he wins, this market resolves YES. If he plays a final match (again, either singles or doubles) and loses, this market resolves NO. If he doesn't end up playing at the Davis Cup, then this market resolves NO, as he lost in both doubles and singles at the Paris Olympics earlier this year.
If he announces he has changed his mind and intends to play more professional matches then this market will be extended. An announcement must occur before this market has a chance to resolve, ie. before his final game of the Davis Cup starts for this market to be extended.
|
2024-10-10T06:14:08
|
2024-11-20T04:19:51
|
2024-11-20T04:19:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oqznalvnwx
|
Will Israel launch a full ground incursion into Syria before 2025?
|
I guess if Israel have more than 1000 soldiers in Syria that could ne "full invasion". But i am open to discussion.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The conquest of Mount Hermon by Israel will be considered a deal breaker and resolve the market as YES.
|
2024-10-10T04:40:59
|
2024-12-09T02:18:15
|
2024-12-09T02:18:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q9yydsauol
|
Will Bitcoin be 100 000$ in 1st of March 2025
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-10T01:37:19
|
2025-03-01T13:59:00
|
2025-03-03T12:48:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z811ljdxw7
|
Will more people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election than voted for Joe Biden in 2020?
|
Dave Leip's numbers will be used for resolution. According to Dave Leip, 81,286,454 people voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential election.
If more than 81,286,454 people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election, this market will resolve YES.
|
2024-10-10T01:16:15
|
2024-12-11T19:53:13
|
2024-12-11T19:53:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eu5xolxr1z
|
Will Joker: Folie à Deux receive an Oscar nomination?
|
Will Joker 2 get an Oscar nomination for the 2025 Academy Awards?
This market will close the night before nominations are announced.
|
2024-10-09T17:07:29
|
2025-01-16T23:59:00
|
2025-01-23T07:03:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0brbofhekn
|
Will Austria form a government by February 2025?
|
Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if a new Austrian government is officially formed and sworn in by the Austrian President before January 31, 2025, 23:59 CET. This includes the appointment of a Chancellor and a full cabinet of ministers, followed by an official swearing-in ceremony. Official announcements from the Austrian government or credible news sources will be used to verify this. If no government is formed by the specified deadline, or only a caretaker/interim government is in place, the market will resolve to NO.
Example sources (not limited to):
Federal President's Office
Austrian Federal Chancellery
|
2024-10-09T12:27:59
|
2025-02-01T12:02:13
|
2025-02-01T12:02:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d7rjq6yni2
|
Will Chrome os reach 2.50% market share by the end of the year
|
acording to https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202311-202411
Update 2024-19-12 (PST): Market will close on December 25
Update 2024-22-12 (PST): Market will resolve based on ChromeOS market share percentage on December 31st, not December 25th. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-22-12 (PST): Market will resolve based on ChromeOS market share percentage on December 25th, not December 31st. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-10-09T11:33:11
|
2024-12-24T14:00:00
|
2024-12-25T00:11:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fiis1vxkig
|
Will Hurricane Milton be the costliest hurricane in recorded history?
|
Resolves YES if nominal property damages meet or exceed US$125 billion* according to the soonest official NOAA median estimate.
*$125 billion is the record set by both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Harvey. If Hurricane Helene is found by NOAA to exceed $125 billion in damages, Hurricane Milton must additionally meet or exceed that record.
|
2024-10-08T19:35:43
|
2025-02-09T16:04:30
|
2025-02-09T16:04:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ju9lt8d7k1
|
Has Hurricane Helene led to “a literal dam of bodies”?
|
Manifold user @Mlt asserts that FEMA has not done anything to help North Carolina and also that there is a literal dam of bodies right now of people that were killed in the hurricane and flooding. Since this is a betting website, I thought it would be appropriate to wager mana on the result.
Makayla has offered two pieces of evidence to support her theory:
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/5hwez1AQARQLctCM/?mibextid=UalRPS
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/aafZagKrN5zNATEp/?mibextid=UalRPS
Is there a literal dam of bodies? Note, the official death count for Helene is in the hundreds but mere evidence of death is not enough to resolve YES, there needs to be evidence of bodies that have come to rest, or been piled, in a very careless way. This dam of bodies must have existed before October 6, 2024, when the claim was made.
Evidence for the literal dam of bodies must be more concrete than secondhand reporting.
As I am involved in the discussion I’d appreciate if a third party would like to handle resolution for a fee of 200 mana. The third party should not bet on the outcome and can make whatever clarifications to the criteria that they see fit.
|
2024-10-08T18:29:06
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:32:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rzgsad2cj9
|
Will there be at least 4 decisive classical games in the 2024 World Chess Championship?
|
Resolves YES if there are four or more decisive (non-drawn) games in the classical (not including tiebreaks) portion of the World Chess Championship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024), or NO if there are three or less. Also resolves NO if a new world chess championship does not start before 2025. (i.e. if the existing match is cancelled.)
Decisive game count for previous recent WCCs:
2023: 6
2021: 4
2018: 0
2016: 2
2014: 4
2013: 3
|
2024-10-08T16:24:02
|
2024-12-09T06:29:58
|
2024-12-09T06:29:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ckgc3vch43
|
Will Discord get unbanned in Russia before 2025?
|
Discord just got banned by Roskomnadzor in Russia. Which was unexpected by a general public. And which is kind of insane...
