id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-bbyaykp4bx | Will one candidate win exactly 6 out of 7 swing states? | Resolves yes if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win exactly 6 out of 7 of NC, GA, WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ | 2024-10-17T17:42:57 | 2024-11-08T01:55:59 | 2024-11-08T01:55:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e0a3yrcmre | North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea) between October 13, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A "military encounter" is ... | 2024-10-17T14:02:57 | 2024-12-31T07:30:15 | 2024-12-31T07:30:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jmrdhx4xvv | 🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025? | Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2025?
For This Market To Resolve YES, All Of The Terms In The Question And Their Meaning Posted Below Must Be Met. This Market Will Close At 5pm EST December 31st 2025 [11:59 PM (GMT +3)]
For This Market These Terms... | 2024-10-17T10:00:04 | 2025-01-28T22:30:00 | 2025-01-29T15:00:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3eej4qtpex | Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-17T04:02:41 | 2024-11-08T18:59:46 | 2024-11-08T18:59:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gop4ytjhgx | Will Trump win and nominate RFK to a cabinet position? | This market will settle as YES if Trump wins the presidency and he nominates Robert F Kennedy to a cabinet position by January 31, 2025. | 2024-10-16T14:24:52 | 2024-12-02T12:05:17 | 2024-12-02T12:05:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0y3va199ij | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-16T09:13:13 | 2024-12-30T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T12:04:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ahs26sicm | Will a Korean team win worlds 2024? (League of Legends) | Resolves yes if T1, GenG or HLE win worlds this year. | 2024-10-16T07:54:53 | 2024-11-02T15:42:47 | 2024-11-02T15:42:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aet2gu63bm | Will a home grown LLM developed by Chinese company be competitive by end of 2025? | Home grown means the model should be trained from scratch by a Chinese company. The computer can be outside of China, can use any sort of hardware, the data could from anywher, but the model should not be a distilled or finetuned version of open source models developed by other country, but should be well-known for tra... | 2024-10-15T15:25:46 | 2025-01-06T15:06:42 | 2025-01-06T15:06:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wpfswsm0z7 | Will Donald Trump provoke another deadly riot before January 21st 2025? | Question: Will Donald Trump publicly provoke another deadly riot in the United States before January 21st, 2025?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve to "YES" if, after this question opens, but before 12:00 AM Pacific Time, January 21st, 2025, Donald Trump makes a public statement that provokes a group of ... | 2024-10-15T11:31:31 | 2025-01-21T23:59:00 | 2025-01-22T08:56:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1vm0yc679d | Will Harris win the popular vote in the 2024 Election? | This question will resolve YES if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election.
Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-win-the-popular-v-nkvd5qs9lh?play=true) | 2024-10-15T04:20:35 | 2024-11-27T16:20:37 | 2024-11-27T16:20:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c8ok9bc4g5 | Will Trump declare victory on election night 2024? | David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, told Axios,
It is a near guarantee that Donald Trump will declare victory the night of Nov. 5 and the margin won't matter — it won't matter whether he's accurate and he actually won, or whether he was defeated soundly
Will Donald Tru... | 2024-10-14T15:47:19 | 2024-11-06T12:24:16 | 2024-11-06T12:24:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3m9w75alh1 | Will GPT-4.5o launch before October 18th? | This will be resolved "Yes" if OpenAI announce GPT-4.5o, GPT-4.5, or model of better capabilities to the public by before Friday, October 18th.
Otherwise, this question will be resolved as "No". | 2024-10-14T01:22:59 | 2024-10-18T09:59:00 | 2024-10-18T17:30:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7kwamouf46 | Will Jimmy Carter live to be 100 ½ years old? | Resolves YES if Jimmy Carter is alive on 1 April 2025 EDT. | 2024-10-13T22:02:02 | 2024-12-29T15:40:55 | 2024-12-29T15:40:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-k85pxgla0i | Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025? | Will North Korea provide troops to help Russia with their battle against Ukraine? With least one contingent of over 100 troops, where they are physically within the borders of Ukraine's map before the February 2022 invasion. | 2024-10-13T15:21:21 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T12:29:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kgohxhrngm | Will the sun come up tomorrow morning? | [image]Judged from my personal perspective. | 2024-10-13T06:18:11 | 2024-10-14T12:53:23 | 2024-10-14T12:53:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2khv900wcx | Will one candidate win all 7 swing states? | Resolves yes if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win all 7 of NC, GA, WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ
Split Ticket says 51%
[tweet]Related
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MarkHamill/will-one-candidate-win-6-out-of-7-s) | 2024-10-13T00:06:01 | 2024-11-08T01:49:27 | 2024-11-08T01:49:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tr7ee2k4qb | Will starship ift 5 happen on 13th October? | Local time | 2024-10-11T14:28:57 | 2024-10-13T05:47:20 | 2024-10-13T05:47:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y8y1wwqtde | Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points? | Resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins New York state by 10.0% (or more).