This was covered by many news agencies, including ТАСС
https://tass.ru/ekonomika/22073811
Resolves YES if Discord is considered unblocked according to at least 3 credible media sources.
|
2024-10-08T16:13:10
|
2025-01-01T04:16:30
|
2025-01-01T04:16:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jd13wqh2cw
|
Destiny releases his J6-manifesto before November
|
I will use Miami timezone if it's close.
|
2024-10-08T11:47:47
|
2024-10-31T22:00:00
|
2024-11-01T01:05:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uj3hqoioir
|
Will there be a 5th Starship launch on or before October 15?
|
Resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before the specified date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.
|
2024-10-08T07:50:18
|
2024-10-13T05:40:49
|
2024-10-13T05:40:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u8fclgzqyh
|
Hurricane Helene will be more costly than Hurricane Milton
|
This will be Resolved two weeks after Hurricane Milton has been downgraded below a Tropical Depression based on which storm has a higher estimated total cost of damages, according to Wikipedia (mana market edit: and a few other reputable sources, comparing each sources reporting of both storms. If there are overlapping ranges, or there’s no clear consensus and they’re listed as being equally damaging, this will Resolve NO, per the description as originally written).
If there’s a range of damages, this will look at the top of the range for both storms. If this is a tie, it will Resolve NO.
|
2024-10-08T06:56:03
|
2024-10-24T23:59:00
|
2024-10-25T10:32:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y5gjaxcobx
|
Will Harris lead in Nate Silver's Final election forecast?
|
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Whoever has a higher chance of winning. NOT THE POLLING AVERAGE
Whoever has a higher chance of winning per the final forecast, whenever that is released. Presumably the day before or on election day. If the answer is obvious I will resolve it November 4th.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
|
2024-10-07T18:13:53
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T07:47:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g7arq2xcy7
|
Will the president inaugurated differ from [Trump] the winner of the 2024 presidential election first called by AP?
|
Resolves YES if the first person called by the Associated Press (AP) as the winner of the 2024 US presidential election is different from the first person inaugurated as the US President for the term starting January 20, 2025. Otherwise NO.
Some examples of scenarios that could potentially cause this result include, but are not limited to:
The call of the election winner is retracted / incorrect
The election winner dies, is incapacitated, or otherwise drops out
The election results are overturned in the states, courts, or Congress
Faithless electors change the results of the Electoral College
Details:
If there are e.g. technical glitches that result in AP erroneously posting a call that was not intended to be a call, this will not count as a call.
Otherwise, any call counts, even if immediately retracted.
Serving as Acting President is not the same as President and does not count as being inaugurated as President.
Notes:
Being inaugurated as President prior to the January 20, 2025 term has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The definitions above allow for the "first person called" to be at any point after the election - e.g. if the electoral college is tied, then AP might not call the election until Congress votes on the President.
It also allows for the first person inaugurated to be after January 20, e.g. if no election victor has been chosen by that date.
|
2024-10-07T17:59:07
|
2025-01-20T16:26:06
|
2025-01-20T16:26:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c4ontsz71s
|
The Grand Keith Rabois Twitter Parlay: Will Trump win each of PA, MI, GA, & AZ?
|
In honor of Keith Rabois' prediction on Twitter (and inspired by Polymarket):
[image]This market resolves YES if Donald Trump wins each of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, & Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. It resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.
|
2024-10-07T14:26:34
|
2024-11-04T23:59:00
|
2024-11-12T20:47:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y2iuk8y3nq
|
Harris to pass Trump?
|
Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point from now until the beginning of election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
This includes if the percentage shown is equal but Harris is listed above Trump.
|
2024-10-07T13:28:42
|
2024-11-04T21:59:00
|
2024-11-04T23:45:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8pjl85zr23
|
Will Joker: Folie à Deux gross over $250 million worldwide by the end of 2024?
|
2019's Joker was a surprise sensation, grossing $1.079 billion at the box office.
The sequel came out last week, pairing Joaquin Phoenix's Joker with Lady Gaga's Harley Quinn. Given the success of the first film, I asked whether this would be another billion dollar film. When Manifold concluded that it wouldn't, I asked whether it would reach half a billion:
@/SimonGrayson/will-joker-folie-a-deux-gross-over
@/SimonGrayson/will-joker-folie-a-deux-gross-over-riaz031odg
The film has come out to poor reviews and disappointing opening. People are talking about it being an absolute flop. So now I'm asking whether the film will even make a quarter of a billion dollars.
The source of truth for this market will be the film's Box Office Mojo page here. The cutoff date will be 31st December - but if it's looking very close then I will wait for a week after that to see if the days up to the 31st are revised.
|
2024-10-07T13:24:16
|
2025-01-04T03:35:15
|
2025-01-04T03:35:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1oz3b4v1ng
|
Will the certification of the U.S. presidential election be delayed by more than 24 hours due to unrest or challenges?
|
This market will resolve YES if the certification of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, scheduled for January 6th, 2025, is delayed by more than 24 hours due to civil unrest (such as protests or riots) or procedural challenges (such as legal objections or contested electors). The market will resolve NO if certification is completed within 24 hours of the original start time.
Examples of YES:
Certification is halted due to protests disrupting the session, and the delay extends beyond 24 hours.
Legal challenges or formal objections delay the certification process past January 7th, 2025.
Examples of NO:
Certification is completed within the 24-hour window, even with minor delays or protests.
There are objections or protests, but they do not cause a delay exceeding 24 hours.
More "J6" markets here:
January 6th: Congress Counts Electoral Votes
Feel free to comment any news or questions you have!
|
2024-10-07T13:02:18
|
2025-01-07T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T12:10:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4p2qqohw1y
|
Will the National Guard be deployed to assist law enforcement at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2025?
|
This market will resolve YES if the National Guard is officially deployed to assist law enforcement at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on or around January 6th, 2025, due to unrest or threats related to the election certification. Official deployment must be confirmed through statements from government officials or credible news agencies. The market will resolve NO if the National Guard is not deployed.
Examples of YES:
The National Guard is deployed and takes positions around the Capitol to help manage crowds, confirmed by official sources or news outlets.
Examples of NO:
The National Guard is not called upon, and law enforcement alone manages the situation without needing their assistance.
More "J6" markets here:
January 6th: Congress Counts Electoral Votes
Feel free to comment any news or questions you have!
|
2024-10-07T12:55:39
|
2025-01-07T20:59:00
|
2025-01-07T21:27:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-och6wt7bfi
|
Will at least one major U.S. city implement a curfew due to unrest related to the 2024 election by January 7th, 2025?
|
This market will resolve YES if, by January 7th, 2025, any major U.S. city (population of 500,000 or more) imposes a curfew in response to unrest, protests, or civil disturbances related to the certification of the 2024 presidential election. The curfew must be officially declared by city officials due to public safety concerns. The market will resolve NO if no major city imposes such a curfew.
Examples of YES:
A curfew is declared in cities like Washington, D.C., New York, or Los Angeles in response to election-related unrest.
Official announcements of a curfew by city governments due to large-scale protests or violence are confirmed by media reports.
Examples of NO:
No major city declares a curfew in connection to election protests.
Minor protests occur, but no public safety curfew is deemed necessary.
More "J6" markets here:
January 6th: Congress Counts Electoral Votes
Feel free to comment any news or questions you have!
|
2024-10-07T12:50:50
|
2025-01-07T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T12:11:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dv6xpzquhh
|
Will law enforcement use tear gas or other crowd-control measures during a protest at the Capitol on January 6th, 2025?
|
This market will resolve YES if law enforcement agencies use physical crowd-control measures such as tear gas, rubber bullets, or pepper spray to disperse protesters at or near the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2025. The market will resolve NO if no such measures are used.
Examples of YES:
Confirmed reports from news agencies or video footage show law enforcement using tear gas or rubber bullets to control the crowd.
Examples of NO:
Law enforcement manages the protests without using tear gas, rubber bullets, or similar tools.
Protests are peaceful, requiring no physical crowd control measures.
More "J6" markets here:
January 6th: Congress Counts Electoral Votes
Feel free to comment any news or questions you have!
|
2024-10-07T12:43:35
|
2025-01-07T20:59:00
|
2025-01-15T20:59:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9w8f5yq4so
|
Will a protest at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2025, result in a significant security breach?
|
This market will resolve YES if, on January 6th, 2025, there is a significant security breach at the U.S. Capitol. A "significant security breach" is defined as unauthorized individuals entering secured or restricted areas (e.g., the Senate or House chambers, Capitol offices) or physical damage to the Capitol building, such as forced entry, broken windows, or vandalism. The market will resolve NO if no such breach occurs.
Examples of YES:
Protesters break through security barriers and enter restricted areas like the House or Senate chambers.
Significant damage is inflicted on Capitol property, such as broken windows or forced entry, leading to evacuation.
Examples of NO:
Protests occur but are confined to public areas without breaching restricted zones.
There are no instances of vandalism, forced entry, or significant security breaches.
More "J6" markets here:
January 6th: Congress Counts Electoral Votes
Feel free to comment any news or questions you have!
|
2024-10-07T12:38:02
|
2025-01-07T20:59:00
|
2025-01-15T20:59:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bzhawkpqv9
|
Will Milton be at least a catagory 4 by the end of 10/8 EST.
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-06T20:51:16
|
2024-10-08T21:39:59
|
2024-10-08T21:39:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a7sfdmmab5
|
Will the USA federal government announce charges/investigation/indictment against Elon Musk by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if before the end of 2024, a body of the usa federal government announces it is investigating or indicting Elon Musk
Resolves NO if they do not make such an official announcement
Will still resolve YES if the indictment comes after Jan 1st 2025, as long as an official source confirms it is going to happen.
[image]
|
2024-10-06T20:31:03
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T20:02:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-esecmfbw9c
|
Will Republicans win the popular vote but lose the election?
|
This market will settle as YES if the Republican nominee for president in 2024 wins the popular vote but loses the election. This market will settle based on a consensus of credible reporting.
|
2024-10-06T15:09:51
|
2024-11-07T23:24:28
|
2024-11-07T23:24:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w3llwteb5n
|
Will there be a US presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025?
|
This market will resolve YES if there is a US presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025. Date will be determined by Eastern Standard Time.
|
2024-10-06T15:04:40
|
2025-01-20T12:05:09
|
2025-01-20T12:05:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iiialwbrn2
|
Will Donald Trump flip a state?
|
Will Donald Trump flip a state in the 2024 election?
Flipping a state means he wins a state won by Joe Biden in 2020.
Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count.
This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.
If the Republican nominee changes to be someone else, the question will be about the new nominee.