See Polymarket for a market on the same value. | 2024-10-11T12:55:19 | 2024-11-07T11:59:00 | 2024-11-07T12:17:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c3m7baf0co | Will more people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election than voted for Donald Trump in 2020? | Dave Leip's numbers will be used for resolution. According to Dave Leip, 74,225,926 people voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election.
If more than 74,225,926 people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election, this market will resolve YES. | 2024-10-11T04:06:03 | 2024-11-22T04:07:58 | 2024-11-22T04:07:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8kyziml4si | Will Claude-3.5 Opus launch before October 18th? | This will be resolved "Yes" if Anthropic announce Claude-3.5 Opus to the public by Friday, October 18th.
Otherwise, this question will be resolved as "No". | 2024-10-10T21:47:05 | 2024-10-18T09:59:00 | 2024-10-18T17:30:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d6u75onzca | Will NYT publish The Needle with a live national forecast on November 5? | The iconic/infamous Needle was first introduced in the 2016 election night coverage with a live forecast of the presidential winner. In 2020 it returned with the live forecast of 3 swing states but not the national electoral winner.
In what form will it return this November? I will resolve Yes if The Needle returns A... | 2024-10-10T19:31:54 | 2024-11-05T17:24:12 | 2024-11-05T17:24:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7jo2f8ibbb | Will an AI-generated film win an Oscar in 2025? | https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1844522693464555534
Rules: Film must consist only of AI-generated visuals. Can be lightly edited. Can have non-AI audio.
Rules are indicative only and subject to change. | 2024-10-10T18:26:32 | 2025-03-05T10:00:29 | 2025-03-05T10:00:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gpliums06q | Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | Original title: Will a New York team win the World Series?
Resolves YES if the New York Yankees or New York Mets win the World Series. Will resolve YES right away if the Yankees and Mets both win their League Championship Series, and will resolve NO right away if they both fail to win their League Championship Series. | 2024-10-10T12:14:49 | 2024-10-30T20:52:29 | 2024-10-30T20:52:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0qoim8aj3u | Will entropy-based sampling improve Llama3.1 on reasoning benchmarks in 2024? | Entropy-based sampling (colloquially, "the shrek sampler") is a term for a new class of sampling methods for LLMs, intended to "simulate something similar to o1's CoT or [Anthropic's models] to get much better results using inference time compute."
https://github.com/xjdr-alt/entropix
This market will resolve YES if ... | 2024-10-10T10:40:21 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T09:22:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qu1c70mgso | Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020? | In 2020, Donald Trump got 74,223,975 votes.
In 2024 will Donald Trump get 74,223,976 or more votes?
Resolves to the NYT vote tally | 2024-10-10T08:26:02 | 2024-11-08T19:16:08 | 2024-11-08T19:16:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h1279tz37x | Will Rafael Nadal win his last professional tennis match? | On October 10, 2024, Rafael Nadal announced his retirement from professional tennis. He will play his final matches as part of Team Spain for the 2024 Davis Cup Final 8, taking place in late November.
For the purposes of this market, I make no distinction between singles and doubles matches. If his final match is a do... | 2024-10-10T06:14:08 | 2024-11-20T04:19:51 | 2024-11-20T04:19:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oqznalvnwx | Will Israel launch a full ground incursion into Syria before 2025? | I guess if Israel have more than 1000 soldiers in Syria that could ne "full invasion". But i am open to discussion.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The conquest of Mount Hermon by Israel will be considered a deal breaker and resolve the market as YES. | 2024-10-10T04:40:59 | 2024-12-09T02:18:15 | 2024-12-09T02:18:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-q9yydsauol | Will Bitcoin be 100 000$ in 1st of March 2025 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-10T01:37:19 | 2025-03-01T13:59:00 | 2025-03-03T12:48:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z811ljdxw7 | Will more people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election than voted for Joe Biden in 2020? | Dave Leip's numbers will be used for resolution. According to Dave Leip, 81,286,454 people voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential election.