Multichoice version:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/bagelfan/how-many-states-will-trump-flip-in?play=true)Harris version:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/bagelfan/will-kamala-harris-flip-a-state?play=true)
|
2024-10-06T14:15:33
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T05:00:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vq7xnmbod1
|
Will Donald Trump flip Miami-Dade county in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to yes if Donald Trump wins Miami-Dade county in the state of Florida in 2024.
I will primarily use the NYT results to resolve this although I will wait for certification if the result is extremely close.
In 2020 Joe Biden carried Miami-Dade county by just 7 points, a far cry from Clinton’s near 30 point margin just 4 years earlier. Miami-Dade went on to vote for both Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis in 2022. Can Trump become the first Republican to win the county on the presidential level for the first time in 36 years?
|
2024-10-06T14:15:04
|
2024-11-05T18:23:52
|
2024-11-05T18:23:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2yn8p06w65
|
Will Barnier still be prime minister of France on December 15th, 2024 ?
|
(French time)
A demissionary prime minister (who has resigned but continues to hold the position temporarily) will still count as being prime minister for this market's resolution.
|
2024-10-05T18:54:47
|
2024-12-13T08:55:46
|
2024-12-13T08:55:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-886ep93xkt
|
Will one or more of Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, or Minnesota flip in the 2024 presidential election?
|
This market resolves YES if one or more of the following happens:
Texas votes for Harris
Florida votes for Harris
New Hampshire votes for Trump
Minnesota votes for Trump
If either Harris or Trump are somehow replaced as their party's nominee for any reason, this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee.
If none of these states flip, this market will resolve NO.
If the AP and Fox News both call all of these states in the presidential race and 48 hours pass without any retraction or relevant recounts being scheduled, this market will resolve based on those calls.
Otherwise, resolution will wait until the certification of the votes in January 2025. Any recounts after certification will not be considered.
Context:
[tweet]
|
2024-10-05T12:21:10
|
2024-11-06T00:06:00
|
2024-11-06T00:06:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2habh2zd6r
|
Will Lebanon get a president in 2024?
|
The presidency of Lebanon has been vacant since Oct 2022, when the previous president's term ended, and since when the Lebanese parliament has failed to elect a successor.
Will that change, before the end of the year?
Resolves YES on Lebanon getting a president in 2024, local time in Lebanon.
|
2024-10-05T02:57:54
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:08:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h7ak470qa8
|
Harris goes on 'Call Her Daddy' podcast before election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-04T13:58:53
|
2024-10-10T16:58:08
|
2024-10-10T16:58:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8i0gy3cnh6
|
Will Joker: Folie à Deux gross over $500 million worldwide by the end of 2024?
|
2019's Joker was a surprise sensation, grossing $1.079 billion at the box office.
The sequel came out today, pairing Joaquin Phoenix's Joker with Lady Gaga's Harley Quinn. Given the success of the first film the studio might have been expecting another billion dollar film but Manifold isn't expecting that to happen:
@/SimonGrayson/will-joker-folie-a-deux-gross-over
Since that market went live, the film has been released and the early word of mouth has been awful. Will the film even make half a billion?
The source of truth for this market will be the film's Box Office Mojo page here. The cutoff date will be 31st December - but if it's looking very close then I will wait for a week after that to see if the days up to the 31st are revised.
Markets for other figures:
@/SimonGrayson/will-joker-folie-a-deux-gross-over
@/SimonGrayson/will-joker-folie-a-deux-gross-over-riaz031odg
@/SimonGrayson/will-joker-folie-a-deux-gross-over-3znayefvh7
|
2024-10-04T13:54:25
|
2025-01-04T03:35:20
|
2025-01-04T03:35:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pi66fmztc6
|
Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet]
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-04T12:32:17
|
2024-11-06T03:49:45
|
2024-11-06T15:53:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fo2cx7uz6w
|
Will Donald Trump win >20% of votes in Philadelphia County, PA?
|
State-level markets = boring, played out. Manifold deserves to speculate on midwestern counties they haven't the first clue about.
For reference:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/pennsylvania
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html
|
2024-10-04T10:33:05
|
2024-11-13T21:49:29
|
2024-12-08T22:18:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5tqmglbx64
|
Will the Nate Silver $100,000 bet actually happen?
|
Nate Silver recently offered to bet $100,000 against Keith Rabois that Trump would not win Florida by 8 or more points:
[tweet][tweet]
Will this bet actually happen? Resolves YES when both parties confirm that the loser has paid the winner at least $100,000, or credible reporting confirms this fact.
Resolves NO when:
-Either party backs out of the bet before signing a legally binding contract (or something equivalent), and does not "rejoin" the bet within a week of backing out
-A party is able to avoid paying even after signing a contract.
-Discussion of this bet between Silver and Rabois dies off before the bet is finalized-i.e. one of them doesn't respond to or talk about the bet for a week.
- They keep talking about it until the election, but a contract/whatever isn't finalized and the loser doesn't pay out.
I will not bet on this market. If something happens that falls outside the stated conditions, I will use my judgement to resolve the market in the way that best matches the question in the title.
|
2024-10-04T09:58:29
|
2024-10-19T22:38:24
|
2024-10-19T22:38:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u0nk0u8ub8
|
Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet]
|
In a recent Twitter exchange, the VC Keith Rabois called Nate Silver a "buffoon" and claimed that the "minimum" Trump win in FL is 8 points (and 10-14 is "more likely"). In reply, Nate challenged him to a $100,000 bet.
This market resolves YES if Trump wins Florida by >8 points, and NO otherwise.
[image]This market parallels their bet (YES = Rabois wins, NO = Nate wins), but it's separately measuring the same question. E.g. if their bet never happens, that's irrelevant for this market (which resolves based solely on the election results).
The only relevance of the real world bet is that if there are any resolution disputes, the "spirit of the market" is based on the original intent behind the proposed bet.
If the result is close, I will wait to resolve until the official vote total has been certified by Florida (2020 example, announcement & totals)
"Winning by >8 points" is defined as (Trump votes) / (total votes) - ([other candidate] votes) / (total votes) > 0.08 for all other candidates.
Related market: @/Ziddletwix/the-grand-keith-rabois-twitter-parl
|
2024-10-04T08:25:04
|
2024-11-06T03:49:45
|
2024-11-06T03:49:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bxy563f1nn
|
Will Russian forces take Toretsk before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves to YES if there is broad consensus that the armed forces of Russia control all of Toretsk within its official administrative limits, for at least 24 consecutive hours, at any point before the end of 2024.
If that has not happened by the 1st of January, 2025 (local time), it resolves to NO. In case there is any ambiguity at that point as to whether the town is fully under Russian control or contested, a delay of 7 days will be added to ascertain what the exact status of the town was on the last 24 hours of 2024.
|
2024-10-04T05:26:37
|
2025-01-03T02:19:17
|
2025-01-03T02:19:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dq036q06gp
|
Will there be verifiable evidence of Trump XOR Harris touching a Bible from market creation to Jan 20, 2025 (incl)?
|
There must be verifiable video or photographic evidence created after this market's creation (Oct 3, 2024) of EXACTLY ONE of these candidates touching a Bible in this market's comment section at market close (11:59 PM Jan 20, 2025) to resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.
This market uses XOR logic. If verifiable video and/or photographic evidence of both candidates exhibiting this behavior exist in these comments during this market's time frame, this resolves NO.
I will be the arbiter of what counts as a Bible. I will be generally liberal with what this definition entails; I won't be an orthodox about it. Trump's "God Bless the USA Bible" would count, for example. If I am unable to come to an executive decision on this, I delegate this power to mods.
I am eligible to comment evidence. I won't trade in this market.
Kamala Harris has been documented as having met this condition. (https://manifold.markets/Quroe/will-there-be-verifiable-evidence-t#lvl4uqsd6b)
Donald Trump has been documented as having met this condition.
(https://manifold.markets/Quroe/will-there-be-verifiable-evidence-t#rmtnd2iqxx)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Window Closing Time:
The window closes at 11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Additional criteria for verifiable evidence of Trump touching a Bible:
A Bible that was physically manufactured after this market's creation and having Trump's signature present in a manner that could not be grafted onto it counts for this market.
If the manufacture date is not known, the signature must be dated after this market's creation to count. (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Additional Criteria for Verifying Trump's Signature:
Review multiple copies of the God Bless the USA Bible.
Signatures must exhibit notable differences between copies to confirm they are human-made and not generated by a robot. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Market Resolution: After the official closing time (11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025), the market will remain unresolved and locked for further research to determine the final resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment): Clarification on Evidence Date:
The current reading of market criteria states that the date of the evidence refers to when the touching of the Bible actually occurred, not when the evidence was posted.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment): - Girls Gone Bible evidence will be considered if verification occurs within a reasonable amount of time after the market closes.
The exact definition of reasonable amount of time remains purposefully ambiguous.
[manually removed an AI summary as it is now moot]
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - Evidence Submission Deadline: Only evidence submitted before the market's closing time (11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025) will be considered for resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-10-03T17:32:48
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-23T11:24:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-187sz910j2
|
Did Iran destroy numerous Israeli F-35 fighters in their ballistic missile strike?
|
Will confirmation emerge by the end of 2024?
|
2024-10-03T09:02:50
|
2024-10-15T09:43:02
|
2024-10-15T09:43:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4pu7br0q74
|
Will Jimmy Carter vote in person in the 2024 election?
|
This market will resolve YES if Jimmy Carter votes in person (including early in person voting) at a voting station in Georgia. Personally dropping off a ballot at a ballot drop box in person would also count. This market will resolve NO if on November 6th, there is no evidence Jimmy Carter voted in person. This market can also resolve NO early if it's publically reported that he mailed in his ballot, or died without voting.
Pictures or videos, or credible news sources, will be sufficient to resolve this market as YES.
|
2024-10-03T06:06:03
|
2024-10-17T06:12:54
|
2024-10-17T06:12:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kmz3y4fsq7
|
Will Israel launch an attack on the Kharg Island oil terminal in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-03T01:50:17
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:36:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fxztjot6xa
|
Will OpenAI release o2 (or o3) before 2026?
|
Resolved YES if OpenAI releases o2 by EOY 2025.
This also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a planning model similar to o1 but much better, that is widely believed to be o2, if they announce the end of the o[i] pattern. Just like if they release a model people call GPT-5 but call it ‘Orion’ officially and announce the GPT-N naming pattern ends.