If more than 81,286,454 people vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election, this market will resolve YES. | 2024-10-10T01:16:15 | 2024-12-11T19:53:13 | 2024-12-11T19:53:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eu5xolxr1z | Will Joker: Folie à Deux receive an Oscar nomination? | Will Joker 2 get an Oscar nomination for the 2025 Academy Awards?
This market will close the night before nominations are announced. | 2024-10-09T17:07:29 | 2025-01-16T23:59:00 | 2025-01-23T07:03:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0brbofhekn | Will Austria form a government by February 2025? | Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if a new Austrian government is officially formed and sworn in by the Austrian President before January 31, 2025, 23:59 CET. This includes the appointment of a Chancellor and a full cabinet of ministers, followed by an official swearing-in ceremony. Official announ... | 2024-10-09T12:27:59 | 2025-02-01T12:02:13 | 2025-02-01T12:02:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d7rjq6yni2 | Will Chrome os reach 2.50% market share by the end of the year | acording to https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202311-202411
Update 2024-19-12 (PST): Market will close on December 25
Update 2024-22-12 (PST): Market will resolve based on ChromeOS market share percentage on December 31st, not December 25th. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update... | 2024-10-09T11:33:11 | 2024-12-24T14:00:00 | 2024-12-25T00:11:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fiis1vxkig | Will Hurricane Milton be the costliest hurricane in recorded history? | Resolves YES if nominal property damages meet or exceed US$125 billion* according to the soonest official NOAA median estimate.
*$125 billion is the record set by both Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Harvey. If Hurricane Helene is found by NOAA to exceed $125 billion in damages, Hurricane Milton must additionally meet... | 2024-10-08T19:35:43 | 2025-02-09T16:04:30 | 2025-02-09T16:04:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ju9lt8d7k1 | Has Hurricane Helene led to “a literal dam of bodies”? | Manifold user @Mlt asserts that FEMA has not done anything to help North Carolina and also that there is a literal dam of bodies right now of people that were killed in the hurricane and flooding. Since this is a betting website, I thought it would be appropriate to wager mana on the result.
Makayla has offered two pi... | 2024-10-08T18:29:06 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:32:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rzgsad2cj9 | Will there be at least 4 decisive classical games in the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Resolves YES if there are four or more decisive (non-drawn) games in the classical (not including tiebreaks) portion of the World Chess Championship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024), or NO if there are three or less. Also resolves NO if a new world chess championship does not start before 2... | 2024-10-08T16:24:02 | 2024-12-09T06:29:58 | 2024-12-09T06:29:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ckgc3vch43 | Will Discord get unbanned in Russia before 2025? | Discord just got banned by Roskomnadzor in Russia. Which was unexpected by a general public. And which is kind of insane...
This was covered by many news agencies, including ТАСС
https://tass.ru/ekonomika/22073811
Resolves YES if Discord is considered unblocked according to at least 3 credible media sources. | 2024-10-08T16:13:10 | 2025-01-01T04:16:30 | 2025-01-01T04:16:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jd13wqh2cw | Destiny releases his J6-manifesto before November | I will use Miami timezone if it's close. | 2024-10-08T11:47:47 | 2024-10-31T22:00:00 | 2024-11-01T01:05:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uj3hqoioir | Will there be a 5th Starship launch on or before October 15? | Resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before the specified date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is def... | 2024-10-08T07:50:18 | 2024-10-13T05:40:49 | 2024-10-13T05:40:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u8fclgzqyh | Hurricane Helene will be more costly than Hurricane Milton | This will be Resolved two weeks after Hurricane Milton has been downgraded below a Tropical Depression based on which storm has a higher estimated total cost of damages, according to Wikipedia (mana market edit: and a few other reputable sources, comparing each sources reporting of both storms. If there are overlapping... | 2024-10-08T06:56:03 | 2024-10-24T23:59:00 | 2024-10-25T10:32:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y5gjaxcobx | Will Harris lead in Nate Silver's Final election forecast? | https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Whoever has a higher chance of winning. NOT THE POLLING AVERAGE
Whoever has a higher chance of winning per the final forecast, whenever that is released. Presumably the day before or on election day. If the answer is obvious I will resolve i... | 2024-10-07T18:13:53 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2024-11-05T07:47:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g7arq2xcy7 | Will the president inaugurated differ from [Trump] the winner of the 2024 presidential election first called by AP? | Resolves YES if the first person called by the Associated Press (AP) as the winner of the 2024 US presidential election is different from the first person inaugurated as the US President for the term starting January 20, 2025. Otherwise NO.