See also:
@/saulmunn/will-openai-will-release-gpt5-befor
@/Soli/will-anthropic-release-a-model-that
@/biased/when-will-openai-release-o1
Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Market will also resolve YES if OpenAI releases o3 before 2026 (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-22-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve YES when:
A regular person from at least one major country (50M+ population)
Can pay to get access to
An o3 model (including o3-mini)
|
2024-10-02T21:31:16
|
2025-02-05T17:09:11
|
2025-02-05T17:09:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hxz3wh5c6k
|
Will Biden SAVE Harris from a humiliating defeat at the ballot box by mounting a HEROIC write-in campaign and WINNING?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-10-02T18:19:51
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-05T22:01:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nocdtc0gcw
|
Will a volcano begin erupting on Earth between Oct 3 - Oct 10, 2024?
|
I will check https://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm at some point during Oct 11, 2024 EST to see if any volcanoes are reported to have started erupting during this time frame. Resolves to date posted on the page.
Hotfix: This market can resolve early if the eruption condition is met. Dates are inclusive. Oct 3 and Oct 10 count. Resolves to condition of the page on Oct 11 when I first check.
I can bet on this market, but I can not bet after the YES condition is met.
[link preview]Context:
To summarize my chat log with it, I asked ChatGPT something to the effect of, 'Describe an event that would normally be considered a 6-sigma event that has a 75% or greater chance to happen over the course of the next week.'
I got:
"An event with around a 75% likelihood of happening globally in the next week, which would normally be considered a six sigma event, could be a volcanic eruption somewhere in the world.
While individual volcanic eruptions are rare and unpredictable, there are dozens of active volcanoes globally. On average, several eruptions happen each week. A volcanic eruption might seem like a rare, significant event, but given the number of active volcanoes and monitoring, it’s highly likely that at least one will erupt over the course of a week.
This event is independently verifiable by checking global volcano activity monitoring services, such as the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program or the Volcano Discovery website, both of which provide up-to-date information."
And with that seed of doubt planted, happy betting!
|
2024-10-02T17:45:42
|
2024-10-10T20:59:00
|
2024-10-11T04:05:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2czpyx8cmc
|
Will Trump win all seven swing states?
|
This is the same question as below, but for Trump only. Will Trump gain the electoral college in the following seven states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona?
https://manifold.markets/bagelfan/someone-sweeps-seven-swing-states
Will close the day before the election on midnight PST 11/4.
|
2024-10-02T12:03:24
|
2024-11-04T11:00:00
|
2024-11-06T17:08:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9uilbeza2n
|
Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of 2024?
|
The ceasefire agreement must:
1) Be confirmed by reputable media outlets, and
2) Last at least one week with no significant recorded violations of the ceasefire (I'm defining "significant violation" as a military action by either side that results in at least one death during the agreed upon duration of the ceasefire)
Since the ceasefire would need to last at least 7 days in 2024, the question will still resolve as NO if a ceasefire agreement is reached at the end of December, e.g. on December 28th.
If somehow a permanent peace deal is reached without a temporary ceasefire, then this question will also resolve YES.
EDIT (12/02/24): Jumping in to resolve some ambiguity in the resolution criteria. Since Israel and Hezbollah are currently under a ceasefire agreement, this question will resolve positively if there are 7 consecutive days with no recorded deaths during 2024. So, it could still resolve as YES even though major violations of the ceasefire have been reported.
|
2024-10-02T10:32:40
|
2024-12-26T22:35:33
|
2024-12-26T22:35:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5asjz9yaam
|
Will there be Israeli troops in Lebanon on January 1st, 2025?
|
Resolves YES if there are Israeli ground troops situated in Lebanese territory on January 1st, 2025. Resolves NO if there aren't any ground troops in Lebanon on that date.
|
2024-10-02T08:17:49
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2025-01-03T16:57:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-66titfsgih
|
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released in October?
|
PST. Released = "@Mira is able to access". API or web.
|
2024-10-02T00:15:17
|
2024-10-31T23:59:00
|
2024-11-01T22:44:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sa5gf7gli5
|
Will Tim Walz win the VP debate?
|
Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
This market will resolve to YES if Tim Walz wins the first VP debate. This market will resolve to NO if JD Vance wins the first VP debate.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the results are tied or if no VP debate occurs before November 4th. A tie would mean both candidates each have 50% (when rounded) of the poll votes.
This market will resolve according to the results of Ipsos first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its conclusion. If Ipsos does not release a poll before October 5th then an average of polls rated 1.9 or higher on 538 will be used.
|
2024-10-01T15:01:13
|
2024-10-01T23:02:00
|
2024-10-07T18:08:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-thfohxhnff
|
Will anyone say "AI", "Artificial intelligence" or "GPT" during the Vance vs Walz debate?
|
Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if, during the first debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle, anyone (including those not debating) says any of the following words or phrases:
AI
Artificial intelligence
GPT
Chat-GPT
Additional Rules:
Variations Included: Any pluralization, possessive form, compound words, or phrases that include any above words will count. For example, "Artificial general intelligence" and "AGI" would both count as YES.
Pronunciation: Mispronunciations that are clearly understandable and convey the intended word will count.
Exclusions: Indirect references, implications, or allusions to the listed words or phrases without explicitly saying them will not count.
Debate Timing and Conditions:
Debate Date: The debate must occur before November 4, 2024. If the debate is delayed but takes place before this date, the criteria still apply.
Cancellation or Withdrawal: If no debate occurs between Tim Walz and JD Vance before November 4, 2024, or if either candidate withdraws before the debate, this market will resolve to NO.
Resolution Source:
The determination will be based on the official broadcast recording of the debate as aired by CBS or any other official broadcaster (ads don't count).
|
2024-10-01T13:33:04
|
2024-10-01T23:59:00
|
2024-10-07T18:08:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ge5bdpwggx
|
Will JD Vance or Tim Walz say the word "racist" during the debate?
|
Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if, during the first debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle, either says the word "racist" or "racism". Any pluralization, possessive form, or compound words which include the word "racist" or "racism" will count.
Debate Timing and Conditions:
Debate Date: The debate must occur before November 4, 2024. If the debate is delayed but takes place before this date, the criteria still apply.
Cancellation or Withdrawal: If no debate occurs between Tim Walz and JD Vance before November 4, 2024, or if either candidate withdraws before the debate, this market will resolve to NO.
Resolution Source:
The determination will be based on the official broadcast recording of the debate as aired by CBS or any other official broadcaster.
|
2024-10-01T13:23:52
|
2024-10-01T23:59:00
|
2024-10-07T18:07:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-px1bogbfs7
|
Will the supreme leader of Iran (Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei) be killed before the end of 2024
|
The question will be resolved as yes if there will be a mass media report of the death of the supreme leader of Iran, no matter of cause
|
2024-10-01T13:16:58
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T20:38:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rsmruipc38
|
Will JD Vance say "Springfield", "Haitian", "Eating cats", "Immigrants in Ohio" or similar when debating Walz?
|
Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if, during the first debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle, J.D. Vance audibly and clearly says any of the following words or phrases:
Eating cats
Eating dogs
Eating pets
Eating pigs
Eating wildlife
Pet consumption
Animal consumption
Haitian
Springfield
Immigrants in Ohio
Migrants in Ohio
Illegals in Ohio
Undocumented in Ohio
Crisis in Ohio
Additional Rules:
Variations Included: Any pluralization, possessive form, compound words, or phrases that includes any of the words above will count. For example, "eating all of the cats" or "Haitians" would qualify.
Pronunciation: Mispronunciations that are clearly understandable and convey the intended word will count.
Exclusions: Indirect references, implications, or allusions to the listed words or phrases without explicitly saying them will not count.
Debate Timing and Conditions:
Debate Date: The debate must occur before November 4, 2024. If the debate is delayed but takes place before this date, the criteria still apply.
Cancellation or Withdrawal: If no debate occurs between Tim Walz and JDVance before November 4, 2024, or if either candidate withdraws before the debate, this market will resolve to NO.
Resolution Source:
The determination will be based on the official broadcast recording of the debate as aired by CBS or any other official broadcaster.
|
2024-10-01T12:04:42
|
2024-10-01T18:50:27
|
2024-10-01T18:50:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k0iimzx66o
|
Will a drone or missile launched from Iran successfully strike Tel Aviv by the end of 2024?
|
No proxy launches. Only those that originate from sovereign Iranian territory.
|
2024-10-01T09:22:08
|
2024-10-03T22:24:01
|
2024-10-03T22:24:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c2uegwllyv
|
Will Truth Social shares (DJT) fall below $10 by the end of October?
|
Truth social floated on the stock market in March, and the share price has fallen from a high of $79 to under $13 and now back to $16.50.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ
The company keeps losing money and doesn’t have the sort of revenues that would even justify this new lower valuation. Is it being propped up by Trump cultists and those who are happy to funnel their money towards him? Or is there some reason to think it might one day have value?
Will the share price fall below $10 by the end of trading on 31st October?
If the share price falls below $10.00 according to this page (not including out-of-hours trading) even temporarily, this market will resolve to YES. If the final trading day of October ends without this happening, the market will resolve to NO.
|
2024-10-01T06:48:51
|
2024-11-01T16:59:00
|
2024-11-04T20:46:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ioweevjcjw
|
Will the east coast USA port strike result in substantial additional restrictions on automation?
|
Resolves to YES if the resolution of the strike includes what I consider substantial additional restrictions on the ability to automate the ports in question.
Resolves to NO if this does not happen.
Market would be extended as needed until the situation in resolved.
I will use my own judgment on what 'substantial additional restrictions' means and am probably not going to answer hypotheticals. Continuing to use existing language restricting automation does not count.
Also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas?play=true
|
2024-10-01T04:57:08
|
2024-10-06T04:20:34
|
2024-10-06T04:20:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c0ke8prg7l
|
Will Destiny reach 836k subscribers in October 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
|
2024-10-01T03:58:33
|
2024-10-31T13:29:24
|
2024-10-31T13:29:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5l9msspmpg
|
[Metaculus] Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?
|
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/27800/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question will resolve as Yes if, before Dec. 31, 2024, at least one of the following three scenarios takes place:
A substantial land incursion by Israeli forces into Lebanon, marked by the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops and at least 10 armored vehicles in total anywhere in Lebanon on the other side of the Blue Line, with a sustained presence of at least 72 hours.
A substantial land incursion by Hezbollah into the Golan Heights or Israel, characterized by the deployment of at least 1,000 of its armed fighters in total on the other side of the Blue Line, with no requirements for a sustained presence.
A formal declaration of war by one or both parties.