Some examples of scenarios that could potentially cause this result include, b... | 2024-10-07T17:59:07 | 2025-01-20T16:26:06 | 2025-01-20T16:26:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c4ontsz71s | The Grand Keith Rabois Twitter Parlay: Will Trump win each of PA, MI, GA, & AZ? | In honor of Keith Rabois' prediction on Twitter (and inspired by Polymarket):
[image]This market resolves YES if Donald Trump wins each of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, & Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. It resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both... | 2024-10-07T14:26:34 | 2024-11-04T23:59:00 | 2024-11-12T20:47:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y2iuk8y3nq | Harris to pass Trump? | Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point from now until the beginning of election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
This includes if the percentage shown is equal but Harris is listed above Trump. | 2024-10-07T13:28:42 | 2024-11-04T21:59:00 | 2024-11-04T23:45:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8pjl85zr23 | Will Joker: Folie à Deux gross over $250 million worldwide by the end of 2024? | 2019's Joker was a surprise sensation, grossing $1.079 billion at the box office.
The sequel came out last week, pairing Joaquin Phoenix's Joker with Lady Gaga's Harley Quinn. Given the success of the first film, I asked whether this would be another billion dollar film. When Manifold concluded that it wouldn't, I ask... | 2024-10-07T13:24:16 | 2025-01-04T03:35:15 | 2025-01-04T03:35:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1oz3b4v1ng | Will the certification of the U.S. presidential election be delayed by more than 24 hours due to unrest or challenges? | This market will resolve YES if the certification of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, scheduled for January 6th, 2025, is delayed by more than 24 hours due to civil unrest (such as protests or riots) or procedural challenges (such as legal objections or contested electors). The market will resolve NO if certificati... | 2024-10-07T13:02:18 | 2025-01-07T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T12:10:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4p2qqohw1y | Will the National Guard be deployed to assist law enforcement at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2025? | This market will resolve YES if the National Guard is officially deployed to assist law enforcement at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on or around January 6th, 2025, due to unrest or threats related to the election certification. Official deployment must be confirmed through statements from government officials ... | 2024-10-07T12:55:39 | 2025-01-07T20:59:00 | 2025-01-07T21:27:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-och6wt7bfi | Will at least one major U.S. city implement a curfew due to unrest related to the 2024 election by January 7th, 2025? | This market will resolve YES if, by January 7th, 2025, any major U.S. city (population of 500,000 or more) imposes a curfew in response to unrest, protests, or civil disturbances related to the certification of the 2024 presidential election. The curfew must be officially declared by city officials due to public safety... | 2024-10-07T12:50:50 | 2025-01-07T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T12:11:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dv6xpzquhh | Will law enforcement use tear gas or other crowd-control measures during a protest at the Capitol on January 6th, 2025? | This market will resolve YES if law enforcement agencies use physical crowd-control measures such as tear gas, rubber bullets, or pepper spray to disperse protesters at or near the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2025. The market will resolve NO if no such measures are used.
Examples of YES:
Confirmed reports from news ... | 2024-10-07T12:43:35 | 2025-01-07T20:59:00 | 2025-01-15T20:59:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9w8f5yq4so | Will a protest at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2025, result in a significant security breach? | This market will resolve YES if, on January 6th, 2025, there is a significant security breach at the U.S. Capitol. A "significant security breach" is defined as unauthorized individuals entering secured or restricted areas (e.g., the Senate or House chambers, Capitol offices) or physical damage to the Capitol building... | 2024-10-07T12:38:02 | 2025-01-07T20:59:00 | 2025-01-15T20:59:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bzhawkpqv9 | Will Milton be at least a catagory 4 by the end of 10/8 EST. | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-06T20:51:16 | 2024-10-08T21:39:59 | 2024-10-08T21:39:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-a7sfdmmab5 | Will the USA federal government announce charges/investigation/indictment against Elon Musk by the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if before the end of 2024, a body of the usa federal government announces it is investigating or indicting Elon Musk
Resolves NO if they do not make such an official announcement
Will still resolve YES if the indictment comes after Jan 1st 2025, as long as an official source confirms it is going to happe... | 2024-10-06T20:31:03 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T20:02:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-esecmfbw9c | Will Republicans win the popular vote but lose the election? | This market will settle as YES if the Republican nominee for president in 2024 wins the popular vote but loses the election. This market will settle based on a consensus of credible reporting. | 2024-10-06T15:09:51 | 2024-11-07T23:24:28 | 2024-11-07T23:24:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w3llwteb5n | Will there be a US presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025? | This market will resolve YES if there is a US presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025. Date will be determined by Eastern Standard Time. | 2024-10-06T15:04:40 | 2025-01-20T12:05:09 | 2025-01-20T12:05:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iiialwbrn2 | Will Donald Trump flip a state? | Will Donald Trump flip a state in the 2024 election?
Flipping a state means he wins a state won by Joe Biden in 2020.
Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count.
This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.
If the Republican nominee changes to be someone e... | 2024-10-06T14:15:33 | 2024-11-04T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T05:00:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vq7xnmbod1 | Will Donald Trump flip Miami-Dade county in 2024? | This market will resolve to yes if Donald Trump wins Miami-Dade county in the state of Florida in 2024.
I will primarily use the NYT results to resolve this although I will wait for certification if the result is extremely close.
In 2020 Joe Biden carried Miami-Dade county by just 7 points, a far cry from Clinto... | 2024-10-06T14:15:04 | 2024-11-05T18:23:52 | 2024-11-05T18:23:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2yn8p06w65 | Will Barnier still be prime minister of France on December 15th, 2024 ? | (French time)
A demissionary prime minister (who has resigned but continues to hold the position temporarily) will still count as being prime minister for this market's resolution. | 2024-10-05T18:54:47 | 2024-12-13T08:55:46 | 2024-12-13T08:55:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-886ep93xkt | Will one or more of Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, or Minnesota flip in the 2024 presidential election? | This market resolves YES if one or more of the following happens:
Texas votes for Harris
Florida votes for Harris
New Hampshire votes for Trump
Minnesota votes for Trump
If either Harris or Trump are somehow replaced as their party's nominee for any reason, this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee... | 2024-10-05T12:21:10 | 2024-11-06T00:06:00 | 2024-11-06T00:06:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2habh2zd6r | Will Lebanon get a president in 2024? | The presidency of Lebanon has been vacant since Oct 2022, when the previous president's term ended, and since when the Lebanese parliament has failed to elect a successor.
Will that change, before the end of the year?
Resolves YES on Lebanon getting a president in 2024, local time in Lebanon. | 2024-10-05T02:57:54 | 2025-01-01T04:59:00 | 2025-01-01T12:08:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h7ak470qa8 | Harris goes on 'Call Her Daddy' podcast before election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-04T13:58:53 | 2024-10-10T16:58:08 | 2024-10-10T16:58:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8i0gy3cnh6 | Will Joker: Folie à Deux gross over $500 million worldwide by the end of 2024? | 2019's Joker was a surprise sensation, grossing $1.079 billion at the box office.
The sequel came out today, pairing Joaquin Phoenix's Joker with Lady Gaga's Harley Quinn. Given the success of the first film the studio might have been expecting another billion dollar film but Manifold isn't expecting that to happen:
... | 2024-10-04T13:54:25 | 2025-01-04T03:35:20 | 2025-01-04T03:35:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pi66fmztc6 | Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet] | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-04T12:32:17 | 2024-11-06T03:49:45 | 2024-11-06T15:53:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fo2cx7uz6w | Will Donald Trump win >20% of votes in Philadelphia County, PA? | State-level markets = boring, played out. Manifold deserves to speculate on midwestern counties they haven't the first clue about.
For reference:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/pennsylvania
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html | 2024-10-04T10:33:05 | 2024-11-13T21:49:29 | 2024-12-08T22:18:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5tqmglbx64 | Will the Nate Silver $100,000 bet actually happen? | Nate Silver recently offered to bet $100,000 against Keith Rabois that Trump would not win Florida by 8 or more points:
[tweet][tweet]
Will this bet actually happen? Resolves YES when both parties confirm that the loser has paid the winner at least $100,000, or credible reporting confirms this fact.