If none of the criteria above have been met, this question will resolve as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-10-01T03:51:29
|
2024-10-20T02:14:33
|
2024-10-20T02:14:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fwnxe6gca4
|
Will Iran launch air strikes anywhere inside Iran by the end of 2024?
|
Artillery doesn’t count. Only large payloads delivered by rocket or dropped from an airplane.
|
2024-10-01T02:15:09
|
2024-10-28T07:43:36
|
2024-10-28T07:43:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tu9ckud3o8
|
Will Israel launch air strikes within 100 km of Tehran by the end of 2024?
|
Artillery doesn’t count. Only large payloads delivered by rocket or dropped from an airplane.
|
2024-10-01T02:12:23
|
2024-10-26T11:10:21
|
2024-10-26T11:10:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wdzb40evzy
|
Will Walz say "weird" when debating Vance?
|
Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
This market will resolve to Yes if Tim Walz says any of the following:
Weird
Weirdo
Weirdest
Weirded
Weirdness
Weirdly
Any pluralisation, possessive, or compound word which includes one of the words from above.
This market will resolve to YES if Walz says "weird" at any point during the first vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle. This could be at a later date if the debate is delayed. However, if no debate occurs between Walz and Vance before November 4th this resolves as NO. If either drops out before a debate this resolves as NO.
|
2024-09-30T17:35:52
|
2024-10-01T23:59:00
|
2024-10-02T06:37:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-snseg5gd3w
|
Will Harris lead in the final 538 election forecast?
|
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Whoever has a higher chance of winning per the final forecast, whenever that is released. Presumably the day before or on election day. If the answer is obvious I will resolve it November 4th.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
If tied 50:50, per the topline numbers, I will resolve this 50:50.
|
2024-09-30T11:10:17
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T07:46:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ja0ycjpcbt
|
Will the capitol building be breached on January 6, 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-30T09:37:18
|
2025-01-06T20:59:00
|
2025-01-07T12:02:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tedgm3d8be
|
If dockworkers union goes on strike, will the strike last more than a week?
|
Resolving on November 30th or sooner if we know the results.
|
2024-09-30T07:57:02
|
2024-10-04T06:28:57
|
2024-10-04T06:28:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vgguj7ayip
|
Will the Israelis bomb Iran before 2025?
|
Having now basically decapitated Iranian puppet Hezbollah, will the Israelis bomb Iran before the end of the year?
|
2024-09-30T06:06:07
|
2024-10-26T02:45:30
|
2024-10-26T02:45:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-127mnl6sbp
|
Will Israel directly attack in Iran before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves yes if attack occurred in Iran is assumed by most press to be an attack by Israel.
Otherwise resolves no. Assassinations do not count.
As recommended by @DanielFox9fff I am updating the statement to be the following:
Will an aerial attack (of any size) on Iran land/sea territory, assumed by most media outlets to be of origin from Israel, occur before the end of 2024?
|
2024-09-30T05:59:54
|
2024-10-25T17:31:06
|
2024-10-25T17:31:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kwaq5wr5zh
|
Will Naim Qassem (deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah) will killed by Israel in 2024
|
Not necessary needed clear evidence that he killed by Israel, even a speculation at the media will consider so.
|
2024-09-30T02:29:57
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T14:24:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tghj848kzk
|
Will presumptive Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine survive 2024?
|
Hashem Safieddine is considered the most likely candidate for the next secretary-general of Hezbollah, following the assassination of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
(There were reports that Safieddine officially became leader on Sep 29th, but these have not been substantiated)
Will he survive the year?
Resolves NO on credible reporting of Safieddine's death by reliable media sources in 2024, local time in Lebanon.
Resolves YES if he is still alive or if evidence of his death is sufficiently ambiguous. As this may be a judgement call, I won't bet in this market.
|
2024-09-29T15:28:37
|
2024-10-23T01:35:13
|
2024-10-23T01:35:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-11m59sy7ry
|
Will Erik Ten Hag survive the season? (Manchester United - Premier League)
|
Manchester United have just lost 3-0 at home to Spurs, reigniting the suggestions that manager Erik Ten Hag will be sacked.
Will he survive the season?
The market resolves to YES if he is still the manager for their last game of the season on 25th May 2025. This will be the case even if the club has already announced that he will be replaced following the end of the season.
The market resolves to NO if he is replaced as manager before the final game of the season.
|
2024-09-29T12:46:31
|
2024-10-29T05:53:41
|
2024-10-29T05:53:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7wbcrjewib
|
Will the Falcon 9 rocket fly again before November 5th.
|
Falcon 9's second stage failed to deorbit as planned. This has delayed future launches:
https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1840245345118498987
Will the falcon 9 fly again before November 5th?
|
2024-09-29T04:28:58
|
2024-10-07T14:34:14
|
2024-10-07T14:34:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1iirnx5oim
|
Will "Joker: Folie à Deux" (2024) receive a CinemaScore of B or above? ("Joker" received a B+)
|
This market resolves YES if "Joker: Folie à Deux" (2024) receives a B CinemaScore or higher, and it resolves NO if it receives a B- or lower. If for some reason a CinemaScore is not reported, this resolves N/A.
The original "Joker" (2019) received a B+ CinemaScore.
|
2024-09-28T13:44:05
|
2024-10-04T20:59:00
|
2024-10-04T21:38:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0bapulonqm
|
Will Manchester City top the Premier League table on December 2?
|
https://www.premierleague.com/tables
This market resolves yes if Manchester City is #1 in the premier league at any point on December 2nd, 2024.
|
2024-09-28T13:26:11
|
2024-11-25T18:58:21
|
2024-11-25T18:58:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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