Resolves NO when... | 2024-10-04T09:58:29 | 2024-10-19T22:38:24 | 2024-10-19T22:38:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u0nk0u8ub8 | Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [Nate Silver $100k Twitter Bet] | In a recent Twitter exchange, the VC Keith Rabois called Nate Silver a "buffoon" and claimed that the "minimum" Trump win in FL is 8 points (and 10-14 is "more likely"). In reply, Nate challenged him to a $100,000 bet.
This market resolves YES if Trump wins Florida by >8 points, and NO otherwise.
[image]This market ... | 2024-10-04T08:25:04 | 2024-11-06T03:49:45 | 2024-11-06T03:49:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bxy563f1nn | Will Russian forces take Toretsk before the end of 2024? | Resolves to YES if there is broad consensus that the armed forces of Russia control all of Toretsk within its official administrative limits, for at least 24 consecutive hours, at any point before the end of 2024.
If that has not happened by the 1st of January, 2025 (local time), it resolves to NO. In case there is an... | 2024-10-04T05:26:37 | 2025-01-03T02:19:17 | 2025-01-03T02:19:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dq036q06gp | Will there be verifiable evidence of Trump XOR Harris touching a Bible from market creation to Jan 20, 2025 (incl)? | There must be verifiable video or photographic evidence created after this market's creation (Oct 3, 2024) of EXACTLY ONE of these candidates touching a Bible in this market's comment section at market close (11:59 PM Jan 20, 2025) to resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.
This market uses XOR logic. If verifiable video and/or ... | 2024-10-03T17:32:48 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-01-23T11:24:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-187sz910j2 | Did Iran destroy numerous Israeli F-35 fighters in their ballistic missile strike? | Will confirmation emerge by the end of 2024? | 2024-10-03T09:02:50 | 2024-10-15T09:43:02 | 2024-10-15T09:43:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4pu7br0q74 | Will Jimmy Carter vote in person in the 2024 election? | This market will resolve YES if Jimmy Carter votes in person (including early in person voting) at a voting station in Georgia. Personally dropping off a ballot at a ballot drop box in person would also count. This market will resolve NO if on November 6th, there is no evidence Jimmy Carter voted in person. This market... | 2024-10-03T06:06:03 | 2024-10-17T06:12:54 | 2024-10-17T06:12:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kmz3y4fsq7 | Will Israel launch an attack on the Kharg Island oil terminal in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-03T01:50:17 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-12-31T21:36:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fxztjot6xa | Will OpenAI release o2 (or o3) before 2026? | Resolved YES if OpenAI releases o2 by EOY 2025.
This also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a planning model similar to o1 but much better, that is widely believed to be o2, if they announce the end of the o[i] pattern. Just like if they release a model people call GPT-5 but call it ‘Orion’ officially and announce the G... | 2024-10-02T21:31:16 | 2025-02-05T17:09:11 | 2025-02-05T17:09:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hxz3wh5c6k | Will Biden SAVE Harris from a humiliating defeat at the ballot box by mounting a HEROIC write-in campaign and WINNING? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-10-02T18:19:51 | 2024-11-05T21:59:00 | 2024-11-05T22:01:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nocdtc0gcw | Will a volcano begin erupting on Earth between Oct 3 - Oct 10, 2024? | I will check https://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm at some point during Oct 11, 2024 EST to see if any volcanoes are reported to have started erupting during this time frame. Resolves to date posted on the page.
Hotfix: This market can resolve early if the eruption condition is met. Dates are inclusive. Oct 3 and ... | 2024-10-02T17:45:42 | 2024-10-10T20:59:00 | 2024-10-11T04:05:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2czpyx8cmc | Will Trump win all seven swing states? | This is the same question as below, but for Trump only. Will Trump gain the electoral college in the following seven states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona?
https://manifold.markets/bagelfan/someone-sweeps-seven-swing-states
Will close the day before the election on mi... | 2024-10-02T12:03:24 | 2024-11-04T11:00:00 | 2024-11-06T17:08:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9uilbeza2n | Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of 2024? | The ceasefire agreement must:
1) Be confirmed by reputable media outlets, and
2) Last at least one week with no significant recorded violations of the ceasefire (I'm defining "significant violation" as a military action by either side that results in at least one death during the agreed upon duration of the ceasefir... | 2024-10-02T10:32:40 | 2024-12-26T22:35:33 | 2024-12-26T22:35:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5asjz9yaam | Will there be Israeli troops in Lebanon on January 1st, 2025? | Resolves YES if there are Israeli ground troops situated in Lebanese territory on January 1st, 2025. Resolves NO if there aren't any ground troops in Lebanon on that date. | 2024-10-02T08:17:49 | 2024-12-31T18:59:00 | 2025-01-03T16:57:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-66titfsgih | Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released in October? | PST. Released = "@Mira is able to access". API or web. | 2024-10-02T00:15:17 | 2024-10-31T23:59:00 | 2024-11-01T22:44:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sa5gf7gli5 | Will Tim Walz win the VP debate? | Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
This market will resolve to YES if Tim Walz wins the first VP debate. This market will resolve to NO if JD Vance wins the first VP debate.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the results are tied ... | 2024-10-01T15:01:13 | 2024-10-01T23:02:00 | 2024-10-07T18:08:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-thfohxhnff | Will anyone say "AI", "Artificial intelligence" or "GPT" during the Vance vs Walz debate? | Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if, during the first debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle, anyone (including those not debating) says any of the fo... | 2024-10-01T13:33:04 | 2024-10-01T23:59:00 | 2024-10-07T18:08:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ge5bdpwggx | Will JD Vance or Tim Walz say the word "racist" during the debate? | Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if, during the first debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle, either says the word "racist" or "racism". Any pluraliza... | 2024-10-01T13:23:52 | 2024-10-01T23:59:00 | 2024-10-07T18:07:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-px1bogbfs7 | Will the supreme leader of Iran (Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei) be killed before the end of 2024 | The question will be resolved as yes if there will be a mass media report of the death of the supreme leader of Iran, no matter of cause | 2024-10-01T13:16:58 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T20:38:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rsmruipc38 | Will JD Vance say "Springfield", "Haitian", "Eating cats", "Immigrants in Ohio" or similar when debating Walz? | Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if, during the first debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance in the 2024 election cycle, J.D. Vance audibly and clearly says any of the following... | 2024-10-01T12:04:42 | 2024-10-01T18:50:27 | 2024-10-01T18:50:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k0iimzx66o | Will a drone or missile launched from Iran successfully strike Tel Aviv by the end of 2024? | No proxy launches. Only those that originate from sovereign Iranian territory. | 2024-10-01T09:22:08 | 2024-10-03T22:24:01 | 2024-10-03T22:24:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c2uegwllyv | Will Truth Social shares (DJT) fall below $10 by the end of October? | Truth social floated on the stock market in March, and the share price has fallen from a high of $79 to under $13 and now back to $16.50.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ
The company keeps losing money and doesn’t have the sort of revenues that would even justify this new lower valuation. Is it being p... | 2024-10-01T06:48:51 | 2024-11-01T16:59:00 | 2024-11-04T20:46:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ioweevjcjw | Will the east coast USA port strike result in substantial additional restrictions on automation? | Resolves to YES if the resolution of the strike includes what I consider substantial additional restrictions on the ability to automate the ports in question.
Resolves to NO if this does not happen.
Market would be extended as needed until the situation in resolved.
I will use my own judgment on what 'substantial ad... | 2024-10-01T04:57:08 | 2024-10-06T04:20:34 | 2024-10-06T04:20:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c0ke8prg7l | Will Destiny reach 836k subscribers in October 2024? | Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page | 2024-10-01T03:58:33 | 2024-10-31T13:29:24 | 2024-10-31T13:29:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5l9msspmpg | [Metaculus] Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024? | Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/27800/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question will resolve as Yes if, before Dec. 31, 2024, at least one of the following three scenarios takes p... | 2024-10-01T03:51:29 | 2024-10-20T02:14:33 | 2024-10-20T02:14:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fwnxe6gca4 | Will Iran launch air strikes anywhere inside Iran by the end of 2024? | Artillery doesn’t count. Only large payloads delivered by rocket or dropped from an airplane. | 2024-10-01T02:15:09 | 2024-10-28T07:43:36 | 2024-10-28T07:43:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tu9ckud3o8 | Will Israel launch air strikes within 100 km of Tehran by the end of 2024? | Artillery doesn’t count. Only large payloads delivered by rocket or dropped from an airplane. | 2024-10-01T02:12:23 | 2024-10-26T11:10:21 | 2024-10-26T11:10:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wdzb40evzy | Will Walz say "weird" when debating Vance? | Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are currently scheduled to debate on October 1, in an event hosted by CBS. Join our watch party!
This market will resolve to Yes if Tim Walz says any of the following:
Weird
Weirdo
Weirdest
Weirded
Weirdness
Weirdly
Any pluralisation, possessive, or compound word which includes one of th... | 2024-09-30T17:35:52 | 2024-10-01T23:59:00 | 2024-10-02T06:37:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-snseg5gd3w | Will Harris lead in the final 538 election forecast? | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Whoever has a higher chance of winning per the final forecast, whenever that is released. Presumably the day before or on election day. If the answer is obvious I will resolve it November 4th.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
If tied 50:50, per the topline numbers, I ... | 2024-09-30T11:10:17 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2024-11-05T07:46:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ja0ycjpcbt | Will the capitol building be breached on January 6, 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-30T09:37:18 | 2025-01-06T20:59:00 | 2025-01-07T12:02:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tedgm3d8be | If dockworkers union goes on strike, will the strike last more than a week? | Resolving on November 30th or sooner if we know the results. | 2024-09-30T07:57:02 | 2024-10-04T06:28:57 | 2024-10-04T06:28:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vgguj7ayip | Will the Israelis bomb Iran before 2025? | Having now basically decapitated Iranian puppet Hezbollah, will the Israelis bomb Iran before the end of the year? | 2024-09-30T06:06:07 | 2024-10-26T02:45:30 | 2024-10-26T02:45:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-127mnl6sbp | Will Israel directly attack in Iran before the end of 2024? | Resolves yes if attack occurred in Iran is assumed by most press to be an attack by Israel.
Otherwise resolves no. Assassinations do not count.
As recommended by @DanielFox9fff I am updating the statement to be the following:
Will an aerial attack (of any size) on Iran land/sea territory, assumed by most media outle... | 2024-09-30T05:59:54 | 2024-10-25T17:31:06 | 2024-10-25T17:31:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kwaq5wr5zh | Will Naim Qassem (deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah) will killed by Israel in 2024 | Not necessary needed clear evidence that he killed by Israel, even a speculation at the media will consider so. | 2024-09-30T02:29:57 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T14:24:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tghj848kzk | Will presumptive Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine survive 2024? | Hashem Safieddine is considered the most likely candidate for the next secretary-general of Hezbollah, following the assassination of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
(There were reports that Safieddine officially became leader on Sep 29th, but these have not been substantiated)
Will he survive the year?
Resolve... | 2024-09-29T15:28:37 | 2024-10-23T01:35:13 | 2024-10-23T01:35:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-11m59sy7ry | Will Erik Ten Hag survive the season? (Manchester United - Premier League) | Manchester United have just lost 3-0 at home to Spurs, reigniting the suggestions that manager Erik Ten Hag will be sacked.
Will he survive the season?
The market resolves to YES if he is still the manager for their last game of the season on 25th May 2025. This will be the case even if the club has already announced... | 2024-09-29T12:46:31 | 2024-10-29T05:53:41 | 2024-10-29T05:53:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7wbcrjewib | Will the Falcon 9 rocket fly again before November 5th. | Falcon 9's second stage failed to deorbit as planned. This has delayed future launches:
https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1840245345118498987
Will the falcon 9 fly again before November 5th? | 2024-09-29T04:28:58 | 2024-10-07T14:34:14 | 2024-10-07T14:34:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1iirnx5oim | Will "Joker: Folie à Deux" (2024) receive a CinemaScore of B or above? ("Joker" received a B+) | This market resolves YES if "Joker: Folie à Deux" (2024) receives a B CinemaScore or higher, and it resolves NO if it receives a B- or lower. If for some reason a CinemaScore is not reported, this resolves N/A.
The original "Joker" (2019) received a B+ CinemaScore. | 2024-09-28T13:44:05 | 2024-10-04T20:59:00 | 2024-10-04T21:38:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0bapulonqm | Will Manchester City top the Premier League table on December 2? | https://www.premierleague.com/tables
This market resolves yes if Manchester City is #1 in the premier league at any point on December 2nd, 2024. | 2024-09-28T13:26:11 | 2024-11-25T18:58:21 | 2024-11-25T18:58:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
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